Tag: Statistics

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Seven

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

In last week’s Stat Blat, whilst looking at the Dynablaster Bombermen, I noted that their defensive line had been an area of weakness but something they’d addressed already with the trade for Aaron Donald. Well, this week the Dynablaster Bombermen’s defensive line scored 75.5 points on their own. That got me wondering about the highest and lowest performances from each positional group through both seasons so far. Was 75.5 a record high for a defensive line? Surely it must be! Read on to find out.

Note: Week 17 of the 2014 season was not included when collating these results.

QB

Highest:

1 Firebirds 37.12 S1 W7 Rusty Wilson
2 Tamworth Two 36.6 S1 W10 Aaron Rodgers
3 Firebirds 36.36 S1 W16 Rusty Wilson
4 Tamworth Two 34.92 S2 W3 Aaron Rodgers
5 Firebirds 34.24 S1 W5 Rusty Wilson

 

The running here are obviously dominated by God’s chosen QB (Wilson) and the Arm of the Doubtful (Rodgers). It’s a classic battle between good and evil.

Lowest:

1 Sadness 0.00 S1 W1 “Fuck You” Cam Newton
2 Breeses 0.36 S1 W16 Andrew Luck
3 Dungeoneers 1.84 S2 W5 Nick “Cunt” Foles
4 Sadness 2.62 S1 W6 Teddy Bridgewater
5 Losers 2.72 S1 W14 Peter Manning

 

Fun fact: In week 14 of season 1, David left Andy Dalton (26.28 points), Joe Flacco (24.36 points) and Derek Carr (22.36 points) on the bench in favour of Peter (2.72 points). Now, kids, that is how you PLOB yourself right up. For those of you wondering, Andrew Luck did not leave that game injured. He threw for just over 100 yards with 0 TDs and 2 interceptions. Impressive stuff.

RB

Highest

1 Breeses 74.2 S2 W5 Isaiah Crowell, Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin
2 Breeses 65.6 S2 W7 Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller
3 Firebirds 61.8 S1 W16 CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Marshawn Lynch
4 Tamworth Two 61.6 S2 W6 Chris Ivory, LeSean McCoy, Jonathan Stewart
5 Champions 61.4 S1 W14 Le’veon Bell, Isaiah Crowell, Latavius Murray

 

Come on, who saw that coming at the start of the year? Who also saw Isaiah Crowell and Doug Martin each appearing in 2 of the 5 best RB performances of the Dynabowl so far…

Lowest

1 Dungeoneers 5.625 S1 W9 LaGarette Blount, Branden Oliver
2 Firebirds 7.3 S1 W6 Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch
3 Breeses 8.2 S2 W3 Isaiah Crowell, Doug Martin
4 Champions 8.3 S2 W1 Latavius Murray, Damien Williams
5 Firebirds 8.4 S1 W8 Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch

 

Crowell, Martin, Latavius Murray and Marshawn Lynch have the distinction of being in both the best and the worst RB groups. If I was better at this I’d probably give you some analysis right now. Here’s what I got: blah blah blah analysis blah blah best-selling book Fantasy Life blah blah analysis blah state-the-obvious.

WR/TE

Highest:

1 Kelkowski 109 S1 W1 Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, Cor!Darelle Patterson, Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas
2 Losers 93.3 S1 W10 Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Torrey Smith, Larry Donnell, Jimmy Graham
3 Kelkowski 91.5 S1 W2 Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, Cor!Darelle Patterson, Julius Thomas, Delanie Walker
4 Firebirds 91 S1 W8 TY Hilton, Julio Jones, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski
5 Firebirds 89.7 S1 W6 TY Hilton, Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski

 

We still love you Cor! Darelle! The passing game has never been better than those heady days of the first weeks of the Dynabowl. What a glorious time that was! It just goes to show, it’s a running league.

Lowest:

1 Breeses 12.1 S2 W1 DeSean Jackson, Charles Johnson, Steve Smith Sr., Terrance Williams, Owen Daniels
2 Dungeoneers 14.25 S1 W14 Keenan Allen, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Kenny Stills, Kyle Rudolph, Jason Witten
3 Breeses 14.4 S1 W9 Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon, Andrew Hawkins, Steve Smith Sr., Zach Ertz
4 DynaHarder 17 S1 W12 Kenny Britt, Julian Edelman, Cecil Shorts III, Sammy Watkins, Jace Amaro
5 Dungeoneers 18.1 S2 W5 Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Michael Floyd, Reuben Randle, Coby Fleener

 

Tough reading for fans of the Brees and the Dungeoneers. Probably not surprising reading though.

SPEC

Highest:

1 Dungeoneers 23.6 S2 W4 Cairo Santos, Andy Lee
2 Sadness 22.725 S1 W9 Adam Vinatieri, Shane Lechler
3 DynaHarder 21.3 S1 W11 Mason Crosby, Marquette King
4 Breeses 21.2 S1 W10 Matt Bryant, Brett Kern
5 Dungeoneers 20.475 S1 W12 Cody Parkey, Mike Scifres

 

Lowest:

1 Dungeoneers 1.65 S1 W14 Cody Parkey, Mike Scifres
2 Dungeoneers 3 S1 W4 Cody Parkey, Pat O’Donnell
3 Losers 3.3 S1 W16 Justin Tucker, Donnie Jones
4 Champions 3.95 S1 W6 Shaun Suisham, Brad Nortman
5 Firebirds 4 S1 W8 Dan Bailey, Tim Masthay

 

The Dungeoneers showing that famed consistency hear by having two of the best scoring special teams units and two of the worst. I like that Parkey and Scifres put up over 20 points in week 12 and then under 2 in week 14. Absolute gangbusters.

DL

Highest:

1 Bombermen 75.5 S2 W7 Aaron Donald, Haloti Ngata, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams
2 Breeses 69.5 S1 W10 Marcell Dareus, Aaron Donald, Michael Bennett, Cameron Jordan
3 Kelkowski 58.75 S1 W7 Nick Fairley, Everson Griffen, DeMarcus Ware
4 DynaHarder 55.35 S1 W13 Jonathan Hankins, Ezekiel Ansah, JJ Watt
5 Champions 50.5 S1 W8 Tom Johnson, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake

 

Well, there’s the answer to your question. Yes, the Bombermen’s score on the line this week was the highest ever. By a comfortable margin too. The players on that top 5 read very much like a who’s who of defensive line talent, it’s not difficult to see why these guys scored like they did. Plus Tom Johnson’s there too. Good old Tom Johnson. Who’s Tom Johnson?

Lowest:

1 Dungeoneers 1.25 S2 W3 Tyrone Crawford, Demarcus Lawrence, Stephen Paea
2= Sadness 1.5 S2 W1 Sharrif Floyd, Damontre Moore, Devin Taylor
2= Sadness 1.5 S1 W1 Michael Brockers, Jared Allen, Calais Campbell
4 Champions 1.75 S1 W4 Steve McClendon, Mike Daniels, Cameron Wake
5 Bombermen 2.5 S2 W1 Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams

 

A round of applause for the Dynasty of Sadness in managed to fashion a tie for 2nd place in the worst D-line performances of all time. Mike and Mark certainly know how to get their defence off to a strong start to the year. Looking at the players in these units it’s very noticeable that one of these is not like the other. 2.5 points for the Williams twins and Cameron Wake would have been unthinkable last season.

LB

Highest:

1 Champions 63.25 S1 W8 Anthony Barr, Jamie Collins, Justin Houston, Wesley Woodyard
2 DynaHarder 57.55 S1 W5 Von Miller, CJ Mosley, Alec Ogletree, Jason Worilds
3 Kelkowski 55.8 S2 W6 Stephone Anthony, Karlos Dansby, D’Qwell Jackson, Brandon Marshall
4 Champions 55.5 S2 W6 Anthony Barr, Shaq Barrett, Jamie Collins, Justin Houston
5 Champions 53.95 S1 W4 Anthony Barr, Justin Houston, Khalil Mack, Wesley Woodyard

 

It’s like no-one believed me when I said linebacker was the most important fantasy position.

Lowest:

1 Losers 1.25 S2 W3 Ryan Kerrigan, Paul Kruger, Alex Okafor
2 Bombermen 3.5 S2 W7 Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Sean Lee
3 Firebirds 5 S1 W4 Mason Foster, Julius Peppers, Lawrence Timmons
4 Firebirds 5.75 S1 W3 Mason Foster, Manti Te’o, Lawrence Timmons
5 Dungeoneers 6.25 S1 W8 Connor Barwin, Dwight Freeney, KJ Wright

 

I seriously don’t know who Mason Foster is. If this week’s Stat Blat has made me realise anything it’s quite how bad Neil’s team was at the start of last season. What a tremendous rags to riches story his Dynabowl triumph was. Someone should film that. With Paul Giamatti playing Neil.

DB

Highest:

1 Bombermen 76.45 S1 W10 Casey Hayward, Bradley Roby, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, James Ihedigbo
2 Bombermen 73.2 S2 W4 Stephon Gilmore, Bradley Roby, Corey Graham, TJ Ward
3 Sadness 59.75 S2 W3 William Gay, Jerraud Powers, Eric Berry, Tyrann Mathieu
4 Kelkowski 58 S2 W3 Janoris Jenkins, Jimmy Smith, Mike Adams, Malcolm Jenkins
5 Kelkowski 57.55 S1 W13 Janoris Jenkins, Devin McCourty, Mike Adams, Rashad Johnson

 

The fact that the Bombermen and Kelkowski each have 2 entries here somewhat belies my theory that DB scoring is entirely random. Note that the presence of more season 2 scores in this entry than others is likely influenced by the point increased for Defended Passes this season.

Lowest:

1 DynaHarder 3.75 S1 W7 Patrick Peterson, Sam Shields, Deone Bucannon, Jonathan Cyprien
2 Sadness 4.5 S1 W10 Travis Carrie, Kyle Fuller, Eric Berry, Tyrann Mathieu
3 Dungeoneers 5 S1 W11 Vontae Davis, Chris Harris, George Iloka, Rahim Moore
4= Losers 6 S1 W4 Darius Butler, Logan Ryan, Chris Conte, Glover Quin
4= DynaHarder 6 S1 W13 Antoine Cason, Patrick Peterson, Micah Hyde, Eric Reid

 

I can’t help but think that at least three of those entries would make pretty good real-life secondaries. That’s fantasy football for you, I guess.

OFF

Highest:

1 Losers 177.205 S1 W4
2 Kelkowski 165.36 S1 W8
3 Firebirds 164.34 S1 W5
4 Losers 164.21 S2 W2
5 Firebirds 161.62 S1 W14

 

Lowest:

1 Dungeoneers 52.7 S1 W14
2 Sadness 54.97 S1 W11
3 Breeses 58.345 S2 W1
4 Bombermen 62.19 S2 W7
5 Dungeoneers 64.965 S2 W5

 

DEF

Highest:

1 Kelkowski 143.6 S1 W13
2 Tamworth Two 142.05 S2 W6
3 Bombermen 130.95 S1 W10
4 Champions 129.25 S1 W8
5 Firebirds 126.55 S1 W16

 

Lowest:

1 Firebirds 26.75 S1 W1
2 Tamworth Two 27 S1 W16
3 Dungeoneers 32.25 S1 W11
4 Sadness 35 S1 W10
5 Kelkowski 36.5 S1 W14

 

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 6

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

It’s the start of week 7 of the 2015 NFL season which is, near as dammit, halfway through the fantasy NFL season so, this week, Stat Blats will look at positional groupings in the DynaBowl to breakdown which parts of your team are riding high and which are down in the dumps. I’ll start with the raw data, then do a team-by-team breakdown, looking at the season so far with some slipshod analysis. You’re welcome. You’re all so very welcome.

Quarterback

Team Starters Average
1 Tamworth Two Rodgers, Palmer 21.76
2 Dynaforone Firebirds Wilson, Rivers 18.28
3 DynaHarder E. Manning, Mariota, Stafford 18.03
4 Champions of the Sun Roethlisberger, Palmer 17.57
5 Kelkowski Bortles, Kaepernick, Romo 17.43
6 Here Comes the Brees Brady, Luck 16.77
7 East Flanders Dungeoneers Newton, Tannehill, Foles 16.61
8 Dynablaster Bombermen Ryan 16.21
9 Dynasore Losers Dalton, P. Manning 15.32
10 Dynasty of Sadness Brees, Bridgewater 11.80

 

Running Backs

For sections under flex consideration I have worked out the average number of starters in each position over the first 6 weeks and divided the average by that number. This produces an average score per player you start at that position, not favouring teams that start more players in one position.

1 Dynasore Losers Forte, Peterson, Lewis (3 starters (2.5 av)) 34.27

(13.71)
2 Here Comes the Brees Freeman, Martin, Crowell, Miller (4 starters (2.83 av)) 37.05

(13.09)
3 Champions of the Sun L. Bell, L. Murray, Rawls, Da. Williams, Spiller (5 starters (2.17 av) 24.95

(11.5)
4 Tamworth Two Ivory, Du. Johnson, McCoy, McFadden, Stewart, K. Williams, A. Williams (7 starters (3 av)) 32.30

(10.77)
5 Kelkowski Blue, Foster, Ingram, D. Murray, Yeldon (5 starters (3 av)) 31.72

(10.57)
6 DynaHarder Charles, Morris, Randle, Sankey, Gurley (5 starters (3 av)) 31.11

(10.37)
7 East Flanders Dungeoneers Forsett, Woodhead, Hyde, Jennings (4 starters (3 av)) 28.05

(9.35)
8 Dynasty of Sadness Abdullah, Blount, M. Jones, Lacy, Vereen, De. Williams (6 starters (3 av)) 26.73

(8.91)
9 Dynablaster Bombermen Bernard, Ellington, Gordon, J. Hill, Da. Johnson (5 starters (3 av)) 25.96

(8.65)
10 Dynaforone Firebirds Anderson, Gore, C. Johnson, Lynch (4 starters (2.83 av)) 19.38

(6.85)

 

Receivers (WRs and TEs)

1 Dynaforone Firebirds Colston, Edelman, Ju. Jones, Royal, Thomas, Bennett, Clay, Gates, Gronkowski (9 starters (5.17 av)) 60.84

(11.77)
2 Dynasore Losers Agholor, Fitzgerald, Ja. Jones, Moncrief, Sanders, T. Smith, Donnell, Graham (8 starters (5.5 av)) 57.15

(10.39)
3 Kelkowski Baldwin, Cobb, Ca. Johnson, Maclin, Barnidge, Witten (6 starters (5 av)) 48.38

(9.68)
4 Champions of the Sun J. Brown, Evans, Hankerson, Harvin, Hopkins, Robinson, White, Kelce, Reed, Walker (10 starters (5.83 av)) 54.45

(9.34)
5 Dynablaster Bombermen Boldin, Cooks, A. Green, A. Johnson, Matthews, Shorts, Olsen, Sefarian-Jenkins (8 starters (5 av)) 44.47

(8.89)
6 Dynasty of Sadness Beckham, D. Bryant, Crowder, Decker, Ginn, Tate, Wheaton, Allen, Chandler, Escobar, L. Green (11 starters (5 av)) 41.71

(8.34)
7 East Flanders Dungeoneers Adams, Allen, Cooper, Mi. Floyd, S. Johnson, Marshall, Randle, Stills, Fleener, Rudolph (10 starters (5 av)) 41.17

(8.23)
8 DynaHarder Austin, A. Brown, Hilton, Hurns, M. Jones, Watkins, Wright, Bennett, Cook (9 starters (5 av)) 40.33

(8.07)
9 Tamworth Two Coleman, Crabtree, V. Jackson, Jeffery, Landry, Snead, Wallace, Ebron, Rodgers (9 starters (5 av)) 39.48

(7.90)
10 Here Comes the Brees Benjamin, Garcon, D. Jackson, Ch. Johnson, S. Smith Sr., T. Williams, Daniels, Eifert, Ertz (9 starters (5.17 av)) 39.00

(7.54)

 

Special Teams

1 Dynasore Losers Gostkowski, Tucker, Anger, King 16.86

(8.43)
2 DynaHarder Bryant, McManus, Hekker, Pinion 15.30

(7.65)
3 Dynablaster Bombermen Brown, Schmidt 14.58

(7.29)
4 Champions of the Sun Catanzaro, McAfee, D. Colquitt 13.48

(6.74)
5 East Flanders Dungeoneers Parkey, Santos, Lee 12.56

(6.28)
6 Dynaforone Firebirds Crosby, Koch 12.51

(6.26)
7 Dynasty of Sadness Hauschka, Vinatieri, Lechler 11.91

(5.96)
8 Here Comes the Brees Gano, Jones, Kern 10.91

(5.46)
9 Tamworth Two Carpenter, Coons, Butler, McAfee 10.42

(5.21)
10 Kelkowski Prater, Gould, Huber, Martin 9.53

(4.77)

 

Defensive Line

1 Tamworth Two McCoy, McDonald, Short, C. Jones, Tuitt, Vernon (3.33 av) 29.67

(8.91)
2 Here Comes the Brees Donald, Howard, Bennett, Cox, Jordan (3.17 av) 27.88

(8.79)
3 DynaHarder Hankins, Harrison, B. Williams, Ansah, Watt (3.17 av) 26.58

(8.38)
4 Champions of the Sun Dareus, Mitchell, Campbell, Carradine, Quinn, Vernon (3 av) 24.54

(8.18)
5 Dynasore Losers Babineaux, Phillips, Siliga, T. Walker, S. Williams, Dunlap, Hughes, Wilkerson (3.33 av) 19.67

(5.91)
6 Dynasty of Sadness Brockers, Floyd, Joseph, J. Allen, Bailey, Clayborn, Moore, Richardson, Taylor (3 av) 16.38

(5.46)
7 Dynaforone Firebirds Atkins, Suh, Edwards, Gilberry, Ch. Johnson, Ninkovich, Tuck (3.5 av) 18.29

(5.23)
8 Kelkowski Brown, Ratliff, Shelton, Avril, Griffen, Jenkins (3 av) 11.25

(3.75)
9 Dynablaster Bombermen Hill, K. Williams, Casey, Liuget, Wake, M. Williams (3 av) 11.00

(3.67)
10 East Flanders Dungeoneers Crawford, Marks, Ealy, Hayward, Lawrence, Paea (3 av) 10.25

(3.42)

 

Linebackers

1 Champions of the Sun Barr, Barrett, Bowman, Collins, Davis, Houston, Mack (4 av) 42.60

(10.65)
2 Dynasty of Sadness P. Brown, David, Irvin, M. Kendricks. T. Smith, Trevathan, Wagner (4 av) 34.22

(8.56)
3 DynaHarder Alonso, Clowney, Hightower, Laurinaitis, V. Miller, Mosely, Orakpo (3.83 av) 29.51

(7.70)
4 Kelkowski Alexander, Anthony, Cushing, Dansby, Greenway, D. Jackson, B. Marshall, Robinson, Ware (4 av) 30.68

(7.67)
5 Tamworth Two Attaouchu, Freeman, C. Jones, Kikaha, Kuechly, Posluszny, Williamson (3.67 av) 26.12

(7.12)
6 Dynaforone Firebirds Graham, D. Johnson, Ogletree, Peppers, Te’o, Timmons (3.5 av) 23.92

(6.83)
7 Dynablaster Bombermen Barwin, Dumervil, Elliott, Lee, C. Matthews, Shazier (4 av) 25.23

(6.31)
8 East Flanders Dungeoneers D. Davis, D. Harris, Ingram, M. Smith, Worrilow (4 av) 23.17

(5.79)
9 Here Comes the Brees Bradham, Butler, Hicks, Jenkins, Kennard, Lansanah, McPhee, Morgan, D. Smith, Tulloch (3.83 av) 20.91

(5.46)
10 Dynasore Losers Hali, Kerrigan, Kruger, Okafor, Rey, Suggs, Unga (3.67 av) 14.92

(4.07)

 

Secondary

1 Dynablaster Bombermen Breeland, V. Davis, Gilmore, Roby, Graham, Ihedigbo, Ward 38.88

(9.72)
2 Champions of the Sun Carrie, Carroll, Flowers, A. Jones, Norman, Church, R. Jones, Weddle 38.13

(9.53)
3 Kelkowski K. Jackson, J. Jenkins, Revis, J. Smith, M. Adams, Bethea, M. Jenkins, Nelson 33.70

(8.43)
4 Dynasty of Sadness Butler, Fletcher, Fuller, Gay, Berry, Matthieu, McDonald, Vaccaro 30.03

(7.51)
5 Tamworth Two Amukamara, Rhodes, Shields, Verner, Chancellor, Collins, Rolle, Whitner 28.96

(7.24)
6 Dynasore Losers J. Banks, Joseph, M. Peters, Logan, Gipson, Moore, Quin 28.18

(7.05)
7 DynaHarder Cox, Peterson, Talib, Webb, Bucannon, Cyprien, Pryor, Reid 26.74

(6.69)
8 Here Comes the Brees Darby, Hall, Toler, Verrett, T. Williams, Conte, R. Johnson, H. Smith, E. Thomas, S. Thomas 25.55

(6.39)
9 East Flanders Dungeoneers Haden, Harris, Maxwell, Clinton-Dix, Hill, Iloka, A. Williams 22.68

(5.67)
10 Dynaforone Firebirds Grimes, Sherman, Trufant, C. Williams, Barron, Burnett, Parker, Searcy 19.64

(4.91)

 

Below is a table that brings each team’s positional ranks, along with their offensive, defensive and overall average points, into one place for easy digestion.

Name QB RB Rec Spec OFF DL LB DB DEF OVR
Champs 4 3 4 4 110 4 1 2 105 216
T2 1 4 9 9 104 1 5 5 85 189
Harder 3 6 8 2 105 3 3 7 83 188
Losers 9 1 2 1 124 5 10 6 63 186
Rules 5 5 3 10 107 8 4 3 76 183
Breeses 6 2 10 8 104 2 9 8 74 178
Bombers 8 9 5 3 101 9 7 1 75 176
Sadness 10 8 6 7 92 6 2 4 81 173
Birds 2 10 1 6 111 7 6 10 62 173
Dung’s 7 7 7 5 98 10 8 9 56 154

 

The above table shows a clear leader and a clear trailer in terms of average overall score, with the other 8 teams clustered with only 15 points separating them from the Tamworth Two in 2nd to the Firebirds in 9th.

Champions of the Sun – The current front-runners for the Owl show good consistency across all categories, indicating playmakers in most spots. Although their offence is above average, the clear difference maker is the defence, scoring 20 points per week more than the 2nd best defence on average.

Tamworth Two – If I’d done this article last week the Hogs would not have been as high up the tables but that’s what scoring 280 points in a week will do for you. Unsurprisingly, having Aaron Rodgers as your QB lands you at #1 in the QB rankings but the dominant defence from last year is rolling back into form too, after a slow start. An injury to Alshon Jeffery has cost the receiving corps but that doesn’t explain #9 by itself. This is an area T2 should, and are, looking to improve but getting better at skill positions mid-season is never easy. Willie Snead should help but they may want to look at special teams too for an improvement.

DynaHarder – A hot start from the owners of last year’s #1 pick has tailed off somewhat but Chris and Steve’s team is still looking strong even with JJ Watt’s transformation into ‘normal NFL player’. Their low ranking at WR is nothing to worry about as the return of Ben Roethlisberger should carry Antonio Brown back to his previous heights and Martavis Bryant is also now back from suspension.

Dynasore Losers – Oh Peter. Peter, Peter, Peter. Should’ve quit while you were ahead. Manning’s struggles have sunk the Losers’ QB ranking but with Andy Dalton cemented at #1 on the Losers’ depth chart now and Derek Carr waiting to back him up the only way is up. Early-season predictions of doom from the Stat Blats were wide of the mark at RB but spot-on at linebacker where the Kruger/Kerrigan axis from last season has failed to hit form this year, leaving the Losers languishing. Their top scoring offence is covering for now but Slater may want to look into trading for some promising talent on his defence.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules – The Rules started slowly but are now rounding into better form, largely thanks to the return from injury of Arian Foster and the return from ‘getting dropped for a 2 yard loss on every play’ of DeMarco Murray. Expect that mediocre #5 rank at RB to rise. The big holes are at special teams (for a pair of owners who won’t shut up about the value of kickers and punters they don’t seem to have any good ones) and on the defensive line, where rookie tackles, people blowing their own fingers off and under-performing Everson Griffen have left them light. If I was Kelkowski I would be hitting the phones and sounding out other owners with depth at DT or DE on potential deals.

Here Comes the Brees – I thought this team were supposed to be terrible? Everybody told me they were terrible, including co-owner Ben Archee. Instead they’re a team with a few big holes and a few big strengths who have perhaps gone into full rebuilding mode too early. Their high ranking at DL is sure to drop with Aaron Donald traded away but the unlikely power-trio of Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller should carry them through at RB. Injuries to DeSean Jackson, Breshad Perriman, Steve Smith Sr and Victor Cruz have left them low at WR, hence the low ranking but, to my mind, there’s enough here to be optimistic.

Dynablaster Bombermen – Well, so much for the Stat Blats pre-season choice for the Owl. Through 6 games the Dynablaster Bombermen have underwhelmed and you can’t really point to any 1 thing as the reason why. The Falcons are 5-1 but Matt Ryan is no more than a low-end QB1 so far. What should have been one of the best RB groups currently looks like one of the worst, whether through injury, game plan or poor play. The saving grace for the Bombermen has been an overpowering set of playmakers in the secondary and solid special teams play. They’ve addressed the problems on the line already with the trade for Aaron Donald at least. In terms of action I think Hendy and Smith have taken the best course with that move. Their offence is horribly underperforming at the moment but the talent is there and this team will score very well when it breaks right. Don’t give up hope!

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness – New year, same problem. The Sadness are unlucky to be 1-5 with their average scores showing them to be at the same level as most other teams but they are let down, for the second season in a row, by poor QB play. Laycock and Simpson went all in on Teddy Bridgeeater and they have to be wondering if that was sensible at this point as the 2nd year QBs play has been questionable at best. Brock Osweiler sits on the bench, rubbing his hands gleefully at every wobbled pass thrown by Peter Manning but should the Sadness be looking to get in another pair of hands until that point? The Stat Blats think so. The rest of the team looks ok with no obvious holes except, maybe, DT but that position can be a lottery. A trade for Allen Bailey has shored up DE and the loss of Dez Bryant is always going to hit your receiving corps hard. TE is a position that could use a bump, having said that. How much for Gary Barnidge…

Dynaforone Firebirds – Is this a typo? What are the current champions doing languishing down here in 9th place on overall average score?! Look at those running backs (ranked 10th). Look at that secondary (ranked 10th). Look at those linebackers (ranked 9th). This is a team with some obvious strengths and some hideous weaknesses. Neil has been trying to address some of the holes on defence but without much luck so far. The secondary could do with an overhaul though. At this point it might be worth dropping the lot of them without guaranteed money and just picking up whoever the best free agents are. Could that end any worse? Injuries to Lynch and the underperformance of CJ Anderson explain the poor RB play but Hawke may well be regretting the trading away of Jeremy Hill in the summer (not that he’s done much better). Chris Johnson’s re-emergence and a recent trade for Ryan Matthews help here and should see the position pick up.

East Flanders Dungeoneers – Well done, Pete. You won a couple of games with this shower. Kudos. We knew it would be a long re-building process for the Dungeoneers and so it’s proving. Pete Conaghan is in the midst of a furious reshuffling that has seen him trade many of his players with short-term value for picks or multiple lottery ticket players. It was never going to be pretty in the short term. The offence has been competent, if inconsistent, but the defence is a disaster. What does Stat Blats recommend? Keep on keeping on, Pete. Keep on keeping on. And maybe don’t pick up quite as many Chargers.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two

Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through.  This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.

Reality Bites

Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.

2014 Week 2 2014 Standing 2015 Week 2 POA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 1-1 (137 poa) 7-6 1-1 (181 poa) +44
Here Comes the Brees 1-1 (146 poa) 8-5 0-2 (152 poa) +6
Dynasore Losers 2-0 (175 poa) 8-5 2-0 (172 poa) -3
Kelkowski 2-0 (212 poa) 8-5 0-2 (153 poa) -59
Dynablinker Obamamen 0-2 (168 poa) 7-6 0-2 (156 poa) -12
Champions of the Sun 1-1 (181 poa) 6-7 2-0 (192 poa) +11
Tamworth Two 2-0 (185 poa) 6-7 1-1 (167 poa) -18
East Flanders Dungeoneers 1-1 (161 poa) 5-8 2-0 (158 poa) -3
Dynasty of Sadness 0-2 (129 poa) 5-8 0-2 (154 poa) +25
DynaHarder 0-2 (168 poa) 5-8 2-0 (223 poa) +55

So let’s get the good news out of the way.  DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process.  The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.

The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3rd highest score in week 1.

On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.

What Might Have Been

Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.

  2014 Week 2 2015 Week 2 PPOA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds 188 ppoa 228 (79% eff) +40
Here Comes the Brees 210 ppoa 228 (67% eff) +18
Dynasore Losers 212 ppoa 244 (70% eff) +32
Kelkowski 265 ppoa 206 (74% eff) -59
Dynablaster Bombermen 233 ppoa 232 (67% eff) -1
Champions of the Sun 204 ppoa 258 (74% eff) +54
Tamworth Two 261 ppoa 216 (77% eff) -45
East Flanders Dungeoneers 212 ppoa 208 (76% eff) -4
Dynasty of Sadness 206 ppoa 211 (73% eff) +5
DynaHarder 250 ppoa 282 (79% eff) +32

The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.

For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.

Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.

In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.

Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week One

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Once the final scores are tallied each week, I, Maximilian Cubberley, feed them into a colourful spreadsheet to produce spurious stats that range from the inaccurate to the irrelevant.  Last season I kept this to myself for the most part but now, you lucky bunch, you get to share in the fun too!  Here’s some stats complete with half-arsed analysis from week 1 of the new season.  As always, when we start something new we look to the past for validation.  Let’s see how everyone’s week 1 compared to last season.

Don’t Take Offence

A lot changed in the off-season.  Players were cut, players were traded, players were drafted, all David’s linebackers retired.  Here’s a sweeping overview of the top offences for week 1 vs the top offences from last season.

Top 5 Offences in 2015:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (125 points on average)
  2. Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules (120 poa)
  3. Dynasore Losers (116 poa)
  4. Champions of the Sun (110 poa)
  5. DynaHard (108 poa)

Top 5 Offences in Week 1:

  1. Dynaforone Firebirds (132 points)
  2. DynaHard (122 points)
  3. Tamworth Two (115 points)
  4. East Flanders Dungeoneers (110 points)
  5. Champions of the Sun (107 points)

Firebirds still sit top of the pile with Champions of the Sun also holding rough position.  DynaHard have powered up the rankings powered by free agent signing Joseph Randle and the surprising competence of the Tennessee Titans offence.  The news is not so good for Kelkowski though where an injury to Arian Foster, Jeremy Maclin’s new position as ‘A Chiefs’ Pass Catcher Who Isn’t Travis Kelce’ and Julius Thomas’ need to break his own hand to avoid having to play for the Jags has dropped them out of the top 5 and resulted in a loss of 14 points from their average.  They can console themselves with the fact that at least they’re not the Dynasore Losers though who plummet from 3rd place to 9th after one week with a staggering loss of 42 points from last season’s average.  Although many predicted a sharp drop-off for Slater’s boys I don’t think anyone can have expected this and the fans will be hoping that this is a blip for the Broncos not the whole story as the Losers’ offence looks lost without Manning and Sanders as Jordy Nelson is also gone for the season.

On the other hand, maybe we should all just take solace in the fact these stats clearly mean nothing.  I mean, the freshly re-branded East Flanders Dungeoneers have somehow appeared in the top 5 there gaining 16 points over their average from last year.  Time will tell if the improvement is sustainable.

As a general note, whilst there are obviously big swings in points from one week to the next it should be noted that for both offence and defence, 4 of the top 5 teams at the end of last season were also in the top 5 in week 1 of last season.

On the Defensive

Top 5 Defences in 2015:

  1. Champions of the Sun (80 poa)
  2. Tamworth Two (79 poa)
  3. DynaHard (77 poa)
  4. Here Comes the Brees (75 poa)
  5. Dynabummer Blastermensch (75 poa)

Top 5 Defences in Week 1:

  1. DynaHard (115)
  2. Champions of the Sun (90)
  3. Here Comes the Brees (71)
  4. DynaforOne Firebirds (65)
  5. Dynasore Losers (61)

As with Offence we can see the Champions of the Sun holding steady and DynaHard showing improvement for what was already a good unit.  Both teams should be encouraged by week 1 of this season and take it as a sign that they can improve on their positions from last season.  Worryingly for the rest of the league, the Firebirds have held steady on offence and improved on defence, cracking the top 5 in week 1 when they finished 2015 as the worst defensive unit.  This improvement is in no small part due to a big improvement at linebacker where Derrick Johnson’s return seems to have sparked life into the team.

Both the Tamworth Two and the Dynabunny Boostermonks dropped out of the top 5 in week 1.  For the Hogs this may not be more than a blip.  They scored 61 points on defence, which is a significant drop but it was a quiet week for elite rushers Chandler Jones and Olivier Vernon that should not become the new norm for these players.  The Dynaboomer Bustermuffs dropped from 75 points to 39 in week 1, in large part due to a dismal 2.5 point effort from their defensive line of Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams.  Whilst this looks more alarming than the story for the Hogs you can’t look at those three names and say you expect single-digit defensive line performances going forward.  The Bambimoons should bounce back next week.

Don’t Be Down on D

Some of you may be looking at your week 1 performances with a frowny face, worrying, particularly, about performance on the defensive side of the ball.  With an average score of 64.5 on D this week the league is running at nearly 10 points under the average defensive performance than last year.  There’s good news however as defensive point scoring trended up as the season went along last year.  In weeks 1 to 5 last season, the average defence scored 65.1 points.  In weeks 10 to 14 the average score jumped to 77.1.  A lot of defensive positions are volatile, particularly DT, CB and S and it takes a while to pinpoint who the best players on the roster (or the wire) are for the coming season.  Chances are that you will see your defences start to pick up more points as the season goes along and getting ahead of that knowledge curve in those volatile positions will help with that.

First to Worst

Now it’s time to overreact!  Which units on which teams were good last season and terrible in week 1?  Let’s find out.

  1. Champions of the Sun RBs – 2015 rank: 3rd, Week 1 rank: 10th.  With Le’Veon Bell and Lagarette Blount suspended, CJ Spiller injured and the Cleveland Cabal traded away it was no surprise to see the Champions rushing attack falter in week 1.  Starting only two players for a combined 8.3 points it must have been painful viewing for the Dayman, even if it doesn’t seem to have cost him the win (disclaimer: scoring adjustments on Thursday are likely to make this statement false very shortly).
  2. Dynasore Losers LBs – 2015 rank: 1st, Week 1 rank: 10th.  As with the Champions’ rushers above, David Slater can’t have been surprised to see his linebacking corps disintegrate.  DeAndre Levy released, Terrell Suggs injured, Tamba Hali another year older and, worst of all, Chris Borland retiring has left the Losers with a makeshift unit heaped on the shoulders of Ryan Kerrigan.  It may pick up (to be honest, they scored 8 points between them this week, it couldn’t get worse) but we won’t be seeing the Losers back to the top of the charts at this position this year.
  3. East Flanders Dungeoneers and Dynasty of Sadness Special Teams – 2015 rank: 4th and 3rd, Week 1 rank: 9th and 10th.  It’s a sure sign that teams have been focusing their off-season efforts in the wrong places when special teams takes a hit.  Despite how commonly acknowledged it is, both Pete Conaghan and Geoffrey Manboob seem to have forgotten that kickers and punters are the lifeblood of the team.  If this course is not corrected immediately I foresee a dismal season ahead for both teams.

Last in the Past

Now let’s look at some of the units that have improved vastly over last season based on week 1 performance.

  1. East Flanders Dungeoneers Running Backs – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  When the Dungeoneers gave up Eddy Lacy for the 2nd pick in the draft it seemed like Pete Conaghan was accepting that sub par was the new par at running back.  When he then traded away Lagarette Blount it seemed the white flag was already waving.  Little did we know that Carlos Hyde was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson.  Hyde put up 168 yards and 2 TDs in week 1 against the Vikings.  Whilst you might question the sustainability of this, Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings contributed another 17 points and the unit was only narrowly pipped to #1 by an Ameer Abdullah and Eddy Lacy-led Sadness rushing unit.  The Dungeoneers won’t get 47 points from this lot every week but they seem to be in a position to sustain a good performance for the season.  They won’t win anything if they don’t sort out their special teams though.  Seriously.  Sort out your special teams, Pete.
  2. Dynaforone Firebirds Linebackers – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd.  Julius Peppers was a lone bright spot for the Firebirds last season at linebacker.  This improvement may need to be taken with a pinch of salt as, despite coming 2nd on the week, the Firebirds’ linebackers put up a good week, not a great week.  Derrick Johnson is a big plus for them though and Brandon Graham will have better days ahead.  The unit is not deep though so an injury in the wrong place or age catching up to Peppers could see the Firebirds dropping back down the rankings again.

That’s it from me for week 1.  Theoretically I will be doing more pointless stats in the coming weeks but, realistically, I’ll probably not be bothered.

Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

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With the draft in the books, it’s time to take stock and work out what it all means… Pre-draft needs are taken from the 2.0 draft.

DynaHarder

Pre-draft needs: QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S

What you started with: 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 4.11, 5.01, 5.11, 6.01, 7.01. Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, DeAngelo Williams

What you ended up with: Toddy Gurley, Marcus Mariota, David Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Jeremy Langford, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, Bradley Pinion, TY Hilton

 

The worst case: An over-used running back, with a succession of muscle injuries and topped off by one few, if any, players ever completely recover from, on a team who’s line has been rebuilt after stinking out 2014… Gurley out T-Riches T-Rich. The least Whisenhunt QB ever, going to work with Ken Whisenhunt, and two depth options from a moribund offence offer no viable fantasy starters. In fact, in the worst case scenario, the only fantasy relevant starter in this draft is a punter. At least there’s TY Hilton, until he signs somewhere else next year.

The upside: Hilton doesn’t land in a bad spot when he leaves the Colts. Gurley’s injury doesn’t take much of his top end and he becomes the best thing in St Louis since Faulk. Mariota rejuvenates the Titans offence, and Cobb quickly moves to the top of the depth chart behind a line which improves a lot as Warmack finally harnesses his talent. Bell replaces Jackson, Forte leaves the Bears and Diggs develops into Teddy’s favourite target. Then you wake up.

Realistically: Mariota may never be a fantasy starter, but he fills the need at QB, Gurley and Cobb offer solid RB3 options and Hilton is a very good WR2. The needs at TE and S can be filled in free agency, with good options available there.

Dynasty of Sadness

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.

What you started with: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.12, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02. Calais Campbell*, Cam Newton

What you ended up with: Ameer Abdullah, Jaelen Strong, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Bud Dupree, Arik Armstead, DeAndre Carter, Zach Zenner, Eddie Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Markus Wheaton, Sheldon Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Paul Richardson*, Drew Brees

The worst case: You wasted your top pick on a back up, and have thoroughly sewn up a wholly worthless Detroit backfield. Robinson and Jones are gambles that don’t work out. Armstead is a project who never projects to anything and Wheaton, Williams and Osweiler don’t even make it through roster cuts. With no targets in the passing game Brees wastes the last couple of years of his fantasy relevance and Teddy never kicks on, leaving two QBs who rank just outside the top 10. A third concussion in three years leads to a long lay off and he returns a shadow of his best on limited workloads, meanwhile Amari Cooper tears it up and somehow this trade ends up looking like the Sadness got the worst end.

The upside: Lacy is the RB1 the Sadness needed and Abdullah quickly replaces Bell who’d plateaued at mediocre to become a good RB2. Strong is a solid WR2/3, Richardson and Dupree are defensive starters, Jones replaces Morris who leaves in free agency and Robinson replaces Gore in 12 months. Carter outperforms Perriman and Armstead develops into the beast his physical stature suggests.

Realistically: Brees fills the need at QB immediately, giving time for Bridgewater to develop, Lacy is a definite filler for RB1. The need at TE could be filled in the medium term with a free agent rookie and Sheldon Richardson is a solid starting DE2. Dupree fills a need at LB and could play from year one. Need at DT remains. The Sadness are definitely improved in the draft, but for all the trading, they ended up with the same number of picks they started with and a lot of the trade pieces were middling at best.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pre-draft needs: RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.

What you started with: 1.03, 2.03, 2.11, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 6.03, 7.03. Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Steve Smith*, Brock Osweiler, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

What you ended up with: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devin Smith, Mike Davis, Rashad Greene, Paul Dawson, Cam Newton, Keenan Allen*, Vernon Davis, Darren Sproles, Ryan Tannehill

The worst case: You traded away a legitimate RB1 at pennies on the dollar, bringing in wide receivers who will get thrown the ball (sideways) by Derek Carr, Genome and sulky Jay Cutler (until he’s cut next summer). Cam is a busted flush, who isn’t a viable fantasy starter without running and Tannehill is not Brees. Keenan Allen turns out to be the guy from 2014, rather than 2013 and Vernon Davis and Darren Sproles are only starting because they play for the Dungeoneers.

The upside: Both Cooper and White hit big early, and given a couple of years Devin Smith develops into a viable starter when the Jets find a QB. Cam’s pocket passing develops, but he remains a big threat on the ground, and a top 5 QB, while Tannehill becomes good tradebait for a QB-needy team. Both Clay and Davis are solid TEs at least for the short term and Levy remains a top tier LB for a few more years. Gore turns out to be actually invincible as has long been suspected.

Realistically: At best one of Cooper and White develops into a top tier WR1/2, but the other is serviceable as a 3rd receiver. Yes, the team sucks this year, but that just puts them in a good position to get a good RB in 2016. Paul Dawson should be a fine ILB, and Keenan Allen’s true worth is probably as a decent WR2, regardless of which, stealing him for Steve Smith was a stroke of genius. Defensive End is still a problem.

Tamworth Two

Pre-draft needs: WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.

What you started with: 1.04, 2.04, 3.04, 4.04, 5.04, 6.04, 7.04. Markus Wheaton, Vernon Davis, Orlando Scandrick, John Brown, Darren Sproles

What you ended up with: DeVante Parker, Duke Johnson, Vic Beasley, DeAndre Smelter, Cameron Artis-Payne, Landon Collins, Denzel Perryman, Karlos Williams, Darren Waller

The worst case: The bust rate on first round receivers is massive, and even if Parker doesn’t bust, there’s no guarantee he is anything more than a low end fantasy starter or flex in Miami’s uninspired offence. Smelter is a reach who never becomes relevant, Johnson is part of a committee and Artis-Payne and Williams only handcuffs. A defensive starter or two don’t make up for the misses on offense, meanwhile John Brown lights it up for the Champions of the Sun.

The upside: Parker works well underneath in Miami’s new offence and gets volume yardage as well as red-zone action. Johnson establishes himself as the main back in Cleveland and Beasley, Collins and Perryman all serve their teams well. Smelter needs time but becomes a flex option, replacing Boldin, while Williams and Artis-Payne back up the main men on Tamworth Two just fine.

Realistically: Parker is probably a WR2 at best, with his viability underneath and in the red zone making him a good option for Tannehill who doesn’t have the arm to make good deep throws. Johnson is in a committee in Cleveland, but could end up being the main part of it, either way, he’s probably a low end RB2 at best. Beasley should be a viable DE and Perryman and Collins could also be viable positional starters. John Brown might be the new TY Hilton, but without Andrew Luck that doesn’t mean much.

Champions of the Sun

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2/3, WR3.

What you started with: 1.05, 2.05, 3.05, 4.05, 5.05, 6.05, 7.05. DeSean Jackson, Paul Richardson*, Da’Norris Searcy, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee.

What you ended up with: Jay Ajayi, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr, Thomas Rawls, Bernardrick McKinney, Hau’oli Kikaha, MyCole Pruitt, Michael Bennett, Marcel Dareus, Calais Campbell*, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, John Brown

The worst case: Ajayi never displaces Lamar Miller, Williams is used situationally, Fowler never makes it to the NFL due to injuries, Dareus moves to nose, Helu disappears into Oakland’s depth chart much as he did in Washington, neither of the Browns are viable starters and Michael Bennett is more of a nose alongside San’derrick Marks. Lots of flex players, but few starters.

The upside: John Brown is the new TY Hilton with Palmer back, Dante Fowley and Williams develop into top tier NFL ends, and MyCole Pruitt takes over as the Vikings Tight End. Dareus ends up with all the play of an end, while remaining a DT by position on MFL.

Realistically: Having traded down and then out of the first there wasn’t a potential star available, and picking up the best two defenders in the mid rounds represents value, if not necessarily guaranteeing any success. Ajayi might be short term due to injury concerns, but it’s a short term position anyway, and with bell leading the RBs there’s  no need for him to be a star. Rawls is a wasted pick, but gives you a monopoly on the Seattle running backs who never actually play.

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Pre-draft needs: ‘elite’ players.

What you started with: 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 4.13, 5.06, 6.06, 7.06. Danny Lansanah, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Steven Jackson*

What you ended up with: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Justin Hardy, Trae Waynes, Shane Ray, Grady Jarrett, Trey Flowers, Christian Ringo, Jeremy Hill, Orlando Scandrick

The worst case: Gordon ensures control of a San Diego backfield that sucks, his tendency to bounce outside and get tackled for a loss, relying on speed to beat sub-par college players proves unsurprisingly unsuccessful in the NFL. Conley discovers why Kansas receivers didn’t score a TD at all last year, Hardy is the new Harry Douglas while David Johnson ensure Arizona’s committee of mediocrity is maintained. With Green returning and Bernard fitter, Hill ends up part of a committee also, although not as mediocre as the one in Arizona, neither Bernard nor Hill are much more than RB2s.

The upside: Hill, Ellington, Johnson and Bernard fall into more traditional 1/2 roles giving 2 good starters, Conley shows the reason why KC didn’t score touchdowns was a lack of talent, rather than Alex Smith & Andy Reid and Gordon is the game-changing playmaker the Chargers traded up for. Waynes is a solid selection at CB, and Scandrick makes up a starting pair at the position with him.

Realistically: There’s probably an RB1 somewhere in the mess of Ellington, Hill, Bernard, Johnson, Oliver and Gordon, but whether there’s more than one is hard to call, and they could easily all get in each others ways. Conley and Hardy are upside picks, but both probably top out at WR2 or WR3. Shane Ray could be a decent DE in a year’s time, but might not offer much immediately. Hill and Gordon offer the best chance of hitting on an elite player and Green’s return to fitness should provide one at WR, but ultimately, the need to find an elite player or two probably wasn’t met in this draft.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Pre-draft needs: QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.

What you started with: 1.07, 2.07, 3.07, 4.07, 5.07, 6.07, 7.07.

What you ended up with: TJ Yeldon, Devin Funchess, Stephone Anthony, Randy Gregory, Danny Shelton, Ahmed Brooks

The worst case: Gerhart takes over the Jags backfield making Yeldon wait. Funchess’ lack of pace combined with Cam’s erratic throwing make for a poor combination, Anthony barely plays, Shelton is a nose and Randy Gregory is a bit too much of a prick for the cowboys to stomach.

The upside: Gregory is a solid steal in the middle rounds, and Anthony blossoms with improved scoring for inside backers. Funchess is an Olsen like workable WR2, and Yeldon gives the Jags a proper running back threat, it not at elite one.

Realistically: There’s still a need at Tight End, and Shelton (being a Nose) is probably not going to fill the need at tackle. Projecting Anthony as an LB1 in the short-term seems a streatch, and the need at QB was not filled due to Kelkowski not recognising the danger when the Losers traded up. Yeldon might be a starter at RB, but there wasn’t too serious a need at the position anyway, so he might end up being a reasonable chip for a trade. Funchess could go either way, but projects as at best a bench option in a fairly limited Panthers passing attack.

DynaSore Losers

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB

What you started with: 1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08, 5.08, 6.08, 7.08. Sheldon Richardson.

What you ended up with: Nelson Agholor, Jameis Winston, Sammie Coates, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Clive Walford, Jake Ryan, Danielle Hunter

The worst case: Agholor dropped for a reason, and that reason was Sam Bradford, who isn’t good before he gets hurt and is Mark Sanchez after. Coates never gets a look in at Pittsburgh and Odighizuwa never replaces JPP. Winston meanwhile is every bit as good as advertised and becomes the best quarterback serving time in federal prison, trading Richardson for him turns out even worse as the massive hole at DE goes unfilled.

The upside: Winston is every bit as good as advertised in the NFL, proving to be almost as good as Luck and replacing Manning for 2016 in the Losers starting QB slot. Agholor develops into a WR1 due to his ability to turn routine plays into huge gains and be a threat in the red zone. Coates meanwhile shows his big game talent regularly, replacing Bryant and Wheaton as a clear #2 option for Roethlisberger. Ryan and Odighizuwa are solid defensive starters from the early days and Walford is a decent bench option at TE.

Realistically: There’s a hole at DE that Odighizuwa won’t fill in 2015, and Hunter is even less likely to. No viable tackle is found and the weaknesses in defence undermine the team by costing silly points each week. There is a serious lack of depth at RB, and even covering bye weeks, let alone injuries, will be tough.

Here Comes the Brees

Pre-draft needs: RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S

What you started with: 1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09. Marcel Dareus, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, Keenan Allen, Martellus Bennett

What you ended up with: Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Maxx Williams, Shaq Thompson, Garrett Grayson, Jordan Hicks, Steven Jackson*, Steve Smith*, DeSean Jackson, Danny Lansanah, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee

The worst case: Perriman, Dorsett and Williams offer little to nothing in 2015, and don’t exactly light it up in 2016 either. Jackson remains the boom/bust receiver who misses 2-4 games a year with injuries. Owning the browns backfield is as worthwhile as it would seem and Coleman is a RB2 in the good years. Keenan Allen refinds his 2013 form.

The upside: Coleman establishes himself early and for a number of years as an RB1-/2+ and Perriman replaces Smith fairly seemlessly as a WR2-/3+. Williams is a solid tight end with a QB who loves throwing to him, and establishes himself as a solid TE1 and Dorsett’s talent sees him work his way into the team in 2015, with Hilton barely missed in 2016. Marquise Lee becomes a good depth receiver with his fitness issues overcome.

Realistically: There were a lot of players drafted, but this is a long-term sort of draft. Tight Ends rarely offer much in year one, Dorsett doesn’t offer much hope of a strong first year and Baltimore’s offence is hardly electric, suggesting Perriman will need time also. Ultimately this draft was one to position the team to be more competitive in 2016, and Dorsett, Perriman and Coleman should do that. 2015 will likely be rough though.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Pre-draft needs: DE1, LB, CB, S

What you started with: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7.10. Jeremy Hill, TY Hilton, Ryan Tannehill

What you ended up with: Dorial Green-Beckham, Eric Kendricks, Javorius Allen, Mario Edwards Jr, Henry Anderson, Bryce Petty, Martellus Bennett, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

The worst case: Trading starting offensive pieces for middling offensive and defensive starters is a tactic that backfires. Bennett is an expensive back-up for Gronk if he stays fit and a poor replacement if he doesn’t, Edelman isn’t going to replace Jones if he gets injured (again), and Ogletree is an upgrade at LB but at a stiff price. Kendricks is an ILB and doesn’t crack the top 20 LBs any time soon, Allen is the 3rd RB in Baltimore and DGB is nowhere on the Titans depth chart. Henry Anderson joined one of the worst rushing defences in the NFL.

The upside: Anderson becomes the pass rush in Indianapolis and the upgrades on defence offer more to the Firebirds than they lose on offence. Edelman is a good WR2, with Jones fit ahead of him and Hill isn’t missed because Lynch and Anderson carry the rock effectively and a lot.

Realistically: If / when Jones gets an injury the team will suffer as Edelman simply doesn’t have the potential to put up WR1 points that Hilton did and while Hill won’t be missed with Anderson and Lynch putting up solid RB1 points it’s likely that the points gained on defensive upgrades such as Ogletree and Levy only balance those lost on offensive players, with the team overall showing more variance in scoring and losing one or two more games in down weeks as a result.

 

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