Tag: Pete Conaghan

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two

The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through.  This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.

Reality Bites

Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.

2014 Week 2 2014 Standing 2015 Week 2 POA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 1-1 (137 poa) 7-6 1-1 (181 poa) +44
Here Comes the Brees 1-1 (146 poa) 8-5 0-2 (152 poa) +6
Dynasore Losers 2-0 (175 poa) 8-5 2-0 (172 poa) -3
Kelkowski 2-0 (212 poa) 8-5 0-2 (153 poa) -59
Dynablinker Obamamen 0-2 (168 poa) 7-6 0-2 (156 poa) -12
Champions of the Sun 1-1 (181 poa) 6-7 2-0 (192 poa) +11
Tamworth Two 2-0 (185 poa) 6-7 1-1 (167 poa) -18
East Flanders Dungeoneers 1-1 (161 poa) 5-8 2-0 (158 poa) -3
Dynasty of Sadness 0-2 (129 poa) 5-8 0-2 (154 poa) +25
DynaHarder 0-2 (168 poa) 5-8 2-0 (223 poa) +55

So let’s get the good news out of the way.  DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process.  The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.

The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3rd highest score in week 1.

On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.

What Might Have Been

Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.

  2014 Week 2 2015 Week 2 PPOA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 188 ppoa 228 (79% eff) +40
Here Comes the Brees 210 ppoa 228 (67% eff) +18
Dynasore Losers 212 ppoa 244 (70% eff) +32
Kelkowski 265 ppoa 206 (74% eff) -59
Dynablaster Bombermen 233 ppoa 232 (67% eff) -1
Champions of the Sun 204 ppoa 258 (74% eff) +54
Tamworth Two 261 ppoa 216 (77% eff) -45
East Flanders Dungeoneers 212 ppoa 208 (76% eff) -4
Dynasty of Sadness 206 ppoa 211 (73% eff) +5
DynaHarder 250 ppoa 282 (79% eff) +32

The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.

For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.

Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.

In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.

Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.

Guest Previews 2015 – East Flanders Dungeoneers by Ian Kulkowski

East Flanders Dungeoneers

2014 record

5-8, 4th in Peter.  last in Points for, 9th in Potential Points, last in all play, lost 3 loser ladder rounds to finish last overall.

Firstly, massive Kudos to Pete Conaghan for being willing to take on the total disaster that was the East Flanders franchise.  With Phil’s untimely demise some point before the draft this team was doomed from the start.   Pete has wasted no time in ringing the changes and the current roster bears little resemblance to the one he inherited (particularly on offence with only 9 players surviving from last years roster – including kicker Parkey).

Let’s have a look at how all of these changes have impacted the Dungeoneers prospects for 2015.

Improvement

Pete’s strategy is a long term one, focusing particularly on getting younger on offence.  This is evidenced in the QB position, where the ageing Brees was sacrificed for the longer term potential of Cam Newton.  This move was enhanced with the addition of Tannehil for a few guys picked up off waivers and a back up TE.  This now gives the Dungeoneers a good balance of steady & spectacular at the position.

WR is where the big improvement comes.  The Dungeoneers now boast a receiving corps with an average age of just 24 and stacked with exciting prospects.  With Adams, Allen, Cooper & Marshall the likely starting quartet there’s a chance this could turn out to be one of the best receiving units now, never mind in a few years time.

Regression

All of Conagan’s tinkering has come at a cost.  And that is a big gaping hole at RB that is surely so big it renders any chance of the Dungeoneers competing this year impossible.  Although Pete felt like he had no choice for the long term benefit of he team I find it impossible to justify the trade of Lacy – the team’s one and only stud for the second overall pick.  There is only the slimmest of chances that Lacy delivers less value going forward than White / Cooper and the WR group looks to be strong enough without one of those.

What’s left at RB is a starting pair of Forsett & Blount Hyde and not a great deal in reserve (Hillman, Jennings, Sproles & Woodhead as backup)  This will definitely be Pete’s area of focus with his early picks in next years draft.

Ceiling

WR’s alone will not be enough to carry this team, if Adams makes the most of his opportunity in GB and Allen bounces back to his rookie form then there is potential to break even and finish just outside the playoff positions. The ceiling should get higher in future years as the core Pete has put in place should give solid foundation for years to come.

Floor

There is very little (if any) star quality on the roster at the moment so the floor is a low one.  A repeat of last years showing may well turn out to be a good return if the team doesn’t develop as Pete would hope.  No matter.  This team is it for the long haul.

Prediction

5-8.  A repeat of last years performance with some improving WR’s being offset by a vacuum at RB.  But look out.  If Pete can sort that position out in the next few years this team has the foundation to be a contender.

Guest Previews 2015 – Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules by Pete Conaghan

2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Offseason Review

Like a woolly mammoth trapped in a tar pit, Kelkowski did very little to help their cause in the trade market, adding only two depth signings in Jason Witten and Doug Baldwin. Who knows, if it is the tar pit of the first round of the playoffs, maybe the team is happy with its situation and does not need to move farther. The bones of Andy Dalton look very white against the black, tarry ground.

Which is a roundabout way of asking, have Kelkowski done enough this offseason? In actual fact they may have pulled off the coup of the offseason, snaffling up Sam Bradford’s brittle body and putting it in their quarterback sack. With Bradford looking great in preseason, and as per Chip Kelly, there only being a 10% chance of him snapping something else, it looks like Kelkowski may prosper.

Added to that, the amazing transformation of Blake Bortles from mild-mannered grocery clerk to Superman [ed – Blake Bortles is The Jaguar] over the preseason (don’t laugh), should ensure Kelkowski don’t have to rely on Kaep’s brain or Romo’s back this season. As a bona fide superhero, Bortles should really have a nemesis. It’s a pity Zach Zenner isn’t a defensive end. In which case, the Champions would surely have taken him in the draft.

Kelkowski also had a really good draft, obtaining a three down back in TA Yellow, and what could be the team’s primary WR in Devin Funchess. Randy Gregory and Danny Shelton look to be very good defensive picks.

Where they will improve: All that being said, Kelkowski may not have done enough outside quarterback to see any immediate improvement, but with three top WRs (this includes a certain J. Maclin, who does not care about your fantasy team) they should be just fine.

Where they will regress: Yellow backs up an already-impressive running back corps which has some fragility issues. Foster is out until at least game 4, and DeMarco Murray should have a decreased workload this year, to prevent him being ground into dust, but it’s expected he will continue to run riot in Philadelphia even on reduced carries. Even if those two contribute less, Former Heisman Trophy etc etc is waiting in the wings. But it’s difficult to see the same production this year over the course of the season.

There are some aging pieces on defense, which the team should address.

2015 Prediction: 8-5, playoff final.

Guest Previews 2015 – Champions of the Sun by Pete Conaghan

2014 Record: 6-7, missed playoffs.

Offseason Review

Wily old fox Max Cubberly went in a contrarian direction in the draft, going for defense early and often. You’re not going to win championships by doing the same thing as everyone else, so the Champions took Leonard Williams with the second pick of the third round to get a jump on building their ever-expanding stable of defensive ends. This was followed by another pick in the same round taking the injured Dante Fowler. As eyes narrowed in GM offices around the league, Cubberly told his secretary to immediately instigate a campaign to introduce the generic defensive lineman position, rather than have tackle and end. The work continues.

Marcel Dareus was added in Free Agency, which had DeSean Jackson going the other way, and this was offset by a long brewing trade with Tamworth in which the Champions acquired John Brown, who they hope will be a rising star.

LeGarrette Blount was signed on the eve of the new season, and with the release of Jonas Gray, should provide some semblance of reliable production in New England. A tactical signing, he should be good enough to single handedly win the Gameweek 6 matchup for the Champions, when NE play the Colts.

Where they will improve:  Most position groups did not get significantly better, with the exception of Quarterback. Ben Rothlisberger was scooped up in free agency, and signed to a team-friendly deal.  If he can produce at 2014 levels, and John Brown fulfils expectations,  the team will improve on offense. CJ Spiller’s move to New Orleans has improved the running back group immeasurably, and if he can stay healthy and Latavius Murray produce some measure of success on Oakland’s baseball dirt, then the team can kick on from 2014.

Khalil Mack is expected to make up for lost time, sack wise, and the addition of Dareus gives the Champions a rising number of star names on defense.

Where they will regress:  Will Mike Evans survive a sophomore slump? Will DeAndre Hopkins survive Brian Hoyer? Both receivers have shown they can overcome impossible quarterback odds and be successful, so we should expect that to continue this year.  But if they don’t, then we could see the notably more mercurial Percy Harvin and Allen Robinson coming into play. Which should also be fine, really.

2015 Prediction: 7-6, and missing the playoffs.  If everything goes right for the Champions, they should be a playoff team. However I am arbitrarily deciding that not everything will go right.

 

Guest Previews 2015 – Dynablaster Bombermen by Pete Conaghan

2014 Record: 7-6, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Offseason Review

The Bombermen had a reasonable draft, which was elevated by trading up a spot to nab Melvin Gordon at #5 after Tamworth took Devante Parker and The Brees took Tevin Coleman in a Bortles-esqe pick backed by deep conviction.  But can Gordon produce with a brand new offensive line in SD (one player returning at his position) and a second-year OC pilloried for his lack of imagination?  A hundred draw plays on 2nd and long will tell the story.

Free Agency saw a lot of wheeling and dealing with the view of bolstering attack and defense, the Bombermen committing resources to linebacker and corner in a reversal of the league’s accepted wisdom. Conor Barwin is a 3-down LB who will thrive and contribute even if his sack total may have been an outlier last year. The top fantasy corner in the game, Vontae Davis, will be top five for years to come, maybe.

Putting together potentially three of the best RBBCs in the league was an impressive feat, and hopefully doesn’t lead to angst further down the line. All six RBs are expected to get plenty of touches.

Outgoing trades were mostly fringe players and should not harm the team.

Where they will improve:  The Bombermen will hope that they have the right mixture of youth and experience, welcoming Andre Johnson into the WR corps to help out Anquan Boldin and the younger guys. Depth should not be an issue, with most position groups augmented and steady backups acquired.

Where they will regress:  The team strengthened at almost all positions, so any regression in league position may be linked to other teams becoming stronger more quickly – can the Bombermen keep up with the arms race? The only warning flags that exist are performance related – could the young 2nd and 3rd year running backs regress? They are unproven over time but the team’s depth should be enough to overcome all but a blanket running back failure.

2015 Prediction: First round of playoffs. Bombermen are a solid team, but do they have the star power to break open a playoff game?