Ever wanted to understand Dynabowl Drafts better? Well, we’re here to make that much, much harder.
Here’s some basic “analysis” of the nine Dynabowl drafts to have taken place so far. The dataset will be available at the bottom of this article for you to download and do your own review. But you MUST read it all first. Standard rules – no downloading without reading.
A couple of reminders – in the first three drafts – 2015-2017 – we only had 7 rounds, before ramping things up to 12 in 2018. That’ll likely skew a few bits, but hey.
Let’s start things off with some simple counting. How many players of each position have we drafted each year?
Would you look at that. And what do we take away from all that? I don’t know. Take away what you will. CBs are the least popular, though a big jump in 2023, reacting to the change in contract guarantees to prevent streaming, perhaps? The last couple of years have seen 5 special teamers taken after 7 were taken in total in the first 7 years, but more punters than kickers taken is, well, not interesting but mildly notable perhaps?
Excepting 2015, we’ve been pretty consistent in the percentage of defensive players taken, and 2023 seeing the second most taken in a draft ever. It’s still slightly more offense focused, but not by a huge margin.
Maybe it’s more interesting to look at who’s gone for what positions…
The Dungeoneers loves a punter.
The Sadness have taken more RBs and WRs than anyone else, but have also had at 13 more picks than every other team as well.
The Brees have taken nearly double the number of safeties than anyone else, which is pretty astonishing, and 20% of all the safeties ever taken, while the Dungeoneers have taken 23.5% of all CBs ever taken.
Just by position group, two teams have spent more than half their picks on defense…
… while Dyna Hard just could not care less about defense.
In terms of rounds, where do the players get taken?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, it takes a while for defensive players to really get going in the league. Just 6.7% of first round picks go on that side of the ball, and it takes to round 3 to get close to the overall average – 41.1% vs an average of 43.4%.
Rounds 4, 6, and 8-10 all have more than 50% of their picks going on the defense.
Finally, what draft slot is the first player at each position taken?
DT has slowly risen in the rankings, moving from 51, into the 30s fairly consistently, the teens and twenties and finally the first round in 2023. DE and LB have both shifted up a bit as well, with a clear change in mindset from 2019 onwards on the DE front.
RB has gone first every year bar 2021 – the Kyle Pitts year – while WR has been consistently high, with an exception in 2018 where, astonishingly, it took until pick 9 for Calvin Ridley to be selected. That year opened with 8 RBs – Barkley, Guice, Ronald Jones, Penny, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, and Kerryon Johnson. Two decent picks there, ahead of Ridley and DJ Moore roudning out the first.
Worth noting that in the last 4 drafts, the Sadness have been the first to take a TE – Trautman (2020, 34th), Pitts (2021, 1st), McBride (2022, 42nd), Kincaid (2023, 14th).
Anyway, here’s where you can download the data and do your own analysis. As ever, you’re welcome to send your ‘insights’ in and have them published on the site for us all to enjoy.
Before this year’s draft I sent each GM 20 very sensible questions about the upcoming draft, and some of them bothered to answer some or all of the 21 questions.
First up is the now traditional (2 years is a tradition, right) request to predict the first 10 picks of the draft, with points awarded for the accuracy. Let’s see how we all got on?
So it’s a tie at the top between last year’s top 2, but Kelkowski claim the 2023 crown on the unannounced tiebreaker of most spot on guesses, making it back to back triumphs. Can they replicate their success here in the real league?
Lots of votes for Dalton Kincaid in the first round, who eventually fell to 2.04. The other swings and misses: Achane – 2.01; Miller – 2.02; Johnson – 2.03; Campbell – 2.05; Young – 2.10; Wilson – 3.01; and finally Tajae Spears went at 3.07 to Tamworth – a steal in the opinion of Chris.
2. If everything breaks right for you, who would you come away with with each of your first 5 picks? Be realistic, no picking the top 5 players in the draft.
A new addition for this year, and some interesting insight into what GMs think they need, and what they think of other people’s valuations.
We’ll start with The Sadness. They got 1 of their 5 targets, though could have had two of them. Perhaps got a little optimistic with the hopes of getting Rashee Rice in the 4th, but then maybe they prefer Tillman and never thought he could remotely get that far. As for Kayshon Boutte, they passed him over not once, not twice, not thrice, but… oh, wait, it was thrice.
The Losers didn’t quite follow the spirit of the question and nominated several players at most slots and, in doing so, managed to secure 3 of the players they hoped for. Got very hopeful on the quarterbacks though…
The Hurricanes are a little complicated, what with the trading and all. Not only that, they grabbed a player early they were hoping to get much later. Missing out on Bryce Young by a pick must be galling though.
The Hard draft is quite different from the hopes and dreams GM Chris had ahead of the big day(s), but then having traded up for Bijan Robinson, he could have used the rest of his picks on Dynabowl GMs and still been happy. They clearly wanted Downs as, having traded away the pick they’d hoped to use, they picked him up a round earlier.
Reigning champions the Brees were still drunk, and got progressively drunker, as they wrote their hopes and dreams, missing out by 3, then 7, then 14, and finally by 33 picks. Luke Musgrave was the man snatched away at the last moment there… Meanwhile, they passed over Zach Harrison not once, not thrice, but twice.
Speaking of deluded, the Bombermen thought they could grab Anthony Richardson in the fifth round and were also suckered in by the promise of Luke Musgrave in the fourth. But grabbing two of their first three hopes is the good news, though Miller was sniped. Some insider info, their GM says that literally any of the 4 RBs in that tier would have been good and the order of them hadn’t been set when the survey was completed.
Finally, we have Kelkowski, who got three of their targets, one with a theoretical reach, and wasn’t disastrously out for the other two. You could argue Miller was a bit optimistic, I suppose, but all in all a good haul based on the pre-draft desires.
Questions 3-7. How many trades will there be during the draft? Do you want to trade? Which pick will be the first traded? What will it be traded for? And who will be involved in it?
The real answer was an astonishingly low 2 picks, perhaps showing that interest in the league is drying up and we should all go home, just as soon as I have won a second title. I mean, I’ll be honest, if you all quit, as it seems many of you want to, I’ll just GM the vacant teams myself until I get that second win.
Anyway, where was I? Oh yes, two trades. Two! Did anyone see that coming? Well… no. Although there was this from the Bombermen…
Last year my research told me that there were around 6 each of the last few years, and last year there were exactly 6. Based on that, I’m going to go for… 5. I don’t think there are a lot of players people are jostling for position for so people will end up just taking their picks. I guess maybe people will sell picks for players?
So, overall, this what we all said:
Shockingly, the only person who foresaw the trade for the number 1 pick coming was one of the two teams involved, Chris and the Hard. No one else saw Neil as being involved, though quite a few fingered Chris as a wheeler dealer.
Was there anything else insightful to be found? No, obviously not. I mean, it’s stretching things to say any of this nonsense is insightful if we’re being honest, but here are some choice highlights.
I don’t think [Chris] really needs those 2 first so will look to move back.
Kelkowski
I would like to trade up to #1 for Bijan. Neil isn’t returning my calls though. I doubt I’ll have two guys I love at 1.06/7, so would be happy to trade one of those picks for a vet or move down and get a few mid round picks to stock up on a shit load of TEs
Dyna Hard
Things got a little confusing with the answers from the Losers. Which pick will be the first traded?
I can see all of 3-8 being available, but I don’t know who’s moving up for them, so I’d probably say somewhere in the early to late 2nd. I could see maybe 1.10/2.01 – there’s been a few trades in that region historically.
But then, who will be involved in the first trade?
If the top two picks don’t move (and I don’t think they will), and picks 3-8 are untradeable, then that leaves… 1.10 and 2.01 as potential breakpoints for the 2nd tier of RBs, I could see a move there, but the price is probably a bit steep. So, I’ll say mid to late 2nd, about 2.04 to 2.06.
You can see why the table above is a bit unclear.
Then we come to the Hurricanes responses, which contradict each other and the reality of what he actually did during the draft (though of course it’s possible to change your mind between answering and trading). The ‘Canes said that the Bombermen’s 1.03 would be the first pick to be traded, and that Chris and Max would be involved in the trade. Maybe they were hinting at an unprecedented three-way trade?
Still, we’ll leave the last word to the always chipper Losers, in response to the number of trades question…
I still don’t see the point of this question though, we’re just picking a number out of the air and it’s not a meaningful thing to guess.
Let’s be honest, there’s no meaning to any of this, but it is still possible to offer something hinting at use, as the Bombermen showed above.
Back to whether the individuals wanted to trade at all…
I’d like Anthony Richardson or a top TE and I don’t really see them lasting beyond the middle of the third, so if I can do a deal at a good price, I could look to move up there
Losers
I’ve not had many early picks in recent years so I keen to keep them this year. Having said that if the right offer presents itself to help me this year then I’ll listen. Depending on how it goes I may look to get extra picks in the 2nd / 3rd rounds
Kelkowski
Yes, move down from 1.10 to pick up more picks in rounds 2 and 3 to take some more RB prospects
Brees
I wouldn’t mind trading up a few picks from 2.03 to try to get Kendre Miller.
Bombermen
And finally the Hurricanes chime in with this gem:
Will trade down for a combination of
Yes, that’s the full quote. Anyway, onwards…
The positions people wanted to find a 2023 contributor for:
So everyone’s a winner, baby.
Running backs. And a lot of them. Because, as we know, successful running backs can come out of nowhere.
Bombermen
Does 3 count as a lot?
For this season RB, but for dynasty purposes it’s TEs. This class looks absolutely stocked with them.
Hard
‘Hard’ agree from me. During the draft, when the Hard took both Musgrave and Washington, a leak in the Bombermen front office has confirmed they were next on the draft board. Although an important caveat to that is that the source does not recall if that’s actually accurate, or mere flattery being sent to the Hard.
Meanwhile…
All of them.
Kelkowski
They didn’t make the table above as what’s the point (beyond what’s the point of any of this)? Anyway, they failed to take a QB, punter, kicker or safety, so mission failed.
Onwards!
9-11. The reaches! Who are you most likely to reach for? Who will make the consensus biggest reach? Who will be reached for?
So two sets of cop-out comments were given here. Let’s see what you all had to say:
How are you most likely to reach for?
I don’t know if there is anyone specifically. Kendre Miller, but then it won’t be a reach (I’m not taking him at 3). I guess I’d like, assuming Miller is gone, Achane going at 13 maybe seen as a reach by some. But then he may not make it that far.
Bombermen
So nominating two players that they’d only take if they got through to them at the right kind of place based on ADP. Thanks for that. (TBF, some online rankings had Achane down in the 20s so it was feasible someone might see 13 as a reach)
I don’t think there’s anyone worth reaching for in this class, I’m happy to just see what falls to me. But if I feel like one of the big TEs or Richardson has slipped a few places past where I have them ranked, then I might well make a move to get them.
Losers
So I’d reach for a player if they feel to the point that they were now a bargain rather than a reach. Thanks. For. That. As. Well.
Who will make the biggest reach?
Based on my top 10, either Kendre Miller or Roschon Johnson. The problem is there’s no reaches in this class. I can’t see the top 6 not being fixed (the order might be different, but the first six players should be the first six players), and after that it’s hard to really identify who’s next, or argue for one player or another as clearly better / worse.
Losers
I mean, it’s accurate analysis of the available players in the draft, but in no way does it answer the question or spice up any inter-team rivalries.
And then comments on all the questions from one team:
I think I am a lot higher than other people on Josh Downs and Tank Dell. I’d be ok with taking Downs in the early 2nd and Dell in the 3rd. Both are tiny but both are so good. I have a thing for small WRs apparently.
Neil [will make the consensus biggest reach]. He usually takes a cornerback or safety earlier than expected.
Tough to say [who will be reached for] because ECR looks a bit barmy for some players. Mingo at 13? Richardson at 5? I could see someone taking Will Anderson in the first which I’d see as a reach. But against ADP/ECR, maybe Jayden Reed?
Hard
Thanks for playing the game.
Onto Bargains…
12-13. Who will get the biggest bargain, and who will fall far enough to seem like a bargain?
We’ll have to see what the exit surveys say, but as a warm up, LaPorta went at 3.10 to the Champions, Levis went at 7.09 to the Losers, Young went at 2.10 to the Brees and absolutely will not be seen as a bargain, no matter how much they want us to think he was, and Tillman went at 4.04 to the Sadness and could be seen as one, while Downs went at 2.06 and definitely won’t be.
14. Three QBs went in the first 4 picks of the NFL draft. What order will they go in in the Dyanbowl draft?
Everyone got the order right. Well done, every one. Give yourselves a Malteser. However, the predictions were all over the place. Kudos to Neil, who is a Dynabowl QB drafting savant, nailing 2 of the picks and only being a handful of picks out on the third:
And Kelkowksi manage to save the Bombermen’s blushes with some spectacularly wrong answers.
DE-FENCE! DE-FENCE! DE-FENCE!
15-17. When will the first defensive player go, who will it be and who will take the most defensive players?
Consensus!!
Everyone nailed that Will Anderson would be first, and three people nailed the pick down to 1.08.
The Losers added some useful (genuinely) commentary:
1.08-1.09. I think I might get gazumped, but I’m almost certainly taken Jalen Carter if he’s there. So 1.09 is the absolute floor. But I could certainly see Ian taking either Carter or Will Anderson. Chris doesn’t take defenders that high.
As for number of defensive players:
The most were taken by Tamworth and the Sadness, but Tamworth edge it on percentage. Congratulations to nobody.
18-20. Winners and Losers
Some cognitive dissonance for the Hurricanes who think that the Champions will be judged as the worst team, but also that they, themselves, will be ranked last. No one wanting to put themselves forward as the top pick. And a few comments on this subject too:
[On the draft winner] This is always a bad question on the exit survey because it’s often the person with the most capital. We don’t tend (as a group) to stray too far from consensus rankings, so the person with the most and highest picks get what people think is the best haul, and we don’t tend to evaluate against expectations either. I’ll say Chris, as he has 2 1st and 2 2nd rounders, but Pete might be right there with a top 2 pick in every round.
[And loser] Tamworth? No picks in the first two rounds.
Losers
[Winners] The Champions. It’s always Max. Lack of research is your friend. Or rather, his.
[Losers] The Sadness. Because they have to be sad.
[Self] 7th. I don’t get the respect I deserve.
Bombermen
[Winner] Neil, on the basis he’s almost certainly getting Bijan.
[Loser] Goody, mainly because he has no picks in the 1st two rounds and that’s always tough to recover from.
Hard
21. How long will the draft last?
It’s the only question, out of all of this, that really matters. You’ve waded through all the shit above and finally reached the pinnacle. So what were the results?
I know a lot of you put a lot of time and effort into calculating this figure, trying to get as close as humanly possible, and that work has been well rewarded for the Hard and the Sadness, both within 24 hours of the actual time. Bravo!
I’ll give the last word to the Losers:
Too long and not long enough.
This is an aside, like the number of trades question. I don’t get the point of this, it’s just a guess. We’ve all got better things to do than fill in a survey for fun, so cut out some of the fat? Get it down to a quicker 10 questions – I’ve highlighted the ones I’d keep, with or without tweaks.
Chris Braithwaite decided to look at defensive strength and make some projections for the 2022 season:
“Slatz did a write up about team values. You could probably read that if there was a website somewhere. I dunno. But he didn’t include defensive players in that, simply because MFL doesn’t have the data to properly do anything with them given our league settings. So I decided to see what I can do”
Some years ago Ian did a preview looking at the ADP of the players on each team. It’s an interesting idea – because we’re a dynasty league teams will be in different places of a cycle – and the idea was to look at how teams were set up to win now. So I thought I’d repeat it, but with a twist.
In Ian’s analysis he used ADP, but ADP has a couple of problems to my mind – we’re not a redraft league, so we don’t have picks for all players, only rookies, and they can’t be easily equated to salaries. Picks assume an equal value between 1 and 2, 2 and 3 and so on. But if you have a clear top two with a wafer thin difference in value and then a gap to a tier with players 3-5 then this isn’t really reflected. ADP theoretically smooths this a little, as players 1 and 2 should have ADPs around 1.5 and 3-5 around 4, but it still retains the core problem of valuing each pick 1 more than the one before, so the gap between 1.5 and 4 is still an arbitrary 2.5 picks with no recognition that a pick value isn’t a flat amount.
AAV on the other hand says how much of a fixed budget someone is willing to spend on a player. So the difference between 1 and 2 in that ranking could be a couple of cents, while 3-5 is more like a couple of dollars. Also, critically, it’s a currency we use for our salary cap, so it opens up some additional fun options.
Whether it’s ADP or AAV, both methodologies have some similar problems, that I’ll just touch on:
– Not every league runs IDP, and many that do won’t have a full defensive, or will use different defensive scoring. So defensive value isn’t really indicative in the way that offensive is. An example of this, is that only 2 of the top 10 CBs by ADP are even rostered in our league. Because only two CBs have ADP values.
– 2QB leagues are increasingly popular, these inflate the value of QBs significantly, but they do so across the board, so it should balance out on a team-by-team comparison. It does however mean that AAV values for QBs are inflated and so comparison of salary to AAV is less useful at this position.
Anyway, enough of the boring stuff, let’s have a look at how it shakes out.
I could list top AAV by position, but easier just to link you to the AAV info in MFL (note, this link is correct, the one on the MFL homepage is for 2021).
You can access the googledoc with all the data in here, it is a live doc, pulling via the API, so figures may not exactly match.
So, onto the good stuff, who’s got the most valuable team?
Team
Value
Offense Value
Dyna Hard
$905.79
$857.71
Kelkowski
$768.82
$707.27
Brees
$720.65
$671.62
Champions
$705.15
$664.05
Losers
$647.24
$634.16
Sadness
$638.76
$610.51
Bombermen
$579.40
$524.22
The Infamous Two
$557.52
$494.21
Dungeoneers
$557.19
$548.19
Hawkeman
$449.11
$421.77
Let’s start with a positive – the average spend in the dynabowl on offence is $400.20 so I adjusted AAV’s for offence based on that, and everyone’s AAV beats that baseline value, so everyone’s got some value there. Rookie contracts help a lot with that, for example Breece Hall(!) is somehow the top AAV on MFL, and his 20 dollar salary for this year against his AAV is 31 (before rescaling to the baseline of $400), so his salary to AAV rating is 944%. More on that sort of thing in a bit.
Chris is a clear leader here, lead by a receiver group with a total AAV of almost 400 on their own ($397.60), by far the most valuable group in the league, ahead of Ben’s receivers ($308.95). Neil’s bottom placed ranking can largely be traced to this same position group as his receivers value up at only $102.41, significantly behind the next worst in Mike ($174.93) and the Commish ($168.28).
The top RB group belongs to Ian ($280.18) but there’s a cluster of closely matched 2nd placed groups of Pete ($234.88), Chris ($234.52) and Mike ($231.08) and Ben ($225.40). People in auction drafts just don’t like Jonathan Taylor as much as you’d think. The lowest valued RB groups belong to T2 ($122.14) and the Commish ($137.51).
Ian, Pete and Neil have more valuable RB groups than WR groups, where for everyone else it’s the reverse.
It’s closer in the QB group – Max at $158.36 has the most valuable group, just ahead of the Losers ($153.32) and Chris ($149.40). While the Commish has the most valuable TE group ($98.01). While there’s a couple of others who are close, Neil is the only GM who’s QB group is more valuable that one of the two big skill position groups (his aforementioned WR group). Unsurprisingly, everyone’s TEs are their least valuable group.
Defence, as previously alluded to, receives an average spend of $165 in salary. In AAV, the highest total defensive value belonged to T2 at $62. So, yeah, that pretty much makes the point about IDP in our league vs others. The figures are all in the sheet, but I’m not going to waste time on trying to draw any conclusions.
So far, so good. But you can’t and won’t play all these players. So let’s go deeper. What about the starting line-ups?Based on a line-up of 1QB, 3RBs, 4WRs how do the teams value up? (figures rounded)
Team
Starters
QB
RB
WR
TE
Dyna Hard
$460
$68
$127
$215
$50
Kelkowski
$416
$78
$174
$149
$15
Brees
$440
$40
$147
$230
$23
Champions
$427
$56
$140
$215
$14
Losers
$431
$80
$144
$188
$19
Sadness
$445
$62
$196
$128
$59
Bombermen
$360
$85
$110
$120
$45
Tamworth Two
$379
$45
$100
$196
$37
Dungeoneers
$453
$58
$219
$166
$11
Hawkeman
$300
$55
$135
$84
$26
What this highlights is how depth plays a part in total value. Chris’s WR group ($215) is not just not miles ahead now, it’s not even ahead. While it’s still a strong group (stars and scrubs is a legit strategy in Auction drafts), it’s only joint second alongside Max and behind Ben ($230). The gap from these three to 4th and 5th is only 20 dollars too.
Even more of a drop than Chris’ WRs are Ian’s RBs drop from the highest value group to third, behind Mike ($196) and Pete ($219). Who’ve topped the last two drafts, showing that rookie value.
Meanwhile, in terms of overall value… it’s actually pretty tight: Chris leads at 460, but 7 teams are above 414 dollars (90% of Chris’ value). Only Neil, once again let down by his receivers, T2 and the Commish are not in this group.
As I mentioned earlier, one big difference between ADP and AAV is that AAV allows us to compare what someone would pay for someone this year, with what we are paying for someone this year, so we can look at value – both best and worst – in this case, expressed in terms of salary as a percentage of AAV (i.e. lower is better value)
Team
Value
RB value
WR value
Squad
Starters
Starters
Starters
Dyna Hard
51.2%
36.7%
52.7%
37.1%
Kelkowski
59.4%
56.5%
34.0%
92.1%
Brees
47.6%
36.1%
29.2%
53.7%
Champions
47.7%
40.1%
49.8%
45.4%
Losers
58.3%
53.4%
62.3%
78.5%
Sadness
82.9%
90.9%
79.7%
120.6%
Bombermen
67.0%
49.9%
47.1%
84.4%
Tamworth Two
82.4%
84.4%
110.5%
65.9%
Dungeoneers
87.3%
72.8%
20.1%
163.4%
Hawkeman
93.2%
85.3%
79.4%
127.9%
OK, I’m going to start to try and say less as this is already quite long, but some highlights… T2 are the only team paying over 100% of their AAV for their RBs. It’s tough to do, but congrats. Benefitting from back to back 1st picks spent on RBs, the dungeoneers are paying a league-low 20.1%.
At receiver the opposite is true, the dungeoneers are paying a whopping 163.4% of the market values of their receiver. The Sadness are also paying over the odds at receiver and so are the Hurricanes, tough break when they’ve such a low value, but with others where you might be overpaying one or two individuals and driving total salary up (say hello DeAndre Hopkins) in Neil’s case it’s more that people don’t value what he has, so any sort of salary looks like an overpay.
Lastly, the Dungeoneers (87.3%) and Hurricanes (93.2%), led by those high cost receiver groups have the least discount on their offensive squad, though neither is overpaying vs AAV overall. Pete’s cheaper starting group (72.8%) means that he drops out of the top two for starters, replaced by the Sadness who go straight to number one with a bullet (90.9%).
At the other end of the scale, The Brees have the best value overall group and starting group just ahead of Chris by 0.6% for starters, while the Champions are only 0.1% behind in the total offence.
The two things that seem to have the biggest impacts on this are having young receivers who’ve got a good season or two under their belt but are, still on their rookie deal, (Lamb, Chase, Jefferson) or box-fresh rookie RBs (Harris, Walker). Although, as this last table shows, the best value is not always where you’d expect it (in fact, it almost never is):
Team
MVP! MVP! MVP!
Least Valuable Player
Dyna Hard
Kenny Pickett
Jalen Raegor
Kelkowski
Jalen Hurts
Curtis Samuel
Brees
Trey Hendrickson
Darius Slayton
Champions
Jaquan Brisker(!)
Quintez Cephus
Losers
Justin Herbert
Anthony Schwartz
Sadness
Cole Holcomb
Trey Sermon
Bombermen
Demarcus Lawrence
DJ Chark (doo doo do do do do)
Tamworth Two
Justin Jefferson
Odell Beckham
Dungeoneers
Joe Burrow
DeAndre Hopkins
Hawkeman
Malik Willis
N’Keal Harry
Of course, value is ultimately a measure of what people are willing to pay for a player, it’s not indicative of how they’ll actually perform. The wisdom of the crowd has C-Mac’s one working hamstring as a top two pick by ADP and the highest value player overall (in PPR formats), so I’m not sure how far to trust it anyway, but if nothing else, it offers an interesting insight into who’s got what would be considered the ‘best’ teams at this point and the best position groups. Meanwhile, should we pass a emergency rule that Chris and Neil should swap receiver groups?
This exit survey was run by Chris Braithwaite, GM of Dyna Hard. I am certain that everything shown in this report is exactly right and hasn’t been twisted in any way, shape or form. Anyway, onwards…
Welcome to the 100% accurate assessment of the Dynabowl draft. Why even bother playing the games after this when we know exactly how good all of these players are going to be, right?
We’ll start out simple: average scores per team. There were two teams way out in front, with an average of 7.3. Max takes it by a nose, 7.33 to 7.25, over Chris. That’s especially impressive given Max’s admission that “I genuinely don’t know who any of the players are.” Ignorance is evidently bliss. Max was the only person to garner a 10 (apart from Goody trying to sneak a 10 in for himself), but Chris was the only person where every vote was 6 or higher. So there’s that. It’s then a drop of 0.9 down to Pete in 3rd at an average of 6.4. So lets just skip right to the bottom, where Benj is sitting with a score of 4.9, just behind Goody’s 5.0. And lets take a moment to give credit to Neil, who was the only person who managed to have his drafted rated as a 1 and yet had enough people who liked his draft to get him to a solid mid-table finish. Congrats?!
Team
Rank
Average
Max
Min
Max
1
7.3
10
5
Chris
2
7.3
9
6
Pete
3
6.4
7
5
Mike
4
6.1
7
5
Neil
5
5.8
8
1
Ian
6
5.5
8
3
Ben & Stew
7=
5.3
7
4
Slatz
7=
5.3
8
2
Goody
8
5.0
8
2
Benj
9
4.9
7
3
The overall average was 5.9, so if your score was below that, you did badly. But good work overall everyone on using a reasonable scoring scale, rather than the actual NFL draft grades which seem to have A- as a fail.
Comments
Enough with the numbers, lets get to the comments. We’ll go in the same order as the rankings for this draft, so the comments get progressively worse. Lets not make this thing too cheerful, right?
Max
Okay
I like quite a few if them. Good effort
Loved this draft. Burks and Williams were my top 2 WRs, Pickens could easily be in there to were it not for the character concerns. He could easily have got 3 WR1s here. Generally liked the value throughout and it was difficult to pick anyone as a bust.
Had the capital to get some high end talent and didn’t make any boneheaded picks with it. However, endorsed domestic abuse, so swings and roundabouts.
Good solid team bolstering
Really like most of this draft, hard to be critical. Jameson Williams might be the best receiver in the draft (Watson has a higher ceiling, but way more variability). If Burks is Brown 2.0 as suggested then that’s another win at 4.
Chris
Some good early picks but no one after that
Decent. I like most of them
I like the receivers drafted and could be shrewd value with Pickett
A lot of players I had on my list. He was picking after me so maybe this should have been my draft?
Solid as usual
I don’t like Olave because he doesn’t match up physically well against anyone and I’m not sure how often even a mediocre corner will give him a free release. In space he’s Edelman-esque though. I also am very down on the whole Saints offence. Wan’Dale Robinson I like there, White I’d hoped to get and Skyy Moore could be great, although I think he’s risen a bit too high in fantasy/NFL drafts to be the player I liked as a sleeper pre-draft.
And here’s what Chris thought: “I am still not super happy with picking Moore – my rankings loved him so I just decided to trust them. Was disappointed not to get more defensive players, but I liked the couple I got.”
Pete
Solid and predictable
Hall and Watson should be fine. The rest?
I feel like it’s a good mix of solid chalky players (Hall, Bell) who should have a good floor and then boom/bust guys like Watson and Andersen. I liked him double dipping at CB for 2 elite prospects – they still seemed like OK value, which isn’t usually the case with the 1st CB. His team is notably better after the draft than it was before.
Steady
Wadda lodda corners.
It hinges heavily on Watson – Hall will be what he’ll be. Either a solid committee back who ends up mid-tier, or a clear win, but he’s the #1 pick, generally you’re going to get something there barring unforeseen things like injuries. Watson’s ceiling is right up there. If you somehow hit on the best WR in this class and the best RB, then it’s a big win.
Here’s what Pete had to say for himself: “This wonderful human being deserves all the success that is undoubtedly coming his way.”
Mike
Started well and then tailed off with some average picks
Not normally a fan of so much d early but I like what boob has done
Good draft capital but not sure he got any stars out of it. The defensive players are all good, but I don’t think any are going to turn his team into a contender and Walker doesn’t feel like he has top 5 upside. Threw a lot of interesting darts in the middle rounds though.
Quay Walker will “bust” only in fantasy terms. He’ll likely work well at run stopping but I don’t see him getting the kind of plays you need at LB to be successful in our league. Volume drafting is probably sensible to try to turn the team around. The more darts the better.
Embrace the D
Austin is nice there as an upside guy, though he’s tiny. I think the Steelers might be a bit more creative in his use than the Seahawks with Eskridge. I love the Hamilton pick and Ebikete could be awesome, always bet on athleticism in that position. And Lloyd could be Isaiah Simmons or Micah Parsons… Walker, I get, and I wouldn’t have passed on him at 3 – it’s more about the shallowness of the draft in that position than talent. But not much else to get excited about.
Mike’s fairly tepid assessment was “Lot of mid round talent reflecting lots of mid round picks.”
Neil
First two picks great, not much to shout about after then
Awful. Don’t like any of these picks
Cook felt like a major reach. Hutchinson is good but propped up by his draft capital in a super weak class. Did good work in the middle rounds though – I feel like everyone from Hutchinson to Tindall has a legit shot to be their team’s #1 at their position. And Snoop Conner has a realistic path to relevance.
Good value later in the draft, although Cook felt like a bit of a reach at the top
Nothing silly. Some players who will contribute. But I’m hardly tumescent reviewing it.
Decent
I felt Cook was bad value at 8/9 – I understood why he was mocked there because of the RB class being shallow – but to take him at 5 with Williams and Wilson or even Moore, Watson and Olave still there feels like a massively wasted pick for a guy who seems like he’s probably somewhere between Cole Beasley and JD McKissick. Willis has a massive upside if he develops enough as a passer to start.
Ian
Not many high picks but some good quality lower down
Didn’t have too much capital in the end, but did ok with it. Spiller was great value, I thought he’d go a round earlier (and he would have if Goody hadn’t made a big offer). Taking 3 TEs feels a bit wasteful to me though, and I can’t see how Dulcich becomes fantasy relevant in that offense – it’s just so crowded.
Got some good late round value with players falling to them. Could make up for a lack of early picks
Literally no one I was thinking about taking.
Not a lot to work with, but flags fly forever! Oooo Rah!
He traded all his picks to win. And won. In that sense it’s a 10/10. If we’re purely judging on picks made… they’re pretty bad picks, but what do you expect with so few and so few early.
Neil took the Max approach here: “Who are these guys.”
Ben and Stew
Okay at first, but Karlaftis was a reach
Reasonable solid effort without being spectacular
I loved Wilson as a prospect, so they’ve done well there. I wasn’t a big fan of Davis-Price, but can’t argue with the upside and he was quite cheap. Hated the Karlaftis pick though, I think he’s going to be one of those decent NFL guys but who maxes out at about 8 sacks. So not a fan there. They tend to do well with defensive players though.
Boom-bust profile
Pretty by the book. Nothing to get wildly excited about but nothing which makes me want to vomit in my mouth. Which is a nice change.
Good competent draft in a tough spot (6)
This draft comes down to Wilson really. And it’s really hard to know how good he’ll be if Zach Wilson continues his trend of trying to make Nathan Peterman look good retrospectively. Karlaftis should be fine, if not special – maybe in a Spags defence with his ears pinned back he might be more, but I’m not sure how long Spags will be around there. Pierce is an X factor, ridiculous athletic talent with true #1 ceiling, but he’s so raw he’s basically unprepared sushi.
Slatz
Love the first 5 picks
Don’t like it at all. Lots of reaches
I was comparatively low on London and Thibodeaux so I expect to be an outlier here. And I love Davis, but don’t think a rookie DT who needs a tonne of projection to be relevant in the NFL is worth a 3rd. I feel like there’s a lot of guys who will stick around the roster, I don’t think there are many who will be stars. Honestly, Harris is the only guy I think he got who he didn’t overdraft.
Seemed to know the guys he wanted to draft and took them
It’s obviously the best draft. Obviously. Because everyone else took the wrong players, which means he must have got the right ones.
Reasonable draft for the awkward tweener drafting position
Here’s what Slatz had to say: “10/10 of course. Seriously though, passing on White to take Thibodeaux was a tough call, and needs to work out as RB was a real need. Davis is a gamble some will hate, but I love a guy like that and I had to hold myself back from taking him in the second, so for me I feel like that pick was value.”
Goody
Pretty rubbish
I didn’t like any of their picks bar Dotson (and didn’t really like the trade for him). Pierce and Allgeier feel like desperation picks for a win now team, and Asamoah isn’t going to contribute for at least a year, if not two. Otton might be decent, but that’s about it.
Decent value with limited picks
Lots of reaching. A number of players I wouldn’t have minded getting 2-5 rounds later. Not to my taste. But he’s happy and that’s nice.
The drive to succeed within the season leaves his drafts a bit threadbare.
Both Allgeier and Pierce represent the same thing – dice rolls on opportunity/volume with players of limited draft capital and questionable efficacy in bad situations. If both work out the value question goes out the window. If both fail then this looks pretty bleak. Both seem about as likely?
Here’s what Goody had to say: “The best draft ever.”
Benj
Average at best.
Too d heavy early on for me. Not many picks I liked
Didn’t have too much capital, but didn’t do much with it. I wasn’t a fan of Dean and most of the other players feel like they’ve got limited upside.
I like the mid round skill players. Be interested to see how the DTs turn out
Similar ignore-the-draft team building strategy to Goody. Comment withheld.
Hard to judge properly on someone who traded away high picks, without valuing in what was gained vs what could have been gained. Dean looks like a steal, but Philly have been a graveyard for LBs. If he balls out (and he has the talent to be Roquan Smith) that’s a really good spot to have grabbed him.
And here’s what Benj had to say: “Didn’t have a first, traded out of the second, didn’t stupidly reach for anyone, got some of the players I hoped for, but was patient and, again, didn’t stupidly reach for anyone I’d earmarked. I’m pretty happy that I got some contributors. I may not have a star in there but I think it gives me some solid depth.”
Trades
While we’re jumping all over the map, lets continue the trend and look at the trades that happened during the draft. This is what we thought, from least balanced trade to most balanced (and there’s a bit of judgement in this):
Goody gets 2022 pick 20 (Jahan Dotson). Ian gets Jalen Hurts, Allen Lazard. (6 favouring Ian, 3 saying even.).
Ben and Stew get picks 69 (Sam Howell) and 99 (Daniel Bellinger). Chris gets pick 66 (Tyler Badie). (4 favouring Chris, 4 saying even, 1 favouring Ben and Stew. And I think I was that one).
Slatz gets 2022 pick 25 (Jalen Tolbert). Neil gets Fred Warner. (4 favouring Neil, 3 saying even, 1 favouring Slatz.
I’ll try something as a summary: a net positive rating for all these trades by team. So you get +1 for each vote saying you won a trade and -1 for each vote saying your lost a trade.
Chris: +7
Iran: +6
Neil: +1
Benj: 0
Slatz: -1
Ben and Stew: -3
Goody: -10
Max, Pete and Mike didn’t make any trades. Benj just made the one perfectly balanced trade. I guess there should be a way to get a bit more nuance here: Neil and Slatz only traded with each other, but I feel like Neil winning a trade involving a 3rd round pick and then losing a trade for an 8th round pick doesn’t really cancel out as much as this table says. And then, does Ben and Stew losing a trade for a 7th round pick really matter? But I can’t be bothered trying to work that out – the data is above if anyone fancies it. But anyway, we all agreed: Goody’s trades were bad, Chris and Iran’s were good.
Individual drafts
I’ll just do these in the order I listed teams in the survey. I’ll say that is so this doesn’t spiral into relentless negativity, but really its just cos its easier for me. For all of these, I’ll just list any answer which got more than 1 vote.
Pete
Best player
Breece Hall (7)
Best value:
David Ojabo (4)
Troy Andersen (3)
Worst value:
Christian Watson (3)
David Bell (3)
Troy Andersen (2)
Bust:
Christian Watson (4)
David Bell (3)
Sleeper
Sauce Gardner (3)
Bryan Cook (3)
Terrel Bernard (2)
It seems we were content with Breece Hall as the consensus number 1, and not at all high on Christian Watson or David Bell. So I guess we’ll find out if Pete knows better than the rest of us. Andersen getting support as both best value and worst value is fun, I love a polarising prospect.
Ben and Stew
Best player
Garrett Wilson (7)
Best value:
Ty Davis-Price (3)
Garrett Wilson (2)
Alec Pierce (2)
Worst value:
George Karlafits (5)
Sam Howell (3)
Bust:
Ty Davis-Price (5)
George Karlaftis (3)
Sleeper
Velus Jones (5)
Daniel Bellinger (2)
So safe to say Ty Davis-Price is a polarising guy. 3 calling him best value, 5 calling him a bust. Same with Karlaftis – not too many calling him a bust, but general agreement that he was bad value.
Goody
Best player
Jahan Dotson (5)
Best value:
Cade Otton (3)
Brian Asamoah (2)
Jahan Dotson (2)
Worst value:
Tyler Allgeier (3)
Dameon Pierce (2)
Jordan Stout (2)
Bust:
Tyler Allgeier (4)
Dameon Pierce (3)
Jahan Dotson (2)
Sleeper
Cade Otton (7)
Its probably not a good sign when you trade up for 2 RBs, and both get support as worst value or a bust. But then Dotson was overwhelmingly seen as the best player and still also garnered support as worst value and a bust too. Basically, everyone liked Cade Otton and that’s about it.
Mike
Best player
Kenneth Walker (4)
Devin Lloyd (3)
Quay Walker (2)
Best value:
Trey McBride (3)
Calvin Austin (2)
Worst value:
Quay Walker (6)
Bust:
Kenneth Walker (4)
Quay Walker (3)
Kyle Hamilton (2)
Sleeper
Phidarian Mathis (3)
Damone Clark (2)
Trent McDuffie (2)
So people either loved or hated Kenneth Walker – he’s either the best player or he’s a bust. Similar for Quay Walker, except that everyone thought he was overvalued too.
Slatz
Best player
Drake London (6)
Kayvon Thibodeaux (2)
Best value:
Jalen Tolbert (4)
Jordan Davis (2)
Christian Harris (2)
Worst value:
Kayvon Thibodeaux (3)
Jordan Davis (2)
Jalen Tolbert (2)
Bust:
Jalen Tolbert (5)
Jordan Davis (3)
Sleeper
Daxton Hill (4)
Matt Corral (2)
Ty Chandler (2)
We generally seemed happy that Drake London was a perfectly fine pick in the 1st, and then it got polarising: Thibodeaux got support as best player and worst value; Jordan Davis got support as best value, worst value and bust; Jalen Tolbert was either best value or a bust. Basically, we have no fucking clue what is going on here, which is no different from any other team’s draft.
Neil
Best player
James Cook (5)
Best value:
Malik Willis (3)
James Cook (2)
Channing Tindall (2)
Worst value:
James Cook (3)
Aidan Hutchinson (2)
John Metchie (2)
Bust:
Malik Willis (3)
Aidan Hutchinson (3)
John Metchie (2)
Sleeper
Jeremy Ruckert (3)
Snoop Cooner (3)
Neil’s draft was weirdly polarising. It had the biggest range of overall ratings, and it also had an unusual spread of best value, worst value and busts. Basically, most people found something to like about Neil’s draft and something to hate too. And no one liked or hated the same players. So this will be an interesting one to see how it plays out in future years.
Benj
Best player
Nakobe Dean (7)
Jermaine Johnson (2)
Best value:
Romeo Doubs (3)
Nakobe Dean (2)
Tyquan Thornton (2)
Worst value:
Nakobe Dean (2)
Jermaine Johnson (2)
Logan Hall (2)
Bust:
Logan Hall (4)
Nakobe Dean (2)
Jermaine Johnson (2)
Sleeper
Desmond Ridder (3)
Charlie Kolar (3)
Kingsley Enagbare (2)
I guess some of us really liked Nakobe Dean (best value) and some didn’t (Bust, worst value), but we generally thought he was the best of a bad bunch. And then we didn’t really like Logan Hall.
Max
Best player
Jameson Williams (5)
Treylon Burks (2)
George Pickens (2)
Best value:
Jameson Williams (3)
George Pickens (2)
Brian Robinson (2)
Worst value:
Travon Walker (2)
Brian Robinson (2)
Bust:
Travon Walker (5)
Treylon Burks (2)
George Pickens (2)
Sleeper
Isiah Pacheco (3)
Kyle Phillips (2)
Brandon Smith (2)
Max’s best player results are fun, especially combined with the bust results, and probably drove his high ratings. The fact that Williams was overwhelmingly more popular than Burks but was picked quite a lot later is interesting. The fact that some people still loved Pickens over both is also interesting. And then the fact that most people thought Travon Walker would be a bust over any of them is interesting too. Although that last bit might just be a bit of noise driven by people not liking Walker as a prospect.
We also seemed to love Jameson Williams – 5 people called him the best pick, 3 called him the best value (as pick 7) and no one called him most likely to bust. So that’s interesting.
Iran
Best player
Isaiah Spiller (6)
Best value:
Isaiah Spiller (6)
Worst value:
Hassan Haskins (3)
Isaiah Spiller (2)
Greg Dulcich (2)
Bust:
Danny Gray (3)
Isaiah Spiller (2)
Hassan Haskins (2)
Greg Dulcich (2)
Sleeper
Chad Muma (5)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (2)
I wasn’t sure whether to include 4 players in the bust rankings for Ian simply because the 4th player was the 70th pick. Spiller being the overwhelming favourite player from this class, and then no real consensus on worst value or bust, seems to say that we basically liked the Spiller pick but not much else. Except Chad Muma. We liked the value there. 2/9 rated Spiller’s lack of speed as the pre-draft story they actually factored in when picking.
Chris
Best player
Skyy Moore (4)
Chris Olave (3)
Best value:
Rachaad White (4)
Wan’Dale Robinson (2)
Worst value:
Wan’Dale Robinson (3)
Skyy Moore (2)
Rachaad White (2)
Bust:
Wan’Dale Robinson (6)
Sleeper
Kaiir Elam (4)
Malcolm Rodriguez (3)
Isaiah Likely (2)
Seems like a couple of people liked Wan’Dale Robinson as good value, but most people thought he was a big reach. Rachaad White feels like the interesting one here, getting votes at best value and worst value. Someone also voted for Isaiah Likely at pick 119 as my worst value, which feels like they either thought I had a hell of a draft or didn’t read the question.
The sleeper picks were mildly interesting: Pickett got a vote as best value, but no picks as a sleeper. People did care about Pickett’s tiny hands – 4/9 said that was the pre-draft storyline they actually considered when making picks.
Random draft bits and pieces
There wasn’t any consensus on the biggest surprise. And some disagreement, between “defensive reaches so early in the second” and “it being so offense heavy.” The other comments were:
How far veluss Jones fell. The slating did for him. Bargain
Cook going top 5
No QBs picked for ages
That I didn’t excessively reach for anyone.
Goody blowing up his team for two mediocre RBs
There also wasn’t consensus on the best name. Sauce Gardner got 1.5 votes, but other than that there was only one vote per player: Smoke Monday, C Otton, Tyler Baddie (sic), Romeo Doubs, Snoop Conner, Ty Fryfogle and ZaQuandre White. Lets hope next year is better. A quick skim of a consensus board seems to think it might be: Henry To’oto’o, Habakkuk Baldonado are both in the top 50.
The only pick comment that people actually liked was “I expect Hassan to be Haskins some questions pretty quickly.” Must do better next year folks.
In terms of getting sniped, Tyler Badie was the only person who was mentioned twice as someone you wanted but some fucker picked first (and you are welcome). Props to Slatz for saying that he got sniped on Kyle Hamilton and then still traded Fred Warner to get a 3rd round pick where he couldn’t take Hamilton.
We’ve been arguing about how to quantify good or bad drafts, and it turns out we don’t really agree on who has been good or bad anyway.
Best drafter in Dbowl history
Chris (3)
Max (2)
Goody (1)
Benj (1)
Can’t remember this draft (2)
Worst drafter
Neil (3)
Slatz (2)
Pete, Mike and Ben & Stew (1)
Don’t want to say (1)
There was an odd consensus here. Simply because no one got votes as best draft and worst drafter. I didn’t check whether anyone voted for themselves. And no one seems to remember Iran drafting at all.
But as we’ve now got 3 years of post-draft surveys, I figured I’d take a look back and see how we rated each other over the last few years. There’s been some impressive consistency: Chris has been 2nd every year, Mike has been 4th every year, Iran has finished either 6th or 7th.. And some less impressive consistency, as Goody and Benj have each finished in the bottom 3 every year. Pete also has an excellent upwards trend.
Team
2022
2021
2020
Total
Rank
Chris
2
2
2
6
1
Ben & Stew
7=
1
1
9
2
Mike
4
4
4
12
3=
Max
1
6
5
12
3=
Neil
5
3
7
15
5
Pete
3
5
10
18
6
Slatz
7=
9
3
19
7=
Ian
6
7
6
19
7=
Benj
9
8
8
25
9
Goody
8
10
9
27
10
The average total is 16. So above that you’ve been good, below that you’ve been bad. It feels overall like vague tiers of Chris, Ben & Stew, Mike and Max; Neil, Pete, Slatz, Iran; Benj and Goody. You could probably put Neil in either the tier above or below, or just make him a tier of his own. Over the last few years anyway. With the depth of analysis you’d expect, I can’t be bothered to see how that correlates to draft capital. But from memory it has felt like Benj, Goody and Iran haven’t had too many picks and have been rated as drafting badly as a result.
It is amusing that based on our surveys, 2 of us think Benj or Goody are the best drafters, and they have been consistently seen as very bad the last 3 years. And 2 of us think Mike and Ben & Stew have been consistently good recently but are seen as bad. While there’s more agreement that midtable Neil and Slatz have been bad.
But I am the best. That’s the key.
With the sort of talent we have for drafting and also for evaluating the performance of everyone else, you definitely want to rely on our collective pearls of wisdom about it. The only consensus was in “do more research” and “do more prep”. And then we had:
“too much hope in the top 10”
“If you draft the best guys you can be really good”.
Helpful. You want the best players, but also the people you think are definitely good players probably aren’t. But what about this?
“Trade all your picks. Then you can’t fail”
“Do not, under any circumstances, get involved in a draft day trade with any of the followi…” (I have no idea what happened here).
So definitely trade all your picks no matter what, but also don’t trade. And then my favourite:
“It’s a crap shoot and only 2 or 3 of us are any good at shooting those craps. And none of them are Slatz”
“Bet on athleticism, because the misses don’t matter and the hits are massive. Take players you like, it’s not as much fun rooting for dickheads.”
Its a crap shoot, but its also very easy to game. I particularly love the shout-out to Slatz (based on the last 3 years he’s not been good, but he hasn’t been awful) and also that the certainty on display in the latter one seems to be from Slatz.
General Dbowl stuff
I asked who you thought would win the league this year. You picked two favourites: Chris (4) and Iran (3). And then threw in Goody and Benj with 1 vote each as contenders. Essentially, if you made the playoffs last year, you have a chance this year.
3 people said Iran would repeat at the top. 3 people also said Pete would repeat the bottom, following by 2 votes for Mike. Neil, Max, Slatz and Goody also got votes for this shame. So that means that everyone thought Ben and Stew would be solidly mid-table, getting votes in neither category.
7 out of 9 thought the draft was at about the right time, so pencil it in for this time next year folks. And there was equal disagreement about whether we should fucking pick already (4) or drag things out more (3), so you can pencil in next year’s to take around a week.
The most divisive question in the draft was how impressive Ian getting through the whole draft in 0 seconds. The average score was 2.4, but that was made up of 4 ratings of 1 and 4 ratings of 5. So maybe expect some people to prioritise time and some people to not. How insightful.
There wasn’t much consensus on whether we need comp picks: 3 said good riddance to them, 5 said Benj should be ashamed for forgetting them, and one person said a 4th round pick for whoever pisses off Slatz the most. Expect a rule change submission soon.
And speaking of rule changes: 7/9 said they were open to a rule about creating an exempt list to get rid of players we morally object to. And 4/9 said that they had a rule change to submit. So expect a couple of rule changes coming through soon.
Right, that was long. I should probably give this an edit. I’m not going to though.
