Author: Commish

About Commish

I am the Commissioner of the DynaBowl Fantasy Football Dynasty League. What I say goes.

Proposed Scoring Changes for 2015

November 15, 2014

Mr Maxwell H Cubberley has contributed a suggestion for amendments to the scoring for the DynaBowl Fantasy Football Championships 2015 onwards. If you would care to read his words, they will follow shortly.

Now, in fact.

Binning the Big Plays: Proposed Scoring Changes for 2015

Big Plays

As anyone who has been on the receiving end of an 80 yard pick 6 or a double strip-sack game from a DE will likely tell you about (at length) the Dynabowl IDP game is currently dominated by big plays. Each INT or FF is worth 10 points, each defensive TD is worth 6 points and all return yards on fumbles and interceptions are valued at 0.1 per 1 [NB – only INT yards are counted – ed]. The aforementioned 80 yard pick 6 currently nets your CB 24 points for that one play. This is particularly painful as INTs are often quite random and not much to do with particularly good play from a CB or S. Meanwhile, a strip-sack is worth 15 points (16 if you’re a DT) and that’s not including the possibility of your strip-sacker recovering it (3 more points) and returning it for a TD. Somewhere lurking out there is a 34 point strip-sack, 100 yard fumble recovery TD. Probably for JJ Watt. I’m surprised he hasn’t done it already.

Bearing this in mind there have been several solutions proposed to try and even out some of the scoring. Below are the proposed rule changes for 2015:

The point return for INTs and FFs to be reduced from 10 to 6 for all players
The points for INT and FF recovery yards to be reduced to the same as punt return yards (0.05 per 1 rather than 0.1 per 1)
The points for passes defended (possibly a more accurate gauge of defensive backs’ skills) to be increased from 2 to 3 for CBs and Ss and 1 to 2 for everyone else.

Evening Out the Linebackers

Anyone who based their pre-draft rankings of LBs on those suggested by popular IDP sites might be slightly confused as to why their LB corps isn’t producing as expected. This is because most IDP leagues are tackle-based, giving plenty of points for tackles and less for sacks, FFs and INTs. Our league is a big play league, focussed on those game-changing moments and the players who make them. For all that there seems to be too much of a disparity between middle linebackers (those players for whom tackling is their bread-and-butter) and outside linebackers (more of the edge rushers looking to hit the QB in the backfield). With the tackle points as low as they are it’s difficult for all but the most elite MLBs to compete with their outside compatriots.

With that in mind, a second rule change has been proposed, to slightly increase the points scored by solo tackles. The idea is not to swing the league from a big play league to a tackle-heavy league, but just to allow a few more MLBs to ease towards the top of the LB rankings and even the distribution out a little. The proposed change is:

Points for solo tackles (not assists) to be increased from 0.5 points per tackle to 0.75 points per tackle.

Over the course of a 100 solo tackle season (a very good but not outstanding season) that equates to 25 more points.

The Difference

To try and illustrate what difference this would make I’ve crunched it all into MFL and can present the difference as it would have pertained to the 2013 season. I’ll compare both the new points system and the old points system to look for the difference.

Top 100 Breakdown

Here is a breakdown of the top 100 scorers in 2013 by position. This should show how the points changes affect the make-up of the top bracket of scorers.

Position	Top 100 Players – Old Points	Top 100 Players – New Points
QB	26	26
RB	20	19
WR	21	20
TE	3	3
PK	0	0
PN	0	0
DT	4	4
DE	4	3
LB	16	20
CB	3	2
S	3	3

This indicates a very slight increase in the value of LBs (though 2 of the additional 4 were numbers 99 and 100 in the top 100).

To look at the IDP players in more detail, I’ll breakdown just the top 100 defensive players.

Position	Top 100 IDPs – Old Points	Top 100 IDPs – New Points
DT	11	10
DE	18	16
LB	38	39
CB	17	21
S	16	14

Again, the changes seem fairly minimal in terms of the split amongst the positions. Going deeper, CBs receive a bit of a boost and Ss a small hit (presumably due to a higher number of pass defence opportunities than Ss) but the broad make up is the same.

The indication is that these changes don’t make a huge difference to the proportional make-up of the overall top 100 and the IDP top 100. They shouldn’t cause one position to become more valuable going forward than it was at the draft.

Specific Player Value

There are still two checks to make. The first is specific player value. Sure, maybe CBs as a whole aren’t more valuable but what if the top 10 CBs under the new points are 10 completely different players? What if the #1 DT is now the #10? Below is the top 10 at each defensive position under the new points and the old. Their position in the opposite points scoring system is also included for reference.

Defensive Tackle	Position – Old Pts	Position – New Pts	Shift
Kyle Williams, BUF	1 (204.5)	1 (212)	= (+7.5)
Gerald McCoy, TBB	2 (180.25)	2 (193.6)	= (+13.35)
Nick Fairley, DET	3 (172)	3 (171.2)	= (-0.8)
Ndamukong Suh, DET	4 (152)	4 (163)	= (+11)
Marcell Dareus, BUF	5 (134)	5 (144.25)	= (+10.25)
Cullen Jenkins, NYG	6 (122)	10 (120.25)	-4 (-1.75)
Sen’Derrick Marks, JAX	7 (118.25)	6 (126)	+1 (+7.75)
Jared Odrick, MIA	7 (118.25)	7 (124.75)	= (+6.5)
Clinton McDonald, SEA	9 (115.8)	11 (118.4)	-2 (+2.6)
Michael Brockers, STL	10 (115)	9 (120.5)	+1 (+5.5)
Kendall Langford, STL	12 (109.25)	8 (122.25)	+4 (+13)

No huge changes here which would be expected as DTs don’t have as many FFs as LBs and DEs and rarely catch INTs. Any loss of points from FFs seems to have been compensated for with the tackle bump with most coming out a few points better over the course of the season. Although Cullen Jenkins drops 4 places in the ranks he actually only ends up 1.75 points down under the new points.

Defensive End	Position – Old Pts	Position – New Pts	Shift
Robert Quinn, STL	1 (250.75)	1 (237.9)	= (-12.85)
JJ Watt, HOU	2 (191.75)	2 (199)	= (+7.25)
Justin Tuck, NYG	3 (145)	4 (147.15)	-1 (+2.15)
Greg Hardy, CAR	4 (144.5)	3 (151.25)	+1 (+6.75)
Muhammed Wilkerson, NYJ	5 (138.85)	8 (140.3)	-3 (+1.45)
Cameron Jordan, NOS	6 (138)	7 (142.55)	-1 (+4.55)
Chandler Jones, NEP	7 (137.25)	6 (143.25)	+1 (+6)
Calais Campbell, ARI	8 (133.5)	5 (146.85)	+3 (+13.35)
Carlos Dunlap, CIN	9 (132.75)	10 (134.6)	-1 (+1.85)
Jared Allen, MIN	10 (130.75)	9 (137)	+1 (+6.25)

Like DT, DE doesn’t show too many major shifts here. The same 10 players make up the top 10 under both the new and the old systems and although there is some shuffling of positions (Wilkerson and Campbell particularly) the actual season ending point totals don’t shift drastically with most seeing an increase of 1 to 7 and only sack-machine Robert Quinn seeing a reduction.

Because we all start 3 or 4 LBs I’ll compare the top 20 at this position. I’ve also noted (where I can) when the player is an MLB or an OLB (we should be looking for MLBs to move up the rankings in the new points).

Linebacker	Position – Old Pts	Position – New Pts	Shift
Robert Mathis, IND – OLB	1 (242)	3 (221.75)	-2 (-20.25)
Lavonte David, TBB – MLB	2 (232.95)	1 (235.85)	+1 (+1.9)
Karlos Dansby, ARI – MLB	3 (199.05)	2 (223.65)	+1 (+24.6)
Navorro Bowman, SF – MLB	4 (198.55)	4 (208.4)	= (+9.85)
Jerell Freeman, IND – MLB	5 (185.05)	5 (180.35)	= (-4.7)
Alec Ogletree, STL – OLB	6 (173.55)	8 (173.4)	-2 (-0.15)
Tamba Hali, KCC – OLB	7 (167.75)	12 (158.3)	-5 (-9.45)
Daryl Smith, BAL – MLB	8 (165.1)	6 (176.3)	+2 (+11.2)
Kiko Alonso, BUF – MLB	9 (158.3)	10 (163.8)	-1 (+5.5)
John Abraham, ARI – OLB	10 (155.5)	18 (150.25)	-8 (-5.25)
DeAndre Levy, DET – MLB	11 (155.1)	11 (163.55)	= (+8.45)
Paul Posluszny, JAX – MLB	12 (152.4)	7 (176.2)	+5 (+23.8)
Mychal Kendricks, PHI – MLB	13 (152.25)	13 (156.55)	= (+4.3)
Danny Trevathan, DEN – MLB	14 (149.9)	15 (155.45)	-1 (+5.55)
Vontaze Burfict, CIN – MLB	15 (144.95)	9 (173.25)	+6 (+23.3)
Nick Roach, OAK – OLB	16 (144.75)	20 (148.25)	-4 (+3.5)
Ryan Kerrigan, WAS – OLB	17 (143.75)	22 (142.5)	-5 (-1.25)
Luke Kuechly, CAR – MLB	18 (142.55)	16 (155.15)	+2 (+12.6)
Brian Orakpo, WAS – OLB	19 (136.65)	21 (145.95)	-2 (+9.3)
Thomas Davis, CAR – OLB	20 (136)	17 (153.15)	+3 (+17.15)
Derrick Johnson, KCC – MLB	21 (134.4)	14 (155.5)	+7 (+21.1)
DeMeco Ryans, PHI – MLB	25 (126.85)	19 (149.05)	+6 (+22.2)

The change to the points can clearly be seen here with OLBs that rack up pressures and FFs (e.g. Mathis, Hali, Abraham) taking a hit and prime tacklers (e.g. Posluszny, Dansby, Burfict) getting a significant boost. Although this was the desired effect the fact that, even in the old system, 12 of the top 20 LBs were MLBs already does seem to call into question the need for this change. The 2014 stats paint a picture of a system that heavily favours OLBs but that could be a result of the number of injuries to or change in situations of big scoring MLBs.

I’ll show the CB and S tables back to back as I would expect both to be affected similarly by this change.

Corner Back	Position – Old Pts	Position – New Pts	Shift
Brandon Boykin, PHI	1 (159.475)	3 (147.675)	-2 (-11.8)
DeAngelo Hall, WAS	2 (157.65)	1 (158.2)	+1 (+1.55)
Richard Sherman, SEA	3 (151.95)	5 (139.2)	-2 (-12.75)
Alterraun Verner, TEN	4 (142.275)	2 (154.575)	+2 (+12.3)
Tim Jennings, CHI	5 (138.1)	8 (133.55)	-3 (-4.55)
Tramon Williams, GBP	6 (135.5)	4 (141.25)	+2 (+5.75)
Captain Munnerlyn, CAR	7 (130.85)	6 (138.55)	+1 (+7.7)
Corey Graham, BUF	8 (121.55)	14 (124.9)	-6 (+3.35)
Logan Ryan, NEP	9 (119.7)	32 (108.85)	-23 (-10.85)
Adam Jones, CIN	10 (118.9)	12 (126.8)	-2 (+7.9)
Lardarius Webb, BAL	19 (106.8)	7 (136.6)	+12 (+29.8)
Leodis McKelvin, BUF	26 (101.6)	9 (128.35)	+17 (+26.75)
Joe Haden, CLE	12 (115.95)	10 (127.85)	+2 (+11.9)
Safety	Position – Old Pts	Position – New Pts	Shift
Eric Berry, KCC	1 (165.65)	1 (170.65)	= (+5)
Troy Polamalu, PIT	2 (161.35)	3 (155.05)	-1 (-6.3)
Antrel Rolle, NYG	3 (160.8)	2 (163)	+1 (+2.2)
Michael Mitchell, CAR	4 (141.55)	9 (135.9)	-5 (-5.65)
William Moore, ATL	5 (139.35)	7 (138.05)	-2 (+1.3)
Tashaun Gipson, CLE	6 (137.55)	6 (138.15)	= (+0.6)
Earl Thomas, SEA	7 (130.85)	11 (128.95)	-4 (-1.9)
TJ Ward. CLE	8 (126.95)	4 (144.4)	+4 (+17.45)
Barry Church, DAL	9 (126.5)	5 (144.1)	+4 (+17.6)
James Ihedigbo, BAL	10 (123.15)	10 (130.7)	= (+7.55)
Eric Weddle, SDC	12 (118.75)	8 (136.55)	+4 (+17.8)

As you can see the changes are much more impactful on the CB position than the S position. At CB there are big positive swings for the likes of Webb (2 INT, 23 passes defended) and McKelvin (1 INT and 20 PD) and big negative swings for such as Sherman (8 INT and 6 PD) and Ryan (5 INT and 10 PD). This is what you’d expect from the rules. It’s also worth noting that although Logan Ryan lost 23 ranks, he actually only scored 10.85 points less under the new points. In general, the points seem to bunch CBs a bit more towards the top which I think reflects the reduced wild-card factor of INTs over steady pass defending.

It is worth mentioning, at this point, that CB is an incredibly volatile position from year-to-year anyway. None of last year’s top 10 CBs are in this year’s current top 10 CBs. In fact, only Adam Jones and Alterraun Verner are even in this year’s top 32 CBs.

Oddly, at Safety the changes are nowhere near as large. Possibly this is a result of Safeties having more all-round play capability or maybe it’s a reflection of the fact that Safety interceptions are more skill-based. At any rate, there are a few changes, notably bumps for TJ Ward and Barry Church (both had a notably higher number of solo tackles than those around them), but nothing too major.

Summary of Findings

It’s noticeable, looking through the week-by-week performances of players, that these changes, overall, raise the floor and lower the ceiling of IDP production. What was a 40 point game is often now a 30 point game and what was a 3 point game is now a 5 point game. The average points per game and total season points, in general, trends slightly upwards with the bottom-end of players brought a bit closer to the top-end whilst still keeping elite levels of performance for top players.

Some players whose games are built around big plays have taken something of a hit but, in most cases, this is not hugely significant and shows more in comparative score rankings than in actual point production. The reduction of big plays and increase in passes defended seems to have had the desired effect, reducing scoring ceilings but not overall scores and not reducing the CB and S points-scoring. Although the big changes at CB look scary, as mentioned above, the position tends to turn over a lot from year-to-year anyway. If anything, these new changes may make the position more reliable as tackle numbers and pass defence numbers are more consistent year to year than INTs and FFs.

The question of the increase in points for tackles is hazier. The proportion of MLBs and OLBs in the top ranks of the position could be a natural seasonal fluctuation. It doesn’t make a massive difference to the overall points-scoring at the LB position (with only the same small upward trend seen in every position). The new system produces a better balance between very steady LBs with big tackle production and those who get sacks, FFs and INTs. In the current system, a player has to make 10 solo tackles to score the equivalent of a sack. In the new system they have to make 7. The latter seems more in line to me with what one would consider a ‘good game’ but everyone can make their own mind up.

If you want me to produce more information to look at this just ask.

Replacement Level: Week 9

October 31, 2014

Commish

So this week, Chris Braithwaite, GM of the Dyna Hards, has taken on the baton of The Replacements, and a bang up job he’s done too. Except for not having scored David’s efforts from week 7. Of course, you could lay that all on Neil Hawke of the DynaForOne Firebirds who failed to produce anything for week 8. But hey, Chris is here now, so let’s blame him eh? Anyway… on with Chris’ Replacements…

Player	Projection
QB Mike Glennon	14.560
HB Donald Brown	3.925
HB Roy Helu	6.000
WR Stevie Johnson	4.200
WR Jarius Wright	4.200
WR Jacoby Jones	3.375
WR Philly Brown	3.200
TE Chase Ford	3.425
TE Jacob Tamme	1.400
K Cairo Santos	7.400
P Brad Wing	0
DT Ian Williams	0.500
DE Ray McDonald	1
DE Jason Hatcher	1
LB Perry Riley	2.5
LB Bruce Irvin	1.5
LB Jabaal Sheard	0.5
LB Vincent Rey	2
CB Adam Jones	5.575
CB Sean Smith	3.550
S Dashon Goldson	2
S Husain Abdullah	4.025
Total	75.835

The options are Mike Glennon or no one. Hey Lovie, now I know how you feel. Honestly, what I’d give for Kyle Orton or something.

Donald Brown has a chance to be sneaky effective as the steady veteran hand behind Branden Oliver, so he could grab a bit of yardage on receptions and as a change of pace (that change being down to “no pace”.)

Roy Helu has been good for about 40 to 50 yards a game combined for most of the season, and there’s always a chance for a TD I guess, so he’s option 2. The Vikings D is mediocre against the run and terrible defending passes to RBs, so he might be able to break a couple of mediocre plays.

I’d normally play 3 RBs, but honestly there are absolutely no other options.

Alas, pickings are still fairly slim at WR. Stevie Johnson is a must play. Washington has been pretty dreadful against the pass most weeks, so Jarius Wright is a potentially good play, so he can slot in. Football Outsiders reckons that Pittsburgh have been pretty dreadful against #3 WRs, so Jacoby Jones might be able to take advantage there. Maybe it’ll be another shootout. And for my number 4, I fancy a girl called Philly, so I’m taking Philly Brown of the Panthers. Look, that can’t be any worse logic than any of the other picks.

The pickings at RB are so ridiculously slim I have to drop down to TEs and hope for some short TDs. Let’s go back to the “Washington sucks” well (it is a deep well) and grab Chase Ford of the Vikings as my #1 guy, despite his injury. He looks like the only chap with a chance at being actually useful, so the other guy is gonna have to be a hope for a 1 catch, 1 yard, 1 TD line. That is Jacob Tamme’s career, so yep, that’s happening.

Cairo Santos. Look, he’s Brazilian, his name is a capital city and he’s playing the Jets at home. Lets not overthink this.

Where MFL doesn’t even bother to make projections. My rule has always been “pick the guy with the worst offence against the best defence”, hence Dyna Hard’s roster having the punters for the Jags and Raiders. Which takes my two best options away here. The best option seems to be to hope that the Steelers used up most of their aerial attack last week, with the only person capable of doing anything in the air being P Brad Wing. Yep, a pun will work.

The Rams OL managed to lose Scott Wells, Rodger Saffold and Jake Long to injury, moving Greg Robinson to LT. So its now weaker at 4 positions, and gave up a tonne of sacks last week anyway. Williams should be able to get a tackle for loss or two at a minimum.

The logic above also holds for Ray McDonald of the 49ers. The Vikings OL isn’t great shakes either, and Jason Hatcher isn’t a bad bet to grab a sack.

A theme is likely to emerge on this defence: some teams suck, lets hope they suck towards specific players. The Vikings aren’t very good, so Perry Riley isn’t a bad start. Bruce Irvin grabbed a couple of sacks against the Panthers last week on consecutive plays, and he gets to play against the Raiders this week. He should be able to grab one. The Bucs aren’t great, and Jabaal Sheard is due a sack or two, so maybe this is his week. And Vinny Rey is good for a big play every few weeks and gets to play the Jags, so a Bortles pick or fumble or whatever seems to be decent odds.

1: Highlight “Bortles pick or fumble or whatever seems to be decent odds.” 2: CTRL+C. 3: CTRL+V. 4: Type Adam Jones. It’s extremely tempting to double down and pick one of Terence Newman or Leon Hall, but for the sake of variety lets remember that the Jets are playing and Sean Smith exists. He might have a decent chance at a pick if the Jets have a QB who can throw it close enough to him.

I have heard of Dashon Goldson and the Brian Hoyer train is slowly falling off the tracks, so he might have a chance to do something or other quite decent. Beyond that, safety options are very limited. And just in case Vick’s passes don’t get close enough to Sean Smith, lets give Husain Abdullah the chance to grab one or two.

Replacement Level: Week 7

October 16, 2014

Commish

League Business Replacement Level No Comments

After my second resounding Manboob victory of the season, Geoffrey has seen fit to leave me the replacements. So let’s start by “thanking” him with a review of how he did do and could have done:

		Proj	Actual	FA Rank	Best	Best Points
QB	Stanton	4.28	0	7=	Mike Glennon, TB	18.56
RB	Rodgers	5.15	0.9	18	Fozzy Whittaker, CAR	11.6
RB	Ogbannaya	3.5	0	28=	Roy Helu, WAS	6.6
RB	Robinson	2.825	3.6	7
WR	Johnson, S	2.9	5.3	15	Andre Holmes, OAK	24.1
WR	Wright	3.9	3.8	18	Robert Woods, BUF	15.8
WR	Ginn Jr	2.2	2.375	25	Brandon Lloyd, SFO	14
WR	LaFell	4.6	21.7	2*	Chris Hogan, BUF	13.2
TE	Carlson	4.4	1.4	14	James Casey, PHI	8.6
TE					Lance Kendricks, STL	8.2
PK	Cantazaro	6.4	10.45	1*	Mike Nugent, CIN	9.7
PN	Ryan	0	5.675	10	Steve Weatherford, NYG	12.425

DE	Ngata	2	1.25	25=	Vinny Curry, PHI	15
DE	Gholston	1	4.5	10	George Johnson, DET	13.75
DT	Guion	0.5	3	13=	Evander Hood, JAC	13
LB	Robinson	2.5	5	20*	Tahir Whitehead, DET	26.95
LB	Sheard	0	1	54=	Dan Skuta, SFO	23.5
LB	Durant	1.5	4	26=	Justin Tuggle, HOU	16.05
LB	Graham	1	19	3*	Alex Okafor, ARI	16
S	Ishmael	4	3	14=	Rashad Johnson, ARI	38.8
S	Jefferson	5.65	1	26=	Dontae Johnson, SFO	20
CB	Cox	0	6.25	12*	Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN	22.65
CB	Arrington	1.5	1.25	43*	Buster Skrine, CLE	19.5

		59.805	104.45			367.985

Much like Bill Belichick Mangboob is a coach / GM, and much like Bill he spends a lot of time being grumpy in hoodies. This is not where the similarity ends, as both Bill and Manboob show a knack for coaching the shit out of his players, getting far more than the traditional 110% out of his players with an impressive 175% improvement. Unfortunately, also like Bill, Manboob is a terrible GM specialising in identifying players who have an awful lot of shit to be coached out, and the 104 he scored, while impressive against the predictions, was a long way short of the near 370 possible.

Overall Manboob finds himself coaching the Replacements to their second lowest score, and didn’t manage to beat a single proper team, leaving Pete’s week one effort still the best the Replacements have managed, and the only time the replacements have beaten a DynaBowl franchise.

		Proj	Actual	*CtSOoT Score**	Teams beaten
Week 1	Pete Conaghan	89.385	150.74	1.69	3
Week 2	Move along nothing to see here
Week 3	Ben Hendy	89.795	126.64	1.41	0
Week 4	James Goodson	52.4	97	1.85	0
Week 5	Iran Kulkowski	79.2	144.535	1.82	0
Week 6	Geoffrey Manboob	59.805	104.45	1.75	0
Week 7	David Slater	72.025

Anyway, enough trashing Manboob (power-ranked 10^th out of 10 right now), it’s time to introduce Week 7’s replacements.*Coaching the Shit Out of Them

Ladies and gentlemen (well, just gentlemen) please could we have a tepid and disinterested round of applause for your offence!

Starting Quarterback – Charlie Whitehurst (Ten): Ranked 4^th – Projected 9 points

This really comes down to a choice between 4 potential starters – Orton, Fitzpatrick, Genome Smith and Whitehurst.

Half man, half beard... ALL BEARD — Half man, half beard… ALL BEARD

Fitz may look like he’s eating a squirrel through his helmet grill, but he’s likely to be a liability against a Pittsburgh defence who have held opposing QBs to very low scores (joint 4th best in fantasy against QBs), and sadly doesn’t score any points for his squirrel-munching antics.

Orton is up against an even more effective Minnesota defence – 4th best in fantasy against QBs despite facing Matts Ryan and Stafford, Tom Fucking Brady, Adam Rodgers and Brees in 5 of their 6 weeks.

Genome, is facing the Patriots – better than both Pittsburgh and Minnesota in terms of destroying a QB’s fantasy totals – and he is a truly fucking terrible QB.

This leaves Whitehurst, who is playing Washington’s incredibly forgiving defence, a defence so bad it made King Cunt Nick Foles looks good. Also Charlie has magnificent hair. The only real risk is that Jake Locker is fit enough to play Sunday, but even if he is, it’s likely Whitehurst gets 2 quarters and he could still outscore the others in that time.

Starting Running Backs –

Roy Helu (Was): Ranked 1^st – Projected 5.6pts

Jonathan Stewart (Car): Ranked 2^nd – Projected 5.5pts

To say the running back options are thin would be an understatement. They’re anorexic, a graveyard of terrible selections.

Helu, who sees regular change of pace work in the Washington backfield is a steady option, and with a TD could put up a decent score.

The chaos in Carolina’s backfield means that the fit again Stewart (last week’s running back of the week in Carolina, Fozzy Whittaker, is questionable as is the week before’s Darrin Reaves) is likely to start and see the majority of carries when Cam doesn’t decide to do it all himself.

Starting Wide Receivers –

Andre Holmes (Oak): Ranked 3^rd – Projected 5.4pts

Brandon Lloyd (SF): Ranked 27^th – Projected 2.2pts

Jerricho Cotchery (Car): Ranked 4^th – Projected 5.3pts

Robert Woods (Buf): Ranked 6^th – Projected 4.525pts

Holmes is a no-brainer, and I’d be surprised if he were available for next week’s Replacement Level as he’s put up 13.4 and 24.1 points in the two games either side of the Raiders bye week with Carr starting to find his feet. Oakland has a good matchup this week, with Arizona having the most generous passing defence involved in this weekend’s games (31st in points to wide-receivers).

Lloyd has shown flashes of his old self, and knows Denver well, having been the NFL’s leading receiver in his time as a Bronco. A deep threat might prove necessary against a Denver defence which has been one of the best against opposing receivers.

Cotchery has been consistently average for Carolina so far, but with Benjamin suffering a mild concussion should see a greater workload this weekend. The Packers pass defence has been pretty good; holding opposing wideouts to less than the fantasy average, however this is as much a product of playing some average offences as anything else, and Miami lit them up for 156 receiving yards and 2 tds last week. Carolina is far from a dominant passing defence, but Green Bay has regularly demonstrated their difficulties handling a talented mobile QB and Cotchery could be the beneficiary.

Woods has emerged as a decent target for Orton and has seen a lot more looks in the passing game in recent weeks, unfortunately for the Bills, they’ve played a run of excellent defences over that period and that continues this week against the Vikes. 10 to 12 targets is a realistic number for Woods, and if he catches 7, he could find himself on the end of an 80 yard day, which would be good enough for my 4^th choice.

Starting Tight Ends –

Jermaine Gresham (Cin): Ranked 2^nd – Projected 4.5pts

Ben Watson (NOS): Ranked 13^th – Projected 1.9pts

Ah, Jermaine Gresham… Sabotaging fantasy teams with his promise and and lack of production for about 5 years now. With the Bengals struggling for bodies who can catch passes Gresham had his best week of the year – in fact a better week than the whole year put together. Another 60+ yard outing beckons against Indy who’ve been generous to TEs so far this year.

With Jimmy Graham out, Watson is the usual number 2 tight end and should see a nice little uptick in his production. As a Jimmy Graham owner, I can testify first hand to how Drew Brees appears to have forgotten his Tight End exists so far this year, but at a thin position Watson has upside. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Kicker –

Caleb Sturgis (Mia): Ranked joint 4^th – Projected 6.4pts

A veritable treasure trove of riches at Kicker compared with the other offensive positions. Gould would be a fine choice, but Sturgis should get lots of opportunities to kick against a fairly poor Chicago defence, and has only missed once this year – from 48 yards.

Starting Punter –

Steve Weatherford (NYG): Ranked N/A – Projected 0pts

Not projecting points for punters is a major oversight by MFL. Weatherford is the second best punter so far amongst free agents, and he was the best in the league last year. His leg may be sore after last weekend, but he, unlike the rest of the Giants’ offence, could at least reflect on a job well done against Philly.

On to the defence… As a general rule, projected scores for defensive players are a joke. We’re dealing with big play scoring, and the league doesn’t seem to project big play scores, as such the projections are essentially useless as a guide here.

Starting Defensive Ends –

Haloti Ngata (Oak): Ranked 1^st – Projected 2pts

George Johnson (Det): Ranked joint 38^th – Projected 0pts

Ngata is a steady presence, with the potential for a big game, and his ability to make plays on passing downs matches up well against their pass happy offence.

Johnson is in good form, with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss in his last two games. Dallas abused New Orleans’ offense, and Detroit bring a much better defensive unit to the game. Johnson can ride his hot-streak to make Drew Brees life slightly more miserable. Also, fuck you Drew Brees.

Starting Defensive Tackle –

Sammy Lee Hill (Ten): Ranked joint 25^th – Projected 0pts

Tennessee have a good defence, tough, but not that special – that’s why their players litter the DynaBowl free agency pool. They also have the Washington Redskins in town, so expect to see a lot of them on my team this week.

Starting Linebackers –

Kamerion Wimbley (Ten): Ranked joint 31^st – Projected 1pt

Pernell McPhee (Bal): Ranked joint 63^rd – Projected 0pts

Eric Walden (Ind): Ranked joint 31^st – Projected 1pt

Jabaal Sheard (Cle): Ranked joint 63^rd – Projected 0pts

These are mostly match-up based. Tennessee and Washington, Baltimore and Atlanta (who are terrible on the road) and Cleveland and Jacksonville should provide plenty of opportunities for these guys to make plays. Indy play the Bengals, who’ve shown one of the better lines in the early stages of the season, but this is a trend thing. The Bengals line seems to be getting worse, and the Indy defence seems to be finding its feet. Walden has three sacks on the year and five tackles for a loss, I like him to have a good game.

Starting Safeties –

Michael Griffin (Ten): Ranked 2^nd – Projected 5pts

Roman Harper (Car): Ranked 9^th– Projected 3pts

Griffin is actually projected worse than his Tennessee safety colleague (15 points!), but has consistently out-performed him this year so far. Backing Kirk Cousins to throw stupid interceptions is basically playing with house money.

I was tempted to double down on Tennessee, but while Harper might be old, but he’s still pretty good in the passing game. The scoring we use doesn’t worry about players getting lit up, or defences who can’t stop their opponents – Green Bay figure to see a fair amount of the ball against Carolina, and Rodgers will make plays all day long, meaning at worst Harper should provide a reasonable return in tackles, defended passes and the like, with the potential for a big play along the way.

Starting Cornerbacks –

Adam Jones (Cin): Ranked 1^st – Projected 5.2pts

Blidi Wreh-Wilson (Ten): Ranked joint 2^nd – Projected 4pts

Jones plays in a good Cincy secondary who should get the chance to make plays against pass-happy Andy Luck, who rarely lets a game pass without one interception at least. Jones was also used as a returner last week, and that little point bump can only help.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson possesses an excellent name. He had a huge game against the Jags, and while it’s highly unlikely he’ll repeat that, Tennessee are playing the Redskins, and it could be jackpot time for anyone in that secondary. I’m also loathe to pick two players from the same club at corner or safety, else Newman would have been a good play here.

And so, without further ado, your full week 7 replacements (and the projected best replacements teams)

		Proj	Rank among FA	Best	Best Points
QB	Charlie Whitehurst, TEN	9	4	Kyle Orton, BUF	12.06
RB	Roy Helu, WAS	5.6	1	Roy Helu, WAS	5.6
RB	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	5.5	2	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	5.5
WR	Andre Holmes, OAK	5.4	3	Andrew Hawkins, CLE	6.2
WR	Brandon Lloyd, SFO	2.2	27	Jarius Wright, MIN	6.1
WR	Jerricho Cotchery, CAR	5.3	4	Andre Holmes, OAK	5.4
WR	Robert Woods, BUF	4.525	6	Jerricho Cotchery, CAR	5.3
TE	Jermaine Gresham, CIN	4.5	2	Lance Kendricks, STL	9
TE	Ben Watson, NOS	1.9	13	Jermaine Gresham, CIN	4.5
PK	Caleb Sturgis, MIA	6.4	4=	Robbie Gould, CHI	7.4
PN	Steve Weatherford, NYG	0	N/A	N/A	0

DE	Haloti Ngata, BAL	2	1	Haloti Ngata, BAL	2
DE	George Johson, DET	0	38=	Osi Umenyiora, ATL	1
DT	Ian Williams, SFO	0.5	7=	Damon Harrison, NYJ	1
DT	Sammie Lee Hill, TEN	0	25=	Vince Wilfork, NEP	1
LB	Kamerion Wimbley, TEN	1	31=	Jacquian Williams, NYG	3
LB	Pernell McPhee, BAL	0	63=	Jon Beason, NYG	2.5
LB	Eric Walden, IND	1	31=	Philip Wheeler, MIA	2.5
LB	Jabaal Sheard, CLE	0	63=	Tahir Whitehead, DET	2.5
S	Michael Griffin, TEN	5	2	George Wilson, TEN	15
S	Roman Harper, CAR	3	9	Michael Griffin, TEN	5
CB	Adam Jones, CIN	5.2	1	Adam Jones, CIN	5.2
CB	Blidi Wreh-Wilson, TEN	4	2=	Terence Newman, CIN	4

		72.025			111.76

I’d nominate manboob, for nominating me, but that seems like a vicious circle, and he’s already had his chance and blown it. So for next week I’d like to nominate manager of the Firebeards, Neil to see if he can’t beat his actual team’s score for the week.

Replacement Level: Week 5/6 Addendum

October 9, 2014

Commish

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Geoffrey Manboob is a good man. And thorough. Well, not that thorough but he is busy, and I won’t have you holding that against him.

He missed a couple of things in his replacement level post this week and I am here to update those. Firstly, his own projected score, which is as follows:

PK	Cantanzaro	Ari	6.4
PN	Ryan	Seattle	0
QB	Stanton	Ari	4.28
RB	Rodgers	Atl	5.15
	Ogbannaya	Car	3.5
	Robinson	Jac	2.825
WR	Johnson	SF	2.9
	Wright	Min	3.9
	Ginn Jnr	Ari	2.2
	LaFell	NEP	4.6
TE	Carlson	Ari	4.4
DE	Ngata	Bal	2
	Gholston	TBB	1
DT	Guion	GBP	0.5
LB	Robinson	Was	2.5
	Sheard	Cle	0
	Durant	Dal	1.5
	Graham	Phi	1
S	Ishmael	Atl	4
	Jefferson	Ari	5.65
CB	Cox	SF	0
	Arrington	NEP	1.5
Total			59.805

Second of all, there’s the scoring of Iran’s team from week 5. Ian was projected a total of 79.2 points. According to his post. I do not know if this is true. But let’s see how his team actually wound up doing…

PK	Bullock	Hou	4
PN	Schmidt	Buf	10.125
QB	Fitzpatrick	Hou	4.46
RB	Helu	Was	5.8
	Smith	Atl	14.5
WR	Austin	Cle	5.4
	Cotchery	Car	4.6
	Sanu	Cin	13
	Wright	Min	2.7
TE	Gresham	Cin	1.5
	Harbor	Jac	2.2
DE	Ayers	NYG	1
	Thornton	Phi	12.5
DT	Hankins	NYG	16.5
LB	Bostic	Chi	1.5
	Davis	NYJ	2.75
	Hawthorne	NOS	2.25
	Robinson	Was	3
S	Adams	Ind	12.5
	Moore	Den	0.5
CB	Allen	Pit	19.5
	Jackson	Hou	4.25
Total			144.535

So there we go. He came out over 65 points better off. Well done Iran.

Replacement Level: Week 6

October 9, 2014

Commish

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Brought to you by the one and only Geoffrey Manboob…

Many thanks to Iran for nominating me to complete this week’s replacement team after I beat him again. This is always a tricky prospect given the size of everyone’s rosters and with injuries and bye weeks in full effect, but given how bad I always seem to do, I’m not holding out much hope for my selected 22 “Expendables”.

General Thought Process

The players that are available are generally high risk/reward players. Fringe stars who could score you 15 points in one week but only score 1.5 for the remainder of the season. In fact, most rookie gambles have already been stashed away. Due to this, I’ve tried to avoid being influenced by total player scores for the season or the MFL predictions weekly predictions. Instead I’ve tried to pick players who have good match-ups as well as some level of consistency over all their starts. I have probably picked a lot of the higher scoring free agents but I’ve tried not to be overly persuaded by this statistic.

The Team – Skill Positions

Obviously the most important part of any fantasy side is the skill positions, so I’ll pick these first:

PK – Chandler Cantanzaro (Ari)

Cantanzaro is Arizona’s rookie kicker who has had a great start to his NFL career. He’s been steady through his first 4 starts and should continue this against Washington this week

PN – Jon Ryan (Sea)

Difficult to know how much the Seahawks will need to punt against the Cowboys, but what impressed me in week 5 was the quality of Seattle’s punt coverage. Ryan had excellent distance and hang-time on his kicks, forcing the opposition to start deep within their territory. The Cowboys’ defense has been a surprise this year, so Ryan may see plenty of action.

Offense

QB – Drew Stanton (Ari)

Stanton has done well stepping into Carson Palmer’s shoes, but struggled last Sunday when the Broncos gave him a bit of a battering. Week 6 sees a good matchup for Arizona at home against Washington and their soft secondary. The Cardinals have some great receiving targets, so they should be able to move the ball downfield effectively through the air as Washington are one of the most generous defenses for fantasy QBs

RB – Jaquizz Rodgers (Atl)

Running backs by committee in Atlanta and one that seems to be growing. Rodgers provides the speed option out of the backfield, so he could be at the races if he makes it to the second level (see his TD touchdown against the Giants). It’s difficult to know how much action he’ll see, but with the threat of injury always hanging over Steven Jackson, he could quickly become the feature back. Also his pace against Chicago’s linebackers could make a difference.

Chris Ogbonnaya (Car)

Someone has to run the ball in Carolina and as the last man standing, that someone appears to be Ogbannaya. While Riverboat Ron will be hopeful that Jonathan Stewart can take some snaps on Sunday, it would appear the Ogbonnaya will continue to shoulder the majority of the load. Carolina face the Bengals this week who were taken apart on the ground by Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in Week 5.

Denard Robinson (Jac)

Wildcard selection because the pickings at RB are very slim. I’m a believer of sticking to my philosophy, which is selecting 3 running backs and 4 wide receivers. Robinson continues to improve and has looked lively when carrying the ball this year. While he won’t see the majority of snaps, hopefully he can exploit some third down situations for big yardage. Plus he was the cover star of NCAA Football 2014

WR – Stevie Johnson (SF)

Odd selection seeing as I just sacked him from the Dynasty of Sadness, but he’s too good not to select here. Yes, he’s hamstrung by Kaep’s inability to play QB, but he appears to have won the 3rd receiver position in San Francisco and they’ve facing one of the worst pass offenses in the league. He should make a handful of catches and maybe even bag a touchdown.

Jarius Wright (Min)

This all rests on my love of Teddy B. In Bridgeater’s only start, Wright was used effectively in the screen game. While Detroit are a much sterner test than the porous Atlanta defense, I’d expect Norv Turner to run a similar game plan, allowing Teddy to complete plenty of short passes to keep the chains moving. While it’s too early to properly judge, Wright had some decent chemistry with Bridgeater.

Ted Ginn Jr (Ari)

As per Drew Stanton, I expect Arizona to more the ball well through the air. Ginn has the added advantage of being the 3rd receiver, therefore “covered” by the largely ineffective EJ Biggers or injured Tracy Porter. While that is appealing, what tips Ginn over the edge for selection is the fact he’s a top return man against one of the most shambolic special teams in the history of football. I wouldn’t rule out a touchdown for him.

Brandon LaFell (NE)

So, I’m low on Brady, the Patriots seem to be a run first team and they deploy 2 TE sets. Why have I gone for LaFell. Well, he’s the only receiver who can catch a ball. He’s the deep threat that allows the things above to work. I’ve been fairly bullish on LaFell all season and against a tough but limited defense in Buffalo, i think he could do well (if Tim can throw this week).

TE – John Carlson (Ari)

Any receiver playing in the seam against Washington will score touchdowns. John Carlson is in prime position to go all Larry Donnell this week. If Housler decides to take the Donnell role, Carlson could easily replicate Giants backup TE Daniel Fells with a touchdown.

Defence

DE – Haloti Ngata (Bal)

Baltimore’s very own Mr Interception this season. He’s had two big games and he’s a disruptive presence at the line against a poor Tampa Bay side that can’t run the ball well. Mike Glennon should see a fair amount of him.

William Gholston (TB)
Gholston has been steady through his first 4 games (after missing week 1), but that is partly what I’m looking for. I like the matchup this week against a stretch-zone running side like Balitmore. Getting pressure at the edge should lead to tackles and some pressure on Flacco, who struggled against an average Colts defense last week.

DT – Letroy Guion (GB)

Letroy Guion had a break out performance last week in a key position for the Packers defense. While he’s not done much before the blowout win over the Vikings last week, I like the matchup against Miami, who rush a lot between the tackles and have poor pass protection for Ryan Tannehill.

LB – Keenan Robinson (Was)

He’s quick, athletic and apparently good in coverage, which is why Perry Riley has been picking up the seem receivers. Robinson should be active against Arizona who will look to use the speed and ellusiveness of Andre Ellington as a receiver. Robinson has the size to challenge for passes to TEs or even a Larry Fitzgerald.

Jabaal Sheard (Cle)

Another pick based on steady performance. Sheard has been consistent and this week sees the Browns up against the Steelers who are enjoying a strong start to the season by LeVeon Bell. This selection was for a player who I expect to busy with tackles on a pretty tough Browns defense.

Justin Durant (Dal)

He’s might be the last man standing in Dallas who can play linebacker, but he’s had a good start to the season in a defense that has surprised many of us. He’s only played 3 of the 5 Dallas games this year, but he has plenty of tackles and a few forced fumbles. In week 6, Dallas face Seattle who will be looking to get their ground game going early on.

Brandon Graham (Phi)

Very consistent through the first 5 weeks as Graham seems to be resurrecting his career under Chip Kelly. It will be a tough assignment playing outside linebacker against the Giants, but there should be plenty of opportunities for his to rush and pressure Eli. With the Giants still running the ball, he should be busy with tackles too.

S – Kemal Ishmael (Atl)

Playing safety against Jay Cutler is normally a good sign for an interception. While Atlanta don’t have the best secondary, Ishmael is good enough to catch a Cutler pick.

Tony Jefferson (Ari)

Jefferson has been pretty impressive at safety this season. This week he faces Washington and the erratic decision making of Kirk Cousins. Cousins has more ups and downs than a yo-yo. After a good performance against Seattle, he’s due to regress. The strong Cardinals run defense should force him to air it out two. Jefferson could be set for a big game.

CB – Perrish Cox (SF)

3 Interceptions already for Cox and this week he gets to line up against whichever body that St Louis can agree to play quaterback. Cox could be the best opportunity for The Replacements posting a decent score this week.

Kyle Arrington (NE)

Are you sold on Kyle Orton as the guy that will save Buffalo’s offense? No, neither am I. While Orton isn’t as bad as EJ Manuel, I can see him making some bad throws this week. What Orton is good enough to know is don’t throw to Revis, which should be great for Arrington.

Well, that ended up taking a lot longer than I expected. I might as well finish off with my suggestion for next week’s GM. While ideally I would like Mark to show us how the Roster Doctor really does it, he’s far too busy eating bananas to even remember to draft or pick up waivers in the Chatterbowl. Therefore, I’d like to nominate “Mr Fantasy Football” himself, D-Slatz, to GM the Replacements in week 7.

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