I pulled together a quick file that can be used to work out final records based on results. It doesn’t do tiebreakers or anything, just overall final records. And it doesn’t sort teams into order either. It’s quite basic. But you can access it here.
Basic Draft Analysis
Ever wanted to understand Dynabowl Drafts better? Well, we’re here to make that much, much harder.
Here’s some basic “analysis” of the nine Dynabowl drafts to have taken place so far. The dataset will be available at the bottom of this article for you to download and do your own review. But you MUST read it all first. Standard rules – no downloading without reading.
A couple of reminders – in the first three drafts – 2015-2017 – we only had 7 rounds, before ramping things up to 12 in 2018. That’ll likely skew a few bits, but hey.
Let’s start things off with some simple counting. How many players of each position have we drafted each year?
Would you look at that. And what do we take away from all that? I don’t know. Take away what you will. CBs are the least popular, though a big jump in 2023, reacting to the change in contract guarantees to prevent streaming, perhaps? The last couple of years have seen 5 special teamers taken after 7 were taken in total in the first 7 years, but more punters than kickers taken is, well, not interesting but mildly notable perhaps?
Excepting 2015, we’ve been pretty consistent in the percentage of defensive players taken, and 2023 seeing the second most taken in a draft ever. It’s still slightly more offense focused, but not by a huge margin.
Maybe it’s more interesting to look at who’s gone for what positions…
The Dungeoneers loves a punter.
The Sadness have taken more RBs and WRs than anyone else, but have also had at 13 more picks than every other team as well.
The Brees have taken nearly double the number of safeties than anyone else, which is pretty astonishing, and 20% of all the safeties ever taken, while the Dungeoneers have taken 23.5% of all CBs ever taken.
Just by position group, two teams have spent more than half their picks on defense…
… while Dyna Hard just could not care less about defense.
In terms of rounds, where do the players get taken?
Perhaps unsurprisingly, it takes a while for defensive players to really get going in the league. Just 6.7% of first round picks go on that side of the ball, and it takes to round 3 to get close to the overall average – 41.1% vs an average of 43.4%.
Rounds 4, 6, and 8-10 all have more than 50% of their picks going on the defense.
Finally, what draft slot is the first player at each position taken?
DT has slowly risen in the rankings, moving from 51, into the 30s fairly consistently, the teens and twenties and finally the first round in 2023. DE and LB have both shifted up a bit as well, with a clear change in mindset from 2019 onwards on the DE front.
RB has gone first every year bar 2021 – the Kyle Pitts year – while WR has been consistently high, with an exception in 2018 where, astonishingly, it took until pick 9 for Calvin Ridley to be selected. That year opened with 8 RBs – Barkley, Guice, Ronald Jones, Penny, Chubb, Michel, Freeman, and Kerryon Johnson. Two decent picks there, ahead of Ridley and DJ Moore roudning out the first.
Worth noting that in the last 4 drafts, the Sadness have been the first to take a TE – Trautman (2020, 34th), Pitts (2021, 1st), McBride (2022, 42nd), Kincaid (2023, 14th).
Anyway, here’s where you can download the data and do your own analysis. As ever, you’re welcome to send your ‘insights’ in and have them published on the site for us all to enjoy.
2015 Commish Preview: East Flanders Dungeoneers
Team: East Flanders Dungeoneers – Pete Conaghan
2014 Record: 5-8, 3rd pick based on head to head.
Significant Additions:
Draft – Amari Cooper (WR), Kevin White (WR), Devin Smith, (WR)
Free Agency – Justin Forsett (RB), Coby Fleener (TE)
Trade – Cam Newton (QB), Ryan Tannehill (QB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Vernon Davis (TE), Stevie Johnson (WR)
Significant Losses:
Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB)
Trade –Eddie Lacy (RB), Drew Brees (QB), Andre Johnson (WR), Connor Barwin (LB), Vontae Davis (CB), Frank Gore (RB), Charles Clay (TE), Jason Witten (TE)
Preview:
We’ll go through the motions with what happened last year but it almost has no bearing on 2015 given the wholesale changes that have occurred throughout this team. Very little remains in place for 2014 and given the miserable performance that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But let’s go back and look at that miserable performance first.
An Apollonean Win Expectation (AWE)* of 4.18 against 5 actual wins shows that the Dungeoneers overperformed while the schedule analysis showed they had a 41% chance of reach 5 wins. They scored the fewest points, had the second lowest potential points and the league worst selection efficiency, 3.9% worse than the Hard in 9th place. There was not much to smile about.
The team had money to spend but free agency was not packed with options. Instead, the Dungeoneers have shifted money forward for the traded contracts to ensure cap space in future years when more players should be available, and in the meantime have moved to revamp the roster as much as possible.
The move for the second pick in the draft from DoS meant losing Eddie Lacy, the undisputed star player on the team. The Dungeoneers had better hope that Amari Cooper develops into a suitable replacement because Kevin White, taken at 3, is already out for 2015 and the lack of opportunity to develop this year may severely limit his impact in 2016 and beyond.
Lacy aside, the running back corps are stronger than last year. Forsett is a strong grab, if only a short term option. Trading midseason to a team in contention for more picks or youth might be a sensible way to capitalise on him. Carlos Hyde is a better long term option, though the risk of the 49ers consistently playing from behind means he may not get the carries that would have been hoped for back before everyone good at 49ers decided they’d either rather do anything but play for Jim Tomsula or consoled themselves in vast quantities of alcohol.
At wide receiver Allen and Floyd could both put up good numbers, as could the aging Marshall, but there’s a strong young core here who, while they won’t be ready to truly compete in 2015, should offer some glimpses. As well as Cooper and White, there’s Davonte Adams, Kenny Stills and Devin Smith. All could contribute and the Dungeoneers will only need one of them to become a B level star to start smiling. Again, selling Marshall mid-season to a contender, if he’s doing well in New York, would seem to be the most sensible option to capitalise on him, because whatever he can do now will not help East Flanders into the playoffs and when they’re ready to make that leap, he will be on the verge of retiring.
The incoming Tannehill and Newton are two good signings, though Tannehill was far too expensive. Between them, the Dungeoneers should be able to pick and choose match-ups and put together a good season, though the Kelvin Benjamin injury reduces Newton’s maximum output. The Miami moves suggest that that Tannehill should be airing the ball out a bit more. That could mean more INTs but it also could bump both yards and TDs significantly.
The defence looks solid, if unspectacular, and with good management through the season could well rank in the top half.
Verdict:
2015 is a rebuilding year and some basic blocks are in place. Conaghan will be looking to see signs of development, particularly in his receiving corps, while also hoping to get to grips with selection and moving up to a league average selection efficiency. Success looks like a degree of competence, something which was a little lacking in 2014.
Prediction:
4-9 and first pick. Yes, this would look like a step back from 2014, but given the youth that’s been brought in to develop, this is no bad thing. Securing the first overall pick is a victory in and of itself and if aging players can be sold for further picks, this could lay the groundwork for a decent team in a couple of years time.
*Apollonean Win Expectation is similar to Pythagorean Win Expectation, except it’s kind of a bullshit made up version. The methodology is explained in this article, although I am coining the name Apollonean win expectation in this very piece here.