Jeremy Hill – The DynaBowl

Team: Dynablaster Bombermen – Benjamin Hendy/Dan Smith

2014 Record: 7-6, 6^th pick, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Melvin Gordon (RB), David Johnson (RB), Chris Conley (WR), Justin Hardy (WR), Trae Waynes (CB), Shane Ray (LB)

Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB), Cameron Wake (DE), Joe Flacco (QB)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Andre Johnson (WR), Vontae Davis (CB), Connor Barwin (LB), Jurrell Casey (DE), Orlando Scandrick (CB)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Frank Gore (RB), Devin McCourty (S)

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Charles Sims (RB), Danny Lansanah (LB), Andre Williams (RB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (S)

Preview:

Missing out on the playoffs on the last day of the 2014 season was blow, but one the team deserved. This was the second most over-achieving team with an AWE of 6.11, nearly a full game below the actual number of wins achieved through the season. The team had only a 39% chance of winning at least 7 games and so can be considered a little lucky.

In addition, the team was closer to the bottom of the league than the top when it came to total points and potential points while team selection efficiency was pretty much bang on league average at 78.6%. All told, a lot of work was needed in the off-season to revamp this team and kick on in 2015.

The work is only partly done at QB. Matt Ryan is a fine starter and with a new coach and OC in Atlanta and a good supporting cast, he should be absolutely fine, with top 10 numbers being the minimum expectation. Johnny Fucking Football is gone, just when he looked like becoming the best QB in Cleveland. But then none of the GMs of this league are in Cleveland – if they went, the moment they touched down they’d be a strong second at the minimum. RG3 will be given a season to see if anything is salvageable, but otherwise Chatterbowl winner Joe Flacco should provide able backup.

A lot of change at RB, with steal of the century (calling Lacy a steal is a disservice to the art of thievery) Jeremy Hill coming in. The team have three teams’ backfield situations wrapped up in San Diego, Cincinnati and Arizona, and while only Cincinnati would be considered a top 10 group, there’s hope that this could be one of the stronger RB units in the DynaBowl in 2015.

Less turnover at receiver, where less work was needed. Andre Johnson has the best QB situation of his HoF-worthy career and will be looking to make hay while he can while AJ Green will be looking to bounce back from a terrible down-year. Fantasy Football is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world and Green’s value has fallen but Hendy & Smith will be looking for it to be back at the top table come December.

The team has its 2014 rookies returning… well, two out of three. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is painful but one this roster should be able to withstand. Cooks looks to be the central figure in New Orleans while Jordan Matthews should be a high volume operator in Philadelphia. Anquan Boldin is a useful back-up, while Conley and Hardy represent developing players who are unlikely to contribute much in 2015.

While the loss of Benjamin undoubtedly hurt the WR options, it only offered a boost at TE where Greg Olsen should be the biggest beneficiary. Already a top 5 TE, he could be well placed to become the third man. ASJ, Jordan Cameron Jordan and Miychaele Rivieria all offer decent depth.

Positional changes mean there’s a bit of a lack of balance at DE and DT – too many of the former and too few of the latter could lead to a few problems in selection and if Jordan Hill gets injured there could be real issues on the line, but there’s good depth at all other positions. This was one of the best defences in 2014 and will be looking to keep a seat at the top table in 2015. It’s not going to be number 1 or 2, but has a good chance of being number 3 on that list. The only problem could be how to pick the right players each week.

Verdict:

This roster has been reshaped into one of the stronger options in the league. On paper. Given the underperformance of AJ Green last year, there’s surely no chickens being counted in the Bombermen head office. But even if players perform only at the lower end of expectations, this team should be competing for playoffs. If Hill, Green, and Ryan all fire like the stars they can be and if defensive selection goes well, they could be competing for top honours.

Prediction:

7-6, playoffs on head-to-head, anything more might be asking too much. They don’t have the strength and depth of the very best teams but they stand a chance of hitting the big time. Another season over .500 is the minimum expectation.

Team: DynaForOne Firebirds – Neil Hawke

2014 Record: 7-6, 10^th pick, Superb Owl Champions

Significant Additions:

Draft – Diral Green-Beckham (WR), Eric Kendricks (LB), Javoris Allen (RB)

Free Agency – Jonas Gray (RB),

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Frank Gore (RB), Charles Clay (TE), DeAndre Levy (LB), Martellus Bennett (TE), Julian Edleman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Ron Parker (S), Da’Norris Searcy (S)

Significant Losses:

Retirement – Troy Polamalu (S)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Ryan Tannehill, QB), TY Hilton (WR)

Preview:

First of all, congratulations should be given to the Firebirds who were ridicuously dominant in the second half of the fantasy season, culminating in a massive score in the two-week Superb Owl contest. After the first four weeks of the season, DFO was the most consistent team and only scored below 190 points once.

In the regular season, AWE rated DFO has being worth 7.33 wins, just slightly over the 7 wins achieved, the smallest difference in the league. They had a 72% chance of reaching 7 wins, behind only the Losers and Kelkowski. They snuck into the playoffs despite losing on the last day of the regular season due to the Bombermen’s capitulation to Kelkowski, and while the Bombermen top-scored in week 14, no one can deny DFO’s playoff performance in which they ranked 2nd, 1st and 1st in scoring across the 3 weeks.

All that success was built on the offense – the defence only scored more points than the Dungeoneers and the Sadness – and so it was no surprise when Hawke moved to address this in the off-season. The question is did they give up too much in the quest for that extra defensive strength. With crazy people Russell Wilson and Philip Rivers on the roster, losing Ryan Tannehill was a good move – he was probably worth with Frank Gore or the 2.05 pick in the draft, the fact that both were received along with a couple of other pieces is exceptional business.

TY Hilton for, effectively, Alec Ogletree and a small bump up the draft is another matter. Ogletree is a very good option but the lack of consistency in defensive players scoring but it still raised some eyebrows. Now, if the drop from Hilton to Edelman is less than the gap between Ogletree and the replacement level player who would have made the roster then this has been well calculated but it’s a big risk.

Perhaps the most eyebrow raising move was the dispatching of Hill, a player who could make the leap into elite RB status in 2015, for a couple of older defensive pieces. Still the net gain across all the trades is probably fair if not an outright win.

All that said, Lynch, Anderson and Gore are an excellent running back triumvirate, while Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas are possibly the best WR combo in the league. Sanu, Royal and Edelman should all contribute and, at tight end, they have perhaps the best combination of 4 players in the league. Unfortunately they can only play two at once.

On paper the defence certainly looks stronger than last year but as mentioned in prior previews, defensive depth can be a double edged sword with variable scoring not necessarily working well with difficult starting decisions. Equally, they’ve probably just jumped up to league average.

Verdict:

More depth on defence and less on offense. For me, I’ll take the depth at the more reliable positions, but with good management this could reap some big rewards. This is a team that can beat anyone on its day but in a stronger Tim Division they will be hard pushed to repeat. Another winning record is definitely achievable but how much more is in question.

Prediction:

7-6 and missing the playoffs on head-to-head. When teams are level it’s really difficult to know who will go through. My suspicion is that this team isn’t in the top 4 teams of the year, but with the way schedules and scoring go, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t make the playoffs. I doubt they’ll be as dominant as they were in the second half of the season but will still be a strong competitor nonetheless.

2015 Commish Preview: Dynablaster Bombermen

2015 Commish Preview: DynaForOne Firebirds

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