MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week One

Max Stat Blats No Comments

Once the final scores are tallied each week, I, Maximilian Cubberley, feed them into a colourful spreadsheet to produce spurious stats that range from the inaccurate to the irrelevant.  Last season I kept this to myself for the most part but now, you lucky bunch, you get to share in the fun too!  Here’s some stats complete with half-arsed analysis from week 1 of the new season.  As always, when we start something new we look to the past for validation.  Let’s see how everyone’s week 1 compared to last season.

Don’t Take Offence

A lot changed in the off-season.  Players were cut, players were traded, players were drafted, all David’s linebackers retired.  Here’s a sweeping overview of the top offences for week 1 vs the top offences from last season.

Top 5 Offences in 2015:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (125 points on average)
  2. Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules (120 poa)
  3. Dynasore Losers (116 poa)
  4. Champions of the Sun (110 poa)
  5. DynaHard (108 poa)

Top 5 Offences in Week 1:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (132 points)
  2. DynaHard (122 points)
  3. Tamworth Two (115 points)
  4. East Flanders Dungeoneers (110 points)
  5. Champions of the Sun (107 points)

Firebirds still sit top of the pile with Champions of the Sun also holding rough position.  DynaHard have powered up the rankings powered by free agent signing Joseph Randle and the surprising competence of the Tennessee Titans offence.  The news is not so good for Kelkowski though where an injury to Arian Foster, Jeremy Maclin’s new position as ‘A Chiefs’ Pass Catcher Who Isn’t Travis Kelce’ and Julius Thomas’ need to break his own hand to avoid having to play for the Jags has dropped them out of the top 5 and resulted in a loss of 14 points from their average.  They can console themselves with the fact that at least they’re not the Dynasore Losers though who plummet from 3rd place to 9th after one week with a staggering loss of 42 points from last season’s average.  Although many predicted a sharp drop-off for Slater’s boys I don’t think anyone can have expected this and the fans will be hoping that this is a blip for the Broncos not the whole story as the Losers’ offence looks lost without Manning and Sanders as Jordy Nelson is also gone for the season.

On the other hand, maybe we should all just take solace in the fact these stats clearly mean nothing.  I mean, the freshly re-branded East Flanders Dungeoneers have somehow appeared in the top 5 there gaining 16 points over their average from last year.  Time will tell if the improvement is sustainable.

As a general note, whilst there are obviously big swings in points from one week to the next it should be noted that for both offence and defence, 4 of the top 5 teams at the end of last season were also in the top 5 in week 1 of last season.

On the Defensive

Top 5 Defences in 2015:

  1. Champions of the Sun (80 poa)
  2. Tamworth Two (79 poa)
  3. DynaHard (77 poa)
  4. Here Comes the Brees (75 poa)
  5. Dynabummer Blastermensch (75 poa)

Top 5 Defences in Week 1:

  1. DynaHard (115)
  2. Champions of the Sun (90)
  3. Here Comes the Brees (71)
  4. DynaforOne Firebirds (65)
  5. Dynasore Losers (61)

As with Offence we can see the Champions of the Sun holding steady and DynaHard showing improvement for what was already a good unit.  Both teams should be encouraged by week 1 of this season and take it as a sign that they can improve on their positions from last season.  Worryingly for the rest of the league, the Firebirds have held steady on offence and improved on defence, cracking the top 5 in week 1 when they finished 2015 as the worst defensive unit.  This improvement is in no small part due to a big improvement at linebacker where Derrick Johnson’s return seems to have sparked life into the team.

Both the Tamworth Two and the Dynabunny Boostermonks dropped out of the top 5 in week 1.  For the Hogs this may not be more than a blip.  They scored 61 points on defence, which is a significant drop but it was a quiet week for elite rushers Chandler Jones and Olivier Vernon that should not become the new norm for these players.  The Dynaboomer Bustermuffs dropped from 75 points to 39 in week 1, in large part due to a dismal 2.5 point effort from their defensive line of Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams.  Whilst this looks more alarming than the story for the Hogs you can’t look at those three names and say you expect single-digit defensive line performances going forward.  The Bambimoons should bounce back next week.

Don’t Be Down on D

Some of you may be looking at your week 1 performances with a frowny face, worrying, particularly, about performance on the defensive side of the ball.  With an average score of 64.5 on D this week the league is running at nearly 10 points under the average defensive performance than last year.  There’s good news however as defensive point scoring trended up as the season went along last year.  In weeks 1 to 5 last season, the average defence scored 65.1 points.  In weeks 10 to 14 the average score jumped to 77.1.  A lot of defensive positions are volatile, particularly DT, CB and S and it takes a while to pinpoint who the best players on the roster (or the wire) are for the coming season.  Chances are that you will see your defences start to pick up more points as the season goes along and getting ahead of that knowledge curve in those volatile positions will help with that.

First to Worst

Now it’s time to overreact!  Which units on which teams were good last season and terrible in week 1?  Let’s find out.

  1. Champions of the Sun RBs – 2015 rank: 3rd, Week 1 rank: 10th.  With Le’Veon Bell and Lagarette Blount suspended, CJ Spiller injured and the Cleveland Cabal traded away it was no surprise to see the Champions rushing attack falter in week 1.  Starting only two players for a combined 8.3 points it must have been painful viewing for the Dayman, even if it doesn’t seem to have cost him the win (disclaimer: scoring adjustments on Thursday are likely to make this statement false very shortly).
  2. Dynasore Losers LBs – 2015 rank: 1st, Week 1 rank: 10th.  As with the Champions’ rushers above, David Slater can’t have been surprised to see his linebacking corps disintegrate.  DeAndre Levy released, Terrell Suggs injured, Tamba Hali another year older and, worst of all, Chris Borland retiring has left the Losers with a makeshift unit heaped on the shoulders of Ryan Kerrigan.  It may pick up (to be honest, they scored 8 points between them this week, it couldn’t get worse) but we won’t be seeing the Losers back to the top of the charts at this position this year.
  3. East Flanders Dungeoneers and Dynasty of Sadness Special Teams – 2015 rank: 4th and 3rd, Week 1 rank: 9th and 10th.  It’s a sure sign that teams have been focusing their off-season efforts in the wrong places when special teams takes a hit.  Despite how commonly acknowledged it is, both Pete Conaghan and Geoffrey Manboob seem to have forgotten that kickers and punters are the lifeblood of the team.  If this course is not corrected immediately I foresee a dismal season ahead for both teams.

Last in the Past

Now let’s look at some of the units that have improved vastly over last season based on week 1 performance.

  1. East Flanders Dungeoneers Running Backs – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  When the Dungeoneers gave up Eddy Lacy for the 2nd pick in the draft it seemed like Pete Conaghan was accepting that sub par was the new par at running back.  When he then traded away Lagarette Blount it seemed the white flag was already waving.  Little did we know that Carlos Hyde was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson.  Hyde put up 168 yards and 2 TDs in week 1 against the Vikings.  Whilst you might question the sustainability of this, Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings contributed another 17 points and the unit was only narrowly pipped to #1 by an Ameer Abdullah and Eddy Lacy-led Sadness rushing unit.  The Dungeoneers won’t get 47 points from this lot every week but they seem to be in a position to sustain a good performance for the season.  They won’t win anything if they don’t sort out their special teams though.  Seriously.  Sort out your special teams, Pete.
  2. Dynaforone Firebirds Linebackers – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  Julius Peppers was a lone bright spot for the Firebirds last season at linebacker.  This improvement may need to be taken with a pinch of salt as, despite coming 2nd on the week, the Firebirds’ linebackers put up a good week, not a great week.  Derrick Johnson is a big plus for them though and Brandon Graham will have better days ahead.  The unit is not deep though so an injury in the wrong place or age catching up to Peppers could see the Firebirds dropping back down the rankings again.

That’s it from me for week 1.  Theoretically I will be doing more pointless stats in the coming weeks but, realistically, I’ll probably not be bothered.

Guest Previews 2015 – The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness by Max Cubberley

Around The Grounds Free Agency League Business Previews Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

2014 Record: 5-8, last place in Peter, 9th in points for, last in potential points, 9th in all play, improved to 7th in the loser ladder

Off-season Review

It really was a back and forth battle all last season. One week one team had the edge, the next week it was the other team. Both sets of players, and their GMs, put in a monumental effort to outdo the other in a contest that had the rest of us on the edges of our seats but ultimately only one team could finish bottom of Peter and the Sadness just pipped the Dungeoneers to the post. Regardless of that, Geoffrey Manboob went into the off-season knowing he had a big job on his hands.

Unfortunately the Peach Shadow seemed to take that literally and went for quantity rather than quality in free agency with 23 players joining up for a gruelling evaluation process in training camp, the most notable names including Darrelle Revis and Brandon LaFell. Of those 23 not many survived. Josh Hill adds a splash of potential at TE and Bruce Irvin and Damontre Moore may turn into solid additions but, overall, free agency has all the colour and movement of a candy floss machine with all the attendant substance. At least they didn’t lose anyone significant with Riley Cooper, Justin Smith and Greg Jennings the only notable names to be cut or released.

Heading into the draft, the Sadness did not look any stronger than last season but if MANGBOOB disappointed in free agency he showed his nous in the cut-throat, split-second world of dynasty drafting. The haul of young talent wasn’t particularly exciting with Ameer Abdullah, Matt Jones and Jaelen Strong the three main prospects to emerge but the GM’s manoeuvring also brought Eddy Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Sheldon Richardson and Markus Wheaton in. Richardson’s subsequent legal troubles cast something of a pall on that move but in getting Lacy and Osweiler for 1.02, Manboob pulled off the deal of the year, maybe even the decade.

In other trade-related business the Sadness revealed the depth of belief they have in Teddy Tinyhands as a future star QB by trading Cam Newton to the Dungeoneers with Drew Brees coming the other way to smooth the transition for Bridgeater.

Improvement: The Sadness already had one of the strongest WR groups in the league and they come into the new season with an upgrade at QB and a huge one at RB. The sore thumb on the roster is Montee Ball at $49 but even there we could see a happy ending as if the lad goes 4 weeks without a team he can be released with none of that guaranteed salary sticking on the Sadness’ wage bill thanks to being cut by the Broncos. They finished 10th in average offensive points per game last season and they should see a huge improvement there in the new season.

Regression: When I say that there are no areas of the Sadness that look weaker you shouldn’t read too much into that. It would have been harder for some areas of the team to get weaker. The defence is largely untouched from the unit that averaged the 9th lowest score last season and it would take a lot of squinting to see how it would improve on that with the group of players there. The Sadness focused on improving the offence in the off-season and will be hoping that will cover the defensive deficiencies for a year.

Prediction: I don’t necessarily see too much of an improvement in standings for the Sadness and think they could well finish 5-8 or maybe 6-7 again, being towards the bottom end of Peter. What I do expect is for them to be competitive in most games and bridge a lot of the gap that existed between them and the Dungeoneers and the rest of the league.

Guest Previews 2015 – Here Comes the Brees by Max Cubberley

Free Agency League Business Previews Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

2014 Record: 8-5, 2nd in Peter, 6th in points for, 6th in potential points, 7th in All Play, lost in Superb Owl final

Offseason Review

It’s been a while so let’s just refresh ourselves with that line up above there.  6th in points for, 6th in potential points and 7th in all play yet Here Comes the Brees limped all the way to the Superb Owl.  Given that they got steamrollered by the Firebirds in the main event though the question is: was last season’s unlikely success actually a hindrance to the Brees?  Receiving late draft picks because of it put them in the unenviable position of having a sparse roster and a lack of premium young talent to replenish.  It has been a long, uncomfortable summer for Ben Archer and Dan Sayles.

One of the more active teams on the trade market, the Brees have attempted to turn areas of surplus strength on the defence or untrusted commodities into skill position improvements.  Out have gone Marcell Dareus (not needed with Aaron Donald ready to step up this season), Kendall Wright, Corey Brown, Martellus Bennett and Roy Helu to be replaced with Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West, Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, DeSean Jackson and a smattering of draft picks.  It’s a lot of churn but the question could be asked of whether the overall quality of the team has really improved that much.

In free agency the odd decision was taken to recruit Owen Daniels, another TE to add to a stable that already included Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz and Martellus Bennett.  Even with Bennett’s departure, TE did not seem to be an area requiring much investment and although Daniels lands in a good and familiar situation that roster spot could perhaps have been better used elsewhere.  Apart from that the Brees only invested capital in upgrading their linebackers, bringing in Nigel Bradham and Pernell McPhee.  Bradham’s addition will not excite, he’s a run-of-the-mill depth option, but Pernell McPhee is a good addition.  Although he’s seen only limited snaps in his career to date he has a high ceiling as a pass rusher and could prove a shrewd addition.

The trend of investing in skill positions continued in the draft with the first 4 picks going on Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Philip Dorsett and Maxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Williams.  At the time the Brees must have hoped that Coleman and Perriman at least would be in a position to contribute straight away but, heading into week 1, Coleman seems to be behind Freeman in Atlanta (although the Brees do at least have Freeman) and Perriman is injured.  Dorsett hasn’t established himself as the Colts #3 option yet and Williams is a 1st year TE so it would be unfair to set too high expectations.  For all that, there is a nice mix of talent and situations there and, looking longer-term, the draft looks positive, particularly with the addition of defensive Swiss Army Knife Shaq Thompson and Jordan Hicks, though whether the Brees needed more linebackers is a question that could be asked (although who am I to judge?)

Areas of Improvement: The Brees have scraped together some talent at RB now though they can’t be happy with the number of committees they’re working with (Atlanta, Cleveland and Tampa, at least to some extent).  WR still looks like a barren wasteland with the uncertainty around Victor Cruz and Pierre Garcon but DeSean Jackson provides a big ceiling each week and there are some young lottery tickets that may pay off in Charles Johnson, Perriman (when fit) and the two Jacksonville receivers.

Areas of Regression: Focusing so heavily on offence leaves the defensive side of the Brees roster looking underwhelming.  The loss of Dareus removes depth and flex options and, even with the additions, the selection of linebackers is very ho-hum.  Money invested into Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett needs to come off this season for the Brees to hold their own on this side of the ball.

Prediction: With few off-season moves set to make a big splash straight away you have to say that the best case scenario would be for the Brees to go 6-7 and finish in the position where their points total should have had them last year.  More likely would be 5-8 or even 4-9 and a high pick in next year’s draft.

Guest Previews 2015 – East Flanders Dungeoneers by Ian Kulkowski

Around The Grounds Free Agency League Business Previews Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

East Flanders Dungeoneers

2014 record

5-8, 4th in Peter.  last in Points for, 9th in Potential Points, last in all play, lost 3 loser ladder rounds to finish last overall.

Firstly, massive Kudos to Pete Conaghan for being willing to take on the total disaster that was the East Flanders franchise.  With Phil’s untimely demise some point before the draft this team was doomed from the start.   Pete has wasted no time in ringing the changes and the current roster bears little resemblance to the one he inherited (particularly on offence with only 9 players surviving from last years roster – including kicker Parkey).

Let’s have a look at how all of these changes have impacted the Dungeoneers prospects for 2015.

Improvement

Pete’s strategy is a long term one, focusing particularly on getting younger on offence.  This is evidenced in the QB position, where the ageing Brees was sacrificed for the longer term potential of Cam Newton.  This move was enhanced with the addition of Tannehil for a few guys picked up off waivers and a back up TE.  This now gives the Dungeoneers a good balance of steady & spectacular at the position.

WR is where the big improvement comes.  The Dungeoneers now boast a receiving corps with an average age of just 24 and stacked with exciting prospects.  With Adams, Allen, Cooper & Marshall the likely starting quartet there’s a chance this could turn out to be one of the best receiving units now, never mind in a few years time.

Regression

All of Conagan’s tinkering has come at a cost.  And that is a big gaping hole at RB that is surely so big it renders any chance of the Dungeoneers competing this year impossible.  Although Pete felt like he had no choice for the long term benefit of he team I find it impossible to justify the trade of Lacy – the team’s one and only stud for the second overall pick.  There is only the slimmest of chances that Lacy delivers less value going forward than White / Cooper and the WR group looks to be strong enough without one of those.

What’s left at RB is a starting pair of Forsett & Blount Hyde and not a great deal in reserve (Hillman, Jennings, Sproles & Woodhead as backup)  This will definitely be Pete’s area of focus with his early picks in next years draft.

Ceiling

WR’s alone will not be enough to carry this team, if Adams makes the most of his opportunity in GB and Allen bounces back to his rookie form then there is potential to break even and finish just outside the playoff positions. The ceiling should get higher in future years as the core Pete has put in place should give solid foundation for years to come.

Floor

There is very little (if any) star quality on the roster at the moment so the floor is a low one.  A repeat of last years showing may well turn out to be a good return if the team doesn’t develop as Pete would hope.  No matter.  This team is it for the long haul.

Prediction

5-8.  A repeat of last years performance with some improving WR’s being offset by a vacuum at RB.  But look out.  If Pete can sort that position out in the next few years this team has the foundation to be a contender.

Guest Previews 2015 – Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules by Pete Conaghan

Around The Grounds Free Agency League Business Previews Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

2014 Record: 7-6, 7th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Offseason Review

Like a woolly mammoth trapped in a tar pit, Kelkowski did very little to help their cause in the trade market, adding only two depth signings in Jason Witten and Doug Baldwin. Who knows, if it is the tar pit of the first round of the playoffs, maybe the team is happy with its situation and does not need to move farther. The bones of Andy Dalton look very white against the black, tarry ground.

Which is a roundabout way of asking, have Kelkowski done enough this offseason? In actual fact they may have pulled off the coup of the offseason, snaffling up Sam Bradford’s brittle body and putting it in their quarterback sack. With Bradford looking great in preseason, and as per Chip Kelly, there only being a 10% chance of him snapping something else, it looks like Kelkowski may prosper.

Added to that, the amazing transformation of Blake Bortles from mild-mannered grocery clerk to Superman [ed – Blake Bortles is The Jaguar] over the preseason (don’t laugh), should ensure Kelkowski don’t have to rely on Kaep’s brain or Romo’s back this season. As a bona fide superhero, Bortles should really have a nemesis. It’s a pity Zach Zenner isn’t a defensive end. In which case, the Champions would surely have taken him in the draft.

Kelkowski also had a really good draft, obtaining a three down back in TA Yellow, and what could be the team’s primary WR in Devin Funchess. Randy Gregory and Danny Shelton look to be very good defensive picks.

Where they will improve: All that being said, Kelkowski may not have done enough outside quarterback to see any immediate improvement, but with three top WRs (this includes a certain J. Maclin, who does not care about your fantasy team) they should be just fine.

Where they will regress: Yellow backs up an already-impressive running back corps which has some fragility issues. Foster is out until at least game 4, and DeMarco Murray should have a decreased workload this year, to prevent him being ground into dust, but it’s expected he will continue to run riot in Philadelphia even on reduced carries. Even if those two contribute less, Former Heisman Trophy etc etc is waiting in the wings. But it’s difficult to see the same production this year over the course of the season.

There are some aging pieces on defense, which the team should address.

2015 Prediction: 8-5, playoff final.

Proudly powered by WordPress & Skyrocket Themes

MENU

Navigation