Tag: Ian Kulkowski

2015 Commish Previews: Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Team: Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules – Ian Kulkowski/Jay Kelly

2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Significant Additions:

Draft – TJ Yeldon (RB), Devin Funchess (WR), Randy Gregory (DE), Danny Shelton (DT), Ty Montgomery (WR)

Free Agency – Sam Bradford (QB), Cullen Jenkins (DT), Jay Ratliff (DE)

Trade – Jason Witten (TE), Doug Baldwin (WR)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Joseph Randle (RB), Delanie Walker (TE)

Trade – Stevie Johnson (WR)

Preview:

Kelkowski clocked in as the third highest scorers and the third highest potential scorers in 2014, a feat achieved on the back of a fearsome trident at both RB and WR. First up were Arian Foster, Former Heisman Trophy Winner Mark Ingram Jnr, and DeMarco Murray. Foster is now out for probably the first 6 weeks of the season minimum and while Alfred Blue is also on the roster, the drop in quality is something similar as from Tony Romo to Blake Bortles. FHTWMIJ Is still fit and raring to go at New Orleans but CJ Spiller has come in and will take some of the carries away from him. Meanwhile DeMarco Murray is one of the most intriguing players of the season due to his move to the Eagles. While he’s likely to remain very effective, he will surely see a reduction in carries too as he shares the work with Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. All told, the running backs are looking likely to regress from their dominant position in 2014.

At receiver, they put out Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin, who can be expected to improve, repeat and regress from last season respectively. All told that’s a wash, but I’d be concerned if Johnson missed any more time, while Maclin only has one healthy, truly productive season on which to base predictions so how far he regresses is unknown. That said, he does have Alex Smith to take advantage of his pace down the sidelines.

Beyond that, there’s little depth at WR. Doug Baldwin is in an offence which might look to get more aerial, but has Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett to get past now. Devin Funchess could be in a position to try to emulate Kelvin Benjamin but he’s a converted tight end still learning the role; calling 1000 yards optimistic would be an understatement.

At tight end, Julius Thomas’ performance may shed some light on the long held debate about who is better, Peyton Manning or Blake Bortles, while Jason Witten has been an incredible player for many years but his powers must surely be waning.

The defence is pretty similar to the Bombermen’s, with strength at DE but a lack at DT and a decent balance at LB and CB, and unmatched depth at safety. That said, the Jason Pierre-Paul injury hurts. He had 12.5 sacks last year but you can probably count the number he’ll get this year on the fingers of one… oh. Anyway, if JPP doesn’t like it he can give me the finger. Sorry. That was quite tortured. To be fair, the injury could motivate him to come back with a chip on his shoulder and everyone knows when JPP is in the mood there are fireworks.

Now, just as a palate cleanser, let’s head back to AWE. Kelkowski were the closest thing the league had to a 9 win team in 2014, clocking in at a win expectation of 8.59. They had the greatest likelihood of hitting 8 wins, at 78.1% so definitely merited their place in the playoffs. If anything, these stats suggest they should be looking to move up, not down, but that, of course, doesn’t take into account any of the factors laid out above.

Verdict:

It’s tough to get repeat performances in the NFL. Too many players will have a career year and then regress back to the mean. If everything goes right for Kelkowski they are title contenders, but I just don’t see Foster/Blue, FHTWMIJ, Murray and Maclin all hitting the heights of 2014. In fact, I don’t see any of them doing so. This will still be a strong team who will be in with a shout come the end of the season.

Prediction:

6-7, though that could just as easily be 8-5. Tim is a strong Division and someone ends up being the fall guy. At the end of the day, I think there were one or two too many career years in 2014 for the numbers to repeat, but there’s enough strength here that a playoff spot wouldn’t surprise me either. The problem with predictions in these previews is that they really need to tally and I can’t just say 8-5 about everyone.

Ian Kulkowski’s 2014 Rookie Valuation Rankings

Guest submission from DynaBowl GM Ian Kulkowski

The previous article and the upcoming Dynabowl Rookie draft got me thinking about the value of rookies.  This is an area that if a GM gets right could be the key to long term Dynabowl success which after all is what we all crave.  In 20 years time the only thing that will matter is the numbers of Championships you have won.

The 10 Dynabowl GM’s have employed different strategies when it comes to building their rosters. Some have taken a ‘win now’ approach (Firebirds, Losers, Kelkowski) and applied a correspondingly low value to rookies.  Some have taken the ‘dominate in the future’ approach (Bombermen, Dyna Hard, CotS) and have loaded their rosters with potential and don’t mind paying for it.  Some have taken the radical ‘win never’ approach (Sadness) and loaded up on valuable Safeties.

Which will turn out to be the triumphant strategy only time will tell.  Or maybe there is no correct way, maybe it’s all just down to dumb luck in the end.

One thing we do know going into the 2015 rookie draft is what the initial costs of our drafted rookies will be.  There’s a handy table in the rules section of the Dynabowl website (www.dynabowl.com) –

Pick Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
1 $20, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
2 $19, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
3 $18, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
4 $17, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
5 $16, 4 years $9, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
6 $15, 4 years $9, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
7 $14, 4 years $9, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
8 $13, 4 years $8, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
9 $12, 4 years $8, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years
10 $11, 4 years $7, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years
11 $11, 4 years $7, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years
12 $11, 4 years $7, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years (and all deeper picks)

So I thought if I applied to these costs to each of the rookies selected in 2014, ranked by their initial auction value I could somehow gage where, if at all any value could be achieved.

Round 1

Pick 1 – Sammy Watkins

Auction value $37, Rookie Value $20

Watkins was one of the highest ranked rookies going into last season (behind only Sankey possibly) so it’s no surprise he attained the highest auction value.  At $37 this is way above what he would cost as a rookie.  Watkins was the 26th ranked WR in our game last year with 133 points which in any normal season would be stellar for a rookie.  Still Watkins will likely improve and should become a fixture in the top 20 WR’s.  If he ever had someone decent throwing to him his value would be even greater.

So the conclusion is if you’d taken Watkins with the first pick at $20 I think you’d be pretty happy with the value you’d got.  See where I’m going with this now?  No?  Not sure I do either.  Anyway….

Pick 2 – Brandin Cooks

Auction value $33, Rookie Value $19

The second highest ranked  rookie WR prior to last year’s draft was probably Cooks, especially given his nice landing spot with the Saints.  The $33 the Bombermen paid is again more than the $19 the 2nd pick in the rookie draft would have cost. Cooks ended up as the 59th ranked WR last year with just 88 points.  This came however in an injury shortened season where Cooks missed the last 6 games with a broken thumb.  His per game points were 8.8 ranking him 25th amongst WRs.  Looking forward Cooks is now the only receiver remaining in New Orleans so has tremendous potential, however the future remains unclear for the Saints so it’s difficult to judge how good a position being their no. 1 WR will be going forward.

At $19 though I think you would be pretty pleased with your investment of the no. 2 pick in Cooks.

Pick 3 – Teddy Bridgeater

Auction value $30, Rookie Value $18

Manboob clearly has the biggest mancrush on Teddy.  It makes me sick.  Of last season’s rookie QB’s he was probably most people’s no 1 by a small margin though I doubt many would have him ranked as the no. 3 rookie.  Bridgeeater was the 22nd ranked QB last season behind the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith and just ahead of Kyle Orton.  He should improve this season and possibly trouble the top 10-15 QB’s.

$18 would represent reasonable value for Bridgeeater, there are however a number of ‘safe’ older top 15 QB’s in our league who cost much less (Rapistberger $8, Tannehill $2, Manning $1, Romo $4) so maybe using the pick differently would be wiser.

Pick 4 – Mike Evans

Auction Value $30, Rookie Value $17

Evans had an exceptional season as a rookie last year finishing as the no. 10 overall WR in our game with 177 points.  He has the opportunity to improve this season with a potentially improved QB situation with Heisman trophy winner and No.1 overall pick in this years NFL Jameis Winston behind center.

Evans is up there with the elite WR’s straight away so $17 represents exceptional value.

Pick 5 – Carlos Hyde

Auction Value $28, Rookie Value $16

Hyde was backup to Frank Gore in his rookie season with the 49ers hence he ended up as the 50th ranked running back with 69 points.  With Gore now gone Hyde will get his chance as feature back so this year will be when his value is revealed.  If Hyde doesn’t produce competition will come from Reggie Bush so he’s by no means a cert.

Determining Hyde’s value is difficult at this stage.  If he makes the 49ers backfield his own and ends up as a top 15-20 back then the $16 investment is worthwhile.  If he ends up in a committee then that price may not end up looking that good.

Pick 6 – Bishop Sankey

Auction Value $22, Rookie Value $15

Sankey was the no.1 ranked rookie going into last season but didn’t achieve that position amongst our rookies.  We must have known something as Sankey disappointed last year finishing 43rd amongst RB’s despite being the lead back at Tennessee.  He will get another shot as the lead back but will be on a shorter leash with this year’s 5th round pick David Cobb competing for time in the Titans backfield.

At this point $15 looks like poor value as there is a big chance Sankey could be a bust.

Pick 7 – Johnny Football

Auction Value $21, Rookie Value $14

Manziel’s rookie season was a disaster as he failed spectacularly to live up to the hype and spent the majority of the season as backup to Brian Hoyer for the Browns, ending up with a stint in rehab.  It’s doubtful whether Manziel will make any impact this or any year although competition in Cleveland is never too fierce so his time may come one day.

Currently Manziel has very little dynasty value so $14 would be wasted.

Pick 8 – Jadeveon Clowney

Auction Value $20, Rookie Value $13

The no. 1 overall pick in last year’s NFL draft Clowney was unsurprisingly the highest priced rookie defender in our auction.  Last year was a write off for Clowney after having two lots of surgery on his knee.  Health will continue to be a question going into the 2015 season and it remains to be seen if Clowney can get back to where he was.  If he does he will surely cement himself amongst the top LB’s in the game.

A fit Clowney should be amongst the top scoring LB’s but does $13 represent good value even here?  Probably just about although if you look at the top scoring LB’s from last season only 5 of the top 25 cost more than $4 with most costing only $1.

Pick 9 – Ryan Shazier

Auction Value $19, Rookie Value $12

A surprise pick at no. 9 in our draft it’s fair to say the Steelers 1st round pick was probably not regarded as one of the top fantasy prospects.  Like Clowney Shazier suffered with injuries in his debut season reducing him to only a handful of starts making it impossible to make a judgment at this stage.

Similarly to Clowney if Shazier delivers a fully fit season he could be amongst the top LB’s.  It is however doubtful whether this is enough to represent value at $12.

Pick 10 – Tre Mason

Auction Value $16, Rookie Value $11

Mason was amongst the top RB prospects in last year’s rookie class and ended up rounding out our first round of rookies.  After quickly usurping Zac Stacy & Benny Cunningham atop the Rams RB depth chart Mason performed well finishing 27th amongst RB’s despite not playing in the first 5 games.  Going into 2015 Mason again finds himself 2nd on the Rams depth chart behind this year’s first round pick (and best of class amongst 2015 rookie backs) Todd Gurley.  He undoubtedly has the ability to be a serviceable back but the situation doesn’t look great for the time being in St Louis.

At $11 Mason was decent value last year but the situation in St Louis makes the future uncertain.

Kommish Komment Korner

It’s worth noting that all of these players (I believe – I’ve not researched this Komment) were taken in the auction and the rookies taken in the post-auction roster filling exercise went much, much cheaper. Partially this was down to the by-then depleted finances of franchises but it was also, I believe, influenced by the fact that people were not directly bidding against each other. It is much easier to say “$19” for Ryan Shazier when someone has just said “$18” directly before you than it is to say “I’ll pay a maximum of $20 for Shazier” when you have no idea what else is also going on. The roster-filling stage had lots of bet-hedging going on and players went much cheaper than at auction. At least that’s how I’m explaining my overspending.

Replacement Level: Week 7

After my second resounding Manboob victory of the season, Geoffrey has seen fit to leave me the replacements. So let’s start by “thanking” him with a review of how he did do and could have done:

    Proj Actual FA Rank Best Best Points
QB Stanton 4.28 0 7= Mike Glennon, TB 18.56
RB Rodgers 5.15 0.9 18 Fozzy Whittaker, CAR 11.6
RB Ogbannaya 3.5 0 28= Roy Helu, WAS 6.6
RB Robinson 2.825 3.6 7
WR Johnson, S 2.9 5.3 15 Andre Holmes, OAK 24.1
WR Wright 3.9 3.8 18 Robert Woods, BUF 15.8
WR Ginn Jr 2.2 2.375 25 Brandon Lloyd, SFO 14
WR LaFell 4.6 21.7 2* Chris Hogan, BUF 13.2
TE Carlson 4.4 1.4 14 James Casey, PHI 8.6
TE Lance Kendricks, STL 8.2
PK Cantazaro 6.4 10.45 1* Mike Nugent, CIN 9.7
PN Ryan 0 5.675 10 Steve Weatherford, NYG 12.425
 
DE Ngata 2 1.25 25= Vinny Curry, PHI 15
DE Gholston 1 4.5 10 George Johnson, DET 13.75
DT Guion 0.5 3 13= Evander Hood, JAC 13
LB Robinson 2.5 5 20* Tahir Whitehead, DET 26.95
LB Sheard 0 1 54= Dan Skuta, SFO 23.5
LB Durant 1.5 4 26= Justin Tuggle, HOU 16.05
LB Graham 1 19 3* Alex Okafor, ARI 16
S Ishmael 4 3 14= Rashad Johnson, ARI 38.8
S Jefferson 5.65 1 26= Dontae Johnson, SFO 20
CB Cox 0 6.25 12* Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 22.65
CB Arrington 1.5 1.25 43* Buster Skrine, CLE 19.5
 
  59.805 104.45 367.985
 

 

 

Much like Bill Belichick Mangboob is a coach / GM, and much like Bill he spends a lot of time being grumpy in hoodies. This is not where the similarity ends, as both Bill and Manboob show a knack for coaching the shit out of his players, getting far more than the traditional 110% out of his players with an impressive 175% improvement. Unfortunately, also like Bill, Manboob is a terrible GM specialising in identifying players who have an awful lot of shit to be coached out, and the 104 he scored, while impressive against the predictions, was a long way short of the near 370 possible.

Overall Manboob finds himself coaching the Replacements to their second lowest score, and didn’t manage to beat a single proper team, leaving Pete’s week one effort still the best the Replacements have managed, and the only time the replacements have beaten a DynaBowl franchise.

    Proj Actual CtSOoT* Score Teams beaten
Week 1 Pete Conaghan 89.385 150.74 1.69 3
Week 2

Move along nothing to see here

Week 3 Ben Hendy 89.795 126.64 1.41 0
Week 4 James Goodson 52.4 97 1.85 0
Week 5 Iran Kulkowski 79.2 144.535 1.82 0
Week 6 Geoffrey Manboob 59.805 104.45 1.75 0
Week 7 David Slater 72.025

Anyway, enough trashing Manboob (power-ranked 10th out of 10 right now), it’s time to introduce Week 7’s replacements.*Coaching the Shit Out of Them

Ladies and gentlemen (well, just gentlemen) please could we have a tepid and disinterested round of applause for your offence!

Starting Quarterback – Charlie Whitehurst (Ten): Ranked 4th – Projected 9 points

This really comes down to a choice between 4 potential starters – Orton, Fitzpatrick, Genome Smith and Whitehurst.

Half man, half beard... ALL BEARD
Half man, half beard… ALL BEARD

Fitz may look like he’s eating a squirrel through his helmet grill, but he’s likely to be a liability against a Pittsburgh defence who have held opposing QBs to very low scores (joint 4th best in fantasy against QBs), and sadly doesn’t score any points for his squirrel-munching antics.

Orton is up against an even more effective Minnesota defence – 4th best in fantasy against QBs despite facing Matts Ryan and Stafford, Tom Fucking Brady, Adam Rodgers and Brees in 5 of their 6 weeks.

Genome, is facing the Patriots – better than both Pittsburgh and Minnesota in terms of destroying a QB’s fantasy totals – and he is a truly fucking terrible QB.

Seen here in court, yesterday
Seen here in court, yesterday

This leaves Whitehurst, who is playing Washington’s incredibly forgiving defence, a defence so bad it made King Cunt Nick Foles looks good. Also Charlie has magnificent hair. The only real risk is that Jake Locker is fit enough to play Sunday, but even if he is, it’s likely Whitehurst gets 2 quarters and he could still outscore the others in that time.

Starting Running Backs –

Roy Helu (Was): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.6pts

Jonathan Stewart (Car): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5.5pts

To say the running back options are thin would be an understatement. They’re anorexic, a graveyard of terrible selections.

Helu, who sees regular change of pace work in the Washington backfield is a steady option, and with a TD could put up a decent score.

The chaos in Carolina’s backfield means that the fit again Stewart (last week’s running back of the week in Carolina, Fozzy Whittaker, is questionable as is the week before’s Darrin Reaves) is likely to start and see the majority of carries when Cam doesn’t decide to do it all himself.

Starting Wide Receivers –

Andre Holmes (Oak): Ranked 3rd – Projected 5.4pts

Brandon Lloyd (SF): Ranked 27th – Projected 2.2pts

Jerricho Cotchery (Car): Ranked 4th – Projected 5.3pts

Robert Woods (Buf): Ranked 6th – Projected 4.525pts

Holmes is a no-brainer, and I’d be surprised if he were available for next week’s Replacement Level as he’s put up 13.4 and 24.1 points in the two games either side of the Raiders bye week with Carr starting to find his feet. Oakland has a good matchup this week, with Arizona having the most generous passing defence involved in this weekend’s games (31st in points to wide-receivers).

Lloyd has shown flashes of his old self, and knows Denver well, having been the NFL’s leading receiver in his time as a Bronco. A deep threat might prove necessary against a Denver defence which has been one of the best against opposing receivers.

Cotchery has been consistently average for Carolina so far, but with Benjamin suffering a mild concussion should see a greater workload this weekend. The Packers pass defence has been pretty good; holding opposing wideouts to less than the fantasy average, however this is as much a product of playing some average offences as anything else, and Miami lit them up for 156 receiving yards and 2 tds last week. Carolina is far from a dominant passing defence, but Green Bay has regularly demonstrated their difficulties handling a talented mobile QB and Cotchery could be the beneficiary.

Woods has emerged as a decent target for Orton and has seen a lot more looks in the passing game in recent weeks, unfortunately for the Bills, they’ve played a run of excellent defences over that period and that continues this week against the Vikes. 10 to 12 targets is a realistic number for Woods, and if he catches 7, he could find himself on the end of an 80 yard day, which would be good enough for my 4th choice.

Starting Tight Ends –

Jermaine Gresham (Cin): Ranked 2nd – Projected 4.5pts

Ben Watson (NOS): Ranked 13th – Projected 1.9pts

Ah, Jermaine Gresham… Sabotaging fantasy teams with his promise and and lack of production for about 5 years now. With the Bengals struggling for bodies who can catch passes Gresham had his best week of the year – in fact a better week than the whole year put together. Another 60+ yard outing beckons against Indy who’ve been generous to TEs so far this year.

With Jimmy Graham out, Watson is the usual number 2 tight end and should see a nice little uptick in his production. As a Jimmy Graham owner, I can testify first hand to how Drew Brees appears to have forgotten his Tight End exists so far this year, but at a thin position Watson has upside. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Kicker –

Caleb Sturgis (Mia): Ranked joint 4th – Projected 6.4pts

A veritable treasure trove of riches at Kicker compared with the other offensive positions. Gould would be a fine choice, but Sturgis should get lots of opportunities to kick against a fairly poor Chicago defence, and has only missed once this year – from 48 yards.

Starting Punter –

Steve Weatherford (NYG): Ranked N/A – Projected 0pts

Not projecting points for punters is a major oversight by MFL. Weatherford is the second best punter so far amongst free agents, and he was the best in the league last year. His leg may be sore after last weekend, but he, unlike the rest of the Giants’ offence, could at least reflect on a job well done against Philly.

 

On to the defence… As a general rule, projected scores for defensive players are a joke. We’re dealing with big play scoring, and the league doesn’t seem to project big play scores, as such the projections are essentially useless as a guide here.

Starting Defensive Ends –

Haloti Ngata (Oak): Ranked 1st – Projected 2pts

George Johnson (Det): Ranked joint 38th – Projected 0pts

Ngata is a steady presence, with the potential for a big game, and his ability to make plays on passing downs matches up well against their pass happy offence.

Johnson is in good form, with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss in his last two games. Dallas abused New Orleans’ offense, and Detroit bring a much better defensive unit to the game. Johnson can ride his hot-streak to make Drew Brees life slightly more miserable. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Defensive Tackle –

Sammy Lee Hill (Ten): Ranked joint 25th – Projected 0pts

Tennessee have a good defence, tough, but not that special – that’s why their players litter the DynaBowl free agency pool. They also have the Washington Redskins in town, so expect to see a lot of them on my team this week.

Starting Linebackers –

Kamerion Wimbley (Ten): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Pernell McPhee (Bal): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

Eric Walden (Ind): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Jabaal Sheard (Cle): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

These are mostly match-up based. Tennessee and Washington, Baltimore and Atlanta (who are terrible on the road) and Cleveland and Jacksonville should provide plenty of opportunities for these guys to make plays. Indy play the Bengals, who’ve shown one of the better lines in the early stages of the season, but this is a trend thing. The Bengals line seems to be getting worse, and the Indy defence seems to be finding its feet. Walden has three sacks on the year and five tackles for a loss, I like him to have a good game.

Starting Safeties –

Michael Griffin (Ten): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5pts

Roman Harper (Car): Ranked 9th – Projected 3pts

Griffin is actually projected worse than his Tennessee safety colleague (15 points!), but has consistently out-performed him this year so far. Backing Kirk Cousins to throw stupid interceptions is basically playing with house money.

I was tempted to double down on Tennessee, but while Harper might be old, but he’s still pretty good in the passing game. The scoring we use doesn’t worry about players getting lit up, or defences who can’t stop their opponents – Green Bay figure to see a fair amount of the ball against Carolina, and Rodgers will make plays all day long, meaning at worst Harper should provide a reasonable return in tackles, defended passes and the like, with the potential for a big play along the way.

Starting Cornerbacks –

Adam Jones (Cin): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.2pts

Blidi Wreh-Wilson (Ten): Ranked joint 2nd – Projected 4pts

Jones plays in a good Cincy secondary who should get the chance to make plays against pass-happy Andy Luck, who rarely lets a game pass without one interception at least. Jones was also used as a returner last week, and that little point bump can only help.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson possesses an excellent name. He had a huge game against the Jags, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll repeat that, Tennessee are playing the Redskins, and it could be jackpot time for anyone in that secondary. I’m also loathe to pick two players from the same club at corner or safety, else Newman would have been a good play here.

And so, without further ado, your full week 7 replacements (and the projected best replacements teams)

    Proj Rank among FA Best Best Points
QB Charlie Whitehurst, TEN 9 4 Kyle Orton, BUF 12.06
RB Roy Helu, WAS 5.6 1 Roy Helu, WAS 5.6
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5 2 Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5
WR Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4 3 Andrew Hawkins, CLE 6.2
WR Brandon Lloyd, SFO 2.2 27 Jarius Wright, MIN 6.1
WR Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3 4 Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4
WR Robert Woods, BUF 4.525 6 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5 2 Lance Kendricks, STL 9
TE Ben Watson, NOS 1.9 13 Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5
PK Caleb Sturgis, MIA 6.4 4= Robbie Gould, CHI 7.4
PN Steve Weatherford, NYG 0 N/A N/A 0
 
DE Haloti Ngata, BAL 2 1 Haloti Ngata, BAL 2
DE George Johson, DET 0 38= Osi Umenyiora, ATL 1
DT Ian Williams, SFO 0.5 7= Damon Harrison, NYJ 1
DT Sammie Lee Hill, TEN 0 25= Vince Wilfork, NEP 1
LB Kamerion Wimbley, TEN 1 31= Jacquian Williams, NYG 3
LB Pernell McPhee, BAL 0 63= Jon Beason, NYG 2.5
LB Eric Walden, IND 1 31= Philip Wheeler, MIA 2.5
LB Jabaal Sheard, CLE 0 63= Tahir Whitehead, DET 2.5
S Michael Griffin, TEN 5 2 George Wilson, TEN 15
S Roman Harper, CAR 3 9 Michael Griffin, TEN 5
CB Adam Jones, CIN 5.2 1 Adam Jones, CIN 5.2
CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 4 2= Terence Newman, CIN 4
 
  72.025 111.76

 

I’d nominate manboob, for nominating me, but that seems like a vicious circle, and he’s already had his chance and blown it. So for next week I’d like to nominate manager of the Firebeards, Neil to see if he can’t beat his actual team’s score for the week.

Replacement Level: Week 5/6 Addendum

Geoffrey Manboob is a good man. And thorough. Well, not that thorough but he is busy, and I won’t have you holding that against him.

He missed a couple of things in his replacement level post this week and I am here to update those. Firstly, his own projected score, which is as follows:

PK Cantanzaro Ari 6.4
PN Ryan Seattle 0
QB Stanton Ari 4.28
RB Rodgers Atl 5.15
Ogbannaya Car 3.5
Robinson Jac 2.825
WR Johnson SF 2.9
Wright Min 3.9
Ginn Jnr Ari 2.2
LaFell NEP 4.6
TE Carlson Ari 4.4
DE Ngata Bal 2
Gholston TBB 1
DT Guion GBP 0.5
LB Robinson Was 2.5
Sheard Cle 0
Durant Dal 1.5
Graham Phi 1
S Ishmael Atl 4
Jefferson Ari 5.65
CB Cox SF 0
Arrington NEP 1.5
Total 59.805

 

Second of all, there’s the scoring of Iran’s team from week 5. Ian was projected a total of 79.2 points. According to his post. I do not know if this is true. But let’s see how his team actually wound up doing…

PK Bullock Hou 4
PN Schmidt Buf 10.125
QB Fitzpatrick Hou 4.46
RB Helu Was 5.8
Smith Atl 14.5
WR Austin Cle 5.4
Cotchery Car 4.6
Sanu Cin 13
Wright Min 2.7
TE Gresham Cin 1.5
Harbor Jac 2.2
DE Ayers NYG 1
Thornton Phi 12.5
DT Hankins NYG 16.5
LB Bostic Chi 1.5
Davis NYJ 2.75
Hawthorne NOS 2.25
Robinson Was 3
S Adams Ind 12.5
Moore Den 0.5
CB Allen Pit 19.5
Jackson Hou 4.25
Total 144.535

So there we go. He came out over 65 points better off. Well done Iran.

Replacement Level: Week 6

Brought to you by the one and only Geoffrey Manboob

Many thanks to Iran for nominating me to complete this week’s replacement team after I beat him again. This is always a tricky prospect given the size of everyone’s rosters and with injuries and bye weeks in full effect, but given how bad I always seem to do, I’m not holding out much hope for my selected 22 “Expendables”.

General Thought Process

The players that are available are generally high risk/reward players. Fringe stars who could score you 15 points in one week but only score 1.5 for the remainder of the season. In fact, most rookie gambles have already been stashed away. Due to this, I’ve tried to avoid being influenced by total player scores for the season or the MFL predictions weekly predictions. Instead I’ve tried to pick players who have good match-ups as well as some level of consistency over all their starts. I have probably picked a lot of the higher scoring free agents but I’ve tried not to be overly persuaded by this statistic.

The Team – Skill Positions

Obviously the most important part of any fantasy side is the skill positions, so I’ll pick these first:

PK – Chandler Cantanzaro (Ari)

Cantanzaro is Arizona’s rookie kicker who has had a great start to his NFL career. He’s been steady through his first 4 starts and should continue this against Washington this week

PN – Jon Ryan (Sea)

Difficult to know how much the Seahawks will need to punt against the Cowboys, but what impressed me in week 5 was the quality of Seattle’s punt coverage. Ryan had excellent distance and hang-time on his kicks, forcing the opposition to start deep within their territory. The Cowboys’ defense has been a surprise this year, so Ryan may see plenty of action.

Offense

QB – Drew Stanton (Ari)

Stanton has done well stepping into Carson Palmer’s shoes, but struggled last Sunday when the Broncos gave him a bit of a battering. Week 6 sees a good matchup for Arizona at home against Washington and their soft secondary. The Cardinals have some great receiving targets, so they should be able to move the ball downfield effectively through the air as Washington are one of the most generous defenses for fantasy QBs

RB – Jaquizz Rodgers (Atl)

Running backs by committee in Atlanta and one that seems to be growing. Rodgers provides the speed option out of the backfield, so he could be at the races if he makes it to the second level (see his TD touchdown against the Giants). It’s difficult to know how much action he’ll see, but with the threat of injury always hanging over Steven Jackson, he could quickly become the feature back. Also his pace against Chicago’s linebackers could make a difference.

Chris Ogbonnaya (Car)

Someone has to run the ball in Carolina and as the last man standing, that someone appears to be Ogbannaya. While Riverboat Ron will be hopeful that Jonathan Stewart can take some snaps on Sunday, it would appear the Ogbonnaya will continue to shoulder the majority of the load. Carolina face the Bengals this week who were taken apart on the ground by Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in Week 5.

Denard Robinson (Jac)

Wildcard selection because the pickings at RB are very slim. I’m a believer of sticking to my philosophy, which is selecting 3 running backs and 4 wide receivers. Robinson continues to improve and has looked lively when carrying the ball this year. While he won’t see the majority of snaps, hopefully he can exploit some third down situations for big yardage. Plus he was the cover star of NCAA Football 2014

WR – Stevie Johnson (SF)

Odd selection seeing as I just sacked him from the Dynasty of Sadness, but he’s too good not to select here. Yes, he’s hamstrung by Kaep’s inability to play QB, but he appears to have won the 3rd receiver position in San Francisco and they’ve facing one of the worst pass offenses in the league. He should make a handful of catches and maybe even bag a touchdown.

Jarius Wright (Min)

This all rests on my love of Teddy B. In Bridgeater’s only start, Wright was used effectively in the screen game. While Detroit are a much sterner test than the porous Atlanta defense, I’d expect Norv Turner to run a similar game plan, allowing Teddy to complete plenty of short passes to keep the chains moving. While it’s too early to properly judge, Wright had some decent chemistry with Bridgeater.

Ted Ginn Jr (Ari)

As per Drew Stanton, I expect Arizona to more the ball well through the air. Ginn has the added advantage of being the 3rd receiver, therefore “covered” by the largely ineffective EJ Biggers or injured Tracy Porter. While that is appealing, what tips Ginn over the edge for selection is the fact he’s a top return man against one of the most shambolic special teams in the history of football. I wouldn’t rule out a touchdown for him.

Brandon LaFell (NE)

So, I’m low on Brady, the Patriots seem to be a run first team and they deploy 2 TE sets. Why have I gone for LaFell. Well, he’s the only receiver who can catch a ball. He’s the deep threat that allows the things above to work. I’ve been fairly bullish on LaFell all season and against a tough but limited defense in Buffalo, i think he could do well (if Tim can throw this week).

TE – John Carlson (Ari)

Any receiver playing in the seam against Washington will score touchdowns. John Carlson is in prime position to go all Larry Donnell this week. If Housler decides to take the Donnell role, Carlson could easily replicate Giants backup TE Daniel Fells with a touchdown.

Defence

DE – Haloti Ngata (Bal)

Baltimore’s very own Mr Interception this season. He’s had two big games and he’s a disruptive presence at the line against a poor Tampa Bay side that can’t run the ball well. Mike Glennon should see a fair amount of him.

William Gholston (TB)
Gholston has been steady through his first 4 games (after missing week 1), but that is partly what I’m looking for. I like the matchup this week against a stretch-zone running side like Balitmore. Getting pressure at the edge should lead to tackles and some pressure on Flacco, who struggled against an average Colts defense last week.

DT – Letroy Guion (GB)

Letroy Guion had a break out performance last week in a key position for the Packers defense. While he’s not done much before the blowout win over the Vikings last week, I like the matchup against Miami, who rush a lot between the tackles and have poor pass protection for Ryan Tannehill.

LB – Keenan Robinson (Was)

He’s quick, athletic and apparently good in coverage, which is why Perry Riley has been picking up the seem receivers. Robinson should be active against Arizona who will look to use the speed and ellusiveness of Andre Ellington as a receiver. Robinson has the size to challenge for passes to TEs or even a Larry Fitzgerald.

Jabaal Sheard (Cle)

Another pick based on steady performance. Sheard has been consistent and this week sees the Browns up against the Steelers who are enjoying a strong start to the season by LeVeon Bell. This selection was for a player who I expect to busy with tackles on a pretty tough Browns defense.

Justin Durant (Dal)

He’s might be the last man standing in Dallas who can play linebacker, but he’s had a good start to the season in a defense that has surprised many of us. He’s only played 3 of the 5 Dallas games this year, but he has plenty of tackles and a few forced fumbles. In week 6, Dallas face Seattle who will be looking to get their ground game going early on.

Brandon Graham (Phi)

Very consistent through the first 5 weeks as Graham seems to be resurrecting his career under Chip Kelly. It will be a tough assignment playing outside linebacker against the Giants, but there should be plenty of opportunities for his to rush and pressure Eli. With the Giants still running the ball, he should be busy with tackles too.

S – Kemal Ishmael (Atl)

Playing safety against Jay Cutler is normally a good sign for an interception. While Atlanta don’t have the best secondary, Ishmael is good enough to catch a Cutler pick.

Tony Jefferson (Ari)

Jefferson has been pretty impressive at safety this season. This week he faces Washington and the erratic decision making of Kirk Cousins. Cousins has more ups and downs than a yo-yo. After a good performance against Seattle, he’s due to regress. The strong Cardinals run defense should force him to air it out two. Jefferson could be set for a big game.

CB – Perrish Cox (SF)

3 Interceptions already for Cox and this week he gets to line up against whichever body that St Louis can agree to play quaterback. Cox could be the best opportunity for The Replacements posting a decent score this week.

Kyle Arrington (NE)

Are you sold on Kyle Orton as the guy that will save Buffalo’s offense? No, neither am I. While Orton isn’t as bad as EJ Manuel, I can see him making some bad throws this week. What Orton is good enough to know is don’t throw to Revis, which should be great for Arrington.

Well, that ended up taking a lot longer than I expected. I might as well finish off with my suggestion for next week’s GM. While ideally I would like Mark to show us how the Roster Doctor really does it, he’s far too busy eating bananas to even remember to draft or pick up waivers in the Chatterbowl. Therefore, I’d like to nominate “Mr Fantasy Football” himself, D-Slatz, to GM the Replacements in week 7.