Brought to you by the one and only Geoffrey Manboob…
Many thanks to Iran for nominating me to complete this week’s replacement team after I beat him again. This is always a tricky prospect given the size of everyone’s rosters and with injuries and bye weeks in full effect, but given how bad I always seem to do, I’m not holding out much hope for my selected 22 “Expendables”.
General Thought Process
The players that are available are generally high risk/reward players. Fringe stars who could score you 15 points in one week but only score 1.5 for the remainder of the season. In fact, most rookie gambles have already been stashed away. Due to this, I’ve tried to avoid being influenced by total player scores for the season or the MFL predictions weekly predictions. Instead I’ve tried to pick players who have good match-ups as well as some level of consistency over all their starts. I have probably picked a lot of the higher scoring free agents but I’ve tried not to be overly persuaded by this statistic.
The Team – Skill Positions
Obviously the most important part of any fantasy side is the skill positions, so I’ll pick these first:
PK – Chandler Cantanzaro (Ari)
Cantanzaro is Arizona’s rookie kicker who has had a great start to his NFL career. He’s been steady through his first 4 starts and should continue this against Washington this week
PN – Jon Ryan (Sea)
Difficult to know how much the Seahawks will need to punt against the Cowboys, but what impressed me in week 5 was the quality of Seattle’s punt coverage. Ryan had excellent distance and hang-time on his kicks, forcing the opposition to start deep within their territory. The Cowboys’ defense has been a surprise this year, so Ryan may see plenty of action.
Offense
QB – Drew Stanton (Ari)
Stanton has done well stepping into Carson Palmer’s shoes, but struggled last Sunday when the Broncos gave him a bit of a battering. Week 6 sees a good matchup for Arizona at home against Washington and their soft secondary. The Cardinals have some great receiving targets, so they should be able to move the ball downfield effectively through the air as Washington are one of the most generous defenses for fantasy QBs
RB – Jaquizz Rodgers (Atl)
Running backs by committee in Atlanta and one that seems to be growing. Rodgers provides the speed option out of the backfield, so he could be at the races if he makes it to the second level (see his TD touchdown against the Giants). It’s difficult to know how much action he’ll see, but with the threat of injury always hanging over Steven Jackson, he could quickly become the feature back. Also his pace against Chicago’s linebackers could make a difference.
Chris Ogbonnaya (Car)
Someone has to run the ball in Carolina and as the last man standing, that someone appears to be Ogbannaya. While Riverboat Ron will be hopeful that Jonathan Stewart can take some snaps on Sunday, it would appear the Ogbonnaya will continue to shoulder the majority of the load. Carolina face the Bengals this week who were taken apart on the ground by Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in Week 5.
Denard Robinson (Jac)
Wildcard selection because the pickings at RB are very slim. I’m a believer of sticking to my philosophy, which is selecting 3 running backs and 4 wide receivers. Robinson continues to improve and has looked lively when carrying the ball this year. While he won’t see the majority of snaps, hopefully he can exploit some third down situations for big yardage. Plus he was the cover star of NCAA Football 2014
WR – Stevie Johnson (SF)
Odd selection seeing as I just sacked him from the Dynasty of Sadness, but he’s too good not to select here. Yes, he’s hamstrung by Kaep’s inability to play QB, but he appears to have won the 3rd receiver position in San Francisco and they’ve facing one of the worst pass offenses in the league. He should make a handful of catches and maybe even bag a touchdown.
Jarius Wright (Min)
This all rests on my love of Teddy B. In Bridgeater’s only start, Wright was used effectively in the screen game. While Detroit are a much sterner test than the porous Atlanta defense, I’d expect Norv Turner to run a similar game plan, allowing Teddy to complete plenty of short passes to keep the chains moving. While it’s too early to properly judge, Wright had some decent chemistry with Bridgeater.
Ted Ginn Jr (Ari)
As per Drew Stanton, I expect Arizona to more the ball well through the air. Ginn has the added advantage of being the 3rd receiver, therefore “covered” by the largely ineffective EJ Biggers or injured Tracy Porter. While that is appealing, what tips Ginn over the edge for selection is the fact he’s a top return man against one of the most shambolic special teams in the history of football. I wouldn’t rule out a touchdown for him.
Brandon LaFell (NE)
So, I’m low on Brady, the Patriots seem to be a run first team and they deploy 2 TE sets. Why have I gone for LaFell. Well, he’s the only receiver who can catch a ball. He’s the deep threat that allows the things above to work. I’ve been fairly bullish on LaFell all season and against a tough but limited defense in Buffalo, i think he could do well (if Tim can throw this week).
TE – John Carlson (Ari)
Any receiver playing in the seam against Washington will score touchdowns. John Carlson is in prime position to go all Larry Donnell this week. If Housler decides to take the Donnell role, Carlson could easily replicate Giants backup TE Daniel Fells with a touchdown.
Defence
DE – Haloti Ngata (Bal)
Baltimore’s very own Mr Interception this season. He’s had two big games and he’s a disruptive presence at the line against a poor Tampa Bay side that can’t run the ball well. Mike Glennon should see a fair amount of him.
William Gholston (TB)
Gholston has been steady through his first 4 games (after missing week 1), but that is partly what I’m looking for. I like the matchup this week against a stretch-zone running side like Balitmore. Getting pressure at the edge should lead to tackles and some pressure on Flacco, who struggled against an average Colts defense last week.
DT – Letroy Guion (GB)
Letroy Guion had a break out performance last week in a key position for the Packers defense. While he’s not done much before the blowout win over the Vikings last week, I like the matchup against Miami, who rush a lot between the tackles and have poor pass protection for Ryan Tannehill.
LB – Keenan Robinson (Was)
He’s quick, athletic and apparently good in coverage, which is why Perry Riley has been picking up the seem receivers. Robinson should be active against Arizona who will look to use the speed and ellusiveness of Andre Ellington as a receiver. Robinson has the size to challenge for passes to TEs or even a Larry Fitzgerald.
Jabaal Sheard (Cle)
Another pick based on steady performance. Sheard has been consistent and this week sees the Browns up against the Steelers who are enjoying a strong start to the season by LeVeon Bell. This selection was for a player who I expect to busy with tackles on a pretty tough Browns defense.
Justin Durant (Dal)
He’s might be the last man standing in Dallas who can play linebacker, but he’s had a good start to the season in a defense that has surprised many of us. He’s only played 3 of the 5 Dallas games this year, but he has plenty of tackles and a few forced fumbles. In week 6, Dallas face Seattle who will be looking to get their ground game going early on.
Brandon Graham (Phi)
Very consistent through the first 5 weeks as Graham seems to be resurrecting his career under Chip Kelly. It will be a tough assignment playing outside linebacker against the Giants, but there should be plenty of opportunities for his to rush and pressure Eli. With the Giants still running the ball, he should be busy with tackles too.
S – Kemal Ishmael (Atl)
Playing safety against Jay Cutler is normally a good sign for an interception. While Atlanta don’t have the best secondary, Ishmael is good enough to catch a Cutler pick.
Tony Jefferson (Ari)
Jefferson has been pretty impressive at safety this season. This week he faces Washington and the erratic decision making of Kirk Cousins. Cousins has more ups and downs than a yo-yo. After a good performance against Seattle, he’s due to regress. The strong Cardinals run defense should force him to air it out two. Jefferson could be set for a big game.
CB – Perrish Cox (SF)
3 Interceptions already for Cox and this week he gets to line up against whichever body that St Louis can agree to play quaterback. Cox could be the best opportunity for The Replacements posting a decent score this week.
Kyle Arrington (NE)
Are you sold on Kyle Orton as the guy that will save Buffalo’s offense? No, neither am I. While Orton isn’t as bad as EJ Manuel, I can see him making some bad throws this week. What Orton is good enough to know is don’t throw to Revis, which should be great for Arrington.
Well, that ended up taking a lot longer than I expected. I might as well finish off with my suggestion for next week’s GM. While ideally I would like Mark to show us how the Roster Doctor really does it, he’s far too busy eating bananas to even remember to draft or pick up waivers in the Chatterbowl. Therefore, I’d like to nominate “Mr Fantasy Football” himself, D-Slatz, to GM the Replacements in week 7.
Welcome to the weekly summary of the top fantasy players in Week 4 of the Dynabowl:
Rank
Player
Week 4 Pts
Total Pts
Trending
Comments
1
Andrew Luck (IND, QB)
29.62
107.50
No Change
Luck shows no signs of slowing down with another monster week 4 performance. 393 yards and 4 touchdowns made him the first player to top 100 total points this season
2
Matt Ryan (ATL, QB)
20.12
85.22
Up 1
While the Falcons were disappointing in their defeat to the Vikings, Ryan maintained his fantasy relevance with 298 yards and 3 TD passes. Two interceptions marred another strong performance
3
DeMarco Murray (DAL, RB)
27.50
84.20
Up 7
155 all-purpose yards and 2 rushing TDs helped the Cowboys steamroller the Saints in the Sunday night game
4
Philip Rivers (SDC, QB)
27.08
83.8
Up 5
Rivers continues his efficient start to the season. He was nearly flawless putting up 377 passing yards and throwing for 3 TDs as the Chargers beat a poor Jaguars side
5
Antonio Brown (PIT, WR)
25.78
78.18
Up 7
Brown became the top Receiver in the league with 131 yards and 2TDs as the Steelers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. 17 passing yards of a trick play would be a particular highlight for Brown owners
6
Aaron Rodgers (GBP, QB)
28.88
77.56
Up 13
Rodgers’ performances have been as stuttery as the Packers 2-2 start. Against the Bears he had a good day with 400+ passing yards and 4 TD throws.
7
Jay Cutler, (CHI, QB)
17.14
77.04
Down 1
Cutler continues to put up consistent fantasy scores. But as the Bears failed to match Packers in their Sunday shootout, Culter’s weakness for throwing interceptions reared its ugly head again. He now has 4 on the season.
8
Matthew Stafford (DET, QB)
26.52
75.64
Up 9
After two quiet games, Stafford got back on track with nearly 300 passing yards and a couple of passing TDs, all without a very limited Calvin Johnson. A rushing TD helped boost Stafford’s week 4 score
9
Kyle Fuller (CHI, CB) *
1.25
74.00
Down 7
After 2 monster weeks, Fuller came crashing back to earth recording only 2 tackles and an assist as the Bears defence was picked apart by Aaron Rodgers.
After a shakey start with new offensive co-ordinator Ben McAdoo, Eli Manning finally seems to be clicking in the Giants new West Coast offense. Through pre-season and the opening game, Manning looked lost in the new system and completely out of synch with his receivers. However, a steadily improving pass completion percentage reflects that the new system is starting to settle in. Thursday night’s performance against the Redskins certainly showed that to the whole league.
Manning finished the away trip with not only 300 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he completed an impressive 28 of 39 pass attempts (71.8%). He showed a full range of throws by mixing up short screens with precision passes down the sidelines that allowed only Giants receivers to make the catches. He has gradually built up a strong rapport with TE Larry Donnell, who had only made 3 receptions since joining the Giants as an Undrafted Free Agent in 2012. Manning was able to exploit Donnell’s size for three touchdowns including one that exposed Washington’s poor “Redzone” cover-2 defensive scheme.
While Manning was aided by Washington propensity to turn the ball over in good field position, he led an efficient Giants offense to punish those mistakes. The “icing on the cake” for his week 4 performance, was Manning’s 1 yard rushing TD. With good coverage, Manning spotted room to pick up the score much to the delight of those fantasy owners who started him.
It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. It was bonkers. It was insane. It was so crazy it might just work. It was a once in a lifetime experience, in as much as it was brilliant and, I think, that’s about the one time in my life I want to do it. It was, of course, The DynaBowl auction day in Sheffield.
I don’t want to be negative about it – I certainly don’t feel negative about it – but looking back on the day, there were so many things that went wrong, be they with my strategy and planning, or with the way the day itself was run, but they are all part of what is, weirdly (and perhaps shamefully) one of the best days of my life. I both love and hate myself a little bit more for being able to say that.
So, a brief bit of scene setting for those not in the know. We are a UK-based fantasy football (NFL) league. We have played a redraft league for a few years and had decided to step things up to a Dynasty League (Dynasty League basically means you own your players as long as you like and try to build through the draft so you can win year after year). We threw the kitchen sink at this league though. There’s an auction to start things off. There’s full IDP (individual defensive players). There’s a starting line-up of 22 players and rosters totalling 50. There’s a salary cap, and contracts with extension costs, and the ability to structure guaranteed money in different years.
Basically, we figured if we were going to do this, we were going to do everything we could possibly want to do the first time we tried, and it was going to include every feature we could think of. Nearly.
Fantasy Leagues tend to get split into two types – those played with (relative) strangers across the internet and those played amongst a group of friends, and we are definitely part of that latter group. However, we are also part of the former. We are all split out across the country in a variety of locations and rarely get to see each other. Indeed, some of us had never met others before, bizarrely, despite all being good friends. Go figure. We do spend a fair chunk of time chatting with each other via online messaging services, especially during big sporting events. Especially during the NFL season.
Our redraft league is run through the internet and the draft that takes place is internet based. If we were going to set up a Dynasty League though we wanted to do it in style, all meeting up to launch the fucker together. And that is what the Auction Day on July 12th was all about.
The plan – we had a room in a pub booked all day. 10 men would enter, 10 men would leave. Broken shells of men, but 10 of them all leaving. Those 10 men would have bought the fictional rights to 500 players for the next several years. What could possibly go wrong?
As it turns out, two very key things could go wrong. One of us could be stuck in Turkey, and we could all drastically under-estimate the amount of time it would take to buy 500 players. Thank God we weren’t dealing with agents too.
I had foreseen some problems. Availability was always going to be an issue. That’s why I had the day picked out from January. I surveyed the league. I made sure it was good for everyone. And immediately after I picked it out I was told it wouldn’t work for one league member. So we moved it. Then one of our contingent got a job in Belgium, but he would be able to make it back over. Except that then his Belgian employers sent him to Turkey and he wouldn’t be back in Belgium until the morning of the auction. Fine – we’ll Skype him in. Except then there were plane problems and he couldn’t leave Turkey until later… And argh… I started to get that feeling that everything was crumbling around my ears.
So before I get into how the day went, the mistakes, both real and perceived, mine and others and the group as a whole, before all of that, let’s expand a little on the set-up.
Fantasy Football (NFL) is a big thing in America. I mean, in the UK, Fantasy Football (soccer) is quite big – newspapers run their leagues, Sky runs a league. There are some big prizes. But consider this – in America, during games on the scoreboards in the stadium, messages flash up to update the crowd on how many points players around the league have scored. Fantasy Football (NFL) isn’t a bit of fun around the side, it has been woven into the very fabric of the sport.
Imagine if you were reading an article in the paper about a new signing made by Chelsea in the Premier League and the end of the article had a couple of paragraphs about what the signing means for your fantasy league. That happens in America. That’s a real thing. Fantasy Football is central to the sport.
This is reflected in web options. To run your league, you can set up a free league through Yahoo or ESPN or CBS or the NFL itself, but if you’re serious you pay a website to have a fully customisable set-up, so you can change nigh on every single detail. So what do you think we’ve done?
Are we taking our hobby seriously? You bet we are. Too seriously? No such thing. OK, there is, and I am. I’m writing this aren’t I? But I am by no means the worst. Google fantasy football. Google dynasty leagues. You will disappear down a rabbit hole. People pay thousands of dollars each year to enter leagues online against strangers, with winner takes all, or most, of the prize fund. People actively seek out failing and abandoned teams (known as Orphans) for the challenge of turning them into champions.
So why such devotion, and why haven’t things gone this far with fantasy football (soccer)? I think the key is in 3 very specific things. Most North American sports can be broken down into stats very easily, and football (NFL) more than most. The number of yards running, receiving or throwing is a very simple thing to calculate, with bonus points for touchdowns. Compare that to goals and assists – the bulk of fantasy football (soccer) scoring – and you can begin to see there are more options. A typical football (soccer) match sees 3 goals – that’s very few scoring events. In the NFL each team will generate a total of 300-400 yards offence on average, with different players getting credit and earning points for those. Suddenly there’s a lot more ways to score points, and a lot more points to be scored. A canny manager has more control in fantasy football (NFL) than fantasy football (soccer).
The second reason is that in football (soccer) teams have (relatively) large squads but can only let 14 guys on the field per match. That means that your player could get rested for the big European match midweek, and you won’t know until the game kicks off. You don’t have enough information to manage your team. In the NFL, players are active for games, or inactive. The roster has 53 men in total and all could play some part, and you’ll generally know in advance if your guys will or won’t. Therefore, management is, again, more nuanced.
Finally, most fantasy football (NFL) leagues – except the one run by Sky in the UK, which follows the fantasy football (soccer) model – are set up to be individual leagues where teams compete against each other each week, building to playoffs and a superbowl, and – crucially – each player can only be owned by one team in the league. In fantasy football (soccer), everyone can field Van Persie if they want. The level of competitiveness isn’t there in fantasy football (soccer).
So that’s why it’s so great, why it’s so appealing (though having a love of NFL helps, too, of course). Now back to the DynaBowl. I set up the auction. I then had to craft some rules.
The rules. I didn’t know what I was doing. I had some ideas, but would they work. I searched the interwebs. I signed up at websites. I posted on forums. I read archives. And I wrote and I honed. My final rules, I have just found out, clock in at a scary over 7,400 words. Seriously. That’s nearly as long as the dissertation that got me my degree. And they are a fucking work of art.
I thought of everything I could. I thought of all the ways I’d try to gain an advantage and then wrote rules so I couldn’t. I made them as simple to read as possible, but they are still quite complex. We had robust conversations. Well, the people who read them did. Not everyone has yet. Still. They trust that the rules will be there when they need them. No one has found my secret loophole.
The next thing was research. I knew some players. I knew the main players. The redraft league had given me that. I didn’t know most of the defensive players. I didn’t know the depth players. I didn’t know the secret players who might have a break-out season. I didn’t know how consistent or otherwise players tended to be, with regard to point scoring. I didn’t know how much of an impact a trade or free agency signing might have. How would he fit in with the new coach’s offensive line schemes? That kind of thing. So I read lots and lots more. And I read the questions everyone else posed. And I absorbed and I came up with values I thought players would have and I came up with a strategy for who I wanted on my roster.
In the meantime, as Commissioner of the league, I had another duty. An important duty. Every league member was paying me £20 for the first year and £10 each year thereafter to run the league, pay for the site and pay for the prizes. This is not for profit. Anything that didn’t go on the site was going on the prizes, and I needed a trophy. I looked at websites, I visited trophy shops. It turned out they had all closed. I found one run out of an old man’s garage and paid him a visit. He gave me some catalogues. I was *this* close to buying a cup. It was fancy, but it came out of a magazine. It was nice, but it wasn’t special. This league needed special.
A friend of mine makes art and models. Things like dragons and fawns and night elves. They are really, really good. We were chatting about stuff in general and I mentioned the league and the trophy search and I suddenly realised – maybe, if paid enough, she could create the ideal trophy.
Amongst my friends, the NFL championship is referred to as the Owl. Not just any Owl, the Superb Owl. I commissioned my friend to produce a Superb Owl for me. And it is fucking superb. See for yourself:
The Owl on display in the DynaBowl League Trophy Room
See… superb. I teased the league in the build-up to the auction, but I didn’t let them know what I had done. It was to be a surprise.
Anyway, back to the best of times, the worst of times. We were meeting in Sheffield. I don’t live in Sheffield. I live a long way from Sheffield. I allowed an hour longer for my journey than was suggested. It was a beautiful day and everyone else was on the road. I used up all of my hour and arrived at the pub at about 5 minutes past midday. 5 minutes late. Not a good precedent. Fortunately we were waiting for others to arrive too. I didn’t keep too many people waiting.
We got into the pub, relaxed with a drink before getting started, and then went to our ‘function’ room to set up. It was a decent room. A good size for all of us. Unfortunately we all had at least one laptop and/or iPad, and we were using a projector. And, as discussed, it was a lovely day. That room got hot, quick. We were promised a fan. It never arrived. It would have just moved hot air around anyway. It wasn’t a huge loss.
So once we set up I unveiled the Owl to gasps of delight, and flashes of cameras from the local press.
My one chance to proudly hold up the Owl
And then we got down to business. I wanted a bit of pageantry. We drew marbles in an FA Cup style to determine who called the next player for auction (we stuck with the same order throughout, we didn’t do this every single time). The first person called was Neil. Neil had no idea who he wanted to nominate. It was an inauspicious start.
Once Neil had nominated the bidding got under way and, with the help of a broken chair leg for a gavel, I announced the sale closed. The player, Cam Newton, quarterback for the Caroline Panthers and general all-round stud player. He was bought by Mike for $50. Mike subsequently revealed that he had not planned to spend $50 on a quarterback or to bid on Cam Newton. This is what the pressure of a live auction can do to a man. By the end, I think we had all experienced this to one extreme or another.
This process went on. Most people had no idea who they wanted to nominate each time it came round to them. I was probably the worst for it. I was juggling running the auction, entering all the sales into a database, keeping people up to date with how much they had spent AND trying to buy players for my own team. There was too much happening. It is now 3 weeks later and I still haven’t fully recovered my brain function. I made a lot of mistakes. But before we get to those, let’s stop a moment to watch a lengthy video of the first round of purchases being made.
As you can see, I am well placed to take up a professional auctioneering job, should commissioning fall through.
I am going to go into detail (“What?!? This isn’t detail yet???” – you) around my strategy and how I messed up and what I felt about the way in which things went from a buying players perspective, but first I wanted to talk more generally about what I learned from doing this whole thing.
PRACTICAL LESSONS
1) If you’re thinking about doing something like this – a live auction with a bunch of friends – always err on the side of caution with regards to time. We had estimated that we’d start of at 30-40 players per hour – that’s one player sold every 90-120 seconds – and would get up to somewhere between one player every 30-60 seconds.
We thought big names would go first, with lots of bidding, hence the longer time-frames, and then we’d get down to a lot of $1-3 players – barely any bidding. This wasn’t the case. As I mentioned before, most of the time people didn’t know who they were nominating next. There were lots of players that got a “Who?” reaction around the table which meant, before bidding could commence everyone had to look them up – their name, team, position, past performance – and then make a snap decision to bid or not. It all added up.
For 500 players to be sold off, we’d probably need to have started at 9am and gone for 12+ hours. As it was we went from 1pm until about 7:30pm as the last train from Sheffield for some team managers left at around 8pm.
I never thought we would be done by 8pm, but even if we’d stayed until 11pm, closing time, we wouldn’t have made it to 500 players.
Let’s get down to bizniz
2) Have a contingency. If there’s a risk that you might not be able to get through the whole thing in one day, have a plan for what you do next. We had to make one up pretty much on the spot. Those who could stay on talked in the bar about how to sort it and then I had to figure out the finer details.
To explain what we did, we took the positions one by one (or in a couple of cases, grouped them together). People submitted a list in preference order along with their maximum bid and some vague instructions (like “If you get X, don’t bid on Y”). I then collated all of that information and worked out who got which player. Teams went into a ‘first-preference’ order to break ties, dropping the team who won the player to last on the list.
It was a complex process and more gut than scientific to be honest. The complications over person A put player X 5th on his list and bid $10 while person B put them 1st with a bid of $8 (and that’s very much a simple example) meant I had to bring my own interpretation to it.
I like to think that during my time in leagues with the other GMs means that I am trusted as being fair and rational and impartial in these situations and that’s why it worked. I wasn’t questioned once about where the players ended up and for how much, though the big difference in player evaluations made that easier – there weren’t many instances of teams ending up with their 10th choice on their list.
Still, I would recommend having some kind of plan set up and agreed in advance.
Phil’s about to buy someone – that’s what I had just decided
3) Have some kind of contingency for if someone can’t attend. Who knows what can happen, especially when you set your auction date so far in advance. We were caught out by one member’s job situation taking him to the other side of the continent and we mad as good a stab at covering for him as possible.
I bought him a few players – none that I was targeting myself of course – when the info he had managed to send through at short notice seemed a bit shallow. He couldn’t have known that the values for the players he had given me would go above his maximum, and there was no ability to adjust on the fly so I took some decisions.
This wouldn’t work with a different group of people, which is why a more robust plan should be in place before it goes ahead, just in case.
In the end, he’s ended up with, arguably, a decent but not great. At least he’ll be competitive and, as Commissioner, it’s in my interest to make sure the league as a whole and all teams individually remain competitive.
The look of a man who wants to show the Racists how to properly build a roster
4) Try to find somewhere with air conditioning.
5) Get someone to be auctioneer. Someone who is not buying a team. I managed to pull together a pretty decent team, but I made a fair few mistakes along the way and didn’t follow my plan. Not having to run the auction itself would have allowed me to pay more attention to the bids I was making and how much I was spending.
On a related note, if you can rope 2 people in (and I get that getting someone to be auctioneer could be hard enough), then having someone separate to enter all the sale details as you go would be ideal.
James plots his next move
AUCTION LESSONS
1) Defensive players. No one knew how to value them. The big names went for big bucks, and that’s fair. Robert Quinn and JJ Watt are behemoths and will score more than anyone else on defense, but all my researched showed that the next tier below tended to be a) very similar in performance and b) relatively inconsistent. This means that paying for the 7th best linebacker last season is basically the same as paying for the 25th best linebacker last season.
Why, then, did I make Ryan Shazier my most expensive defensive player, at $16? He’s a rookie linebacker. He may be terrible – he’s never played one professional snap – and yet I made him the joint 8th most expensive linebacker.
Just by way of comparison, I got Kyle WIlliams, the best performing defensive tackle (DT) in 2013 (by 24 points) for $6. Each team only needs to field 1 DT, but can field 2. If we assume that every team fields 1 and there’s even skill distribution (and there isn’t, as I have 3 of the top 10 from 2013), Williams scored 70 points more than the fifth best DT in 2013, and 89.5 more than the 10th.
It’s no guarantee of future performance of course, but that’s potentially a substantial point advantage, especially when you consider the most expensive DT went for $26.
We won’t see just how good that purchase was, or how inconsistent the scoring turns out to be for defensive players until the season takes place, but I think it’s clear this is the area we knew the least about and were least prepared for. Those contracts will even out over time as they need to be renewed or players hit free agency, but for now they are all over the place.
Everyone is focused on what matters most to them. To Ian, that’s the camera.
2) Quarterbacks. In any given week there are up to 32 players starting as QB across the league. This league requires exactly 10 to start each week. There are some excellent QBs out there who can score a lot of points, however, given the requirement to start 3 or 4 WRs and 2 or 3 RBs which means that those pools of major talent would be in high demand, I had decided my strategy was to pay low fo QBs and spend on performers in those positions.
I was right, as well. I could have picked up Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo – three players with several top 10 fantasy seasons behind them – for a combined $25.
Unfortunately, I spent $64 on my three QBs – one of whom is Ryan – but the other two are overpriced gambles, RG3 and Johnny Manziel. RG3 could be a top 3 player – he was 5th in his rookie season and only 27 points behind Drew Brees in 1st – but his injury record and inconsistent play in his second season show the direction this gamble could take.
I’m not unhappy to have RG3. I actually think his upside is more likely and he’ll be a great player to watch this season, but I’d rather have spent less and invested the extra money in WRs or RBs.
Related to this, Aaron Rodgers, arguably the best QB in the league and with many seasons ahead of him, was the highest valued player at the auction, sold for $77. Given the prices for other players, this to me was an overspend. Despite being a Packers fan, I had ruled out going for Rodgers before the auction because I thought he’d be too expensive and I think I was proved right.
Ultimately this boils down to how many points can, say, $40 buy you? (Matt Stafford scored 1.5 points per game fewer than Aaron Rodgers in 2013, 4 fewer in 2012, and cost $44 less at auction). Could the investment of $20 in two RBs or WRs net you a gain of more than 4 points per game over the players actually bought? I think that’s entirely possible. If I had spent $40 less on my QBs, as I intended, I would have invested in a couple of other bigger players.
But hey, it’ll all come out in the wash, and maybe the Tamworth Two, who paid that $77 for Rodgers, will be proven right with a trip to the Owl.
Geoff doesn’t think much of David’s purchase, while James counts his pennies for the Rodgers purchase.
3) Rookies. This was the foundation of my plan. I had read theories around structuring a dynasty roster which said it was a better strategy to go for longer term, don’t look to go for year one. Why? Because a team that is built to win from year 1 rarely has the depth to win for much longer afterwards and so requires immediate work to rebuild. By investing in youth (younger studs too, not just rookies), you hopefully prime your team to be stacked for years to come. This strategy may have a sneaky added advantage of giving you a bad finish in season 1 and so netting you a high draft pick in the first rookie draft too.
I went after this big time, with a combination of rookies who had high upside (Jordan Matthews at Philadelphia, for example) and those I thought were assured to be at the least very solid for years to come (Brandin Cooks, New Orleans). I also threw the dice in a couple of areas. At Tight End (TE) I have taken 4 young guys who may or may not come to something. If one of them hits to any degree I should be in a good position.
Of course, there are no guarantees any of these guys hit, and that’s why I also made sure to grab some guys who were proven to some degree, but had years ahead of them. AJ Green of the Bengals was my main purchase, the second most expensive player at auction at $71, and alongside him I picked up some second and third year guys who can hopefully break out this year. At least I know they can already perform to a reasonable standard in the league.
Finally, I grabbed a couple of veteran WRs cheap in the post-auction portion of proceedings. Anquan Boldin and James Jones should provide something for at least a year. They may not set the world on fire, but they provide options.
The same kind of thing with RBs, except here I tried to pair guys up. I only succeeded with 49ers veteran and rookie combo of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, but I still feel I have a good mix of experience, youth and rookies, along with a couple of players who could surprise or could just disappear.
It may all backfire, of course, with nary a stud between them, but I can’t imagine all of them busting. Even if they don’t all become studs, there should be enough players with a good future ahead of them to keep me in with a shout for a few years.
David is shocked at the Flacco valuation while Ian intently ignores him
4) Contracts. Of course, the one thing I had forgotten to factor in was contracts. We have a limit as to the number of contract years that can be assigned at the start which means that some/many of these players will need renewing or releasing in a year or two. If I offer short term contracts to young players I run the risk of not being able to afford to keep them when that time comes around, but if I offer them longer contracts and they bust, I end up wasting money on them. It’s a fine balance, but one that effects everyone. The potential issue with all the rookies is if too many of them do too well too early and I can’t afford to keep them all, but that would be a nice problem to have and one I’ll worry about if or when it comes up.
Chris looks studious – you’d not guess he’s from Manchester
5) Other teams. It was really good to see the variety of approaches taken and I was very pleased by the balance across the league. I think some teams are better than others, but there’s no one there who will be either winning or losing all their games this year. I was concerned some teams might end in a terrible state and that poor balance might lead to managers wanting to leave the league but I don’t think there’s a risk of that. I have my own favourites for the title this year, but I think it’s pretty wide open. Despite my plans for the future, I think I stand a chance of the playoffs this season, and if that’s achieved, who knows what will happen?
So overall it’s been a great deal of fun so far, and it’s opened my eyes to a lot of things. It could have been a farce and, in many ways, it was a bit, but we’ve ridden through the storm and now can’t wait to get down to the real business, when we see just how wrong we were about the players we bought.
Laughter after David unveils an hilarious stat about Colin Kaepernick
Trapped in an ethereal plain in a dimension outside of the human reality, it was impossible to conduct this interview face to face with The 4th Dynmension’s supremo Geoffrey Manboob (GM). Therefore, resident Dynabowl beat writer Jaunty Coving (JC) had to conduct the interview through disgraced local Sheffield psychic, Alain C’Untface (AC).
“Fill me up.”
JC: Good Morning Alain, are you ready to start? How does this work?
AC: Ah, Jaunty. Let me light these candles and we can get started. Close the curtains, would you old thing and we can begin.
JC: OK
AC: I’m starting to sense a presence. Hello? Spirits of the afterlife, do you hear me? I mean you no harm. I have come to speak with the one they call Manboob. Geoffrey, are you there? Let me be your vessel to our reality. Speak through me!
JC: Is it working?
AC: I can feel you Geoffrey. Come deep inside me. Fill me up. Let us become one.
AC starts convulsing violently, writhing around on the floor. Suddenly he stops and sits up still.
GM: Hello Dave.
JC: Mr Manboob, is that you?
GM: Yes Dave, it is I.
JC: Well shall we begin?
“I can count up to 50.”
JC: How do you feel your experience in the Chatterbowl has helped you coming into the DynaBowl?
GM: Look, the Chatterbowl and DynaBowl are completely different beasts. It’s like comparing oranges with… blood oranges. What I do have is a wealth of experience following the game (circa 25 years) and a real love of all things defensive. Having said that I have shown in the Chatterbowl that I can successfully tank and trade away anyone for future draft picks. The “Dynasty of Sadness” will always be building for the future and about two seasons away from a great roster.
JC: You’ve developed something of a bitter rivalry with David Slater [GM of the Dynasore Losers]. Are you looking forward to renewing the rivalry twice a year?
GM: It’s appropriate that D-Slatz is a Jets fan because green is certainly a colour that suits him. I’m not a massive fan of jealousy, but I admire that it’s a trait he has in spades (that and flouncing out of the huddle). I’m happy that I’m able to inspire him to reach the dizzying heights of mediocrity. In doing that at least I’m also helping the league improve. Literally dragging him up by his boot straps.
What Would Jason Campbell Do?
JC: How are the auction preparations coming along? The dynasty auction is very different from the drafts you’ve previously been involved in.
GM: Pretty well, Dave. I’ve checked and I can count up to 50 so I’m well ahead of at least half of the league in that respect. It’s building momentum so I’ll be ready come draft day.
JC: And do you have any specific players you are looking to sign to the roster?
GM: Skill positions are going to be key so don’t be surprised if I grab 2 punters and 2 kickers with my first 4 picks. Having said that, Jason Campbell sits top of my draft board. Only a fool wouldn’t have him there
JC: What’s a realistic goal for your team this season?
GM: Tank and tank hard. We’ll sink quicker than a Korean ferry.
Chopsticks + Wildcard = Danger
JC: You’ve been appointed Deputy Commissioner for the league, are you excited about the possibilities that this brings? Do you think it calls into question the judgement of Commissioner Benjamin Hendy?
GM: “Bendy” clearly has terrible judgement, look at the rabble he’s recruited for this league. However, I’m sure we’ll work well in tandem to mete out swift justice to those who play against the rule. I will literally be the iron fist to his velvet glove.
JC: Who do you think is the most dangerous coach out there?
GM: Rumour has it that Chris is a member of the KKK, so he has to be up there. Mark is 1/8th Native American and I’ve seen him catch a fly with some chopsticks. Phil is definitely the wildcard. All three are a danger to themselves and probably anyone else in their vicinity.
JC: And finally, do you have any specific messages for the rest of the league prior to the auction?
GM: Dave, would you like to buy some pegs?
JC: Geoffrey Manboob, thank you for your time. It’s been an absolute pleasure.
GM: Thank you Dave, you’re my wife now… Give me your ring!