Guest Previews 2015 – Champions of the Sun by Pete Conaghan

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2014 Record: 6-7, missed playoffs.

Offseason Review

Wily old fox Max Cubberly went in a contrarian direction in the draft, going for defense early and often. You’re not going to win championships by doing the same thing as everyone else, so the Champions took Leonard Williams with the second pick of the third round to get a jump on building their ever-expanding stable of defensive ends. This was followed by another pick in the same round taking the injured Dante Fowler. As eyes narrowed in GM offices around the league, Cubberly told his secretary to immediately instigate a campaign to introduce the generic defensive lineman position, rather than have tackle and end. The work continues.

Marcel Dareus was added in Free Agency, which had DeSean Jackson going the other way, and this was offset by a long brewing trade with Tamworth in which the Champions acquired John Brown, who they hope will be a rising star.

LeGarrette Blount was signed on the eve of the new season, and with the release of Jonas Gray, should provide some semblance of reliable production in New England. A tactical signing, he should be good enough to single handedly win the Gameweek 6 matchup for the Champions, when NE play the Colts.

Where they will improve:  Most position groups did not get significantly better, with the exception of Quarterback. Ben Rothlisberger was scooped up in free agency, and signed to a team-friendly deal.  If he can produce at 2014 levels, and John Brown fulfils expectations,  the team will improve on offense. CJ Spiller’s move to New Orleans has improved the running back group immeasurably, and if he can stay healthy and Latavius Murray produce some measure of success on Oakland’s baseball dirt, then the team can kick on from 2014.

Khalil Mack is expected to make up for lost time, sack wise, and the addition of Dareus gives the Champions a rising number of star names on defense.

Where they will regress:  Will Mike Evans survive a sophomore slump? Will DeAndre Hopkins survive Brian Hoyer? Both receivers have shown they can overcome impossible quarterback odds and be successful, so we should expect that to continue this year.  But if they don’t, then we could see the notably more mercurial Percy Harvin and Allen Robinson coming into play. Which should also be fine, really.

2015 Prediction: 7-6, and missing the playoffs.  If everything goes right for the Champions, they should be a playoff team. However I am arbitrarily deciding that not everything will go right.

 

Guest Previews 2015 – Dynablaster Bombermen by Pete Conaghan

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2014 Record: 7-6, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Offseason Review

The Bombermen had a reasonable draft, which was elevated by trading up a spot to nab Melvin Gordon at #5 after Tamworth took Devante Parker and The Brees took Tevin Coleman in a Bortles-esqe pick backed by deep conviction.  But can Gordon produce with a brand new offensive line in SD (one player returning at his position) and a second-year OC pilloried for his lack of imagination?  A hundred draw plays on 2nd and long will tell the story.

Free Agency saw a lot of wheeling and dealing with the view of bolstering attack and defense, the Bombermen committing resources to linebacker and corner in a reversal of the league’s accepted wisdom. Conor Barwin is a 3-down LB who will thrive and contribute even if his sack total may have been an outlier last year. The top fantasy corner in the game, Vontae Davis, will be top five for years to come, maybe.

Putting together potentially three of the best RBBCs in the league was an impressive feat, and hopefully doesn’t lead to angst further down the line. All six RBs are expected to get plenty of touches.

Outgoing trades were mostly fringe players and should not harm the team.

Where they will improve:  The Bombermen will hope that they have the right mixture of youth and experience, welcoming Andre Johnson into the WR corps to help out Anquan Boldin and the younger guys. Depth should not be an issue, with most position groups augmented and steady backups acquired.

Where they will regress:  The team strengthened at almost all positions, so any regression in league position may be linked to other teams becoming stronger more quickly – can the Bombermen keep up with the arms race? The only warning flags that exist are performance related – could the young 2nd and 3rd year running backs regress? They are unproven over time but the team’s depth should be enough to overcome all but a blanket running back failure.

2015 Prediction: First round of playoffs. Bombermen are a solid team, but do they have the star power to break open a playoff game?

Guest Previews 2015: Dynasore Losers by Ian Kulkowski

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Welcome to a series of GM-led previews of the various teams of the Dynabowl Fantasy Football League. The opening preview is of the Dynasore Losers, GMed by David Slater and is brought to you by the letters K, U, L, K again, O, S, K for a third time and I.

Dynasore Losers

2014 record
8-5, 1st in Peter. 2nd in Points for, 2nd in Potential Points, 2nd in All play, semi final losers, 3rd place

“Everyone else’s team sucks” & “My way is definitely best” is what Slatz would almost certainly say if he were to write his own preview. Unfortunately looking through the train wreck that is their old, broken roster I can see nothing but pain and heartache ahead for the Losers this season.
But first, let’s try and focus on the positive a bit and see where the Losers have improved from last year…

Improvement
2 words. AP. That’s it. Without the child beating former superstar’s return to the game, this roster would be as dead as the majority of Josh Gordon’s brain cells. Will the return of not-human Peterson be enough to give this team a chance of repeating last year’s success? Whilst Peterson is capable of putting up some ridiculous numbers, even he will probably not be enough to carry this roster back to the playoffs.
Oh the other area of improvement for the Losers is kicker & punter (as described in great detail in the Commissioner’s preview). But so what? They’re kickers & punters.

Regression
Where to begin. Slatz built his roster around a solid aged core with the aforementioned Peterson and QB Peter Manning as lynchpins to the roster. After failing spectacularly during the final 5 weeks of last season there are now serious questions over Peter’s position as stud QB. With Manning potentially dropping down (and maybe out of) the top 10 QBs, this takes the Losers from a position of strength to bunch of middling options.
The addition of Winston (who definitely hasn’t sexually assualted anyone) to accompany Raiders sophomore Carr should provide a good future at the position, but it is likely too early for either of these to help the team too much this year.
There is a similar story at RB. Last years’ star performer (4th ranked overall RB) Forte will turn 30 during the season and is surely hitting the decline phase of his career. Depth at the position is also an issue with the loss of Stewart & Robinson in free agency. There are only 2 NFL starters amongst the RB corps so this is definitely a position which will cause GM Slatz some headaches as the season wears on.
More trouble at WR as the team has lost it’s anchor (and 2nd ranked WR last year) in Jordy Nelson. With Josh Gordon never likely to return the Losers are left with Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith & Larry Fitzgerald as their probable starting WR’s. Hardly the most fearsome foursome. TE also sees a potential downgrade with Graham’s move to Seattle.
On the defensive side of the ball, injuries, free agency and early retirement have left holes in the Losers roster. There are still good starters at most positions but the depth is now near non existent.

Ceiling
If Peter returns to his record breaking best, Adrian has a career year and the Losers find some receivers from somewhere then maybe all is not lost and this team has an outside shot of making the playoffs.
Then again, maybe not!

Floor
The floor’s (thankfully) the limit for the losers this year. If things don’t go their way then avoiding the prized first pick in the 2016 draft could be deemed a success.

Prediction
5-8. A complete reversal of last year and barring some miracle this losers franchise is going nowhere fast. GM Slatz has a big decision on his hands. Does he stick with the plan and try to compete as best he can, or does he sell the family silver and go into full blown rebuild mode.

2015 Commish Previews: Dyna Hard

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Team: Dyna Hard – Chris Braithwaite/Steve Smith Jnr

2014 Record: 5-8, 1st pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Todd Gurley (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB), David Cobb (RB), Tyler Lockett (WR), Bradley Pinion (P)

Free Agency – Joseph Randle (RB)

Trade – TY Hilton (WR), Kendall Wright (WR)

Significant Losses:

Trade – Julian Edelman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Allen Hurns (WR)

Preview:

In 2014 the Hard had an AWE of 7.12 wins, good for 4th best in the league, and the joint biggest differential in the league, and was over 96% certain to win a minimum of 5 games. Schedule was undoubtedly the biggest factor in the end of season record and the opportunity to select first in the draft.

In addition, while Dyna Hard were a middle-of-the-pack 5th in terms of total points scored, they were the second worst coached team in the league 25.2% of potential points left on the bench. In fact, based on potential points, Dyna Hard were the best team in the league. Some of that inefficiency was down to the difficulty of picking the right defensive players each week, with defensive points so variable, you’d still hope for better selection overall in 2015.

Given all of the above, you’d expect the team to be better in 2015 regardless of any moves made, but the two key incoming players could make the Hard the team to beat this season. TY Hilton gives them a pretty fearsome WR triple, alongside Antonio Brown and Sammy Watkins and while Todd Gurley may not be a part of this offence for the first half of the season, they have probably the strongest four-pronged RB core in the league, with Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris and Joseph Randle, who looks set to be the starter behind Dallas’ all-world offensive line.

Randle, of course, won’t repeat the feats of DeMarco Murray last year, even if he thinks there was some ‘meat left on the bone’ in 2014, but he still stands a good chance of being a top 10 back in 2015.

The rest of the offence probably only rates as adequate, but I’m not sure that matters with all the strength on view at RB and WR. It’s a little bit of a shame that the talent is split 4 RBs and 3 WRs given the league limits allow 3 RBs and 4 WRs. Perhaps a trade will come later in the season, when Gurley is producing and bye cover is dealt with.

On the defence, non-human JJ Watt returns, and Greg Hardy will be suiting up from week 5 giving them a pretty fearsome DE pairing, and there are above average players at most positions. The concern is in the depth. If injuries hit, they could hit hard. Out of 7 LBs on the roster, 4 of them basically didn’t play in 2014 (Alonso, Mathis and Weatherspoon didn’t suit up, Clowney needn’t have bothered), and while there’s talent there, you’ve got to be concerned about how much play you’re going to get out of them in 2015.

Finally, the team are pretty hard up against the cap. At time of writing they need to drop 9 players, assuming 2 more go to the taxi squad and are $11 over the cap. They’ll get under no problem – the minimum savings there are $11 – but there’s little wriggle room for bringing in cover if players move to IR in the season.

Verdict:

With a little better management and a little better luck in the schedule, this team would have made the playoffs in 2014. With the improvements made in the off-season and barring injury to key components, that should be the minimum expectation in 2015.

Prediction:

8-5 and eventual champions. The record is a conservative estimate. In 2014, 3 teams finished with a league best 8-5 record. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 9-4 or better but given the degree of variation in scoring 8-5 seems appropriate.

2015 Commish Previews: Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

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Team: Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules – Ian Kulkowski/Jay Kelly

2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Significant Additions:

Draft – TJ Yeldon (RB), Devin Funchess (WR), Randy Gregory (DE), Danny Shelton (DT), Ty Montgomery (WR)

Free Agency – Sam Bradford (QB), Cullen Jenkins (DT), Jay Ratliff (DE)

Trade – Jason Witten (TE), Doug Baldwin (WR)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Joseph Randle (RB), Delanie Walker (TE)

Trade – Stevie Johnson (WR)

Preview:

Kelkowski clocked in as the third highest scorers and the third highest potential scorers in 2014, a feat achieved on the back of a fearsome trident at both RB and WR. First up were Arian Foster, Former Heisman Trophy Winner Mark Ingram Jnr, and DeMarco Murray. Foster is now out for probably the first 6 weeks of the season minimum and while Alfred Blue is also on the roster, the drop in quality is something similar as from Tony Romo to Blake Bortles. FHTWMIJ Is still fit and raring to go at New Orleans but CJ Spiller has come in and will take some of the carries away from him. Meanwhile DeMarco Murray is one of the most intriguing players of the season due to his move to the Eagles. While he’s likely to remain very effective, he will surely see a reduction in carries too as he shares the work with Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. All told, the running backs are looking likely to regress from their dominant position in 2014.

At receiver, they put out Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin, who can be expected to improve, repeat and regress from last season respectively. All told that’s a wash, but I’d be concerned if Johnson missed any more time, while Maclin only has one healthy, truly productive season on which to base predictions so how far he regresses is unknown. That said, he does have Alex Smith to take advantage of his pace down the sidelines.

Beyond that, there’s little depth at WR. Doug Baldwin is in an offence which might look to get more aerial, but has Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett to get past now. Devin Funchess could be in a position to try to emulate Kelvin Benjamin but he’s a converted tight end still learning the role; calling 1000 yards optimistic would be an understatement.

At tight end, Julius Thomas’ performance may shed some light on the long held debate about who is better, Peyton Manning or Blake Bortles, while Jason Witten has been an incredible player for many years but his powers must surely be waning.

The defence is pretty similar to the Bombermen’s, with strength at DE but a lack at DT and a decent balance at LB and CB, and unmatched depth at safety. That said, the Jason Pierre-Paul injury hurts. He had 12.5 sacks last year but you can probably count the number he’ll get this year on the fingers of one… oh. Anyway, if JPP doesn’t like it he can give me the finger. Sorry. That was quite tortured. To be fair, the injury could motivate him to come back with a chip on his shoulder and everyone knows when JPP is in the mood there are fireworks.

Now, just as a palate cleanser, let’s head back to AWE. Kelkowski were the closest thing the league had to a 9 win team in 2014, clocking in at a win expectation of 8.59. They had the greatest likelihood of hitting 8 wins, at 78.1% so definitely merited their place in the playoffs. If anything, these stats suggest they should be looking to move up, not down, but that, of course, doesn’t take into account any of the factors laid out above.

Verdict:

It’s tough to get repeat performances in the NFL. Too many players will have a career year and then regress back to the mean. If everything goes right for Kelkowski they are title contenders, but I just don’t see Foster/Blue, FHTWMIJ, Murray and Maclin all hitting the heights of 2014. In fact, I don’t see any of them doing so. This will still be a strong team who will be in with a shout come the end of the season.

Prediction:

6-7, though that could just as easily be 8-5. Tim is a strong Division and someone ends up being the fall guy. At the end of the day, I think there were one or two too many career years in 2014 for the numbers to repeat, but there’s enough strength here that a playoff spot wouldn’t surprise me either. The problem with predictions in these previews is that they really need to tally and I can’t just say 8-5 about everyone.

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