Author: Commish

About Commish

I am the Commissioner of the DynaBowl Fantasy Football Dynasty League. What I say goes.

Your Draft Survey Results

It’s time to review the draft with Chris’s extra-special post-draft survey, one that we all really enjoyed. Chris didn’t enjoy it that much though as he’s not done the hard work part of typing these words out. I guess he just doesn’t really love the Dynabowl.

Anyway, first up we’ll have the average scores that people got for their drafts, then the comments, and finally we’ll have the details of the answers to the actual questions, featuring the only question you all really want to know the answer to – who has the best name…

Also, there will be a poll on MFL for the best player out of all those players voted best value.

One note, Max may or may not have responded. One respondent put their name down as “I might be Max” and in pretty much every textual question answered “I don’t know what happened in the draft.” I feel this is accurate so maybe it’s him, but I’m going to remove his ratings from everyone’s score for the draft.

So, who do we think had the best draft? Well, the raw points are worthless because we have a different amount of ratings for different people – a couple of people neglected to score a couple of other people, so it’s the average points that really count. So how did we stack up?

Well, Ben & Stew had the best draft, with a healthy gap back to Chris. There’s then a big drop off to Neil in third. I’m sure that this won’t be another false dawn.

Bringing up the rear are Benj in 8th, Slatz in 9th and James back in 10th. I’m sure James wasn’t penalised for flouting regulations during the season and this is a true view of the quality of his draft.

So here’s the table:

  Total PointsScorersAverage PointsMax ScoreMin Score
1Ben & Stew5987.3886
2Chris5077.1495
3Neil4986.1393
4Geoff4886.0071
5Pete4785.8893
6Max5295.7873
7Ian4285.2581
8Benj3684.5062
9Slatz3584.3882
10James2773.8652

Now, onto what you thought. Let’s start at the top of the list.

1. Ben & Stew

Solid

I liked a lot of their early picks. There may be the beginnings of a decent offense there? I didn’t recognise any of their later picks so they’re probably really good

Decent job with a lot of picks, and early picks

A few of my guys picked up but all around when I had them valued. Nice draft but not too many steals

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

A solid effort, 7 on 10

Solid use of plenty of early round picks

I could genuinely see pretty much every player being useful. Not sure you ever need to draft 3 safeties in one year though.

Stew’s influence is obvious as this looks like a decent class.

2. Chris

Not bad

Not much here to not like. I don’t love trading away so much for an old TE though, especially the Derwin James piece.

I’m unfamiliar with any of those players so probably very canny on Chris’s part

What’s the phrase I’ve continually heard this draft cycle? This was all “chalk”, which I think (based on context) means he basically did everything he should with each pick – he was very much aligned with consensus. I like the first few picks but wasn’t interested in anyone he took late really.

I have completed your blood survey. I don’t know what happened in the draft.

I really liked my draft. I got guys I liked at good value throughout, and managed to trade for an elite

TE at a price that wasn’t totally eye-watering. Would have liked a starting LB out of it, but otherwise I’m happy with it.

Main positives are the value with the first 2 picks and the trades where he ripped off Max

Solid but unspectacular

3. Neil

Some okay picks around where I valued then

No real surprises, I think Neil picked the guys he was supposed to pick, when they were supposed to be picked

Can’t complain much about the first 3 picks but feels like he lost his way after that

I really hated the Jaycee Horn pick, but otherwise I think this is a pretty good draft. Most of them have starting potential, and even Horn could be vaguely worth it.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

One of the best drafts, if we look past Neil’s CB obsession. I do not understand a) taking more when several are on the roster already or b) taking one as early as he took Horn.

I normally like Neil’s drafts. But Smith aside there’s a lot of guys who are just taken about where they should be who have question marks. I think that’s probably a reflection of a poor draft class.

A bit overdrafted across the board imo

Holy Moses, I’m Surtain we will Jaycee this team go Long

4. Geoff

A cornucopia of sadness

Solid early picks which given Mike picked them means they’re definitely going to break or be bad people

The draft rating is bearing in mind the draft capital he had. Wise to take Pitts first because at least half the league wanted him. Sermon is poor value but Lance is a good pick – arguably the best fantasy QB to go for in a 10 team league – QBs are plentiful so you want to draft one with the highest ceiling.

He must love to stay in Double-Trey Hotels. I like the Pitts and Waddle picks, two exciting prospects

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

A lot of reaches imo – Pitts, Lance, Waddle, Sermon, Collins. Mike usually is pretty active trading back, but he seems to have decided this year is the one he wouldn’t and just taken his guys where they came to him. But in reality he’s just taking everyone early.

I’m not a fan of Pitts at 1, but he was going in the top 3, so I guess if you want him you get him. I’d just rather have had Chase or Harris. I also think Sermon was a big reach at 11. But both guys have good upside and there’s a bunch of guys here that are similar. Feels like a lot of swings for the fences on boom/bust guys, but they seem like good swings.

A TE at one was a big shock to me but I know some others called it

Bog standard draft. Not too much ‘wow’ factor here

5. Pete

Efficient

Very few of my guys picked so this was a middling draft

Over half his draft picks I didn’t have ranked in my top 100

Some good value in the early rounds then went all d with exception of a random Shi Smith

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

An LB with the 13th pick takes some cahones

Getting Harris at 3 was very good for Pete. I think he was a bit early on Davis and Oweh, but they should be decent players. I feel like he took too many DEs, but don’t hate the players he took.

Pete: Strangely optimistic about this year’s picks.

Too many picks for not enough cap room.

6. Max

Let’s go Jags!

Some relatively solid picks and an amazing trade combined with an awful one

Hopefully set himself up at qb but has so many holes didn’t really fill them

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

This commenting stuff gets tricky after a few. Meh.

Pretty solid!

I liked his first 3 picks, although I think it ended up being that you could get a good DE way later, so Paye wasn’t great value. I know nothing about the two mid-round WRs.

I think Lawrence was taken too early and isn’t the best QB to go for in this draft. It’s a bit of a meh draft for me – fine, nothing special, not a disaster.

I think he did too much prep for this one

7. Ian

OMG

Very little value here

Made the most out of limited capital

He didn’t have a lot to work with, but I liked most of the picks. Picking a “worst value” was really difficult – even if Atwell is a bust, it’s not that much of a waste given where he was drafted. Most of the late round guys have a vague path towards being useful, so all in all a decent draft given the lack of picks.

He had nothing to work with and got very little for it.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

For having limited early picks, there is a lot to like

Seems fine

8. Benj

Fall in love with guys and massively overdraft them. Check.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

Could have just drafted 12 Mr Irrelevants

Another middling draft. Not much to get excited about but I like the Turner pick

Very different to my rankings, but being contrarian could work out well

I think I did ok. I got players I wanted and spammed the RB position in the hope that someone steps up. I was surprised that Brown was seen as such a reach – I’d seen plenty of mock drafts putting him around that area or within the next 4 or 5 picks (so not making it to me by my next pick) and of course we get no insight into who values which players where so I only really have a bunch of mocks to go on as to where he might fall to. Anyway, we’ll see.

Three a lot of darts at RB’s but no bullseye’s for me

I really liked Bolton, Bateman should be good, and Mitchell at his price was very good value. Brown was a bit of a reach but should be good. Of the picks after Mitchell though, I only liked Turner.

Steady away with limited early round picks

9. Slatz

Yes please

I don’t know anything about rhamondre Stevenson, so that colours this grade a bit. In a sense, I am grading my own ignorance.

I only value Nico Collins as a great pick here so that balances out some other poorer picks

I don’t like it at all. Lots of reaches for guys he obviously liked

Not my favourite draft, but too hard to say at this point if its good or bad

I like Collins, Hubbard and Hawkins but I don’t really fancy that this draft will off much long term. I’d be surprised if any get extended, punter aside of course.

I’m not a fan. Stevenson was a big reach, the WRs and RBs are all major dart throws on guys who mostly didn’t show much actual talent in college. He could easily have cut the entire class in 2 years.

I hate the Stevenson pick. I don’t understand taking him so early. Sure, the draft wasn’t great in depth but he’ll likely have 3 fantasy relevant games a year and you will never know which ones they will be.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

10. James

Amazing

Huge focus on d but probably reached for a lot of guys. Still he’s got who he wanted I imagine

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

I like the Micah pick, but too WR light to get a top rating

He didn’t have much to work with, and Parsons was a good pick. Basham could be decent. I didn’t like Grant, and everyone else could easily be off rosters within a couple of years.

I don’t really like any of these players. Would be interesting to be able to rate what he traded the first for as well though, to see if he got good value for picks not used

Tough sledding with no early picks. Draft could only be defensive in nature, and we all hate defensive players

Mainly late round picks so hard to really assess their long term value

I don’t think he picked a single player I was remotely considering. A waste of a draft. Also, the trade would have scored much higher if he’d used the pick on someone worthwhile.

Onwards to the data!

Now then, rather than in ranked order, just normal league order, starting with Pete, here are the answers to each of the questions. I’m not listing every answer, anyone with only one vote is omitted for at least some semblance of brevity. Oh, and there were 10 voters on every question. Well done everyone.

Pete’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

RB Najee Harris (3) – 6

LB Jamin Davis (13) – 2

Who represents the best value?

WR Kadarius Toney (29) – 4

DE Gregory Rousseau (43) – 3

RB Najee Harris (3) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

LB Jamin Davis (13) – 2

DE Jayson Oweh (23) – 2

WR D’Wayne Eskridge (33) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

WR Kadarius Toney (29) – 5

RB Najee Harris (3) – 2

None of them – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

CB Greg Newsome (118) – 6

WR Shi Smith (78) – 2

Ben & Stew’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

WR Ja’Marr Chase (2) – 9

QB Justin Fields (25) – 1 (alright, I said I wouldn’t do the single votes thing, but here, because there was only one, I thought you might like to see who checked in above Chase)

Who represents the best value?

WR Amon-Ra St Brown (32) – 2

WR Ja’Marr Chase (2) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

WR Rondale Moore (12) – 4

DE Jaelan Phillips (22) – 3

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

WR Rondale Moore (12) – 5

RB Travis Etiene (5) – 2

QB Justin Fields (25) – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

S Trevon Moehrig (77) – 5

None of them – 2

James’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 7

Who represents the best value?

DE Carlos Basham (53) – 3

LB Derrick barnes (68) – 2

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 2

RB Chris Evans (49) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

S Richie Grant (30) – 8

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

S Richie Grant (30) – 5

Neither of them – 3

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

RB Jermar Jefferson (84) – 4

None of them – 3

The score for the following trade:

GIVE Jonnu Smith, GET Pick 3.10 (used for Richie Grant) was… 4.375/10, after I removed the 10 that James gave himself. Someone else gave it a 10 though. Crazy.

Is it weird that Chris called Goody ‘James’ throughout?

Yes – 8

No – 2

Geoff’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

TE Kyle Pitts (1) – 7

WR Jaylen Waddle (6) – 3

Who represents the best value?

LB Zaven Collins (21) – 2

RB Trey Surman (11) – 2

WR Jaylen Waddle (6) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

TE Kyle Pitts (1) – 3

RB Trey Surmon (11) – 3

QB Trey Lance (19) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

RB Trey Surman (11) – 5

None of them – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

S Divine Deablo (116) – 4

CB Caleb Farley (86) – 2

WR Cornell Powell (76) – 2

None of them – 2

Slatz’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

WR Nico Collins (26) – 5

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 2

WR Anthony Schwartz (38) – 2

Who represents the best value?

WR Nico Collins (26) – 3

WR Anthony Schwartz (38) – 2

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 2

QB Davis Mills (111) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 8

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 9

WR Nico Collins (26) – 1

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

QB Davis Mills (111) – 3

P Pressley Harvin (121) – 2

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette (81) – 2

None of them – 2

Neil’s Draft

(Neil didn’t provide ratings for any of his picks so there are only 9 votes in play)

Who will be the best player?

WR Devonta Smith (4) – 6

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (24) – 2

Who represents the best value?

DE Joseph Ossai (56) – 3

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (24) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

CB Jaycee Horn (37) – 5

DT Christian Barmore (28) – 2

WR Devonta Smith (4) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

DT Christian Barmore (28) – 4

RB Michael Carter (14) – 4

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

CB Patrick Surtain (79) – 5

WR Simi Fehoko (109) – 3

Benj’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

WR Rashod Bateman (7) – 6

LB Nick Bolton (27) – 2

Who represents the best value?

RB Kylin Hill (59) – 2

RB Elijah Mitchell (57) – 2

DE Payton Turner (70) – 2

(As an aside, it’s quite nice to see 7 different players get picked here)

Who was the worst value pick?

WR Dyami Brown (17) – 5

WR Rashod Bateman (7) – 3

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

WR Rashod Bateman (7) – 4

WR Dyami Brown (17) – 3

None of them – 3

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

RB Jake Funk (82) – 5

None of them – 4

Max’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

QB Trevor Lawrence (10) – 7

Who represents the best value?

DE Kwity Paye (20) – 2

WR Terrace Marshall (9) – 2

S Andre Cisco (105) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

DE Kwity Paye (20) – 3

WR Terrace Marshall (9) – 2

QB Trevor Lawrence (10) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

None of them – 5

WR Terrace Marshall (9) – 4

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

S Andre Cisco (105) – 4

LB Baron Browning (95) – 3

The score for the following trade:

GIVE: Travis Kelce, Pick 4.10; GET: Henry Ruggs, Derwin James, Pick 1.09 (used on Terrace Marshall) was… 4.67/10

The score for the following trade:

GIVE: Pick 3.10; GET: Jonnu Smith was… 6.56/10

Ian’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

LB Pete Werner (35) – 4

TE Pat Friermuth (45) – 3

WR Tutu Atwell (39) – 2 (so someone other than Chris voted for him)

Who represents the best value?

LB Pete Werner (35) – 3

TE Pat Friermuth (45) – 3

RB Kenneth Gainwell (47) – 3

Who was the worst value pick?

WR Tutu Atwell (39) – 5

LB Pete Werner (35) – 3

TE Pat Friermuth (45) – 2

Ian had no picks in the first 3 rounds. He traded a 1st and 3rd (and potentially another 2nd or 3rd) for Allen Robinson. He also traded a 2nd for Zach Ertz. Which of these trades was horrifically bad?

TE Zach Ertz for a 2nd – 10

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

WR Dez Fitzpatrick (80) – 3

TE Brevin Jordan (90) – 2

Chris’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 5

WR Elijah Moore (16) – 4

Who represents the best value?

WR Elijah Moore (16) – 5

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 2

LB Chazz Surratt (60) – 2

DT Milton Williams (75) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

None of them – 7

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 3

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

TE Tommy Tremble (83) – 3

S Jevon Holland (93) – 3

WR Seth Williams (113) – 3

Who has the best name in the draft?

Racey McMath – 4

Divine Deablo – 4

Chuba Hubbard – 1

Amon-Ra St Brown – 1 (Maybe Max?)

Who gave the best pick comment?

“All aboard the Toney Train! Fat Controller: Dave Gettleman. Conductor: Jason Garrett. DRIVER: the Young Joka himself, Two Shoes Toney. Choo Choo!” (Pete on Kadarius Toney) – 5 votes

“Don’t Look Back in Hufanga.” (Ben and Stew on Hufanga Talanoa) – 2 votes

“Now I can cut Andy Dalton to make sure both my QBs have first names for last names.” (Max on Trevor Lawrence) – 2 votes (one of these votes was maybe from Max though)

“In the 2nd round, if you’re not hitting Paye-dirt, you may as well Kwity.” (Max on Kwity Paye) – 1 vote

Pete picked fastest, at 17 minutes per pick. What should his reward be?

200$ extra cap room

A weekend away at Neil’s for him to take over Neil’s 2022 draft

The nickname “Pistol Pete” for the season

He should be punished for not writing pick comments.

Slow clap

To work out if he was really fastest if auto picks are included

He gets the only playoff spot for Peter each season.

Something nice, like a better team

Bonus pick next year

A turducken

Neil picked slowest, at 6 hours per pick. What should his punishment be?

A chiduckey

He gets moved to Peter.

Bonus pick next year

Punishment? Should get an award for having to listen to the moaning!

He should have a baby to keep him awake all night

Not allowed to watch any Chiefs games this year; only Steelers

Being forced to have a really busy job and a new-born child. Oh, wait.

Banned from all future drafts

A weekend with Pete to help him with the 2022 draft

The nickname “Andrew Neil” for the season

The draft took 10 days. Is that…?

Too long – 6

About right – 3

Too short – 1 (this may have been Max)

Any last words?

Thoroughly enjoyable

Great draft, very enjoyable. Now that I’ve stopped watching the actual football, definitely the highlight of the year. Wait, did I say that out loud?

It feels like the worst draft class we’ve had so not many picks felt like good value

Really enjoyed my first rookie draft!

Nope

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

Who is Going to Win the 2018 Dynabowl? by Ian Kulkowski (Hint – it’s not me!)

The question everyone is talking about at the moment is who is going to win this year’s Dynabowl?  When Bendy’s poll first appeared on MFL I excitedly scanned through all of the rosters (I do love a good poll) and determined that Max & Mike seemed the strongest.  I plumped for Mike on the basis of Zeke, Hunt & Freeman at RB, and that was that, decision made and I could now move on with my life.

But no.  That was not the case.  My mind was now racing – have I made the right call?  Have I given enough consideration to Defense, or Special Teams for that matter?  I vowed that this unsubstantiated selection simply won’t do and I needed to look deeper in order to be truly happy with my selection.  And so here I’ll run you through my results and determine once and for all who will win the 2018 Dynabowl.  The results might just shock you to the core! (They won’t).

I wanted a simple method of deciding who had the strongest roster (and more importantly starting 22) so I decided to use positional rankings to determine who was strongest at each position and then use that to guess who is best overall.  Once I started I quickly realised this was a pretty pointless exercise but I’m not one to abandon these kind of fruitless ventures so I ploughed on.  I suppose it ultimately did give me and understanding of where everyone’s strengths and weaknesses lie, including my own, which may help in identifying potential trade opportunities.  Which is good especially seen as I’m such a big trader!  It also proved to be useful prep for the upcoming C’Bowl draft, which seen as my C’bowl record is currently second to none could be quite important.

Speaking of which I really need to improve my early round draft record in the C’Bowl.  Here’s my first two pick in each of the 5 years I’ve been part of the league –

Ian’s first chart

How fucking terrible is that!!  Only 2 finished top 10 at their position (one of whom is Gronk! Duh!) and only 2 more top 20!  I even picked Gurley when he was shit!  No wonder I never make the playoffs.  But look out this year as I’m now fully prepared to not repeat the mistakes I’ve made over and over for the last 5 years!

Where was I? Oh yes, Dynabowl rankings.  We’ll start with the Offense as they are much more easily and reliably ranked.  I used fantasypros consensus draft rankings to rank each position then used those classify each player as one of three categories –

  • stud – automatic plug in and play each week
  • starter – remainder of the top ranked players who would be a starter in our league, so top 10 QB’s, top 25 RB’s top 35 WR’s etc.
  • back up – double the number of starters

I’ve ignored everyone else who is rostered as they are either likely to development stashes or just guys you have a crush on and like to have around (hello 2016 Dynabowl winning QB El Jaguar!). So without any further ado let’s get into it…..

Quarterback

Ian’s second chart

I simply ranked teams QB’s by the ranks of their no.1 as we only need to start 1.  So T2 come out on top with A.A.Ron.  According to the rankings there are 3 teams with no starter quality QB’s – Sadness, Bombermen & Losers, with the Losers barely scraping even a back up in Derek Carr.  Although Bendy’s QB crew are all ranked 13-15 (nice grouping) you could easily see 1 of them breaking the top 10, or even 5.  There will certainly be some selection headaches in the weeks to come!

Check out Pete’s QB’s!!  Whooo boy he has the position nailed!!  Surely a trade opportunity here Pete?

Running Back

Ian’s third table

Max and Bendy both have 2 studs at this crucial position so look well set but they are bettered by Mike with a group boasting 3 studs plus one extra starter!  All those years of early picks are beginning to pay off!  Slatz scrapes into playoff contention here with 1 stud backed up by 2 highly ranked starters.

Things don’t look great for me and Bean here with no studs and a few lowly ranked starters.  Some attention is required here.  Meanwhile Chris’s reliance on No.1 ranked RB Gurley (where were you in 2016??) and his strong WR corps is stark as he has only one other RB ranked inside the top 50, and that’s Kenyan Drake!

Wide Receiver

This is Ian’s 4th table

Max & Chris grade highest on WR’s with 2 studs and 2 starters each.  I’ve put Max on top due to him having 2 in the top 4.  Pete is very close also with 2 studs and 2 starters – all those early picks paying off again?!

My deficiency at WR is clear to see with only one starter rostered.  Slatz is not too far ahead although his strategy of playing the long game with Josh Gordon could finally be about to pay off.

Tight End

Ian’s fifth table – how many of these do you think there are?

As with QB’s I’ve pretty much ranked TE’s by the no.1 on each roster as we mostly start only one.  Neil and Max have the only 2 studs which puts them top of the pile (although Neil currently can’t afford Gronk – watch this space). Pete’s young TE’s – whilst exiting – look a little weak here and slatz doesn’t own a single TE ranked in the top 20!

Offense Summary

Overall Max looks to have the strongest offence grading in the top 3 in each position.  A starting line-up of Brady, Bell, Cook, Ajayi, Hopkins, Julio, Tate, Sanders & Kelce should pile on the points week on week.

Mike isn’t far behind with the strongest group of RB’s and very good WR corps.  QB looks to be his weakness although a Rivers / Goff combo is more than capable of delivering.

Pete & Goody/Mat also boast strong offenses with minimal weaknesses which should enable them to push for the payoffs this year.

And what of Chris?  The Reigning champ is strong at WR but will it be enough to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere, especially RB after Gurley (Shakes fist at 2016 Gurley!)

At the other end of the scale my offense looks dire.  The halcyon days of regular playoff appearances appear to be long gone with a long rebuild process required.  Slatz is in a similar position although his RB’s are showing potential to develop into solid group.

Defence

So that’s the easy part done.  Defence is a bit of a different story as there aren’t really the ranks available that represent the depth and scoring in our league to do the same exercise.  After much research I decided the only way to do it was to come up with my own rankings!  To do this I’ve blended together a combination of FFtoday rankings (as these seems the most representative of Dynabowl scoring and have enough depth) and MFL’s own player projections to create a hybrid IDP ranking which definitely provides an undisputable view of who has the strongest D!  So 2 sets of bollocks rankings combined will surely provide a flawless outcome!  That’s the theory (*sigh).

So how does this play out…..

Defensive Tackle

The sixth one. And it’s not the last…

Malik Jackson is the no.1 ranked DT??! What??!  Well that ridicules my ranking system straight away.  What a waste of time!!!!  Seen as it puts me as top ranked I’m going to plough on with this pointless exercise regardless.  With Nose Tackle Damon Harrison also ranked as a starter (jesus what a load of shit) my strength at the position is secure.  I think I’m possibly doing T2 a bit of a disservice putting them below me as their 2 solid starters are clearly the best DT combo in the league.

Pete and Chris have work to do at this position with no DT’s ranked as starters on their roster.

Defensive End

Still going strong at 7 (seven)

DE is clearly Bendy’s position of strength with 2 studs backed up by another starter.  Max isn’t far behind as he also has 2 studs at the position.  Pete & Chris also look to have a good amount of depth at the top of the rankings although maybe some lineup headaches to come.  Once again I have the number ranked player at the position!

Neil sits at the bottom of the pile for DE’s with no starters on his roster and is the only team with a significant need at this positon.

Linebacker

He’s got to be running out of these soon, right?

Mike and Chris sit comfortably atop the LB rankings with 2 studs each plus at least 2 starters to round out their lineups each week.  My group comes next with 1 stud plus a whopping 6 further starts to choose from (trade anyone?!).

Everyone has starters at this position (hard not to when there’s 40 of them!) but Max , Bendy & Pete are the 3 squads without any studs so sit at the bottom of the pile.

Safety

Number Nine. Number Nine. Number Nine.

Now this where it starts to get silly.  Both the rankings and stat projections are pretty much completely pointless when it comes to DB’s so drawing any sort of conclusion from this isn’t much use!  Nevertheless here we are…..

Goody / Mat are locked in at Safety with 2 studs and a starter.  Chris and Pete also look to be in a nice position.

Neil and Slate sit at the bottom with Slate boasting only one guy raked as a backup.

Cornerback

It’s the last one! I promise. 10. 10 of them!

This is just a random set of numbers so I’m not even going to bother commenting.

Defense Summary

What to make of that load of Shit?

Goody / Mat, Chris and me seem to have the strongest overall units.  Goody / Mat have no real weak spots on D whilst Chris only has holes at DT and CB and we know how he loves to create work for Bendy by heavily streaming those positions.  I think some dodgy rankings have bumped me up the list a little!

Max grades in the bottom half at each position besides DE so his strong offence will have to work hard to make up for his deficiencies in the D.  Bendy is in a similar position although slightly above Max in most areas.

So who will win the 2018 Dynabowl???

To be hones after all that I’m none the wiser.  Probably more confused even!!  The way I see there’s a fairly clear split between who’s going to be challenging for the playoffs and who’s battling for that No.1 pick.  The winner as usual will probably be decided by Kickers & Punters.  So in no particular order –

Playoff contenders

  • East Flanders Dungeoneers – Strong on Offense with crazy QB’s depth, Not bad on D but LB and DT look to be issues.
  • Tamworth Two – No obvious are of weakness with a very balanced roster.
  • Dynasty of Sadness – Strong offence despite lack of obvious starter at QB and no major issues on D besides DE.
  • Champions of the Sun – Extremely strong offence but weak in several positions on D.
  • Dyna Hard – RB a real concern but defense looks strong besides DT & CB.

Fighting for No.1 Pick

  • Here Comes the Brees – a lack of real quality on offence will cost them, Defense looks solid.
  • Dynasore Losers – Still very much in rebuild mode, some signs of building nice young roster at RB & LB.
  • DynaForOne Firebirds – Neil’s roster is so thin there’s lots of work to do to make this a competitive squad. I still don’t know how he’s going to get under the cap!
  • Dynabalster Bombermen – A good offence for Bendy despite his selection headache at QB but Defense may not have enough.
  • Kelkowski Don’t Play by No Dyna Rules – Offense is truly awful in need of a complete rebuild! Not bad on D.

Fun Facts About The 2017 Chatterbowl

The following things are all facts of various kinds from the 2017 Chatterbowl, or Chatterbowl history to date.

  • Three of the previous Chatterbowl Winners scored more points in the final than the the two 2017 Finalists scored, put together (112)
  • Every team has now made the playoffs at least once. The last to join the list were Spunky Beans (Ian Kulkowski) and Martysaurus Sex (Jay Kelly)
  • Every score between 39 and 133 (inclusive) has now been scored at least once
  • The three GMs to have scored the most points are David Slater (8289 in 96 games), Ben Hendy (8280 in 95 games) and Dan Sayles (8276 in 96 games) – 13 points covering those top 3
  • The top 4 players for average points per games have not played all 6 seasons to date (Chris Braithwaite, Dan Smith, Pete Conaghan and James Goodson)
  • Dan Sayles has longest playoff streak (and it’s still active), making the playoffs every year from 2013 to 2017 (5)
  • Other top playoff teams (Total/Active Streak in brackets), Ben Hendy (5/4), David Slater (4/0), Mat Ward (4/4)
  • Mat Ward is the only person to have won 6 games against another GM and not lost to them (he is 6-0 vs Dan Sayles, which is quite remarkable given Sayles’ consistency)
  • No one else has more than 4 wins without also suffering a defeat against that GM
  • Ben Hendy has scored a century in the highest percentage of his matches (28.8%, 23/80 – data excludes 2012, which had 12 teams). Second is Ben Archer (28.1%, 9/32), and third are Max Cubberley and James Goodson (27.5%, 22/80)
  • Dan Smith has been on the receiving end of the most centuries (27.1%, 13/48), Jay Kelly is in second (26.3%, 21/80), while third is split between Ben Archer, Chris Braithwaite, Max Cubberley, Pete Conaghan and Phillip Malcolm (25.0%)
  • 2017 had the lowest scoring average of all seasons of the Chatterbowl to date
    • 2012 – 86.26 – 1 week averaging less than 80 points
    • 2013 – 85.34 – 4 weeks
    • 2014 – 83.13 – 4 weeks
    • 2015 – 84.40 – 2 weeks
    • 2016 – 83.08 – 4 weeks
    • 2017 – 78.85 – 12 weeks
  • The average score put up by Chatterbowl teams in every single week in 2017 was lower than the average score in that week in the combined average for the previous 5 years
    • I realise I have phrased this confusingly – take the average score that every team got in week one of the previous 5 seasons – the average in week one 2017 was less than this. The same goes for week two, week three, etc and so on.
  • The total number of centuries scored in 2017 was 18. This compares to 32 in 2013, 26 in 2014, 25 in 2015 and 28 in 2016.
  • Week 9 of 2017 was the first ever week in which no team registered a century
  • 3 teams failed to register a century in any week of the 2017 season (Chris Braithwaite, David Slater, Jamie Blair)
    • This has happened 3 times before – Phillip Malcolm 2013, Chris Braithwaite 2015, Chris Hill 2015
  • Teams that made the playoffs in 2017 outscored teams who didn’t make the playoffs 85.08 to 72.63, a difference of 12.45
    • The only bigger gap was in 2013 – 17.61 – 94.15 to 76.54
    • The third biggest gap on the list was 8.63 in 2015 (88.71 to 80.09)
  • The top 3 scorers in the 2017 Chatterbowl regular season were separated by 5 points – Mat Ward (1186), Ben Hendy (1185), Neil Hawke (1181). These are the 17th, 18th and 19th top Chatterbowl regular season points totals ever recorded.
    • Chris Braithwaite and David Slater hold all of the top 5 spots in that particular table
  • In the 2017 Chatterbowl Final, 6 of the Andover Anteaters failed to achieve double figures. This is the second time this has occurred (Flutie Flakes – 2013)
  • No player for the Andover Anteaters scored more than 17 points in the Chatterbowl final (Ben Roethlisberger). This is the lowest top-scoring player ever (previous lowest top scoring player, Allen Hurns & Texans DST, 22 points, Brett Favre’s Junk Calls, 2015 final)

Historical Chatterbowl Dominance Report

For the longest time I have been searching for a way to measure relative performance across the entire league, and for season against season. Fantasy football performance can’t be directly compared year one year because the source of the point scoring, the NFL, has so much variance. League trends mean points scoring, both in real life and in fantasy leagues, can vary significantly from one year to the next. One season an average team may score a century every other week, the next season an average team scores one only every 6 weeks. A team in the second of those two seasons may totally dominate the league, but their numbers look very ordinary compared to teams in the first season, so how do you compare them and determine the best?

Finally, I think I have a reliable system to compare teams year on year. Let me explain the maths…

In any given week there are 16 scores produced by the teams in the Chatterbowl. These obviously vary, sometimes hugely. The first step of this methodology is to calculate the standard deviation of this collection of 16 scores. Thanks to Microsoft Excel, this is as simple as using the formula =stdev([range of scores]). This will give you a figure which, typically over the past 6 seasons of the Chatterbowl, comes in somewhere between 15 and 25, but occasionally outside this range. The higher the number, the more variability there is across the 16 scores.

To explain, one standard deviation (what is calculated above), is the range above and below the mean that you would expect 68.2% of all scores within that range to fit into. Two standard deviations is used for a lot of statistical models because it equates to approximately 95% of a range, but we don’t need to do that for our purposes. Instead, we go onto step two…

Step two is to take the score of an individual team, subtract the average score that week from it, and then divide the result by the Standard Deviation calculated in step one, above.

This step essentially calculates how many standard deviations away from the mean the given team’s score was that week. If the standard deviation were exactly 20 and a team scored 20 more than the mean then the score calculated would be 1.00. However, if another team scored 10 below the mean, the score calculated would be -0.50. And so on.

In fact, here’s a real world example. In week 1 of the 2017 season the average score was 74.44, while the standard deviation was 20.97. Chris Hill scored lowest, with 43 points, which is 31.44 below the mean, so gives a score of -1.50, while the top score was by Steve Smith at 117. This is 42.56 above the mean and gives a score of 2.03.

Step three is to do this for every week of the season and then take an average of all the weeks. Finally, take the square root of this average and you have a final score or rating. Now, full disclosure here – I do not now recall the reason for doing this, though I am sure someone more statistically sound than I will be able to tell you where this element of the methodology comes from. Honestly though, there is a proper reason for doing this.

I have done this in three different ways – for the regular season, for the playoffs, and for the entire season as a whole, and have done this for each season the Chatterbowl has been running, since 2012. From this there are some interesting scores that have come out. In total there have been 92 seasons completed so far, and the top ten regular season scores are as follows:

 Rank GM & Year Regular Season Score
1 Chris Braithwaite 2014 1.036
2 Mat Ward 2017 0.827
3 Neil Hawke 2017 0.824
4 David Slater 2013 0.821
5 Chris Braithwaite 2013 0.811
6 Ben Hendy 2017 0.809
7 David Slater 2015 0.795
8 Jamie Blair 2015 0.735
9 Chris Braithwaite 2012 0.716
10 Dan Smith 2013 0.685

Some interesting things here:

  • Chris Braithwaite’s 2014 season was astonishingly consistent – during the regular season he was never below zero in his score. However, he truly shat the bed in the playoffs, scoring -0.73 in the first round.
  • None of these teams won the Chatterbowl
  • Three of the top 6 teams came from 2017 which was by far the worst scoring season so far. The average weekly score in 2017 was 78.85 – the previous worst was 83.08 in 2016 while the highest was 86.26 in 2012 (the single 12 team season, which would be expected to have a higher average points total)

The table below gives you the regular season performance of each Chatterbowl winner:

 Rank GM & Year Regular Season Score
11 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675
18 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.614
31 C – David Slater 2016 0.364
36 C – James Goodson 2017 0.348
38 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.295
49 C – Ben Hendy 2015 -0.191

The playoffs, unsurprisingly, tend to show slightly better performance from the eventual champions and, with them only having to take 3 games into account, are liable to higher scores overall.

 Rank GM & Year Playoffs Score
1 C – Ben Hendy 2015 1.360
2 C – Ben Hendy 2014 1.300
3 Chris Braithwaite 2012 1.215
4 Dan Smith 2013 1.210
5 Max Cubberley 2015 1.171
6 Jay Kelly 2014 1.021
7 C – David Slater 2016 1.012
8 Jay Kelly 2017 0.947
9 Dan Sayles 2013 0.926
10 Mat Ward 2017 0.924

Of those seasons, only Ben Hendy 2015 and Jay Kelly 2014 had regular season performance worse than zero. The full list of champions is below.

 Rank GM & Year Playoffs Score
1 C – Ben Hendy 2015 1.360
2 C – Ben Hendy 2014 1.300
7 C – David Slater 2016 1.012
11 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.923
12 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.920
22 C – James Goodson 2017 0.681

Next, overall performance for the full season – regular and playoff (including the split):

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
1 Chris Braithwaite 2014 1.036 -0.026 0.934
2 Mat Ward 2017 0.827 0.924 0.848
3 David Slater 2013 0.821 0.914 0.839
4 Chris Braithwaite 2012 0.716 1.215 0.832
5 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675 1.300 0.829
6 Neil Hawke 2017 0.824 0.816 0.822
7 Dan Smith 2013 0.685 1.210 0.810
8 David Slater 2015 0.795 0.638 0.768
9 Jamie Blair 2015 0.735 0.709 0.730
10 Chris Braithwaite 2013 0.811 -0.346 0.715

And for the Champions alone:

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
5 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675 1.300 0.829
12 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.614 0.920 0.681
19 C – Ben Hendy 2015 -0.191 1.360 0.563
23 C – David Slater 2016 0.364 1.012 0.548
28 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.295 0.923 0.480
33 C – James Goodson 2017 0.348 0.681 0.430

And finally, while I don’t want to dwell on it, I know you’ll all want to know about the 10 worst seasons ever (2013 was not a good year), so without comment, here they are:

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
83 Jay Kelly 2016 -0.775 0.118 -0.697
84 Neil Hawke 2015 -0.733 -0.541 -0.701
85 Jay Kelly 2013 -0.684 -0.970 -0.746
86 Chris Hill 2015 -0.801 -0.624 -0.771
87 Max Cubberley 2016 -0.672 -1.184 -0.794
88 Geoffrey Manboob 2013 -0.916 -0.538 -0.858
89 Philip Malcolm 2013 -0.824 -1.033 -0.867
90 Ben Hendy 2013 -0.850 -1.024 -0.885
91 Philip Malcolm 2014 -0.929 -0.959 -0.935
92 Jamie Blair 2017 -0.940 -1.286 -1.014

Oh, and this data is available here:Chatterbowl Database Download