The draft entrance survey makes an eagerly awaited, and mildly abridged, return for 2024. I asked all the GMs a few questions about the upcoming draft and, of those who bothered to answer, all but one trusted me not to look at those answers. However, the delay in getting this up and out to you all is only partially down the need to track down the elusive password.
First up, for the third time in a row, it’s the ‘Predict the First Round’ round, with 5 points for an exact match, 3 for a close(ish) match and a single point if the player at least went in the first round, but you weren’t that close. Kelkowski comes into the 2024 on the back of winning in 2022 and jointly winning in 2023. Will they make it a three-peat? There are two other pertinent records – only once before has someone got all ten players that were taken in the first round right, and the most points anyone has got is 33, by Kelkowski in 2022. Will those come into play, or does Checkhov’s meaningless draft survey gun mean nothing to me? Read on…
There we have it. Perhaps a measure of how locked in this draft was, with some clear talent at the top and then a whole load of shit no one wanted later on. Three GMs beat the old record, while the Bombermen named all 10 players to go in the first round. But our 2024 draft prediction champ is Chris of the Hard, narrowly pipping perennial draft prognosticator Ian, of Kelkowksi fame.
A handful of minor observations – Tamworth having 2 QBs in the first round, which I don’t think has ever happened; Losers had Corum as the first RB going, when he was actually the third at slot 2.05; everyone nailed the first overall pick, which weasn’t difficult, and all but one Nabers and Odunze in either second or third, with the Brees thinking Worthy would make it to third on the back of being drafted by the Chiefs; the Hurricanes were the only team to think a defensive player was going in the first round, and they doubled down on that; and finally, TT thought Troy Franklin was going 5th to the Brees, when actually he went 28th to Kelkowski. Would love to know where that came from.
2) If everything breaks right for you, who would you come away with with each of your first 5 picks? Be realistic, no picking the top 5 players in the draft.
Last year there was plenty of delusion – from the Bombermen thinking Anthony Richardson might fall to the top of the fifth round (actually 1.07), to other people thinking players would fall later in the draft too (but none were quite as optimistic as the Bombermen). Let’s see if anyone was more realistic this time?
Starting with the Tamworth Two…
Pretty reasonable, really. Except failing to nominate players for the later picks. And even managed to get Javon Baker a round later than hoped for. Not massively far out on the top two wide receivers – the exercise is about ‘if everything breaks right for you’ after all, rather than being 100% realistic.
Right, onto the Losers…
Again, a pretty reasonable set of hopes there – maybe even pessimistic given some of the desired players didn’t go until later. The Losers gave up Brandin Cooks to the Dungeoneers in order to take Kneeland at 5.01, but obviously that slot wasn’t on the prediction list.
Someone who definitely wasn’t pessimistic in their approach to this exercise was Neil of the Hurricanes. It’s possible to argue he was a little too optimistic, mind you.
I mean, there’s ‘everything breaking right for you’ and a near universal top 3 pick falling to 6th, the consensus top running back falling to the middle of the second, and possibly the two most desirable defensive players falling to the third and fourth rounds. But hey, we can all dream, I suppose.
Falling somewhere in between reasonable and in-what-world-was-that-going-to-happen is the Hard.
It might be interesting in the locker room for Odunze to find out Nabers was the desired pick, but calling the Bowers trade and pick was good. The delusion comes in when we look at that last pick – Byron Murphy. He turned out to be the first defensive player taken as 2.01 and I struggle to imagine a world where he made it out of round 2, let alone the end of the fourth.
The Brees! They clearly didn’t really know what they wanted beyond the first round, where they were just pipped…
Disappointing lack of thought when it came to the later picks, and disappointing they didn’t leap on Corley in the third, for reasons we’ll come to, when we talk about the Bombermen. But that will have to wait.
Why? Because now it’s time for the Bombermen.
Three of the four picks they missed out on were players taken only a few picks earlier, perhaps most notably Edgerin Cooper, being sniped at 3.05. Marshawn Lloyd is the only stretch there. In a better draft class for RBs I could see him falling further, but it was rather a weak one so it’s understandable he went where he did.
Finally it’s Kelkowski, who were probably just as frustrated as the Bombermen with the amount of sniping that went on…
Missed out on two players by one slot, though it’s possible they got the better fantasy QB in Daniels than the man they’d hoped for at 2.08.
Q3-5) Stuff ’bout tradin’, innit.
It’s at this point that we bid a fond farewell to Kelkowski, who declined to answer any further questions.
What we wanted to know was how many trades would take place, which pick would be the earliest traded, and any other comments. So here we go:
Very optimistic that there would be 10 trades. As it turned out, there were but 4. Chris was, perhaps unsurprisingly, most accurate in which pick would be the first to go, given he traded for 1.04 using 1.10. The Hurricanes got the number of trades right, while the Bombermen were kind of vaguely vindicated with the comments.
Q6) Which position are you most keen to pick up to be a contributor for this season?
Looks like the Losers and Tamworth did the best at fulfilling what they were hoping for, with everyone else getting a bit of it but perhaps not being fully satisfied with the hauls.
Q7) Which player are you most keen to get/most likely to reach for?
It’s not often I am filled with utter contempt for my fellow GMs – once or twice a week max (not Max), during the offseason is all, but I have been seething since I read some of these responses.
This question, on the questionnaire, has the following small print (now appearing as big print):
This is about the player your most likely to take too early just in case someone else gets in there before you. You shouldn’t name anyone you think will go in the first 2 rounds.
THE ONLY POSSIBLE WAY ODUNZE COULD REMOTELY HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED A REACH IS IF HE WENT 1 OVERALL, AND EVEN THEN THERE WOULD BE WAYS TO JUSTIFY IT.
I suppose another way might have been to spend a shit load of picks to move up and get him, but then that’s an overpay, not a reach. Ben, Stew and Neil need to look at the other players named, read that small print, and think long and hard about what they’ve done wrong.
Q8) Who will be the first QB taken, and with which pick?
Possibly the most boring question (hotly contested title) with the Bombermen and Brees being equally close and the Hurricanes being way off.
I’ve said Williams at 1.09 above, but I would not be surprised if Daniels was the one to go because of the running threat. I also don’t feel great about him going in the first round. I feel like I’m out of step with the league’s ratings of QBs. I don’t think there’s great value in taking one in the first, but it feels like someone always goes earlier than I expect.
Bombermen GM, Benjamin Hendy
Q9) Who will be the first defensive player taken and when will they go?
No one got the player, but no one was that far out slot-wise…
Probably Laiatu Latu, on the basis of him being the first defensive player taken in the actual draft. Probably 2.04?
Hard GM, Chris Braithwaite
Laiatu Latu – we quite often follow NFL draft order and he was the first one off the board landing in a spot where he’ll be able to rush the passer as a primary threat. Late in the second, I was going to say 19th, but that’s my pick and I won’t be taking him, so 18th.
Losers GM, David Slater
Q10-12) Winners, Losers and Self-Assessment
Some comments on winners:
Probably Adam, on the basis of having the #1 pick – Chris, Hard GM
Either Chris or Adam – two top 10 picks for Chris will give him a good chance to land two guys, and if Adam gets a good player who’s fallen at 11 (e.g. Jonathon Brooks) that’ll be a great looking opening – Dave, Losers GM
Adam makes a spectacular entrance by winning the draft, basically because he got Harrison jnr – Ben, Bombermen GM
Comments on losers (not Losers):
Goody. He doesn’t have a 1st round pick, has lots of holes and a tendency to reach – Chris, Hard GM
TT because they don’t have a first round pick and some of you don’t get that you should judge a team’s draft based on the capital they had coming in – Ben, Bombermen GM
And some self-assessment comments:
Near the bottom – always do due to fewer picks – James, Tamworth GM
Probably about 4th, unless I can swing a trade to get 2 of the top 4 – Chris, Hard GM
I’ve got the 9th pick, so I’m fighting an uphill battle – Slatz, Losers GM
Solidly mid-table – Ben, Bombermen GM
Q13) How long will the draft last?
The only question that matters, and it was closely fought this year with two GMs just 5 seconds apart, while the Bombermen did their best to elongate the draft as much as possible to almost twice as long as they had predicted.
So the Hard were closest by those extra five seconds.
It did not go unnoticed that the two closest guesses were basically 876 and 8765.
So there we have it. The entrance survey is over, and with no comments expressing frustration with any of the questions or the overall duration. Which was a pleasant surprise.
