Tag: Here Comes The Brees

The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through. This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.

Reality Bites

Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.

	2014 Week 2	2014 Standing	2015 Week 2	POA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds	1-1 (137 poa)	7-6	1-1 (181 poa)	+44
Here Comes the Brees	1-1 (146 poa)	8-5	0-2 (152 poa)	+6
Dynasore Losers	2-0 (175 poa)	8-5	2-0 (172 poa)	-3
Kelkowski	2-0 (212 poa)	8-5	0-2 (153 poa)	-59
Dynablinker Obamamen	0-2 (168 poa)	7-6	0-2 (156 poa)	-12
Champions of the Sun	1-1 (181 poa)	6-7	2-0 (192 poa)	+11
Tamworth Two	2-0 (185 poa)	6-7	1-1 (167 poa)	-18
East Flanders Dungeoneers	1-1 (161 poa)	5-8	2-0 (158 poa)	-3
Dynasty of Sadness	0-2 (129 poa)	5-8	0-2 (154 poa)	+25
DynaHarder	0-2 (168 poa)	5-8	2-0 (223 poa)	+55

So let’s get the good news out of the way. DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process. The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.

The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3^rd highest score in week 1.

On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.

What Might Have Been

Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.

	2014 Week 2	2015 Week 2	PPOA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds	188 ppoa	228 (79% eff)	+40
Here Comes the Brees	210 ppoa	228 (67% eff)	+18
Dynasore Losers	212 ppoa	244 (70% eff)	+32
Kelkowski	265 ppoa	206 (74% eff)	-59
Dynablaster Bombermen	233 ppoa	232 (67% eff)	-1
Champions of the Sun	204 ppoa	258 (74% eff)	+54
Tamworth Two	261 ppoa	216 (77% eff)	-45
East Flanders Dungeoneers	212 ppoa	208 (76% eff)	-4
Dynasty of Sadness	206 ppoa	211 (73% eff)	+5
DynaHarder	250 ppoa	282 (79% eff)	+32

The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.

For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.

Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.

In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.

Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week One

September 16, 2015

Max Cubberley

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Once the final scores are tallied each week, I, Maximilian Cubberley, feed them into a colourful spreadsheet to produce spurious stats that range from the inaccurate to the irrelevant. Last season I kept this to myself for the most part but now, you lucky bunch, you get to share in the fun too! Here’s some stats complete with half-arsed analysis from week 1 of the new season. As always, when we start something new we look to the past for validation. Let’s see how everyone’s week 1 compared to last season.

Don’t Take Offence

A lot changed in the off-season. Players were cut, players were traded, players were drafted, all David’s linebackers retired. Here’s a sweeping overview of the top offences for week 1 vs the top offences from last season.

Top 5 Offences in 2015:

Dynaforone Firebirds (125 points on average)
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules (120 poa)
Dynasore Losers (116 poa)
Champions of the Sun (110 poa)
DynaHard (108 poa)

Top 5 Offences in Week 1:

Dynaforone Firebirds (132 points)
DynaHard (122 points)
Tamworth Two (115 points)
East Flanders Dungeoneers (110 points)
Champions of the Sun (107 points)

Firebirds still sit top of the pile with Champions of the Sun also holding rough position. DynaHard have powered up the rankings powered by free agent signing Joseph Randle and the surprising competence of the Tennessee Titans offence. The news is not so good for Kelkowski though where an injury to Arian Foster, Jeremy Maclin’s new position as ‘A Chiefs’ Pass Catcher Who Isn’t Travis Kelce’ and Julius Thomas’ need to break his own hand to avoid having to play for the Jags has dropped them out of the top 5 and resulted in a loss of 14 points from their average. They can console themselves with the fact that at least they’re not the Dynasore Losers though who plummet from 3rd place to 9th after one week with a staggering loss of 42 points from last season’s average. Although many predicted a sharp drop-off for Slater’s boys I don’t think anyone can have expected this and the fans will be hoping that this is a blip for the Broncos not the whole story as the Losers’ offence looks lost without Manning and Sanders as Jordy Nelson is also gone for the season.

On the other hand, maybe we should all just take solace in the fact these stats clearly mean nothing. I mean, the freshly re-branded East Flanders Dungeoneers have somehow appeared in the top 5 there gaining 16 points over their average from last year. Time will tell if the improvement is sustainable.

As a general note, whilst there are obviously big swings in points from one week to the next it should be noted that for both offence and defence, 4 of the top 5 teams at the end of last season were also in the top 5 in week 1 of last season.

On the Defensive

Top 5 Defences in 2015:

Champions of the Sun (80 poa)
Tamworth Two (79 poa)
DynaHard (77 poa)
Here Comes the Brees (75 poa)
Dynabummer Blastermensch (75 poa)

Top 5 Defences in Week 1:

DynaHard (115)
Champions of the Sun (90)
Here Comes the Brees (71)
DynaforOne Firebirds (65)
Dynasore Losers (61)

As with Offence we can see the Champions of the Sun holding steady and DynaHard showing improvement for what was already a good unit. Both teams should be encouraged by week 1 of this season and take it as a sign that they can improve on their positions from last season. Worryingly for the rest of the league, the Firebirds have held steady on offence and improved on defence, cracking the top 5 in week 1 when they finished 2015 as the worst defensive unit. This improvement is in no small part due to a big improvement at linebacker where Derrick Johnson’s return seems to have sparked life into the team.

Both the Tamworth Two and the Dynabunny Boostermonks dropped out of the top 5 in week 1. For the Hogs this may not be more than a blip. They scored 61 points on defence, which is a significant drop but it was a quiet week for elite rushers Chandler Jones and Olivier Vernon that should not become the new norm for these players. The Dynaboomer Bustermuffs dropped from 75 points to 39 in week 1, in large part due to a dismal 2.5 point effort from their defensive line of Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams. Whilst this looks more alarming than the story for the Hogs you can’t look at those three names and say you expect single-digit defensive line performances going forward. The Bambimoons should bounce back next week.

Don’t Be Down on D

Some of you may be looking at your week 1 performances with a frowny face, worrying, particularly, about performance on the defensive side of the ball. With an average score of 64.5 on D this week the league is running at nearly 10 points under the average defensive performance than last year. There’s good news however as defensive point scoring trended up as the season went along last year. In weeks 1 to 5 last season, the average defence scored 65.1 points. In weeks 10 to 14 the average score jumped to 77.1. A lot of defensive positions are volatile, particularly DT, CB and S and it takes a while to pinpoint who the best players on the roster (or the wire) are for the coming season. Chances are that you will see your defences start to pick up more points as the season goes along and getting ahead of that knowledge curve in those volatile positions will help with that.

First to Worst

Now it’s time to overreact! Which units on which teams were good last season and terrible in week 1? Let’s find out.

Champions of the Sun RBs – 2015 rank: 3rd, Week 1 rank: 10th. With Le’Veon Bell and Lagarette Blount suspended, CJ Spiller injured and the Cleveland Cabal traded away it was no surprise to see the Champions rushing attack falter in week 1. Starting only two players for a combined 8.3 points it must have been painful viewing for the Dayman, even if it doesn’t seem to have cost him the win (disclaimer: scoring adjustments on Thursday are likely to make this statement false very shortly).
Dynasore Losers LBs – 2015 rank: 1st, Week 1 rank: 10th. As with the Champions’ rushers above, David Slater can’t have been surprised to see his linebacking corps disintegrate. DeAndre Levy released, Terrell Suggs injured, Tamba Hali another year older and, worst of all, Chris Borland retiring has left the Losers with a makeshift unit heaped on the shoulders of Ryan Kerrigan. It may pick up (to be honest, they scored 8 points between them this week, it couldn’t get worse) but we won’t be seeing the Losers back to the top of the charts at this position this year.
East Flanders Dungeoneers and Dynasty of Sadness Special Teams – 2015 rank: 4th and 3rd, Week 1 rank: 9th and 10th. It’s a sure sign that teams have been focusing their off-season efforts in the wrong places when special teams takes a hit. Despite how commonly acknowledged it is, both Pete Conaghan and Geoffrey Manboob seem to have forgotten that kickers and punters are the lifeblood of the team. If this course is not corrected immediately I foresee a dismal season ahead for both teams.

Last in the Past

Now let’s look at some of the units that have improved vastly over last season based on week 1 performance.

East Flanders Dungeoneers Running Backs – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd. When the Dungeoneers gave up Eddy Lacy for the 2nd pick in the draft it seemed like Pete Conaghan was accepting that sub par was the new par at running back. When he then traded away Lagarette Blount it seemed the white flag was already waving. Little did we know that Carlos Hyde was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson. Hyde put up 168 yards and 2 TDs in week 1 against the Vikings. Whilst you might question the sustainability of this, Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings contributed another 17 points and the unit was only narrowly pipped to #1 by an Ameer Abdullah and Eddy Lacy-led Sadness rushing unit. The Dungeoneers won’t get 47 points from this lot every week but they seem to be in a position to sustain a good performance for the season. They won’t win anything if they don’t sort out their special teams though. Seriously. Sort out your special teams, Pete.
Dynaforone Firebirds Linebackers – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd. Julius Peppers was a lone bright spot for the Firebirds last season at linebacker. This improvement may need to be taken with a pinch of salt as, despite coming 2nd on the week, the Firebirds’ linebackers put up a good week, not a great week. Derrick Johnson is a big plus for them though and Brandon Graham will have better days ahead. The unit is not deep though so an injury in the wrong place or age catching up to Peppers could see the Firebirds dropping back down the rankings again.

That’s it from me for week 1. Theoretically I will be doing more pointless stats in the coming weeks but, realistically, I’ll probably not be bothered.

Guest Previews 2015 – Here Comes the Brees by Max Cubberley

September 9, 2015

Max Cubberley

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2014 Record: 8-5, 2nd in Peter, 6th in points for, 6th in potential points, 7th in All Play, lost in Superb Owl final

Offseason Review

It’s been a while so let’s just refresh ourselves with that line up above there. 6th in points for, 6th in potential points and 7th in all play yet Here Comes the Brees limped all the way to the Superb Owl. Given that they got steamrollered by the Firebirds in the main event though the question is: was last season’s unlikely success actually a hindrance to the Brees? Receiving late draft picks because of it put them in the unenviable position of having a sparse roster and a lack of premium young talent to replenish. It has been a long, uncomfortable summer for Ben Archer and Dan Sayles.

One of the more active teams on the trade market, the Brees have attempted to turn areas of surplus strength on the defence or untrusted commodities into skill position improvements. Out have gone Marcell Dareus (not needed with Aaron Donald ready to step up this season), Kendall Wright, Corey Brown, Martellus Bennett and Roy Helu to be replaced with Isaiah Crowell, Terrance West, Marqise Lee, Allen Hurns, DeSean Jackson and a smattering of draft picks. It’s a lot of churn but the question could be asked of whether the overall quality of the team has really improved that much.

In free agency the odd decision was taken to recruit Owen Daniels, another TE to add to a stable that already included Tyler Eifert, Zach Ertz and Martellus Bennett. Even with Bennett’s departure, TE did not seem to be an area requiring much investment and although Daniels lands in a good and familiar situation that roster spot could perhaps have been better used elsewhere. Apart from that the Brees only invested capital in upgrading their linebackers, bringing in Nigel Bradham and Pernell McPhee. Bradham’s addition will not excite, he’s a run-of-the-mill depth option, but Pernell McPhee is a good addition. Although he’s seen only limited snaps in his career to date he has a high ceiling as a pass rusher and could prove a shrewd addition.

The trend of investing in skill positions continued in the draft with the first 4 picks going on Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Philip Dorsett and Maxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Williams. At the time the Brees must have hoped that Coleman and Perriman at least would be in a position to contribute straight away but, heading into week 1, Coleman seems to be behind Freeman in Atlanta (although the Brees do at least have Freeman) and Perriman is injured. Dorsett hasn’t established himself as the Colts #3 option yet and Williams is a 1st year TE so it would be unfair to set too high expectations. For all that, there is a nice mix of talent and situations there and, looking longer-term, the draft looks positive, particularly with the addition of defensive Swiss Army Knife Shaq Thompson and Jordan Hicks, though whether the Brees needed more linebackers is a question that could be asked (although who am I to judge?)

Areas of Improvement: The Brees have scraped together some talent at RB now though they can’t be happy with the number of committees they’re working with (Atlanta, Cleveland and Tampa, at least to some extent). WR still looks like a barren wasteland with the uncertainty around Victor Cruz and Pierre Garcon but DeSean Jackson provides a big ceiling each week and there are some young lottery tickets that may pay off in Charles Johnson, Perriman (when fit) and the two Jacksonville receivers.

Areas of Regression: Focusing so heavily on offence leaves the defensive side of the Brees roster looking underwhelming. The loss of Dareus removes depth and flex options and, even with the additions, the selection of linebackers is very ho-hum. Money invested into Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett needs to come off this season for the Brees to hold their own on this side of the ball.

Prediction: With few off-season moves set to make a big splash straight away you have to say that the best case scenario would be for the Brees to go 6-7 and finish in the position where their points total should have had them last year. More likely would be 5-8 or even 4-9 and a high pick in next year’s draft.

2015 Commish Preview: Here Comes The Brees

August 24, 2015

Commish

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Team: Here Comes The Brees – Ben Archer/Dan Sayles

2014 Record: 8-5, 9^th pick, Superb Owl runner-up

Significant Additions:

Draft – Tevin Coleman (RB), Breshad Perriman (WR), Phillip Dorsett (WR), Maxx Williams (TE)

Free Agency – Charles Johnson, WR), Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB), Owen Daniels (TE)

Trade – DeSean Jackson (WR), Charles Sims (RB), Isaiah Crowell (RB), Terrance West (RB), Marqise Lee (WR), Allen Hurns (WR)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Ben Roethlisberger (QB), Justin Forsett (RB),

Trade – Marcel Dareus (DT), Roy Helu (RB), Corey Brown (WR), Kendall Wright (WR), Martellus Bennett (TE)

Preview:

Runners-up in the Superb Owl, yes. Second best team in the league? Not so much. Here Comes The Brees was the little engine that could in 2014, reciting to itself over and over “I think I can, I know I can”. It came up just short in the most one-sided Superb Owls in history*. It was impressive, but was it sustainable? AWE tells us the Brees were the most over-performing team in the league. By more than 2 wins. They would have been expected to win just 5.88 games with their performance. They had a 14% chance of reaching 8 wins, but they made it and no one can take that away from them. Now comes that difficult second season.

They were 6^th in total points scored, but 8^th in potential points, with only the Dungeoneers and the Sadness having the potential to score fewer. The luck of the draw got them to the heights, but GMs Archer and Sayles have worked hard through the off-season to improve the roster.

Andrew Luck is a brilliant starting point for any fantasy team, but the running backs of Tampa, Cleveland and second string in St Louis are not the next building blocks you’d be looking for. Lamar Miller is a great option and Tevin Coleman holds promise but in a more pass-orientated offense.

DeSean Jackson and Charles Johnson are decent WR2/3 options but here they are carrying the can with a hobbled Cruz, a retiring Steve Smith, and an indeterminate Reuben Randle being the main back-up. The rookies all offer decent potential , but are either coming through camp with injuries or battling for a place in a crowded field. They look good, just not for 2015. Tight end holds promise, if any of them can make it through a full season.

The defence is more promising. Anyone who can put out Aaron Donald every week is cheating because one week he’ll be on a bye, but Donald is an immense talent and, Luck aside, the best player on the roster. However, this is a league brimming with DE talent and it’s an area where the Brees are lacking. Two ends will be needed each week which will not be to their advantage.

Further back, Harrison Smith is a star at safety but otherwise the defence is middling. Those stars should push the defence into mid-table existence, but the question is, have they improved enough from 2014?

Verdict:

Let’s get right to it and answer that question I posed at the end of the preview – no. They haven’t. Sorry. Did you want me to wrap that up in cotton wool and put a bow on it? Last season the astute pick-up of Justin Forsett after week 1 helped the team push on. Similar waiver work will be needed to turn this team into something competitive in 2015, but there are enough young players on the roster now to suggest there’s hope for 2016 and 2017.

Prediction:

5-8 and the 2^nd pick in the draft. That 2^nd pick could come in pretty handy when it comes to redeveloping this squad.

*While this statement may be true right now purely because there’s only been one, come back in 10 years and it’ll still be just as true. DynaForOne more than doubled the Brees’ score.

Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

June 29, 2015

David Slater

League Business Rookie Draft Stat Attacks Trading No Comments

With the draft in the books, it’s time to take stock and work out what it all means… Pre-draft needs are taken from the 2.0 draft.

DynaHarder

Pre-draft needs: QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S

What you started with: 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 4.11, 5.01, 5.11, 6.01, 7.01. Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, DeAngelo Williams

What you ended up with: Toddy Gurley, Marcus Mariota, David Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Jeremy Langford, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, Bradley Pinion, TY Hilton

The worst case: An over-used running back, with a succession of muscle injuries and topped off by one few, if any, players ever completely recover from, on a team who’s line has been rebuilt after stinking out 2014… Gurley out T-Riches T-Rich. The least Whisenhunt QB ever, going to work with Ken Whisenhunt, and two depth options from a moribund offence offer no viable fantasy starters. In fact, in the worst case scenario, the only fantasy relevant starter in this draft is a punter. At least there’s TY Hilton, until he signs somewhere else next year.

The upside: Hilton doesn’t land in a bad spot when he leaves the Colts. Gurley’s injury doesn’t take much of his top end and he becomes the best thing in St Louis since Faulk. Mariota rejuvenates the Titans offence, and Cobb quickly moves to the top of the depth chart behind a line which improves a lot as Warmack finally harnesses his talent. Bell replaces Jackson, Forte leaves the Bears and Diggs develops into Teddy’s favourite target. Then you wake up.

Realistically: Mariota may never be a fantasy starter, but he fills the need at QB, Gurley and Cobb offer solid RB3 options and Hilton is a very good WR2. The needs at TE and S can be filled in free agency, with good options available there.

Dynasty of Sadness

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.

What you started with: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.12, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02. Calais Campbell*, Cam Newton

What you ended up with: Ameer Abdullah, Jaelen Strong, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Bud Dupree, Arik Armstead, DeAndre Carter, Zach Zenner, Eddie Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Markus Wheaton, Sheldon Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Paul Richardson*, Drew Brees

The worst case: You wasted your top pick on a back up, and have thoroughly sewn up a wholly worthless Detroit backfield. Robinson and Jones are gambles that don’t work out. Armstead is a project who never projects to anything and Wheaton, Williams and Osweiler don’t even make it through roster cuts. With no targets in the passing game Brees wastes the last couple of years of his fantasy relevance and Teddy never kicks on, leaving two QBs who rank just outside the top 10. A third concussion in three years leads to a long lay off and he returns a shadow of his best on limited workloads, meanwhile Amari Cooper tears it up and somehow this trade ends up looking like the Sadness got the worst end.

The upside: Lacy is the RB1 the Sadness needed and Abdullah quickly replaces Bell who’d plateaued at mediocre to become a good RB2. Strong is a solid WR2/3, Richardson and Dupree are defensive starters, Jones replaces Morris who leaves in free agency and Robinson replaces Gore in 12 months. Carter outperforms Perriman and Armstead develops into the beast his physical stature suggests.

Realistically: Brees fills the need at QB immediately, giving time for Bridgewater to develop, Lacy is a definite filler for RB1. The need at TE could be filled in the medium term with a free agent rookie and Sheldon Richardson is a solid starting DE2. Dupree fills a need at LB and could play from year one. Need at DT remains. The Sadness are definitely improved in the draft, but for all the trading, they ended up with the same number of picks they started with and a lot of the trade pieces were middling at best.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pre-draft needs: RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.

What you started with: 1.03, 2.03, 2.11, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 6.03, 7.03. Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Steve Smith*, Brock Osweiler, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

What you ended up with: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devin Smith, Mike Davis, Rashad Greene, Paul Dawson, Cam Newton, Keenan Allen*, Vernon Davis, Darren Sproles, Ryan Tannehill

The worst case: You traded away a legitimate RB1 at pennies on the dollar, bringing in wide receivers who will get thrown the ball (sideways) by Derek Carr, Genome and sulky Jay Cutler (until he’s cut next summer). Cam is a busted flush, who isn’t a viable fantasy starter without running and Tannehill is not Brees. Keenan Allen turns out to be the guy from 2014, rather than 2013 and Vernon Davis and Darren Sproles are only starting because they play for the Dungeoneers.

The upside: Both Cooper and White hit big early, and given a couple of years Devin Smith develops into a viable starter when the Jets find a QB. Cam’s pocket passing develops, but he remains a big threat on the ground, and a top 5 QB, while Tannehill becomes good tradebait for a QB-needy team. Both Clay and Davis are solid TEs at least for the short term and Levy remains a top tier LB for a few more years. Gore turns out to be actually invincible as has long been suspected.

Realistically: At best one of Cooper and White develops into a top tier WR1/2, but the other is serviceable as a 3rd receiver. Yes, the team sucks this year, but that just puts them in a good position to get a good RB in 2016. Paul Dawson should be a fine ILB, and Keenan Allen’s true worth is probably as a decent WR2, regardless of which, stealing him for Steve Smith was a stroke of genius. Defensive End is still a problem.

Tamworth Two

Pre-draft needs: WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.

What you started with: 1.04, 2.04, 3.04, 4.04, 5.04, 6.04, 7.04. Markus Wheaton, Vernon Davis, Orlando Scandrick, John Brown, Darren Sproles

What you ended up with: DeVante Parker, Duke Johnson, Vic Beasley, DeAndre Smelter, Cameron Artis-Payne, Landon Collins, Denzel Perryman, Karlos Williams, Darren Waller

The worst case: The bust rate on first round receivers is massive, and even if Parker doesn’t bust, there’s no guarantee he is anything more than a low end fantasy starter or flex in Miami’s uninspired offence. Smelter is a reach who never becomes relevant, Johnson is part of a committee and Artis-Payne and Williams only handcuffs. A defensive starter or two don’t make up for the misses on offense, meanwhile John Brown lights it up for the Champions of the Sun.

The upside: Parker works well underneath in Miami’s new offence and gets volume yardage as well as red-zone action. Johnson establishes himself as the main back in Cleveland and Beasley, Collins and Perryman all serve their teams well. Smelter needs time but becomes a flex option, replacing Boldin, while Williams and Artis-Payne back up the main men on Tamworth Two just fine.

Realistically: Parker is probably a WR2 at best, with his viability underneath and in the red zone making him a good option for Tannehill who doesn’t have the arm to make good deep throws. Johnson is in a committee in Cleveland, but could end up being the main part of it, either way, he’s probably a low end RB2 at best. Beasley should be a viable DE and Perryman and Collins could also be viable positional starters. John Brown might be the new TY Hilton, but without Andrew Luck that doesn’t mean much.

Champions of the Sun

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2/3, WR3.

What you started with: 1.05, 2.05, 3.05, 4.05, 5.05, 6.05, 7.05. DeSean Jackson, Paul Richardson*, Da’Norris Searcy, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee.

What you ended up with: Jay Ajayi, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr, Thomas Rawls, Bernardrick McKinney, Hau’oli Kikaha, MyCole Pruitt, Michael Bennett, Marcel Dareus, Calais Campbell*, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, John Brown

The worst case: Ajayi never displaces Lamar Miller, Williams is used situationally, Fowler never makes it to the NFL due to injuries, Dareus moves to nose, Helu disappears into Oakland’s depth chart much as he did in Washington, neither of the Browns are viable starters and Michael Bennett is more of a nose alongside San’derrick Marks. Lots of flex players, but few starters.

The upside: John Brown is the new TY Hilton with Palmer back, Dante Fowley and Williams develop into top tier NFL ends, and MyCole Pruitt takes over as the Vikings Tight End. Dareus ends up with all the play of an end, while remaining a DT by position on MFL.

Realistically: Having traded down and then out of the first there wasn’t a potential star available, and picking up the best two defenders in the mid rounds represents value, if not necessarily guaranteeing any success. Ajayi might be short term due to injury concerns, but it’s a short term position anyway, and with bell leading the RBs there’s no need for him to be a star. Rawls is a wasted pick, but gives you a monopoly on the Seattle running backs who never actually play.

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Pre-draft needs: ‘elite’ players.

What you started with: 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 4.13, 5.06, 6.06, 7.06. Danny Lansanah, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Steven Jackson*

What you ended up with: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Justin Hardy, Trae Waynes, Shane Ray, Grady Jarrett, Trey Flowers, Christian Ringo, Jeremy Hill, Orlando Scandrick

The worst case: Gordon ensures control of a San Diego backfield that sucks, his tendency to bounce outside and get tackled for a loss, relying on speed to beat sub-par college players proves unsurprisingly unsuccessful in the NFL. Conley discovers why Kansas receivers didn’t score a TD at all last year, Hardy is the new Harry Douglas while David Johnson ensure Arizona’s committee of mediocrity is maintained. With Green returning and Bernard fitter, Hill ends up part of a committee also, although not as mediocre as the one in Arizona, neither Bernard nor Hill are much more than RB2s.

The upside: Hill, Ellington, Johnson and Bernard fall into more traditional 1/2 roles giving 2 good starters, Conley shows the reason why KC didn’t score touchdowns was a lack of talent, rather than Alex Smith & Andy Reid and Gordon is the game-changing playmaker the Chargers traded up for. Waynes is a solid selection at CB, and Scandrick makes up a starting pair at the position with him.

Realistically: There’s probably an RB1 somewhere in the mess of Ellington, Hill, Bernard, Johnson, Oliver and Gordon, but whether there’s more than one is hard to call, and they could easily all get in each others ways. Conley and Hardy are upside picks, but both probably top out at WR2 or WR3. Shane Ray could be a decent DE in a year’s time, but might not offer much immediately. Hill and Gordon offer the best chance of hitting on an elite player and Green’s return to fitness should provide one at WR, but ultimately, the need to find an elite player or two probably wasn’t met in this draft.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Pre-draft needs: QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.

What you started with: 1.07, 2.07, 3.07, 4.07, 5.07, 6.07, 7.07.

What you ended up with: TJ Yeldon, Devin Funchess, Stephone Anthony, Randy Gregory, Danny Shelton, Ahmed Brooks

The worst case: Gerhart takes over the Jags backfield making Yeldon wait. Funchess’ lack of pace combined with Cam’s erratic throwing make for a poor combination, Anthony barely plays, Shelton is a nose and Randy Gregory is a bit too much of a prick for the cowboys to stomach.

The upside: Gregory is a solid steal in the middle rounds, and Anthony blossoms with improved scoring for inside backers. Funchess is an Olsen like workable WR2, and Yeldon gives the Jags a proper running back threat, it not at elite one.

Realistically: There’s still a need at Tight End, and Shelton (being a Nose) is probably not going to fill the need at tackle. Projecting Anthony as an LB1 in the short-term seems a streatch, and the need at QB was not filled due to Kelkowski not recognising the danger when the Losers traded up. Yeldon might be a starter at RB, but there wasn’t too serious a need at the position anyway, so he might end up being a reasonable chip for a trade. Funchess could go either way, but projects as at best a bench option in a fairly limited Panthers passing attack.

DynaSore Losers

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB

What you started with: 1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08, 5.08, 6.08, 7.08. Sheldon Richardson.

What you ended up with: Nelson Agholor, Jameis Winston, Sammie Coates, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Clive Walford, Jake Ryan, Danielle Hunter

The worst case: Agholor dropped for a reason, and that reason was Sam Bradford, who isn’t good before he gets hurt and is Mark Sanchez after. Coates never gets a look in at Pittsburgh and Odighizuwa never replaces JPP. Winston meanwhile is every bit as good as advertised and becomes the best quarterback serving time in federal prison, trading Richardson for him turns out even worse as the massive hole at DE goes unfilled.

The upside: Winston is every bit as good as advertised in the NFL, proving to be almost as good as Luck and replacing Manning for 2016 in the Losers starting QB slot. Agholor develops into a WR1 due to his ability to turn routine plays into huge gains and be a threat in the red zone. Coates meanwhile shows his big game talent regularly, replacing Bryant and Wheaton as a clear #2 option for Roethlisberger. Ryan and Odighizuwa are solid defensive starters from the early days and Walford is a decent bench option at TE.

Realistically: There’s a hole at DE that Odighizuwa won’t fill in 2015, and Hunter is even less likely to. No viable tackle is found and the weaknesses in defence undermine the team by costing silly points each week. There is a serious lack of depth at RB, and even covering bye weeks, let alone injuries, will be tough.

Here Comes the Brees

Pre-draft needs: RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S

What you started with: 1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09. Marcel Dareus, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, Keenan Allen, Martellus Bennett

What you ended up with: Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Maxx Williams, Shaq Thompson, Garrett Grayson, Jordan Hicks, Steven Jackson*, Steve Smith*, DeSean Jackson, Danny Lansanah, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee

The worst case: Perriman, Dorsett and Williams offer little to nothing in 2015, and don’t exactly light it up in 2016 either. Jackson remains the boom/bust receiver who misses 2-4 games a year with injuries. Owning the browns backfield is as worthwhile as it would seem and Coleman is a RB2 in the good years. Keenan Allen refinds his 2013 form.

The upside: Coleman establishes himself early and for a number of years as an RB1-/2+ and Perriman replaces Smith fairly seemlessly as a WR2-/3+. Williams is a solid tight end with a QB who loves throwing to him, and establishes himself as a solid TE1 and Dorsett’s talent sees him work his way into the team in 2015, with Hilton barely missed in 2016. Marquise Lee becomes a good depth receiver with his fitness issues overcome.

Realistically: There were a lot of players drafted, but this is a long-term sort of draft. Tight Ends rarely offer much in year one, Dorsett doesn’t offer much hope of a strong first year and Baltimore’s offence is hardly electric, suggesting Perriman will need time also. Ultimately this draft was one to position the team to be more competitive in 2016, and Dorsett, Perriman and Coleman should do that. 2015 will likely be rough though.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Pre-draft needs: DE1, LB, CB, S

What you started with: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7.10. Jeremy Hill, TY Hilton, Ryan Tannehill

What you ended up with: Dorial Green-Beckham, Eric Kendricks, Javorius Allen, Mario Edwards Jr, Henry Anderson, Bryce Petty, Martellus Bennett, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

The worst case: Trading starting offensive pieces for middling offensive and defensive starters is a tactic that backfires. Bennett is an expensive back-up for Gronk if he stays fit and a poor replacement if he doesn’t, Edelman isn’t going to replace Jones if he gets injured (again), and Ogletree is an upgrade at LB but at a stiff price. Kendricks is an ILB and doesn’t crack the top 20 LBs any time soon, Allen is the 3rd RB in Baltimore and DGB is nowhere on the Titans depth chart. Henry Anderson joined one of the worst rushing defences in the NFL.

The upside: Anderson becomes the pass rush in Indianapolis and the upgrades on defence offer more to the Firebirds than they lose on offence. Edelman is a good WR2, with Jones fit ahead of him and Hill isn’t missed because Lynch and Anderson carry the rock effectively and a lot.

Realistically: If / when Jones gets an injury the team will suffer as Edelman simply doesn’t have the potential to put up WR1 points that Hilton did and while Hill won’t be missed with Anderson and Lynch putting up solid RB1 points it’s likely that the points gained on defensive upgrades such as Ogletree and Levy only balance those lost on offensive players, with the team overall showing more variance in scoring and losing one or two more games in down weeks as a result.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two