A 2022 Preview

Previews Stat Attacks Uncategorized No Comments

Some years ago Ian did a preview looking at the ADP of the players on each team. It’s an interesting idea – because we’re a dynasty league teams will be in different places of a cycle – and the idea was to look at how teams were set up to win now. So I thought I’d repeat it, but with a twist.

In Ian’s analysis he used ADP, but ADP has a couple of problems to my mind – we’re not a redraft league, so we don’t have picks for all players, only rookies, and they can’t be easily equated to salaries. Picks assume an equal value between 1 and 2, 2 and 3 and so on. But if you have a clear top two with a wafer thin difference in value and then a gap to a tier with players 3-5 then this isn’t really reflected. ADP theoretically smooths this a little, as players 1 and 2 should have ADPs around 1.5 and 3-5 around 4, but it still retains the core problem of valuing each pick 1 more than the one before, so the gap between 1.5 and 4 is still an arbitrary 2.5 picks with no recognition that a pick value isn’t a flat amount.

AAV on the other hand says how much of a fixed budget someone is willing to spend on a player. So the difference between 1 and 2 in that ranking could be a couple of cents, while 3-5 is more like a couple of dollars. Also, critically, it’s a currency we use for our salary cap, so it opens up some additional fun options.

Whether it’s ADP or AAV, both methodologies have some similar problems, that I’ll just touch on:
– Not every league runs IDP, and many that do won’t have a full defensive, or will use different defensive scoring. So defensive value isn’t really indicative in the way that offensive is. An example of this, is that only 2 of the top 10 CBs by ADP are even rostered in our league. Because only two CBs have ADP values.
– 2QB leagues are increasingly popular, these inflate the value of QBs significantly, but they do so across the board, so it should balance out on a team-by-team comparison. It does however mean that AAV values for QBs are inflated and so comparison of salary to AAV is less useful at this position.

Anyway, enough of the boring stuff, let’s have a look at how it shakes out.

I could list top AAV by position, but easier just to link you to the AAV info in MFL (note, this link is correct, the one on the MFL homepage is for 2021).

You can access the googledoc with all the data in here, it is a live doc, pulling via the API, so figures may not exactly match.

So, onto the good stuff, who’s got the most valuable team?

Team Value Offense Value
Dyna Hard $905.79 $857.71
Kelkowski $768.82 $707.27
Brees $720.65 $671.62
Champions $705.15 $664.05
Losers $647.24 $634.16
Sadness $638.76 $610.51
Bombermen $579.40 $524.22
The Infamous Two $557.52 $494.21
Dungeoneers $557.19 $548.19
Hawkeman $449.11 $421.77

Let’s start with a positive – the average spend in the dynabowl on offence is $400.20 so I adjusted AAV’s for offence based on that, and everyone’s AAV beats that baseline value, so everyone’s got some value there. Rookie contracts help a lot with that, for example Breece Hall(!) is somehow the top AAV on MFL, and his 20 dollar salary for this year against his AAV is 31 (before rescaling to the baseline of $400), so his salary to AAV rating is 944%. More on that sort of thing in a bit.

Chris is a clear leader here, lead by a receiver group with a total AAV of almost 400 on their own ($397.60), by far the most valuable group in the league, ahead of Ben’s receivers ($308.95). Neil’s bottom placed ranking can largely be traced to this same position group as his receivers value up at only $102.41, significantly behind the next worst in Mike ($174.93) and the Commish ($168.28).

The top RB group belongs to Ian ($280.18) but there’s a cluster of closely matched 2nd placed groups of Pete ($234.88), Chris ($234.52) and Mike ($231.08) and Ben ($225.40). People in auction drafts just don’t like Jonathan Taylor as much as you’d think. The lowest valued RB groups belong to T2 ($122.14) and the Commish ($137.51).

Ian, Pete and Neil have more valuable RB groups than WR groups, where for everyone else it’s the reverse.

It’s closer in the QB group – Max at $158.36 has the most valuable group, just ahead of the Losers ($153.32) and Chris ($149.40). While the Commish has the most valuable TE group ($98.01). While there’s a couple of others who are close, Neil is the only GM who’s QB group is more valuable that one of the two big skill position groups (his aforementioned WR group). Unsurprisingly, everyone’s TEs are their least valuable group.

Defence, as previously alluded to, receives an average spend of $165 in salary. In AAV, the highest total defensive value belonged to T2 at $62. So, yeah, that pretty much makes the point about IDP in our league vs others. The figures are all in the sheet, but I’m not going to waste time on trying to draw any conclusions.

So far, so good. But you can’t and won’t play all these players. So let’s go deeper. What about the starting line-ups?Based on a line-up of 1QB, 3RBs, 4WRs how do the teams value up? (figures rounded)

Team Starters QB RB WR TE
Dyna Hard $460 $68 $127 $215 $50
Kelkowski $416 $78 $174 $149 $15
Brees $440 $40 $147 $230 $23
Champions $427 $56 $140 $215 $14
Losers $431 $80 $144 $188 $19
Sadness $445 $62 $196 $128 $59
Bombermen $360 $85 $110 $120 $45
Tamworth Two $379 $45 $100 $196 $37
Dungeoneers $453 $58 $219 $166 $11
Hawkeman $300 $55 $135 $84 $26

What this highlights is how depth plays a part in total value. Chris’s WR group ($215) is not just not miles ahead now, it’s not even ahead. While it’s still a strong group (stars and scrubs is a legit strategy in Auction drafts), it’s only joint second alongside Max and behind Ben ($230). The gap from these three to 4th and 5th is only 20 dollars too.

Even more of a drop than Chris’ WRs are Ian’s RBs drop from the highest value group to third, behind Mike ($196) and Pete ($219). Who’ve topped the last two drafts, showing that rookie value.

Meanwhile, in terms of overall value… it’s actually pretty tight: Chris leads at 460, but 7 teams are above 414 dollars (90% of Chris’ value). Only Neil, once again let down by his receivers, T2 and the Commish are not in this group.

As I mentioned earlier, one big difference between ADP and AAV is that AAV allows us to compare what someone would pay for someone this year, with what we are paying for someone this year, so we can look at value – both best and worst – in this case, expressed in terms of salary as a percentage of AAV (i.e. lower is better value)

Team Value RB value WR value
Squad Starters Starters Starters
Dyna Hard 51.2% 36.7% 52.7% 37.1%
Kelkowski 59.4% 56.5% 34.0% 92.1%
Brees 47.6% 36.1% 29.2% 53.7%
Champions 47.7% 40.1% 49.8% 45.4%
Losers 58.3% 53.4% 62.3% 78.5%
Sadness 82.9% 90.9% 79.7% 120.6%
Bombermen 67.0% 49.9% 47.1% 84.4%
Tamworth Two 82.4% 84.4% 110.5% 65.9%
Dungeoneers 87.3% 72.8% 20.1% 163.4%
Hawkeman 93.2% 85.3% 79.4% 127.9%

OK, I’m going to start to try and say less as this is already quite long, but some highlights… T2 are the only team paying over 100% of their AAV for their RBs. It’s tough to do, but congrats. Benefitting from back to back 1st picks spent on RBs, the dungeoneers are paying a league-low 20.1%.
At receiver the opposite is true, the dungeoneers are paying a whopping 163.4% of the market values of their receiver. The Sadness are also paying over the odds at receiver and so are the Hurricanes, tough break when they’ve such a low value, but with others where you might be overpaying one or two individuals and driving total salary up (say hello DeAndre Hopkins) in Neil’s case it’s more that people don’t value what he has, so any sort of salary looks like an overpay.
Lastly, the Dungeoneers (87.3%) and Hurricanes (93.2%), led by those high cost receiver groups have the least discount on their offensive squad, though neither is overpaying vs AAV overall. Pete’s cheaper starting group (72.8%) means that he drops out of the top two for starters, replaced by the Sadness who go straight to number one with a bullet (90.9%).

At the other end of the scale, The Brees have the best value overall group and starting group just ahead of Chris by 0.6% for starters, while the Champions are only 0.1% behind in the total offence.

The two things that seem to have the biggest impacts on this are having young receivers who’ve got a good season or two under their belt but are, still on their rookie deal, (Lamb, Chase, Jefferson) or box-fresh rookie RBs (Harris, Walker). Although, as this last table shows, the best value is not always where you’d expect it (in fact, it almost never is):

Team MVP! MVP! MVP! Least Valuable Player
Dyna Hard Kenny Pickett Jalen Raegor
Kelkowski Jalen Hurts Curtis Samuel
Brees Trey Hendrickson Darius Slayton
Champions Jaquan Brisker(!) Quintez Cephus
Losers Justin Herbert Anthony Schwartz
Sadness Cole Holcomb Trey Sermon
Bombermen Demarcus Lawrence DJ Chark (doo doo do do do do)
Tamworth Two Justin Jefferson Odell Beckham
Dungeoneers Joe Burrow DeAndre Hopkins
Hawkeman Malik Willis N’Keal Harry

Of course, value is ultimately a measure of what people are willing to pay for a player, it’s not indicative of how they’ll actually perform. The wisdom of the crowd has C-Mac’s one working hamstring as a top two pick by ADP and the highest value player overall (in PPR formats), so I’m not sure how far to trust it anyway, but if nothing else, it offers an interesting insight into who’s got what would be considered the ‘best’ teams at this point and the best position groups. Meanwhile, should we pass a emergency rule that Chris and Neil should swap receiver groups?

The 2022 Dynabowl Draft Exit Survey

Rookie Draft Survey No Comments

This exit survey was run by Chris Braithwaite, GM of Dyna Hard. I am certain that everything shown in this report is exactly right and hasn’t been twisted in any way, shape or form. Anyway, onwards…

Welcome to the 100% accurate assessment of the Dynabowl draft. Why even bother playing the games after this when we know exactly how good all of these players are going to be, right?

We’ll start out simple: average scores per team. There were two teams way out in front, with an average of 7.3. Max takes it by a nose, 7.33 to 7.25, over Chris. That’s especially impressive given Max’s admission that “I genuinely don’t know who any of the players are.” Ignorance is evidently bliss. Max was the only person to garner a 10 (apart from Goody trying to sneak a 10 in for himself), but Chris was the only person where every vote was 6 or higher. So there’s that. It’s then a drop of 0.9 down to Pete in 3rd at an average of 6.4. So lets just skip right to the bottom, where Benj is sitting with a score of 4.9, just behind Goody’s 5.0. And lets take a moment to give credit to Neil, who was the only person who managed to have his drafted rated as a 1 and yet had enough people who liked his draft to get him to a solid mid-table finish. Congrats?!

TeamRankAverageMaxMin
Max17.3105
Chris27.396
Pete36.475
Mike46.175
Neil55.881
Ian65.583
Ben & Stew7=5.374
Slatz7=5.382
Goody85.082
Benj94.973

The overall average was 5.9, so if your score was below that, you did badly. But good work overall everyone on using a reasonable scoring scale, rather than the actual NFL draft grades which seem to have A- as a fail.

Comments

Enough with the numbers, lets get to the comments. We’ll go in the same order as the rankings for this draft, so the comments get progressively worse. Lets not make this thing too cheerful, right?

Max

  • Okay
  • I like quite a few if them. Good effort
  • Loved this draft. Burks and Williams were my top 2 WRs, Pickens could easily be in there to were it not for the character concerns. He could easily have got 3 WR1s here. Generally liked the value throughout and it was difficult to pick anyone as a bust.
  • Had the capital to get some high end talent and didn’t make any boneheaded picks with it. However, endorsed domestic abuse, so swings and roundabouts.
  • Good solid team bolstering
  • Really like most of this draft, hard to be critical. Jameson Williams might be the best receiver in the draft (Watson has a higher ceiling, but way more variability). If Burks is Brown 2.0 as suggested then that’s another win at 4.

Chris

  • Some good early picks but no one after that
  • Decent. I like most of them
  • I like the receivers drafted and could be shrewd value with Pickett
  • A lot of players I had on my list. He was picking after me so maybe this should have been my draft?
  • Solid as usual
  • I don’t like Olave because he doesn’t match up physically well against anyone and I’m not sure how often even a mediocre corner will give him a free release. In space he’s Edelman-esque though. I also am very down on the whole Saints offence. Wan’Dale Robinson I like there, White I’d hoped to get and Skyy Moore could be great, although I think he’s risen a bit too high in fantasy/NFL drafts to be the player I liked as a sleeper pre-draft.

And here’s what Chris thought: “I am still not super happy with picking Moore – my rankings loved him so I just decided to trust them. Was disappointed not to get more defensive players, but I liked the couple I got.”

Pete

  • Solid and predictable
  • Hall and Watson should be fine. The rest?
  • I feel like it’s a good mix of solid chalky players (Hall, Bell) who should have a good floor and then boom/bust guys like Watson and Andersen. I liked him double dipping at CB for 2 elite prospects – they still seemed like OK value, which isn’t usually the case with the 1st CB. His team is notably better after the draft than it was before.
  • Steady
  • Wadda lodda corners.
  • It hinges heavily on Watson – Hall will be what he’ll be. Either a solid committee back who ends up mid-tier, or a clear win, but he’s the #1 pick, generally you’re going to get something there barring unforeseen things like injuries. Watson’s ceiling is right up there. If you somehow hit on the best WR in this class and the best RB, then it’s a big win.

Here’s what Pete had to say for himself: “This wonderful human being deserves all the success that is undoubtedly coming his way.”

Mike

  • Started well and then tailed off with some average picks
  • Not normally a fan of so much d early but I like what boob has done
  • Good draft capital but not sure he got any stars out of it. The defensive players are all good, but I don’t think any are going to turn his team into a contender and Walker doesn’t feel like he has top 5 upside. Threw a lot of interesting darts in the middle rounds though.
  • Quay Walker will “bust” only in fantasy terms. He’ll likely work well at run stopping but I don’t see him getting the kind of plays you need at LB to be successful in our league. Volume drafting is probably sensible to try to turn the team around. The more darts the better.
  • Embrace the D
  • Austin is nice there as an upside guy, though he’s tiny. I think the Steelers might be a bit more creative in his use than the Seahawks with Eskridge. I love the Hamilton pick and Ebikete could be awesome, always bet on athleticism in that position. And Lloyd could be Isaiah Simmons or Micah Parsons… Walker, I get, and I wouldn’t have passed on him at 3 – it’s more about the shallowness of the draft in that position than talent. But not much else to get excited about.

Mike’s fairly tepid assessment was “Lot of mid round talent reflecting lots of mid round picks.”

Neil

  • First two picks great, not much to shout about after then
  • Awful. Don’t like any of these picks
  • Cook felt like a major reach. Hutchinson is good but propped up by his draft capital in a super weak class. Did good work in the middle rounds though – I feel like everyone from Hutchinson to Tindall has a legit shot to be their team’s #1 at their position. And Snoop Conner has a realistic path to relevance.
  • Good value later in the draft, although Cook felt like a bit of a reach at the top
  • Nothing silly. Some players who will contribute. But I’m hardly tumescent reviewing it.
  • Decent
  • I felt Cook was bad value at 8/9 – I understood why he was mocked there because of the RB class being shallow – but to take him at 5 with Williams and Wilson or even Moore, Watson and Olave still there feels like a massively wasted pick for a guy who seems like he’s probably somewhere between Cole Beasley and JD McKissick. Willis has a massive upside if he develops enough as a passer to start.

Ian

  • Not many high picks but some good quality lower down
  • Didn’t have too much capital in the end, but did ok with it. Spiller was great value, I thought he’d go a round earlier (and he would have if Goody hadn’t made a big offer). Taking 3 TEs feels a bit wasteful to me though, and I can’t see how Dulcich becomes fantasy relevant in that offense – it’s just so crowded.
  • Got some good late round value with players falling to them. Could make up for a lack of early picks
  • Literally no one I was thinking about taking.
  • Not a lot to work with, but flags fly forever! Oooo Rah!
  • He traded all his picks to win. And won. In that sense it’s a 10/10. If we’re purely judging on picks made… they’re pretty bad picks, but what do you expect with so few and so few early.

Neil took the Max approach here: “Who are these guys.”

Ben and Stew

  • Okay at first, but Karlaftis was a reach
  • Reasonable solid effort without being spectacular
  • I loved Wilson as a prospect, so they’ve done well there. I wasn’t a big fan of Davis-Price, but can’t argue with the upside and he was quite cheap. Hated the Karlaftis pick though, I think he’s going to be one of those decent NFL guys but who maxes out at about 8 sacks. So not a fan there. They tend to do well with defensive players though.
  • Boom-bust profile
  • Pretty by the book. Nothing to get wildly excited about but nothing which makes me want to vomit in my mouth. Which is a nice change.
  • Good competent draft in a tough spot (6)
  • This draft comes down to Wilson really. And it’s really hard to know how good he’ll be if Zach Wilson continues his trend of trying to make Nathan Peterman look good retrospectively. Karlaftis should be fine, if not special – maybe in a Spags defence with his ears pinned back he might be more, but I’m not sure how long Spags will be around there. Pierce is an X factor, ridiculous athletic talent with true #1 ceiling, but he’s so raw he’s basically unprepared sushi.

Slatz

  • Love the first 5 picks
  • Don’t like it at all. Lots of reaches
  • I was comparatively low on London and Thibodeaux so I expect to be an outlier here. And I love Davis, but don’t think a rookie DT who needs a tonne of projection to be relevant in the NFL is worth a 3rd. I feel like there’s a lot of guys who will stick around the roster, I don’t think there are many who will be stars. Honestly, Harris is the only guy I think he got who he didn’t overdraft.
  • Seemed to know the guys he wanted to draft and took them
  • It’s obviously the best draft. Obviously. Because everyone else took the wrong players, which means he must have got the right ones.
  • Reasonable  draft for the awkward tweener drafting position

Here’s what Slatz had to say: “10/10 of course. Seriously though, passing on White to take Thibodeaux was a tough call, and needs to work out as RB was a real need. Davis is a gamble some will hate, but I love a guy like that and I had to hold myself back from taking him in the second, so for me I feel like that pick was value.”

Goody

  • Pretty rubbish
  • I didn’t like any of their picks bar Dotson (and didn’t really like the trade for him). Pierce and Allgeier feel like desperation picks for a win now team, and Asamoah isn’t going to contribute for at least a year, if not two. Otton might be decent, but that’s about it.
  • Decent value with limited picks
  • Lots of reaching. A number of players I wouldn’t have minded getting 2-5 rounds later. Not to my taste. But he’s happy and that’s nice.
  • The drive to succeed within the season leaves his drafts a bit threadbare.
  • Both Allgeier and Pierce represent the same thing – dice rolls on opportunity/volume with players of limited draft capital and questionable efficacy in bad situations. If both work out the value question goes out the window. If both fail then this looks pretty bleak. Both seem about as likely?

Here’s what Goody had to say: “The best draft ever.”

Benj

  • Average at best.
  • Too d heavy early on for me. Not many picks I liked
  • Didn’t have too much capital, but didn’t do much with it. I wasn’t a fan of Dean and most of the other players feel like they’ve got limited upside.
  • I like the mid round skill players. Be interested to see how the DTs turn out
  • Similar ignore-the-draft team building strategy to Goody. Comment withheld.
  • Hard to judge properly on someone who traded away high picks, without valuing in what was gained vs what could have been gained. Dean looks like a steal, but Philly have been a graveyard for LBs. If he balls out (and he has the talent to be Roquan Smith) that’s a really good spot to have grabbed him.

And here’s what Benj had to say: “Didn’t have a first, traded out of the second, didn’t stupidly reach for anyone, got some of the players I hoped for, but was patient and, again, didn’t stupidly reach for anyone I’d earmarked. I’m pretty happy that I got some contributors. I may not have a star in there but I think it gives me some solid depth.”

Trades

While we’re jumping all over the map, lets continue the trend and look at the trades that happened during the draft. This is what we thought, from least balanced trade to most balanced (and there’s a bit of judgement in this):

  1. Goody gets 2022 pick 20 (Jahan Dotson). Ian gets Jalen Hurts, Allen Lazard. (6 favouring Ian, 3 saying even.).
  2. Goody gets Tyler Lockett, 2022 pick 19 (Tyler Allgeier), 2023 Round 6 pick. Chris gets Mike Evans, Denzel Ward. (5 favouring Chris, 3 saying even, 1 favouring Goody)
  3. Ben and Stew get picks 69 (Sam Howell) and 99 (Daniel Bellinger). Chris gets pick 66 (Tyler Badie).  (4 favouring Chris, 4 saying even, 1 favouring Ben and Stew. And I think I was that one).
  4. Slatz gets 2022 pick 25 (Jalen Tolbert). Neil gets Fred Warner. (4 favouring Neil, 3 saying even, 1 favouring Slatz.
  5. Neil gets picks 93 (Myjai Sanders) and 113 (Jalen Nailor). Slatz gets pick 75 (Daxton Hill). (4 saying even, 3 favouring Slatz, 1 favouring Neil)
  6. Goody gets picks 17 (Dameon Pierce) and 47 (Brian Asamoah). Benj gets pick 28 (Jermaine Johnson), 38 (Romeo Doubs) and 39 (Demarvin Leal). (5 saying even, 2 favouring Benj, 2 favouring Goody – perfectly balanced)

I’ll try something as a summary: a net positive rating for all these trades by team. So you get +1 for each vote saying you won a trade and -1 for each vote saying your lost a trade.

  1. Chris: +7
  2. Iran: +6
  3. Neil: +1
  4. Benj: 0
  5. Slatz: -1
  6. Ben and Stew: -3
  7. Goody: -10

Max, Pete and Mike didn’t make any trades. Benj just made the one perfectly balanced trade. I guess there should be a way to get a bit more nuance here: Neil and Slatz only traded with each other, but I feel like Neil winning a trade involving a 3rd round pick and then losing a trade for an 8th round pick doesn’t really cancel out as much as this table says. And then, does Ben and Stew losing a trade for a 7th round pick really matter? But I can’t be bothered trying to work that out – the data is above if anyone fancies it. But anyway, we all agreed: Goody’s trades were bad, Chris and Iran’s were good.

Individual drafts

I’ll just do these in the order I listed teams in the survey. I’ll say that is so this doesn’t spiral into relentless negativity, but really its just cos its easier for me. For all of these, I’ll just list any answer which got more than 1 vote.

Pete

Best player

  • Breece Hall (7)

Best value:

  • David Ojabo (4)
  • Troy Andersen (3)

Worst value:

  • Christian Watson (3)
  • David Bell (3)
  • Troy Andersen (2)

Bust:

  • Christian Watson (4)
  • David Bell (3)

Sleeper

  • Sauce Gardner (3)
  • Bryan Cook (3)
  • Terrel Bernard (2)

It seems we were content with Breece Hall as the consensus number 1, and not at all high on Christian Watson or David Bell. So I guess we’ll find out if Pete knows better than the rest of us. Andersen getting support as both best value and worst value is fun, I love a polarising prospect.

Ben and Stew

Best player

  • Garrett Wilson (7)

Best value:

  • Ty Davis-Price (3)
  • Garrett Wilson (2)
  • Alec Pierce (2)

Worst value:

  • George Karlafits (5)
  • Sam Howell (3)

Bust:

  • Ty Davis-Price (5)
  • George Karlaftis (3)

Sleeper

  • Velus Jones (5)
  • Daniel Bellinger (2)

So safe to say Ty Davis-Price is a polarising guy. 3 calling him best value, 5 calling him a bust. Same with Karlaftis – not too many calling him a bust, but general agreement that he was bad value.

Goody

Best player

  • Jahan Dotson (5)

Best value:

  • Cade Otton (3)
  • Brian Asamoah (2)
  • Jahan Dotson (2)

Worst value:

  • Tyler Allgeier (3)
  • Dameon Pierce (2)
  • Jordan Stout (2)

Bust:

  • Tyler Allgeier (4)
  • Dameon Pierce (3)
  • Jahan Dotson (2)

Sleeper

  • Cade Otton (7)

Its probably not a good sign when you trade up for 2 RBs, and both get support as worst value or a bust. But then Dotson was overwhelmingly seen as the best player and still also garnered support as worst value and a bust too. Basically, everyone liked Cade Otton and that’s about it.

Mike

Best player

  • Kenneth Walker (4)
  • Devin Lloyd (3)
  • Quay Walker (2)

Best value:

  • Trey McBride (3)
  • Calvin Austin (2)

Worst value:

  • Quay Walker (6)

Bust:

  • Kenneth Walker (4)
  • Quay Walker (3)
  • Kyle Hamilton (2)

Sleeper

  • Phidarian Mathis (3)
  • Damone Clark (2)
  • Trent McDuffie (2)

So people either loved or hated Kenneth Walker – he’s either the best player or he’s a bust. Similar for Quay Walker, except that everyone thought he was overvalued too.

Slatz

Best player

  • Drake London (6)
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (2)

Best value:

  • Jalen Tolbert (4)
  • Jordan Davis (2)
  • Christian Harris (2)

Worst value:

  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (3)
  • Jordan Davis (2)
  • Jalen Tolbert (2)

Bust:

  • Jalen Tolbert (5)
  • Jordan Davis (3)         

Sleeper

  • Daxton Hill (4)
  • Matt Corral (2)
  • Ty Chandler (2)

We generally seemed happy that Drake London was a perfectly fine pick in the 1st, and then it got polarising: Thibodeaux got support as best player and worst value; Jordan Davis got support as best value, worst value and bust; Jalen Tolbert was either best value or a bust. Basically, we have no fucking clue what is going on here, which is no different from any other team’s draft.

Neil

Best player

  • James Cook (5)

Best value:

  • Malik Willis (3)
  • James Cook (2)
  • Channing Tindall (2)

Worst value:

  • James Cook (3)
  • Aidan Hutchinson (2)
  • John Metchie (2)

Bust:

  • Malik Willis (3)
  • Aidan Hutchinson (3)
  • John Metchie (2)

Sleeper

  • Jeremy Ruckert (3)
  • Snoop Cooner (3)

Neil’s draft was weirdly polarising. It had the biggest range of overall ratings, and it also had an unusual spread of best value, worst value and busts. Basically, most people found something to like about Neil’s draft and something to hate too. And no one liked or hated the same players. So this will be an interesting one to see how it plays out in future years.

Benj

Best player

  • Nakobe Dean (7)
  • Jermaine Johnson (2)

Best value:

  • Romeo Doubs (3)
  • Nakobe Dean (2)
  • Tyquan Thornton (2)

Worst value:

  • Nakobe Dean (2)
  • Jermaine Johnson (2)
  • Logan Hall (2)

Bust:

  • Logan Hall (4)
  • Nakobe Dean (2)
  • Jermaine Johnson (2)

Sleeper

  • Desmond Ridder (3)
  • Charlie Kolar (3)
  • Kingsley Enagbare (2)

I guess some of us really liked Nakobe Dean (best value) and some didn’t (Bust, worst value), but we generally thought he was the best of a bad bunch. And then we didn’t really like Logan Hall.

Max

Best player

  • Jameson Williams (5)
  • Treylon Burks (2)
  • George Pickens (2)

Best value:

  • Jameson Williams (3)
  • George Pickens (2)
  • Brian Robinson (2)

Worst value:

  • Travon Walker (2)
  • Brian Robinson (2)

Bust:

  • Travon Walker (5)
  • Treylon Burks (2)
  • George Pickens (2)

Sleeper

  • Isiah Pacheco (3)
  • Kyle Phillips (2)
  • Brandon Smith (2)

Max’s best player results are fun, especially combined with the bust results, and probably drove his high ratings. The fact that Williams was overwhelmingly more popular than Burks but was picked quite a lot later is interesting. The fact that some people still loved Pickens over both is also interesting. And then the fact that most people thought Travon Walker would be a bust over any of them is interesting too. Although that last bit might just be a bit of noise driven by people not liking Walker as a prospect.

We also seemed to love Jameson Williams – 5 people called him the best pick, 3 called him the best value (as pick 7) and no one called him most likely to bust. So that’s interesting.

Iran

Best player

  • Isaiah Spiller (6)

Best value:

  • Isaiah Spiller (6)

Worst value:

  • Hassan Haskins (3)
  • Isaiah Spiller (2)
  • Greg Dulcich (2)

Bust:

  • Danny Gray (3)
  • Isaiah Spiller (2)
  • Hassan Haskins (2)
  • Greg Dulcich (2)

Sleeper

  • Chad Muma (5)
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo (2)

I wasn’t sure whether to include 4 players in the bust rankings for Ian simply because the 4th player was the 70th pick. Spiller being the overwhelming favourite player from this class, and then no real consensus on worst value or bust, seems to say that we basically liked the Spiller pick but not much else. Except Chad Muma. We liked the value there. 2/9 rated Spiller’s lack of speed as the pre-draft story they actually factored in when picking.

Chris

Best player

  • Skyy Moore (4)
  • Chris Olave (3)

Best value:

  • Rachaad White (4)
  • Wan’Dale Robinson (2)

Worst value:

  • Wan’Dale Robinson (3)
  • Skyy Moore (2)
  • Rachaad White (2)

Bust:

  • Wan’Dale Robinson (6)

Sleeper

  • Kaiir Elam (4)
  • Malcolm Rodriguez (3)
  • Isaiah Likely (2)

Seems like a couple of people liked Wan’Dale Robinson as good value, but most people thought he was a big reach. Rachaad White feels like the interesting one here, getting votes at best value and worst value. Someone also voted for Isaiah Likely at pick 119 as my worst value, which feels like they either thought I had a hell of a draft or didn’t read the question.

The sleeper picks were mildly interesting: Pickett got a vote as best value, but no picks as a sleeper. People did care about Pickett’s tiny hands – 4/9 said that was the pre-draft storyline they actually considered when making picks.

Random draft bits and pieces

There wasn’t any consensus on the biggest surprise. And some disagreement, between “defensive reaches so early in the second” and “it being so offense heavy.” The other comments were:

  • How far veluss Jones fell. The slating did for him. Bargain
  • Cook going top 5
  • No QBs picked for ages
  • That I didn’t excessively reach for anyone.
  • Goody blowing up his team for two mediocre RBs

There also wasn’t consensus on the best name. Sauce Gardner got 1.5 votes, but other than that there was only one vote per player: Smoke Monday, C Otton, Tyler Baddie (sic), Romeo Doubs, Snoop Conner, Ty Fryfogle and ZaQuandre White. Lets hope next year is better. A quick skim of a consensus board seems to think it might be: Henry To’oto’o, Habakkuk Baldonado are both in the top 50.

The only pick comment that people actually liked was “I expect Hassan to be Haskins some questions pretty quickly.” Must do better next year folks.

In terms of getting sniped, Tyler Badie was the only person who was mentioned twice as someone you wanted but some fucker picked first (and you are welcome). Props to Slatz for saying that he got sniped on Kyle Hamilton and then still traded Fred Warner to get a 3rd round pick where he couldn’t take Hamilton.

We’ve been arguing about how to quantify good or bad drafts, and it turns out we don’t really agree on who has been good or bad anyway.

Best drafter in Dbowl history

  • Chris (3)
  • Max (2)
  • Goody (1)
  • Benj (1)
  • Can’t remember this draft (2)

Worst drafter

  • Neil (3)
  • Slatz (2)
  • Pete, Mike and Ben & Stew (1)
  • Don’t want to say (1)

There was an odd consensus here. Simply because no one got votes as best draft and worst drafter. I didn’t check whether anyone voted for themselves. And no one seems to remember Iran drafting at all.

But as we’ve now got 3 years of post-draft surveys, I figured I’d take a look back and see how we rated each other over the last few years. There’s been some impressive consistency: Chris has been 2nd every year, Mike has been 4th every year, Iran has finished either 6th or 7th.. And some less impressive consistency, as Goody and Benj have each finished in the bottom 3 every year. Pete also has an excellent upwards trend.

Team202220212020TotalRank
Chris22261
Ben & Stew7=1192
Mike444123=
Max165123=
Neil537155
Pete3510186
Slatz7=93197=
Ian676197=
Benj988259
Goody81092710

The average total is 16. So above that you’ve been good, below that you’ve been bad. It feels overall like vague tiers of Chris, Ben & Stew, Mike and Max; Neil, Pete, Slatz, Iran; Benj and Goody. You could probably put Neil in either the tier above or below, or just make him a tier of his own. Over the last few years anyway. With the depth of analysis you’d expect, I can’t be bothered to see how that correlates to draft capital. But from memory it has felt like Benj, Goody and Iran haven’t had too many picks and have been rated as drafting badly as a result.

It is amusing that based on our surveys, 2 of us think Benj or Goody are the best drafters, and they have been consistently seen as very bad the last 3 years. And 2 of us think Mike and Ben & Stew have been consistently good recently but are seen as bad. While there’s more agreement that midtable Neil and Slatz have been bad.

But I am the best. That’s the key.

With the sort of talent we have for drafting and also for evaluating the performance of everyone else, you definitely want to rely on our collective pearls of wisdom about it. The only consensus was in “do more research” and “do more prep”. And then we had:

  • “too much hope in the top 10”
  • “If you draft the best guys you can be really good”.

Helpful. You want the best players, but also the people you think are definitely good players probably aren’t. But what about this?

  • “Trade all your picks. Then you can’t fail”
  • “Do not, under any circumstances, get involved in a draft day trade with any of the followi…” (I have no idea what happened here).

So definitely trade all your picks no matter what, but also don’t trade. And then my favourite:

  • “It’s a crap shoot and only 2 or 3 of us are any good at shooting those craps. And none of them are Slatz”
  • “Bet on athleticism, because the misses don’t matter and the hits are massive. Take players you like, it’s not as much fun rooting for dickheads.”

Its a crap shoot, but its also very easy to game. I particularly love the shout-out to Slatz (based on the last 3 years he’s not been good, but he hasn’t been awful) and also that the certainty on display in the latter one seems to be from Slatz.

General Dbowl stuff

I asked who you thought would win the league this year. You picked two favourites: Chris (4) and Iran (3). And then threw in Goody and Benj with 1 vote each as contenders. Essentially, if you made the playoffs last year, you have a chance this year.

3 people said Iran would repeat at the top. 3 people also said Pete would repeat the bottom, following by 2 votes for Mike. Neil, Max, Slatz and Goody also got votes for this shame. So that means that everyone thought Ben and Stew would be solidly mid-table, getting votes in neither category.

7 out of 9 thought the draft was at about the right time, so pencil it in for this time next year folks. And there was equal disagreement about whether we should fucking pick already (4) or drag things out more (3), so you can pencil in next year’s to take around a week.

The most divisive question in the draft was how impressive Ian getting through the whole draft in 0 seconds. The average score was 2.4, but that was made up of 4 ratings of 1 and 4 ratings of 5. So maybe expect some people to prioritise time and some people to not. How insightful.

There wasn’t much consensus on whether we need comp picks:  3 said good riddance to them, 5 said Benj should be ashamed for forgetting them, and one person said a 4th round pick for whoever pisses off Slatz the most. Expect a rule change submission soon.

And speaking of rule changes: 7/9 said they were open to a rule about creating an exempt list to get rid of players we morally object to. And 4/9 said that they had a rule change to submit. So expect a couple of rule changes coming through soon.

Right, that was long. I should probably give this an edit. I’m not going to though.

The Dynabowl 2022 Draft Entrance Survey

Rookie Draft Uncategorized No Comments

Well, the 2022 Dynabowl Draft is in the books. Before it all went down, I asked the GMs to make some predictions about what might happen, and these are the results.

First up, I asked GMs to predict the first round. Some people had an advantage, as they were picking in the first round, sometimes more than once. It certainly made things easier for the Sadness, given their surprise pick of Quay Walker at 10, while the Hurricanes predicted 4 defensive players to go in the first round, which would have been a record, but failed to spot that Walker was the one who would actually. They also incorrectly predicted a trade for pick 8, but failed to nominate who the player taken there would be.

Here’s the full table, along with a score for how accurate people were at guessing. I put my inaccuracy down to not researching the round as I wasn’t going to pick there.

Fashionably late, I received the entrance survey from the Losers shortly after publication and can now add their predictions here, predictions which netted 30 points, leaving Kelkowski as the king predictors:

And after that, let us all salute The Champions for their predictions:

2. How many trades will there be during the draft?

The correct answer was 6. If you’d done your research you could have guessed it would be in this neighbourhood because a glimpse into the past shows that since 2018 there’s been 6, 6, 5 and 4 trades (though 2018 had two trades mid-draft for 2019 picks. However, going back further in time we see that 2017 had 13 trades, 2016 had 10 and 2015 – the first draft in the books, had a whopping 15 trades in during the draft. Insanity. There were only 7 rounds for each of those drafts too…

So what did we say? Well, living in the past we had the Sadness, who went for an astonishing 14 (!!!), while Hard and the Hurricanes both said 10. Some more sensible guesses were had from Tamworth (8), Kelkowski (7), Champions (7), and the Bombermen (8, though admitting “I am literally plucking a number out of the air there”), while the Brees (2) really low-balled it.

Late comer Losers topped everyone, suggesting a total of 15 trades, commenting “Stupid fucking question”, which I assume means that the answer was so obvious why even bother asking.

And at this point I would note that the commentary was pretty scant from most respondents so if this is a bit dry, you know who to blame. (Yourself and everyone but me).

3. Which pick will be the first pick traded?

The correct answer was 2.07, it belonged to the Bombermen, until it was sold to the Tamworth Two. But did anyone get it right?

We already know the Hurricanes guessed that 1.08 would be traded away.

Tamworth went for 2.04, perhaps indicating a desire to get up even higher than they managed.

Kelkwoski plumped for Chris selling 1.09, along the same lines as the Hurricanes guess.

The Bombermen stated “I think Chris will trade one of his first round picks. While I don’t really think that Dave will trade up, but he could be convinced  because I fancy he wants Skyy Moore. But I don’t know, really.” So there definitely was something in the air about Chris making a move, and Moore did, indeed, go at 9 so if he had been sought after you’d have needed to make this leap.

The Brees thought pick 1.04 would have a buyer – a pick which the Champions spent on Treylon Burks.

The Sadness matched Tamworth in plumping for 2.04 while the Hard plumped for 1.06 and the Champions went high, suggesting 1.02 would be on the move.

The Losers were non-committal – “This is more a question of buyer than seller. I’d move 3, but I don’t think I’ll find a buyer”

That meant three people thought Chris was trading, 3 thought Max was, one vote for the Brees and one for the Sadness.

4. Will the first pick traded be for a player (or players), picks, or a combination?

The first trade that happened was 2.07 & 5.07 for 3.08, 4.08 and 4.09, so all picks.

The Brees, Hard and Champions (and the late-comer Losers) said it would be solely for picks, though the Sadness appears to have suggested 2.04 would be sold for 3.05 straight up. Everyone else said a player+pick deal which, based on history, was probably the right guess.

5. Who will be involved in the first trade?

The correct answer was Bombermen and Tamworth, which no one got right. Probably not a surprise.

We had a Hard/Brees trade (Hurricanes and Hard – though the Hard said that he could alternatively trade with the Hurricanes of Champions, so he was sold on himself trading, just like everyone else), Dungeoneers/Champions (Tamworth), Hard and apparently no one else (Kelkwoski), “I already said – Slatz and Chris. Definitely Chris. No real idea about Slatz. Maybe Ian?” (Bombermen), Champions/Hard (Brees), Sadness/Hurricanes (Champions) and Champions/Tamworth (Sadness). Oh, and “Chris” (Losers).

So out of all that there was one half of the trade was guessed correctly, once.

6. Which position are you most keen to pick up to be a contributor for this season?

The Hurricanes wanted a RB and got James Cook. He shoots, he scores.

Tamworth also wanted an RB, but didn’t have a pick until the third round. They traded up for Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier in the second, and also picked up a “Treston Ebner”, whatever that is, in the 11th round. Mission accomplished perhaps as well as could be expected given the capital available at the start of the draft.

Kelkowski wanted a DT to contribute this season, which was probably a tough ask regardless. Even tougher when they don’t end up picking one the whole draft.

The Bombermen said “Running Back. It’s the position most likely to have an impact in the first season.” But they only took one in the 7th (Jerome Ford) and 9th (Jashaun Corbin), so that’s unlikely to have much impact. But the options were a bit thin on the ground this year.

The Brees wanted a wide receiver and got three of them – Garrett Wilson (1st), Alec Pierce (3rd) and Velus Jones (11th). Jones, in particular is a bit of a steal there given the opportunity in Chicago.

The Sadness wanted a linebacker and snaffled up Quay Walker in the first round along with Devin Lloyd in the 2nd and Damone Clark in the 11th. Got that one pretty well covered. Now to see if they contribute first up.

The Champions were after a wide receiver (“Shame about the players”) and came away with 5 of them – their top three picks – Burks (1.04), Williams (1.07) and Pickens (2.04), as well as guys in the 9th and 11th who you’ve never heard of and never will again.

The Hard took this question seriously and responded “I think it’s a really good and deep WR class, so will be upset if I don’t come away with 2 good WRs from the 1st 3 rounds. I generally really like the talent in rounds 3-4. It feels like a draft lacking that top end talent (round 2 is a wasteland) but with great depth.” And on the back of that he has Olave and Moore (1.08 and 1.09) as well as Wan’Dale Robinson in the third. All in all, a good day at the office.

The Losers wanted an RB, and fulfilled that to some degree by taking one in the 7th, the 8th and 11th. It’s possible none of those players take any meaningful snaps.

7. Which player are you most keen to get/most likely to reach for?

I think most people took this as the player they most wanted, whereas I was hoping for the player who appealed to the GM more than the consensus, so they might get jittery and take early – ie I basically wanted to know who you would reach for. I’ll reword it next time.

This became obvious from the first answer I looked at, the Hurricanes proclaiming they were most keen to get Breece Hall, the consensus number 1 overall pick. Not really possible to reach for him, is it?

Tamworth were only mildly closer to the question I really wanted to ask, suggesting James Cook “but he will go too early”. Yes he will. He’ll go fifth when your first pick coming into the draft wasn’t until the third round.

A more sensible response came from Kelkowski: “Given my first pick is at 20, I’m hoping Spiller falls to me there”. Given they traded away pick number 20, they can be very pleased at nabbing Spiller at 3.10, thirtieth overall.

The Bombermen can be equally happy, stating “Doubs, the Green Bay wide receiver. But I’m not so excited that I’ll be grabbing him in the 2nd or anything.” Instead it was 4.08, 38th overall, that they picked up Doubs, right about where he should have been going.

The Brees went for Chris Olave who, unless they traded up to the top two, probably couldn’t have been considered a reach, but if he was the player the most wanted, they had the chance at 6 and declined the option.

The Sadness offered a window into their world by responding ‘Dunno’, which is either the least helpful response possible, or the name of a player so under the radar it could have succeeded in a mission against a nondescript enemy in Top Gun: Maverick.

The Hard said “Rachaad White. Great upside, plus he covers me for Fournette. I’d prefer to take him at about pick 15, but if I can’t get a better option I’m happy with him at #9.” and promptly took him at 18, so all in all, very happy with his work.

The Losers managed to fall on both sides of the coin, with the obvious desire and the one more in keeping with the aim of the question. He didn’t get either player though: “Well, Breece Hall would be nice. But failing him, I like Rachaad White as a good size-speed guy with pass catching skills in a good situation.”

And finally the Champions sums up what everyone is really thinking: “Whichever one Slatz tells me afterwards was my stupidest pick/biggest reach.”

8. Who will make the consensus biggest reach (Draft Exit Survey will be the judge)?

Hurricanes says Hard

Tamworth says Dungeoneers

Kelkowski says Tamworth

Bombermen says (incorrectly) “Everyone will say me. It won’t be me. I swear it. I’ll say…. (pulls name out of hat)… [Tamworth]. No, wait, it’ll be [the Hurricanes]. I won’t spoil the answers that are coming up by saying who….”

Brees appears to think that James Cook was also taking part in the draft and would make the biggest reach… Presumably this mean that he would be the biggest reach (not the question asked), but maybe the post-draft survey will confirm this as correct, seeing as he went fifth overall to the Hurricanes.

Hard says Hurricanes, in a nice bout of symmetry.

The Losers were perhaps a little down on themselves, stating the person most likely to make the consensus reach will be “Me – a lot will depend on if I can swing a deal, but I want Jordan Davis in the second”

And the Champions nominate the Champions.

9. Who will get the consensus biggest bargain?

The Champions says “The Hard – this is how he does well”, and, as recent analysis has shown, unless you don’t believe in all that analysis bollocks (I know I don’t), it is how he does well.

The Hard nominated the Bombermen. Which is very nice of them. I doubt that will hold up now.

The Sadness also believes in the Hard’s drafting ability.

As well as James Cook, Jameson Williams was also making picks in this draft, according to the Brees, and will end up with the biggest bargain… Again, if we change the question to the one they answered, maybe this could be right. He came off the board to the Champions at 1.07. Will that prove to be a bigger bargain that Velus Jones in the 11th round?

We thought the Champions had nailed it above, did the Bombermen nail it here: “Somebody will fall into the Losers’s lap that everyone thinks is great who will then get injured and his career will never really take off”?

Kelkowski and the Hurricanes both thought the Losers would get the biggest bargain, while Tamworth thought the Brees would. They offered no reasoning or colourful commentary on this.

The Losers made possibly the most prescient comment: “Whoever picks Tyler Algieier? Unless someone reaches for him in the 2nd or something mad. He’s probably a 4th round sort of pick, and with no other competition that’ll be a bargain for a potentially competent starting RB.”

Algieier was taken by Tamworth at 2.09 (19th overall).

10. When will the first QB go off the board (round and pick number)? & 11. Who will be the first QB taken?

The correct answer here was Malik Willis at 5.05. For me, he was top of my list at QB, but I had hoped that perhaps that wasn’t the thinking elsewhere in the league. Let’s find out.

The Hurricanes, who took Willis at 5.05, plumped for Howell at 4.08 (originally a Tamworth pick, but traded to the Bombermen in the draft), which would have been quite remarkable given he was the 6th QB taken in the draft and the Commanders also just traded a fair bit of capital for Wentz. But hey. The pick was pretty close.

Tamworth went for Pickett at 3.04, which would have been a Champions pick.

Kelkowski also thought Pickett would go, but seemed to think he would go in the first round, putting down pick 10 as the slot he’d go in. No QB has gone first round before. A remarkable suggestion. A reminder that Pickett when at 8.09 to the Hard.

The Bombermen suggested the first QB would go to the Hurricanes (bing bing bing), but went a round early at 4.05… “Pickett – [the Hurricanes] will take him because he’s a Steeler. It will be the consensus reach.”

The Brees went for the same player, but even higher, at 2.09, which would have been a Hard pick.

The Sadness also plumped for Pickett and also seemed to suggest Neil would take him by isolating pick 3.05 as the spot he’d come off the board.

The Hard has a bone to pick with lots of people after stating “Kenny Pickett. If it’s anyone else it’s a mad pick. I like Corral’s chances for this year too. I’m not sure I’d even bother with any of the others.” We’ve already mentioned they took Pickett themselves, and a long way below the 4.10 (Kelkowski) slot he thought he would go in.

The Losers also said Pickett. “Nobody should be picking Pickett before the 6th round. No other QB should be drafted in the first 7 or 8. He’ll probably go in the 4th though, pick 37”, with, for some reason, the Bombermen taking him (or trading out of the pick, I guess).

The Champions also went for the 4th round, suggesting “4.06, wait that’s me, 4.07”. As for who? “Slim Pickens”. Thanks. For. That.

12. When will the first defensive player go off the board (round and pick number)? & 13. Who will be the first defensive player taken?

Real answer: Quay Walker, 1.10.

Commentary from the Champions: “Honestly, it should probably be 1.01. Have [the Dungeoneers] got the balls for it? Given I’ve said [the Sadness] will trade down I’ll say [the Losers] will at 1.03. Maybe [they]’ll play it more traditional but [they’re] just crazy enough.” Nailed. It. And likewise nailed the who: “I’ve [said the Losers] will do it so I’ll say Aidan Hutchinson as [they] only [have] 3 DEs.” Given the Losers respect for his “T-Rex arms”, couldn’t have been more right.

The Hard were one place and one player out, opting for 2.01 and Devin Lloyd (second defensive player at 2.02). Perceptive. The Losers also went for 2.01, but said it would be Hutchison.

The Sadness nailed it. Because they knew they intended to take Walker at 1.10. I’m not giving points for predicting what you’re going to do. Sorry.

The Brees said Aidan Hutchison at 2.07. He was the 4th defensive player at 2.05, so not a million miles away for the draft spot at least.

Let’s see what the Bombermen have to offer… “2.07? I might take one. Though I could see one going earlier,” and “Hutchison? The Detroit DE taken with the second pick.” So cribbing notes from the Brees then.

2.07 is clearly in vogue as Kelkowski picked Devin Lloyd to be the first defensive player taken in that slot. Perhaps the Bombermen have developed a reputation for taking defensive players early? However, they’ve normally done it in the first round.

Tamworth were pretty close pick-wise, opting for 1.08 – the only one to suggest a defensive player would go in the first. They also managed to write this as a footer rather than in the body of the text. Just a bit of flavour of the kind of rubbish I have to put up with. Anyway, they correctly predicted the pick would be Walker. Bravo! That said, their predicted first round – the first question of this survey, said the Hard would take Skyy Moore at 1.08, so draw your own conclusions.

Finally the Hurricanes thought safety Kyle Hamilton would come off the board 4th, which must make him a steal for the Sadness at 3.02.

14. Who will take the most defensive players?

Volume or percentage, the answer is the same:

The Champions were close. Ish. “Probably [us]. [We] have a history of not taking offensive players after the first 3 rounds except for the odd TE.” Two odd WRs and an odd RB in the final 4 rounds put to rest any dreams in that direction.

The Hard sort of nailed this one, suggesting the Sadness, who were any acceptable right answer by volume.

The Sadness also knew their destiny and predicted they would top the list too.

The Brees also put themselves forward but were a little further from being accurate.

The Bombermen threw themselves and the Champions into the ring and get nothing in return.

The Losers pumped for themselves and weren’t a million miles out: “I’m hoping it’ll be me. I need to do some work.”

Kelkowski gets the dunces hat for nominating themselves, while Tamworth opted for the Brees and the Hurricanes opted for the Champions.

15. How long will the draft last (in days, hours and minutes)?

Actual answer – 6 days, 1 hour and 8 minutes. Well done to the Champions for just being closer than Tamworth:

The latecomer Losers said 3 days, 4 hours, 11 minutes, putting them as the second most inaccurate. Again, it’s a “stupid fucking question”, but if they think it’s so obvious, they were an awfully long way out…

Your Draft Survey Results

League Business Rookie Draft No Comments

It’s time to review the draft with Chris’s extra-special post-draft survey, one that we all really enjoyed. Chris didn’t enjoy it that much though as he’s not done the hard work part of typing these words out. I guess he just doesn’t really love the Dynabowl.

Anyway, first up we’ll have the average scores that people got for their drafts, then the comments, and finally we’ll have the details of the answers to the actual questions, featuring the only question you all really want to know the answer to – who has the best name…

Also, there will be a poll on MFL for the best player out of all those players voted best value.

One note, Max may or may not have responded. One respondent put their name down as “I might be Max” and in pretty much every textual question answered “I don’t know what happened in the draft.” I feel this is accurate so maybe it’s him, but I’m going to remove his ratings from everyone’s score for the draft.

So, who do we think had the best draft? Well, the raw points are worthless because we have a different amount of ratings for different people – a couple of people neglected to score a couple of other people, so it’s the average points that really count. So how did we stack up?

Well, Ben & Stew had the best draft, with a healthy gap back to Chris. There’s then a big drop off to Neil in third. I’m sure that this won’t be another false dawn.

Bringing up the rear are Benj in 8th, Slatz in 9th and James back in 10th. I’m sure James wasn’t penalised for flouting regulations during the season and this is a true view of the quality of his draft.

So here’s the table:

  Total PointsScorersAverage PointsMax ScoreMin Score
1Ben & Stew5987.3886
2Chris5077.1495
3Neil4986.1393
4Geoff4886.0071
5Pete4785.8893
6Max5295.7873
7Ian4285.2581
8Benj3684.5062
9Slatz3584.3882
10James2773.8652

Now, onto what you thought. Let’s start at the top of the list.

1. Ben & Stew

Solid

I liked a lot of their early picks. There may be the beginnings of a decent offense there? I didn’t recognise any of their later picks so they’re probably really good

Decent job with a lot of picks, and early picks

A few of my guys picked up but all around when I had them valued. Nice draft but not too many steals

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

A solid effort, 7 on 10

Solid use of plenty of early round picks

I could genuinely see pretty much every player being useful. Not sure you ever need to draft 3 safeties in one year though.

Stew’s influence is obvious as this looks like a decent class.

2. Chris

Not bad

Not much here to not like. I don’t love trading away so much for an old TE though, especially the Derwin James piece.

I’m unfamiliar with any of those players so probably very canny on Chris’s part

What’s the phrase I’ve continually heard this draft cycle? This was all “chalk”, which I think (based on context) means he basically did everything he should with each pick – he was very much aligned with consensus. I like the first few picks but wasn’t interested in anyone he took late really.

I have completed your blood survey. I don’t know what happened in the draft.

I really liked my draft. I got guys I liked at good value throughout, and managed to trade for an elite

TE at a price that wasn’t totally eye-watering. Would have liked a starting LB out of it, but otherwise I’m happy with it.

Main positives are the value with the first 2 picks and the trades where he ripped off Max

Solid but unspectacular

3. Neil

Some okay picks around where I valued then

No real surprises, I think Neil picked the guys he was supposed to pick, when they were supposed to be picked

Can’t complain much about the first 3 picks but feels like he lost his way after that

I really hated the Jaycee Horn pick, but otherwise I think this is a pretty good draft. Most of them have starting potential, and even Horn could be vaguely worth it.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

One of the best drafts, if we look past Neil’s CB obsession. I do not understand a) taking more when several are on the roster already or b) taking one as early as he took Horn.

I normally like Neil’s drafts. But Smith aside there’s a lot of guys who are just taken about where they should be who have question marks. I think that’s probably a reflection of a poor draft class.

A bit overdrafted across the board imo

Holy Moses, I’m Surtain we will Jaycee this team go Long

4. Geoff

A cornucopia of sadness

Solid early picks which given Mike picked them means they’re definitely going to break or be bad people

The draft rating is bearing in mind the draft capital he had. Wise to take Pitts first because at least half the league wanted him. Sermon is poor value but Lance is a good pick – arguably the best fantasy QB to go for in a 10 team league – QBs are plentiful so you want to draft one with the highest ceiling.

He must love to stay in Double-Trey Hotels. I like the Pitts and Waddle picks, two exciting prospects

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

A lot of reaches imo – Pitts, Lance, Waddle, Sermon, Collins. Mike usually is pretty active trading back, but he seems to have decided this year is the one he wouldn’t and just taken his guys where they came to him. But in reality he’s just taking everyone early.

I’m not a fan of Pitts at 1, but he was going in the top 3, so I guess if you want him you get him. I’d just rather have had Chase or Harris. I also think Sermon was a big reach at 11. But both guys have good upside and there’s a bunch of guys here that are similar. Feels like a lot of swings for the fences on boom/bust guys, but they seem like good swings.

A TE at one was a big shock to me but I know some others called it

Bog standard draft. Not too much ‘wow’ factor here

5. Pete

Efficient

Very few of my guys picked so this was a middling draft

Over half his draft picks I didn’t have ranked in my top 100

Some good value in the early rounds then went all d with exception of a random Shi Smith

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

An LB with the 13th pick takes some cahones

Getting Harris at 3 was very good for Pete. I think he was a bit early on Davis and Oweh, but they should be decent players. I feel like he took too many DEs, but don’t hate the players he took.

Pete: Strangely optimistic about this year’s picks.

Too many picks for not enough cap room.

6. Max

Let’s go Jags!

Some relatively solid picks and an amazing trade combined with an awful one

Hopefully set himself up at qb but has so many holes didn’t really fill them

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

This commenting stuff gets tricky after a few. Meh.

Pretty solid!

I liked his first 3 picks, although I think it ended up being that you could get a good DE way later, so Paye wasn’t great value. I know nothing about the two mid-round WRs.

I think Lawrence was taken too early and isn’t the best QB to go for in this draft. It’s a bit of a meh draft for me – fine, nothing special, not a disaster.

I think he did too much prep for this one

7. Ian

OMG

Very little value here

Made the most out of limited capital

He didn’t have a lot to work with, but I liked most of the picks. Picking a “worst value” was really difficult – even if Atwell is a bust, it’s not that much of a waste given where he was drafted. Most of the late round guys have a vague path towards being useful, so all in all a decent draft given the lack of picks.

He had nothing to work with and got very little for it.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

For having limited early picks, there is a lot to like

Seems fine

8. Benj

Fall in love with guys and massively overdraft them. Check.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

Could have just drafted 12 Mr Irrelevants

Another middling draft. Not much to get excited about but I like the Turner pick

Very different to my rankings, but being contrarian could work out well

I think I did ok. I got players I wanted and spammed the RB position in the hope that someone steps up. I was surprised that Brown was seen as such a reach – I’d seen plenty of mock drafts putting him around that area or within the next 4 or 5 picks (so not making it to me by my next pick) and of course we get no insight into who values which players where so I only really have a bunch of mocks to go on as to where he might fall to. Anyway, we’ll see.

Three a lot of darts at RB’s but no bullseye’s for me

I really liked Bolton, Bateman should be good, and Mitchell at his price was very good value. Brown was a bit of a reach but should be good. Of the picks after Mitchell though, I only liked Turner.

Steady away with limited early round picks

9. Slatz

Yes please

I don’t know anything about rhamondre Stevenson, so that colours this grade a bit. In a sense, I am grading my own ignorance.

I only value Nico Collins as a great pick here so that balances out some other poorer picks

I don’t like it at all. Lots of reaches for guys he obviously liked

Not my favourite draft, but too hard to say at this point if its good or bad

I like Collins, Hubbard and Hawkins but I don’t really fancy that this draft will off much long term. I’d be surprised if any get extended, punter aside of course.

I’m not a fan. Stevenson was a big reach, the WRs and RBs are all major dart throws on guys who mostly didn’t show much actual talent in college. He could easily have cut the entire class in 2 years.

I hate the Stevenson pick. I don’t understand taking him so early. Sure, the draft wasn’t great in depth but he’ll likely have 3 fantasy relevant games a year and you will never know which ones they will be.

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

10. James

Amazing

Huge focus on d but probably reached for a lot of guys. Still he’s got who he wanted I imagine

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

I like the Micah pick, but too WR light to get a top rating

He didn’t have much to work with, and Parsons was a good pick. Basham could be decent. I didn’t like Grant, and everyone else could easily be off rosters within a couple of years.

I don’t really like any of these players. Would be interesting to be able to rate what he traded the first for as well though, to see if he got good value for picks not used

Tough sledding with no early picks. Draft could only be defensive in nature, and we all hate defensive players

Mainly late round picks so hard to really assess their long term value

I don’t think he picked a single player I was remotely considering. A waste of a draft. Also, the trade would have scored much higher if he’d used the pick on someone worthwhile.

Onwards to the data!

Now then, rather than in ranked order, just normal league order, starting with Pete, here are the answers to each of the questions. I’m not listing every answer, anyone with only one vote is omitted for at least some semblance of brevity. Oh, and there were 10 voters on every question. Well done everyone.

Pete’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

RB Najee Harris (3) – 6

LB Jamin Davis (13) – 2

Who represents the best value?

WR Kadarius Toney (29) – 4

DE Gregory Rousseau (43) – 3

RB Najee Harris (3) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

LB Jamin Davis (13) – 2

DE Jayson Oweh (23) – 2

WR D’Wayne Eskridge (33) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

WR Kadarius Toney (29) – 5

RB Najee Harris (3) – 2

None of them – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

CB Greg Newsome (118) – 6

WR Shi Smith (78) – 2

Ben & Stew’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

WR Ja’Marr Chase (2) – 9

QB Justin Fields (25) – 1 (alright, I said I wouldn’t do the single votes thing, but here, because there was only one, I thought you might like to see who checked in above Chase)

Who represents the best value?

WR Amon-Ra St Brown (32) – 2

WR Ja’Marr Chase (2) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

WR Rondale Moore (12) – 4

DE Jaelan Phillips (22) – 3

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

WR Rondale Moore (12) – 5

RB Travis Etiene (5) – 2

QB Justin Fields (25) – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

S Trevon Moehrig (77) – 5

None of them – 2

James’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 7

Who represents the best value?

DE Carlos Basham (53) – 3

LB Derrick barnes (68) – 2

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 2

RB Chris Evans (49) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

S Richie Grant (30) – 8

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

S Richie Grant (30) – 5

Neither of them – 3

LB Micah Parsons (15) – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

RB Jermar Jefferson (84) – 4

None of them – 3

The score for the following trade:

GIVE Jonnu Smith, GET Pick 3.10 (used for Richie Grant) was… 4.375/10, after I removed the 10 that James gave himself. Someone else gave it a 10 though. Crazy.

Is it weird that Chris called Goody ‘James’ throughout?

Yes – 8

No – 2

Geoff’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

TE Kyle Pitts (1) – 7

WR Jaylen Waddle (6) – 3

Who represents the best value?

LB Zaven Collins (21) – 2

RB Trey Surman (11) – 2

WR Jaylen Waddle (6) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

TE Kyle Pitts (1) – 3

RB Trey Surmon (11) – 3

QB Trey Lance (19) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

RB Trey Surman (11) – 5

None of them – 2

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

S Divine Deablo (116) – 4

CB Caleb Farley (86) – 2

WR Cornell Powell (76) – 2

None of them – 2

Slatz’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

WR Nico Collins (26) – 5

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 2

WR Anthony Schwartz (38) – 2

Who represents the best value?

WR Nico Collins (26) – 3

WR Anthony Schwartz (38) – 2

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 2

QB Davis Mills (111) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 8

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (18) – 9

WR Nico Collins (26) – 1

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

QB Davis Mills (111) – 3

P Pressley Harvin (121) – 2

WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette (81) – 2

None of them – 2

Neil’s Draft

(Neil didn’t provide ratings for any of his picks so there are only 9 votes in play)

Who will be the best player?

WR Devonta Smith (4) – 6

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (24) – 2

Who represents the best value?

DE Joseph Ossai (56) – 3

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (24) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

CB Jaycee Horn (37) – 5

DT Christian Barmore (28) – 2

WR Devonta Smith (4) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

DT Christian Barmore (28) – 4

RB Michael Carter (14) – 4

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

CB Patrick Surtain (79) – 5

WR Simi Fehoko (109) – 3

Benj’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

WR Rashod Bateman (7) – 6

LB Nick Bolton (27) – 2

Who represents the best value?

RB Kylin Hill (59) – 2

RB Elijah Mitchell (57) – 2

DE Payton Turner (70) – 2

(As an aside, it’s quite nice to see 7 different players get picked here)

Who was the worst value pick?

WR Dyami Brown (17) – 5

WR Rashod Bateman (7) – 3

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

WR Rashod Bateman (7) – 4

WR Dyami Brown (17) – 3

None of them – 3

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

RB Jake Funk (82) – 5

None of them – 4

Max’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

QB Trevor Lawrence (10) – 7

Who represents the best value?

DE Kwity Paye (20) – 2

WR Terrace Marshall (9) – 2

S Andre Cisco (105) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

DE Kwity Paye (20) – 3

WR Terrace Marshall (9) – 2

QB Trevor Lawrence (10) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

None of them – 5

WR Terrace Marshall (9) – 4

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

S Andre Cisco (105) – 4

LB Baron Browning (95) – 3

The score for the following trade:

GIVE: Travis Kelce, Pick 4.10; GET: Henry Ruggs, Derwin James, Pick 1.09 (used on Terrace Marshall) was… 4.67/10

The score for the following trade:

GIVE: Pick 3.10; GET: Jonnu Smith was… 6.56/10

Ian’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

LB Pete Werner (35) – 4

TE Pat Friermuth (45) – 3

WR Tutu Atwell (39) – 2 (so someone other than Chris voted for him)

Who represents the best value?

LB Pete Werner (35) – 3

TE Pat Friermuth (45) – 3

RB Kenneth Gainwell (47) – 3

Who was the worst value pick?

WR Tutu Atwell (39) – 5

LB Pete Werner (35) – 3

TE Pat Friermuth (45) – 2

Ian had no picks in the first 3 rounds. He traded a 1st and 3rd (and potentially another 2nd or 3rd) for Allen Robinson. He also traded a 2nd for Zach Ertz. Which of these trades was horrifically bad?

TE Zach Ertz for a 2nd – 10

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

WR Dez Fitzpatrick (80) – 3

TE Brevin Jordan (90) – 2

Chris’s Draft

Who will be the best player?

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 5

WR Elijah Moore (16) – 4

Who represents the best value?

WR Elijah Moore (16) – 5

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 2

Who was the worst value pick?

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 2

LB Chazz Surratt (60) – 2

DT Milton Williams (75) – 2

Which top 30 pick is most likely to bust?

None of them – 7

RB Javonte Williams (8) – 3

Which pick in the 8th round or later is most likely to be useful?

TE Tommy Tremble (83) – 3

S Jevon Holland (93) – 3

WR Seth Williams (113) – 3

Who has the best name in the draft?

Racey McMath – 4

Divine Deablo – 4

Chuba Hubbard – 1

Amon-Ra St Brown – 1 (Maybe Max?)

Who gave the best pick comment?

“All aboard the Toney Train! Fat Controller: Dave Gettleman. Conductor: Jason Garrett. DRIVER: the Young Joka himself, Two Shoes Toney. Choo Choo!” (Pete on Kadarius Toney) – 5 votes

“Don’t Look Back in Hufanga.” (Ben and Stew on Hufanga Talanoa) – 2 votes

“Now I can cut Andy Dalton to make sure both my QBs have first names for last names.” (Max on Trevor Lawrence) – 2 votes (one of these votes was maybe from Max though)

“In the 2nd round, if you’re not hitting Paye-dirt, you may as well Kwity.” (Max on Kwity Paye) – 1 vote

Pete picked fastest, at 17 minutes per pick. What should his reward be?

200$ extra cap room

A weekend away at Neil’s for him to take over Neil’s 2022 draft

The nickname “Pistol Pete” for the season

He should be punished for not writing pick comments.

Slow clap

To work out if he was really fastest if auto picks are included

He gets the only playoff spot for Peter each season.

Something nice, like a better team

Bonus pick next year

A turducken

Neil picked slowest, at 6 hours per pick. What should his punishment be?

A chiduckey

He gets moved to Peter.

Bonus pick next year

Punishment? Should get an award for having to listen to the moaning!

He should have a baby to keep him awake all night

Not allowed to watch any Chiefs games this year; only Steelers

Being forced to have a really busy job and a new-born child. Oh, wait.

Banned from all future drafts

A weekend with Pete to help him with the 2022 draft

The nickname “Andrew Neil” for the season

The draft took 10 days. Is that…?

Too long – 6

About right – 3

Too short – 1 (this may have been Max)

Any last words?

Thoroughly enjoyable

Great draft, very enjoyable. Now that I’ve stopped watching the actual football, definitely the highlight of the year. Wait, did I say that out loud?

It feels like the worst draft class we’ve had so not many picks felt like good value

Really enjoyed my first rookie draft!

Nope

I don’t know what happened in the draft.

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