Tag: Firebirds

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 2

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

For this week’s Stat Blat I thought I’d take the subject of my week 2 Stat Blat from last season and expand it.  In Week 2 of the 2015 season I looked at the average points from 2014 and 2015 through two weeks to looks for early indicators of squad improvement and design, as well as looking at potential points on average to see what impact GM selection was having.  I’ll be doing a similar idea this week.  For those of you who might claim I’m only doing this again so I don’t have to think of a new thing to look at, you’re quite right.

Reality Bites

Below is a table of comparisons for average points in weeks 1-2 of 2014, 2015 and 2016, ordered by 2015 finishing order.

Team Name 2015 Standing 2014 Wk2 2015 Wk2 2016 Wk2 POA Diff
Champions 11-2 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (192 poa) 1-1 (216 poa) +11/+24
Tamworth 2 7-6 2-0 (185 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 0-2 (184 poa) -18/+17
Dyna Hard 10-3 0-2 (168 poa) 2-0 (223 poa) 0-2 (176 poa) +55/-47
Kelkowski 6-7 2-0 (212 poa) 0-2 (153 poa) 1-1 (160 poa) -59/+7
Bombermen 6-7 0-2 (168 poa) 0-2 (156 poa) 2-0 (224 poa) -12/+68
Sadness 4-9 0-2 (129 poa) 0-2 (154 poa) 1-1 (174 poa) +25/+20
Losers 6-7 2-0 (175 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 1-1 (190 poa) -3/+23
Dungeoneers 5-8 1-1 (161 poa) 2-0 (158 poa) 1-1 (171 poa) -3/+13
Breeses 6-7 1-1 (146 poa) 0-2 (152 poa) 1-1 (191 poa) +6/+39
Firebirds 4-9 1-1 (137 poa) 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (206 poa) +44/+25

 

The obvious story on the positive side is the Dynablaster Bombermen.  After a disappointing 2015 they’ve come out gangbusters in 2016 with a massive 68 point average performance jump from 2015.  A big part of that has to be their receivers with Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews all in their 3rd years now and established as the number 1 options on their team.

Behind the B-men there are a cluster of teams showing significant improvement in the 20s range.  The Firebirds have started stronger each year of the Dbowl so far and have been propelled to a 2-0 start by the surprising strength of their defence, averaging 112 points per game, the best in the league.  The Dynasore Losers have also improved on 2015 and have had their strongest start yet, despite being 1-1.  Offensive improvement is key here as the team is averaging 15 points more on offence through 2 games then they did in 2015, much of it contributable to a shift to Carson Palmer at QB and Matt Forte’s huge workload in New York.

The Sadness have shown steady improvement now for two years but when you consider that they still only averaged 174 points this year so far then it’s clear that this is just the continuing story of a team struggling towards mediocrity after an awful initial draft.  Still, improvement is improvement and the team is young.  If they jump 20 points again next year they could find themselves 2-0.  Lastly, the Champions (in every sense of the word) may be 1-1 but have shown improvement again this year.  This may not be a sign that they are in for another dominant year though as they actually started slowly last season.  The second highest average points scored shows that they are still a force to be reckoned with though.

On the other hand, you have to look at Chris Braithwaite’s Dyna Hard With A Vengeance and wonder what went wrong.  They were hugely improved last season but seem to have lost all of that positive gain this year, losing 47 points on average.  As I highlighted in my preview, the running backs are a problem with none of them averaging over 10 points a game but the WRs are struggling too.  Only Antonio Brown is over 20 total points, none of the rest are even close.  The offence is averaging less than 100 points a game.  Only the Firebirds are worse and, unlike Neil’s team, Chris’ defence is not firing on all cylinders.

Interestingly, Chris is the only team to be averaging less points than this time last year.  Every other team is showing improvement.  This doesn’t seem to be a result of scoring changes as it’s actually the offences that are scoring higher than last year’s averages, rather than the defences.  Teams as a whole are averaging 189 points compared to 184 from last season.  Maybe we’re all just getting better at this shit?

Is It Indicative?

Is there really any point to this?  Does performance in the first two weeks of the season actually tell you anything about how a team will do that season?  Below is each team’s Week 2 Average and Season Average.

Team Name 2015 Wk2 Wk2 Rk 2015 Season Season Rk POA Diff
Champions 2-0 (192 poa) 2nd 11-2 (217 poa) 1st +25
Tamworth 2 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 7-6 (189 poa) 3rd +22
Dyna Hard 2-0 (223 poa) 1st 10-3 (199 poa) 2nd -24
Kelkowski 0-2 (153 poa) 9th 6-7 (189 poa) 3rd +36
Bombermen 0-2 (156 poa) 7th 6-7 (183 poa) 4th +27
Sadness 0-2 (154 poa) 8th 4-9 (179 poa) 5th +25
Losers 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 6-7 (176 poa) 7th +9
Dungeoneers 2-0 (158 poa) 6th 5-8 (168 poa) 9th +10
Breeses 0-2 (152 poa) 10th 6-7 (171 poa) 8th +19
Firebirds 1-1 (181 poa) 3rd 4-9 (178 poa) 6th -3

 

The thing that jumps out to me straight away is the reasonably consistent rate of improvement for teams.  5 of the 10 teams improved by 19 to 27 points over the course of the season on average.  This, presumably, is down to a combination of waiver wire pickups and starting lineup adjustment as the stars stashed on your bench in week 1 and 2 start to show.  The biggest risers were Kelkowski.  Looking at their lineups it’s noticeable that players like Blake Bortles, Brandon Marshall (LB), Reggie Nelson and Kwon Alexander weren’t in the starting lineup in week 1 and other big performers like Spencer Ware and Malik Jackson weren’t even on the squad yet.

To me it seems telling that the only team to lose average points (who didn’t start out abnormally hot like DynaHarder) was the Firebirds.  Neil only added 8 players through blind-bid waivers last season.  The four teams who added the most players?  Champions of the Sun (42), DynaHarder (40), Tamworth Two (30) and Kelkowski (28), i.e. the four teams in the playoffs at the end of the season.  Obviously there is a lot more to being successful in the Dynabowl than constantly churning through waiver wire additions but there’s no denying that the right pickups can have a huge effect and, just like the draft, the more tickets you buy to the lottery the more chance you have to come away with a Josh Norman, a Spencer Ware, an Allen Hurns, a Whitney Mercilus or a Willie Snead.

As far as the question of whether week 2 results are indicative or not is concerned, no team except Kelkowski moved more than 3 positions from their Week 2 Ranking to their Season Ranking.  You can improve in your score in the early weeks for sure but the best/luckiest GMs will also be improving so your ability to make up ground on those people is limited.  However, it is definitely possible to stagnate and not improve over the season.  Everyone around you will be getting better and their scores will be getting higher.  You need to do everything you can, whether that’s waiver wire additions, trades or rotating in from your bench wisely, to improve with them.

Weekly Stats

Here are your weekly averages for week 2.

Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?
Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?

Weekly Peter vs Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 181.86 vs Tim (average) 196.53. Tim leads (margin 14.67)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 1

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

The first week of the NFL season is all about overreaction and the jerking of knees.  To honour that I will be looking at everyone’s opening week performances and drawing some wild conclusions about what it means for the season ahead.  In the absence of enough data to actually draw any real conclusions that’ll just have to do for you.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Hot Take: Keenan Allen is broken!  Quincy Enunwa is the new Brandon Marshall!  Carson Palmer’s about to go full Peter!  I remembered Kevin White plays for the Bears!  Coby Fleener didn’t get Drew Brees a birthday cake!  That’s right, my wild conclusion for Pete’s Dungeoneers is that their receiver group that looked so good on paper in pre-season is actually a stinking turd.  “But Maxuell,” I hear you cry, “The Dungeoneers scored 6.38 points per receiver, which was bad, but the Firebirds were worse at 5.94 points per receiver!”  It’s true, the Dungeoneers were only the second worst team on a points per starter basis this week but the Birds had 7.4 per player on the bench and the Dungeoneers had 5.4.

Srsly? Yes.  Allen is really done and the Bears’ offence looks pretty dire.  Fleener’s situation does not look good either and Pete’s backup TEs don’t look great.  Obviously it’s not as bad as all that.  Cooper is still a stud and Marshall and Floyd will get theirs but I had high hopes for this group that look like they won’t be borne out.

Here Comes The Brees

Hot Take: The Breeses are the best team in Peter (not saying much, I know, see below).  Andrew Luck is back to his gunslingin’ best and even in a week where Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller didn’t get into top gear the Breeses’ offence still averaged 11.57 points per starter, good for 2nd in the league.  The defence was in the bottom half of the league as you’d imagine but this team has the raw power to bludgeon other teams to death with the power of their attacking options.

Srsly? Yes.  The Breeses and the Sadness were the best two teams in Peter this week by a comfortable margin.  Looking at the rosters of the 5 teams there’s no doubt that the Brees have the edge in offensive power so as long as their defence can maintain its position of slightly below mediocre then they should be good to go.

Tamworth Two

Hot Take: Tamworth Two will be picking at #1 in the 2017 rookie draft.  T2’s starters in week 1 were uninspiring.  I mean, they’re rolling out 52 year-old Anquan Boldin at WR and a Cleveland RB.  Things look better on the defensive side of the ball but the nerfing of big plays brings the ceiling down on their elite DTs and it’s not hard to see everyone else except Kuechly and Jones hanging T2 out to dry.  This team is very average rather than bad but everyone else has upped their game and Mat are getting left in the dirt.

Srsly? No.  Everything’s very close in Peter to my mind so it’s not impossible but I think T2 have enough quality and Mat and James are good enough GMs that they won’t finish bottom.  Although they have Slatz’ first round pick so they may still end up with the #1 pick in the rookie draft…

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Hot Take: Teddy Tinyhands’ injury will lead the Sadness to the playoffs.  We all know Michael likes to tinker.  He’s never happy with his lineups and his choices and he’s always going backwards and forwards.  This often leads to him getting too clever on his choices and overthinking them.  For that reason, Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury was a very good thing for the Sadness.  Drew Brees is a consistent, top of the line fantasy QB and he was on the bench for the Sadness last season.  Now, unless Mangboob develops inexplicable Brockules man-love, Brees will be starting every game he’s available for and the Sadness will be better for it.  Perhaps the hotter take here is that I think the Detroit RBs will pave the way for a playoff appearance but both Abdullah and Riddick looked great and Mangboob could start both of them in a week and still be confident of results.

Srsly? No.  The Colts looked monumentally bad on Defence in the game against the Lions and Riddick and Abdullah will not get that open that often against many teams.  On the Brees front, I trust him, I just don’t trust Mike.  It’s a three way QBBC with Brockules and Goff when he starts.  Don’t ask me how it makes any sense, I don’t get it either.

Dynasore Losers

Hot Take: The Losers should be in re-building mode.  Look, they low-scored this week, they were third bottom in points scored last season and bottom in potential points.  Their running back corps consists of two 30+ year-old guys and a random assortment of limbs.  His defence looks like it was assembled by accident.  It’s time to get over that deep-seated tradeophobia, ship out some of the top talent and stack picks for the next couple of drafts.  Re-building around Moncrief, Landry and that stable of young QBs is the way forward for the Losers and week 1 proved it.

Srsly? Yes.  The team lacks youth and depth and you’re relying on a very high hit rate in the draft to get out of that if you don’t sell assets and stack picks up.  Free Agency should improve in quality over the next few years so it’s not impossible to rebuild that way but if Slater looked to sell the likes of Wilkerson, Forte and Sanders he could go into the 2017 draft with 10+ good picks and maybe even get back into the first round.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Hot Take: The Firebirds will make it to the Owl again.  A week 1 victory against the reigning champs?  Check.  A monster defensive performance?  Check.  The renaissance of CJ Anderson?  Check.  A dominant offence?  Ch… wait.  Oh.  Lowest scoring offence this week, you say?  Only 5.94 points per starting receiver, you say?  Second worst QB performance after Kirk Cousins, you say?  Oh.  Look, the fact that Neil’s boys put up nearly 200 points and won their matchup despite a poor offensive performance is exactly why I’m backing them.  You think Snead will be on the bench next week?  You forget that the Seahawks offence often starts slow?  Geno Atkins and Ndamukong Suh won’t put up over 40 points every week but they won’t need to.  I can see this team going places.

Srsly? No.  Of course not.  Neil will probably trade away all of his good players for a second tier DE and a 5th round pick.

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

Hot Take: Braithwaite’s boys will be held back by weak running backs.  So, Gurley is a bust right?  OK, that may be an over-reaction but when the opposing defence can put ten players within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st and 10 because they know your QB can’t throw it further than that you’re going to be really up against it.  Apart from Gurley Chris is calling on Jamaal Charles (not healthy and coming back to a backfield dominated by Spencer Ware) and Jeremy Langford (just shit and only scoring points because there’s no-one better there yet) to do the business.  The rest of his RBs are long-shot rookies or backups and this could get ugly.  In week 1 they averaged 7.87 points per starter and 2.13 per player left on the bench (of which Shaun Draughn was the top scorer with his 16 yards and 1 vultured TD).  Gurley will have his big weeks but I don’t like any of the rest of these guys to produce consistently.

Srsly? Yes.  The hot take is harsh on Charles who isn’t the kind of player you don’t give a role to when healthy but I do think there will still be a big role for Ware all season long and that caps his ceiling.  Jeremy Langford’s best case scenario is that he keeps the job and continues to churn away his 3-3.5 YPC but any week he doesn’t get in the end zone is likely to be a low scorer.  Chris doesn’t have the TEs to only play 2 TEs and his best bet might be to hope for an injury to Rawls or Ryan Matthews to get Christine Michael or Kenjon Barner involved.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Hot Take: Kelkowski have one of the top three defences in the league.  3.58 per starter at DT/DE (7th in the league), 4.06 at CB (worst in the league) and 53.50 points total on defence (worst in the league).  Those stats should tell you everything you need to know to backup the point right?  Look, no-one’s going to pretend this defensive performance from Kelkowski wasn’t disappointing.  I imagine the men (man?) themselves had something to say to their players after the game but the reality is that the majority of this bad performance was down to a low-scoring secondary and a donut from Malik Jackson.  Every secondary in the league can have bad games, the position is very fickle, and Kelkowski have a good group full of potential.  Malik Jackson will start to rack up the points once he adjust fully to playing in Jacksonville and they still have one of the strongest groups of LBs in the league.  They’ll be fine.

Srsly? Yes.  This really is a very talented bunch who just had an off day.  Kelkowski were good in 2014, they were good again in 2015 and they’ll be good again this year.  Someone over there (presumably Ian because it’s almost certainly not Jay) knows what they’re doing.

Champions of the Sun

Hot Take: The Champions of the Sun will go from first to worst in Tim.  It was only a freakish performance from Ben Roethlisberger and DeAngelo Williams that even made this week 1 matchup with the Firebirds respectable.  The Champions scored ok on offence (largely due to the two already mentioned) but their much vaunted defence of last season did not show up at all.  Their 63.18 points was good for 8th worst and the main problem was upfront where their line scored a measly 1.75 points per player.  There was an average of 6.83 points per player on the bench but whether Cubberley has the nous to pick the right players week-on-week is seriously up for debate.

Srsly? Of course not, I’m a hustler baby.  Here comes Owl number 2!

Dynablaster Bombermen

Hot Take: Week 1 was a flash in the pan and the Bombermen will slide back to the pack and miss the playoffs.  The Bombermen were the best team by a country mile in week 1 with a whopping 13.72 points per player on offence (best in the league).  Their receivers racked up 85.8 points, only just missing out on the top 5 receiving performances of all time in the league.  So am I a crazy person?  That all depends on whether you think Melvin Gordon is going to get 2 TDs per fame when the Chargers are always playing catchup.  Or on whether you think Ryan Shazier (questionable for the weekend with a knee injury, again) can play regularly.  Or on whether you think Jordan Matthews is breaking out or if you think he was just up against the Browns.  There are obviously stars on this team (AJ Green, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, Greg Olsen) but I think week 1 was just right place, right time, their QBs are terrible and this kind of performance won’t be repeated every week.

Srsly? No.  Did you see the list of players I wrote down as the stars on the team?!  I even left some out.  The Bombermen are stacked.  They were many people’s favourites to win the Owl in 2015 and week 1 establishes them among the favourites to win it this year.

Weekly Stats

If I remember, I’ll post up a picture of the year’s average stats here when I do a blat.

Nothin' but the stats, ma'am.
Nothin’ but the stats, ma’am.

 

Weekly Peter vs Tim-watch: For two seasons now, Peter has been the Wallace Shawn to Tim’s Andre the Giant but could the tide be turning?  Every Stat Blat I will take a couple of lines to compare Peter vs Tim so we can all keep an eye on the situation.

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim.

Stew’s Pot Luck – Don’t Take Offence, It’s The Offensive Previews

Previews No Comments

Dynabowl offensive previews

 

East Flanders Dungeoneers

2015 record: 5-8 (8th)

 

With a lacklustre finish in 2015, EFD needs a strong start to have a shot at improving their record. There will be no better way to do this than with Cam at QB in the season opener. He’s a beast in the 4 point-per-passing TD format (amassing 636 rushing yards and 10 TDs in 2015) and Tannehill won’t get a look in.

 

The depth at WR is the other bright light. Allen, Cooper (1,070 yards, 6 TDs in 2015) and Marshall (1,052 yards, 14 TDs in 2015), are easy locks for starting at WR and should produce big things. Floyd is on a lot of breakout lists this season, though he could be anywhere from the 1st to 4th best receiver in an offence that brimmeth over with talent. White’s breakout hopes seem to be dwindling, so these starters need to stay healthy.

 

The RB core is a big of a dumpster fire. Carlos Hyde could be decent and showed some brilliance at the beginning of the 2015 season (182 yards and 2 TDs in week 1!). Rashad Jennings is probably a bit short of RB2 material, though he ended 2015 strongly (over 100 yards in each of the last four weeks) and should have more of a feature role in 2016 and improve on his 20th best RB ranking in 2015.

 

Fleener, while no Graham circa. 2014, is an excellent starting TE and an upgrade over Watson – he should take a good chunk of the points production at N’Orleans.

 

Final offensive prediction: 1-12 (10th place).

 

Here comes the Brees

2015 record: 6-7 (9th)

 

With a reasonable regular season record, I’m left wondering what happened in the post-season to finish 9th overall? I’m assuming it was horrible to watch and may have been, at least in part, due to the hubris and nemesis of Freeman (1,056 rushing yards, 11 TDs but only 4 yards per carry in 2015).

 

Things are looking bright at QB. Tom Brady (2nd best QB in 2015) is the single greatest player (nay person) to pick up a football and Andrew Luck should have a much better 2016 with an improved O-line and time to recover form the spate of injuries in 2015. With two starters after week 4, also potential for a nice trade here to help out at WR.

 

I love the RB depth with this team. Lamar Miller was wasted in Disneyland and is going to be a stud this season in Houston. Doug Martin (1,402 yards, 6 TDs) had an excellent 2015 and should pick up where he left off. There are question marks over whether Freeman can re-find the promise he showed pre-concussion but should be excellent. Sims is a quiet sleeper for me to pick up good all-purpose yards production, while Hightower is a valuable back-ups if Ingram goes down.

 

With the exception of TD machine Allen Robinson (14 TDs in 2015), the WRs are quite thin on the ground. Fitzgerald should have another nice 1,000 yard+ season and Dorsett is worth keeping an eye on, if Luck gets going and spreads the ball around to more than Hilton and Moncrief. I like Ertz at TE this season, a solid stand-in for Tylenol Eifert while he gets back to full health.

 

Final offensive prediction: 4-9 (8th place).

 

Tamworth Two

2015 record: 7-6 (2nd)

 

Oh to be back in 2015, when McFadden (1,089 rushing yards, 3 TDs) was doing what Randle couldn’t in Dallas, Stewart was over-delivering in Carolina (989 rushing yards, 6 TDs), Crabtree was dominating catches in Oakland (85 rec vs. Coopers 72), and we still assumed Peyton would be able to throw a ball to Thomas (1,304 yards, 6 TDs). At the start of the 2016 season, the team is looking a bit less shiny.

 

The position at QB is looking strong with two starters. Rodgers’ Packers will feel they deserve a Superb owl appearance, so should be … well, superb. I like Tyrod Taylor in 4 point-per-passing-TD formats. As long as Watkins (11 yards per target and 17 yards per reception in 2015) can remain healthy and productive, he will be a good starter, leading to some difficult starting line-up options some weeks.  

 

At RB, LeSean McCoy (17th best RB in 2105, but a disappointing 3 rushing TDs over 12 games) should be a solid RB1. After that, there’s a bumfight for RB2 spot. Duke Johnson could be a sleeper if Cleveland can remain competitive and he dominates touches in favour of Crowell.

 

There are two good starting WRs in Thomas and Jeffrey (807 yards, 4 TDs over 9 games), though both have their risks – new QB and injury/offensive ineffectiveness respectively. Crabtree is likely to be the third best receiver, but should take a step back in 2016 as Cooper shines. As long as he can keep the bulk of the redzone work, he should be ok though.

 

Not much to shout about at TE. Eric Ebron (537 yards, 5 TDs in 2015) is the obvious starter and should get a bump following the departure of Megatron but difficult to get too excited about based on an unexciting 2015.

 

Final offensive prediction: 2-11 (9th place).

 

TPRot4thD: Dynasty of Sadness

2015 record: 4-9 (6th)

 

The recent injury to Teddy Bridgewater was gruesome (flailing knee anyone) but with Brees (averaging 20+ fantasy points per game in 2015) taking the starting QB position  the fantasy impact for this team should be nil. Osweiler is a nice back-up if needed and has looked promising in the preseason. Goff will probably forget his own name so probably want to steer clear. Sweet tank though.

 

The depth at RB looks much improved with the addition of Elliot and Dixon (a good stash for week 4+). Elliot has all the signs of being a stud taking advantage of that O-line. I got burned by the Abdullah (pathetic 597 rushing yards and 6 fumbles) hype in 2015, so don’t have too much confidence in the Detroit RBs. Riddick’s (80 rec in 2015) role is pretty well defined on the passing plays and Zenner seems unlikely to provide enough production to start on a week-to-week basis, despite looking like the best RB in Detroit before getting injured.

 

At WR, “ODB” (1,450 yards, 13 TDs in 2015) is the shining light and should be amaze-balls. Despite no obvious number two, there is good sleeper value. Kenny Stills has been getting some attention in Miami, while Michael Thomas, Treadwell and Diggs are all good candidates to step into sizeable roles in 2016.

 

Delanie Walker (94 rec, 1,088 yards and 6 TDs) should be excellent this season in an improved Tennessee offence and Dwayne Allen should bounce back and be more productive following the Fleener departure – a nice decision to have to make each week.

 

Final offensive prediction: 8-5 (4th place).

 

Dynasore Losers

2015 record: 6-7 (7th)

 

This looks like a team that can grind out wins in 2016, but it won’t be pretty.

 

With about 1/10th of the salary cap going on four mid-range QBs, it might be time to rationalise with some blue-sky thinking to create a new paradigm. Carson Palmer (close to leading with 4,671 passing yards and 35 TDs in 2015) seems like the obvious starter, if he can stay healthy and take advantage of the WR talent in Arizona, though Carr (15th in 2015) and Winston (13th in 2015) may also be worth starting in a given week.

 

This team is shallow at RB. Peterson (1,707 all-purpose yards, 11 TDs in 2015) should get a lot of work to start the season, though I’d want McKinnon too should age and workload catch up with AP. I’m not optimistic about the rest. Forte (< 900 rushing yards, 7 TDs) seems likely to take another step back in 2016 and Blount (only 746 yards, but 7 TDs in 2015) might be a good starter but you really will have no idea week-to-week. I don’t see Washington doing much without an injury to Murray.

 

To balance this, the team looks great at WR. Jordy is back and will be a stud in the Bay. Moncrief (only 733 yards and 7 yards per target in 2015), seems to be on all sleeper lists everywhere always and his ADP has been creeping up, with good reason. Landry (1,270 all-purpose yards, 5 TDs in 2015) is a great pick in Miami, as long as Tannehill and the O-line hold strong in 2016. Gordon is an unknown, but after a promising preseason he could be great. To round it out, the WR2 position in Pitt is up for grabs and Coates seems a good candidate to run with it.

 

Nothing to shout about at TE – Graham (74 targets over 11 games) could be productive but needs to prove he can play a sizeable role in Seattle and Walford showed some promise and rapport with Carr in 2015, but would need to take a large step up to be worth starting.

 

Final offensive prediction: 6-7 (6th place).

 

DynaForOne Firebirds

2015 record: 4-9 (10th)

 

A disappointing 2015 record shouldn’t discourage this team for 2016 – they’re definitely my favourite to get a most improved award.

 

At QB, Russell Wilson (4,024 passing and 553 rushing yards in 2015) will be excellent with his hands and feet and should have a good shot at ending the season at number 1 and MVP. Rivers (4,792 passing yards in a league leading 661 attempts) throws a tonne is a decent stand in for the bye week and a sneaky choice when the match-up suits.

 

This is a damn fine bunch of RBs. The new, leaner Lacy (only 946 all-purpose yards in 2015) should be back on form after a disappointing 2015. Hopefully CJ Anderson (903 all-purpose yards in 2015) has shaken off his ankle troubles from last year. And despite the naysayers, I like Mathews – he has an inexperienced QB who will want to hand off and while he faces injury risk, this seems far overblown. Plus a mint week 1 match-up. Gore (12th best RB in 16 games and 260 attempts in 2015), could still be a workhorse in Indy and Rawls (6 yards per rushing attempt) could be useful, despite Seattle’s backfield shaping up to be an RBBC.

 

The WR bunch seems well thought through. Julio (1,871 yards in 20150 is the sole stud, and Edelman (37th best WR despie only playing 9 games) is great but with some patience there is a great chance that a few of the other WRs will emerge as top 20 WRs in 2016. My money is on Snead (984 yards in 2015) with a pass-heavy New Orleans offence, though Jackson and Sharp both have 2nd year QBs in offenses that should be productive in scoring points and chasing games. DGB is probably not going to do anything, but it would be cool to see him get going in Philly.  

 

Gronk-party boat-owski (1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 2015) is amazing, but you knew that.

 

Final offensive prediction: 11-2 (2nd place).

 

Dynablaster Bombermen

2015 record: 6-7 (5th)

 

When you’ best QBs are Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins (8th best QB in 2015 with 4,166 passing yards and 70% competion), difficult questions will be asked. Dak had a nice pre-season but I think Cousins will be the go-to guy, with a nice receiving core and an improving O-line. RGIII got named team captain, which is nice for him. Still, it’s the Browns though.

 

David Johnson (1,038 all-purpose yards, 12 TDs in 2015) will be fun to watch in Arizona and, if he lives up to anywhere near his ADP, will be a lock for 1500+ all-purpose yards and 12+ TDs. So that’s all good then. The memories of 2015 disasters past seem to be fading for Gordon (not a top 50 RB in 2015) and Hill (794 rushing yards, but 11 TDs!), though they might be difficult to trust week-to-week given the bust potential. Gio (21st best RB in 2015, 1,200 all purpose yards, 5 TDs)  should emerge as a decent match-up proof RB2 or flex behind that O-line.

 

At WR, AJ “turf toe” Green (1,297 yards off only 132 targets in 2015) is one of the most fun players to watch, as long it’s not prime-time. Cooks (12th best WR, 1,138 receiving yards in 2015) and Decker (10th best WR, 1,027 receiving yards but 12 TDs in 2015) should be very productive again in 2016. Benjamin may start slower than Funchess and Olsen, and rumours are he’s chubbed up a bit and is losing snap counts, so not sure what to expect there.

 

Greg Olsen (1,104 yards and 7 TDs in 2015) should have another solid season with plenty of red zone targets, you pretty much know what you get at this stage. It’s a shame, therefore, that Butt-catch Barnidge (1,043 yards and 9 TDs in 2015) will probably warm the bench.

 

Final offensive prediction: 9-4 (3rd place).

 

Champions of the Sun

2015 record: 11-2 (1st)

 

Congratulations to this team on their dominant record in 2015 and championship. However, I can see the crown slipping in 2016.

 

Big Ben (21st but almost 4,000 yards in 12 games in 2015) had an excellent 2015 and will be a fine fantasy starter in 2016, despite slipping in fantasy rankings. Not much in terms of back-ups here though, with Lynch losing the starter job to Siemian and may be third behind Sanchez also.

 

Bell is the clear RB1 from week 4, and Williams (1,274 all purpose yards, 11 TDs in 2015) should be an excellent fill in, with a great week 1 match-up to boot. I love Stradivarius Murray (10th best RB in 2015, with 1,298 all-purpose yards but only 6 TDs), who should pwn with an excellent O-line and a lot of production. Booker and McKinnon are both valuable handcuffs/trade bait for their respective starters. Like orange is the new Black, could White be the new Dion i(4 TDs in only 7 games in 2015) n New England? A good looking bunch.

 

And the fun doesn’t stop there. Hopkins (3rd most receptions and 1,521 yards in 2015) was a monster in 2015, despite a poor QB situation, so should see a great 2016 with the upgrade to Osweiler. Mike Evans (1,206 yards, 3 TDs) is the easy number WR2 despite a slightly disappointing 2015 on TDs and will be the clear centre-piece for Tampa Bay. Choosing the WR3 between Brown (21st best WR in 2015), Shepard and Tate (34th best WR in 2015) is a nice problem to have. At least one should emerge as a clear starter by week 3.

 

Jordan Reed (952 yards, 11 TDs in 2015) will be an excellent starter at TE, with Kelce (875 yards, 5 TDs) a decent replacement if the usual injuries hit.

 

Final offensive prediction: 7-6 (5th place).

 

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

2015 record: 6-7 (4th)

 

I think the decent showing in 2015 and I can see the good times keeping on rolling …

 

While the Bortles (4th best QB in 2015, with 4,428 passing yards but 18 interceptions in 2015) hype train is starting to slow down, he should be a reliable starter each week and, some weeks, will be great. Fitz-magic can be swapped in when the match-ups favour the beardy man. Kaep won’t be worth starting, but nice to have him on your team as a point of principle.

 

The shrewd addition of fantasy expert love interest Derrick Henry adds some great depth to the RBs, to back up Murray (1,024 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs in 2015). One of them should be a good producer in 2016 and my money’s on Henry. Mark Ingram (1,174 yards, 6 TDs in 2015) is a solid starter and, with the lingering knee issues for Charles, Ware will be a great starter for the Chiefs. Don’t fancy Blue (39th best RB in 2015), Foster or Yeldon (26th best RB in 2015) to do much given their all in backfield timeshares, but hopefully won;t need to start them unless things get desperate.

 

This team is loaded with high to low range WR2s. Cobb (28th best WR in 2015, 829 rec yards) should have a better 2016 since he should draw less coverage. Funchess is a good shout to lead the Panthers in receiving yards, Baldwin (7th best WR in 2015 with 14 TDs!) is just brilliant and Aiken (944 yards, 5 TDs) should produce again in Baltimore. Rookie Will Fuller is a neat addition to the team. His draft report warned he has skinny legs though, so watch out for that I think? I don’t really understand the excitement about Maclin (1,088 yards, 8 TDs in 2015) given the Chiefs’ running game will have improved significantly from 2015, but I might be an outlier here.

 

Either Jared Cook or Julius Thomas should be fine TEs this season, but nothing special.

 

Final offensive prediction: 5-8 (7th place).

 

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

2015 record: 10-3 (3rd)

 

I love this team almost as much as the name. It’s not a Christmas movie though.

 

At QB, Manning (10th best QB in 2015), Mariota (22nd best QB in 2015, but only 12 games in 2015) and Stafford (9th best QB in 2015) are all viable starters in 2016. Mariota is especially valuable in the 4-point-per-passing TD format and Stafford will probably only get better without the pressure to keep Megatron involved.

 

The depth at RB is attractive, with Gurley (1,294 all-purpose yards, 10 TDs in 2015) and Charles as two clear RB1s. Langford (816 yards, 7 TDs in 2015) has the chance of remaining productive if the Bears can keep games close enough to run the ball. Christine Michael could be the leading rusher in Seattle at the end of the season, though we’ve heard the hype before. Smallwood and Drake are neat additions, though Miami and the Eagles might be offenses tto avoid in 2016.

 

This is a team with two WR1s – Brown (1,834 yards and 10 TDs in 2015) and Dez; two WR2s – Hilton (1,124 yards and 5 TDs in 2015) and Watkins (15th best WR despite playing only 13 games in 2015); and two WR3s – Hurns (14th best WR in 2015) and Lockett. Plus Pryor! Absolutely loaded. TE is fairly thin, with a bumfight between Bennett or Rodgers to start. Neither will be great in 2016 though.

 

Final offensive prediction: 12-1 (1st place). Probably not a surprise, but this is my team to dominate and take home the Owl.

DELO Ratings 2016

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Maybe you’re familiar with Elo ratings, but I’m going to assume you’re not. Arpad Elo was a Hungarian-born American physics professor who developed a ratings system, originally for chess but later applied to all sorts of sports, including American football, baseball and snooker. It’s now used frequently (in a variety of adapted versions) on fivethirtyeight.com to try to find the best team in history in various sports, amongst other things.

The idea is relatively simple, but the methodology is much more complicated. All competitors, be they individuals or teams, start with a ranking – often 1000 or 1500 – and each time they play they add on points or lose points, according to the result. That can just be a win/lose/draw based metric or it can get much more complex to try to account for home field advantage and scale of victory. If the team you beat is very good you score lots of points, if they’re not so good, fewer points. Likewise, lose a game and lose points based on the skill of the opposition – the better the opposition, the fewer points lost.

In order to try to compare eras, previous results from previous years/decades/whatever have to be removed in some manner so the rating only applies to the team of now and ensure they’re not getting false credit for performance too far in the past. Another adjustment 538 have mentioned they make is between seasons. In all sports, the team line-ups change one year to the next. In American sports, the system is set up to try to even the playing field, with the worst teams getting to draft players first. As this is supposed to be a return towards the middle, they adjust their rankings between seasons by reducing above average teams slightly and increasing below average teams slightly so that next season they all start a little closer together.

All this got me thinking, could we develop an Elo system for the Dynabowl? A DELO system, if you will. So I gave it a shot. I’m going to outline my methodology, share my results, and the provide a means to download my source spreadsheet so you (YES, YOU!) can see if you can improve on it.

The first problem I encountered was that Elo is specifically designed for situations where two teams are playing each other with the result changing a teams ranking. While that does occur in fantasy football, the teams aren’t directly influencing each other’s performance. If the top scoring team one week played the second top scoring team, it would be harsh to penalise the second team DELO points when they would have won any other game.

What i decided to do was look at a teams scored in comparison to the weekly average score achieved. If you beat the weekly average your rating goes up. If you drop below the weekly average your rating goes down. I also (pretty much arbitrarily) decided to exclude the top and bottom scores each week from the average. This was a gut based decision where I felt one or other of the numbers being an outlier could sway the overall average too much in one direction or the other so I felt it better to take the middle 8 scores and average them. This may be the wrong approach – I didn’t check it against an average of all 10 – but it’s the one I decided to take and I think I made a working system in the end. You may decide otherwise.

The next step to decide was how to calculate the points. I decided, again arbitrarily, to start every team with 1000 points. It felt like a high enough total that I could get some big enough variation, and it felt in keeping with the Elo rankings I’d seen produced elsewhere.

So how many points should get added on or taken away? The obvious answer is however many points above or below average the team scored that week. However, I needed to reflect the way Elo works. As I said, with Elo you get more credit for beating a good team than a bad team and so on. Here I thought that if a team has a lower DELO rating than average and scores well it should get ‘extra credit’, while a poor team scoring poorly shouldn’t be penalised as much as a good team performing badly.

This led me to produce a weighting spread. I said that if a team has a DELO between 950 and 1050 whatever their points difference from average gets added or subtracted at a rate of 100% (i.e. if you were 10 points above average you would get 10 points x 100% added to your DELO. If you start at 1000, your DELO would go up to 1010). The scale then was for every 100 points further away from this central spread you got credited with 10% more or less points. Another example: A team has a DELO of 800, falling in the 750-850 bracket. If this team scores 10 points above average, their DELO would go up by 10 x 120% = 12 points. However, if they scored 10 below average it would only go down by 10 x 80% = 8 points. So a bad team gets more credit for performing well than they lose for performing badly. And vice versa.

Finally, I decided I needed to perform the same between-season adjustment to bring teams back to closer to the 1000 starting point. At first I moved teams 10% closer, but then decided this wasn’t enough so moved it to 20%, which seemed to work. Again, it’s pretty arbitrary, but I’m trying to make a system that seems to represent team skill pretty accurately and this seemed to work. So what do I mean by moving teams 20% closer to 1000 points? I mean if a team had 1100 points at the end of the season, they would lose 100 x 20% = 20 points from their total and begin the next season at 1080. Each team would stay in the same order, but teams with a bigger lead over others would lose more points and the field would close up again, pending the next season’s battle commencement.

Now, I said finally, but there is a final, final step I made, but I applied this later, after I decided the system wasn’t working properly. Before that, I was still pretty happy, but I needed to leave it for a while and come back with a fresh mind. When I did, I decided that, despite the intra-season adjustment, not every team quite matched up by the end of the season to where their talent seemed to lie. I thought some more about 538’s Elo system for eras of sports and how they had to be removing old activity from the ranking to make sure they were appropriately evaluating the current team and I realised my rankings still included too much residual effect. I played around with some options until I found one that appeared to work.

I hit upon a formula which removed half the ranking points earned (or lost) in the same week of the previous year. Again, this feels arbitrary, but again it seems to reach the point where teams are fairly evaluated for their most recent performances. Specifically, their most recent season long performances (i.e. 16 games).

So what does all this show? Here’s a table:

2014 2015
Low Week High Week Final Low Week High Week Final
East Flanders Flahutes 754 16 998 2 754 724 6 799 1 760
Here Comes The Brees 873 16 1021 5 873 760 15 928 7 793
Tamworth Two 968 10 1100 6 976 926 5 1106 14 1087
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 739 14 953 1 782 836 7 922 14 856
Dynasore Losers 988 1 1185 12 1156 885 14 1149 3 905
DynaForOne Firebirds 907 4 1254 16 1254 1021 16 1255 1 1021
Dynablaster Bombermen 967 9 1041 12 1021 903 12 1065 4 997
Champions of the Sun 1000 6 1149 14 1144 1120 1 1395 16 1395
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 1040 1 1166 8 1161 1022 4 1121 14 1049
Dyna Hard 1005 2 1126 11 1086 1087 6 1280 14 1265

 

Remember, these scores essentially represent the the sum total of performance over the previous 16 weeks. They should kind of link to the total points scored, but when you scored them matters. Scoring a lot of points in a week when, overall, comparatively few points were scored will net you a lot more DELO ranking points than scoring them in a high scoring week. But sure, you could use points scored as a measure. But would that be a fair way of comparing teams across seasons? A high scoring team in a high scoring year may be less impressive than a slightly lower scoring team in a much lower scoring year. This accommodates for that.

And what’s the first thing it tells us? That Max’s winning team in 2015 was quite significantly better than Neil’s winning team in 2014, and even Dyna Hard in 2015 were better than Neil’s team. However, the context that needs to go with that is that Firebirds had a shocking start to 2014. In week 4 they had the second lowest DELO in the league (907), and they recovered from that point. They scored DELO 347 points from week 5 to week 16. Champions of the Sun, by comparison, scored only 198 across the same 12 weeks in 2015. So the Champions were more consistently good. They won 11 regular season games scoring over 3800 points in the process. The 2014 Firebirds, by comparison, snuck into the last playoff slot on the last week of the season with a 7-6 record, scoring 3480 points, before producing an incredible post-season. In fact, the 100 DELO points scored in week 16 is the greatest gain or loss by any team in any given week.

From this, perhaps we can say that the Firebirds produced the most dominant stretch, but for the season as a whole, Champions of the Sun were the better team.

Tune in next time for a breakdown of Offensive, Defensive and Special Teams DELO!

Access the file of data HERE!.

Guest Mock Draft by James ‘Goody’ Goodson of the Tamworth Two

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MOCK DRAFT! Get your MOCK DRAFT here! Roll up, roll up, ladies and gentlemen, see the astounding sights of the mock draft up close and personal (don’t worry, he won’t bite, but do keep your hands out of his cage…). Drum roll please, if you will, and introducing for your pleasure and delight, the mock draft stylings of Mr James ‘Goody’ Goodson.

Pick 1.01 and… The Sadness choose…
Ezekiel Elliot, RB.
Elliot will be the handcuff to Darren McFadden so taking the most pro-bowl likely RB makes sense. This means they’ll look at a franchise RB, and with Elliot they have a RB who does everything well. He’s in a tier on his own above everyone else on my board so he’s the 1st overall pick in this mock. They just hope DMC avoids getting injured so Elliot can secure RB1.

With pick 1.02 the Firebirds choose…
Corey Coleman, WR.
Another tough one as I think the Firebirds have better strength at WR than RB, but there is a real limited quality in long term value in RB, especially in this year’s draft. A dynasty franchise is set up around WR talent and Coleman pips Doctson. The latter being a better dynasty target as both Racist’s receivers are are expected to be FAs in 2017

With pick 1.03 the Dungeoneers pick..
Josh Doctson, WR.
As above, and if Doctson can bulk up I think he’ll be a very good solid receiver. He has good height and will offer good long term value offer excellent value

With pick 1.04 the Losers choose
Laquon Treadwell, WR.
Treadwell is my number 4 receiver, and I think David loves Treadwell. He’s a very good receiver. His tape shows off some fantastic competitive plays, from blocks to contested catches but, I just don’t think he is quite as good as Michael Thomas. While the Losers RB and WR depth is weighted towards the latter, a potential WR1 is too good to turn down in a dynasty league. He’s a good fit for the WR1 at the Vikings, usurping last year’s surprise package, Diggs as the season goes on. His lower speed won’t be an issue with Teddy’s noodle arm and short passes.

With pick 1.05 the Champions pick…
Michael Thomas, WR.
I love Thomas. I think Thomas could be better than Coleman, but he I think initially, he won’t be a viable fantasy option. He is great with contested catches and will be a nice addition to the Champions’ roster.

With pick 1.06 the Sadness choose…
Sterling Shepard, WR.
I love Sterling Shepard. He will be a legitimate WR 2 for the Giants and will be the perfect foil for OBJ. With the ability to play in the slot but underestimated outside, the best route runner in the draft will likely have a very high floor. The Sadness improve on their 2016 monopoly with an excellent safe pick.

With pick 1.07 Kelkowski pick…
Derrick Henry RB
While the landing spot of Henry won’t result in Kelkowski doing flips, the ability for him to take a lot of the possible red zone touches will be gratefully received at the Mahoney Memorial Stadium. While they haven’t replaced megatron, there is a clear dearth or top tier rookie relievers so this pick is a case of BPA. Don’t be surprised to see Kelkowski attempt to trade up a few spots.

With pick 1.08 The Sadness choose…
Kenneth Dixon, RB.
With Dixon joining Booker in, arguably, one of the best two landing spots, the Sadness make a sensible pick and choose my no. 2 RB.

With 1.09 The Firebirds select…
Devontae Booker, RB.
It’s a bit of a tough pick for the Firebirds. Booker allows them to secure the Denver running game, but doesn’t add much to their depleted RB personnel. They’ve already nabbed the best receiver on the ball and a great landing spot helps them take this pick with little fuss.

With 1.10 the Champions of the Sun pick…
CJ Prosise, RB.
This pick was to be either Prosise or Kenyan Drake of Miami. However I’m going for the upside that Prosise offers as Rawls may not be as fancied as previously thought. Procise can play all 3 downs, is a bit of a freak athlete and can be the receiver Rawls isn’t. 6th round Rawls can be cut with no cost next year at Seattle. 3rd Round Prosise makes sense here. Will Kenyan Drake hang around long enough for the Champions next pick?

With 2.01 The Sadness choose…
Tyler Boyd, WR.
Another freak athlete. With Sanu’s target to go around, the Sadness show can continue.

With 2.02 the Sadness pick…
Hunter Henry, TE.
The best Tight End in the draft who has been compared to Jason Witten. With this pick, the Sadness stockpile depth and take advantage of an ageing Walker on their roster and the expected slow break outs of Tight Ends. Don’t be surprised if the Sadness try to trade down to snag Jaded Goff as Qb is a need.

With 2.03 the Dungeoneers choose…
Paul Perkins, RB.
With a menagerie of backs in New York, Perkins is well suited to take the main carries off an ageing Jennings and a sub par back up committee. Music to the Dungeoneers ears as they have Jennings on their books.

With pick 2.04 The Losers choose…
Malcolm Mitchell, WR.
With superb character and a good landing spot to take on LaFells targets, the Losers pick up one of the safer rookie receivers in this draft who excels at route running, just what Brady likes.

With pick 2.05 the Firebirds choose…
Will Fuller, WR.
Surprised that Fuller fell so low in this draft, the Firebirds snag Houston’s deep ball threat. Fuller had one of the best yards after catch in college and could be a steal at 2.05

With pick 2.06 the Bombermen rock the boat and pick…
Jordan Howard, RB.
Strategically this may be a perfect pick. Langford was not impressive in Chicago with only 3.6 yards per carry and only forcing 7 missed tackles over the entire season. Now with a legitimate powerful back, the Bombermen stop their divisional rival getting stronger and improve upon their only decent RBs of Hill and David Johnson. Another option I was looking at, was Dynaharder trading up to 2.05 to grab Howard to avoid this situation.

At 2.07 Kelkowski pick…
Mike Thomas, WR
This is a great pick for Kelkowski. With very little competition in LA, and the natural ability for a spectacular catch, Thomas (the better Thomas in some people’s eyes) offers superb upside. With only gadget play specialist Tavon Austin to really offer any threat to targets, expect Thomas to perform above his expected pick to be a standout receiver.

At 2.08 Dyna Harder choose…
Wendall Smallwood, RB
With an ADP of 2.09 Wendall Smallwood is moving up boards. A natural runner with a lot of power, Dynaharder pick the Eagles’ Running back and trade with the Firebirds for Mathews to move down later in the draft. This is the best of a bad situation for Dynahard as they were relying on Howard hanging around until 2.08.

At 2.09 the TT choose…
Rashard Higgins, WR
The Cleveland WR graded out as one of the top receivers in 2014 by PFF and this fills a need of arguably the best team in the league who have no weaknesses.

At 2.10 Dynaharder pick…
Tajae Sharpe, WR.
Another well thought of receiver, Sharpe provides Dynaharder with some good depth in a great situation. With Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter only in front of him, Sharpe should get a good amount of targets as the year progresses.

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