Tag: Pete

Dynabowl Rookie Draft versus ADP & IDP

Now that the dust has settled on the Rookie Draft, is it possible to determine who performed best in that draft? Maybe.  I have a go at it below.

Methodology

There are no combined Offensive Player and IDP rookie draft rankings for Dynasty leagues that I can find, so I’ve gone to Dynasty League Football’s rankings for both.

I took the Rookie ADP (Average Draft Position) rankings from June 2015 (click on Rookies tab), and the DLF IDP rankings for the defensive rookies. Then I took the Dynabowl draft and ordered it by Offensive and Defensive picks, and compared the data, providing a score based on deviation from ADP/IDP ranking.

For example, Leonard Williams was the first defensive pick in the Dynabowl, but is the 9th rated rookie by IDP, so he would garner a score of -8 for that pick (massive reach). The higher the score, the better.  This methodology has many flaws, the biggest being the range of different scoring methods for IDP leagues (the top three rookies here are Linebackers), but provides a baseline in the absence of something better.

Other flaws

This is looking at the draft in a vacuum; no trades are assessed.

Some of the players do not appear in either set of data – should owners be penalised for that? They are not penalised here.

 

DynaHarder

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.01 1 1 Gurley, Todd STL RB (R) 2 -1
2.05 15 15 Mariota, Marcus TEN QB (R) 23 -8
2.10 20 20 Cobb, David TEN RB (R) 20 0
4.01 32 27 Lockett, Tyler SEA WR (R) 27 0
4.02 33 28 Langford, Jeremy CHI RB (R) 37 -9
4.11 42 32 McBride, Tre TEN WR (R) 36 -4
5.11 55 38 Bell, Kenny TBB WR (R) 33 5
6.01 56 39 Diggs, Stefon MIN WR (R) 34 5
7.01 66 Pinion, Bradley SFO PN (R) N/A
Total             -12

 

Nothing too egregious here, a slight reach for Mariota and Langford.

 

Bombermen

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.05 5 5 Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (R) 3 2
2.08 18 18 Johnson, David ARI RB(R) 18 0
3.03 24 23 Conley, Chris KCC WR (R) 26 -3
4.06 37 31 Hardy, Justin ATL WR (R) 31 0
4.13 44 11 Waynes, Trae MIN CB (R) N/A N/A
5.09 53 16 Ray, Shane DEN LB (R) 22 -6
6.02 57 18 Jarrett, Grady ATL DT (R) N/A N/A
6.04 59 20 Flowers, Trey NEP DE (R) N/A N/A
7.06 71 26 Ringo, Christian GBP DE (R) N/A N/A
Total             -7

Bombermen suffer for going after Cornerbacks, and other ungraded IDPs. This ranking ignores the big win in seizing Gordon at #5.

 

Dungeoneers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.02 2 2 Cooper, Amari OAK WR (R) 1 1
1.03 3 3 White, Kevin CHI WR (R) 4 -1
2.11 21 21 Smith, Devin NYJ WR (R) 24 -3
4.04 35 30 Davis, Mike SFO RB (R) 28 2
5.03 47 36 Greene, Rashad JAC WR (R) 40 -4
6.03 58 19 Dawson, Paul CIN LB (R) 13 6
Total             1

 

Tamworth

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.04 4 4 Parker, DeVante MIA WR (R) 5 -1
2.02 12 12 Johnson, Duke CLE RB (R) 15 -3
3.04 25 2 Beasley, Vic ATL DE (R) 5 -3
3.05 26 24 Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR (R) 30 -6
4.03 34 29 Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB (R) 32 -3
4.09 40 9 Collins, Landon NYG S (R) 8 1
6.06 61 22 Perryman, Denzel SDC LB (R) 6 16
6.07 62 40 Williams, Karlos BUF RB (R) N/A N/A
7.03 68 44 Waller, Darren BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
Total             1

 

Tamworth are bailed out by a big IDP difference on Denzel Perryman – without that it would be much, much worse. However, none of the individual picks reach that much, so a case could be made for Tamworth knowing their man and going after him aggressively.

 

Kelkowski

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.07 7 7 Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB (R) 7 0
2.07 17 17 Funchess, Devin CAR WR (R) 16 1
3.07 28 4 Anthony, Stephone NOS LB (R) 2 2
4.07 38 7 Gregory, Randy DAL DE (R) 10 -3
5.07 51 15 Shelton, Danny CLE DT (R) N/A N/A
7.07 72 46 Montgomery, Ty GBP WR(R) 41 5
Total             5

Nothing to see here – no huge variation from the ADP, with the exception of taking the nose tackle in the 5th.

 

Firebirds

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.01 11 11 Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR (R) 8 3
3.06 27 3 Kendricks, Eric MIN LB(R) 1 2
3.10 31 26 Allen, Javorius BAL RB (R) 22 4
4.10 41 10 Edwards, Mario OAK DE (R) 14 -4
5.10 54 17 Anderson, Henry IND DE (R) 17 0
7.10 75 47 Petty, Bryce NYJ QB (R) 46 1
Total             6

Middle of the pack for the next few guys..

 

 

Brees

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.06 6 6 Coleman, Tevin ATL RB(R) 11 -5
1.10 10 10 Perriman, Breshad BAL WR (R) 9 1
2.06 16 16 Dorsett, Phillip IND WR (R) 13 3
2.09 19 19 Williams, Maxx BAL TE(R) 19 0
4.05 36 6 Thompson, Shaq CAR LB(R) 7 -1
6.09 64 41 Grayson, Garrett NOS QB (R) N/A N/A
7.09 74 28 Hicks, Jordan PHI LB (R) 20 8
Total             6

 

Champions

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.04 14 14 Ajayi, Jay MIA RB (R) 14 0
3.02 23 1 Williams, Leonard NYJ DE (R) 9 -8
3.09 30 5 Fowler, Dante JAC DE (R) 4 1
5.02 46 35 Rawls, Thomas SEA RB (R) N/A N/A
5.05 49 13 McKinney, Benardrick HOU LB (R) 3 10
6.05 60 21 Kikaha, Hau’oli NOS LB (R) 16 5
6.1 65 42 Pruitt, MyCole MIN TE (R) N/A N/A
7.05 70 25 Bennett, Michael JAC DT (R) N/A N/A
Total             8

 

Losers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.08 8 8 Agholor, Nelson PHI WR (R) 6 2
2.03 13 13 Winston, Jameis TBB QB (R) 17 -4
3.08 29 25 Coates, Sammie PIT WR (R) 25 0
4.08 39 8 Odighizuwa, Owamagbe NYG DE (R) 11 -3
5.08 52 37 Walford, Clive OAK TE (R) 35 2
6.08 63 23 Ryan, Jake GBP LB (R) 15 8
7.08 73 27 Hunter, Danielle MIN DE (R) 23 4
Total             9

No picks from outside the equivalent ranking tables, a solid draft.

 

And the winner is….

Even without considering the Lacy Trade(TM), and the various other pieces picked up in the draft, The Dynasty of Sadness is the clear winner here, with a massive 27 points.

 

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.09 9 9 Abdullah, Ameer DET RB (R) 10 -1
3.01 22 22 Strong, Jaelen HOU WR (R) 12 10
4.12 43 33 Robinson, Josh IND RB(R) 29 4
5.01 45 34 Jones, Matt WAS RB (R) 21 13
5.04 48 12 Dupree, Bud PIT LB (R) 12 0
5.06 50 14 Armstead, Arik SFO DE(R) 19 -5
7.02 67 43 Carter, DeAndre BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
7.04 69 45 Zenner, Zach DET RB (R) 39 6
Total             27

 

Big value picks like Strong and Jones, and no major reaches, means that The People’s Republic has won the draft, at least by this dubious and highly suspect methodology. Well done Geoffrey.

 

Replacement Level: Week 7

After my second resounding Manboob victory of the season, Geoffrey has seen fit to leave me the replacements. So let’s start by “thanking” him with a review of how he did do and could have done:

    Proj Actual FA Rank Best Best Points
QB Stanton 4.28 0 7= Mike Glennon, TB 18.56
RB Rodgers 5.15 0.9 18 Fozzy Whittaker, CAR 11.6
RB Ogbannaya 3.5 0 28= Roy Helu, WAS 6.6
RB Robinson 2.825 3.6 7
WR Johnson, S 2.9 5.3 15 Andre Holmes, OAK 24.1
WR Wright 3.9 3.8 18 Robert Woods, BUF 15.8
WR Ginn Jr 2.2 2.375 25 Brandon Lloyd, SFO 14
WR LaFell 4.6 21.7 2* Chris Hogan, BUF 13.2
TE Carlson 4.4 1.4 14 James Casey, PHI 8.6
TE Lance Kendricks, STL 8.2
PK Cantazaro 6.4 10.45 1* Mike Nugent, CIN 9.7
PN Ryan 0 5.675 10 Steve Weatherford, NYG 12.425
 
DE Ngata 2 1.25 25= Vinny Curry, PHI 15
DE Gholston 1 4.5 10 George Johnson, DET 13.75
DT Guion 0.5 3 13= Evander Hood, JAC 13
LB Robinson 2.5 5 20* Tahir Whitehead, DET 26.95
LB Sheard 0 1 54= Dan Skuta, SFO 23.5
LB Durant 1.5 4 26= Justin Tuggle, HOU 16.05
LB Graham 1 19 3* Alex Okafor, ARI 16
S Ishmael 4 3 14= Rashad Johnson, ARI 38.8
S Jefferson 5.65 1 26= Dontae Johnson, SFO 20
CB Cox 0 6.25 12* Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 22.65
CB Arrington 1.5 1.25 43* Buster Skrine, CLE 19.5
 
  59.805 104.45 367.985
 

 

 

Much like Bill Belichick Mangboob is a coach / GM, and much like Bill he spends a lot of time being grumpy in hoodies. This is not where the similarity ends, as both Bill and Manboob show a knack for coaching the shit out of his players, getting far more than the traditional 110% out of his players with an impressive 175% improvement. Unfortunately, also like Bill, Manboob is a terrible GM specialising in identifying players who have an awful lot of shit to be coached out, and the 104 he scored, while impressive against the predictions, was a long way short of the near 370 possible.

Overall Manboob finds himself coaching the Replacements to their second lowest score, and didn’t manage to beat a single proper team, leaving Pete’s week one effort still the best the Replacements have managed, and the only time the replacements have beaten a DynaBowl franchise.

    Proj Actual CtSOoT* Score Teams beaten
Week 1 Pete Conaghan 89.385 150.74 1.69 3
Week 2

Move along nothing to see here

Week 3 Ben Hendy 89.795 126.64 1.41 0
Week 4 James Goodson 52.4 97 1.85 0
Week 5 Iran Kulkowski 79.2 144.535 1.82 0
Week 6 Geoffrey Manboob 59.805 104.45 1.75 0
Week 7 David Slater 72.025

Anyway, enough trashing Manboob (power-ranked 10th out of 10 right now), it’s time to introduce Week 7’s replacements.*Coaching the Shit Out of Them

Ladies and gentlemen (well, just gentlemen) please could we have a tepid and disinterested round of applause for your offence!

Starting Quarterback – Charlie Whitehurst (Ten): Ranked 4th – Projected 9 points

This really comes down to a choice between 4 potential starters – Orton, Fitzpatrick, Genome Smith and Whitehurst.

Half man, half beard... ALL BEARD
Half man, half beard… ALL BEARD

Fitz may look like he’s eating a squirrel through his helmet grill, but he’s likely to be a liability against a Pittsburgh defence who have held opposing QBs to very low scores (joint 4th best in fantasy against QBs), and sadly doesn’t score any points for his squirrel-munching antics.

Orton is up against an even more effective Minnesota defence – 4th best in fantasy against QBs despite facing Matts Ryan and Stafford, Tom Fucking Brady, Adam Rodgers and Brees in 5 of their 6 weeks.

Genome, is facing the Patriots – better than both Pittsburgh and Minnesota in terms of destroying a QB’s fantasy totals – and he is a truly fucking terrible QB.

Seen here in court, yesterday
Seen here in court, yesterday

This leaves Whitehurst, who is playing Washington’s incredibly forgiving defence, a defence so bad it made King Cunt Nick Foles looks good. Also Charlie has magnificent hair. The only real risk is that Jake Locker is fit enough to play Sunday, but even if he is, it’s likely Whitehurst gets 2 quarters and he could still outscore the others in that time.

Starting Running Backs –

Roy Helu (Was): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.6pts

Jonathan Stewart (Car): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5.5pts

To say the running back options are thin would be an understatement. They’re anorexic, a graveyard of terrible selections.

Helu, who sees regular change of pace work in the Washington backfield is a steady option, and with a TD could put up a decent score.

The chaos in Carolina’s backfield means that the fit again Stewart (last week’s running back of the week in Carolina, Fozzy Whittaker, is questionable as is the week before’s Darrin Reaves) is likely to start and see the majority of carries when Cam doesn’t decide to do it all himself.

Starting Wide Receivers –

Andre Holmes (Oak): Ranked 3rd – Projected 5.4pts

Brandon Lloyd (SF): Ranked 27th – Projected 2.2pts

Jerricho Cotchery (Car): Ranked 4th – Projected 5.3pts

Robert Woods (Buf): Ranked 6th – Projected 4.525pts

Holmes is a no-brainer, and I’d be surprised if he were available for next week’s Replacement Level as he’s put up 13.4 and 24.1 points in the two games either side of the Raiders bye week with Carr starting to find his feet. Oakland has a good matchup this week, with Arizona having the most generous passing defence involved in this weekend’s games (31st in points to wide-receivers).

Lloyd has shown flashes of his old self, and knows Denver well, having been the NFL’s leading receiver in his time as a Bronco. A deep threat might prove necessary against a Denver defence which has been one of the best against opposing receivers.

Cotchery has been consistently average for Carolina so far, but with Benjamin suffering a mild concussion should see a greater workload this weekend. The Packers pass defence has been pretty good; holding opposing wideouts to less than the fantasy average, however this is as much a product of playing some average offences as anything else, and Miami lit them up for 156 receiving yards and 2 tds last week. Carolina is far from a dominant passing defence, but Green Bay has regularly demonstrated their difficulties handling a talented mobile QB and Cotchery could be the beneficiary.

Woods has emerged as a decent target for Orton and has seen a lot more looks in the passing game in recent weeks, unfortunately for the Bills, they’ve played a run of excellent defences over that period and that continues this week against the Vikes. 10 to 12 targets is a realistic number for Woods, and if he catches 7, he could find himself on the end of an 80 yard day, which would be good enough for my 4th choice.

Starting Tight Ends –

Jermaine Gresham (Cin): Ranked 2nd – Projected 4.5pts

Ben Watson (NOS): Ranked 13th – Projected 1.9pts

Ah, Jermaine Gresham… Sabotaging fantasy teams with his promise and and lack of production for about 5 years now. With the Bengals struggling for bodies who can catch passes Gresham had his best week of the year – in fact a better week than the whole year put together. Another 60+ yard outing beckons against Indy who’ve been generous to TEs so far this year.

With Jimmy Graham out, Watson is the usual number 2 tight end and should see a nice little uptick in his production. As a Jimmy Graham owner, I can testify first hand to how Drew Brees appears to have forgotten his Tight End exists so far this year, but at a thin position Watson has upside. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Kicker –

Caleb Sturgis (Mia): Ranked joint 4th – Projected 6.4pts

A veritable treasure trove of riches at Kicker compared with the other offensive positions. Gould would be a fine choice, but Sturgis should get lots of opportunities to kick against a fairly poor Chicago defence, and has only missed once this year – from 48 yards.

Starting Punter –

Steve Weatherford (NYG): Ranked N/A – Projected 0pts

Not projecting points for punters is a major oversight by MFL. Weatherford is the second best punter so far amongst free agents, and he was the best in the league last year. His leg may be sore after last weekend, but he, unlike the rest of the Giants’ offence, could at least reflect on a job well done against Philly.

 

On to the defence… As a general rule, projected scores for defensive players are a joke. We’re dealing with big play scoring, and the league doesn’t seem to project big play scores, as such the projections are essentially useless as a guide here.

Starting Defensive Ends –

Haloti Ngata (Oak): Ranked 1st – Projected 2pts

George Johnson (Det): Ranked joint 38th – Projected 0pts

Ngata is a steady presence, with the potential for a big game, and his ability to make plays on passing downs matches up well against their pass happy offence.

Johnson is in good form, with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss in his last two games. Dallas abused New Orleans’ offense, and Detroit bring a much better defensive unit to the game. Johnson can ride his hot-streak to make Drew Brees life slightly more miserable. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Defensive Tackle –

Sammy Lee Hill (Ten): Ranked joint 25th – Projected 0pts

Tennessee have a good defence, tough, but not that special – that’s why their players litter the DynaBowl free agency pool. They also have the Washington Redskins in town, so expect to see a lot of them on my team this week.

Starting Linebackers –

Kamerion Wimbley (Ten): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Pernell McPhee (Bal): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

Eric Walden (Ind): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Jabaal Sheard (Cle): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

These are mostly match-up based. Tennessee and Washington, Baltimore and Atlanta (who are terrible on the road) and Cleveland and Jacksonville should provide plenty of opportunities for these guys to make plays. Indy play the Bengals, who’ve shown one of the better lines in the early stages of the season, but this is a trend thing. The Bengals line seems to be getting worse, and the Indy defence seems to be finding its feet. Walden has three sacks on the year and five tackles for a loss, I like him to have a good game.

Starting Safeties –

Michael Griffin (Ten): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5pts

Roman Harper (Car): Ranked 9th – Projected 3pts

Griffin is actually projected worse than his Tennessee safety colleague (15 points!), but has consistently out-performed him this year so far. Backing Kirk Cousins to throw stupid interceptions is basically playing with house money.

I was tempted to double down on Tennessee, but while Harper might be old, but he’s still pretty good in the passing game. The scoring we use doesn’t worry about players getting lit up, or defences who can’t stop their opponents – Green Bay figure to see a fair amount of the ball against Carolina, and Rodgers will make plays all day long, meaning at worst Harper should provide a reasonable return in tackles, defended passes and the like, with the potential for a big play along the way.

Starting Cornerbacks –

Adam Jones (Cin): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.2pts

Blidi Wreh-Wilson (Ten): Ranked joint 2nd – Projected 4pts

Jones plays in a good Cincy secondary who should get the chance to make plays against pass-happy Andy Luck, who rarely lets a game pass without one interception at least. Jones was also used as a returner last week, and that little point bump can only help.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson possesses an excellent name. He had a huge game against the Jags, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll repeat that, Tennessee are playing the Redskins, and it could be jackpot time for anyone in that secondary. I’m also loathe to pick two players from the same club at corner or safety, else Newman would have been a good play here.

And so, without further ado, your full week 7 replacements (and the projected best replacements teams)

    Proj Rank among FA Best Best Points
QB Charlie Whitehurst, TEN 9 4 Kyle Orton, BUF 12.06
RB Roy Helu, WAS 5.6 1 Roy Helu, WAS 5.6
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5 2 Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5
WR Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4 3 Andrew Hawkins, CLE 6.2
WR Brandon Lloyd, SFO 2.2 27 Jarius Wright, MIN 6.1
WR Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3 4 Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4
WR Robert Woods, BUF 4.525 6 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5 2 Lance Kendricks, STL 9
TE Ben Watson, NOS 1.9 13 Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5
PK Caleb Sturgis, MIA 6.4 4= Robbie Gould, CHI 7.4
PN Steve Weatherford, NYG 0 N/A N/A 0
 
DE Haloti Ngata, BAL 2 1 Haloti Ngata, BAL 2
DE George Johson, DET 0 38= Osi Umenyiora, ATL 1
DT Ian Williams, SFO 0.5 7= Damon Harrison, NYJ 1
DT Sammie Lee Hill, TEN 0 25= Vince Wilfork, NEP 1
LB Kamerion Wimbley, TEN 1 31= Jacquian Williams, NYG 3
LB Pernell McPhee, BAL 0 63= Jon Beason, NYG 2.5
LB Eric Walden, IND 1 31= Philip Wheeler, MIA 2.5
LB Jabaal Sheard, CLE 0 63= Tahir Whitehead, DET 2.5
S Michael Griffin, TEN 5 2 George Wilson, TEN 15
S Roman Harper, CAR 3 9 Michael Griffin, TEN 5
CB Adam Jones, CIN 5.2 1 Adam Jones, CIN 5.2
CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 4 2= Terence Newman, CIN 4
 
  72.025 111.76

 

I’d nominate manboob, for nominating me, but that seems like a vicious circle, and he’s already had his chance and blown it. So for next week I’d like to nominate manager of the Firebeards, Neil to see if he can’t beat his actual team’s score for the week.

Replacement Level: Week 3

Week 3? Wait. What happened? Did I get blackout drunk? Or did I have an altercation with Ray Rice, Ray MacDonald, Greg Hardy or Jonathan Dwyer? God, that’s a depressing joke.

Yes, week 2 got missed out, as did the results of week 1. But I’m here to make that up to you. Sort of. I’m also not the person who did this before. This will be shorter, but not necessarily sweeter. Still, a challenge has been laid down. In week 1 Pete selected the following team:

QB Geno Smith – projected points 11.86 – actual points 12.64
RB Dexter McCluster, Jon Dwyer – 7.2 – 7.3
WR Andre Caldwell, Malcom Floyd, Miles Austin, David Nelson – 24.075 – 16.3
TE Marcedes Lewis, Anthony Fasano – 5.3 – 12.4
PK Ryan Succoup – 7.4 – 12.0
PN Mike Scifres – 0 – 6.9

DT Bennie Logan – 1.0 – 1.0
DE Derek Wolfe, Jason Hatcher – 7.5 – 6.0
LB Quinton Coples, Larry Foote, Melvin Ingram, Brooks Reed – 12 – 30.0
CB Carlos Rogers , Johnathon Joseph – 4.55 – 10.75
S Michael Griffin, DJ Swearinger – 8.5 – 35.45
Total Projected Points: 89.385 – Total Actual Points 150.740

A phenomenal effort that clearly won’t be beaten. And indeed, it wasn’t beaten by three teams. Teams that had actually been bought at auction. Teams that had been lovingly crafted, but curated from off-cuts. The shame should fall on the GMs of Here Comes The Brees, The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness and DynaForOne Firebirds.

The challenge, of course, is to both beat the total and beat more teams, neither of which I think will be possible. Pete got amazingly lucky with over 65 points from just 6 players on defense and a further 12 from the second highest scoring kicker in the league that week. So, once again, I will not beat this total. Also, because many of these players have now been snapped up. Indeed, Malcolm Floyd was snapped up because he appeared on this team and actually played in week 1 for Champions of the Sun. Which means I’ll not be putting my hot tips into this team, instead I will be putting in blind bids for them…

Anyway, without further ado, here’s a line-up. Let’s see how it does this weekend:

QB Geno Smith – projected points 11.62
RB Bilal Powell – 4.5 – Roy Helu – 3.6 – Brandon Bolden – 1.8
WR Steve Smith Snr – 8.075 – Miles Austin – 5.2 – Ted Ginn Jnr – 4.25 – Devin Hester – 3.15
TE Larry Donnell – 5.7
PK Matt Bryant – 7.4
PN Steve Weatherford – 0

DT Vince Wilfork – 0.5
DE Robert Ayers – 6.0 – Manny Lawson – 1.5
LB Erik Walden – 6.0 – Dant’a Hightower – 1.5 – Philip Wheeler – 2.5 – Thomas Davis – 2.0
CB Johnathan Joseph – 4.5 – Kareem Jackson – 4.0
S Da’Norris Searcy – 3.5 – Dashon Goldson – 2.5
Total Projected Points: 89.795

I’ve managed to eek out a little more than Pete in the projected totals, plus I think I have a secret weapon. Devin Hester is due a kick return TD. I chose him and Ginn Jnr on the basis that they could be winning lottery tickets. Likewise (a little) Brandon Bolden. He’s very unlikely to do much, but who know what Bill will do. He rotates his running backs at random – I figured I’d hope I got lucky. Will I? We’ll see. The pickings were slim. I really, really hope this team doesn’t beat my own.

Replacement Level: Week 1

Replacement Level is (potentially) a weekly column where reigning Chatterbowl Champion, sitting on the outside of the Dynabowl looking in, chooses a lineup from the Free Agents to compete against the Dynabowl superstars. Can a rag-tag bunch of aged and infirm veterans hold their own against the deep rosters of the league? The answer is a cast-iron No, but maybe we’ll have a bit of fun along the way trying to beat the projections.

Offense
I’m very tempted to give Chad Henne the nod over the other QBs here because he doesn’t have to face a serious pass rush from the Eagles. He’s looked comfortable in pre-season, and will be hoping for an unpressured first game. However Geno Smith (vs 32nd-ranked OAK) just beats him out for the starting position, leaving McCown (vs CAR) and Hoyer (vs PIT) looking in.

The Running Back scene resembles an icy tundra with a herd of caribou stampeding off into the distance. Left behind are the sickly and lame – Dexter McCluster (TEN) and Jonathan Dwyer (ARI) are the starters here. McCluster makes it in on gadget potential, while Dwyer should get carries once Ellington is exhausted trampling through the porous SD run defense. Not selected, Mike Tolbert circles the two, hunger in his eyes.

That means four Wide Receivers start. Malcom Floyd (SD) and Miles Austin are the wideouts, with David Nelson (NYJ) in the slot. Andre Caldwell becomes the fourth starter and may benefit from Wes Welker’s suspension.

Two Tight Ends try and make up for the lack of production at running back. Marcedes Lewis (JAX) makes the team as the Jacksonville safety blanket in 2014. Anthony Fasano (KC) is big enough and ugly enough to pick up some receptions in Dwayne Bowe’s absence.

Kicker – Ryan Succoup (TEN). Punter – Mike Scifres (SD).

Defense

The Replacements have gone for a 3-4 defense, with Philly DT Bennie Logan getting the nod against Jacksonville in the hope that he will pick up a few tackles on Toby Gerhart. Derek Wolfe (DEN) and Jason Hatcher (WAS) fill in at Defensive End, with the outside chance that their supporting pass rushers will open lanes for them against the Colts and Texans respectively. This is likely a forlorn hope but they will at least be solid against the run.

The Linebacker corps has been built on the expectations of tackles rather than sacks, as the sack masters have been scooped up already. They are Coples (NYJ), Foote (ARI), Brooks Reed (HOU), and Melvin Ingram (SD). Coples makes the group entirely because of last year’s Madden stats (Madden and the real NFL are often confused in the mind of the writer – cf Santonio Holmes), while Foote is present to absorb San Diego’s running game. Reed should be on cleanup detail behind Watt and Clowney, while Ingram was sadly overlooked in the Dynabowl draft after an ACL tear last year. However, he needs to translate hurries into sacks, and it is not clear that he will.

Defensive Backs were chosen based on the quality of offense they are facing this weekend, on the off chance that aggressive play may snag them an interception or two. Carlos Rogers (vs NYJ) and Johnathon Joseph (vs WAS) are the corners, while Michael Griffin (vs KC) and DJ Swearinger (vs WAS) are the safeties and should get tackles against two good running games.

Summary (with projected points)
QB Geno Smith (11.86)
RB Dexter McCluster, Jon Dwyer (7.2)
WR Andre Caldwell, Malcom Floyd, Miles Austin, David Nelson (24.075)
TE Marcedes Lewis, Anthony Fasano (5.3)
PK Ryan Succoup (7.4)
PN Mike Scifres (0)

DT Bennie Logan (1.0)
DE Derek Wolfe, Jason Hatcher (7.5)
LB Quinton Coples, Larry Foote, Melvin Ingram, Brooks Reed (12)
CB Carlos Rogers , Johnathon Joseph (4.55)
S Michael Griffin, DJ Swearinger (8.5)
Total Projected Points: 89.385

Find out how The Replacements would have done early next week, when the results are in…

Chatterbowl Champ Rates DynaBowl Runners & Riders

Last year’s Supreme Chatterbowl Champion, and cruel snub in the Coach of the Year voting, Pete Conaghan steps forward to rate the 2014 rosters of the Dynabowl hopefuls after the inaugural auction… Without further ado, and in reverse order, we present the pre-season power rankings…

East Flanders Flahutes

Can a team have too many Tight Ends? Not if you are Norv Turner or the Flahutes, who have five current starters in that roster spot. While the Flahutes are strong (but not deep) at QB and RB, with Drew Brees expecting to play until he is 45, and have a solid but unspectacular receiving corps, it will be defense that lets them down, with a mixture of the aged and infirm putting them bottom of the big-play index. It is disturbing that after two weeks of intensive roster building, the Flahutes still only have 44 players.

One to watch: Kyle Rudolph, fresh off a new deal, could star in Minnesota’s new Air-Norvan offense.

Ranking: 10th

DynaForOne Firebirds

Like the car that shares their name, the Firebirds are all muscle up front, but does that mask a worrying fragility? Beast Mode provides the bulk , while Chris Johnson provides the indecision. The WRs are a fragile bunch, while Rivers and Russell Wilson are indestructible at QB. The Tight Ends include Finley, Gates and Gronkowski, but also Garrett Graham who can step in if all the others are injured at once. The Firebirds may not have enough firepower at RB.

Defense leans heavily on grizzled veterans Julius Peppers and Justin Tuck – can they reach the sack heights of previous years? Suh and Atkins provide the interior muscle, while the linebackers will rely strongly on tackle numbers. The team as a whole has a lot of questions to answer.

One to watch: Chris Johnson joins the circus. Look out, it will be entertaining.

Ranking: 9th

The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

If I had to describe the Dynasty of Sadness in one word it would be: middle of the road. An unspectacular collection of established players on offense is backed up by a solid defensive unit. A group of dirt-dogs rather than stars, the Dynasty has put its faith in the gradual accumulation of points rather than Hollywood play, and has married this to the expectation of breakout performances by the likes of Montee Ball and Ladarius Green.  Cam ‘Hello Kitty’ Newton stands out on offense, ably backed up by the small-handed Minnesota QB, while Eric Berry and Lavonte David are the stars of the defense. A dark horse.

One to watch: Adam Vinateri provides some much-needed youth on offense. Will he be a star?

Ranking: 8th

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Kelkowski also have the dubious honour of five starting Tight Ends, and have two of the marquee players in Thomas and Jordan. This is counteracted by having two QBs who have faced questions as to their  heart, commitment, and accuracy under pressure. While the Firebirds have Rivers and Wilson, Kelkowski have Romo and Kaepernick. While there is only one winner there, their meeting in week 4 should be interesting.

Kelkowski will be hoping for a big year from Arian Foster, but he is ably backed up by DeMarco Murray and Zac Stacy. The WR group looks fragile, though Megatron makes up for many ills.

An aging defensive line looks misleadingly lightweight in terms of points, due to several major injuries last year. While Fairley was a beast, Knighton underperformed last year compared to his on-field value, and the team will be hoping Demarcus Ware has a new lease of life across from Von Miller. If Dansby can maintain his form with Cleveland, and Cushing comes back strong, then this group is well backed up by a strong secondary.

One to watch: Cordarelle Patterson will thrive, if they can get him the ball.

Ranking: 7th

Tamworth Two

If Tamworth like running backs so much, why don’t they just marry them? A wide mix of player types mean the Hogs can pick and choose their strategy on any given week. More of a concern though, is whether Carson Palmer can stay upright with the level of pass rush he will face this season. Tamworth need another QB to provide depth at that position.  Much is expected of an underperforming  WR group, though the twin towers of Jeffrey and Jackson will alleviate concern there.

Defense is a strength for Tamworth, with a mixture of sacks and tackles being the order of the day.

One to watch: Eric Ebron should dislodge Ole Stone Hands Brandon Pettigrew in short order in Detroit.

Ranking: 6th

Dynablaster Bombermen

Literally anchored by Mark Ingram at RB, the Bombermen will hope for great things from the SF duo of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, now that Kendall Hunter is out for the season.  Giovanni and Ellington provide the spark for what is a great group of RBs. QBs and WRs are likewise young and exciting, with Johnny Football providing the glamour and a sprinkle of pixie dust.

Cooks, Floyd, Green and Williams lend the WR corps their explosiveness, which will be needed with the defense big on star power, but pretty pedestrian points-wise. The Williamses – the Buffalo Williamses – are the best bet for boosting the big-play index here.

The team is a pleasing blend of youngsters and vets, and should compete for the foreseeable future.

One to watch: Will Cooks make an impact for the Saints straight away?

Ranking: 5th

Champions of the Sun

The Champions have an interesting selection dilemma each week, neatly represented by their split personality QB corps. Should they go for gunslinger Jay Cutler, or mild-mannered accountant Alex Smith? Should they go for plodding Bell and Jones-Drew, or dual threat Spiller and Tate? Will they go with the big-play potential of Maclin and Jackson, or the red-zone chops of ‘fading’ stars Nicks and White? A nicely balanced group makes selection on offense difficult.

Defense is bolstered by the spectacular Robert Quinn, who is targeting 20 sacks this year, and is well backed up by a group of excellent, if mostly injured linebackers. Tackle numbers should be high with this group.

One to watch: Can Khalil Mack be a pass rush threat, or will he have his hands full against a rush-heavy schedule?

Ranking: 4th

Dyna Hard

Dyna Hard are well stocked at running back, with marquee names Charles and Morris leading the charge, but a dependency on Matthew Stafford could be worrying if he was to get hurt. At least he should have three quality receivers to throw to this year, allaying concerns about his decision making. The jury is still out on backup Sam Bradford, who may only see time on the bye week and in case of emergency.

Antonio Brown is the star among a motley WR crew. Tavon Austin and Julian Edelman need to produce, but Dynahard may be hoping for an immediate impact from Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins.

Greg Hardy’s upcoming hearing with the NFL will be of concern on D, but JJ Watt and Osi U should be able to fill in adequately. Miller, Clowney, Worrilds and Ogletree should be a source of sacks galore, making this front seven a potential difference-maker on any given week.

One to watch: Can you say YAC? Manuel to Watkins is one to watch.

Ranking: 3rd

Dynasore Losers

Drafting established stars seems to have been the MO for the Losers, with solid depth all through the team. Win Now is the mantra on Offense: there are a lot of miles on the RB and QB clocks, and that group may need to be totally rebuilt in the coming years. A lot will be expected of Emmanuel Sanders in Denver, and the difficulty again may be selecting the right starters among the WRs.

The opposite seems true of the defense, which has a nice mix of rookies and second- and third-year studs on the defensive line. Tamba Hali and Ryan Kerrigan provide the pass rush to complement Wilkerson and Dunlap.

One to watch: Will Derek Carr be the future of this team? Tune into Oakland games round about week 6 to find out.

Ranking: 2nd

Here Come the Brees

Balance. That’s the watchword of Here Come the Brees, who have assembled a team that pleases on most fronts. Youth and experience at QB is backed up by a (potentially) high quality stable of running backs. Likewise the WRs are a mixture of possession guys and big-time burners, with a lot of potential for big plays.

Defense consists of a collection of sack machines, who will ensure competitiveness on the defensive side of the ball. The toughest decision on both offense and defense could be who to play on any given week.

One to watch: Will Ray Rice be a distraction to the team? Can he rediscover his form of two years ago?

Ranking: 1st