… and I’m bringing a message for them…
Congratulations to Ian Kulkowski. A second Dynabowl title, following on from 2016, and WFT assistant running backs coach Jennifer King has something to say…
MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two
The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through. This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.
Reality Bites
Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.
| 2014 Week 2 | 2014 Standing | 2015 Week 2 | POA Diff | |
| Dynaforone Firebirds | 1-1 (137 poa) | 7-6 | 1-1 (181 poa) | +44 |
| Here Comes the Brees | 1-1 (146 poa) | 8-5 | 0-2 (152 poa) | +6 |
| Dynasore Losers | 2-0 (175 poa) | 8-5 | 2-0 (172 poa) | -3 |
| Kelkowski | 2-0 (212 poa) | 8-5 | 0-2 (153 poa) | -59 |
| Dynablinker Obamamen | 0-2 (168 poa) | 7-6 | 0-2 (156 poa) | -12 |
| Champions of the Sun | 1-1 (181 poa) | 6-7 | 2-0 (192 poa) | +11 |
| Tamworth Two | 2-0 (185 poa) | 6-7 | 1-1 (167 poa) | -18 |
| East Flanders Dungeoneers | 1-1 (161 poa) | 5-8 | 2-0 (158 poa) | -3 |
| Dynasty of Sadness | 0-2 (129 poa) | 5-8 | 0-2 (154 poa) | +25 |
| DynaHarder | 0-2 (168 poa) | 5-8 | 2-0 (223 poa) | +55 |
So let’s get the good news out of the way. DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process. The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.
The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3rd highest score in week 1.
On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.
What Might Have Been
Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.
| 2014 Week 2 | 2015 Week 2 | PPOA Diff | |
| Dynaforone Firebirds | 188 ppoa | 228 (79% eff) | +40 |
| Here Comes the Brees | 210 ppoa | 228 (67% eff) | +18 |
| Dynasore Losers | 212 ppoa | 244 (70% eff) | +32 |
| Kelkowski | 265 ppoa | 206 (74% eff) | -59 |
| Dynablaster Bombermen | 233 ppoa | 232 (67% eff) | -1 |
| Champions of the Sun | 204 ppoa | 258 (74% eff) | +54 |
| Tamworth Two | 261 ppoa | 216 (77% eff) | -45 |
| East Flanders Dungeoneers | 212 ppoa | 208 (76% eff) | -4 |
| Dynasty of Sadness | 206 ppoa | 211 (73% eff) | +5 |
| DynaHarder | 250 ppoa | 282 (79% eff) | +32 |
The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.
For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.
Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.
In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.
Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.
Guest Previews 2015 – East Flanders Dungeoneers by Ian Kulkowski
East Flanders Dungeoneers
2014 record
5-8, 4th in Peter. last in Points for, 9th in Potential Points, last in all play, lost 3 loser ladder rounds to finish last overall.
Firstly, massive Kudos to Pete Conaghan for being willing to take on the total disaster that was the East Flanders franchise. With Phil’s untimely demise some point before the draft this team was doomed from the start. Pete has wasted no time in ringing the changes and the current roster bears little resemblance to the one he inherited (particularly on offence with only 9 players surviving from last years roster – including kicker Parkey).
Let’s have a look at how all of these changes have impacted the Dungeoneers prospects for 2015.
Improvement
Pete’s strategy is a long term one, focusing particularly on getting younger on offence. This is evidenced in the QB position, where the ageing Brees was sacrificed for the longer term potential of Cam Newton. This move was enhanced with the addition of Tannehil for a few guys picked up off waivers and a back up TE. This now gives the Dungeoneers a good balance of steady & spectacular at the position.
WR is where the big improvement comes. The Dungeoneers now boast a receiving corps with an average age of just 24 and stacked with exciting prospects. With Adams, Allen, Cooper & Marshall the likely starting quartet there’s a chance this could turn out to be one of the best receiving units now, never mind in a few years time.
Regression
All of Conagan’s tinkering has come at a cost. And that is a big gaping hole at RB that is surely so big it renders any chance of the Dungeoneers competing this year impossible. Although Pete felt like he had no choice for the long term benefit of he team I find it impossible to justify the trade of Lacy – the team’s one and only stud for the second overall pick. There is only the slimmest of chances that Lacy delivers less value going forward than White / Cooper and the WR group looks to be strong enough without one of those.
What’s left at RB is a starting pair of Forsett & Blount Hyde and not a great deal in reserve (Hillman, Jennings, Sproles & Woodhead as backup) This will definitely be Pete’s area of focus with his early picks in next years draft.
Ceiling
WR’s alone will not be enough to carry this team, if Adams makes the most of his opportunity in GB and Allen bounces back to his rookie form then there is potential to break even and finish just outside the playoff positions. The ceiling should get higher in future years as the core Pete has put in place should give solid foundation for years to come.
Floor
There is very little (if any) star quality on the roster at the moment so the floor is a low one. A repeat of last years showing may well turn out to be a good return if the team doesn’t develop as Pete would hope. No matter. This team is it for the long haul.
Prediction
5-8. A repeat of last years performance with some improving WR’s being offset by a vacuum at RB. But look out. If Pete can sort that position out in the next few years this team has the foundation to be a contender.
Guest Previews 2015 – Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules by Pete Conaghan
2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs
Offseason Review
Like a woolly mammoth trapped in a tar pit, Kelkowski did very little to help their cause in the trade market, adding only two depth signings in Jason Witten and Doug Baldwin. Who knows, if it is the tar pit of the first round of the playoffs, maybe the team is happy with its situation and does not need to move farther. The bones of Andy Dalton look very white against the black, tarry ground.
Which is a roundabout way of asking, have Kelkowski done enough this offseason? In actual fact they may have pulled off the coup of the offseason, snaffling up Sam Bradford’s brittle body and putting it in their quarterback sack. With Bradford looking great in preseason, and as per Chip Kelly, there only being a 10% chance of him snapping something else, it looks like Kelkowski may prosper.
Added to that, the amazing transformation of Blake Bortles from mild-mannered grocery clerk to Superman [ed – Blake Bortles is The Jaguar] over the preseason (don’t laugh), should ensure Kelkowski don’t have to rely on Kaep’s brain or Romo’s back this season. As a bona fide superhero, Bortles should really have a nemesis. It’s a pity Zach Zenner isn’t a defensive end. In which case, the Champions would surely have taken him in the draft.
Kelkowski also had a really good draft, obtaining a three down back in TA Yellow, and what could be the team’s primary WR in Devin Funchess. Randy Gregory and Danny Shelton look to be very good defensive picks.
Where they will improve: All that being said, Kelkowski may not have done enough outside quarterback to see any immediate improvement, but with three top WRs (this includes a certain J. Maclin, who does not care about your fantasy team) they should be just fine.
Where they will regress: Yellow backs up an already-impressive running back corps which has some fragility issues. Foster is out until at least game 4, and DeMarco Murray should have a decreased workload this year, to prevent him being ground into dust, but it’s expected he will continue to run riot in Philadelphia even on reduced carries. Even if those two contribute less, Former Heisman Trophy etc etc is waiting in the wings. But it’s difficult to see the same production this year over the course of the season.
There are some aging pieces on defense, which the team should address.
2015 Prediction: 8-5, playoff final.
Guest Previews 2015: Dynasore Losers by Ian Kulkowski
Welcome to a series of GM-led previews of the various teams of the Dynabowl Fantasy Football League. The opening preview is of the Dynasore Losers, GMed by David Slater and is brought to you by the letters K, U, L, K again, O, S, K for a third time and I.
Dynasore Losers
2014 record
8-5, 1st in Peter. 2nd in Points for, 2nd in Potential Points, 2nd in All play, semi final losers, 3rd place
“Everyone else’s team sucks” & “My way is definitely best” is what Slatz would almost certainly say if he were to write his own preview. Unfortunately looking through the train wreck that is their old, broken roster I can see nothing but pain and heartache ahead for the Losers this season.
But first, let’s try and focus on the positive a bit and see where the Losers have improved from last year…
Improvement
2 words. AP. That’s it. Without the child beating former superstar’s return to the game, this roster would be as dead as the majority of Josh Gordon’s brain cells. Will the return of not-human Peterson be enough to give this team a chance of repeating last year’s success? Whilst Peterson is capable of putting up some ridiculous numbers, even he will probably not be enough to carry this roster back to the playoffs.
Oh the other area of improvement for the Losers is kicker & punter (as described in great detail in the Commissioner’s preview). But so what? They’re kickers & punters.
Regression
Where to begin. Slatz built his roster around a solid aged core with the aforementioned Peterson and QB Peter Manning as lynchpins to the roster. After failing spectacularly during the final 5 weeks of last season there are now serious questions over Peter’s position as stud QB. With Manning potentially dropping down (and maybe out of) the top 10 QBs, this takes the Losers from a position of strength to bunch of middling options.
The addition of Winston (who definitely hasn’t sexually assualted anyone) to accompany Raiders sophomore Carr should provide a good future at the position, but it is likely too early for either of these to help the team too much this year.
There is a similar story at RB. Last years’ star performer (4th ranked overall RB) Forte will turn 30 during the season and is surely hitting the decline phase of his career. Depth at the position is also an issue with the loss of Stewart & Robinson in free agency. There are only 2 NFL starters amongst the RB corps so this is definitely a position which will cause GM Slatz some headaches as the season wears on.
More trouble at WR as the team has lost it’s anchor (and 2nd ranked WR last year) in Jordy Nelson. With Josh Gordon never likely to return the Losers are left with Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith & Larry Fitzgerald as their probable starting WR’s. Hardly the most fearsome foursome. TE also sees a potential downgrade with Graham’s move to Seattle.
On the defensive side of the ball, injuries, free agency and early retirement have left holes in the Losers roster. There are still good starters at most positions but the depth is now near non existent.
Ceiling
If Peter returns to his record breaking best, Adrian has a career year and the Losers find some receivers from somewhere then maybe all is not lost and this team has an outside shot of making the playoffs.
Then again, maybe not!
Floor
The floor’s (thankfully) the limit for the losers this year. If things don’t go their way then avoiding the prized first pick in the 2016 draft could be deemed a success.
Prediction
5-8. A complete reversal of last year and barring some miracle this losers franchise is going nowhere fast. GM Slatz has a big decision on his hands. Does he stick with the plan and try to compete as best he can, or does he sell the family silver and go into full blown rebuild mode.