Tag: Rookies

Rating our own drafts

First up, lets do a quick summary of how everyone thought they did. Here’s how we each rated our own draft (except Pete and Max):

Team	Rating	Comments
Brees	6	It was fine. Always going to be tough at 10th pick and no 3rd round pick. Missed out on a few players we wanted, but also think we got some decent picks on off and def
T2	6	Very few picks, and the offensive targets taken off the board early. Saying that, I did get a couple of my targets for D. So 8/10 on that side but 4/10 on the Offence.
Sadness	4	I’m not excited by any of the players I’ve drafted
Losers	8	Went better than I expected
Hurricanes	4	Average
Bombermen	9	Beyond trading a handful of magic beans for Bijan, I don’t think it could have gone much better really. Sure, there were some long shot running backs I’d been keen on picking up later who went earlier than I expected/hoped, but I think my top 7 picks all stand a chance of being starters by the end of year two and then I like the wildcards I picked up. I don’t have expectations for any of them to be starters, really, but as lottery tickets, I think they’re decent.
Kelkowski	6	Tried to trade with Neil for Bijan. Should have pushed harder. Besides that got some of my main targets but missed out on a couple I really wanted that just didn’t fall to me
Dyna Hard	8	I got Bijan which starts me at a 10. But I reached on Richardson, Downs (I think, I had him as a late 1st talent, but thought I could have got him in the 3rd) and Musgrave, which knocks a couple of marks off for me.

So that’s only Neil and Mike who think they didn’t do at least above average. We’ll see how that chimes with what the rest of the league thought.

As to players people missed out on, only one player got two mentions: Chase Brown. Beyond that, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter, Jalin Hyatt and Tyler Scott each got a nod.

I asked people about overall philosophy. A couple of people mentioned BPA, a couple mentioned focusing on need, and then we had a few people focusing on stocking up at different positions: QB (twice), RB (twice), WR (twice), TE, DE, DT and “all defenders”, so literally everything bar kicker and punter. Which is probably a) why everyone is relatively happy with their draft as we weren’t really competing with each other and b) why Pete ended up with a kicker and a punter.

Right, that’s enough for overview, let’s get on to where we slated each other’s picks. I’ve decided to do some tables even though LibreOffice is fucking useless with them.

Pete

As always, I’m starting with Pete because his team gets listed first and I don’t know why that is. I’m just bitter about always having to scroll right to the bottom of things to see my team.

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	1.02 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR (7 votes)	2.02 Kendre Miller RB (1)
Best value	Kendre Miller (4)	3.02 Marvin Mims WR (3)
Worst value	4.02 Zach Evans RB Marvin Mims (2)	5.02 Israel Abanikanda RB 5.11 Siaki Ika DT 5.12 Mazi Smith DT Kendre Miller (1)
Likely bust	Marvin Mims (5)	Kendre Miller (2)
Sleeper	7.02 Jordan Battle S (7)	8.02 Ethan Evans P (2)

Always a good start when your first 2 picks split votes for best player, and then your 2^nd and 3^rd picks are hailed as good value (although possibly a warning sign that you didn’t really get a standout pick). With pretty much every pick getting a vote for worst value, either that means it was a tough call to find bad value or you screwed up the whole draft. Jordan Battle seems to be well liked as a potential sleeper. So all in all, it seems a solid draft but probably unspectacular draft. And that’s what our ratings said: an average of 6, with a low of 4 and high of 8.

That’s reflected in the comments. If there was a word cloud it would say “safe”, “solid”, “good”, “decent” in big letters and not much else. JSN seemed to be his most controversial pick based on the comments, as a couple of people questioned taking him over Gibbs or looking to trade down (or at least questioned whether we should question it, which is far too meta at this point of the analysis). Given the absolute lack of trades and the general consensus that Pete is rebuilding, taking a WR seems sensible to me.

Ben and Stew

Reigning champions, do we think they are building a dynasty or, like Brees himself, are they destined to pad their stats for the rest of their career?

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	2.10 Bryce Young QB(4)	1.10 Zach Charbonnet RB (3)
Best value	8.10 BJ Ojulari DE Zach Charbonnet (2)	4.10 Myles Murphy DE 6.18 AT Perry WR Bryce Young (1)
Worst value	Bryce Young (4)	Zach Charbonnet (2)
Likely bust	Zach Charbonnet Bryce Young Myles Murphy (3)	No one
Sleeper	BJ Ojulari (4)	7.10 Ji’Ayir Brown S (3)

The analysis here is very simple. We loved Bryce Young and Zach Charbonnet, we thought that Zach Charbonnet and to a lesser extent Bryce Young were good value, we though that Bryce Young and to a lesser extent Zach Charbonnet were bad value, and we think that Charbonnet and Young will be busts. Or good. BJ Ojulari got 2 votes for best player but only 4 people thought he’d be useful, so I guess there was a pretty wide divergence of opinion on him. The voting seems to back up our nonplussed opinion of this draft, with an average of 4.9, with a high of 7 and a low of 2, against his own rating of 6.

The comments seem to flag up that its tricky having the #10 pick: 6 comments, and 4 mentioned the challenge of picking at 10. Won’t someone think of the poor champions? And hey, two people did! Interestingly one person (I think it was Slatz, but I can’t be arsed actually checking) referred to Bryce Young as a “low-upside QB”, which I think is a bit harsh. I see him more as a high downside QB, with his tiny frame, but if he stays healthy he could be Burrow or Herbert level.

Tamworth Two

He came into the draft with the least amount of capital, what did we think?

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	3.07 Tyjae Spears RB 4.07 Calijah Kancey DT 6.07 Luke Schoonmaker TE (2)	5.07 Emmanuel Forbes CB (1)
Best value	Luke Schoonmaker (5)	6.06 Adetomiwa Adebawore DT Tyjae Spears (1)
Worst value	Emmanuel Forbes (6)	Tyjae Spears (1)
Likely bust	Tyjae Spears (4)	Emmanuel Forbes (3)
Sleeper	7.07 Sydney Brown S (5)	8.07 SirVocea Dennis LB 9.07 Ventrell Miller LB (2)

I feel like its not looking good for Goody here. When your 6^th round pick ties in the vote for best player, either you got the best steal since Tom Brady, or no one liked your early picks. Everyone agreed Schoonmaker was great value though. And everyone (bar one mad person who called him best player, but I thought Pete and his CB fetish didn’t vote?) thought Forbes was bad value. But Sydney Brown is another safety that we liked as a late pick.

Goody came out with an average of 4.5, with a high of 7 and a low of 1, against his own rating of 6. I think “divisive” is the best word for this one. One person called the draft “fucking amazing”, one person called it solid. But then three panned it, saying that it was “awful”, that there was a lack of contributors in the draft, and lots of contenders for worst value. But well done everyone for factoring in draft capital – pretty much everyone mentioned the lack thereof in their comment.

Mike

We’re four teams in and I’ve already run out of intro material. This is promising.

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	2.04 Dalton Kincaid TE (6)	3.04 Drew Sanders LB (2)
Best value	Dalton Kincaid Drew Sanders 7.04 Devon Witherspoon CB (2)	6.14 Keion White DT 5.04 Nolan Smith DE (1)
Worst value	Drew Sanders 4.04 Cedric Tillman WR 1.04 Zay Flowers WR (2)	6.04 Sean Tucker RB 8.04 Gervon Dexter DT (1)
Likely bust	None of the above (4)	Zay Flowers (2)
Sleeper	Devon Witherspoon (6)	9.04 Keaton Mitchell RB 10.04 Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR 12.04 Jammie Robinson S (1)

Kincaid seems pretty universally liked, while Sanders feels divisive – 2 calls for best player, 2 for best value, and 2 for worst value. The lack of mention of their 1^st round pick until worst value feels worrying, but at the same time Flowers only taking away two votes in that category makes it seem like its possible that pick was fine, its just that they picked up better players later on. And Devon Witherspoon seems to be adored. If you all like him so much, why didn’t you pick him?

The grading supports the general positive vibes: an average of 7.4, with a high of 9 and a low of 4, against his own rating of 4. Yes, we all like the players that Mike drafted far more than Mike, who drafted them, did. He was the only person to outperform his own rating by more than 0.1, and did it by 3.4 points. Cheer up mate. Maybe some of these comments will help: “Well done Mike, you bastard.” “I like a lot of this.” “Took a few from me when I was lining them up.” “Considered and strong.” “Really solid middle section.” (I think those last two are still about the draft, but they might be a personal reviews)

Slatz

Slatz thought he was a big winner in the draft. Did everyone else think he was a loser?

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	1.09 Jalen Carter DT (3)	2.01 Devon Achane RB (2)
Best value	3.09 Michael Mayer TE (5)	4.09 Daiyan Henley LB 7.09 Will Levis QB (1)
Worst value	Jalen Carter (3)	Devon Achane Will Levis (2)
Likely bust	Devon Achane (5)	Michael Mayer (3)
Sleeper	Will Levis (4)	10.09 Ivan Pace LB (2)

Another interestingly divisive one. Carter heads up the list for best player and worst value, with Achane just behind him in both. Mayer gets the nod for best value but also solid consideration for most likely to bust. Depending who you ask, Will Levis is good value, bad value, a sleeper, or a freak who puts mayo in his coffee.

That all led to a very wide range of scores. An average of 5.6, with a high of 9 and a low of 1, against his own score of 8. One person called it a disappointing first 3 rounds, but one person said great early picks and then tailed off. One person called Achane a great pick, one called him a waste of a pick. One loved him getting Carter, one said it was bad value. One called it a bumper crop, one said he was picking players they weren’t interested in. If his draft was an equation, it’d all cancel out and just leave an equals sign.

Neil

I think its fair to say that Neil’s trade of the #1 pick is going to be a defining factor in this section.

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	5.05 DeWayne McBride RB (3)	2.09 Rashee Rice WR (2)
Best value	DeWayne McBride (3)	3.06 Chase Brown RB (2)
Worst value	4.01 CJ Stroud QB Rashee Rice Chase Brown (2)	3.01 Tyree Wilson DE (1)
Likely bust	Rashee Rice Chase Brown (4)	Tyree Wilson (3)
Sleeper	9.01 Jatavius Martin S (4)	None of the above (2)

I think at this point I should say that I haven’t looked at the results before writing this up, and I write up this section first before looking at the overall scores and comments. But I get the feeling Neil is going to be in for a rough ride here. He came into the draft with the #1 pick and the consensus best player he drafted was at pick 45. Chase Brown is oddly divisive. Remember two people called him someone they wanted and didn’t get. Maybe those two people are the two who voted him best value, and everyone else called him either bad value or a likely bust (or both). Maybe it was the same two people who absolutely loved him? Tyree Wilson doesn’t seem to be as beloved by us as by the NFL though. But we all seem to like some DeWayne McBride, even if all he’s taught me is that I just cannot type DeWayne right at the first time of asking.

I’m not sure if Neil’s scores are divisive or just have one outlier. He got an average of 2.7, with a low of 1 and a high of 8 (the next highest was 3), against his own rating of 4. Trading away #1 seems to be the focus of the ire here: most people mentioned that trade as a negative (and one person basically just typed F over and over again, which I assume wasn’t a positive). People also didn’t like his trade in the 6^th round, but I think at least part of that is that people were allergic to trading in this draft. But three people said that they actually liked his picks. I think one person summed it up very nicely: “the picks he made were fine, the picks he didn’t make were awful.”

Benj

Benj gave himself the highest rating of anyone at 9, so lets see if we agree. He’s probably helped himself, because Benj is the first person so far to fail to skip the section marking his own draft. I can’t be bothered to try to take his ratings out of it though.

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	1.03 Jahmyr Gibbs RB (5)	3.03 Jalin Hyatt WR (2)
Best value	Jalin Hyatt (3)	4.03 Lukas Van Ness DE (2)
Worst value	Lukas Van Ness 6.12 Puka Nacua WR 2.03 Roschon Johnson RB (2)	6.03 Brian Branch S 5.03 Trenton Simpson LB (1)
Likely bust	None of the above (4)	Roschon Johnson (3)
Sleeper	8.03 Keeanu Benton DT (3)	7.03 Charlie Jones WR 11.03 Andrei Iosivas WR None of the above (2)

Gibbs seems to be very well liked – one person pegged him as a bust, but otherwise he dominated the best player stakes, and Hyatt seems to be a popular pick. But then there’s more negativity in the middle rounds, and not a huge amount of votes for his later picks. But also there’s nothing that people see as a particularly egregious error either – Roschon Johnson maybe, but even with him more people think he won’t be a bust than that he will.

That leads to a pretty strong consensus on Benj’s draft. An average of 7.1, with a high of 9 and a low of 6. It’s not the 9 that he predicted himself, but its good. Unfortunately that meant that the comments don’t have much unexpected. People liked Gibbs, people thought there was good depth throughout, although a couple of people commented that his later picks tailed off a bit. One person also pointed out that he managed a Jamie Oliver approved “Puka Tucker” combo.

Max

The best researched draft, so I’m expecting some very well thought out comments in response.

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	1.05 Jordan Addison WR (4)	2.05 Jack Campbell LB (2)
Best value	3.10 Sam Laporta TE (5)	Jack Campbell Jordan Addison 3.05 Jayden Reed WR (1)
Worst value	Jack Campbell (5)	4.05 Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE 6.05 DeMarvion Overshow LB 7.05 Deneric Prince RB(1)
Likely bust	Jack Campbell (3)	Jordan Addison Jayden Reed None of the above (2)
Sleeper	8.05 Byron Young DE (6)	10.05 Henry To’oto’o LB None of the above (1)

This feels like a tale of a draft that starts quite strongly and then goes downhill after Sam Laporta. We all hailed him as good value, and agreed that the first two guys he took were the best players (although Jack Campbell probably could have gone later). But apart from Byron Young no one seems to have liked his late picks at all.

That ends up giving an average of 6, with a high of 8 and a low of 4. In lieu of having Max’s own rating, I have a picture of the distribution of our ratings.

Our comments lauded Max’s humour, as well as all of his earlier picks. A couple of people complained about Campbell being a reach and lamented how long Max took to draft (can’t wait to see what people say about my drafting speed…). People also seem divided about whether Max really doesn’t know what’s going on, or whether he’s actually secretly well researched. Or maybe there’s just a strong correlation between funny names and successful NFL players?

Ian

Ian took the first defensive player, which is often divisive. Well, its divisive to me anyway, in that I usually disagree with it.

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	1.08 Will Anderson DE (5)	2.08 Jonathan Mingo WR (2)
Best value	Jonathan Mingo (2)	Will Anderson 8.08 Dontayvion Wicks WR 5.08 Michael Wilson WR 4.08 Bryan Bresee DT 3.08 Tank Bigsby RB (1)
Worst value	Jonathan Mingo Bryan Bresee Tank Bigsby (2)	Michael Wilson (1)
Likely bust	Tank Bigsby (5)	Jonathan Mingo (2)
Sleeper	None of the above (2)	7.08 Justin Shorter WR Dontayvion Wicks 8.12 YaYa Diaby DE 10.08 Parker Washington WR 12.08 Garrett Williams CB (1)

Once you get past Will Anderson, there’s not a lot of consensus here. Maybe that we didn’t like Tank Bigsby, with only one vote for him as best value and 7 combined votes for worst value and most likely to be a bust. Ian is the first to get “None of the above” for picking a sleeper, which is something?

It all adds up to a surprisingly (to me) high average of 5.8, with a high of 8 and low of 4, against his own rating of 6. I thought that the table above seemed to say that no one really thought too much of this draft, so I was expecting 4 to 6 as the range. The comments tend to call it unexciting: “nice and steady”, “middle of the road”, “not blown away”. Mingo got the most name checks amongst the comments, but they were a mixed bag (apart from the comment that pointed out “With Mingo and Dorian, we’ve almost got a misspelled tropical fruits theme going on”, which is genius).

Chris

With Neil getting panned primarily for the Bijan trade, I’m hoping that I get some rave reviews.

Category	Our pick	Runner up
Best player	1.01 Bijan Robinson RB (7)	None.
Best value	Bijan Robinson (6)	5.01 Will McDonald DE (1)
Worst value	4.06 Tank Dell WR 2.07 Luke Musgrave TE 1.07 Anthony Richardson QB (2)	1.06 Quentin Johnson WR (1)
Likely bust	2.06 Josh Downs WR (4)	Luke Musgrave None of the above (2)
Sleeper	8.11 Isaiah Foskey DE (3)	9.06 Marte Mapu LB (2)

Seems like people like Bijan, the only consensus pick in any category throughout the draft. I’m not surprised about the relatively wide spread of worst value, as I think I reached on a few players. If anything, I’m surprised that Josh Downs didn’t get any votes in that category.

That adds up to an average of 8.1, with a high of 10. The voting was two 10s, 4 9s and a 1, which is a very confusing spread and not explained by the comments. Maybe the rankings were confusing? A 10 was labelled as Die Hard 1, a 1 was labelled as Die Hard 5. Maybe someone misunderstood? Because I can’t imagine anyone thinking “oh yeah, Die Hard 5, that must be the highest rating.” Those were the only 10s given out in the draft. Thank you. My own rating was an 8, so not too bad. The comments seemed to be a mix of praise (“ridiculous”, “smashed the draft”, “nailed it” and “blistering”) and abuse “fuck this guy”. I still think its a bit generous – I reckon you lot are too low on Olave and I reached a bit too much on my other picks.

Overall

So how did we stack up overall then?

Team	Average rating	Own rating	Difference
Dyna Hard	8.1	8	-0.1
Sadness	7.4	4	-3.4
Bombermen	7.1	9	+1.9
Champions	6	N/A	N/A
Dungeoneers	6	N/A	N/A
Kelkowski	5.8	6	+0.2
Losers	5.6	8	+2.4
Brees	4.9	6	+1.1
T2	4.5	6	+1.5
Hurricanes	2.7	4	+1.3

Chris and Ian were closest to their own ratings, Mike was furthest away (and basically the only one who underrated his own draft), Slatz was most over-optimistic. And we managed to avoid voting for the teams with the least draft capital as worst drafts, but mainly thanks to everyone hating Neil’s trade.

I also took a look at who we think is most likely to be a bust or sleeper.

	1^st	2^nd	3^rd
Bust	Tank Bigbsy Devon Achane Marvin Mims (5)	Josh Downs Rashee Rice Tyjae Spears (4)	Too many people to list (3)
Sleeper	Jordan Battle (7)	Devon Witherspoon Byron Young (6)	Sydney Brown (5)

Technically there’s some bias towards Pete, Max and Benj’s players here as two didn’t complete the survey and Benj voted on his own draft, so they had a max of 8 possible votes compared to 7 for everyone else. I am mildly surprised that we had far more of a consensus on sleepers than busts. To get a sleeper, lots of people need to want the player but pass on them, but to get a bust only one person needs to like a player way more than consensus. Odd.

Trades

I have a feeling I know what the vote on one of these trades will be.

Bijan Robinson trade: 7 votes for Chris, 0 for Neil.
Pick 6.01 (Deuce Vaughn) for a 2024 6^th: 5 votes for Mike (Vaughn side), 1 for Neil, 2 for about even
Miles Sanders for 3.10 (Sam Laporta): 7 votes for about even, 1 for Max (Laporta side).
A couple of players on either side but mainly 2.01 for 2.09: 6 votes for Slatz (2.01 side), 2 votes for Neil.
Mark Ingram for 6.10 (Josh Whyle): 5 votes for about even, 2 votes for Pete (6.10 side), 1 vote for Brees.
Devin Duvernay for 5.05 (DeWayne McBride): 3 votes for about even, 3 votes for Neil (5.05 side), 2 votes for Max.

Not a huge amount to add here. The lack of trades was disappointing and surprising.

Other draft bits and pieces

For biggest surprise, trades got mentioned a lot. 6 people mentioned trades in the 8 comments. 5 people mentioned the Bijan trade as biggest surprise and 2 people mentioned lack of trades (and one person mentioned both). The only player pick that was a surprise was Richardson at 1.07.

SirVocea Dennis took away the coveted best name trophy with 3 votes. Zack Kuntz and Bumper Pool ran him close with 2 votes a piece, and Jammie Robinson got the bronze medal. I meant to leave an “other” here – I can’t remember if I did and they just got no votes, or whether I forgot. Let’s not worry about it. You’ve probably stopped reading by now.

One person thought the draft should have been in May, 7 people said the timing was just right. Same time next year then lads? And 6 of 8 people said they were happy with free agency running alongside the draft, with only 1 person outraged. So we could happily continue that next year too. And 4 people said the draft took about the right amount of time, 3 said too long and 1 said too short. So pencil in around 8 days next year too.

In terms of who has been best at picking rookies in Dbowl history, Chris got 5 votes, Benj got 2 and Goody got 1. That’s the second year in a row that Chris has led this category (3 votes last year), and Benj and Goody were also name checked last year, with 1 vote each. Max got 2 votes last year and none this year, despite outperforming Goody according to our ratings (6 v 4.5), so its a bit surprising that he’s fallen off the list. Maybe his “I know nothing” propoganda during the draft worked?

The worst drafter crown is shared by Neil and Pete, with 3 votes each. Benj and Slatz got a vote a piece. Yep, Benj got votes for best drafter and worst drafter. I could probably run back through the last 4 years of surveys and see how that lines up to the voting, but I won’t. Neil took the worst drafter crown last year too, with 3 votes, and Pete (1) and Slatz (2) each got votes. Ben and Stew got a vote last year but none this year despite what was seen as a poor draft.

In terms of overall thoughts, three people referenced the disappointing lack of trades, but I feel like fatigue set in at this point, so I won’t dwell on this question and will probably remove it next year.

2023 Dynabowl season

Buoyed by a strong draft, Chris took home 50% of the votes to win the Dbowl title in 2023. 2 people voted for Slatz, and one a piece for the Brees and Max. Only 1 person said they wanted to vote for themselves but thought it was arrogant.

Neil got 7 votes for picking first in 2024, with Pete getting the other vote. 1 person admitted to voting for themselves. I’m assuming that was Neil just by sheer weight of votes.

The offensive rookie of the year vote was a three-headed race. “Bijan Robinson” picked up 4 votes, “Bijan” picked up 3 votes, and “Robinson” picked up 1. Should be a tight race. Maybe I should create a shortlist in future… Defensive rookie of the year was similarly consensus-driven, with some variant of Will Anderson picking up 7 votes, with Drew Sanders the outlier with the other vote.

A couple of vaguely interesting rules changes were suggested: scrapping all the bonus picks, changing the order of the bonus picks, and a lottery for the first 6 picks. Plus someone formally submitted one during the draft but forgot what it was, so it must have been very well thought through.

2023 NFL season

Bijan Robinson again got the nod for our NFL offensive rookie of the year (4 votes), with Bryce Young (2) and CJ Stroud/Jahmyr Gibbs (1 each) following him. And Will Anderson kept up the “life imitates fantasy” vibe with 5 votes for NFL defensive rookie of the year with 5 votes. Calijah Kancey, Jalen Carter and Christian Gonzalez got 1 each.

Mahomes got 4 votes for our NFL MVP, with Jalen Hurts picking up 2 and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson with 1 each. NFL Defensive Player of the Year was far less of a consensus, presumably because its not just limited to one position: Nick Bosa got 2 votes, then Sauce Gardner, Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Quinnen Williams and Micah Parsons each got 1. The Chiefs and Eagles tied as our Super Bowl favourites with 3 votes each, followed by the Bengals and Bills with a vote each. The Bucs and Titans are our Neil and Pete, with 2 votes each to pick first in the 2024 NFL draft. The Cardinals, Bears, Rams and Texans each got 1 vote.

Errata

There was no consensus on which fictional character you’d pick to play for your team. Superheroes featured heavily (Superman, Incredible Hulk, The Flash and Iron Man), literature/film came in second (Fezzik, Elizabeth Bennet and Mr Tickle) and actual fictional football came in third (Matt Saracen).

If anyone is interested in TV recommendations, there wasn’t one mentioned twice. Justified, Yellowjackets, The After Party, Colin From Accounts, The Rehearsal and Picard all got mentioned. In terms of book recommendations, 3 people said they didn’t read, and then the following were mentioned: Barca: The Rise and Fall of a Modern Superclub; The Devil in the White City; Jade City/Empire/Legacy; Murderbot; Shogun; Far From the Madding Crowd. Game recommendations didn’t get much interest: Clank in Space, Monopoly, Marvel Snap, Legacies, Unpacking, and Immortal. You can work out for yourself which are board games and which are video games.

And the question you’ve probably scrolled right to the end immediately to find the answer to: mightiest NFL dong. No consensus here: Bumper Pool, Hunter Renfrow, Nick Foles, Jalen Ramsey, Orlando Brown, Daniel Faalele and Dawand Jones each got a vote. As did Vietnam. The mystery continues.

Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

June 29, 2015

David Slater

With the draft in the books, it’s time to take stock and work out what it all means… Pre-draft needs are taken from the 2.0 draft.

DynaHarder

Pre-draft needs: QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S

What you started with: 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 4.11, 5.01, 5.11, 6.01, 7.01. Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, DeAngelo Williams

What you ended up with: Toddy Gurley, Marcus Mariota, David Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Jeremy Langford, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, Bradley Pinion, TY Hilton

The worst case: An over-used running back, with a succession of muscle injuries and topped off by one few, if any, players ever completely recover from, on a team who’s line has been rebuilt after stinking out 2014… Gurley out T-Riches T-Rich. The least Whisenhunt QB ever, going to work with Ken Whisenhunt, and two depth options from a moribund offence offer no viable fantasy starters. In fact, in the worst case scenario, the only fantasy relevant starter in this draft is a punter. At least there’s TY Hilton, until he signs somewhere else next year.

The upside: Hilton doesn’t land in a bad spot when he leaves the Colts. Gurley’s injury doesn’t take much of his top end and he becomes the best thing in St Louis since Faulk. Mariota rejuvenates the Titans offence, and Cobb quickly moves to the top of the depth chart behind a line which improves a lot as Warmack finally harnesses his talent. Bell replaces Jackson, Forte leaves the Bears and Diggs develops into Teddy’s favourite target. Then you wake up.

Realistically: Mariota may never be a fantasy starter, but he fills the need at QB, Gurley and Cobb offer solid RB3 options and Hilton is a very good WR2. The needs at TE and S can be filled in free agency, with good options available there.

Dynasty of Sadness

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.

What you started with: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.12, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02. Calais Campbell*, Cam Newton

What you ended up with: Ameer Abdullah, Jaelen Strong, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Bud Dupree, Arik Armstead, DeAndre Carter, Zach Zenner, Eddie Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Markus Wheaton, Sheldon Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Paul Richardson*, Drew Brees

The worst case: You wasted your top pick on a back up, and have thoroughly sewn up a wholly worthless Detroit backfield. Robinson and Jones are gambles that don’t work out. Armstead is a project who never projects to anything and Wheaton, Williams and Osweiler don’t even make it through roster cuts. With no targets in the passing game Brees wastes the last couple of years of his fantasy relevance and Teddy never kicks on, leaving two QBs who rank just outside the top 10. A third concussion in three years leads to a long lay off and he returns a shadow of his best on limited workloads, meanwhile Amari Cooper tears it up and somehow this trade ends up looking like the Sadness got the worst end.

The upside: Lacy is the RB1 the Sadness needed and Abdullah quickly replaces Bell who’d plateaued at mediocre to become a good RB2. Strong is a solid WR2/3, Richardson and Dupree are defensive starters, Jones replaces Morris who leaves in free agency and Robinson replaces Gore in 12 months. Carter outperforms Perriman and Armstead develops into the beast his physical stature suggests.

Realistically: Brees fills the need at QB immediately, giving time for Bridgewater to develop, Lacy is a definite filler for RB1. The need at TE could be filled in the medium term with a free agent rookie and Sheldon Richardson is a solid starting DE2. Dupree fills a need at LB and could play from year one. Need at DT remains. The Sadness are definitely improved in the draft, but for all the trading, they ended up with the same number of picks they started with and a lot of the trade pieces were middling at best.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pre-draft needs: RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.

What you started with: 1.03, 2.03, 2.11, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 6.03, 7.03. Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Steve Smith*, Brock Osweiler, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

What you ended up with: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devin Smith, Mike Davis, Rashad Greene, Paul Dawson, Cam Newton, Keenan Allen*, Vernon Davis, Darren Sproles, Ryan Tannehill

The worst case: You traded away a legitimate RB1 at pennies on the dollar, bringing in wide receivers who will get thrown the ball (sideways) by Derek Carr, Genome and sulky Jay Cutler (until he’s cut next summer). Cam is a busted flush, who isn’t a viable fantasy starter without running and Tannehill is not Brees. Keenan Allen turns out to be the guy from 2014, rather than 2013 and Vernon Davis and Darren Sproles are only starting because they play for the Dungeoneers.

The upside: Both Cooper and White hit big early, and given a couple of years Devin Smith develops into a viable starter when the Jets find a QB. Cam’s pocket passing develops, but he remains a big threat on the ground, and a top 5 QB, while Tannehill becomes good tradebait for a QB-needy team. Both Clay and Davis are solid TEs at least for the short term and Levy remains a top tier LB for a few more years. Gore turns out to be actually invincible as has long been suspected.

Realistically: At best one of Cooper and White develops into a top tier WR1/2, but the other is serviceable as a 3rd receiver. Yes, the team sucks this year, but that just puts them in a good position to get a good RB in 2016. Paul Dawson should be a fine ILB, and Keenan Allen’s true worth is probably as a decent WR2, regardless of which, stealing him for Steve Smith was a stroke of genius. Defensive End is still a problem.

Tamworth Two

Pre-draft needs: WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.

What you started with: 1.04, 2.04, 3.04, 4.04, 5.04, 6.04, 7.04. Markus Wheaton, Vernon Davis, Orlando Scandrick, John Brown, Darren Sproles

What you ended up with: DeVante Parker, Duke Johnson, Vic Beasley, DeAndre Smelter, Cameron Artis-Payne, Landon Collins, Denzel Perryman, Karlos Williams, Darren Waller

The worst case: The bust rate on first round receivers is massive, and even if Parker doesn’t bust, there’s no guarantee he is anything more than a low end fantasy starter or flex in Miami’s uninspired offence. Smelter is a reach who never becomes relevant, Johnson is part of a committee and Artis-Payne and Williams only handcuffs. A defensive starter or two don’t make up for the misses on offense, meanwhile John Brown lights it up for the Champions of the Sun.

The upside: Parker works well underneath in Miami’s new offence and gets volume yardage as well as red-zone action. Johnson establishes himself as the main back in Cleveland and Beasley, Collins and Perryman all serve their teams well. Smelter needs time but becomes a flex option, replacing Boldin, while Williams and Artis-Payne back up the main men on Tamworth Two just fine.

Realistically: Parker is probably a WR2 at best, with his viability underneath and in the red zone making him a good option for Tannehill who doesn’t have the arm to make good deep throws. Johnson is in a committee in Cleveland, but could end up being the main part of it, either way, he’s probably a low end RB2 at best. Beasley should be a viable DE and Perryman and Collins could also be viable positional starters. John Brown might be the new TY Hilton, but without Andrew Luck that doesn’t mean much.

Champions of the Sun

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2/3, WR3.

What you started with: 1.05, 2.05, 3.05, 4.05, 5.05, 6.05, 7.05. DeSean Jackson, Paul Richardson*, Da’Norris Searcy, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee.

What you ended up with: Jay Ajayi, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr, Thomas Rawls, Bernardrick McKinney, Hau’oli Kikaha, MyCole Pruitt, Michael Bennett, Marcel Dareus, Calais Campbell*, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, John Brown

The worst case: Ajayi never displaces Lamar Miller, Williams is used situationally, Fowler never makes it to the NFL due to injuries, Dareus moves to nose, Helu disappears into Oakland’s depth chart much as he did in Washington, neither of the Browns are viable starters and Michael Bennett is more of a nose alongside San’derrick Marks. Lots of flex players, but few starters.

The upside: John Brown is the new TY Hilton with Palmer back, Dante Fowley and Williams develop into top tier NFL ends, and MyCole Pruitt takes over as the Vikings Tight End. Dareus ends up with all the play of an end, while remaining a DT by position on MFL.

Realistically: Having traded down and then out of the first there wasn’t a potential star available, and picking up the best two defenders in the mid rounds represents value, if not necessarily guaranteeing any success. Ajayi might be short term due to injury concerns, but it’s a short term position anyway, and with bell leading the RBs there’s no need for him to be a star. Rawls is a wasted pick, but gives you a monopoly on the Seattle running backs who never actually play.

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Pre-draft needs: ‘elite’ players.

What you started with: 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 4.13, 5.06, 6.06, 7.06. Danny Lansanah, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Steven Jackson*

What you ended up with: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Justin Hardy, Trae Waynes, Shane Ray, Grady Jarrett, Trey Flowers, Christian Ringo, Jeremy Hill, Orlando Scandrick

The worst case: Gordon ensures control of a San Diego backfield that sucks, his tendency to bounce outside and get tackled for a loss, relying on speed to beat sub-par college players proves unsurprisingly unsuccessful in the NFL. Conley discovers why Kansas receivers didn’t score a TD at all last year, Hardy is the new Harry Douglas while David Johnson ensure Arizona’s committee of mediocrity is maintained. With Green returning and Bernard fitter, Hill ends up part of a committee also, although not as mediocre as the one in Arizona, neither Bernard nor Hill are much more than RB2s.

The upside: Hill, Ellington, Johnson and Bernard fall into more traditional 1/2 roles giving 2 good starters, Conley shows the reason why KC didn’t score touchdowns was a lack of talent, rather than Alex Smith & Andy Reid and Gordon is the game-changing playmaker the Chargers traded up for. Waynes is a solid selection at CB, and Scandrick makes up a starting pair at the position with him.

Realistically: There’s probably an RB1 somewhere in the mess of Ellington, Hill, Bernard, Johnson, Oliver and Gordon, but whether there’s more than one is hard to call, and they could easily all get in each others ways. Conley and Hardy are upside picks, but both probably top out at WR2 or WR3. Shane Ray could be a decent DE in a year’s time, but might not offer much immediately. Hill and Gordon offer the best chance of hitting on an elite player and Green’s return to fitness should provide one at WR, but ultimately, the need to find an elite player or two probably wasn’t met in this draft.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Pre-draft needs: QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.

What you started with: 1.07, 2.07, 3.07, 4.07, 5.07, 6.07, 7.07.

What you ended up with: TJ Yeldon, Devin Funchess, Stephone Anthony, Randy Gregory, Danny Shelton, Ahmed Brooks

The worst case: Gerhart takes over the Jags backfield making Yeldon wait. Funchess’ lack of pace combined with Cam’s erratic throwing make for a poor combination, Anthony barely plays, Shelton is a nose and Randy Gregory is a bit too much of a prick for the cowboys to stomach.

The upside: Gregory is a solid steal in the middle rounds, and Anthony blossoms with improved scoring for inside backers. Funchess is an Olsen like workable WR2, and Yeldon gives the Jags a proper running back threat, it not at elite one.

Realistically: There’s still a need at Tight End, and Shelton (being a Nose) is probably not going to fill the need at tackle. Projecting Anthony as an LB1 in the short-term seems a streatch, and the need at QB was not filled due to Kelkowski not recognising the danger when the Losers traded up. Yeldon might be a starter at RB, but there wasn’t too serious a need at the position anyway, so he might end up being a reasonable chip for a trade. Funchess could go either way, but projects as at best a bench option in a fairly limited Panthers passing attack.

DynaSore Losers

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB

What you started with: 1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08, 5.08, 6.08, 7.08. Sheldon Richardson.

What you ended up with: Nelson Agholor, Jameis Winston, Sammie Coates, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Clive Walford, Jake Ryan, Danielle Hunter

The worst case: Agholor dropped for a reason, and that reason was Sam Bradford, who isn’t good before he gets hurt and is Mark Sanchez after. Coates never gets a look in at Pittsburgh and Odighizuwa never replaces JPP. Winston meanwhile is every bit as good as advertised and becomes the best quarterback serving time in federal prison, trading Richardson for him turns out even worse as the massive hole at DE goes unfilled.

The upside: Winston is every bit as good as advertised in the NFL, proving to be almost as good as Luck and replacing Manning for 2016 in the Losers starting QB slot. Agholor develops into a WR1 due to his ability to turn routine plays into huge gains and be a threat in the red zone. Coates meanwhile shows his big game talent regularly, replacing Bryant and Wheaton as a clear #2 option for Roethlisberger. Ryan and Odighizuwa are solid defensive starters from the early days and Walford is a decent bench option at TE.

Realistically: There’s a hole at DE that Odighizuwa won’t fill in 2015, and Hunter is even less likely to. No viable tackle is found and the weaknesses in defence undermine the team by costing silly points each week. There is a serious lack of depth at RB, and even covering bye weeks, let alone injuries, will be tough.

Here Comes the Brees

Pre-draft needs: RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S

What you started with: 1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09. Marcel Dareus, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, Keenan Allen, Martellus Bennett

What you ended up with: Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Maxx Williams, Shaq Thompson, Garrett Grayson, Jordan Hicks, Steven Jackson*, Steve Smith*, DeSean Jackson, Danny Lansanah, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee

The worst case: Perriman, Dorsett and Williams offer little to nothing in 2015, and don’t exactly light it up in 2016 either. Jackson remains the boom/bust receiver who misses 2-4 games a year with injuries. Owning the browns backfield is as worthwhile as it would seem and Coleman is a RB2 in the good years. Keenan Allen refinds his 2013 form.

The upside: Coleman establishes himself early and for a number of years as an RB1-/2+ and Perriman replaces Smith fairly seemlessly as a WR2-/3+. Williams is a solid tight end with a QB who loves throwing to him, and establishes himself as a solid TE1 and Dorsett’s talent sees him work his way into the team in 2015, with Hilton barely missed in 2016. Marquise Lee becomes a good depth receiver with his fitness issues overcome.

Realistically: There were a lot of players drafted, but this is a long-term sort of draft. Tight Ends rarely offer much in year one, Dorsett doesn’t offer much hope of a strong first year and Baltimore’s offence is hardly electric, suggesting Perriman will need time also. Ultimately this draft was one to position the team to be more competitive in 2016, and Dorsett, Perriman and Coleman should do that. 2015 will likely be rough though.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Pre-draft needs: DE1, LB, CB, S

What you started with: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7.10. Jeremy Hill, TY Hilton, Ryan Tannehill

What you ended up with: Dorial Green-Beckham, Eric Kendricks, Javorius Allen, Mario Edwards Jr, Henry Anderson, Bryce Petty, Martellus Bennett, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

The worst case: Trading starting offensive pieces for middling offensive and defensive starters is a tactic that backfires. Bennett is an expensive back-up for Gronk if he stays fit and a poor replacement if he doesn’t, Edelman isn’t going to replace Jones if he gets injured (again), and Ogletree is an upgrade at LB but at a stiff price. Kendricks is an ILB and doesn’t crack the top 20 LBs any time soon, Allen is the 3rd RB in Baltimore and DGB is nowhere on the Titans depth chart. Henry Anderson joined one of the worst rushing defences in the NFL.

The upside: Anderson becomes the pass rush in Indianapolis and the upgrades on defence offer more to the Firebirds than they lose on offence. Edelman is a good WR2, with Jones fit ahead of him and Hill isn’t missed because Lynch and Anderson carry the rock effectively and a lot.

Realistically: If / when Jones gets an injury the team will suffer as Edelman simply doesn’t have the potential to put up WR1 points that Hilton did and while Hill won’t be missed with Anderson and Lynch putting up solid RB1 points it’s likely that the points gained on defensive upgrades such as Ogletree and Levy only balance those lost on offensive players, with the team overall showing more variance in scoring and losing one or two more games in down weeks as a result.

Ian Kulkowski’s 2014 Rookie Valuation Rankings

June 8, 2015

Commish

Auction Mock Draft Stock Watch No Comments

Guest submission from DynaBowl GM Ian Kulkowski

The previous article and the upcoming Dynabowl Rookie draft got me thinking about the value of rookies. This is an area that if a GM gets right could be the key to long term Dynabowl success which after all is what we all crave. In 20 years time the only thing that will matter is the numbers of Championships you have won.

The 10 Dynabowl GM’s have employed different strategies when it comes to building their rosters. Some have taken a ‘win now’ approach (Firebirds, Losers, Kelkowski) and applied a correspondingly low value to rookies. Some have taken the ‘dominate in the future’ approach (Bombermen, Dyna Hard, CotS) and have loaded their rosters with potential and don’t mind paying for it. Some have taken the radical ‘win never’ approach (Sadness) and loaded up on valuable Safeties.

Which will turn out to be the triumphant strategy only time will tell. Or maybe there is no correct way, maybe it’s all just down to dumb luck in the end.

One thing we do know going into the 2015 rookie draft is what the initial costs of our drafted rookies will be. There’s a handy table in the rules section of the Dynabowl website (www.dynabowl.com) –

Pick	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4
1	$20, 4 years	$10, 3-4 years	$6, 2-3 years	$3, 1-3 years
2	$19, 4 years	$10, 3-4 years	$6, 2-3 years	$3, 1-3 years
3	$18, 4 years	$10, 3-4 years	$6, 2-3 years	$3, 1-3 years
4	$17, 4 years	$10, 3-4 years	$6, 2-3 years	$3, 1-3 years
5	$16, 4 years	$9, 3-4 years	$5, 2-3 years	$2, 1-3 years
6	$15, 4 years	$9, 3-4 years	$5, 2-3 years	$2, 1-3 years
7	$14, 4 years	$9, 3-4 years	$5, 2-3 years	$2, 1-3 years
8	$13, 4 years	$8, 3-4 years	$5, 2-3 years	$2, 1-3 years
9	$12, 4 years	$8, 3-4 years	$4, 2-3 years	$1, 1-3 years
10	$11, 4 years	$7, 3-4 years	$4, 2-3 years	$1, 1-3 years
11	$11, 4 years	$7, 3-4 years	$4, 2-3 years	$1, 1-3 years
12	$11, 4 years	$7, 3-4 years	$4, 2-3 years	$1, 1-3 years (and all deeper picks)

So I thought if I applied to these costs to each of the rookies selected in 2014, ranked by their initial auction value I could somehow gage where, if at all any value could be achieved.

Round 1

Pick 1 – Sammy Watkins

Auction value $37, Rookie Value $20

Watkins was one of the highest ranked rookies going into last season (behind only Sankey possibly) so it’s no surprise he attained the highest auction value. At $37 this is way above what he would cost as a rookie. Watkins was the 26th ranked WR in our game last year with 133 points which in any normal season would be stellar for a rookie. Still Watkins will likely improve and should become a fixture in the top 20 WR’s. If he ever had someone decent throwing to him his value would be even greater.

So the conclusion is if you’d taken Watkins with the first pick at $20 I think you’d be pretty happy with the value you’d got. See where I’m going with this now? No? Not sure I do either. Anyway….

Pick 2 – Brandin Cooks

Auction value $33, Rookie Value $19

The second highest ranked rookie WR prior to last year’s draft was probably Cooks, especially given his nice landing spot with the Saints. The $33 the Bombermen paid is again more than the $19 the 2nd pick in the rookie draft would have cost. Cooks ended up as the 59th ranked WR last year with just 88 points. This came however in an injury shortened season where Cooks missed the last 6 games with a broken thumb. His per game points were 8.8 ranking him 25th amongst WRs. Looking forward Cooks is now the only receiver remaining in New Orleans so has tremendous potential, however the future remains unclear for the Saints so it’s difficult to judge how good a position being their no. 1 WR will be going forward.

At $19 though I think you would be pretty pleased with your investment of the no. 2 pick in Cooks.

Pick 3 – Teddy Bridgeater

Auction value $30, Rookie Value $18

Manboob clearly has the biggest mancrush on Teddy. It makes me sick. Of last season’s rookie QB’s he was probably most people’s no 1 by a small margin though I doubt many would have him ranked as the no. 3 rookie. Bridgeeater was the 22nd ranked QB last season behind the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith and just ahead of Kyle Orton. He should improve this season and possibly trouble the top 10-15 QB’s.

$18 would represent reasonable value for Bridgeeater, there are however a number of ‘safe’ older top 15 QB’s in our league who cost much less (Rapistberger $8, Tannehill $2, Manning $1, Romo $4) so maybe using the pick differently would be wiser.

Pick 4 – Mike Evans

Auction Value $30, Rookie Value $17

Evans had an exceptional season as a rookie last year finishing as the no. 10 overall WR in our game with 177 points. He has the opportunity to improve this season with a potentially improved QB situation with Heisman trophy winner and No.1 overall pick in this years NFL Jameis Winston behind center.

Evans is up there with the elite WR’s straight away so $17 represents exceptional value.

Pick 5 – Carlos Hyde

Auction Value $28, Rookie Value $16

Hyde was backup to Frank Gore in his rookie season with the 49ers hence he ended up as the 50th ranked running back with 69 points. With Gore now gone Hyde will get his chance as feature back so this year will be when his value is revealed. If Hyde doesn’t produce competition will come from Reggie Bush so he’s by no means a cert.

Determining Hyde’s value is difficult at this stage. If he makes the 49ers backfield his own and ends up as a top 15-20 back then the $16 investment is worthwhile. If he ends up in a committee then that price may not end up looking that good.

Pick 6 – Bishop Sankey

Auction Value $22, Rookie Value $15

Sankey was the no.1 ranked rookie going into last season but didn’t achieve that position amongst our rookies. We must have known something as Sankey disappointed last year finishing 43rd amongst RB’s despite being the lead back at Tennessee. He will get another shot as the lead back but will be on a shorter leash with this year’s 5th round pick David Cobb competing for time in the Titans backfield.

At this point $15 looks like poor value as there is a big chance Sankey could be a bust.

Pick 7 – Johnny Football

Auction Value $21, Rookie Value $14

Manziel’s rookie season was a disaster as he failed spectacularly to live up to the hype and spent the majority of the season as backup to Brian Hoyer for the Browns, ending up with a stint in rehab. It’s doubtful whether Manziel will make any impact this or any year although competition in Cleveland is never too fierce so his time may come one day.

Currently Manziel has very little dynasty value so $14 would be wasted.

Pick 8 – Jadeveon Clowney

Auction Value $20, Rookie Value $13

The no. 1 overall pick in last year’s NFL draft Clowney was unsurprisingly the highest priced rookie defender in our auction. Last year was a write off for Clowney after having two lots of surgery on his knee. Health will continue to be a question going into the 2015 season and it remains to be seen if Clowney can get back to where he was. If he does he will surely cement himself amongst the top LB’s in the game.

A fit Clowney should be amongst the top scoring LB’s but does $13 represent good value even here? Probably just about although if you look at the top scoring LB’s from last season only 5 of the top 25 cost more than $4 with most costing only $1.

Pick 9 – Ryan Shazier

Auction Value $19, Rookie Value $12

A surprise pick at no. 9 in our draft it’s fair to say the Steelers 1st round pick was probably not regarded as one of the top fantasy prospects. Like Clowney Shazier suffered with injuries in his debut season reducing him to only a handful of starts making it impossible to make a judgment at this stage.

Similarly to Clowney if Shazier delivers a fully fit season he could be amongst the top LB’s. It is however doubtful whether this is enough to represent value at $12.

Pick 10 – Tre Mason

Auction Value $16, Rookie Value $11

Mason was amongst the top RB prospects in last year’s rookie class and ended up rounding out our first round of rookies. After quickly usurping Zac Stacy & Benny Cunningham atop the Rams RB depth chart Mason performed well finishing 27th amongst RB’s despite not playing in the first 5 games. Going into 2015 Mason again finds himself 2nd on the Rams depth chart behind this year’s first round pick (and best of class amongst 2015 rookie backs) Todd Gurley. He undoubtedly has the ability to be a serviceable back but the situation doesn’t look great for the time being in St Louis.

At $11 Mason was decent value last year but the situation in St Louis makes the future uncertain.

Kommish Komment Korner

It’s worth noting that all of these players (I believe – I’ve not researched this Komment) were taken in the auction and the rookies taken in the post-auction roster filling exercise went much, much cheaper. Partially this was down to the by-then depleted finances of franchises but it was also, I believe, influenced by the fact that people were not directly bidding against each other. It is much easier to say “$19” for Ryan Shazier when someone has just said “$18” directly before you than it is to say “I’ll pay a maximum of $20 for Shazier” when you have no idea what else is also going on. The roster-filling stage had lots of bet-hedging going on and players went much cheaper than at auction. At least that’s how I’m explaining my overspending.

Drafting the 2014 Rookies

June 6, 2015

Commish

Mock Draft No Comments

The 2014 DynaBowl season is in the books and the 2015 rookie draft is just around the corner so now seems like a good time to look back at how the 2014 rookie draft might have gone, had it been a thing and had we known what we know now about the last year’s rookies.

I’m not looking at this from a team need perspective, merely ranking the players in the order that I might have had them on my draft board if I knew then what I know now. Maybe.

1. Odell Beckham Jr – New York Giants/Dynasty of Sadness

The star of the season, the star of the Madden cover for 2015 and the star of Tinder profiles around the world. Probably.

Also, the player most likely to become a super hero.

2. Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Champions of the Sun

The consensus number 2 rookie last year is the number 2 rookie in this revision. Only he’s behind a different guy this time. He’s very tall, which may help prevent some of the many INTs Jameis Winston is going to try to throw this year.

3. Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills/Dyna Hard

Had a more typical rookie WR season, and one which, in normal years, would be considered outstanding. Last year was not a normal year for rookie WRs. If Buffalo ever find someone who can throw a football (or even look like they’ve seen a football before), he could turn out to be very special indeed.

4. Jeremy Hill – Cincinnati Bengals/Dynablaster Bombermen

A weak year for rookie running backs, but Hill overcame the odds and has left the Bengals with a nice decision to make over how best to utilise him and Geovani Bernard.

5. Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints/Dynablaster Bombermen

He got injured, yes, but that doesn’t really matter for this. The key was he looked like he belonged and, given his mentality, he’s only likely to improve. May not become an elite guy – he’s too small for that – but if he becomes Randall Cobb 2.0 I’ll be very happy.

6. Kelvin Benjamin – Carolina Panthers/Dynablaster Bombermen

He was basically the only WR the Panthers had last year. Now they have Funchess to play opposite him he won’t attract quite so much attention. However, he drops a few too many balls. Improve that stat and he would leap a few slots.

7. Jordan Matthews – Philadelphia Eagles/Dynablaster Bombermen

The Eagles have slowly removed every other potential WR1 from their books leaving Matthews as the main man. For now. Agholor could change that, but, for now, the leading WR in a Chip Kelly offense is a desirable component.

8. Aaron Donald – St Louis Rams/Here Comes The Brees

The first defensive player on the list and the first of two Rams/Brees rookies. High scoring in his rookie season, finishing 2nd at DT behind Suh. Unlikely to become JJ Watt (which is like saying a member of Coronation Street is unlikely to become Neo from the Matrix) (And I don’t mean unlikely to become Keanu Reeves, I mean actually Neo), but likely to remain a top scoring defensive player for years to come.

9. Carlos Hyde – San Francisco 49ers/Dynablaster Bombermen

Had a time share role with Frank Gore and showed he can be a solid, though not spectacular back. Probably a FF RB2 going forward now that the job is his alone to lose.

10. Tre Mason – St Louis Rams/Here Comes The Brees

On performance last year he might deserve to be a couple of slots higher. After the signing of Gurley in the 2015 rookie draft he might deserve to be a couple of slots lower. For now he can sit here.

11. Jarvis Landry – Miami Dolphins/Tamworth Two

OBJ’s college roommate. The pair practiced one-handed catches together. The Dolphins now have a crowded roster with Stills, Cameron, and the newly signed DeVante Parker, but Landry could play a big role going forward.

12. Charles Sims – Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Here Comes The Brees

Came in as the third man in line but Doug Martin is made of biscuits and the Buccs are thought to be promoting Sims to starter for 2015.

13. Teddy Bridgeater – Minnesota Vikings/Dynasty of Sadness

Terrible pro-day and his hands are too small. Isn’t that the received wisdom? In 2014 he was head and shoulders above the other rookie QBs.

14. Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers/Dyna Hard

Solid first season that would be seen a good building block for a rookie WR were it not for every WR above him on this list.

15. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Dynablaster Bombermen

Tight Ends typically do very little in their first season. ASJ did very little in his first season, but he did a little more than Eric Ebron. He looked more up to speed with the NFL and he was playing with a terrible QB. In 2015, he’ll be playing with a slightly better (though considerably more rapey (allegedly)) QB.

16. Jerrick McKinnon – Minnesota Vikings/Champions of the Sun

Showed some decent glimpses in a time-share role with Matt Asiata and with AP’s role up in the air a chance could be there for the taking. Or he could be Christine Michael in colder climes and never amount to anything.

17. Kyle Fuller – Chicago Bears/Dynasty of Sadness

Had a fast start to his time in the league and managed to be one of the best defensive Bears – a title with much competition. Finished 2nd in CB points for the year. Spectacular arrival.

18. Andre Williams – New York Giants/Dynablaster Bombermen

Adequate.

19. Khalil Mack – Oakland Raiders/Champions of the Sun

Showed enough potential to get Raiders fans very excited. As the team rebuilds, should become the leader on defence and could become something pretty special.

20. Bradley Roby – Denver Broncos/Dynablaster Bombermen

An excellent first season, placing 12th overall in the league for CB points, and behind only Fuller in the rookie positional ratings.

21. Cody Parkey – Philadelphia Eagles/East Flanders Dungeoneers

The first real skill position player to make the list.

Mock Draft 1.0

April 13, 2015

Commish

League Business Mock Draft No Comments

So we’re only 2 weeks and 3 days away from the beginning of the draft. The NFL draft that is. We’re still over 2 months from the DynaBowl draft or, as we like to call it, the main event.

Anyway, given we have no idea where the rookies are going – something that will have a large impact on the desirability of some players, I mean, do you want to draft a Cleveland Brown? – it seems like the ideal time to have some wild stabs in the dark as to who will select which player when.

First up to the plate (nothing like mixing our American sports, it’s Dyna Hard.

FIRST ROUND

1. Dyna Hard – Todd Gurley – RB

The consensus top prospect and Dyna Hard doesn’t buck the trend. Sure, Jamaal Charles and Alfred Morris are already in town, but Charles won’t last forever – rumour has it Hard are willing to trade him and given his cap hit that’s not surprising – and depth at RB is always good. It’s a limited position and Gurley is a great prospect. That said, don’t rule out Hard moving down in the draft to cut a precious few dollars from the rookie cap hit, perhaps storing up picks for 2016.

2. The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness – Melvin Gordon – RB

This was a difficult call. DoS are weak all over the pitch, barring a couple of big stars at WR in Bryant and OBJ. Perhaps the thought will be trying to find a third big star at WR to possibly create the most fearsome receiving corps in the league, but with such little talent at RB, Gordon seems too good an option to pass up. Again, moving back to try and accumulate picks isn’t out of the question if DoS see the right offer coming in.

3. East Flanders Dungeoneers – Kevin White – WR

The Dungeoneers have quietly built an impressive running back stable so would most likely pass on the top two prospects even if one of them fell this low. No, WR is where the need is, a position where ‘underperformance’ was the new ‘performance’ in 2014. White did himself plenty of favours with the watching public at the combine and leapt up plenty of draft boards, and I’m willing to bet that the Dungeoneers’ was one of them.

4. Tamworth Two – Devante Parker – WR

Tamworth may like the idea of jumping up a couple of slots to pick up a RB now that McCoy and Jackson are in the same town, but with Jeffrey, Landry and Wallace as the top 3 WRs, they may fancy staying put and taking their favoured player. If only one WR is off the board, Tamworth should be happy. The conventional move would be to go for Cooper, but he’s been slipping on boards recently and with the DynaBowl being a non-PPR league he loses further shine. Add to that the possibility of Cooper landing in Cleveland and you have a perfect storm for a player dropping like a stone. Parker is a great prospect, don’t get me wrong, and Tamworth will be delighted to get their man.

5. Her Comes The Brees – Leonard Williams – DE

Having sold defensive playmaker Marcell Dareus to move up to this position (along with gaining DeSean Jackson and a swap up in the 4th too), the Brees take Williams who they hope will prove to be a JJ Watt-style outlier. People have called Williams the best player in the draft, but he’s been taking some knocks recently. This is a gamble but if it pays off it could help the Brees back to the Bowl.

6. Dynablaster Bombermen – Amari Cooper – WR

A relative no-brainer for the Bombermen, Cooper is the best prospect left on the board and one the Bombermen will be surprised is still available. Given the depth of young WR talent on the Bombermen roster, this may be a case of reluctantly taking a player though. If Cooper falls this low, don’t be surprised if they try to move down, cashing in the pick to a more WR-needy team.

7. Kelkowski… – Jameis Winston – QB

With only QBs of either questionable health or questionable talent on the books, Kelkowski decide to take a chance on one with questionable character instead. Having missed out on the top tier of talent and with good depth at both RB and WR, they see this as a great spot to lock up a franchise QB who might live through a season without being terrible.

8. Dynasore Losers – Dorial Green-Beckham – WR

This was a tough call. The Losers are a candidate to move up to grab a player of their choice – a RB might be desirable but with AP surely coming back and Matt Forte still going strong, depth at WR seems more important. After Jordy Nelson things are shaky – Peyton fell away and points dried up for Sanders, Gordon may not play again, Torrey Smith is going to try to catch balls from Colin Kaepernick. DGB is a risk but with the right landing spot could turn out to be a beast.

9. Champions of the Sun – Breshad Perriman – WR

On a name basis, this was a candidate for Kelkowski. The fastest WR at the combine has caught the eye of the Champions (not to be confused with the champions, who pick at 10). The Champions will also be tempted by the backs but with McKinnon and Spiller both looking to build in newly won positions or at new teams, the depth should be enough.

10. DynaForOne Firebirds – Dante Fowler – DE

Some people think he’ll go before Williams and could be just as disruptive a defensive player. The Firebirds are stacked at WR and with Lynch and Anderson at RB take the risk at getting a 10-year, top 10 player at his position. Or that’s what they hope. The offence was a beast last year, this pick could give the defense the same kick.

SECOND ROUND

1. Dyna Hard – Danny Shelton – DT

Hard would really like a WR here but the value has gone from that market and having gone RB early they’re not looking to take another. Instead they look to the top tackle in the draft to pair with JJ Watt. If this scenario were to happen, expect the Hards to be very keen to trade back for a WR.

2. DoS – Ameer Abdullah – RB

The Sadness, on the other hand, are happy to take a second RB, bolstering their numbers. It’s a case of BPA from here on in.

3. East Flanders Dungeoneers – Marcus Mariota – QB

The Dungeoneers might be keen to trade up to make sure they get their man, should Winston go as early as projected here. Brees, Foles and Osweiler are not a happy group and Mariota would certainly put a smile on coach Conaghan’s face.

4. Tamworth Two – Jay Ajayi – RB

They got their WR in the first round and they’re happy to pick up a player who many projected to go in the first round here to fill up their RB corps.

5. DoS – Devin Funchess – WR

Having gorged himself on two RBs, GM Geoffrey Manboob has Funchess for dessert, and very happy with his first two rounds he is too.

6. Bombermen – Shane Ray – DE

Having taken a WR they didn’t really need, now they take a defensive end they really could use. Cameron Wake isn’t getting any younger and Mario Williams will be expensive to extend. Ray might soothe the blow.

7. Kelkowski – Vic Beasley – LB

They may have about 15 men on the roster competing for 3 or 4 starting LB spots, but only one, maybe two, are up to Beasley’s standard – if that. Beasley can be a difference maker and sack machine in the right landing spot. Will Kelkowski be that spot?

8. Losers – Tevin Coleman – RB

They got a receiver in the first round so are happy to go the other way and take a back here. Coleman is the best man left on the board. But not for long.

9. Here Comes The Brees – Nelson Agholor – WR

The player I want to call Agbonlahor is the best receiver on the board and the man the Brees were targeting from the beginning. They’ve met with Nelson several times and have been rumoured to have been paying him through his college years. This is a lock, if nothing else on this board is.

10. Bombermen – TJ Yeldon – RB

The Bombermen end up with a receiver, a defender and a back from their first three picks and are pretty happy about it.

The 2023 Dynabowl Draft Exit Survey

Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

DynaHarder

Dynasty of Sadness

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Tamworth Two

Champions of the Sun

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

DynaSore Losers

Here Comes the Brees

DynaForOne Firebirds

Ian Kulkowski’s 2014 Rookie Valuation Rankings

Drafting the 2014 Rookies

Mock Draft 1.0

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