Tag: Dynablaster

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Pre-Season Tim Preview

DynaForOne Firebirds

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

101.71 ppg, 9th best in league

QB 21.68 ppg, 1st
RB 24.03 ppg, 9th
WR/TE 43.66 ppg, 7th
SPEC 12.34 ppg, 10th

It was a case of first to worst (in Tim, it’s almost impossible for a Tim team to be worse than most of the teams in Peter) for Neil Hawke and the Firebirds last season. The inaugural champs didn’t lose it at QB though where Rusty Wilson and Big Phil Rivers are one of the best one-two tandems in the league. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and, barring the ever-present spectre of injury, there’s no reason to think that the Firebirds’ QBs won’t be right up there again this year.

So where did it go so wrong then? Step forward CJ Anderson and Marshawn Lynch. Neil’s two big RB threats going into last season both underwhelmed drastically for one reason or another and left the Firebird’s relying on Chris Johnson’s zimmerframe and Frank Gore’s determination to show the young ‘uns how they do back in the day. This season Lynch is retired and Gore and CJ2K are both yet another year older. The Firebirds have added Lynch’s heir presumptive in Seattle, Thomas Rawls, and traded for Eddy Lacy though. Rawls and Lacy both have question marks over them but it’s good to see Hawke recognise the problem and take big steps to resolve it. If CJ Anderson turns up this year and Ryan Matthews stays healthy this could be a very strong group.

The receivers weren’t quite as bad as the RBs but they still weren’t great. How Julio Jones didn’t get injured from the stress of having to carry this entire offence on his back last year I don’t know. Edelman gave him some help before injury ended his season and Hawke pulled Snead from the waiver wire but after those three there’s really nothing to say. Again though, the Firebirds went hard at fixing this position. Vincent Jackson came in free agency and Markus Wheaton in a trade (albeit for a vastly overinflated price for some reason). With Corey Coleman, Tyler Boyd and, particularly, Tajae Sharpe added in the draft there is a good group of young receivers here who can provide this season and hopefully for a while to come. And at TE? Hawke had Gronk last season and he still has him this season. End of story.

Trending up

DEFENCE

75.81 ppg, 8th best in league

DL 28.22 ppg, 2nd
LB 24.90 ppg, 7th
DB 22.69 ppg, 9th

Along with the Tamworth Two, the Firebirds have the best DT tandem in the league and both Geno Atkins and Ndamukong Suh (eventually) produced the numbers last season and are in a position to do it again this year. Unfortunately for Neil he only had one DE that scored over 51 points last season and none that scored over 100. It’s all change on that front this season with only Charles Johnson back. Brandon Graham moves from LB to DE to provide a clear #1 but Johnson is not the guy to rely on and so Neil is left looking askance at Mario Williams and hoping that he can be bothered to turn up and play in Miami when he couldn’t in Buffalo. To be honest though, if Neil just didn’t play a second DE it still wouldn’t be that much worse than last season.

The Firebirds’ LBs were a weak unit last season with injuries to De’Andre Levy and Alec Ogletree cutting down hugely on their ceiling. Behind those two both Lawrence Timmons and Julius Peppers were solid but Derrick Johnson was the only elite performer. This season both Johnson and Timmons are back and Levy is at least Questionable rather than Out. Ogletree looks healthy, Eric Kendricks moves into year two after a promising rookie season and Mark Barron has been moved from S to LB. Last season’s performance should be the floor for this unit going forward.

The real place that Hawke suffered was at DB though, giving away 16 points a week to the best unit in the league. If you got prizes for having the most players to choose from he would probably do very well as he had a whopping 12 DBs on the roster at the end of the season but sometimes less is more, particularly at CB where the Firebirds had 7 players and only one that scored over 90 points. Neil has trimmed down a little for this season (although he still has 10 DBs) and added Janoris Jenkins at CB who scored well last season, although he is in a new spot this year. Patrick Chung is the only addition at S though where Mark Barron’s loss will hurt.

Steady

OVERALL

177.52 ppg, 7th best in league

The Firebirds have strengthened on offence and should be much closer to the middle of the pack this year and with more depth in reserve. On defence, although the LBs got better the DBs got worse and the D line is one injury away from collapse. I think they may still be the worst team in Tim but the performances should be better.

Dynablaster Bombermen

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

103.81 ppg, 7th best in league

QB 17.17 ppg, 7th
RB 25.09 ppg, 8th
WR/TE 47.47 ppg, 4th
SPEC 14.08 ppg, 4th

Many people’s hot tips for the Owl last season ended up mired in mediocrity as their big guns just didn’t quite fire like many of us thought they would. Despite a poor QB performance it was the RBs that really hurt the most though. Going into the season with round 1 re-draft RB Jeremy Hill and hot rookie Melvin Gordon looked good but, in hindsight, we should have seen that the group was shallow and when Hill and Gordon were less than stellar it left the Bombermen’s ground game plodding. This year they have Gordon and Hill still in place, with appropriately tempered expectations, but superstar-on-the-rise David Johnson to back that up too. Surely another bright young thing can’t flop to the floor like a suffocating salmon at the Bombermen?

I skipped over the QB situation up there but it’s worth looking over again. The Bombermen go into the season with 6 QBs rostered as of today, two more than any other team. It’s a sure sign that they don’t think there are guys there to rely upon. Matt Ryan has consistently underwhelmed now to the point where he can only be seen as a backup and that leaves the Bombermen choosing between Kirk Cousins and RG3; both with huge potential but neither is a sure thing. Cousins should be an improvement over Ryan though and RG3 still has the potential for gold dust. The Bombermen will have to be careful not to fall into the Mangboob trap of tinkering too much though and PLOBbing themselves out of a lot of points.

Despite performing the best of the units mentioned already, the Bombermen’s receivers also have to be classified as a disappointment in 2015. Kelvin Benjamin never saw the field, AJ Green didn’t live up to his usual stellar standards, Brandin Cooks took half a season to get going and Jordan Matthews dropped, tipped and fumbled his ceiling away. With the exception of Matthews, all of those guys should be much better this year and the addition of Eric Decker in free agency brings some week-to-week stability to the unit. With the likes of Ty Montgomery, De’Anthony Thomas and Chris Conley backing up though the Bombermen have to hope that their WRs stay healthy. At TE Greg Olsen keeps on rolling and must be considered the #2 fantasy player at his position going forward.

Trending up

DEFENCE

79.38 ppg, 5th best in league

DL 25.09 ppg, 4th
LB 23.17 ppg, 8th
DB 31.12 ppg, 3rd

Looking at the Bombermen’s defence last season you would probably have had it down as average and that is how they performed. Ben Hendy spent big on the D line in the season, bringing in Aaron Donald and it paid off as the line clawed its way up to 4th in the league by the end of the season. The procurement of Donald was just as well really as there was little to speak of outside him one Cameron Wake went down. This season sees Connor Barwin move down to DE and explosive rookie Noah Spence offers some potential at the same spot. You don’t have to imagine much though to see one injury to Donald leaving this unit producing bottom tier numbers.

The LB group wasn’t so much bad as it was lacking an elite talent. Ryan Shazier was the B-men’s top scoring LB and he was LB26 for the season in terms of production. Barwin, Sean Lee and Clay Matthews offered a solid presence but not much of a ceiling. This year the picture is much the same, if not worse with Barwin’s move to DE. Hendy will need to hope that Willie Young’s sack numbers continue to rise and that Clay Matthews’ move back to OLB kicks up his point ceiling. Sean Lee and Elvis Dumervil are fragile presences to rely on though and there is a question about how long Julius Peppers can reasonably keep going at an elite NFL level.

The defensive backs produced well last season and they’re almost entirely all in place still for this season. You wouldn’t want to bet serious money on a group of corners and safeties producing with any consistency but there’s no reason to think that they will be worse so you have to consider this area the strength of the D.

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OVERALL

183.20 ppg, 5th best in league

Barring another clean sweep of disappointment, the Bombermen have to be better on offence this season. On paper their starting lineup is excellent but I am concerned about the depth behind it. The same could be said of the defence except that, DT and DB excluded, I would say the starting lineup is average. If this team is going to challenge they’re going to need their big names to produce and to stay on the field but I worry that the teams around them have strengthened more than Hendy’s men have.

Champions of the Sun

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

122.17 ppg, best in league

QB 16.52 ppg, 9th
RB 35.13 ppg, 2nd
WR/TE 56.31 ppg, 1st
SPEC 14.21 ppg, 3rd

When you have the best offence in the league, where do you look to improve? Well, the stats would tell you to look at your QBs who averaged out at replacement level for the season. There were a couple of games that Roethlisberger left injured that influences that but Max Cubberley was lucky that Carson Palmer’s poor numbers didn’t come in the regular season as they might have cost him a couple of wins. Will they be better in 2016? Palmer is gone so it really all depends on Ben Roethlisberger’s health. If he plays 16 games then they probably will but if he goes down injured it becomes Joe Flacco or Paxton Lynch calling the shots and things could get ugly.

A triple combination of Latavius Murray, Thomas Rawls and DeAngelo Williams really brought home the bacon for the Champions last season as they scored consistently well through the year to prop up the team. Rawls is gone for the coming season but Murray and the Bell/Williams tandem should still be top performers. Behind them Cubberley would have been hoping Jay Ajayi would provide depth but Arian Foster seems to have taken the starting job in Miami and so he will be relying on the mercurial talents of Shane Vereen or a rookie breakout from Devontae Booker or Keith Marshall to back-up and that’s not ideal.

Breakout seasons from Allen Robinson, Jordan Reed and DeAndre Hopkins led to the Champions’ receivers plowing a furrow through most opposing defences last season, scoring nearly 9 points more per week than the 3rd placed unit. John Brown, Mike Evans, Travis Kelce and the late addition of Eric Decker really reinforced the strength of this group and it’s no surprise that they topped the scoring charts. Cubberley took the somewhat perplexing decision to move Allen Robinson on in the off-season though, ostensibly because he couldn’t afford to renew him, and the loss of Decker also makes this unit weaker. The Champions are gambling on Mike Evans to bounce back and replace Allen Robinson’s production and have also brought in Golden Tate to shore things up. Reed and Kelce are still present at TE in one of the best TE tandems in the league. Expect to see this group fall back to the pack but still be a top producer.

Trending down

DEFENCE

95.05 ppg, best in league

DL 20.68 ppg, 6th
LB 35.89 ppg, 1st
DB 38.48 ppg, 1st

If the offence was the best in the league by a length, the defence was best in the league by a country mile, averaging nearly 12 points per week more than the unit in 2nd. The biggest reason for this was a surprisingly huge production from the DBs. The Champions don’t roster a lot at this position but Reshad Jones and Kurt Coleman were both top 10 safeties and Josh Norman, Adam Jones and Marcus Williams were all top 10 cornerbacks. Every member of that secondary is back this season but the fickle nature of the position means that Cubberley cannot count on that production continuing. Norman is in a new spot, Jones is a year older and Coleman’s supporting cast has diminished. They should still be good but you wouldn’t want to bet on them being the best.

If secondary was the strength of the D then the line was the weakness. Marcell Dareus is a fantasy bust and Robert Quinn played half a season at best, leaving the Champions without their top two earners on the line. Thankfully Cubberley struck gold on the wire with Tom Johnson from Minnesota and a mid-season trade for Olivier Vernon made up for the loss of Quinn. The line should be stronger in 2016. Cubberley drafted three rookie DTs and, although it looks like Tom Johnson will still lead the line into the season, he can hope that by week 9 he may have more options there. At DE though Robert Quinn is back and has been joined by the newly re-classified Khalil Mack. Add Robert Ayers (#8 DE by average weekly points), Olivier Vernon, Calais Campbell, Leonard Williams and a healthy Dante Fowler Jr. to the mix and, frankly, it all looks a bit silly.

In a reverse-Chandler Jones though, the line’s gain is the linebackers’ loss as Khalil Mack’s re-classification leaves the Champions’ #1 LB corps light. Jamie Collins, Navorro Bowman and Anthony Barr are back but Justin Houston may or may not play this year. There is scarily little depth present at this position at the moment and Cubberley will have to look to address that before the season starts otherwise this unit will see a serious drop off.

Trending down

OVERALL

217.21 ppg, best in league

Although both sides of this team are trending down I still think the Champions will be one of the better teams in the league. Cubberley has leveraged some of his potential to repeat to try and build for longevity a bit through the draft and that will see the team drop to the pack but hopefully stay bobbing near the top, hunting for the playoffs.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dynarules

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

109.08 ppg, 4th best in league

QB 19.94 ppg, 4th
RB 30.00 ppg, 5th
WR/TE 45.88 ppg, 5th
SPEC 13.25 ppg, 5th

After a slow start to the season that saw Kelkowski start 1-4 they really rallied at the right time and made a strong, late run to the playoffs. Looking at their scores it’s a story of consistency across the board being just top-half in every category. This would seem to tell the tale of an offence with few weaknesses but perhaps lacking in top-end but in fact it was more a case of top-end talent not performing at a top-end level for one reason or another. At RB Mark Ingram only played half a season and Arian Foster managed less than that. DeMarco Murray was trapped in a nightmare and TJ Yeldon was defeated by game script. Despite all of that though they put up good numbers and gave Kelkowski a solid floor every week. This season Murray is in a better spot but Foster a worse. Ingram is still going to be top 5 when fit and TJ Yeldon has gone from being flummoxed by game script to being flummoxed by Chris Ivory. Pretty much status quo at Kelkowski.

QB is a tale of a jaguar. Well, not just a jaguar but El Jaguar. Blake Bortles ascent into the stratosphere of premiere QBs was a thing of beauty and timed to perfection to help Kelkowski as Romo and Kaepernick both finally gave up any pretence of fantasy relevance. This season they have a little more depth behind them but I have my doubts as to whether El Jaguar will get quite the stats he did last year, if only because the Jags may not be losing quite as much, quite as often (I can’t believe I just put that in black and white).

What was a tremendous WR group for Kelkowski in 2014 took a step back last year as Calvin Johnson got older, Julius Thomas went to Jacksonville and Randall Cobb took a step back. Their numbers were saved by Doug Baldwin’s frankly ludicrous second half of 2015 and Ben Watson coming out of leftfield to be a fantasy TE1. This year Megatron and Watson are gone and Kelkowski are relying on Baldwin to continue his form in order to give them a truly top tier WR and Julius Thomas to stay healthy to produce at TE. Unless they do Kelkowski may find themselves lagging behind the field at receiver.

Trending down

DEFENCE

79.66 ppg, 4th best in league

DL 14.82 ppg, 9th
LB 33.81 ppg, 2nd
DB 31.03 ppg, 4th

In drafting Kwon Alexander, Preston Smith and Stephone Anthony, did Kelkowski show themselves as IDP draft geniuses or did they just get lucky? Whichever it was, the trio of rookies produced and, alongside wily vets Brandon Marshall and D’Qwell Jackson, contributed to the 2nd best LB unit in the league. This season they’ve added Jerell Freeman, Dont’a Hightower and Nigel Bradham to strengthen an already powerful unit and should be right up there again.

Kelkowski’s eye for talent seems to apply equally to the secondary too where they had 5 safeties and 3 cornerbacks over 100 points. There has been turnover at CB this off-season but that isn’t necessarily a problem as the position is very volatile. The names Kelkowski have in place offer a lot of potential again and their solid S group from last year is largely intact leaving them with the most strength in depth in the league at this spot.

Where Kelkowski were let down was on the defensive line, a recurring problem for many teams in the league. Everson Griffen did not produce at his 2014 levels and he and Cliff Avril were a pedestrian DE pairing. It was even worse at DT where Malcolm Brown (DT15 but nearly 200 points down on Aaron Donald at #1) was their top scorer. Things look brighter this year with Malik Jackson moving to DT, Jason Pierre Paul having got through an off-season without blowing any more bits of his hands up and Mario Edwards Jr into his second season. The ceiling still looks low on this group but they have a chance to be better than last year.

Steady

OVERALL

188.74 ppg, 3rd best in league

Although they added a lot of strength in depth to the defence I don’t actually see the ceiling being raised a long way and I’m concerned about the depth on the offensive side of the ball. Kelkowski aren’t as bad as their first half of 2015 but they aren’t as good as their second half of 2015 either and I think they could end up pretty middle of the pack in Tim.

DynaHard With A Vengeance

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

115.45 ppg, 2nd best in league

QB 19.08 ppg, 5th
RB 33.91 ppg, 3rd
WR/TE 47.91 ppg, 3rd
SPEC 14.55 ppg, 1st

Embroiled in a two horse race with the Champions of the Sun for the best record in the Dbowl for most of the season, Chris Braithwaite denied the fans the Owl they wanted by choking in the semi-final against the Tamworth Two. DynaHarder were strong all over the roster but it’s at WR where their depth really shone from stars like Antonio Brown and TY Hilton to impact youngsters like Sammy Watkins, Allen Hurns and Tyler Lockett. Their 3rd place finish is perhaps a reflection that a lot of these players are young and a bit inconsistent but more than good enough to put the points up each week. The TE position was a bit of an achilles heel with a bunch of pedestrian options however. Over the summer Chris has engaged “win now” mode, trading away youngsters and picks for Dez Bryant to attempt to move from 3rd to 1st. The Hards have more than enough depth to take the hit though and looks stronger than ever in this department for 2016 although if Martellus Bennett isn’t a big part of the New England offence they may be light at TE again.

A power couple of Jamaal Charles and Todd Gurley made sure that Chris’ RBs held up their end of the bargain too. Jeremy Langford got a welcome boost by Matt Forte’s injury and Alfred Morris proved his usual dependable if unexciting self in Washington. This season the outlook isn’t so rosy. Todd Gurley is still a stud but there are doubts about Jamaal Charles’ role, Jeremy Langford’s competence and Alfred Morris has become a back-up in Dallas, albeit one with a huge ceiling if Ezekiel Elliott goes down. The rest of Chris’ selection consists of questionable rookie picks (Wendell Smallwood, Kenyan Drake) and handcuffs (Charcandrick West and Benny Cunningham). It’s still not difficult to envisage a scenario in which this unit produces at a top level but it’s far from guaranteed.

At QB Chris rode on the back of a good season for Eli Manning for most of the year before making a trade to bring in Tom Brady to prevent the usual post-season choke (not much luck there). Before Brady’s arrival the group was at a low-end QB1 level and that’s probably still where it is. The future looks a little better if Stafford can maintain his form of the second half of last season but Chris may well be looking around again as the trade deadline looms trying to find that extra bit of quality.

Steady

DEFENCE

83.58 ppg, 2nd best in league

DL 27.43 ppg, 3rd
LB 29.76 ppg, 4th
DB 26.39 ppg, 6th

It was a strong effort all round in 2015 from DynaHarder, led by the D-line where the force of nature that is JJ Watt continued to dominate and Ziggy Ansah’s potential started to pay off with a 14.5 sack season. The line was kept from dominating truly by mediocre options at DT with Brandon Williams and Johnathan Hankins and that situation is the same going into 2016. Ansah and Watt are still present too and Sheard and Ninkovich offer decent depth behind. If I had to pick one unit on any team to perform almost identically to last season it would be Chris Braithwaite’s D-Line.

In 2015 injuries to Kiko Alonso, Terrell Suggs and Jadeveon Clowney left the Hards looking a little thin at LB but a trade for Thomas Davis mid-season took care of that and, ably supported by CJ Mosely and Von Miller, the group started to put up good numbers. Those three are all back this season and Deone Bucannon has been re-designated as an LB, giving Braithwaite an excellent starting four. Jadeveon Clowney has the potential to put up big numbers too but beyond those 5 players there’s little else here. It would take a lot of bad luck to unsettle this group in 2016 though.

DynaHarder’s secondary was run-of-the-mill last season and, for 2016, they’ve lost their top 2 safeties with Walter Thurmond no longer on the roster and Bucannon moved to LB. Chris will be hoping to cover that gap with free agent signing Harrison Smith and Thurmond’s replacement in Philly, Rodney McLeod. Smith has top 10 pedigree but time will tell if McLeod or rookie Keanu Neal can step up. At CB Damarious Randall is coming into his 2nd year in Green Bay after a good first season and you know that teams will throw at Delvin Breaux all day long.

Steady

OVERALL

199.03 ppg, 2nd best in league

On both Offence and Defence it looks like more of the same for Chris Braithwaite’s Dyna Hard. Even if his corps of running backs isn’t as robust as last year that’s compensated for by a top-heavy WR unit and a defence that looks as steady as they come as a top-line group. If you were wanting to point to a weakness then you could say that DynaHard may struggle for production at TE week-on-week but, really, they should be able to get by.

Guest Mock Draft by James ‘Goody’ Goodson of the Tamworth Two

MOCK DRAFT! Get your MOCK DRAFT here! Roll up, roll up, ladies and gentlemen, see the astounding sights of the mock draft up close and personal (don’t worry, he won’t bite, but do keep your hands out of his cage…). Drum roll please, if you will, and introducing for your pleasure and delight, the mock draft stylings of Mr James ‘Goody’ Goodson.

Pick 1.01 and… The Sadness choose…
Ezekiel Elliot, RB.
Elliot will be the handcuff to Darren McFadden so taking the most pro-bowl likely RB makes sense. This means they’ll look at a franchise RB, and with Elliot they have a RB who does everything well. He’s in a tier on his own above everyone else on my board so he’s the 1st overall pick in this mock. They just hope DMC avoids getting injured so Elliot can secure RB1.

With pick 1.02 the Firebirds choose…
Corey Coleman, WR.
Another tough one as I think the Firebirds have better strength at WR than RB, but there is a real limited quality in long term value in RB, especially in this year’s draft. A dynasty franchise is set up around WR talent and Coleman pips Doctson. The latter being a better dynasty target as both Racist’s receivers are are expected to be FAs in 2017

With pick 1.03 the Dungeoneers pick..
Josh Doctson, WR.
As above, and if Doctson can bulk up I think he’ll be a very good solid receiver. He has good height and will offer good long term value offer excellent value

With pick 1.04 the Losers choose
Laquon Treadwell, WR.
Treadwell is my number 4 receiver, and I think David loves Treadwell. He’s a very good receiver. His tape shows off some fantastic competitive plays, from blocks to contested catches but, I just don’t think he is quite as good as Michael Thomas. While the Losers RB and WR depth is weighted towards the latter, a potential WR1 is too good to turn down in a dynasty league. He’s a good fit for the WR1 at the Vikings, usurping last year’s surprise package, Diggs as the season goes on. His lower speed won’t be an issue with Teddy’s noodle arm and short passes.

With pick 1.05 the Champions pick…
Michael Thomas, WR.
I love Thomas. I think Thomas could be better than Coleman, but he I think initially, he won’t be a viable fantasy option. He is great with contested catches and will be a nice addition to the Champions’ roster.

With pick 1.06 the Sadness choose…
Sterling Shepard, WR.
I love Sterling Shepard. He will be a legitimate WR 2 for the Giants and will be the perfect foil for OBJ. With the ability to play in the slot but underestimated outside, the best route runner in the draft will likely have a very high floor. The Sadness improve on their 2016 monopoly with an excellent safe pick.

With pick 1.07 Kelkowski pick…
Derrick Henry RB
While the landing spot of Henry won’t result in Kelkowski doing flips, the ability for him to take a lot of the possible red zone touches will be gratefully received at the Mahoney Memorial Stadium. While they haven’t replaced megatron, there is a clear dearth or top tier rookie relievers so this pick is a case of BPA. Don’t be surprised to see Kelkowski attempt to trade up a few spots.

With pick 1.08 The Sadness choose…
Kenneth Dixon, RB.
With Dixon joining Booker in, arguably, one of the best two landing spots, the Sadness make a sensible pick and choose my no. 2 RB.

With 1.09 The Firebirds select…
Devontae Booker, RB.
It’s a bit of a tough pick for the Firebirds. Booker allows them to secure the Denver running game, but doesn’t add much to their depleted RB personnel. They’ve already nabbed the best receiver on the ball and a great landing spot helps them take this pick with little fuss.

With 1.10 the Champions of the Sun pick…
CJ Prosise, RB.
This pick was to be either Prosise or Kenyan Drake of Miami. However I’m going for the upside that Prosise offers as Rawls may not be as fancied as previously thought. Procise can play all 3 downs, is a bit of a freak athlete and can be the receiver Rawls isn’t. 6th round Rawls can be cut with no cost next year at Seattle. 3rd Round Prosise makes sense here. Will Kenyan Drake hang around long enough for the Champions next pick?

With 2.01 The Sadness choose…
Tyler Boyd, WR.
Another freak athlete. With Sanu’s target to go around, the Sadness show can continue.

With 2.02 the Sadness pick…
Hunter Henry, TE.
The best Tight End in the draft who has been compared to Jason Witten. With this pick, the Sadness stockpile depth and take advantage of an ageing Walker on their roster and the expected slow break outs of Tight Ends. Don’t be surprised if the Sadness try to trade down to snag Jaded Goff as Qb is a need.

With 2.03 the Dungeoneers choose…
Paul Perkins, RB.
With a menagerie of backs in New York, Perkins is well suited to take the main carries off an ageing Jennings and a sub par back up committee. Music to the Dungeoneers ears as they have Jennings on their books.

With pick 2.04 The Losers choose…
Malcolm Mitchell, WR.
With superb character and a good landing spot to take on LaFells targets, the Losers pick up one of the safer rookie receivers in this draft who excels at route running, just what Brady likes.

With pick 2.05 the Firebirds choose…
Will Fuller, WR.
Surprised that Fuller fell so low in this draft, the Firebirds snag Houston’s deep ball threat. Fuller had one of the best yards after catch in college and could be a steal at 2.05

With pick 2.06 the Bombermen rock the boat and pick…
Jordan Howard, RB.
Strategically this may be a perfect pick. Langford was not impressive in Chicago with only 3.6 yards per carry and only forcing 7 missed tackles over the entire season. Now with a legitimate powerful back, the Bombermen stop their divisional rival getting stronger and improve upon their only decent RBs of Hill and David Johnson. Another option I was looking at, was Dynaharder trading up to 2.05 to grab Howard to avoid this situation.

At 2.07 Kelkowski pick…
Mike Thomas, WR
This is a great pick for Kelkowski. With very little competition in LA, and the natural ability for a spectacular catch, Thomas (the better Thomas in some people’s eyes) offers superb upside. With only gadget play specialist Tavon Austin to really offer any threat to targets, expect Thomas to perform above his expected pick to be a standout receiver.

At 2.08 Dyna Harder choose…
Wendall Smallwood, RB
With an ADP of 2.09 Wendall Smallwood is moving up boards. A natural runner with a lot of power, Dynaharder pick the Eagles’ Running back and trade with the Firebirds for Mathews to move down later in the draft. This is the best of a bad situation for Dynahard as they were relying on Howard hanging around until 2.08.

At 2.09 the TT choose…
Rashard Higgins, WR
The Cleveland WR graded out as one of the top receivers in 2014 by PFF and this fills a need of arguably the best team in the league who have no weaknesses.

At 2.10 Dynaharder pick…
Tajae Sharpe, WR.
Another well thought of receiver, Sharpe provides Dynaharder with some good depth in a great situation. With Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter only in front of him, Sharpe should get a good amount of targets as the year progresses.

Two-round Mock Draft

[Commissioner note: this article was written before the Dez Bryant blockbuster trade that saw Dyna Hard picks transfer to the Dynasty of Sadness]

And so we enter the season of mock drafts, drafts, and draft grades.  I’ll start the speculation with the first post-NFL draft hot take – here are the players you should be drafting in the first two rounds:

 

1.01       Dynasty of Sadness

Despite their analytics department urging the Sadness to trade the pick for a massive haul, owner Geoffrey Manboob ejects them from the war room and sticks a broomhandle in the door. Ezekiel Elliot.

 

1.02        DynaForOne Firebirds

The Firebirds try to trade down and pick up Derrick Henry, but with no teams offering ‘value’, Neil is forced to go WR here. Laquon Treadwell.

 

1.03        East Flanders Dungeoneers

The Dungeoneers have similar RB worries, with potentially only two of their current RBs being on the 2017 roster. The Jay Gruden Siren Call proves too much however, and they draft Josh Doctson.

 

1.04        Dynasore Losers

The Losers’ natural antipathy to Drew Brees has them select Corey Coleman here; potentially a high-target steal at this draft position.

 

1.05        Champions of the Sun

With no needs at RB, the literal as well as figurative Champions select The Real Michael Thomas.

 

1.06        Dynasty of Sadness

Their need at RB having been sated for another year, Sadness make a less than ideal pick, in the New York Giants’ Sterling Shepherd. With OBJ already on the roster, a trade for the 1.05 with the Champions might make sense here.

 

1.07        Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Kelkowski are in a tight spot. It could be argued their need for receiver is greater, given the retirement of Megatron, but they go for their BPA in this position, Baltimore’s Kenneth Dixon.

 

1.08        Dyna Harder

With a surfeit of expensive RBs on the roster, Dyna Harder take Tyler Boyd. Pretty dull.

 

1.09        DynaForOne Firebirds

The Firebirds are delighted to scoop up Derrick Henry at this position.

 

1.10        Champions of the Sun

The Champions draft for value rather than need with this pick and select Devonte Booker, RB.

 

2.01        Dynasty of Sadness

The Sadness look carefully at their roster and enter risk mitigation mode – Will Fuller provides Jalen Strong insurance.

 

2.02        Dynasty of Sadness

Likewise, Matt Jones’ backup is selected here. Keith Marshall, RB.

 

2.03        East Flanders Dungeoneers

East Flanders put their fingers in their ears and hum loudly to drown out the sound of a small herd of running backs, and select Hunter Henry, TE.

 

2.04        Dynasore Losers

The Losers target the best RB still on the board, Paul Perkins.

 

2.05        DynaForOne Firebirds

Firebirds select the Oakland Raiders backup RB, and roll with DeAndre Washington.

 

2.06        Dynablaster Bombermen

Situation means he has slippped this far, but the Bombermen are delighted to snap up Leonte Caroo with their first pick.

 

2.07        Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

If it’s good enough for Bill….Kelkowski go with the New England utility man, Malcolm Mitchell.

 

2.08        Dyna Harder

Dyna Harder select The Other Mike Thomas.

 

2.09        Tamworth Two

Tamworth Two blow the draft wide open and start the run on defensive players by selecting Myles Jack.

 

2.10        Dyna Harder

Dyna Harder ignore the incipient run on defensive players and build depth in the Chicago backfield. Jordan Howard, RB.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two

The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through.  This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.

Reality Bites

Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.

2014 Week 2 2014 Standing 2015 Week 2 POA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 1-1 (137 poa) 7-6 1-1 (181 poa) +44
Here Comes the Brees 1-1 (146 poa) 8-5 0-2 (152 poa) +6
Dynasore Losers 2-0 (175 poa) 8-5 2-0 (172 poa) -3
Kelkowski 2-0 (212 poa) 8-5 0-2 (153 poa) -59
Dynablinker Obamamen 0-2 (168 poa) 7-6 0-2 (156 poa) -12
Champions of the Sun 1-1 (181 poa) 6-7 2-0 (192 poa) +11
Tamworth Two 2-0 (185 poa) 6-7 1-1 (167 poa) -18
East Flanders Dungeoneers 1-1 (161 poa) 5-8 2-0 (158 poa) -3
Dynasty of Sadness 0-2 (129 poa) 5-8 0-2 (154 poa) +25
DynaHarder 0-2 (168 poa) 5-8 2-0 (223 poa) +55

So let’s get the good news out of the way.  DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process.  The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.

The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3rd highest score in week 1.

On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.

What Might Have Been

Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.

  2014 Week 2 2015 Week 2 PPOA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 188 ppoa 228 (79% eff) +40
Here Comes the Brees 210 ppoa 228 (67% eff) +18
Dynasore Losers 212 ppoa 244 (70% eff) +32
Kelkowski 265 ppoa 206 (74% eff) -59
Dynablaster Bombermen 233 ppoa 232 (67% eff) -1
Champions of the Sun 204 ppoa 258 (74% eff) +54
Tamworth Two 261 ppoa 216 (77% eff) -45
East Flanders Dungeoneers 212 ppoa 208 (76% eff) -4
Dynasty of Sadness 206 ppoa 211 (73% eff) +5
DynaHarder 250 ppoa 282 (79% eff) +32

The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.

For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.

Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.

In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.

Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week One

Once the final scores are tallied each week, I, Maximilian Cubberley, feed them into a colourful spreadsheet to produce spurious stats that range from the inaccurate to the irrelevant.  Last season I kept this to myself for the most part but now, you lucky bunch, you get to share in the fun too!  Here’s some stats complete with half-arsed analysis from week 1 of the new season.  As always, when we start something new we look to the past for validation.  Let’s see how everyone’s week 1 compared to last season.

Don’t Take Offence

A lot changed in the off-season.  Players were cut, players were traded, players were drafted, all David’s linebackers retired.  Here’s a sweeping overview of the top offences for week 1 vs the top offences from last season.

Top 5 Offences in 2015:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (125 points on average)
  2. Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules (120 poa)
  3. Dynasore Losers (116 poa)
  4. Champions of the Sun (110 poa)
  5. DynaHard (108 poa)

Top 5 Offences in Week 1:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (132 points)
  2. DynaHard (122 points)
  3. Tamworth Two (115 points)
  4. East Flanders Dungeoneers (110 points)
  5. Champions of the Sun (107 points)

Firebirds still sit top of the pile with Champions of the Sun also holding rough position.  DynaHard have powered up the rankings powered by free agent signing Joseph Randle and the surprising competence of the Tennessee Titans offence.  The news is not so good for Kelkowski though where an injury to Arian Foster, Jeremy Maclin’s new position as ‘A Chiefs’ Pass Catcher Who Isn’t Travis Kelce’ and Julius Thomas’ need to break his own hand to avoid having to play for the Jags has dropped them out of the top 5 and resulted in a loss of 14 points from their average.  They can console themselves with the fact that at least they’re not the Dynasore Losers though who plummet from 3rd place to 9th after one week with a staggering loss of 42 points from last season’s average.  Although many predicted a sharp drop-off for Slater’s boys I don’t think anyone can have expected this and the fans will be hoping that this is a blip for the Broncos not the whole story as the Losers’ offence looks lost without Manning and Sanders as Jordy Nelson is also gone for the season.

On the other hand, maybe we should all just take solace in the fact these stats clearly mean nothing.  I mean, the freshly re-branded East Flanders Dungeoneers have somehow appeared in the top 5 there gaining 16 points over their average from last year.  Time will tell if the improvement is sustainable.

As a general note, whilst there are obviously big swings in points from one week to the next it should be noted that for both offence and defence, 4 of the top 5 teams at the end of last season were also in the top 5 in week 1 of last season.

On the Defensive

Top 5 Defences in 2015:

  1. Champions of the Sun (80 poa)
  2. Tamworth Two (79 poa)
  3. DynaHard (77 poa)
  4. Here Comes the Brees (75 poa)
  5. Dynabummer Blastermensch (75 poa)

Top 5 Defences in Week 1:

  1. DynaHard (115)
  2. Champions of the Sun (90)
  3. Here Comes the Brees (71)
  4. DynaforOne Firebirds (65)
  5. Dynasore Losers (61)

As with Offence we can see the Champions of the Sun holding steady and DynaHard showing improvement for what was already a good unit.  Both teams should be encouraged by week 1 of this season and take it as a sign that they can improve on their positions from last season.  Worryingly for the rest of the league, the Firebirds have held steady on offence and improved on defence, cracking the top 5 in week 1 when they finished 2015 as the worst defensive unit.  This improvement is in no small part due to a big improvement at linebacker where Derrick Johnson’s return seems to have sparked life into the team.

Both the Tamworth Two and the Dynabunny Boostermonks dropped out of the top 5 in week 1.  For the Hogs this may not be more than a blip.  They scored 61 points on defence, which is a significant drop but it was a quiet week for elite rushers Chandler Jones and Olivier Vernon that should not become the new norm for these players.  The Dynaboomer Bustermuffs dropped from 75 points to 39 in week 1, in large part due to a dismal 2.5 point effort from their defensive line of Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams.  Whilst this looks more alarming than the story for the Hogs you can’t look at those three names and say you expect single-digit defensive line performances going forward.  The Bambimoons should bounce back next week.

Don’t Be Down on D

Some of you may be looking at your week 1 performances with a frowny face, worrying, particularly, about performance on the defensive side of the ball.  With an average score of 64.5 on D this week the league is running at nearly 10 points under the average defensive performance than last year.  There’s good news however as defensive point scoring trended up as the season went along last year.  In weeks 1 to 5 last season, the average defence scored 65.1 points.  In weeks 10 to 14 the average score jumped to 77.1.  A lot of defensive positions are volatile, particularly DT, CB and S and it takes a while to pinpoint who the best players on the roster (or the wire) are for the coming season.  Chances are that you will see your defences start to pick up more points as the season goes along and getting ahead of that knowledge curve in those volatile positions will help with that.

First to Worst

Now it’s time to overreact!  Which units on which teams were good last season and terrible in week 1?  Let’s find out.

  1. Champions of the Sun RBs – 2015 rank: 3rd, Week 1 rank: 10th.  With Le’Veon Bell and Lagarette Blount suspended, CJ Spiller injured and the Cleveland Cabal traded away it was no surprise to see the Champions rushing attack falter in week 1.  Starting only two players for a combined 8.3 points it must have been painful viewing for the Dayman, even if it doesn’t seem to have cost him the win (disclaimer: scoring adjustments on Thursday are likely to make this statement false very shortly).
  2. Dynasore Losers LBs – 2015 rank: 1st, Week 1 rank: 10th.  As with the Champions’ rushers above, David Slater can’t have been surprised to see his linebacking corps disintegrate.  DeAndre Levy released, Terrell Suggs injured, Tamba Hali another year older and, worst of all, Chris Borland retiring has left the Losers with a makeshift unit heaped on the shoulders of Ryan Kerrigan.  It may pick up (to be honest, they scored 8 points between them this week, it couldn’t get worse) but we won’t be seeing the Losers back to the top of the charts at this position this year.
  3. East Flanders Dungeoneers and Dynasty of Sadness Special Teams – 2015 rank: 4th and 3rd, Week 1 rank: 9th and 10th.  It’s a sure sign that teams have been focusing their off-season efforts in the wrong places when special teams takes a hit.  Despite how commonly acknowledged it is, both Pete Conaghan and Geoffrey Manboob seem to have forgotten that kickers and punters are the lifeblood of the team.  If this course is not corrected immediately I foresee a dismal season ahead for both teams.

Last in the Past

Now let’s look at some of the units that have improved vastly over last season based on week 1 performance.

  1. East Flanders Dungeoneers Running Backs – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  When the Dungeoneers gave up Eddy Lacy for the 2nd pick in the draft it seemed like Pete Conaghan was accepting that sub par was the new par at running back.  When he then traded away Lagarette Blount it seemed the white flag was already waving.  Little did we know that Carlos Hyde was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson.  Hyde put up 168 yards and 2 TDs in week 1 against the Vikings.  Whilst you might question the sustainability of this, Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings contributed another 17 points and the unit was only narrowly pipped to #1 by an Ameer Abdullah and Eddy Lacy-led Sadness rushing unit.  The Dungeoneers won’t get 47 points from this lot every week but they seem to be in a position to sustain a good performance for the season.  They won’t win anything if they don’t sort out their special teams though.  Seriously.  Sort out your special teams, Pete.
  2. Dynaforone Firebirds Linebackers – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  Julius Peppers was a lone bright spot for the Firebirds last season at linebacker.  This improvement may need to be taken with a pinch of salt as, despite coming 2nd on the week, the Firebirds’ linebackers put up a good week, not a great week.  Derrick Johnson is a big plus for them though and Brandon Graham will have better days ahead.  The unit is not deep though so an injury in the wrong place or age catching up to Peppers could see the Firebirds dropping back down the rankings again.

That’s it from me for week 1.  Theoretically I will be doing more pointless stats in the coming weeks but, realistically, I’ll probably not be bothered.