Tag: James Goodson

Replacement Level: Week 7

After my second resounding Manboob victory of the season, Geoffrey has seen fit to leave me the replacements. So let’s start by “thanking” him with a review of how he did do and could have done:

    Proj Actual FA Rank Best Best Points
QB Stanton 4.28 0 7= Mike Glennon, TB 18.56
RB Rodgers 5.15 0.9 18 Fozzy Whittaker, CAR 11.6
RB Ogbannaya 3.5 0 28= Roy Helu, WAS 6.6
RB Robinson 2.825 3.6 7
WR Johnson, S 2.9 5.3 15 Andre Holmes, OAK 24.1
WR Wright 3.9 3.8 18 Robert Woods, BUF 15.8
WR Ginn Jr 2.2 2.375 25 Brandon Lloyd, SFO 14
WR LaFell 4.6 21.7 2* Chris Hogan, BUF 13.2
TE Carlson 4.4 1.4 14 James Casey, PHI 8.6
TE Lance Kendricks, STL 8.2
PK Cantazaro 6.4 10.45 1* Mike Nugent, CIN 9.7
PN Ryan 0 5.675 10 Steve Weatherford, NYG 12.425
 
DE Ngata 2 1.25 25= Vinny Curry, PHI 15
DE Gholston 1 4.5 10 George Johnson, DET 13.75
DT Guion 0.5 3 13= Evander Hood, JAC 13
LB Robinson 2.5 5 20* Tahir Whitehead, DET 26.95
LB Sheard 0 1 54= Dan Skuta, SFO 23.5
LB Durant 1.5 4 26= Justin Tuggle, HOU 16.05
LB Graham 1 19 3* Alex Okafor, ARI 16
S Ishmael 4 3 14= Rashad Johnson, ARI 38.8
S Jefferson 5.65 1 26= Dontae Johnson, SFO 20
CB Cox 0 6.25 12* Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 22.65
CB Arrington 1.5 1.25 43* Buster Skrine, CLE 19.5
 
  59.805 104.45 367.985
 

 

 

Much like Bill Belichick Mangboob is a coach / GM, and much like Bill he spends a lot of time being grumpy in hoodies. This is not where the similarity ends, as both Bill and Manboob show a knack for coaching the shit out of his players, getting far more than the traditional 110% out of his players with an impressive 175% improvement. Unfortunately, also like Bill, Manboob is a terrible GM specialising in identifying players who have an awful lot of shit to be coached out, and the 104 he scored, while impressive against the predictions, was a long way short of the near 370 possible.

Overall Manboob finds himself coaching the Replacements to their second lowest score, and didn’t manage to beat a single proper team, leaving Pete’s week one effort still the best the Replacements have managed, and the only time the replacements have beaten a DynaBowl franchise.

    Proj Actual CtSOoT* Score Teams beaten
Week 1 Pete Conaghan 89.385 150.74 1.69 3
Week 2

Move along nothing to see here

Week 3 Ben Hendy 89.795 126.64 1.41 0
Week 4 James Goodson 52.4 97 1.85 0
Week 5 Iran Kulkowski 79.2 144.535 1.82 0
Week 6 Geoffrey Manboob 59.805 104.45 1.75 0
Week 7 David Slater 72.025

Anyway, enough trashing Manboob (power-ranked 10th out of 10 right now), it’s time to introduce Week 7’s replacements.*Coaching the Shit Out of Them

Ladies and gentlemen (well, just gentlemen) please could we have a tepid and disinterested round of applause for your offence!

Starting Quarterback – Charlie Whitehurst (Ten): Ranked 4th – Projected 9 points

This really comes down to a choice between 4 potential starters – Orton, Fitzpatrick, Genome Smith and Whitehurst.

Half man, half beard... ALL BEARD
Half man, half beard… ALL BEARD

Fitz may look like he’s eating a squirrel through his helmet grill, but he’s likely to be a liability against a Pittsburgh defence who have held opposing QBs to very low scores (joint 4th best in fantasy against QBs), and sadly doesn’t score any points for his squirrel-munching antics.

Orton is up against an even more effective Minnesota defence – 4th best in fantasy against QBs despite facing Matts Ryan and Stafford, Tom Fucking Brady, Adam Rodgers and Brees in 5 of their 6 weeks.

Genome, is facing the Patriots – better than both Pittsburgh and Minnesota in terms of destroying a QB’s fantasy totals – and he is a truly fucking terrible QB.

Seen here in court, yesterday
Seen here in court, yesterday

This leaves Whitehurst, who is playing Washington’s incredibly forgiving defence, a defence so bad it made King Cunt Nick Foles looks good. Also Charlie has magnificent hair. The only real risk is that Jake Locker is fit enough to play Sunday, but even if he is, it’s likely Whitehurst gets 2 quarters and he could still outscore the others in that time.

Starting Running Backs –

Roy Helu (Was): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.6pts

Jonathan Stewart (Car): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5.5pts

To say the running back options are thin would be an understatement. They’re anorexic, a graveyard of terrible selections.

Helu, who sees regular change of pace work in the Washington backfield is a steady option, and with a TD could put up a decent score.

The chaos in Carolina’s backfield means that the fit again Stewart (last week’s running back of the week in Carolina, Fozzy Whittaker, is questionable as is the week before’s Darrin Reaves) is likely to start and see the majority of carries when Cam doesn’t decide to do it all himself.

Starting Wide Receivers –

Andre Holmes (Oak): Ranked 3rd – Projected 5.4pts

Brandon Lloyd (SF): Ranked 27th – Projected 2.2pts

Jerricho Cotchery (Car): Ranked 4th – Projected 5.3pts

Robert Woods (Buf): Ranked 6th – Projected 4.525pts

Holmes is a no-brainer, and I’d be surprised if he were available for next week’s Replacement Level as he’s put up 13.4 and 24.1 points in the two games either side of the Raiders bye week with Carr starting to find his feet. Oakland has a good matchup this week, with Arizona having the most generous passing defence involved in this weekend’s games (31st in points to wide-receivers).

Lloyd has shown flashes of his old self, and knows Denver well, having been the NFL’s leading receiver in his time as a Bronco. A deep threat might prove necessary against a Denver defence which has been one of the best against opposing receivers.

Cotchery has been consistently average for Carolina so far, but with Benjamin suffering a mild concussion should see a greater workload this weekend. The Packers pass defence has been pretty good; holding opposing wideouts to less than the fantasy average, however this is as much a product of playing some average offences as anything else, and Miami lit them up for 156 receiving yards and 2 tds last week. Carolina is far from a dominant passing defence, but Green Bay has regularly demonstrated their difficulties handling a talented mobile QB and Cotchery could be the beneficiary.

Woods has emerged as a decent target for Orton and has seen a lot more looks in the passing game in recent weeks, unfortunately for the Bills, they’ve played a run of excellent defences over that period and that continues this week against the Vikes. 10 to 12 targets is a realistic number for Woods, and if he catches 7, he could find himself on the end of an 80 yard day, which would be good enough for my 4th choice.

Starting Tight Ends –

Jermaine Gresham (Cin): Ranked 2nd – Projected 4.5pts

Ben Watson (NOS): Ranked 13th – Projected 1.9pts

Ah, Jermaine Gresham… Sabotaging fantasy teams with his promise and and lack of production for about 5 years now. With the Bengals struggling for bodies who can catch passes Gresham had his best week of the year – in fact a better week than the whole year put together. Another 60+ yard outing beckons against Indy who’ve been generous to TEs so far this year.

With Jimmy Graham out, Watson is the usual number 2 tight end and should see a nice little uptick in his production. As a Jimmy Graham owner, I can testify first hand to how Drew Brees appears to have forgotten his Tight End exists so far this year, but at a thin position Watson has upside. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Kicker –

Caleb Sturgis (Mia): Ranked joint 4th – Projected 6.4pts

A veritable treasure trove of riches at Kicker compared with the other offensive positions. Gould would be a fine choice, but Sturgis should get lots of opportunities to kick against a fairly poor Chicago defence, and has only missed once this year – from 48 yards.

Starting Punter –

Steve Weatherford (NYG): Ranked N/A – Projected 0pts

Not projecting points for punters is a major oversight by MFL. Weatherford is the second best punter so far amongst free agents, and he was the best in the league last year. His leg may be sore after last weekend, but he, unlike the rest of the Giants’ offence, could at least reflect on a job well done against Philly.

 

On to the defence… As a general rule, projected scores for defensive players are a joke. We’re dealing with big play scoring, and the league doesn’t seem to project big play scores, as such the projections are essentially useless as a guide here.

Starting Defensive Ends –

Haloti Ngata (Oak): Ranked 1st – Projected 2pts

George Johnson (Det): Ranked joint 38th – Projected 0pts

Ngata is a steady presence, with the potential for a big game, and his ability to make plays on passing downs matches up well against their pass happy offence.

Johnson is in good form, with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss in his last two games. Dallas abused New Orleans’ offense, and Detroit bring a much better defensive unit to the game. Johnson can ride his hot-streak to make Drew Brees life slightly more miserable. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Defensive Tackle –

Sammy Lee Hill (Ten): Ranked joint 25th – Projected 0pts

Tennessee have a good defence, tough, but not that special – that’s why their players litter the DynaBowl free agency pool. They also have the Washington Redskins in town, so expect to see a lot of them on my team this week.

Starting Linebackers –

Kamerion Wimbley (Ten): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Pernell McPhee (Bal): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

Eric Walden (Ind): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Jabaal Sheard (Cle): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

These are mostly match-up based. Tennessee and Washington, Baltimore and Atlanta (who are terrible on the road) and Cleveland and Jacksonville should provide plenty of opportunities for these guys to make plays. Indy play the Bengals, who’ve shown one of the better lines in the early stages of the season, but this is a trend thing. The Bengals line seems to be getting worse, and the Indy defence seems to be finding its feet. Walden has three sacks on the year and five tackles for a loss, I like him to have a good game.

Starting Safeties –

Michael Griffin (Ten): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5pts

Roman Harper (Car): Ranked 9th – Projected 3pts

Griffin is actually projected worse than his Tennessee safety colleague (15 points!), but has consistently out-performed him this year so far. Backing Kirk Cousins to throw stupid interceptions is basically playing with house money.

I was tempted to double down on Tennessee, but while Harper might be old, but he’s still pretty good in the passing game. The scoring we use doesn’t worry about players getting lit up, or defences who can’t stop their opponents – Green Bay figure to see a fair amount of the ball against Carolina, and Rodgers will make plays all day long, meaning at worst Harper should provide a reasonable return in tackles, defended passes and the like, with the potential for a big play along the way.

Starting Cornerbacks –

Adam Jones (Cin): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.2pts

Blidi Wreh-Wilson (Ten): Ranked joint 2nd – Projected 4pts

Jones plays in a good Cincy secondary who should get the chance to make plays against pass-happy Andy Luck, who rarely lets a game pass without one interception at least. Jones was also used as a returner last week, and that little point bump can only help.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson possesses an excellent name. He had a huge game against the Jags, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll repeat that, Tennessee are playing the Redskins, and it could be jackpot time for anyone in that secondary. I’m also loathe to pick two players from the same club at corner or safety, else Newman would have been a good play here.

And so, without further ado, your full week 7 replacements (and the projected best replacements teams)

    Proj Rank among FA Best Best Points
QB Charlie Whitehurst, TEN 9 4 Kyle Orton, BUF 12.06
RB Roy Helu, WAS 5.6 1 Roy Helu, WAS 5.6
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5 2 Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5
WR Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4 3 Andrew Hawkins, CLE 6.2
WR Brandon Lloyd, SFO 2.2 27 Jarius Wright, MIN 6.1
WR Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3 4 Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4
WR Robert Woods, BUF 4.525 6 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5 2 Lance Kendricks, STL 9
TE Ben Watson, NOS 1.9 13 Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5
PK Caleb Sturgis, MIA 6.4 4= Robbie Gould, CHI 7.4
PN Steve Weatherford, NYG 0 N/A N/A 0
 
DE Haloti Ngata, BAL 2 1 Haloti Ngata, BAL 2
DE George Johson, DET 0 38= Osi Umenyiora, ATL 1
DT Ian Williams, SFO 0.5 7= Damon Harrison, NYJ 1
DT Sammie Lee Hill, TEN 0 25= Vince Wilfork, NEP 1
LB Kamerion Wimbley, TEN 1 31= Jacquian Williams, NYG 3
LB Pernell McPhee, BAL 0 63= Jon Beason, NYG 2.5
LB Eric Walden, IND 1 31= Philip Wheeler, MIA 2.5
LB Jabaal Sheard, CLE 0 63= Tahir Whitehead, DET 2.5
S Michael Griffin, TEN 5 2 George Wilson, TEN 15
S Roman Harper, CAR 3 9 Michael Griffin, TEN 5
CB Adam Jones, CIN 5.2 1 Adam Jones, CIN 5.2
CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 4 2= Terence Newman, CIN 4
 
  72.025 111.76

 

I’d nominate manboob, for nominating me, but that seems like a vicious circle, and he’s already had his chance and blown it. So for next week I’d like to nominate manager of the Firebeards, Neil to see if he can’t beat his actual team’s score for the week.

Replacement Level: Week 5

by Ian Kulkowski

This should be interesting.  I barely know who half of my own players are let alone the randomly named players who remain in our barren wasteland of a waiver wire.  But as I am somehow 7-1 through the first 4 week’s of both bowls I guess that makes me as qualified as anyone pick some needles from the haystack.

Week 4 Review

Let’s start by reviewing Goody’s performance from last week.

RLW5 - W4 recap

A total of 97 is respectable given the shortage of options due to a heavy bye week.  This is 23 short of the lowest Dynabowl score so not quite competitive.  Looking at the top scorers that were available on the wire last week there was a whopping 351 points!  This shows there is potential out there.  Though the majority of the big scores come from the D where in our league anyone can have a big week at any time.

Goody managed to select 1 of the top scorers in Devin Hester (Andre Holmes would also have been one if we were going with 4 WR’s).

Interestingly when looking at the performance of Goody’s picks from last week it is evident that Max has read the article then gone and picked up most of the players Goody selected.  A devious strategy Indeed!

Let’s see if he goes for the same this week with my stellar picks (more fool him if he does!)

Week 5 Replacements

I’ll start by looking at the D as if I do it the other way around I will be totally bored by the time I get to the end.  We’ll begin with what is according to Dynasty of Sadness GM Geoffrey Manboob the most important position in our IDP league – Safety.

The top scorers so far are Iloka, Moore, Lewis, Adams & Abdullah whilst the top projected scorers this week are Jefferson, Goldson, Demps, Adams & Moore.  So that’s Rahim Moore & Mike Adams in.  The matchups don’t look too bad vs the Cards and Ravens (as long as Steve Smith Senior doesn’t eat him).

All going smoothly so far, let’s move on to corner.  By the same logic Kareem Jackson & Cortez Allen are towards the top of the actual / projected scores table so they’re in.  Allen has perfect matchup vs the Jags so I’m expecting at least 1 pick 6.

Linebackers next.  Everyone is projected the same points at linebacker so I may have to change my tactic here.  I’ll go for Jon Bostic for no other reason than he’s playing the Jags, David Hawthorne (for Jags read Buccs),  And Keenan Robinson (who will have to make a million tackles against the Seahawks).

This is getting difficult now.  And it started so well.  A few guesses coming up (As if they’re not all guesses so far!).  At DE we’ll take Cedric Thornton & Robert Ayers.  DT will be Jonathan Hankins and I don’t fancy any more Defensive Lineman so will go for another Linebacker.  Erm… Demario Davis will do.

That’s the D done.   Projected points 26.5.  Now to the Offence.

At Punter Coulton Schmidt looks like a safe pick.  In fact I might even pick him up.  Max, don’t you dare!  I’ll take Randy Bullock at Kicker.  Just because that sentence had to be written.

There are NO Tight Ends available.  Clay Harbour did okay last week at the chargers so I’ll give him a go vs the Steelers.  Ugh

At WR I’ll take the Browns top target Miles Austin.  He was on Kelkowski’s original roster but didn’t make J’ays exacting standards [read “his name wasn’t crazy, let alone crazy enough for J’ay” – ed] but I’ll give him a shot here.  Sanu has been consistent so far so gets a look.  Jarious Wright seems to have some chemistry with Teddy Bridgeater (let’s hope he plays as I imagine the same can’t be said for Cassel).  Flex play will be Jerricho Cotchery.

Roy Helu has featured more in the receiving game in recent weeks so can try again at RB.  And I’ll see if Antone Smith can repeat his performances of recent weeks.

My Gunslinger will be Ryan Fitzpatrick as I simply can’t take my eyes of that facial hair.

Project points for the Offence is 52.7 giving me a total projection of 79.2.  If there’s one thing I’ve learned so far it’s that projections are always wrong.  So there we go.  I hope you’ve paid attention and learned a thing or two about how to pick a team.

Oh, and I’ve just realised I’m 1 short on offence, will have to be another TE I think.  Jermaine Gresham Maybe.

To recap here’s what we ended up with:

 

QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick

RB – Roy Helu, Antone Smith

WR – Miles Austin, Mohamed Sanu, Jarious Wright, Jerricho Cotchery

TE – Clay Harbour, Jermaine Gresham

PK – Randy Bullock

PN – Coulton Schmidt

 

DT – Jonathan Hankins

DE – Cedric Thornton, Robert Ayers

LB – Jon Bostic, David Hawthorne, Keenan Robinson, Demario Davis

CB – Kareem Jackson, Cortez Allen

S – Rahim Moore, Mike Adams

 

 

Replacement Level: Week 4

Goody here, taking up the baton of manager of the replacement levels for week 4. We’ll cut straight to it, by getting the Roger Goodell level of excuses in early. Week 4 is bye week, therefore a little more difficult than week 3 as a big chunk of the available players are not playing, and a lot harder than week 1, as let’s face it, lots of decent available talent was still out there sacking Ryan Tannehill.

So, was the Dynabowl Commissioner’s week as good as the NFL one’s?

QB Geno Smith – projected points – (actual points) 11.62 (14.64)
RB Bilal Powell – 4.5 – Roy Helu – 3.6 – Brandon Bolden – 1.8 (2.525 ; 11.6; 0.4: Total 14.525)
WR Steve Smith Snr – 8.075 – Miles Austin – 5.2 – Ted Ginn Jnr – 4.25 – Devin Hester – 3.15 (10.1; 11.1; 2: Total 23.2)
TE Larry Donnell – 5.7 (2.2)
PK Matt Bryant – 7.4 (8)
PN Steve Weatherford – 0 (5.975)

DT Vince Wilfork – 0.5 (12.1)
DE Robert Ayers – 6.0 – Manny Lawson – 1.5 (1.5; 7.5: Total 9)
LB Erik Walden – 6.0 – Dant’a Hightower – 1.5 – Philip Wheeler – 2.5 – Thomas Davis – 2.0 (8.75; 4.5; 5; 3: Total 21.25)
CB Johnathan Joseph – 4.5 – Kareem Jackson – 4.0 (5.5; 7: Total 12.5)
S Da’Norris Searcy – 3.5 – Dashon Goldson – 2.5 (0.5; 2.75: Total 3.25)

Total Projected Points: 89.795
Total Actual Points: 126.64

So a very respectable score put up there but sadly still 20 points off the lowest score. Even so, the prediction of Hester and his record breaking return paid dividends, as did the giant Vince Wilfork, the most unlikely name on any interception.

So with my team I’ve gone for people that impress me. Or if that’s not the case. The people who I recognise in a long list of people I know very little about.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – 9.5
RBs Darrel Young; Jonathan Grimes; Daniel Thomas – 0.95
WRs Devin Hester; Andre Holmes; Jarrett Boykin; – 3.575, 2.75, 3.725
TE Owen Daniels, Derek Carrier – 2.1, 0.9
PK Robbie Gould – 7.4
PN Brad Nortman

DT Corey Peters, Steve McLendon – 0.5, 0.5
DE Mario Addison, Kendall Reyes – 0.5, 0.5
LB Jelani Jenkins, Rolando McClain, Perry Riley – 2.5, 1.5, 2
CB Greg Toler, Jonathan Joseph – 3.5, 4
SS LaRon Landry, Roman Harper – 2.5, 3.5

I’ve had to go for Fitzpatrick as I just can’t face Geno deciding to run it in from 40 yards with 3 receivers wide open. I’ve gone for Red Zone favourite Young and hope that Blue not taking it by the neck in week 2 would open it up for some touches by Grimes. Thomas ruined my faith in Lamar Miller last year, so hope he pays me back this time. I’ve had to go for just 3 receivers (stopping myself taking in 2 Raiders receivers ) and hope Streater’s injury results in Derek Carr going nuts and breaking out – but targetting Andre Holmes and now one else. This has meant 2 TEs with Pitta’s replacement Daniels, paired with Vernon Davis’ replacement of Carrier.

My faith in defence is provided Corey Peters and McLendon whose matchup versus the Jags should gaurentee around 9.5 sacks. This meant I’ve only gone for 3 linebackers as most of the good ones are taken, and I am hoping McClain can recover to continue his comeback versus the Saints and wipe the smug grin off Bree’s face. I’m very happy with my DBs and hoping for at least 25 tackles and an interception.

Total prediction of a mighty 51.4

But I expect to hit between 196 and 250.

The DynaBowl Auction

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. It was bonkers. It was insane. It was so crazy it might just work. It was a once in a lifetime experience, in as much as it was brilliant and, I think, that’s about the one time in my life I want to do it. It was, of course, The DynaBowl auction day in Sheffield.

I don’t want to be negative about it – I certainly don’t feel negative about it – but looking back on the day, there were so many things that went wrong, be they with my strategy and planning, or with the way the day itself was run, but they are all part of what is, weirdly (and perhaps shamefully) one of the best days of my life. I both love and hate myself a little bit more for being able to say that.

So, a brief bit of scene setting for those not in the know. We are a UK-based fantasy football (NFL) league. We have played a redraft league for a few years and had decided to step things up to a Dynasty League (Dynasty League basically means you own your players as long as you like and try to build through the draft so you can win year after year). We threw the kitchen sink at this league though. There’s an auction to start things off. There’s full IDP (individual defensive players). There’s a starting line-up of 22 players and rosters totalling 50. There’s a salary cap, and contracts with extension costs, and the ability to structure guaranteed money in different years.

Basically, we figured if we were going to do this, we were going to do everything we could possibly want to do the first time we tried, and it was going to include every feature we could think of. Nearly.

Fantasy Leagues tend to get split into two types – those played with (relative) strangers across the internet and those played amongst a group of friends, and we are definitely part of that latter group. However, we are also part of the former. We are all split out across the country in a variety of locations and rarely get to see each other. Indeed, some of us had never met others before, bizarrely, despite all being good friends. Go figure. We do spend a fair chunk of time chatting with each other via online messaging services, especially during big sporting events. Especially during the NFL season.

Our redraft league is run through the internet and the draft that takes place is internet based. If we were going to set up a Dynasty League though we wanted to do it in style, all meeting up to launch the fucker together. And that is what the Auction Day on July 12th was all about.

The plan – we had a room in a pub booked all day. 10 men would enter, 10 men would leave. Broken shells of men, but 10 of them all leaving. Those 10 men would have bought the fictional rights to 500 players for the next several years. What could possibly go wrong?

As it turns out, two very key things could go wrong. One of us could be stuck in Turkey, and we could all drastically under-estimate the amount of time it would take to buy 500 players. Thank God we weren’t dealing with agents too.

I had foreseen some problems. Availability was always going to be an issue. That’s why I had the day picked out from January. I surveyed the league. I made sure it was good for everyone. And immediately after I picked it out I was told it wouldn’t work for one league member. So we moved it. Then one of our contingent got a job in Belgium, but he would be able to make it back over. Except that then his Belgian employers sent him to Turkey and he wouldn’t be back in Belgium until the morning of the auction. Fine – we’ll Skype him in. Except then there were plane problems and he couldn’t leave Turkey until later… And argh… I started to get that feeling that everything was crumbling around my ears.

So before I get into how the day went, the mistakes, both real and perceived, mine and others and the group as a whole, before all of that, let’s expand a little on the set-up.

Fantasy Football (NFL) is a big thing in America. I mean, in the UK, Fantasy Football (soccer) is quite big – newspapers run their leagues, Sky runs a league. There are some big prizes. But consider this – in America, during games on the scoreboards in the stadium, messages flash up to update the crowd on how many points players around the league have scored. Fantasy Football (NFL) isn’t a bit of fun around the side, it has been woven into the very fabric of the sport.

Imagine if you were reading an article in the paper about a new signing made by Chelsea in the Premier League and the end of the article had a couple of paragraphs about what the signing means for your fantasy league. That happens in America. That’s a real thing. Fantasy Football is central to the sport.

This is reflected in web options. To run your league, you can set up a free league through Yahoo or ESPN or CBS or the NFL itself, but if you’re serious you pay a website to have a fully customisable set-up, so you can change nigh on every single detail. So what do you think we’ve done?

Are we taking our hobby seriously? You bet we are. Too seriously? No such thing. OK, there is, and I am. I’m writing this aren’t I? But I am by no means the worst. Google fantasy football. Google dynasty leagues. You will disappear down a rabbit hole. People pay thousands of dollars each year to enter leagues online against strangers, with winner takes all, or most, of the prize fund. People actively seek out failing and abandoned teams (known as Orphans) for the challenge of turning them into champions.

So why such devotion, and why haven’t things gone this far with fantasy football (soccer)? I think the key is in 3 very specific things. Most North American sports can be broken down into stats very easily, and football (NFL) more than most. The number of yards running, receiving or throwing is a very simple thing to calculate, with bonus points for touchdowns. Compare that to goals and assists – the bulk of fantasy football (soccer) scoring – and you can begin to see there are more options. A typical football (soccer) match sees 3 goals – that’s very few scoring events. In the NFL each team will generate a total of 300-400 yards offence on average, with different players getting credit and earning points for those. Suddenly there’s a lot more ways to score points, and a lot more points to be scored. A canny manager has more control in fantasy football (NFL) than fantasy football (soccer).

The second reason is that in football (soccer) teams have (relatively) large squads but can only let 14 guys on the field per match. That means that your player could get rested for the big European match midweek, and you won’t know until the game kicks off. You don’t have enough information to manage your team. In the NFL, players are active for games, or inactive. The roster has 53 men in total and all could play some part, and you’ll generally know in advance if your guys will or won’t. Therefore, management is, again, more nuanced.

Finally, most fantasy football (NFL) leagues – except the one run by Sky in the UK, which follows the fantasy football (soccer) model – are set up to be individual leagues where teams compete against each other each week, building to playoffs and a superbowl, and – crucially – each player can only be owned by one team in the league. In fantasy football (soccer), everyone can field Van Persie if they want. The level of competitiveness isn’t there in fantasy football (soccer).

So that’s why it’s so great, why it’s so appealing (though having a love of NFL helps, too, of course). Now back to the DynaBowl. I set up the auction. I then had to craft some rules.

The rules. I didn’t know what I was doing. I had some ideas, but would they work. I searched the interwebs. I signed up at websites. I posted on forums. I read archives. And I wrote and I honed. My final rules, I have just found out, clock in at a scary over 7,400 words. Seriously. That’s nearly as long as the dissertation that got me my degree. And they are a fucking work of art.

I thought of everything I could. I thought of all the ways I’d try to gain an advantage and then wrote rules so I couldn’t. I made them as simple to read as possible, but they are still quite complex. We had robust conversations. Well, the people who read them did. Not everyone has yet. Still. They trust that the rules will be there when they need them. No one has found my secret loophole.

The next thing was research. I knew some players. I knew the main players. The redraft league had given me that. I didn’t know most of the defensive players. I didn’t know the depth players. I didn’t know the secret players who might have a break-out season. I didn’t know how consistent or otherwise players tended to be, with regard to point scoring. I didn’t know how much of an impact a trade or free agency signing might have. How would he fit in with the new coach’s offensive line schemes? That kind of thing. So I read lots and lots more. And I read the questions everyone else posed. And I absorbed and I came up with values I thought players would have and I came up with a strategy for who I wanted on my roster.

In the meantime, as Commissioner of the league, I had another duty. An important duty. Every league member was paying me £20 for the first year and £10 each year thereafter to run the league, pay for the site and pay for the prizes. This is not for profit. Anything that didn’t go on the site was going on the prizes, and I needed a trophy. I looked at websites, I visited trophy shops. It turned out they had all closed. I found one run out of an old man’s garage and paid him a visit. He gave me some catalogues. I was *this* close to buying a cup. It was fancy, but it came out of a magazine. It was nice, but it wasn’t special. This league needed special.

A friend of mine makes art and models. Things like dragons and fawns and night elves. They are really, really good. We were chatting about stuff in general and I mentioned the league and the trophy search and I suddenly realised – maybe, if paid enough, she could create the ideal trophy.

Amongst my friends, the NFL championship is referred to as the Owl. Not just any Owl, the Superb Owl. I commissioned my friend to produce a Superb Owl for me. And it is fucking superb. See for yourself:

 

The Owl on display in the DynaBowl League Trophy Room
The Owl on display in the DynaBowl League Trophy Room

See… superb. I teased the league in the build-up to the auction, but I didn’t let them know what I had done. It was to be a surprise.

Anyway, back to the best of times, the worst of times. We were meeting in Sheffield. I don’t live in Sheffield. I live a long way from Sheffield. I allowed an hour longer for my journey than was suggested. It was a beautiful day and everyone else was on the road. I used up all of my hour and arrived at the pub at about 5 minutes past midday. 5 minutes late. Not a good precedent. Fortunately we were waiting for others to arrive too. I didn’t keep too many people waiting.

We got into the pub, relaxed with a drink before getting started, and then went to our ‘function’ room to set up. It was a decent room. A good size for all of us. Unfortunately we all had at least one laptop and/or iPad, and we were using a projector. And, as discussed, it was a lovely day. That room got hot, quick. We were promised a fan. It never arrived. It would have just moved hot air around anyway. It wasn’t a huge loss.

So once we set up I unveiled the Owl to gasps of delight, and flashes of cameras from the local press.

My one chance to proudly hold up the Owl
My one chance to proudly hold up the Owl

And then we got down to business. I wanted a bit of pageantry. We drew marbles in an FA Cup style to determine who called the next player for auction (we stuck with the same order throughout, we didn’t do this every single time). The first person called was Neil. Neil had no idea who he wanted to nominate. It was an inauspicious start.

Once Neil had nominated the bidding got under way and, with the help of a broken chair leg for a gavel, I announced the sale closed. The player, Cam Newton, quarterback for the Caroline Panthers and general all-round stud player. He was bought by Mike for $50. Mike subsequently revealed that he had not planned to spend $50 on a quarterback or to bid on Cam Newton. This is what the pressure of a live auction can do to a man. By the end, I think we had all experienced this to one extreme or another.

This process went on. Most people had no idea who they wanted to nominate each time it came round to them. I was probably the worst for it. I was juggling running the auction, entering all the sales into a database, keeping people up to date with how much they had spent AND trying to buy players for my own team. There was too much happening. It is now 3 weeks later and I still haven’t fully recovered my brain function. I made a lot of mistakes. But before we get to those, let’s stop a moment to watch a lengthy video of the first round of purchases being made.

As you can see, I am well placed to take up a professional auctioneering job, should commissioning fall through.

I am going to go into detail (“What?!? This isn’t detail yet???” – you) around my strategy and how I messed up and what I felt about the way in which things went from a buying players perspective, but first I wanted to talk more generally about what I learned from doing this whole thing.

PRACTICAL LESSONS

1) If you’re thinking about doing something like this – a live auction with a bunch of friends – always err on the side of caution with regards to time. We had estimated that we’d start of at 30-40 players per hour – that’s one player sold every 90-120 seconds – and would get up to somewhere between one player every 30-60 seconds.

We thought big names would go first, with lots of bidding, hence the longer time-frames, and then we’d get down to a lot of $1-3 players – barely any bidding. This wasn’t the case. As I mentioned before, most of the time people didn’t know who they were nominating next. There were lots of players that got a “Who?” reaction around the table which meant, before bidding could commence everyone had to look them up – their name, team, position, past performance – and then make a snap decision to bid or not. It all added up.

For 500 players to be sold off, we’d probably need to have started at 9am and gone for 12+ hours. As it was we went from 1pm until about 7:30pm as the last train from Sheffield for some team managers left at around 8pm.

I never thought we would be done by 8pm, but even if we’d stayed until 11pm, closing time, we wouldn’t have made it to 500 players.

Let's get down to bizniz
Let’s get down to bizniz

2) Have a contingency. If there’s a risk that you might not be able to get through the whole thing in one day, have a plan for what you do next. We had to make one up pretty much on the spot. Those who could stay on talked in the bar about how to sort it and then I had to figure out the finer details.

To explain what we did, we took the positions one by one (or in a couple of cases, grouped them together). People submitted a list in preference order along with their maximum bid and some vague instructions (like “If you get X, don’t bid on Y”). I then collated all of that information and worked out who got which player. Teams went into a ‘first-preference’ order to break ties, dropping the team who won the player to last on the list.

It was a complex process and more gut than scientific to be honest. The complications over person A put player X 5th on his list and bid $10 while person B put them 1st with a bid of $8 (and that’s very much a simple example) meant I had to bring my own interpretation to it.

I like to think that during my time in leagues with the other GMs means that I am trusted as being fair and rational and impartial in these situations and that’s why it worked. I wasn’t questioned once about where the players ended up and for how much, though the big difference in player evaluations made that easier – there weren’t many instances of teams ending up with their 10th choice on their list.

Still, I would recommend having some kind of plan set up and agreed in advance.

Phil's about to buy someone - that's what I had just decided
Phil’s about to buy someone – that’s what I had just decided

3) Have some kind of contingency for if someone can’t attend. Who knows what can happen, especially when you set your auction date so far in advance. We were caught out by one member’s job situation taking him to the other side of the continent and we mad as good a stab at covering for him as possible.

I bought him a few players – none that I was targeting myself of course – when the info he had managed to send through at short notice seemed a bit shallow. He couldn’t have known that the values for the players he had given me would go above his maximum, and there was no ability to adjust on the fly so I took some decisions.

This wouldn’t work with a different group of people, which is why a more robust plan should be in place before it goes ahead, just in case.

In the end, he’s ended up with, arguably, a decent but not great. At least he’ll be competitive and, as Commissioner, it’s in my interest to make sure the league as a whole and all teams individually remain competitive.

The look of a man who wants to show the Racists how to properly build a roster
The look of a man who wants to show the Racists how to properly build a roster

4) Try to find somewhere with air conditioning.

5) Get someone to be auctioneer. Someone who is not buying a team. I managed to pull together a pretty decent team, but I made a fair few mistakes along the way and didn’t follow my plan. Not having to run the auction itself would have allowed me to pay more attention to the bids I was making and how much I was spending.

On a related note, if you can rope 2 people in (and I get that getting someone to be auctioneer could be hard enough), then having someone separate to enter all the sale details as you go would be ideal.

James plots his next move
James plots his next move

AUCTION LESSONS

1) Defensive players. No one knew how to value them. The big names went for big bucks, and that’s fair. Robert Quinn and JJ Watt are behemoths and will score more than anyone else on defense, but all my researched showed that the next tier below tended to be a) very similar in performance and b) relatively inconsistent. This means that paying for the 7th best linebacker last season is basically the same as paying for the 25th best linebacker last season.

Why, then, did I make Ryan Shazier my most expensive defensive player, at $16? He’s a rookie linebacker. He may be terrible – he’s never played one professional snap – and yet I made him the joint 8th most expensive linebacker.

Just by way of comparison, I got Kyle WIlliams, the best performing defensive tackle (DT) in 2013 (by 24 points) for $6. Each team only needs to field 1 DT, but can field 2. If we assume that every team fields 1 and there’s even skill distribution (and there isn’t, as I have 3 of the top 10 from 2013), Williams scored 70 points more than the fifth best DT in 2013, and 89.5 more than the 10th.

It’s no guarantee of future performance of course, but that’s potentially a substantial point advantage, especially when you consider the most expensive DT went for $26.

We won’t see just how good that purchase was, or how inconsistent the scoring turns out to be for defensive players until the season takes place, but I think it’s clear this is the area we knew the least about and were least prepared for. Those contracts will even out over time as they need to be renewed or players hit free agency, but for now they are all over the place.

Everyone is focused on what matters most to them. To Ian, that's the camera.
Everyone is focused on what matters most to them. To Ian, that’s the camera.

2) Quarterbacks. In any given week there are up to 32 players starting as QB across the league. This league requires exactly 10 to start each week. There are some excellent QBs out there who can score a lot of points, however, given the requirement to start 3 or 4 WRs and 2 or 3 RBs which means that those pools of major talent would be in high demand, I had decided my strategy was to pay low fo QBs and spend on performers in those positions.

I was right, as well. I could have picked up Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo – three players with several top 10 fantasy seasons behind them – for a combined $25.

Unfortunately, I spent $64 on my three QBs – one of whom is Ryan – but the other two are overpriced gambles, RG3 and Johnny Manziel. RG3 could be a top 3 player – he was 5th in his rookie season and only 27 points behind Drew Brees in 1st – but his injury record and inconsistent play in his second season show the direction this gamble could take.

I’m not unhappy to have RG3. I actually think his upside is more likely and he’ll be a great player to watch this season, but I’d rather have spent less and invested the extra money in WRs or RBs.

Related to this, Aaron Rodgers, arguably the best QB in the league and with many seasons ahead of him, was the highest valued player at the auction, sold for $77. Given the prices for other players, this to me was an overspend. Despite being a Packers fan, I had ruled out going for Rodgers before the auction because I thought he’d be too expensive and I think I was proved right.

Ultimately this boils down to how many points can, say, $40 buy you? (Matt Stafford scored 1.5 points per game fewer than Aaron Rodgers in 2013, 4 fewer in 2012, and cost $44 less at auction). Could the investment of $20 in two RBs or WRs net you a gain of more than 4 points per game over the players actually bought? I think that’s entirely possible. If I had spent $40 less on my QBs, as I intended, I would have invested in a couple of other bigger players.

But hey, it’ll all come out in the wash, and maybe the Tamworth Two, who paid that $77 for Rodgers, will be proven right with a trip to the Owl.

Geoff doesn't think much of David's purchase, while James counts his pennies for the Rodgers purchase.
Geoff doesn’t think much of David’s purchase, while James counts his pennies for the Rodgers purchase.

3) Rookies. This was the foundation of my plan. I had read theories around structuring a dynasty roster which said it was a better strategy to go for longer term, don’t look to go for year one. Why? Because a team that is built to win from year 1 rarely has the depth to win for much longer afterwards and so requires immediate work to rebuild. By investing in youth (younger studs too, not just rookies), you hopefully prime your team to be stacked for years to come. This strategy may have a sneaky added advantage of giving you a bad finish in season 1 and so netting you a high draft pick in the first rookie draft too.

I went after this big time, with a combination of rookies who had high upside (Jordan Matthews at Philadelphia, for example) and those I thought were assured to be at the least very solid for years to come (Brandin Cooks, New Orleans). I also threw the dice in a couple of areas. At Tight End (TE) I have taken 4 young guys who may or may not come to something. If one of them hits to any degree I should be in a good position.

Of course, there are no guarantees any of these guys hit, and that’s why I also made sure to grab some guys who were proven to some degree, but had years ahead of them. AJ Green of the Bengals was my main purchase, the second most expensive player at auction at $71, and alongside him I picked up some second and third year guys who can hopefully break out this year. At least I know they can already perform to a reasonable standard in the league.

Finally, I grabbed a couple of veteran WRs cheap in the post-auction portion of proceedings. Anquan Boldin and James Jones should provide something for at least a year. They may not set the world on fire, but they provide options.

The same kind of thing with RBs, except here I tried to pair guys up. I only succeeded with 49ers veteran and rookie combo of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, but I still feel I have a good mix of experience, youth and rookies, along with a couple of players who could surprise or could just disappear.

It may all backfire, of course, with nary a stud between them, but I can’t imagine all of them busting. Even if they don’t all become studs, there should be enough players with a good future ahead of them to keep me in with a shout for a few years.

David is shocked at the Flacco valuation while Ian intently ignores him
David is shocked at the Flacco valuation while Ian intently ignores him

4) Contracts. Of course, the one thing I had forgotten to factor in was contracts. We have a limit as to the number of contract years that can be assigned at the start which means that some/many of these players will need renewing or releasing in a year or two. If I offer short term contracts to young players I run the risk of not being able to afford to keep them when that time comes around, but if I offer them longer contracts and they bust, I end up wasting money on them. It’s a fine balance, but one that effects everyone. The potential issue with all the rookies is if too many of them do too well too early and I can’t afford to keep them all, but that would be a nice problem to have and one I’ll worry about if or when it comes up.

Chris looks studious - you'd not guess he's from Manchester
Chris looks studious – you’d not guess he’s from Manchester

5) Other teams. It was really good to see the variety of approaches taken and I was very pleased by the balance across the league. I think some teams are better than others, but there’s no one there who will be either winning or losing all their games this year. I was concerned some teams might end in a terrible state and that poor balance might lead to managers wanting to leave the league but I don’t think there’s a risk of that. I have my own favourites for the title this year, but I think it’s pretty wide open. Despite my plans for the future, I think I stand a chance of the playoffs this season, and if that’s achieved, who knows what will happen?

So overall it’s been a great deal of fun so far, and it’s opened my eyes to a lot of things. It could have been a farce and, in many ways, it was a bit, but we’ve ridden through the storm and now can’t wait to get down to the real business, when we see just how wrong we were about the players we bought.

Laughter after David unveils an hilarious stat about Colin Kaepernick
Laughter after David unveils an hilarious stat about Colin Kaepernick

(NB all photos and video courtesy of Ben Archer)

The Tamworth Two

Mat Ward (left) and James 'Goody' Goodson
Mat Ward (left) and James ‘Goody’ Goodson

In January 1998, two Tamworth pigs escaped as they were being unloaded at an abattoir and went on to become a national and international cause celebre. Subsequently named Butch and Sundance, the pair were spared their certain death when The Daily Mail bought them and their exclusive story. Sixteen years later, their story is just a distant memory (the pigs died in 2010 and 2011 aged 13 and 14), but it comes rushing back to me when I ask Mat Ward and James ‘Goody’ Goodson about their DynaBowl franchise. Despite being awarded the an organisation in the fantasy NFL start-up, the pair have yet to name or locate their team and I want to know about their plans.

“Has anyone taken Tamworth?” asks Ward, an experienced tri-athlete and clearly the ‘Butch’ of this partnership, “Is Tamworth still available?”

At least the pair are singing from the same hymnsheet. “Tamworth? I hope Tamworth is available. It’s the type of intimidating locale we should be aiming for,” says Sundance… sorry, Goody.

It’s difficult to tell if they’re serious, but if the stadium plans on display in their office on the 85th floor of The Shard in central London is anything to go by then Tamworth is in for some serious regeneration. The 250,000 capacity stadium would be the largest in the world, something truly unprecedented, but at the moment it is only a pipedream.

As they appear coy about the plans for their franchise I change tack and ask about their working relationship.

“Our working relationship is very much in its nascent stages,” says Ward. “Although, I think we are agreed that James is the Head Coach and I am the waterboy.” Goody is a little more candid. ” I don’t think there will be one lead, more of a synergy of visions. A dynamic hybrid of wit and cunning. Our relationship will be the definition of ‘nuanced’. I don’t even care if that doesn’t make sense.”

It’s clear they are close. Their office features two offset desks pointing in opposite directions; between them what’s normally referred to as a ‘kissing bench’ ensures the pair are always on hand to each other.

Ward & Goodson's choice of office furniture
Ward & Goodson’s choice of office furniture

Goody sets the bar high for the partnership. ” To summarise, I think Mat and I will be the best joint managers since Steve Gritt and Alan Curbishley took over Charlton in 1991. You have been warned.”

Of course, the close working relationship can’t last, with Ward due to return to America in under a month, narrowly missing out on a chance to attend the DynaBowl auction in Sheffield on July 12.

“I’d love to make an appearance at the auction, but unfortunately it’ll have to be via video conference rather than in person,” he laments. But being bi-continental has its advantages. “With the time difference we will be able to work on our team approximately 20 hours a day without losing sleep.” It’s also clear he’s also been learning from the best: “We’ve managed to have a brief conversation or two with some league connections. I can’t reveal any names, but I will say that I’ve picked up some tips on spying on NFL teams in training.”

Belichick - "An inspiration and Adonis"
Belichick – “An inspiration and Adonis”

Goody agrees that a man on the ground across the pond will be advantageous, but it’s also obvious he expects a lot from his colleague. ” I like a tight ship. I would be disappointed if I don’t have a scout report in my inbox each Friday after Thursday Night Football from Mat.”

The light tone of the conversation comes down a little when I ask about their preparations. Both men took charge of teams in the Chatterbowl in 2013 and will be doing so again in 2014, but the DynaBowl is a whole different beast – one of Mason Verger’s killer pigs to the Chatterbowl’s sweet Tamworth piglets. So how do they feel their experiences in the Chatterbowl will prepare them?

” I love two things in life,” says Goody, “Hazing and spreadsheets. Both are mutually beneficial to the NFL. I enjoyed learning about it as a complete noob and got sucked in to reading several blogs or columns a week about it. By about 3 weeks in, I had a few spreadsheets on the go and knew who was under performing and who I wanted in the free agency.”

His preparation and research paid off as he went to the playoffs as the number 1 seed, but a disastrous 56 point performance in the semi-finals put paid to his title dreams, eventually securing the 3rd place finish. “It was tough and I still have limited knowledge on the whole thing,” he confesses. “In one way our inexperience may help us see the wood through the trees. Or maybe blow up in our faces with more busts than booms.”

Ward wasn’t quite as successful, narrowly missing the playoffs in a tight division that came down to the last week. He subsequently ‘won’ the loser ladder and a 9th place finish in the league. ” It was a pretty steep learning curve but part of me feels that coming to league with no preconceptions helped. It will be good to start the new season with a broader knowledge base of players. The big difference is the inclusion of defensive players. I’ve head of this Revis guy and the bully guy but that’s about it.”

Of course, you shouldn’t take those statements at face value. The approach of the auction means it’s every team’s duty to sell misinformation about knowledge and targets. Underestimate these two at your peril.

” James Goodson is one of the sharpest minds in fantasy sports. I’m relying on him to pick up most of the Denver Broncos’ offense remarkably cheaply again,” says Ward, referring to Goody’s Chatterbowl strategy.

One of the targets that it’s pretty well known they’re keen on is Andrew Luck, but recent analysis has shown he might not be the valuable investment people think he is. What do the pair make of that?

Mat takes the lead: “Andrew Luck is the greatest prospect since Elway. Good ‘Luck’ outbidding us for him.” But as he says it the air turns heavy. Is this the first sign of troubled waters in Tamworth?

“Mat took my only Andrew Luck joke,” says Goody, through gritted teeth, before letting on the terms he might consider sinking to should they be out bid for the QB of his dream and be negotiating a trade. “It’s no secret that I [will] suck for Luck.”

And why does he view the QB nicknamed Andrew The Giant? ” He’s an all round nice guy who falls within a nice ethical framework for our franchise. Which will probably be based out of Tamworth. No racists, no bullies, no safeties that have got away with homicide. You get the picture.”

So this is a franchise that will be investing for the long term? “Seriously, I think it’s a trap to get too focused on the medium to long-term and be always playing for 3 seasons’ time,” says Ward. “The key focus should be on the upcoming season.”

” Mat is right,” says Goody, the storm clouds now passed. “You can’t be too caught up on the long term. Even the most ardent Draft scouts regularly get it wrong. The average peak for most players is only a couple of years, which means, although it’s a high risk environment, the continual turnover of the next ‘big thing’ is pretty accommodating.”

“Still, that doesn’t mean I won’t be turning up to Sheffield with several spreadsheets, my Bluetooth headset on, and Mat on speed dial. We will have the best war room. As Mat always says, buy cheap, buy twice. We want the best players.”

As frequently as the pair speak as if they are the left and right sides of one brain, ever so often a disparity seeps through, as happens when I ask the key questions.

Who are the pre-auction favourites?

Goody: Whoever gets Andrew Luck.

Ward: Us. Next Question.

And what’s a realistic goal for the team going into the inaugural season?

Goody: To have a jolly good time and try our best. Hurrah!

Ward: DynaBowl or bust!

Either way, for Butch and Sundance, the DynaBowl is jumping in at the deep end.

Ward & Goodson dive into the DynaBowl
Ward & Goodson dive into the DynaBowl