Tag: DynaBowl

Ian Kulkowski’s 2014 Rookie Valuation Rankings

Guest submission from DynaBowl GM Ian Kulkowski

The previous article and the upcoming Dynabowl Rookie draft got me thinking about the value of rookies.  This is an area that if a GM gets right could be the key to long term Dynabowl success which after all is what we all crave.  In 20 years time the only thing that will matter is the numbers of Championships you have won.

The 10 Dynabowl GM’s have employed different strategies when it comes to building their rosters. Some have taken a ‘win now’ approach (Firebirds, Losers, Kelkowski) and applied a correspondingly low value to rookies.  Some have taken the ‘dominate in the future’ approach (Bombermen, Dyna Hard, CotS) and have loaded their rosters with potential and don’t mind paying for it.  Some have taken the radical ‘win never’ approach (Sadness) and loaded up on valuable Safeties.

Which will turn out to be the triumphant strategy only time will tell.  Or maybe there is no correct way, maybe it’s all just down to dumb luck in the end.

One thing we do know going into the 2015 rookie draft is what the initial costs of our drafted rookies will be.  There’s a handy table in the rules section of the Dynabowl website (www.dynabowl.com) –

Pick Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
1 $20, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
2 $19, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
3 $18, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
4 $17, 4 years $10, 3-4 years $6, 2-3 years $3, 1-3 years
5 $16, 4 years $9, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
6 $15, 4 years $9, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
7 $14, 4 years $9, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
8 $13, 4 years $8, 3-4 years $5, 2-3 years $2, 1-3 years
9 $12, 4 years $8, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years
10 $11, 4 years $7, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years
11 $11, 4 years $7, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years
12 $11, 4 years $7, 3-4 years $4, 2-3 years $1, 1-3 years (and all deeper picks)

So I thought if I applied to these costs to each of the rookies selected in 2014, ranked by their initial auction value I could somehow gage where, if at all any value could be achieved.

Round 1

Pick 1 – Sammy Watkins

Auction value $37, Rookie Value $20

Watkins was one of the highest ranked rookies going into last season (behind only Sankey possibly) so it’s no surprise he attained the highest auction value.  At $37 this is way above what he would cost as a rookie.  Watkins was the 26th ranked WR in our game last year with 133 points which in any normal season would be stellar for a rookie.  Still Watkins will likely improve and should become a fixture in the top 20 WR’s.  If he ever had someone decent throwing to him his value would be even greater.

So the conclusion is if you’d taken Watkins with the first pick at $20 I think you’d be pretty happy with the value you’d got.  See where I’m going with this now?  No?  Not sure I do either.  Anyway….

Pick 2 – Brandin Cooks

Auction value $33, Rookie Value $19

The second highest ranked  rookie WR prior to last year’s draft was probably Cooks, especially given his nice landing spot with the Saints.  The $33 the Bombermen paid is again more than the $19 the 2nd pick in the rookie draft would have cost. Cooks ended up as the 59th ranked WR last year with just 88 points.  This came however in an injury shortened season where Cooks missed the last 6 games with a broken thumb.  His per game points were 8.8 ranking him 25th amongst WRs.  Looking forward Cooks is now the only receiver remaining in New Orleans so has tremendous potential, however the future remains unclear for the Saints so it’s difficult to judge how good a position being their no. 1 WR will be going forward.

At $19 though I think you would be pretty pleased with your investment of the no. 2 pick in Cooks.

Pick 3 – Teddy Bridgeater

Auction value $30, Rookie Value $18

Manboob clearly has the biggest mancrush on Teddy.  It makes me sick.  Of last season’s rookie QB’s he was probably most people’s no 1 by a small margin though I doubt many would have him ranked as the no. 3 rookie.  Bridgeeater was the 22nd ranked QB last season behind the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith and just ahead of Kyle Orton.  He should improve this season and possibly trouble the top 10-15 QB’s.

$18 would represent reasonable value for Bridgeeater, there are however a number of ‘safe’ older top 15 QB’s in our league who cost much less (Rapistberger $8, Tannehill $2, Manning $1, Romo $4) so maybe using the pick differently would be wiser.

Pick 4 – Mike Evans

Auction Value $30, Rookie Value $17

Evans had an exceptional season as a rookie last year finishing as the no. 10 overall WR in our game with 177 points.  He has the opportunity to improve this season with a potentially improved QB situation with Heisman trophy winner and No.1 overall pick in this years NFL Jameis Winston behind center.

Evans is up there with the elite WR’s straight away so $17 represents exceptional value.

Pick 5 – Carlos Hyde

Auction Value $28, Rookie Value $16

Hyde was backup to Frank Gore in his rookie season with the 49ers hence he ended up as the 50th ranked running back with 69 points.  With Gore now gone Hyde will get his chance as feature back so this year will be when his value is revealed.  If Hyde doesn’t produce competition will come from Reggie Bush so he’s by no means a cert.

Determining Hyde’s value is difficult at this stage.  If he makes the 49ers backfield his own and ends up as a top 15-20 back then the $16 investment is worthwhile.  If he ends up in a committee then that price may not end up looking that good.

Pick 6 – Bishop Sankey

Auction Value $22, Rookie Value $15

Sankey was the no.1 ranked rookie going into last season but didn’t achieve that position amongst our rookies.  We must have known something as Sankey disappointed last year finishing 43rd amongst RB’s despite being the lead back at Tennessee.  He will get another shot as the lead back but will be on a shorter leash with this year’s 5th round pick David Cobb competing for time in the Titans backfield.

At this point $15 looks like poor value as there is a big chance Sankey could be a bust.

Pick 7 – Johnny Football

Auction Value $21, Rookie Value $14

Manziel’s rookie season was a disaster as he failed spectacularly to live up to the hype and spent the majority of the season as backup to Brian Hoyer for the Browns, ending up with a stint in rehab.  It’s doubtful whether Manziel will make any impact this or any year although competition in Cleveland is never too fierce so his time may come one day.

Currently Manziel has very little dynasty value so $14 would be wasted.

Pick 8 – Jadeveon Clowney

Auction Value $20, Rookie Value $13

The no. 1 overall pick in last year’s NFL draft Clowney was unsurprisingly the highest priced rookie defender in our auction.  Last year was a write off for Clowney after having two lots of surgery on his knee.  Health will continue to be a question going into the 2015 season and it remains to be seen if Clowney can get back to where he was.  If he does he will surely cement himself amongst the top LB’s in the game.

A fit Clowney should be amongst the top scoring LB’s but does $13 represent good value even here?  Probably just about although if you look at the top scoring LB’s from last season only 5 of the top 25 cost more than $4 with most costing only $1.

Pick 9 – Ryan Shazier

Auction Value $19, Rookie Value $12

A surprise pick at no. 9 in our draft it’s fair to say the Steelers 1st round pick was probably not regarded as one of the top fantasy prospects.  Like Clowney Shazier suffered with injuries in his debut season reducing him to only a handful of starts making it impossible to make a judgment at this stage.

Similarly to Clowney if Shazier delivers a fully fit season he could be amongst the top LB’s.  It is however doubtful whether this is enough to represent value at $12.

Pick 10 – Tre Mason

Auction Value $16, Rookie Value $11

Mason was amongst the top RB prospects in last year’s rookie class and ended up rounding out our first round of rookies.  After quickly usurping Zac Stacy & Benny Cunningham atop the Rams RB depth chart Mason performed well finishing 27th amongst RB’s despite not playing in the first 5 games.  Going into 2015 Mason again finds himself 2nd on the Rams depth chart behind this year’s first round pick (and best of class amongst 2015 rookie backs) Todd Gurley.  He undoubtedly has the ability to be a serviceable back but the situation doesn’t look great for the time being in St Louis.

At $11 Mason was decent value last year but the situation in St Louis makes the future uncertain.

Kommish Komment Korner

It’s worth noting that all of these players (I believe – I’ve not researched this Komment) were taken in the auction and the rookies taken in the post-auction roster filling exercise went much, much cheaper. Partially this was down to the by-then depleted finances of franchises but it was also, I believe, influenced by the fact that people were not directly bidding against each other. It is much easier to say “$19” for Ryan Shazier when someone has just said “$18” directly before you than it is to say “I’ll pay a maximum of $20 for Shazier” when you have no idea what else is also going on. The roster-filling stage had lots of bet-hedging going on and players went much cheaper than at auction. At least that’s how I’m explaining my overspending.

Mock Draft 3.0 – James ‘Goody’ Goodson of the Tamworth Two

1.1 Dynahard pick Todd Gurley.

Dynahard’s draft will most likely be focused on improving depth initially at RB and then WR to compliment Antonio Brown. An ageing Jamaal Charles on a hefty salary, will be compensated by going for the next best dynasty RB in Gurley. You may not see the early production with his torn ACL and where he’s landed meaning splitting carries, but Gurley will be a long term pick and provide franchise value in a position that is often a lottery. Dynahard may also go with Gordon to get his early level production, however, slightly lower on long term value, I see Gurley as much more complementary to having Charles on the roster.

1.2 Dynasty of Sadness pick Melvin Gordon

The Sadness have 2 studs at WR, with very little need in this position over the next couple of years, as long as they stay healthy. This makes their pick relatively straight forward with Gordon filling a need as The Sadness have no RB1 on their books.

1.3 Dungeoneers chose Kevin White

EFD have little depth at RB or WR so it wouldn’t be unusual to see them freeing up some salary space and trading up in the top 15 picks for some potential studs. They’ll need someone with a high ceiling and not many players have that combined with a landing spot as good as White. I wouldn’t be surprised to see EFD try to trade up to snag Gordon or Gurley based on the depth on offer at WR.

1.4 Tamworth Two pick Amari Cooper

While the main need for the TT is at punter or kicker, choosing this position on the 4th pick may arguably be considered reaching by some. Strengthening at RB during free agency with Stewart provides a little cushion in this position. TT would probably be happy at this stage with Cooper, although would also be derided with him making 3 Oakland receivers being on their books.

1.5 Here Comes the Brees pick Tevin Coleman

Relatively controversial, the Brees lack an elite option at both RB and WR, and were most affected by the draft with Brees’ players falling down the depth charts. Most notably, the Rams option on Gurley to share carries with Tre Mason and Falcons picking Coleman, resulted in two fantasy RB1s rapidly turn in to RB2s Gurley would have gone by now, so logically, to make the most of their situation, Coleman offers a safer pick and guarantees Brees get the majority of the points from the Falcons running game. Another option here, could be DGB who undoubtedly offer a higher long term ceiling. Unfortunately that’s a far higher risk for the 5th pick. I doubt they’ll trust TJ Yeldon at Jacksonville, as although a 3 down back, the blocking scheme there isn’t as proven. Don’t be surprised again to see Brees trade up if Gurley or Gordon are available.

1.6 Bombermen choose Breshad Perriman

The Bombermen have done an excellent job of using cap room to fill significant weaknesses across the board, resulting in their roster being misleadingly better then their draft pick suggests. At this stage, they may not be after top talent but the attractiveness of Perriman’s landing spot at the Ravens may be too hard to pass over. While trading down is a legitimate option for them, a Torrey Smith replacement and possible WR1 is a relative no brainer. Combined with the potential to pair with Flacco on their roster, his deep ball threat and Perriman’s ability to stretch the field, this could result in a some big fantasy weeks.

1.7 KDPBNDR choose Nelson Agholor

Apart from having an awful team name KDPBNDRs also struggle with some negative impact from the draft across their roster. The move of Maclin to Kansas seriously curtails his fantasy value, with his deep threat off set by Alex Smith’ inability to throw more than 7 yards. Agholor fills this need and could be a steal at 7 considering his upside and relative early points potential in Chip Kelly’s offence. The Eagles lose and gain a deep level threat and KDPBNDRs should seek to take advantage.

While a RB may be on the cards too due to the movement of Matthews and Murray to the Eagles, they still have depth at this position, especially as Zac Stacy’s value increases now he is at the Jets.

Winston and Mariota may fill a long term need at QB but questions on Winston’s character, and Mariota’s lack of experience in a pro style offence and his fit at Titans mean too much risk is with them for a first round pick.

1.8 The Losers pick Dorial Green-Beckham

A contentious pick because the Losers have a serious dearth of RB talent, however, D Slatz gushing of the big receiver can’t go unheard and I am sure he will look for a player like David Cobb from a deep RB class, in round 2 to fulfil his RB needs. DGB will be a high risk/reward feature and goes straight in to being a WR1 on the Titans roster. It may not be the most straight forward pick but negates some future issues with Larry Fitzgerald being on the roster for only 1 more season. I doubt TJ Yeldon will be available at 2.8 and DGB will be too good to turn down here.

1.9 Champions of the Sun choose TJ Yeldon

This pick is motivated by the Vikings decision to retain Adrian Peterson and the Browns drafting yet another RB early on. The roster remains relatively strong with some nice depth on defence but as much as the 2015 RB class is a deep one, it doesn’t cover the fact that Yeldon lands as a 3 down back in a Jags offence that possesses a more varied attack and an experienced QB than before. This will adequately cover the loss of points. While Duke Johnson could be an option with the , you would really have to be glutton for punishment to suggest he will outscore Yeldon and rely on the entire Brown’s run game to get you to the next level of Dynasty football.

1.10 Firebirds choose Leonard Williams

I was tempted to go with Ameer Abdullah but the real value in round 1 dynasty picks lies with players you know will produce for the entire length of their contract considering they are 3 or 4 year commitments. While Abdullah was the third best RB on many experts boards, according to pro football focus’ analysis, he’s one of the worst blockers so he’ll be splitting carries with Joique Bell until he improves.

Williams will improve on the already adequate DE cover in the roster but will provide an immediate upgrade in production and long term stability in that position over his contract. This pick won’t be as glamorous as the rest but we will see the Champions improve on an already good roster.

2.1 Dynahard choose Devante Parker.

Overlooking the pressing need to fill the DT position, Dynahard go for the best long term offensive position still on the board and will gladly snap him up. A lot of talk suggests Parker will initially be the WR4 on Miami’s books with Landry (slot), Jennings and Stills all ahead of him on the depth chart. This is not to say he won’t end up being a WR1 one day, even 10 games in, especially with an ageing Jennings. But with Tannehill’s dubious deep threat skills (highlighted by Wallace’s frustrating season last year) and a playbook in the redzone more suited to slot receivers (such as Landry’s target count) there are doubts on whether Parker’s high draft pedigree reflects his fantasy potential. Dynahard should snap this pick up.

2.2 The Sadness choose Ameer Abdullah

Trent Richardson is as useful as a chocolate fireguard so expect the sadness to take advantage of the deep RB class and their poor depth in that position. Abdullah may split carries with Joique Bell, but he is on The Sadness’ roster making this a smart handcuff. They’ll be able to make the most out of the decisions with who will get the majority of the carries in the Lions’ backfield making this a low risk option in a position offset by insecurities. It may be a risk to hedge your bets, but replacing Reggie Bush’s touches will see a nice upside in Detroit, plus none of the other available RBs (Cobb, Ajayi, both Johnsons) offer as much upside as Abdullah, with the handcuff potential.

2.3 The Dungeoneers pick Jamais Winston.

The first QB pick off the board goes to the team with the highest risk at the position. Brees, one of the most reliable in the league now sees his main weapon and red zone threat gone, with more emphasis and investment in the Saints running game. Foles won’t have the same available receiver group in St Louis, who will be setting their game around their newly acquired RB. I choose Winston over Mariota based on his pro ready collegiate career over the Titans signalcaller. Mike Evans is a top 16 receiver, and even if he suffers a sophomore slump, V Jacks is still there.

2.4 Tamworth Two choose David Cobb

Resisting the urge to choose a punter, the TT stupidly choose to balance things out with an RB. I’m convinced that David Johnson, Duke Johnson and Jay Ajayi offer much more upside. Duke falls in a Brown’s that just don’t know when to stop running. Ajayi was ranked as a top RB prior to some knee concerns. And David looks set to be a feature back at the Cardinals, a team who often split loads with Ellington. It may be a lower risk, but with some RB depth, TT may see this as a sensible pick.

2.5 The Sadness pick Shane Ray

Another pick for the Sadness sees them improve their terrible DE depth. Ray is a sensible pick in a dynamic Broncos defense. With attention on their other pass rushers and line backers, Ray may see a productive start, assuming he gets over any turf toe injury.

2.6 The Bombermen choose Danny Shelton.

The acquisition of Cameron Wake in FA helped stop a gap for a year or two and cover one of the two largest flaws in the Bombermen’s roster. Danny Shelton, the highest ranked DT will immediately slot in a Brown’s defence who were ranked 32nd last year against the run. He’ll have plenty of opportunity to rack up tackles in Cleveland.

2.7 KDPBNDR choose Maxx Williams

Lacking any significant tight end, KDPBNDR nab the top ranked TE in a relatively shallow class. Notoriously low scorers in their first seasons as the rookie TEs get to grips with both the throwing game and the blocking responsibilities, Williams could be a massive risk, however, in a relative strong roster it may be worth taking, especially if they can acquire more experienced TE at a later date to cover the immediate season.

2.8 The Losers pick Duke Johnson.

Again, the RBs in this tier appear to be evenly spread, but Duke will enter a offence set up for the run rather than the pass. His Florida college, have a great reputation in producing pro ready RBs so don’t be surprised if the rookie ousts Crowell and West (who both offered less than 4ypc) to be their feature back. Johnson will the choice of DGB previously picked.

2.9 Here Comes the Brees pick Dante Fowler Junior.

While it’s tempting to take a shot at another WR, Brees don’t have an elite option as an edge rusher. Fowler slots in nicely.

2.10 The Bombermen chose David Johnson.

To take advantage of having Ellington, the Bombermen conveniently pick up Johnson. Although they don’t need another RB, or any other position for that matter, taking a gamble on a deep WR class is a gamble worth taking.

Mock Draft 1.0

So we’re only 2 weeks and 3 days away from the beginning of the draft. The NFL draft that is. We’re still over 2 months from the DynaBowl draft or, as we like to call it, the main event.

Anyway, given we have no idea where the rookies are going – something that will have a large impact on the desirability of some players, I mean, do you want to draft a Cleveland Brown? – it seems like the ideal time to have some wild stabs in the dark as to who will select which player when.

First up to the plate (nothing like mixing our American sports, it’s Dyna Hard.

FIRST ROUND

1. Dyna Hard – Todd Gurley – RB

The consensus top prospect and Dyna Hard doesn’t buck the trend. Sure, Jamaal Charles and Alfred Morris are already in town, but Charles won’t last forever – rumour has it Hard are willing to trade him and given his cap hit that’s not surprising – and depth at RB is always good. It’s a limited position and Gurley is a great prospect. That said, don’t rule out Hard moving down in the draft to cut a precious few dollars from the rookie cap hit, perhaps storing up picks for 2016.

2. The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness – Melvin Gordon – RB

This was a difficult call. DoS are weak all over the pitch, barring a couple of big stars at WR in Bryant and OBJ. Perhaps the thought will be trying to find a third big star at WR to possibly create the most fearsome receiving corps in the league, but with such little talent at RB, Gordon seems too good an option to pass up. Again, moving back to try and accumulate picks isn’t out of the question if DoS see the right offer coming in.

3. East Flanders Dungeoneers – Kevin White – WR

The Dungeoneers have quietly built an impressive running back stable so would most likely pass on the top two prospects even if one of them fell this low. No, WR is where the need is, a position where ‘underperformance’ was the new ‘performance’ in 2014. White did himself plenty of favours with the watching public at the combine and leapt up plenty of draft boards, and I’m willing to bet that the Dungeoneers’ was one of them.

4. Tamworth Two – Devante Parker – WR

Tamworth may like the idea of jumping up a couple of slots to pick up a RB now that McCoy and Jackson are in the same town, but with Jeffrey, Landry and Wallace as the top 3 WRs, they may fancy staying put and taking their favoured player. If only one WR is off the board, Tamworth should be happy. The conventional move would be to go for Cooper, but he’s been slipping on boards recently and with the DynaBowl being a non-PPR league he loses further shine. Add to that the possibility of Cooper landing in Cleveland and you have a perfect storm for a player dropping like a stone. Parker is a great prospect, don’t get me wrong, and Tamworth will be delighted to get their man.

5. Her Comes The Brees – Leonard Williams – DE

Having sold defensive playmaker Marcell Dareus to move up to this position (along with gaining DeSean Jackson and a swap up in the 4th too), the Brees take Williams who they hope will prove to be a JJ Watt-style outlier. People have called Williams the best player in the draft, but he’s been taking some knocks recently. This is a gamble but if it pays off it could help the Brees back to the Bowl.

6. Dynablaster Bombermen – Amari Cooper – WR

A relative no-brainer for the Bombermen, Cooper is the best prospect left on the board and one the Bombermen will be surprised is still available. Given the depth of young WR talent on the Bombermen roster, this may be a case of reluctantly taking a player though. If Cooper falls this low, don’t be surprised if they try to move down, cashing in the pick to a more WR-needy team.

7. Kelkowski… – Jameis Winston – QB

With only QBs of either questionable health or questionable talent on the books, Kelkowski decide to take a chance on one with questionable character instead. Having missed out on the top tier of talent and with good depth at both RB and WR, they see this as a great spot to lock up a franchise QB who might live through a season without being terrible.

8. Dynasore Losers – Dorial Green-Beckham – WR

This was a tough call. The Losers are a candidate to move up to grab a player of their choice – a RB might be desirable but with AP surely coming back and Matt Forte still going strong, depth at WR seems more important. After Jordy Nelson things are shaky – Peyton fell away and points dried up for Sanders, Gordon may not play again, Torrey Smith is going to try to catch balls from Colin Kaepernick. DGB is a risk but with the right landing spot could turn out to be a beast.

9. Champions of the Sun – Breshad Perriman – WR

On a name basis, this was a candidate for Kelkowski. The fastest WR at the combine has caught the eye of the Champions (not to be confused with the champions, who pick at 10). The Champions will also be tempted by the backs but with McKinnon and Spiller both looking to build in newly won positions or at new teams, the depth should be enough.

10. DynaForOne Firebirds – Dante Fowler – DE

Some people think he’ll go before Williams and could be just as disruptive a defensive player. The Firebirds are stacked at WR and with Lynch and Anderson at RB take the risk at getting a 10-year, top 10 player at his position. Or that’s what they hope. The offence was a beast last year, this pick could give the defense the same kick.

SECOND ROUND

1. Dyna Hard – Danny Shelton – DT

Hard would really like a WR here but the value has gone from that market and having gone RB early they’re not looking to take another. Instead they look to the top tackle in the draft to pair with JJ Watt. If this scenario were to happen, expect the Hards to be very keen to trade back for a WR.

2. DoS – Ameer Abdullah – RB

The Sadness, on the other hand, are happy to take a second RB, bolstering their numbers. It’s a case of BPA from here on in.

3. East Flanders Dungeoneers – Marcus Mariota – QB

The Dungeoneers might be keen to trade up to make sure they get their man, should Winston go as early as projected here. Brees, Foles and Osweiler are not a happy group and Mariota would certainly put a smile on coach Conaghan’s face.

4. Tamworth Two – Jay Ajayi – RB

They got their WR in the first round and they’re happy to pick up a player who many projected to go in the first round here to fill up their RB corps.

5. DoS – Devin Funchess – WR

Having gorged himself on two RBs, GM Geoffrey Manboob has Funchess for dessert, and very happy with his first two rounds he is too.

6. Bombermen – Shane Ray – DE

Having taken a WR they didn’t really need, now they take a defensive end they really could use. Cameron Wake isn’t getting any younger and Mario Williams will be expensive to extend. Ray might soothe the blow.

7. Kelkowski – Vic Beasley – LB

They may have about 15 men on the roster competing for 3 or 4 starting LB spots, but only one, maybe two, are up to Beasley’s standard – if that. Beasley can be a difference maker and sack machine in the right landing spot. Will Kelkowski be that spot?

8. Losers – Tevin Coleman – RB

They got a receiver in the first round so are happy to go the other way and take a back here. Coleman is the best man left on the board. But not for long.

9. Here Comes The Brees – Nelson Agholor – WR

The player I want to call Agbonlahor is the best receiver on the board and the man the Brees were targeting from the beginning. They’ve met with Nelson several times and have been rumoured to have been paying him through his college years. This is a lock, if nothing else on this board is.

10. Bombermen – TJ Yeldon – RB

The Bombermen end up with a receiver, a defender and a back from their first three picks and are pretty happy about it.

Grading Free Agency

A quick look at the state of the nation after the major free agency first round moves have been made from our Irish correspondent and East Flanders Dungeoneers GM, Pete Conaghan

Champions of the Sun

Needs: QB, DT, RB, S
In a gutsy move, the CotS addressed a glaring need at DT by giving up DeSean Jackson for Marcell Dareus. The GM moved swiftly in Free Agency to tie up Repeat Offender – in throwing touchdowns – Ben Rothlisberger, in a strangely uncontested move to get a cheap quality QB.
Top ten TE Delanie Walker was added for minimal guaranteed money, and Buster Skrine should contribute across from Darelle Revis, as one of three cornerbacks signed. $9 for safety Barry Church seems steep, but fills a gap.

Overall grade: A-

Dyna Hard

Needs: TE, DE, S
If we assume JJ Watt will play both DE positions this coming year, then Dyna Hard looks a strong team with few needs. Just as well, because a Jerry Jones-like approach to cap management means that Dyna Hard were restricted in FA, adding RB (Joe Randle, Lance Dunbar) and LB (Sean Weatherspoon) depth for the league minimum. The expected trade activity has yet to materialise.

Grade: D

Dynablaster Bombermen

Needs: RB, DE
The Bombermen added depth by signing the ageing Cameron Wake at DE, and the San Diego pairing of Oliver and Brown at RB. Long term, the Bombermen have a stable of up and coming young WRs, but perhaps could benefit from a steady veteran with immediate impact, such as Andre Johnson.
Joe Flacco is the latest signing at QB to join the ranks of the Failed, Fickle and Flimsy (Hoyer, Manziel and RGIII) and should slot in as a reliable backup to Matt Ryan.

Grade: C

DynaForOne Firebirds

Needs: DE, LB, Secondary
The reigning Champions have a high powered offense and a mediocre defense, and a quiet free agency indicates that coach Hawke is comfortable with that (or else forgot about Free Agency).
Replacement-level replacements have been signed for the secondary, though it’s not unreasonable to see up-years for Antonio Cromartie and Devin McCourty after quiet 2014s.

Grade: E

Dynasore Losers

Needs: DT, Depth
In what could mistakenly be seen as a win-now roster, in which Peter Manning overshadows the team like an Easter Island Head, the Losers identified Punter and Kicker as their positions of need, signing Marquette King and Stephen Gostkowski for over the minimum. That could be significant.
The remaining need, DT, may be filled by last year’s youngsters, but surely the selection of Leonard Williams in the first round of the draft is imminent.

Grade: D

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Needs: Everywhere
East Flanders moved to address an offensive situation where they were forced to play two tight ends in every game last year, by signing Justin Forsett on a major 2-year deal. Frank Gore and Danny Woodhead join Forsett in an veteran (old) RB cadre which is hoping to produce for one more year.
DeAndre Levy was the only other significant signing, and should bolster a D where four weakish linebackers were played in most games in 2014.
Grade: C

Here Come the Brees

Needs: RB, WR, TE, DE, LB
The WR group took an immediate upgrade with the addition of DeSean Jackson via trade, and adding Pernell McPhee and Nigel Bradham should bolster the linebackers, but more needs to be done in the draft by The Brees management.
Owen Daniels at TE should provide an immediate ROI, but it is curious that a team with such a lot of cap space didn’t make any major moves in FA. Obviously the management team believe in being prudent and building through the draft. Will the fans be happy though?

Grade: D

The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Needs: RB, TE, DL
Stack ‘em high, buy ‘em cheap is the offseason mantra of the Sadness, whose main intention seems to have been to add camp bodies in advance of the terrible toll exacted by injuries in the coming months. Who would be an NFL starter?
The 4th Dynmension added 21 journeymen, plus Darrelle Revis and Brandon LaFell. With a high pick in the draft, the Sadness will be looking to add quality over quantity. It remains to be seen whether they will draft for need, or go BPA.

Grade: D

Tamworth Two

Needs: RB, TE, DT, LB
Cap restrictions made sure of a quiet free agency for Los Hermanos Tamworth, who mostly signed cheap depth players at positions of need. The exception was a $15 contract for Johnathon Stewart, who is the feature back in Carolina at long last, if he can stay healthy. Fred Jackson provides depth.
Rolando McClain comes back and the Two are hoping Jon Bostic will thrive in Chicago’s new 3-4 scheme. DE is still a worry and may be addressed in the draft.
Grade: D

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Needs: TE, DT, LB
Dangerous mavericks Kelkowski bid early and often, and seemingly on every single viable Free Agent. They seem to have actually added more players than the Sadness.
Major proponents of the Chip Kelly School, they’ve followed his lead in signing Sam Bradford, albeit to a much more favourable deal. This may indicate a lack of faith in their current backup to the undroppable Kaep, Tony Romo, for whom age and injury could be catching up. A Kaep-Bradford 1-2 has the league salivating.
The TE situation has been ‘addressed’ by signing 6 of them, and RB Denard Robinson has been added for depth purposes.

Grade: C

2014 DynaBowl Post Season Performance Analysis – Part 3

So we were about to look at some positional statistics. Let’s start with a nice, simple split, total points by position, starting with the defence:

DT DE LB CB  S  Def Total
Champions of the Sun 40.000 306.500 527.500 157.300 231.300 1262.600
Dyna Hard 88.750 370.150 473.200 153.600 156.800 1242.500
Dynablaster Bombermen 123.450 254.600 418.250 177.300 217.700 1191.300
DynaForOne Firebirds 270.000 172.200 295.600 188.600 134.450 1060.850
Dynasore Losers 63.250 220.250 557.550 115.750 224.900 1181.700
East Flanders Flahutes 177.000 176.000 342.000 174.450 171.950 1041.400
Here Comes The Brees 254.750 123.350 322.000 212.250 257.600 1169.950
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 74.500 278.550 326.500 168.500 241.650 1089.700
Tamworth Two 172.250 195.000 390.500 239.950 183.450 1181.150
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 80.000 151.550 447.000 157.575 160.500 996.625
Grand Total 1343.950 2248.150 4100.100 1745.275 1980.300 11417.775

Now, when looking at these stats, you need to remember the flex options – teams did have the option of starting 1 or 2 DTs and 3 or 4 LBs. For example, in 8 of the 16 weeks, Here Comes The Brees started 2 DTs, while DFO did so in 12 of the 16 weeks, hence these two teams had by far the greatest number of points from this position.

Four teams, Champions of the Sun, Dyna Hard, Dynablaster Bombermen and Dynasore Losers only ever started 1 DT, while two more teams – Kelkowski and Dynasty of Sadness – only started 2 DTs once. We’ll get into the points per starter stats shortly, that was just to put the above numbers in a bit of context. What it does mean, though, is that only Dynablaster managed to get at least 100 points out of starting a solo DT.

So, as a percentage of all points gained by the team, how do the defensive positions break down?

DT DE LB CB  S Def Total
Champions of the Sun 1.34% 10.25% 17.64% 5.26% 7.74% 42.23%
Dyna Hard 3.04% 12.67% 16.19% 5.26% 5.37% 42.52%
Dynablaster Bombermen 4.34% 8.95% 14.70% 6.23% 7.65% 41.87%
DynaForOne Firebirds 8.69% 5.54% 9.52% 6.07% 4.33% 34.15%
Dynasore Losers 2.10% 7.31% 18.51% 3.84% 7.46% 39.22%
East Flanders Flahutes 6.99% 6.95% 13.51% 6.89% 6.79% 41.15%
Here Comes The Brees 9.50% 4.60% 12.01% 7.92% 9.61% 43.63%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2.47% 9.23% 10.82% 5.58% 8.01% 36.10%
Tamworth Two 6.13% 6.94% 13.91% 8.55% 6.53% 42.06%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 3.14% 5.96% 17.57% 6.19% 6.31% 39.17%
Grand Total 4.72% 7.90% 14.41% 6.13% 6.96% 40.12%

It’s pretty clear which teams had the star DEs – Dyna Hard having JJ Watt gave a massive boost at that position. Watt scored 275 points in 16 weeks of the season, leaving 95 to be scored by the second choice DE. There were 4 teams which didn’t average 95 points per DE, so this was good going for the second string player at the position.

All in all, there wasn’t a huge variation in the proportion of points scored by defenses. The low of 34.15% scored by DFO was more a result of the massively high offensive scoring done by the team, likewise the 36.10% put up by Kelkowski. On total defensive points, these teams finished 8th and 7th in the league, 80 and 50 points below the league average (respectively).

So flipping it around then and looking at it on an average points per starter basis, how does it look? First of all, it’s important to remember that regularly starting fewer players at a position *should* lead to a higher average points per game on the basis that the additional flex player who has been overlooked in theory should be less likely to score a high number of points. Should be.

Row Labels DT DE LB CB  S  Def Ave  Overall Ave
Champions of the Sun 2.500 9.578 8.242 4.916 7.228 7.174 8.494
Dyna Hard 5.547 11.567 7.394 4.800 4.900 7.060 8.302
Dynablaster Bombermen 7.716 7.956 6.535 5.541 6.803 6.769 8.083
DynaForOne Firebirds 9.643 5.381 5.796 5.894 4.202 6.062 8.849
Dynasore Losers 3.953 6.883 8.712 3.617 7.028 6.714 8.559
East Flanders Flahutes 9.316 5.500 5.607 5.452 5.373 5.917 7.190
Here Comes The Brees 10.615 3.855 5.750 6.633 8.050 6.647 7.617
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 4.382 8.705 5.183 5.266 7.552 6.191 8.599
Tamworth Two 9.066 6.094 6.402 7.498 5.733 6.711 7.977
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.706 4.736 7.095 4.924 5.016 5.663 7.228
Grand Total 7.149 7.025 6.710 5.454 6.188 6.491 8.090

So I’ve included the overall average for some context – that tells you what the aveage player on the 22 man starting line-up scored. As we’d expect, in the vast majority of cases, defensive players score less than average. Watt, Dareus, Suh, McCoy, Quinn, Pierre-Paul and Sen’Derrick Marks are the ones that tip the balance, while Dynasore Losers have an exceptionally strong selection of LBs.

We can look at this as a ratio. In the table below, 100% represents the average score at a position being equal to the average score for the team overall. Over 100% means that position scored above average while below 100% means below average.

DT DE LB CB  S Def Total
Champions of the Sun 29.43% 112.77% 97.04% 57.87% 85.10% 84.46%
Dyna Hard 66.81% 139.33% 89.06% 57.82% 59.02% 85.03%
Dynablaster Bombermen 95.45% 98.43% 80.85% 68.54% 84.16% 83.74%
DynaForOne Firebirds 108.97% 60.81% 65.50% 66.60% 47.48% 68.50%
Dynasore Losers 46.19% 80.41% 101.78% 42.26% 82.11% 78.45%
East Flanders Flahutes 129.57% 76.50% 77.98% 75.83% 74.74% 82.30%
Here Comes The Brees 139.35% 50.60% 75.49% 87.08% 105.68% 87.27%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 50.96% 101.22% 60.27% 61.23% 87.82% 72.00%
Tamworth Two 113.65% 76.39% 80.25% 94.00% 71.86% 84.13%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 65.11% 65.52% 98.16% 68.13% 69.39% 78.34%
Grand Total 88.37% 86.85% 82.95% 67.42% 76.50% 80.24%

I didn’t spot before that the Brees safeties also scored over the team average points. Impressive given that no one else’s safeties manage to average more than 88% of an average player’s contribution. Harrison Smith seems to be the main (sole?) reason for that.

This might flag up key areas of weakness. I would not be surprised if Champions of the Sun were chasing a DT in the off-season. To be honest, Max might be better of fielding himself rather than whatever potato was taking the field for him this year. 2.5 points per player per game is by a fair distance the lowest average points per game of any psoition group for any team.

So what about the offensive side of the ball? It tells you to fuck off, it’s that offensive.

QB RB WR TE Off Total 
Champions of the Sun 272.280 569.175 614.850 84.500 1540.805
Dyna Hard 240.440 557.475 611.510 44.925 1454.350
Dynablaster Bombermen 290.420 488.250 540.500 135.700 1454.870
DynaForOne Firebirds 344.500 541.700 646.700 313.900 1846.800
Dynasore Losers 329.640 456.300 644.300 203.300 1633.540
East Flanders Flahutes 308.260 370.175 437.575 170.100 1286.110
Here Comes The Brees 350.560 428.400 333.500 158.400 1270.860
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 273.700 615.300 608.250 237.900 1735.150
Tamworth Two 349.460 438.600 561.850 91.900 1441.810
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 179.240 388.100 681.700 83.800 1332.840
Grand Total 2938.500 4853.475 5680.735 1524.425 14997.135

Lots more flex options available to teams here, with 2 flex positions spread across RB, WR and TE. 3 teams opted for only 1 TE in every game, with the 2 flexes used at the other positions – Dyna Hard, Dynablaster and the Dynasty of Sadness. Two of these teams accounted for the two lowest scores at TE, while the Bombermen were 6th in TE scoring despite only ever fielding one.

Only Kelkowski and DFO didn’t start 4 WR in at least 10 games. Despite this, both managed over 600 points at the position. The points per player information which is to follow will get into this a little more.

At RB, East Flanders started 3 in only 1 of the 16 games, Dynasore in 9 and DFO in 10. Despite this, East FLanders scored more RB points than 5 other teams while Dynasore and DFO clocked in at 4th and 3rd respectively in total RB points.

As a percentage, by position, these split down as follows:

QB RB WR TE Off Total
Champions of the Sun 9.11% 19.04% 20.57% 2.83% 51.54%
Dyna Hard 8.23% 19.08% 20.93% 1.54% 49.77%
Dynablaster Bombermen 10.21% 17.16% 19.00% 4.77% 51.13%
DynaForOne Firebirds 11.09% 17.44% 20.82% 10.11% 59.46%
Dynasore Losers 10.94% 15.15% 21.39% 6.75% 54.22%
East Flanders Flahutes 12.18% 14.63% 17.29% 6.72% 50.82%
Here Comes The Brees 13.07% 15.98% 12.44% 5.91% 47.40%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 9.07% 20.39% 20.15% 7.88% 57.49%
Tamworth Two 12.45% 15.62% 20.01% 3.27% 51.35%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 7.04% 15.25% 26.79% 3.29% 52.39%
Grand Total 10.33% 17.05% 19.96% 5.36% 52.70%

You can tell which team had Gronkowski – the one which had TE accounting for over 10% of the team’s total points. He may have started slowly but he clocked up a total of 184 points across the 16 week season, 36 more than Anotonio Gates in second. Oh, and DFO had Gates as well, just for good measure.

Looking at the average points per game per player for offensive players then…

Row Labels QB RB WR TE Off Ave  Overall Ave 
Champions of the Sun 17.018 12.110 9.917 4.447 10.700 8.494
Dyna Hard 15.028 11.614 9.555 2.808 10.100 8.302
Dynablaster Bombermen 18.151 10.172 8.445 8.481 10.103 8.083
DynaForOne Firebirds 21.531 12.898 11.346 10.824 12.825 8.849
Dynasore Losers 20.603 11.129 10.738 7.530 11.344 8.559
East Flanders Flahutes 19.266 11.217 6.837 5.487 8.931 7.190
Here Comes The Brees 21.910 9.313 5.558 7.200 8.825 7.617
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 17.106 13.984 10.862 8.496 12.050 8.599
Tamworth Two 21.841 9.332 8.779 5.406 10.013 7.977
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 11.203 8.085 10.652 5.238 9.256 7.228
Grand Total 18.366 10.931 9.237 6.898 10.415 8.090

Naturally, we’d expect offensive scoring to be much higher. There aren’t many positional groups which end up scoring below the team average. Only two teams manage higher than average with their TEs – the Bombermen and DFO, otherwise it’s the WRs of East Flanders and the Brees that show themselves up as below average.

The other big highlight is the underperformance of the Dynasty of Sadness’ QB, clocking in a full 7 points below the league average QB. To put that in context, 7 points per game equates to 112 points across the year. If you add 112 points on to the 2,544 the Dynasty scored in the 16 weeks of the season, they’d move from 9th top scorers to… oh… 9th. But now only 25 points behind league runners-up Here Comes The Brees in 8th.

QB RB WR TE Off Total
Champions of the Sun 200.35% 142.58% 116.76% 52.36% 125.98%
Dyna Hard 181.01% 139.89% 115.09% 33.82% 121.65%
Dynablaster Bombermen 224.55% 125.84% 104.48% 104.92% 124.99%
DynaForOne Firebirds 243.31% 145.75% 128.21% 122.32% 144.93%
Dynasore Losers 240.71% 130.03% 125.46% 87.97% 132.54%
East Flanders Flahutes 267.97% 156.02% 95.10% 76.32% 124.22%
Here Comes The Brees 287.64% 122.26% 72.97% 94.52% 115.86%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 198.92% 162.62% 126.31% 98.80% 140.12%
Tamworth Two 273.80% 116.98% 110.05% 67.77% 125.51%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 154.99% 111.86% 147.36% 72.46% 128.05%
Grand Total 227.03% 135.13% 114.18% 85.27% 128.74%

Those percentages then… they say basically the same kind of thing I was saying above. Dyna Hard and, to a lesser extent, Champions of the Sun may want to look at their TE options going forward.

Special Teams then?

PK PN  ST Total
Champions of the Sun 86.850 99.525 186.375
Dyna Hard 100.100 125.400 225.500
Dynablaster Bombermen 95.150 104.025 199.175
DynaForOne Firebirds 108.150 90.325 198.475
Dynasore Losers 104.250 93.320 197.570
East Flanders Flahutes 124.500 78.750 203.250
Here Comes The Brees 136.500 103.975 240.475
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 107.050 86.475 193.525
Tamworth Two 90.150 94.865 185.015
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 120.450 94.375 214.825
Grand Total 1073.150 971.035 2044.185

I have nothing really to say here.

PK PN ST Total
Champions of the Sun 2.90% 3.33% 6.23%
Dyna Hard 3.43% 4.29% 7.72%
Dynablaster Bombermen 3.34% 3.66% 7.00%
DynaForOne Firebirds 3.48% 2.91% 6.39%
Dynasore Losers 3.46% 3.10% 6.56%
East Flanders Flahutes 4.92% 3.11% 8.03%
Here Comes The Brees 5.09% 3.88% 8.97%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 3.55% 2.86% 6.41%
Tamworth Two 3.21% 3.38% 6.59%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.73% 3.71% 8.44%
Grand Total 3.77% 3.41% 7.18%

But now… I still have nothing really to say.

Yeah. That’s all you’re getting this time.