MAX’S STAT BLATS! Weeks 1-4

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Like a bad 80s pop group the Stat Blats just keep coming back, regardless of whether they’re merely a shadow of their former selves.  This week I take a look at how the 10 Dynabowl teams have started out the season and which units are propping their teams up and which deserve to be put gently to sleep.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks, Receivers

Spearheaded by new draft pick Leonard Fournette and suprisingly-currently-healthy Carlos Hyde the Dungeoneers have the third highest average scoring running back unit in the Dynabowl at the moment.  Both of the aforementioned chuggers are in the top 10 at the position through 4 weeks but Pete Conaghan will be hoping that nothing happens to either of them as the likes of Terrance West and Chris Ivory don’t offer much backup.  As the season develops his reserve strength may improve if Alex Collins and Samaje Perine can make inroads into the starting jobs on their teams but if not those bye weeks are going to hit the Dungeoneers hard at this position.

Another area of strength for the Dungeoneers is their secondary as, again, they are third highest scorers at the position.  Given that the team only has 1 CB (Chris Harris) in the top 50 scorers at the position it will not surprise you to learn that most of this success has come from the tandem safety pairing of Karl Joseph (Oakland) and Kevin Byard (Tennessee) with Ha-Ha Clinton Dix providing able cover for injuries and bye weeks.  Really Pete should be looking to draft in another cornerback or two as with some improvement at this position he could have the best secondary in the Dbowl.

On the frowny-face side, we have the fact that the Flanders Quarterbacks are the lowest scoring unit, on average, in the league garnering a measly 13.32 points per game, nearly 4 points below the average.  Given that both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson are in the top 10 at the position however this really has to come down to head coaching decision as Pete put his faith in Cam Newton for the first two weeks, missing Wentz’ big games, and then went to Wentz for weeks 3 and 4, missing Newton and Watson’s big games.  This is a selection headache that Pete Conaghan will have every week going forward but the law of averages says he’s going to start guessing right at some point and that score should creep up.

Really, it’s no wonder that the Dungeoneers’ QBs are struggling with this shower to throw to though.  With only three WRs in the top 60 at the position (and one of those has been riding the pine) the Dungeoneers are the second worst team at this position a whopping 9 points below the average.  Amari Cooper has to answer for some of these problems as the much-vaunted Raiders’ receiver isn’t even in the top 60 wide receivers after four weeks.  With second year pro Josh Doctson failing to spark early on a lot is riding on the shoulders of Keenan Allen and Davante Adams and I’m sad to say that I can’t see this unit improving much in the coming weeks.

Offence Average: 94.24 points (7th)
Defence Average: 78.53 points (4th)
Overall Average: 172.76 points (7th)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Peter)

 

Here Comes The Brees

Forging Ahead: Defensive Line, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Receivers, Linebackers

The Brees’ production line of defensive tackle talent continues apace.  Unperturbed by the departure of Aaron Donald, Ben Archer has continued to dominate at the position with the only thing stopping him having the top two scoring tackles being an injury to Fletcher Cox that has limited his scoring to only 5th at the position.  The tandem of Cox and DeForest Buckner will, injury permitting, continue to rack up points for the rest of the year.  The DE position is the poor country cousin in this unit by comparison but Cameron Jordan is steady as ever, putting up DE1 numbers through 4 weeks, and Michael Bennett is sitting comfortably in the top 20 too.

A top pass defence is made up of a powerful rush and good players in the secondary and the Brees have the latter part of that locked down too having scored the second most points there so far this season, only just behind the Sadness in 1st.  Much like the Dungeoneers, however, this unit is severely unbalanced in favour of the safeties.  The Brees only have one cornerback in the top 30, Justin Bethel.  Given that over half of Bethel’s points came in week 1 when he wasn’t even on the roster this is not great performance.  Thank the Lord for their safeties then.  With 4 players in the top 21 the Brees have top production and strength in-depth enough here to cover bye weeks and injuries.  With Ronald Darby coming back in a few weeks the Brees should be set to keep producing at a high level in the secondary.  Looking at these pieces it’s small wonder the Brees have the best defence in the Dbowl at the moment.

Maybe they should look at converting some of those secondary players to receivers as it’s unlikely they could be much worse than the reprobates currently filling their roster out at the wide receiver position.  Until this week the injury to Allen Robinson and under-performance of Martavis Bryant meant that JJ Nelson was the only receiver in the top 40.  Ben Archer has not sat idly by through this crisis however and this week saw a move made to bring in an elite option in the shape of JJ’s big white brother, Jordy.  The steady WR1 production he will bring to the Brees can anchor them and if Bryant can work into the form they may yet turn out to be ok.  Particularly given the strong showing from their TEs so far this year where, even with Tyler Eifert’s injury problems, they have two guys in the top 10 as both Zach Ertz and Charles Clay have been target hogs for their teams.

The picture is not so rosy at linebacker where, even allowing for the fact that they have only started three players at the position in two of the weeks, the output has been poor.  This is really a story of a lack of elite options as the Brees have 3 guys in the top 40 and Shaq Thompson just outside that.  The dudes they have are doing ok but to pick up performance somebody needs to step up to the table and hit at least high LB2 levels.  With that a unit that is already at the top end of what the Dbowl has to offer could become a true runaway leader on that side of the ball.

Offence Average: 93.54 points (8th)
Defence Average: 85.06 points (1st)
Overall Average: 178.60 points (6th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Peter)

 

Tamworth Two

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Running Backs, Secondary

Slim pickings for T2 in what has been a disappointing start to the season for them.  With most of their units hovering around average the only thing to really pick out for comment in good terms is the Quarterbacks where they score 3.5 points more than average and are 3rd strongest amongst all Dbowlers.  Not much analysis to be done though, that’s just what happens when Aaron Rodgers is your QB.  Kirk Cousins provides strong backup at the position for bye week cover but T2 better hope Rodgers stays healthy or one of the few things that’s been going right for them this year may disappear.

To say that T2 have been struggling at the RB position seems odd.  On paper their attack of LeSean McCoy, Bilal Powell, Mike Gilislee and Duke Johnson looks strong but those players have just not performed consistently with none of them cracking the top 15 backs so far this year.  As a consequence T2 are actually 2nd lowest scoring at the position, 7 points per week behind the average and over 21 points per week behind the top unit.  This feels like a blip though, I fully expect this unit to have returned to the top half by the end of the year as NFL offences warm up, the Patriots stop getting into shootouts every week and the Jets realise that Bilal Powell is more or less their only weapon on offence.

Their problems at secondary may not correct themselves as automatically however.  Through 4 weeks the returning ability of Adoree Jackson makes him their only succesful option at CB and Landon Collins, a monster last season, has disappointed so far this year putting in only low S2 numbers.  The good news for T2 is that with scores of 11.5, 15.25, 22 and 28.18 the performance of their secondary is trending up as Goodson and Ward start to get their selections right and work that blind bidding for better options.  T2 are consistently amongst the best in the Dbowl at building defences and spotting strong performers early so I am confident this can be turned around.

Offence Average: 95.36 points (6th)
Defence Average: 77.03 points (6th)
Overall Average: 172.39 points (8th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Peter)

 

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Receivers (also Secondary but I’m fed up of writing about secondaries already)
Stuck in the Mud: Er… Special Teams?

My prediction for Dbowl champions ahead of the season, the Sadness have had a funny old start to the year.  They’ve scored very well being, on average, the 2nd highest points scorer in the competition yet they are 2-2 after 4 weeks.  Scoring of that kind of calibre should pay off over the course of 13 weeks though and I would be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.  Their running backs are really leading the charge for Mangboob’s team as they are the top scoring unit of their type in the league, a frankly silly 7 points better per week than anyone else and 14 points above the average.  Kareem Hunt’s superhuman breakout is a large part of this but with Ezekiel Elliott and Ameer Abdullah on the books too, the Sadness are not just a one-trick pony.  Assuming that Jacquizz Rodgers loses his starting job to Doug Martin the bye weeks could present a problem for Mangboob, however, as he only has Theo Riddick and Shane Vereen backing up his starters.  Having said that, there aren’t many teams in the league for whom bye weeks aren’t a problem though as the RB position is thin for a league playing three starters each week.

The Sadness actually have a complete offence though with their receivers lagging only slightly behind the backs, being the 2nd highest scoring unit so far this year, 8.5 points per week above the average.  This position is only really likely to improve too as Odell Beckham is currently outside the top 20 WRs due to injury and Eli (admittedly, only one of those is going to go away).  Stefon Diggs and Michael Thomas lead the line for the Sadness with the former being the #1 receiver so far this season (how’s that Dez Bryant trade looking, Chris?).  There is strength in-depth here too with Allen Hurns, Pierre Garcon and Ted Ginn all sitting behind the front 3 ready to contribute solid WR4 numbers.  At TE they appear comfortable too as, even with Jordan Reed’s disappointing start to the season, Delanie Walker is still a mid-tier TE1 able to happily cover the position off and put up good numbers.

They also have the best secondary.  Same story as everyone else here really.  Rubbish CBs and really good Safeties.  It’s almost like the CB position is impossible to predict, eh?

So where do the Sadness fall down then?  It’s difficult to pick out a problem area to be honest as, really, the issue is that too many of their other units (LB, D-line, QB) are just at or below average.  The only place they fail to score well is on special teams where the Sadness’ haul of 10.16 points per game is the worst in the league.  Despite both his kicker and punter being miles outside the top 20 at the position, Mangboob is keeping faith with both of them seemingly and this could be a problem as he’s currently giving away 4 points per week to the average team due to this oversight although at least he hasn’t lost any games by that margin so far this year.

Offence Average: 119.25 points (2nd)
Defence Average: 78.48 points (5th)
Overall Average: 197.72 points (2nd)
Record: 2-2 (3rd in Peter)

 

Dynasore Losers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Everything Else

Look, there’s not much point in going into the stats here.  David Slater’s Losers are in full rebuild mode here with their ageing or short contract players being traded away for picks so looking at the numbers tells us nothing.  Let’s instead take a look at the players that the Dynasore Losers have to anchor that rebuild around.

First off, they look set at Quarterback.  I don’t know what happened to Derek Carr in the last two weeks but, long-term, I think he’ll be a good fantasy Quarterback and Jameis Winston is no slouch either though Slater could probably do with Winston not cracking the top 7 this year to keep his renewal price down.  At any rate, there’s no immediate need at this position.

Similarly at RB the building blocks are in place for a decent unit.  Despite both being on the same team, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have very different roles and there’s no reason why both can’t be top 25 at their position at least in a year if the offence is built right.  Behind those two sit Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington who will, I think, in the next few weeks start to take more workload away from Marshawn Lynch who is starting to look his age after a bit of week 1 and 2 freshness.  Add Christian McCaffrey on top of that and this part of the team should be fine.

Offence Average: 82.53 points (10th)
Defence Average: 54.61 points (10th)
Overall Average: 137.14 points (10th)
Record: 0-4 (5th in Peter)

 

Champions of the Sun

Forging Ahead: Receivers, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line, Secondary

Apart from an inexplicably terrible week 1 performance the former Dbowl champions have looked strong so far this year, led by their receivers and linebackers, both of whom are the top scoring units at their position so far this year.  At WR, the Champions have 7 players in the top 40 and 4 in the top 20, showcasing impressive (and somewhat unexpected) strength in-depth that should see them able to cope with their bye weeks ok.  It would be fair to question whether the performances of the likes of Chris Hogan (TD dependent so far) and Sterling Shepard (a lack of OBJ) can continue but even with a bit of regression from a couple of players they should remain strong to season’s end.

By contrast, the linebacker performance is all about top end with three guys in the top 5 (Clowney, Houston and Mack) and McKinney in the top 20 but then only one more player anywhere in the top 50.  This performance is more likely to drop, both through injury and bye weeks and Clowney’s large number of big plays through 4 weeks.  Max Cubberley will hope to see more from the likes of Anthony Barr, Kiko Alonso and Jamie Collins in the coming weeks to bolster his options at the position.

Really, it’s a good job the linebackers are doing well because the D-line and the secondary have been a disappointment.  After signing Leonard Williams to a decent sized extension this off-season Cubberley will have been hoping the Jets DE could be an every week starter but he only has 6.5 points through 4 weeks.  Combined with Khalil Mack’s off-season re-positioning to LB, the Champions have been left in the lurch and this shows with an average weekly score of only 16.88, good for 9th in the league.  The bright spot for Cubberley is Dante Fowler’s emergence and he must now be an every week starter despite his comparatively low snap count.  The Champions felt confident at DT going into the season with Marcell Dareus, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins but so far only Collins has had any value and Dareus has recently been dropped.  This unit should improve going forward with the addition of Danielle Hunter and the emergence of Dante Fowler and Cubberley will hope it does to take some pressure off his LBs.

The same will be needed from the Champions’ secondary who have scored 20.19 points per game so far this year, 8th in the league and 2.5 points below average.  There are some mitigating factors here however with 3 of the Champions’ 8 starting CBs (PJ Williams, Orlando Scandrick, Josh Norman) so far this year unable to even complete the first half of their games.  The players who have seen out the games haven’t been great either though with none of Reshad Jones, Jahleel Addae or TJ Ward able to put up points at safety.  Cubberley will be hoping that the recently promoted Malik Hooker (#9 safety so far) and the added EJ Gaines and Jason McCourty can help the unit to kick on.

Offence Average: 121.68 points (1st)
Defence Average: 80.16 points (3rd)
Overall Average: 201.84 points (1st)
Record: 3-1 (3rd in Tim)

 

DynaForOne Firebirds

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks, Defensive Line, Special Teams
Stuck in the Mud: Secondary

Looking through the Firebirds stats it is apparent how unlucky they are to be 1-3 and bottom of Tim.  They have a number of units performing very well (as well as the ones I’ll cover their receivers are very good too) and even their lesser performing units are largely just below average rather than bad (with one exception).

The place to start here is at Quarterback where Neil Hawke has rolled out Russell Wilson every week except one and, despite the Seahawks’ struggles, done very well out of it.  After a slow start (which saw Wilson dropped for Big Phil Rivers) the diminutive QB has racked up the points with over 60 in the last two weeks, good enough for #3 at the position behind Tom Brady and Alex(!) Smith(!!!!).  With Rivers and Dak Prescott backing up Wilson, the Birds are set for a few years here.

Perhaps more surprising is the Firebirds’ performance at receiver where they rank 3rd behind only the Champions of the Sun and the Dynasty of Sadness.  Sure, you would expect a unit led by Julio Jones and Rob Gronkowski to be good but, whilst Gronk’s been Gronking, Jones is only the #31 WR so far.  The real star has been not-quite-dead-yet Larry Fitzgerald, who is lurking in the top 10 but beyond that Hawke’s receivers are doing fine but not spectacularly.  It all goes to show the difference that Gronkowski makes as a TE with his superiority at the position helping to take the burden away from everyone else.  A quick note here on Neil’s special teams unit who are the best in the league.  With the #2 kicker and the #6 punter the points are going on the board every week at a steady rate.  Take note Mangboob!

The real weakness in the Firebirds’ team is the secondary, the lowest scoring in the Dbowl and giving away 2 points to the secondary in 9th and 5.5 points to the average secondary.  The worst part of this is the Hawke actually has good players at the position.  Darius Slay and Desmond Trufant are the #3 and #16 CBs and Devin McCourty is the #16 safety.  True, he has no good second option at safety but perhaps this a case of too much tinkering.  If Hawke keeps it simple from now and plays his top-scoring guys every week there should be an improvement here.

 

Offence Average: 114.80 points (3rd)
Defence Average: 67.63 points (8th)
Overall Average: 182.43 points (5th)
Record: 1-3 (5th in Tim)

 

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Forging Ahead: Sorry lads…
Stuck in the Mud: Running backs, receivers, linebackers

Ooof, talk about first to worst.  Well, you can’t quite talk about that thanks to the Dynasore Losers epic deconstruction of what can be considered a “team” but the season is not going well for Kelkowski.  As such I have nothing positive to say.  Their D-line and Quarterbacks are both 4th in the league but every other unit is below average and, in the case of their running backs, worst in the league.  Scoring an incredible 18.13 points per week, Kelkowski’s ball-movers are giving away an almost unbelievable 14.5 points per game to the average Dbowl running attack.  Speaking as someone who owns both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the Cbowl I can see where a lot of this problem is coming from but Mark Ingram has not been doing the business either and behind those three is only the walking corpse of Chris Johnson and whatever a TJ Yeldon is.  Boys, I know that trading is for suckers but it may be time to start dusting off the fax machine and finding some way to address this problem.

Although, maybe that would just be a waste of time.  After all, Kelkowski’s receivers are only one place better, being 9th in the league and only .7 points per week ahead of the Dynasore Losers.  At least they’re only giving away 6 points per week to the average team here though so that’s an improvement right?  When your top four scoring receivers are Devin Funchess, Rishard Matthews, Travis Benjamin and Jaron Brown though you are going to have a problem.  To be fair to them Kelkowski have hit a perfect storm of under performance so far this year.  Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin and Terelle Pryor have all been major disappointments in one way or another and find themselves all outside the top 40 receivers.  At this point though, would anyone like to bet that they will improve?  I’m not sure I would.

This roast now concludes with a look at Kelkowski’s linebackers, traditionally a strong unit for them.  Although bad (4th worst in the league and giving 6 points away to the average) this area is not as disastrous as the two above.  Kwon Alexander and Dont’a Hightower has been missing most of the year and that’s two big names to be without.  Behind them both Terrell Suggs and recently acquired Nick Vigil are performing at LB2 levels and there are a cadre of guys lower than that who have been ok but nothing more.  Really the team is suffering from a lack of high impact players at the position and this should get better when Alexander and Hightower are back and now Nick Vigil’s apparent 10-tackle-floor can kick in.

Offence Average: 85.20 points (9th)
Defence Average: 65.66 points (9th)
Overall Average: 150.86 points (9th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Tim)

 

Live Free or Dyna Hard

Forging Ahead: Running backs, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line

In many ways, DynaHard are the anti-Tamworth Two in that their success comes this year from being at or just above average in most things and not having any real weaknesses.  One of their best units though has been their running backs who are the second highest scoring (albeit still 7 points a week behind Mangboob’s powerhouses).  The resurgent Todd Gurley (#2) leads the way and Chris Braithwaite has a guy in every tier from there down with Ty Montgomery performing as an RB2, Frank Gore as an RB3 and Wendell Smallwood as an RB4.  To cover his bye weeks Chris is going to have to hope that wily vets Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch still have something in the tank but, fitness allowing, Gurley and A. N. Other running back should really be enough to keep up a high level of performance.

Although not performing as well as his running backs, Braithwaite’s linebackers are 3rd in the league and best of the rest behind the elite performances of the Champions of the Sun and the Bombermen (see below).  CJ Mosley, Ryan Kerrigan and Von Miller are all in the top 10 with TJ Watt and Demario Davis also in the top 21.  Continuing to look down the list we find Jatavis Brown and Thomas Davis both putting up decent numbers for bye week cover and this unit should continue at this level, if not improve, to season’s end.  If anything I would expect to see them close the gap on the top 2 rather than sink down into the pack.

As mentioned, there’s not much that DynaHard are bad at but Braithwaite will be disappointed in his defensive line so far this year.  A lot of resources are tied up in JJ Watt and, for understandable reasons, he has not looked anything like his former self so far this year.  That puts the DE production on the shoulders of Ziggy Ansah, Olivier Vernon and rookie Solomon Thomas.  Vernon (in my experience) has always been a slow starter but the signs look good that Ansah is close to a return to form so I expect to see this unit improve from their current 3rd worst position towards the middle of the pack as we go through the year.  There could be problems at DT however where Chris has all his eggs in a Timmy Jernigan-shaped basket, being literally his only player at the position.  I’m sure DynaHard have plans to address this either through trade or free agency but with Jernigan questionable for this week’s game sooner would be better than later!

Offence Average: 112.27 points (4th)
Defence Average: 76.20 points (7th)
Overall Average: 188.47 points (3rd)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Tim)

 

Dynablaster Bombermen

Forging Ahead: Special Teams, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks

On offence this season the Bombermen have been pulled through by their special teams performance as the rest of their unit has been patchy.  Sam Koch is the #3 punter and Will Lutz is the #6 kicker.  Apparently #6 isn’t good enough for The Commish though because Lutz finds himself on the scrapheap, shunted in favour of the mighty Legatron, the #1 kicker in all of football.  Could the league’s 2nd best special teams unit just have made the move to push them ahead of the Sadness into first place?

On defence it’s the Bombermen’s linebackers who are carrying the team however.  Similarly to the Champions of the Sun’s elite unit however there is a lot resting on Ryan Shazier and Chandler Jones here (the #3 and #4 linebackers).  Outside those 2 only have two more LBs in the top 50 (Zach Brown at 33 and Sean Lee at 49.  The Bombermen need to hope that Shazier and Jones can stay fit (something the former has not been able to do historically) and that rookies Reuben Foster and Carl Lawson can build on the promise they’ve shown so far to become solid contributors as the season goes forward.

Maybe I was wrong.  Maybe the Bombermen are the anti-Tamworth Two because the secret of their success this year seems to be not being worse than 6th in the league at anything and then letting your elite special teams and linebackers carry you.  I’m going to criticize their Quarterbacks a bit though because although they are only 7th in the league they are giving away 3.5 points on the average which is reasonably significant.  It’s hard to be too critical though, you would have thought that going into the season with Matt Ryan as your #1 and Tyrod Taylor as your backup would’ve been fine but so far Matt Ryan is giving you a return more like his 2015 version than the Superbowl one.  Hopefully for the Bombermen he’ll turn that around but in the short-term it may actually be worth looking to Tyrod Taylor’s running floor until he does.

Offence Average: 101.70 points (5th)
Defence Average: 82.36 points (2nd)
Overall Average: 184.06 points (4th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Tim)

Peter vs. Tim

The last thing to do before I leave you (probably for another year) is a quick look at how Peter and Tim are doing overall.  Maybe this is the year the gap closes?  The year that Peter can finally match or even surpass Tim?

1 2 3 4
Peter 168.18 171.59 155.381 191.744
Tim 170.784 192.183 194.132 169.023
Winner Tim Tim Tim Peter
Margin 2.60 20.59 38.75 -22.72

Not likely, mate.  TIM FOR LIFE!

Post-Draft Pre-Draft Analysis: Wide Receivers

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Editors note: This is one from the archives, having not been published back in May, when it was relevant. Still, now you can see if he still holds up… Anyway, onwards!

Obviously, this review follows a little later than the other reviews, at QB and RB, so trying to do it exactly the same way is going to be silly, but I still want to avoid just reviewing landing spots and staying with player evaluation and how their skills might fit certain teams/situations. But before getting into individuals, a quick recap of what a WR offers you as a draft pick.

Wide Receiver is on paper the worst of both worlds compared to RBs and QBs. RBs offer three years of good performance for the investment, but the best are not necessarily the highest drafted, so they have bust potential. QBs tend to offer worse performance, with only a handful being fantasy relevant (not helped by the low number of fantasy relevant QBs in general) however the highest drafted tend to be the best performers. This is shared by WRs who also offer the unpredictability of RBs in finding the best ones – obviously it’s hard to judge off one or two years performance, but Coleman, Dotson, Treadwell, White, Parker were all top five Dynabowl picks who’ve looked nothing like worth that value – and the NFL’s bust rate (considerably lower bar than fantasy’s) is something like 50% for first round receivers, so obviously there’s issues with scouting and evaluating college talent in general.

So why would you spend a high pick on a receiver? Because it’s worth it when you hit – they’re generally durable, and offer a longer term return than a running back if you can nail the right pick. Plus we need a lot of them – most teams will be using a flex on a WR, meaning up to 40 are starting most weeks. What you’re really spending a pick on is less what you get during the rookie years, but more first refusal on a potential stud after 3 or 4 years. If they’re a day one success like Beckham that’s a rarity, and a major bonus (though maybe not so much when that 3rd/4th year extension rolls around). With both these things in mind, it is worth pointing out that attempting to evaluate players who NFL teams fail to evaluate particularly well most of the time is probably going to be a waste of time, but what else can I do now? I’ve committed to it.

Corey Davis (Western Michigan) Let’s start by correcting a misunderstanding I’ve seen floated a couple of times around the league. Antonio Brown came out of the MAC – not from Western Michigan as some have incorrectly claimed, but Central Michigan – but so do lots of players. Tom Brady came out of Michigan (not Central, Eastern or Western, just plain old Michigan in the Big 10) and so did Chad Henne. That does not mean we should use Brady as some kind of template for Henne’s career, just as we shouldn’t use Antonio Brown as a template for projecting Corey Davis.

There’s other flaws in that thinking too; Davis goes to Tennessee and their Exotic Smashmouth offence, while Brown went to Pittsburgh and has played most of his career in a deep strike, pass-happy Todd Haley offence with Roethlisberger; Davis is a top five pick, not a mid-round project and will be expected to produce immediately; Brown was not the standout at college level that Davis was; Western Michigan is not the talent spotter/producer Central Michigan was around the time in question (JJ Watt and Joe Staley also went through that program), and has no real track record of producing great players (though Terry Crews did go through there). Most of all though it ignores other issues, touched on above in the Henne/Brady comparison – there are dozens of MAC players who don’t crack it at the top level. Why on Earth does it make sense to project someone against the best receiver the conference has ever produced, instead of against the best players from the conference who’ve not made the step up.

What does that mean for his fantasy value? I still have him as the highest receiver on my board. I think his bust potential is huge, and I’d put it way ahead of his chance of succeeding. But if he can translate his production to the next level he should prove a very good fantasy receiver, and that’s what’s enticing. There’s some interesting prospects in a fairly meh year overall at the position, but nobody else has the ceiling of Davis, who is one of the most productive college receivers ever to come to the NFL, and while I have concerns about his lack of exposure to the top defences and defensive backs, it never hurt Jerry Rice who played in Div I-AA for MVSU and still managed a reasonably good career. It does however mean that he’s spent most of his career playing against none power-5 teams, and while he does have a couple of good games back in 2013 against Big 10 teams, he’s mostly disappointed in those matchups, never more so than in the 2015 defeat against Ohio State when he was held to 42 yards on 6 catches against probably the best defence he faced in four years.

Against Ball State you see exactly the sort of problems I’m referring to, he’s given the sort of free release he just won’t get in the NFL, with about as un-pressed as coverage gets. He shows off his ability to go up and make throws over the corner, but also his issue with focus drops, and too often for me he doesn’t come away with the ball in contact on the kind of plays he’ll need to make to succeed in the NFL – whether that’s because of route running/body position issues or his ability to control the ball in contact I’m not sure. I don’t see a ton of electric speed either, he runs past whatever back is covering him consistently (I suspect because they’re not following his route well), but isn’t running away from guys after the catch, and I wonder if his non-involvement in the combine was to try to hide that speed and help his draft stock. He flashes some good moves though and the ability to make guys miss (although again, the quality of the opposition defensive backs is a concern there), and you can see the raw tools that would have intrigued NFL scouts, and despite my concerns about his catching under pressure he does have the hands to make circus catches when not under pressure. Ultimately I worry about his landing spot too – he’s not a classic number one receiver, top cornerbacks will be able to shut him out – especially at first and I’d have preferred to see him land as a number two option in a highly productive offence where he’ll not be lined up against the opposition’s best consistently or trapped in double-coverage. Time will tell but for me, despite the potential reward, I just couldn’t justify the price of a top three pick that would be needed to secure a player who just doesn’t seem to me to be an elite receiver in the making.

Mike Williams (Clemson) Just as Davis was a fairly clear number one at receiver, Williams is the obvious number two, and that’s before factoring in the landing spot in a pass-friendly Chargers team who won’t ask him to stretch the field. Williams is nowhere near as productive as Davis, but the ACC is not the MAC, and Clemson have other weapons around which the offence can function. What I like most though is that it’s often been in the biggest games, against the best opposition, that Williams has shone – 202 yards in defeat against Pitt this year, 174 yards against Auburn, 146 against NC State, 190 yards and a TD in the two playoff games this year. There’s a tendency for Clemson to not use him much against the likes of Boston College, Troy and South Carolina State (only 7 catches in these three games in 2016) so he’s not put up the volume that Davis did, but he’s consistently productive against the best teams in the toughest match ups and that bodes well for the transition to the NFL.

Clemson have produced more than a few NFL players in recent years, and while I would point to the Henne/Brady thing above when cautioning about drawing comparisons, Clemson’s been successful to some degree with Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins as headline conversions to the NFL (Adam Humphries in Tampa Bay is coming along as well). That might seem like a mixed bag, but I think it’s fair to say Clemson can’t be held responsible for Watkins ending up in Buffalo and being hurt a lot, nor Bryant’s need to relax before a drugs test with a spliff and when available both have shown promising signs they could become really good weapons and fantasy options. Not to mention that most colleges can’t produce a single good receiver, let alone three potentially good ones.

Williams didn’t run in the combine, and there’s a definite question mark over his speed, but that doesn’t matter in the sort of short-passing offence the Chargers run, especially as they have a very good deep speed threat already. Watch that Pitt video and you see how he elevates above corners, getting good outside position and using his height and leap to go up and win the ball. That combination of being able to win vertically, and having the toughness to work the middle of the field, should see him be productive from fairly early especially in a high-volume offence such as the Chargers, though his speed and route-running will probably hold him back from being a star. I’m not sure he’s worth of the sort of pick he’ll demand, but while Davis is the sort of luxury pick a competitive team might risk a flier on in the hope it pays off, Williams is exactly the sort of steady reliable WR2 with upside type you want to pad your roster with when rebuilding or in cap trouble.

John Ross (Washington) I’m not going to bother talking about anything other than 2016 for John Ross as there wasn’t really anything other than 2016 to catch anyone’s interest. With 1150 yards and 17 TDs, and another 1 added in the rushing game, Ross’s production was good, but it’s his speed and ability to create scores out of very little that really stood out, and he turned heads by becoming the fastest prospect ever timed at the combine. However, and it’s a big however, Washington’s schedule was a joke. They faced a ranked Stanford early-ish, but that was before Stanford had really cratered with their lack of a QB catching up to them and so that win looked better at the time than it does now, looking back. Similarly, their loss to unranked USC looks a little worse than it really was as it’s become clear there’s a very good team in USC who just took way too long to sort themselves out to be relevant in 2016. Anyway, thanks to a very soft schedule they ended up (undeservedly) in the playoffs where they got absolutely bossed by Alabama – nobody more so than Ross, who came up small in the biggest moment. That wasn’t the case all year, he had a big day in the loss to USC, and was solid in the win over Stanford, but the PAC-12 teams are not exactly known for their sterling defences and it ultimately may be a reflection of that, rather than a big game mentality. I want to get excited about Ross’ upside, but I just don’t see it – he’s not big enough to win vertically, and he’ll basically be a better version of Fuller – he’ll run fast in a straight line and get behind defences, and when he does he’ll not drop it like Fuller does – which would be great in a landing spot where he didn’t have AJ Green, Jeremy Hill and Tyler Eifert ahead of him. He’s not a red zone weapon either, particularly in Cincy, and I think that hurts him a lot. In the right spot, I could have seen him have some fantasy relevance, and maybe he will have, but I think he’s at best a Desean Jackson type lottery ticket – scoring 18 points one week and 1.8 the next – who’ll drive his owner mad. Ross will almost certainly demand a first round pick, but absolutely doesn’t look worth it.

Zay Jones (Eastern Carolina) Let’s start with the basic, Jones is quick – only 5 100ths slower than Josh Malone in a fairly crowded bunch of receivers behind John Ross and Curtis Samuel at the top of the 40 leaderboard. He was also productive – over 1,000 yards in 2015 and over 1700 in 2016. Playing in the American, all the caveats about quality opposition apply to Jones as much as to Davis or Ross, with an added one about playing for a bad team in the American Conference. But the consistency of his production was notable, with only three games below 100 yards in 2016 and only two with fewer than 10 receptions. Unfortunately they also came against three of the better teams ECSU faced – Cincinatti, NC State and Temple. He had a good day personally against a pretty good Navy team, but there’s nothing you can point to that’s exceptional like Ross’ speed or Davis’ vertical play, he just consistently churns out positive plays, with minimal drops and with no real competition in Buffalo his speed to go deep and steady production could produce a decent fantasy option, if not a spectacular one. And if nothing else, you’re getting an athlete who while not standing out in any given discipline did well in most of them at the combine. However, he’s a hilariously bad blocker and seriously lacking strength on his skinny frame. That could be a problem. Think of someone like Emmanuel Sanders, who’ll probably be pretty good for the Patriots, when Buffalo refuse to extend his contract in a few years. I have Jones pretty high considering his limitations, but his athleticism is interesting and ultimately it’s because I don’t really like any of the receivers and it’s possible that in a fairly mediocre year he ends up being the best of the lot simply because he’ll be a reliable performer who could develop into a very good one, and he’s proved adept at a Landry type role where he catches the ball behind the line and turns it into a solid gain.

In order to keep this on the short side, I am not going to go as deep as some other positions, but I’ll deal with two others…

Curtis Samuel (Ohio State) Don’t sleep on Samuel, he’s behind only Ross as the fastest man in this year’s draft and he has the shifty footwork Ross perhaps lacks that will enable him to freeze corners and buy him space to release and he’s likely going to be used by Carolina to replace Ted Ginn Jr. That suits him (although being in Carolina alongside McCaffrey doesn’t help) and if I’m right about the Ted Ginn role then he’s likely to be the main deep speed threat (Benjamin, Olsen and Funchess provide literally no competition for this role either), as well as returning punts and kicks, and seeing the field on plays like jet sweeps or trick plays. I like him, and his relatively niche spot on the Panthers could see him put up impressive fantasy numbers from early on. Or, much like Ted Ginn, he could be an occasionally impressive but rarely relevant fantasy option. Worth the second round pick he’s likely to command, simply because Ginn’s 2015 numbers show there’s potential for a WR to deliver in this system in that role.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC) probably would have found himself alongside Davis and Williams at the top of this class based on his 2015 production. USC’s early struggles before settling on Freshman (and presumptive 2018 #1) Sam Darnold at QB. The first three games with Darnold starting were easily the best chunk of JJSS’s season, with 368 yards and 6 TDs over three games. Unfortunately it didn’t continue, and while his early struggles could perhaps be excused USC’s tough start and their struggle to find a QB, the five game run to end the regular season where he managed only 216 yards and 1 TD could not. He finished with a great day against Penn State in the Rose Bowl, but overall he only showed glimpses of the electric form he showed in early 2015 to get himself to the top of the 2017 draft class. He doesn’t have elite speed, and generally disappointed at the combine in each of the categories, but what he does have is good physicality, and a willingness to go and make the tough catches under pressure. He’s drawn comparisons with Anquan Boldin, and that’s not unfair but it does mark him out as a middling fantasy option at best. He’ll probably be over-drafted because there’s a tendency to over-rate Pittsburgh receivers fantasy viability, but without a standout TE, it’s possible JJSS could end up being a solid red zone option because of his ability to compete and make plays. If he’s still there in the mid- to late- second then he’ll be a solid pick, anything higher than about 11 though would be a reach.

A Beginner’s Guide to College Fitba

Previews Rookie Draft No Comments

Me again,

I thought I’d do a quick college football preview for anyone who’s interested in learning a bit more about the guys who might be near the top of the Dynabowl draft in the coming year or two. So for a handful of players I’ll look at what they might do, and then to summarise at the bottom I’ll note some of the games I’ve highlighted, and some others I maybe haven’t mentioned but that will be well worth a watch.

Sam Darnold (QB, USC #4, PAC-12) is the presumptive number one overall pick in the 2018 draft. Evaluating QBs is about more than pure college performance, which is why Darnold is ahead of say Baker Mayfield, who for me is the best QB, possibly best player, in college football. USC certainly aren’t shy throwing the ball, like any PAC-12 team they love to air it out, but not on the scale that some of the big 12 this year will. Darnold is pretty bloody good too though. For me he throws a few too many interceptions, and that should be something anyone scouting him pays attention to this year. What he does do though is win. USC’s season was already in the tank last year (1-3 start, with a heavy losses to Stanford and Bama) before he took over the starting job, but after he did the upturn was immediate and significant, most notable was the dismantling of Washington (who went to the CFP) late in the regular season, and the for-the-ages Rose Bowl shootout victory over a very good Penn State team (well offence) that saw 1-3 turned into a respectable 10-3 season. Assuming Darnold does make the jump, he could well be a 180+ rated passer, with around 5 ints and 50 TDS on his way to over 4k yards. That might well nab him a Heismann of his own on his way to the #1 pick. Of course, he could also be the guy who struggles to follow up his first year, and stays steady or regresses a little as teams / defensive backs see a chance to make a name for themselves against such a stellar prospect, and the loss of JuJu Schuster Smith to the Steelers in the NFL Draft won’t help. Either way it’ll be fun, and there’s a good chance USC is in the conversation in the PAC-12 until late in the year. However, it’s equally possible that they’re basically out of the CFP picture by week three with huge games in week 2 and week 3 against Stanford and Texas respectively and nowhere near enough real, quality teams (unless ND come out firing and bump up their ranking) on their schedule to help mitigate those losses, even if it ends up being enough to win the PAC-12. Catch them early in those big games, the game with Stanford (W2) and the match up against Tom Herman’s Texas (W3) are definitely the big highlights, and that Stanford game could be a prelude to a much more significant rematch for the PAC-12 conference title and a playoff spot.

Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma University #7, Big 12) is basically the player Darnold wants to be this year. Last year he posted a stellar 196 PER, breaking Russell Wilson’s (he turned out pretty OK) single-season mark at Wisconsin for the best ever season by a passer, completing 71% (top 30 all time) of his passes for 11.1 yards per attempt, itself the 2nd best mark in history (behind Michael Vick). That’s the sort of number you look at as good per completion. He also racked up 40 TDs and 8 ints (less than Darnold in more games). Basically, he was pretty fucking good. And he’s not the presumptive #1, which I can only assume is mostly because teams look down on spread offence QBs (there’s a good article on the Ringer about just this). Anyway, the Big 12 is a fun conference, maybe not as high quality as the big three (Big 10 East, SEC West and ACC Atlantic Division), but with Oklahoma, Texas, OSU, WVU and Kansas state all in the pre-season top 25 it’s definitely in the mix, and has been unfairly shut out of the CFP in two out of three seasons (particularly last year). It’s virtually impossible to pick between OSU and OU (#10) to win it this year, which means that Bedlam (Week 10 – their 9th game) will be huge and it’s really a can’t miss rivalry game any year, but especially this year. In a bid to make sure their teams got more of a shot at the CFP the Big 12 mandated their teams to really stack their schedules, which means in week two (on top of Stanford-USC), it’s well worth tuning in to watch Mayfield take on one of the best defences (Ohio #2) in the entire NCAA, on the road in front of 100k+ fans, which means it’ll be a real test of his mettle.

I could go on talking about QBs, there’s tons of exciting guys around. Whether it’s Josh Jackson (Virginia Tech #21, ACC Coastal) who could be one to watch for the future (redshirt freshman) taking over the QB spot for the Hokies, who just looks a really exciting athlete and a potential star. Deondre Francois (FSU #3, ACC Atlantic) who’s a fairly common pick to take a big leap forward this year in a loaded FSU team who many think will be back in the CFP again. And who could forget reigning Heismann champion Lamar Jackson (Louisville #16, ACC Atlantic) who should be even better in his second year as a starter, quite a claim for a guy who had over 5,000 total yards and 50 total touchdowns. And that’s just in the ACC. But QBs aren’t the guys who’re going to hit the top of the Dynabowl draft board. So how about some running backs?

Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State #6, Big 10) inherits the title of best running back in college football, after carrying Penn State to a surprise title in the Big 10, ahead of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan and Ohio State, who ended up going to the CFP ahead of them, somewhat controversially despite Penn beating them. I don’t have Barkley on a par with McCaffrey and Fournette who were the previous competitors for the title, but he’s still a high quality player, playing in a really tough division for runners. With the Big 10 still loaded with top ten teams – Ohio, Wisconsin (Big 10 West, rather than East), Penn – and Michigan sitting 11th, there’s plenty of big games for Barkley to flash his low centre of gravity and explosive speed in, and he combines being an effective runner with good pass catching skills. With Trace McSorley also returning at QB, Penn should be in good nick to take the Big 10 title to the wire, though they start 2nd favourites behind Ohio State, who are just loaded with so much future NFL talent. Penn have back-to-back match ups with Michigan and @Ohio State in weeks 8 and 9 coming off their bye, and these are the best games to catch for this team as the Big 10 teams don’t currently tend to load up their schedules with tough non-conference games the way the other conferences have been doing.

Derrius Guice (RB, LSU #13, SEC) has big shoes to fill with Leonard Fournette now a Jaguar and looks more than capable of doing so. At his best Fournette was a beast, but he never showed that side enough because of injuries and his foot issues, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that we talk about Guice more glowingly than we do of Fournette. He’s that good. Guice clocked up over 750 yards in the last four games of last year, and with Les Miles finally moved on, it feels like LSU would be a trendy CFP pick in any other division than Alabama’s. As is ever the way the SEC has a string of teams in both the East and West divisions in the top 25, and they’re often televised games here in the 9pm Slot on BT ESPN so there’s a good chance LSU will feature more than once this season. The key matches to watch out for are the obvious ones – Auburn (week 7) and Alabama (week 10). LSU are one of the few teams in football who can match up to Alabama physically, and despite being low-scoring, last year’s game was fascinating. If Guice can produce against a much-weaked Bama front 7 (a remarkable 7 players from the Bama defence went in the NFL draft last year, but I doubt they’ll be anything less than great again), he could find himself catapulting to the top of many fantasy mock drafts.

Myles Gaskin (RB, Washington #8, PAC-12) has back-to-back 1300 yard seasons. He’s primarily a ground threat, with minimal additional yardage in the catching game, but he’s averaged a solid 5.7 and 5.8 yards in his two seasons for the Huskies with 24 total touchdowns without racking up significant mileage (no 300+ carry seasons). Chris Peterson’s team were perhaps a little over-rated last season, and a bit lucky to get the 4th CFP spot, but if they can win their half of the PAC-12 (the tougher half, with Washington State – who they play in rivalry week, week 13 – and Stanford – matched up in week 11), the championship game (assumed to be against USC) could well be a play-in game for them. They’re not the sexy pick that Stanford and USC are, but with Gaskin and Lavon Coleman in the backfield, Luke Falk returning at QB and a string of key contributors on defence (headlined by Vita Vea) all returning, they’re likely to be there or thereabouts, particularly as the loss of John Ross is perhaps not as significant as some may think with Pettis ready to step up and prove himself a number one receiver.

Justice Hill (RB, Oklahoma State #10, Big 12) is one of a string of stars in the OSU offence (Mason Rudolph at QB and James Washington at WR – more on him shortly), that make the Big 12 race so exciting. He was Big 12 freshman of the year last year, compiling over 1100 rushing yards as a rookie at 5.5 yards per carry but only a measly 6 TDs. He should improve in year two. The week 8 OSU match-up against Texas and the don’t-miss Week 10 Bedlam match up against the Sooners are the best games to see him, and Washington, in action.

There’s tons of others around, Bo Scarborough (Alabama #1, SEC) should see plenty of action for Alabama this year and is likely to go to the NFL and feature in the first round of the Dynabowl draft. The Big 10 is loaded with running backs, but Justin Jackson (Northwestern unranked, Big 10) actually lead the conference in yardage last year ahead of Saquon Barkley, and is back to carry the load again. Pitt’s back Qadree Ollison (Pitt unranked, ACC) (not to be confused with team-mate Quadree Henderson) lost the job to James Conner (now a Steeler) last year, but was a 1000y rusher in his rookie year, and while the ACC’s leading rushers have mostly moved on, Jacques Patrick (FSU #3, ACC) is a five star recruit who was an absolute monster in high school and steps into the Dalvin Cook shaped-hole in the FSU offence hoping to follow in Cook’s and Devontae Freeman’s footsteps as another NFL-bound FSU player.

Before I go into wide receivers, I’ll mention a couple of defensive players to keep an eye on. Derwin James (DB, FSU #3, ACC) is probably the best defensive back in college and may well have gone to the NFL draft if he’d not got injured and missed the whole season last year. He’s a stud, and the path from FSU to the NFL is a well-trodden one, particularly for defensive backs, who’ve gone high in the first round regularly. Vita Vea (DL, Washington #8, PAC-12) could easily have gone to the draft last year, but returns for Washington. And there’s those who suggest his name could be the first called amongst defensive players when he does go to the draft in 2018. Ohio is absolutely stacked on defense, but Tyquan Lewis (DL, Ohio State #2, Big 10) is probably the standout member, and he’ll be looking to build on last season’s 8.5 sacks, while Nick Bosa on the other side of the line from him will be hoping to follow in his brother Joey’s footsteps from Ohio State standout to the NFL. Lastly, it wouldn’t be defence without mentioning an Alabama player, so let’s go with Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB, Alabama #1, SEC), along with Derwin James one of the top two defensive backs in the college game. I haven’t really mentioned linebackers either here, and they’re pretty solid defensive players who can contribute early and often to your Dynabowl team, so pay attention to Arden Key (LB, LSU #13, SEC), who leads the SEC’s returning players from last year in sacks. Also worth keeping an eye on is the Big 10’s Tegray Scales (LB, Indiana unranked, Big 10) who had 23.5 tackles for a loss last year from linebacker.

James Washington (WR, Oklahoma State #10, Big 12) is the leading candidate to win the 2017 Biletnikoff Award for best college receiver. He’s going to be a star in the NFL. Averaging over 100 yards a game last year, with 10 TDs in the mix, he should only be better in his senior year (he opened up his account with 145y and 2 TDs in OSU’s early week one game). He’s a consistent deep threat, averaging virtually 20ypc over the last couple of seasons, but without compromising on his volume. I’ve already covered OSU’s best games, but I’ll mention Bedlam again, because why the fuck not, it’s one of the best events in the college football season.

Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama #1, SEC) is the main receiving threat on the best team in college football. He’s not put up stellar numbers so far, but that’s more to do with the depth of talent Alabama can call on, and the fact that (despite winning the Freshman of the Year award in the SEC) Jalen Hurts is not that great a passer of the ball yet. Alabama know their stuff on receivers though, with Julio Jones and Amari Cooper both going on to be successes in the NFL, despite neither being exactly high volume guys at Bama. I’m not for a second putting Ridley in a bracket with those two, but he is a really good receiver and could be in line for a breakout third year, much like Cooper. Bama’s schedule is typically loaded, simply from being in the SEC, but there’s no doubt the highlight is the week one (yes, today – hopefully this went out in time) match up with FSU that sees the 1st and 3rd ranked teams from pre-season face off in a potential early playoff sneak peek. On top of that the matches with LSU (previously mentioned) and Auburn (Week 13, rivalry week) are always tough games. I never want to over-sell Alabama matches though, they’re a really good team, but at times it’s like watching New England v Cleveland, you can admire it, but it’s not exciting simply because it’s not competitive. That’s not their fault, but ultimately it doesn’t make any difference for the neutral. Hurts is fun though, and with Scarborough, Ridley and the raft of new talent they’ll doubtless roll out, they’ll be one of the best, if not the best team in college football, and you’ll see plenty of future NFL players on show.

Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M unranked, SEC) is a dynamic receiver / returner. He had over 1000 yards receiving as a rookie, and came up just short of repeating that in his second year. He could be set for a year three breakout, but I’m not inclined to think so on an Aggies team that looks like being their worst for a while and one which will probably see it’s coach canned before the end of the season. It doesn’t matter though, as Kirk is still an exciting talent, and should find his way to the NFL draft just for his speed and ability to make things happen. They’ll face Alabama, LSU and Auburn this year as they’re in the SEC West, where the big boys play. That’s your best chance of seeing them, though I’d add that some of the other SEC games involving particularly Arkansas and recently Ole Miss (though probably not in 2017) are often fun, even if they’re not currently in a position to compete with the heavyweights of the division.

Deon Cain (WR, Clemson #5, ACC) isn’t getting much love. It’s a bit unfair on the defending National Champions, but prevailing opinion is that Clemson won’t be as good with Mike Williams and Deshaun Watson off to the NFL. Here’s the thing though, the same was true previously – Clemson’s lost quite a lot of talent to the NFL (and quite high) with guys like Vic Beasley, Sammy Watkins and Shaq Lawson all being high picks who were supposed to make the defence / offence take a step back. Dabo Sweeney is arguably as good as any coach in the NCAA though (Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Dabo Sweeney and Jimbo Fisher – but it always feels to me like Dabo has to do more with less, and doesn’t have the advantages the others enjoy when it comes to recruiting players), and where they’ll probably take a step back on offence, the defence looks primed to take a step forward. One player who should help on offence is Cain who scored 9 TDs and put up over 750 yards on only 38 catches last year, as a deep threat with great downfield speed. With an increased workload, he could be poised to make a big leap this year, and things may not be as bad at QB as they seem. Kelly Bryant is the likely starter, having served as backup the last two years to Watson, but Hunter Johnson is a five-star recruit and true freshman, who’s waiting in the wings and seems to be moving into the number two slot on the depth chart already. We’ll likely see two, it not all three of Clemson’s QBs in the first week against Kent State, but in week two against Auburn we should see who gets the nod, at least for now. Playing in the ACC Atlantic division means Clemson will be one of the best week-to-week watches, with the big games against Louisville (Week 3) and FSU (Week 11) being the highlights, while the Week 2 game against #12 Auburn is also well worth a watch, along with the game against Virginia Tech #21 (Week 5).

Anyway, there’s some guys to keep an eye on and no doubt others will emerge over the season as they breakout, or their teams do. In terms of some early projections of games to watch out for, the following all are worth taking a look at…

 

Week One: Alabama #1 v FSU #3 is not just game of the week, but a contender for best match up of the year, right up front. Michigan # 11 v Florida #17 is a decent curtain raiser too, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Wolverines have rebuilt after losing a lot of players to the NFL last spring.

Week Two For me, it’s Oklahoma #7 @ Ohio State #2 that has the most appeal, just because I love watching Baker Mayfield, week two is absolutely packed though, and the Stanford #14 @ USC #4 and Auburn #12 @ Clemson #5 games are both really tasty looking top 25 match ups. I’ll also be following Georgia #15 @ Notre Dame to see if ND are actually any good (they went 4-8 last year, but a lot of those were against really good teams, and they rarely got blown out, so they’re reasonably good bounce back candidates) while Miami #18 @ Arkansas is a good early test for Miami, especially on defence, ahead of their huge week 3 game against FSU.

Week Three Well, I’ve already mention Miami #18 @ FSU #3, which could be a preview of a potential ACC championship game. Or a defining early season game for a pair of 1-1 teams. Texas #23 @ USC #4 is a really exciting early look at Tom Herman’s Texas. He’s unbeaten at both Ohio State as OC and at Houston as HC in games where his team were the underdogs, and his Houston team were one of the best stories of 2015 and talked about as a potential CFP team from outside the Power 5 early in 2016. This has the makings of a back and forth shootout, with Darnold on one side and Herman coaching on the other. You could make the case however that the best game of the weekend is Clemson #5 @ Louisville #16. This was a great game last year between two of the ACC’s heavyweights, and reigning Heismann winner against National Champion is never going to be a bad way to bill a game.

Week Four is a good time to catch your breath, there’s no all top 25 match ups. There’s intriguing games, but nothing must see. Away from the bright lights of the Power Five conferences, the Thursday night match up between Temple and South Florida looks good, and could be decisive in deciding which one of the group of six teams is heading for a New Year’s Day Bowl game. Aside from those… UCLA @ Stanford #14, Oklahoma #7 @ Baylor and TCU @ OSU #10 could be good games.

Week Five sees Clemson #5 @ Virginia Tech #21 a game which could be very important for Clemson if it already has a loss on it’s record by this point. No two loss team has been to the CFP yet. USC #4 @ Washington State #24 is also interesting as this is two very offensive teams who haven’t shown much interest in defence, and is another shootout for Darnold to navigate through on his path to being the #1 overall pick, while Georgia #15 @ Tennessee #25 is a big game in deciding who will win the SEC East and go to the conference championship to lose to Bama.

Week Six features Alabama #1 @ Texas A&M which hasn’t been an easy game in recent seasons for the Crimson Tide. It also features Michigan #11 @ Michigan State which is about as friendly as you’d imagine it to be, the Spartans are pretty shit though, so I wouldn’t expect too much from this game. Stanford #14 @ Utah is a tricky fixture, Utah are on the fringes of the top 25 and this is no gimme, on the road, for the Cardinal. LSU #13 @ Florida #17 is the early standout, but I’m not sure it’ll be quite so appetising by the time the game rolls around, as defeat to Michigan would likely see Florida out of the top 25 quite quickly.

Week Seven has a couple of big games, with Alabama #1 @ Arkansas an interesting-ish test for Alabama’s rebuilt defence against a team who’ve given them a couple of minor scares in recent seasons. That however is merely an appetiser for the two meaty main courses – the smashmouth Auburn #12 @ LSU #13 which will likely determine Alabama’s major competitor, and the Red River Showdown – Oklahoma #7 @ Texas #23 – A Big 12 shootout between Herman’s new Texas offence and Baker Mayfield.

Week Eight ramps things up with four top 25 (pre-season) match ups, plus a couple of other interesting games. Michigan #11 @ Penn State #6 is probably going to be the most important in terms of the final standings in the Big 10 East and the playoff picture, but (for me anyway) Louisville #16 @ FSU #3 is the tastiest. FSU got a total spanking last year with Lamar Jackson scoring approximately 50 of his 51 total touchdowns in this game, so this will be real grudge match. Oklahoma State #10 @ Texas #23 will be fun, unless you’re a fan of good defence, while this week also features Tennessee #25 @ Alabama #1. I’m also throwing some love to USC #4 @ Notre Dame as another good game for Darnold to show off his stuff.

Week Nine is highlighted by another Big 10 showdown, between last year’s best two teams Penn State #6 @ Ohio State #2. There’s also an SEC top 25 match up between Georgia #15 @ Florida #17, and a Big 12 showdown between OSU #10 @ WVU #22. But this week is all about the big Big 10 match up.

Week Ten is Bedlam. I might have mentioned it… Oklahoma #7 @ Oklahoma State (OSU) #10. It’s big and meaty, and speaking of big and meaty, it doesn’t get much bigger or meatier than the battle for the line of scrimmage in LSU #13 @ Alabama #1. There’s other games of note this weekend, but these two are a class apart.

Week Eleven and there’s no let up. Two huge games that will could well be conference deciders (assuming, not unfairly, that championship games will be mostly formalities), headlined by FSU #3 @ Clemson #5 but closely followed Washington #8 @ Stanford #14. I love both these games for pitching nominal favourites on the road against huge rivals. These games will dominate, much like the pair the week before, but don’t sleep on Georgia #15 @ Auburn #12 as it’s these sorts of games that can kill a season if you lose them, and it comes at a point when college teams do start to tire and lose awkward games.

Week Twelve is unsurprisingly a bit quieter, coming as it does off the back of two huge weeks, and before the big rivalry games in week 13. There’s still a couple of tasty matchups though, and none tastier than the Big 10’s East v West battle Michigan #11 @ Wisconsin #9. Kansas State #20 @ Oklahoma State #10 and LSU #13 @ Tennessee #25 could have conference championship and bowl ramifications, but probably not playoff ones.

Week Thirteen is the big one. Rivalry week. Every single game matters, even if you’re looking at a pair of 2-X teams, pride matters. The best three though, and the most important, are likely to be Alabama #1 @ Auburn #12, FSU #3 @ Florida #17 and the big one, that produced an instant classic in triple OT last year Ohio State #2 @ Michigan #11. Harbaugh hasn’t won one of these yet, and it’s basically impossible to come any closer than they did last year. I think Michigan fans are still arguing about the spot of the ball in the drive in overtime. This has all the makings of another great matchup between the two powerhouses in the Big 10 East.

A Trade Retrospective

Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

With another draft in the books, I thought it’d be interesting to take a retrospective look at some of the more complicated trades over recent seasons, and the domino effect of those trades, so I’ve picked out six that I think are more complicated and wide reaching, or involved big names in trades to see what sort of return they netted in the end. I’ve avoided some of the bigger seeming trades where minimal picks were involved (the TY Hilton trade for example) as they essentially come down to player valuation at the time, and focused on pick heavy trades – particularly where they involved further trading down the line. I’ve ranked them very unscientifically in order of blockbusteriness and interestingness.

Six

  • DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 3.02 & 5.02 and 2017 Round 5 Pick
  • Dynasty of Sadness – 2016 2.02

Two teams that will turn up pretty often in these trades in are the Sadness and the Firebirds, but I like this trade because while there’s a lot of multi-pick trades where team A moves up a few places in a high round at the cost of moving down more places in a later round this is a much simpler decision to pay to move up. So what does the trade value chart make of this? 2.02 is worth 1200 points while 3.02 (780) and 5.02 (480) combine to more points without the additional 5th rounder in 2017 (based on 6.05 this is worth 350). In total the Firebirds paid 1610 points, the equivalent of 1.06 in order to get this pick. Or should I say, get this pick back. Since he’d previously traded it to the Sadness in exchange for Markus Wheaton about a month before. So… Firebirds ended up giving up three picks, of decent value, in order to get back a pick he spent on Markus Wheaton (who’s scored a whopping 13.1 points for him since the trade), which seemed a reach for a guy who was only around the 40th best receiver the season before (although he did finish the previous season hot).

So what did the Firebirds end up with, aside from Wheaton, for this treasure trove – CJ Prosise. A handcuff to the Thomas Rawls, acquired in an earlier trade (1.09 spent on Devontae Booker and 2.05 which was traded on again and eventually spent on Kenyan Drake, and neither of which Neil originally started with, as I’ll cover later). Prosise looked reasonably good in limited action before his injury, and getting the handcuff to Rawls seems smart in retrospect given how much he’s struggled with injuries when he’s played and how unconvinced by him Seattle seemed to be last year. Sadly that might not be enough with Lacy now in town, the expensively acquired Prosise and Rawls could both be out of the picture, unless they get smart, team up and open a burger joint near CitiLink Field.

That’s just looking at the Firebirds side of the trade though, what happened to the picks the Sadness acquired. 3.02 was spent on Mike Thomas, sadly not the one in New Orleans. LA Rams receiver Mike Thomas has been considerably worse, with a total of only 6.2 points as a rookie. He may yet turn into a good receiver, but the Rams passing offence doesn’t seem any better than last year’s putrid edition, the Rams invested in more weapons for Goff that might see Thomas fall down the depth chart all together and right now he’s probably a candidate for the chop, only one year in. And speaking of the putrid Rams offence, 5.02 was spent on the source of the terrible smell – Jared Goff. I think we all know how that’s turned out so far. As for the 2017 5th rounder (5.04) – it’s turned into Ishmael Zamora, the dog-beater. There’s really no way to know how that pick turns out at this point, but unless the plan is to dress Thomas and Goff as dogs then I’m not sure Zamora will really end up being the important part of rescuing this trade for the Sadness.

I don’t think we can pick winners or losers on a lot of these, but if we were, I’d probably shade this one to Neil right now. It also highlights an interesting point – trading down and getting good value for a premium pick is a solid strategy, but you have to spend the picks wisely when you do, not on the Rams passing offence.

Five

  • Tamworth Two – Snead, Willie NOS WR, 2016 Round 1 Pick and 2017 Round 2 Pick
  • DynaForOne Firebirds – Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

So here’s a different sort of trade to the first – a player swap, with picks to make up the difference. This pick took place in season, so the final value of both picks wasn’t known at the point of trade, but one was for the current season and it was done at the deadline with T2 in the thick of the playoff battle, so I’d call it the 1.08 pick on average, rather than the usual 1.05 average that I’d use for a future pick, but the total value of the picks still comes to close to the 3rd overall pick. That’s a lot of value, but Thomas was a stud receiver at the time, number three overall in 2014 but struggling a little in 2015 – mostly because of Peyton Manning falling off a cliff and being unable to complete a pass over 10 yards. Those sorts of talents are generally going for double firsts, which suggests Snead – not unreasonably as he’d end up putting up nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie over only 9 games, a record for an undrafted player’s rookie season – was either valued at a first himself, or maybe that the Firebirds gave Thomas up slightly cheap.

In actual fact though this is a really savvy deal, Thomas’ struggles continued in 2016 and it’s hard to remember a receiver coming back from the sort of extended dip he’s struggled through and T2 have been left with a top six salary for a player who couldn’t crack the top 20 in 2016. Between the IRL big contract and the continued problems at QB for Denver it’s not unreasonable to suggest the struggles aren’t going away. As for Snead, he followed up his 984 yards and 3 TDs with 895 yards and 4 TDs, but over 16 games. That’s probably because of the emergence of Michael Thomas in the second half of the year and the presence of Cooks, with Cooks gone Snead could break out in a bigger role in 2017. And if nothing else, he’s been so much cheaper than Thomas for similar production, and is younger, so without the picks I’d be tempted to call Neil a winner here – despite Thomas having a proven ceiling considerably higher. However, put that aside, because the pick value removes any doubt. Even with the worst picks in the world Neil’s value on this trade is off the chart. Which is probably good as Neil spent the first rounder he received as part of the Rawls trade (along with 2.05 which ended up traded around until it became Kenyan Drake – told you it would come up again), which has worked out OK, but hasn’t produced the top ten stud RB he would have hoped given the price. The 2.05 pick that the 2017 pick also ended up traded, to the Sadness along with 2.04 (and was spent on James Conner), to get the 9th overall pick which was spent on Alvin Kamara. Given that the pick traded for Rawls ended up the same pick that then subsequently got traded in 2017 the best way to look at this is probably that it’s Thomas for Snead and Rawls. Even with Rawls disappointing 2016 and unconvincing position for 2017, I’d call Neil a clear winner on this one simply because I’m not convinced Thomas has a path back to being an elite receiver right now. A pattern is emerging, don’t fuck with Neil when it comes to trades.

Four

  • Dynasty of Sadness – Tate, Golden DET WR and 2016 Picks 3.01 & 5.01
  • Champions of the Sun – 2016 Picks 1.06 & 3.10

It wouldn’t be a trade review if these two didn’t show up in it somewhere trading picks. While a lot of their trades are the sort of up in one round down in another sort of trades I mentioned in the first trade I highlighted, this one is a little more straight-forward. This is a chunk of stuff given up by one team to get a high pick off the other. I picked this one here as it involves a player as a makeweight to trade up, unlike number six which was purely about picks or number five which was mostly about trading for a star.

Let’s start with the pick valuation and see what it values Tate as in terms of a pick. Champions are giving up 2220 points of value, while Sadness give up 1290, a difference of 930 which equates to somewhere roughly in the middle of 2.07 and 2.08. Given the valuations we’ve seen of Thomas, Snead and Landry, this is probably on the low side for Tate, who was coming off something of a breakout first year in Detroit and looking at a potentially bigger role with Megatron retiring. Even with him not being as young as any of those mentioned, it’s still less than was paid for Wheaton who was considerably less productive and with far greater downside. Initially then this looks like being advantage Champions.

Fortunately for the Sadness, they played a blinder with the big pick, nabbing Michael Thomas at 1.06 – a top receiver in his rookie season, and a big part (along with Elliot) of why the Sadness made a playoff run. With Cooks gone, he has an opportunity to take on an even bigger role in the next couple of seasons. The 3.10 pick was spent on Jordan Payton who’s delivered the square root of fuck all so far in Cleveland, but there’s time for that to change. Similarly the two picks given up by Sadness have gone on QB development prospect Paxton Lynch who’s shown little to nothing so far (though was not expected to deliver anything in 2016), and Washington RB non-event Keith Marshall as the Champions correctly didn’t trust Matt Jones, but wrongly pegged Marshall rather than Fat Rob Kelley as the solution.

Right now this trade essentially boils down to Tate for Thomas, and that’s a clear win for the Dynasty of Sadness.

Three

  • Dynasty of Sadness – Bryant, Dez DAL WR and 2017 Round 5 Pick
  • Dyna Hard – Morris, Alfred DAL RB and Diggs, Stefon MIN WR and 2016 Pick 1.08 and 2017 Round 1 Pick

OK, so as a one-off trade goes, this is probably the blockbusteriest trade so far in the Dynabowl, two firsts, Stefon Diggs and Alfred Morris for Dez Bryant and a make-weight future 5th. It’s like the Thomas trade, only with sprinkles on top (Morris, two firsts instead of a first and a second). Only here’s the thing, much like Thomas, Bryant comes with a huge price tag and was coming off a disappointing year – injuries rather than Peyton Manning being the limiting factor as he produced only 57 points. And much like Thomas, he failed to deliver in 2016 as well, an injury hit start hurting his total points and putting him out of the top twenty, but even his point per game return wouldn’t have been enough for a top ten finish. As for Diggs – he wasn’t as electric as Snead in his rookie year, but he showed flashes and attracted interest off the taxi squad. Much like Snead, he’s not a better player than the one he’s been traded for… yet. But he’s in a position to succeed, as a key part of his offence, and you’d rather be buying stock in Snead/Diggs right now than in Bryant or Thomas (though I’d favour Bryant over Thomas as a comeback candidate, because the Cowboys are better at QB right now and because Bryant’s been hurt rather than just bad).

Morris is mostly irrelevant to this trade, but he had a relatively unfriendly salary for a handcuff to the Sadness’ presumptive number one Elliot, so it was a worthwhile addition with cap space spare.

As for the picks – the 2016 1.08 was used on Kenneth Dixon, who’s sometimes looked good, but failed to really cement himself as the Baltimore lead running back as yet, unless he does this seems like a lost pick. The 2017 pick was traded back twice, to 1.08 with the Brees, then 2.01 with the Dungeoneers, netting a fifth rounder (subsequently traded down to move up from 2.04 to 2.02) and to move up 5 places in the 4th. The final landing spot at 2.01 was used on Kareem Hunt. Hunt has talent and if either he or Dixon end up as a number one back and a good RB1/2 to complement Elliot as the Sadness’ stud then they’re clear winners here. Similarly if Diggs develops into a good receiver at a WR2 sort of level, while Bryant fails to become a clear WR1 again, then you’d have to call the Sadness winners here, however if Dixon and Hunt end up in RBBC situations, and Diggs never really breaks out of the WR3/Flex level he was in his second year, then it’s probably going to favour Dyna Hard as I just don’t think Bryant is done yet, and even as an overpaid WR2 he still offers more than three at-best flex level players. All in all there’s a lot of ifs around this, and it could easily go either way still, so I think it’s fair to move on without declaring a clear winner.

Two

  • Dynasore Losers – 2016 1.04 to Firebirds; 2016 3.04 and 2017 Round 1 Pick to Tamworth Two
  • DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 4.02 and 2017 Round 1 Pick
  • Tamworth Two – Landry, Jarvis MIA WR and 2016 3.09

There’s two different trades here, but ultimately the two go together as the Losers deal with the Firebirds was an attempt to recoup the 2017 first rounder lost in the deal for Landry as the 2017 draft seemed a lot stronger than the 2016 one did. So how did this all shake out?

The Firebirds gave up a pick valued in advance at 1.05, but which ultimately became 1.04, the same pick given up to get Landry, while the 2017 first became 1.02. As such the Losers didn’t lose spots in the draft as they ended up trading away their 2016 1.04 for what became the 2017 1.04, but because they ended up losing their own 1.02 and gaining the Firebirds 1.04 they did actually lose two spots. Still following? Good.

The Firebirds pick became Corey Coleman. So far he’s been better than Doctson and Treadwell, taken ahead of him, but worse than Shepherd and Michael Thomas who were taken after him. With only 60 points in his rookie season he’s a long way from being worth the first rounder given up to get him yet, but receivers do sometimes take time, and the Browns have a terrifyingly bad QB situation, so there’s still hope for him as that potentially improves.

The two picks the Firebirds gave up to get Coleman became Christian McCaffrey and Deion Jones. Right now there’s no two ways about this, Jones looks like a stud, scoring nearly 80 more points than Coleman in his rookie year as the top point scorer among (drafted) defensive rookies, and the 4th highest (drafted) rookie scorer (non-QB) in his class. Obviously, that’s only one season, but that’s all we have for both players so far.

As for the second half of the trade, the first given up on Landry was spent on Corey Davis. This worked out pretty well for both sides, with the Losers getting McCaffrey at #4 from their own trade into 2017 (who they would have taken at #2 anyway, given the need at RB) and T2 moving ahead of the Brees who had hoped to snag Davis at #3. It’s impossible to evaluate this up front, as Davis has yet to appear in an NFL game, but who wins that trade in the long run comes down to whether Landry or Davis ends up being the better receiver. As for the exchange of thirds… Rashard Higgins has produced little to nothing so far for T2, but does have great hair and plenty of time to come good (hopefully not a sign of things to come from Davis for them) while the 3.09 pick that went the other way was used in a package with Charles Sims to nab two picks from the Brees which were spent on DeAndre Washington and Adolphus Washington, if DeAndre Washington ends up a starter in Oakland then this part of the deal certainly favours the Losers, but that’s a big if with Beast Mode coming home to Oakland and looking to be the feature back for them. Adolphus may or may not do anything in the long run, it’s simply too early to say. If none of these three develop into viable fantasy options, then it will literally come down to the two receivers. While that’s certainly true when it comes to the long-term evaluation of the trade, it’s also fair to say that just on a fundamental level it’s almost always going to be better in a trade to get a young receiver with proven production rather than trading for a pick to draft one, no matter how highly they’re regarded – especially when that trade is for an unknown draft pick in the subsequent year’s draft.

The net of this three way trade is that the Losers bagged Christian McCaffrey, Deion Jones, Jarvis Landry and DeAndre Washington. T2 netted Corey Davis and Rashard Higgins while the Firebirds got Corey Coleman. A lot depends on how Coleman and Davis do over the next two or three years, but it’s fair to say that if McCaffrey is a bust the Losers have at worst got a pair of quality starters and for either T2 or the Firebirds to feel happy about their parts in this deal they’ll need their own high pick receivers to out-perform Landry at a minimum. It seems fair to say at this point though that the big loser looks to be the Firebirds, who’s Jedi trade tricks fail to work a third time as McCaffrey and Jones for Coleman seems heavily weighted in favour of the Losers, regardless of how Landry for Davis works out.

One

  • Here Comes The Brees –  2016 Picks 1.05 & 1.06 to Champions of the Sun; Donald, Aaron STL DT to Dynablaster Bombermen
  • Champions of the Sun – Robinson, Allen JAC WR
  • Dynablaster Bombermen – 2016 Round 1 & 4 Draft Picks and 2017 Round 1 Pick

Much like the previous example this is a three way trade essentially, but this with the Brees at the centre of it. In one sense the Brees gave up Donald to get Robinson, and got a 4th out of it but it’s a touch more complicated than that. Basically the Brees picked up a pair of firsts, spending the first of them, along with their own 2016 pick to get Allen Robinson. That’s not out of line with the prices paid for Bryant and Thomas, without giving up a young receiver in return. However that wrongly puts Thomas and Bryant (established studs with better seasons) on a par with Robinson who had one good season off the back of a high number of TD scores. Where Thomas and Bryant struggled to recapture their best form, which is probably what put them on the market, Robinson’s 2016 fall feels more like gravity pulling him back down (although he dropped further than I would have expected and should bounce back some in 2017). There’s arguments both ways on this as Robinson is also younger, had a decent seeming offence in place and had a season on the cheap before a massive extension would be due, however it was a massive pay rise as he jumped into the top tier of receivers, unlike Landry (who also commanded a first plus trade price) who finished just shy of a top tier extension cost. Ultimately, double firsts (and better ones than were paid for Bryant / Thomas) seems an slight overpay, just because Thomas and Landry didn’t quite stretch to double firsts, and I just don’t think he was established as a top tier player like Bryant and Thomas were, but it’s certainly not an indefensible one.

Meanwhile, Champions spent the 1.05 on Sterling Shepherd and traded away the 1.06 in the previously discussed Tate / Michael Thomas trade. So instead of picking Thomas and Shepherd and being clear winners in this trade they’ve ended up trading away a potential stud for a pair of at-best WR2s. That seems like a push at the moment, and will most likely come down to whether or not Robinson delivers WR1 value. If he doesn’t, his extension cost will mean the value pairing of Tate and Shepherd win out, but Shepherd’s ceiling is low with an in-decline Eli and a much-better Odell Beckham limiting his value to somewhere in the region of a WR3 and Tate looked poor for most of last year as Detroit struggled offensively so there’s plenty of scope for both sides to come away feeling unhappy about this, especially with what could have been for the Champions with Thomas.

And that brings us to the other side of this deal. While the Brees co-managers sit there wondering if they’re going to be stuck with a massively overpaid disappointment in Robinson, the Bombermen get Aaron Donald – outscoring all receivers and all other defensive players in both 2015 and 2016. I call that a win at almost any price. The two firsts the Bombermen gave up – 1.05 in 2016 and 1.08 in 2017 have gone on receivers, partly on Robinson as discussed and on Jon Ross (via a small trade up from 8 to 7), but realistically unless you end up with two WR1s out of that, then it’s hard to call it anything other than a loss, especially considering the massive salary differential between top tier receivers and a top DT (even after the Suh deal this summer). There is a light at the end of this tunnel though, and it might not even be a train. The Rams might be changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme with Jeff Fisher and Greg Williams being shown the door. If Donald ends up moved from DT to DE his point-scoring will drop significantly (just look at Kerry Hyder’s points in 2016’s league and in 2017’s following re-classification, they’ve virtually halved), and his extension cost will sky-rocket, if that happens then what looked like a rock solid win for the Bombermen becomes much, much more debatable. Ultimately it’ll still come down to how Robinson bounces back, and whether Ross is any sort of success, but they go from needing to find two top five receivers to maybe one top 10 receiver and a solid WR2. The 4th round pick in this trade I’ve mostly ignored so far, but for posterity’s sake it was spent on Braxton Miller, so it deserved to be ignored.

As a result then I’d say that while the Champions / Brees part of the trade is fairly even (with the Brees having the better potential to come out on top), the Brees are very much on the downside of the overall trade, swapping a defensive player who out-performs even the top receivers (for less money) for a player who isn’t a top receiver. While keeping to the cap doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Brees management as yet and maybe ameliorates some of that downside, it does still limit their ability to compete for the top free agents, or extend some useful players. It’s also fair to say that both the Brees and Champions GMs should feel more than a little bit rueful, as in both cases they had a chance to get both Shepherd and Thomas with those 1.05 and 1.06 picks and both teams would be in a better position if they’d just stopped after the first trade and used the picks they’d garnered.

 

Addendum There’s two teams not included in this write-up at all. That’s nothing against those teams, it’s just that I mostly found their trades fell into the ‘player-heavy’ category or the two picks for two picks category. The Dungeoneers did get a mention in one of the write-ups and pulled off some nice business, fleecing the Firebirds into giving up anything for Ryan Tannehill, the Bombermen into giving up good players for bad ones in the Carlos Hyde trade and getting the 1.02 pick for fat Eddie Lacy which they used on Amari Cooper (then wasted their own 1.03 on Kevin White, so that feels like a push to me). While that seems like a list of wins, they also overpaid the Brees for Keenan Allen’s one game a year and got absolutely destroyed by Kelkowski (the other team not mentioned) when they traded away Doug Baldwin for Stevie Johnson (oops). Kelkowski’s trades are mostly terribly dull and involve buying or selling expiring contracts at the trade deadline for 6th and 7th round picks.

2017 DynaBowl Mock Draft

League Business Mock Draft Rookie Draft No Comments

At James ‘Goody’ Goodson’s behest, he, Chris Braithwaite and Ian Kulkowski have mock drafted for their puny insignificant lives and come up with the following opening three rounds of the 2017 Dynabowl Rookie Draft.

 

1.01 1. East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pick: Leonard Fournette, JAX, RB

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: The consensus 1.01 of Dynasty Drafts, Fournette ticks more boxes for any of the RBs drafted in 2017. He has the talent and opportunity to be an immediate starter for the Dungeoneers, and will easily justify the 1.01 tag. The Jags are already building around him by drafting an OT and FB, negating any concerns over their poor RB gradings last year. Probably the easiest pick in this mock.

Opinion: Chris: pretty obvious pick with a high floor. He should get a ton of volume.

Ian: I’m happy with this pick.

 

1.02 2. Tamworth Two

Pick: Christian McCaffrey, CAR, RB

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning : No.2 pick seems to be between McCaffrey and Davis.  T2 biggest need is arguably RB (just).  Plus who wouldn’t want to pair run CmC with CAP?!  They also have pick 5 so can probably take the WR they want there.

Opinion: Goody. Interesting pick here! I’m not overly enamoured with Mccaffery’s landing spot to warrant 1.02, based on Carolina’s power offence, Cam and J-Stew hogging TD opportunities this year, plus the arrival of second round pick, and CMC double, Curtis Samuel.

Chris: I agree with this pick


1.03 3. Here Comes The Brees

Pick: Craig David, WR, Tennessee

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: Davis seems to be the consensus top WR. He was the highest drafted WR, has a clear path to being the #1 WR (in that he already basically is). He has a fairly high bust potential as there’s not a great deal of evidence that he can play against NFL quality corners, but from the combination of draft pedigree and situation, it’s difficult to ignore his upside.

Opinion: Goody: I would have probably gone for Williams here. Better red zone target and higher calibre of opposition faced, plus no/fewer injury concerns.

Ian: Exactly who I would have picked here.  Best WR available and brees have a desperate need!


1.04 4. Dynasore Losers

Pick: Mike Williams, WR, LAC

Chosen by: Goody

See my comment above for Davis. We know Slatz isn’t a Davis fan, with good reason, so he’d be thrilled to pick Williams here.

Opinion: Chris: probably a fair pick, but Williams has a fair few concerns: sub-optimal athleticism, very crowded situation and an aging QB with no succession plan in place.

Ian: Sensible pick, probably BPA.  But I just don’t think Slatz has a need at WR so I would expect him to go RB here.

 

1.05 5. Tamworth Two

Pick :John Ross, WR, CIN

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: Ah, so the two stand out WR’s have gone?!  I was convinced one of them would still be available – maybe you should consider trying to trade up for one of them?  I would say it’s between Cook, mixon & Ross at this point.  Based on need and as you took McCaffrey with pick 2 (remember?) then I’m going to go for Ross here.  Should be in a decent position opposite AJ Green with an opportunity to make a big impact early.

Opinion: Goody: I like this pick based on need. Ross will go in as WR2 with a high ceiling and good opportunity.

Chris: i think with the board like this, trading down would be a strong consideration. Given the need, Ross makes sense, but this is pretty awful value. Much like the pick of Ross in the reality.


1.06 6. Champions of the Sun

Pick: Joe Mixon, CIN RB

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: The bigger need is probably WR, but the value is probably at RB at this point. For me, Mixon is a better player on a better team, so should get more carries and more TDs, especially early on. He’s also shown less of a pattern of being a dick (although his acts of being a dick are worse).

James: This is a nice pick, although I think Cook may surprise more this year. Hill is in his final year and Bernard is coming back off injury.

Ian: Maxx doesn’t really have any pressing needs so may look to trade down if he can get value.  Otherwise I would say it’s between Cook & Mixon here.  Cook probably has the better immediate opportunity but Mixon is the better long term bet so Maxx will be fine with this.


1.07 7. The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Pick: OJ Howard, TE, TEN

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: Two picks out of three give a good opportunity for the Sadness to pick up their targets. OJ Howard fills a longer term need and will produce a likely pro-bowl appearance at some point.

Opinion: Ian: I have no issues with this pick here, Howard is a solid first round pick who should have a top tier career at TE.

Chris: I’m not a fan of Howard here. I think he’ll be a fantastic real NFL player, but i think his blocking may limit his impact as a fantasy player. Especially as he is at best the third receiving option on the team for the next year or two (and may be behind Sims and Brate). Lot of upside, but i think the other TEs have a better floor.

 

1.08 8. Here Comes The Brees

Pick: Ju Ju Smith-Schuster PIT WR

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: This is where it becomes tricky, it feels like we’re now into the 2nd tier.  Brees may be looking to trade up from here (Hello Maxx!).  Their big need remains WR so I’ll go with Ju Ju S-Schu.  I have him as the best of the 2nd tier of WR’s and he should have a decent opportunity in a good (for now) offence.

Opinion: Chris: Not a fan of him landing with the Steelers for a few reasons: he’ll never be their #1, there’s good competition at WR with Bryant, Coates and Rogers, and by the time JuJu battles his way through that competition to be the #2, Landry Jones might be the QB.

James. I can see JJSS having an Boldin type of role, he may not get you 150 yards but his solid hands and redzone presence will mean he will be a sound fantasy option.


1.09 9. The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Pick: Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: RB is a pretty big need, Dalvin Cook should be a pretty good RB. He might not be an RB1, but between Cook, the Detroit backs and Dixon, it should be possible to cobble together an RB2 and 3 most weeks.

Opinion: Ian: Manboob will be happy Cook has fallen this far after passing on him with pick 7.  Fills a big need on his roster with a rookie who should get a decent number of touches immediately.

James. Solid pick here. I’ve cooled on Cook since the combine but the Vikings have also improved their O-line and Cook will supplant Murray by end of year 1.


1.10 10. Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Pick: Alvin Kamara, RB, NO

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: RB is definitely the need here, so I could even see Kelkowski trying to trade up if they want to nab their man. A sharp drop off with the potential elite RBs leave Kelkowski having to make a judgement call. Kamara provides a bit of safety with 28 year old Ingram on their roster and a future plan to accommodate the recent arrival of Adrian Peterson.

Opinion: Ian: Finally we have a pick!!!  Kamara makes sense I guess as we already have FHTWMIJ although I would rather take hi with pick 20!

Chris: I agree that this seems high for Kamara, but i feel there’s a fairly long tier here where people can justify taking a wide range of players depending on need. Picking up two bits of the Saints backfield makes sense, and Kamara has shown some good skills. However, if we’re looking at getting the whole backfield, i think Kareem Hunt would have been a better pick.

 

2.01 11. East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pick: David Njoku, CLE TE

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: Having secured the RB he needs I think Pete goes TE here to compliment HH.  It’s a toss up between Njoku and Engram.  Both are good prospects who have landed in good situations as the likely no.1 TE on their respective teams.  I’ll go with Njoku as he seems to be the guy with most talent.

Opinion: Goody: Another real Dynasty option, Njoku will take time to settle but I see him with a better initial opportunity than Engram.

Chris: he certainly doesn’t have much competition, so should get a lot of snaps pretty quickly. My concern is that it’ll take him a couple of years to really produce, but i think Pete is ok not going all-out win-now.


2.02 12. Dynasore Losers

Pick: Kareem Hunt, RB, KC

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: Slatz loves his WRs, but there are probably enough guys there to hope that he can get three or four contributors each week. RB is looking a lot barer. I think Hunt is probably the guy with the clearest route to a starting job that’s left available, given how Ware didn’t produce much in the second half of the season.

Opinion: Ian: Fair pick.  Slatz is all about buying Running Back tickets at this point and Hunt has talent and reasonable shot of getting touches in a run heavy offence.


2.03 13. Here Comes The Brees

Pick: Jeremy McNichols, RB, TBB

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: This was such a hard pick. There are a few RBs in a tier of their own at this stage, mostly based on the chance to them becoming the primary back to a starter with contract (Doug Martin), age (Frank Gore), injury (Carlos Hyde) or ability (Ty Montgomery) issues. The Brees try to solidify their Tampa backfield with a RB who fell in the draft due to recent surgery issues. That’s not an immediate problem in Dynasty and McNichols grades well at pass protection and has a path to a starting position in a high powered offence in a year or two.

Opinion: Ian: Wouldn’t have him this high but makes sense for Brees given their monopoly on the TB running game.

Chris: i think this is way too early for McNichols. If they want to consolidate a running game, Donta Foreman for the Texans is a better player. McNichols might have been available in the next round.

Update: Goody: I didn’t realise that Martin may be suspended for the first 4 games of the season so I still stick with this pick.


2.04 14. DynaForOne Firebirds

Pick: Samaje Perine, RB, WAS

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: And so Neil finally enters the draft with back to back picks.  He has needs all over his roster but I think RB is where he has the biggest hole so I’m going Perine here.  He has a chance to be productive straight away in a good offence so can help fill a gap for Neil.

Opinion: Goody. Good pick. I probably would have had Perine higher at 2.03 if not for the Brees tentative situation with Martin linked to being cut.

Chris: Perine is in the same boat as McNichols, in that I’m not sure about his talent, but his situation is decent enough. Good upside pick.

 

2.05 15. DynaForOne Firebirds

Pick: D’onta Foreman, RB HOU

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: Even with Perine, Neil doesn’t have a lot at RB, so double dipping seems reasonable. Foreman is probably the RB with most upside and a decent floor, so i think he makes sense here.

Opinion: Ian: I might have been tempted to go WR here but Neil could definitely do with more depth at RB which Foreman could provide.


2.06 16. Champions of the Sun

Pick: Zay Jones

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: A tough one again, as there are a number of RB’s on the board with a lower floor but higher ceiling. Max could also be tempted by Mahomes, (who coincidently autocorrects to Manholes) as Big Ben is on his way out. But Jones enters a Buffalo team in dire need of a receiver. Watkins has injury concerns and there are a number of targets available with the release of Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter. I think this is a very safe pick at 2.06

Opinion: Ian: A good prospect in a decent position to contribute straight away is a good fit for maxx at this point.  Could be real value next year if the Bills move on from Watkins.

Chris: I’m not a huge fan of Jones, his college production and draft position make this pretty good value.


2.07 17. The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Pick: Deshaun Watson

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: Manboob’s quarterback situation is a total mess.  He has the unenvious task of choosing between Bridgeater, Glennon, Goff, Man Penguin Boy, Brockules and Smith each week.  I mean Wow!  That’s brutal!  So he’s definitely going to complicate things further by taking a chance on one of this year’s crop of uninspiring rookie passers. Watson is the pick because of he has the highest likelihood of making an immediate impact – I mean, no one believes BOB’s bullshit about Savage being the starter, Houston needs to win NOW!

Opinion: Chris: i like this pick. Watson’s should be the starting QB, and his combination of passing and rushing should make him a viable starter.


2.08 18. Dynablaster Bombermen

Pick: Chris Godwin, WR, TB

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: The Bombermen don’t really need a win now contributor, so they can pick a guy who has the best chance of having a WR1/2 upside. He should also work as a decent handcuff to Desean Jackson if age hits him.

Comment: Goody: Godwin could see himself come in and play the perimeter and Jackson is the wrong side of 30, so good Dynasty value here.

Ian: I can see the logic in taking a stash here as the B men don;t have any pressing needs.  They might think about breaking the seal on D here.

 

2.09 19. Live Free or Dyna Hard

Pick: Evan Engram, TE, NYG

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: I originally had Marlon Mack here, but I now pick Evan Engram who Chris would be delighted to pick. With an ageing Bennett and Gates on the DynaHard roster, Engram is the perfect Dynasty grab.

Chris: I’d be very happy if things worked out like this. Engram wouldI be excellent value here.

Ian: Probably best player available at this point so good pick for Chris


2.10 20. Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Pick: Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: Kelkowski probably need some more depth at WR, and Samuel is probably the best player available. It’s difficult to know how he’ll be used in Carolina, but if he gets used from the slot and gets return work, he should be quite a consistent scorer.

Opinion: Goody: Samuel has big play ability so Kelkowski will hope for some Tyreek Hill style matchups. Ian: I’m okay with this.  WR depth is certainly a requirement and Samuel gives us a monopoly of the 2nd tier of receivers in Carolina behind Benjamin & Olsen.

 

3.01 21. East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pick: Joe Williams, RB, SF

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: The Flanders roster is just horrible at RB depth. Hyde is likely out after this season and Williams is openly loved by Kyle Shanahanahanahan. Shanahan loves runners who can go outside and Williams excelled at that in College. He could be RB1 at the 49ers at the end of the year so this represents great value.

Opinion: Ian: RB is definitely the major need for Pete so Williams works here as a backup and eventual successor to Hyde.

Chris: This is a decent pick. Works as a handcuff to Hyde and a player with potential in his own right.


3.02 22. Dynasore Losers

Pick:Myles Garrett, DE, CLE

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: With offensive talent thinning out at this point I think Saltz will be happy the best defensive option in the draft has fallen this far.  With his 3 top DE’s in their final year this pick will help him for years to come.

Opinion: Goody: I could see Slatz staying with offence. If there is a position he is definitely stacked in, its DE, and he’s got such a generous salary cushion he doesn’t really need to worry about renewals. I’d have probably said that Slatz goes for someone like Carlos Henderson as a long term replacement for Sanders, or trade down a few spots for a bigger defensive need – LB, so maybe Reddick or Foster.

Chris: I think this is a good spot for Garrett, but I’m not sure Slatz would take him. Even if Quinn moves to LB, the 3 guys he has at DE are fine for this year.

 

3.03 23. Here Comes The Brees

Pick: Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: Even with Davis, the Brees probably still need a WR, preferably one with WR1 upside. Kupp probably has the clearest route to that of the people left, due mainly to lack of competition.

Opinion: Goody: I think ‘doubling-down’ here for the Brees makes really good sense and could leave them with the primary target on team with a QB looking for a safe target.

Ian: Agree with the others here, Brees need to be all in on WR and Kupp is about the best option still available.


3.04 24. DynaForOne Firebirds

Pick: Marlon Mack, RB, Ind

Chosen by: Goody

Reasoning: Arguably RB and DE was a massive need for the Firebirds coming into this draft. CJ Anderson will now share carries with Charles, Blount is without a team, Mathews is likely to be dropped, and Rawls will share backfield duties with ‘obese mode’ Eddie Lacy. It doesn’t look great and they’ve only effectively picked up Foreman and Perine so far. There is also a need for a DE, but most evidence suggests that rookie DEs are hit and miss. The 2017 class is regarded as a good and deep one, but not great in relation to potential elite (Garrett). Even Garrett, if he was available now, only picked up 3 of his sacks against a NFL based O-line. In this case, Barnett, who picked up 16 of his sacks against similar opposition, could be an acceptable pick. Therefore, Firebirds may think they can pick up some DE depth later on with someone like Barnett, McKinley or Charlton. Now the case for the prosecution, Mack is a good receiver and has high home run potential. Gore is old. So very old. With the Firebirds a bit away from ‘win now’, getting a potential starting RB with the 24th pick is immense value. Come 2018, they may have some of their 3 RBs hit and become competitive.

Opinion: Ian: This is now Neil’s 3rd RB of the draft after taking Perine & Foreman in the 1st so he’s certainly going all out to address his major need.  I might have gone WR here instead but as a third round pick in his own right Mack is okay.


3.05 25. Tamworth Two

Pick:Rueben Foster, LB SF

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: Time for T2 to start addressing their defensive needs.  Foster is the best LB available and will be an immediate contributor in San Francisco so will continue to build on T2’s good young LB core.

Opinion: Chris: i think this is a solid pick. I think T2 need an elite defensive player. My only quibble is whether DE is a bigger need, but Foster might be the best defensive player available and T2’s LBs have a lot of question marks.

Goody. Foster is an elite prospect but I’m concerned by his injury, and recent failed surgery. There is also chat about a number of hidden concussions at College, plus, I’m all for hydration, but Foster takes it too far.

 

3.06 26. Champions of the Sun

Pick: Pat Mahomes QB, KC

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: CotS need a QB for when Big Ben retires, which could easily happen next year. Despite being the 2nd QB picked in the NFL draft, Mahomes has a better fantasy outlook than Trubisky due to his athleticism, his head coach and the fact he should have a chance to learn for at least a year, rather than being thrown in straight away.

Opinion: Goody:A solid gamble, Mahomes is likely to have a very high ceiling but will have to learn a much more complex playback. Andy Reid has a good track record of elite QBs so Max could get a diamond here.

Ian: I would have considered a QB in R2 for Maxxx so am fine with taking one here.  With a year of Rapistberger remaining Maxx has no immediate need so P Homes is the perfect development opportunity.

 

3.07 27. The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Pick: Jonathan Allen, DT. WAS

Chosen by: Goody.

Reasoning: With a need at DT, the Sadness Pick the best one on the board, who is in a great landing spot at Washington.

Opinon: Ian: Having addressed his need at RB & QB and taken Howard as a potential superstar Manboob has plenty of options here.Williams and Conner are still available for added RB depth and another QB ticket wouldn’t hurt.  However, I agree there are needs in the D also.  Davis would be an option here at LB but DT as arguably the more pressing need so Allen makes sense as the best DT in the draft (he may however end up as a DE).

Chris: I think Allen will be a great player. But I think he’ll be a DE, which will hurt his value.

 

3.08 28. Dynablaster Bombermen

Pick:Adam Shaheen. TE CHI

Chosen by: Ian

Reasoning: With no immediate pressing needs Bendy has the luxury of taking the best player available.  I have no clue who that is at this stage so I’ll go with Shaheeeeen.  There’s not much ahead of him in Chicago (although that’s not saying much) and there’s a good development opportunity here behind Bendy’s existing starting TE’s.

Comment: Goody: I think this is a bit early for the remaining TEs, who drop off after the 3 main guys. I’d have probably seen a bit more value in going defence, especially at LB.

Chris: I agree it’s early for Shaheen, but i think if a team wanted a TE at this stage and took Gerald Everett, that might be defendable

   

3.09 29. Live Free or Dyna Hard

Pick: Haasan Reddick, ARI, LB

Chosen by Goody.

Reasoning: DynaHard have an opportunity to pick someone up who has been identified as an athletic specimen, albeit no experience at playing ILB. Although the jury is still out if Reddick will be able to develop this way, Chris may see this as a pretty low risk appointment.

Opinion: Chris: Reddick is a pretty nice pick. I’m not sure LB is a big need for me though, with Miller, Ragland and Jatavis Brown on board for the next 2 years. But he does seem like BPA at this point. Apart from the next guy…

3.10 30. Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Pick: Solomon Thomas, DE, SF

Chosen by: Chris

Reasoning: Thomas is the clear BPA here in my opinion. He might not get gaudy sack numbers like Garrett, but his ability against the run should give him a lot of tackles and TFLs, so he should be a fairly consistent scorer. Kelkowski don’t have a need at DE, but Thomas and Bosa would make them set at the position for the long term.

Opinion: Goody: Solid pick here. No complaints from me.

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