Replacement Level: Week 7

After my second resounding Manboob victory of the season, Geoffrey has seen fit to leave me the replacements. So let’s start by “thanking” him with a review of how he did do and could have done:

		Proj	Actual	FA Rank	Best	Best Points
QB	Stanton	4.28	0	7=	Mike Glennon, TB	18.56
RB	Rodgers	5.15	0.9	18	Fozzy Whittaker, CAR	11.6
RB	Ogbannaya	3.5	0	28=	Roy Helu, WAS	6.6
RB	Robinson	2.825	3.6	7
WR	Johnson, S	2.9	5.3	15	Andre Holmes, OAK	24.1
WR	Wright	3.9	3.8	18	Robert Woods, BUF	15.8
WR	Ginn Jr	2.2	2.375	25	Brandon Lloyd, SFO	14
WR	LaFell	4.6	21.7	2*	Chris Hogan, BUF	13.2
TE	Carlson	4.4	1.4	14	James Casey, PHI	8.6
TE					Lance Kendricks, STL	8.2
PK	Cantazaro	6.4	10.45	1*	Mike Nugent, CIN	9.7
PN	Ryan	0	5.675	10	Steve Weatherford, NYG	12.425
DE	Ngata	2	1.25	25=	Vinny Curry, PHI	15
DE	Gholston	1	4.5	10	George Johnson, DET	13.75
DT	Guion	0.5	3	13=	Evander Hood, JAC	13
LB	Robinson	2.5	5	20*	Tahir Whitehead, DET	26.95
LB	Sheard	0	1	54=	Dan Skuta, SFO	23.5
LB	Durant	1.5	4	26=	Justin Tuggle, HOU	16.05
LB	Graham	1	19	3*	Alex Okafor, ARI	16
S	Ishmael	4	3	14=	Rashad Johnson, ARI	38.8
S	Jefferson	5.65	1	26=	Dontae Johnson, SFO	20
CB	Cox	0	6.25	12*	Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN	22.65
CB	Arrington	1.5	1.25	43*	Buster Skrine, CLE	19.5
		59.805	104.45			367.985

 

 

Much like Bill Belichick Mangboob is a coach / GM, and much like Bill he spends a lot of time being grumpy in hoodies. This is not where the similarity ends, as both Bill and Manboob show a knack for coaching the shit out of his players, getting far more than the traditional 110% out of his players with an impressive 175% improvement. Unfortunately, also like Bill, Manboob is a terrible GM specialising in identifying players who have an awful lot of shit to be coached out, and the 104 he scored, while impressive against the predictions, was a long way short of the near 370 possible.

Overall Manboob finds himself coaching the Replacements to their second lowest score, and didn’t manage to beat a single proper team, leaving Pete’s week one effort still the best the Replacements have managed, and the only time the replacements have beaten a DynaBowl franchise.

		Proj	Actual	CtSOoT* Score	Teams beaten
Week 1	Pete Conaghan	89.385	150.74	1.69	3
Week 2	Move along nothing to see here
Week 3	Ben Hendy	89.795	126.64	1.41	0
Week 4	James Goodson	52.4	97	1.85	0
Week 5	Iran Kulkowski	79.2	144.535	1.82	0
Week 6	Geoffrey Manboob	59.805	104.45	1.75	0
Week 7	David Slater	72.025

Anyway, enough trashing Manboob (power-ranked 10^th out of 10 right now), it’s time to introduce Week 7’s replacements.*Coaching the Shit Out of Them

Ladies and gentlemen (well, just gentlemen) please could we have a tepid and disinterested round of applause for your offence!

Starting Quarterback – Charlie Whitehurst (Ten): Ranked 4^th – Projected 9 points

This really comes down to a choice between 4 potential starters – Orton, Fitzpatrick, Genome Smith and Whitehurst.

Fitz may look like he’s eating a squirrel through his helmet grill, but he’s likely to be a liability against a Pittsburgh defence who have held opposing QBs to very low scores (joint 4th best in fantasy against QBs), and sadly doesn’t score any points for his squirrel-munching antics.

Orton is up against an even more effective Minnesota defence – 4th best in fantasy against QBs despite facing Matts Ryan and Stafford, Tom Fucking Brady, Adam Rodgers and Brees in 5 of their 6 weeks.

Genome, is facing the Patriots – better than both Pittsburgh and Minnesota in terms of destroying a QB’s fantasy totals – and he is a truly fucking terrible QB.

This leaves Whitehurst, who is playing Washington’s incredibly forgiving defence, a defence so bad it made King Cunt Nick Foles looks good. Also Charlie has magnificent hair. The only real risk is that Jake Locker is fit enough to play Sunday, but even if he is, it’s likely Whitehurst gets 2 quarters and he could still outscore the others in that time.

Starting Running Backs –

Roy Helu (Was): Ranked 1^st – Projected 5.6pts

Jonathan Stewart (Car): Ranked 2^nd – Projected 5.5pts

To say the running back options are thin would be an understatement. They’re anorexic, a graveyard of terrible selections.

Helu, who sees regular change of pace work in the Washington backfield is a steady option, and with a TD could put up a decent score.

The chaos in Carolina’s backfield means that the fit again Stewart (last week’s running back of the week in Carolina, Fozzy Whittaker, is questionable as is the week before’s Darrin Reaves) is likely to start and see the majority of carries when Cam doesn’t decide to do it all himself.

Starting Wide Receivers –

Andre Holmes (Oak): Ranked 3^rd – Projected 5.4pts

Brandon Lloyd (SF): Ranked 27^th – Projected 2.2pts

Jerricho Cotchery (Car): Ranked 4^th – Projected 5.3pts

Robert Woods (Buf): Ranked 6^th – Projected 4.525pts

Holmes is a no-brainer, and I’d be surprised if he were available for next week’s Replacement Level as he’s put up 13.4 and 24.1 points in the two games either side of the Raiders bye week with Carr starting to find his feet. Oakland has a good matchup this week, with Arizona having the most generous passing defence involved in this weekend’s games (31st in points to wide-receivers).

Lloyd has shown flashes of his old self, and knows Denver well, having been the NFL’s leading receiver in his time as a Bronco. A deep threat might prove necessary against a Denver defence which has been one of the best against opposing receivers.

Cotchery has been consistently average for Carolina so far, but with Benjamin suffering a mild concussion should see a greater workload this weekend. The Packers pass defence has been pretty good; holding opposing wideouts to less than the fantasy average, however this is as much a product of playing some average offences as anything else, and Miami lit them up for 156 receiving yards and 2 tds last week. Carolina is far from a dominant passing defence, but Green Bay has regularly demonstrated their difficulties handling a talented mobile QB and Cotchery could be the beneficiary.

Woods has emerged as a decent target for Orton and has seen a lot more looks in the passing game in recent weeks, unfortunately for the Bills, they’ve played a run of excellent defences over that period and that continues this week against the Vikes. 10 to 12 targets is a realistic number for Woods, and if he catches 7, he could find himself on the end of an 80 yard day, which would be good enough for my 4^th choice.

Starting Tight Ends –

Jermaine Gresham (Cin): Ranked 2^nd – Projected 4.5pts

Ben Watson (NOS): Ranked 13^th – Projected 1.9pts

Ah, Jermaine Gresham… Sabotaging fantasy teams with his promise and and lack of production for about 5 years now. With the Bengals struggling for bodies who can catch passes Gresham had his best week of the year – in fact a better week than the whole year put together. Another 60+ yard outing beckons against Indy who’ve been generous to TEs so far this year.

With Jimmy Graham out, Watson is the usual number 2 tight end and should see a nice little uptick in his production. As a Jimmy Graham owner, I can testify first hand to how Drew Brees appears to have forgotten his Tight End exists so far this year, but at a thin position Watson has upside. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Kicker –

Caleb Sturgis (Mia): Ranked joint 4^th – Projected 6.4pts

A veritable treasure trove of riches at Kicker compared with the other offensive positions. Gould would be a fine choice, but Sturgis should get lots of opportunities to kick against a fairly poor Chicago defence, and has only missed once this year – from 48 yards.

Starting Punter –

Steve Weatherford (NYG): Ranked N/A – Projected 0pts

Not projecting points for punters is a major oversight by MFL. Weatherford is the second best punter so far amongst free agents, and he was the best in the league last year. His leg may be sore after last weekend, but he, unlike the rest of the Giants’ offence, could at least reflect on a job well done against Philly.

 

On to the defence… As a general rule, projected scores for defensive players are a joke. We’re dealing with big play scoring, and the league doesn’t seem to project big play scores, as such the projections are essentially useless as a guide here.

Starting Defensive Ends –

Haloti Ngata (Oak): Ranked 1^st – Projected 2pts

George Johnson (Det): Ranked joint 38^th – Projected 0pts

Ngata is a steady presence, with the potential for a big game, and his ability to make plays on passing downs matches up well against their pass happy offence.

Johnson is in good form, with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss in his last two games. Dallas abused New Orleans’ offense, and Detroit bring a much better defensive unit to the game. Johnson can ride his hot-streak to make Drew Brees life slightly more miserable. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Defensive Tackle –

Sammy Lee Hill (Ten): Ranked joint 25^th – Projected 0pts

Tennessee have a good defence, tough, but not that special – that’s why their players litter the DynaBowl free agency pool. They also have the Washington Redskins in town, so expect to see a lot of them on my team this week.

Starting Linebackers –

Kamerion Wimbley (Ten): Ranked joint 31^st – Projected 1pt

Pernell McPhee (Bal): Ranked joint 63^rd – Projected 0pts

Eric Walden (Ind): Ranked joint 31^st – Projected 1pt

Jabaal Sheard (Cle): Ranked joint 63^rd – Projected 0pts

These are mostly match-up based. Tennessee and Washington, Baltimore and Atlanta (who are terrible on the road) and Cleveland and Jacksonville should provide plenty of opportunities for these guys to make plays. Indy play the Bengals, who’ve shown one of the better lines in the early stages of the season, but this is a trend thing. The Bengals line seems to be getting worse, and the Indy defence seems to be finding its feet. Walden has three sacks on the year and five tackles for a loss, I like him to have a good game.

Starting Safeties –

Michael Griffin (Ten): Ranked 2^nd – Projected 5pts

Roman Harper (Car): Ranked 9^th – Projected 3pts

Griffin is actually projected worse than his Tennessee safety colleague (15 points!), but has consistently out-performed him this year so far. Backing Kirk Cousins to throw stupid interceptions is basically playing with house money.

I was tempted to double down on Tennessee, but while Harper might be old, but he’s still pretty good in the passing game. The scoring we use doesn’t worry about players getting lit up, or defences who can’t stop their opponents – Green Bay figure to see a fair amount of the ball against Carolina, and Rodgers will make plays all day long, meaning at worst Harper should provide a reasonable return in tackles, defended passes and the like, with the potential for a big play along the way.

Starting Cornerbacks –

Adam Jones (Cin): Ranked 1^st – Projected 5.2pts

Blidi Wreh-Wilson (Ten): Ranked joint 2^nd – Projected 4pts

Jones plays in a good Cincy secondary who should get the chance to make plays against pass-happy Andy Luck, who rarely lets a game pass without one interception at least. Jones was also used as a returner last week, and that little point bump can only help.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson possesses an excellent name. He had a huge game against the Jags, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll repeat that, Tennessee are playing the Redskins, and it could be jackpot time for anyone in that secondary. I’m also loathe to pick two players from the same club at corner or safety, else Newman would have been a good play here.

And so, without further ado, your full week 7 replacements (and the projected best replacements teams)

		Proj	Rank among FA	Best	Best Points
QB	Charlie Whitehurst, TEN	9	4	Kyle Orton, BUF	12.06
RB	Roy Helu, WAS	5.6	1	Roy Helu, WAS	5.6
RB	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	5.5	2	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	5.5
WR	Andre Holmes, OAK	5.4	3	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	6.2
WR	Brandon Lloyd, SFO	2.2	27	Jarius Wright, MIN	6.1
WR	Jerricho Cotchery, CAR	5.3	4	Andre Holmes, OAK	5.4
WR	Robert Woods, BUF	4.525	6	Jerricho Cotchery, CAR	5.3
TE	Jermaine Gresham, CIN	4.5	2	Lance Kendricks, STL	9
TE	Ben Watson, NOS	1.9	13	Jermaine Gresham, CIN	4.5
PK	Caleb Sturgis, MIA	6.4	4=	Robbie Gould, CHI	7.4
PN	Steve Weatherford, NYG	0	N/A	N/A	0
DE	Haloti Ngata, BAL	2	1	Haloti Ngata, BAL	2
DE	George Johson, DET	0	38=	Osi Umenyiora, ATL	1
DT	Ian Williams, SFO	0.5	7=	Damon Harrison, NYJ	1
DT	Sammie Lee Hill, TEN	0	25=	Vince Wilfork, NEP	1
LB	Kamerion Wimbley, TEN	1	31=	Jacquian Williams, NYG	3
LB	Pernell McPhee, BAL	0	63=	Jon Beason, NYG	2.5
LB	Eric Walden, IND	1	31=	Philip Wheeler, MIA	2.5
LB	Jabaal Sheard, CLE	0	63=	Tahir Whitehead, DET	2.5
S	Michael Griffin, TEN	5	2	George Wilson, TEN	15
S	Roman Harper, CAR	3	9	Michael Griffin, TEN	5
CB	Adam Jones, CIN	5.2	1	Adam Jones, CIN	5.2
CB	Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN	4	2=	Terence Newman, CIN	4
		72.025			111.76

 

I’d nominate manboob, for nominating me, but that seems like a vicious circle, and he’s already had his chance and blown it. So for next week I’d like to nominate manager of the Firebeards, Neil to see if he can’t beat his actual team’s score for the week.