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Guest Previews 2015 – Dynablaster Bombermen by Pete Conaghan

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2014 Record: 7-6, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Offseason Review

The Bombermen had a reasonable draft, which was elevated by trading up a spot to nab Melvin Gordon at #5 after Tamworth took Devante Parker and The Brees took Tevin Coleman in a Bortles-esqe pick backed by deep conviction.  But can Gordon produce with a brand new offensive line in SD (one player returning at his position) and a second-year OC pilloried for his lack of imagination?  A hundred draw plays on 2nd and long will tell the story.

Free Agency saw a lot of wheeling and dealing with the view of bolstering attack and defense, the Bombermen committing resources to linebacker and corner in a reversal of the league’s accepted wisdom. Conor Barwin is a 3-down LB who will thrive and contribute even if his sack total may have been an outlier last year. The top fantasy corner in the game, Vontae Davis, will be top five for years to come, maybe.

Putting together potentially three of the best RBBCs in the league was an impressive feat, and hopefully doesn’t lead to angst further down the line. All six RBs are expected to get plenty of touches.

Outgoing trades were mostly fringe players and should not harm the team.

Where they will improve:  The Bombermen will hope that they have the right mixture of youth and experience, welcoming Andre Johnson into the WR corps to help out Anquan Boldin and the younger guys. Depth should not be an issue, with most position groups augmented and steady backups acquired.

Where they will regress:  The team strengthened at almost all positions, so any regression in league position may be linked to other teams becoming stronger more quickly – can the Bombermen keep up with the arms race? The only warning flags that exist are performance related – could the young 2nd and 3rd year running backs regress? They are unproven over time but the team’s depth should be enough to overcome all but a blanket running back failure.

2015 Prediction: First round of playoffs. Bombermen are a solid team, but do they have the star power to break open a playoff game?

Guest Previews 2015: Dynasore Losers by Ian Kulkowski

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Welcome to a series of GM-led previews of the various teams of the Dynabowl Fantasy Football League. The opening preview is of the Dynasore Losers, GMed by David Slater and is brought to you by the letters K, U, L, K again, O, S, K for a third time and I.

Dynasore Losers

2014 record
8-5, 1st in Peter. 2nd in Points for, 2nd in Potential Points, 2nd in All play, semi final losers, 3rd place

“Everyone else’s team sucks” & “My way is definitely best” is what Slatz would almost certainly say if he were to write his own preview. Unfortunately looking through the train wreck that is their old, broken roster I can see nothing but pain and heartache ahead for the Losers this season.
But first, let’s try and focus on the positive a bit and see where the Losers have improved from last year…

Improvement
2 words. AP. That’s it. Without the child beating former superstar’s return to the game, this roster would be as dead as the majority of Josh Gordon’s brain cells. Will the return of not-human Peterson be enough to give this team a chance of repeating last year’s success? Whilst Peterson is capable of putting up some ridiculous numbers, even he will probably not be enough to carry this roster back to the playoffs.
Oh the other area of improvement for the Losers is kicker & punter (as described in great detail in the Commissioner’s preview). But so what? They’re kickers & punters.

Regression
Where to begin. Slatz built his roster around a solid aged core with the aforementioned Peterson and QB Peter Manning as lynchpins to the roster. After failing spectacularly during the final 5 weeks of last season there are now serious questions over Peter’s position as stud QB. With Manning potentially dropping down (and maybe out of) the top 10 QBs, this takes the Losers from a position of strength to bunch of middling options.
The addition of Winston (who definitely hasn’t sexually assualted anyone) to accompany Raiders sophomore Carr should provide a good future at the position, but it is likely too early for either of these to help the team too much this year.
There is a similar story at RB. Last years’ star performer (4th ranked overall RB) Forte will turn 30 during the season and is surely hitting the decline phase of his career. Depth at the position is also an issue with the loss of Stewart & Robinson in free agency. There are only 2 NFL starters amongst the RB corps so this is definitely a position which will cause GM Slatz some headaches as the season wears on.
More trouble at WR as the team has lost it’s anchor (and 2nd ranked WR last year) in Jordy Nelson. With Josh Gordon never likely to return the Losers are left with Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith & Larry Fitzgerald as their probable starting WR’s. Hardly the most fearsome foursome. TE also sees a potential downgrade with Graham’s move to Seattle.
On the defensive side of the ball, injuries, free agency and early retirement have left holes in the Losers roster. There are still good starters at most positions but the depth is now near non existent.

Ceiling
If Peter returns to his record breaking best, Adrian has a career year and the Losers find some receivers from somewhere then maybe all is not lost and this team has an outside shot of making the playoffs.
Then again, maybe not!

Floor
The floor’s (thankfully) the limit for the losers this year. If things don’t go their way then avoiding the prized first pick in the 2016 draft could be deemed a success.

Prediction
5-8. A complete reversal of last year and barring some miracle this losers franchise is going nowhere fast. GM Slatz has a big decision on his hands. Does he stick with the plan and try to compete as best he can, or does he sell the family silver and go into full blown rebuild mode.

2015 Commish Previews: Dyna Hard

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Team: Dyna Hard – Chris Braithwaite/Steve Smith Jnr

2014 Record: 5-8, 1st pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Todd Gurley (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB), David Cobb (RB), Tyler Lockett (WR), Bradley Pinion (P)

Free Agency – Joseph Randle (RB)

Trade – TY Hilton (WR), Kendall Wright (WR)

Significant Losses:

Trade – Julian Edelman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Allen Hurns (WR)

Preview:

In 2014 the Hard had an AWE of 7.12 wins, good for 4th best in the league, and the joint biggest differential in the league, and was over 96% certain to win a minimum of 5 games. Schedule was undoubtedly the biggest factor in the end of season record and the opportunity to select first in the draft.

In addition, while Dyna Hard were a middle-of-the-pack 5th in terms of total points scored, they were the second worst coached team in the league 25.2% of potential points left on the bench. In fact, based on potential points, Dyna Hard were the best team in the league. Some of that inefficiency was down to the difficulty of picking the right defensive players each week, with defensive points so variable, you’d still hope for better selection overall in 2015.

Given all of the above, you’d expect the team to be better in 2015 regardless of any moves made, but the two key incoming players could make the Hard the team to beat this season. TY Hilton gives them a pretty fearsome WR triple, alongside Antonio Brown and Sammy Watkins and while Todd Gurley may not be a part of this offence for the first half of the season, they have probably the strongest four-pronged RB core in the league, with Jamaal Charles, Alfred Morris and Joseph Randle, who looks set to be the starter behind Dallas’ all-world offensive line.

Randle, of course, won’t repeat the feats of DeMarco Murray last year, even if he thinks there was some ‘meat left on the bone’ in 2014, but he still stands a good chance of being a top 10 back in 2015.

The rest of the offence probably only rates as adequate, but I’m not sure that matters with all the strength on view at RB and WR. It’s a little bit of a shame that the talent is split 4 RBs and 3 WRs given the league limits allow 3 RBs and 4 WRs. Perhaps a trade will come later in the season, when Gurley is producing and bye cover is dealt with.

On the defence, non-human JJ Watt returns, and Greg Hardy will be suiting up from week 5 giving them a pretty fearsome DE pairing, and there are above average players at most positions. The concern is in the depth. If injuries hit, they could hit hard. Out of 7 LBs on the roster, 4 of them basically didn’t play in 2014 (Alonso, Mathis and Weatherspoon didn’t suit up, Clowney needn’t have bothered), and while there’s talent there, you’ve got to be concerned about how much play you’re going to get out of them in 2015.

Finally, the team are pretty hard up against the cap. At time of writing they need to drop 9 players, assuming 2 more go to the taxi squad and are $11 over the cap. They’ll get under no problem – the minimum savings there are $11 – but there’s little wriggle room for bringing in cover if players move to IR in the season.

Verdict:

With a little better management and a little better luck in the schedule, this team would have made the playoffs in 2014. With the improvements made in the off-season and barring injury to key components, that should be the minimum expectation in 2015.

Prediction:

8-5 and eventual champions. The record is a conservative estimate. In 2014, 3 teams finished with a league best 8-5 record. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 9-4 or better but given the degree of variation in scoring 8-5 seems appropriate.

2015 Commish Preview: Dynablaster Bombermen

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Team: Dynablaster Bombermen – Benjamin Hendy/Dan Smith

2014 Record: 7-6, 6th pick, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Melvin Gordon (RB), David Johnson (RB), Chris Conley (WR), Justin Hardy (WR), Trae Waynes (CB), Shane Ray (LB)

Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB), Cameron Wake (DE), Joe Flacco (QB)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Andre Johnson (WR), Vontae Davis (CB), Connor Barwin (LB), Jurrell Casey (DE), Orlando Scandrick (CB)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Frank Gore (RB), Devin McCourty (S)

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Charles Sims (RB), Danny Lansanah (LB), Andre Williams (RB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (S)

Preview:

Missing out on the playoffs on the last day of the 2014 season was blow, but one the team deserved. This was the second most over-achieving team with an AWE of 6.11, nearly a full game below the actual number of wins achieved through the season. The team had only a 39% chance of winning at least 7 games and so can be considered a little lucky.

In addition, the team was closer to the bottom of the league than the top when it came to total points and potential points while team selection efficiency was pretty much bang on league average at 78.6%. All told, a lot of work was needed in the off-season to revamp this team and kick on in 2015.

The work is only partly done at QB. Matt Ryan is a fine starter and with a new coach and OC in Atlanta and a good supporting cast, he should be absolutely fine, with top 10 numbers being the minimum expectation. Johnny Fucking Football is gone, just when he looked like becoming the best QB in Cleveland. But then none of the GMs of this league are in Cleveland – if they went, the moment they touched down they’d be a strong second at the minimum. RG3 will be given a season to see if anything is salvageable, but otherwise Chatterbowl winner Joe Flacco should provide able backup.

A lot of change at RB, with steal of the century (calling Lacy a steal is a disservice to the art of thievery) Jeremy Hill coming in. The team have three teams’ backfield situations wrapped up in San Diego, Cincinnati and Arizona, and while only Cincinnati would be considered a top 10 group, there’s hope that this could be one of the stronger RB units in the DynaBowl in 2015.

Less turnover at receiver, where less work was needed. Andre Johnson has the best QB situation of his HoF-worthy career and will be looking to make hay while he can while AJ Green will be looking to bounce back from a terrible down-year. Fantasy Football is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world and Green’s value has fallen but Hendy & Smith will be looking for it to be back at the top table come December.

The team has its 2014 rookies returning… well, two out of three. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is painful but one this roster should be able to withstand. Cooks looks to be the central figure in New Orleans while Jordan Matthews should be a high volume operator in Philadelphia. Anquan Boldin is a useful back-up, while Conley and Hardy represent developing players who are unlikely to contribute much in 2015.

While the loss of Benjamin undoubtedly hurt the WR options, it only offered a boost at TE where Greg Olsen should be the biggest beneficiary. Already a top 5 TE, he could be well placed to become the third man. ASJ, Jordan Cameron Jordan and Miychaele Rivieria all offer decent depth.

Positional changes mean there’s a bit of a lack of balance at DE and DT – too many of the former and too few of the latter could lead to a few problems in selection and if Jordan Hill gets injured there could be real issues on the line, but there’s good depth at all other positions. This was one of the best defences in 2014 and will be looking to keep a seat at the top table in 2015. It’s not going to be number 1 or 2, but has a good chance of being number 3 on that list. The only problem could be how to pick the right players each week.

Verdict:

This roster has been reshaped into one of the stronger options in the league. On paper. Given the underperformance of AJ Green last year, there’s surely no chickens being counted in the Bombermen head office. But even if players perform only at the lower end of expectations, this team should be competing for playoffs. If Hill, Green, and Ryan all fire like the stars they can be and if defensive selection goes well, they could be competing for top honours.

Prediction:

7-6, playoffs on head-to-head, anything more might be asking too much. They don’t have the strength and depth of the very best teams but they stand a chance of hitting the big time. Another season over .500 is the minimum expectation.

2015 Commish Preview: DynaForOne Firebirds

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Team: DynaForOne Firebirds – Neil Hawke

2014 Record: 7-6, 10th pick, Superb Owl Champions

Significant Additions:

Draft – Diral Green-Beckham (WR), Eric Kendricks (LB), Javoris Allen (RB)

Free Agency – Jonas Gray (RB),

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Frank Gore (RB), Charles Clay (TE), DeAndre Levy (LB), Martellus Bennett (TE), Julian Edleman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Ron Parker (S), Da’Norris Searcy (S)

Significant Losses:

Retirement – Troy Polamalu (S)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Ryan Tannehill, QB), TY Hilton (WR)

Preview:

First of all, congratulations should be given to the Firebirds who were ridicuously dominant in the second half of the fantasy season, culminating in a massive score in the two-week Superb Owl contest. After the first four weeks of the season, DFO was the most consistent team and only scored below 190 points once.

In the regular season, AWE rated DFO has being worth 7.33 wins, just slightly over the 7 wins achieved, the smallest difference in the league. They had a 72% chance of reaching 7 wins, behind only the Losers and Kelkowski. They snuck into the playoffs despite losing on the last day of the regular season due to the Bombermen’s capitulation to Kelkowski, and while the Bombermen top-scored in week 14, no one can deny DFO’s playoff performance in which they ranked 2nd, 1st and 1st in scoring across the 3 weeks.

All that success was built on the offense – the defence only scored more points than the Dungeoneers and the Sadness – and so it was no surprise when Hawke moved to address this in the off-season. The question is did they give up too much in the quest for that extra defensive strength. With crazy people Russell Wilson and Philip Rivers on the roster, losing Ryan Tannehill was a good move – he was probably worth with Frank Gore or the 2.05 pick in the draft, the fact that both were received along with a couple of other pieces is exceptional business.

TY Hilton for, effectively, Alec Ogletree and a small bump up the draft is another matter. Ogletree is a very good option but the lack of consistency in defensive players scoring but it still raised some eyebrows. Now, if the drop from Hilton to Edelman is less than the gap between Ogletree and the replacement level player who would have made the roster then this has been well calculated but it’s a big risk.

Perhaps the most eyebrow raising move was the dispatching of Hill, a player who could make the leap into elite RB status in 2015, for a couple of older defensive pieces. Still the net gain across all the trades is probably fair if not an outright win.

All that said, Lynch, Anderson and Gore are an excellent running back triumvirate, while Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas are possibly the best WR combo in the league. Sanu, Royal and Edelman should all contribute and, at tight end, they have perhaps the best combination of 4 players in the league. Unfortunately they can only play two at once.

On paper the defence certainly looks stronger than last year but as mentioned in prior previews, defensive depth can be a double edged sword with variable scoring not necessarily working well with difficult starting decisions. Equally, they’ve probably just jumped up to league average.

Verdict:

More depth on defence and less on offense. For me, I’ll take the depth at the more reliable positions, but with good management this could reap some big rewards. This is a team that can beat anyone on its day but in a stronger Tim Division they will be hard pushed to repeat. Another winning record is definitely achievable but how much more is in question.

Prediction:

7-6 and missing the playoffs on head-to-head. When teams are level it’s really difficult to know who will go through. My suspicion is that this team isn’t in the top 4 teams of the year, but with the way schedules and scoring go, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t make the playoffs. I doubt they’ll be as dominant as they were in the second half of the season but will still be a strong competitor nonetheless.

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