The draft entrance survey makes an eagerly awaited, and mildly abridged, return for 2024. I asked all the GMs a few questions about the upcoming draft and, of those who bothered to answer, all but one trusted me not to look at those answers. However, the delay in getting this up and out to you all is only partially down the need to track down the elusive password.
First up, for the third time in a row, it’s the ‘Predict the First Round’ round, with 5 points for an exact match, 3 for a close(ish) match and a single point if the player at least went in the first round, but you weren’t that close. Kelkowski comes into the 2024 on the back of winning in 2022 and jointly winning in 2023. Will they make it a three-peat? There are two other pertinent records – only once before has someone got all ten players that were taken in the first round right, and the most points anyone has got is 33, by Kelkowski in 2022. Will those come into play, or does Checkhov’s meaningless draft survey gun mean nothing to me? Read on…
There we have it. Perhaps a measure of how locked in this draft was, with some clear talent at the top and then a whole load of shit no one wanted later on. Three GMs beat the old record, while the Bombermen named all 10 players to go in the first round. But our 2024 draft prediction champ is Chris of the Hard, narrowly pipping perennial draft prognosticator Ian, of Kelkowksi fame.
A handful of minor observations – Tamworth having 2 QBs in the first round, which I don’t think has ever happened; Losers had Corum as the first RB going, when he was actually the third at slot 2.05; everyone nailed the first overall pick, which weasn’t difficult, and all but one Nabers and Odunze in either second or third, with the Brees thinking Worthy would make it to third on the back of being drafted by the Chiefs; the Hurricanes were the only team to think a defensive player was going in the first round, and they doubled down on that; and finally, TT thought Troy Franklin was going 5th to the Brees, when actually he went 28th to Kelkowski. Would love to know where that came from.
2) If everything breaks right for you, who would you come away with with each of your first 5 picks? Be realistic, no picking the top 5 players in the draft.
Last year there was plenty of delusion – from the Bombermen thinking Anthony Richardson might fall to the top of the fifth round (actually 1.07), to other people thinking players would fall later in the draft too (but none were quite as optimistic as the Bombermen). Let’s see if anyone was more realistic this time?
Starting with the TamworthTwo…
Pretty reasonable, really. Except failing to nominate players for the later picks. And even managed to get Javon Baker a round later than hoped for. Not massively far out on the top two wide receivers – the exercise is about ‘if everything breaks right for you’ after all, rather than being 100% realistic.
Right, onto the Losers…
Again, a pretty reasonable set of hopes there – maybe even pessimistic given some of the desired players didn’t go until later. The Losers gave up Brandin Cooks to the Dungeoneers in order to take Kneeland at 5.01, but obviously that slot wasn’t on the prediction list.
Someone who definitely wasn’t pessimistic in their approach to this exercise was Neil of the Hurricanes. It’s possible to argue he was a little too optimistic, mind you.
I mean, there’s ‘everything breaking right for you’ and a near universal top 3 pick falling to 6th, the consensus top running back falling to the middle of the second, and possibly the two most desirable defensive players falling to the third and fourth rounds. But hey, we can all dream, I suppose.
Falling somewhere in between reasonable and in-what-world-was-that-going-to-happen is the Hard.
It might be interesting in the locker room for Odunze to find out Nabers was the desired pick, but calling the Bowers trade and pick was good. The delusion comes in when we look at that last pick – Byron Murphy. He turned out to be the first defensive player taken as 2.01 and I struggle to imagine a world where he made it out of round 2, let alone the end of the fourth.
The Brees! They clearly didn’t really know what they wanted beyond the first round, where they were just pipped…
Disappointing lack of thought when it came to the later picks, and disappointing they didn’t leap on Corley in the third, for reasons we’ll come to, when we talk about the Bombermen. But that will have to wait.
Why? Because now it’s time for the Bombermen.
Three of the four picks they missed out on were players taken only a few picks earlier, perhaps most notably Edgerin Cooper, being sniped at 3.05. Marshawn Lloyd is the only stretch there. In a better draft class for RBs I could see him falling further, but it was rather a weak one so it’s understandable he went where he did.
Finally it’s Kelkowski, who were probably just as frustrated as the Bombermen with the amount of sniping that went on…
Missed out on two players by one slot, though it’s possible they got the better fantasy QB in Daniels than the man they’d hoped for at 2.08.
Q3-5) Stuff ’bout tradin’, innit.
It’s at this point that we bid a fond farewell to Kelkowski, who declined to answer any further questions.
What we wanted to know was how many trades would take place, which pick would be the earliest traded, and any other comments. So here we go:
Very optimistic that there would be 10 trades. As it turned out, there were but 4. Chris was, perhaps unsurprisingly, most accurate in which pick would be the first to go, given he traded for 1.04 using 1.10. The Hurricanes got the number of trades right, while the Bombermen were kind of vaguely vindicated with the comments.
Q6) Which position are you most keen to pick up to be a contributor for this season?
Looks like the Losers and Tamworth did the best at fulfilling what they were hoping for, with everyone else getting a bit of it but perhaps not being fully satisfied with the hauls.
Q7) Which player are you most keen to get/most likely to reach for?
It’s not often I am filled with utter contempt for my fellow GMs – once or twice a week max (not Max), during the offseason is all, but I have been seething since I read some of these responses.
This question, on the questionnaire, has the following small print (now appearing as big print):
This is about the player your most likely to take too early just in case someone else gets in there before you. You shouldn’t name anyone you think will go in the first 2 rounds.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE WAY ODUNZE COULD REMOTELY HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED A REACH IS IF HE WENT 1 OVERALL, AND EVEN THEN THERE WOULD BE WAYS TO JUSTIFY IT.
I suppose another way might have been to spend a shit load of picks to move up and get him, but then that’s an overpay, not a reach. Ben, Stew and Neil need to look at the other players named, read that small print, and think long and hard about what they’ve done wrong.
Q8) Who will be the first QB taken, and with which pick?
Possibly the most boring question (hotly contested title) with the Bombermen and Brees being equally close and the Hurricanes being way off.
I’ve said Williams at 1.09 above, but I would not be surprised if Daniels was the one to go because of the running threat. I also don’t feel great about him going in the first round. I feel like I’m out of step with the league’s ratings of QBs. I don’t think there’s great value in taking one in the first, but it feels like someone always goes earlier than I expect.
Bombermen GM, Benjamin Hendy
Q9) Who will be the first defensive player taken and when will they go?
No one got the player, but no one was that far out slot-wise…
Probably Laiatu Latu, on the basis of him being the first defensive player taken in the actual draft. Probably 2.04?
Hard GM, Chris Braithwaite
Laiatu Latu – we quite often follow NFL draft order and he was the first one off the board landing in a spot where he’ll be able to rush the passer as a primary threat. Late in the second, I was going to say 19th, but that’s my pick and I won’t be taking him, so 18th.
Losers GM, David Slater
Q10-12) Winners, Losers and Self-Assessment
Some comments on winners:
Probably Adam, on the basis of having the #1 pick – Chris, Hard GM
Either Chris or Adam – two top 10 picks for Chris will give him a good chance to land two guys, and if Adam gets a good player who’s fallen at 11 (e.g. Jonathon Brooks) that’ll be a great looking opening – Dave, Losers GM
Adam makes a spectacular entrance by winning the draft, basically because he got Harrison jnr – Ben, Bombermen GM
Comments on losers (not Losers):
Goody. He doesn’t have a 1st round pick, has lots of holes and a tendency to reach – Chris, Hard GM
TT because they don’t have a first round pick and some of you don’t get that you should judge a team’s draft based on the capital they had coming in – Ben, Bombermen GM
And some self-assessment comments:
Near the bottom – always do due to fewer picks – James, Tamworth GM
Probably about 4th, unless I can swing a trade to get 2 of the top 4 – Chris, Hard GM
I’ve got the 9th pick, so I’m fighting an uphill battle – Slatz, Losers GM
Solidly mid-table – Ben, Bombermen GM
Q13) How long will the draft last?
The only question that matters, and it was closely fought this year with two GMs just 5 seconds apart, while the Bombermen did their best to elongate the draft as much as possible to almost twice as long as they had predicted.
So the Hard were closest by those extra five seconds.
It did not go unnoticed that the two closest guesses were basically 876 and 8765.
So there we have it. The entrance survey is over, and with no comments expressing frustration with any of the questions or the overall duration. Which was a pleasant surprise.
Another year, another title goes to Tim. Title Tim as the Division is now known. 10 seasons, 8 titles. And this year it’s a second title for Chris Braithwaite and Dyna Hard, who knocked off David Slater’s Dynasore Losers by 65 points. The 4th closest final was pretty much done and dusted after a 55 point victory in the first leg and then put their feet up for the second. Hard’s 392.645 is the 8th highest winning score. Pitiful really, but that’s all that was needed to knock off the challenge from Peter.
To join Chris in celebrating the victory is Buffalo Bills’ interception hero and LA Rams super bowl winning safety, Taylor Rapp…
I pulled together a quick file that can be used to work out final records based on results. It doesn’t do tiebreakers or anything, just overall final records. And it doesn’t sort teams into order either. It’s quite basic. But you can access it here.
It’s the middle of the season, so what better time to look back at championships past and see if there’s anything remotely interesting from a statistical point of view. And failing that, find some boring things from a statistical point of view to share.
We’ve all seen the records, of course, so there’s no need to regurgitate the results. Instead, let’s look at different numbers. Like, do teams score more points in the final now?
Errr…. No…
Teams that win the final are scoring less, while teams that lose the final are scoring… incredibly consistently (if we ignore the Brees in 2014). It’s good news for excitement – there’s only been one comeback victory (Dyna Hard, 2017) but at least there are closer matches. The second legs of the last three finals – 2020-2022 – have all been won by the team that lost the first leg, after both legs were won by the same team in five of the first 6 finals.
But how about the split of total points across the two legs?
Only two of the nine finals have had more points scored in the first leg than the second. Rather than getting used to each other and neutralising each others attacks, it seems that familiarity breeds explosive offense and an eye for the opponents defensive weaknesses. Or maybe that was a conclusion we could draw if these were actual teams actually facing each other, rather than random players unaware of the importance of their performance in the Dynabowl world.
We can also see, in the top chart, that total points rose to 2018 and have been falling since then. Someone who cares more would probably go back and check the scoring changes we put in place to see if they align.
I can be bothered to do one quick check though. There’s a ranked list of total points scored, per team, per season. Because there’s been an extra game since 2021, we can’t quite compare like for like, but for total points scored to the end of week 16, 9 of the top 20 team seasons have been after 2018, while 11 of the bottom 20 seasons have come in the same period.
Given there were five seasons in the ‘high scoring finals period’ (2014-2018) and only 4 since, this might indicate a slight drop in scoring overall. Especially as the 6 worst seasons were all between 2020 and 2022.
So there we have it – finals are more exciting (CLOSER GAMES) and less exciting (FEWER POINTS) than ever!
Seeding! Does it matter?
What I mean by that is, are the higher seeds more likely to win the title? Let’s take a look…
NB: Third/Fourth determined by third place playoffs
I’m kind of astonished that no one has looked at this before. The abject failure of the number 2 seed to do anything notable at any point is pretty crazy. It took until 2022 for the second seed to win a 2-game match-up (ie the final or 3rd place playoff). The first seed dominance of the past 4 years is also a surprise. In fact, the first seed has always won the 2-game match-up, and in 7 of those 9 years that has been against the number 2 seed.
The run of wins by number 3 seeds also seems like a bit of a surprise. However, in 2016, Kelkowski held the same record as the #1 seed Bombermen (and the #4 seed Hard), in 2017 Dyna Hard were a game behind the #1 seed Hurricanes (then Firebirds), but were league top scorers, 50 points ahead of the #1 seed, while in 2018 the number one seeds were the 13-0 Dyna Hard, who were destined to fail.
Just out of curiosity, I assigned 3 points for a win, 2 for runner-up, 1 for third and 0 for 4th. The number 1 seed gets 19 points, #2 gets 7, #3 17 and the fourth seed gets 11 points. That should really put things in perspective. Idle speculation and shit-stirring, but the top two seeds go to the winners of Peter and Tim. Guess what, 7 out of 9 #1 seeds have come from Tim, bookended by Peter (Losers in 2014, Brees in 2022).
Red for Peter, blue for Tim
Using the patented 3 for a win, 2 for runner-up, 1 for third scoring system, Tim clocks in with 33 points while Peter only racks up 21 across the nine years, but then with only two titles to show for it – both coming in years when the division managed to send 3 teams to the playoffs – that’s probably to be expected.
So back to the exam question – does seeding matter? Only in so much as the second seed was usually from Peter and they usually lost. What matters most is that the team come from Tim.
Double Hundreds
3 teams have scored at least 200 in both legs of the final, the Hurricanes (né Firebirds) in 2014, Champions in 2015 and the Dungeoneers in 2018. No teams have won the title without scoring 200 in at least one leg (though the Champions really pushed that in 2020, scoring 200.145 in the second leg), while only one losing team has managed to score 200 or more in a single leg of the final (the Tamworth Two in that same final against the Champions in 2020).
Regular Season Results Between Finalists
Every year, every team will play every other team at least once. Twice if they are in the same conference, once in the other conference, though since 2021 teams have had a second game against one team from the other conference.
The table below shows the match-ups in the final and the regular season record between the two teams.
Only once has the team winning the final not beaten their opponents at least once in the regular season. That came in 2019 when the Bombermen used the playoffs as a revenge tour. Having gone 11-2 in the regular season they beat Tamworth Two in the playoff semi-final before knocking off the Dungeoneers in the final – those were the only two teams to beat them during the regular season. Is this more impressive than Dyna Hard going 13-0 and then losing the playoff semi-final in 2018? Almost certainly.
What Can We Learn?
Want to win a title? If you make the playoffs, ideally be the first seed and, if not, be the third seed. Try not to be in Peter and make sure you beat your opponent at least once during the regular season, and score 200 in at least one game week.
First up, lets do a quick summary of how everyone thought they did. Here’s how we each rated our own draft (except Pete and Max):
Team
Rating
Comments
Brees
6
It was fine. Always going to be tough at 10th pick and no 3rd round pick. Missed out on a few players we wanted, but also think we got some decent picks on off and def
T2
6
Very few picks, and the offensive targets taken off the board early. Saying that, I did get a couple of my targets for D. So 8/10 on that side but 4/10 on the Offence.
Sadness
4
I’m not excited by any of the players I’ve drafted
Losers
8
Went better than I expected
Hurricanes
4
Average
Bombermen
9
Beyond trading a handful of magic beans for Bijan, I don’t think it could have gone much better really. Sure, there were some long shot running backs I’d been keen on picking up later who went earlier than I expected/hoped, but I think my top 7 picks all stand a chance of being starters by the end of year two and then I like the wildcards I picked up. I don’t have expectations for any of them to be starters, really, but as lottery tickets, I think they’re decent.
Kelkowski
6
Tried to trade with Neil for Bijan. Should have pushed harder. Besides that got some of my main targets but missed out on a couple I really wanted that just didn’t fall to me
Dyna Hard
8
I got Bijan which starts me at a 10. But I reached on Richardson, Downs (I think, I had him as a late 1st talent, but thought I could have got him in the 3rd) and Musgrave, which knocks a couple of marks off for me.
So that’s only Neil and Mike who think they didn’t do at least above average. We’ll see how that chimes with what the rest of the league thought.
As to players people missed out on, only one player got two mentions: Chase Brown. Beyond that, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter, Jalin Hyatt and Tyler Scott each got a nod.
I asked people about overall philosophy. A couple of people mentioned BPA, a couple mentioned focusing on need, and then we had a few people focusing on stocking up at different positions: QB (twice), RB (twice), WR (twice), TE, DE, DT and “all defenders”, so literally everything bar kicker and punter. Which is probably a) why everyone is relatively happy with their draft as we weren’t really competing with each other and b) why Pete ended up with a kicker and a punter.
Right, that’s enough for overview, let’s get on to where we slated each other’s picks. I’ve decided to do some tables even though LibreOffice is fucking useless with them.
Pete
As always, I’m starting with Pete because his team gets listed first and I don’t know why that is. I’m just bitter about always having to scroll right to the bottom of things to see my team.
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
1.02 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR (7 votes)
2.02 Kendre Miller RB (1)
Best value
Kendre Miller (4)
3.02 Marvin Mims WR (3)
Worst value
4.02 Zach Evans RB Marvin Mims (2)
5.02 Israel Abanikanda RB 5.11 Siaki Ika DT 5.12 Mazi Smith DT Kendre Miller (1)
Likely bust
Marvin Mims (5)
Kendre Miller (2)
Sleeper
7.02 Jordan Battle S (7)
8.02 Ethan Evans P (2)
Always a good start when your first 2 picks split votes for best player, and then your 2nd and 3rd picks are hailed as good value (although possibly a warning sign that you didn’t really get a standout pick). With pretty much every pick getting a vote for worst value, either that means it was a tough call to find bad value or you screwed up the whole draft. Jordan Battle seems to be well liked as a potential sleeper. So all in all, it seems a solid draft but probably unspectacular draft. And that’s what our ratings said: an average of 6, with a low of 4 and high of 8.
That’s reflected in the comments. If there was a word cloud it would say “safe”, “solid”, “good”, “decent” in big letters and not much else. JSN seemed to be his most controversial pick based on the comments, as a couple of people questioned taking him over Gibbs or looking to trade down (or at least questioned whether we should question it, which is far too meta at this point of the analysis). Given the absolute lack of trades and the general consensus that Pete is rebuilding, taking a WR seems sensible to me.
Ben and Stew
Reigning champions, do we think they are building a dynasty or, like Brees himself, are they destined to pad their stats for the rest of their career?
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
2.10 Bryce Young QB(4)
1.10 Zach Charbonnet RB (3)
Best value
8.10 BJ Ojulari DE Zach Charbonnet (2)
4.10 Myles Murphy DE 6.18 AT Perry WR Bryce Young (1)
Worst value
Bryce Young (4)
Zach Charbonnet (2)
Likely bust
Zach Charbonnet Bryce Young Myles Murphy (3)
No one
Sleeper
BJ Ojulari (4)
7.10 Ji’Ayir Brown S (3)
The analysis here is very simple. We loved Bryce Young and Zach Charbonnet, we thought that Zach Charbonnet and to a lesser extent Bryce Young were good value, we though that Bryce Young and to a lesser extent Zach Charbonnet were bad value, and we think that Charbonnet and Young will be busts. Or good. BJ Ojulari got 2 votes for best player but only 4 people thought he’d be useful, so I guess there was a pretty wide divergence of opinion on him. The voting seems to back up our nonplussed opinion of this draft, with an average of 4.9, with a high of 7 and a low of 2, against his own rating of 6.
The comments seem to flag up that its tricky having the #10 pick: 6 comments, and 4 mentioned the challenge of picking at 10. Won’t someone think of the poor champions? And hey, two people did! Interestingly one person (I think it was Slatz, but I can’t be arsed actually checking) referred to Bryce Young as a “low-upside QB”, which I think is a bit harsh. I see him more as a high downside QB, with his tiny frame, but if he stays healthy he could be Burrow or Herbert level.
Tamworth Two
He came into the draft with the least amount of capital, what did we think?
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
3.07 Tyjae Spears RB 4.07 Calijah Kancey DT 6.07 Luke Schoonmaker TE (2)
5.07 Emmanuel Forbes CB (1)
Best value
Luke Schoonmaker (5)
6.06 Adetomiwa Adebawore DT Tyjae Spears (1)
Worst value
Emmanuel Forbes (6)
Tyjae Spears (1)
Likely bust
Tyjae Spears (4)
Emmanuel Forbes (3)
Sleeper
7.07 Sydney Brown S (5)
8.07 SirVocea Dennis LB 9.07 Ventrell Miller LB (2)
I feel like its not looking good for Goody here. When your 6th round pick ties in the vote for best player, either you got the best steal since Tom Brady, or no one liked your early picks. Everyone agreed Schoonmaker was great value though. And everyone (bar one mad person who called him best player, but I thought Pete and his CB fetish didn’t vote?) thought Forbes was bad value. But Sydney Brown is another safety that we liked as a late pick.
Goody came out with an average of 4.5, with a high of 7 and a low of 1, against his own rating of 6. I think “divisive” is the best word for this one. One person called the draft “fucking amazing”, one person called it solid. But then three panned it, saying that it was “awful”, that there was a lack of contributors in the draft, and lots of contenders for worst value. But well done everyone for factoring in draft capital – pretty much everyone mentioned the lack thereof in their comment.
Mike
We’re four teams in and I’ve already run out of intro material. This is promising.
Kincaid seems pretty universally liked, while Sanders feels divisive – 2 calls for best player, 2 for best value, and 2 for worst value. The lack of mention of their 1st round pick until worst value feels worrying, but at the same time Flowers only taking away two votes in that category makes it seem like its possible that pick was fine, its just that they picked up better players later on. And Devon Witherspoon seems to be adored. If you all like him so much, why didn’t you pick him?
The grading supports the general positive vibes: an average of 7.4, with a high of 9 and a low of 4, against his own rating of 4. Yes, we all like the players that Mike drafted far more than Mike, who drafted them, did. He was the only person to outperform his own rating by more than 0.1, and did it by 3.4 points. Cheer up mate. Maybe some of these comments will help: “Well done Mike, you bastard.” “I like a lot of this.” “Took a few from me when I was lining them up.” “Considered and strong.” “Really solid middle section.” (I think those last two are still about the draft, but they might be a personal reviews)
Slatz
Slatz thought he was a big winner in the draft. Did everyone else think he was a loser?
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
1.09 Jalen Carter DT (3)
2.01 Devon Achane RB (2)
Best value
3.09 Michael Mayer TE (5)
4.09 Daiyan Henley LB 7.09 Will Levis QB (1)
Worst value
Jalen Carter (3)
Devon Achane Will Levis (2)
Likely bust
Devon Achane (5)
Michael Mayer (3)
Sleeper
Will Levis (4)
10.09 Ivan Pace LB (2)
Another interestingly divisive one. Carter heads up the list for best player and worst value, with Achane just behind him in both. Mayer gets the nod for best value but also solid consideration for most likely to bust. Depending who you ask, Will Levis is good value, bad value, a sleeper, or a freak who puts mayo in his coffee.
That all led to a very wide range of scores. An average of 5.6, with a high of 9 and a low of 1, against his own score of 8. One person called it a disappointing first 3 rounds, but one person said great early picks and then tailed off. One person called Achane a great pick, one called him a waste of a pick. One loved him getting Carter, one said it was bad value. One called it a bumper crop, one said he was picking players they weren’t interested in. If his draft was an equation, it’d all cancel out and just leave an equals sign.
Neil
I think its fair to say that Neil’s trade of the #1 pick is going to be a defining factor in this section.
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
5.05 DeWayne McBride RB (3)
2.09 Rashee Rice WR (2)
Best value
DeWayne McBride (3)
3.06 Chase Brown RB (2)
Worst value
4.01 CJ Stroud QB Rashee Rice Chase Brown (2)
3.01 Tyree Wilson DE (1)
Likely bust
Rashee Rice Chase Brown (4)
Tyree Wilson (3)
Sleeper
9.01 Jatavius Martin S (4)
None of the above (2)
I think at this point I should say that I haven’t looked at the results before writing this up, and I write up this section first before looking at the overall scores and comments. But I get the feeling Neil is going to be in for a rough ride here. He came into the draft with the #1 pick and the consensus best player he drafted was at pick 45. Chase Brown is oddly divisive. Remember two people called him someone they wanted and didn’t get. Maybe those two people are the two who voted him best value, and everyone else called him either bad value or a likely bust (or both). Maybe it was the same two people who absolutely loved him? Tyree Wilson doesn’t seem to be as beloved by us as by the NFL though. But we all seem to like some DeWayne McBride, even if all he’s taught me is that I just cannot type DeWayne right at the first time of asking.
I’m not sure if Neil’s scores are divisive or just have one outlier. He got an average of 2.7, with a low of 1 and a high of 8 (the next highest was 3), against his own rating of 4. Trading away #1 seems to be the focus of the ire here: most people mentioned that trade as a negative (and one person basically just typed F over and over again, which I assume wasn’t a positive). People also didn’t like his trade in the 6th round, but I think at least part of that is that people were allergic to trading in this draft. But three people said that they actually liked his picks. I think one person summed it up very nicely: “the picks he made were fine, the picks he didn’t make were awful.”
Benj
Benj gave himself the highest rating of anyone at 9, so lets see if we agree. He’s probably helped himself, because Benj is the first person so far to fail to skip the section marking his own draft. I can’t be bothered to try to take his ratings out of it though.
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
1.03 Jahmyr Gibbs RB (5)
3.03 Jalin Hyatt WR (2)
Best value
Jalin Hyatt (3)
4.03 Lukas Van Ness DE (2)
Worst value
Lukas Van Ness 6.12 Puka Nacua WR 2.03 Roschon Johnson RB (2)
6.03 Brian Branch S 5.03 Trenton Simpson LB (1)
Likely bust
None of the above (4)
Roschon Johnson (3)
Sleeper
8.03 Keeanu Benton DT (3)
7.03 Charlie Jones WR 11.03 Andrei Iosivas WR None of the above (2)
Gibbs seems to be very well liked – one person pegged him as a bust, but otherwise he dominated the best player stakes, and Hyatt seems to be a popular pick. But then there’s more negativity in the middle rounds, and not a huge amount of votes for his later picks. But also there’s nothing that people see as a particularly egregious error either – Roschon Johnson maybe, but even with him more people think he won’t be a bust than that he will.
That leads to a pretty strong consensus on Benj’s draft. An average of 7.1, with a high of 9 and a low of 6. It’s not the 9 that he predicted himself, but its good. Unfortunately that meant that the comments don’t have much unexpected. People liked Gibbs, people thought there was good depth throughout, although a couple of people commented that his later picks tailed off a bit. One person also pointed out that he managed a Jamie Oliver approved “Puka Tucker” combo.
Max
The best researched draft, so I’m expecting some very well thought out comments in response.
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
1.05 Jordan Addison WR (4)
2.05 Jack Campbell LB (2)
Best value
3.10 Sam Laporta TE (5)
Jack Campbell Jordan Addison 3.05 Jayden Reed WR (1)
Worst value
Jack Campbell (5)
4.05 Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE 6.05 DeMarvion Overshow LB 7.05 Deneric Prince RB(1)
Likely bust
Jack Campbell (3)
Jordan Addison Jayden Reed None of the above (2)
Sleeper
8.05 Byron Young DE (6)
10.05 Henry To’oto’o LB None of the above (1)
This feels like a tale of a draft that starts quite strongly and then goes downhill after Sam Laporta. We all hailed him as good value, and agreed that the first two guys he took were the best players (although Jack Campbell probably could have gone later). But apart from Byron Young no one seems to have liked his late picks at all.
That ends up giving an average of 6, with a high of 8 and a low of 4. In lieu of having Max’s own rating, I have a picture of the distribution of our ratings.
Our comments lauded Max’s humour, as well as all of his earlier picks. A couple of people complained about Campbell being a reach and lamented how long Max took to draft (can’t wait to see what people say about my drafting speed…). People also seem divided about whether Max really doesn’t know what’s going on, or whether he’s actually secretly well researched. Or maybe there’s just a strong correlation between funny names and successful NFL players?
Ian
Ian took the first defensive player, which is often divisive. Well, its divisive to me anyway, in that I usually disagree with it.
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
1.08 Will Anderson DE (5)
2.08 Jonathan Mingo WR (2)
Best value
Jonathan Mingo (2)
Will Anderson 8.08 Dontayvion Wicks WR 5.08 Michael Wilson WR 4.08 Bryan Bresee DT 3.08 Tank Bigsby RB (1)
Worst value
Jonathan Mingo Bryan Bresee Tank Bigsby (2)
Michael Wilson (1)
Likely bust
Tank Bigsby (5)
Jonathan Mingo (2)
Sleeper
None of the above (2)
7.08 Justin Shorter WR Dontayvion Wicks 8.12 YaYa Diaby DE 10.08 Parker Washington WR 12.08 Garrett Williams CB (1)
Once you get past Will Anderson, there’s not a lot of consensus here. Maybe that we didn’t like Tank Bigsby, with only one vote for him as best value and 7 combined votes for worst value and most likely to be a bust. Ian is the first to get “None of the above” for picking a sleeper, which is something?
It all adds up to a surprisingly (to me) high average of 5.8, with a high of 8 and low of 4, against his own rating of 6. I thought that the table above seemed to say that no one really thought too much of this draft, so I was expecting 4 to 6 as the range. The comments tend to call it unexciting: “nice and steady”, “middle of the road”, “not blown away”. Mingo got the most name checks amongst the comments, but they were a mixed bag (apart from the comment that pointed out “With Mingo and Dorian, we’ve almost got a misspelled tropical fruits theme going on”, which is genius).
Chris
With Neil getting panned primarily for the Bijan trade, I’m hoping that I get some rave reviews.
Category
Our pick
Runner up
Best player
1.01 Bijan Robinson RB (7)
None.
Best value
Bijan Robinson (6)
5.01 Will McDonald DE (1)
Worst value
4.06 Tank Dell WR 2.07 Luke Musgrave TE 1.07 Anthony Richardson QB (2)
1.06 Quentin Johnson WR (1)
Likely bust
2.06 Josh Downs WR (4)
Luke Musgrave None of the above (2)
Sleeper
8.11 Isaiah Foskey DE (3)
9.06 Marte Mapu LB (2)
Seems like people like Bijan, the only consensus pick in any category throughout the draft. I’m not surprised about the relatively wide spread of worst value, as I think I reached on a few players. If anything, I’m surprised that Josh Downs didn’t get any votes in that category.
That adds up to an average of 8.1, with a high of 10. The voting was two 10s, 4 9s and a 1, which is a very confusing spread and not explained by the comments. Maybe the rankings were confusing? A 10 was labelled as Die Hard 1, a 1 was labelled as Die Hard 5. Maybe someone misunderstood? Because I can’t imagine anyone thinking “oh yeah, Die Hard 5, that must be the highest rating.” Those were the only 10s given out in the draft. Thank you. My own rating was an 8, so not too bad. The comments seemed to be a mix of praise (“ridiculous”, “smashed the draft”, “nailed it” and “blistering”) and abuse “fuck this guy”. I still think its a bit generous – I reckon you lot are too low on Olave and I reached a bit too much on my other picks.
Overall
So how did we stack up overall then?
Team
Average rating
Own rating
Difference
Dyna Hard
8.1
8
-0.1
Sadness
7.4
4
-3.4
Bombermen
7.1
9
+1.9
Champions
6
N/A
N/A
Dungeoneers
6
N/A
N/A
Kelkowski
5.8
6
+0.2
Losers
5.6
8
+2.4
Brees
4.9
6
+1.1
T2
4.5
6
+1.5
Hurricanes
2.7
4
+1.3
Chris and Ian were closest to their own ratings, Mike was furthest away (and basically the only one who underrated his own draft), Slatz was most over-optimistic. And we managed to avoid voting for the teams with the least draft capital as worst drafts, but mainly thanks to everyone hating Neil’s trade.
I also took a look at who we think is most likely to be a bust or sleeper.
1st
2nd
3rd
Bust
Tank Bigbsy Devon Achane Marvin Mims (5)
Josh Downs Rashee Rice Tyjae Spears (4)
Too many people to list (3)
Sleeper
Jordan Battle (7)
Devon Witherspoon Byron Young (6)
Sydney Brown (5)
Technically there’s some bias towards Pete, Max and Benj’s players here as two didn’t complete the survey and Benj voted on his own draft, so they had a max of 8 possible votes compared to 7 for everyone else. I am mildly surprised that we had far more of a consensus on sleepers than busts. To get a sleeper, lots of people need to want the player but pass on them, but to get a bust only one person needs to like a player way more than consensus. Odd.
Trades
I have a feeling I know what the vote on one of these trades will be.
Bijan Robinson trade: 7 votes for Chris, 0 for Neil.
Pick 6.01 (Deuce Vaughn) for a 2024 6th: 5 votes for Mike (Vaughn side), 1 for Neil, 2 for about even
Miles Sanders for 3.10 (Sam Laporta): 7 votes for about even, 1 for Max (Laporta side).
A couple of players on either side but mainly 2.01 for 2.09: 6 votes for Slatz (2.01 side), 2 votes for Neil.
Mark Ingram for 6.10 (Josh Whyle): 5 votes for about even, 2 votes for Pete (6.10 side), 1 vote for Brees.
Devin Duvernay for 5.05 (DeWayne McBride): 3 votes for about even, 3 votes for Neil (5.05 side), 2 votes for Max.
Not a huge amount to add here. The lack of trades was disappointing and surprising.
Other draft bits and pieces
For biggest surprise, trades got mentioned a lot. 6 people mentioned trades in the 8 comments. 5 people mentioned the Bijan trade as biggest surprise and 2 people mentioned lack of trades (and one person mentioned both). The only player pick that was a surprise was Richardson at 1.07.
SirVocea Dennis took away the coveted best name trophy with 3 votes. Zack Kuntz and Bumper Pool ran him close with 2 votes a piece, and Jammie Robinson got the bronze medal. I meant to leave an “other” here – I can’t remember if I did and they just got no votes, or whether I forgot. Let’s not worry about it. You’ve probably stopped reading by now.
One person thought the draft should have been in May, 7 people said the timing was just right. Same time next year then lads? And 6 of 8 people said they were happy with free agency running alongside the draft, with only 1 person outraged. So we could happily continue that next year too. And 4 people said the draft took about the right amount of time, 3 said too long and 1 said too short. So pencil in around 8 days next year too.
In terms of who has been best at picking rookies in Dbowl history, Chris got 5 votes, Benj got 2 and Goody got 1. That’s the second year in a row that Chris has led this category (3 votes last year), and Benj and Goody were also name checked last year, with 1 vote each. Max got 2 votes last year and none this year, despite outperforming Goody according to our ratings (6 v 4.5), so its a bit surprising that he’s fallen off the list. Maybe his “I know nothing” propoganda during the draft worked?
The worst drafter crown is shared by Neil and Pete, with 3 votes each. Benj and Slatz got a vote a piece. Yep, Benj got votes for best drafter and worst drafter. I could probably run back through the last 4 years of surveys and see how that lines up to the voting, but I won’t. Neil took the worst drafter crown last year too, with 3 votes, and Pete (1) and Slatz (2) each got votes. Ben and Stew got a vote last year but none this year despite what was seen as a poor draft.
In terms of overall thoughts, three people referenced the disappointing lack of trades, but I feel like fatigue set in at this point, so I won’t dwell on this question and will probably remove it next year.
2023 Dynabowl season
Buoyed by a strong draft, Chris took home 50% of the votes to win the Dbowl title in 2023. 2 people voted for Slatz, and one a piece for the Brees and Max. Only 1 person said they wanted to vote for themselves but thought it was arrogant.
Neil got 7 votes for picking first in 2024, with Pete getting the other vote. 1 person admitted to voting for themselves. I’m assuming that was Neil just by sheer weight of votes.
The offensive rookie of the year vote was a three-headed race. “Bijan Robinson” picked up 4 votes, “Bijan” picked up 3 votes, and “Robinson” picked up 1. Should be a tight race. Maybe I should create a shortlist in future… Defensive rookie of the year was similarly consensus-driven, with some variant of Will Anderson picking up 7 votes, with Drew Sanders the outlier with the other vote.
A couple of vaguely interesting rules changes were suggested: scrapping all the bonus picks, changing the order of the bonus picks, and a lottery for the first 6 picks. Plus someone formally submitted one during the draft but forgot what it was, so it must have been very well thought through.
2023 NFL season
Bijan Robinson again got the nod for our NFL offensive rookie of the year (4 votes), with Bryce Young (2) and CJ Stroud/Jahmyr Gibbs (1 each) following him. And Will Anderson kept up the “life imitates fantasy” vibe with 5 votes for NFL defensive rookie of the year with 5 votes. Calijah Kancey, Jalen Carter and Christian Gonzalez got 1 each.
Mahomes got 4 votes for our NFL MVP, with Jalen Hurts picking up 2 and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson with 1 each. NFL Defensive Player of the Year was far less of a consensus, presumably because its not just limited to one position: Nick Bosa got 2 votes, then Sauce Gardner, Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Quinnen Williams and Micah Parsons each got 1. The Chiefs and Eagles tied as our Super Bowl favourites with 3 votes each, followed by the Bengals and Bills with a vote each. The Bucs and Titans are our Neil and Pete, with 2 votes each to pick first in the 2024 NFL draft. The Cardinals, Bears, Rams and Texans each got 1 vote.
Errata
There was no consensus on which fictional character you’d pick to play for your team. Superheroes featured heavily (Superman, Incredible Hulk, The Flash and Iron Man), literature/film came in second (Fezzik, Elizabeth Bennet and Mr Tickle) and actual fictional football came in third (Matt Saracen).
If anyone is interested in TV recommendations, there wasn’t one mentioned twice. Justified, Yellowjackets, The After Party, Colin From Accounts, The Rehearsal and Picard all got mentioned. In terms of book recommendations, 3 people said they didn’t read, and then the following were mentioned: Barca: The Rise and Fall of a Modern Superclub; The Devil in the White City; Jade City/Empire/Legacy; Murderbot; Shogun; Far From the Madding Crowd. Game recommendations didn’t get much interest: Clank in Space, Monopoly, Marvel Snap, Legacies, Unpacking, and Immortal. You can work out for yourself which are board games and which are video games.
And the question you’ve probably scrolled right to the end immediately to find the answer to: mightiest NFL dong. No consensus here: Bumper Pool, Hunter Renfrow, Nick Foles, Jalen Ramsey, Orlando Brown, Daniel Faalele and Dawand Jones each got a vote. As did Vietnam. The mystery continues.
