Category: Free Agency

2017 Free Agency Review: Tim

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Kelkowski

Drew Brees (NOS, QB) – $35, 1 year
Brandon Coleman (NOS, WR) – $1, 1 year
Rishard Matthews (TEN, WR) – $17, 4 years
Terrelle Pryor (WAS, WR) – $25, 3 years
Eric Decker (NYJ, WR) – $20, 2 years
Gary Barnidge (CLE, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dennis Pitta (BAL, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dont’a Hightower (NEP, LB) – $8, 4 years
Nick Perry (GBP, LB) – $4, 4 years
AJ Bouye (JAC, CB) – $3, 3 years

If there was one team that you should really look at all the small deals for it’s Kelkowski as they seem to have half the league on $1, 1 year deals.  They did make a few splashes in free agency though with big money going on Brees, Pryor, Decker and Matthews.  This year could be the year that Brees drops off the cliff but if it isn’t Kelkowski have addressed one of their big areas of need for at least one season and the short term nature of the deal obviously minimises the risk.  With three mid-priced WRs added to the team it’s apparent where else Kelkowski thought they needed to strengthen and, to be fair, if they hadn’t they’d have been relying on Randall Cobb and Will Fuller for the entirety of 2017.  All three deals are for guys who seem to now be the number 1 option on their team but there is uncertainty about the standing of both Decker and Matthews in the depth chart so time will tell.  Barnidge and Pitta are both notable cheap deals.  Each has their question marks but both could end the season as solid TE1s and for deals with no risk attached that’s good business.

On the defensive side of the ball I like the Hightower deal as he could be a top tier linebacker if his health would ever let him.  At $8 that’s a risk worth taking.  Perry is also a good bet at that price.  He may disappear back to obscurity but it’s no big loss if he does and he showed his ceiling last season.  With AJ Bouye you’re paying for his 2016 season and now that he’s in a new team I would have no faith in him to produce again.  For $3 though who cares?

Dynablaster Bombermen

Chris Thompson (WAS, RB) – $6, 3 years
DeSean Jackson (TBB, WR) – $12, 3 years
Michael Crabtree (OAK, WR) – $24, 3 years
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, WR) – $8, 2 years
Cameron Wake (MIA, DE) – $11, 2 years
Yannick Ngakoue (JAX, DE) – $14, 5 years
Chandler Jones (ARI, LB) – $30, 4 years
Zach Brown (WAS, LB) – $13, 5 years
Eric Weddle (BAL, S) – $2, 3 years

Benjamin Hendy was a busy man in the off-season and the Bombermen have gone hard at the free agent market, preparing themselves for a big push for the Owl in 2017.  On offence the monster move is Michael Crabtree and it looks like a good one.  The money is not to be sniffed at but you’re talking about paying Crabtree like a WR3.  He was that in 2015 and was a top-end WR2 in 2016 so unless you think he’s going to take a step back in 2017 then he looks a safe investment.  The Raiders could draft a WR and impinge on his value somewhat but with so many problems on their defence it would be a surprise.  DeSean Jackson is even better value at $12.  Sure, he’s boom-bust but that is a pittance for a player who will win your matchup for you some weeks.  He’s the second target to Mike Evans in Tampa but Jackson is not a player who needs high volume to get it done and the B-Men won’t be relying on him as anything more than a WR3 at best.  Fitzgerald is a solid pick-up, his ceiling is low but his floor is high.  Chris Thompson is a bit of a lottery ticket and the price looks a dollar or two high for me but he was the most competent of Washington’s backs last season so he’s worth a look.

I’m less enamoured of the defensive moves the Bombermen have made, however.  Ngakoue’s price is defensible, if not cheap, but the length of the contract represents a risk to me as he’s much more likely to underperform than overperform at that money.  Zach Brown too is being paid quite a lot based on one season of production in a different team.  Cameron Wake’s deal sits in the middle, not bad value for a guy who can top-score when he’s on form, but he’s getting old now and has injury concerns.  I would rather have had Robert Quinn at $8 than Wake at $11, personally.  Coming back to the good end of the spectrum though we have Chandler Jones at $30 (expensive but he is a tippy-top linebacker) and Eric Weddle (a very steady S1/2 for a good price).  One thing I absolutely cannot fault Hendy on though is the aggressive way he has moved to fill his needs.  The Bombermen don’t have much by the way of draft picks this season so he needed to get his team in shape to challenge by the end of this window and, putting aside an overpay or two, it looks like mission accomplished.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Dak Prescott (DAL, QB) – $29, 4 years
LeGarrette Blount (FA, RB) – $16, 2 years
Jonathan Stewart (CAR, RB) – $8, 2 years
Adam Thielen (MIN, WR) – $14, 3 years
Kenny Stills (MIA, WR) – $9, 3 years
Jared Cook (OAK, TE) – $10, 3 years
Nick Fairley (NOS, DT) – $25, 3 years

Let’s start here with the good stuff.  Neil Hawke’s running backs were less a stable than a rotten manger and some action was definitely required.  There is a lot of talk of Carolina being the landing spot for Leonard Fournette in the draft but until that speculation bears fruit then Jonathan Stewart is the main man there and $8 looks good value.  Even if he ends up in a committee or as a handcuff it’s not a terrible deal.  LeGarrette Blount, on the other hand, does look like one.  Yet to find a team, Blount’s value was entirely tied to his position in New England and if he doesn’t end up back there then the chances of him being worth that money are remote.  At least it’s only a short deal.  Kenny Stills isn’t bad value at $9, he could easily prove to be Miami’s second threat behind Jarvis Landry this season and their main deep option so he has a good shot to outperform that figure. I can only assume that Neil has mistaken Adam Thielen for someone else.  The #33 WR in 2016, Thielen scored a quarter of his points in one week and seemed to end up as a target for the Vikings by accident.  I can’t help but feel that money could have been better invested somewhere else.  Jared Cook has landed in a good spot in Oakland but $10 is a big overpay for a player who has promised much throughout his career but delivered little.  He was the #40 TE last season due to injury and whilst he flashed when fit I don’t know how much competition the Birds would have had for him at $5, let alone $10.  Dak Prescott is just nuts.  In a league where QBs are ten a penny Prescott should maybe be earning half what he is.  Last season he finished 6th, sure, but the question is one of repeatability.  To my mind you need to see a QB have more than 1 season performing like that before you pay him like he’s worth it.

On defence the only significant move that the Firebirds made was the addition of Nick Fairley to play alongside Geno Atkins at DT.  Unfortunately this is another huge overpay in my opinion.  Fairley is a player with a history of playing well for one season then dropping off the radar and he has just scored elite money in the Dynabowl.  There are very few DTs in the league who are worth paying over $20 for and Nick Fairley isn’t one of them.  Trust me, I own another of them.

Champions of the Sun

Ryan Tannehill (MIA, QB) – $7, 3 years
Danny Woodhead (BAL, RB) – $10, 2 years
Jack Doyle (IND, TE) – $8, 2 years
Mario Addisson (CAR, DE) – $3, 3 years
Kiko Alonso (MIA, LB) – $5, 3 years
TJ Ward (DEN, S) – $3, 3 years
Reshad Jones (MIA, S) – $11, 4 years

The Champions of the Sun were always light at QB behind Big Ben and while Tannehill is at a decent price the inconsistency of performance he has shown across the years does not inspire confidence as a primary backup.  GM Max Cubberley is likely counting on QB Whisperer Adam Gase working his magic but if Paxton Lynch doesn’t become a viable QB 2 in Denver then he may find himself light on options.  Danny Woodhead seems like good RB depth, something the Champions need.  He is in a new scheme and has question marks over age and injury but he has shown an RB1/2 ceiling in the past and, at that price, if he can be a decent RB3 there will be no complaints.  The only other offensive move outside some RB flyers was Jack Doyle, the Indianapolis Tight End.  He currently heads the depth chart with both a QB and a scheme that are TE-friendly and so this seems like decent value even if he isn’t the most explosive or exciting of players.  Indianapolis may end up drafting a TE to replace him but it’s rare for rookie TEs to be a factor in their first year so the Champions should see at least one year of decent production from Doyle.

There wasn’t much money to throw around at Paddy’s Pub for free agents with a new deal for Khalil Mack on the horizon but the biggest chunk of change went to Reshad Jones.  $11 puts him in the elite bracket of safeties in terms of pay but it seems reasonably safe.  Jones has not changed scheme or team and in Miami he was the #1 safety (total points) in 2015 and the #2 safety (points per week) in 2016.  Paying premium money for a player is always a risk but Jones would seem to have a good shot of being a top 5 at his position every year, health allowing.  The other main moves on defence were reasonably small fry.  Amidst a whole host of $1 safeties and corners, Cubberley forked out $3 for TJ Ward.  Ward is a solid option, unlikely to trouble the top of the safety rankings but fine to serve as a #2 or #3 to Jones.  Kiko Alonso could be a steal at $5 (#22 LB in 2016) although concerns about him being shifted about in Miami’s scheme as well as his ever-present injury problems could just as easily sink him.  Mario Addison is a deal similar to Akiem Hicks for the Sadness.  A player who seemed to step up from mediocrity last season but whose role in the team for 2017 seems to be the same.  Maybe he’ll drop back to obscurity but he just got paid like a starter in Carolina and if he can be a solid DE2 again then it’s a good deal.

DynaHard

Adrian Peterson (FA, RB) – $14, 1 year
Latavius Murray (MIN, RB) – $26, 3 years
Eddy Lacy (SEA, RB) – $18, 3 years
Marshawn Lynch (OAK, RB) – $2, 1 year
Frank Gore (IND, RB) – $9, 1 year
Mike Wallace (BAL, WR) – $10, 2 years
Mohammed Sanu (ATL, WR) – $2, 3 years
Tavon Austin (LAR, WR) – $3, 3 years
Kenny Britt (CLE, WR) – $5, 1 year
Antonio Gates (SDC, TE) – $5, 1 year
Calais Campbell (JAX, DE) – $24, 1 year
Thomas Davis (CAR, LB) – $9, 1 year
Ryan Kerrigan (WAS, LB) – $11, 1 year

DynaHard GM Chris Braithwaite certainly appears to have carried his in-season waiver wire form into the off-season with a large number of players signed.  This scattershot approach seems to have largely swept up shit players, old players or shit, old players but if Chris hits on 25% of these tickets then he will be happy enough.  Where else to start but with the running backs where Braithwaite’s exasperation with Todd Gurley could not be evidenced more keenly than by giving Eddy Lacy $18.  By all accounts even fatter than last season, Lacy goes into a crowded and uncertain Seattle backfield.  It’s a lot of money to put on a player with a history of not getting in (or staying in) good shape.  $26 Latavius Murray has moved to just about the worst place for a running back in the league and this is a player who was massively touchdown dependent behind one of the best O-lines in the league.  I’d also slam the signing of Frank Gore except with Indianapolis, who knows?  They’re crying out for a new RB there but then that was the case last season too and they didn’t get one so maybe they’ll go back to the well of Gore one more year.  Peterson and Lynch are both much better deals.  Although AP doesn’t have a team yet I don’t expect that to last and he should be at least a goal-line back wherever he lands which offers decent value.  Lynch was a gamble when Chris signed him (being retired as he was) but all the signs now point to him being at least Oakland’s short-yardage back for the coming season which, even sharing the load with Jalen Richard and Deandre Washington, has value.  Just ask Latavius Murray.

DynaHard also added some mediocre to terrible wide receivers to their options too.  Tavon Austin hasn’t done it up to this point and doesn’t look like he’s about to start now, Kenny Britt is wince-inducing bye week cover at best and Mohammed Sanu can probably be relied upon for 3 or 4 points most weeks which is something I suppose.  Mike Wallace is the only one of the bunch that has much upside but a lot will depend on Baltimore’s draft moves there.  Overall I like this bunch a whole lot more than the RBs, mostly because they’re all cheap deals.  Yeah, they’re pretty terrible players but if one of them is a usable WR3 then it’s a decent result.  Antonio Gates is a move I like better.  A cheap deal for a guy who should still end the season as a good TE2 at least.  Gates will be solid bye-week and injury cover at least, if not more.

Chris was pretty set on defence, having one of the best units in the league, and his tinkering around the edges here are all decent business.  In Arizona Calais Campbell was hit and miss but usually ended the season on the cusp of DE1 at least.  In Jacksonville you have to think he’ll play more than two-thirds of the defensive snaps so the floor of his production goes up and hopefully his 30+ point ceiling remains intact.  For all that, he did just sign an FA deal with Jacksonville so he’ll probably score about 17 points over the season and spend most of it on the beach.  Thomas Davis and Ryan Kerrigan are both good LB pick-ups.  They each have LB1 ceilings if they have a good season (though the chances of Davis doing that at his age are diminished) and add good depth to the team.

That’s it for my 2017 free agency review.  If you got this far then thanks for reading and if you have any thoughts or comments feel free to post them here on the huddle but please bear in mind I couldn’t give a shit what you think.

2017 Free Agency Review: Peter

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I love the smell of free agency in the morning.  Just like in the NFL, the Dynabowl is split between the haves and the have nots as half the team throw their cap space around like a cat in a bag and the other half count their pennies looking for that $2 linebacker that will really propel them to the next level.  Below is a slipshod, poorly thought out review of free agency in 2017.

I know free agency isn’t done yet.  Shut your hole.  Disclaimer: I haven’t looked at or included the majority of the small deals in this piece.  Mostly because I’m lazy.

Tamworth Two

Rex Burkhead (NEP, RB) – $1, 3 years
Doug Baldwin (SEA, WR) – $48, 2 years
Cameron Brate (TBB, TE) – $22, 4 years

A quiet free agency so far for T2 as their cap-strapped status shows through.  Goody and Mat moved to address two problem areas though with Baldwin added to a lackluster stable of middling talent at WR and Brate joining Eric Ebron to add to a depleted TE pool.  Doug Baldwin seems like a decent value here as he has shown high-end production for the last two years.  You could question how good he would be in another team (or, rather, how well he would be used) but the 2 year deal recognises those questions and minimises the risk.  Cameron Brate is a huge overpay in my book.  At $22 you are expecting him to be the top 5 TE he was last year every year and with Tampa expected to draft a TE high I wouldn’t be comfortable about his future.

Of the smaller deals, Rex Burkhead is the one who stands out.  T2 moved quickly to lock Burkhead down when he didn’t have a team and gambled on his landing spot.  He ended up in New England and with the Patriots moving on from Blount, looking unconvinced by Dion Lewis and seeing James White as a purely receiving back he could get a big opportunity to impress there.  Nothing is certain and Burkhead will have to fight his way up the depth chart but if he can do it then this deal could be a huge steal.

The Sadness

Eli Manning (NYG, QB) – $8, 2 years
Eli Rogers (PIT, WR) – $4, 4 years
Pierre Garcon (SFO, WR) – $2, 3 years
Akiem Hicks (CHI, DE) – $2, 3 years
Tyrann Mathieu (ARI, S) – $15, 5 years

The Sadness really started to turn a corner last season and, perhaps mindful of some expensive extensions to come, Geoffrey Manboob did not swing big in the free agent market.  With the loss of Brees there was a big hole at QB and Eli Manning, though an imperfect solution, goes some way to filling it.  The Sadness are carrying 6 quarterbacks currently (Glennon, Goff, Alex Smith, Osweiler and Bridgewater) and none inspire confidence.  If Manning is as unconvincing as last season then this could turn into a game of whackamole as Geoffrey tries to guess which QB will be competent from one week to the next.  Rogers and Garcon are a couple of nice, cheap deals at WR.  Neither has an elite ceiling but both could be very solid contributors and nice trade pieces if the right situation arises.  Garcon in particular could easily end up in the top 25 at WR as the number 1 target in San Francisco and you aren’t kicking that out of bed for 2 bucks.

Only two moves stood out for me defensively.  Akiem Hicks has been playing well in Chicago’s front seven and was a top 10 DE last season.  In short, exactly the kind of player you may as well bet $2 on in free agency.  Mathieu is a bigger risk and a bigger question mark.  If he plays 16 games in a season he will be worth that money but with a few big injuries in his past now his health has to be a major concern.

Dynasore Losers

Jalen Richard (OAK, RB) – $17, 3 years (still active at time of writing)
Marqise Lee (JAC, WR) – $11, 4 years
Marvin Jones (DET, WR) – $13, 2 years
Ndamakung Suh (MIA, DT) – $49, 2 years
Robert Quinn (LAR, DE) – $8, 4 years
Kurt Coleman (CAR, S) – $11, 3 years (still active at time of writing)
Bradley McDougald (TBB, S) – $4, 4 years

With cap space to burn, GM David Slater seems to have gone free agent crazy this off-season.  RB is a clear area of need for the Losers and Richard (if won) showed flashes last year but the money seems off the charts here to me for a player who isn’t likely to escape RBBC.  The Losers do also have DeAndre Washington on their roster so maybe this is an aggressive move to lock down that backfield but I wouldn’t bet against the Raiders bringing in another player in FA or the draft to add yet more uncertainty to the mix.  Lee and Jones are a pair of WRs who offer a bit of depth at WR but it must be asked if this was really needed.  As Slater himself will tell you if you open up a 3 second pause on conversation, he has a lot of talent at the position already.  Jones’ numbers from last season look fine but he was not a reliable week-to-week proposition and Marqise Lee is as likely to disappear down the depth chart again as he is to have another top 30 season.

There are two real eye openers on defence with the Losers going aggressively after Suh and, bizarrely, Kurt Coleman.  Suh is a lot of money but he does, at least, have a top level ceiling that could pay off in spades.  Kurt Coleman, on the other hand, is a fairly run of the mill safety who was picked up off waiver wires in both of the last two seasons and now becomes a top 5 paid player at his position.  Perhaps both of these moves are intended by Slater merely to push up extension costs for other players at their position but, if so, I don’t quite get the logic at safety.  Robert Quinn is the Losers’ best move of free agency.  Like Tyrann Matheiu above he is a player who can really perform above and beyond at his position when healthy but unlike Mathieu he is being paid at a very reasonable rate.  Slater can afford to front-load all his guarantee and proceed for the next 4 years knowing he has a player who can be cut for nothing but,if fit, has the potential to be top 3 at his position.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG, DE) – $22, 2 years

With arguably the weakest roster in the league and plenty of cap space it’s no surprise to see Pete Conaghan making a big splash in the… in… in Free…

Oh

I can only assume Pete was busy with real life while all this was going on.

In defence of the Dungeoneers, they were probably the team with the fewest players released in free agency and thus didn’t need to fill out their roster too much but it’s hard to believe that the squad couldn’t have benefited from some of the players on offer.

Here Comes The Brees

Drew Brees (NOS, QB) – $Whatever needed paying, forever (wait, what?  They didn’t?  And he calls himself a fan!)
Torrey Smith (PHI, WR) – $1, 3 years
Robby Anderson (NYJ, WR) – $3, 3 years
JJ Nelson (ARI, WR) – $7, 3 years
Lorenzo Alexander (BUF, LB) – $2, 2 years
Christian Kirksey (CLE, LB) – $9, 4 years
Jonathan Cyprien (JAC, S) – $3, 3 years

With big extensions looming the Brees were a little limited in free agency this season and prioritised moves to bolster their perennial Achilles’ heel at wide receiver.  I like all three deal to varying degrees.  Torrey Smith is the best value here.  He will be a starting wide receiver in Philadelphia and it feels difficult to hold his San Francisco wilderness years against him with the shitshow on offence there.  For $1 there is zero risk here and plenty of reward.  Robby Anderson is by no means guaranteed to get plenty of snaps in New York but he really came on at the end of last season and, particularly if the team cuts Decker, he could be in line for a bigger piece of the pie.  JJ Nelson is the deal I like the least.  Carson Palmer is done and the Cardinals have no plan B.  Add to that the fact that Nelson could not prove himself reliable last season and you have a speedy receiver with a lot of variance.  It’s not a particularly expensive deal though so there’s not a huge risk.

On the other side of the ball Lorenzo Alexander may have been a flash in the pan but why wouldn’t you take a chance on him repeating some of that production for $2.  Cyprien is another solid move on the defensive side as he has shown himself to be a steady if unspectacular performer and someone that you can drop in each week you need to and feel happy with his floor.  Kirksey is the biggest gamble of the Brees’ free agency as he is a lineback who has yet to really prove he can perform to a high level.  He has shown flashes, however, and is still only 24 so has plenty of room to grow.  I think it’s unlikely he consistently performs to a level that is greater than replacement however.

 

Guest Previews 2015 – The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness by Max Cubberley

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The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

2014 Record: 5-8, last place in Peter, 9th in points for, last in potential points, 9th in all play, improved to 7th in the loser ladder

Off-season Review

It really was a back and forth battle all last season. One week one team had the edge, the next week it was the other team. Both sets of players, and their GMs, put in a monumental effort to outdo the other in a contest that had the rest of us on the edges of our seats but ultimately only one team could finish bottom of Peter and the Sadness just pipped the Dungeoneers to the post. Regardless of that, Geoffrey Manboob went into the off-season knowing he had a big job on his hands.

Unfortunately the Peach Shadow seemed to take that literally and went for quantity rather than quality in free agency with 23 players joining up for a gruelling evaluation process in training camp, the most notable names including Darrelle Revis and Brandon LaFell. Of those 23 not many survived. Josh Hill adds a splash of potential at TE and Bruce Irvin and Damontre Moore may turn into solid additions but, overall, free agency has all the colour and movement of a candy floss machine with all the attendant substance. At least they didn’t lose anyone significant with Riley Cooper, Justin Smith and Greg Jennings the only notable names to be cut or released.

Heading into the draft, the Sadness did not look any stronger than last season but if MANGBOOB disappointed in free agency he showed his nous in the cut-throat, split-second world of dynasty drafting. The haul of young talent wasn’t particularly exciting with Ameer Abdullah, Matt Jones and Jaelen Strong the three main prospects to emerge but the GM’s manoeuvring also brought Eddy Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Sheldon Richardson and Markus Wheaton in. Richardson’s subsequent legal troubles cast something of a pall on that move but in getting Lacy and Osweiler for 1.02, Manboob pulled off the deal of the year, maybe even the decade.

In other trade-related business the Sadness revealed the depth of belief they have in Teddy Tinyhands as a future star QB by trading Cam Newton to the Dungeoneers with Drew Brees coming the other way to smooth the transition for Bridgeater.

Improvement: The Sadness already had one of the strongest WR groups in the league and they come into the new season with an upgrade at QB and a huge one at RB. The sore thumb on the roster is Montee Ball at $49 but even there we could see a happy ending as if the lad goes 4 weeks without a team he can be released with none of that guaranteed salary sticking on the Sadness’ wage bill thanks to being cut by the Broncos. They finished 10th in average offensive points per game last season and they should see a huge improvement there in the new season.

Regression: When I say that there are no areas of the Sadness that look weaker you shouldn’t read too much into that. It would have been harder for some areas of the team to get weaker. The defence is largely untouched from the unit that averaged the 9th lowest score last season and it would take a lot of squinting to see how it would improve on that with the group of players there. The Sadness focused on improving the offence in the off-season and will be hoping that will cover the defensive deficiencies for a year.

Prediction: I don’t necessarily see too much of an improvement in standings for the Sadness and think they could well finish 5-8 or maybe 6-7 again, being towards the bottom end of Peter. What I do expect is for them to be competitive in most games and bridge a lot of the gap that existed between them and the Dungeoneers and the rest of the league.

Guest Previews 2015 – Here Comes the Brees by Max Cubberley

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2014 Record: 8-5, 2nd in Peter, 6th in points for, 6th in potential points, 7th in All Play, lost in Superb Owl final

Offseason Review

It’s been a while so let’s just refresh ourselves with that line up above there.  6th in points for, 6th in potential points and 7th in all play yet Here Comes the Brees limped all the way to the Superb Owl.  Given that they got steamrollered by the Firebirds in the main event though the question is: was last season’s unlikely success actually a hindrance to the Brees?  Receiving late draft picks because of it put them in the unenviable position of having a sparse roster and a lack of premium young talent to replenish.  It has been a long, uncomfortable summer for Ben Archer and Dan Sayles.

One of the more active teams on the trade market, the Brees have attempted to turn areas of surplus strength on the defence or untrusted commodities into skill position improvements.  Out have gone Marcell Dareus (not needed with Aaron Donald ready to step up this season), Kendall Wright, Corey Brown, Martellus Bennett and Roy Helu to be replaced with Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West, Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, DeSean Jackson and a smattering of draft picks.  It’s a lot of churn but the question could be asked of whether the overall quality of the team has really improved that much.

In free agency the odd decision was taken to recruit Owen Daniels, another TE to add to a stable that already included Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz and Martellus Bennett.  Even with Bennett’s departure, TE did not seem to be an area requiring much investment and although Daniels lands in a good and familiar situation that roster spot could perhaps have been better used elsewhere.  Apart from that the Brees only invested capital in upgrading their linebackers, bringing in Nigel Bradham and Pernell McPhee.  Bradham’s addition will not excite, he’s a run-of-the-mill depth option, but Pernell McPhee is a good addition.  Although he’s seen only limited snaps in his career to date he has a high ceiling as a pass rusher and could prove a shrewd addition.

The trend of investing in skill positions continued in the draft with the first 4 picks going on Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Philip Dorsett and Maxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Williams.  At the time the Brees must have hoped that Coleman and Perriman at least would be in a position to contribute straight away but, heading into week 1, Coleman seems to be behind Freeman in Atlanta (although the Brees do at least have Freeman) and Perriman is injured.  Dorsett hasn’t established himself as the Colts #3 option yet and Williams is a 1st year TE so it would be unfair to set too high expectations.  For all that, there is a nice mix of talent and situations there and, looking longer-term, the draft looks positive, particularly with the addition of defensive Swiss Army Knife Shaq Thompson and Jordan Hicks, though whether the Brees needed more linebackers is a question that could be asked (although who am I to judge?)

Areas of Improvement: The Brees have scraped together some talent at RB now though they can’t be happy with the number of committees they’re working with (Atlanta, Cleveland and Tampa, at least to some extent).  WR still looks like a barren wasteland with the uncertainty around Victor Cruz and Pierre Garcon but DeSean Jackson provides a big ceiling each week and there are some young lottery tickets that may pay off in Charles Johnson, Perriman (when fit) and the two Jacksonville receivers.

Areas of Regression: Focusing so heavily on offence leaves the defensive side of the Brees roster looking underwhelming.  The loss of Dareus removes depth and flex options and, even with the additions, the selection of linebackers is very ho-hum.  Money invested into Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett needs to come off this season for the Brees to hold their own on this side of the ball.

Prediction: With few off-season moves set to make a big splash straight away you have to say that the best case scenario would be for the Brees to go 6-7 and finish in the position where their points total should have had them last year.  More likely would be 5-8 or even 4-9 and a high pick in next year’s draft.

Guest Previews 2015 – East Flanders Dungeoneers by Ian Kulkowski

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East Flanders Dungeoneers

2014 record

5-8, 4th in Peter.  last in Points for, 9th in Potential Points, last in all play, lost 3 loser ladder rounds to finish last overall.

Firstly, massive Kudos to Pete Conaghan for being willing to take on the total disaster that was the East Flanders franchise.  With Phil’s untimely demise some point before the draft this team was doomed from the start.   Pete has wasted no time in ringing the changes and the current roster bears little resemblance to the one he inherited (particularly on offence with only 9 players surviving from last years roster – including kicker Parkey).

Let’s have a look at how all of these changes have impacted the Dungeoneers prospects for 2015.

Improvement

Pete’s strategy is a long term one, focusing particularly on getting younger on offence.  This is evidenced in the QB position, where the ageing Brees was sacrificed for the longer term potential of Cam Newton.  This move was enhanced with the addition of Tannehil for a few guys picked up off waivers and a back up TE.  This now gives the Dungeoneers a good balance of steady & spectacular at the position.

WR is where the big improvement comes.  The Dungeoneers now boast a receiving corps with an average age of just 24 and stacked with exciting prospects.  With Adams, Allen, Cooper & Marshall the likely starting quartet there’s a chance this could turn out to be one of the best receiving units now, never mind in a few years time.

Regression

All of Conagan’s tinkering has come at a cost.  And that is a big gaping hole at RB that is surely so big it renders any chance of the Dungeoneers competing this year impossible.  Although Pete felt like he had no choice for the long term benefit of he team I find it impossible to justify the trade of Lacy – the team’s one and only stud for the second overall pick.  There is only the slimmest of chances that Lacy delivers less value going forward than White / Cooper and the WR group looks to be strong enough without one of those.

What’s left at RB is a starting pair of Forsett & Blount Hyde and not a great deal in reserve (Hillman, Jennings, Sproles & Woodhead as backup)  This will definitely be Pete’s area of focus with his early picks in next years draft.

Ceiling

WR’s alone will not be enough to carry this team, if Adams makes the most of his opportunity in GB and Allen bounces back to his rookie form then there is potential to break even and finish just outside the playoff positions. The ceiling should get higher in future years as the core Pete has put in place should give solid foundation for years to come.

Floor

There is very little (if any) star quality on the roster at the moment so the floor is a low one.  A repeat of last years showing may well turn out to be a good return if the team doesn’t develop as Pete would hope.  No matter.  This team is it for the long haul.

Prediction

5-8.  A repeat of last years performance with some improving WR’s being offset by a vacuum at RB.  But look out.  If Pete can sort that position out in the next few years this team has the foundation to be a contender.

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