Tag: TY Hilton

2015 Commish Previews: Dyna Hard

Team: Dyna Hard – Chris Braithwaite/Steve Smith Jnr

2014 Record: 5-8, 1st pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Todd Gurley (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB), David Cobb (RB), Tyler Lockett (WR), Bradley Pinion (P)

Free Agency – Joseph Randle (RB)

Trade – TY Hilton (WR), Kendall Wright (WR)

Significant Losses:

Trade – Julian Edelman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Allen Hurns (WR)

Preview:

In 2014 the Hard had an AWE of 7.12 wins, good for 4th best in the league, and the joint biggest differential in the league, and was over 96% certain to win a minimum of 5 games. Schedule was undoubtedly the biggest factor in the end of season record and the opportunity to select first in the draft.

In addition, while Dyna Hard were a middle-of-the-pack 5th in terms of total points scored, they were the second worst coached team in the league 25.2% of potential points left on the bench. In fact, based on potential points, Dyna Hard were the best team in the league. Some of that inefficiency was down to the difficulty of picking the right defensive players each week, with defensive points so variable, you’d still hope for better selection overall in 2015.

Given all of the above, you’d expect the team to be better in 2015 regardless of any moves made, but the two key incoming players could make the Hard the team to beat this season. TY Hilton gives them a pretty fearsome WR triple, alongside Antonio Brown and Sammy Watkins and while Todd Gurley may not be a part of this offence for the first half of the season, they have probably the strongest four-pronged RB core in the league, with Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris and Joseph Randle, who looks set to be the starter behind Dallas’ all-world offensive line.

Randle, of course, won’t repeat the feats of DeMarco Murray last year, even if he thinks there was some ‘meat left on the bone’ in 2014, but he still stands a good chance of being a top 10 back in 2015.

The rest of the offence probably only rates as adequate, but I’m not sure that matters with all the strength on view at RB and WR. It’s a little bit of a shame that the talent is split 4 RBs and 3 WRs given the league limits allow 3 RBs and 4 WRs. Perhaps a trade will come later in the season, when Gurley is producing and bye cover is dealt with.

On the defence, non-human JJ Watt returns, and Greg Hardy will be suiting up from week 5 giving them a pretty fearsome DE pairing, and there are above average players at most positions. The concern is in the depth. If injuries hit, they could hit hard. Out of 7 LBs on the roster, 4 of them basically didn’t play in 2014 (Alonso, Mathis and Weatherspoon didn’t suit up, Clowney needn’t have bothered), and while there’s talent there, you’ve got to be concerned about how much play you’re going to get out of them in 2015.

Finally, the team are pretty hard up against the cap. At time of writing they need to drop 9 players, assuming 2 more go to the taxi squad and are $11 over the cap. They’ll get under no problem – the minimum savings there are $11 – but there’s little wriggle room for bringing in cover if players move to IR in the season.

Verdict:

With a little better management and a little better luck in the schedule, this team would have made the playoffs in 2014. With the improvements made in the off-season and barring injury to key components, that should be the minimum expectation in 2015.

Prediction:

8-5 and eventual champions. The record is a conservative estimate. In 2014, 3 teams finished with a league best 8-5 record. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 9-4 or better but given the degree of variation in scoring 8-5 seems appropriate.

2015 Commish Preview: DynaForOne Firebirds

Team: DynaForOne Firebirds – Neil Hawke

2014 Record: 7-6, 10th pick, Superb Owl Champions

Significant Additions:

Draft – Diral Green-Beckham (WR), Eric Kendricks (LB), Javoris Allen (RB)

Free Agency – Jonas Gray (RB),

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Frank Gore (RB), Charles Clay (TE), DeAndre Levy (LB), Martellus Bennett (TE), Julian Edleman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Ron Parker (S), Da’Norris Searcy (S)

Significant Losses:

Retirement – Troy Polamalu (S)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Ryan Tannehill, QB), TY Hilton (WR)

Preview:

First of all, congratulations should be given to the Firebirds who were ridicuously dominant in the second half of the fantasy season, culminating in a massive score in the two-week Superb Owl contest. After the first four weeks of the season, DFO was the most consistent team and only scored below 190 points once.

In the regular season, AWE rated DFO has being worth 7.33 wins, just slightly over the 7 wins achieved, the smallest difference in the league. They had a 72% chance of reaching 7 wins, behind only the Losers and Kelkowski. They snuck into the playoffs despite losing on the last day of the regular season due to the Bombermen’s capitulation to Kelkowski, and while the Bombermen top-scored in week 14, no one can deny DFO’s playoff performance in which they ranked 2nd, 1st and 1st in scoring across the 3 weeks.

All that success was built on the offense – the defence only scored more points than the Dungeoneers and the Sadness – and so it was no surprise when Hawke moved to address this in the off-season. The question is did they give up too much in the quest for that extra defensive strength. With crazy people Russell Wilson and Philip Rivers on the roster, losing Ryan Tannehill was a good move – he was probably worth with Frank Gore or the 2.05 pick in the draft, the fact that both were received along with a couple of other pieces is exceptional business.

TY Hilton for, effectively, Alec Ogletree and a small bump up the draft is another matter. Ogletree is a very good option but the lack of consistency in defensive players scoring but it still raised some eyebrows. Now, if the drop from Hilton to Edelman is less than the gap between Ogletree and the replacement level player who would have made the roster then this has been well calculated but it’s a big risk.

Perhaps the most eyebrow raising move was the dispatching of Hill, a player who could make the leap into elite RB status in 2015, for a couple of older defensive pieces. Still the net gain across all the trades is probably fair if not an outright win.

All that said, Lynch, Anderson and Gore are an excellent running back triumvirate, while Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas are possibly the best WR combo in the league. Sanu, Royal and Edelman should all contribute and, at tight end, they have perhaps the best combination of 4 players in the league. Unfortunately they can only play two at once.

On paper the defence certainly looks stronger than last year but as mentioned in prior previews, defensive depth can be a double edged sword with variable scoring not necessarily working well with difficult starting decisions. Equally, they’ve probably just jumped up to league average.

Verdict:

More depth on defence and less on offense. For me, I’ll take the depth at the more reliable positions, but with good management this could reap some big rewards. This is a team that can beat anyone on its day but in a stronger Tim Division they will be hard pushed to repeat. Another winning record is definitely achievable but how much more is in question.

Prediction:

7-6 and missing the playoffs on head-to-head. When teams are level it’s really difficult to know who will go through. My suspicion is that this team isn’t in the top 4 teams of the year, but with the way schedules and scoring go, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t make the playoffs. I doubt they’ll be as dominant as they were in the second half of the season but will still be a strong competitor nonetheless.