Tag: David Slater

2015 Commish Preview: Dynasore Losers

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Team: Dynasore Losers – David Slater

2014 Record: 8-5, 8th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Significant Additions:

Draft – Nelson Agholor (WR), Jameis Winston (QB), Sammie Coates (WR), Owamagbe Odighizuwa (DE)

Free Agency – none

Trade – none

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Jonathan Stewart (RB), Joe Flacco (QB), DeAndre Levy (LB), Lewis Kendrick (S)

Trade – Sheldon Richardson (DE)

Preview:

With $12 tied up in punters and kickers, the Losers have nearly three times as much money tied up in the real footballers than any other team, with three players on $3 or more, more than any other foot-based player in the league is receiving.

In 2014, the Losers clocked in 7th in punting points, more than 32 points behind Dyna Hard, the league leaders, and nearly 8 points off the league average. This obviously didn’t go down well in the corridors of Losers Central and so ace negotiators were dispatched with orders to sign Marquette King and Bryan Anger, the Hard punters in 2014, whatever the cost.That cost, as it turned out, was $6, 1% of the total cap and more than any other team is paying for their punters and kickers combined.

Anger has ranked 2nd, 1st and second in his last three years in the league, while King was 7th and then 1st in his two years so far. Loser’s GM David Slater will certainly be hoping that this level of performance continues, though both the Jaguars and the Raiders look to be improving on their performance over the last few years with better QB options and greater depth at receiver and, to a lesser extent, running back. If those offenses can get moving the points available from the punters will tail off and this move will prove to be a year too later.

Things look remarkably similar at kicker where the Losers have seen fit to offer a world record contract to Stephen Gostkowksi at $4 for 3 years with a $1 guarantee. Gostkowksi certainly represents good value for money, having finished 1st, 2nd and 1st over the past three years.

The Losers finished in 6th in terms of kicking points fielded in 2014, another 332 points off the lead where this time it was the Brees who fielded the league leading player the Losers targeted for poaching.

Justin Tucker was given only a $2 contract to back up Gostkowski and with his slowly decreasing perofrmance over the past 3 years you can see why. Tucker has fallen from 3rd to 6th to 9th amongst kickers in total points scored, and you know that the Losers won’t want to be relying on him too often.

Of course, when talking about kickers, one also has to consider what difference the rule changes will make this year. The PAT will now be taken from the 15 yard line where success drops by around 5% compared to the 2 yard line of old. That will mean fewer points available for kickers, with negatives being scored for misses. But in addition it may lead to more 2 point conversion attempts, reducing the scoring opportunities for kickers. As such, the 60 gain the Losers will have targeted may well not be available. All in all, this may have been a move made a year too later.*

Verdict:

There are undoubtedly some stars on this roster but a lack of depth on the offensive side of the ball may hinder the team. The defence certainly has strength but the random nature of defensive scoring means it can’t be counted on to win enough games. If the team gets the rub of the green, they could see a second consecutive run to the playoffs, otherwise it’ll be a case of looking towards the rookies developing to offer enough depth in future seasons. At the end of the day, the difference could lie in whether we see the Peter of 2013 and early 2014 or the Peter that finished 2014.

Prediction:

7-6 and in the mix to win the Division, but perhaps not strong enough to edge a team from Tim for a wild card. Being in the weaker Division means they could rack up enough wins there to mean results against Tim won’t matter and a playoff berth is secured, but I fear the lack of depth will result in a couple of losses due to bye weeks and a shock will come along at some point. At the end of the day they could be the number 2 seed in the playoffs by winning the Division or end up with the 4th pick in the 2016 draft.

*Fun Fact: If this move had been made last year, and if all those 64 extra points had been scored in week 14, the Losers still wouldn’t have won their playoff semi-final against the Firebirds.

Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

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With the draft in the books, it’s time to take stock and work out what it all means… Pre-draft needs are taken from the 2.0 draft.

DynaHarder

Pre-draft needs: QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S

What you started with: 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 4.11, 5.01, 5.11, 6.01, 7.01. Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, DeAngelo Williams

What you ended up with: Toddy Gurley, Marcus Mariota, David Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Jeremy Langford, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, Bradley Pinion, TY Hilton

 

The worst case: An over-used running back, with a succession of muscle injuries and topped off by one few, if any, players ever completely recover from, on a team who’s line has been rebuilt after stinking out 2014… Gurley out T-Riches T-Rich. The least Whisenhunt QB ever, going to work with Ken Whisenhunt, and two depth options from a moribund offence offer no viable fantasy starters. In fact, in the worst case scenario, the only fantasy relevant starter in this draft is a punter. At least there’s TY Hilton, until he signs somewhere else next year.

The upside: Hilton doesn’t land in a bad spot when he leaves the Colts. Gurley’s injury doesn’t take much of his top end and he becomes the best thing in St Louis since Faulk. Mariota rejuvenates the Titans offence, and Cobb quickly moves to the top of the depth chart behind a line which improves a lot as Warmack finally harnesses his talent. Bell replaces Jackson, Forte leaves the Bears and Diggs develops into Teddy’s favourite target. Then you wake up.

Realistically: Mariota may never be a fantasy starter, but he fills the need at QB, Gurley and Cobb offer solid RB3 options and Hilton is a very good WR2. The needs at TE and S can be filled in free agency, with good options available there.

Dynasty of Sadness

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.

What you started with: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.12, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02. Calais Campbell*, Cam Newton

What you ended up with: Ameer Abdullah, Jaelen Strong, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Bud Dupree, Arik Armstead, DeAndre Carter, Zach Zenner, Eddie Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Markus Wheaton, Sheldon Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Paul Richardson*, Drew Brees

The worst case: You wasted your top pick on a back up, and have thoroughly sewn up a wholly worthless Detroit backfield. Robinson and Jones are gambles that don’t work out. Armstead is a project who never projects to anything and Wheaton, Williams and Osweiler don’t even make it through roster cuts. With no targets in the passing game Brees wastes the last couple of years of his fantasy relevance and Teddy never kicks on, leaving two QBs who rank just outside the top 10. A third concussion in three years leads to a long lay off and he returns a shadow of his best on limited workloads, meanwhile Amari Cooper tears it up and somehow this trade ends up looking like the Sadness got the worst end.

The upside: Lacy is the RB1 the Sadness needed and Abdullah quickly replaces Bell who’d plateaued at mediocre to become a good RB2. Strong is a solid WR2/3, Richardson and Dupree are defensive starters, Jones replaces Morris who leaves in free agency and Robinson replaces Gore in 12 months. Carter outperforms Perriman and Armstead develops into the beast his physical stature suggests.

Realistically: Brees fills the need at QB immediately, giving time for Bridgewater to develop, Lacy is a definite filler for RB1. The need at TE could be filled in the medium term with a free agent rookie and Sheldon Richardson is a solid starting DE2. Dupree fills a need at LB and could play from year one. Need at DT remains. The Sadness are definitely improved in the draft, but for all the trading, they ended up with the same number of picks they started with and a lot of the trade pieces were middling at best.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pre-draft needs: RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.

What you started with: 1.03, 2.03, 2.11, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 6.03, 7.03. Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Steve Smith*, Brock Osweiler, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

What you ended up with: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devin Smith, Mike Davis, Rashad Greene, Paul Dawson, Cam Newton, Keenan Allen*, Vernon Davis, Darren Sproles, Ryan Tannehill

The worst case: You traded away a legitimate RB1 at pennies on the dollar, bringing in wide receivers who will get thrown the ball (sideways) by Derek Carr, Genome and sulky Jay Cutler (until he’s cut next summer). Cam is a busted flush, who isn’t a viable fantasy starter without running and Tannehill is not Brees. Keenan Allen turns out to be the guy from 2014, rather than 2013 and Vernon Davis and Darren Sproles are only starting because they play for the Dungeoneers.

The upside: Both Cooper and White hit big early, and given a couple of years Devin Smith develops into a viable starter when the Jets find a QB. Cam’s pocket passing develops, but he remains a big threat on the ground, and a top 5 QB, while Tannehill becomes good tradebait for a QB-needy team. Both Clay and Davis are solid TEs at least for the short term and Levy remains a top tier LB for a few more years. Gore turns out to be actually invincible as has long been suspected.

Realistically: At best one of Cooper and White develops into a top tier WR1/2, but the other is serviceable as a 3rd receiver. Yes, the team sucks this year, but that just puts them in a good position to get a good RB in 2016. Paul Dawson should be a fine ILB, and Keenan Allen’s true worth is probably as a decent WR2, regardless of which, stealing him for Steve Smith was a stroke of genius. Defensive End is still a problem.

Tamworth Two

Pre-draft needs: WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.

What you started with: 1.04, 2.04, 3.04, 4.04, 5.04, 6.04, 7.04. Markus Wheaton, Vernon Davis, Orlando Scandrick, John Brown, Darren Sproles

What you ended up with: DeVante Parker, Duke Johnson, Vic Beasley, DeAndre Smelter, Cameron Artis-Payne, Landon Collins, Denzel Perryman, Karlos Williams, Darren Waller

The worst case: The bust rate on first round receivers is massive, and even if Parker doesn’t bust, there’s no guarantee he is anything more than a low end fantasy starter or flex in Miami’s uninspired offence. Smelter is a reach who never becomes relevant, Johnson is part of a committee and Artis-Payne and Williams only handcuffs. A defensive starter or two don’t make up for the misses on offense, meanwhile John Brown lights it up for the Champions of the Sun.

The upside: Parker works well underneath in Miami’s new offence and gets volume yardage as well as red-zone action. Johnson establishes himself as the main back in Cleveland and Beasley, Collins and Perryman all serve their teams well. Smelter needs time but becomes a flex option, replacing Boldin, while Williams and Artis-Payne back up the main men on Tamworth Two just fine.

Realistically: Parker is probably a WR2 at best, with his viability underneath and in the red zone making him a good option for Tannehill who doesn’t have the arm to make good deep throws. Johnson is in a committee in Cleveland, but could end up being the main part of it, either way, he’s probably a low end RB2 at best. Beasley should be a viable DE and Perryman and Collins could also be viable positional starters. John Brown might be the new TY Hilton, but without Andrew Luck that doesn’t mean much.

Champions of the Sun

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2/3, WR3.

What you started with: 1.05, 2.05, 3.05, 4.05, 5.05, 6.05, 7.05. DeSean Jackson, Paul Richardson*, Da’Norris Searcy, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee.

What you ended up with: Jay Ajayi, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr, Thomas Rawls, Bernardrick McKinney, Hau’oli Kikaha, MyCole Pruitt, Michael Bennett, Marcel Dareus, Calais Campbell*, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, John Brown

The worst case: Ajayi never displaces Lamar Miller, Williams is used situationally, Fowler never makes it to the NFL due to injuries, Dareus moves to nose, Helu disappears into Oakland’s depth chart much as he did in Washington, neither of the Browns are viable starters and Michael Bennett is more of a nose alongside San’derrick Marks. Lots of flex players, but few starters.

The upside: John Brown is the new TY Hilton with Palmer back, Dante Fowley and Williams develop into top tier NFL ends, and MyCole Pruitt takes over as the Vikings Tight End. Dareus ends up with all the play of an end, while remaining a DT by position on MFL.

Realistically: Having traded down and then out of the first there wasn’t a potential star available, and picking up the best two defenders in the mid rounds represents value, if not necessarily guaranteeing any success. Ajayi might be short term due to injury concerns, but it’s a short term position anyway, and with bell leading the RBs there’s  no need for him to be a star. Rawls is a wasted pick, but gives you a monopoly on the Seattle running backs who never actually play.

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Pre-draft needs: ‘elite’ players.

What you started with: 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 4.13, 5.06, 6.06, 7.06. Danny Lansanah, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Steven Jackson*

What you ended up with: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Justin Hardy, Trae Waynes, Shane Ray, Grady Jarrett, Trey Flowers, Christian Ringo, Jeremy Hill, Orlando Scandrick

The worst case: Gordon ensures control of a San Diego backfield that sucks, his tendency to bounce outside and get tackled for a loss, relying on speed to beat sub-par college players proves unsurprisingly unsuccessful in the NFL. Conley discovers why Kansas receivers didn’t score a TD at all last year, Hardy is the new Harry Douglas while David Johnson ensure Arizona’s committee of mediocrity is maintained. With Green returning and Bernard fitter, Hill ends up part of a committee also, although not as mediocre as the one in Arizona, neither Bernard nor Hill are much more than RB2s.

The upside: Hill, Ellington, Johnson and Bernard fall into more traditional 1/2 roles giving 2 good starters, Conley shows the reason why KC didn’t score touchdowns was a lack of talent, rather than Alex Smith & Andy Reid and Gordon is the game-changing playmaker the Chargers traded up for. Waynes is a solid selection at CB, and Scandrick makes up a starting pair at the position with him.

Realistically: There’s probably an RB1 somewhere in the mess of Ellington, Hill, Bernard, Johnson, Oliver and Gordon, but whether there’s more than one is hard to call, and they could easily all get in each others ways. Conley and Hardy are upside picks, but both probably top out at WR2 or WR3. Shane Ray could be a decent DE in a year’s time, but might not offer much immediately. Hill and Gordon offer the best chance of hitting on an elite player and Green’s return to fitness should provide one at WR, but ultimately, the need to find an elite player or two probably wasn’t met in this draft.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Pre-draft needs: QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.

What you started with: 1.07, 2.07, 3.07, 4.07, 5.07, 6.07, 7.07.

What you ended up with: TJ Yeldon, Devin Funchess, Stephone Anthony, Randy Gregory, Danny Shelton, Ahmed Brooks

The worst case: Gerhart takes over the Jags backfield making Yeldon wait. Funchess’ lack of pace combined with Cam’s erratic throwing make for a poor combination, Anthony barely plays, Shelton is a nose and Randy Gregory is a bit too much of a prick for the cowboys to stomach.

The upside: Gregory is a solid steal in the middle rounds, and Anthony blossoms with improved scoring for inside backers. Funchess is an Olsen like workable WR2, and Yeldon gives the Jags a proper running back threat, it not at elite one.

Realistically: There’s still a need at Tight End, and Shelton (being a Nose) is probably not going to fill the need at tackle. Projecting Anthony as an LB1 in the short-term seems a streatch, and the need at QB was not filled due to Kelkowski not recognising the danger when the Losers traded up. Yeldon might be a starter at RB, but there wasn’t too serious a need at the position anyway, so he might end up being a reasonable chip for a trade. Funchess could go either way, but projects as at best a bench option in a fairly limited Panthers passing attack.

DynaSore Losers

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB

What you started with: 1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08, 5.08, 6.08, 7.08. Sheldon Richardson.

What you ended up with: Nelson Agholor, Jameis Winston, Sammie Coates, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Clive Walford, Jake Ryan, Danielle Hunter

The worst case: Agholor dropped for a reason, and that reason was Sam Bradford, who isn’t good before he gets hurt and is Mark Sanchez after. Coates never gets a look in at Pittsburgh and Odighizuwa never replaces JPP. Winston meanwhile is every bit as good as advertised and becomes the best quarterback serving time in federal prison, trading Richardson for him turns out even worse as the massive hole at DE goes unfilled.

The upside: Winston is every bit as good as advertised in the NFL, proving to be almost as good as Luck and replacing Manning for 2016 in the Losers starting QB slot. Agholor develops into a WR1 due to his ability to turn routine plays into huge gains and be a threat in the red zone. Coates meanwhile shows his big game talent regularly, replacing Bryant and Wheaton as a clear #2 option for Roethlisberger. Ryan and Odighizuwa are solid defensive starters from the early days and Walford is a decent bench option at TE.

Realistically: There’s a hole at DE that Odighizuwa won’t fill in 2015, and Hunter is even less likely to. No viable tackle is found and the weaknesses in defence undermine the team by costing silly points each week. There is a serious lack of depth at RB, and even covering bye weeks, let alone injuries, will be tough.

Here Comes the Brees

Pre-draft needs: RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S

What you started with: 1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09. Marcel Dareus, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, Keenan Allen, Martellus Bennett

What you ended up with: Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Maxx Williams, Shaq Thompson, Garrett Grayson, Jordan Hicks, Steven Jackson*, Steve Smith*, DeSean Jackson, Danny Lansanah, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee

The worst case: Perriman, Dorsett and Williams offer little to nothing in 2015, and don’t exactly light it up in 2016 either. Jackson remains the boom/bust receiver who misses 2-4 games a year with injuries. Owning the browns backfield is as worthwhile as it would seem and Coleman is a RB2 in the good years. Keenan Allen refinds his 2013 form.

The upside: Coleman establishes himself early and for a number of years as an RB1-/2+ and Perriman replaces Smith fairly seemlessly as a WR2-/3+. Williams is a solid tight end with a QB who loves throwing to him, and establishes himself as a solid TE1 and Dorsett’s talent sees him work his way into the team in 2015, with Hilton barely missed in 2016. Marquise Lee becomes a good depth receiver with his fitness issues overcome.

Realistically: There were a lot of players drafted, but this is a long-term sort of draft. Tight Ends rarely offer much in year one, Dorsett doesn’t offer much hope of a strong first year and Baltimore’s offence is hardly electric, suggesting Perriman will need time also. Ultimately this draft was one to position the team to be more competitive in 2016, and Dorsett, Perriman and Coleman should do that. 2015 will likely be rough though.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Pre-draft needs: DE1, LB, CB, S

What you started with: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7.10. Jeremy Hill, TY Hilton, Ryan Tannehill

What you ended up with: Dorial Green-Beckham, Eric Kendricks, Javorius Allen, Mario Edwards Jr, Henry Anderson, Bryce Petty, Martellus Bennett, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

The worst case: Trading starting offensive pieces for middling offensive and defensive starters is a tactic that backfires. Bennett is an expensive back-up for Gronk if he stays fit and a poor replacement if he doesn’t, Edelman isn’t going to replace Jones if he gets injured (again), and Ogletree is an upgrade at LB but at a stiff price. Kendricks is an ILB and doesn’t crack the top 20 LBs any time soon, Allen is the 3rd RB in Baltimore and DGB is nowhere on the Titans depth chart. Henry Anderson joined one of the worst rushing defences in the NFL.

The upside: Anderson becomes the pass rush in Indianapolis and the upgrades on defence offer more to the Firebirds than they lose on offence. Edelman is a good WR2, with Jones fit ahead of him and Hill isn’t missed because Lynch and Anderson carry the rock effectively and a lot.

Realistically: If / when Jones gets an injury the team will suffer as Edelman simply doesn’t have the potential to put up WR1 points that Hilton did and while Hill won’t be missed with Anderson and Lynch putting up solid RB1 points it’s likely that the points gained on defensive upgrades such as Ogletree and Levy only balance those lost on offensive players, with the team overall showing more variance in scoring and losing one or two more games in down weeks as a result.

 

What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Defence)

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This is the part Manboob has been waiting for – the safeties (and the rest of the defence). So without further ado, let’s get straight into it…

While it might seem sensible to go deeper and consider the 2nd and 3rd rounds, it’s ultimately too low a contract in the third round and the range of players it brings in makes it a bit of a crap shoot to go that low and hope for anything more useful to arise from it.

Defensive Ends

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01 $20, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Mario Williams		 171.50
145.00
157.75		 158.1 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.02 $19, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014		 Cameron Wake
Greg Hardy
Robert Quinn		 165.75
144.50
155.75		 155.3 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07		 $18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 5 2012
2013
2014		 John Abraham
Muhammed Wilkerson
Jerry Hughes		 164.50
138.85
137.50		 147.0 Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
1.08 $13, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Antonio Smith
Cameron Jordan
Everson Griffen		 147.75
138.00
131.75		 139.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Carlos Dunlap
Chandler Jones
Demarcus Ware		 147.15
137.25
130.05		 138.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.10 $11, 4 years 9 2012
2013
2014		 Michael Bennett
Carlos Dunlap
Carlos Dunlap		 133.75
132.75
125.50		 130.7 Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years		 10 2012
2013
2014		 Jared Allen
Jared Allen
Calais Campbell		 132.50
130.75
118.80		 127.4 Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
Trent Cole (127.88)
Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 12 2012
2013
2014		 Mario Williams
Osi Umenyiora
Chris Clemons		 131.25
124.80
113.75		 123.3 Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014		 Cameron Jordan
Rob Ninkovich
Charles Johnson		 130.50
119.25
113.00		 120.9 Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
Kevin Carter (115.09)
Cameron Wake (114.91)
Cliff Avril (114.87)

Financially speaking you’d be paying a defensive end more than everyone except Quinn and Watt, so at the very top of the draft you’d be looking for a seriously talented player and any end taken in the first two rounds should be a viable starter over a 4 year period.  One thing to consider when taking an end is that this is a position where the best players have good longevity – Peppers, Allen, Suggs, Watt, Freeney are guys who’ve been good since they joined the league and they have been good for a long time since.

Defensive Tackles

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years		 1 2012
2013
2014		 Geno Atkins
Kyle Williams
Ndamukong Suh		 254.00
204.50
201.50		 220 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
1.05 $16, 4 years 2 2012
2013
2014		 Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Aaron Donald		 197.00
180.25
188.00		 188.4
1.06
1.07		 $15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 3 2012
2013
2014		 Nick Fairley
Nick Fairley
Sen’Derrick Marks		 150.25
172.00
177.50		 166.6 Reggie White (173.41)
1.08 $13, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014		 Henry Melton
Ndamukong Suh
Marcel Dareus		 132.50
152.00
166.00		 150.2 Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
1.09 $12, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 Gerald McCoy
Marcel Dareus
Gerald McCoy		 132.25
134.00
157.75		 141.3 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
1.10 $11, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Kyle Williams
Jason Hatcher
Johnathan Hankins		 132.25
126.75
131.25		 130.1 Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
Chandler Jones (131.5)
Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammad Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 7 2012
2013
2014		 Dwan Edwards
Cullen Jenkins
Stephen Paea		 112.75
122.00
127.25		 120.7 Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammed Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 Vince Wilfork
Sen’Derrick Marks
Kyle Williams		 111.00
118.25
121.20		 116.8 Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
Sheldon Richardson (117.88)
Bryant Young (115.77)
Tony McCoy (115.1)
Vonnie Holliday (113.99)
Jim Flanigan (113.97)

There’s a little bit of cross-over between tackles and ends, but basically any pick in the first two rounds would need to be a clear starter over the four years of their contract, even at the back end of the second round. Guys who’ve been at the top of the scoring in recent years don’t feature in the list of rookies, and that suggests that even the best DTs don’t necessarily perform well from their first days in the league. All told, spending even a late second round pick on a DT is going to be a stretch.

Linebackers

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Lawrence Timmons
Navorro Bowman
Clay Matthews		 168.25
198.55
156.50		 174.4 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
1.03 $18, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 Zach Brown
Jerrell Freeman
Connor Barwin		 165.10
185.05
155.25		 168.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.04 $17, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Demarcus Ware
Alec Ogletree
Jamie Collins		 164.75
173.55
155.25		 164.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.05 $16, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 Rob Ninkovich
Daryl Smith
Lavonte David		 155.50
165.10
146.50		 155.7 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
1.06 $15, 4 years 11 2012
2013
2014		 Justin Houston
DeAndre Levy
Junior Galette		 139.25
149.90
130.25		 147.2 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
1.07
1.08
1.09		 $14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years		 14 2012
2013
2014		 Lance Briggs
Danny Trevathan
Terrell Suggs		 137.30
144.95
130.00		 139.8 Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
1.10 $11, 4 years 15 2012
2013
2014		 Ryan Kerrigan
Vontaze Burfict
Luke Kuechly		 137.30
144.95
130.00		 137.4 Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 17 2012
2013
2014		 Shaun Phillips
Ryan Kerrigan
Brandon Marshall		 136.50
143.75
121.00		 133.8 Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
2.05
2.06
2.07		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years		 19 2012
2013
2014		 Rob Jackson
Brian Orakpo
Bruce Irvin		 132.65
136.65
116.40		 128.6 Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
2.08
2.09		 $8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 21 2012
2013
2014		 Derrick Johnson
Derrick Johnson
Danny Lansanah		 128.25
134.40
113.50		 125.4 Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 22 2012
2013
2014		 Luke Kuechly
Trent Cole
Jason Worilds		 127.50
133.50
113.00		 124.7 Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
LaMarr Woodley (119.65)

Let’s face it, you’d have to be a little nuts to blow a top 10 pick on a Linebacker, not that they’re not capable of delivering value for that, but they lack the upside of an offensive player. All of which said, a second round linebacker would be looking at producing a starter’s performance over 4 years, but as a 2nd or 3rd best on your team in that role, and unlike DTs there’s plenty of recent comparators to suggest there’s value to be had. With more teams transitioning to 3-4 defences, outside guys playing as pass rushing ends can represent good value with DE-type performance at an LB price and as with DEs, there’s enough in the comparative rookies to suggest that a good LB is a decent long-term option at the position who can produce for years. Unlike ends however there’s not really the late round breakout stars, if they’re not taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft then they quickly drop into fantasy irrelevance.

Cornerbacks

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years		 N/A N/A
1.06 $15, 4 years 1 2012
2013
2014		 Aqib Talib
Brandon Boykin
Charles Tillman		 234.60
159.48
140.45		 178.2 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
1.07
1.08
1.09		 $14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years		 2 2012
2013
2014		 Richard Sherman
Deangelo Hall
Kyle Fuller		 204.20
157.65
132.35		 164.7
1.10 $11, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Tim Jennings
Richard Sherman
Vontae Davis		 178.35
151.95
130.15		 153.5 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Patrick Peterson
Alterrun Verner
Brent Grimes		 159.85
142.28
128.00		 143.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 6 2012
2013
2014		 Janoris Jenkins
Tramon Williams
Joe Haden		 155.55
135.50
123.75		 138.3 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Casey Hayward
Captain Munnerlyn
Jason McCourty		 142.85
130.85
123.50		 132.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
Kyle Fuller (129.65)

Well, this is painful. There’s no corner in the league on more than a top 5 pick, and you’re looking at any corner taken in the first two rounds being a bad value pick who’s going to have to immediately produce great numbers, and even at the end of the second round you’re looking at guys who’d be in the top 5 rookies of the last 20 years. One thing to note, as with the linebacker position, there’s a pretty clear drop in the performance of players picked after the first two rounds, and despite the well-known stories about Sherman and the Seahawks finding great backs cheap in the late rounds, this is the exception rather than the rule, and in the case of Sherman a significant exception at that.

Safeties

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years		 2 2012
2013
2014		 Jairus Byrd
Troy Polamalu
James Ihedigbo		 155.35
161.35
150.10		 155.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.03 $18, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Reshad Jones
Antrel Rolle
Mike Adams		 144.35
160.80
140.90		 148.7 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07		 $17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Eric Weddle
Michael Mitchell
Glover Quin		 139.60
141.55
139.70		 140.3 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
1.08 $13, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 LaRon Landry
William Moore
Rashead Johnson		 135.95
139.35
137.35		 137.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Thomas DeCoud
Earl Thomas
Tashaun Gipson		 132.90
130.85
131.80		 131.9 Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
1.10 $11, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 William Moore
TJ Ward
Charles Woodson		 131.35
126.95
124.90		 127.7 Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 10 2012
2013
2014		 Danieal Manning
James Ihedigbo
Reggie Nelson		 124.35
123.15
120.90		 122.8 Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
2.05
2.06
2.07		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years		 11 2012
2013
2014		 Morgan Burnett
Charles Woodson
Kemal Ishmael		 123.35
122.30
118.45		 121.4 Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
2.08
2.09		 $8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 12 2012
2013
2014		 Major Wright
Eric Weddle
Ryan Mundy		 122.25
118.75
116.95		 119.3 Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014		 Michael Griffin
Aaron Williams
Kendrick Lewis		 122.15
115.80
116.20		 118.1 Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
Anthony Henry (115.88)

Given Manboob’s love of the high-price Safety, it’s not a surprise to see you could just about justify the top pick of the draft on one. That said, it would only be justified if you could pick Ed Reed, who might just be the best Safety in the history of the NFL. Even then, you’re talking about only just justifying the price tag. All of which said, by the end of the second round a safety is not a terrible pick. I personally wouldn’t – the opportunity to get a good DE or DT there is solid, and the spread of players at relatively makeable scores suggest that it wouldn’t be hard to find any Safety to fill a roster gap, but they’re not an unreliable pick and can score reasonably well from the early part of their careers, with less pressure to be a top guy straight away compared to the cornerback market. Of course, it’s entirely possible this is more a reflection of the insanity of the Dynabowl’s safety market, rather than a real value statement.

Ultimately, there’s no real evidence to suggest that selecting a defensive player in even the first round makes a good value pick, any player picked is going to need to justify not just a roster spot, but a regular starting spot in his first couple of years. But, by the middle of the second round, they’re definitely players to start thinking about and at positions like CB, S and Linebacker where the performance of high picks v lower ones suggests NFL teams are pretty handy at drafting players it’s possibly worth considering reaching and over-paying (as long as you aren’t in a terrible cap situation) simply because there’s such a strong correlation, compared to other positions, between draft pick and rookie success.

Replacement Level: Week 7

League Business Replacement Level No Comments

After my second resounding Manboob victory of the season, Geoffrey has seen fit to leave me the replacements. So let’s start by “thanking” him with a review of how he did do and could have done:

    Proj Actual FA Rank Best Best Points
QB Stanton 4.28 0 7= Mike Glennon, TB 18.56
RB Rodgers 5.15 0.9 18 Fozzy Whittaker, CAR 11.6
RB Ogbannaya 3.5 0 28= Roy Helu, WAS 6.6
RB Robinson 2.825 3.6 7
WR Johnson, S 2.9 5.3 15 Andre Holmes, OAK 24.1
WR Wright 3.9 3.8 18 Robert Woods, BUF 15.8
WR Ginn Jr 2.2 2.375 25 Brandon Lloyd, SFO 14
WR LaFell 4.6 21.7 2* Chris Hogan, BUF 13.2
TE Carlson 4.4 1.4 14 James Casey, PHI 8.6
TE Lance Kendricks, STL 8.2
PK Cantazaro 6.4 10.45 1* Mike Nugent, CIN 9.7
PN Ryan 0 5.675 10 Steve Weatherford, NYG 12.425
 
DE Ngata 2 1.25 25= Vinny Curry, PHI 15
DE Gholston 1 4.5 10 George Johnson, DET 13.75
DT Guion 0.5 3 13= Evander Hood, JAC 13
LB Robinson 2.5 5 20* Tahir Whitehead, DET 26.95
LB Sheard 0 1 54= Dan Skuta, SFO 23.5
LB Durant 1.5 4 26= Justin Tuggle, HOU 16.05
LB Graham 1 19 3* Alex Okafor, ARI 16
S Ishmael 4 3 14= Rashad Johnson, ARI 38.8
S Jefferson 5.65 1 26= Dontae Johnson, SFO 20
CB Cox 0 6.25 12* Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 22.65
CB Arrington 1.5 1.25 43* Buster Skrine, CLE 19.5
 
  59.805 104.45 367.985
 

 

 

Much like Bill Belichick Mangboob is a coach / GM, and much like Bill he spends a lot of time being grumpy in hoodies. This is not where the similarity ends, as both Bill and Manboob show a knack for coaching the shit out of his players, getting far more than the traditional 110% out of his players with an impressive 175% improvement. Unfortunately, also like Bill, Manboob is a terrible GM specialising in identifying players who have an awful lot of shit to be coached out, and the 104 he scored, while impressive against the predictions, was a long way short of the near 370 possible.

Overall Manboob finds himself coaching the Replacements to their second lowest score, and didn’t manage to beat a single proper team, leaving Pete’s week one effort still the best the Replacements have managed, and the only time the replacements have beaten a DynaBowl franchise.

    Proj Actual CtSOoT* Score Teams beaten
Week 1 Pete Conaghan 89.385 150.74 1.69 3
Week 2

Move along nothing to see here
Week 3 Ben Hendy 89.795 126.64 1.41 0
Week 4 James Goodson 52.4 97 1.85 0
Week 5 Iran Kulkowski 79.2 144.535 1.82 0
Week 6 Geoffrey Manboob 59.805 104.45 1.75 0
Week 7 David Slater 72.025

Anyway, enough trashing Manboob (power-ranked 10th out of 10 right now), it’s time to introduce Week 7’s replacements.*Coaching the Shit Out of Them

Ladies and gentlemen (well, just gentlemen) please could we have a tepid and disinterested round of applause for your offence!

Starting Quarterback – Charlie Whitehurst (Ten): Ranked 4th – Projected 9 points

This really comes down to a choice between 4 potential starters – Orton, Fitzpatrick, Genome Smith and Whitehurst.

Half man, half beard... ALL BEARD
Half man, half beard… ALL BEARD

Fitz may look like he’s eating a squirrel through his helmet grill, but he’s likely to be a liability against a Pittsburgh defence who have held opposing QBs to very low scores (joint 4th best in fantasy against QBs), and sadly doesn’t score any points for his squirrel-munching antics.

Orton is up against an even more effective Minnesota defence – 4th best in fantasy against QBs despite facing Matts Ryan and Stafford, Tom Fucking Brady, Adam Rodgers and Brees in 5 of their 6 weeks.

Genome, is facing the Patriots – better than both Pittsburgh and Minnesota in terms of destroying a QB’s fantasy totals – and he is a truly fucking terrible QB.

Seen here in court, yesterday
Seen here in court, yesterday

This leaves Whitehurst, who is playing Washington’s incredibly forgiving defence, a defence so bad it made King Cunt Nick Foles looks good. Also Charlie has magnificent hair. The only real risk is that Jake Locker is fit enough to play Sunday, but even if he is, it’s likely Whitehurst gets 2 quarters and he could still outscore the others in that time.

Starting Running Backs –

Roy Helu (Was): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.6pts

Jonathan Stewart (Car): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5.5pts

To say the running back options are thin would be an understatement. They’re anorexic, a graveyard of terrible selections.

Helu, who sees regular change of pace work in the Washington backfield is a steady option, and with a TD could put up a decent score.

The chaos in Carolina’s backfield means that the fit again Stewart (last week’s running back of the week in Carolina, Fozzy Whittaker, is questionable as is the week before’s Darrin Reaves) is likely to start and see the majority of carries when Cam doesn’t decide to do it all himself.

Starting Wide Receivers –

Andre Holmes (Oak): Ranked 3rd – Projected 5.4pts

Brandon Lloyd (SF): Ranked 27th – Projected 2.2pts

Jerricho Cotchery (Car): Ranked 4th – Projected 5.3pts

Robert Woods (Buf): Ranked 6th – Projected 4.525pts

Holmes is a no-brainer, and I’d be surprised if he were available for next week’s Replacement Level as he’s put up 13.4 and 24.1 points in the two games either side of the Raiders bye week with Carr starting to find his feet. Oakland has a good matchup this week, with Arizona having the most generous passing defence involved in this weekend’s games (31st in points to wide-receivers).

Lloyd has shown flashes of his old self, and knows Denver well, having been the NFL’s leading receiver in his time as a Bronco. A deep threat might prove necessary against a Denver defence which has been one of the best against opposing receivers.

Cotchery has been consistently average for Carolina so far, but with Benjamin suffering a mild concussion should see a greater workload this weekend. The Packers pass defence has been pretty good; holding opposing wideouts to less than the fantasy average, however this is as much a product of playing some average offences as anything else, and Miami lit them up for 156 receiving yards and 2 tds last week. Carolina is far from a dominant passing defence, but Green Bay has regularly demonstrated their difficulties handling a talented mobile QB and Cotchery could be the beneficiary.

Woods has emerged as a decent target for Orton and has seen a lot more looks in the passing game in recent weeks, unfortunately for the Bills, they’ve played a run of excellent defences over that period and that continues this week against the Vikes. 10 to 12 targets is a realistic number for Woods, and if he catches 7, he could find himself on the end of an 80 yard day, which would be good enough for my 4th choice.

Starting Tight Ends –

Jermaine Gresham (Cin): Ranked 2nd – Projected 4.5pts

Ben Watson (NOS): Ranked 13th – Projected 1.9pts

Ah, Jermaine Gresham… Sabotaging fantasy teams with his promise and and lack of production for about 5 years now. With the Bengals struggling for bodies who can catch passes Gresham had his best week of the year – in fact a better week than the whole year put together. Another 60+ yard outing beckons against Indy who’ve been generous to TEs so far this year.

With Jimmy Graham out, Watson is the usual number 2 tight end and should see a nice little uptick in his production. As a Jimmy Graham owner, I can testify first hand to how Drew Brees appears to have forgotten his Tight End exists so far this year, but at a thin position Watson has upside. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Kicker –

Caleb Sturgis (Mia): Ranked joint 4th – Projected 6.4pts

A veritable treasure trove of riches at Kicker compared with the other offensive positions. Gould would be a fine choice, but Sturgis should get lots of opportunities to kick against a fairly poor Chicago defence, and has only missed once this year – from 48 yards.

Starting Punter –

Steve Weatherford (NYG): Ranked N/A – Projected 0pts

Not projecting points for punters is a major oversight by MFL. Weatherford is the second best punter so far amongst free agents, and he was the best in the league last year. His leg may be sore after last weekend, but he, unlike the rest of the Giants’ offence, could at least reflect on a job well done against Philly.

 

On to the defence… As a general rule, projected scores for defensive players are a joke. We’re dealing with big play scoring, and the league doesn’t seem to project big play scores, as such the projections are essentially useless as a guide here.

Starting Defensive Ends –

Haloti Ngata (Oak): Ranked 1st – Projected 2pts

George Johnson (Det): Ranked joint 38th – Projected 0pts

Ngata is a steady presence, with the potential for a big game, and his ability to make plays on passing downs matches up well against their pass happy offence.

Johnson is in good form, with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss in his last two games. Dallas abused New Orleans’ offense, and Detroit bring a much better defensive unit to the game. Johnson can ride his hot-streak to make Drew Brees life slightly more miserable. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Defensive Tackle –

Sammy Lee Hill (Ten): Ranked joint 25th – Projected 0pts

Tennessee have a good defence, tough, but not that special – that’s why their players litter the DynaBowl free agency pool. They also have the Washington Redskins in town, so expect to see a lot of them on my team this week.

Starting Linebackers –

Kamerion Wimbley (Ten): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Pernell McPhee (Bal): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

Eric Walden (Ind): Ranked joint 31st – Projected 1pt

Jabaal Sheard (Cle): Ranked joint 63rd – Projected 0pts

These are mostly match-up based. Tennessee and Washington, Baltimore and Atlanta (who are terrible on the road) and Cleveland and Jacksonville should provide plenty of opportunities for these guys to make plays. Indy play the Bengals, who’ve shown one of the better lines in the early stages of the season, but this is a trend thing. The Bengals line seems to be getting worse, and the Indy defence seems to be finding its feet. Walden has three sacks on the year and five tackles for a loss, I like him to have a good game.

Starting Safeties –

Michael Griffin (Ten): Ranked 2nd – Projected 5pts

Roman Harper (Car): Ranked 9th – Projected 3pts

Griffin is actually projected worse than his Tennessee safety colleague (15 points!), but has consistently out-performed him this year so far. Backing Kirk Cousins to throw stupid interceptions is basically playing with house money.

I was tempted to double down on Tennessee, but while Harper might be old, but he’s still pretty good in the passing game. The scoring we use doesn’t worry about players getting lit up, or defences who can’t stop their opponents – Green Bay figure to see a fair amount of the ball against Carolina, and Rodgers will make plays all day long, meaning at worst Harper should provide a reasonable return in tackles, defended passes and the like, with the potential for a big play along the way.

Starting Cornerbacks –

Adam Jones (Cin): Ranked 1st – Projected 5.2pts

Blidi Wreh-Wilson (Ten): Ranked joint 2nd – Projected 4pts

Jones plays in a good Cincy secondary who should get the chance to make plays against pass-happy Andy Luck, who rarely lets a game pass without one interception at least. Jones was also used as a returner last week, and that little point bump can only help.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson possesses an excellent name. He had a huge game against the Jags, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll repeat that, Tennessee are playing the Redskins, and it could be jackpot time for anyone in that secondary. I’m also loathe to pick two players from the same club at corner or safety, else Newman would have been a good play here.

And so, without further ado, your full week 7 replacements (and the projected best replacements teams)

    Proj Rank among FA Best Best Points
QB Charlie Whitehurst, TEN 9 4 Kyle Orton, BUF 12.06
RB Roy Helu, WAS 5.6 1 Roy Helu, WAS 5.6
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5 2 Jonathan Stewart, CAR 5.5
WR Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4 3 Andrew Hawkins, CLE 6.2
WR Brandon Lloyd, SFO 2.2 27 Jarius Wright, MIN 6.1
WR Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3 4 Andre Holmes, OAK 5.4
WR Robert Woods, BUF 4.525 6 Jerricho Cotchery, CAR 5.3
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5 2 Lance Kendricks, STL 9
TE Ben Watson, NOS 1.9 13 Jermaine Gresham, CIN 4.5
PK Caleb Sturgis, MIA 6.4 4= Robbie Gould, CHI 7.4
PN Steve Weatherford, NYG 0 N/A N/A 0
 
DE Haloti Ngata, BAL 2 1 Haloti Ngata, BAL 2
DE George Johson, DET 0 38= Osi Umenyiora, ATL 1
DT Ian Williams, SFO 0.5 7= Damon Harrison, NYJ 1
DT Sammie Lee Hill, TEN 0 25= Vince Wilfork, NEP 1
LB Kamerion Wimbley, TEN 1 31= Jacquian Williams, NYG 3
LB Pernell McPhee, BAL 0 63= Jon Beason, NYG 2.5
LB Eric Walden, IND 1 31= Philip Wheeler, MIA 2.5
LB Jabaal Sheard, CLE 0 63= Tahir Whitehead, DET 2.5
S Michael Griffin, TEN 5 2 George Wilson, TEN 15
S Roman Harper, CAR 3 9 Michael Griffin, TEN 5
CB Adam Jones, CIN 5.2 1 Adam Jones, CIN 5.2
CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN 4 2= Terence Newman, CIN 4
 
  72.025 111.76

 

I’d nominate manboob, for nominating me, but that seems like a vicious circle, and he’s already had his chance and blown it. So for next week I’d like to nominate manager of the Firebeards, Neil to see if he can’t beat his actual team’s score for the week.

Replacement Level: Week 6

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Brought to you by the one and only Geoffrey Manboob…

Many thanks to Iran for nominating me to complete this week’s replacement team after I beat him again. This is always a tricky prospect given the size of everyone’s rosters and with injuries and bye weeks in full effect, but given how bad I always seem to do, I’m not holding out much hope for my selected 22 “Expendables”.

General Thought Process

The players that are available are generally high risk/reward players. Fringe stars who could score you 15 points in one week but only score 1.5 for the remainder of the season. In fact, most rookie gambles have already been stashed away. Due to this, I’ve tried to avoid being influenced by total player scores for the season or the MFL predictions weekly predictions. Instead I’ve tried to pick players who have good match-ups as well as some level of consistency over all their starts. I have probably picked a lot of the higher scoring free agents but I’ve tried not to be overly persuaded by this statistic.

The Team – Skill Positions

Obviously the most important part of any fantasy side is the skill positions, so I’ll pick these first:

PK – Chandler Cantanzaro (Ari)

Cantanzaro is Arizona’s rookie kicker who has had a great start to his NFL career. He’s been steady through his first 4 starts and should continue this against Washington this week

PN – Jon Ryan (Sea)

Difficult to know how much the Seahawks will need to punt against the Cowboys, but what impressed me in week 5 was the quality of Seattle’s punt coverage. Ryan had excellent distance and hang-time on his kicks, forcing the opposition to start deep within their territory. The Cowboys’ defense has been a surprise this year, so Ryan may see plenty of action.

Offense

QB – Drew Stanton (Ari)

Stanton has done well stepping into Carson Palmer’s shoes, but struggled last Sunday when the Broncos gave him a bit of a battering. Week 6 sees a good matchup for Arizona at home against Washington and their soft secondary. The Cardinals have some great receiving targets, so they should be able to move the ball downfield effectively through the air as Washington are one of the most generous defenses for fantasy QBs

RB – Jaquizz Rodgers (Atl)

Running backs by committee in Atlanta and one that seems to be growing. Rodgers provides the speed option out of the backfield, so he could be at the races if he makes it to the second level (see his TD touchdown against the Giants). It’s difficult to know how much action he’ll see, but with the threat of injury always hanging over Steven Jackson, he could quickly become the feature back. Also his pace against Chicago’s linebackers could make a difference.

Chris Ogbonnaya (Car)

Someone has to run the ball in Carolina and as the last man standing, that someone appears to be Ogbannaya. While Riverboat Ron will be hopeful that Jonathan Stewart can take some snaps on Sunday, it would appear the Ogbonnaya will continue to shoulder the majority of the load. Carolina face the Bengals this week who were taken apart on the ground by Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in Week 5.

Denard Robinson (Jac)

Wildcard selection because the pickings at RB are very slim. I’m a believer of sticking to my philosophy, which is selecting 3 running backs and 4 wide receivers. Robinson continues to improve and has looked lively when carrying the ball this year. While he won’t see the majority of snaps, hopefully he can exploit some third down situations for big yardage. Plus he was the cover star of NCAA Football 2014

WR – Stevie Johnson (SF)

Odd selection seeing as I just sacked him from the Dynasty of Sadness, but he’s too good not to select here. Yes, he’s hamstrung by Kaep’s inability to play QB, but he appears to have won the 3rd receiver position in San Francisco and they’ve facing one of the worst pass offenses in the league. He should make a handful of catches and maybe even bag a touchdown.

Jarius Wright (Min)

This all rests on my love of Teddy B. In Bridgeater’s only start, Wright was used effectively in the screen game. While Detroit are a much sterner test than the porous Atlanta defense, I’d expect Norv Turner to run a similar game plan, allowing Teddy to complete plenty of short passes to keep the chains moving. While it’s too early to properly judge, Wright had some decent chemistry with Bridgeater.

Ted Ginn Jr (Ari)

As per Drew Stanton, I expect Arizona to more the ball well through the air. Ginn has the added advantage of being the 3rd receiver, therefore “covered” by the largely ineffective EJ Biggers or injured Tracy Porter. While that is appealing, what tips Ginn over the edge for selection is the fact he’s a top return man against one of the most shambolic special teams in the history of football. I wouldn’t rule out a touchdown for him.

Brandon LaFell (NE)

So, I’m low on Brady, the Patriots seem to be a run first team and they deploy 2 TE sets. Why have I gone for LaFell. Well, he’s the only receiver who can catch a ball. He’s the deep threat that allows the things above to work. I’ve been fairly bullish on LaFell all season and against a tough but limited defense in Buffalo, i think he could do well (if Tim can throw this week).

TE – John Carlson (Ari)

Any receiver playing in the seam against Washington will score touchdowns. John Carlson is in prime position to go all Larry Donnell this week. If Housler decides to take the Donnell role, Carlson could easily replicate Giants backup TE Daniel Fells with a touchdown.

Defence

DE – Haloti Ngata (Bal)

Baltimore’s very own Mr Interception this season. He’s had two big games and he’s a disruptive presence at the line against a poor Tampa Bay side that can’t run the ball well. Mike Glennon should see a fair amount of him.

William Gholston (TB)
Gholston has been steady through his first 4 games (after missing week 1), but that is partly what I’m looking for. I like the matchup this week against a stretch-zone running side like Balitmore. Getting pressure at the edge should lead to tackles and some pressure on Flacco, who struggled against an average Colts defense last week.

DT – Letroy Guion (GB)

Letroy Guion had a break out performance last week in a key position for the Packers defense. While he’s not done much before the blowout win over the Vikings last week, I like the matchup against Miami, who rush a lot between the tackles and have poor pass protection for Ryan Tannehill.

LB – Keenan Robinson (Was)

He’s quick, athletic and apparently good in coverage, which is why Perry Riley has been picking up the seem receivers. Robinson should be active against Arizona who will look to use the speed and ellusiveness of Andre Ellington as a receiver. Robinson has the size to challenge for passes to TEs or even a Larry Fitzgerald.

Jabaal Sheard (Cle)

Another pick based on steady performance. Sheard has been consistent and this week sees the Browns up against the Steelers who are enjoying a strong start to the season by LeVeon Bell. This selection was for a player who I expect to busy with tackles on a pretty tough Browns defense.

Justin Durant (Dal)

He’s might be the last man standing in Dallas who can play linebacker, but he’s had a good start to the season in a defense that has surprised many of us. He’s only played 3 of the 5 Dallas games this year, but he has plenty of tackles and a few forced fumbles. In week 6, Dallas face Seattle who will be looking to get their ground game going early on.

Brandon Graham (Phi)

Very consistent through the first 5 weeks as Graham seems to be resurrecting his career under Chip Kelly. It will be a tough assignment playing outside linebacker against the Giants, but there should be plenty of opportunities for his to rush and pressure Eli. With the Giants still running the ball, he should be busy with tackles too.

S – Kemal Ishmael (Atl)

Playing safety against Jay Cutler is normally a good sign for an interception. While Atlanta don’t have the best secondary, Ishmael is good enough to catch a Cutler pick.

Tony Jefferson (Ari)

Jefferson has been pretty impressive at safety this season. This week he faces Washington and the erratic decision making of Kirk Cousins. Cousins has more ups and downs than a yo-yo. After a good performance against Seattle, he’s due to regress. The strong Cardinals run defense should force him to air it out two. Jefferson could be set for a big game.

CB – Perrish Cox (SF)

3 Interceptions already for Cox and this week he gets to line up against whichever body that St Louis can agree to play quaterback. Cox could be the best opportunity for The Replacements posting a decent score this week.

Kyle Arrington (NE)

Are you sold on Kyle Orton as the guy that will save Buffalo’s offense? No, neither am I. While Orton isn’t as bad as EJ Manuel, I can see him making some bad throws this week. What Orton is good enough to know is don’t throw to Revis, which should be great for Arrington.

Well, that ended up taking a lot longer than I expected. I might as well finish off with my suggestion for next week’s GM. While ideally I would like Mark to show us how the Roster Doctor really does it, he’s far too busy eating bananas to even remember to draft or pick up waivers in the Chatterbowl. Therefore, I’d like to nominate “Mr Fantasy Football” himself, D-Slatz, to GM the Replacements in week 7.

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