Tag: Entrance Survey

The draft entrance survey makes an eagerly awaited, and mildly abridged, return for 2024. I asked all the GMs a few questions about the upcoming draft and, of those who bothered to answer, all but one trusted me not to look at those answers. However, the delay in getting this up and out to you all is only partially down the need to track down the elusive password.

First up, for the third time in a row, it’s the ‘Predict the First Round’ round, with 5 points for an exact match, 3 for a close(ish) match and a single point if the player at least went in the first round, but you weren’t that close. Kelkowski comes into the 2024 on the back of winning in 2022 and jointly winning in 2023. Will they make it a three-peat? There are two other pertinent records – only once before has someone got all ten players that were taken in the first round right, and the most points anyone has got is 33, by Kelkowski in 2022. Will those come into play, or does Checkhov’s meaningless draft survey gun mean nothing to me? Read on…

There we have it. Perhaps a measure of how locked in this draft was, with some clear talent at the top and then a whole load of shit no one wanted later on. Three GMs beat the old record, while the Bombermen named all 10 players to go in the first round. But our 2024 draft prediction champ is Chris of the Hard, narrowly pipping perennial draft prognosticator Ian, of Kelkowksi fame.

A handful of minor observations – Tamworth having 2 QBs in the first round, which I don’t think has ever happened; Losers had Corum as the first RB going, when he was actually the third at slot 2.05; everyone nailed the first overall pick, which weasn’t difficult, and all but one Nabers and Odunze in either second or third, with the Brees thinking Worthy would make it to third on the back of being drafted by the Chiefs; the Hurricanes were the only team to think a defensive player was going in the first round, and they doubled down on that; and finally, TT thought Troy Franklin was going 5th to the Brees, when actually he went 28th to Kelkowski. Would love to know where that came from.

2) If everything breaks right for you, who would you come away with with each of your first 5 picks? Be realistic, no picking the top 5 players in the draft.

Last year there was plenty of delusion – from the Bombermen thinking Anthony Richardson might fall to the top of the fifth round (actually 1.07), to other people thinking players would fall later in the draft too (but none were quite as optimistic as the Bombermen). Let’s see if anyone was more realistic this time?

Starting with the Tamworth Two…

Pretty reasonable, really. Except failing to nominate players for the later picks. And even managed to get Javon Baker a round later than hoped for. Not massively far out on the top two wide receivers – the exercise is about ‘if everything breaks right for you’ after all, rather than being 100% realistic.

Right, onto the Losers…

Again, a pretty reasonable set of hopes there – maybe even pessimistic given some of the desired players didn’t go until later. The Losers gave up Brandin Cooks to the Dungeoneers in order to take Kneeland at 5.01, but obviously that slot wasn’t on the prediction list.

Someone who definitely wasn’t pessimistic in their approach to this exercise was Neil of the Hurricanes. It’s possible to argue he was a little too optimistic, mind you.

I mean, there’s ‘everything breaking right for you’ and a near universal top 3 pick falling to 6th, the consensus top running back falling to the middle of the second, and possibly the two most desirable defensive players falling to the third and fourth rounds. But hey, we can all dream, I suppose.

Falling somewhere in between reasonable and in-what-world-was-that-going-to-happen is the Hard.

It might be interesting in the locker room for Odunze to find out Nabers was the desired pick, but calling the Bowers trade and pick was good. The delusion comes in when we look at that last pick – Byron Murphy. He turned out to be the first defensive player taken as 2.01 and I struggle to imagine a world where he made it out of round 2, let alone the end of the fourth.

The Brees! They clearly didn’t really know what they wanted beyond the first round, where they were just pipped…

Disappointing lack of thought when it came to the later picks, and disappointing they didn’t leap on Corley in the third, for reasons we’ll come to, when we talk about the Bombermen. But that will have to wait.

Why? Because now it’s time for the Bombermen.

Three of the four picks they missed out on were players taken only a few picks earlier, perhaps most notably Edgerin Cooper, being sniped at 3.05. Marshawn Lloyd is the only stretch there. In a better draft class for RBs I could see him falling further, but it was rather a weak one so it’s understandable he went where he did.

Finally it’s Kelkowski, who were probably just as frustrated as the Bombermen with the amount of sniping that went on…

Missed out on two players by one slot, though it’s possible they got the better fantasy QB in Daniels than the man they’d hoped for at 2.08.

Q3-5) Stuff ’bout tradin’, innit.

It’s at this point that we bid a fond farewell to Kelkowski, who declined to answer any further questions.

What we wanted to know was how many trades would take place, which pick would be the earliest traded, and any other comments. So here we go:

Very optimistic that there would be 10 trades. As it turned out, there were but 4. Chris was, perhaps unsurprisingly, most accurate in which pick would be the first to go, given he traded for 1.04 using 1.10. The Hurricanes got the number of trades right, while the Bombermen were kind of vaguely vindicated with the comments.

Q6) Which position are you most keen to pick up to be a contributor for this season?

Looks like the Losers and Tamworth did the best at fulfilling what they were hoping for, with everyone else getting a bit of it but perhaps not being fully satisfied with the hauls.

Q7) Which player are you most keen to get/most likely to reach for?

It’s not often I am filled with utter contempt for my fellow GMs – once or twice a week max (not Max), during the offseason is all, but I have been seething since I read some of these responses.

This question, on the questionnaire, has the following small print (now appearing as big print):

This is about the player your most likely to take too early just in case someone else gets in there before you. You shouldn’t name anyone you think will go in the first 2 rounds.

THE ONLY POSSIBLE WAY ODUNZE COULD REMOTELY HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED A REACH IS IF HE WENT 1 OVERALL, AND EVEN THEN THERE WOULD BE WAYS TO JUSTIFY IT.

I suppose another way might have been to spend a shit load of picks to move up and get him, but then that’s an overpay, not a reach. Ben, Stew and Neil need to look at the other players named, read that small print, and think long and hard about what they’ve done wrong.

Q8) Who will be the first QB taken, and with which pick?

Possibly the most boring question (hotly contested title) with the Bombermen and Brees being equally close and the Hurricanes being way off.

I’ve said Williams at 1.09 above, but I would not be surprised if Daniels was the one to go because of the running threat. I also don’t feel great about him going in the first round. I feel like I’m out of step with the league’s ratings of QBs. I don’t think there’s great value in taking one in the first, but it feels like someone always goes earlier than I expect.
Bombermen GM, Benjamin Hendy

Q9) Who will be the first defensive player taken and when will they go?

No one got the player, but no one was that far out slot-wise…

Probably Laiatu Latu, on the basis of him being the first defensive player taken in the actual draft. Probably 2.04?
Hard GM, Chris Braithwaite

Laiatu Latu – we quite often follow NFL draft order and he was the first one off the board landing in a spot where he’ll be able to rush the passer as a primary threat. Late in the second, I was going to say 19th, but that’s my pick and I won’t be taking him, so 18th.
Losers GM, David Slater

Q10-12) Winners, Losers and Self-Assessment

Some comments on winners:

Probably Adam, on the basis of having the #1 pick – Chris, Hard GM

Either Chris or Adam – two top 10 picks for Chris will give him a good chance to land two guys, and if Adam gets a good player who’s fallen at 11 (e.g. Jonathon Brooks) that’ll be a great looking opening – Dave, Losers GM

Adam makes a spectacular entrance by winning the draft, basically because he got Harrison jnr – Ben, Bombermen GM

Comments on losers (not Losers):

Goody. He doesn’t have a 1st round pick, has lots of holes and a tendency to reach – Chris, Hard GM

TT because they don’t have a first round pick and some of you don’t get that you should judge a team’s draft based on the capital they had coming in – Ben, Bombermen GM

And some self-assessment comments:

Near the bottom – always do due to fewer picks – James, Tamworth GM

Probably about 4th, unless I can swing a trade to get 2 of the top 4 – Chris, Hard GM

I’ve got the 9th pick, so I’m fighting an uphill battle – Slatz, Losers GM

Solidly mid-table – Ben, Bombermen GM

Q13) How long will the draft last?

The only question that matters, and it was closely fought this year with two GMs just 5 seconds apart, while the Bombermen did their best to elongate the draft as much as possible to almost twice as long as they had predicted.

So the Hard were closest by those extra five seconds.

It did not go unnoticed that the two closest guesses were basically 876 and 8765.

So there we have it. The entrance survey is over, and with no comments expressing frustration with any of the questions or the overall duration. Which was a pleasant surprise.

The 2023 Dynabowl Draft Entrance Survey

June 18, 2023

Commish

Rookie Draft No Comments

Before this year’s draft I sent each GM 20 very sensible questions about the upcoming draft, and some of them bothered to answer some or all of the 21 questions.

First up is the now traditional (2 years is a tradition, right) request to predict the first 10 picks of the draft, with points awarded for the accuracy. Let’s see how we all got on?

So it’s a tie at the top between last year’s top 2, but Kelkowski claim the 2023 crown on the unannounced tiebreaker of most spot on guesses, making it back to back triumphs. Can they replicate their success here in the real league?

Lots of votes for Dalton Kincaid in the first round, who eventually fell to 2.04. The other swings and misses: Achane – 2.01; Miller – 2.02; Johnson – 2.03; Campbell – 2.05; Young – 2.10; Wilson – 3.01; and finally Tajae Spears went at 3.07 to Tamworth – a steal in the opinion of Chris.

2. If everything breaks right for you, who would you come away with with each of your first 5 picks? Be realistic, no picking the top 5 players in the draft.

A new addition for this year, and some interesting insight into what GMs think they need, and what they think of other people’s valuations.

We’ll start with The Sadness. They got 1 of their 5 targets, though could have had two of them. Perhaps got a little optimistic with the hopes of getting Rashee Rice in the 4th, but then maybe they prefer Tillman and never thought he could remotely get that far. As for Kayshon Boutte, they passed him over not once, not twice, not thrice, but… oh, wait, it was thrice.

The Losers didn’t quite follow the spirit of the question and nominated several players at most slots and, in doing so, managed to secure 3 of the players they hoped for. Got very hopeful on the quarterbacks though…

The Hurricanes are a little complicated, what with the trading and all. Not only that, they grabbed a player early they were hoping to get much later. Missing out on Bryce Young by a pick must be galling though.

The Hard draft is quite different from the hopes and dreams GM Chris had ahead of the big day(s), but then having traded up for Bijan Robinson, he could have used the rest of his picks on Dynabowl GMs and still been happy. They clearly wanted Downs as, having traded away the pick they’d hoped to use, they picked him up a round earlier.

Reigning champions the Brees were still drunk, and got progressively drunker, as they wrote their hopes and dreams, missing out by 3, then 7, then 14, and finally by 33 picks. Luke Musgrave was the man snatched away at the last moment there… Meanwhile, they passed over Zach Harrison not once, not thrice, but twice.

Speaking of deluded, the Bombermen thought they could grab Anthony Richardson in the fifth round and were also suckered in by the promise of Luke Musgrave in the fourth. But grabbing two of their first three hopes is the good news, though Miller was sniped. Some insider info, their GM says that literally any of the 4 RBs in that tier would have been good and the order of them hadn’t been set when the survey was completed.

Finally, we have Kelkowski, who got three of their targets, one with a theoretical reach, and wasn’t disastrously out for the other two. You could argue Miller was a bit optimistic, I suppose, but all in all a good haul based on the pre-draft desires.

Questions 3-7. How many trades will there be during the draft? Do you want to trade? Which pick will be the first traded? What will it be traded for? And who will be involved in it?

The real answer was an astonishingly low 2 picks, perhaps showing that interest in the league is drying up and we should all go home, just as soon as I have won a second title. I mean, I’ll be honest, if you all quit, as it seems many of you want to, I’ll just GM the vacant teams myself until I get that second win.

Anyway, where was I? Oh yes, two trades. Two! Did anyone see that coming? Well… no. Although there was this from the Bombermen…

Last year my research told me that there were around 6 each of the last few years, and last year there were exactly 6. Based on that, I’m going to go for… 5. I don’t think there are a lot of players people are jostling for position for so people will end up just taking their picks. I guess maybe people will sell picks for players?

So, overall, this what we all said:

Shockingly, the only person who foresaw the trade for the number 1 pick coming was one of the two teams involved, Chris and the Hard. No one else saw Neil as being involved, though quite a few fingered Chris as a wheeler dealer.

Was there anything else insightful to be found? No, obviously not. I mean, it’s stretching things to say any of this nonsense is insightful if we’re being honest, but here are some choice highlights.

I don’t think [Chris] really needs those 2 first so will look to move back.
Kelkowski

I would like to trade up to #1 for Bijan. Neil isn’t returning my calls though. I doubt I’ll have two guys I love at 1.06/7, so would be happy to trade one of those picks for a vet or move down and get a few mid round picks to stock up on a shit load of TEs
Dyna Hard

Things got a little confusing with the answers from the Losers. Which pick will be the first traded?

I can see all of 3-8 being available, but I don’t know who’s moving up for them, so I’d probably say somewhere in the early to late 2^nd. I could see maybe 1.10/2.01 – there’s been a few trades in that region historically.

But then, who will be involved in the first trade?

If the top two picks don’t move (and I don’t think they will), and picks 3-8 are untradeable, then that leaves… 1.10 and 2.01 as potential breakpoints for the 2^nd tier of RBs, I could see a move there, but the price is probably a bit steep. So, I’ll say mid to late 2^nd, about 2.04 to 2.06.

You can see why the table above is a bit unclear.

Then we come to the Hurricanes responses, which contradict each other and the reality of what he actually did during the draft (though of course it’s possible to change your mind between answering and trading). The ‘Canes said that the Bombermen’s 1.03 would be the first pick to be traded, and that Chris and Max would be involved in the trade. Maybe they were hinting at an unprecedented three-way trade?

Still, we’ll leave the last word to the always chipper Losers, in response to the number of trades question…

I still don’t see the point of this question though, we’re just picking a number out of the air and it’s not a meaningful thing to guess.

Let’s be honest, there’s no meaning to any of this, but it is still possible to offer something hinting at use, as the Bombermen showed above.

Back to whether the individuals wanted to trade at all…

I’d like Anthony Richardson or a top TE and I don’t really see them lasting beyond the middle of the third, so if I can do a deal at a good price, I could look to move up there
Losers

I’ve not had many early picks in recent years so I keen to keep them this year. Having said that if the right offer presents itself to help me this year then I’ll listen. Depending on how it goes I may look to get extra picks in the 2^nd / 3^rd rounds
Kelkowski

Yes, move down from 1.10 to pick up more picks in rounds 2 and 3 to take some more RB prospects
Brees

I wouldn’t mind trading up a few picks from 2.03 to try to get Kendre Miller.
Bombermen

And finally the Hurricanes chime in with this gem:

Will trade down for a combination of

Yes, that’s the full quote. Anyway, onwards…

The positions people wanted to find a 2023 contributor for:

So everyone’s a winner, baby.

Running backs. And a lot of them. Because, as we know, successful running backs can come out of nowhere.
Bombermen

Does 3 count as a lot?

For this season RB, but for dynasty purposes it’s TEs. This class looks absolutely stocked with them.
Hard

‘Hard’ agree from me. During the draft, when the Hard took both Musgrave and Washington, a leak in the Bombermen front office has confirmed they were next on the draft board. Although an important caveat to that is that the source does not recall if that’s actually accurate, or mere flattery being sent to the Hard.

Meanwhile…

All of them.
Kelkowski

They didn’t make the table above as what’s the point (beyond what’s the point of any of this)? Anyway, they failed to take a QB, punter, kicker or safety, so mission failed.

Onwards!

9-11. The reaches! Who are you most likely to reach for? Who will make the consensus biggest reach? Who will be reached for?

So two sets of cop-out comments were given here. Let’s see what you all had to say:

How are you most likely to reach for?

I don’t know if there is anyone specifically. Kendre Miller, but then it won’t be a reach (I’m not taking him at 3). I guess I’d like, assuming Miller is gone, Achane going at 13 maybe seen as a reach by some. But then he may not make it that far.
Bombermen

So nominating two players that they’d only take if they got through to them at the right kind of place based on ADP. Thanks for that. (TBF, some online rankings had Achane down in the 20s so it was feasible someone might see 13 as a reach)

I don’t think there’s anyone worth reaching for in this class, I’m happy to just see what falls to me. But if I feel like one of the big TEs or Richardson has slipped a few places past where I have them ranked, then I might well make a move to get them.
Losers

So I’d reach for a player if they feel to the point that they were now a bargain rather than a reach. Thanks. For. That. As. Well.

Who will make the biggest reach?

Based on my top 10, either Kendre Miller or Roschon Johnson. The problem is there’s no reaches in this class. I can’t see the top 6 not being fixed (the order might be different, but the first six players should be the first six players), and after that it’s hard to really identify who’s next, or argue for one player or another as clearly better / worse.
Losers

I mean, it’s accurate analysis of the available players in the draft, but in no way does it answer the question or spice up any inter-team rivalries.

And then comments on all the questions from one team:

I think I am a lot higher than other people on Josh Downs and Tank Dell. I’d be ok with taking Downs in the early 2^nd and Dell in the 3^rd. Both are tiny but both are so good. I have a thing for small WRs apparently.

Neil [will make the consensus biggest reach]. He usually takes a cornerback or safety earlier than expected.

Tough to say [who will be reached for] because ECR looks a bit barmy for some players. Mingo at 13? Richardson at 5? I could see someone taking Will Anderson in the first which I’d see as a reach. But against ADP/ECR, maybe Jayden Reed?
Hard

Thanks for playing the game.

Onto Bargains…

12-13. Who will get the biggest bargain, and who will fall far enough to seem like a bargain?

We’ll have to see what the exit surveys say, but as a warm up, LaPorta went at 3.10 to the Champions, Levis went at 7.09 to the Losers, Young went at 2.10 to the Brees and absolutely will not be seen as a bargain, no matter how much they want us to think he was, and Tillman went at 4.04 to the Sadness and could be seen as one, while Downs went at 2.06 and definitely won’t be.

14. Three QBs went in the first 4 picks of the NFL draft. What order will they go in in the Dyanbowl draft?

Everyone got the order right. Well done, every one. Give yourselves a Malteser. However, the predictions were all over the place. Kudos to Neil, who is a Dynabowl QB drafting savant, nailing 2 of the picks and only being a handful of picks out on the third:

And Kelkowksi manage to save the Bombermen’s blushes with some spectacularly wrong answers.

DE-FENCE! DE-FENCE! DE-FENCE!

15-17. When will the first defensive player go, who will it be and who will take the most defensive players?

Consensus!!

Everyone nailed that Will Anderson would be first, and three people nailed the pick down to 1.08.

The Losers added some useful (genuinely) commentary:

1.08-1.09. I think I might get gazumped, but I’m almost certainly taken Jalen Carter if he’s there. So 1.09 is the absolute floor. But I could certainly see Ian taking either Carter or Will Anderson. Chris doesn’t take defenders that high.

As for number of defensive players:

The most were taken by Tamworth and the Sadness, but Tamworth edge it on percentage. Congratulations to nobody.

18-20. Winners and Losers

Some cognitive dissonance for the Hurricanes who think that the Champions will be judged as the worst team, but also that they, themselves, will be ranked last. No one wanting to put themselves forward as the top pick. And a few comments on this subject too:

[On the draft winner] This is always a bad question on the exit survey because it’s often the person with the most capital. We don’t tend (as a group) to stray too far from consensus rankings, so the person with the most and highest picks get what people think is the best haul, and we don’t tend to evaluate against expectations either. I’ll say Chris, as he has 2 1^st and 2 2^nd rounders, but Pete might be right there with a top 2 pick in every round.

[And loser] Tamworth? No picks in the first two rounds.
Losers

[Winners] The Champions. It’s always Max. Lack of research is your friend. Or rather, his.

[Losers] The Sadness. Because they have to be sad.

[Self] 7^th. I don’t get the respect I deserve.

Bombermen

[Winner] Neil, on the basis he’s almost certainly getting Bijan.

[Loser] Goody, mainly because he has no picks in the 1^st two rounds and that’s always tough to recover from.
Hard

21. How long will the draft last?

It’s the only question, out of all of this, that really matters. You’ve waded through all the shit above and finally reached the pinnacle. So what were the results?

I know a lot of you put a lot of time and effort into calculating this figure, trying to get as close as humanly possible, and that work has been well rewarded for the Hard and the Sadness, both within 24 hours of the actual time. Bravo!

I’ll give the last word to the Losers:

Too long and not long enough.

This is an aside, like the number of trades question. I don’t get the point of this, it’s just a guess. We’ve all got better things to do than fill in a survey for fun, so cut out some of the fat? Get it down to a quicker 10 questions – I’ve highlighted the ones I’d keep, with or without tweaks.

The Dynabowl 2022 Draft Entrance Survey

June 26, 2022

Commish

Rookie Draft Uncategorized No Comments

Well, the 2022 Dynabowl Draft is in the books. Before it all went down, I asked the GMs to make some predictions about what might happen, and these are the results.

First up, I asked GMs to predict the first round. Some people had an advantage, as they were picking in the first round, sometimes more than once. It certainly made things easier for the Sadness, given their surprise pick of Quay Walker at 10, while the Hurricanes predicted 4 defensive players to go in the first round, which would have been a record, but failed to spot that Walker was the one who would actually. They also incorrectly predicted a trade for pick 8, but failed to nominate who the player taken there would be.

Here’s the full table, along with a score for how accurate people were at guessing. I put my inaccuracy down to not researching the round as I wasn’t going to pick there.

Fashionably late, I received the entrance survey from the Losers shortly after publication and can now add their predictions here, predictions which netted 30 points, leaving Kelkowski as the king predictors:

And after that, let us all salute The Champions for their predictions:

2. How many trades will there be during the draft?

The correct answer was 6. If you’d done your research you could have guessed it would be in this neighbourhood because a glimpse into the past shows that since 2018 there’s been 6, 6, 5 and 4 trades (though 2018 had two trades mid-draft for 2019 picks. However, going back further in time we see that 2017 had 13 trades, 2016 had 10 and 2015 – the first draft in the books, had a whopping 15 trades in during the draft. Insanity. There were only 7 rounds for each of those drafts too…

So what did we say? Well, living in the past we had the Sadness, who went for an astonishing 14 (!!!), while Hard and the Hurricanes both said 10. Some more sensible guesses were had from Tamworth (8), Kelkowski (7), Champions (7), and the Bombermen (8, though admitting “I am literally plucking a number out of the air there”), while the Brees (2) really low-balled it.

Late comer Losers topped everyone, suggesting a total of 15 trades, commenting “Stupid fucking question”, which I assume means that the answer was so obvious why even bother asking.

And at this point I would note that the commentary was pretty scant from most respondents so if this is a bit dry, you know who to blame. (Yourself and everyone but me).

3. Which pick will be the first pick traded?

The correct answer was 2.07, it belonged to the Bombermen, until it was sold to the Tamworth Two. But did anyone get it right?

We already know the Hurricanes guessed that 1.08 would be traded away.

Tamworth went for 2.04, perhaps indicating a desire to get up even higher than they managed.

Kelkwoski plumped for Chris selling 1.09, along the same lines as the Hurricanes guess.

The Bombermen stated “I think Chris will trade one of his first round picks. While I don’t really think that Dave will trade up, but he could be convinced because I fancy he wants Skyy Moore. But I don’t know, really.” So there definitely was something in the air about Chris making a move, and Moore did, indeed, go at 9 so if he had been sought after you’d have needed to make this leap.

The Brees thought pick 1.04 would have a buyer – a pick which the Champions spent on Treylon Burks.

The Sadness matched Tamworth in plumping for 2.04 while the Hard plumped for 1.06 and the Champions went high, suggesting 1.02 would be on the move.

The Losers were non-committal – “This is more a question of buyer than seller. I’d move 3, but I don’t think I’ll find a buyer”

That meant three people thought Chris was trading, 3 thought Max was, one vote for the Brees and one for the Sadness.

4. Will the first pick traded be for a player (or players), picks, or a combination?

The first trade that happened was 2.07 & 5.07 for 3.08, 4.08 and 4.09, so all picks.

The Brees, Hard and Champions (and the late-comer Losers) said it would be solely for picks, though the Sadness appears to have suggested 2.04 would be sold for 3.05 straight up. Everyone else said a player+pick deal which, based on history, was probably the right guess.

5. Who will be involved in the first trade?

The correct answer was Bombermen and Tamworth, which no one got right. Probably not a surprise.

We had a Hard/Brees trade (Hurricanes and Hard – though the Hard said that he could alternatively trade with the Hurricanes of Champions, so he was sold on himself trading, just like everyone else), Dungeoneers/Champions (Tamworth), Hard and apparently no one else (Kelkwoski), “I already said – Slatz and Chris. Definitely Chris. No real idea about Slatz. Maybe Ian?” (Bombermen), Champions/Hard (Brees), Sadness/Hurricanes (Champions) and Champions/Tamworth (Sadness). Oh, and “Chris” (Losers).

So out of all that there was one half of the trade was guessed correctly, once.

6. Which position are you most keen to pick up to be a contributor for this season?

The Hurricanes wanted a RB and got James Cook. He shoots, he scores.

Tamworth also wanted an RB, but didn’t have a pick until the third round. They traded up for Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier in the second, and also picked up a “Treston Ebner”, whatever that is, in the 11th round. Mission accomplished perhaps as well as could be expected given the capital available at the start of the draft.

Kelkowski wanted a DT to contribute this season, which was probably a tough ask regardless. Even tougher when they don’t end up picking one the whole draft.

The Bombermen said “Running Back. It’s the position most likely to have an impact in the first season.” But they only took one in the 7th (Jerome Ford) and 9th (Jashaun Corbin), so that’s unlikely to have much impact. But the options were a bit thin on the ground this year.

The Brees wanted a wide receiver and got three of them – Garrett Wilson (1st), Alec Pierce (3rd) and Velus Jones (11th). Jones, in particular is a bit of a steal there given the opportunity in Chicago.

The Sadness wanted a linebacker and snaffled up Quay Walker in the first round along with Devin Lloyd in the 2nd and Damone Clark in the 11th. Got that one pretty well covered. Now to see if they contribute first up.

The Champions were after a wide receiver (“Shame about the players”) and came away with 5 of them – their top three picks – Burks (1.04), Williams (1.07) and Pickens (2.04), as well as guys in the 9th and 11th who you’ve never heard of and never will again.

The Hard took this question seriously and responded “I think it’s a really good and deep WR class, so will be upset if I don’t come away with 2 good WRs from the 1^st 3 rounds. I generally really like the talent in rounds 3-4. It feels like a draft lacking that top end talent (round 2 is a wasteland) but with great depth.” And on the back of that he has Olave and Moore (1.08 and 1.09) as well as Wan’Dale Robinson in the third. All in all, a good day at the office.

The Losers wanted an RB, and fulfilled that to some degree by taking one in the 7th, the 8th and 11th. It’s possible none of those players take any meaningful snaps.

7. Which player are you most keen to get/most likely to reach for?

I think most people took this as the player they most wanted, whereas I was hoping for the player who appealed to the GM more than the consensus, so they might get jittery and take early – ie I basically wanted to know who you would reach for. I’ll reword it next time.

This became obvious from the first answer I looked at, the Hurricanes proclaiming they were most keen to get Breece Hall, the consensus number 1 overall pick. Not really possible to reach for him, is it?

Tamworth were only mildly closer to the question I really wanted to ask, suggesting James Cook “but he will go too early”. Yes he will. He’ll go fifth when your first pick coming into the draft wasn’t until the third round.

A more sensible response came from Kelkowski: “Given my first pick is at 20, I’m hoping Spiller falls to me there”. Given they traded away pick number 20, they can be very pleased at nabbing Spiller at 3.10, thirtieth overall.

The Bombermen can be equally happy, stating “Doubs, the Green Bay wide receiver. But I’m not so excited that I’ll be grabbing him in the 2nd or anything.” Instead it was 4.08, 38th overall, that they picked up Doubs, right about where he should have been going.

The Brees went for Chris Olave who, unless they traded up to the top two, probably couldn’t have been considered a reach, but if he was the player the most wanted, they had the chance at 6 and declined the option.

The Sadness offered a window into their world by responding ‘Dunno’, which is either the least helpful response possible, or the name of a player so under the radar it could have succeeded in a mission against a nondescript enemy in Top Gun: Maverick.

The Hard said “Rachaad White. Great upside, plus he covers me for Fournette. I’d prefer to take him at about pick 15, but if I can’t get a better option I’m happy with him at #9.” and promptly took him at 18, so all in all, very happy with his work.

The Losers managed to fall on both sides of the coin, with the obvious desire and the one more in keeping with the aim of the question. He didn’t get either player though: “Well, Breece Hall would be nice. But failing him, I like Rachaad White as a good size-speed guy with pass catching skills in a good situation.”

And finally the Champions sums up what everyone is really thinking: “Whichever one Slatz tells me afterwards was my stupidest pick/biggest reach.”

8. Who will make the consensus biggest reach (Draft Exit Survey will be the judge)?

Hurricanes says Hard

Tamworth says Dungeoneers

Kelkowski says Tamworth

Bombermen says (incorrectly) “Everyone will say me. It won’t be me. I swear it. I’ll say…. (pulls name out of hat)… [Tamworth]. No, wait, it’ll be [the Hurricanes]. I won’t spoil the answers that are coming up by saying who….”

Brees appears to think that James Cook was also taking part in the draft and would make the biggest reach… Presumably this mean that he would be the biggest reach (not the question asked), but maybe the post-draft survey will confirm this as correct, seeing as he went fifth overall to the Hurricanes.

Hard says Hurricanes, in a nice bout of symmetry.

The Losers were perhaps a little down on themselves, stating the person most likely to make the consensus reach will be “Me – a lot will depend on if I can swing a deal, but I want Jordan Davis in the second”

And the Champions nominate the Champions.

9. Who will get the consensus biggest bargain?

The Champions says “The Hard – this is how he does well”, and, as recent analysis has shown, unless you don’t believe in all that analysis bollocks (I know I don’t), it is how he does well.

The Hard nominated the Bombermen. Which is very nice of them. I doubt that will hold up now.

The Sadness also believes in the Hard’s drafting ability.

As well as James Cook, Jameson Williams was also making picks in this draft, according to the Brees, and will end up with the biggest bargain… Again, if we change the question to the one they answered, maybe this could be right. He came off the board to the Champions at 1.07. Will that prove to be a bigger bargain that Velus Jones in the 11th round?

We thought the Champions had nailed it above, did the Bombermen nail it here: “Somebody will fall into the Losers’s lap that everyone thinks is great who will then get injured and his career will never really take off”?

Kelkowski and the Hurricanes both thought the Losers would get the biggest bargain, while Tamworth thought the Brees would. They offered no reasoning or colourful commentary on this.

The Losers made possibly the most prescient comment: “Whoever picks Tyler Algieier? Unless someone reaches for him in the 2nd or something mad. He’s probably a 4th round sort of pick, and with no other competition that’ll be a bargain for a potentially competent starting RB.”

Algieier was taken by Tamworth at 2.09 (19th overall).

10. When will the first QB go off the board (round and pick number)? & 11. Who will be the first QB taken?

The correct answer here was Malik Willis at 5.05. For me, he was top of my list at QB, but I had hoped that perhaps that wasn’t the thinking elsewhere in the league. Let’s find out.

The Hurricanes, who took Willis at 5.05, plumped for Howell at 4.08 (originally a Tamworth pick, but traded to the Bombermen in the draft), which would have been quite remarkable given he was the 6th QB taken in the draft and the Commanders also just traded a fair bit of capital for Wentz. But hey. The pick was pretty close.

Tamworth went for Pickett at 3.04, which would have been a Champions pick.

Kelkowski also thought Pickett would go, but seemed to think he would go in the first round, putting down pick 10 as the slot he’d go in. No QB has gone first round before. A remarkable suggestion. A reminder that Pickett when at 8.09 to the Hard.

The Bombermen suggested the first QB would go to the Hurricanes (bing bing bing), but went a round early at 4.05… “Pickett – [the Hurricanes] will take him because he’s a Steeler. It will be the consensus reach.”

The Brees went for the same player, but even higher, at 2.09, which would have been a Hard pick.

The Sadness also plumped for Pickett and also seemed to suggest Neil would take him by isolating pick 3.05 as the spot he’d come off the board.

The Hard has a bone to pick with lots of people after stating “Kenny Pickett. If it’s anyone else it’s a mad pick. I like Corral’s chances for this year too. I’m not sure I’d even bother with any of the others.” We’ve already mentioned they took Pickett themselves, and a long way below the 4.10 (Kelkowski) slot he thought he would go in.

The Losers also said Pickett. “Nobody should be picking Pickett before the 6th round. No other QB should be drafted in the first 7 or 8. He’ll probably go in the 4th though, pick 37”, with, for some reason, the Bombermen taking him (or trading out of the pick, I guess).

The Champions also went for the 4th round, suggesting “4.06, wait that’s me, 4.07”. As for who? “Slim Pickens”. Thanks. For. That.

12. When will the first defensive player go off the board (round and pick number)? & 13. Who will be the first defensive player taken?

Real answer: Quay Walker, 1.10.

Commentary from the Champions: “Honestly, it should probably be 1.01. Have [the Dungeoneers] got the balls for it? Given I’ve said [the Sadness] will trade down I’ll say [the Losers] will at 1.03. Maybe [they]’ll play it more traditional but [they’re] just crazy enough.” Nailed. It. And likewise nailed the who: “I’ve [said the Losers] will do it so I’ll say Aidan Hutchinson as [they] only [have] 3 DEs.” Given the Losers respect for his “T-Rex arms”, couldn’t have been more right.

The Hard were one place and one player out, opting for 2.01 and Devin Lloyd (second defensive player at 2.02). Perceptive. The Losers also went for 2.01, but said it would be Hutchison.

The Sadness nailed it. Because they knew they intended to take Walker at 1.10. I’m not giving points for predicting what you’re going to do. Sorry.

The Brees said Aidan Hutchison at 2.07. He was the 4th defensive player at 2.05, so not a million miles away for the draft spot at least.

Let’s see what the Bombermen have to offer… “2.07? I might take one. Though I could see one going earlier,” and “Hutchison? The Detroit DE taken with the second pick.” So cribbing notes from the Brees then.

2.07 is clearly in vogue as Kelkowski picked Devin Lloyd to be the first defensive player taken in that slot. Perhaps the Bombermen have developed a reputation for taking defensive players early? However, they’ve normally done it in the first round.

Tamworth were pretty close pick-wise, opting for 1.08 – the only one to suggest a defensive player would go in the first. They also managed to write this as a footer rather than in the body of the text. Just a bit of flavour of the kind of rubbish I have to put up with. Anyway, they correctly predicted the pick would be Walker. Bravo! That said, their predicted first round – the first question of this survey, said the Hard would take Skyy Moore at 1.08, so draw your own conclusions.

Finally the Hurricanes thought safety Kyle Hamilton would come off the board 4th, which must make him a steal for the Sadness at 3.02.

14. Who will take the most defensive players?

Volume or percentage, the answer is the same:

The Champions were close. Ish. “Probably [us]. [We] have a history of not taking offensive players after the first 3 rounds except for the odd TE.” Two odd WRs and an odd RB in the final 4 rounds put to rest any dreams in that direction.

The Hard sort of nailed this one, suggesting the Sadness, who were any acceptable right answer by volume.

The Sadness also knew their destiny and predicted they would top the list too.

The Brees also put themselves forward but were a little further from being accurate.

The Bombermen threw themselves and the Champions into the ring and get nothing in return.

The Losers pumped for themselves and weren’t a million miles out: “I’m hoping it’ll be me. I need to do some work.”

Kelkowski gets the dunces hat for nominating themselves, while Tamworth opted for the Brees and the Hurricanes opted for the Champions.

15. How long will the draft last (in days, hours and minutes)?

Actual answer – 6 days, 1 hour and 8 minutes. Well done to the Champions for just being closer than Tamworth:

The latecomer Losers said 3 days, 4 hours, 11 minutes, putting them as the second most inaccurate. Again, it’s a “stupid fucking question”, but if they think it’s so obvious, they were an awfully long way out…

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The Dynabowl 2022 Draft Entrance Survey

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