Tag: Firebirds

The question everyone is talking about at the moment is who is going to win this year’s Dynabowl? When Bendy’s poll first appeared on MFL I excitedly scanned through all of the rosters (I do love a good poll) and determined that Max & Mike seemed the strongest. I plumped for Mike on the basis of Zeke, Hunt & Freeman at RB, and that was that, decision made and I could now move on with my life.

But no. That was not the case. My mind was now racing – have I made the right call? Have I given enough consideration to Defense, or Special Teams for that matter? I vowed that this unsubstantiated selection simply won’t do and I needed to look deeper in order to be truly happy with my selection. And so here I’ll run you through my results and determine once and for all who will win the 2018 Dynabowl. The results might just shock you to the core! (They won’t).

I wanted a simple method of deciding who had the strongest roster (and more importantly starting 22) so I decided to use positional rankings to determine who was strongest at each position and then use that to guess who is best overall. Once I started I quickly realised this was a pretty pointless exercise but I’m not one to abandon these kind of fruitless ventures so I ploughed on. I suppose it ultimately did give me and understanding of where everyone’s strengths and weaknesses lie, including my own, which may help in identifying potential trade opportunities. Which is good especially seen as I’m such a big trader! It also proved to be useful prep for the upcoming C’Bowl draft, which seen as my C’bowl record is currently second to none could be quite important.

Speaking of which I really need to improve my early round draft record in the C’Bowl. Here’s my first two pick in each of the 5 years I’ve been part of the league –

How fucking terrible is that!! Only 2 finished top 10 at their position (one of whom is Gronk! Duh!) and only 2 more top 20! I even picked Gurley when he was shit! No wonder I never make the playoffs. But look out this year as I’m now fully prepared to not repeat the mistakes I’ve made over and over for the last 5 years!

Where was I? Oh yes, Dynabowl rankings. We’ll start with the Offense as they are much more easily and reliably ranked. I used fantasypros consensus draft rankings to rank each position then used those classify each player as one of three categories –

stud – automatic plug in and play each week
starter – remainder of the top ranked players who would be a starter in our league, so top 10 QB’s, top 25 RB’s top 35 WR’s etc.
back up – double the number of starters

I’ve ignored everyone else who is rostered as they are either likely to development stashes or just guys you have a crush on and like to have around (hello 2016 Dynabowl winning QB El Jaguar!). So without any further ado let’s get into it…..

Quarterback

I simply ranked teams QB’s by the ranks of their no.1 as we only need to start 1. So T2 come out on top with A.A.Ron. According to the rankings there are 3 teams with no starter quality QB’s – Sadness, Bombermen & Losers, with the Losers barely scraping even a back up in Derek Carr. Although Bendy’s QB crew are all ranked 13-15 (nice grouping) you could easily see 1 of them breaking the top 10, or even 5. There will certainly be some selection headaches in the weeks to come!

Check out Pete’s QB’s!! Whooo boy he has the position nailed!! Surely a trade opportunity here Pete?

Running Back

Max and Bendy both have 2 studs at this crucial position so look well set but they are bettered by Mike with a group boasting 3 studs plus one extra starter! All those years of early picks are beginning to pay off! Slatz scrapes into playoff contention here with 1 stud backed up by 2 highly ranked starters.

Things don’t look great for me and Bean here with no studs and a few lowly ranked starters. Some attention is required here. Meanwhile Chris’s reliance on No.1 ranked RB Gurley (where were you in 2016??) and his strong WR corps is stark as he has only one other RB ranked inside the top 50, and that’s Kenyan Drake!

Wide Receiver

Max & Chris grade highest on WR’s with 2 studs and 2 starters each. I’ve put Max on top due to him having 2 in the top 4. Pete is very close also with 2 studs and 2 starters – all those early picks paying off again?!

My deficiency at WR is clear to see with only one starter rostered. Slatz is not too far ahead although his strategy of playing the long game with Josh Gordon could finally be about to pay off.

Tight End

Ian’s fifth table – how many of these do you think there are?

As with QB’s I’ve pretty much ranked TE’s by the no.1 on each roster as we mostly start only one. Neil and Max have the only 2 studs which puts them top of the pile (although Neil currently can’t afford Gronk – watch this space). Pete’s young TE’s – whilst exiting – look a little weak here and slatz doesn’t own a single TE ranked in the top 20!

Offense Summary

Overall Max looks to have the strongest offence grading in the top 3 in each position. A starting line-up of Brady, Bell, Cook, Ajayi, Hopkins, Julio, Tate, Sanders & Kelce should pile on the points week on week.

Mike isn’t far behind with the strongest group of RB’s and very good WR corps. QB looks to be his weakness although a Rivers / Goff combo is more than capable of delivering.

Pete & Goody/Mat also boast strong offenses with minimal weaknesses which should enable them to push for the payoffs this year.

And what of Chris? The Reigning champ is strong at WR but will it be enough to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere, especially RB after Gurley (Shakes fist at 2016 Gurley!)

At the other end of the scale my offense looks dire. The halcyon days of regular playoff appearances appear to be long gone with a long rebuild process required. Slatz is in a similar position although his RB’s are showing potential to develop into solid group.

Defence

So that’s the easy part done. Defence is a bit of a different story as there aren’t really the ranks available that represent the depth and scoring in our league to do the same exercise. After much research I decided the only way to do it was to come up with my own rankings! To do this I’ve blended together a combination of FFtoday rankings (as these seems the most representative of Dynabowl scoring and have enough depth) and MFL’s own player projections to create a hybrid IDP ranking which definitely provides an undisputable view of who has the strongest D! So 2 sets of bollocks rankings combined will surely provide a flawless outcome! That’s the theory (*sigh).

So how does this play out…..

Defensive Tackle

Malik Jackson is the no.1 ranked DT??! What??! Well that ridicules my ranking system straight away. What a waste of time!!!! Seen as it puts me as top ranked I’m going to plough on with this pointless exercise regardless. With Nose Tackle Damon Harrison also ranked as a starter (jesus what a load of shit) my strength at the position is secure. I think I’m possibly doing T2 a bit of a disservice putting them below me as their 2 solid starters are clearly the best DT combo in the league.

Pete and Chris have work to do at this position with no DT’s ranked as starters on their roster.

Defensive End

DE is clearly Bendy’s position of strength with 2 studs backed up by another starter. Max isn’t far behind as he also has 2 studs at the position. Pete & Chris also look to have a good amount of depth at the top of the rankings although maybe some lineup headaches to come. Once again I have the number ranked player at the position!

Neil sits at the bottom of the pile for DE’s with no starters on his roster and is the only team with a significant need at this positon.

Linebacker

He’s got to be running out of these soon, right?

Mike and Chris sit comfortably atop the LB rankings with 2 studs each plus at least 2 starters to round out their lineups each week. My group comes next with 1 stud plus a whopping 6 further starts to choose from (trade anyone?!).

Everyone has starters at this position (hard not to when there’s 40 of them!) but Max , Bendy & Pete are the 3 squads without any studs so sit at the bottom of the pile.

Safety

Now this where it starts to get silly. Both the rankings and stat projections are pretty much completely pointless when it comes to DB’s so drawing any sort of conclusion from this isn’t much use! Nevertheless here we are…..

Goody / Mat are locked in at Safety with 2 studs and a starter. Chris and Pete also look to be in a nice position.

Neil and Slate sit at the bottom with Slate boasting only one guy raked as a backup.

Cornerback

It’s the last one! I promise. 10. 10 of them!

This is just a random set of numbers so I’m not even going to bother commenting.

Defense Summary

What to make of that load of Shit?

Goody / Mat, Chris and me seem to have the strongest overall units. Goody / Mat have no real weak spots on D whilst Chris only has holes at DT and CB and we know how he loves to create work for Bendy by heavily streaming those positions. I think some dodgy rankings have bumped me up the list a little!

Max grades in the bottom half at each position besides DE so his strong offence will have to work hard to make up for his deficiencies in the D. Bendy is in a similar position although slightly above Max in most areas.

So who will win the 2018 Dynabowl???

To be hones after all that I’m none the wiser. Probably more confused even!! The way I see there’s a fairly clear split between who’s going to be challenging for the playoffs and who’s battling for that No.1 pick. The winner as usual will probably be decided by Kickers & Punters. So in no particular order –

Playoff contenders

East Flanders Dungeoneers – Strong on Offense with crazy QB’s depth, Not bad on D but LB and DT look to be issues.
Tamworth Two – No obvious are of weakness with a very balanced roster.
Dynasty of Sadness – Strong offence despite lack of obvious starter at QB and no major issues on D besides DE.
Champions of the Sun – Extremely strong offence but weak in several positions on D.
Dyna Hard – RB a real concern but defense looks strong besides DT & CB.

Fighting for No.1 Pick

Here Comes the Brees – a lack of real quality on offence will cost them, Defense looks solid.
Dynasore Losers – Still very much in rebuild mode, some signs of building nice young roster at RB & LB.
DynaForOne Firebirds – Neil’s roster is so thin there’s lots of work to do to make this a competitive squad. I still don’t know how he’s going to get under the cap!
Dynabalster Bombermen – A good offence for Bendy despite his selection headache at QB but Defense may not have enough.
Kelkowski Don’t Play by No Dyna Rules – Offense is truly awful in need of a complete rebuild! Not bad on D.

A Trade Retrospective

June 1, 2017

David Slater

Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

With another draft in the books, I thought it’d be interesting to take a retrospective look at some of the more complicated trades over recent seasons, and the domino effect of those trades, so I’ve picked out six that I think are more complicated and wide reaching, or involved big names in trades to see what sort of return they netted in the end. I’ve avoided some of the bigger seeming trades where minimal picks were involved (the TY Hilton trade for example) as they essentially come down to player valuation at the time, and focused on pick heavy trades – particularly where they involved further trading down the line. I’ve ranked them very unscientifically in order of blockbusteriness and interestingness.

Six

DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 3.02 & 5.02 and 2017 Round 5 Pick
Dynasty of Sadness – 2016 2.02

Two teams that will turn up pretty often in these trades in are the Sadness and the Firebirds, but I like this trade because while there’s a lot of multi-pick trades where team A moves up a few places in a high round at the cost of moving down more places in a later round this is a much simpler decision to pay to move up. So what does the trade value chart make of this? 2.02 is worth 1200 points while 3.02 (780) and 5.02 (480) combine to more points without the additional 5th rounder in 2017 (based on 6.05 this is worth 350). In total the Firebirds paid 1610 points, the equivalent of 1.06 in order to get this pick. Or should I say, get this pick back. Since he’d previously traded it to the Sadness in exchange for Markus Wheaton about a month before. So… Firebirds ended up giving up three picks, of decent value, in order to get back a pick he spent on Markus Wheaton (who’s scored a whopping 13.1 points for him since the trade), which seemed a reach for a guy who was only around the 40th best receiver the season before (although he did finish the previous season hot).

So what did the Firebirds end up with, aside from Wheaton, for this treasure trove – CJ Prosise. A handcuff to the Thomas Rawls, acquired in an earlier trade (1.09 spent on Devontae Booker and 2.05 which was traded on again and eventually spent on Kenyan Drake, and neither of which Neil originally started with, as I’ll cover later). Prosise looked reasonably good in limited action before his injury, and getting the handcuff to Rawls seems smart in retrospect given how much he’s struggled with injuries when he’s played and how unconvinced by him Seattle seemed to be last year. Sadly that might not be enough with Lacy now in town, the expensively acquired Prosise and Rawls could both be out of the picture, unless they get smart, team up and open a burger joint near CitiLink Field.

That’s just looking at the Firebirds side of the trade though, what happened to the picks the Sadness acquired. 3.02 was spent on Mike Thomas, sadly not the one in New Orleans. LA Rams receiver Mike Thomas has been considerably worse, with a total of only 6.2 points as a rookie. He may yet turn into a good receiver, but the Rams passing offence doesn’t seem any better than last year’s putrid edition, the Rams invested in more weapons for Goff that might see Thomas fall down the depth chart all together and right now he’s probably a candidate for the chop, only one year in. And speaking of the putrid Rams offence, 5.02 was spent on the source of the terrible smell – Jared Goff. I think we all know how that’s turned out so far. As for the 2017 5th rounder (5.04) – it’s turned into Ishmael Zamora, the dog-beater. There’s really no way to know how that pick turns out at this point, but unless the plan is to dress Thomas and Goff as dogs then I’m not sure Zamora will really end up being the important part of rescuing this trade for the Sadness.

I don’t think we can pick winners or losers on a lot of these, but if we were, I’d probably shade this one to Neil right now. It also highlights an interesting point – trading down and getting good value for a premium pick is a solid strategy, but you have to spend the picks wisely when you do, not on the Rams passing offence.

Five

Tamworth Two – Snead, Willie NOS WR, 2016 Round 1 Pick and 2017 Round 2 Pick
DynaForOne Firebirds – Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

So here’s a different sort of trade to the first – a player swap, with picks to make up the difference. This pick took place in season, so the final value of both picks wasn’t known at the point of trade, but one was for the current season and it was done at the deadline with T2 in the thick of the playoff battle, so I’d call it the 1.08 pick on average, rather than the usual 1.05 average that I’d use for a future pick, but the total value of the picks still comes to close to the 3rd overall pick. That’s a lot of value, but Thomas was a stud receiver at the time, number three overall in 2014 but struggling a little in 2015 – mostly because of Peyton Manning falling off a cliff and being unable to complete a pass over 10 yards. Those sorts of talents are generally going for double firsts, which suggests Snead – not unreasonably as he’d end up putting up nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie over only 9 games, a record for an undrafted player’s rookie season – was either valued at a first himself, or maybe that the Firebirds gave Thomas up slightly cheap.

In actual fact though this is a really savvy deal, Thomas’ struggles continued in 2016 and it’s hard to remember a receiver coming back from the sort of extended dip he’s struggled through and T2 have been left with a top six salary for a player who couldn’t crack the top 20 in 2016. Between the IRL big contract and the continued problems at QB for Denver it’s not unreasonable to suggest the struggles aren’t going away. As for Snead, he followed up his 984 yards and 3 TDs with 895 yards and 4 TDs, but over 16 games. That’s probably because of the emergence of Michael Thomas in the second half of the year and the presence of Cooks, with Cooks gone Snead could break out in a bigger role in 2017. And if nothing else, he’s been so much cheaper than Thomas for similar production, and is younger, so without the picks I’d be tempted to call Neil a winner here – despite Thomas having a proven ceiling considerably higher. However, put that aside, because the pick value removes any doubt. Even with the worst picks in the world Neil’s value on this trade is off the chart. Which is probably good as Neil spent the first rounder he received as part of the Rawls trade (along with 2.05 which ended up traded around until it became Kenyan Drake – told you it would come up again), which has worked out OK, but hasn’t produced the top ten stud RB he would have hoped given the price. The 2.05 pick that the 2017 pick also ended up traded, to the Sadness along with 2.04 (and was spent on James Conner), to get the 9th overall pick which was spent on Alvin Kamara. Given that the pick traded for Rawls ended up the same pick that then subsequently got traded in 2017 the best way to look at this is probably that it’s Thomas for Snead and Rawls. Even with Rawls disappointing 2016 and unconvincing position for 2017, I’d call Neil a clear winner on this one simply because I’m not convinced Thomas has a path back to being an elite receiver right now. A pattern is emerging, don’t fuck with Neil when it comes to trades.

Four

Dynasty of Sadness – Tate, Golden DET WR and 2016 Picks 3.01 & 5.01
Champions of the Sun – 2016 Picks 1.06 & 3.10

It wouldn’t be a trade review if these two didn’t show up in it somewhere trading picks. While a lot of their trades are the sort of up in one round down in another sort of trades I mentioned in the first trade I highlighted, this one is a little more straight-forward. This is a chunk of stuff given up by one team to get a high pick off the other. I picked this one here as it involves a player as a makeweight to trade up, unlike number six which was purely about picks or number five which was mostly about trading for a star.

Let’s start with the pick valuation and see what it values Tate as in terms of a pick. Champions are giving up 2220 points of value, while Sadness give up 1290, a difference of 930 which equates to somewhere roughly in the middle of 2.07 and 2.08. Given the valuations we’ve seen of Thomas, Snead and Landry, this is probably on the low side for Tate, who was coming off something of a breakout first year in Detroit and looking at a potentially bigger role with Megatron retiring. Even with him not being as young as any of those mentioned, it’s still less than was paid for Wheaton who was considerably less productive and with far greater downside. Initially then this looks like being advantage Champions.

Fortunately for the Sadness, they played a blinder with the big pick, nabbing Michael Thomas at 1.06 – a top receiver in his rookie season, and a big part (along with Elliot) of why the Sadness made a playoff run. With Cooks gone, he has an opportunity to take on an even bigger role in the next couple of seasons. The 3.10 pick was spent on Jordan Payton who’s delivered the square root of fuck all so far in Cleveland, but there’s time for that to change. Similarly the two picks given up by Sadness have gone on QB development prospect Paxton Lynch who’s shown little to nothing so far (though was not expected to deliver anything in 2016), and Washington RB non-event Keith Marshall as the Champions correctly didn’t trust Matt Jones, but wrongly pegged Marshall rather than Fat Rob Kelley as the solution.

Right now this trade essentially boils down to Tate for Thomas, and that’s a clear win for the Dynasty of Sadness.

Three

Dynasty of Sadness – Bryant, Dez DAL WR and 2017 Round 5 Pick
Dyna Hard – Morris, Alfred DAL RB and Diggs, Stefon MIN WR and 2016 Pick 1.08 and 2017 Round 1 Pick

OK, so as a one-off trade goes, this is probably the blockbusteriest trade so far in the Dynabowl, two firsts, Stefon Diggs and Alfred Morris for Dez Bryant and a make-weight future 5th. It’s like the Thomas trade, only with sprinkles on top (Morris, two firsts instead of a first and a second). Only here’s the thing, much like Thomas, Bryant comes with a huge price tag and was coming off a disappointing year – injuries rather than Peyton Manning being the limiting factor as he produced only 57 points. And much like Thomas, he failed to deliver in 2016 as well, an injury hit start hurting his total points and putting him out of the top twenty, but even his point per game return wouldn’t have been enough for a top ten finish. As for Diggs – he wasn’t as electric as Snead in his rookie year, but he showed flashes and attracted interest off the taxi squad. Much like Snead, he’s not a better player than the one he’s been traded for… yet. But he’s in a position to succeed, as a key part of his offence, and you’d rather be buying stock in Snead/Diggs right now than in Bryant or Thomas (though I’d favour Bryant over Thomas as a comeback candidate, because the Cowboys are better at QB right now and because Bryant’s been hurt rather than just bad).

Morris is mostly irrelevant to this trade, but he had a relatively unfriendly salary for a handcuff to the Sadness’ presumptive number one Elliot, so it was a worthwhile addition with cap space spare.

As for the picks – the 2016 1.08 was used on Kenneth Dixon, who’s sometimes looked good, but failed to really cement himself as the Baltimore lead running back as yet, unless he does this seems like a lost pick. The 2017 pick was traded back twice, to 1.08 with the Brees, then 2.01 with the Dungeoneers, netting a fifth rounder (subsequently traded down to move up from 2.04 to 2.02) and to move up 5 places in the 4th. The final landing spot at 2.01 was used on Kareem Hunt. Hunt has talent and if either he or Dixon end up as a number one back and a good RB1/2 to complement Elliot as the Sadness’ stud then they’re clear winners here. Similarly if Diggs develops into a good receiver at a WR2 sort of level, while Bryant fails to become a clear WR1 again, then you’d have to call the Sadness winners here, however if Dixon and Hunt end up in RBBC situations, and Diggs never really breaks out of the WR3/Flex level he was in his second year, then it’s probably going to favour Dyna Hard as I just don’t think Bryant is done yet, and even as an overpaid WR2 he still offers more than three at-best flex level players. All in all there’s a lot of ifs around this, and it could easily go either way still, so I think it’s fair to move on without declaring a clear winner.

Two

Dynasore Losers – 2016 1.04 to Firebirds; 2016 3.04 and 2017 Round 1 Pick to Tamworth Two
DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 4.02 and 2017 Round 1 Pick
Tamworth Two – Landry, Jarvis MIA WR and 2016 3.09

There’s two different trades here, but ultimately the two go together as the Losers deal with the Firebirds was an attempt to recoup the 2017 first rounder lost in the deal for Landry as the 2017 draft seemed a lot stronger than the 2016 one did. So how did this all shake out?

The Firebirds gave up a pick valued in advance at 1.05, but which ultimately became 1.04, the same pick given up to get Landry, while the 2017 first became 1.02. As such the Losers didn’t lose spots in the draft as they ended up trading away their 2016 1.04 for what became the 2017 1.04, but because they ended up losing their own 1.02 and gaining the Firebirds 1.04 they did actually lose two spots. Still following? Good.

The Firebirds pick became Corey Coleman. So far he’s been better than Doctson and Treadwell, taken ahead of him, but worse than Shepherd and Michael Thomas who were taken after him. With only 60 points in his rookie season he’s a long way from being worth the first rounder given up to get him yet, but receivers do sometimes take time, and the Browns have a terrifyingly bad QB situation, so there’s still hope for him as that potentially improves.

The two picks the Firebirds gave up to get Coleman became Christian McCaffrey and Deion Jones. Right now there’s no two ways about this, Jones looks like a stud, scoring nearly 80 more points than Coleman in his rookie year as the top point scorer among (drafted) defensive rookies, and the 4th highest (drafted) rookie scorer (non-QB) in his class. Obviously, that’s only one season, but that’s all we have for both players so far.

As for the second half of the trade, the first given up on Landry was spent on Corey Davis. This worked out pretty well for both sides, with the Losers getting McCaffrey at #4 from their own trade into 2017 (who they would have taken at #2 anyway, given the need at RB) and T2 moving ahead of the Brees who had hoped to snag Davis at #3. It’s impossible to evaluate this up front, as Davis has yet to appear in an NFL game, but who wins that trade in the long run comes down to whether Landry or Davis ends up being the better receiver. As for the exchange of thirds… Rashard Higgins has produced little to nothing so far for T2, but does have great hair and plenty of time to come good (hopefully not a sign of things to come from Davis for them) while the 3.09 pick that went the other way was used in a package with Charles Sims to nab two picks from the Brees which were spent on DeAndre Washington and Adolphus Washington, if DeAndre Washington ends up a starter in Oakland then this part of the deal certainly favours the Losers, but that’s a big if with Beast Mode coming home to Oakland and looking to be the feature back for them. Adolphus may or may not do anything in the long run, it’s simply too early to say. If none of these three develop into viable fantasy options, then it will literally come down to the two receivers. While that’s certainly true when it comes to the long-term evaluation of the trade, it’s also fair to say that just on a fundamental level it’s almost always going to be better in a trade to get a young receiver with proven production rather than trading for a pick to draft one, no matter how highly they’re regarded – especially when that trade is for an unknown draft pick in the subsequent year’s draft.

The net of this three way trade is that the Losers bagged Christian McCaffrey, Deion Jones, Jarvis Landry and DeAndre Washington. T2 netted Corey Davis and Rashard Higgins while the Firebirds got Corey Coleman. A lot depends on how Coleman and Davis do over the next two or three years, but it’s fair to say that if McCaffrey is a bust the Losers have at worst got a pair of quality starters and for either T2 or the Firebirds to feel happy about their parts in this deal they’ll need their own high pick receivers to out-perform Landry at a minimum. It seems fair to say at this point though that the big loser looks to be the Firebirds, who’s Jedi trade tricks fail to work a third time as McCaffrey and Jones for Coleman seems heavily weighted in favour of the Losers, regardless of how Landry for Davis works out.

One

Here Comes The Brees – 2016 Picks 1.05 & 1.06 to Champions of the Sun; Donald, Aaron STL DT to Dynablaster Bombermen
Champions of the Sun – Robinson, Allen JAC WR
Dynablaster Bombermen – 2016 Round 1 & 4 Draft Picks and 2017 Round 1 Pick

Much like the previous example this is a three way trade essentially, but this with the Brees at the centre of it. In one sense the Brees gave up Donald to get Robinson, and got a 4th out of it but it’s a touch more complicated than that. Basically the Brees picked up a pair of firsts, spending the first of them, along with their own 2016 pick to get Allen Robinson. That’s not out of line with the prices paid for Bryant and Thomas, without giving up a young receiver in return. However that wrongly puts Thomas and Bryant (established studs with better seasons) on a par with Robinson who had one good season off the back of a high number of TD scores. Where Thomas and Bryant struggled to recapture their best form, which is probably what put them on the market, Robinson’s 2016 fall feels more like gravity pulling him back down (although he dropped further than I would have expected and should bounce back some in 2017). There’s arguments both ways on this as Robinson is also younger, had a decent seeming offence in place and had a season on the cheap before a massive extension would be due, however it was a massive pay rise as he jumped into the top tier of receivers, unlike Landry (who also commanded a first plus trade price) who finished just shy of a top tier extension cost. Ultimately, double firsts (and better ones than were paid for Bryant / Thomas) seems an slight overpay, just because Thomas and Landry didn’t quite stretch to double firsts, and I just don’t think he was established as a top tier player like Bryant and Thomas were, but it’s certainly not an indefensible one.

Meanwhile, Champions spent the 1.05 on Sterling Shepherd and traded away the 1.06 in the previously discussed Tate / Michael Thomas trade. So instead of picking Thomas and Shepherd and being clear winners in this trade they’ve ended up trading away a potential stud for a pair of at-best WR2s. That seems like a push at the moment, and will most likely come down to whether or not Robinson delivers WR1 value. If he doesn’t, his extension cost will mean the value pairing of Tate and Shepherd win out, but Shepherd’s ceiling is low with an in-decline Eli and a much-better Odell Beckham limiting his value to somewhere in the region of a WR3 and Tate looked poor for most of last year as Detroit struggled offensively so there’s plenty of scope for both sides to come away feeling unhappy about this, especially with what could have been for the Champions with Thomas.

And that brings us to the other side of this deal. While the Brees co-managers sit there wondering if they’re going to be stuck with a massively overpaid disappointment in Robinson, the Bombermen get Aaron Donald – outscoring all receivers and all other defensive players in both 2015 and 2016. I call that a win at almost any price. The two firsts the Bombermen gave up – 1.05 in 2016 and 1.08 in 2017 have gone on receivers, partly on Robinson as discussed and on Jon Ross (via a small trade up from 8 to 7), but realistically unless you end up with two WR1s out of that, then it’s hard to call it anything other than a loss, especially considering the massive salary differential between top tier receivers and a top DT (even after the Suh deal this summer). There is a light at the end of this tunnel though, and it might not even be a train. The Rams might be changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme with Jeff Fisher and Greg Williams being shown the door. If Donald ends up moved from DT to DE his point-scoring will drop significantly (just look at Kerry Hyder’s points in 2016’s league and in 2017’s following re-classification, they’ve virtually halved), and his extension cost will sky-rocket, if that happens then what looked like a rock solid win for the Bombermen becomes much, much more debatable. Ultimately it’ll still come down to how Robinson bounces back, and whether Ross is any sort of success, but they go from needing to find two top five receivers to maybe one top 10 receiver and a solid WR2. The 4th round pick in this trade I’ve mostly ignored so far, but for posterity’s sake it was spent on Braxton Miller, so it deserved to be ignored.

As a result then I’d say that while the Champions / Brees part of the trade is fairly even (with the Brees having the better potential to come out on top), the Brees are very much on the downside of the overall trade, swapping a defensive player who out-performs even the top receivers (for less money) for a player who isn’t a top receiver. While keeping to the cap doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Brees management as yet and maybe ameliorates some of that downside, it does still limit their ability to compete for the top free agents, or extend some useful players. It’s also fair to say that both the Brees and Champions GMs should feel more than a little bit rueful, as in both cases they had a chance to get both Shepherd and Thomas with those 1.05 and 1.06 picks and both teams would be in a better position if they’d just stopped after the first trade and used the picks they’d garnered.

Addendum There’s two teams not included in this write-up at all. That’s nothing against those teams, it’s just that I mostly found their trades fell into the ‘player-heavy’ category or the two picks for two picks category. The Dungeoneers did get a mention in one of the write-ups and pulled off some nice business, fleecing the Firebirds into giving up anything for Ryan Tannehill, the Bombermen into giving up good players for bad ones in the Carlos Hyde trade and getting the 1.02 pick for fat Eddie Lacy which they used on Amari Cooper (then wasted their own 1.03 on Kevin White, so that feels like a push to me). While that seems like a list of wins, they also overpaid the Brees for Keenan Allen’s one game a year and got absolutely destroyed by Kelkowski (the other team not mentioned) when they traded away Doug Baldwin for Stevie Johnson (oops). Kelkowski’s trades are mostly terribly dull and involve buying or selling expiring contracts at the trade deadline for 6th and 7th round picks.

2017 Free Agency Review: Tim

April 11, 2017

Max Cubberley

Free Agency No Comments

Kelkowski

Drew Brees (NOS, QB) – $35, 1 year
Brandon Coleman (NOS, WR) – $1, 1 year
Rishard Matthews (TEN, WR) – $17, 4 years
Terrelle Pryor (WAS, WR) – $25, 3 years
Eric Decker (NYJ, WR) – $20, 2 years
Gary Barnidge (CLE, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dennis Pitta (BAL, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dont’a Hightower (NEP, LB) – $8, 4 years
Nick Perry (GBP, LB) – $4, 4 years
AJ Bouye (JAC, CB) – $3, 3 years

If there was one team that you should really look at all the small deals for it’s Kelkowski as they seem to have half the league on $1, 1 year deals. They did make a few splashes in free agency though with big money going on Brees, Pryor, Decker and Matthews. This year could be the year that Brees drops off the cliff but if it isn’t Kelkowski have addressed one of their big areas of need for at least one season and the short term nature of the deal obviously minimises the risk. With three mid-priced WRs added to the team it’s apparent where else Kelkowski thought they needed to strengthen and, to be fair, if they hadn’t they’d have been relying on Randall Cobb and Will Fuller for the entirety of 2017. All three deals are for guys who seem to now be the number 1 option on their team but there is uncertainty about the standing of both Decker and Matthews in the depth chart so time will tell. Barnidge and Pitta are both notable cheap deals. Each has their question marks but both could end the season as solid TE1s and for deals with no risk attached that’s good business.

On the defensive side of the ball I like the Hightower deal as he could be a top tier linebacker if his health would ever let him. At $8 that’s a risk worth taking. Perry is also a good bet at that price. He may disappear back to obscurity but it’s no big loss if he does and he showed his ceiling last season. With AJ Bouye you’re paying for his 2016 season and now that he’s in a new team I would have no faith in him to produce again. For $3 though who cares?

Dynablaster Bombermen

Chris Thompson (WAS, RB) – $6, 3 years
DeSean Jackson (TBB, WR) – $12, 3 years
Michael Crabtree (OAK, WR) – $24, 3 years
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, WR) – $8, 2 years
Cameron Wake (MIA, DE) – $11, 2 years
Yannick Ngakoue (JAX, DE) – $14, 5 years
Chandler Jones (ARI, LB) – $30, 4 years
Zach Brown (WAS, LB) – $13, 5 years
Eric Weddle (BAL, S) – $2, 3 years

Benjamin Hendy was a busy man in the off-season and the Bombermen have gone hard at the free agent market, preparing themselves for a big push for the Owl in 2017. On offence the monster move is Michael Crabtree and it looks like a good one. The money is not to be sniffed at but you’re talking about paying Crabtree like a WR3. He was that in 2015 and was a top-end WR2 in 2016 so unless you think he’s going to take a step back in 2017 then he looks a safe investment. The Raiders could draft a WR and impinge on his value somewhat but with so many problems on their defence it would be a surprise. DeSean Jackson is even better value at $12. Sure, he’s boom-bust but that is a pittance for a player who will win your matchup for you some weeks. He’s the second target to Mike Evans in Tampa but Jackson is not a player who needs high volume to get it done and the B-Men won’t be relying on him as anything more than a WR3 at best. Fitzgerald is a solid pick-up, his ceiling is low but his floor is high. Chris Thompson is a bit of a lottery ticket and the price looks a dollar or two high for me but he was the most competent of Washington’s backs last season so he’s worth a look.

I’m less enamoured of the defensive moves the Bombermen have made, however. Ngakoue’s price is defensible, if not cheap, but the length of the contract represents a risk to me as he’s much more likely to underperform than overperform at that money. Zach Brown too is being paid quite a lot based on one season of production in a different team. Cameron Wake’s deal sits in the middle, not bad value for a guy who can top-score when he’s on form, but he’s getting old now and has injury concerns. I would rather have had Robert Quinn at $8 than Wake at $11, personally. Coming back to the good end of the spectrum though we have Chandler Jones at $30 (expensive but he is a tippy-top linebacker) and Eric Weddle (a very steady S1/2 for a good price). One thing I absolutely cannot fault Hendy on though is the aggressive way he has moved to fill his needs. The Bombermen don’t have much by the way of draft picks this season so he needed to get his team in shape to challenge by the end of this window and, putting aside an overpay or two, it looks like mission accomplished.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Dak Prescott (DAL, QB) – $29, 4 years
LeGarrette Blount (FA, RB) – $16, 2 years
Jonathan Stewart (CAR, RB) – $8, 2 years
Adam Thielen (MIN, WR) – $14, 3 years
Kenny Stills (MIA, WR) – $9, 3 years
Jared Cook (OAK, TE) – $10, 3 years
Nick Fairley (NOS, DT) – $25, 3 years

Let’s start here with the good stuff. Neil Hawke’s running backs were less a stable than a rotten manger and some action was definitely required. There is a lot of talk of Carolina being the landing spot for Leonard Fournette in the draft but until that speculation bears fruit then Jonathan Stewart is the main man there and $8 looks good value. Even if he ends up in a committee or as a handcuff it’s not a terrible deal. LeGarrette Blount, on the other hand, does look like one. Yet to find a team, Blount’s value was entirely tied to his position in New England and if he doesn’t end up back there then the chances of him being worth that money are remote. At least it’s only a short deal. Kenny Stills isn’t bad value at $9, he could easily prove to be Miami’s second threat behind Jarvis Landry this season and their main deep option so he has a good shot to outperform that figure. I can only assume that Neil has mistaken Adam Thielen for someone else. The #33 WR in 2016, Thielen scored a quarter of his points in one week and seemed to end up as a target for the Vikings by accident. I can’t help but feel that money could have been better invested somewhere else. Jared Cook has landed in a good spot in Oakland but $10 is a big overpay for a player who has promised much throughout his career but delivered little. He was the #40 TE last season due to injury and whilst he flashed when fit I don’t know how much competition the Birds would have had for him at $5, let alone $10. Dak Prescott is just nuts. In a league where QBs are ten a penny Prescott should maybe be earning half what he is. Last season he finished 6th, sure, but the question is one of repeatability. To my mind you need to see a QB have more than 1 season performing like that before you pay him like he’s worth it.

On defence the only significant move that the Firebirds made was the addition of Nick Fairley to play alongside Geno Atkins at DT. Unfortunately this is another huge overpay in my opinion. Fairley is a player with a history of playing well for one season then dropping off the radar and he has just scored elite money in the Dynabowl. There are very few DTs in the league who are worth paying over $20 for and Nick Fairley isn’t one of them. Trust me, I own another of them.

Champions of the Sun

Ryan Tannehill (MIA, QB) – $7, 3 years
Danny Woodhead (BAL, RB) – $10, 2 years
Jack Doyle (IND, TE) – $8, 2 years
Mario Addisson (CAR, DE) – $3, 3 years
Kiko Alonso (MIA, LB) – $5, 3 years
TJ Ward (DEN, S) – $3, 3 years
Reshad Jones (MIA, S) – $11, 4 years

The Champions of the Sun were always light at QB behind Big Ben and while Tannehill is at a decent price the inconsistency of performance he has shown across the years does not inspire confidence as a primary backup. GM Max Cubberley is likely counting on QB Whisperer Adam Gase working his magic but if Paxton Lynch doesn’t become a viable QB 2 in Denver then he may find himself light on options. Danny Woodhead seems like good RB depth, something the Champions need. He is in a new scheme and has question marks over age and injury but he has shown an RB1/2 ceiling in the past and, at that price, if he can be a decent RB3 there will be no complaints. The only other offensive move outside some RB flyers was Jack Doyle, the Indianapolis Tight End. He currently heads the depth chart with both a QB and a scheme that are TE-friendly and so this seems like decent value even if he isn’t the most explosive or exciting of players. Indianapolis may end up drafting a TE to replace him but it’s rare for rookie TEs to be a factor in their first year so the Champions should see at least one year of decent production from Doyle.

There wasn’t much money to throw around at Paddy’s Pub for free agents with a new deal for Khalil Mack on the horizon but the biggest chunk of change went to Reshad Jones. $11 puts him in the elite bracket of safeties in terms of pay but it seems reasonably safe. Jones has not changed scheme or team and in Miami he was the #1 safety (total points) in 2015 and the #2 safety (points per week) in 2016. Paying premium money for a player is always a risk but Jones would seem to have a good shot of being a top 5 at his position every year, health allowing. The other main moves on defence were reasonably small fry. Amidst a whole host of $1 safeties and corners, Cubberley forked out $3 for TJ Ward. Ward is a solid option, unlikely to trouble the top of the safety rankings but fine to serve as a #2 or #3 to Jones. Kiko Alonso could be a steal at $5 (#22 LB in 2016) although concerns about him being shifted about in Miami’s scheme as well as his ever-present injury problems could just as easily sink him. Mario Addison is a deal similar to Akiem Hicks for the Sadness. A player who seemed to step up from mediocrity last season but whose role in the team for 2017 seems to be the same. Maybe he’ll drop back to obscurity but he just got paid like a starter in Carolina and if he can be a solid DE2 again then it’s a good deal.

DynaHard

Adrian Peterson (FA, RB) – $14, 1 year
Latavius Murray (MIN, RB) – $26, 3 years
Eddy Lacy (SEA, RB) – $18, 3 years
Marshawn Lynch (OAK, RB) – $2, 1 year
Frank Gore (IND, RB) – $9, 1 year
Mike Wallace (BAL, WR) – $10, 2 years
Mohammed Sanu (ATL, WR) – $2, 3 years
Tavon Austin (LAR, WR) – $3, 3 years
Kenny Britt (CLE, WR) – $5, 1 year
Antonio Gates (SDC, TE) – $5, 1 year
Calais Campbell (JAX, DE) – $24, 1 year
Thomas Davis (CAR, LB) – $9, 1 year
Ryan Kerrigan (WAS, LB) – $11, 1 year

DynaHard GM Chris Braithwaite certainly appears to have carried his in-season waiver wire form into the off-season with a large number of players signed. This scattershot approach seems to have largely swept up shit players, old players or shit, old players but if Chris hits on 25% of these tickets then he will be happy enough. Where else to start but with the running backs where Braithwaite’s exasperation with Todd Gurley could not be evidenced more keenly than by giving Eddy Lacy $18. By all accounts even fatter than last season, Lacy goes into a crowded and uncertain Seattle backfield. It’s a lot of money to put on a player with a history of not getting in (or staying in) good shape. $26 Latavius Murray has moved to just about the worst place for a running back in the league and this is a player who was massively touchdown dependent behind one of the best O-lines in the league. I’d also slam the signing of Frank Gore except with Indianapolis, who knows? They’re crying out for a new RB there but then that was the case last season too and they didn’t get one so maybe they’ll go back to the well of Gore one more year. Peterson and Lynch are both much better deals. Although AP doesn’t have a team yet I don’t expect that to last and he should be at least a goal-line back wherever he lands which offers decent value. Lynch was a gamble when Chris signed him (being retired as he was) but all the signs now point to him being at least Oakland’s short-yardage back for the coming season which, even sharing the load with Jalen Richard and Deandre Washington, has value. Just ask Latavius Murray.

DynaHard also added some mediocre to terrible wide receivers to their options too. Tavon Austin hasn’t done it up to this point and doesn’t look like he’s about to start now, Kenny Britt is wince-inducing bye week cover at best and Mohammed Sanu can probably be relied upon for 3 or 4 points most weeks which is something I suppose. Mike Wallace is the only one of the bunch that has much upside but a lot will depend on Baltimore’s draft moves there. Overall I like this bunch a whole lot more than the RBs, mostly because they’re all cheap deals. Yeah, they’re pretty terrible players but if one of them is a usable WR3 then it’s a decent result. Antonio Gates is a move I like better. A cheap deal for a guy who should still end the season as a good TE2 at least. Gates will be solid bye-week and injury cover at least, if not more.

Chris was pretty set on defence, having one of the best units in the league, and his tinkering around the edges here are all decent business. In Arizona Calais Campbell was hit and miss but usually ended the season on the cusp of DE1 at least. In Jacksonville you have to think he’ll play more than two-thirds of the defensive snaps so the floor of his production goes up and hopefully his 30+ point ceiling remains intact. For all that, he did just sign an FA deal with Jacksonville so he’ll probably score about 17 points over the season and spend most of it on the beach. Thomas Davis and Ryan Kerrigan are both good LB pick-ups. They each have LB1 ceilings if they have a good season (though the chances of Davis doing that at his age are diminished) and add good depth to the team.

That’s it for my 2017 free agency review. If you got this far then thanks for reading and if you have any thoughts or comments feel free to post them here on the huddle but please bear in mind I couldn’t give a shit what you think.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 6

October 21, 2016

Max Cubberley

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

Better late than never! Or maybe not. I’ll leave that up to you. In week 4 I took a look at every team’s offensive performance so far in 2016 and compared it to their 2015 performance to look for improvement and decline. This week I’ll be doing the same with the defense. To the stats!

	2016 Week 1-6 Average vs 2015 Average
	Dungeoneers	Brees	T2	Sadness	Losers	Champions	Firebirds	Kelkowski	Hard	Bombermen
DT/DE	-6.31	4.90	-8.94	1.80	-3.83	4.10	1.40	7.85	-5.02	-2.05
LB	-0.29	8.69	3.39	-3.05	7.57	-4.63	3.14	-6.71	-1.17	3.46
CB/S	4.13	2.63	3.08	-9.36	-3.03	-9.20	5.86	-3.58	7.45	-1.51
DEF	-2.46	16.22	-2.47	-10.61	0.71	-9.73	10.39	-2.44	1.26	-0.10

Defensive Line

Winners: Kelkowski are crushing it on the D-line this year! Nearly 8 points up on 2015! Look a bit deeper though and it has, perhaps, some of the qualities of a mirage. Firstly, JPP and friends are averaging 22.67 points per game, slightly above average for the D-line. It’s an improvement but it’s a movement from bottom of the pile to mid-table obscurity. Secondly, that average is propped up by a massive 63 points in week 3 when the ghost of Malik Jackson briefly turned up to spook Ebeneezer Kelkowski. Across the other 5 weeks they average 14.6 points, a number better only than Pete’s damp paper bag of a D-line. Despite losing Aaron Donald, the Brees are functioning better than last season too. Part of this is due to replacing the best DT in fantasy football with the second best in Fletcher Cox but Michael Bennett and Cameron Jordan are both solid producers too.

Losers: Oh T2, we knew thee well. After triumphing in the “underwhelming running back” stakes last time out, Goody and Mat show us that they can disappoint on both sides of the ball. Some of this decline is due to missing pieces (Gerald McCoy and Chandler Jones have been absent much or all of the year) but I think we see an impact of the scoring changes here. T2 hit big on Kawann Short and Gerald McCoy last season and DTs are probably the group to take the biggest hit from the downgrading of big plays. Both have scored very well but those 40 point games should be gone now for the most part. A lot of last year’s big DT scorers have done worse through the start of 2016. The Dungeoneers d-line is also down 6 points but I don’t think I can kick Pete anymore so let’s leave it at that.

Linebackers

Winners: There are two clear winners in this category, the Brees and the Losers. Both units were very poor last season so, like Kelkowski’s D-Line, this improvement puts them in the middle of the pack rather than raising them to the top of the charts. Slatz invested in the position in free agency and the draft with Paul Posluszny and Markus Golden delivering and Deion Jones and Leonard Floyd looking strong through the start of their rookie seasons. The Brees, meanwhile, seem to have gone for the “2015 Josh Norman” effect and just picked up a player from waivers having a monster season in Lorenzo Alexander. 51 of the 99 points they’ve scored at LB in the last three weeks have been from him. Improved play from Will Compton and Shaq Barrett is helping but to maintain this improvement they need Alexander to continue playing out of his skin.

Losers: What would Max Cubberley say if you asked him about the decline of his linebackers (4.5 points down on last season). He’d tell you that they’re still scoring more than anybody else’s linebackers so you can go fuck yourself. He’d probably also whinge on about injuries and players moving position but lets not give him a platform. Kelkowski’s overall defensive decline continues here with their linebackers regressing the most out of all the teams (6.7 points down on last season). Their situation is the reverse of the Losers’ and the Brees’. Kelkowski’s LBs were among the best in the business last season and this year they’re just… average. D’Qwell Jackson and Brandon Marshall are the main culprits here and Stephone Anthony’s reduced playing time at strong side LB for the Saints leaves them short a little bit of depth. Zach Orr is a good wire pickup though who should be able to compensate for that.

Defensive Backs

Winners: Yuk. Defensive back analysis. Well, Dyna Hard and the firebirds are both doing better this season than last. Rodney McLeod was a great pick-up for Chris and Aqib Talib’s 3 INTs so far this year certainly don’t hurt. Chris’ DBs are comfortably the highest scoring in the league so far this season and his main problem now is the potential for PLOBbage. With 43 cornerbacks to choose from on any given week, it’s no wonder that Neil is doing well but the PLOBbage is real here. Trying to predict S and (particularly) CB scoring week on week is far from easy and although Neil has done a good job it must be frustrating to look at your bench every week and see the road not taken.

Losers: The Sadness and the Champions both show an equal decline at the DB spot. For Cubberley the situation is similar to his LBs. Despite losing 9 points a game on 2015 the Champions still have the third highest scoring set of DBs in the league so this decline is as much a result of an outlying season of success as anything else. With Reshad Jones gone for the season now though Maxxxxxx will have to look deep into the waiver wire to try to maintain the pace. The Sadness, on the other hand, are, by nearly 6 points per game, the worst secondary in the Dbowl. Their decline is from mediocrity to abject failure. Looking at the scores of his players for the year to date though you wouldn’t think you were looking at a secondary so adrift from the rest of the field. To be honest, they’ve scored from disappointing to average every week rather than terribly and this slump is really a result of having no big weeks so far. A couple of INTs this week could see them pick up and return closer to the average. DBs, eh? It’s a funny old game.

Defence

Winners: Although his DB improvement is the best, Neil has improved across the board on defence this season, scoring over 10 points more than last year per game. At 86.20 points per game, his group is the best in the Dbowl at the moment but the week on week stats show a sharp decline. In weeks 1-3 the Birds averaged 108 points per game on D. In weeks 4-6 that number fell to 64 points per game. He’s had big pieces on bye in each of those weeks but it’s something to keep an eye on. If I was Neil I would be moving to address the obvious gap at DE in his roster. Maybe drop a CB or two to make ro… who am I kidding, he’s never going to drop any CBs. If you think improving by 10 points is impressive, though, look at the Brees! A 16 point increase! That takes them to averaging 76 points per game which is… wait… it’s bang average. Putting aside Pete’s crepe paper D (sorry Pete) the Brees were about that far adrift of everyone else last season. Really, it would have been more impressive to be so bad two seasons in a row.

Losers: Let’s just check in with Max Cubberley on what he thinks about his defence averaging 10 points fewer than last season. “Go fuck yourself!” Thought so. The Champions are still the second best scoring defence but last week was a low outing from them and this week’s lineup has a few too many waiver wire pickups for my liking. We’re not too far off a week where Cubberley starts 4 Texans’ linebackers and that can’t be good for anyone. The Sadness are the other team to have lost 10 points off their average. Most of that is their secondary, as discussed, though and there is some cause for optimism that those numbers could improve over the season. Despite Linval Joseph’s monster season so far the Sadness only show a 2 point improvement on the D-Line though and there is room for improvement here. Mangboob’s DEs are not inspiring and a little trade magic could really help him to improve those numbers and make a playoff push in Peter.

Overall

Winners: It will come as no surprise to anyone that the Bombermen are the big improvement on last season, averaging 24 points more per game than last season’s disappointing results. You’ll have seen that they were conspicuous by their absence in today’s report and, indeed, their defence is operating at a 0.1 loss on last year. All of this is offensive improvement and it looks like it has the legs to go all season. The Sadness are the other big improvement, nearly 15 points up on last year. This is despite giving 10 points away per game from their receivers and it shows the difference that a certified stud like Zeke Elliot can make.

Losers: Last season’s hot ticket, the Champions of the Sun, are back scrapping with everyone else this year, down 10 points on defence and 6 points on offence. Despite all of this they’re still scoring well but some thinness at RB and secondary is coming home to roost and they’re now in a position of relying on Trevor Siemian week on week for production. After them, Tamworth Two are having a ‘mare this season, giving away 8 points a game. LeSean McCoy is keeping their running game above water on his own and it’s really just the D-line and special teams (!) that account for the decline.

Weekly Stats

TABLES!

Don't Look Blat In Anger — Don’t Look Blat In Anger

Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14. Tim wins. 1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91. Tim wins. 2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54 Tim wins. 3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18 Tim wins. 4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)
Week 5: Peter (average) 177.50 vs Tim (average) 176.66 PETER WINS. 4-1 to Tim (victory margin 0.84)
Week 6: Peter (average) 170.47 vs Tim (average) 174.70 Sanity is restored, Tim wins. 5-1 to Tim (victory margin 4.23)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 179.85 vs Tim (average) 192.52. Tim leads (margin 12.68)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 4

October 8, 2016

Max Cubberley

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

Well thank Christ for that. Week 4 is in the books and finally we have some data that is actually starting to mean something. This feels like the first point in the season, for me, that we can really look at our teams’ performances and start to draw meaningful conclusions. Over the next two weeks I’m going to take a look at each team’s average score by position group so far this season and compare it to their average from weeks 1 – 16 of last season. This week: offence. To the data!

	2016 Week 1-4 Average vs 2015 Season 2015 Average
	Dungeoneers	Brees	T2	Sadness	Losers	Champions	Firebirds	Kelkowski	Hard	Bombermen
QB	-1.06	-1.08	2.49	5.96	-0.36	4.09	-5.23	-2.22	-6.23	-0.73
RB	-3.84	-4.36	-6.44	14.34	4.54	0.84	3.13	9.75	-2.29	13.61
WR/TE	-3.59	5.26	2.18	-12.68	6.34	0.42	-9.69	-5.67	-0.41	10.71
SPEC	2.09	0.95	-2.59	-2.10	-0.09	-2.29	-1.11	2.79	-1.22	0.91
OFF	-6.41	0.77	-4.37	5.52	10.43	3.06	-12.90	4.65	-10.14	24.49

Yuk. It looks much prettier in my spreadsheet, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Quarterback

Winners: So far MANGBOOB has resisted the urge to fiddle about switching Drew Brees in and out with whatever no mark he has down the depth chart and it’s paying dividends with an increase of nearly 6 points on average at the position. I mean, last season’s performance was a low bar to clear (less than 15 points a week) but a win’s a win. The Champions are showing an improvement of over 4 points too with Roethlisberger, Eagles aside, going to town so far in 2016.

Losers: So far through 4 weeks, a QB has been in Dyna Hard’s top 10 scorers of the week only once, in week 1 (for comparison, everyone else has had a QB in their top 10 3 or 4 times). Chris has cycled through Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and even Marcus Mariota so far, trying to play matchups but those three are simply too hard to predict (well, you could probably predict Marcus Mariota hasn’t been worth starting any of these weeks). Chris is probably best advised to pick one of Stafford and Manning and stick with them although no doubt whoever he picks will be the wrong one. The other big loser here is the Firebirds but I’m wary of reading too much into this. The Seahawks typically take time to get their offence going and Wilson has been banged up. I think we can expect to see this improve.

Running Backs

Winners: There are two runners way ahead of the pack here, the Sadness and the Bombermen. Neither of these is difficult to analyse. Imagine me standing mutely on a stage. To my right is Ezekiel Elliot. I am pointing at Ezekiel Elliot. To my left is David Johnson. I am pointing at David Johnson. You can dive a bit deeper and say that both are getting better support from Jeremy Hill and Matt Jones’ raging lack-of-any-competition but you probably don’t need to.

Losers: As many Dynabowl experts predicted (well, one… well, me) at the start of the season, T2 are suffering at tailback this season. Jonathan Stewart disappeared some time in September and without him LeSean McCoy is trying to navigate choppy waters on his own. T2 have traded for Bilal Powell this week in an attempt to put things back on course and it’s a good solid move that should help to steer them back towards mediocrity. The other big loser here is Breeses but, considering their RBs are still the 5th highest scoring in the Dbowl, I don’t think there’s much to read into this. With Doug Martin injured and Devonta Freeman not scoring three TDs every game it was bound to happen.

Receivers

Winners: The Bombermen are another big winner here and when you consider that between receivers and RBs they’re averaging 24 points more than last season it’s easy to see why they’re top of the rankings. It feels like this is the production we thought was coming this year so it’s not really a surprise. It must be very pleasing for Ben to see, having kept faith with Cooks, Benjamin and Jordan Matthews as each came through their own struggles last season. The Losers and Brees are also much improved here and you can point at off-season trades for Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry respectively as big factors in this.

Losers: While every category so far has been a triumph for the Sadness, the reading isn’t so pretty here. Odell Beckham is mouthing off more than he’s balling out and losing Eric Decker and Golden Tate (look, he was good last season) has hurt too. Stephon Diggs looks like the real deal though and as MANGBOOB’s rookies start to warm up to the NFL this score will head back the right way. The Firebirds are the next in line to the throne of suffering. No Gronk, no Demaryius Thomas and no Brady slingin’ it to Edelman probably explains this. The good news for Neil is that Willie Snead looks to be a good WR 2/3 going forward and that Gronk and Brady will be back firing on all cylinders soon. The real person to look to for trouble here is Pete. Cooper doesn’t get a sniff in the end zone and Allen and Kevin White are done for the season. That -4 is only going down from here I’m afraid.

Special Teams

Winners: We are all winners because we play in a league with fantasy punters. Every day I wake up a little bit happier than I would have been otherwise, knowing that this is the case. Now, if only we could get those fantasy Long Snappers in.

Losers: All those plebs out there who restrict themselves to a fantasy kicker. They don’t know what they’re missing. The only thing better than a great punt is an awful punt.

Offence

Winners: The Bombermen are a whopping 25 points better this season on offence than last season, turning from a middle of the road goose (they weren’t bad enough to be an ugly duckling) into a swan. Most of that 25 points is accounted for above so I will take the time to draw attention to the second most improved team on offence, the Dynasore Losers. I haven’t mentioned them much in any of the categories above because their improvement has more been about building on what came before. Good gains at receiver at and running back pair with holding steady at QB and special teams to produce a strong growth.

Losers: Dyna Hard are one of the biggest losers compared to last year, their offence being 10 points down on last season’s performance. Much of that is accounted for in QB as mentioned above but it’s worth noting that they are worse in every single offensive position this season, a worrying trend. Bottom of the pile are Neil’s Firebirds with a modest gain at RB from CJ Anderson’s new-found reliability not enough to counteract that weakened receiver corps and a banged-up Russell Wilson. The question really is, if Neil is giving 13 points away on offence compared to last season then how has he had such a decent start to the season? Tune in to next week’s blat to find out…

Weekly Stats

Here are your stats after week 4.

Blat Once Again With The Renegade Master — Blat Once Again For The Renegade Master

Peter vs. Tim Watch

Season to Date: Peter (average) 182.78 vs Tim (average) 200.94. Tim leads (margin 18.17)

Oh dear. That margin just keeps growing. I might have to call this for Tim. TKO.

Who is Going to Win the 2018 Dynabowl? by Ian Kulkowski (Hint – it’s not me!)

A Trade Retrospective

2017 Free Agency Review: Tim

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 6

Weekly Stats

Peter vs. Tim Watch

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 4

Weekly Stats

Peter vs. Tim Watch

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