Tag: Chatterbowl

Fun Facts About The 2017 Chatterbowl

The following things are all facts of various kinds from the 2017 Chatterbowl, or Chatterbowl history to date.

  • Three of the previous Chatterbowl Winners scored more points in the final than the the two 2017 Finalists scored, put together (112)
  • Every team has now made the playoffs at least once. The last to join the list were Spunky Beans (Ian Kulkowski) and Martysaurus Sex (Jay Kelly)
  • Every score between 39 and 133 (inclusive) has now been scored at least once
  • The three GMs to have scored the most points are David Slater (8289 in 96 games), Ben Hendy (8280 in 95 games) and Dan Sayles (8276 in 96 games) – 13 points covering those top 3
  • The top 4 players for average points per games have not played all 6 seasons to date (Chris Braithwaite, Dan Smith, Pete Conaghan and James Goodson)
  • Dan Sayles has longest playoff streak (and it’s still active), making the playoffs every year from 2013 to 2017 (5)
  • Other top playoff teams (Total/Active Streak in brackets), Ben Hendy (5/4), David Slater (4/0), Mat Ward (4/4)
  • Mat Ward is the only person to have won 6 games against another GM and not lost to them (he is 6-0 vs Dan Sayles, which is quite remarkable given Sayles’ consistency)
  • No one else has more than 4 wins without also suffering a defeat against that GM
  • Ben Hendy has scored a century in the highest percentage of his matches (28.8%, 23/80 – data excludes 2012, which had 12 teams). Second is Ben Archer (28.1%, 9/32), and third are Max Cubberley and James Goodson (27.5%, 22/80)
  • Dan Smith has been on the receiving end of the most centuries (27.1%, 13/48), Jay Kelly is in second (26.3%, 21/80), while third is split between Ben Archer, Chris Braithwaite, Max Cubberley, Pete Conaghan and Phillip Malcolm (25.0%)
  • 2017 had the lowest scoring average of all seasons of the Chatterbowl to date
    • 2012 – 86.26 – 1 week averaging less than 80 points
    • 2013 – 85.34 – 4 weeks
    • 2014 – 83.13 – 4 weeks
    • 2015 – 84.40 – 2 weeks
    • 2016 – 83.08 – 4 weeks
    • 2017 – 78.85 – 12 weeks
  • The average score put up by Chatterbowl teams in every single week in 2017 was lower than the average score in that week in the combined average for the previous 5 years
    • I realise I have phrased this confusingly – take the average score that every team got in week one of the previous 5 seasons – the average in week one 2017 was less than this. The same goes for week two, week three, etc and so on.
  • The total number of centuries scored in 2017 was 18. This compares to 32 in 2013, 26 in 2014, 25 in 2015 and 28 in 2016.
  • Week 9 of 2017 was the first ever week in which no team registered a century
  • 3 teams failed to register a century in any week of the 2017 season (Chris Braithwaite, David Slater, Jamie Blair)
    • This has happened 3 times before – Phillip Malcolm 2013, Chris Braithwaite 2015, Chris Hill 2015
  • Teams that made the playoffs in 2017 outscored teams who didn’t make the playoffs 85.08 to 72.63, a difference of 12.45
    • The only bigger gap was in 2013 – 17.61 – 94.15 to 76.54
    • The third biggest gap on the list was 8.63 in 2015 (88.71 to 80.09)
  • The top 3 scorers in the 2017 Chatterbowl regular season were separated by 5 points – Mat Ward (1186), Ben Hendy (1185), Neil Hawke (1181). These are the 17th, 18th and 19th top Chatterbowl regular season points totals ever recorded.
    • Chris Braithwaite and David Slater hold all of the top 5 spots in that particular table
  • In the 2017 Chatterbowl Final, 6 of the Andover Anteaters failed to achieve double figures. This is the second time this has occurred (Flutie Flakes – 2013)
  • No player for the Andover Anteaters scored more than 17 points in the Chatterbowl final (Ben Roethlisberger). This is the lowest top-scoring player ever (previous lowest top scoring player, Allen Hurns & Texans DST, 22 points, Brett Favre’s Junk Calls, 2015 final)

Historical Chatterbowl Dominance Report

For the longest time I have been searching for a way to measure relative performance across the entire league, and for season against season. Fantasy football performance can’t be directly compared year one year because the source of the point scoring, the NFL, has so much variance. League trends mean points scoring, both in real life and in fantasy leagues, can vary significantly from one year to the next. One season an average team may score a century every other week, the next season an average team scores one only every 6 weeks. A team in the second of those two seasons may totally dominate the league, but their numbers look very ordinary compared to teams in the first season, so how do you compare them and determine the best?

Finally, I think I have a reliable system to compare teams year on year. Let me explain the maths…

In any given week there are 16 scores produced by the teams in the Chatterbowl. These obviously vary, sometimes hugely. The first step of this methodology is to calculate the standard deviation of this collection of 16 scores. Thanks to Microsoft Excel, this is as simple as using the formula =stdev([range of scores]). This will give you a figure which, typically over the past 6 seasons of the Chatterbowl, comes in somewhere between 15 and 25, but occasionally outside this range. The higher the number, the more variability there is across the 16 scores.

To explain, one standard deviation (what is calculated above), is the range above and below the mean that you would expect 68.2% of all scores within that range to fit into. Two standard deviations is used for a lot of statistical models because it equates to approximately 95% of a range, but we don’t need to do that for our purposes. Instead, we go onto step two…

Step two is to take the score of an individual team, subtract the average score that week from it, and then divide the result by the Standard Deviation calculated in step one, above.

This step essentially calculates how many standard deviations away from the mean the given team’s score was that week. If the standard deviation were exactly 20 and a team scored 20 more than the mean then the score calculated would be 1.00. However, if another team scored 10 below the mean, the score calculated would be -0.50. And so on.

In fact, here’s a real world example. In week 1 of the 2017 season the average score was 74.44, while the standard deviation was 20.97. Chris Hill scored lowest, with 43 points, which is 31.44 below the mean, so gives a score of -1.50, while the top score was by Steve Smith at 117. This is 42.56 above the mean and gives a score of 2.03.

Step three is to do this for every week of the season and then take an average of all the weeks. Finally, take the square root of this average and you have a final score or rating. Now, full disclosure here – I do not now recall the reason for doing this, though I am sure someone more statistically sound than I will be able to tell you where this element of the methodology comes from. Honestly though, there is a proper reason for doing this.

I have done this in three different ways – for the regular season, for the playoffs, and for the entire season as a whole, and have done this for each season the Chatterbowl has been running, since 2012. From this there are some interesting scores that have come out. In total there have been 92 seasons completed so far, and the top ten regular season scores are as follows:

 Rank GM & Year Regular Season Score
1 Chris Braithwaite 2014 1.036
2 Mat Ward 2017 0.827
3 Neil Hawke 2017 0.824
4 David Slater 2013 0.821
5 Chris Braithwaite 2013 0.811
6 Ben Hendy 2017 0.809
7 David Slater 2015 0.795
8 Jamie Blair 2015 0.735
9 Chris Braithwaite 2012 0.716
10 Dan Smith 2013 0.685

Some interesting things here:

  • Chris Braithwaite’s 2014 season was astonishingly consistent – during the regular season he was never below zero in his score. However, he truly shat the bed in the playoffs, scoring -0.73 in the first round.
  • None of these teams won the Chatterbowl
  • Three of the top 6 teams came from 2017 which was by far the worst scoring season so far. The average weekly score in 2017 was 78.85 – the previous worst was 83.08 in 2016 while the highest was 86.26 in 2012 (the single 12 team season, which would be expected to have a higher average points total)

The table below gives you the regular season performance of each Chatterbowl winner:

 Rank GM & Year Regular Season Score
11 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675
18 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.614
31 C – David Slater 2016 0.364
36 C – James Goodson 2017 0.348
38 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.295
49 C – Ben Hendy 2015 -0.191

The playoffs, unsurprisingly, tend to show slightly better performance from the eventual champions and, with them only having to take 3 games into account, are liable to higher scores overall.

 Rank GM & Year Playoffs Score
1 C – Ben Hendy 2015 1.360
2 C – Ben Hendy 2014 1.300
3 Chris Braithwaite 2012 1.215
4 Dan Smith 2013 1.210
5 Max Cubberley 2015 1.171
6 Jay Kelly 2014 1.021
7 C – David Slater 2016 1.012
8 Jay Kelly 2017 0.947
9 Dan Sayles 2013 0.926
10 Mat Ward 2017 0.924

Of those seasons, only Ben Hendy 2015 and Jay Kelly 2014 had regular season performance worse than zero. The full list of champions is below.

 Rank GM & Year Playoffs Score
1 C – Ben Hendy 2015 1.360
2 C – Ben Hendy 2014 1.300
7 C – David Slater 2016 1.012
11 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.923
12 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.920
22 C – James Goodson 2017 0.681

Next, overall performance for the full season – regular and playoff (including the split):

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
1 Chris Braithwaite 2014 1.036 -0.026 0.934
2 Mat Ward 2017 0.827 0.924 0.848
3 David Slater 2013 0.821 0.914 0.839
4 Chris Braithwaite 2012 0.716 1.215 0.832
5 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675 1.300 0.829
6 Neil Hawke 2017 0.824 0.816 0.822
7 Dan Smith 2013 0.685 1.210 0.810
8 David Slater 2015 0.795 0.638 0.768
9 Jamie Blair 2015 0.735 0.709 0.730
10 Chris Braithwaite 2013 0.811 -0.346 0.715

And for the Champions alone:

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
5 C – Ben Hendy 2014 0.675 1.300 0.829
12 C – Max Cubberley 2012 0.614 0.920 0.681
19 C – Ben Hendy 2015 -0.191 1.360 0.563
23 C – David Slater 2016 0.364 1.012 0.548
28 C – Pete Conaghan 2013 0.295 0.923 0.480
33 C – James Goodson 2017 0.348 0.681 0.430

And finally, while I don’t want to dwell on it, I know you’ll all want to know about the 10 worst seasons ever (2013 was not a good year), so without comment, here they are:

Rank GM & Year Regular Playoffs Full
83 Jay Kelly 2016 -0.775 0.118 -0.697
84 Neil Hawke 2015 -0.733 -0.541 -0.701
85 Jay Kelly 2013 -0.684 -0.970 -0.746
86 Chris Hill 2015 -0.801 -0.624 -0.771
87 Max Cubberley 2016 -0.672 -1.184 -0.794
88 Geoffrey Manboob 2013 -0.916 -0.538 -0.858
89 Philip Malcolm 2013 -0.824 -1.033 -0.867
90 Ben Hendy 2013 -0.850 -1.024 -0.885
91 Philip Malcolm 2014 -0.929 -0.959 -0.935
92 Jamie Blair 2017 -0.940 -1.286 -1.014

Oh, and this data is available here:Chatterbowl Database Download

IMPOSTER – 2016 Chatterbowl Preview

Dyna Hard GM Chris Braithwaite is here to provide a preview of the 2016 Chatterbowl on the day after the draft:

All position groups were ranked out of 16 and scored accordingly. The scores for running backs and wide receivers were doubled due to the size of those groups.

Running Outta Shrimp

QB – 10/16 – Brees is generally reliable (6th last year, projected 5th this year), but he’s at the age when a QB starts to decline, and as Manning showed last year, when a QB declines, he really falls off. Therefore I’ve dinged a mark for the lack of a backup plan, even if it may never be used.

RB – 32/32 – This is the first team I’ve looked at, but I suspect it may be the best RB stable in the league. There are risks (Elliot may take time to get the pro game, Martin may not try as hard now he has a big contract, Stewart might get hurt, Jones might lose his starting job, Ajayi probably won’t be a starter unless Foster goes down), but there’s also a chance there might be 5 worthy starters in any given week.

WR – 2/32 – As the RB is strong, WR is weak. Tate has the potential to be a #1 WR, but its likely that at best he is WR1.5 alongside Marvin Jones. White has draft pedigree, but he’s lost a year to injury, has looked bad in preseason and, frankly (in my opinion), wasn’t a great prospect from a production standpoint anyway. Charles Johnson has looked good in preseason, but he did last year too and caught about 4 passes.

TE – 6/16 – Tough call. If Graham is back to 80% of his best, he’s an every week starter at TE. If he’s where he was last season… well, to be honest, he’s still probably an every week starter in a 16 team league. Just not a great one.

K/D – 15/16 – The Seahawks have the potential to start every week and the Patriots produce pretty well when they have easy matchups. Catanzaro is a dreadful kicker (5 missed XPs last year) but he’s on a good offense so should get at least average (if not higher) points just from the opportunities.

Overall – 65/112 (5th) – This is a good team, but somewhat brittle. If we were back in the days of the 2RB league, they’d be a point higher, but needing 2 of those 3 WRs to produce each week is a risk. Trading an RB for a decent WR would be a good move.

Shire City Barons

QB – 16/16 – Cam is about as reliable as a QB can be. He’s shown durability and he runs well. He’s unlikely to be outside the top 4 QBs this year.

RB – 10/32 – Sneakily not bad. The talent level is probably better than the likely production though. Hyde has potential (especially in Chip’s RB friendly offense) to be a top 5 back, but he’s not always been healthily and has a concussion at the mo. A handcuff might be worthwhile here. Yeldon looks like he could be very good, but will be splitting carries with Chris Ivory, which probably caps his output at about 800 yards. Despite Freeman’s season last year, Coleman still has a good chance for a decent volume in Atlanta, but like Yeldon his situation probably limits him to about 800 yards. Vereen has a similar limit, but more due to his skill set than his situation. If one of Yeldon or Coleman breaks out and Hyde stays healthy, this is a good group. In all likelihood, it’ll be kinda average.

WR – 2/32 – Nothing really needs saying about OBJ. Lockett has a hell of a lot of upside, but there aren’t a great deal of targets to go around in Seattle if the running game is working, so he may underperform a little. Or he may break out as the most physically talented receiver in that offense. Snead is fairly mediocre but the high volume offense gives him an outside shot at around 1,000 yards. Fuller seems to have been doing well in preseason, but he’s likely to be a boom or bust option most weeks, which makes him a tough play in fantasy. Boyd seems like he might be quite a reliable producer (but with a lower ceiling). Kearse is Lockett insurance. There’s good talent here, but only one reliable producer, which means one of the three rookies or sophomores will need to produce.

TE – 10/16 – Ertz is a perfectly fine tight end, but he’s unlikely to threaten to step up into the Gronk sort of region.

K/D – 7/16 – Prater has been fairly unreliable in his career, as has the Detroit offence. He could be fine,  but a week-to-week streaming tactic seems likely here, which can be tricky in a 16-teamer. The Jets D is good, potentially very good. They have a division with some tough offenses though, so a backup might be necessary.

Overall – 55/112 (11th) – There’s good talent here, but a lot of it is handicapped by situation or experience. Newton and OBJ should guarantee at least a middle of the pack finish, but at least one RB and one WR will need to breakout for there to be much of a shot at the title.

The Factory of Sadness

QB – 1/16 – Griffin is an interesting gamble. If he starts running again, even if he’s average in reality he should be a good in fantasy. Tannehill is a fairly reliable backup if Griffin flames out, but neither of them is likely to be a top 8 guy.

RB – 2/32 – Duke Johnson is a good player, but he’s unlikely to be a major fantasy factor in a non-PPR league (this is non-PPR, right?). The rest of the RBs (Derrick Henry, Bilal Powell, DeAndre Washington) could all be good, but require an injury to the starter first. Henry might at least be a TD vulture. If he’s not, I suspect this team is starting 1 RB and 4 WRs each week.

WR – 28/32 – Evans is good and will likely improve on his terrible TD output from last season. Baldwin isn’t quite as good and will likely regress from his amazing TD output from last season. Between them, that should even out to about similar to last year’s production. Floyd is in a contract year in a good offense. He might be the most reliable WR in that group too. Diggs has been getting great reviews during camp and seems to be the clear #1 in Minnesota. But #1 in a Shaun Hill run offense isn’t doing much.  Treadwell is good insurance against a Diggs injury, but again, he’s not going to do much in a Hill-run offence.

TE – 16/16 – Gronk.

K/D – 6/16 – Boswell is similar to Catanzaro, in that its not clear if he’s any good, but he’s in a great situation for volume in the Pittsburgh offense. Unless they go for two regularly (I believe they led the league in this last season). The Titans D? That’s a streaming strategy if every I saw one.

Overall – 53/132 (13th) – Good WR and TE situations, but the QB and RB are likely to drag them down.

Brett Favre’s Junk Calls

QB – 6/16 – Everything I said about Drew Brees applies to Carson Palmer, except he has a lower ceiling. If he doesn’t get old or hurt, he’ll be fine. If he does, it’s an ugly situation.

RB – 26/32 – It’s a thin group, but a damn good one. Both Miller and Murray could easily rank in the top 5 RBs this year. Neither has a great injury history, but if both can be healthy its a great pairing. If only one does, it’s still better than some other teams. CJ Prosise is unlikely to be a factor though. I’d rather have a handcuff for either of the top guys.

WR – 26/32 – Dez, if healthy, should be good for a least 1,000 yards, even with Dak under centre. He might well blow up once Romo returns too, which would be good for the likely playoff challenge this team will be mounting. Edelman is very reliable, but might be slow out of the gates while Brady is suspended. Parker was very good at the end of last season, but seems to have slipped to number 3 on the depth chart and has his coach criticising him. As a third WR though, he’s pretty good. Matthews should be a fairly reliable guy, although his ceiling is quite low. He should be good for 5-8 points a week though, which isn’t bad as a backup. Coleman is a wildcard who could be great and could be terrible this year. Lack of competition seems to dictate that he’ll get decent volume. Ginn is likely to be relegated to number 3 this year and isn’t likely to be much of a factor.

TE – 11/16 – Bennett should be a good play most weeks, but he’ll probably be shut out occasionally. Cook has been very good in preseason, but he’s done that many times before. He’s very unreliable, so with the return of Nelson and Cobb being healthy again, he’s likely to be a distant third option at best. A lot of upside though.

K/D – 12/16 – Cairo Santos should be perfectly acceptable. The Panthers D is probably one of the best in the league. Both positions can probably be happily ignored outside of byes.

Overall – 81/132 (1st) – This is a very good team. QB and RB are fragile groups, but if they can stay reasonably healthy this should be a strong contender.

Woah Woah Woah Fitzmagic

QB – 12/16 – Rodgers is an elite option, but doesn’t have quite the upside of the likes of Newton or Wilson. Fitz is a perfectly adequate backup, but not really worth a roster spot unless Rodgers has a very early bye.

RB – 8/32 – McCoy is very good but possibly declining, Jennings is very average but in a decent situation at least for this year. Kenneth Dixon will be a non-factor early on and its a crowded backfield anyway. I feel this group is fairly reliable, but lacks much chance of outperforming expectations.

WR – 4/32 – One of the weaker groups in the league. Decker is probably a good second WR, Fitzgerald is probably a good third WR, but there’s definitely a lack of top WR here. I can tell you that from a year or two of watching him, Kenny Britt is a big sack of crap. Even with little competition, he’s not going to do much.

TE – 7/16 – I guess that you have two likely every week starters, which is good. However, it seems that the plan is to play one as the FLEX starter, which is not good. Witten could hit that old man wall any day now (and is likely in a much lower volume passing attack for the first half of the year).  Fleener has the physical skills, but hasn’t been getting great reviews in training camp. Both could be good. Both could be perfectly mediocre TEs (and bad FLEX options).

K/D – 16/16 – Crosby is a good kicker on an excellent yet conservative offense. Denver’s D is brilliant. Two reliable options who will likely be around the top 5 in the season. Josh Brown should be cut by this team, and by the Giants. For fantasy purposes, he’s not great and there’s no need for a backup kicker to Crosby (again, unless there’s an early GB bye I guess).

Overall – 47/132 (15th) – I’m not a fan of this team. Rodgers is good, but the RBs and WRs are fairly poor, the TEs aren’t great. When the best groups on your team are QB, D and kicker, in reality you’ve got a good team. In fantasy you don’t.

McLovin It

QB – 4/16 – You like that? Not massively. Cousins is a big risk, as he really only has half a season of good performance. Smith is a fairly adequate backup, but if Cousins doesn’t produce, you’re not going to want Smith starting every week.

RB – 16/32 – Freeman did well last season as a receiver, but I’m still far from convinced. Ivory should be good, but the likely splitting of work with Yeldon does limit him a bit. He’ll probably get the goalline work though, which is good. Sproles tends to be good for about 4-6 points a week, which makes him a nice reliable fill in. Morris has little upside outside of a Elliot injury or the Cowboys running an Exotic Smashmouth West offense.

WR – 14/32 – Not an inspiring group, but a pretty reliable one. Marshall and Maclin should fairly easily be top 30 WRs, and Jackson could easily perform to that level too. Aiken produced well last season, but it remains to be seen whether that was a function of there being no one else to pass the ball to in Baltimore.

TE – 13/16 – Greg Olsen is a generally excellent and reliable TE. He’ll finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th without ever having a great week or a bad week. ASJ feels more like trade bait to me. Let him have a decent week 1 and trade him to a TE needy team for another WR.

K/D – 13/16 – Gostkowski is the number 1 kicker. The Chiefs D is good, but is likely to be without its best player all season, which I think will limit its potential a bit. They should still be a perfectly fine every week start.

Overall – 60/112 (7th) – This team feels like more than the sum of its parts. There are bits and pieces that I’m not a great fan of (Cousins particularly), but this feels like a pretty strong and reliable team. It’s unlikely to blow the league away as there is no one who is going to wildly outperform expectations (beyond Morris in the event of Elliot getting hurt on the season’s first snap), but it’s likely to be there or thereabouts by the end.

Dan Sayles’ Bounty Program

QB – 9/16 – Neither Manning or Carr are likely to be elite players, but between them they make a pretty strong platoon. At least one should be close to top 10 points most weeks. Picking the right one will be the challenge.

RB – 14/32 – Lacy looks primed for a bounceback season after spending last season at the buffet line. Gordon looks like he has a chance to breakout too. Of course, both could flame out quite easily. Isaiah Crowell could end up being the main back in Cleveland, but that’s only because I could also end up being the main back in Cleveland. Jordan Howard looks like he’s 4th string at the moment and can probably be relegated to a watch list to pick up again once he starts climbing the depth chart.

WR – 20/32 – Watkins and Brown both have a chance to be top 20 WRs, if not higher. Watkins will need to dominate the Bills’ targets in that low volume offense, Brown will need to emerge as at least a 1b target in that high volume offense. If the Rams continue to be creative in forcing Tavon Austin the ball (and have a QB who can get the ball to him when he gets open deep), he could also force his way into the top 20. Tajae Sharpe has been getting rave reviews in preseason and might well end up being the second most-targeted Titan (behind Delanie Walker). If it all breaks right, that would leave a WR corp with 4 strong starters and Dorial Green-Beckham sitting on the bench watching.

TE – 9/16 – Gates should still be perfectly fine for another year, especially in a 16 team league

K/D – 5/16 – McManus is a good kicker in a good environment, but the offense isn’t likely to be much better than last year. He’s trusted to be allowed to attempt long field goals, so might be as boom and bust as a kicker can be (not very). The Steelers D is not good, but the quality of the offense should force opponents into taking risks and there are enough playmakers there to force some big plays. Streaming seems like the best bet here.

Overall – 57/112 (9th) – Each position group here has a hell of a lot of potential. However, QB is probably the only one which will reliably meet it. If everything breaks right and the RB and WR groups play to their potential this team could run away with the league. If it doesn’t, the league could run away from them.

Ballad of Ju-Halo Jones

QB – 15/16 – Russell Wilson is probably second only to Cam in fantasy QBs. If the running game doesn’t recover from the loss of Lynch, his increase in volume could make him the #1 QB. Even if it doesn’t, he’s very likely to be top 5.

RB – 6/32 – CJ Anderson should be pretty good, and if he isn’t it’ll be because Booker has taken his job. That’s one starting RB right there. Williams should be good for the first three weeks then fairly useless. White should be good for the first 6-8 weeks, then fairly useless. Chris Johnson seems like he’d have more value by being traded to the David Johnson owner. This group could easily get off to a fast start, but I can’t imagine them being great by the end of the season.

WR – 8/32 – Julio is obviously excellent. Sterling Shepard looks to be, at worst, the #3 target in a good offense. Jackson looks likely to a fairly reliable #2 and Stills could also nail down a #2 role. Even if Sammy Coates does nothing, this should be a fairly good group, but its unlikely to be outstanding.

TE – 12/16 – Delanie has become a pretty reliable TE. He should be fine every week.

K/D – 10/16 – The Bengals offense should be good enough, Nugent is good enough. He’ll probably be around #12 for the season. The Rams D is good, but fairly inconsistent. They should reliably get sack numbers, but losing Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod might mean the INTs take a hit.

Overall – 51/112 (14th) – There are good bits and bad bits, and I think they end up coming to around average.

Large Hadron Colliders

QB – 3/16 – Stafford was great at the end of last season, but has been bad in preseason. He feels like the kinda guy who needs to be paired with another reasonable starter, rather than being expected to produce every week.

RB – 22/32 – Forte is a solid every week starter. Sims should continue to chip in with a decent enough amount of receiving yards to be fine as the final FLEX starter. Mathews should be a perfectly average starting RB and could easily end up being a reliable every week starter. Smallwood probably isn’t worth the roster spot as a handcuff though. McKinnon is a decent lottery ticket to have if Peterson goes down.

WR – 30/32 – Robinson, Jeffrey and Landry can all easily be started every week. The only thing stopping this group being a 10 is total lack of depth. Pryor is unlikely to be much of a factor.

TE – 15/16 – Thomas and Clay should both be somewhere between 10th and 20th at TE this season. Thomas is more likely to be a reliable every week starter, but this group should be able to muddle through even if they only produce at the same level as last year.

K/D –11/16 – Gould and the Jags D are perfectly average options.

Overall – 66/112 (=3rd) – This team should be around the playoff picture, but feel unlikely to one of the top teams in the league.

Legion of Gloom

QB – 5/16 – I’m quite bullish on Tyrod Taylor and running QBs generally, so I think he’ll be an above average every week starter. However, he’s still a fairly big risk. Dak could be equally good, but the odds are that you won’t want to play him for the first few weeks until you know what he can deliver, and then by the time we get near the playoffs he’ll be back on the bench after Romo returns.

RB – 18/32 – Peterson is very good and should get a ridiculous amount of work this year with Bridgeeater down. He’s fine to start every week. The other two guys drag the group down, because I’m not sure either can be relied on to be in the FLEX role in any given week. If Rawls goes down Michael should be worth a start. Blount is unlikely to be a safe option to rely on in any week.

WR – 10/32 – Cooper should be a pretty reliable starter. I’m not a massive fan of the rest of the group, but they all have a chance to be equally reliable starters. Moncrief hasn’t produced much thus far, Dorsett has produced even less, and Agholor is somewhere in between. None are proven starters that you want to rely on yet (although all could become that). Sanders has been a proven starter, but its tough to project his likely production with Siemian at QB. I suspect he’s going to finish as this lot’s second best WR though. It should be possible to get a good group, but I think, when you also factor in Blount’s TD dependency, there may be a lot of PLOBing.

TE – 15/16 – Kelce is excellent and Rudolph is a reliable backup option with some upside. This is about as good a group as you can have without having Gronk.

K/D – 11/16 – Both Bailey and the Vikings D are good players in fairly bad situations. The Vikings D should do ok on points allowed simply because all the running on offense is going to keep scores down. But offenses probably won’t want to take too many risks against them, which might hurt their chances at big plays. Bailey is a good kicker who is likely to spend the first half of the year struggling for opportunity.

Overall – 59/112 (8th) – I like most of the team, but the WR2 and FLEX situation make it difficult to project success. There are 5 guys who need to produce to cover those 3 positions, and I’m not convinced that’s likely.

Sou’Westkuntry Pasty Pounders

QB – 14/16 – Rivers and Brady seems like a brilliant pairing. After week 4, they’ll be able to platoon the two against the best matchup.

RB – 4/32 – Ingram has been good the last couple of years, but I still don’t trust him all that much. He should be fine though. Woodhead and Riddick would be great options if this was PPR, but outside that they are only borderline FLEX options at best. Starks has very little value unless Lacy goes down.

WR – 22/32 – Brown will be top 10, Hilton should be top 20 and Crabtree should be top 30. That’s a very good trio. Unfortunately they are knocked down a bit by that being it. Cutting Bruce Ellington and grabbing any other WR is a must.

TE – 1/16 – Walford could be good, but I wouldn’t want to be relying on him as my only option right out of the gate.

K/D – 4/16 – Both Gano and Walsh are very good options. Walsh is a better player, Gano is in a better situation (depending on how much Carolina goes for two). Having two kickers is kind of a waste though and I think they’d be better cutting or trading one for extra WR or TE help though. The Colts D is pretty much bang average. Streaming beckons.

Overall – 45/112 (16th) – The WR trio and the QB duo might carry this team to respectability, but I don’t there’s enough here to carry them any further than that.

Hundley Like The Wolf

QB – 8/16 – Bortles is a good option. Even if he regresses a bit from last year, he should be a nice solid starter.

RB – 24/32 – I actually really like this group. Its looking like Langford is going to get a shot at an every down role in Chicago and Foster looks like the lead back in Miami. Either one of those should be a reasonable FLEX play for most of the season. Once Bell comes back from suspension, that should be a really strong group.

WR – 24/32 – Again, this is a strong group. Cooks and Benjamin should be perfectly reliable for every week of the season. Wheaton has a good role, although may be lacking in talent. He did have an excellent second half of last season. It seems likely that one of the young trio of Doctson, Thomas and Crowder should be able to emerge as at least a half-decent option if Wheaton isn’t up to it.

TE – 2/16 – Jordan Cameron has been dreadful in Miami and is barely worth a roster spot at the moment. Ebron has yet to live up to his draft status, but there are lots of targets to go around in Detroit now that Calvin Johnson is gone. He should be able to be at least a top 12 TE, which would just about justify starting him every week.

K/D – 8/16 – I’m not sure if the Texans D is actually going to be that good, but they will probably make a lot of big plays which should make them a perfectly serviceable option every week. Matt Bryant is a below average kicker but if Atlanta’s offense plays the whole season like it did the first few weeks of last season, he’s in a very good situation. If not, streaming will have to do.

Overall – 66/112 (=3rd) – There’s a strong core of QB, RB and WR here. If one or two of the younger players can fulfil their potential, this could be a really good team. I suspect its more likely that they end up getting knocked out in the playoffs.

Spunky Beans

QB – 2/16 – Going with just Winston is bold. My feeling on him is similar to Cousins – he’s shown he can be good for a period, but I’m not convinced he can be worth an every week start just yet. He seems like an ideal candidate for platooning with another veteran, rather than relying on him every week.

RB – 30/32 – This is an outstanding trio. Like Adrian Peterson, Gurley is going to get a tonne of work this season. At his very worst, Jamaal Charles will be a much better version of Darren Sproles. At his best, he’s a second feature back. Frank Gore should be perfectly reliable, but he is very old as RBs go, so he may fall off a cliff this year. No sign of that happening yet.

WR – 6/32– There are far more questions at WR. Both Matthews and Smith have talent, but its unclear how much production they will actually have. Matthews’ floor is probably as a mediocre FLEX play. Smith’s floor is absolutely zero. Travis Benjamin and Mike Wallace have similar profiles to Smith, although with a bit less upside. Sanu could be a fairly reliable FLEX play, although he has historically been quite TD dependent. Boldin is a big question mark. I can’t imagine him doing too much this year, but then I’ve thought that for about the past 4 years.

TE – 14/16 – Jordan Reed is an elite TE with some questions about his ability to stay healthy. Dwayne Allen is a good TE with some questions about his ability to stay healthy. If one went down, the other should be fine to play every week. There’s even potential to play both if Allen can rediscover his early career form.

K/D – 2/16 – The rarely seen Buffalo Buffalo. Carpenter is a fine kicker on a fine offense. He should be perfectly acceptable in a 16 team league, although not a whole deal better than streaming. The Bills D is a big unknown. If it plays to its potential, its elite. If it plays to last year, its crap.

Andover Anteaters

QB 13/16 – Luck is worth a 9/10 on his own. Ryan isn’t in his league, but if he can rediscover his past form, this could be an elite pair to play the matchups. Or just plug Luck in most weeks.

RB – 12/32 – Hill should be ok to start every week, although its likely that Gio Bernard will outscore him. Ware looks likely to get, at minimum, the goalline work in KC along with 5-10 carries a week, so he could be a viable flex play, especially if KC has a decent matchup. West might end up being the Ravens leading back, but he might also end up getting 0 carries. Regardless, Hill and West are a strong pair.

WR – 32/32 – This is a strong group. Green and Allen are clear #1 WRs. Jones has a chance at being similar, and should threaten 1,000 yards anyway. Funchess has been getting excellent reviews in the offseason and should have more production in his second year with an actual other WR on the field with him. Gordon could end up doing nothing, but if he hits the field and doesn’t get suspended again, he also has the potential to be a #1 calibre WR. They might not be able to get everyone on the field, but there may be trade potential here too.

TE – 3/16 – A fairly uninspiring group. Both Miller and Green are perfectly average players who are clear starting TEs, but I’m not sure how much upside there is. I feel that this will be a very TD dependent group, with lots of PLOBing.

K/D – 14/16 – Tucker is excellent and should get more opportunities with Flacco healthy again. It’s still not a great offense though. The Cardinals D is just a monster, but they’ve got a fairly tough schedule which might limit them slightly.

Overall – 74/112 (2nd) – A very strong team. The only weakness is TE and RB depth and frankly, if you’re going to have a weakness that’s a good one to have.

Coach Taylor’s Khakis

QB – 11/16 – Roethlisberger is a solid top-10 option apart from the game or two he misses due to injury. Mariota should be fine to fill in for that game. If he develops his running, this could be a great pairing.

RB – 20/32 – Rawls showed a lot of ability last year, but might end up in a job share if he doesn’t show that he can stay healthy. He has a lot of upside, but a lot of risk too. Murray should be one of the most used RBs, but he’s pretty average. Still, that’s a good enough combination to be a solid FLEX play. Abdullah flashed some good skills last year, but I’m not sure what role he has on the offense. Riddick has shown he is an excellent receiver and Abdullah doesn’t really profile as a high volume runner. He might end up just doing a lot of not very much. Javorius Allen looks like Baltimore’s 3rd RB and probably doesn’t have much value.

WR – 16/32 – Hopkins is elite and will see a tonne of targets. Nelson should also see a lot of work, but he’s quite old and coming off an injury, so there’s a bit of risk there. Still, both should be solidly top 30. Steve Smith is similar to Nelson but with far less upside. Chris Hogan is a good pickup, especially with Amendola not being healthy, and should be a borderline flex play. Strong is probably Houston’s 4th WR, so doesn’t have much value.

TE – 4/16 – Eifert is very good, but he’s going to miss the first 2/3 games at best and hasn’t showed the ability to stay healthy after that. The total lack of backup is alarming.

K/D – 9/16 – The Raiders D should be perfectly fine and the offenses in the division are fairly poor, which helps. Vinatieri’s range seems to decrease by the minute, but he should be fairly reliable.

Overall – 63/112 (6th) – This looks like another team that should make the playoffs but may struggle to produce once it gets there.

Kuhn on the Cobb

QB – 7/16 – Dalton has a fairly well established floor of being a perfectly acceptable QB and should be fine to start every week. Osweiler doesn’t strike me as a particularly appealing platoon buddy though.

RB – 28/32 – Johnson should be a feature back, Gio Bernard should get a good amount of work between rushing and receiving and Justin Forsett looks like he’s going to be the starter in Baltimore. That should translate to at least one good starter and one good FLEX every week. Kenyan Drake looks like he’s worthless this year. Reggie Bush has more value in a PPR and return yards league, but he might ok, especially if McCoy goes down.

WR – 16/32 – Thomas is a risk with a new QB, but he should be able to struggle his way to around 1,000 yards regardless. Cobb should see fewer targets but be more productive this year. Hurns will probably fall off a bit from last year, but he should still be a pretty strong FLEX play most weeks. Garcon is aging very quickly and might lose targets to Doctson and Crowder as the season goes on, but should still be borderline playable most weeks.

TE – 4/16 – Barnidge was excellent last season, but its really hard to see him repeating that with an improved WR corps. If he falls back to anywhere near his career average production (i.e. nothing) tight end will be a big black hole.

K/D – 1/16 – Aguayo should be absolutely fine. The Packers are fairly average. Streaming for both is probably the plan.

Overall – 56/112 (10th) – Great RBs, but the rest of the team is pretty much average or worse. If Barnidge recaptures last year’s form they could outperform this though.

 

Commish Addition

I tabled up the figures in the above piece. Some of the maths was a bit dodgy. This is the actual ranking…

Rank Team QB RB WR TE K/D Overall
=1 Brett Favre’s Junk Calls 6 26 26 11 12 81
=1 Large Hadron Colliders 3 22 30 15 11 81
3 Andover Anteaters 13 12 32 3 14 74
4 Hundley Like The Wolf 8 24 24 2 8 66
5 Running Outta Shrimp 10 32 2 6 15 65
=6 Coach Taylor’s Khakis 11 20 16 4 9 60
=6 McLovin It 4 16 14 13 13 60
8 Legion of Gloom 5 18 10 15 11 59
9 Dan Sayles’ Bounty Program 9 14 20 9 5 57
10 Kuhn on the Cobb 7 28 16 4 1 56
11 Spunky Beans 2 30 6 14 2 54
12 The Factory of Sadness 1 2 28 16 6 53
13 Ballad of Ju-Halo Jones 15 6 8 12 10 51
14 Woah Woah Woah Fitzmagic 12 8 4 7 16 47
=15 Shire City Barons 16 10 2 10 7 45
=15 Sou’Westkuntry Pasty Pounders 14 4 22 1 4 45

Chatterbowl Champ Rates DynaBowl Runners & Riders

Last year’s Supreme Chatterbowl Champion, and cruel snub in the Coach of the Year voting, Pete Conaghan steps forward to rate the 2014 rosters of the Dynabowl hopefuls after the inaugural auction… Without further ado, and in reverse order, we present the pre-season power rankings…

East Flanders Flahutes

Can a team have too many Tight Ends? Not if you are Norv Turner or the Flahutes, who have five current starters in that roster spot. While the Flahutes are strong (but not deep) at QB and RB, with Drew Brees expecting to play until he is 45, and have a solid but unspectacular receiving corps, it will be defense that lets them down, with a mixture of the aged and infirm putting them bottom of the big-play index. It is disturbing that after two weeks of intensive roster building, the Flahutes still only have 44 players.

One to watch: Kyle Rudolph, fresh off a new deal, could star in Minnesota’s new Air-Norvan offense.

Ranking: 10th

DynaForOne Firebirds

Like the car that shares their name, the Firebirds are all muscle up front, but does that mask a worrying fragility? Beast Mode provides the bulk , while Chris Johnson provides the indecision. The WRs are a fragile bunch, while Rivers and Russell Wilson are indestructible at QB. The Tight Ends include Finley, Gates and Gronkowski, but also Garrett Graham who can step in if all the others are injured at once. The Firebirds may not have enough firepower at RB.

Defense leans heavily on grizzled veterans Julius Peppers and Justin Tuck – can they reach the sack heights of previous years? Suh and Atkins provide the interior muscle, while the linebackers will rely strongly on tackle numbers. The team as a whole has a lot of questions to answer.

One to watch: Chris Johnson joins the circus. Look out, it will be entertaining.

Ranking: 9th

The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

If I had to describe the Dynasty of Sadness in one word it would be: middle of the road. An unspectacular collection of established players on offense is backed up by a solid defensive unit. A group of dirt-dogs rather than stars, the Dynasty has put its faith in the gradual accumulation of points rather than Hollywood play, and has married this to the expectation of breakout performances by the likes of Montee Ball and Ladarius Green.  Cam ‘Hello Kitty’ Newton stands out on offense, ably backed up by the small-handed Minnesota QB, while Eric Berry and Lavonte David are the stars of the defense. A dark horse.

One to watch: Adam Vinateri provides some much-needed youth on offense. Will he be a star?

Ranking: 8th

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Kelkowski also have the dubious honour of five starting Tight Ends, and have two of the marquee players in Thomas and Jordan. This is counteracted by having two QBs who have faced questions as to their  heart, commitment, and accuracy under pressure. While the Firebirds have Rivers and Wilson, Kelkowski have Romo and Kaepernick. While there is only one winner there, their meeting in week 4 should be interesting.

Kelkowski will be hoping for a big year from Arian Foster, but he is ably backed up by DeMarco Murray and Zac Stacy. The WR group looks fragile, though Megatron makes up for many ills.

An aging defensive line looks misleadingly lightweight in terms of points, due to several major injuries last year. While Fairley was a beast, Knighton underperformed last year compared to his on-field value, and the team will be hoping Demarcus Ware has a new lease of life across from Von Miller. If Dansby can maintain his form with Cleveland, and Cushing comes back strong, then this group is well backed up by a strong secondary.

One to watch: Cordarelle Patterson will thrive, if they can get him the ball.

Ranking: 7th

Tamworth Two

If Tamworth like running backs so much, why don’t they just marry them? A wide mix of player types mean the Hogs can pick and choose their strategy on any given week. More of a concern though, is whether Carson Palmer can stay upright with the level of pass rush he will face this season. Tamworth need another QB to provide depth at that position.  Much is expected of an underperforming  WR group, though the twin towers of Jeffrey and Jackson will alleviate concern there.

Defense is a strength for Tamworth, with a mixture of sacks and tackles being the order of the day.

One to watch: Eric Ebron should dislodge Ole Stone Hands Brandon Pettigrew in short order in Detroit.

Ranking: 6th

Dynablaster Bombermen

Literally anchored by Mark Ingram at RB, the Bombermen will hope for great things from the SF duo of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, now that Kendall Hunter is out for the season.  Giovanni and Ellington provide the spark for what is a great group of RBs. QBs and WRs are likewise young and exciting, with Johnny Football providing the glamour and a sprinkle of pixie dust.

Cooks, Floyd, Green and Williams lend the WR corps their explosiveness, which will be needed with the defense big on star power, but pretty pedestrian points-wise. The Williamses – the Buffalo Williamses – are the best bet for boosting the big-play index here.

The team is a pleasing blend of youngsters and vets, and should compete for the foreseeable future.

One to watch: Will Cooks make an impact for the Saints straight away?

Ranking: 5th

Champions of the Sun

The Champions have an interesting selection dilemma each week, neatly represented by their split personality QB corps. Should they go for gunslinger Jay Cutler, or mild-mannered accountant Alex Smith? Should they go for plodding Bell and Jones-Drew, or dual threat Spiller and Tate? Will they go with the big-play potential of Maclin and Jackson, or the red-zone chops of ‘fading’ stars Nicks and White? A nicely balanced group makes selection on offense difficult.

Defense is bolstered by the spectacular Robert Quinn, who is targeting 20 sacks this year, and is well backed up by a group of excellent, if mostly injured linebackers. Tackle numbers should be high with this group.

One to watch: Can Khalil Mack be a pass rush threat, or will he have his hands full against a rush-heavy schedule?

Ranking: 4th

Dyna Hard

Dyna Hard are well stocked at running back, with marquee names Charles and Morris leading the charge, but a dependency on Matthew Stafford could be worrying if he was to get hurt. At least he should have three quality receivers to throw to this year, allaying concerns about his decision making. The jury is still out on backup Sam Bradford, who may only see time on the bye week and in case of emergency.

Antonio Brown is the star among a motley WR crew. Tavon Austin and Julian Edelman need to produce, but Dynahard may be hoping for an immediate impact from Buffalo’s Sammy Watkins.

Greg Hardy’s upcoming hearing with the NFL will be of concern on D, but JJ Watt and Osi U should be able to fill in adequately. Miller, Clowney, Worrilds and Ogletree should be a source of sacks galore, making this front seven a potential difference-maker on any given week.

One to watch: Can you say YAC? Manuel to Watkins is one to watch.

Ranking: 3rd

Dynasore Losers

Drafting established stars seems to have been the MO for the Losers, with solid depth all through the team. Win Now is the mantra on Offense: there are a lot of miles on the RB and QB clocks, and that group may need to be totally rebuilt in the coming years. A lot will be expected of Emmanuel Sanders in Denver, and the difficulty again may be selecting the right starters among the WRs.

The opposite seems true of the defense, which has a nice mix of rookies and second- and third-year studs on the defensive line. Tamba Hali and Ryan Kerrigan provide the pass rush to complement Wilkerson and Dunlap.

One to watch: Will Derek Carr be the future of this team? Tune into Oakland games round about week 6 to find out.

Ranking: 2nd

Here Come the Brees

Balance. That’s the watchword of Here Come the Brees, who have assembled a team that pleases on most fronts. Youth and experience at QB is backed up by a (potentially) high quality stable of running backs. Likewise the WRs are a mixture of possession guys and big-time burners, with a lot of potential for big plays.

Defense consists of a collection of sack machines, who will ensure competitiveness on the defensive side of the ball. The toughest decision on both offense and defense could be who to play on any given week.

One to watch: Will Ray Rice be a distraction to the team? Can he rediscover his form of two years ago?

Ranking: 1st