Author: Commish

About Commish

I am the Commissioner of the DynaBowl Fantasy Football Dynasty League. What I say goes.

THE 2024 DYNABOWL DRAFT ENTRANCE SURVEY

The draft entrance survey makes an eagerly awaited, and mildly abridged, return for 2024. I asked all the GMs a few questions about the upcoming draft and, of those who bothered to answer, all but one trusted me not to look at those answers. However, the delay in getting this up and out to you all is only partially down the need to track down the elusive password.

First up, for the third time in a row, it’s the ‘Predict the First Round’ round, with 5 points for an exact match, 3 for a close(ish) match and a single point if the player at least went in the first round, but you weren’t that close. Kelkowski comes into the 2024 on the back of winning in 2022 and jointly winning in 2023. Will they make it a three-peat? There are two other pertinent records – only once before has someone got all ten players that were taken in the first round right, and the most points anyone has got is 33, by Kelkowski in 2022. Will those come into play, or does Checkhov’s meaningless draft survey gun mean nothing to me? Read on…

There we have it. Perhaps a measure of how locked in this draft was, with some clear talent at the top and then a whole load of shit no one wanted later on. Three GMs beat the old record, while the Bombermen named all 10 players to go in the first round. But our 2024 draft prediction champ is Chris of the Hard, narrowly pipping perennial draft prognosticator Ian, of Kelkowksi fame.

A handful of minor observations – Tamworth having 2 QBs in the first round, which I don’t think has ever happened; Losers had Corum as the first RB going, when he was actually the third at slot 2.05; everyone nailed the first overall pick, which weasn’t difficult, and all but one Nabers and Odunze in either second or third, with the Brees thinking Worthy would make it to third on the back of being drafted by the Chiefs; the Hurricanes were the only team to think a defensive player was going in the first round, and they doubled down on that; and finally, TT thought Troy Franklin was going 5th to the Brees, when actually he went 28th to Kelkowski. Would love to know where that came from.

2) If everything breaks right for you, who would you come away with with each of your first 5 picks? Be realistic, no picking the top 5 players in the draft.

Last year there was plenty of delusion – from the Bombermen thinking Anthony Richardson might fall to the top of the fifth round (actually 1.07), to other people thinking players would fall later in the draft too (but none were quite as optimistic as the Bombermen). Let’s see if anyone was more realistic this time?

Starting with the Tamworth Two

Pretty reasonable, really. Except failing to nominate players for the later picks. And even managed to get Javon Baker a round later than hoped for. Not massively far out on the top two wide receivers – the exercise is about ‘if everything breaks right for you’ after all, rather than being 100% realistic.

Right, onto the Losers

Again, a pretty reasonable set of hopes there – maybe even pessimistic given some of the desired players didn’t go until later. The Losers gave up Brandin Cooks to the Dungeoneers in order to take Kneeland at 5.01, but obviously that slot wasn’t on the prediction list.

Someone who definitely wasn’t pessimistic in their approach to this exercise was Neil of the Hurricanes. It’s possible to argue he was a little too optimistic, mind you.

I mean, there’s ‘everything breaking right for you’ and a near universal top 3 pick falling to 6th, the consensus top running back falling to the middle of the second, and possibly the two most desirable defensive players falling to the third and fourth rounds. But hey, we can all dream, I suppose.

Falling somewhere in between reasonable and in-what-world-was-that-going-to-happen is the Hard.

It might be interesting in the locker room for Odunze to find out Nabers was the desired pick, but calling the Bowers trade and pick was good. The delusion comes in when we look at that last pick – Byron Murphy. He turned out to be the first defensive player taken as 2.01 and I struggle to imagine a world where he made it out of round 2, let alone the end of the fourth.

The Brees! They clearly didn’t really know what they wanted beyond the first round, where they were just pipped…

Disappointing lack of thought when it came to the later picks, and disappointing they didn’t leap on Corley in the third, for reasons we’ll come to, when we talk about the Bombermen. But that will have to wait.

Why? Because now it’s time for the Bombermen.

Three of the four picks they missed out on were players taken only a few picks earlier, perhaps most notably Edgerin Cooper, being sniped at 3.05. Marshawn Lloyd is the only stretch there. In a better draft class for RBs I could see him falling further, but it was rather a weak one so it’s understandable he went where he did.

Finally it’s Kelkowski, who were probably just as frustrated as the Bombermen with the amount of sniping that went on…

Missed out on two players by one slot, though it’s possible they got the better fantasy QB in Daniels than the man they’d hoped for at 2.08.

Q3-5) Stuff ’bout tradin’, innit.

It’s at this point that we bid a fond farewell to Kelkowski, who declined to answer any further questions.

What we wanted to know was how many trades would take place, which pick would be the earliest traded, and any other comments. So here we go:

Very optimistic that there would be 10 trades. As it turned out, there were but 4. Chris was, perhaps unsurprisingly, most accurate in which pick would be the first to go, given he traded for 1.04 using 1.10. The Hurricanes got the number of trades right, while the Bombermen were kind of vaguely vindicated with the comments.

Q6) Which position are you most keen to pick up to be a contributor for this season?

Looks like the Losers and Tamworth did the best at fulfilling what they were hoping for, with everyone else getting a bit of it but perhaps not being fully satisfied with the hauls.

Q7) Which player are you most keen to get/most likely to reach for?

It’s not often I am filled with utter contempt for my fellow GMs – once or twice a week max (not Max), during the offseason is all, but I have been seething since I read some of these responses.

This question, on the questionnaire, has the following small print (now appearing as big print):

This is about the player your most likely to take too early just in case someone else gets in there before you. You shouldn’t name anyone you think will go in the first 2 rounds.

THE ONLY POSSIBLE WAY ODUNZE COULD REMOTELY HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED A REACH IS IF HE WENT 1 OVERALL, AND EVEN THEN THERE WOULD BE WAYS TO JUSTIFY IT.

I suppose another way might have been to spend a shit load of picks to move up and get him, but then that’s an overpay, not a reach. Ben, Stew and Neil need to look at the other players named, read that small print, and think long and hard about what they’ve done wrong.

Q8) Who will be the first QB taken, and with which pick?

Possibly the most boring question (hotly contested title) with the Bombermen and Brees being equally close and the Hurricanes being way off.

I’ve said Williams at 1.09 above, but I would not be surprised if Daniels was the one to go because of the running threat. I also don’t feel great about him going in the first round. I feel like I’m out of step with the league’s ratings of QBs. I don’t think there’s great value in taking one in the first, but it feels like someone always goes earlier than I expect.

Bombermen GM, Benjamin Hendy

Q9) Who will be the first defensive player taken and when will they go?

No one got the player, but no one was that far out slot-wise…

Probably Laiatu Latu, on the basis of him being the first defensive player taken in the actual draft. Probably 2.04?

Hard GM, Chris Braithwaite

Laiatu Latu – we quite often follow NFL draft order and he was the first one off the board landing in a spot where he’ll be able to rush the passer as a primary threat. Late in the second, I was going to say 19th, but that’s my pick and I won’t be taking him, so 18th.

Losers GM, David Slater

Q10-12) Winners, Losers and Self-Assessment

Some comments on winners:

Probably Adam, on the basis of having the #1 pick – Chris, Hard GM

Either Chris or Adam – two top 10 picks for Chris will give him a good chance to land two guys, and if Adam gets a good player who’s fallen at 11 (e.g. Jonathon Brooks) that’ll be a great looking opening – Dave, Losers GM

Adam makes a spectacular entrance by winning the draft, basically because he got Harrison jnr – Ben, Bombermen GM

Comments on losers (not Losers):

Goody. He doesn’t have a 1st round pick, has lots of holes and a tendency to reach – Chris, Hard GM

TT because they don’t have a first round pick and some of you don’t get that you should judge a team’s draft based on the capital they had coming in – Ben, Bombermen GM

And some self-assessment comments:

Near the bottom – always do due to fewer picks – James, Tamworth GM

Probably about 4th, unless I can swing a trade to get 2 of the top 4 – Chris, Hard GM

I’ve got the 9th pick, so I’m fighting an uphill battle – Slatz, Losers GM

Solidly mid-table – Ben, Bombermen GM

Q13) How long will the draft last?

The only question that matters, and it was closely fought this year with two GMs just 5 seconds apart, while the Bombermen did their best to elongate the draft as much as possible to almost twice as long as they had predicted.

So the Hard were closest by those extra five seconds.

It did not go unnoticed that the two closest guesses were basically 876 and 8765.

So there we have it. The entrance survey is over, and with no comments expressing frustration with any of the questions or the overall duration. Which was a pleasant surprise.

And the 2024 Dynabowl Champions Are…

Another year, another title goes to Tim. Title Tim as the Division is now known. 10 seasons, 8 titles. And this year it’s a second title for Chris Braithwaite and Dyna Hard, who knocked off David Slater’s Dynasore Losers by 65 points. The 4th closest final was pretty much done and dusted after a 55 point victory in the first leg and then put their feet up for the second. Hard’s 392.645 is the 8th highest winning score. Pitiful really, but that’s all that was needed to knock off the challenge from Peter.

To join Chris in celebrating the victory is Buffalo Bills’ interception hero and LA Rams super bowl winning safety, Taylor Rapp…

Championship Game Statistics

It’s the middle of the season, so what better time to look back at championships past and see if there’s anything remotely interesting from a statistical point of view. And failing that, find some boring things from a statistical point of view to share.

We’ve all seen the records, of course, so there’s no need to regurgitate the results. Instead, let’s look at different numbers. Like, do teams score more points in the final now?

Errr…. No…

Teams that win the final are scoring less, while teams that lose the final are scoring… incredibly consistently (if we ignore the Brees in 2014). It’s good news for excitement – there’s only been one comeback victory (Dyna Hard, 2017) but at least there are closer matches. The second legs of the last three finals – 2020-2022 – have all been won by the team that lost the first leg, after both legs were won by the same team in five of the first 6 finals.

But how about the split of total points across the two legs?

Only two of the nine finals have had more points scored in the first leg than the second. Rather than getting used to each other and neutralising each others attacks, it seems that familiarity breeds explosive offense and an eye for the opponents defensive weaknesses. Or maybe that was a conclusion we could draw if these were actual teams actually facing each other, rather than random players unaware of the importance of their performance in the Dynabowl world.

We can also see, in the top chart, that total points rose to 2018 and have been falling since then. Someone who cares more would probably go back and check the scoring changes we put in place to see if they align.

I can be bothered to do one quick check though. There’s a ranked list of total points scored, per team, per season. Because there’s been an extra game since 2021, we can’t quite compare like for like, but for total points scored to the end of week 16, 9 of the top 20 team seasons have been after 2018, while 11 of the bottom 20 seasons have come in the same period.

Given there were five seasons in the ‘high scoring finals period’ (2014-2018) and only 4 since, this might indicate a slight drop in scoring overall. Especially as the 6 worst seasons were all between 2020 and 2022.

So there we have it – finals are more exciting (CLOSER GAMES) and less exciting (FEWER POINTS) than ever!

Seeding! Does it matter?

What I mean by that is, are the higher seeds more likely to win the title? Let’s take a look…

NB: Third/Fourth determined by third place playoffs

I’m kind of astonished that no one has looked at this before. The abject failure of the number 2 seed to do anything notable at any point is pretty crazy. It took until 2022 for the second seed to win a 2-game match-up (ie the final or 3rd place playoff). The first seed dominance of the past 4 years is also a surprise. In fact, the first seed has always won the 2-game match-up, and in 7 of those 9 years that has been against the number 2 seed.

The run of wins by number 3 seeds also seems like a bit of a surprise. However, in 2016, Kelkowski held the same record as the #1 seed Bombermen (and the #4 seed Hard), in 2017 Dyna Hard were a game behind the #1 seed Hurricanes (then Firebirds), but were league top scorers, 50 points ahead of the #1 seed, while in 2018 the number one seeds were the 13-0 Dyna Hard, who were destined to fail.

Just out of curiosity, I assigned 3 points for a win, 2 for runner-up, 1 for third and 0 for 4th. The number 1 seed gets 19 points, #2 gets 7, #3 17 and the fourth seed gets 11 points. That should really put things in perspective. Idle speculation and shit-stirring, but the top two seeds go to the winners of Peter and Tim. Guess what, 7 out of 9 #1 seeds have come from Tim, bookended by Peter (Losers in 2014, Brees in 2022).

Red for Peter, blue for Tim

Using the patented 3 for a win, 2 for runner-up, 1 for third scoring system, Tim clocks in with 33 points while Peter only racks up 21 across the nine years, but then with only two titles to show for it – both coming in years when the division managed to send 3 teams to the playoffs – that’s probably to be expected.

So back to the exam question – does seeding matter? Only in so much as the second seed was usually from Peter and they usually lost. What matters most is that the team come from Tim.

Double Hundreds

3 teams have scored at least 200 in both legs of the final, the Hurricanes (né Firebirds) in 2014, Champions in 2015 and the Dungeoneers in 2018. No teams have won the title without scoring 200 in at least one leg (though the Champions really pushed that in 2020, scoring 200.145 in the second leg), while only one losing team has managed to score 200 or more in a single leg of the final (the Tamworth Two in that same final against the Champions in 2020).

Regular Season Results Between Finalists

Every year, every team will play every other team at least once. Twice if they are in the same conference, once in the other conference, though since 2021 teams have had a second game against one team from the other conference.

The table below shows the match-ups in the final and the regular season record between the two teams.

Only once has the team winning the final not beaten their opponents at least once in the regular season. That came in 2019 when the Bombermen used the playoffs as a revenge tour. Having gone 11-2 in the regular season they beat Tamworth Two in the playoff semi-final before knocking off the Dungeoneers in the final – those were the only two teams to beat them during the regular season. Is this more impressive than Dyna Hard going 13-0 and then losing the playoff semi-final in 2018? Almost certainly.

What Can We Learn?

Want to win a title? If you make the playoffs, ideally be the first seed and, if not, be the third seed. Try not to be in Peter and make sure you beat your opponent at least once during the regular season, and score 200 in at least one game week.

Basic Draft Analysis

Ever wanted to understand Dynabowl Drafts better? Well, we’re here to make that much, much harder.

Here’s some basic “analysis” of the nine Dynabowl drafts to have taken place so far. The dataset will be available at the bottom of this article for you to download and do your own review. But you MUST read it all first. Standard rules – no downloading without reading.

A couple of reminders – in the first three drafts – 2015-2017 – we only had 7 rounds, before ramping things up to 12 in 2018. That’ll likely skew a few bits, but hey.

Let’s start things off with some simple counting. How many players of each position have we drafted each year?

Would you look at that. And what do we take away from all that? I don’t know. Take away what you will. CBs are the least popular, though a big jump in 2023, reacting to the change in contract guarantees to prevent streaming, perhaps? The last couple of years have seen 5 special teamers taken after 7 were taken in total in the first 7 years, but more punters than kickers taken is, well, not interesting but mildly notable perhaps?

Excepting 2015, we’ve been pretty consistent in the percentage of defensive players taken, and 2023 seeing the second most taken in a draft ever. It’s still slightly more offense focused, but not by a huge margin.

Maybe it’s more interesting to look at who’s gone for what positions…

The Dungeoneers loves a punter.

The Sadness have taken more RBs and WRs than anyone else, but have also had at 13 more picks than every other team as well.

The Brees have taken nearly double the number of safeties than anyone else, which is pretty astonishing, and 20% of all the safeties ever taken, while the Dungeoneers have taken 23.5% of all CBs ever taken.

Just by position group, two teams have spent more than half their picks on defense…

… while Dyna Hard just could not care less about defense.

In terms of rounds, where do the players get taken?

Perhaps unsurprisingly, it takes a while for defensive players to really get going in the league. Just 6.7% of first round picks go on that side of the ball, and it takes to round 3 to get close to the overall average – 41.1% vs an average of 43.4%.

Rounds 4, 6, and 8-10 all have more than 50% of their picks going on the defense.

Finally, what draft slot is the first player at each position taken?

DT has slowly risen in the rankings, moving from 51, into the 30s fairly consistently, the teens and twenties and finally the first round in 2023. DE and LB have both shifted up a bit as well, with a clear change in mindset from 2019 onwards on the DE front.

RB has gone first every year bar 2021 – the Kyle Pitts year – while WR has been consistently high, with an exception in 2018 where, astonishingly, it took until pick 9 for Calvin Ridley to be selected. That year opened with 8 RBs – Barkley, Guice, Ronald Jones, Penny, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, and Kerryon Johnson. Two decent picks there, ahead of Ridley and DJ Moore roudning out the first.

Worth noting that in the last 4 drafts, the Sadness have been the first to take a TE – Trautman (2020, 34th), Pitts (2021, 1st), McBride (2022, 42nd), Kincaid (2023, 14th).

Anyway, here’s where you can download the data and do your own analysis. As ever, you’re welcome to send your ‘insights’ in and have them published on the site for us all to enjoy.