Tag: stats

Salary Cap Based Bar Chart Race? You’ll wish you hadn’t asked…

This isn’t as good as the others. I am warning you. Heed my warning.

I mean, it’s fine. It’s not as fun or mesmeric as the others, and I don’t think there’s huge amounts of insight to be taken from it either, but hey ho.

Note that dead money is dead money carried over from previous seasons. In-season dead money is factored in as part of the spend on the particular phase of the game the cut player came from…

The same dataset can tell us how many different players have been employed by each team. This doesn’t account for how many times a player may have been picked up, dropped, and picked up again by the same team. Once the player has been on the roster (including practice squad) they count, no matter how long they stay there, or how often they bounce on and off.

The things I take away from this – the most successful teams are churning their rosters through a lot more different players than the less successful teams – either hoping to stumble across something that sticks, or getting one or two decent games out of someone before moving on.

And, looking at my own team, I don’t think I churned TE or DT much because I had Kittle and Andrews at TE so wasn’t looking for much more, and likewise had Donald at DT for 7 or 8 years. I’ve also not done badly at scoring from safeties either, without having big stars there necessarily, so maybe that explains the lack of churn there.

I am astounded that in 10 years the Dungeoneers have only had 11 kickers, despite needing to cover for bye weeks. Conversely, the Hard have had 92 cornerbacks – 30 more than the Champions, who’ve had the second most, and 70 [SEVENTY] more CBs than the Hurricanes have ever employed. That’s the Hurricanes who currently have 6 CBs on their roster. 92 cornerbacks is 9.2 new cornerbacks that haven’t been on the roster before – every year!!! Insanity.

A Bar Chart Race? Of All-Play Wins? Yes Please!

Three visualisations to celebrate 10 years of the Dynabowl. These are mesmeric, and hopefully give everyone their moment in the sun. And shade.

The first, is the total number of all play wins growing over time.

Then the all-time cumulative win percentage, so rather than volumes pushing the bars along, it’s just shift in that winning percentage. I realise this may feel grim for some of you…

But here’s where everyone shines at some point – the rolling season long all-play winning percentage. It’s 16 weeks until the league expanded the regular season, at which point it extends to rolling-17 weeks, when we hit week 17 of the 2021 season. Does everybody hit the top? Check it out…

What’s that? You want to know how long each team has spent in each position in that rolling 16-season long all-play win percentage chart thingy above? Seems a little weird, but OK…

And who was the Rolling-Season Long Form Table leader at the end of each season, and what was their all-play winning percentage compared to the team that actually won the title.

Kelkowski’s title in 2016 was a travesty, everywhere else it’s been pretty close.

Fun Facts About The 2017 Chatterbowl

The following things are all facts of various kinds from the 2017 Chatterbowl, or Chatterbowl history to date.

  • Three of the previous Chatterbowl Winners scored more points in the final than the the two 2017 Finalists scored, put together (112)
  • Every team has now made the playoffs at least once. The last to join the list were Spunky Beans (Ian Kulkowski) and Martysaurus Sex (Jay Kelly)
  • Every score between 39 and 133 (inclusive) has now been scored at least once
  • The three GMs to have scored the most points are David Slater (8289 in 96 games), Ben Hendy (8280 in 95 games) and Dan Sayles (8276 in 96 games) – 13 points covering those top 3
  • The top 4 players for average points per games have not played all 6 seasons to date (Chris Braithwaite, Dan Smith, Pete Conaghan and James Goodson)
  • Dan Sayles has longest playoff streak (and it’s still active), making the playoffs every year from 2013 to 2017 (5)
  • Other top playoff teams (Total/Active Streak in brackets), Ben Hendy (5/4), David Slater (4/0), Mat Ward (4/4)
  • Mat Ward is the only person to have won 6 games against another GM and not lost to them (he is 6-0 vs Dan Sayles, which is quite remarkable given Sayles’ consistency)
  • No one else has more than 4 wins without also suffering a defeat against that GM
  • Ben Hendy has scored a century in the highest percentage of his matches (28.8%, 23/80 – data excludes 2012, which had 12 teams). Second is Ben Archer (28.1%, 9/32), and third are Max Cubberley and James Goodson (27.5%, 22/80)
  • Dan Smith has been on the receiving end of the most centuries (27.1%, 13/48), Jay Kelly is in second (26.3%, 21/80), while third is split between Ben Archer, Chris Braithwaite, Max Cubberley, Pete Conaghan and Phillip Malcolm (25.0%)
  • 2017 had the lowest scoring average of all seasons of the Chatterbowl to date
    • 2012 – 86.26 – 1 week averaging less than 80 points
    • 2013 – 85.34 – 4 weeks
    • 2014 – 83.13 – 4 weeks
    • 2015 – 84.40 – 2 weeks
    • 2016 – 83.08 – 4 weeks
    • 2017 – 78.85 – 12 weeks
  • The average score put up by Chatterbowl teams in every single week in 2017 was lower than the average score in that week in the combined average for the previous 5 years
    • I realise I have phrased this confusingly – take the average score that every team got in week one of the previous 5 seasons – the average in week one 2017 was less than this. The same goes for week two, week three, etc and so on.
  • The total number of centuries scored in 2017 was 18. This compares to 32 in 2013, 26 in 2014, 25 in 2015 and 28 in 2016.
  • Week 9 of 2017 was the first ever week in which no team registered a century
  • 3 teams failed to register a century in any week of the 2017 season (Chris Braithwaite, David Slater, Jamie Blair)
    • This has happened 3 times before – Phillip Malcolm 2013, Chris Braithwaite 2015, Chris Hill 2015
  • Teams that made the playoffs in 2017 outscored teams who didn’t make the playoffs 85.08 to 72.63, a difference of 12.45
    • The only bigger gap was in 2013 – 17.61 – 94.15 to 76.54
    • The third biggest gap on the list was 8.63 in 2015 (88.71 to 80.09)
  • The top 3 scorers in the 2017 Chatterbowl regular season were separated by 5 points – Mat Ward (1186), Ben Hendy (1185), Neil Hawke (1181). These are the 17th, 18th and 19th top Chatterbowl regular season points totals ever recorded.
    • Chris Braithwaite and David Slater hold all of the top 5 spots in that particular table
  • In the 2017 Chatterbowl Final, 6 of the Andover Anteaters failed to achieve double figures. This is the second time this has occurred (Flutie Flakes – 2013)
  • No player for the Andover Anteaters scored more than 17 points in the Chatterbowl final (Ben Roethlisberger). This is the lowest top-scoring player ever (previous lowest top scoring player, Allen Hurns & Texans DST, 22 points, Brett Favre’s Junk Calls, 2015 final)

Historical Chatterbowl Dominance Report

For the longest time I have been searching for a way to measure relative performance across the entire league, and for season against season. Fantasy football performance can’t be directly compared year one year because the source of the point scoring, the NFL, has so much variance. League trends mean points scoring, both in real life and in fantasy leagues, can vary significantly from one year to the next. One season an average team may score a century every other week, the next season an average team scores one only every 6 weeks. A team in the second of those two seasons may totally dominate the league, but their numbers look very ordinary compared to teams in the first season, so how do you compare them and determine the best?

Finally, I think I have a reliable system to compare teams year on year. Let me explain the maths…

In any given week there are 16 scores produced by the teams in the Chatterbowl. These obviously vary, sometimes hugely. The first step of this methodology is to calculate the standard deviation of this collection of 16 scores. Thanks to Microsoft Excel, this is as simple as using the formula =stdev([range of scores]). This will give you a figure which, typically over the past 6 seasons of the Chatterbowl, comes in somewhere between 15 and 25, but occasionally outside this range. The higher the number, the more variability there is across the 16 scores.

To explain, one standard deviation (what is calculated above), is the range above and below the mean that you would expect 68.2% of all scores within that range to fit into. Two standard deviations is used for a lot of statistical models because it equates to approximately 95% of a range, but we don’t need to do that for our purposes. Instead, we go onto step two…

Step two is to take the score of an individual team, subtract the average score that week from it, and then divide the result by the Standard Deviation calculated in step one, above.

This step essentially calculates how many standard deviations away from the mean the given team’s score was that week. If the standard deviation were exactly 20 and a team scored 20 more than the mean then the score calculated would be 1.00. However, if another team scored 10 below the mean, the score calculated would be -0.50. And so on.

In fact, here’s a real world example. In week 1 of the 2017 season the average score was 74.44, while the standard deviation was 20.97. Chris Hill scored lowest, with 43 points, which is 31.44 below the mean, so gives a score of -1.50, while the top score was by Steve Smith at 117. This is 42.56 above the mean and gives a score of 2.03.

Step three is to do this for every week of the season and then take an average of all the weeks. Finally, take the square root of this average and you have a final score or rating. Now, full disclosure here – I do not now recall the reason for doing this, though I am sure someone more statistically sound than I will be able to tell you where this element of the methodology comes from. Honestly though, there is a proper reason for doing this.

I have done this in three different ways – for the regular season, for the playoffs, and for the entire season as a whole, and have done this for each season the Chatterbowl has been running, since 2012. From this there are some interesting scores that have come out. In total there have been 92 seasons completed so far, and the top ten regular season scores are as follows:

 Rank GM & Year Regular Season Score
1 Chris Braithwaite 2014 1.036
2 Mat Ward 2017 0.827
3 Neil Hawke 2017 0.824
4 David Slater 2013 0.821
5 Chris Braithwaite 2013 0.811
6 Ben Hendy 2017 0.809
7 David Slater 2015 0.795
8 Jamie Blair 2015 0.735
9 Chris Braithwaite 2012 0.716
10 Dan Smith 2013 0.685

Some interesting things here:

  • Chris Braithwaite’s 2014 season was astonishingly consistent – during the regular season he was never below zero in his score. However, he truly shat the bed in the playoffs, scoring -0.73 in the first round.
  • None of these teams won the Chatterbowl
  • Three of the top 6 teams came from 2017 which was by far the worst scoring season so far. The average weekly score in 2017 was 78.85 – the previous worst was 83.08 in 2016 while the highest was 86.26 in 2012 (the single 12 team season, which would be expected to have a higher average points total)

The table below gives you the regular season performance of each Chatterbowl winner:

 Rank GM & Year Regular Season Score
11 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675
18 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.614
31 C – David Slater 2016 0.364
36 C – James Goodson 2017 0.348
38 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.295
49 C – Ben Hendy 2015 -0.191

The playoffs, unsurprisingly, tend to show slightly better performance from the eventual champions and, with them only having to take 3 games into account, are liable to higher scores overall.

 Rank GM & Year Playoffs Score
1 C – Ben Hendy 2015 1.360
2 C – Ben Hendy 2014 1.300
3 Chris Braithwaite 2012 1.215
4 Dan Smith 2013 1.210
5 Max Cubberley 2015 1.171
6 Jay Kelly 2014 1.021
7 C – David Slater 2016 1.012
8 Jay Kelly 2017 0.947
9 Dan Sayles 2013 0.926
10 Mat Ward 2017 0.924

Of those seasons, only Ben Hendy 2015 and Jay Kelly 2014 had regular season performance worse than zero. The full list of champions is below.

 Rank GM & Year Playoffs Score
1 C – Ben Hendy 2015 1.360
2 C – Ben Hendy 2014 1.300
7 C – David Slater 2016 1.012
11 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.923
12 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.920
22 C – James Goodson 2017 0.681

Next, overall performance for the full season – regular and playoff (including the split):

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
1 Chris Braithwaite 2014 1.036 -0.026 0.934
2 Mat Ward 2017 0.827 0.924 0.848
3 David Slater 2013 0.821 0.914 0.839
4 Chris Braithwaite 2012 0.716 1.215 0.832
5 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675 1.300 0.829
6 Neil Hawke 2017 0.824 0.816 0.822
7 Dan Smith 2013 0.685 1.210 0.810
8 David Slater 2015 0.795 0.638 0.768
9 Jamie Blair 2015 0.735 0.709 0.730
10 Chris Braithwaite 2013 0.811 -0.346 0.715

And for the Champions alone:

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
5 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675 1.300 0.829
12 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.614 0.920 0.681
19 C – Ben Hendy 2015 -0.191 1.360 0.563
23 C – David Slater 2016 0.364 1.012 0.548
28 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.295 0.923 0.480
33 C – James Goodson 2017 0.348 0.681 0.430

And finally, while I don’t want to dwell on it, I know you’ll all want to know about the 10 worst seasons ever (2013 was not a good year), so without comment, here they are:

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
83 Jay Kelly 2016 -0.775 0.118 -0.697
84 Neil Hawke 2015 -0.733 -0.541 -0.701
85 Jay Kelly 2013 -0.684 -0.970 -0.746
86 Chris Hill 2015 -0.801 -0.624 -0.771
87 Max Cubberley 2016 -0.672 -1.184 -0.794
88 Geoffrey Manboob 2013 -0.916 -0.538 -0.858
89 Philip Malcolm 2013 -0.824 -1.033 -0.867
90 Ben Hendy 2013 -0.850 -1.024 -0.885
91 Philip Malcolm 2014 -0.929 -0.959 -0.935
92 Jamie Blair 2017 -0.940 -1.286 -1.014

Oh, and this data is available here:Chatterbowl Database Download

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Weeks 1-4

Like a bad 80s pop group the Stat Blats just keep coming back, regardless of whether they’re merely a shadow of their former selves.  This week I take a look at how the 10 Dynabowl teams have started out the season and which units are propping their teams up and which deserve to be put gently to sleep.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks, Receivers

Spearheaded by new draft pick Leonard Fournette and suprisingly-currently-healthy Carlos Hyde the Dungeoneers have the third highest average scoring running back unit in the Dynabowl at the moment.  Both of the aforementioned chuggers are in the top 10 at the position through 4 weeks but Pete Conaghan will be hoping that nothing happens to either of them as the likes of Terrance West and Chris Ivory don’t offer much backup.  As the season develops his reserve strength may improve if Alex Collins and Samaje Perine can make inroads into the starting jobs on their teams but if not those bye weeks are going to hit the Dungeoneers hard at this position.

Another area of strength for the Dungeoneers is their secondary as, again, they are third highest scorers at the position.  Given that the team only has 1 CB (Chris Harris) in the top 50 scorers at the position it will not surprise you to learn that most of this success has come from the tandem safety pairing of Karl Joseph (Oakland) and Kevin Byard (Tennessee) with Ha-Ha Clinton Dix providing able cover for injuries and bye weeks.  Really Pete should be looking to draft in another cornerback or two as with some improvement at this position he could have the best secondary in the Dbowl.

On the frowny-face side, we have the fact that the Flanders Quarterbacks are the lowest scoring unit, on average, in the league garnering a measly 13.32 points per game, nearly 4 points below the average.  Given that both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson are in the top 10 at the position however this really has to come down to head coaching decision as Pete put his faith in Cam Newton for the first two weeks, missing Wentz’ big games, and then went to Wentz for weeks 3 and 4, missing Newton and Watson’s big games.  This is a selection headache that Pete Conaghan will have every week going forward but the law of averages says he’s going to start guessing right at some point and that score should creep up.

Really, it’s no wonder that the Dungeoneers’ QBs are struggling with this shower to throw to though.  With only three WRs in the top 60 at the position (and one of those has been riding the pine) the Dungeoneers are the second worst team at this position a whopping 9 points below the average.  Amari Cooper has to answer for some of these problems as the much-vaunted Raiders’ receiver isn’t even in the top 60 wide receivers after four weeks.  With second year pro Josh Doctson failing to spark early on a lot is riding on the shoulders of Keenan Allen and Davante Adams and I’m sad to say that I can’t see this unit improving much in the coming weeks.

Offence Average: 94.24 points (7th)
Defence Average: 78.53 points (4th)
Overall Average: 172.76 points (7th)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Peter)

 

Here Comes The Brees

Forging Ahead: Defensive Line, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Receivers, Linebackers

The Brees’ production line of defensive tackle talent continues apace.  Unperturbed by the departure of Aaron Donald, Ben Archer has continued to dominate at the position with the only thing stopping him having the top two scoring tackles being an injury to Fletcher Cox that has limited his scoring to only 5th at the position.  The tandem of Cox and DeForest Buckner will, injury permitting, continue to rack up points for the rest of the year.  The DE position is the poor country cousin in this unit by comparison but Cameron Jordan is steady as ever, putting up DE1 numbers through 4 weeks, and Michael Bennett is sitting comfortably in the top 20 too.

A top pass defence is made up of a powerful rush and good players in the secondary and the Brees have the latter part of that locked down too having scored the second most points there so far this season, only just behind the Sadness in 1st.  Much like the Dungeoneers, however, this unit is severely unbalanced in favour of the safeties.  The Brees only have one cornerback in the top 30, Justin Bethel.  Given that over half of Bethel’s points came in week 1 when he wasn’t even on the roster this is not great performance.  Thank the Lord for their safeties then.  With 4 players in the top 21 the Brees have top production and strength in-depth enough here to cover bye weeks and injuries.  With Ronald Darby coming back in a few weeks the Brees should be set to keep producing at a high level in the secondary.  Looking at these pieces it’s small wonder the Brees have the best defence in the Dbowl at the moment.

Maybe they should look at converting some of those secondary players to receivers as it’s unlikely they could be much worse than the reprobates currently filling their roster out at the wide receiver position.  Until this week the injury to Allen Robinson and under-performance of Martavis Bryant meant that JJ Nelson was the only receiver in the top 40.  Ben Archer has not sat idly by through this crisis however and this week saw a move made to bring in an elite option in the shape of JJ’s big white brother, Jordy.  The steady WR1 production he will bring to the Brees can anchor them and if Bryant can work into the form they may yet turn out to be ok.  Particularly given the strong showing from their TEs so far this year where, even with Tyler Eifert’s injury problems, they have two guys in the top 10 as both Zach Ertz and Charles Clay have been target hogs for their teams.

The picture is not so rosy at linebacker where, even allowing for the fact that they have only started three players at the position in two of the weeks, the output has been poor.  This is really a story of a lack of elite options as the Brees have 3 guys in the top 40 and Shaq Thompson just outside that.  The dudes they have are doing ok but to pick up performance somebody needs to step up to the table and hit at least high LB2 levels.  With that a unit that is already at the top end of what the Dbowl has to offer could become a true runaway leader on that side of the ball.

Offence Average: 93.54 points (8th)
Defence Average: 85.06 points (1st)
Overall Average: 178.60 points (6th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Peter)

 

Tamworth Two

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Running Backs, Secondary

Slim pickings for T2 in what has been a disappointing start to the season for them.  With most of their units hovering around average the only thing to really pick out for comment in good terms is the Quarterbacks where they score 3.5 points more than average and are 3rd strongest amongst all Dbowlers.  Not much analysis to be done though, that’s just what happens when Aaron Rodgers is your QB.  Kirk Cousins provides strong backup at the position for bye week cover but T2 better hope Rodgers stays healthy or one of the few things that’s been going right for them this year may disappear.

To say that T2 have been struggling at the RB position seems odd.  On paper their attack of LeSean McCoy, Bilal Powell, Mike Gilislee and Duke Johnson looks strong but those players have just not performed consistently with none of them cracking the top 15 backs so far this year.  As a consequence T2 are actually 2nd lowest scoring at the position, 7 points per week behind the average and over 21 points per week behind the top unit.  This feels like a blip though, I fully expect this unit to have returned to the top half by the end of the year as NFL offences warm up, the Patriots stop getting into shootouts every week and the Jets realise that Bilal Powell is more or less their only weapon on offence.

Their problems at secondary may not correct themselves as automatically however.  Through 4 weeks the returning ability of Adoree Jackson makes him their only succesful option at CB and Landon Collins, a monster last season, has disappointed so far this year putting in only low S2 numbers.  The good news for T2 is that with scores of 11.5, 15.25, 22 and 28.18 the performance of their secondary is trending up as Goodson and Ward start to get their selections right and work that blind bidding for better options.  T2 are consistently amongst the best in the Dbowl at building defences and spotting strong performers early so I am confident this can be turned around.

Offence Average: 95.36 points (6th)
Defence Average: 77.03 points (6th)
Overall Average: 172.39 points (8th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Peter)

 

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Receivers (also Secondary but I’m fed up of writing about secondaries already)
Stuck in the Mud: Er… Special Teams?

My prediction for Dbowl champions ahead of the season, the Sadness have had a funny old start to the year.  They’ve scored very well being, on average, the 2nd highest points scorer in the competition yet they are 2-2 after 4 weeks.  Scoring of that kind of calibre should pay off over the course of 13 weeks though and I would be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.  Their running backs are really leading the charge for Mangboob’s team as they are the top scoring unit of their type in the league, a frankly silly 7 points better per week than anyone else and 14 points above the average.  Kareem Hunt’s superhuman breakout is a large part of this but with Ezekiel Elliott and Ameer Abdullah on the books too, the Sadness are not just a one-trick pony.  Assuming that Jacquizz Rodgers loses his starting job to Doug Martin the bye weeks could present a problem for Mangboob, however, as he only has Theo Riddick and Shane Vereen backing up his starters.  Having said that, there aren’t many teams in the league for whom bye weeks aren’t a problem though as the RB position is thin for a league playing three starters each week.

The Sadness actually have a complete offence though with their receivers lagging only slightly behind the backs, being the 2nd highest scoring unit so far this year, 8.5 points per week above the average.  This position is only really likely to improve too as Odell Beckham is currently outside the top 20 WRs due to injury and Eli (admittedly, only one of those is going to go away).  Stefon Diggs and Michael Thomas lead the line for the Sadness with the former being the #1 receiver so far this season (how’s that Dez Bryant trade looking, Chris?).  There is strength in-depth here too with Allen Hurns, Pierre Garcon and Ted Ginn all sitting behind the front 3 ready to contribute solid WR4 numbers.  At TE they appear comfortable too as, even with Jordan Reed’s disappointing start to the season, Delanie Walker is still a mid-tier TE1 able to happily cover the position off and put up good numbers.

They also have the best secondary.  Same story as everyone else here really.  Rubbish CBs and really good Safeties.  It’s almost like the CB position is impossible to predict, eh?

So where do the Sadness fall down then?  It’s difficult to pick out a problem area to be honest as, really, the issue is that too many of their other units (LB, D-line, QB) are just at or below average.  The only place they fail to score well is on special teams where the Sadness’ haul of 10.16 points per game is the worst in the league.  Despite both his kicker and punter being miles outside the top 20 at the position, Mangboob is keeping faith with both of them seemingly and this could be a problem as he’s currently giving away 4 points per week to the average team due to this oversight although at least he hasn’t lost any games by that margin so far this year.

Offence Average: 119.25 points (2nd)
Defence Average: 78.48 points (5th)
Overall Average: 197.72 points (2nd)
Record: 2-2 (3rd in Peter)

 

Dynasore Losers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Everything Else

Look, there’s not much point in going into the stats here.  David Slater’s Losers are in full rebuild mode here with their ageing or short contract players being traded away for picks so looking at the numbers tells us nothing.  Let’s instead take a look at the players that the Dynasore Losers have to anchor that rebuild around.

First off, they look set at Quarterback.  I don’t know what happened to Derek Carr in the last two weeks but, long-term, I think he’ll be a good fantasy Quarterback and Jameis Winston is no slouch either though Slater could probably do with Winston not cracking the top 7 this year to keep his renewal price down.  At any rate, there’s no immediate need at this position.

Similarly at RB the building blocks are in place for a decent unit.  Despite both being on the same team, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have very different roles and there’s no reason why both can’t be top 25 at their position at least in a year if the offence is built right.  Behind those two sit Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington who will, I think, in the next few weeks start to take more workload away from Marshawn Lynch who is starting to look his age after a bit of week 1 and 2 freshness.  Add Christian McCaffrey on top of that and this part of the team should be fine.

Offence Average: 82.53 points (10th)
Defence Average: 54.61 points (10th)
Overall Average: 137.14 points (10th)
Record: 0-4 (5th in Peter)

 

Champions of the Sun

Forging Ahead: Receivers, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line, Secondary

Apart from an inexplicably terrible week 1 performance the former Dbowl champions have looked strong so far this year, led by their receivers and linebackers, both of whom are the top scoring units at their position so far this year.  At WR, the Champions have 7 players in the top 40 and 4 in the top 20, showcasing impressive (and somewhat unexpected) strength in-depth that should see them able to cope with their bye weeks ok.  It would be fair to question whether the performances of the likes of Chris Hogan (TD dependent so far) and Sterling Shepard (a lack of OBJ) can continue but even with a bit of regression from a couple of players they should remain strong to season’s end.

By contrast, the linebacker performance is all about top end with three guys in the top 5 (Clowney, Houston and Mack) and McKinney in the top 20 but then only one more player anywhere in the top 50.  This performance is more likely to drop, both through injury and bye weeks and Clowney’s large number of big plays through 4 weeks.  Max Cubberley will hope to see more from the likes of Anthony Barr, Kiko Alonso and Jamie Collins in the coming weeks to bolster his options at the position.

Really, it’s a good job the linebackers are doing well because the D-line and the secondary have been a disappointment.  After signing Leonard Williams to a decent sized extension this off-season Cubberley will have been hoping the Jets DE could be an every week starter but he only has 6.5 points through 4 weeks.  Combined with Khalil Mack’s off-season re-positioning to LB, the Champions have been left in the lurch and this shows with an average weekly score of only 16.88, good for 9th in the league.  The bright spot for Cubberley is Dante Fowler’s emergence and he must now be an every week starter despite his comparatively low snap count.  The Champions felt confident at DT going into the season with Marcell Dareus, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins but so far only Collins has had any value and Dareus has recently been dropped.  This unit should improve going forward with the addition of Danielle Hunter and the emergence of Dante Fowler and Cubberley will hope it does to take some pressure off his LBs.

The same will be needed from the Champions’ secondary who have scored 20.19 points per game so far this year, 8th in the league and 2.5 points below average.  There are some mitigating factors here however with 3 of the Champions’ 8 starting CBs (PJ Williams, Orlando Scandrick, Josh Norman) so far this year unable to even complete the first half of their games.  The players who have seen out the games haven’t been great either though with none of Reshad Jones, Jahleel Addae or TJ Ward able to put up points at safety.  Cubberley will be hoping that the recently promoted Malik Hooker (#9 safety so far) and the added EJ Gaines and Jason McCourty can help the unit to kick on.

Offence Average: 121.68 points (1st)
Defence Average: 80.16 points (3rd)
Overall Average: 201.84 points (1st)
Record: 3-1 (3rd in Tim)

 

DynaForOne Firebirds

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks, Defensive Line, Special Teams
Stuck in the Mud: Secondary

Looking through the Firebirds stats it is apparent how unlucky they are to be 1-3 and bottom of Tim.  They have a number of units performing very well (as well as the ones I’ll cover their receivers are very good too) and even their lesser performing units are largely just below average rather than bad (with one exception).

The place to start here is at Quarterback where Neil Hawke has rolled out Russell Wilson every week except one and, despite the Seahawks’ struggles, done very well out of it.  After a slow start (which saw Wilson dropped for Big Phil Rivers) the diminutive QB has racked up the points with over 60 in the last two weeks, good enough for #3 at the position behind Tom Brady and Alex(!) Smith(!!!!).  With Rivers and Dak Prescott backing up Wilson, the Birds are set for a few years here.

Perhaps more surprising is the Firebirds’ performance at receiver where they rank 3rd behind only the Champions of the Sun and the Dynasty of Sadness.  Sure, you would expect a unit led by Julio Jones and Rob Gronkowski to be good but, whilst Gronk’s been Gronking, Jones is only the #31 WR so far.  The real star has been not-quite-dead-yet Larry Fitzgerald, who is lurking in the top 10 but beyond that Hawke’s receivers are doing fine but not spectacularly.  It all goes to show the difference that Gronkowski makes as a TE with his superiority at the position helping to take the burden away from everyone else.  A quick note here on Neil’s special teams unit who are the best in the league.  With the #2 kicker and the #6 punter the points are going on the board every week at a steady rate.  Take note Mangboob!

The real weakness in the Firebirds’ team is the secondary, the lowest scoring in the Dbowl and giving away 2 points to the secondary in 9th and 5.5 points to the average secondary.  The worst part of this is the Hawke actually has good players at the position.  Darius Slay and Desmond Trufant are the #3 and #16 CBs and Devin McCourty is the #16 safety.  True, he has no good second option at safety but perhaps this a case of too much tinkering.  If Hawke keeps it simple from now and plays his top-scoring guys every week there should be an improvement here.

 

Offence Average: 114.80 points (3rd)
Defence Average: 67.63 points (8th)
Overall Average: 182.43 points (5th)
Record: 1-3 (5th in Tim)

 

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Forging Ahead: Sorry lads…
Stuck in the Mud: Running backs, receivers, linebackers

Ooof, talk about first to worst.  Well, you can’t quite talk about that thanks to the Dynasore Losers epic deconstruction of what can be considered a “team” but the season is not going well for Kelkowski.  As such I have nothing positive to say.  Their D-line and Quarterbacks are both 4th in the league but every other unit is below average and, in the case of their running backs, worst in the league.  Scoring an incredible 18.13 points per week, Kelkowski’s ball-movers are giving away an almost unbelievable 14.5 points per game to the average Dbowl running attack.  Speaking as someone who owns both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the Cbowl I can see where a lot of this problem is coming from but Mark Ingram has not been doing the business either and behind those three is only the walking corpse of Chris Johnson and whatever a TJ Yeldon is.  Boys, I know that trading is for suckers but it may be time to start dusting off the fax machine and finding some way to address this problem.

Although, maybe that would just be a waste of time.  After all, Kelkowski’s receivers are only one place better, being 9th in the league and only .7 points per week ahead of the Dynasore Losers.  At least they’re only giving away 6 points per week to the average team here though so that’s an improvement right?  When your top four scoring receivers are Devin Funchess, Rishard Matthews, Travis Benjamin and Jaron Brown though you are going to have a problem.  To be fair to them Kelkowski have hit a perfect storm of under performance so far this year.  Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin and Terelle Pryor have all been major disappointments in one way or another and find themselves all outside the top 40 receivers.  At this point though, would anyone like to bet that they will improve?  I’m not sure I would.

This roast now concludes with a look at Kelkowski’s linebackers, traditionally a strong unit for them.  Although bad (4th worst in the league and giving 6 points away to the average) this area is not as disastrous as the two above.  Kwon Alexander and Dont’a Hightower has been missing most of the year and that’s two big names to be without.  Behind them both Terrell Suggs and recently acquired Nick Vigil are performing at LB2 levels and there are a cadre of guys lower than that who have been ok but nothing more.  Really the team is suffering from a lack of high impact players at the position and this should get better when Alexander and Hightower are back and now Nick Vigil’s apparent 10-tackle-floor can kick in.

Offence Average: 85.20 points (9th)
Defence Average: 65.66 points (9th)
Overall Average: 150.86 points (9th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Tim)

 

Live Free or Dyna Hard

Forging Ahead: Running backs, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line

In many ways, DynaHard are the anti-Tamworth Two in that their success comes this year from being at or just above average in most things and not having any real weaknesses.  One of their best units though has been their running backs who are the second highest scoring (albeit still 7 points a week behind Mangboob’s powerhouses).  The resurgent Todd Gurley (#2) leads the way and Chris Braithwaite has a guy in every tier from there down with Ty Montgomery performing as an RB2, Frank Gore as an RB3 and Wendell Smallwood as an RB4.  To cover his bye weeks Chris is going to have to hope that wily vets Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch still have something in the tank but, fitness allowing, Gurley and A. N. Other running back should really be enough to keep up a high level of performance.

Although not performing as well as his running backs, Braithwaite’s linebackers are 3rd in the league and best of the rest behind the elite performances of the Champions of the Sun and the Bombermen (see below).  CJ Mosley, Ryan Kerrigan and Von Miller are all in the top 10 with TJ Watt and Demario Davis also in the top 21.  Continuing to look down the list we find Jatavis Brown and Thomas Davis both putting up decent numbers for bye week cover and this unit should continue at this level, if not improve, to season’s end.  If anything I would expect to see them close the gap on the top 2 rather than sink down into the pack.

As mentioned, there’s not much that DynaHard are bad at but Braithwaite will be disappointed in his defensive line so far this year.  A lot of resources are tied up in JJ Watt and, for understandable reasons, he has not looked anything like his former self so far this year.  That puts the DE production on the shoulders of Ziggy Ansah, Olivier Vernon and rookie Solomon Thomas.  Vernon (in my experience) has always been a slow starter but the signs look good that Ansah is close to a return to form so I expect to see this unit improve from their current 3rd worst position towards the middle of the pack as we go through the year.  There could be problems at DT however where Chris has all his eggs in a Timmy Jernigan-shaped basket, being literally his only player at the position.  I’m sure DynaHard have plans to address this either through trade or free agency but with Jernigan questionable for this week’s game sooner would be better than later!

Offence Average: 112.27 points (4th)
Defence Average: 76.20 points (7th)
Overall Average: 188.47 points (3rd)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Tim)

 

Dynablaster Bombermen

Forging Ahead: Special Teams, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks

On offence this season the Bombermen have been pulled through by their special teams performance as the rest of their unit has been patchy.  Sam Koch is the #3 punter and Will Lutz is the #6 kicker.  Apparently #6 isn’t good enough for The Commish though because Lutz finds himself on the scrapheap, shunted in favour of the mighty Legatron, the #1 kicker in all of football.  Could the league’s 2nd best special teams unit just have made the move to push them ahead of the Sadness into first place?

On defence it’s the Bombermen’s linebackers who are carrying the team however.  Similarly to the Champions of the Sun’s elite unit however there is a lot resting on Ryan Shazier and Chandler Jones here (the #3 and #4 linebackers).  Outside those 2 only have two more LBs in the top 50 (Zach Brown at 33 and Sean Lee at 49.  The Bombermen need to hope that Shazier and Jones can stay fit (something the former has not been able to do historically) and that rookies Reuben Foster and Carl Lawson can build on the promise they’ve shown so far to become solid contributors as the season goes forward.

Maybe I was wrong.  Maybe the Bombermen are the anti-Tamworth Two because the secret of their success this year seems to be not being worse than 6th in the league at anything and then letting your elite special teams and linebackers carry you.  I’m going to criticize their Quarterbacks a bit though because although they are only 7th in the league they are giving away 3.5 points on the average which is reasonably significant.  It’s hard to be too critical though, you would have thought that going into the season with Matt Ryan as your #1 and Tyrod Taylor as your backup would’ve been fine but so far Matt Ryan is giving you a return more like his 2015 version than the Superbowl one.  Hopefully for the Bombermen he’ll turn that around but in the short-term it may actually be worth looking to Tyrod Taylor’s running floor until he does.

Offence Average: 101.70 points (5th)
Defence Average: 82.36 points (2nd)
Overall Average: 184.06 points (4th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Tim)

Peter vs. Tim

The last thing to do before I leave you (probably for another year) is a quick look at how Peter and Tim are doing overall.  Maybe this is the year the gap closes?  The year that Peter can finally match or even surpass Tim?

1 2 3 4
Peter 168.18 171.59 155.381 191.744
Tim 170.784 192.183 194.132 169.023
Winner Tim Tim Tim Peter
Margin 2.60 20.59 38.75 -22.72

Not likely, mate.  TIM FOR LIFE!