Well, the 2022 Dynabowl Draft is in the books. Before it all went down, I asked the GMs to make some predictions about what might happen, and these are the results.
First up, I asked GMs to predict the first round. Some people had an advantage, as they were picking in the first round, sometimes more than once. It certainly made things easier for the Sadness, given their surprise pick of Quay Walker at 10, while the Hurricanes predicted 4 defensive players to go in the first round, which would have been a record, but failed to spot that Walker was the one who would actually. They also incorrectly predicted a trade for pick 8, but failed to nominate who the player taken there would be.
Here’s the full table, along with a score for how accurate people were at guessing. I put my inaccuracy down to not researching the round as I wasn’t going to pick there.
Fashionably late, I received the entrance survey from the Losers shortly after publication and can now add their predictions here, predictions which netted 30 points, leaving Kelkowski as the king predictors:
And after that, let us all salute The Champions for their predictions:
2. How many trades will there be during the draft?
The correct answer was 6. If you’d done your research you could have guessed it would be in this neighbourhood because a glimpse into the past shows that since 2018 there’s been 6, 6, 5 and 4 trades (though 2018 had two trades mid-draft for 2019 picks. However, going back further in time we see that 2017 had 13 trades, 2016 had 10 and 2015 – the first draft in the books, had a whopping 15 trades in during the draft. Insanity. There were only 7 rounds for each of those drafts too…
So what did we say? Well, living in the past we had the Sadness, who went for an astonishing 14 (!!!), while Hard and the Hurricanes both said 10. Some more sensible guesses were had from Tamworth (8), Kelkowski (7), Champions (7), and the Bombermen (8, though admitting “I am literally plucking a number out of the air there”), while the Brees (2) really low-balled it.
Late comer Losers topped everyone, suggesting a total of 15 trades, commenting “Stupid fucking question”, which I assume means that the answer was so obvious why even bother asking.
And at this point I would note that the commentary was pretty scant from most respondents so if this is a bit dry, you know who to blame. (Yourself and everyone but me).
3. Which pick will be the first pick traded?
The correct answer was 2.07, it belonged to the Bombermen, until it was sold to the Tamworth Two. But did anyone get it right?
We already know the Hurricanes guessed that 1.08 would be traded away.
Tamworth went for 2.04, perhaps indicating a desire to get up even higher than they managed.
Kelkwoski plumped for Chris selling 1.09, along the same lines as the Hurricanes guess.
The Bombermen stated “I think Chris will trade one of his first round picks. While I don’t really think that Dave will trade up, but he could be convinced because I fancy he wants Skyy Moore. But I don’t know, really.” So there definitely was something in the air about Chris making a move, and Moore did, indeed, go at 9 so if he had been sought after you’d have needed to make this leap.
The Brees thought pick 1.04 would have a buyer – a pick which the Champions spent on Treylon Burks.
The Sadness matched Tamworth in plumping for 2.04 while the Hard plumped for 1.06 and the Champions went high, suggesting 1.02 would be on the move.
The Losers were non-committal – “This is more a question of buyer than seller. I’d move 3, but I don’t think I’ll find a buyer”
That meant three people thought Chris was trading, 3 thought Max was, one vote for the Brees and one for the Sadness.
4. Will the first pick traded be for a player (or players), picks, or a combination?
The first trade that happened was 2.07 & 5.07 for 3.08, 4.08 and 4.09, so all picks.
The Brees, Hard and Champions (and the late-comer Losers) said it would be solely for picks, though the Sadness appears to have suggested 2.04 would be sold for 3.05 straight up. Everyone else said a player+pick deal which, based on history, was probably the right guess.
5. Who will be involved in the first trade?
The correct answer was Bombermen and Tamworth, which no one got right. Probably not a surprise.
We had a Hard/Brees trade (Hurricanes and Hard – though the Hard said that he could alternatively trade with the Hurricanes of Champions, so he was sold on himself trading, just like everyone else), Dungeoneers/Champions (Tamworth), Hard and apparently no one else (Kelkwoski), “I already said – Slatz and Chris. Definitely Chris. No real idea about Slatz. Maybe Ian?” (Bombermen), Champions/Hard (Brees), Sadness/Hurricanes (Champions) and Champions/Tamworth (Sadness). Oh, and “Chris” (Losers).
So out of all that there was one half of the trade was guessed correctly, once.
6. Which position are you most keen to pick up to be a contributor for this season?
The Hurricanes wanted a RB and got James Cook. He shoots, he scores.
Tamworth also wanted an RB, but didn’t have a pick until the third round. They traded up for Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier in the second, and also picked up a “Treston Ebner”, whatever that is, in the 11th round. Mission accomplished perhaps as well as could be expected given the capital available at the start of the draft.
Kelkowski wanted a DT to contribute this season, which was probably a tough ask regardless. Even tougher when they don’t end up picking one the whole draft.
The Bombermen said “Running Back. It’s the position most likely to have an impact in the first season.” But they only took one in the 7th (Jerome Ford) and 9th (Jashaun Corbin), so that’s unlikely to have much impact. But the options were a bit thin on the ground this year.
The Brees wanted a wide receiver and got three of them – Garrett Wilson (1st), Alec Pierce (3rd) and Velus Jones (11th). Jones, in particular is a bit of a steal there given the opportunity in Chicago.
The Sadness wanted a linebacker and snaffled up Quay Walker in the first round along with Devin Lloyd in the 2nd and Damone Clark in the 11th. Got that one pretty well covered. Now to see if they contribute first up.
The Champions were after a wide receiver (“Shame about the players”) and came away with 5 of them – their top three picks – Burks (1.04), Williams (1.07) and Pickens (2.04), as well as guys in the 9th and 11th who you’ve never heard of and never will again.
The Hard took this question seriously and responded “I think it’s a really good and deep WR class, so will be upset if I don’t come away with 2 good WRs from the 1st 3 rounds. I generally really like the talent in rounds 3-4. It feels like a draft lacking that top end talent (round 2 is a wasteland) but with great depth.” And on the back of that he has Olave and Moore (1.08 and 1.09) as well as Wan’Dale Robinson in the third. All in all, a good day at the office.
The Losers wanted an RB, and fulfilled that to some degree by taking one in the 7th, the 8th and 11th. It’s possible none of those players take any meaningful snaps.
7. Which player are you most keen to get/most likely to reach for?
I think most people took this as the player they most wanted, whereas I was hoping for the player who appealed to the GM more than the consensus, so they might get jittery and take early – ie I basically wanted to know who you would reach for. I’ll reword it next time.
This became obvious from the first answer I looked at, the Hurricanes proclaiming they were most keen to get Breece Hall, the consensus number 1 overall pick. Not really possible to reach for him, is it?
Tamworth were only mildly closer to the question I really wanted to ask, suggesting James Cook “but he will go too early”. Yes he will. He’ll go fifth when your first pick coming into the draft wasn’t until the third round.
A more sensible response came from Kelkowski: “Given my first pick is at 20, I’m hoping Spiller falls to me there”. Given they traded away pick number 20, they can be very pleased at nabbing Spiller at 3.10, thirtieth overall.
The Bombermen can be equally happy, stating “Doubs, the Green Bay wide receiver. But I’m not so excited that I’ll be grabbing him in the 2nd or anything.” Instead it was 4.08, 38th overall, that they picked up Doubs, right about where he should have been going.
The Brees went for Chris Olave who, unless they traded up to the top two, probably couldn’t have been considered a reach, but if he was the player the most wanted, they had the chance at 6 and declined the option.
The Sadness offered a window into their world by responding ‘Dunno’, which is either the least helpful response possible, or the name of a player so under the radar it could have succeeded in a mission against a nondescript enemy in Top Gun: Maverick.
The Hard said “Rachaad White. Great upside, plus he covers me for Fournette. I’d prefer to take him at about pick 15, but if I can’t get a better option I’m happy with him at #9.” and promptly took him at 18, so all in all, very happy with his work.
The Losers managed to fall on both sides of the coin, with the obvious desire and the one more in keeping with the aim of the question. He didn’t get either player though: “Well, Breece Hall would be nice. But failing him, I like Rachaad White as a good size-speed guy with pass catching skills in a good situation.”
And finally the Champions sums up what everyone is really thinking: “Whichever one Slatz tells me afterwards was my stupidest pick/biggest reach.”
8. Who will make the consensus biggest reach (Draft Exit Survey will be the judge)?
Hurricanes says Hard
Tamworth says Dungeoneers
Kelkowski says Tamworth
Bombermen says (incorrectly) “Everyone will say me. It won’t be me. I swear it. I’ll say…. (pulls name out of hat)… [Tamworth]. No, wait, it’ll be [the Hurricanes]. I won’t spoil the answers that are coming up by saying who….”
Brees appears to think that James Cook was also taking part in the draft and would make the biggest reach… Presumably this mean that he would be the biggest reach (not the question asked), but maybe the post-draft survey will confirm this as correct, seeing as he went fifth overall to the Hurricanes.
Hard says Hurricanes, in a nice bout of symmetry.
The Losers were perhaps a little down on themselves, stating the person most likely to make the consensus reach will be “Me – a lot will depend on if I can swing a deal, but I want Jordan Davis in the second”
And the Champions nominate the Champions.
9. Who will get the consensus biggest bargain?
The Champions says “The Hard – this is how he does well”, and, as recent analysis has shown, unless you don’t believe in all that analysis bollocks (I know I don’t), it is how he does well.
The Hard nominated the Bombermen. Which is very nice of them. I doubt that will hold up now.
The Sadness also believes in the Hard’s drafting ability.
As well as James Cook, Jameson Williams was also making picks in this draft, according to the Brees, and will end up with the biggest bargain… Again, if we change the question to the one they answered, maybe this could be right. He came off the board to the Champions at 1.07. Will that prove to be a bigger bargain that Velus Jones in the 11th round?
We thought the Champions had nailed it above, did the Bombermen nail it here: “Somebody will fall into the Losers’s lap that everyone thinks is great who will then get injured and his career will never really take off”?
Kelkowski and the Hurricanes both thought the Losers would get the biggest bargain, while Tamworth thought the Brees would. They offered no reasoning or colourful commentary on this.
The Losers made possibly the most prescient comment: “Whoever picks Tyler Algieier? Unless someone reaches for him in the 2nd or something mad. He’s probably a 4th round sort of pick, and with no other competition that’ll be a bargain for a potentially competent starting RB.”
Algieier was taken by Tamworth at 2.09 (19th overall).
10. When will the first QB go off the board (round and pick number)? & 11. Who will be the first QB taken?
The correct answer here was Malik Willis at 5.05. For me, he was top of my list at QB, but I had hoped that perhaps that wasn’t the thinking elsewhere in the league. Let’s find out.
The Hurricanes, who took Willis at 5.05, plumped for Howell at 4.08 (originally a Tamworth pick, but traded to the Bombermen in the draft), which would have been quite remarkable given he was the 6th QB taken in the draft and the Commanders also just traded a fair bit of capital for Wentz. But hey. The pick was pretty close.
Tamworth went for Pickett at 3.04, which would have been a Champions pick.
Kelkowski also thought Pickett would go, but seemed to think he would go in the first round, putting down pick 10 as the slot he’d go in. No QB has gone first round before. A remarkable suggestion. A reminder that Pickett when at 8.09 to the Hard.
The Bombermen suggested the first QB would go to the Hurricanes (bing bing bing), but went a round early at 4.05… “Pickett – [the Hurricanes] will take him because he’s a Steeler. It will be the consensus reach.”
The Brees went for the same player, but even higher, at 2.09, which would have been a Hard pick.
The Sadness also plumped for Pickett and also seemed to suggest Neil would take him by isolating pick 3.05 as the spot he’d come off the board.
The Hard has a bone to pick with lots of people after stating “Kenny Pickett. If it’s anyone else it’s a mad pick. I like Corral’s chances for this year too. I’m not sure I’d even bother with any of the others.” We’ve already mentioned they took Pickett themselves, and a long way below the 4.10 (Kelkowski) slot he thought he would go in.
The Losers also said Pickett. “Nobody should be picking Pickett before the 6th round. No other QB should be drafted in the first 7 or 8. He’ll probably go in the 4th though, pick 37”, with, for some reason, the Bombermen taking him (or trading out of the pick, I guess).
The Champions also went for the 4th round, suggesting “4.06, wait that’s me, 4.07”. As for who? “Slim Pickens”. Thanks. For. That.
12. When will the first defensive player go off the board (round and pick number)? & 13. Who will be the first defensive player taken?
Real answer: Quay Walker, 1.10.
Commentary from the Champions: “Honestly, it should probably be 1.01. Have [the Dungeoneers] got the balls for it? Given I’ve said [the Sadness] will trade down I’ll say [the Losers] will at 1.03. Maybe [they]’ll play it more traditional but [they’re] just crazy enough.” Nailed. It. And likewise nailed the who: “I’ve [said the Losers] will do it so I’ll say Aidan Hutchinson as [they] only [have] 3 DEs.” Given the Losers respect for his “T-Rex arms”, couldn’t have been more right.
The Hard were one place and one player out, opting for 2.01 and Devin Lloyd (second defensive player at 2.02). Perceptive. The Losers also went for 2.01, but said it would be Hutchison.
The Sadness nailed it. Because they knew they intended to take Walker at 1.10. I’m not giving points for predicting what you’re going to do. Sorry.
The Brees said Aidan Hutchison at 2.07. He was the 4th defensive player at 2.05, so not a million miles away for the draft spot at least.
Let’s see what the Bombermen have to offer… “2.07? I might take one. Though I could see one going earlier,” and “Hutchison? The Detroit DE taken with the second pick.” So cribbing notes from the Brees then.
2.07 is clearly in vogue as Kelkowski picked Devin Lloyd to be the first defensive player taken in that slot. Perhaps the Bombermen have developed a reputation for taking defensive players early? However, they’ve normally done it in the first round.
Tamworth were pretty close pick-wise, opting for 1.08 – the only one to suggest a defensive player would go in the first. They also managed to write this as a footer rather than in the body of the text. Just a bit of flavour of the kind of rubbish I have to put up with. Anyway, they correctly predicted the pick would be Walker. Bravo! That said, their predicted first round – the first question of this survey, said the Hard would take Skyy Moore at 1.08, so draw your own conclusions.
Finally the Hurricanes thought safety Kyle Hamilton would come off the board 4th, which must make him a steal for the Sadness at 3.02.
14. Who will take the most defensive players?
Volume or percentage, the answer is the same:
The Champions were close. Ish. “Probably [us]. [We] have a history of not taking offensive players after the first 3 rounds except for the odd TE.” Two odd WRs and an odd RB in the final 4 rounds put to rest any dreams in that direction.
The Hard sort of nailed this one, suggesting the Sadness, who were any acceptable right answer by volume.
The Sadness also knew their destiny and predicted they would top the list too.
The Brees also put themselves forward but were a little further from being accurate.
The Bombermen threw themselves and the Champions into the ring and get nothing in return.
The Losers pumped for themselves and weren’t a million miles out: “I’m hoping it’ll be me. I need to do some work.”
Kelkowski gets the dunces hat for nominating themselves, while Tamworth opted for the Brees and the Hurricanes opted for the Champions.
15. How long will the draft last (in days, hours and minutes)?
Actual answer – 6 days, 1 hour and 8 minutes. Well done to the Champions for just being closer than Tamworth:
The latecomer Losers said 3 days, 4 hours, 11 minutes, putting them as the second most inaccurate. Again, it’s a “stupid fucking question”, but if they think it’s so obvious, they were an awfully long way out…