Author: Commish

About Commish

I am the Commissioner of the DynaBowl Fantasy Football Dynasty League. What I say goes.

Pre-Draft Win-Win Trades

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10 Win-Win Pre-Draft Trades

With around 6 weeks to go before the DynaBowl Rookie draft it’s time to do a little fantasy deck-shuffling. I’m going to suggest 10 trades, one centred on each team, that should be a win for both sides and make sense moving into the 2016 season, and I’m going to start with…

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Needs: Players, picks.

This roster is slowly coming together, with a diligent job being done by GM Pete Conaghan, but it could still use some strengthening across the roster. I wouldn’t be looking to gain any players over 27 years of age, really, and picks would be a bonus. There’s no real bell-cow running back option so that would be ideal, but not essential.

Expendable: Anyone 28 or older, really.

The Trade – Out: Brandon Marshall, WR, ($19, 1 year)

Marshall is 32, and has 1 year left on his reasonable contract. An extension is a prohibitive $74. While he is still producing he’ll only serve to move the Dungeoneers away from the higher picks, when they’re ready to compete he’ll be close to retiring. There is no reason to keep him on the roster. The question is the value. Aging and with only one year left, his value is low so the best they can hope for is a half-decent pick and/or young player.

In: Champions of the Sun give Jay Ajayi, RB ($10/3), 2016 pick 4.10

Contributors can be found in the 4th round, more likely on the defensive side but Matt Jones and Thomas Rawls both went in this range in 2015, while Ajayi is a high ceiling, low floor option. Miami clearly weren’t that keen on him, given their off-season pursuit of CJ Anderson, but he should get a chance this year. He has an injury history too, but he’s the kind of young boom or bust prospect the Dungeoneers could really use. The Champions get a boost in the pursuit of the repeat championship for minimal cost.

Here Comes The Brees

Needs: WR, LB, picks

Reviewing the roster, it’s deeper than I thought it was, with decent options at QB, RB, TE, DT and DE. However, despite the (excellent) purchase of Allen Robinson and the presence of 18 different options, the WRs still lack a little something. After Robinson there’s the declining Fitzgerald, the hobbled Smith, the banned Bryant, and… erm… a lot of mediocrity. No team can be filled with studs but a little more depth would be nice. There’s a bit of a rebuild going on so younger players and/or picks would be a nice return.

Expendable: Most of the wide receivers, anyone who won’t be contributing in 2017.

Out: Devonta Freeman, RB ($8/1)

Given the cap space available, an extension, even if only for a couple of years, should be on the cards, just pull the money forward. However, the management team have indicated that no such thing will happen. Freeman could, of course, be a one season wonder, and an extension could wind up being a millstone, especially if they could get the player back cheaper in 2017 free agency, but if they’re resigned to not competing this year and not signing Freeman to an extension there is no reason not to cash in now.

In: Kelkowski give 2017 3rd round pick (moves to a 2nd round pick if Freeman is a top 5 back or Kelkowski make the DynaBowl)

There’s no WR on this roster that would definitively improve the Brees roster in the longer term and would also make sense for Kelkowski to lose. The trade makes sense for the Brees on two levels – the 2017 draft is supposed to be a deep one, and the price for one year of a player is a good one, and Kelkowski can’t afford to offer Freeman an extension so the Brees know they can have a shot at getting him back in 2017. Meanwhile, Kelkowski get a contributor to their weakened RB corps to round out what is otherwise a pretty competitive line-up.

Tamworth Two

Needs: Cap space, WR, TE, DE, LB

Expendable: Expensive contracts

Tamworth would have been a competitor for Freeman, except they have a pretty decent RB corps already. Instead some WR depth would be nice, and one won’t be picked up in the draft – not one you could expect to contribute immediately anyway as their highest pick is 2.09. Given the money already spent on the roster, though, this is tough. The players with the kind of money they should be looking to save are, at least, the ones with value to the roster – Rodgers, McCoy, Jeffrey, Thomas, Ebron, Keuchley. Of those, the most expendable are McCoy and Ebron…

Out: LeSean McCoy, RB (XX), 2016 pick 4.03

Karlos Williams looked great in year 1 and has something to build on. He poses a real threat to McCoy and Tamworth are keeping him. Freeing up $59 of cap space in 2016 gives Tamworth all sorts of options and losing a player who may or may not be a starter or major contributor is not the worst situation. A deal like this could then pave the way for a trade for Freeman, or any number of other players.

In: DynaForOne Firebirds give 2016 pick 2.05

A bump up in the rounds gives them a chance of picking up a contributor, most likely targeting a WR, with a lower pick focusing on an RB. For the Firebirds, they have the cap space to take a risk on McCoy. They need to do something about their running backs after Lynch retired in the off-season and where CJ Anderson is the only guaranteed starter in 2016. McCoy is a risk but dropping down the draft a little is a risk worth taking, when contributors can still be found at that depth. With 3 other picks in the top 15 they can afford to fall down a little considering McCoy’s talent and upside.

[NB This was going to be the 2.02 pick until that got traded and I couldn’t arsed to rework it]

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Needs: Depth, DT, DE

This is a roster which has subtly come good, if only the players can all stay fit. There’s quality at each position, perhaps with the exception of defensive line. The problem is there aren’t too many sellable assets the Sadness would be happy to sell. Byrant and OBJ both have plenty of time left in their careers so a sale now would only be postponing any potential success. Likewise, the young building block RBs might be desired but logically would stay put while the older ones like Blount probably wouldn’t make much, if anything on the market. You might see Brees as saleable but only 10 starting QBs are needed so it’s a crowded market place, he won’t fetch much at all. So, in needing depth and defensive stars, what desirable assets can they afford to sell?

Out: 2016 pick 1.01

Ezekiel Elliot is the likely number one pick but we saw in 2015 that GM Manboob isn’t afraid to sell a high pick if he’s getting good value. This is a draft not awash with offensive talent, but defensive talent is there to be had so more picks a little lower down the draft might make sense on that front. Likewise, a high number of picks in the top 25 increase the odds of hitting with one of them.

In: Dynasore Losers give 2016 pick 1.04, Donte Moncrief, WR ($2/1), 2016 pick 3.09

With two ageing running backs and little beyond that, the Losers are desperate for a young elite RB option and shouldn’t be afraid to spend to get one. Moncrief has potential and may turn into something but at the moment is still a prospect. He won’t become elite but he should be an adequate WR3/4. The Losers would be reluctant to give him up but with Elliot as the prize they should be prepared to make the sacrifice. The two picks give the Sadness further ammunition to restock in the draft.

Dynasore Losers

Needs: Youth

Expendable: Age

Adrian Peterson. Matt Forte. Jordy Nelson. These are the three best offensive weapons on the Losers roster, and they also have free agent James Jones and retiree Percy Harvin in there. The Losers may already have done the best trade they can do in bringing in Jarvis Landry, exactly the kind of player they need on the roster. The problem is they need to do it another 3 or 4 times.

Out: Adrian Peterson, RB ($35/1)

The Sadness trade above suggests one way they could go, selling some assets to get the best player in the 2016 draft. The alternative is to try to gather as many picks as possible and refresh the talent pool, and the best way to do that will be to sell the aging players off. All three mentioned before are on good deals, with 1, 2 and 3 years left respectively of lower than contract average value. Nelson would probably be the herdest sell due to his return from injury. No one knows if he can be the player he was before it and, at this stage, we don’t know if the Packers will be trying to replace him in the draft. Peterson seems like the obvious sell – he has one year left and is unlikely to be renewed due to his value (by the Losers or any prospective owner) so could be re-won in free agency next year. Why not try to make a profit on him now? The argument against is if Losers GM David Slater believes he can have one last hurrah and win it all before he goes into a full rebuild.

In: Kelkowski give 2017 2nd round pick

Basically the same reasoning stands as for the proposed Devonta Freeman move detailed earlier. The pick is an outright 2nd rather than conditional because Peterson has a far longer history of success. The Losers could, instead, push for Kelkowski’s 2nd round pick in this year’s draft in order to replace Peterson immediately, but in a weaker class they would probably prefer to wait a year for stronger options. Weakening performance in 2016 would also have the potential to push for the number 1 pick in 2017 which would open up some elite options.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Needs: RB, WR, depth

We’ve already discussed how short the Firebirds are at running back, with Lynch’s actual retirement and Gore effectively retired. Ryan Mathews could be in a good spot in Philly now they’ve moved up in the draft (unless they moved up to guarantee they get Elliot), but they could still use a little something more. Likewise, Julio is clearly an elite WR but Sanu is more risky now he’s outside of Cincy, while players like Snead, DGB and Edelman are probably WR3s at best. They have 2 first rounders this year with which to start the restock, but could use some further depth.

Expendable: Everyone?

Out: Julio Jones, WR ($60/3)

OK, so here’s the contentious one. Well, the really contentious one. I needed a blockbuster in this article and here it is – recommending a team sell its best asset. It’s a massive risk, I don’t deny it, and it relies on confidence in the scouting to turn the return into something worthwhile, so how is it justifiable?

The Firebirds have the fewest running backs and wide receivers rostered in the league. And that’s before you factor in that Lynch and Colston are no longer playing. They need to restock. They’re an injury away from not being capable of submitting a valid lineup. Well, a fit lineup. Good job there aren’t injuries in the NFL. Now obviously there will be roster cuts from other teams but stocking up with the dregs aren’t really going to help them. My suggestion is to maximise the return from their best player. He will never be more valuable, and he’s had a few injury concerns in the past. The worst thing that could happen to the Firebirds is keeping Jones and then losing him to injury halfway through the year, destroying both his value to the team and on the trade market.

Instead, cash-in now and rebuild this team. We’ll discuss a fair return for one of the top 3 WRs in the league below.

In: Here Comes The Brees give 2016 pick 3.05, 2 x 2017 1st round picks, 2017 2nd round pick, Isaiah Crowell, RB ($40 total over 4 years), Phillip Dorsett, WR ($21 total over 3 years), Martavis Bryant, WR ($12 total over 3 years),

Firstly, why do the Brees do this? To get one of the best players in the league and become the favourite for the DynaBowl title in 2016 and beyond. Pairing Julio and Allen Robinson together, along with their other offensive weapons makes this team an offensive juggernaut. The question is only how much they have to pay.

2017 is supposed to be a great class, but there are no guarantees so losing both the first round picks they have for a player of Julio’s class is a no brainer. I’m projecting those 1sts to both be lower in the round so a 2nd goes along with it. Alternatively the Firebirds might want to try to get a conditional 2018 first based on where those 17s fall in the draft.

As for players – I would allow the Firebirds to have any offensive players on the roster outside of Luck, Robinson, Lee, Miller, Freeman, Martin, Eifert and Ertz. And perhaps Jackson, but if he was what it took to do this deal I’d give him up. I’ve bundled those together that I think would help the Firebirds most – Dorsett, Bryant and Crowell. They’re all players with question marks next to them – Dorsett and Crowell based on talent and usage, Bryant because of his drug suspensions – but there’s a chance they could net a decent return. The real prize, though, is the picks, which will give GM Neil Hawke the chance to rebuild this roster over the next two years.

Dynablaster Bombermen

Needs: LB, DE, eliteness

No single position leaps out on this roster as being required, but no single position makes you think “They’ve got that locked down, not need to worry about that”. A feeling which starts at QB, where 6 are currently rostered but none feel like a guarantee. Having already traded for Aaron Donald, there’s not really the collateral to deal for another elite player to lift one of the units up a level. Likewise, the weakest units (that aren’t wholly governed by the randomness of interceptions and forced fumbles) are the DE and LB groups and no one is going to sell one of the kind of quality required to pump these units up to the next level. Instead, trying to get some mid-to-late round picks to bolster the defense in the hopes of hitting a home run should be the order of the day.

Expendable: Fringe players

Out: Bilal Powell, RB ($1, 2 years), James White, RB ($1/2)

Both have the potential to score a decent amount of points if they get a chance due to injury but neither is the main guy. Powell has the greater chance to do something as he’s likely to share time with  Forte. They’re both nice options to have, but are surely more suited to the team with the primary backs…

In: Dynasore Losers give 2016 pick 5.04, conditional 2017 5th round pick should either player score 100 points in 2016

Fortunately the Losers have both the primary backs in Forte and Lewis so could grab both for a low pick. Useful insurance policies for sure and if nothing comes of either of them it’s not a huge amount to have given up.

Champions of the Sun

Needs: What do you get for the team that has Trent Richardson? Seriously though, he’d probably just like more depth.

I’m on record as not being a fan of the Allen Robinson trade so, ideally, he’d just undo that, but otherwise the reigning champions are stacked and should look to consolidate their position in any way they can. Other teams may be reticent to deal but there’s one deal which jumps out to me.

Out: 2016 picks 1.05, 1.10

In: DynaForOne Firebirds give 2016 pick 1.02

If the Champions like the look of one player in particular, why not try to move up and grab him. Assuming Elliot is the number 1 pick this would allow the Champions to take whichever WR they prefer. In exchange, the Firebirds end up with 3 picks in the top 10 giving them a greater chance of finding a hit or two on whom to base the future of the franchise. Sure, they don’t get their choice of the top WRs, but that probably shouldn’t be their aim. The two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum – the Champions can afford to fall for one guy, take him and risk a bust. The Firebirds need a hit or two so more choices is better.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Needs: More time and attention in this analysis, RB, TE, DT

Expendable: Yes

Look, the NFL draft is rapidly arriving and this should really go up before then so this ‘analysis’ is pretty weak from here on out. What’s that you say? It’s only weak from here? Fuck you, buddy, did you pay for this content?

Now go look at the Brees’ and Losers suggested trades and pick one of those you like. That’s what Kelkowski should do.

Alternatively, here are some other options: Get Antonio Andrews from the Bombermen for a 6th round pick. DeMarco “Darren Anderton” Murray was known as an injury waiting to happen until his annus mirabilis at Dallas. Now he’s back behind a pretty terrible offensive line, best to get some insurance.

Sorry, I’ve done them a bit of a disservice here, but they have already been mentioned in those 2 other trades. Give me a break. I don’t see you writing a draft preview, do I?

Dyna Hard

Needs: DT (they have 1!), a player who knows how to win in the playoffs?

Expendable: Look, I’ve been trying to say who’s expendable throughout this, but the truth is, any player is expendable for the right price. Who would they actively want rid of though? Jamaal Charles before he breaks down completely (and to save some money), and they have good enough WRs to be able to afford to lose one, if they’re generating greater quality.

Seriously though, I’m going to try to piece together a good trade here, if only because the Hard men haven’t been mentioned yet, unlike those harlots Kelkowski.

Out: Tavon Austin, WR ($16/1), Tyler Lockett, WR ($3/2), 2016 pick 1.08, 2017 1st round pick, 2017 4th round pick

In: Julio Jones, WR ($60/3)

OK, so this is a do-over from earlier, but actually it makes a lot of sense. The Firebirds get 2 young WRs who could prove to be very good players, along with 3 picks, while the Hards end up with Antonio Brown, TY Hilton and Julio Jones to try and get over that final hurdle of … well, a playoff win. The picks aren’t as good as those offered by the Brees, but then the players are arguably better.

Dyna Hard have a good roster that’s not crying out for young players to develop, they’re looking for the missing piece that will put them over the top. The Firebirds have been discussed a lot already, but these would be more useful building blocks.

On the Matter of the Trade of Demaryius Thomas

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Facts:

Demaryius Thomas was traded from the DynaForOne Firebirds to the Tamworth Two on deadline day for Willie Snead, a 2016 1st, a 2017 2nd and a conditional 2018 3rd. The trade was processed at 7:54pm. The deadline is 8pm. The commissioner was otherwise indisposed at this time.

Iit was noted in the main NFL huddle that, according to the rules, picks may not be traded more than 2 drafts in advance. The commissioner, upon being notified of the issue at 10pm, stated to the two teams involved that he was happy for the final detail to be worked out and the trade to stand.

Formal complaints have been raised by two GMs who consider that the trade should not stand as an agreed legal deal was not in place by the deadline. Other GMs have a more ‘shades of grey’ opinion. Given the formal complaints raised, the Commissioner agreed to review the situation.

Review:

I came to a decision on my ruling yesterday and wrote up a formal response. Much more formal than this. I wanted to sit on it and weigh up whether I was making the correct decision or not before I posted it though. Upon reviewing what I had written, I felt I couldn’t stick with it and changed my mind. My words here might not be as thought through as in that original decision, and they come from a slightly different place. Please bear with me. I hope I can explain myself and the ruling adequately.

In reviewing this case I have to concede that the complainants are correct. The trade is not valid according to the rules on the website. The trade was not 100% completed by 8pm on the deadline day as the final, smallest element of the package was technically illegal. That said, the rules for trades are out of date. They allude to commissioner review of all trades before they are put through – a function which was removed after the first season. The rules suggest that all trades are signed off on the forums, and insist that all trades with conditional picks are signed off in this manner by both teams. In the past, teams have not been held to these standards. In addition, in the course of this discussion we all agreed that the rule for preventing picks from being traded more than 2 drafts away was a bad rule and should be removed.

I don’t think any league member would deny that the published rules on the website are out of date. They do not reflect rule changes agreed by the league and they are certainly not strictly followed. They rules were written prior to the league starting and have, on numerous occasions, been found wanting. I take responsibility for this, but I think we can all acknowledge that to get the rules spot on the first time, with no experience of dynasty, let alone salary cap dynasty, was nigh on impossible.

At no point during the League’s existence have we viewed the rules as black and white due to their inadequacies and our ongoing development of understanding of how our league works and how the rules relate to it. There have been countless times when rules have been bent because it was common sense. Nonetheless, I have to come back to the fact that the complainants are correct, allowing the trade is technically a breach of the rules.

However, there are other issues at stake here that need to be factored into the decision. As has been pointed out in the hangouts, where does the leniency end? Somebody stop the leniency! The League has been very lenient over myriad issues, and thus far I am positive everyone has benefitted at some point. And being lenient in this or other cases doesn’t mean people can get away with anything. That’s getting a little too close to a “if you allow gay marriage then that means beastiality is OK” kind of nonsense. I think we can all apply a degree of common sense and agree that one example of leniency doesn’t mean anything goes.

What is the alternative? When I initially wrote up my decision I decided to revoke the trade because, by the letter of the law, it was in breach. My decision went into the consequences of this and I did not like what I saw. The League becoming a police state. Every rule having to be adhered to precisely and my role of Commissioner having to come down hard on all minor breaches. Of course, this is as ridiculous as the anarchy vision of the future presented by leniency. And yet, it allowed for any minor breach to be pointed out and argued over and require a ruling. This process genuinely makes me miserable. I have not enjoyed having to make a decision on this or any other matter. I have not enjoyed the discussion. And I completely acknowledge that in that past I have been a ring leader in this kind of stuff. After a previous ‘discussion’ I looked into the mirror, I looked over the precipice, I didn’t like what I saw. If that leaves me inadequate to run a fantasy dynasty league, then so be it.

So what this ultimately came down to to me is what do I want this league to be? I have said previously that I believe my role as commissioner is to sit back and interfere as little as possible. I should just make sure the league runs by the rules. Theoretically this means that I should revoke the trade. However, my view has changed a little recently. This is a complex league and will need a guiding hand and it is the commissioner’s role to be that guiding hand. By my hand, I shape the league. The league is, in some respects, a reflection of me, or what I want to see in the world.

So how do I see the world? I don’t agree with every rule that’s out there, and I want people to see and evaluate all the circumstances that surround events and apply common sense. And I want people to generally be cheerful and have fun. I want our league to be fun, and if our league stops being fun, then I’m out. There are times when that point comes close. Some of those points I have entirely been at fault for. Probably more often than any other league member. Sometimes I get worked up about issues merely because I care about the league and want it to work. I want it to be perfect. But it can’t be perfect, nothing can. But it can be fun.

So I want to apply common sense to the league in matters of dispute. I want to take a step back and evaluate what is sensible, not what is “legal”. I want everyone to obey the spirit of the law, not the letter of the law. So, if we’re applying common sense here, what is the common sense ruling?

Let’s say the trade gets processed at 6:54, not 7:54. The issue is flagged and Neil and James resolve it, amending the terms of the deal by 7:45. Here is my question for you – what is different from this happening slightly after the 8pm deadline? Literally what is different in the league? Nothing.

Does that mean I should be allowed to do a trade now? No – the deadline was on Thursday.
But the deadline was 8pm and this was sorted out just after 8pm… Well, the deal went through before 8pm and they two teams made an honest mistake.
But a mistake nonetheless – one that means the trade isn’t valid… Was there an effort made to cheat the league? Was there ill intent in this deal? Aren’t all of us friends trying to have some fun before the sweet release of death?
Come on! OK – you want to go with the rules… for a trade to be reviewed by the commissioner, at least 3 league members need to protest the trade and only 2 have made formal protests, so none of this post exists and the trade can go through with the original terms (including the 2018 conditional pick).

Look – I get where the complaints come from, but nothing was done maliciously and the difference between them doing things correctly in time and making a minor corrective arrangement outside of the time limit is literally nothing. The results on the website are the same, the line-ups are the same, it changes nothing.

The common sense ruling is the one I made initially – the trade goes through and the amended conditional term is:

If DT finishes in the top 10 in 2016 across 16 weeks TT will give their 2017 3rd and 6th round picks and DFO will give their 5th.
If DT finishes outside the top 25 in 2016 DFO will give their 2017 6th
If DT finishes between 11 and 25 no further picks will change hands.

Guest Previews 2015 – East Flanders Dungeoneers by Ian Kulkowski

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East Flanders Dungeoneers

2014 record

5-8, 4th in Peter.  last in Points for, 9th in Potential Points, last in all play, lost 3 loser ladder rounds to finish last overall.

Firstly, massive Kudos to Pete Conaghan for being willing to take on the total disaster that was the East Flanders franchise.  With Phil’s untimely demise some point before the draft this team was doomed from the start.   Pete has wasted no time in ringing the changes and the current roster bears little resemblance to the one he inherited (particularly on offence with only 9 players surviving from last years roster – including kicker Parkey).

Let’s have a look at how all of these changes have impacted the Dungeoneers prospects for 2015.

Improvement

Pete’s strategy is a long term one, focusing particularly on getting younger on offence.  This is evidenced in the QB position, where the ageing Brees was sacrificed for the longer term potential of Cam Newton.  This move was enhanced with the addition of Tannehil for a few guys picked up off waivers and a back up TE.  This now gives the Dungeoneers a good balance of steady & spectacular at the position.

WR is where the big improvement comes.  The Dungeoneers now boast a receiving corps with an average age of just 24 and stacked with exciting prospects.  With Adams, Allen, Cooper & Marshall the likely starting quartet there’s a chance this could turn out to be one of the best receiving units now, never mind in a few years time.

Regression

All of Conagan’s tinkering has come at a cost.  And that is a big gaping hole at RB that is surely so big it renders any chance of the Dungeoneers competing this year impossible.  Although Pete felt like he had no choice for the long term benefit of he team I find it impossible to justify the trade of Lacy – the team’s one and only stud for the second overall pick.  There is only the slimmest of chances that Lacy delivers less value going forward than White / Cooper and the WR group looks to be strong enough without one of those.

What’s left at RB is a starting pair of Forsett & Blount Hyde and not a great deal in reserve (Hillman, Jennings, Sproles & Woodhead as backup)  This will definitely be Pete’s area of focus with his early picks in next years draft.

Ceiling

WR’s alone will not be enough to carry this team, if Adams makes the most of his opportunity in GB and Allen bounces back to his rookie form then there is potential to break even and finish just outside the playoff positions. The ceiling should get higher in future years as the core Pete has put in place should give solid foundation for years to come.

Floor

There is very little (if any) star quality on the roster at the moment so the floor is a low one.  A repeat of last years showing may well turn out to be a good return if the team doesn’t develop as Pete would hope.  No matter.  This team is it for the long haul.

Prediction

5-8.  A repeat of last years performance with some improving WR’s being offset by a vacuum at RB.  But look out.  If Pete can sort that position out in the next few years this team has the foundation to be a contender.

Guest Previews 2015: Dynasore Losers by Ian Kulkowski

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Welcome to a series of GM-led previews of the various teams of the Dynabowl Fantasy Football League. The opening preview is of the Dynasore Losers, GMed by David Slater and is brought to you by the letters K, U, L, K again, O, S, K for a third time and I.

Dynasore Losers

2014 record
8-5, 1st in Peter. 2nd in Points for, 2nd in Potential Points, 2nd in All play, semi final losers, 3rd place

“Everyone else’s team sucks” & “My way is definitely best” is what Slatz would almost certainly say if he were to write his own preview. Unfortunately looking through the train wreck that is their old, broken roster I can see nothing but pain and heartache ahead for the Losers this season.
But first, let’s try and focus on the positive a bit and see where the Losers have improved from last year…

Improvement
2 words. AP. That’s it. Without the child beating former superstar’s return to the game, this roster would be as dead as the majority of Josh Gordon’s brain cells. Will the return of not-human Peterson be enough to give this team a chance of repeating last year’s success? Whilst Peterson is capable of putting up some ridiculous numbers, even he will probably not be enough to carry this roster back to the playoffs.
Oh the other area of improvement for the Losers is kicker & punter (as described in great detail in the Commissioner’s preview). But so what? They’re kickers & punters.

Regression
Where to begin. Slatz built his roster around a solid aged core with the aforementioned Peterson and QB Peter Manning as lynchpins to the roster. After failing spectacularly during the final 5 weeks of last season there are now serious questions over Peter’s position as stud QB. With Manning potentially dropping down (and maybe out of) the top 10 QBs, this takes the Losers from a position of strength to bunch of middling options.
The addition of Winston (who definitely hasn’t sexually assualted anyone) to accompany Raiders sophomore Carr should provide a good future at the position, but it is likely too early for either of these to help the team too much this year.
There is a similar story at RB. Last years’ star performer (4th ranked overall RB) Forte will turn 30 during the season and is surely hitting the decline phase of his career. Depth at the position is also an issue with the loss of Stewart & Robinson in free agency. There are only 2 NFL starters amongst the RB corps so this is definitely a position which will cause GM Slatz some headaches as the season wears on.
More trouble at WR as the team has lost it’s anchor (and 2nd ranked WR last year) in Jordy Nelson. With Josh Gordon never likely to return the Losers are left with Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith & Larry Fitzgerald as their probable starting WR’s. Hardly the most fearsome foursome. TE also sees a potential downgrade with Graham’s move to Seattle.
On the defensive side of the ball, injuries, free agency and early retirement have left holes in the Losers roster. There are still good starters at most positions but the depth is now near non existent.

Ceiling
If Peter returns to his record breaking best, Adrian has a career year and the Losers find some receivers from somewhere then maybe all is not lost and this team has an outside shot of making the playoffs.
Then again, maybe not!

Floor
The floor’s (thankfully) the limit for the losers this year. If things don’t go their way then avoiding the prized first pick in the 2016 draft could be deemed a success.

Prediction
5-8. A complete reversal of last year and barring some miracle this losers franchise is going nowhere fast. GM Slatz has a big decision on his hands. Does he stick with the plan and try to compete as best he can, or does he sell the family silver and go into full blown rebuild mode.

2015 Commish Previews: Dyna Hard

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Team: Dyna Hard – Chris Braithwaite/Steve Smith Jnr

2014 Record: 5-8, 1st pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Todd Gurley (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB), David Cobb (RB), Tyler Lockett (WR), Bradley Pinion (P)

Free Agency – Joseph Randle (RB)

Trade – TY Hilton (WR), Kendall Wright (WR)

Significant Losses:

Trade – Julian Edelman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Allen Hurns (WR)

Preview:

In 2014 the Hard had an AWE of 7.12 wins, good for 4th best in the league, and the joint biggest differential in the league, and was over 96% certain to win a minimum of 5 games. Schedule was undoubtedly the biggest factor in the end of season record and the opportunity to select first in the draft.

In addition, while Dyna Hard were a middle-of-the-pack 5th in terms of total points scored, they were the second worst coached team in the league 25.2% of potential points left on the bench. In fact, based on potential points, Dyna Hard were the best team in the league. Some of that inefficiency was down to the difficulty of picking the right defensive players each week, with defensive points so variable, you’d still hope for better selection overall in 2015.

Given all of the above, you’d expect the team to be better in 2015 regardless of any moves made, but the two key incoming players could make the Hard the team to beat this season. TY Hilton gives them a pretty fearsome WR triple, alongside Antonio Brown and Sammy Watkins and while Todd Gurley may not be a part of this offence for the first half of the season, they have probably the strongest four-pronged RB core in the league, with Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris and Joseph Randle, who looks set to be the starter behind Dallas’ all-world offensive line.

Randle, of course, won’t repeat the feats of DeMarco Murray last year, even if he thinks there was some ‘meat left on the bone’ in 2014, but he still stands a good chance of being a top 10 back in 2015.

The rest of the offence probably only rates as adequate, but I’m not sure that matters with all the strength on view at RB and WR. It’s a little bit of a shame that the talent is split 4 RBs and 3 WRs given the league limits allow 3 RBs and 4 WRs. Perhaps a trade will come later in the season, when Gurley is producing and bye cover is dealt with.

On the defence, non-human JJ Watt returns, and Greg Hardy will be suiting up from week 5 giving them a pretty fearsome DE pairing, and there are above average players at most positions. The concern is in the depth. If injuries hit, they could hit hard. Out of 7 LBs on the roster, 4 of them basically didn’t play in 2014 (Alonso, Mathis and Weatherspoon didn’t suit up, Clowney needn’t have bothered), and while there’s talent there, you’ve got to be concerned about how much play you’re going to get out of them in 2015.

Finally, the team are pretty hard up against the cap. At time of writing they need to drop 9 players, assuming 2 more go to the taxi squad and are $11 over the cap. They’ll get under no problem – the minimum savings there are $11 – but there’s little wriggle room for bringing in cover if players move to IR in the season.

Verdict:

With a little better management and a little better luck in the schedule, this team would have made the playoffs in 2014. With the improvements made in the off-season and barring injury to key components, that should be the minimum expectation in 2015.

Prediction:

8-5 and eventual champions. The record is a conservative estimate. In 2014, 3 teams finished with a league best 8-5 record. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 9-4 or better but given the degree of variation in scoring 8-5 seems appropriate.

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