Tag: stats

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week One

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Once the final scores are tallied each week, I, Maximilian Cubberley, feed them into a colourful spreadsheet to produce spurious stats that range from the inaccurate to the irrelevant.  Last season I kept this to myself for the most part but now, you lucky bunch, you get to share in the fun too!  Here’s some stats complete with half-arsed analysis from week 1 of the new season.  As always, when we start something new we look to the past for validation.  Let’s see how everyone’s week 1 compared to last season.

Don’t Take Offence

A lot changed in the off-season.  Players were cut, players were traded, players were drafted, all David’s linebackers retired.  Here’s a sweeping overview of the top offences for week 1 vs the top offences from last season.

Top 5 Offences in 2015:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (125 points on average)
  2. Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules (120 poa)
  3. Dynasore Losers (116 poa)
  4. Champions of the Sun (110 poa)
  5. DynaHard (108 poa)

Top 5 Offences in Week 1:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (132 points)
  2. DynaHard (122 points)
  3. Tamworth Two (115 points)
  4. East Flanders Dungeoneers (110 points)
  5. Champions of the Sun (107 points)

Firebirds still sit top of the pile with Champions of the Sun also holding rough position.  DynaHard have powered up the rankings powered by free agent signing Joseph Randle and the surprising competence of the Tennessee Titans offence.  The news is not so good for Kelkowski though where an injury to Arian Foster, Jeremy Maclin’s new position as ‘A Chiefs’ Pass Catcher Who Isn’t Travis Kelce’ and Julius Thomas’ need to break his own hand to avoid having to play for the Jags has dropped them out of the top 5 and resulted in a loss of 14 points from their average.  They can console themselves with the fact that at least they’re not the Dynasore Losers though who plummet from 3rd place to 9th after one week with a staggering loss of 42 points from last season’s average.  Although many predicted a sharp drop-off for Slater’s boys I don’t think anyone can have expected this and the fans will be hoping that this is a blip for the Broncos not the whole story as the Losers’ offence looks lost without Manning and Sanders as Jordy Nelson is also gone for the season.

On the other hand, maybe we should all just take solace in the fact these stats clearly mean nothing.  I mean, the freshly re-branded East Flanders Dungeoneers have somehow appeared in the top 5 there gaining 16 points over their average from last year.  Time will tell if the improvement is sustainable.

As a general note, whilst there are obviously big swings in points from one week to the next it should be noted that for both offence and defence, 4 of the top 5 teams at the end of last season were also in the top 5 in week 1 of last season.

On the Defensive

Top 5 Defences in 2015:

  1. Champions of the Sun (80 poa)
  2. Tamworth Two (79 poa)
  3. DynaHard (77 poa)
  4. Here Comes the Brees (75 poa)
  5. Dynabummer Blastermensch (75 poa)

Top 5 Defences in Week 1:

  1. DynaHard (115)
  2. Champions of the Sun (90)
  3. Here Comes the Brees (71)
  4. DynaforOne Firebirds (65)
  5. Dynasore Losers (61)

As with Offence we can see the Champions of the Sun holding steady and DynaHard showing improvement for what was already a good unit.  Both teams should be encouraged by week 1 of this season and take it as a sign that they can improve on their positions from last season.  Worryingly for the rest of the league, the Firebirds have held steady on offence and improved on defence, cracking the top 5 in week 1 when they finished 2015 as the worst defensive unit.  This improvement is in no small part due to a big improvement at linebacker where Derrick Johnson’s return seems to have sparked life into the team.

Both the Tamworth Two and the Dynabunny Boostermonks dropped out of the top 5 in week 1.  For the Hogs this may not be more than a blip.  They scored 61 points on defence, which is a significant drop but it was a quiet week for elite rushers Chandler Jones and Olivier Vernon that should not become the new norm for these players.  The Dynaboomer Bustermuffs dropped from 75 points to 39 in week 1, in large part due to a dismal 2.5 point effort from their defensive line of Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams.  Whilst this looks more alarming than the story for the Hogs you can’t look at those three names and say you expect single-digit defensive line performances going forward.  The Bambimoons should bounce back next week.

Don’t Be Down on D

Some of you may be looking at your week 1 performances with a frowny face, worrying, particularly, about performance on the defensive side of the ball.  With an average score of 64.5 on D this week the league is running at nearly 10 points under the average defensive performance than last year.  There’s good news however as defensive point scoring trended up as the season went along last year.  In weeks 1 to 5 last season, the average defence scored 65.1 points.  In weeks 10 to 14 the average score jumped to 77.1.  A lot of defensive positions are volatile, particularly DT, CB and S and it takes a while to pinpoint who the best players on the roster (or the wire) are for the coming season.  Chances are that you will see your defences start to pick up more points as the season goes along and getting ahead of that knowledge curve in those volatile positions will help with that.

First to Worst

Now it’s time to overreact!  Which units on which teams were good last season and terrible in week 1?  Let’s find out.

  1. Champions of the Sun RBs – 2015 rank: 3rd, Week 1 rank: 10th.  With Le’Veon Bell and Lagarette Blount suspended, CJ Spiller injured and the Cleveland Cabal traded away it was no surprise to see the Champions rushing attack falter in week 1.  Starting only two players for a combined 8.3 points it must have been painful viewing for the Dayman, even if it doesn’t seem to have cost him the win (disclaimer: scoring adjustments on Thursday are likely to make this statement false very shortly).
  2. Dynasore Losers LBs – 2015 rank: 1st, Week 1 rank: 10th.  As with the Champions’ rushers above, David Slater can’t have been surprised to see his linebacking corps disintegrate.  DeAndre Levy released, Terrell Suggs injured, Tamba Hali another year older and, worst of all, Chris Borland retiring has left the Losers with a makeshift unit heaped on the shoulders of Ryan Kerrigan.  It may pick up (to be honest, they scored 8 points between them this week, it couldn’t get worse) but we won’t be seeing the Losers back to the top of the charts at this position this year.
  3. East Flanders Dungeoneers and Dynasty of Sadness Special Teams – 2015 rank: 4th and 3rd, Week 1 rank: 9th and 10th.  It’s a sure sign that teams have been focusing their off-season efforts in the wrong places when special teams takes a hit.  Despite how commonly acknowledged it is, both Pete Conaghan and Geoffrey Manboob seem to have forgotten that kickers and punters are the lifeblood of the team.  If this course is not corrected immediately I foresee a dismal season ahead for both teams.

Last in the Past

Now let’s look at some of the units that have improved vastly over last season based on week 1 performance.

  1. East Flanders Dungeoneers Running Backs – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  When the Dungeoneers gave up Eddy Lacy for the 2nd pick in the draft it seemed like Pete Conaghan was accepting that sub par was the new par at running back.  When he then traded away Lagarette Blount it seemed the white flag was already waving.  Little did we know that Carlos Hyde was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson.  Hyde put up 168 yards and 2 TDs in week 1 against the Vikings.  Whilst you might question the sustainability of this, Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings contributed another 17 points and the unit was only narrowly pipped to #1 by an Ameer Abdullah and Eddy Lacy-led Sadness rushing unit.  The Dungeoneers won’t get 47 points from this lot every week but they seem to be in a position to sustain a good performance for the season.  They won’t win anything if they don’t sort out their special teams though.  Seriously.  Sort out your special teams, Pete.
  2. Dynaforone Firebirds Linebackers – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  Julius Peppers was a lone bright spot for the Firebirds last season at linebacker.  This improvement may need to be taken with a pinch of salt as, despite coming 2nd on the week, the Firebirds’ linebackers put up a good week, not a great week.  Derrick Johnson is a big plus for them though and Brandon Graham will have better days ahead.  The unit is not deep though so an injury in the wrong place or age catching up to Peppers could see the Firebirds dropping back down the rankings again.

That’s it from me for week 1.  Theoretically I will be doing more pointless stats in the coming weeks but, realistically, I’ll probably not be bothered.

What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Defence)

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This is the part Manboob has been waiting for – the safeties (and the rest of the defence). So without further ado, let’s get straight into it…

While it might seem sensible to go deeper and consider the 2nd and 3rd rounds, it’s ultimately too low a contract in the third round and the range of players it brings in makes it a bit of a crap shoot to go that low and hope for anything more useful to arise from it.

Defensive Ends

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01 $20, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Mario Williams		 171.50
145.00
157.75		 158.1 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.02 $19, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014		 Cameron Wake
Greg Hardy
Robert Quinn		 165.75
144.50
155.75		 155.3 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07		 $18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 5 2012
2013
2014		 John Abraham
Muhammed Wilkerson
Jerry Hughes		 164.50
138.85
137.50		 147.0 Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
1.08 $13, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Antonio Smith
Cameron Jordan
Everson Griffen		 147.75
138.00
131.75		 139.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Carlos Dunlap
Chandler Jones
Demarcus Ware		 147.15
137.25
130.05		 138.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.10 $11, 4 years 9 2012
2013
2014		 Michael Bennett
Carlos Dunlap
Carlos Dunlap		 133.75
132.75
125.50		 130.7 Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years		 10 2012
2013
2014		 Jared Allen
Jared Allen
Calais Campbell		 132.50
130.75
118.80		 127.4 Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
Trent Cole (127.88)
Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 12 2012
2013
2014		 Mario Williams
Osi Umenyiora
Chris Clemons		 131.25
124.80
113.75		 123.3 Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014		 Cameron Jordan
Rob Ninkovich
Charles Johnson		 130.50
119.25
113.00		 120.9 Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
Kevin Carter (115.09)
Cameron Wake (114.91)
Cliff Avril (114.87)

Financially speaking you’d be paying a defensive end more than everyone except Quinn and Watt, so at the very top of the draft you’d be looking for a seriously talented player and any end taken in the first two rounds should be a viable starter over a 4 year period.  One thing to consider when taking an end is that this is a position where the best players have good longevity – Peppers, Allen, Suggs, Watt, Freeney are guys who’ve been good since they joined the league and they have been good for a long time since.

Defensive Tackles

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years		 1 2012
2013
2014		 Geno Atkins
Kyle Williams
Ndamukong Suh		 254.00
204.50
201.50		 220 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
1.05 $16, 4 years 2 2012
2013
2014		 Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Aaron Donald		 197.00
180.25
188.00		 188.4
1.06
1.07		 $15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 3 2012
2013
2014		 Nick Fairley
Nick Fairley
Sen’Derrick Marks		 150.25
172.00
177.50		 166.6 Reggie White (173.41)
1.08 $13, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014		 Henry Melton
Ndamukong Suh
Marcel Dareus		 132.50
152.00
166.00		 150.2 Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
1.09 $12, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 Gerald McCoy
Marcel Dareus
Gerald McCoy		 132.25
134.00
157.75		 141.3 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
1.10 $11, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Kyle Williams
Jason Hatcher
Johnathan Hankins		 132.25
126.75
131.25		 130.1 Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
Chandler Jones (131.5)
Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammad Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 7 2012
2013
2014		 Dwan Edwards
Cullen Jenkins
Stephen Paea		 112.75
122.00
127.25		 120.7 Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammed Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 Vince Wilfork
Sen’Derrick Marks
Kyle Williams		 111.00
118.25
121.20		 116.8 Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
Sheldon Richardson (117.88)
Bryant Young (115.77)
Tony McCoy (115.1)
Vonnie Holliday (113.99)
Jim Flanigan (113.97)

There’s a little bit of cross-over between tackles and ends, but basically any pick in the first two rounds would need to be a clear starter over the four years of their contract, even at the back end of the second round. Guys who’ve been at the top of the scoring in recent years don’t feature in the list of rookies, and that suggests that even the best DTs don’t necessarily perform well from their first days in the league. All told, spending even a late second round pick on a DT is going to be a stretch.

Linebackers

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Lawrence Timmons
Navorro Bowman
Clay Matthews		 168.25
198.55
156.50		 174.4 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
1.03 $18, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 Zach Brown
Jerrell Freeman
Connor Barwin		 165.10
185.05
155.25		 168.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.04 $17, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Demarcus Ware
Alec Ogletree
Jamie Collins		 164.75
173.55
155.25		 164.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.05 $16, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 Rob Ninkovich
Daryl Smith
Lavonte David		 155.50
165.10
146.50		 155.7 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
1.06 $15, 4 years 11 2012
2013
2014		 Justin Houston
DeAndre Levy
Junior Galette		 139.25
149.90
130.25		 147.2 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
1.07
1.08
1.09		 $14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years		 14 2012
2013
2014		 Lance Briggs
Danny Trevathan
Terrell Suggs		 137.30
144.95
130.00		 139.8 Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
1.10 $11, 4 years 15 2012
2013
2014		 Ryan Kerrigan
Vontaze Burfict
Luke Kuechly		 137.30
144.95
130.00		 137.4 Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 17 2012
2013
2014		 Shaun Phillips
Ryan Kerrigan
Brandon Marshall		 136.50
143.75
121.00		 133.8 Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
2.05
2.06
2.07		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years		 19 2012
2013
2014		 Rob Jackson
Brian Orakpo
Bruce Irvin		 132.65
136.65
116.40		 128.6 Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
2.08
2.09		 $8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 21 2012
2013
2014		 Derrick Johnson
Derrick Johnson
Danny Lansanah		 128.25
134.40
113.50		 125.4 Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 22 2012
2013
2014		 Luke Kuechly
Trent Cole
Jason Worilds		 127.50
133.50
113.00		 124.7 Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
LaMarr Woodley (119.65)

Let’s face it, you’d have to be a little nuts to blow a top 10 pick on a Linebacker, not that they’re not capable of delivering value for that, but they lack the upside of an offensive player. All of which said, a second round linebacker would be looking at producing a starter’s performance over 4 years, but as a 2nd or 3rd best on your team in that role, and unlike DTs there’s plenty of recent comparators to suggest there’s value to be had. With more teams transitioning to 3-4 defences, outside guys playing as pass rushing ends can represent good value with DE-type performance at an LB price and as with DEs, there’s enough in the comparative rookies to suggest that a good LB is a decent long-term option at the position who can produce for years. Unlike ends however there’s not really the late round breakout stars, if they’re not taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft then they quickly drop into fantasy irrelevance.

Cornerbacks

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years		 N/A N/A
1.06 $15, 4 years 1 2012
2013
2014		 Aqib Talib
Brandon Boykin
Charles Tillman		 234.60
159.48
140.45		 178.2 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
1.07
1.08
1.09		 $14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years		 2 2012
2013
2014		 Richard Sherman
Deangelo Hall
Kyle Fuller		 204.20
157.65
132.35		 164.7
1.10 $11, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Tim Jennings
Richard Sherman
Vontae Davis		 178.35
151.95
130.15		 153.5 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Patrick Peterson
Alterrun Verner
Brent Grimes		 159.85
142.28
128.00		 143.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 6 2012
2013
2014		 Janoris Jenkins
Tramon Williams
Joe Haden		 155.55
135.50
123.75		 138.3 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Casey Hayward
Captain Munnerlyn
Jason McCourty		 142.85
130.85
123.50		 132.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
Kyle Fuller (129.65)

Well, this is painful. There’s no corner in the league on more than a top 5 pick, and you’re looking at any corner taken in the first two rounds being a bad value pick who’s going to have to immediately produce great numbers, and even at the end of the second round you’re looking at guys who’d be in the top 5 rookies of the last 20 years. One thing to note, as with the linebacker position, there’s a pretty clear drop in the performance of players picked after the first two rounds, and despite the well-known stories about Sherman and the Seahawks finding great backs cheap in the late rounds, this is the exception rather than the rule, and in the case of Sherman a significant exception at that.

Safeties

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years		 2 2012
2013
2014		 Jairus Byrd
Troy Polamalu
James Ihedigbo		 155.35
161.35
150.10		 155.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.03 $18, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Reshad Jones
Antrel Rolle
Mike Adams		 144.35
160.80
140.90		 148.7 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07		 $17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Eric Weddle
Michael Mitchell
Glover Quin		 139.60
141.55
139.70		 140.3 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
1.08 $13, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 LaRon Landry
William Moore
Rashead Johnson		 135.95
139.35
137.35		 137.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Thomas DeCoud
Earl Thomas
Tashaun Gipson		 132.90
130.85
131.80		 131.9 Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
1.10 $11, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 William Moore
TJ Ward
Charles Woodson		 131.35
126.95
124.90		 127.7 Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 10 2012
2013
2014		 Danieal Manning
James Ihedigbo
Reggie Nelson		 124.35
123.15
120.90		 122.8 Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
2.05
2.06
2.07		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years		 11 2012
2013
2014		 Morgan Burnett
Charles Woodson
Kemal Ishmael		 123.35
122.30
118.45		 121.4 Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
2.08
2.09		 $8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 12 2012
2013
2014		 Major Wright
Eric Weddle
Ryan Mundy		 122.25
118.75
116.95		 119.3 Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014		 Michael Griffin
Aaron Williams
Kendrick Lewis		 122.15
115.80
116.20		 118.1 Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
Anthony Henry (115.88)

Given Manboob’s love of the high-price Safety, it’s not a surprise to see you could just about justify the top pick of the draft on one. That said, it would only be justified if you could pick Ed Reed, who might just be the best Safety in the history of the NFL. Even then, you’re talking about only just justifying the price tag. All of which said, by the end of the second round a safety is not a terrible pick. I personally wouldn’t – the opportunity to get a good DE or DT there is solid, and the spread of players at relatively makeable scores suggest that it wouldn’t be hard to find any Safety to fill a roster gap, but they’re not an unreliable pick and can score reasonably well from the early part of their careers, with less pressure to be a top guy straight away compared to the cornerback market. Of course, it’s entirely possible this is more a reflection of the insanity of the Dynabowl’s safety market, rather than a real value statement.

Ultimately, there’s no real evidence to suggest that selecting a defensive player in even the first round makes a good value pick, any player picked is going to need to justify not just a roster spot, but a regular starting spot in his first couple of years. But, by the middle of the second round, they’re definitely players to start thinking about and at positions like CB, S and Linebacker where the performance of high picks v lower ones suggests NFL teams are pretty handy at drafting players it’s possibly worth considering reaching and over-paying (as long as you aren’t in a terrible cap situation) simply because there’s such a strong correlation, compared to other positions, between draft pick and rookie success.

2014 DynaBowl Post Season Raw Data

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That’s right, the raw data I used for my analysis is available. And it’s available here.

Just download that file and you can do your own analysis. The file gives you raw data for every team for every week, with the players who started and those who didn’t indicated (no IR or Taxi Squad players are included), along with their rank overall, by position and by team each week. There’s loads of stuff you could do. I’ll probably do some more, but I might not share it. Or I might.

If you do some and want to share it, let me know, and I will publish it.

2014 DynaBowl Post Season Performance Analysis – Part 3

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So we were about to look at some positional statistics. Let’s start with a nice, simple split, total points by position, starting with the defence:

DT DE LB CB  S  Def Total
Champions of the Sun 40.000 306.500 527.500 157.300 231.300 1262.600
Dyna Hard 88.750 370.150 473.200 153.600 156.800 1242.500
Dynablaster Bombermen 123.450 254.600 418.250 177.300 217.700 1191.300
DynaForOne Firebirds 270.000 172.200 295.600 188.600 134.450 1060.850
Dynasore Losers 63.250 220.250 557.550 115.750 224.900 1181.700
East Flanders Flahutes 177.000 176.000 342.000 174.450 171.950 1041.400
Here Comes The Brees 254.750 123.350 322.000 212.250 257.600 1169.950
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 74.500 278.550 326.500 168.500 241.650 1089.700
Tamworth Two 172.250 195.000 390.500 239.950 183.450 1181.150
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 80.000 151.550 447.000 157.575 160.500 996.625
Grand Total 1343.950 2248.150 4100.100 1745.275 1980.300 11417.775

Now, when looking at these stats, you need to remember the flex options – teams did have the option of starting 1 or 2 DTs and 3 or 4 LBs. For example, in 8 of the 16 weeks, Here Comes The Brees started 2 DTs, while DFO did so in 12 of the 16 weeks, hence these two teams had by far the greatest number of points from this position.

Four teams, Champions of the Sun, Dyna Hard, Dynablaster Bombermen and Dynasore Losers only ever started 1 DT, while two more teams – Kelkowski and Dynasty of Sadness – only started 2 DTs once. We’ll get into the points per starter stats shortly, that was just to put the above numbers in a bit of context. What it does mean, though, is that only Dynablaster managed to get at least 100 points out of starting a solo DT.

So, as a percentage of all points gained by the team, how do the defensive positions break down?

DT DE LB CB  S Def Total
Champions of the Sun 1.34% 10.25% 17.64% 5.26% 7.74% 42.23%
Dyna Hard 3.04% 12.67% 16.19% 5.26% 5.37% 42.52%
Dynablaster Bombermen 4.34% 8.95% 14.70% 6.23% 7.65% 41.87%
DynaForOne Firebirds 8.69% 5.54% 9.52% 6.07% 4.33% 34.15%
Dynasore Losers 2.10% 7.31% 18.51% 3.84% 7.46% 39.22%
East Flanders Flahutes 6.99% 6.95% 13.51% 6.89% 6.79% 41.15%
Here Comes The Brees 9.50% 4.60% 12.01% 7.92% 9.61% 43.63%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2.47% 9.23% 10.82% 5.58% 8.01% 36.10%
Tamworth Two 6.13% 6.94% 13.91% 8.55% 6.53% 42.06%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 3.14% 5.96% 17.57% 6.19% 6.31% 39.17%
Grand Total 4.72% 7.90% 14.41% 6.13% 6.96% 40.12%

It’s pretty clear which teams had the star DEs – Dyna Hard having JJ Watt gave a massive boost at that position. Watt scored 275 points in 16 weeks of the season, leaving 95 to be scored by the second choice DE. There were 4 teams which didn’t average 95 points per DE, so this was good going for the second string player at the position.

All in all, there wasn’t a huge variation in the proportion of points scored by defenses. The low of 34.15% scored by DFO was more a result of the massively high offensive scoring done by the team, likewise the 36.10% put up by Kelkowski. On total defensive points, these teams finished 8th and 7th in the league, 80 and 50 points below the league average (respectively).

So flipping it around then and looking at it on an average points per starter basis, how does it look? First of all, it’s important to remember that regularly starting fewer players at a position *should* lead to a higher average points per game on the basis that the additional flex player who has been overlooked in theory should be less likely to score a high number of points. Should be.

Row Labels DT DE LB CB  S  Def Ave  Overall Ave
Champions of the Sun 2.500 9.578 8.242 4.916 7.228 7.174 8.494
Dyna Hard 5.547 11.567 7.394 4.800 4.900 7.060 8.302
Dynablaster Bombermen 7.716 7.956 6.535 5.541 6.803 6.769 8.083
DynaForOne Firebirds 9.643 5.381 5.796 5.894 4.202 6.062 8.849
Dynasore Losers 3.953 6.883 8.712 3.617 7.028 6.714 8.559
East Flanders Flahutes 9.316 5.500 5.607 5.452 5.373 5.917 7.190
Here Comes The Brees 10.615 3.855 5.750 6.633 8.050 6.647 7.617
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 4.382 8.705 5.183 5.266 7.552 6.191 8.599
Tamworth Two 9.066 6.094 6.402 7.498 5.733 6.711 7.977
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.706 4.736 7.095 4.924 5.016 5.663 7.228
Grand Total 7.149 7.025 6.710 5.454 6.188 6.491 8.090

So I’ve included the overall average for some context – that tells you what the aveage player on the 22 man starting line-up scored. As we’d expect, in the vast majority of cases, defensive players score less than average. Watt, Dareus, Suh, McCoy, Quinn, Pierre-Paul and Sen’Derrick Marks are the ones that tip the balance, while Dynasore Losers have an exceptionally strong selection of LBs.

We can look at this as a ratio. In the table below, 100% represents the average score at a position being equal to the average score for the team overall. Over 100% means that position scored above average while below 100% means below average.

DT DE LB CB  S Def Total
Champions of the Sun 29.43% 112.77% 97.04% 57.87% 85.10% 84.46%
Dyna Hard 66.81% 139.33% 89.06% 57.82% 59.02% 85.03%
Dynablaster Bombermen 95.45% 98.43% 80.85% 68.54% 84.16% 83.74%
DynaForOne Firebirds 108.97% 60.81% 65.50% 66.60% 47.48% 68.50%
Dynasore Losers 46.19% 80.41% 101.78% 42.26% 82.11% 78.45%
East Flanders Flahutes 129.57% 76.50% 77.98% 75.83% 74.74% 82.30%
Here Comes The Brees 139.35% 50.60% 75.49% 87.08% 105.68% 87.27%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 50.96% 101.22% 60.27% 61.23% 87.82% 72.00%
Tamworth Two 113.65% 76.39% 80.25% 94.00% 71.86% 84.13%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 65.11% 65.52% 98.16% 68.13% 69.39% 78.34%
Grand Total 88.37% 86.85% 82.95% 67.42% 76.50% 80.24%

I didn’t spot before that the Brees safeties also scored over the team average points. Impressive given that no one else’s safeties manage to average more than 88% of an average player’s contribution. Harrison Smith seems to be the main (sole?) reason for that.

This might flag up key areas of weakness. I would not be surprised if Champions of the Sun were chasing a DT in the off-season. To be honest, Max might be better of fielding himself rather than whatever potato was taking the field for him this year. 2.5 points per player per game is by a fair distance the lowest average points per game of any psoition group for any team.

So what about the offensive side of the ball? It tells you to fuck off, it’s that offensive.

QB RB WR TE Off Total 
Champions of the Sun 272.280 569.175 614.850 84.500 1540.805
Dyna Hard 240.440 557.475 611.510 44.925 1454.350
Dynablaster Bombermen 290.420 488.250 540.500 135.700 1454.870
DynaForOne Firebirds 344.500 541.700 646.700 313.900 1846.800
Dynasore Losers 329.640 456.300 644.300 203.300 1633.540
East Flanders Flahutes 308.260 370.175 437.575 170.100 1286.110
Here Comes The Brees 350.560 428.400 333.500 158.400 1270.860
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 273.700 615.300 608.250 237.900 1735.150
Tamworth Two 349.460 438.600 561.850 91.900 1441.810
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 179.240 388.100 681.700 83.800 1332.840
Grand Total 2938.500 4853.475 5680.735 1524.425 14997.135

Lots more flex options available to teams here, with 2 flex positions spread across RB, WR and TE. 3 teams opted for only 1 TE in every game, with the 2 flexes used at the other positions – Dyna Hard, Dynablaster and the Dynasty of Sadness. Two of these teams accounted for the two lowest scores at TE, while the Bombermen were 6th in TE scoring despite only ever fielding one.

Only Kelkowski and DFO didn’t start 4 WR in at least 10 games. Despite this, both managed over 600 points at the position. The points per player information which is to follow will get into this a little more.

At RB, East Flanders started 3 in only 1 of the 16 games, Dynasore in 9 and DFO in 10. Despite this, East FLanders scored more RB points than 5 other teams while Dynasore and DFO clocked in at 4th and 3rd respectively in total RB points.

As a percentage, by position, these split down as follows:

QB RB WR TE Off Total
Champions of the Sun 9.11% 19.04% 20.57% 2.83% 51.54%
Dyna Hard 8.23% 19.08% 20.93% 1.54% 49.77%
Dynablaster Bombermen 10.21% 17.16% 19.00% 4.77% 51.13%
DynaForOne Firebirds 11.09% 17.44% 20.82% 10.11% 59.46%
Dynasore Losers 10.94% 15.15% 21.39% 6.75% 54.22%
East Flanders Flahutes 12.18% 14.63% 17.29% 6.72% 50.82%
Here Comes The Brees 13.07% 15.98% 12.44% 5.91% 47.40%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 9.07% 20.39% 20.15% 7.88% 57.49%
Tamworth Two 12.45% 15.62% 20.01% 3.27% 51.35%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 7.04% 15.25% 26.79% 3.29% 52.39%
Grand Total 10.33% 17.05% 19.96% 5.36% 52.70%

You can tell which team had Gronkowski – the one which had TE accounting for over 10% of the team’s total points. He may have started slowly but he clocked up a total of 184 points across the 16 week season, 36 more than Anotonio Gates in second. Oh, and DFO had Gates as well, just for good measure.

Looking at the average points per game per player for offensive players then…

Row Labels QB RB WR TE Off Ave  Overall Ave 
Champions of the Sun 17.018 12.110 9.917 4.447 10.700 8.494
Dyna Hard 15.028 11.614 9.555 2.808 10.100 8.302
Dynablaster Bombermen 18.151 10.172 8.445 8.481 10.103 8.083
DynaForOne Firebirds 21.531 12.898 11.346 10.824 12.825 8.849
Dynasore Losers 20.603 11.129 10.738 7.530 11.344 8.559
East Flanders Flahutes 19.266 11.217 6.837 5.487 8.931 7.190
Here Comes The Brees 21.910 9.313 5.558 7.200 8.825 7.617
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 17.106 13.984 10.862 8.496 12.050 8.599
Tamworth Two 21.841 9.332 8.779 5.406 10.013 7.977
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 11.203 8.085 10.652 5.238 9.256 7.228
Grand Total 18.366 10.931 9.237 6.898 10.415 8.090

Naturally, we’d expect offensive scoring to be much higher. There aren’t many positional groups which end up scoring below the team average. Only two teams manage higher than average with their TEs – the Bombermen and DFO, otherwise it’s the WRs of East Flanders and the Brees that show themselves up as below average.

The other big highlight is the underperformance of the Dynasty of Sadness’ QB, clocking in a full 7 points below the league average QB. To put that in context, 7 points per game equates to 112 points across the year. If you add 112 points on to the 2,544 the Dynasty scored in the 16 weeks of the season, they’d move from 9th top scorers to… oh… 9th. But now only 25 points behind league runners-up Here Comes The Brees in 8th.

QB RB WR TE Off Total
Champions of the Sun 200.35% 142.58% 116.76% 52.36% 125.98%
Dyna Hard 181.01% 139.89% 115.09% 33.82% 121.65%
Dynablaster Bombermen 224.55% 125.84% 104.48% 104.92% 124.99%
DynaForOne Firebirds 243.31% 145.75% 128.21% 122.32% 144.93%
Dynasore Losers 240.71% 130.03% 125.46% 87.97% 132.54%
East Flanders Flahutes 267.97% 156.02% 95.10% 76.32% 124.22%
Here Comes The Brees 287.64% 122.26% 72.97% 94.52% 115.86%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 198.92% 162.62% 126.31% 98.80% 140.12%
Tamworth Two 273.80% 116.98% 110.05% 67.77% 125.51%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 154.99% 111.86% 147.36% 72.46% 128.05%
Grand Total 227.03% 135.13% 114.18% 85.27% 128.74%

Those percentages then… they say basically the same kind of thing I was saying above. Dyna Hard and, to a lesser extent, Champions of the Sun may want to look at their TE options going forward.

Special Teams then?

PK PN  ST Total
Champions of the Sun 86.850 99.525 186.375
Dyna Hard 100.100 125.400 225.500
Dynablaster Bombermen 95.150 104.025 199.175
DynaForOne Firebirds 108.150 90.325 198.475
Dynasore Losers 104.250 93.320 197.570
East Flanders Flahutes 124.500 78.750 203.250
Here Comes The Brees 136.500 103.975 240.475
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 107.050 86.475 193.525
Tamworth Two 90.150 94.865 185.015
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 120.450 94.375 214.825
Grand Total 1073.150 971.035 2044.185

I have nothing really to say here.

PK PN ST Total
Champions of the Sun 2.90% 3.33% 6.23%
Dyna Hard 3.43% 4.29% 7.72%
Dynablaster Bombermen 3.34% 3.66% 7.00%
DynaForOne Firebirds 3.48% 2.91% 6.39%
Dynasore Losers 3.46% 3.10% 6.56%
East Flanders Flahutes 4.92% 3.11% 8.03%
Here Comes The Brees 5.09% 3.88% 8.97%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 3.55% 2.86% 6.41%
Tamworth Two 3.21% 3.38% 6.59%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.73% 3.71% 8.44%
Grand Total 3.77% 3.41% 7.18%

But now… I still have nothing really to say.

Yeah. That’s all you’re getting this time.

2014 DynaBowl Post Season Performance Analysis – Part 2

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So last time I looked at scores and consistency. This time, I wanted to kick things off by examing a league of two halves.

The DynaBowl is something new for all of us and had a steep learning curve. While our overall season performance may have been greatly defined by the players bought at auction, in theory each team could have used the waiver wire and trades to improve their team. Granted, injuries may have scuppered some performances so we shouldn’t necessarily expect improvement, but improvement would be good.

So, starting with the overall figures, let’s split the league into the first 8 and last 8 games of the year and see who got better and who got worse…

First 8 Games Last 8 Games Change % Change
DynaForOne Firebirds 173.794 214.472 40.678 23.4%
Dynablaster Bombermen 170.827 184.841 14.014 8.2%
Champions of the Sun 180.165 193.558 13.393 7.4%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 154.278 163.758 9.480 6.1%
East Flanders Flahutes 155.222 161.123 5.901 3.8%
Here Comes The Brees 166.783 168.378 1.594 1.0%
Dynasore Losers 188.170 188.431 0.261 0.1%
Dyna Hard 184.674 180.620 -4.054 -2.2%
Tamworth Two 180.094 170.903 -9.192 -5.1%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 195.506 181.791 -13.714 -7.0%

It’s no surprise, after what was looked at last time, to see DFO at the top of the list. A 40 point per game improvement from one half of the year to the next is pretty extraordinary and shows how the title was won.

It’s interesting how the next 4 teams are not playoff teams though. You could argue that they had the most improving to do, but Champions of the Sun improved from the 4th highest scoring team across the first half of the year to the 2nd highest scoring team in the second half and still failed to make the leap.

One team that leapt out to me, precisely because they look so anonymous here, is Here Comes The Brees, who registered a 1% rise in scoring despite the majority of their team being the victim of Billy Cole, the running back in Last Boy Scout.

On the flip side, some serious questions may need to be asked in the owners offices at the Tamworth Two and Kelkowski.

Kelkowski and Dynasore Losers are in the bottom 4 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. Coincidence? Maybe.

So now, of course, it’s time to see where the gains and losses were made. Let’s start on offence:

First 8 Games Last 8 Games Change % Change
DynaForOne Firebirds 106.825 124.025 17.200 16.1%
Tamworth Two 84.435 95.791 11.356 13.4%
Champions of the Sun 91.846 100.754 8.908 9.7%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 79.972 86.633 6.661 8.3%
East Flanders Flahutes 79.819 80.945 1.126 1.4%
Here Comes The Brees 80.974 77.884 -3.090 -3.8%
Dynablaster Bombermen 94.343 87.516 -6.826 -7.2%
Dynasore Losers 106.049 98.144 -7.905 -7.5%
Dyna Hard 96.099 85.695 -10.404 -10.8%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 117.528 99.366 -18.161 -15.5%

So pick your own team out and tell the story. That’s what I’m going to do.

I know that the Bombermen suffered injuries to Ellington, Bernard and AJ Green, while also trading FHTWMIJ to Kelkowski and so the reduction in average points is explicable. And given we were second in terms of increased performance through the year, we must have hit big on defence. Unless it was on special teams. But seriously, it was on defence…

First 8 Games Last 8 Games Change % Change
DynaForOne Firebirds 55.456 77.150 21.694 39.1%
Dynablaster Bombermen 63.994 84.919 20.925 32.7%
Dynasore Losers 68.463 79.250 10.788 15.8%
East Flanders Flahutes 62.606 67.569 4.962 7.9%
Here Comes The Brees 70.750 75.494 4.744 6.7%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 66.988 69.225 2.238 3.3%
Dyna Hard 76.575 78.738 2.162 2.8%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 61.431 63.147 1.716 2.8%
Champions of the Sun 78.144 79.681 1.538 2.0%
Tamworth Two 83.444 64.200 -19.244 -23.1%

Everybody got better on defense! Well done everyone.

No, wait. Who’s that down the bottom? The Tamworth Two. They had the second highest increase in offensive performance, gaining 11 points per game in the second half of the season, but then giving away nearly 20 on the defensive side. Tamworth sprinted out to a 2-0 start and looked like the team to beat. Or one of them. But it’s not difficult to see where things went wrong.

On the other side, I am very happy with the improvement on the defence. I drafted the defence really badly, but Dan and I made some really solid moves through the year to gain more than 20 points per game from the unit. Over the second half of the year, the Bombermen defence scored more than 5 points per game more than any other defence, and that was without a JJ Watt, Justin Houston or Cameron Wake defensive star to do the majority of the damage. It turned into a really good all round unit.

Now, special teams. Probably nothing to see here, right?

First 8 Games Last 8 Games Change % Change
Dyna Hard 12.000 16.188 4.188 34.9%
Champions of the Sun 10.175 13.122 2.947 29.0%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 10.991 13.200 2.209 20.1%
DynaForOne Firebirds 11.513 13.297 1.784 15.5%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 12.875 13.978 1.103 8.6%
Here Comes The Brees 15.059 15.000 -0.059 -0.4%
Dynablaster Bombermen 12.491 12.406 -0.084 -0.7%
East Flanders Flahutes 12.797 12.609 -0.187 -1.5%
Tamworth Two 12.216 10.911 -1.304 -10.7%
Dynasore Losers 13.659 11.038 -2.621 -19.2%

To be honest, while that setup might have seemed like I was going to have some shocking revelation, I really don’t. There are some numbers up there. The percentages get high, but does that tell us much about special teams? You decide…

Now as a teaser for what’s to come, here’s the same information presented in this and the last post, but for QBs only… First, total points scored:

Max Score Min Score Regular Season Total Playoff Total Full Season Total
Here Comes The Brees 32.800 0.360 311.460 39.100 350.560
Tamworth Two 36.600 6.100 300.760 48.700 349.460
DynaForOne Firebirds 37.120 8.700 267.400 77.100 344.500
Dynasore Losers 30.960 2.720 301.460 28.180 329.640
East Flanders Flahutes 30.280 11.320 257.740 50.520 308.260
Dynablaster Bombermen 31.420 10.040 220.440 69.980 290.420
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 29.420 3.860 205.680 68.020 273.700
Champions of the Sun 26.540 7.200 218.140 54.140 272.280
Dyna Hard 30.040 4.640 199.960 40.480 240.440
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 19.060 0.000 126.920 52.320 179.240

It’s interesting that only two teams had a minimum score of at least 10, and neither made the playoffs, while 3 of the top 4 QBs made the playoffs. Coincidence? Yes.

So how about QB consistancy? Well…

Team Max Consistency Score Min Consistency Score Season (Root Ave) Consistency Total Points
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 125.50 0.89 5.24 179.24
East Flanders Flahutes 121.30 0.06 5.59 308.26
Champions of the Sun 96.38 0.02 5.87 272.28
Dynablaster Bombermen 176.06 0.33 6.14 290.42
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 175.46 0.00 6.42 273.7
Dynasore Losers 319.78 0.34 7.42 329.64
Dyna Hard 225.38 0.35 7.50 240.44
Tamworth Two 247.79 4.33 8.06 349.46
Here Comes The Brees 464.40 1.51 8.13 350.56
DynaForOne Firebirds 243.01 0.24 8.91 344.5

Inconsistent QBs made the playoffs. Must be a boom or bust type thing, I guess.

Finally, a league of 2 halves:

First 8 Games Last 8 Games Change % Change
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 9.100 13.305 4.205 46.2%
East Flanders Flahutes 18.525 20.008 1.483 8.0%
Dynablaster Bombermen 17.518 18.785 1.268 7.2%
Tamworth Two 21.360 22.323 0.962 4.5%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 17.403 16.810 -0.593 -3.4%
Champions of the Sun 18.753 15.283 -3.470 -18.5%
DynaForOne Firebirds 23.363 19.700 -3.663 -15.7%
Dyna Hard 16.893 13.163 -3.730 -22.1%
Here Comes The Brees 24.955 18.865 -6.090 -24.4%
Dynasore Losers 24.243 16.963 -7.280 -30.0%

Only 4 teams saw an improvement in the second half of the season. Interesting. Obviously the Dynasty of Sadness was helped by Cam getting his mojo back. Unless he didn’t start Cammy-Cam. I don’t know. I know Cam was benched for a bit. Did the Dynasty get the big scoring performances at the end of the season, or was it that he played Cam early in the season when he scored nothing?

Especially interesting that those inconsistent QBs for the playoff teams all regressed in the second half of the year. Obviously couldn’t bring their A game when it mattered and had to be dug out of it by the rest of the team…

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