Tag: Statistics

What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Defence)

This is the part Manboob has been waiting for – the safeties (and the rest of the defence). So without further ado, let’s get straight into it…

While it might seem sensible to go deeper and consider the 2nd and 3rd rounds, it’s ultimately too low a contract in the third round and the range of players it brings in makes it a bit of a crap shoot to go that low and hope for anything more useful to arise from it.

Defensive Ends

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01 $20, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Mario Williams
171.50
145.00
157.75
158.1 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.02 $19, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014
Cameron Wake
Greg Hardy
Robert Quinn
165.75
144.50
155.75
155.3 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
5 2012
2013
2014
John Abraham
Muhammed Wilkerson
Jerry Hughes
164.50
138.85
137.50
147.0 Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
1.08 $13, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Antonio Smith
Cameron Jordan
Everson Griffen
147.75
138.00
131.75
139.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Carlos Dunlap
Chandler Jones
Demarcus Ware
147.15
137.25
130.05
138.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.10 $11, 4 years 9 2012
2013
2014
Michael Bennett
Carlos Dunlap
Carlos Dunlap
133.75
132.75
125.50
130.7 Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
10 2012
2013
2014
Jared Allen
Jared Allen
Calais Campbell
132.50
130.75
118.80
127.4 Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
Trent Cole (127.88)
Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
12 2012
2013
2014
Mario Williams
Osi Umenyiora
Chris Clemons
131.25
124.80
113.75
123.3 Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014
Cameron Jordan
Rob Ninkovich
Charles Johnson
130.50
119.25
113.00
120.9 Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
Kevin Carter (115.09)
Cameron Wake (114.91)
Cliff Avril (114.87)

Financially speaking you’d be paying a defensive end more than everyone except Quinn and Watt, so at the very top of the draft you’d be looking for a seriously talented player and any end taken in the first two rounds should be a viable starter over a 4 year period.  One thing to consider when taking an end is that this is a position where the best players have good longevity – Peppers, Allen, Suggs, Watt, Freeney are guys who’ve been good since they joined the league and they have been good for a long time since.

Defensive Tackles

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
1 2012
2013
2014
Geno Atkins
Kyle Williams
Ndamukong Suh
254.00
204.50
201.50
220 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
1.05 $16, 4 years 2 2012
2013
2014
Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Aaron Donald
197.00
180.25
188.00
188.4
1.06
1.07
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
3 2012
2013
2014
Nick Fairley
Nick Fairley
Sen’Derrick Marks
150.25
172.00
177.50
166.6 Reggie White (173.41)
1.08 $13, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014
Henry Melton
Ndamukong Suh
Marcel Dareus
132.50
152.00
166.00
150.2 Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
1.09 $12, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
Gerald McCoy
Marcel Dareus
Gerald McCoy
132.25
134.00
157.75
141.3 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
1.10 $11, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Kyle Williams
Jason Hatcher
Johnathan Hankins
132.25
126.75
131.25
130.1 Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
Chandler Jones (131.5)
Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammad Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
7 2012
2013
2014
Dwan Edwards
Cullen Jenkins
Stephen Paea
112.75
122.00
127.25
120.7 Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammed Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
Vince Wilfork
Sen’Derrick Marks
Kyle Williams
111.00
118.25
121.20
116.8 Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
Sheldon Richardson (117.88)
Bryant Young (115.77)
Tony McCoy (115.1)
Vonnie Holliday (113.99)
Jim Flanigan (113.97)

There’s a little bit of cross-over between tackles and ends, but basically any pick in the first two rounds would need to be a clear starter over the four years of their contract, even at the back end of the second round. Guys who’ve been at the top of the scoring in recent years don’t feature in the list of rookies, and that suggests that even the best DTs don’t necessarily perform well from their first days in the league. All told, spending even a late second round pick on a DT is going to be a stretch.

Linebackers

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
4 2012
2013
2014
Lawrence Timmons
Navorro Bowman
Clay Matthews
168.25
198.55
156.50
174.4 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
1.03 $18, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
Zach Brown
Jerrell Freeman
Connor Barwin
165.10
185.05
155.25
168.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.04 $17, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Demarcus Ware
Alec Ogletree
Jamie Collins
164.75
173.55
155.25
164.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.05 $16, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
Rob Ninkovich
Daryl Smith
Lavonte David
155.50
165.10
146.50
155.7 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
1.06 $15, 4 years 11 2012
2013
2014
Justin Houston
DeAndre Levy
Junior Galette
139.25
149.90
130.25
147.2 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
1.07
1.08
1.09
$14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years
14 2012
2013
2014
Lance Briggs
Danny Trevathan
Terrell Suggs
137.30
144.95
130.00
139.8 Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
1.10 $11, 4 years 15 2012
2013
2014
Ryan Kerrigan
Vontaze Burfict
Luke Kuechly
137.30
144.95
130.00
137.4 Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
17 2012
2013
2014
Shaun Phillips
Ryan Kerrigan
Brandon Marshall
136.50
143.75
121.00
133.8 Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
2.05
2.06
2.07
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
19 2012
2013
2014
Rob Jackson
Brian Orakpo
Bruce Irvin
132.65
136.65
116.40
128.6 Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
2.08
2.09
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
21 2012
2013
2014
Derrick Johnson
Derrick Johnson
Danny Lansanah
128.25
134.40
113.50
125.4 Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 22 2012
2013
2014
Luke Kuechly
Trent Cole
Jason Worilds
127.50
133.50
113.00
124.7 Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
LaMarr Woodley (119.65)

Let’s face it, you’d have to be a little nuts to blow a top 10 pick on a Linebacker, not that they’re not capable of delivering value for that, but they lack the upside of an offensive player. All of which said, a second round linebacker would be looking at producing a starter’s performance over 4 years, but as a 2nd or 3rd best on your team in that role, and unlike DTs there’s plenty of recent comparators to suggest there’s value to be had. With more teams transitioning to 3-4 defences, outside guys playing as pass rushing ends can represent good value with DE-type performance at an LB price and as with DEs, there’s enough in the comparative rookies to suggest that a good LB is a decent long-term option at the position who can produce for years. Unlike ends however there’s not really the late round breakout stars, if they’re not taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft then they quickly drop into fantasy irrelevance.

Cornerbacks

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
N/A N/A
1.06 $15, 4 years 1 2012
2013
2014
Aqib Talib
Brandon Boykin
Charles Tillman
234.60
159.48
140.45
178.2 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
1.07
1.08
1.09
$14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years
2 2012
2013
2014
Richard Sherman
Deangelo Hall
Kyle Fuller
204.20
157.65
132.35
164.7
1.10 $11, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Tim Jennings
Richard Sherman
Vontae Davis
178.35
151.95
130.15
153.5 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
4 2012
2013
2014
Patrick Peterson
Alterrun Verner
Brent Grimes
159.85
142.28
128.00
143.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
6 2012
2013
2014
Janoris Jenkins
Tramon Williams
Joe Haden
155.55
135.50
123.75
138.3 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Casey Hayward
Captain Munnerlyn
Jason McCourty
142.85
130.85
123.50
132.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
Kyle Fuller (129.65)

Well, this is painful. There’s no corner in the league on more than a top 5 pick, and you’re looking at any corner taken in the first two rounds being a bad value pick who’s going to have to immediately produce great numbers, and even at the end of the second round you’re looking at guys who’d be in the top 5 rookies of the last 20 years. One thing to note, as with the linebacker position, there’s a pretty clear drop in the performance of players picked after the first two rounds, and despite the well-known stories about Sherman and the Seahawks finding great backs cheap in the late rounds, this is the exception rather than the rule, and in the case of Sherman a significant exception at that.

Safeties

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
2 2012
2013
2014
Jairus Byrd
Troy Polamalu
James Ihedigbo
155.35
161.35
150.10
155.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.03 $18, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Reshad Jones
Antrel Rolle
Mike Adams
144.35
160.80
140.90
148.7 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
4 2012
2013
2014
Eric Weddle
Michael Mitchell
Glover Quin
139.60
141.55
139.70
140.3 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
1.08 $13, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
LaRon Landry
William Moore
Rashead Johnson
135.95
139.35
137.35
137.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Thomas DeCoud
Earl Thomas
Tashaun Gipson
132.90
130.85
131.80
131.9 Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
1.10 $11, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
William Moore
TJ Ward
Charles Woodson
131.35
126.95
124.90
127.7 Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
10 2012
2013
2014
Danieal Manning
James Ihedigbo
Reggie Nelson
124.35
123.15
120.90
122.8 Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
2.05
2.06
2.07
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
11 2012
2013
2014
Morgan Burnett
Charles Woodson
Kemal Ishmael
123.35
122.30
118.45
121.4 Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
2.08
2.09
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
12 2012
2013
2014
Major Wright
Eric Weddle
Ryan Mundy
122.25
118.75
116.95
119.3 Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014
Michael Griffin
Aaron Williams
Kendrick Lewis
122.15
115.80
116.20
118.1 Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
Anthony Henry (115.88)

Given Manboob’s love of the high-price Safety, it’s not a surprise to see you could just about justify the top pick of the draft on one. That said, it would only be justified if you could pick Ed Reed, who might just be the best Safety in the history of the NFL. Even then, you’re talking about only just justifying the price tag. All of which said, by the end of the second round a safety is not a terrible pick. I personally wouldn’t – the opportunity to get a good DE or DT there is solid, and the spread of players at relatively makeable scores suggest that it wouldn’t be hard to find any Safety to fill a roster gap, but they’re not an unreliable pick and can score reasonably well from the early part of their careers, with less pressure to be a top guy straight away compared to the cornerback market. Of course, it’s entirely possible this is more a reflection of the insanity of the Dynabowl’s safety market, rather than a real value statement.

Ultimately, there’s no real evidence to suggest that selecting a defensive player in even the first round makes a good value pick, any player picked is going to need to justify not just a roster spot, but a regular starting spot in his first couple of years. But, by the middle of the second round, they’re definitely players to start thinking about and at positions like CB, S and Linebacker where the performance of high picks v lower ones suggests NFL teams are pretty handy at drafting players it’s possibly worth considering reaching and over-paying (as long as you aren’t in a terrible cap situation) simply because there’s such a strong correlation, compared to other positions, between draft pick and rookie success.

Scheduling and Relative Strength

Following on from league schedule chat, I got thinking about the level of luck involved in the schedule and what the chances were of teams getting different amount of wins, considering the number of points they scored each week. It’s important to understand, of course, that just because a team scored a lot of points, it doesn’t mean they could have been consistent winners. If they scored massive amounts in just 3 weeks and at or below average the rest of the season they could look like big time Charlies when actually they were … erm … small time Freddies? Also, some weeks the entire league scored highly so a high score is merely par (weeks 8, 10 and 13 all featured average team scores of 190+), while other weeks the points were low so a high score had the chance to dominate (week 2 had an average score of only 158.7).

The point is that it definitely matters when you score those points, as well as how many of them you score.

So given I have the full weekly scoring available I decided to run some scenarios. In fact, practically every scenario. Sort of. There are some weakness which I am going to acknowledge up front.

So what I did was rank everyone’s score from first to last in the league in each week. From this you can derive the chance of winning in any given week. If you top scored you had a 100% chance of winning. If you were the 5th top scorer you had a 55.55% chance of winning (you could beat 5 teams out of 9 – 5/9 = 55.55%) and thus a 44.44% chance of losing. And so on.

By multiplying your chance of winning in week 1 by your chance of winning in week 2 and so on we can work out the chance of you winning every single game. If we create a list of all possible scenarios (ie every combination of win or lose for every week of the season), we can then work out the likelihood of each scenario. Add up all the scenarios that result in 7 wins and you have the % chance of that outcome.

The caveats:

  1. In week 10 Dyna Hard and Kelkowski had the same score. They didn’t play each other so there was no tie, but this would add a tie into the possible outcomes. This would change the number of scenarios across a 13 week season from 8,192 to 1,594,323. To avoid doing this I have knocked Dyna Hard down by 0.05 points so there’s no tie that week. This means that I slightly under-estimate Dyna Hard’s position in the end results and slightly over-estimate Kelkowski’s, but the difference is minimal.
  2. I have not done this based on feasible schedules that fit with our ‘play your division twice, the other division once’ rules. This is purely done on the basis of how many teams could you beat each week. This means that while it may say a team has a small percentage chance of winning every week or losing every week, this may not actually be the case because that may rely on playing The Sadness or Kelkowski every week.

However, what this does do is provide an analysis of relative strength across the division as well as estimate the role schedule luck played in each team’s performance.

So first off I want to walk you through an example. East Flanders had a 0.13% chance of losing all 13 games in the season. The table below shows the ranking of each weekly points score for the team, the chance of losing in that individual week, and the cumulative chance of losing each week, one after the other:

Score Rank Chance of Losing Cumulative Chance of Losing
Week 1 6 55.56% 55.56%
Week 2 4 33.33% 18.52%
Week 3 10 100.00% 18.52%
Week 4 8 77.78% 14.40%
Week 5 8 77.78% 11.20%
Week 6 7 66.67% 7.47%
Week 7 10 100.00% 7.47%
Week 8 8 77.78% 5.81%
Week 9 9 88.89% 5.16%
Week 10 7 66.67% 3.44%
Week 11 8 77.78% 2.68%
Week 12 2 11.11% 0.30%
Week 13 5 44.44% 0.13%

A decent start and end to the season didn’t cover up a pretty terrible middle.

So doing this for every win/loss combination for every team gives the following table of likely win totals:

Win Expectancy 1

The figures highlighted in bold are the percentage chance the team had of recording the number of victories they actually did record. So Champions of the Sun ended up with 6 wins and there was a 24.75% chance of that happening based on their weekly scores (accepting the caveats listed earlier), while Dyna Hard had just a 9.86% likelihood of getting exactly 5 wins, as they managed across the year.

So for all bar two teams, the chances of ending with the record they ended with was between 22.52% and 29.19%, though only 3 teams ended with the record they were most likely to.

So the next stage is to look at the cumulative win chances – ie adding the percentage chances up as you move along. So each column in the table below shows the chances of winning between zero and n games (n being the number at the top of the column).

Win Expectancy 2

What this is saying is that the higher the cumulative number the luckier you would need to be to get that number of victories, while approximately 50% is where you would expect to be. So in 95.54% of scenarios Here Comes The Brees would win 8 or fewer games and only in 4.46% of scenarios would they win over 8 games. As we can see, there was only a 13.60% chance that Dyna Hard would win 5 or fewer games.

We can also reverse this and produce a table which shows the chances of reaching a minimum number of wins:

Win Expectancy 3

This shows that The Brees had only a 14.66% chance of getting at least the 8 wins they managed, while Dyna Hard were as close to guaranteed as you could reasonably expect to get to hit the 5 wins they did, with over a 96% chance of reaching that level. The Dynasty of Sadness were the second luckiest franchise, with only a 35% chance of getting 5 wins, although they had a better chance of getting 4 wins than East Flanders, while the Champions of the Sun were very lunlucky to register just 6 wins.

So what can we do with all this data? Well, we can use it to create an expected win number. By looking at where the 50% position falls in the above 2 cumulative tables and taking the average of the 2 positions we can see the expected number of wins for each team based on their performance.

Team Expected Wins Exp. Win Rank Actual Wins Diff. % Difference
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 8.59 1 8 -0.59 -4.52%
Dynasore Losers 8.34 2 8 -0.34 -2.61%
DynaForOne Firebirds 7.33 3 7 -0.33 -2.50%
Dyna Hard 7.12 4 5 -2.12 -16.27%
Champions of the Sun 6.89 5 6 -0.89 -6.88%
Tamworth Two 6.43 6 6 -0.43 -3.34%
Dynablaster Bombermen 6.11 7 7 0.89 6.88%
Here Comes The Brees 5.88 8 8 2.12 16.30%
East Flanders Dungeoneers 4.18 9 5 0.82 6.31%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.12 10 5 0.88 6.74%

So most teams were within 1 win of where they would be expected to end up, but Dyna Hard and Here Come The Brees were both over 2 wins difference from what their week to week performance merited.

All told I am pleasantly surprised at how little difference the schedule made for most people. This may be a case of there being so few games it’s harder to separate from the mean, but then again, 20% of the league – a not insignificant proportion – were over 2 games different from their expected level.

What can be said at this point is that we don’t really know if this is a problem or not. Will there always be teams who get very lucky or unlucky or was 2014 an anomaly? Should we look to provide a degree of stabilisation to try to get the best performing teams over the course of the season into the playoffs? Or should we embrace randomness?

Kommish Komment Korner (again)

The fact that the match-ups, in a randomly assigned order, can make a large difference to the outcome of the season – something beyond the control of the GM – seems an unfair punishment (or reward) and if something can be done that removes an element of that, while maintaining the excitement of head-to-head match-ups, my view is it should be included.

What we have is not broken, but there are a few cracks in the facade and it would be nice to address those so that we have a league which is both fun and robust. The magic of the cup will remain, regardless, in the playoff stage. What the regular season should at least try to do is ensure that the best teams end up in the playoffs while the worst teams get the best picks in the draft in order to better themselves and make themselves more competitive. In 2014 the playoffs were 3/4 right in that regard, but it’s not as though the 4th part of that equation was a borderline case. Had Dyna Hard come 5th, just behind Champions of the Sun, the issue wouldn’t have been a talking point (and I realise I am the only one talking about it really so you may not consider it one anyway). But I think it is tough to argue that Dyna Hard merit the first pick of the draft ahead of DoS and East Flanders.

I’m not suggesting a revolution, I’m suggesting evolution. The league is one year old and we knew we wouldn’t get things right the first time. We need to adapt to make the league as good and as fair as possible. I don’t want playoffs to be decided based on all-play or total points or anything. We all put in a lot of time and effort and it is better that we have a system that rewards that time and effort and, where appropriate, skill as best as possible.

This won’t change for 2015 and the above analysis will be repeated after the 2015 season to see how different the league was from actual performance. There will then be a vote sometime in the new year about whether we should change the schedule and/or ranking system for teams. Cases will be made and, whatever the outcome, we will move forward, older and allegedly wiser.

Mock Draft 2.0 – DSlatz Stat Attackz Version

D-Slatz takes his turn analysing team needs and picking the first 31 men off the board.

1. DynaHard – needs QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S.
Picks 1, 11, 22, 32, 42, 45, 55, 56, 66

DynaHard’s biggest need is at TE, where the current options are beyond uninspiring. Finding the right tight end might be tricky though with no particularly stand out options. The 32nd pick might be the right time to take a gamble on whichever tight end the Saints grab in the middle rounds. If the best tight-end lands in a decent situation, this would be a solid pick.
Similarly, a potential top 3 QB would upgrade the roster significantly, but QBs need time. Winston is the better pocket passer and better NFL QB, if he’s available at 11 then he’d be a great pick up. If not Mariota should be available and would be worth considering, particularly if someone like San Diego trades up to get him. Garret Grayson with a late pick may offer a nice risk/reward option if he lands somewhere he can play, such as Buffalo, and will probably be available with a late pick (50+).
Antonio Brown is a clear number one receiver, but after him Edelman and Watkins are below-average second receivers. Watkins showed flashes and definitely has room to improve, but he’s got a run-happy coach and a terrible QB, so there is no guarantee that improvement will come any time soon. Given the league’s increasingly pass-happy direction and the ability of rookie receivers to make an impact almost immediately, taking the best WR is the ideal use of the #1 pick. Cooper should land at the Raiders with a young QB who showed plenty of promise last year, but if White ends up with the Giants or Chicago, he’d surely be the better selection of the two.
The Running Back position is intriguing. Given the cap situation Charles could be a casualty if the right offer is made, if he is, that makes the RB position a definite need, but currently Charles and Morris represent a fine 1 / 2 combination and with Mathews, Randle/Dunbar and Sankey on the roster a solid RB3 option could easily develop. If the intention is to trade, Gurley would be another option with the top pick, however rookie RBs have generally struggled, and highly touted young RBs have struggled to make either an immediate or extended impact. In what looks like a deep and talented RB class, mid-round picks like TJ Yeldon and Tevin Coleman could easily land in good situations and have immediate impacts, and would offer great value if they can be got with the 32nd, 42nd or 45th picks.

2. Dynasty of Sadness – needs QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.
Picks 2, 12, 15, 23, 33, 43, 57, 67

If Carolina can do a better job of protecting Cam and letting him make plays he should turn back into a top 10 QB. In that situation, this is a lower need position that could be filled with a late round flier on Hundley, or possibly with Mariota at 15 if he’s still available.
The most pressing need is at RB, and going to the well twice for Gurley / Gordon in the first round and Jay Ajayi in the second is definitely an option. While wide receiver isn’t a need, there’s a definite temptation to pick the best WR available as they may well be the best and most reliable pick you could make in the first round.
There really isn’t a great tight end option, and a mid-round pick based on the situation a developmental TE finds themselves in might be a better option than spending a high pick on the ‘best’ Tight End.
Williams is not necessarily seen as a top, top tier talent at DE, but is the best defender in the draft and would represent a solid long-term option at DE, even if he ends up a Titan. He could be an option with the #2 pick, but it would probably be a bit of a reach given the need at RB. There is so much depth among the end position that potentially good options like Eli Harold, Preston Smith or Alvin Dupree will be available later in the draft and it may be better to look for a slightly worse player who lands in a great situation to play early and often. If Shane Ray or Dante Fowler is still around in the middle of the second round, they’d be great pick ups.
Danny Shelton at DT is also a potential second round option, but it’s a pretty deep draft for tackles, and someone like Arik Armistead who has all the physical tools to play the position if he can land with a coach, like Tomsula or Ryan, who can help him piece it together would represent great value in the late rounds.
It’s not a great draft for safeties, but that may not prevent the Dynasty spending their top pick on one.

3. East Flanders Dungeoneers – needs RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.
Picks 3, 13, 21, 34, 47, 58, 68

The Dungeoneers have reloaded well in free agency, but there just aren’t the options to get a great receiver in free agency, and likely won’t be soon. That means that the draft is the best way to find an elite receiver. Ideally the Dungeoneers would look to trade everything to get back into the top of the first round and take both White and Cooper at 3 and 4 and expect one of them to become an elite receiver. However that seems unlikely to happen, so taking whichever one of White or Cooper is left at 3 seems like an obvious selection. DeVante Parker, Dorial Beckham-Green aren’t likely to be around by the second round, but if they are they represent good value. At least one of Jalen Strong, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett and Devin Smith will be though, and all have the potential to develop into a good second WR option in the right situation.
With Forsett in place, the need at RB is not as bad as it is at WR, but should both Cooper and White go in the first two picks, Gurley would be tough to pass up. Melvin Gordon will likely be available, but a later round pick such as Yeldon or Coleman probably represents better value.
Defensive End is a deep position to draft from, and with the needs on offence it would be a surprise to see Leonard Williams go this high. Similarly spending a second round pick on Gregory or Ray is a stretch unless the receiver options have been decimated. Better to look in the later rounds at a player with breakout potential. Nate Orchard had a great 2014, and has potential to be a late round steal and Markus Golden has bags of talent but will drop down the NFL draft due to injuries which slowed him down last year and should be available at 50+.
Safety is a need, but frankly the safety option in this year’s draft are poor with Landon Collins possibly the only safety to go in the first round. Byron Jones might be the best athlete, although he may end up an NFL corner. He should be available somewhere after the 30th pick.

4. Tamworth Two – needs WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.
Picks 4, 14, 25, 35, 48, 59, 69

Tamworth Two have a lot of almost players lurking at 10th to 15th at their positions, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see some of them improve next year.
The biggest need on the roster is an elite wide receiver, and if Cooper or White drops here they should be a nailed on selection. If they don’t things get a little murkier as there is no talent on the defensive side of the ball worthy of the 4th pick.
Dorial Green-Beckham is an option, he represents a risk with his disciplinary issues in college, but there’s no doubt he’s one of the three most talented athletes at his position in this draft. He could have a Beckham Jr. level of impact if he finds a good fit. DaVante Parker is another option. Slightly less talented, but he represents a safer bet than DGB and is clearly the next best safe selection at receiver after Cooper and White. He doesn’t necessarily project as a potential WR1 thought. A lot will depend on who lands where, as nobody wants to draft the talented receiver who the Browns are expected to draft high in the first and inevitably ruin.
The need at Defensive End is intriguing. Both Dante Fowler Jr and Leonard Williams are options. It seems high for a defensive player, but they fill a need for this team and could develop into great #1 options at either DE or LB. However Randy Gregory, Shane Ray should be available in the second round and represent better value.
This team doesn’t need running backs particularly, as long as Lesean McCoy does better in Buffalo than his last year in Philly. However if Gurley were to fall he may be a tough player to pass on.
If Trey Waynes is available at 25 it’d be tough to pass him up. Failing that the needs at CB and safety can be filled in the later rounds with someone like Jalen Collins or Marcus Peters. Talented players who’ll be taken relatively high in the NFL draft.

5. Champions of the Sun – needs QB?, RB2/3, WR3.
Picks 9, 26, 40, 46, 49, 60, 70

Champions of the Sun have used their draft capital aggressively to fill needs in trades and free agency, leaving only 1 pick in the top 20, but a shortage of clear needs.
If Gordon falls to 9 he’d be a solid pick, it’s almost certain Gurley won’t make it this far. A good depth receiver with potential is the most likely pick though with the #9 selection. Cooper, White, Parker and DGB will all be gone almost certainly, but there should be at worst a couple of Jalen Strong, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett and Devin Smith to select from. A late round flyer on Brandin Cooks-like diminutive flier Tyler Lockett might also be an option, and while there’s legitimate concerns over Devin Funchess’s ability to create separation with his complete lack of speed, there is no doubting the 6’4 receivers hands or ability to create mismatch nightmares with his size.
It would be a reach for a running back other than Gordon at this point, but given the next pick would be the 26th, a reach for Jay Ajayi might be an option. A later round selection, such as a David Johnson is also an option at running back. Unless he lands in a particularly good RB situation Johnson is at best going to compete for a spot in camp, but he has the talent to make a starting job his own with the right franchise and could be a real find in the later rounds of the Dynabowl draft.
One intriguing option for the inaccurately-named Champions is at QB. Mariota or Winston could be available at 9, and while there’s been a reasonable investment in Roethlisberger, last season was an outlier in terms of fantasy production. A potential franchise QB to replace an aging Big Ben would be hard to pass up given the relative health of the overall roster.

6. Dynablaster Bombermen – needs ‘elite’ players.
Picks 6, 16, 20, 37, 44, 50, 53, 61, 62, 71

There is no position that jumps out from the Bombermen’s roster as having gaps or needs. They’ve solid top ten options in most positions, and good solid depth behind those players. What does strike me when I look through their performance though is the lack of elite talent in most positions. Aside from AJ Green, who’s 2014 showing is likely a blip caused by injuries there’s no elite talent. That should be the main aim for the Bombermen in this draft. Three picks in the top 20 definitely helps, but Cooper, White and Gurley represent the best three options in the draft in terms of potential to become elite players. It’s unlikely any of them make it to the 6th selection.
With a lot of draft capital, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility for the Bombermen to trade up or into next year’s draft instead. However, assuming that doesn’t happen they’re best off looking for the risk/reward players who have the potential to provide them an elite pay-off. The best example of this is Dorial Green-Beckham, and it would be a surprise both if he didn’t make it to the 6th selection and if the Bombermen passed on him in that position.
One option for the Bombermen is at QB. Ryan is a good QB, reliable and effective. He’s also playing for a poor Falcons team and had two below average (with only 10 QBs, anything below 6th is below average) seasons. If the GMs at Bomberman HQ feel Mariota or Winston has elite potential they’d be an option at 6, and a real selection headache at 16.
David Cobb has been a productive runner in Minnesota, and answered some doubts with a good showing in the Senior Bowl, his ability to handle a big workload could make him a potential lead back somewhere in the NFL, and that makes him a tempting selection in the mid to late rounds.

7. Kelkowski Don’t Play by No Dyna Rules – needs QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.
Picks 7, 17, 28, 38, 51, 72

The biggest needs for Kelkowski is easily the lack of a franchise QB. They could also use a tight end and options on defence.
With the tight end options slim, and neither DTs nor LBs offering value in the first round Kelkowski should definitely look to take one of the two top QBs in the draft. Maxx Williams is the best Tight End, and while not an outstanding talent, he might be around in the second round, and while that’s a reach, he might represent a reasonable gamble at that point, if Shelton and Brown have gone.
It’s not impossible, but it is unlikely that someone gets ahead of Kelkowski on the tackle front, and both Malcolm Brown and Danny Shelton project as first round tackles in the NFL draft. One of these, or possibly Dante Fowler, Shane Ray or Vic Beasley in the second round, and maybe even again in the third would definitely fill roster holes and have potential to develop into a great weapon on the defensive side of the ball.
In a reasonably deep and hard to call cornerback draft, Waynes might be available at 28, or a later selection in the last two or three rounds should pick up a good prospect at a tough position to predict.

8. DynaSore Losers – needs QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB.
Picks 8, 18, 29, 39, 52, 63, 73

The Losers needs are hard to call with a few question marks on positions. Dalton and Carr represent options if Manning falls apart, but neither looks likely to develop and replace Manning’s elite production. Mariota or Winston could therefore be an option with the 8th pick, and certainly with the 18th if they haven’t been taken.
The Running back position should be OK with Peterson and Forte, but they are aging. Gordon would be tough to pass over if he hasn’t been taken, otherwise a later round option would be better.
The biggest need on the roster is at tackle, and Danny Shelton is a definite option in the second round, with Malcolm Brown possibly available in the third.
Another option in the first round is to go with a wide receiver. Nelson is a stud, but Sanders may struggle if Manning does, and who knows how Torrey Smith will do in San Francisco. DaVante Parker and DGB may well be gone, if not they’d be good value here. The next tier of talent (Strong, Perriman, Dorsett, Smith) should be available, but they aren’t the easiest to separate. The best of them will probably be a good WR2 / 3, but knowing who that will be is the challenge and the gamble on making that call might not represent good value.
Leonard Williams may easily fall this far, and while DE is not a necessity, his talent makes him a great option at #8.
The need at corner can be addressed later in the draft, as there’s plenty of good options in the first few rounds.

9. Here Comes The Brees – needs RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S.
Picks 5, 19, 24, 30, 36, 64, 74

The Brees have a lot of holes on the roster, without an elite receiver, or running back after failing to tie down Forsett for the long-term. They lack talent across the whole defence, and Leonard Williams and Dante Fowler Jr will likely be available at 5. That would be a stretch though with the holes on offence.
With Gurley, Cooper and White likely gone by this point DeVante Parker and Melvin Gordon are the two most obvious picks at 5. The risk associated with DGB probably isn’t worthwhile for a team with so many holes, even if he is available. Parker might be the lesser talent and probably doesn’t project as a WR1, but he is the more reliable selection.
If any of Strong, Perriman, Dorsett, Smith or Ajayi make it to the depths of the second round, they’d be hard to pass up. However that seems unlikely, and the next tier of talent at the WR position is probably not worth the reach with so much defensive talent available. Picks 19, 24 and 30 provide an opportunity to net a couple of players from the pool of great defenders such as Brown, Shelton, Ray, Gregory and Beasley and that sort of solid rebuilding would be a great return for a roster with so many holes.

10. DynaForOne Firebirds – needs DE1, LB, CB, S.
Picks 10, 27, 31, 41, 54, 65, 75

No surprise to see the champions roster in relatively good shape, particularly offensively. The Firebirds could reload their offence with some good prospects to provide depth and trade bait, but they do have clear needs on defence. Leonard Williams may not survive the first round to be available, but the teams picking 1-5 will have better options for their picks and the teams picking 6-9 have less need for an elite DE. If he falls past to the Tamworth Two, it’s like Williams falls all the way to the Firebirds. Failing that, Dante Fowler Jr is the best player at a position of need, and the Jacksonville defence is not a place fantasy players go to die, as Senderrick Marks has demonstrated.
With no second round pick, the next pick is probably likely to miss out on Ray, Gregory, Beasley or one of the other potentially elite pass rushers. Lorenzo Mauldin is a bit of a project who needs to bulk up a little to succeed in the NFL, and he might make a decent mid-round pick for a Dynabowl team who have the opportunity to be patient.

1.01 1 Dyna Hard Amari Cooper, WR
1.02 2 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Todd Gurley, RB
1.03 3 East Flanders Dungeoneers Kevin White, WR
1.04 4 Tamworth Two Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
1.05 5 Here Comes The Brees DaVante Parker, WR
1.06 6 Dynablaster Bombermen Melvin Gordon, RB
1.07 7 Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules Jameis Winston, QB
1.08 8 Dynasore Losers Marcus Mariota, QB
1.09 9 Champions of the Sun Philip Dorsett, WR
1.10 10 DynaForOne Firebirds Leonard Williams, DE
2.01 11 Dyna Hard Jay Ajayi, RB
2.02 12 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Dante Fowler Jr, LB
2.03 13 East Flanders Dungeoneers Jalen Strong, WR
2.04 14 Tamworth Two Vic Beasley, LB
2.05 15 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Danny Shelton, DT
2.06 16 Dynablaster Bombermen Breshad Perriman, WR
2.07 17 Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules Maxx Williams, TE
2.08 18 Dynasore Losers Devin Smith, WR
2.09 19 Here Comes The Brees Shane Ray, DE
2.10 20 Dynablaster Bombermen Randy Gregory, LB
2.11 21 East Flanders Dungeoneers Telvin Coleman, RB
3.01 22 Dyna Hard Trey Waynes, CB
3.02 23 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Malcom Brown, DT
3.03 24 Here Comes The Brees AJ Yeldon, RB
3.04 25 Tamworth Two Alvin Dupree, LB
3.05 26 Champions of the Sun Brett Hundley, QB
3.06 27 DynaForOne Firebirds Bud Dupree, LB
3.07 28 Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules Eli Harold, LB
3.08 29 Dynasore Losers Arik Armistead, DT
3.09 30 Here Comes The Brees Duke Johnson, RB
3.10 31 DynaForOne Firebirds Marcus Peters, CB

 

2014 DynaBowl Post Season Raw Data

That’s right, the raw data I used for my analysis is available. And it’s available here.

Just download that file and you can do your own analysis. The file gives you raw data for every team for every week, with the players who started and those who didn’t indicated (no IR or Taxi Squad players are included), along with their rank overall, by position and by team each week. There’s loads of stuff you could do. I’ll probably do some more, but I might not share it. Or I might.

If you do some and want to share it, let me know, and I will publish it.

2014 DynaBowl Post Season Performance Analysis – Part 3

So we were about to look at some positional statistics. Let’s start with a nice, simple split, total points by position, starting with the defence:

DT DE LB CB  S  Def Total
Champions of the Sun 40.000 306.500 527.500 157.300 231.300 1262.600
Dyna Hard 88.750 370.150 473.200 153.600 156.800 1242.500
Dynablaster Bombermen 123.450 254.600 418.250 177.300 217.700 1191.300
DynaForOne Firebirds 270.000 172.200 295.600 188.600 134.450 1060.850
Dynasore Losers 63.250 220.250 557.550 115.750 224.900 1181.700
East Flanders Flahutes 177.000 176.000 342.000 174.450 171.950 1041.400
Here Comes The Brees 254.750 123.350 322.000 212.250 257.600 1169.950
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 74.500 278.550 326.500 168.500 241.650 1089.700
Tamworth Two 172.250 195.000 390.500 239.950 183.450 1181.150
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 80.000 151.550 447.000 157.575 160.500 996.625
Grand Total 1343.950 2248.150 4100.100 1745.275 1980.300 11417.775

Now, when looking at these stats, you need to remember the flex options – teams did have the option of starting 1 or 2 DTs and 3 or 4 LBs. For example, in 8 of the 16 weeks, Here Comes The Brees started 2 DTs, while DFO did so in 12 of the 16 weeks, hence these two teams had by far the greatest number of points from this position.

Four teams, Champions of the Sun, Dyna Hard, Dynablaster Bombermen and Dynasore Losers only ever started 1 DT, while two more teams – Kelkowski and Dynasty of Sadness – only started 2 DTs once. We’ll get into the points per starter stats shortly, that was just to put the above numbers in a bit of context. What it does mean, though, is that only Dynablaster managed to get at least 100 points out of starting a solo DT.

So, as a percentage of all points gained by the team, how do the defensive positions break down?

DT DE LB CB  S Def Total
Champions of the Sun 1.34% 10.25% 17.64% 5.26% 7.74% 42.23%
Dyna Hard 3.04% 12.67% 16.19% 5.26% 5.37% 42.52%
Dynablaster Bombermen 4.34% 8.95% 14.70% 6.23% 7.65% 41.87%
DynaForOne Firebirds 8.69% 5.54% 9.52% 6.07% 4.33% 34.15%
Dynasore Losers 2.10% 7.31% 18.51% 3.84% 7.46% 39.22%
East Flanders Flahutes 6.99% 6.95% 13.51% 6.89% 6.79% 41.15%
Here Comes The Brees 9.50% 4.60% 12.01% 7.92% 9.61% 43.63%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2.47% 9.23% 10.82% 5.58% 8.01% 36.10%
Tamworth Two 6.13% 6.94% 13.91% 8.55% 6.53% 42.06%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 3.14% 5.96% 17.57% 6.19% 6.31% 39.17%
Grand Total 4.72% 7.90% 14.41% 6.13% 6.96% 40.12%

It’s pretty clear which teams had the star DEs – Dyna Hard having JJ Watt gave a massive boost at that position. Watt scored 275 points in 16 weeks of the season, leaving 95 to be scored by the second choice DE. There were 4 teams which didn’t average 95 points per DE, so this was good going for the second string player at the position.

All in all, there wasn’t a huge variation in the proportion of points scored by defenses. The low of 34.15% scored by DFO was more a result of the massively high offensive scoring done by the team, likewise the 36.10% put up by Kelkowski. On total defensive points, these teams finished 8th and 7th in the league, 80 and 50 points below the league average (respectively).

So flipping it around then and looking at it on an average points per starter basis, how does it look? First of all, it’s important to remember that regularly starting fewer players at a position *should* lead to a higher average points per game on the basis that the additional flex player who has been overlooked in theory should be less likely to score a high number of points. Should be.

Row Labels DT DE LB CB  S  Def Ave  Overall Ave
Champions of the Sun 2.500 9.578 8.242 4.916 7.228 7.174 8.494
Dyna Hard 5.547 11.567 7.394 4.800 4.900 7.060 8.302
Dynablaster Bombermen 7.716 7.956 6.535 5.541 6.803 6.769 8.083
DynaForOne Firebirds 9.643 5.381 5.796 5.894 4.202 6.062 8.849
Dynasore Losers 3.953 6.883 8.712 3.617 7.028 6.714 8.559
East Flanders Flahutes 9.316 5.500 5.607 5.452 5.373 5.917 7.190
Here Comes The Brees 10.615 3.855 5.750 6.633 8.050 6.647 7.617
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 4.382 8.705 5.183 5.266 7.552 6.191 8.599
Tamworth Two 9.066 6.094 6.402 7.498 5.733 6.711 7.977
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.706 4.736 7.095 4.924 5.016 5.663 7.228
Grand Total 7.149 7.025 6.710 5.454 6.188 6.491 8.090

So I’ve included the overall average for some context – that tells you what the aveage player on the 22 man starting line-up scored. As we’d expect, in the vast majority of cases, defensive players score less than average. Watt, Dareus, Suh, McCoy, Quinn, Pierre-Paul and Sen’Derrick Marks are the ones that tip the balance, while Dynasore Losers have an exceptionally strong selection of LBs.

We can look at this as a ratio. In the table below, 100% represents the average score at a position being equal to the average score for the team overall. Over 100% means that position scored above average while below 100% means below average.

DT DE LB CB  S Def Total
Champions of the Sun 29.43% 112.77% 97.04% 57.87% 85.10% 84.46%
Dyna Hard 66.81% 139.33% 89.06% 57.82% 59.02% 85.03%
Dynablaster Bombermen 95.45% 98.43% 80.85% 68.54% 84.16% 83.74%
DynaForOne Firebirds 108.97% 60.81% 65.50% 66.60% 47.48% 68.50%
Dynasore Losers 46.19% 80.41% 101.78% 42.26% 82.11% 78.45%
East Flanders Flahutes 129.57% 76.50% 77.98% 75.83% 74.74% 82.30%
Here Comes The Brees 139.35% 50.60% 75.49% 87.08% 105.68% 87.27%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 50.96% 101.22% 60.27% 61.23% 87.82% 72.00%
Tamworth Two 113.65% 76.39% 80.25% 94.00% 71.86% 84.13%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 65.11% 65.52% 98.16% 68.13% 69.39% 78.34%
Grand Total 88.37% 86.85% 82.95% 67.42% 76.50% 80.24%

I didn’t spot before that the Brees safeties also scored over the team average points. Impressive given that no one else’s safeties manage to average more than 88% of an average player’s contribution. Harrison Smith seems to be the main (sole?) reason for that.

This might flag up key areas of weakness. I would not be surprised if Champions of the Sun were chasing a DT in the off-season. To be honest, Max might be better of fielding himself rather than whatever potato was taking the field for him this year. 2.5 points per player per game is by a fair distance the lowest average points per game of any psoition group for any team.

So what about the offensive side of the ball? It tells you to fuck off, it’s that offensive.

QB RB WR TE Off Total 
Champions of the Sun 272.280 569.175 614.850 84.500 1540.805
Dyna Hard 240.440 557.475 611.510 44.925 1454.350
Dynablaster Bombermen 290.420 488.250 540.500 135.700 1454.870
DynaForOne Firebirds 344.500 541.700 646.700 313.900 1846.800
Dynasore Losers 329.640 456.300 644.300 203.300 1633.540
East Flanders Flahutes 308.260 370.175 437.575 170.100 1286.110
Here Comes The Brees 350.560 428.400 333.500 158.400 1270.860
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 273.700 615.300 608.250 237.900 1735.150
Tamworth Two 349.460 438.600 561.850 91.900 1441.810
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 179.240 388.100 681.700 83.800 1332.840
Grand Total 2938.500 4853.475 5680.735 1524.425 14997.135

Lots more flex options available to teams here, with 2 flex positions spread across RB, WR and TE. 3 teams opted for only 1 TE in every game, with the 2 flexes used at the other positions – Dyna Hard, Dynablaster and the Dynasty of Sadness. Two of these teams accounted for the two lowest scores at TE, while the Bombermen were 6th in TE scoring despite only ever fielding one.

Only Kelkowski and DFO didn’t start 4 WR in at least 10 games. Despite this, both managed over 600 points at the position. The points per player information which is to follow will get into this a little more.

At RB, East Flanders started 3 in only 1 of the 16 games, Dynasore in 9 and DFO in 10. Despite this, East FLanders scored more RB points than 5 other teams while Dynasore and DFO clocked in at 4th and 3rd respectively in total RB points.

As a percentage, by position, these split down as follows:

QB RB WR TE Off Total
Champions of the Sun 9.11% 19.04% 20.57% 2.83% 51.54%
Dyna Hard 8.23% 19.08% 20.93% 1.54% 49.77%
Dynablaster Bombermen 10.21% 17.16% 19.00% 4.77% 51.13%
DynaForOne Firebirds 11.09% 17.44% 20.82% 10.11% 59.46%
Dynasore Losers 10.94% 15.15% 21.39% 6.75% 54.22%
East Flanders Flahutes 12.18% 14.63% 17.29% 6.72% 50.82%
Here Comes The Brees 13.07% 15.98% 12.44% 5.91% 47.40%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 9.07% 20.39% 20.15% 7.88% 57.49%
Tamworth Two 12.45% 15.62% 20.01% 3.27% 51.35%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 7.04% 15.25% 26.79% 3.29% 52.39%
Grand Total 10.33% 17.05% 19.96% 5.36% 52.70%

You can tell which team had Gronkowski – the one which had TE accounting for over 10% of the team’s total points. He may have started slowly but he clocked up a total of 184 points across the 16 week season, 36 more than Anotonio Gates in second. Oh, and DFO had Gates as well, just for good measure.

Looking at the average points per game per player for offensive players then…

Row Labels QB RB WR TE Off Ave  Overall Ave 
Champions of the Sun 17.018 12.110 9.917 4.447 10.700 8.494
Dyna Hard 15.028 11.614 9.555 2.808 10.100 8.302
Dynablaster Bombermen 18.151 10.172 8.445 8.481 10.103 8.083
DynaForOne Firebirds 21.531 12.898 11.346 10.824 12.825 8.849
Dynasore Losers 20.603 11.129 10.738 7.530 11.344 8.559
East Flanders Flahutes 19.266 11.217 6.837 5.487 8.931 7.190
Here Comes The Brees 21.910 9.313 5.558 7.200 8.825 7.617
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 17.106 13.984 10.862 8.496 12.050 8.599
Tamworth Two 21.841 9.332 8.779 5.406 10.013 7.977
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 11.203 8.085 10.652 5.238 9.256 7.228
Grand Total 18.366 10.931 9.237 6.898 10.415 8.090

Naturally, we’d expect offensive scoring to be much higher. There aren’t many positional groups which end up scoring below the team average. Only two teams manage higher than average with their TEs – the Bombermen and DFO, otherwise it’s the WRs of East Flanders and the Brees that show themselves up as below average.

The other big highlight is the underperformance of the Dynasty of Sadness’ QB, clocking in a full 7 points below the league average QB. To put that in context, 7 points per game equates to 112 points across the year. If you add 112 points on to the 2,544 the Dynasty scored in the 16 weeks of the season, they’d move from 9th top scorers to… oh… 9th. But now only 25 points behind league runners-up Here Comes The Brees in 8th.

QB RB WR TE Off Total
Champions of the Sun 200.35% 142.58% 116.76% 52.36% 125.98%
Dyna Hard 181.01% 139.89% 115.09% 33.82% 121.65%
Dynablaster Bombermen 224.55% 125.84% 104.48% 104.92% 124.99%
DynaForOne Firebirds 243.31% 145.75% 128.21% 122.32% 144.93%
Dynasore Losers 240.71% 130.03% 125.46% 87.97% 132.54%
East Flanders Flahutes 267.97% 156.02% 95.10% 76.32% 124.22%
Here Comes The Brees 287.64% 122.26% 72.97% 94.52% 115.86%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 198.92% 162.62% 126.31% 98.80% 140.12%
Tamworth Two 273.80% 116.98% 110.05% 67.77% 125.51%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 154.99% 111.86% 147.36% 72.46% 128.05%
Grand Total 227.03% 135.13% 114.18% 85.27% 128.74%

Those percentages then… they say basically the same kind of thing I was saying above. Dyna Hard and, to a lesser extent, Champions of the Sun may want to look at their TE options going forward.

Special Teams then?

PK PN  ST Total
Champions of the Sun 86.850 99.525 186.375
Dyna Hard 100.100 125.400 225.500
Dynablaster Bombermen 95.150 104.025 199.175
DynaForOne Firebirds 108.150 90.325 198.475
Dynasore Losers 104.250 93.320 197.570
East Flanders Flahutes 124.500 78.750 203.250
Here Comes The Brees 136.500 103.975 240.475
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 107.050 86.475 193.525
Tamworth Two 90.150 94.865 185.015
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 120.450 94.375 214.825
Grand Total 1073.150 971.035 2044.185

I have nothing really to say here.

PK PN ST Total
Champions of the Sun 2.90% 3.33% 6.23%
Dyna Hard 3.43% 4.29% 7.72%
Dynablaster Bombermen 3.34% 3.66% 7.00%
DynaForOne Firebirds 3.48% 2.91% 6.39%
Dynasore Losers 3.46% 3.10% 6.56%
East Flanders Flahutes 4.92% 3.11% 8.03%
Here Comes The Brees 5.09% 3.88% 8.97%
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 3.55% 2.86% 6.41%
Tamworth Two 3.21% 3.38% 6.59%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.73% 3.71% 8.44%
Grand Total 3.77% 3.41% 7.18%

But now… I still have nothing really to say.

Yeah. That’s all you’re getting this time.