Before this year’s draft I sent each GM 20 very sensible questions about the upcoming draft, and some of them bothered to answer some or all of the 21 questions.
First up is the now traditional (2 years is a tradition, right) request to predict the first 10 picks of the draft, with points awarded for the accuracy. Let’s see how we all got on?
So it’s a tie at the top between last year’s top 2, but Kelkowski claim the 2023 crown on the unannounced tiebreaker of most spot on guesses, making it back to back triumphs. Can they replicate their success here in the real league?
Lots of votes for Dalton Kincaid in the first round, who eventually fell to 2.04. The other swings and misses: Achane – 2.01; Miller – 2.02; Johnson – 2.03; Campbell – 2.05; Young – 2.10; Wilson – 3.01; and finally Tajae Spears went at 3.07 to Tamworth – a steal in the opinion of Chris.
2. If everything breaks right for you, who would you come away with with each of your first 5 picks? Be realistic, no picking the top 5 players in the draft.
A new addition for this year, and some interesting insight into what GMs think they need, and what they think of other people’s valuations.
We’ll start with The Sadness. They got 1 of their 5 targets, though could have had two of them. Perhaps got a little optimistic with the hopes of getting Rashee Rice in the 4th, but then maybe they prefer Tillman and never thought he could remotely get that far. As for Kayshon Boutte, they passed him over not once, not twice, not thrice, but… oh, wait, it was thrice.
The Losers didn’t quite follow the spirit of the question and nominated several players at most slots and, in doing so, managed to secure 3 of the players they hoped for. Got very hopeful on the quarterbacks though…
The Hurricanes are a little complicated, what with the trading and all. Not only that, they grabbed a player early they were hoping to get much later. Missing out on Bryce Young by a pick must be galling though.
The Hard draft is quite different from the hopes and dreams GM Chris had ahead of the big day(s), but then having traded up for Bijan Robinson, he could have used the rest of his picks on Dynabowl GMs and still been happy. They clearly wanted Downs as, having traded away the pick they’d hoped to use, they picked him up a round earlier.
Reigning champions the Brees were still drunk, and got progressively drunker, as they wrote their hopes and dreams, missing out by 3, then 7, then 14, and finally by 33 picks. Luke Musgrave was the man snatched away at the last moment there… Meanwhile, they passed over Zach Harrison not once, not thrice, but twice.
Speaking of deluded, the Bombermen thought they could grab Anthony Richardson in the fifth round and were also suckered in by the promise of Luke Musgrave in the fourth. But grabbing two of their first three hopes is the good news, though Miller was sniped. Some insider info, their GM says that literally any of the 4 RBs in that tier would have been good and the order of them hadn’t been set when the survey was completed.
Finally, we have Kelkowski, who got three of their targets, one with a theoretical reach, and wasn’t disastrously out for the other two. You could argue Miller was a bit optimistic, I suppose, but all in all a good haul based on the pre-draft desires.
Questions 3-7. How many trades will there be during the draft? Do you want to trade? Which pick will be the first traded? What will it be traded for? And who will be involved in it?
The real answer was an astonishingly low 2 picks, perhaps showing that interest in the league is drying up and we should all go home, just as soon as I have won a second title. I mean, I’ll be honest, if you all quit, as it seems many of you want to, I’ll just GM the vacant teams myself until I get that second win.
Anyway, where was I? Oh yes, two trades. Two! Did anyone see that coming? Well… no. Although there was this from the Bombermen…
Last year my research told me that there were around 6 each of the last few years, and last year there were exactly 6. Based on that, I’m going to go for… 5. I don’t think there are a lot of players people are jostling for position for so people will end up just taking their picks. I guess maybe people will sell picks for players?
So, overall, this what we all said:
Shockingly, the only person who foresaw the trade for the number 1 pick coming was one of the two teams involved, Chris and the Hard. No one else saw Neil as being involved, though quite a few fingered Chris as a wheeler dealer.
Was there anything else insightful to be found? No, obviously not. I mean, it’s stretching things to say any of this nonsense is insightful if we’re being honest, but here are some choice highlights.
I don’t think [Chris] really needs those 2 first so will look to move back.
Kelkowski
I would like to trade up to #1 for Bijan. Neil isn’t returning my calls though. I doubt I’ll have two guys I love at 1.06/7, so would be happy to trade one of those picks for a vet or move down and get a few mid round picks to stock up on a shit load of TEs
Dyna Hard
Things got a little confusing with the answers from the Losers. Which pick will be the first traded?
I can see all of 3-8 being available, but I don’t know who’s moving up for them, so I’d probably say somewhere in the early to late 2nd. I could see maybe 1.10/2.01 – there’s been a few trades in that region historically.
But then, who will be involved in the first trade?
If the top two picks don’t move (and I don’t think they will), and picks 3-8 are untradeable, then that leaves… 1.10 and 2.01 as potential breakpoints for the 2nd tier of RBs, I could see a move there, but the price is probably a bit steep. So, I’ll say mid to late 2nd, about 2.04 to 2.06.
You can see why the table above is a bit unclear.
Then we come to the Hurricanes responses, which contradict each other and the reality of what he actually did during the draft (though of course it’s possible to change your mind between answering and trading). The ‘Canes said that the Bombermen’s 1.03 would be the first pick to be traded, and that Chris and Max would be involved in the trade. Maybe they were hinting at an unprecedented three-way trade?
Still, we’ll leave the last word to the always chipper Losers, in response to the number of trades question…
I still don’t see the point of this question though, we’re just picking a number out of the air and it’s not a meaningful thing to guess.
Let’s be honest, there’s no meaning to any of this, but it is still possible to offer something hinting at use, as the Bombermen showed above.
Back to whether the individuals wanted to trade at all…
I’d like Anthony Richardson or a top TE and I don’t really see them lasting beyond the middle of the third, so if I can do a deal at a good price, I could look to move up there
Losers
I’ve not had many early picks in recent years so I keen to keep them this year. Having said that if the right offer presents itself to help me this year then I’ll listen. Depending on how it goes I may look to get extra picks in the 2nd / 3rd rounds
Kelkowski
Yes, move down from 1.10 to pick up more picks in rounds 2 and 3 to take some more RB prospects
Brees
I wouldn’t mind trading up a few picks from 2.03 to try to get Kendre Miller.
Bombermen
And finally the Hurricanes chime in with this gem:
Will trade down for a combination of
Yes, that’s the full quote. Anyway, onwards…
The positions people wanted to find a 2023 contributor for:
So everyone’s a winner, baby.
Running backs. And a lot of them. Because, as we know, successful running backs can come out of nowhere.
Bombermen
Does 3 count as a lot?
For this season RB, but for dynasty purposes it’s TEs. This class looks absolutely stocked with them.
Hard
‘Hard’ agree from me. During the draft, when the Hard took both Musgrave and Washington, a leak in the Bombermen front office has confirmed they were next on the draft board. Although an important caveat to that is that the source does not recall if that’s actually accurate, or mere flattery being sent to the Hard.
Meanwhile…
All of them.
Kelkowski
They didn’t make the table above as what’s the point (beyond what’s the point of any of this)? Anyway, they failed to take a QB, punter, kicker or safety, so mission failed.
Onwards!
9-11. The reaches! Who are you most likely to reach for? Who will make the consensus biggest reach? Who will be reached for?
So two sets of cop-out comments were given here. Let’s see what you all had to say:
How are you most likely to reach for?
I don’t know if there is anyone specifically. Kendre Miller, but then it won’t be a reach (I’m not taking him at 3). I guess I’d like, assuming Miller is gone, Achane going at 13 maybe seen as a reach by some. But then he may not make it that far.
Bombermen
So nominating two players that they’d only take if they got through to them at the right kind of place based on ADP. Thanks for that. (TBF, some online rankings had Achane down in the 20s so it was feasible someone might see 13 as a reach)
I don’t think there’s anyone worth reaching for in this class, I’m happy to just see what falls to me. But if I feel like one of the big TEs or Richardson has slipped a few places past where I have them ranked, then I might well make a move to get them.
Losers
So I’d reach for a player if they feel to the point that they were now a bargain rather than a reach. Thanks. For. That. As. Well.
Who will make the biggest reach?
Based on my top 10, either Kendre Miller or Roschon Johnson. The problem is there’s no reaches in this class. I can’t see the top 6 not being fixed (the order might be different, but the first six players should be the first six players), and after that it’s hard to really identify who’s next, or argue for one player or another as clearly better / worse.
Losers
I mean, it’s accurate analysis of the available players in the draft, but in no way does it answer the question or spice up any inter-team rivalries.
And then comments on all the questions from one team:
I think I am a lot higher than other people on Josh Downs and Tank Dell. I’d be ok with taking Downs in the early 2nd and Dell in the 3rd. Both are tiny but both are so good. I have a thing for small WRs apparently.
Neil [will make the consensus biggest reach]. He usually takes a cornerback or safety earlier than expected.
Tough to say [who will be reached for] because ECR looks a bit barmy for some players. Mingo at 13? Richardson at 5? I could see someone taking Will Anderson in the first which I’d see as a reach. But against ADP/ECR, maybe Jayden Reed?
Hard
Thanks for playing the game.
Onto Bargains…
12-13. Who will get the biggest bargain, and who will fall far enough to seem like a bargain?
We’ll have to see what the exit surveys say, but as a warm up, LaPorta went at 3.10 to the Champions, Levis went at 7.09 to the Losers, Young went at 2.10 to the Brees and absolutely will not be seen as a bargain, no matter how much they want us to think he was, and Tillman went at 4.04 to the Sadness and could be seen as one, while Downs went at 2.06 and definitely won’t be.
14. Three QBs went in the first 4 picks of the NFL draft. What order will they go in in the Dyanbowl draft?
Everyone got the order right. Well done, every one. Give yourselves a Malteser. However, the predictions were all over the place. Kudos to Neil, who is a Dynabowl QB drafting savant, nailing 2 of the picks and only being a handful of picks out on the third:
And Kelkowksi manage to save the Bombermen’s blushes with some spectacularly wrong answers.
DE-FENCE! DE-FENCE! DE-FENCE!
15-17. When will the first defensive player go, who will it be and who will take the most defensive players?
Consensus!!
Everyone nailed that Will Anderson would be first, and three people nailed the pick down to 1.08.
The Losers added some useful (genuinely) commentary:
1.08-1.09. I think I might get gazumped, but I’m almost certainly taken Jalen Carter if he’s there. So 1.09 is the absolute floor. But I could certainly see Ian taking either Carter or Will Anderson. Chris doesn’t take defenders that high.
As for number of defensive players:
The most were taken by Tamworth and the Sadness, but Tamworth edge it on percentage. Congratulations to nobody.
18-20. Winners and Losers
Some cognitive dissonance for the Hurricanes who think that the Champions will be judged as the worst team, but also that they, themselves, will be ranked last. No one wanting to put themselves forward as the top pick. And a few comments on this subject too:
[On the draft winner] This is always a bad question on the exit survey because it’s often the person with the most capital. We don’t tend (as a group) to stray too far from consensus rankings, so the person with the most and highest picks get what people think is the best haul, and we don’t tend to evaluate against expectations either. I’ll say Chris, as he has 2 1st and 2 2nd rounders, but Pete might be right there with a top 2 pick in every round.
[And loser] Tamworth? No picks in the first two rounds.
Losers
[Winners] The Champions. It’s always Max. Lack of research is your friend. Or rather, his.
[Losers] The Sadness. Because they have to be sad.
[Self] 7th. I don’t get the respect I deserve.
Bombermen
[Winner] Neil, on the basis he’s almost certainly getting Bijan.
[Loser] Goody, mainly because he has no picks in the 1st two rounds and that’s always tough to recover from.
Hard
21. How long will the draft last?
It’s the only question, out of all of this, that really matters. You’ve waded through all the shit above and finally reached the pinnacle. So what were the results?
I know a lot of you put a lot of time and effort into calculating this figure, trying to get as close as humanly possible, and that work has been well rewarded for the Hard and the Sadness, both within 24 hours of the actual time. Bravo!
I’ll give the last word to the Losers:
Too long and not long enough.
This is an aside, like the number of trades question. I don’t get the point of this, it’s just a guess. We’ve all got better things to do than fill in a survey for fun, so cut out some of the fat? Get it down to a quicker 10 questions – I’ve highlighted the ones I’d keep, with or without tweaks.
