Tag: Here Comes The Brees

Dynabowl Rookie Draft versus ADP & IDP

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Now that the dust has settled on the Rookie Draft, is it possible to determine who performed best in that draft? Maybe.  I have a go at it below.

Methodology

There are no combined Offensive Player and IDP rookie draft rankings for Dynasty leagues that I can find, so I’ve gone to Dynasty League Football’s rankings for both.

I took the Rookie ADP (Average Draft Position) rankings from June 2015 (click on Rookies tab), and the DLF IDP rankings for the defensive rookies. Then I took the Dynabowl draft and ordered it by Offensive and Defensive picks, and compared the data, providing a score based on deviation from ADP/IDP ranking.

For example, Leonard Williams was the first defensive pick in the Dynabowl, but is the 9th rated rookie by IDP, so he would garner a score of -8 for that pick (massive reach). The higher the score, the better.  This methodology has many flaws, the biggest being the range of different scoring methods for IDP leagues (the top three rookies here are Linebackers), but provides a baseline in the absence of something better.

Other flaws

This is looking at the draft in a vacuum; no trades are assessed.

Some of the players do not appear in either set of data – should owners be penalised for that? They are not penalised here.

 

DynaHarder

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.01 1 1 Gurley, Todd STL RB (R) 2 -1
2.05 15 15 Mariota, Marcus TEN QB (R) 23 -8
2.10 20 20 Cobb, David TEN RB (R) 20 0
4.01 32 27 Lockett, Tyler SEA WR (R) 27 0
4.02 33 28 Langford, Jeremy CHI RB (R) 37 -9
4.11 42 32 McBride, Tre TEN WR (R) 36 -4
5.11 55 38 Bell, Kenny TBB WR (R) 33 5
6.01 56 39 Diggs, Stefon MIN WR (R) 34 5
7.01 66 Pinion, Bradley SFO PN (R) N/A
Total             -12

 

Nothing too egregious here, a slight reach for Mariota and Langford.

 

Bombermen

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.05 5 5 Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (R) 3 2
2.08 18 18 Johnson, David ARI RB(R) 18 0
3.03 24 23 Conley, Chris KCC WR (R) 26 -3
4.06 37 31 Hardy, Justin ATL WR (R) 31 0
4.13 44 11 Waynes, Trae MIN CB (R) N/A N/A
5.09 53 16 Ray, Shane DEN LB (R) 22 -6
6.02 57 18 Jarrett, Grady ATL DT (R) N/A N/A
6.04 59 20 Flowers, Trey NEP DE (R) N/A N/A
7.06 71 26 Ringo, Christian GBP DE (R) N/A N/A
Total             -7

Bombermen suffer for going after Cornerbacks, and other ungraded IDPs. This ranking ignores the big win in seizing Gordon at #5.

 

Dungeoneers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.02 2 2 Cooper, Amari OAK WR (R) 1 1
1.03 3 3 White, Kevin CHI WR (R) 4 -1
2.11 21 21 Smith, Devin NYJ WR (R) 24 -3
4.04 35 30 Davis, Mike SFO RB (R) 28 2
5.03 47 36 Greene, Rashad JAC WR (R) 40 -4
6.03 58 19 Dawson, Paul CIN LB (R) 13 6
Total             1

 

Tamworth

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.04 4 4 Parker, DeVante MIA WR (R) 5 -1
2.02 12 12 Johnson, Duke CLE RB (R) 15 -3
3.04 25 2 Beasley, Vic ATL DE (R) 5 -3
3.05 26 24 Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR (R) 30 -6
4.03 34 29 Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB (R) 32 -3
4.09 40 9 Collins, Landon NYG S (R) 8 1
6.06 61 22 Perryman, Denzel SDC LB (R) 6 16
6.07 62 40 Williams, Karlos BUF RB (R) N/A N/A
7.03 68 44 Waller, Darren BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
Total             1

 

Tamworth are bailed out by a big IDP difference on Denzel Perryman – without that it would be much, much worse. However, none of the individual picks reach that much, so a case could be made for Tamworth knowing their man and going after him aggressively.

 

Kelkowski

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.07 7 7 Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB (R) 7 0
2.07 17 17 Funchess, Devin CAR WR (R) 16 1
3.07 28 4 Anthony, Stephone NOS LB (R) 2 2
4.07 38 7 Gregory, Randy DAL DE (R) 10 -3
5.07 51 15 Shelton, Danny CLE DT (R) N/A N/A
7.07 72 46 Montgomery, Ty GBP WR(R) 41 5
Total             5

Nothing to see here – no huge variation from the ADP, with the exception of taking the nose tackle in the 5th.

 

Firebirds

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.01 11 11 Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR (R) 8 3
3.06 27 3 Kendricks, Eric MIN LB(R) 1 2
3.10 31 26 Allen, Javorius BAL RB (R) 22 4
4.10 41 10 Edwards, Mario OAK DE (R) 14 -4
5.10 54 17 Anderson, Henry IND DE (R) 17 0
7.10 75 47 Petty, Bryce NYJ QB (R) 46 1
Total             6

Middle of the pack for the next few guys..

 

 

Brees

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.06 6 6 Coleman, Tevin ATL RB(R) 11 -5
1.10 10 10 Perriman, Breshad BAL WR (R) 9 1
2.06 16 16 Dorsett, Phillip IND WR (R) 13 3
2.09 19 19 Williams, Maxx BAL TE(R) 19 0
4.05 36 6 Thompson, Shaq CAR LB(R) 7 -1
6.09 64 41 Grayson, Garrett NOS QB (R) N/A N/A
7.09 74 28 Hicks, Jordan PHI LB (R) 20 8
Total             6

 

Champions

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.04 14 14 Ajayi, Jay MIA RB (R) 14 0
3.02 23 1 Williams, Leonard NYJ DE (R) 9 -8
3.09 30 5 Fowler, Dante JAC DE (R) 4 1
5.02 46 35 Rawls, Thomas SEA RB (R) N/A N/A
5.05 49 13 McKinney, Benardrick HOU LB (R) 3 10
6.05 60 21 Kikaha, Hau’oli NOS LB (R) 16 5
6.1 65 42 Pruitt, MyCole MIN TE (R) N/A N/A
7.05 70 25 Bennett, Michael JAC DT (R) N/A N/A
Total             8

 

Losers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.08 8 8 Agholor, Nelson PHI WR (R) 6 2
2.03 13 13 Winston, Jameis TBB QB (R) 17 -4
3.08 29 25 Coates, Sammie PIT WR (R) 25 0
4.08 39 8 Odighizuwa, Owamagbe NYG DE (R) 11 -3
5.08 52 37 Walford, Clive OAK TE (R) 35 2
6.08 63 23 Ryan, Jake GBP LB (R) 15 8
7.08 73 27 Hunter, Danielle MIN DE (R) 23 4
Total             9

No picks from outside the equivalent ranking tables, a solid draft.

 

And the winner is….

Even without considering the Lacy Trade(TM), and the various other pieces picked up in the draft, The Dynasty of Sadness is the clear winner here, with a massive 27 points.

 

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.09 9 9 Abdullah, Ameer DET RB (R) 10 -1
3.01 22 22 Strong, Jaelen HOU WR (R) 12 10
4.12 43 33 Robinson, Josh IND RB(R) 29 4
5.01 45 34 Jones, Matt WAS RB (R) 21 13
5.04 48 12 Dupree, Bud PIT LB (R) 12 0
5.06 50 14 Armstead, Arik SFO DE(R) 19 -5
7.02 67 43 Carter, DeAndre BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
7.04 69 45 Zenner, Zach DET RB (R) 39 6
Total             27

 

Big value picks like Strong and Jones, and no major reaches, means that The People’s Republic has won the draft, at least by this dubious and highly suspect methodology. Well done Geoffrey.

 

Scheduling and Relative Strength

League Business Power Rankings Stat Attacks 1 Comment

Following on from league schedule chat, I got thinking about the level of luck involved in the schedule and what the chances were of teams getting different amount of wins, considering the number of points they scored each week. It’s important to understand, of course, that just because a team scored a lot of points, it doesn’t mean they could have been consistent winners. If they scored massive amounts in just 3 weeks and at or below average the rest of the season they could look like big time Charlies when actually they were … erm … small time Freddies? Also, some weeks the entire league scored highly so a high score is merely par (weeks 8, 10 and 13 all featured average team scores of 190+), while other weeks the points were low so a high score had the chance to dominate (week 2 had an average score of only 158.7).

The point is that it definitely matters when you score those points, as well as how many of them you score.

So given I have the full weekly scoring available I decided to run some scenarios. In fact, practically every scenario. Sort of. There are some weakness which I am going to acknowledge up front.

So what I did was rank everyone’s score from first to last in the league in each week. From this you can derive the chance of winning in any given week. If you top scored you had a 100% chance of winning. If you were the 5th top scorer you had a 55.55% chance of winning (you could beat 5 teams out of 9 – 5/9 = 55.55%) and thus a 44.44% chance of losing. And so on.

By multiplying your chance of winning in week 1 by your chance of winning in week 2 and so on we can work out the chance of you winning every single game. If we create a list of all possible scenarios (ie every combination of win or lose for every week of the season), we can then work out the likelihood of each scenario. Add up all the scenarios that result in 7 wins and you have the % chance of that outcome.

The caveats:

  1. In week 10 Dyna Hard and Kelkowski had the same score. They didn’t play each other so there was no tie, but this would add a tie into the possible outcomes. This would change the number of scenarios across a 13 week season from 8,192 to 1,594,323. To avoid doing this I have knocked Dyna Hard down by 0.05 points so there’s no tie that week. This means that I slightly under-estimate Dyna Hard’s position in the end results and slightly over-estimate Kelkowski’s, but the difference is minimal.
  2. I have not done this based on feasible schedules that fit with our ‘play your division twice, the other division once’ rules. This is purely done on the basis of how many teams could you beat each week. This means that while it may say a team has a small percentage chance of winning every week or losing every week, this may not actually be the case because that may rely on playing The Sadness or Kelkowski every week.

However, what this does do is provide an analysis of relative strength across the division as well as estimate the role schedule luck played in each team’s performance.

So first off I want to walk you through an example. East Flanders had a 0.13% chance of losing all 13 games in the season. The table below shows the ranking of each weekly points score for the team, the chance of losing in that individual week, and the cumulative chance of losing each week, one after the other:

Score Rank Chance of Losing Cumulative Chance of Losing
Week 1 6 55.56% 55.56%
Week 2 4 33.33% 18.52%
Week 3 10 100.00% 18.52%
Week 4 8 77.78% 14.40%
Week 5 8 77.78% 11.20%
Week 6 7 66.67% 7.47%
Week 7 10 100.00% 7.47%
Week 8 8 77.78% 5.81%
Week 9 9 88.89% 5.16%
Week 10 7 66.67% 3.44%
Week 11 8 77.78% 2.68%
Week 12 2 11.11% 0.30%
Week 13 5 44.44% 0.13%

A decent start and end to the season didn’t cover up a pretty terrible middle.

So doing this for every win/loss combination for every team gives the following table of likely win totals:

Win Expectancy 1

The figures highlighted in bold are the percentage chance the team had of recording the number of victories they actually did record. So Champions of the Sun ended up with 6 wins and there was a 24.75% chance of that happening based on their weekly scores (accepting the caveats listed earlier), while Dyna Hard had just a 9.86% likelihood of getting exactly 5 wins, as they managed across the year.

So for all bar two teams, the chances of ending with the record they ended with was between 22.52% and 29.19%, though only 3 teams ended with the record they were most likely to.

So the next stage is to look at the cumulative win chances – ie adding the percentage chances up as you move along. So each column in the table below shows the chances of winning between zero and n games (n being the number at the top of the column).

Win Expectancy 2

What this is saying is that the higher the cumulative number the luckier you would need to be to get that number of victories, while approximately 50% is where you would expect to be. So in 95.54% of scenarios Here Comes The Brees would win 8 or fewer games and only in 4.46% of scenarios would they win over 8 games. As we can see, there was only a 13.60% chance that Dyna Hard would win 5 or fewer games.

We can also reverse this and produce a table which shows the chances of reaching a minimum number of wins:

Win Expectancy 3

This shows that The Brees had only a 14.66% chance of getting at least the 8 wins they managed, while Dyna Hard were as close to guaranteed as you could reasonably expect to get to hit the 5 wins they did, with over a 96% chance of reaching that level. The Dynasty of Sadness were the second luckiest franchise, with only a 35% chance of getting 5 wins, although they had a better chance of getting 4 wins than East Flanders, while the Champions of the Sun were very lunlucky to register just 6 wins.

So what can we do with all this data? Well, we can use it to create an expected win number. By looking at where the 50% position falls in the above 2 cumulative tables and taking the average of the 2 positions we can see the expected number of wins for each team based on their performance.

Team Expected Wins Exp. Win Rank Actual Wins Diff. % Difference
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 8.59 1 8 -0.59 -4.52%
Dynasore Losers 8.34 2 8 -0.34 -2.61%
DynaForOne Firebirds 7.33 3 7 -0.33 -2.50%
Dyna Hard 7.12 4 5 -2.12 -16.27%
Champions of the Sun 6.89 5 6 -0.89 -6.88%
Tamworth Two 6.43 6 6 -0.43 -3.34%
Dynablaster Bombermen 6.11 7 7 0.89 6.88%
Here Comes The Brees 5.88 8 8 2.12 16.30%
East Flanders Dungeoneers 4.18 9 5 0.82 6.31%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.12 10 5 0.88 6.74%

So most teams were within 1 win of where they would be expected to end up, but Dyna Hard and Here Come The Brees were both over 2 wins difference from what their week to week performance merited.

All told I am pleasantly surprised at how little difference the schedule made for most people. This may be a case of there being so few games it’s harder to separate from the mean, but then again, 20% of the league – a not insignificant proportion – were over 2 games different from their expected level.

What can be said at this point is that we don’t really know if this is a problem or not. Will there always be teams who get very lucky or unlucky or was 2014 an anomaly? Should we look to provide a degree of stabilisation to try to get the best performing teams over the course of the season into the playoffs? Or should we embrace randomness?

Kommish Komment Korner (again)

The fact that the match-ups, in a randomly assigned order, can make a large difference to the outcome of the season – something beyond the control of the GM – seems an unfair punishment (or reward) and if something can be done that removes an element of that, while maintaining the excitement of head-to-head match-ups, my view is it should be included.

What we have is not broken, but there are a few cracks in the facade and it would be nice to address those so that we have a league which is both fun and robust. The magic of the cup will remain, regardless, in the playoff stage. What the regular season should at least try to do is ensure that the best teams end up in the playoffs while the worst teams get the best picks in the draft in order to better themselves and make themselves more competitive. In 2014 the playoffs were 3/4 right in that regard, but it’s not as though the 4th part of that equation was a borderline case. Had Dyna Hard come 5th, just behind Champions of the Sun, the issue wouldn’t have been a talking point (and I realise I am the only one talking about it really so you may not consider it one anyway). But I think it is tough to argue that Dyna Hard merit the first pick of the draft ahead of DoS and East Flanders.

I’m not suggesting a revolution, I’m suggesting evolution. The league is one year old and we knew we wouldn’t get things right the first time. We need to adapt to make the league as good and as fair as possible. I don’t want playoffs to be decided based on all-play or total points or anything. We all put in a lot of time and effort and it is better that we have a system that rewards that time and effort and, where appropriate, skill as best as possible.

This won’t change for 2015 and the above analysis will be repeated after the 2015 season to see how different the league was from actual performance. There will then be a vote sometime in the new year about whether we should change the schedule and/or ranking system for teams. Cases will be made and, whatever the outcome, we will move forward, older and allegedly wiser.

Alternative Uptown Top Ranking the 2014 Season

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Some of you may remember that at the end of the last season of the DynaBowl, when tallying up wins and losses and working out the draft order there was some ‘heated’ debate. I forget who was involved or exactly what the outcome was, aside from Dyna Hard, the 4th top scorers in the league in 2014, getting the first pick in the draft.

Anyway, it got me thinking. Firstly, how did a possible perception of unfairness occur and secondly is there anything that could be done to rectify this?

So, one of the quirks with Fantasy Football is how short the season is and how few games are played in a typical, traditional season. 13 games is not very many. It’s less than are played in the NFL, let alone football, basketball, ice hockey or let alone baseball. As such, it’s really difficult to use the season as a marker of true quality.

This is often noted in NFL, but at least in the NFL your opponent on any given weekend (or Thursday night. Or Monday night) has an impact on how you play your game. In fantasy football it would theoretically be possible to be the second highest scorer every single week and not win a game. Or be the second lowest scorer every week and win every game. Obviously the chances are ludicrously small, but it is just about possible. Therefore a win/loss record doesn’t necessarily reflect the strength of the teams.

Extrapolating from this, not only does it mean that the order the picks are made in could be compromised, but so too could the teams making the playoffs. In theory the best 4 teams should make the playoffs, but in 2014 The Brees made the playoffs despite scoring more regular season points than only 2 teams. Again, this isn’t like the NFL (or the Premier League) where a low scoring team can be successful by having a really good defence. A low scoring team has no control over whether they get beaten or not – it’s entirely based on luck.

In a venture like the ChatterBowl this is less of an issue (to me, at any rate), but the DynaBowl is a comparatively serious endeavour, given the time spent assessing rookies for the draft, assessing the value of contracts, managing the cap etc and so on. Given the time spent on managing teams, shouldn’t we work to reward the best teams rather than leaving it up to luck?

Of course, luck will always be present (as will Luck, the unbreakable man). This can be in the form of a defensive player getting 3 of his 5 sacks in one week or a 90 yard pick 6, or it can be that your opponent loses his bets 3 players to a bye the week you play him. I’m not saying we completely eliminate luck – we couldn’t.

What I am saying is that we should look to ways to reduce it so that the best teams are rewarded and the worst teams get the chance to pick from the new players before everyone else.

“But wait!” I hear you cry, “How much does the schedule really affect the standings?”

With our schedule in 2014, every team ended up with 5, 6, 7 or 8 wins. But complete fluke we were really bunched together. With a random re-arrangement of the fixtures, ensuring that no one played the same team in the same week they had before (so every fixture was new), the first variation I have produced the following results:

Team Wins Losses
Dyna Hard 11 2
Dynasore Losers 10 3
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 9 4
Tamworth Two 7 6
DynaForOne Firebirds 6 7
Dynablaster Bombermen 5 8
Champions of the Sun 5 8
East Flanders Dungeoneers 4 9
Here Comes The Brees 4 9
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4 9

I promise this was complete fluke that the worst team in 2014 ended up on top with this schedule and The Brees came in second from bottom.

Under this scenario our 2014 champions, DynaForOne Firebirds, didn’t make the cut for the playoffs.

The point of this is merely to say that schedule plays a massive part of success and perhaps we should look to remove that element as best we can.

I’m not saying we should just work on total points or anything like that. We all like the weekly competition. But there may be other options that operate as halfway houses, which are just as fun but more representative. Specifically two other options (with further variations thereon).

OPTION 1 – DOUBLE HEADERS

This is pretty simple. Everyone plays two fixtures a week. That’s it. It just doubles the number of games per season giving you a better chance of producing a record that is more representative of a team’s talent.

So I had the original schedule and the schedule used to create the above standings. Using those templates I just rearranged the order of the teams (so if, in week 1 team 1 played team 2 etc, I just changed who team 1 was and who team 2 was (etc and so on), which then created effectively a new schedule. I then created tables for how the season would have gone with the new double fixture lists. There are several versions to demonstrate how different results would have been, each of which is reproduced  below for illustrative purposes and because I have no limit on space. The first of these tables uses the original schedule and the revised one produced above as the two schedules (I used total points, not head to head, as a tie-breaker, for simplicity):

Team Total Points Wins with  schedule 1 Wins with  schedule 2 Total Wins Total Losses
Dynasore Losers 2478.93 8 10 18 8
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2494.355 8 9 17 9
Dyna Hard 2396.135 5 11 16 10
DynaForOne Firebirds 2397.8 7 6 13 13
Tamworth Two 2388.085 6 7 13 13
Dynablaster Bombermen 2297.19 7 5 12 14
Here Comes The Brees 2258.885 8 4 12 14
Champions of the Sun 2392.665 6 5 11 15
East Flanders Dungeoneers 2138.915 5 4 9 17
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 2008.795 5 4 9 17

 

Team Total Points Wins with  schedule 1 Wins with  schedule 2 Total Wins Total Losses
Dynasore Losers 2478.93 9 10 19 7
Champions of the Sun 2392.665 7 9 16 10
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2494.355 8 7 15 11
DynaForOne Firebirds 2397.8 8 7 15 11
Tamworth Two 2388.085 5 8 13 13
Dynablaster Bombermen 2297.19 6 7 13 13
Here Comes The Brees 2258.885 7 5 12 14
East Flanders Dungeoneers 2138.915 5 5 10 16
Dyna Hard 2396.135 6 3 9 17
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 2008.795 4 4 8 18

 

Team Total Points Wins with  schedule 1 Wins with  schedule 2 Total Wins Total Losses
Dynasore Losers 2478.93 9 8 17 9
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2494.355 7.5 9 16.5 9.5
DynaForOne Firebirds 2397.8 7 9 16 10
Dyna Hard 2396.135 7.5 7 14.5 11.5
Dynablaster Bombermen 2297.19 7 7 14 12
Champions of the Sun 2392.665 7 5 12 14
Tamworth Two 2388.085 6 6 12 14
Here Comes The Brees 2258.885 5 5 10 16
East Flanders Dungeoneers 2138.915 5 4 9 17
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 2008.795 4 5 9 17

 

Team Total Points Wins with  schedule 1 Wins with  schedule 2 Total Wins Total Losses
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2494.355 10 9 19 7
Dynasore Losers 2478.93 8 9 17 9
DynaForOne Firebirds 2397.8 6 9 15 11
Dynablaster Bombermen 2297.19 7 8 15 11
Here Comes The Brees 2258.885 9 6 15 11
Tamworth Two 2388.085 5 7 12 14
Champions of the Sun 2392.665 6 5 11 15
Dyna Hard 2396.135 6 3 9 17
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 2008.795 4 5 9 17
East Flanders Dungeoneers 2138.915 4 4 8 18

 

Team Total Points Wins with  schedule 1 Wins with  schedule 2 Total Wins Total Losses
Dynasore Losers 2478.93 11 8 19 7
Dyna Hard 2396.135 6 10 16 10
Tamworth Two 2388.085 7 9 16 10
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2494.355 8 7 15 11
Champions of the Sun 2392.665 7 8 15 11
DynaForOne Firebirds 2397.8 7 6 13 13
Here Comes The Brees 2258.885 7 5 12 14
Dynablaster Bombermen 2297.19 6 4 10 16
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 2008.795 5 4 9 17
East Flanders Dungeoneers 2138.915 1 4 5 21

 

Team Total Points Wins with  schedule 1 Wins with  schedule 2 Total Wins Total Losses
Dynasore Losers 2478.93 8 10 18 8
DynaForOne Firebirds 2397.8 8 8 16 10
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 2494.355 8.5 7 15.5 10.5
Here Comes The Brees 2258.885 7 8 15 11
Dyna Hard 2396.135 8.5 6 14.5 11.5
Tamworth Two 2388.085 7 6 13 13
Champions of the Sun 2392.665 6 6 12 14
Dynablaster Bombermen 2297.19 5 7 12 14
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 2008.795 3 5 8 18
East Flanders Dungeoneers 2138.915 4 2 6 20

So with this method we end up with more match-ups and more rivalries, but there’s a risk that too many games are happening at once and we lose a bit of focus. It could be more fun or it could be confusing and, frankly, I don’t think we’d know until we did it.

OPTION 2 – VICTORY POINTS

So, under this scenario, each team would get 2 points for a win and 1 for a tie, rather than the traditional W/L result, but what we add in is 2 further points for the top 3 scoring teams in the week, 1 point for the 4 teams that score in the middle and 0 points for the 3 lowest scoring teams. This way, if you are the second top scoring team in a week, and you lose to the top scoring team, all is not lost! You still get 2 points towards your playoff push.

Want examples? Why sure. In week 1 of the 2014 season, the top scoring team beat the 4th top scoring team while the 2nd top scoring team beat the 3rd top scoring team. So under the victory point scenario, Dynablaster Bombermen would have scored 1 point despite the loss and Dyna Hard 2 points, despite their loss.

What would last season’s table have looked like?

Team Victory Points Scoring Points Total Points
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 16 18 34
Dynasore Losers 16 17 33
DynaForOne Firebirds 14 15 29
Here Comes The Brees 16 12 28
Dynablaster Bombermen 14 12 26
Champions of the Sun 12 14 26
Tamworth Two 12 13 25
Dyna Hard 10 14 24
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 10 8 18
East Flanders Dungeoneers 10 7 17

Less of an impact – the same 4 teams in the playoffs and a little shuffling lower down, but I think you’d agree that it is a slightly more fair representation of the quality of teams.

The advantage is that even if you’re clearly beaten or going up against a team that is much stronger you still have something to cheer and getting a few more points in your Monday night game could give you an extra point and push you a step closer to the playoffs.

OPTION 3 (?!?) – COMBINED DOUBLE HEADERS AND VICTORY POINTS!

Using the first double header table to construct a double header and victory points table, we get the following:

Team Total Wins Total Losses Victory Points Scoring Points Total Points
Dynasore Losers 18 8 36 17 53
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 17 9 34 18 52
Dyna Hard 16 10 32 14 46
DynaForOne Firebirds 13 13 26 15 41
Tamworth Two 13 13 26 13 39
Champions of the Sun 11 15 22 14 36
Dynablaster Bombermen 12 14 24 12 36
Here Comes The Brees 12 14 24 12 36
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 9 17 18 8 26
East Flanders Dungeoneers 9 17 18 7 25

 

 

Mock Draft 3.1 – Maxwell takes it to the house by mocking rounds 3 & 4

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Taking as his starting point James ‘Goody’ Goodson’s first 2 rounds of mock draft, Max Cubberley, erstwhile GM of the Champions of the Sun franchise has taken it upon himself to continue the simulation and mock draft rounds 3 & 4. So without further ado, let us begin…

3.01 – Dynahard – Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN)
With two premium skill position players in the bag already Dynahard may find the value of Marcus Mariota too much to pass at the top of the third round. Although Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning between them should be able to put up a decent season next year it would be a boon to have a QB with more consistency to slot in at the top of the roster and Mariota may become that in time.

3.02 – 4th Dynmension of Sadness – Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA)
How many running backs do the Dynasty of Sadness need to draft? How many do you have? Despite health concerns, Ajayi is the most talented skill position player left at this point who can make an immediate impact. This should be a no-brainer, particularly with Lamar Miller entering a contract year.

3.03 – Here Comes The Brees – Vic Beasley (DE – ATL)
With needs all over the shop at the Brees it may seem odd to go with back-to-back picks at defensive end after taking Dante Fowler Jr. in the 2nd but you need to play 2 DEs in this league and the Brees didn’t have 1 that cracked 100 points last year. Sure, maybe Michael Bennett had a down year and Fletcher Cox is still improving but I’d want a piece of that Dan Quinn defence if I was the Brees.

3.04 – The Tamworth Two – Hau’oli Kikoha (LB – NOS)
The Tamworth Two have a pretty strong roster with Amari Copper and David Cobb already adding talent and depth to the skill positions in round 1. The glaring hole is at LB and while it may seem strange to take Kikoha with the likes of Dupree, Kendricks and Anthony (all drafted above him) on the board, Kikoha is the most pro-ready pass rusher in the class and one who can make an immediate impact in New Orleans.

3.05 – Champions of the Sun – Philip Dorsett (WR – IND)
With both of Smokin’ Jay Cutler’s potential replacements off the board by this time, the Champions need to look to other needs. Although they could use more running back help, the number of backs taken so far has left that field lagging behind the receiver talent. For that reason it becomes a case of taking the best on the board. The Colts have to pay Andrew Luck soon and there’s a good chance they let TY Hilton walk at the end of the season. If that happens Philip Dorsett could become a top target for one of the top QBs in the league.

3.06 – DynaForOne Firebirds – Eric Kendricks (LB – MIN)
The Firebirds love to hit the field with a pair of beastly DTs up front and with the recruitment of Leonard Williams in the first round they can certainly do that. Looking at the rest of the roster shows a need at running back and linebacker. With the running back well looking a little dry, it’s time to bolster the defence further and Eric Kendricks goes here. A combination of his natural ability and the chance to join a Mike Zimmer defence means that Kendricks could be an absolute tackle machine in Minnesota and a steady weekly scorer for the ‘Birds.

3.07 – KDPBNDR – Malcolm Brown (DT – NEP)
Relying on Jay Ratliff for your production at defensive tackle is not a good place to be in. Although the big guy produced last season it’s an obvious depth-need for the Rules. The two most-likely contributors have already gone and taking a run-stuffer like Malcolm Brown is a little risky but with Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Dominique Easley causing trouble around him he should be able to get penetration into the backfield and make some nice tackles for loss and even a couple of sacks. He has the potential to be beast at the heart of a good defence for years to come.

3.08 – Dynasore Losers – Jeremy Langford (RB – CHI)
Duke Johnson addresses the lack of RB depth at the Losers to some extent but it’s an obvious problem that you can’t really throw enough solutions at. There are a few options on the board here but Jeremy Langford is the stand-out for the Losers, being both an explosive talent and also at least a partial handcuff for Matt Forte if he goes down.

3.09 – Here Comes The Brees – Devin Smith (WR – NYJ)
With the defensive ends taken care of and a plug-and-play running back it’s time to address those holes at wide receiver. Whilst there may be some choices out there that could make a more immediate impact than Devin Smith, the Jets’ new deep threat has big play potential and could easily move alongside Eric Decker at the head of the depth chart by the end of the year with Brandon Marshall’s age and health concerns. It’s an upside pick but the payoff could be worth the gamble.

3.10 – DynaForOne Firebirds – Landon Collins (S – NYG)
This is the only defensive back you’ll see me suggesting taking in this mock report. To be honest, I didn’t even do much research into them, I have no intention of drafting any. What I do know though is that Landon Collins is a big, fast, aggressive safety who’s gone to a team where I could probably get a game at safety. He should be a day 1 starter for the Giants and could be a top 20 fantasy safety in his first season easily.

4.01 – Dynahard – Jeff Heuerman (TE – DEN)
This draft class is very shallow for tight ends but Dynahard are in some pretty dire straits with their current situation at the position. With Maxx Williams off the board already, Jeff Heuerman is the only prospect worth looking at left but could be a great pickup. He comes into a great offence in Denver, one that’s just lost its starting TE. He is in a good position to buck the usual trend of tight ends not performing in their first season and his full stud potential.

4.02 – 4th Dynmension of Sadness – Randy Gregory (DE – DAL)
Having taken nearly every running back available in the draft already it’s time for a change, although not that much of one. The defensive line is a position of great need for the Sadness and there is better value at end than at tackle here. Randy Gregory has some character questions but all the talent in the world and will enjoy working with Rod Marinelli in Dallas. Plus the Sadness love a Cowboy.

4.03 – East Flanders Dungeoneers – Jaelen Strong (WR – HOU)
Welcome to the later rounds, Dungeoneers! Even with Kevin White already on-board the Flanders crew need more help at WR and Jaelen Strong figures to make an immediate impact in Houston playing across from De’Andre Hopkins. The ceiling on Strong may be a bit lower than some but he’s a nice bridging piece, particularly in the 4th round.

4.04 – Tamworth Two – Bud Dupree (LB – PIT)
At this point the Tamworth Two’s biggest need is safety but, as mentioned above, I don’t see another safety in the draft that’s worth passing on a prospect at a more stable position. With that in mind the Two take Bud Dupree here. Between him and Kikaha in the round before there should be at least one good fantasy pass rusher going forward, even if Dupree doesn’t figure to make as much immediate impact in Pittsburgh.

4.05 – Here Comes the Brees – Devin Funchess (WR – CAR)
Synergy is a glorious thing so why not take a pair of Devins back-to-back? The Brees need all the help they can get at WR as fast as possible so, with that in mind, Funchess comes off the board here. If Devin Smith has a high ceiling but a low floor for the season ahead, Funchess is the opposite. He may not have the upside of Smith but he comes into a team with a good QB who need help at receiver. With Kelvin Benjamin taking the strongest corner on the defence, Funchess may be able to bully his match up and leave the season with a good few scores.

4.06 – Dynablaster Bombermen – Stephone Anthony (LB – NOS)
After sleeping in and missing round 3 due to their feasting in the first two rounds, the Bombermen finally join the party again midway through the 4th. One of the favourites for the season to come, the Bombermen have already addressed a lot of issues in the first two rounds and can afford to look at the best players left on the board. Stephone Anthony answers a slight need at linebacker and figures to be an integral part of the Saints offence from week 1, racking up tackles.

4.07 – KDPBNDR – Chris Conley (WR – KCC)
Taking a Kansas City wide receiver as famous for his home-made Star Wars movie as his ball skills is just the type of maverick move we’d expect from Kelkowski. Conley has some questions over his hands and his productivity in college but has great size and blazing speed to do damage after the catch from Alex Smith’s noodley 5 yard slants. You don’t like taking any Kansas receiver but Conley is going straight into competition for a starting spot opposite Maclin and is worth a gamble.

4.08 – Dynasore Losers – Michael Bennett (DT – JAC)
Have I lost my mind? A defensive tackle drafted in the 6th round of the real draft taken in the 4th?! A defensive tackle drafted by the Jags no less?! Maybe it’s just me but I love the skills and the fit for Bennett in Jacksonville. Gus Bradley gets a hell of a rush from his guys and Bennett figures to be a dangerous interior pass rusher, which is what you want from your fantasy tackle position. Sure, maybe there’s a reason he slipped down the board but there’s also a chance you’ve got the closest thing this year’s draft has to Aaron Donald.

4.09 – Champions of the Sun – Javorius Allen (RB – BAL)
In a year that’s weak on exciting names, Javorius Allen is a solid effort. More than that he comes into a strong Baltimore running game with a far from certain future. Allen is unlikely to get ahead of Justin Forsett this season, barring injury, but at this point in the draft taking more depth at RB is the obvious choice for the Champions and Allen is the last RB left on the board that has significant upside.

4.10 – DynaForOne Firebirds – Nate Orchard (DE – CLE)
The Firebirds need no help on offence and having taken a tackle, a linebacker and a safety so far it’s time to look at defensive end. It was a tough call here between Orchard and Preston Smith in Washington. Either would be a good pick but the Browns are needier on the line so I think Orchard will see more immediate impact.

4.11 – Dynahard – Justin Hardy (WR – ATL)
For the first of our supplemental picks Dynahard pick up a player that has flown under the radar of many. Sure, Roddy White and Julio Jones are ahead of Hardy on the depth chart but he figures to work his way into the starting position at the slot on a pass-happy offence. Hardy’s a tough runner with good routes and hands. He’s unlikely to ever be a fantasy stud but he could be a solid WR3 for a good number of years and there’s value in that too.

4.12 – 4th Dynmension of Sadness – Bernardrick McKinney (LB – HOU)
No, you’re not hallucinating. It took until a supplemental pick in the 4th round but the Sadness have taken a player that isn’t a running back or a defensive end. McKinney walks into a Texans team desperate for help at ILB. The knock on him is that he may be no more than two-down run-stopping bruiser due to weak coverage skills but if you look down the list of interior linebackers that’s a common concern. McKinney has the best position of the other options, playing for a good defence.

4.13 – Dynablaster Bombermen – Lorenzo Maudlin (LB – NYJ)
Bringing up the rear it’s the Bombermen, picking up another linebacker to help out. There’s no science to this, Maudlin is the best choice left on the board. The Jets are going to be blitzing until the cows come home this season and they have no outside pass rushers to speak of. Maudlin is their answer to that problem and there’s a chance he turns into a sack beast over the next few seasons in a Todd Bowles defence. His talent ceiling may not be up to it, time will tell, but I like the possibilities.

Mock Draft 3.0 – James ‘Goody’ Goodson of the Tamworth Two

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1.1 Dynahard pick Todd Gurley.

Dynahard’s draft will most likely be focused on improving depth initially at RB and then WR to compliment Antonio Brown. An ageing Jamaal Charles on a hefty salary, will be compensated by going for the next best dynasty RB in Gurley. You may not see the early production with his torn ACL and where he’s landed meaning splitting carries, but Gurley will be a long term pick and provide franchise value in a position that is often a lottery. Dynahard may also go with Gordon to get his early level production, however, slightly lower on long term value, I see Gurley as much more complementary to having Charles on the roster.

1.2 Dynasty of Sadness pick Melvin Gordon

The Sadness have 2 studs at WR, with very little need in this position over the next couple of years, as long as they stay healthy. This makes their pick relatively straight forward with Gordon filling a need as The Sadness have no RB1 on their books.

1.3 Dungeoneers chose Kevin White

EFD have little depth at RB or WR so it wouldn’t be unusual to see them freeing up some salary space and trading up in the top 15 picks for some potential studs. They’ll need someone with a high ceiling and not many players have that combined with a landing spot as good as White. I wouldn’t be surprised to see EFD try to trade up to snag Gordon or Gurley based on the depth on offer at WR.

1.4 Tamworth Two pick Amari Cooper

While the main need for the TT is at punter or kicker, choosing this position on the 4th pick may arguably be considered reaching by some. Strengthening at RB during free agency with Stewart provides a little cushion in this position. TT would probably be happy at this stage with Cooper, although would also be derided with him making 3 Oakland receivers being on their books.

1.5 Here Comes the Brees pick Tevin Coleman

Relatively controversial, the Brees lack an elite option at both RB and WR, and were most affected by the draft with Brees’ players falling down the depth charts. Most notably, the Rams option on Gurley to share carries with Tre Mason and Falcons picking Coleman, resulted in two fantasy RB1s rapidly turn in to RB2s Gurley would have gone by now, so logically, to make the most of their situation, Coleman offers a safer pick and guarantees Brees get the majority of the points from the Falcons running game. Another option here, could be DGB who undoubtedly offer a higher long term ceiling. Unfortunately that’s a far higher risk for the 5th pick. I doubt they’ll trust TJ Yeldon at Jacksonville, as although a 3 down back, the blocking scheme there isn’t as proven. Don’t be surprised again to see Brees trade up if Gurley or Gordon are available.

1.6 Bombermen choose Breshad Perriman

The Bombermen have done an excellent job of using cap room to fill significant weaknesses across the board, resulting in their roster being misleadingly better then their draft pick suggests. At this stage, they may not be after top talent but the attractiveness of Perriman’s landing spot at the Ravens may be too hard to pass over. While trading down is a legitimate option for them, a Torrey Smith replacement and possible WR1 is a relative no brainer. Combined with the potential to pair with Flacco on their roster, his deep ball threat and Perriman’s ability to stretch the field, this could result in a some big fantasy weeks.

1.7 KDPBNDR choose Nelson Agholor

Apart from having an awful team name KDPBNDRs also struggle with some negative impact from the draft across their roster. The move of Maclin to Kansas seriously curtails his fantasy value, with his deep threat off set by Alex Smith’ inability to throw more than 7 yards. Agholor fills this need and could be a steal at 7 considering his upside and relative early points potential in Chip Kelly’s offence. The Eagles lose and gain a deep level threat and KDPBNDRs should seek to take advantage.

While a RB may be on the cards too due to the movement of Matthews and Murray to the Eagles, they still have depth at this position, especially as Zac Stacy’s value increases now he is at the Jets.

Winston and Mariota may fill a long term need at QB but questions on Winston’s character, and Mariota’s lack of experience in a pro style offence and his fit at Titans mean too much risk is with them for a first round pick.

1.8 The Losers pick Dorial Green-Beckham

A contentious pick because the Losers have a serious dearth of RB talent, however, D Slatz gushing of the big receiver can’t go unheard and I am sure he will look for a player like David Cobb from a deep RB class, in round 2 to fulfil his RB needs. DGB will be a high risk/reward feature and goes straight in to being a WR1 on the Titans roster. It may not be the most straight forward pick but negates some future issues with Larry Fitzgerald being on the roster for only 1 more season. I doubt TJ Yeldon will be available at 2.8 and DGB will be too good to turn down here.

1.9 Champions of the Sun choose TJ Yeldon

This pick is motivated by the Vikings decision to retain Adrian Peterson and the Browns drafting yet another RB early on. The roster remains relatively strong with some nice depth on defence but as much as the 2015 RB class is a deep one, it doesn’t cover the fact that Yeldon lands as a 3 down back in a Jags offence that possesses a more varied attack and an experienced QB than before. This will adequately cover the loss of points. While Duke Johnson could be an option with the , you would really have to be glutton for punishment to suggest he will outscore Yeldon and rely on the entire Brown’s run game to get you to the next level of Dynasty football.

1.10 Firebirds choose Leonard Williams

I was tempted to go with Ameer Abdullah but the real value in round 1 dynasty picks lies with players you know will produce for the entire length of their contract considering they are 3 or 4 year commitments. While Abdullah was the third best RB on many experts boards, according to pro football focus’ analysis, he’s one of the worst blockers so he’ll be splitting carries with Joique Bell until he improves.

Williams will improve on the already adequate DE cover in the roster but will provide an immediate upgrade in production and long term stability in that position over his contract. This pick won’t be as glamorous as the rest but we will see the Champions improve on an already good roster.

2.1 Dynahard choose Devante Parker.

Overlooking the pressing need to fill the DT position, Dynahard go for the best long term offensive position still on the board and will gladly snap him up. A lot of talk suggests Parker will initially be the WR4 on Miami’s books with Landry (slot), Jennings and Stills all ahead of him on the depth chart. This is not to say he won’t end up being a WR1 one day, even 10 games in, especially with an ageing Jennings. But with Tannehill’s dubious deep threat skills (highlighted by Wallace’s frustrating season last year) and a playbook in the redzone more suited to slot receivers (such as Landry’s target count) there are doubts on whether Parker’s high draft pedigree reflects his fantasy potential. Dynahard should snap this pick up.

2.2 The Sadness choose Ameer Abdullah

Trent Richardson is as useful as a chocolate fireguard so expect the sadness to take advantage of the deep RB class and their poor depth in that position. Abdullah may split carries with Joique Bell, but he is on The Sadness’ roster making this a smart handcuff. They’ll be able to make the most out of the decisions with who will get the majority of the carries in the Lions’ backfield making this a low risk option in a position offset by insecurities. It may be a risk to hedge your bets, but replacing Reggie Bush’s touches will see a nice upside in Detroit, plus none of the other available RBs (Cobb, Ajayi, both Johnsons) offer as much upside as Abdullah, with the handcuff potential.

2.3 The Dungeoneers pick Jamais Winston.

The first QB pick off the board goes to the team with the highest risk at the position. Brees, one of the most reliable in the league now sees his main weapon and red zone threat gone, with more emphasis and investment in the Saints running game. Foles won’t have the same available receiver group in St Louis, who will be setting their game around their newly acquired RB. I choose Winston over Mariota based on his pro ready collegiate career over the Titans signalcaller. Mike Evans is a top 16 receiver, and even if he suffers a sophomore slump, V Jacks is still there.

2.4 Tamworth Two choose David Cobb

Resisting the urge to choose a punter, the TT stupidly choose to balance things out with an RB. I’m convinced that David Johnson, Duke Johnson and Jay Ajayi offer much more upside. Duke falls in a Brown’s that just don’t know when to stop running. Ajayi was ranked as a top RB prior to some knee concerns. And David looks set to be a feature back at the Cardinals, a team who often split loads with Ellington. It may be a lower risk, but with some RB depth, TT may see this as a sensible pick.

2.5 The Sadness pick Shane Ray

Another pick for the Sadness sees them improve their terrible DE depth. Ray is a sensible pick in a dynamic Broncos defense. With attention on their other pass rushers and line backers, Ray may see a productive start, assuming he gets over any turf toe injury.

2.6 The Bombermen choose Danny Shelton.

The acquisition of Cameron Wake in FA helped stop a gap for a year or two and cover one of the two largest flaws in the Bombermen’s roster. Danny Shelton, the highest ranked DT will immediately slot in a Brown’s defence who were ranked 32nd last year against the run. He’ll have plenty of opportunity to rack up tackles in Cleveland.

2.7 KDPBNDR choose Maxx Williams

Lacking any significant tight end, KDPBNDR nab the top ranked TE in a relatively shallow class. Notoriously low scorers in their first seasons as the rookie TEs get to grips with both the throwing game and the blocking responsibilities, Williams could be a massive risk, however, in a relative strong roster it may be worth taking, especially if they can acquire more experienced TE at a later date to cover the immediate season.

2.8 The Losers pick Duke Johnson.

Again, the RBs in this tier appear to be evenly spread, but Duke will enter a offence set up for the run rather than the pass. His Florida college, have a great reputation in producing pro ready RBs so don’t be surprised if the rookie ousts Crowell and West (who both offered less than 4ypc) to be their feature back. Johnson will the choice of DGB previously picked.

2.9 Here Comes the Brees pick Dante Fowler Junior.

While it’s tempting to take a shot at another WR, Brees don’t have an elite option as an edge rusher. Fowler slots in nicely.

2.10 The Bombermen chose David Johnson.

To take advantage of having Ellington, the Bombermen conveniently pick up Johnson. Although they don’t need another RB, or any other position for that matter, taking a gamble on a deep WR class is a gamble worth taking.

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