Tag: Dan Smith

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two

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The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through.  This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.

Reality Bites

Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.

2014 Week 2 2014 Standing 2015 Week 2 POA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 1-1 (137 poa) 7-6 1-1 (181 poa) +44
Here Comes the Brees 1-1 (146 poa) 8-5 0-2 (152 poa) +6
Dynasore Losers 2-0 (175 poa) 8-5 2-0 (172 poa) -3
Kelkowski 2-0 (212 poa) 8-5 0-2 (153 poa) -59
Dynablinker Obamamen 0-2 (168 poa) 7-6 0-2 (156 poa) -12
Champions of the Sun 1-1 (181 poa) 6-7 2-0 (192 poa) +11
Tamworth Two 2-0 (185 poa) 6-7 1-1 (167 poa) -18
East Flanders Dungeoneers 1-1 (161 poa) 5-8 2-0 (158 poa) -3
Dynasty of Sadness 0-2 (129 poa) 5-8 0-2 (154 poa) +25
DynaHarder 0-2 (168 poa) 5-8 2-0 (223 poa) +55

So let’s get the good news out of the way.  DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process.  The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.

The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3rd highest score in week 1.

On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.

What Might Have Been

Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.

  2014 Week 2 2015 Week 2 PPOA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 188 ppoa 228 (79% eff) +40
Here Comes the Brees 210 ppoa 228 (67% eff) +18
Dynasore Losers 212 ppoa 244 (70% eff) +32
Kelkowski 265 ppoa 206 (74% eff) -59
Dynablaster Bombermen 233 ppoa 232 (67% eff) -1
Champions of the Sun 204 ppoa 258 (74% eff) +54
Tamworth Two 261 ppoa 216 (77% eff) -45
East Flanders Dungeoneers 212 ppoa 208 (76% eff) -4
Dynasty of Sadness 206 ppoa 211 (73% eff) +5
DynaHarder 250 ppoa 282 (79% eff) +32

The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.

For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.

Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.

In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.

Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.

Guest Previews 2015 – Dynablaster Bombermen by Pete Conaghan

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2014 Record: 7-6, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Offseason Review

The Bombermen had a reasonable draft, which was elevated by trading up a spot to nab Melvin Gordon at #5 after Tamworth took Devante Parker and The Brees took Tevin Coleman in a Bortles-esqe pick backed by deep conviction.  But can Gordon produce with a brand new offensive line in SD (one player returning at his position) and a second-year OC pilloried for his lack of imagination?  A hundred draw plays on 2nd and long will tell the story.

Free Agency saw a lot of wheeling and dealing with the view of bolstering attack and defense, the Bombermen committing resources to linebacker and corner in a reversal of the league’s accepted wisdom. Conor Barwin is a 3-down LB who will thrive and contribute even if his sack total may have been an outlier last year. The top fantasy corner in the game, Vontae Davis, will be top five for years to come, maybe.

Putting together potentially three of the best RBBCs in the league was an impressive feat, and hopefully doesn’t lead to angst further down the line. All six RBs are expected to get plenty of touches.

Outgoing trades were mostly fringe players and should not harm the team.

Where they will improve:  The Bombermen will hope that they have the right mixture of youth and experience, welcoming Andre Johnson into the WR corps to help out Anquan Boldin and the younger guys. Depth should not be an issue, with most position groups augmented and steady backups acquired.

Where they will regress:  The team strengthened at almost all positions, so any regression in league position may be linked to other teams becoming stronger more quickly – can the Bombermen keep up with the arms race? The only warning flags that exist are performance related – could the young 2nd and 3rd year running backs regress? They are unproven over time but the team’s depth should be enough to overcome all but a blanket running back failure.

2015 Prediction: First round of playoffs. Bombermen are a solid team, but do they have the star power to break open a playoff game?

2015 Commish Preview: Dynablaster Bombermen

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Team: Dynablaster Bombermen – Benjamin Hendy/Dan Smith

2014 Record: 7-6, 6th pick, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Melvin Gordon (RB), David Johnson (RB), Chris Conley (WR), Justin Hardy (WR), Trae Waynes (CB), Shane Ray (LB)

Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB), Cameron Wake (DE), Joe Flacco (QB)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Andre Johnson (WR), Vontae Davis (CB), Connor Barwin (LB), Jurrell Casey (DE), Orlando Scandrick (CB)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Frank Gore (RB), Devin McCourty (S)

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Charles Sims (RB), Danny Lansanah (LB), Andre Williams (RB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (S)

Preview:

Missing out on the playoffs on the last day of the 2014 season was blow, but one the team deserved. This was the second most over-achieving team with an AWE of 6.11, nearly a full game below the actual number of wins achieved through the season. The team had only a 39% chance of winning at least 7 games and so can be considered a little lucky.

In addition, the team was closer to the bottom of the league than the top when it came to total points and potential points while team selection efficiency was pretty much bang on league average at 78.6%. All told, a lot of work was needed in the off-season to revamp this team and kick on in 2015.

The work is only partly done at QB. Matt Ryan is a fine starter and with a new coach and OC in Atlanta and a good supporting cast, he should be absolutely fine, with top 10 numbers being the minimum expectation. Johnny Fucking Football is gone, just when he looked like becoming the best QB in Cleveland. But then none of the GMs of this league are in Cleveland – if they went, the moment they touched down they’d be a strong second at the minimum. RG3 will be given a season to see if anything is salvageable, but otherwise Chatterbowl winner Joe Flacco should provide able backup.

A lot of change at RB, with steal of the century (calling Lacy a steal is a disservice to the art of thievery) Jeremy Hill coming in. The team have three teams’ backfield situations wrapped up in San Diego, Cincinnati and Arizona, and while only Cincinnati would be considered a top 10 group, there’s hope that this could be one of the stronger RB units in the DynaBowl in 2015.

Less turnover at receiver, where less work was needed. Andre Johnson has the best QB situation of his HoF-worthy career and will be looking to make hay while he can while AJ Green will be looking to bounce back from a terrible down-year. Fantasy Football is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world and Green’s value has fallen but Hendy & Smith will be looking for it to be back at the top table come December.

The team has its 2014 rookies returning… well, two out of three. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is painful but one this roster should be able to withstand. Cooks looks to be the central figure in New Orleans while Jordan Matthews should be a high volume operator in Philadelphia. Anquan Boldin is a useful back-up, while Conley and Hardy represent developing players who are unlikely to contribute much in 2015.

While the loss of Benjamin undoubtedly hurt the WR options, it only offered a boost at TE where Greg Olsen should be the biggest beneficiary. Already a top 5 TE, he could be well placed to become the third man. ASJ, Jordan Cameron Jordan and Miychaele Rivieria all offer decent depth.

Positional changes mean there’s a bit of a lack of balance at DE and DT – too many of the former and too few of the latter could lead to a few problems in selection and if Jordan Hill gets injured there could be real issues on the line, but there’s good depth at all other positions. This was one of the best defences in 2014 and will be looking to keep a seat at the top table in 2015. It’s not going to be number 1 or 2, but has a good chance of being number 3 on that list. The only problem could be how to pick the right players each week.

Verdict:

This roster has been reshaped into one of the stronger options in the league. On paper. Given the underperformance of AJ Green last year, there’s surely no chickens being counted in the Bombermen head office. But even if players perform only at the lower end of expectations, this team should be competing for playoffs. If Hill, Green, and Ryan all fire like the stars they can be and if defensive selection goes well, they could be competing for top honours.

Prediction:

7-6, playoffs on head-to-head, anything more might be asking too much. They don’t have the strength and depth of the very best teams but they stand a chance of hitting the big time. Another season over .500 is the minimum expectation.

Alas, Smith and Phones

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Dan Smith has a very fortunate position in the world of the DynaBowl, which in some way balances out his unfortunate position in the real world, living in the wilds of Canada as he does. Unfortunately his remote location means that a face to face interview was not possible – they barely have electricity where Dan is, let alone a runway. Instead we are forced to carry out our interview over the crackliest of telegraph wires which may have led to some miscommunications, but hopefully I’ve managed to salvage a meaningful conversation from the electronic wreckage.

NB: Wherever I am unclear about what was said I have entered my interpretation of the conversation in [square brackets]. This may not reflect Smith’s original intent.

Ottawa's telephone, yesterday
Ottawa’s telephone, yesterday

I start by asking him about that stroke of great fortune he had in teaming up with Benjamin Hendy, the Commissioner of the DynaBowl league, the man who wrote the rulebook and the man with whom he co-runs the Dynablaster Bombermen. How will the dynamic work between them?

A: “Well, he wrote the rules so I see him handling most of the [cheating]. I’m more of a gut feeling type of guy who will just suggest stupid things that ensure we go out in the first round of the playoffs.”

Q: And have you had any hand in the rules?

A: “I haven’t had a hand in the rules, as quite frankly I am as baffled by them as [any fluent speaker of the English language would be].”

Q: So was there anything you’re cursing Hendy for missing out?

A: “[Basic literacy]? Seriously though, it would have been nice if the auction could have been held somewhere less accessible like beautiful Ottawa.”

Q: After the first year of the Chatterbowl this might have seemed like a dream pairing, with you and Hendy both making a bit of a run for the title, but Hendy really regressed in year two while you continued to excel. Are you worried he might drag you down?

A: “Well I may have gotten lucky a couple of years running but the fact that I couldn’t push on to at least the final suggests something is missing. I’m hoping that Hendy will add his special sauce that turns us into the Big Mac of Fantasy Football. Or a Whopper at the very least.”

Q: Now, being based over in North America, does that give you a strategic advantage, being closer to the action?

A: “I hope not, otherwise I should be doing a hell of a lot better than I have been. I do get to watch more games live but with the internet, [everybody’s ahead of me. My television only shows games in black and white, I can barely tell the sides apart].

Q: Are there disadvantages to the location? The CFL runs until November. Will that keep your eye off the pigskin?

A: “While it is true that Ottawa has a CFL team for the first time since 2005, they went and called themselves the “RedBlacks” and I can’t take a team seriously that just names itself after the colour of their uniforms so have sworn off CFL for the foreseeable future. [Moose knuckles on the other hand].”

Q: So what are the key transferables from the Chatterbowl? Where does The DynaBowl differ?

A: “Ultimately there are only two things that are the same in the Chatterbowl and The DynaBowl, the gentlemen [of low moral stature and even lower hygiene] who own the franchises and their cluelessness.”

Q: So what will the key to winning The DynaBowl be?

A: “The key is to tapping into the stupidity of all the other managers and making them do things that are disastrous to their team. Off the top of my head and thinking of nobody in particular, this will include things such as getting someone to buy Drew Brees for [a very reasonable] $300.”

Q: Is there anyone you particularly want to see on your team, once the auction is over and done with?

A: “I could not possibly comment at this time. Although I do really think we should be bidding high on all Saints players.”

Q: Who do you think are the greatest threats are in this league?

A: “The biggest threat to my sanity is probably David. The biggest threat in terms of winning the league is hard to say at this point, as nobody has shown that they actually have the faintest idea of [how to breath with their mouth shut, let alone manage a Dynasty League Football Team].”

Q: Have you suggest any tricks to Hendy to use at the auction? Anything to pull the wool over other owners or psyche them out?

A: “Every one of these answers is a trick.”

Q: Any message for your opposing GMs?

A: “Hey, have some drinks on me! Wait, what’s the exchange rate?”

I tell him.

A: “Hey, buy yourselves some beers, get really drunk and make some bad decisions!”

And with that the operator cuts in to explain that someone else in the province needs to use the phone line now and that our time is up.

BOOM goes the Dynablaster

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As a driving force behind the creation of the DynaBowl, Benjamin Hendy has a lot to live up to. It’s clear that the stresses and strains of such a linchpin position have started to take their toll the moment you see just how far his hairline has receded over the past 20 years. When I ask him about how he’s coping he jokes “I just wish my beard would start to go grey and cover up the ginger flecks.” Self-deprecation seems to undercut everything he says, and while he’s clearly desperate for his franchise, the Dynablaster Bombermen, to succeed, he’s also wary of raising expectations too high.

“It’s a double-edged sword,” he says, when asked about his twin roles in formulating the league and rule book and running a franchise. “I know the rules probably better than anyone else, but the time I spend working in the league central office is time I’m not spending scouting players and formulating our draft board.”

It’s lucky, then, that he’s teaming up with Dan Smith. “Yes and no. And the only negative there is that Dan won’t be at the auction. I’ll be playing the role of auctioneer and GM bidding on players. Dan is doing invaluable work valuing players and formulating strategy, but it’s all for nought if I can’t pull it off on the day.”

Ah yes, auction strategy. The start-up league requires a method for all players to be assigned to teams and the auction provides a fairer way for players to be distributed, allowing every team an equal shot at any player they wish to chase. It’s a format which is unfamiliar to most of the league members.

“I ran an auction start-up last year” confides Hendy, “Eight teams, deep rosters. I learnt a lot of lessons from the way I ballsed that up.” He allows himself a chuckle, but the implications of messing up the DynaBowl auction run much deeper. Every player will be assigned a contract and each team will be stuck with what they have, unless they can trade or draft (or more likely a combination of the two) their way out of it.

Hendy’s team in The Chatterbowl was also unsuccessful, ending up with a 15th place finish, after coming 3rd in year 1. “I had a terrible draft. Just terrible. I reached. I took too many rookies. Things went wrong right from the beginning when I kept Ray Rice instead of LeSean McCoy. I ummed and ahhed over that one and went with conventional wisdom rather than gut, which was a mistake. But then my entire draft was gut instinct and I buggered that up too.”

“But I’ve learnt an awful lot over the last 12 months. I feel that year 1 of the Chatterbowl was almost beginners luck. Like the guy at the card table who sits down and turns over aces first hand. Second year I got dealt a bad hand – I dealt myself a bad hand – and then spent the rest of the season dealing with that. I made some good trades and waiver pick-ups, I improved my draft position for this year and have a strong keeper in Gio Bernard.”

“I’ll be disappointed without a much stronger Chatterbowl showing and I expect to be able to pull together a decent roster for the Bombermen too. And Dan is integral to that.”

He places a great emphasis on that last part, making sure that it’s clear this is a team effort. Smith has been a Chatterbowl contender in both seasons and is a strong team member and it’s clear that Hendy wants to make sure those strengths are utilised.

“You can’t waste those talents. He knows his stuff. He can evaluate talent better than I can. It’s vital to ensure that, despite the 3,000 miles between us, we work as harmoniously as possible.”

And looking forward, I ask him, how have you strategised for the auction?

“We know the players we are targeting, we feel we have some values worked out. But it’s a mystery, right? We have no idea how any other team is going to play that auction. Is someone going to come out and blow $200 on Calvin Johnson [the budget is $500 for 50 players]? That’s what makes this so tough. You can’t have one strategy, you’ve got to have 10, or 20. You’ve got to be prepared for everything that gets thrown your way.”

“We know the team structure we want, we know what we’d like to spend and who we’d like to spend it on. We have our eyes on some sleepers, but in 3 months time will they still be sleepers? Who knows?”

But then that’s what this is, a journey into the great Fantasy unknown, I say.

“Aye, that it is,” he says. “That it is.”

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