Tag: Jay Kelly

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two

The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through.  This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.

Reality Bites

Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.

2014 Week 2 2014 Standing 2015 Week 2 POA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 1-1 (137 poa) 7-6 1-1 (181 poa) +44
Here Comes the Brees 1-1 (146 poa) 8-5 0-2 (152 poa) +6
Dynasore Losers 2-0 (175 poa) 8-5 2-0 (172 poa) -3
Kelkowski 2-0 (212 poa) 8-5 0-2 (153 poa) -59
Dynablinker Obamamen 0-2 (168 poa) 7-6 0-2 (156 poa) -12
Champions of the Sun 1-1 (181 poa) 6-7 2-0 (192 poa) +11
Tamworth Two 2-0 (185 poa) 6-7 1-1 (167 poa) -18
East Flanders Dungeoneers 1-1 (161 poa) 5-8 2-0 (158 poa) -3
Dynasty of Sadness 0-2 (129 poa) 5-8 0-2 (154 poa) +25
DynaHarder 0-2 (168 poa) 5-8 2-0 (223 poa) +55

So let’s get the good news out of the way.  DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process.  The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.

The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3rd highest score in week 1.

On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.

What Might Have Been

Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.

  2014 Week 2 2015 Week 2 PPOA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 188 ppoa 228 (79% eff) +40
Here Comes the Brees 210 ppoa 228 (67% eff) +18
Dynasore Losers 212 ppoa 244 (70% eff) +32
Kelkowski 265 ppoa 206 (74% eff) -59
Dynablaster Bombermen 233 ppoa 232 (67% eff) -1
Champions of the Sun 204 ppoa 258 (74% eff) +54
Tamworth Two 261 ppoa 216 (77% eff) -45
East Flanders Dungeoneers 212 ppoa 208 (76% eff) -4
Dynasty of Sadness 206 ppoa 211 (73% eff) +5
DynaHarder 250 ppoa 282 (79% eff) +32

The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.

For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.

Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.

In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.

Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.

Guest Previews 2015 – Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules by Pete Conaghan

2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Offseason Review

Like a woolly mammoth trapped in a tar pit, Kelkowski did very little to help their cause in the trade market, adding only two depth signings in Jason Witten and Doug Baldwin. Who knows, if it is the tar pit of the first round of the playoffs, maybe the team is happy with its situation and does not need to move farther. The bones of Andy Dalton look very white against the black, tarry ground.

Which is a roundabout way of asking, have Kelkowski done enough this offseason? In actual fact they may have pulled off the coup of the offseason, snaffling up Sam Bradford’s brittle body and putting it in their quarterback sack. With Bradford looking great in preseason, and as per Chip Kelly, there only being a 10% chance of him snapping something else, it looks like Kelkowski may prosper.

Added to that, the amazing transformation of Blake Bortles from mild-mannered grocery clerk to Superman [ed – Blake Bortles is The Jaguar] over the preseason (don’t laugh), should ensure Kelkowski don’t have to rely on Kaep’s brain or Romo’s back this season. As a bona fide superhero, Bortles should really have a nemesis. It’s a pity Zach Zenner isn’t a defensive end. In which case, the Champions would surely have taken him in the draft.

Kelkowski also had a really good draft, obtaining a three down back in TA Yellow, and what could be the team’s primary WR in Devin Funchess. Randy Gregory and Danny Shelton look to be very good defensive picks.

Where they will improve: All that being said, Kelkowski may not have done enough outside quarterback to see any immediate improvement, but with three top WRs (this includes a certain J. Maclin, who does not care about your fantasy team) they should be just fine.

Where they will regress: Yellow backs up an already-impressive running back corps which has some fragility issues. Foster is out until at least game 4, and DeMarco Murray should have a decreased workload this year, to prevent him being ground into dust, but it’s expected he will continue to run riot in Philadelphia even on reduced carries. Even if those two contribute less, Former Heisman Trophy etc etc is waiting in the wings. But it’s difficult to see the same production this year over the course of the season.

There are some aging pieces on defense, which the team should address.

2015 Prediction: 8-5, playoff final.

2015 Commish Previews: Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Team: Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules – Ian Kulkowski/Jay Kelly

2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Significant Additions:

Draft – TJ Yeldon (RB), Devin Funchess (WR), Randy Gregory (DE), Danny Shelton (DT), Ty Montgomery (WR)

Free Agency – Sam Bradford (QB), Cullen Jenkins (DT), Jay Ratliff (DE)

Trade – Jason Witten (TE), Doug Baldwin (WR)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Joseph Randle (RB), Delanie Walker (TE)

Trade – Stevie Johnson (WR)

Preview:

Kelkowski clocked in as the third highest scorers and the third highest potential scorers in 2014, a feat achieved on the back of a fearsome trident at both RB and WR. First up were Arian Foster, Former Heisman Trophy Winner Mark Ingram Jnr, and DeMarco Murray. Foster is now out for probably the first 6 weeks of the season minimum and while Alfred Blue is also on the roster, the drop in quality is something similar as from Tony Romo to Blake Bortles. FHTWMIJ Is still fit and raring to go at New Orleans but CJ Spiller has come in and will take some of the carries away from him. Meanwhile DeMarco Murray is one of the most intriguing players of the season due to his move to the Eagles. While he’s likely to remain very effective, he will surely see a reduction in carries too as he shares the work with Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. All told, the running backs are looking likely to regress from their dominant position in 2014.

At receiver, they put out Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin, who can be expected to improve, repeat and regress from last season respectively. All told that’s a wash, but I’d be concerned if Johnson missed any more time, while Maclin only has one healthy, truly productive season on which to base predictions so how far he regresses is unknown. That said, he does have Alex Smith to take advantage of his pace down the sidelines.

Beyond that, there’s little depth at WR. Doug Baldwin is in an offence which might look to get more aerial, but has Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett to get past now. Devin Funchess could be in a position to try to emulate Kelvin Benjamin but he’s a converted tight end still learning the role; calling 1000 yards optimistic would be an understatement.

At tight end, Julius Thomas’ performance may shed some light on the long held debate about who is better, Peyton Manning or Blake Bortles, while Jason Witten has been an incredible player for many years but his powers must surely be waning.

The defence is pretty similar to the Bombermen’s, with strength at DE but a lack at DT and a decent balance at LB and CB, and unmatched depth at safety. That said, the Jason Pierre-Paul injury hurts. He had 12.5 sacks last year but you can probably count the number he’ll get this year on the fingers of one… oh. Anyway, if JPP doesn’t like it he can give me the finger. Sorry. That was quite tortured. To be fair, the injury could motivate him to come back with a chip on his shoulder and everyone knows when JPP is in the mood there are fireworks.

Now, just as a palate cleanser, let’s head back to AWE. Kelkowski were the closest thing the league had to a 9 win team in 2014, clocking in at a win expectation of 8.59. They had the greatest likelihood of hitting 8 wins, at 78.1% so definitely merited their place in the playoffs. If anything, these stats suggest they should be looking to move up, not down, but that, of course, doesn’t take into account any of the factors laid out above.

Verdict:

It’s tough to get repeat performances in the NFL. Too many players will have a career year and then regress back to the mean. If everything goes right for Kelkowski they are title contenders, but I just don’t see Foster/Blue, FHTWMIJ, Murray and Maclin all hitting the heights of 2014. In fact, I don’t see any of them doing so. This will still be a strong team who will be in with a shout come the end of the season.

Prediction:

6-7, though that could just as easily be 8-5. Tim is a strong Division and someone ends up being the fall guy. At the end of the day, I think there were one or two too many career years in 2014 for the numbers to repeat, but there’s enough strength here that a playoff spot wouldn’t surprise me either. The problem with predictions in these previews is that they really need to tally and I can’t just say 8-5 about everyone.

Replacement Level: Week 5

by Ian Kulkowski

This should be interesting.  I barely know who half of my own players are let alone the randomly named players who remain in our barren wasteland of a waiver wire.  But as I am somehow 7-1 through the first 4 week’s of both bowls I guess that makes me as qualified as anyone pick some needles from the haystack.

Week 4 Review

Let’s start by reviewing Goody’s performance from last week.

RLW5 - W4 recap

A total of 97 is respectable given the shortage of options due to a heavy bye week.  This is 23 short of the lowest Dynabowl score so not quite competitive.  Looking at the top scorers that were available on the wire last week there was a whopping 351 points!  This shows there is potential out there.  Though the majority of the big scores come from the D where in our league anyone can have a big week at any time.

Goody managed to select 1 of the top scorers in Devin Hester (Andre Holmes would also have been one if we were going with 4 WR’s).

Interestingly when looking at the performance of Goody’s picks from last week it is evident that Max has read the article then gone and picked up most of the players Goody selected.  A devious strategy Indeed!

Let’s see if he goes for the same this week with my stellar picks (more fool him if he does!)

Week 5 Replacements

I’ll start by looking at the D as if I do it the other way around I will be totally bored by the time I get to the end.  We’ll begin with what is according to Dynasty of Sadness GM Geoffrey Manboob the most important position in our IDP league – Safety.

The top scorers so far are Iloka, Moore, Lewis, Adams & Abdullah whilst the top projected scorers this week are Jefferson, Goldson, Demps, Adams & Moore.  So that’s Rahim Moore & Mike Adams in.  The matchups don’t look too bad vs the Cards and Ravens (as long as Steve Smith Senior doesn’t eat him).

All going smoothly so far, let’s move on to corner.  By the same logic Kareem Jackson & Cortez Allen are towards the top of the actual / projected scores table so they’re in.  Allen has perfect matchup vs the Jags so I’m expecting at least 1 pick 6.

Linebackers next.  Everyone is projected the same points at linebacker so I may have to change my tactic here.  I’ll go for Jon Bostic for no other reason than he’s playing the Jags, David Hawthorne (for Jags read Buccs),  And Keenan Robinson (who will have to make a million tackles against the Seahawks).

This is getting difficult now.  And it started so well.  A few guesses coming up (As if they’re not all guesses so far!).  At DE we’ll take Cedric Thornton & Robert Ayers.  DT will be Jonathan Hankins and I don’t fancy any more Defensive Lineman so will go for another Linebacker.  Erm… Demario Davis will do.

That’s the D done.   Projected points 26.5.  Now to the Offence.

At Punter Coulton Schmidt looks like a safe pick.  In fact I might even pick him up.  Max, don’t you dare!  I’ll take Randy Bullock at Kicker.  Just because that sentence had to be written.

There are NO Tight Ends available.  Clay Harbour did okay last week at the chargers so I’ll give him a go vs the Steelers.  Ugh

At WR I’ll take the Browns top target Miles Austin.  He was on Kelkowski’s original roster but didn’t make J’ays exacting standards [read “his name wasn’t crazy, let alone crazy enough for J’ay” – ed] but I’ll give him a shot here.  Sanu has been consistent so far so gets a look.  Jarious Wright seems to have some chemistry with Teddy Bridgeater (let’s hope he plays as I imagine the same can’t be said for Cassel).  Flex play will be Jerricho Cotchery.

Roy Helu has featured more in the receiving game in recent weeks so can try again at RB.  And I’ll see if Antone Smith can repeat his performances of recent weeks.

My Gunslinger will be Ryan Fitzpatrick as I simply can’t take my eyes of that facial hair.

Project points for the Offence is 52.7 giving me a total projection of 79.2.  If there’s one thing I’ve learned so far it’s that projections are always wrong.  So there we go.  I hope you’ve paid attention and learned a thing or two about how to pick a team.

Oh, and I’ve just realised I’m 1 short on offence, will have to be another TE I think.  Jermaine Gresham Maybe.

To recap here’s what we ended up with:

 

QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick

RB – Roy Helu, Antone Smith

WR – Miles Austin, Mohamed Sanu, Jarious Wright, Jerricho Cotchery

TE – Clay Harbour, Jermaine Gresham

PK – Randy Bullock

PN – Coulton Schmidt

 

DT – Jonathan Hankins

DE – Cedric Thornton, Robert Ayers

LB – Jon Bostic, David Hawthorne, Keenan Robinson, Demario Davis

CB – Kareem Jackson, Cortez Allen

S – Rahim Moore, Mike Adams

 

 

Kelkowski, The Birmingham Six, Yewtree, & Me

In the 1970s and 80s there was word on the street of a man, a man like no other. Criminals didn’t dare speak his name. He was like some mad cross between Magnum PI, The A Team, Bergerac and Juliet Bravo. He was Kelkowski. Whenever a crime was solved by dubious means, whenever a criminal disappeared “to the Costa Brava”, whenever a witness to police brutality lost their memory, there was Kelkowski.

Then came the 90s and a spate of high profile legal cases of proven wrongful imprisonment – The Birmingham Six, the Guildford Four, Jeffrey Archer… Well, Archer was originally fitted up and it was dumb luck that he genuinely was guilty. These cases ruined Kelkowski and he left the force. His high profile victories ruined. He found comfort with his friends from the 70s and 80s; respectable men, men of substance, men of charity, men like Dave Lee Travis, Rolf Harris, Jimmy Saville.

After a few more rough years helping colleagues with their enquiries, Kelkowski has finally come forward and gone public to reveal, for perhaps the first time, a genuine shocking truth. Kelkowski is two men, Jay Kelly and Ian Kulkowski, the former of whom has, with the help for friend Jim Davidson, moved himself to the middle east while the latter has retired to the far less welcoming wilds of North Wales. Both are suspicious of the press after two decades of bad publicity and so our conversations become a mess, almost impossible to piece together.

Definitely Not Friends of Kelkowski
Definitely Not Friends of Kelkowski

I started by asking about their relationship with Saville but they quickly asserted they would not be talking about Yewtree or miscarriages of justice or anything any normal person would actually care about, which is how this article ended up where it is – on the league website of a Dynasty Fantasy Football League. What follows may appear to be a mass of contradictions and non-sequitors, it may be disjointed and, in places, unintelligible, but that is perhaps the fairest reflection of the men at the centre of this storm. Don’t expect to read anything you’ll care about in what lies ahead.

I did, however, manage to get a couple of questions in about their beginnings. So how did Kelly and Kulkowski wind up together?

“I’m not sure,” says Kulkowski, confused. “I certainly didn’t choose it.” He sounds a little disgusted with his partner, but he clearly put a brave face on it. “I went away for a while then came back and I was paired with Jay,” he continues, referring to his suspension in 1975 for cocaine possession (unproven). “I’m a team player though so I’m happy working with anyone.”

Kelly, for the record, has a different slant. “We’re a dream team. I look at this as being a perfect partnership. Apart from the time difference. And our past performance. And the lack of organisation within the team. Or having the slightest idea what we’re doing. Still, if you add our combined wins up from the Chatterbowl and our scattergun draft approach in the same competition, we match up with most of our competitors. Individually we didn’t do too well, but combined we will be unstoppable (or much much worse). We have no expectations, other than dominating our opposition on and off the the field. Or not.”

It was at this point I realise they were serious about the whole “No questions about the police stuff, it’s fantasy football all the way” provisos they had laid down, and I considered stopping things right there, but journalistic integrity/the knowledge that I could probably spin this for a quick buck somewhere led me to continue.

Kulkowski continues: “Joint decisions have come easy so far and while I’m sure there will some difficult debates down the road so far everything’s rosy in the Kelkowski garden.”

While they continued to jabber away, I did a quick bit of research and turned up the Chatterbowl league Kelly referred to. Both Kelly and Kulkowski were new members of the fantasy league in 2013, and apparently they are now teaming up to co-manage a Dynasty League team in the DynaBowl and relive the olden days. As new members, was there a steep learning curve and what are they taking from the Chatterbowl into the DynaBowl?

“From my end I found it tough,” says Kelly, “because I’m not some sinister NFL hermit who makes spreadsheets and does in-depth analysis for publications.  Who has the time to watch every single game?  What kind of a sick freak actually watches the combine?”

Tough indeed. My research tells me that between the pair of them, they secured 7 wins in 26 regular season games. A pitiful return. It doesn’t bode well, I say.

“Depends on your definition of success,” says Kelly again, “I drafted guys and I didn’t quit on them, unlike some of my peers.  I also didn’t get trade raped.  I will, however, never forget a tie being turned into a defeat by the racists at the NFL and ESPN.”

Kulkowski has a different persepctive. “Did we really only win 7 games last year? Jay must have been terrible. In my head I did a lot better than that. Though from my perspective I had an awful draft. My first 4 picks were Steven Jackson, Steven Ridley, RG3 & Randall Cobb. So I guess it’s a wonder I was able to cobble together any wins at all. Shows my underlying managerial potential. My best pick of the early rounds was Knowshon Moreno, who I quickly traded for MJD.”

It’s that kind of form that found other GMs speaking derisively of Kelkowski’s chances in the upcoming season. I wonder what the pair think of having their methods questioned and if they’ll change anything in response.  The Kelkowski of the 80s comes to the fore in Kelly.

“Kelkowski will do what Kelkowski wants to do.  We don’t kowtow to the suits in the league office and we don’t listen to the insults of internet weirdos.  If any of our fellow GMs want to make something of it, we’ll show them some old school street justice.  In terms of the responsibilities that come with the job of GM we both take it very seriously.  We even created a spreadsheet, which, I think you agree shows our strong commitment to the team.”

It’s clear which side of the partnership harbours the attitude when Kulkowski jumps in with his response, which is much more mild-mannered and even tempered than his partner’s. “The disrespect that’s been aimed towards us from some camps makes me laugh. I think other GM’s will have enough to worry about rather than wasting energy taking swipes at us. For me it’s a sign that they’re worried. Fear is driving such behaviour and to be honest it’s justified. Fear of the unknown.”

That said, when I ask about objectives for the season ahead, it appears Kelly has rubbed off on Kulkowski just a little bit. “There can only be one objective and that is to win it all every year. There’s no point in being involved otherwise. Kelkowski will have one aim and that will be to dominate the dynabowl year in year out. We will be the leagues phill Taylor if you like.”

But then Kelly takes things one step further. Some might say over the line, but not Kelkowski. “I want to trade rape at least one person, preferably David Slater.” It’s not the kind of thing you necessarily want to broadcast but, if the 80s taught us anything, it that that’s just not the Kelkowski way.

Given the pairing’s reputation, are we to expect any fireworks or trademark ‘maverick’ moves at the auction?

“You can expect actual fireworks, theme music, and possibly a surprise celebrity appearance,” promises Kelly, while Kulkowski goes one step further: “My main focus in the auction will be unsettling the other GM’s with my nominations. Too much focus is paid to the bidding process but the real victories are had when you force someone into a massive panic buy with a left field nomination or make them pass on an undervalued player because they’ve just wasted said dollars. The auction is a massive psychological battle on many levels, it will take a strong willed and highly manipulative GM to come out on top, and that’s exactly who Kelkowski is.”

Kelly pipes up again, anxious to stress that they have a fully rounded auction plan. “I think it’s well known that we are all about players with amusing and/or interesting names, as well as those that contain apostrophes or extra capital letters. We’re also looking at young players with a good future ahead of them. And Tony Romo.”

Now one thing that everyone knows about Kelkowski is their attitude to rules. So what do the pair make of the extensive rulebook laid out by the Commissioner?

“It’s clear that Kelkowski doesn’t care for rules, the suits in the league office, or authority of any kind.  We make our own rules (within the stringent rules set for us by the suits in the league office),” says Kelly, and Kulkowski tows the party line, “My approach to the rules is very much in keeping with the Kelkowski mantra. I will ignore them and do my own thing until someone tells me I’ve done something wrong. Then I will ask what the rules are and what I should do differently and just pretend I didn’t know. It’s an easy excuse given the rules are so complicated.”

So what does the season hold in store for us then? Kulkowski is eager to place any underperformance firmly away from his door, saying “I’m strongly of the opinion that fantasy success is 85% luck which means anyone can win. That’s part of the appeal for me. Even Ben [Archer] or Geoffrey [Manboob – apparently a person] could win it. Anyone. Except [David] Slater. He will never be allowed to win. Even when it looks like he is cruising to victory so higher powered intervention will take place to ensure he fails. The league could not cope with a victorious Slatz. However, this also means anyone can also finish last no matter how ‘good’ they or anyone else thinks they are. You are only ever a couple of injuries or lineup changes away from disaster.”

Kelly is equally adamant about David Slater. “I would love to get one over on Slater. He’s a terrible human being.”

And with that they hang up, and I am left trying to make sense of the gibberish and find somewhere to make money from it all. I have failed.