Author: Pete

Two-round Mock Draft

Mock Draft No Comments

[Commissioner note: this article was written before the Dez Bryant blockbuster trade that saw Dyna Hard picks transfer to the Dynasty of Sadness]

And so we enter the season of mock drafts, drafts, and draft grades.  I’ll start the speculation with the first post-NFL draft hot take – here are the players you should be drafting in the first two rounds:

 

1.01       Dynasty of Sadness

Despite their analytics department urging the Sadness to trade the pick for a massive haul, owner Geoffrey Manboob ejects them from the war room and sticks a broomhandle in the door. Ezekiel Elliot.

 

1.02        DynaForOne Firebirds

The Firebirds try to trade down and pick up Derrick Henry, but with no teams offering ‘value’, Neil is forced to go WR here. Laquon Treadwell.

 

1.03        East Flanders Dungeoneers

The Dungeoneers have similar RB worries, with potentially only two of their current RBs being on the 2017 roster. The Jay Gruden Siren Call proves too much however, and they draft Josh Doctson.

 

1.04        Dynasore Losers

The Losers’ natural antipathy to Drew Brees has them select Corey Coleman here; potentially a high-target steal at this draft position.

 

1.05        Champions of the Sun

With no needs at RB, the literal as well as figurative Champions select The Real Michael Thomas.

 

1.06        Dynasty of Sadness

Their need at RB having been sated for another year, Sadness make a less than ideal pick, in the New York Giants’ Sterling Shepherd. With OBJ already on the roster, a trade for the 1.05 with the Champions might make sense here.

 

1.07        Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Kelkowski are in a tight spot. It could be argued their need for receiver is greater, given the retirement of Megatron, but they go for their BPA in this position, Baltimore’s Kenneth Dixon.

 

1.08        Dyna Harder

With a surfeit of expensive RBs on the roster, Dyna Harder take Tyler Boyd. Pretty dull.

 

1.09        DynaForOne Firebirds

The Firebirds are delighted to scoop up Derrick Henry at this position.

 

1.10        Champions of the Sun

The Champions draft for value rather than need with this pick and select Devonte Booker, RB.

 

2.01        Dynasty of Sadness

The Sadness look carefully at their roster and enter risk mitigation mode – Will Fuller provides Jalen Strong insurance.

 

2.02        Dynasty of Sadness

Likewise, Matt Jones’ backup is selected here. Keith Marshall, RB.

 

2.03        East Flanders Dungeoneers

East Flanders put their fingers in their ears and hum loudly to drown out the sound of a small herd of running backs, and select Hunter Henry, TE.

 

2.04        Dynasore Losers

The Losers target the best RB still on the board, Paul Perkins.

 

2.05        DynaForOne Firebirds

Firebirds select the Oakland Raiders backup RB, and roll with DeAndre Washington.

 

2.06        Dynablaster Bombermen

Situation means he has slippped this far, but the Bombermen are delighted to snap up Leonte Caroo with their first pick.

 

2.07        Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

If it’s good enough for Bill….Kelkowski go with the New England utility man, Malcolm Mitchell.

 

2.08        Dyna Harder

Dyna Harder select The Other Mike Thomas.

 

2.09        Tamworth Two

Tamworth Two blow the draft wide open and start the run on defensive players by selecting Myles Jack.

 

2.10        Dyna Harder

Dyna Harder ignore the incipient run on defensive players and build depth in the Chicago backfield. Jordan Howard, RB.

Guest Previews 2015 – Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules by Pete Conaghan

Around The Grounds Free Agency League Business Previews Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Offseason Review

Like a woolly mammoth trapped in a tar pit, Kelkowski did very little to help their cause in the trade market, adding only two depth signings in Jason Witten and Doug Baldwin. Who knows, if it is the tar pit of the first round of the playoffs, maybe the team is happy with its situation and does not need to move farther. The bones of Andy Dalton look very white against the black, tarry ground.

Which is a roundabout way of asking, have Kelkowski done enough this offseason? In actual fact they may have pulled off the coup of the offseason, snaffling up Sam Bradford’s brittle body and putting it in their quarterback sack. With Bradford looking great in preseason, and as per Chip Kelly, there only being a 10% chance of him snapping something else, it looks like Kelkowski may prosper.

Added to that, the amazing transformation of Blake Bortles from mild-mannered grocery clerk to Superman [ed – Blake Bortles is The Jaguar] over the preseason (don’t laugh), should ensure Kelkowski don’t have to rely on Kaep’s brain or Romo’s back this season. As a bona fide superhero, Bortles should really have a nemesis. It’s a pity Zach Zenner isn’t a defensive end. In which case, the Champions would surely have taken him in the draft.

Kelkowski also had a really good draft, obtaining a three down back in TA Yellow, and what could be the team’s primary WR in Devin Funchess. Randy Gregory and Danny Shelton look to be very good defensive picks.

Where they will improve: All that being said, Kelkowski may not have done enough outside quarterback to see any immediate improvement, but with three top WRs (this includes a certain J. Maclin, who does not care about your fantasy team) they should be just fine.

Where they will regress: Yellow backs up an already-impressive running back corps which has some fragility issues. Foster is out until at least game 4, and DeMarco Murray should have a decreased workload this year, to prevent him being ground into dust, but it’s expected he will continue to run riot in Philadelphia even on reduced carries. Even if those two contribute less, Former Heisman Trophy etc etc is waiting in the wings. But it’s difficult to see the same production this year over the course of the season.

There are some aging pieces on defense, which the team should address.

2015 Prediction: 8-5, playoff final.

Guest Previews 2015 – Champions of the Sun by Pete Conaghan

Around The Grounds Free Agency League Business Previews Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

2014 Record: 6-7, missed playoffs.

Offseason Review

Wily old fox Max Cubberly went in a contrarian direction in the draft, going for defense early and often. You’re not going to win championships by doing the same thing as everyone else, so the Champions took Leonard Williams with the second pick of the third round to get a jump on building their ever-expanding stable of defensive ends. This was followed by another pick in the same round taking the injured Dante Fowler. As eyes narrowed in GM offices around the league, Cubberly told his secretary to immediately instigate a campaign to introduce the generic defensive lineman position, rather than have tackle and end. The work continues.

Marcel Dareus was added in Free Agency, which had DeSean Jackson going the other way, and this was offset by a long brewing trade with Tamworth in which the Champions acquired John Brown, who they hope will be a rising star.

LeGarrette Blount was signed on the eve of the new season, and with the release of Jonas Gray, should provide some semblance of reliable production in New England. A tactical signing, he should be good enough to single handedly win the Gameweek 6 matchup for the Champions, when NE play the Colts.

Where they will improve:  Most position groups did not get significantly better, with the exception of Quarterback. Ben Rothlisberger was scooped up in free agency, and signed to a team-friendly deal.  If he can produce at 2014 levels, and John Brown fulfils expectations,  the team will improve on offense. CJ Spiller’s move to New Orleans has improved the running back group immeasurably, and if he can stay healthy and Latavius Murray produce some measure of success on Oakland’s baseball dirt, then the team can kick on from 2014.

Khalil Mack is expected to make up for lost time, sack wise, and the addition of Dareus gives the Champions a rising number of star names on defense.

Where they will regress:  Will Mike Evans survive a sophomore slump? Will DeAndre Hopkins survive Brian Hoyer? Both receivers have shown they can overcome impossible quarterback odds and be successful, so we should expect that to continue this year.  But if they don’t, then we could see the notably more mercurial Percy Harvin and Allen Robinson coming into play. Which should also be fine, really.

2015 Prediction: 7-6, and missing the playoffs.  If everything goes right for the Champions, they should be a playoff team. However I am arbitrarily deciding that not everything will go right.

 

Guest Previews 2015 – Dynablaster Bombermen by Pete Conaghan

Around The Grounds Free Agency League Business Previews Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

2014 Record: 7-6, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Offseason Review

The Bombermen had a reasonable draft, which was elevated by trading up a spot to nab Melvin Gordon at #5 after Tamworth took Devante Parker and The Brees took Tevin Coleman in a Bortles-esqe pick backed by deep conviction.  But can Gordon produce with a brand new offensive line in SD (one player returning at his position) and a second-year OC pilloried for his lack of imagination?  A hundred draw plays on 2nd and long will tell the story.

Free Agency saw a lot of wheeling and dealing with the view of bolstering attack and defense, the Bombermen committing resources to linebacker and corner in a reversal of the league’s accepted wisdom. Conor Barwin is a 3-down LB who will thrive and contribute even if his sack total may have been an outlier last year. The top fantasy corner in the game, Vontae Davis, will be top five for years to come, maybe.

Putting together potentially three of the best RBBCs in the league was an impressive feat, and hopefully doesn’t lead to angst further down the line. All six RBs are expected to get plenty of touches.

Outgoing trades were mostly fringe players and should not harm the team.

Where they will improve:  The Bombermen will hope that they have the right mixture of youth and experience, welcoming Andre Johnson into the WR corps to help out Anquan Boldin and the younger guys. Depth should not be an issue, with most position groups augmented and steady backups acquired.

Where they will regress:  The team strengthened at almost all positions, so any regression in league position may be linked to other teams becoming stronger more quickly – can the Bombermen keep up with the arms race? The only warning flags that exist are performance related – could the young 2nd and 3rd year running backs regress? They are unproven over time but the team’s depth should be enough to overcome all but a blanket running back failure.

2015 Prediction: First round of playoffs. Bombermen are a solid team, but do they have the star power to break open a playoff game?

Dynabowl Rookie Draft versus ADP & IDP

League Business Power Rankings Rookie Draft No Comments

Now that the dust has settled on the Rookie Draft, is it possible to determine who performed best in that draft? Maybe.  I have a go at it below.

Methodology

There are no combined Offensive Player and IDP rookie draft rankings for Dynasty leagues that I can find, so I’ve gone to Dynasty League Football’s rankings for both.

I took the Rookie ADP (Average Draft Position) rankings from June 2015 (click on Rookies tab), and the DLF IDP rankings for the defensive rookies. Then I took the Dynabowl draft and ordered it by Offensive and Defensive picks, and compared the data, providing a score based on deviation from ADP/IDP ranking.

For example, Leonard Williams was the first defensive pick in the Dynabowl, but is the 9th rated rookie by IDP, so he would garner a score of -8 for that pick (massive reach). The higher the score, the better.  This methodology has many flaws, the biggest being the range of different scoring methods for IDP leagues (the top three rookies here are Linebackers), but provides a baseline in the absence of something better.

Other flaws

This is looking at the draft in a vacuum; no trades are assessed.

Some of the players do not appear in either set of data – should owners be penalised for that? They are not penalised here.

 

DynaHarder

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.01 1 1 Gurley, Todd STL RB (R) 2 -1
2.05 15 15 Mariota, Marcus TEN QB (R) 23 -8
2.10 20 20 Cobb, David TEN RB (R) 20 0
4.01 32 27 Lockett, Tyler SEA WR (R) 27 0
4.02 33 28 Langford, Jeremy CHI RB (R) 37 -9
4.11 42 32 McBride, Tre TEN WR (R) 36 -4
5.11 55 38 Bell, Kenny TBB WR (R) 33 5
6.01 56 39 Diggs, Stefon MIN WR (R) 34 5
7.01 66 Pinion, Bradley SFO PN (R) N/A
Total             -12

 

Nothing too egregious here, a slight reach for Mariota and Langford.

 

Bombermen

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.05 5 5 Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (R) 3 2
2.08 18 18 Johnson, David ARI RB(R) 18 0
3.03 24 23 Conley, Chris KCC WR (R) 26 -3
4.06 37 31 Hardy, Justin ATL WR (R) 31 0
4.13 44 11 Waynes, Trae MIN CB (R) N/A N/A
5.09 53 16 Ray, Shane DEN LB (R) 22 -6
6.02 57 18 Jarrett, Grady ATL DT (R) N/A N/A
6.04 59 20 Flowers, Trey NEP DE (R) N/A N/A
7.06 71 26 Ringo, Christian GBP DE (R) N/A N/A
Total             -7

Bombermen suffer for going after Cornerbacks, and other ungraded IDPs. This ranking ignores the big win in seizing Gordon at #5.

 

Dungeoneers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.02 2 2 Cooper, Amari OAK WR (R) 1 1
1.03 3 3 White, Kevin CHI WR (R) 4 -1
2.11 21 21 Smith, Devin NYJ WR (R) 24 -3
4.04 35 30 Davis, Mike SFO RB (R) 28 2
5.03 47 36 Greene, Rashad JAC WR (R) 40 -4
6.03 58 19 Dawson, Paul CIN LB (R) 13 6
Total             1

 

Tamworth

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.04 4 4 Parker, DeVante MIA WR (R) 5 -1
2.02 12 12 Johnson, Duke CLE RB (R) 15 -3
3.04 25 2 Beasley, Vic ATL DE (R) 5 -3
3.05 26 24 Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR (R) 30 -6
4.03 34 29 Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB (R) 32 -3
4.09 40 9 Collins, Landon NYG S (R) 8 1
6.06 61 22 Perryman, Denzel SDC LB (R) 6 16
6.07 62 40 Williams, Karlos BUF RB (R) N/A N/A
7.03 68 44 Waller, Darren BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
Total             1

 

Tamworth are bailed out by a big IDP difference on Denzel Perryman – without that it would be much, much worse. However, none of the individual picks reach that much, so a case could be made for Tamworth knowing their man and going after him aggressively.

 

Kelkowski

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.07 7 7 Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB (R) 7 0
2.07 17 17 Funchess, Devin CAR WR (R) 16 1
3.07 28 4 Anthony, Stephone NOS LB (R) 2 2
4.07 38 7 Gregory, Randy DAL DE (R) 10 -3
5.07 51 15 Shelton, Danny CLE DT (R) N/A N/A
7.07 72 46 Montgomery, Ty GBP WR(R) 41 5
Total             5

Nothing to see here – no huge variation from the ADP, with the exception of taking the nose tackle in the 5th.

 

Firebirds

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.01 11 11 Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR (R) 8 3
3.06 27 3 Kendricks, Eric MIN LB(R) 1 2
3.10 31 26 Allen, Javorius BAL RB (R) 22 4
4.10 41 10 Edwards, Mario OAK DE (R) 14 -4
5.10 54 17 Anderson, Henry IND DE (R) 17 0
7.10 75 47 Petty, Bryce NYJ QB (R) 46 1
Total             6

Middle of the pack for the next few guys..

 

 

Brees

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.06 6 6 Coleman, Tevin ATL RB(R) 11 -5
1.10 10 10 Perriman, Breshad BAL WR (R) 9 1
2.06 16 16 Dorsett, Phillip IND WR (R) 13 3
2.09 19 19 Williams, Maxx BAL TE(R) 19 0
4.05 36 6 Thompson, Shaq CAR LB(R) 7 -1
6.09 64 41 Grayson, Garrett NOS QB (R) N/A N/A
7.09 74 28 Hicks, Jordan PHI LB (R) 20 8
Total             6

 

Champions

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.04 14 14 Ajayi, Jay MIA RB (R) 14 0
3.02 23 1 Williams, Leonard NYJ DE (R) 9 -8
3.09 30 5 Fowler, Dante JAC DE (R) 4 1
5.02 46 35 Rawls, Thomas SEA RB (R) N/A N/A
5.05 49 13 McKinney, Benardrick HOU LB (R) 3 10
6.05 60 21 Kikaha, Hau’oli NOS LB (R) 16 5
6.1 65 42 Pruitt, MyCole MIN TE (R) N/A N/A
7.05 70 25 Bennett, Michael JAC DT (R) N/A N/A
Total             8

 

Losers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.08 8 8 Agholor, Nelson PHI WR (R) 6 2
2.03 13 13 Winston, Jameis TBB QB (R) 17 -4
3.08 29 25 Coates, Sammie PIT WR (R) 25 0
4.08 39 8 Odighizuwa, Owamagbe NYG DE (R) 11 -3
5.08 52 37 Walford, Clive OAK TE (R) 35 2
6.08 63 23 Ryan, Jake GBP LB (R) 15 8
7.08 73 27 Hunter, Danielle MIN DE (R) 23 4
Total             9

No picks from outside the equivalent ranking tables, a solid draft.

 

And the winner is….

Even without considering the Lacy Trade(TM), and the various other pieces picked up in the draft, The Dynasty of Sadness is the clear winner here, with a massive 27 points.

 

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.09 9 9 Abdullah, Ameer DET RB (R) 10 -1
3.01 22 22 Strong, Jaelen HOU WR (R) 12 10
4.12 43 33 Robinson, Josh IND RB(R) 29 4
5.01 45 34 Jones, Matt WAS RB (R) 21 13
5.04 48 12 Dupree, Bud PIT LB (R) 12 0
5.06 50 14 Armstead, Arik SFO DE(R) 19 -5
7.02 67 43 Carter, DeAndre BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
7.04 69 45 Zenner, Zach DET RB (R) 39 6
Total             27

 

Big value picks like Strong and Jones, and no major reaches, means that The People’s Republic has won the draft, at least by this dubious and highly suspect methodology. Well done Geoffrey.

 

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