Tag: Dynasty of Sadness

Once the final scores are tallied each week, I, Maximilian Cubberley, feed them into a colourful spreadsheet to produce spurious stats that range from the inaccurate to the irrelevant. Last season I kept this to myself for the most part but now, you lucky bunch, you get to share in the fun too! Here’s some stats complete with half-arsed analysis from week 1 of the new season. As always, when we start something new we look to the past for validation. Let’s see how everyone’s week 1 compared to last season.

Don’t Take Offence

A lot changed in the off-season. Players were cut, players were traded, players were drafted, all David’s linebackers retired. Here’s a sweeping overview of the top offences for week 1 vs the top offences from last season.

Top 5 Offences in 2015:

Dynaforone Firebirds (125 points on average)
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules (120 poa)
Dynasore Losers (116 poa)
Champions of the Sun (110 poa)
DynaHard (108 poa)

Top 5 Offences in Week 1:

Dynaforone Firebirds (132 points)
DynaHard (122 points)
Tamworth Two (115 points)
East Flanders Dungeoneers (110 points)
Champions of the Sun (107 points)

Firebirds still sit top of the pile with Champions of the Sun also holding rough position. DynaHard have powered up the rankings powered by free agent signing Joseph Randle and the surprising competence of the Tennessee Titans offence. The news is not so good for Kelkowski though where an injury to Arian Foster, Jeremy Maclin’s new position as ‘A Chiefs’ Pass Catcher Who Isn’t Travis Kelce’ and Julius Thomas’ need to break his own hand to avoid having to play for the Jags has dropped them out of the top 5 and resulted in a loss of 14 points from their average. They can console themselves with the fact that at least they’re not the Dynasore Losers though who plummet from 3rd place to 9th after one week with a staggering loss of 42 points from last season’s average. Although many predicted a sharp drop-off for Slater’s boys I don’t think anyone can have expected this and the fans will be hoping that this is a blip for the Broncos not the whole story as the Losers’ offence looks lost without Manning and Sanders as Jordy Nelson is also gone for the season.

On the other hand, maybe we should all just take solace in the fact these stats clearly mean nothing. I mean, the freshly re-branded East Flanders Dungeoneers have somehow appeared in the top 5 there gaining 16 points over their average from last year. Time will tell if the improvement is sustainable.

As a general note, whilst there are obviously big swings in points from one week to the next it should be noted that for both offence and defence, 4 of the top 5 teams at the end of last season were also in the top 5 in week 1 of last season.

On the Defensive

Top 5 Defences in 2015:

Champions of the Sun (80 poa)
Tamworth Two (79 poa)
DynaHard (77 poa)
Here Comes the Brees (75 poa)
Dynabummer Blastermensch (75 poa)

Top 5 Defences in Week 1:

DynaHard (115)
Champions of the Sun (90)
Here Comes the Brees (71)
DynaforOne Firebirds (65)
Dynasore Losers (61)

As with Offence we can see the Champions of the Sun holding steady and DynaHard showing improvement for what was already a good unit. Both teams should be encouraged by week 1 of this season and take it as a sign that they can improve on their positions from last season. Worryingly for the rest of the league, the Firebirds have held steady on offence and improved on defence, cracking the top 5 in week 1 when they finished 2015 as the worst defensive unit. This improvement is in no small part due to a big improvement at linebacker where Derrick Johnson’s return seems to have sparked life into the team.

Both the Tamworth Two and the Dynabunny Boostermonks dropped out of the top 5 in week 1. For the Hogs this may not be more than a blip. They scored 61 points on defence, which is a significant drop but it was a quiet week for elite rushers Chandler Jones and Olivier Vernon that should not become the new norm for these players. The Dynaboomer Bustermuffs dropped from 75 points to 39 in week 1, in large part due to a dismal 2.5 point effort from their defensive line of Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake and Mario Williams. Whilst this looks more alarming than the story for the Hogs you can’t look at those three names and say you expect single-digit defensive line performances going forward. The Bambimoons should bounce back next week.

Don’t Be Down on D

Some of you may be looking at your week 1 performances with a frowny face, worrying, particularly, about performance on the defensive side of the ball. With an average score of 64.5 on D this week the league is running at nearly 10 points under the average defensive performance than last year. There’s good news however as defensive point scoring trended up as the season went along last year. In weeks 1 to 5 last season, the average defence scored 65.1 points. In weeks 10 to 14 the average score jumped to 77.1. A lot of defensive positions are volatile, particularly DT, CB and S and it takes a while to pinpoint who the best players on the roster (or the wire) are for the coming season. Chances are that you will see your defences start to pick up more points as the season goes along and getting ahead of that knowledge curve in those volatile positions will help with that.

First to Worst

Now it’s time to overreact! Which units on which teams were good last season and terrible in week 1? Let’s find out.

Champions of the Sun RBs – 2015 rank: 3rd, Week 1 rank: 10th. With Le’Veon Bell and Lagarette Blount suspended, CJ Spiller injured and the Cleveland Cabal traded away it was no surprise to see the Champions rushing attack falter in week 1. Starting only two players for a combined 8.3 points it must have been painful viewing for the Dayman, even if it doesn’t seem to have cost him the win (disclaimer: scoring adjustments on Thursday are likely to make this statement false very shortly).
Dynasore Losers LBs – 2015 rank: 1st, Week 1 rank: 10th. As with the Champions’ rushers above, David Slater can’t have been surprised to see his linebacking corps disintegrate. DeAndre Levy released, Terrell Suggs injured, Tamba Hali another year older and, worst of all, Chris Borland retiring has left the Losers with a makeshift unit heaped on the shoulders of Ryan Kerrigan. It may pick up (to be honest, they scored 8 points between them this week, it couldn’t get worse) but we won’t be seeing the Losers back to the top of the charts at this position this year.
East Flanders Dungeoneers and Dynasty of Sadness Special Teams – 2015 rank: 4th and 3rd, Week 1 rank: 9th and 10th. It’s a sure sign that teams have been focusing their off-season efforts in the wrong places when special teams takes a hit. Despite how commonly acknowledged it is, both Pete Conaghan and Geoffrey Manboob seem to have forgotten that kickers and punters are the lifeblood of the team. If this course is not corrected immediately I foresee a dismal season ahead for both teams.

Last in the Past

Now let’s look at some of the units that have improved vastly over last season based on week 1 performance.

East Flanders Dungeoneers Running Backs – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd. When the Dungeoneers gave up Eddy Lacy for the 2nd pick in the draft it seemed like Pete Conaghan was accepting that sub par was the new par at running back. When he then traded away Lagarette Blount it seemed the white flag was already waving. Little did we know that Carlos Hyde was the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson. Hyde put up 168 yards and 2 TDs in week 1 against the Vikings. Whilst you might question the sustainability of this, Justin Forsett and Rashad Jennings contributed another 17 points and the unit was only narrowly pipped to #1 by an Ameer Abdullah and Eddy Lacy-led Sadness rushing unit. The Dungeoneers won’t get 47 points from this lot every week but they seem to be in a position to sustain a good performance for the season. They won’t win anything if they don’t sort out their special teams though. Seriously. Sort out your special teams, Pete.
Dynaforone Firebirds Linebackers – 2015 rank: 10th, Week 1 rank: 2nd. Julius Peppers was a lone bright spot for the Firebirds last season at linebacker. This improvement may need to be taken with a pinch of salt as, despite coming 2nd on the week, the Firebirds’ linebackers put up a good week, not a great week. Derrick Johnson is a big plus for them though and Brandon Graham will have better days ahead. The unit is not deep though so an injury in the wrong place or age catching up to Peppers could see the Firebirds dropping back down the rankings again.

That’s it from me for week 1. Theoretically I will be doing more pointless stats in the coming weeks but, realistically, I’ll probably not be bothered.

Guest Previews 2015 – The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness by Max Cubberley

September 9, 2015

Max Cubberley

The People’s Republic of the 4^th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

2014 Record: 5-8, last place in Peter, 9^th in points for, last in potential points, 9^th in all play, improved to 7^th in the loser ladder

Off-season Review

It really was a back and forth battle all last season. One week one team had the edge, the next week it was the other team. Both sets of players, and their GMs, put in a monumental effort to outdo the other in a contest that had the rest of us on the edges of our seats but ultimately only one team could finish bottom of Peter and the Sadness just pipped the Dungeoneers to the post. Regardless of that, Geoffrey Manboob went into the off-season knowing he had a big job on his hands.

Unfortunately the Peach Shadow seemed to take that literally and went for quantity rather than quality in free agency with 23 players joining up for a gruelling evaluation process in training camp, the most notable names including Darrelle Revis and Brandon LaFell. Of those 23 not many survived. Josh Hill adds a splash of potential at TE and Bruce Irvin and Damontre Moore may turn into solid additions but, overall, free agency has all the colour and movement of a candy floss machine with all the attendant substance. At least they didn’t lose anyone significant with Riley Cooper, Justin Smith and Greg Jennings the only notable names to be cut or released.

Heading into the draft, the Sadness did not look any stronger than last season but if MANGBOOB disappointed in free agency he showed his nous in the cut-throat, split-second world of dynasty drafting. The haul of young talent wasn’t particularly exciting with Ameer Abdullah, Matt Jones and Jaelen Strong the three main prospects to emerge but the GM’s manoeuvring also brought Eddy Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Sheldon Richardson and Markus Wheaton in. Richardson’s subsequent legal troubles cast something of a pall on that move but in getting Lacy and Osweiler for 1.02, Manboob pulled off the deal of the year, maybe even the decade.

In other trade-related business the Sadness revealed the depth of belief they have in Teddy Tinyhands as a future star QB by trading Cam Newton to the Dungeoneers with Drew Brees coming the other way to smooth the transition for Bridgeater.

Improvement: The Sadness already had one of the strongest WR groups in the league and they come into the new season with an upgrade at QB and a huge one at RB. The sore thumb on the roster is Montee Ball at $49 but even there we could see a happy ending as if the lad goes 4 weeks without a team he can be released with none of that guaranteed salary sticking on the Sadness’ wage bill thanks to being cut by the Broncos. They finished 10^th in average offensive points per game last season and they should see a huge improvement there in the new season.

Regression: When I say that there are no areas of the Sadness that look weaker you shouldn’t read too much into that. It would have been harder for some areas of the team to get weaker. The defence is largely untouched from the unit that averaged the 9^th lowest score last season and it would take a lot of squinting to see how it would improve on that with the group of players there. The Sadness focused on improving the offence in the off-season and will be hoping that will cover the defensive deficiencies for a year.

Prediction: I don’t necessarily see too much of an improvement in standings for the Sadness and think they could well finish 5-8 or maybe 6-7 again, being towards the bottom end of Peter. What I do expect is for them to be competitive in most games and bridge a lot of the gap that existed between them and the Dungeoneers and the rest of the league.

2015 Commish Preview: The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

August 26, 2015

Commish

League Business Previews No Comments

Team: The 4^th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness – Mike Laycock/Mark Simpson

2014 Record: 5-8, 2^nd pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Ameer Abdullah (RB), Jaelen Strong (WR)k, Arik Armstead (DE)

Free Agency – Josh Hill (TE), Bruce Irvin (LB)

Trade – Eddie Lacy (RB), Sheldon Richardson (DE), Markus Wheaton (WR), Drew Brees (QB)

Significant Losses:

Trade – Cam Newton (QB)

Preview:

2014 was not a fun year for the Dynasty of Sadness (DoS) and anything positive I can say about their performance is really a negative. They outperformed their AWE of 4.12 wins, making it all the way up to … 5 wins. They had only a 35% chance of making it up to 5 wins, to get to 6 would have been less than a 6% chance.

While the DoS did make it up to 9^th in total points scored, they were more than 200 points behind the 8^th place in that particular stat but worse than that, they were 10^th in potential points, 150 points behind the Dungeoneers. Any way you look at it they put together an awful season.

And then to rub salt into the wound, despite that terrible performance, they still managed to win their game against the Dyna Hard and so lose out on the number 1 pick in the draft.

However, when you employ git-wizard David Blaine to magically turn that number 2 pick in the draft into Eddie Lacy, things start to look better. Running back was a real weak point for the DoS in 2014, with only 2 players reaching 100 points, and one of those was Shane Vereen, maxing out at 113.8. Add Ameer Abdullah into the mix, the rookie who has looked most effective in pre-season, and this could turn into a very good backfield.

Wide receiver was probably the only bright spot in 2014 with Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jnr and Golden Tate all putting up good scores. All 3 remain in 2015, but after that the depth drops off. Can Eric Decker, Brandon LaFell, Paul Richardson, Markus Wheaton or Jaelan Strong step up in the event of an injury?

Josh Hill is a good addition at TE, another underperforming unit in 2014, but, truth be told, no one knows what he’s capable of, not even Mama Hill.

The swap of Brees for Newton is putting the future eggs in the basket of Teddy Bridgeater. The news of the injury to Kelvin Benjamin suggests that Cam will find it hard to score as highly as might have been expected, but Brees has a completely redesigned offence around him too, with suggestions they will lean more heavily on the run. This may be much of a muchness and not affect the 2015 season much, with bigger questions surrounding whether Bridgeater can be as good a fantasy QB as he looks like he will be in the NFL.

The defence is an up and down affair. Undeniable strength at cornerback and above average linebackers are balanced by weakness at DT and DE. The length of suspension for Sheldon Richardson is still to be determined and the Jets haven’t confirmed they want to keep him. Based on 2014, defence is unpredictable so there’s always the chance that the players on the roster outperform current expectations, but league average defence is probably the top end of expectations.

Verdict:

Arguably the most improved team in the league but still some work to do to finish moulding them into a consistent winner. A glimmer of playoff possibility but perhaps a season too soon.

Prediction:

7-6. Sneaking into the playoffs isn’t beyond the realm of possiblity. They surely won’t be picking in the top 3 again and a 6-7 or 7-6 record seems entirely reasonable. Peter is arguably the weaker of the two divisions and with Lacy, OBJ and Dez Bryant there are enough stars here to take a run at the Divisional title.

Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

June 29, 2015

David Slater

League Business Rookie Draft Stat Attacks Trading No Comments

With the draft in the books, it’s time to take stock and work out what it all means… Pre-draft needs are taken from the 2.0 draft.

DynaHarder

Pre-draft needs: QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S

What you started with: 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 4.11, 5.01, 5.11, 6.01, 7.01. Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, DeAngelo Williams

What you ended up with: Toddy Gurley, Marcus Mariota, David Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Jeremy Langford, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, Bradley Pinion, TY Hilton

The worst case: An over-used running back, with a succession of muscle injuries and topped off by one few, if any, players ever completely recover from, on a team who’s line has been rebuilt after stinking out 2014… Gurley out T-Riches T-Rich. The least Whisenhunt QB ever, going to work with Ken Whisenhunt, and two depth options from a moribund offence offer no viable fantasy starters. In fact, in the worst case scenario, the only fantasy relevant starter in this draft is a punter. At least there’s TY Hilton, until he signs somewhere else next year.

The upside: Hilton doesn’t land in a bad spot when he leaves the Colts. Gurley’s injury doesn’t take much of his top end and he becomes the best thing in St Louis since Faulk. Mariota rejuvenates the Titans offence, and Cobb quickly moves to the top of the depth chart behind a line which improves a lot as Warmack finally harnesses his talent. Bell replaces Jackson, Forte leaves the Bears and Diggs develops into Teddy’s favourite target. Then you wake up.

Realistically: Mariota may never be a fantasy starter, but he fills the need at QB, Gurley and Cobb offer solid RB3 options and Hilton is a very good WR2. The needs at TE and S can be filled in free agency, with good options available there.

Dynasty of Sadness

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.

What you started with: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.12, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02. Calais Campbell*, Cam Newton

What you ended up with: Ameer Abdullah, Jaelen Strong, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Bud Dupree, Arik Armstead, DeAndre Carter, Zach Zenner, Eddie Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Markus Wheaton, Sheldon Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Paul Richardson*, Drew Brees

The worst case: You wasted your top pick on a back up, and have thoroughly sewn up a wholly worthless Detroit backfield. Robinson and Jones are gambles that don’t work out. Armstead is a project who never projects to anything and Wheaton, Williams and Osweiler don’t even make it through roster cuts. With no targets in the passing game Brees wastes the last couple of years of his fantasy relevance and Teddy never kicks on, leaving two QBs who rank just outside the top 10. A third concussion in three years leads to a long lay off and he returns a shadow of his best on limited workloads, meanwhile Amari Cooper tears it up and somehow this trade ends up looking like the Sadness got the worst end.

The upside: Lacy is the RB1 the Sadness needed and Abdullah quickly replaces Bell who’d plateaued at mediocre to become a good RB2. Strong is a solid WR2/3, Richardson and Dupree are defensive starters, Jones replaces Morris who leaves in free agency and Robinson replaces Gore in 12 months. Carter outperforms Perriman and Armstead develops into the beast his physical stature suggests.

Realistically: Brees fills the need at QB immediately, giving time for Bridgewater to develop, Lacy is a definite filler for RB1. The need at TE could be filled in the medium term with a free agent rookie and Sheldon Richardson is a solid starting DE2. Dupree fills a need at LB and could play from year one. Need at DT remains. The Sadness are definitely improved in the draft, but for all the trading, they ended up with the same number of picks they started with and a lot of the trade pieces were middling at best.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pre-draft needs: RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.

What you started with: 1.03, 2.03, 2.11, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 6.03, 7.03. Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Steve Smith*, Brock Osweiler, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

What you ended up with: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devin Smith, Mike Davis, Rashad Greene, Paul Dawson, Cam Newton, Keenan Allen*, Vernon Davis, Darren Sproles, Ryan Tannehill

The worst case: You traded away a legitimate RB1 at pennies on the dollar, bringing in wide receivers who will get thrown the ball (sideways) by Derek Carr, Genome and sulky Jay Cutler (until he’s cut next summer). Cam is a busted flush, who isn’t a viable fantasy starter without running and Tannehill is not Brees. Keenan Allen turns out to be the guy from 2014, rather than 2013 and Vernon Davis and Darren Sproles are only starting because they play for the Dungeoneers.

The upside: Both Cooper and White hit big early, and given a couple of years Devin Smith develops into a viable starter when the Jets find a QB. Cam’s pocket passing develops, but he remains a big threat on the ground, and a top 5 QB, while Tannehill becomes good tradebait for a QB-needy team. Both Clay and Davis are solid TEs at least for the short term and Levy remains a top tier LB for a few more years. Gore turns out to be actually invincible as has long been suspected.

Realistically: At best one of Cooper and White develops into a top tier WR1/2, but the other is serviceable as a 3rd receiver. Yes, the team sucks this year, but that just puts them in a good position to get a good RB in 2016. Paul Dawson should be a fine ILB, and Keenan Allen’s true worth is probably as a decent WR2, regardless of which, stealing him for Steve Smith was a stroke of genius. Defensive End is still a problem.

Tamworth Two

Pre-draft needs: WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.

What you started with: 1.04, 2.04, 3.04, 4.04, 5.04, 6.04, 7.04. Markus Wheaton, Vernon Davis, Orlando Scandrick, John Brown, Darren Sproles

What you ended up with: DeVante Parker, Duke Johnson, Vic Beasley, DeAndre Smelter, Cameron Artis-Payne, Landon Collins, Denzel Perryman, Karlos Williams, Darren Waller

The worst case: The bust rate on first round receivers is massive, and even if Parker doesn’t bust, there’s no guarantee he is anything more than a low end fantasy starter or flex in Miami’s uninspired offence. Smelter is a reach who never becomes relevant, Johnson is part of a committee and Artis-Payne and Williams only handcuffs. A defensive starter or two don’t make up for the misses on offense, meanwhile John Brown lights it up for the Champions of the Sun.

The upside: Parker works well underneath in Miami’s new offence and gets volume yardage as well as red-zone action. Johnson establishes himself as the main back in Cleveland and Beasley, Collins and Perryman all serve their teams well. Smelter needs time but becomes a flex option, replacing Boldin, while Williams and Artis-Payne back up the main men on Tamworth Two just fine.

Realistically: Parker is probably a WR2 at best, with his viability underneath and in the red zone making him a good option for Tannehill who doesn’t have the arm to make good deep throws. Johnson is in a committee in Cleveland, but could end up being the main part of it, either way, he’s probably a low end RB2 at best. Beasley should be a viable DE and Perryman and Collins could also be viable positional starters. John Brown might be the new TY Hilton, but without Andrew Luck that doesn’t mean much.

Champions of the Sun

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2/3, WR3.

What you started with: 1.05, 2.05, 3.05, 4.05, 5.05, 6.05, 7.05. DeSean Jackson, Paul Richardson*, Da’Norris Searcy, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee.

What you ended up with: Jay Ajayi, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr, Thomas Rawls, Bernardrick McKinney, Hau’oli Kikaha, MyCole Pruitt, Michael Bennett, Marcel Dareus, Calais Campbell*, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, John Brown

The worst case: Ajayi never displaces Lamar Miller, Williams is used situationally, Fowler never makes it to the NFL due to injuries, Dareus moves to nose, Helu disappears into Oakland’s depth chart much as he did in Washington, neither of the Browns are viable starters and Michael Bennett is more of a nose alongside San’derrick Marks. Lots of flex players, but few starters.

The upside: John Brown is the new TY Hilton with Palmer back, Dante Fowley and Williams develop into top tier NFL ends, and MyCole Pruitt takes over as the Vikings Tight End. Dareus ends up with all the play of an end, while remaining a DT by position on MFL.

Realistically: Having traded down and then out of the first there wasn’t a potential star available, and picking up the best two defenders in the mid rounds represents value, if not necessarily guaranteeing any success. Ajayi might be short term due to injury concerns, but it’s a short term position anyway, and with bell leading the RBs there’s no need for him to be a star. Rawls is a wasted pick, but gives you a monopoly on the Seattle running backs who never actually play.

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Pre-draft needs: ‘elite’ players.

What you started with: 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 4.13, 5.06, 6.06, 7.06. Danny Lansanah, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Steven Jackson*

What you ended up with: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Justin Hardy, Trae Waynes, Shane Ray, Grady Jarrett, Trey Flowers, Christian Ringo, Jeremy Hill, Orlando Scandrick

The worst case: Gordon ensures control of a San Diego backfield that sucks, his tendency to bounce outside and get tackled for a loss, relying on speed to beat sub-par college players proves unsurprisingly unsuccessful in the NFL. Conley discovers why Kansas receivers didn’t score a TD at all last year, Hardy is the new Harry Douglas while David Johnson ensure Arizona’s committee of mediocrity is maintained. With Green returning and Bernard fitter, Hill ends up part of a committee also, although not as mediocre as the one in Arizona, neither Bernard nor Hill are much more than RB2s.

The upside: Hill, Ellington, Johnson and Bernard fall into more traditional 1/2 roles giving 2 good starters, Conley shows the reason why KC didn’t score touchdowns was a lack of talent, rather than Alex Smith & Andy Reid and Gordon is the game-changing playmaker the Chargers traded up for. Waynes is a solid selection at CB, and Scandrick makes up a starting pair at the position with him.

Realistically: There’s probably an RB1 somewhere in the mess of Ellington, Hill, Bernard, Johnson, Oliver and Gordon, but whether there’s more than one is hard to call, and they could easily all get in each others ways. Conley and Hardy are upside picks, but both probably top out at WR2 or WR3. Shane Ray could be a decent DE in a year’s time, but might not offer much immediately. Hill and Gordon offer the best chance of hitting on an elite player and Green’s return to fitness should provide one at WR, but ultimately, the need to find an elite player or two probably wasn’t met in this draft.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Pre-draft needs: QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.

What you started with: 1.07, 2.07, 3.07, 4.07, 5.07, 6.07, 7.07.

What you ended up with: TJ Yeldon, Devin Funchess, Stephone Anthony, Randy Gregory, Danny Shelton, Ahmed Brooks

The worst case: Gerhart takes over the Jags backfield making Yeldon wait. Funchess’ lack of pace combined with Cam’s erratic throwing make for a poor combination, Anthony barely plays, Shelton is a nose and Randy Gregory is a bit too much of a prick for the cowboys to stomach.

The upside: Gregory is a solid steal in the middle rounds, and Anthony blossoms with improved scoring for inside backers. Funchess is an Olsen like workable WR2, and Yeldon gives the Jags a proper running back threat, it not at elite one.

Realistically: There’s still a need at Tight End, and Shelton (being a Nose) is probably not going to fill the need at tackle. Projecting Anthony as an LB1 in the short-term seems a streatch, and the need at QB was not filled due to Kelkowski not recognising the danger when the Losers traded up. Yeldon might be a starter at RB, but there wasn’t too serious a need at the position anyway, so he might end up being a reasonable chip for a trade. Funchess could go either way, but projects as at best a bench option in a fairly limited Panthers passing attack.

DynaSore Losers

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB

What you started with: 1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08, 5.08, 6.08, 7.08. Sheldon Richardson.

What you ended up with: Nelson Agholor, Jameis Winston, Sammie Coates, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Clive Walford, Jake Ryan, Danielle Hunter

The worst case: Agholor dropped for a reason, and that reason was Sam Bradford, who isn’t good before he gets hurt and is Mark Sanchez after. Coates never gets a look in at Pittsburgh and Odighizuwa never replaces JPP. Winston meanwhile is every bit as good as advertised and becomes the best quarterback serving time in federal prison, trading Richardson for him turns out even worse as the massive hole at DE goes unfilled.

The upside: Winston is every bit as good as advertised in the NFL, proving to be almost as good as Luck and replacing Manning for 2016 in the Losers starting QB slot. Agholor develops into a WR1 due to his ability to turn routine plays into huge gains and be a threat in the red zone. Coates meanwhile shows his big game talent regularly, replacing Bryant and Wheaton as a clear #2 option for Roethlisberger. Ryan and Odighizuwa are solid defensive starters from the early days and Walford is a decent bench option at TE.

Realistically: There’s a hole at DE that Odighizuwa won’t fill in 2015, and Hunter is even less likely to. No viable tackle is found and the weaknesses in defence undermine the team by costing silly points each week. There is a serious lack of depth at RB, and even covering bye weeks, let alone injuries, will be tough.

Here Comes the Brees

Pre-draft needs: RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S

What you started with: 1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09. Marcel Dareus, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, Keenan Allen, Martellus Bennett

What you ended up with: Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Maxx Williams, Shaq Thompson, Garrett Grayson, Jordan Hicks, Steven Jackson*, Steve Smith*, DeSean Jackson, Danny Lansanah, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee

The worst case: Perriman, Dorsett and Williams offer little to nothing in 2015, and don’t exactly light it up in 2016 either. Jackson remains the boom/bust receiver who misses 2-4 games a year with injuries. Owning the browns backfield is as worthwhile as it would seem and Coleman is a RB2 in the good years. Keenan Allen refinds his 2013 form.

The upside: Coleman establishes himself early and for a number of years as an RB1-/2+ and Perriman replaces Smith fairly seemlessly as a WR2-/3+. Williams is a solid tight end with a QB who loves throwing to him, and establishes himself as a solid TE1 and Dorsett’s talent sees him work his way into the team in 2015, with Hilton barely missed in 2016. Marquise Lee becomes a good depth receiver with his fitness issues overcome.

Realistically: There were a lot of players drafted, but this is a long-term sort of draft. Tight Ends rarely offer much in year one, Dorsett doesn’t offer much hope of a strong first year and Baltimore’s offence is hardly electric, suggesting Perriman will need time also. Ultimately this draft was one to position the team to be more competitive in 2016, and Dorsett, Perriman and Coleman should do that. 2015 will likely be rough though.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Pre-draft needs: DE1, LB, CB, S

What you started with: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7.10. Jeremy Hill, TY Hilton, Ryan Tannehill

What you ended up with: Dorial Green-Beckham, Eric Kendricks, Javorius Allen, Mario Edwards Jr, Henry Anderson, Bryce Petty, Martellus Bennett, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

The worst case: Trading starting offensive pieces for middling offensive and defensive starters is a tactic that backfires. Bennett is an expensive back-up for Gronk if he stays fit and a poor replacement if he doesn’t, Edelman isn’t going to replace Jones if he gets injured (again), and Ogletree is an upgrade at LB but at a stiff price. Kendricks is an ILB and doesn’t crack the top 20 LBs any time soon, Allen is the 3rd RB in Baltimore and DGB is nowhere on the Titans depth chart. Henry Anderson joined one of the worst rushing defences in the NFL.

The upside: Anderson becomes the pass rush in Indianapolis and the upgrades on defence offer more to the Firebirds than they lose on offence. Edelman is a good WR2, with Jones fit ahead of him and Hill isn’t missed because Lynch and Anderson carry the rock effectively and a lot.

Realistically: If / when Jones gets an injury the team will suffer as Edelman simply doesn’t have the potential to put up WR1 points that Hilton did and while Hill won’t be missed with Anderson and Lynch putting up solid RB1 points it’s likely that the points gained on defensive upgrades such as Ogletree and Levy only balance those lost on offensive players, with the team overall showing more variance in scoring and losing one or two more games in down weeks as a result.

Dynabowl Rookie Draft versus ADP & IDP

June 27, 2015

Pete

League Business Power Rankings Rookie Draft No Comments

Now that the dust has settled on the Rookie Draft, is it possible to determine who performed best in that draft? Maybe. I have a go at it below.

Methodology

There are no combined Offensive Player and IDP rookie draft rankings for Dynasty leagues that I can find, so I’ve gone to Dynasty League Football’s rankings for both.

I took the Rookie ADP (Average Draft Position) rankings from June 2015 (click on Rookies tab), and the DLF IDP rankings for the defensive rookies. Then I took the Dynabowl draft and ordered it by Offensive and Defensive picks, and compared the data, providing a score based on deviation from ADP/IDP ranking.

For example, Leonard Williams was the first defensive pick in the Dynabowl, but is the 9^th rated rookie by IDP, so he would garner a score of -8 for that pick (massive reach). The higher the score, the better. This methodology has many flaws, the biggest being the range of different scoring methods for IDP leagues (the top three rookies here are Linebackers), but provides a baseline in the absence of something better.

Other flaws

This is looking at the draft in a vacuum; no trades are assessed.

Some of the players do not appear in either set of data – should owners be penalised for that? They are not penalised here.

DynaHarder

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.01	1	1		Gurley, Todd STL RB (R)	2		-1
2.05	15	15		Mariota, Marcus TEN QB (R)	23		-8
2.10	20	20		Cobb, David TEN RB (R)	20		0
4.01	32	27		Lockett, Tyler SEA WR (R)	27		0
4.02	33	28		Langford, Jeremy CHI RB (R)	37		-9
4.11	42	32		McBride, Tre TEN WR (R)	36		-4
5.11	55	38		Bell, Kenny TBB WR (R)	33		5
6.01	56	39		Diggs, Stefon MIN WR (R)	34		5
7.01	66			Pinion, Bradley SFO PN (R)			N/A
Total							-12

Nothing too egregious here, a slight reach for Mariota and Langford.

Bombermen

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.05	5	5		Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (R)	3		2
2.08	18	18		Johnson, David ARI RB(R)	18		0
3.03	24	23		Conley, Chris KCC WR (R)	26		-3
4.06	37	31		Hardy, Justin ATL WR (R)	31		0
4.13	44		11	Waynes, Trae MIN CB (R)		N/A	N/A
5.09	53		16	Ray, Shane DEN LB (R)		22	-6
6.02	57		18	Jarrett, Grady ATL DT (R)		N/A	N/A
6.04	59		20	Flowers, Trey NEP DE (R)		N/A	N/A
7.06	71		26	Ringo, Christian GBP DE (R)		N/A	N/A
Total							-7

Bombermen suffer for going after Cornerbacks, and other ungraded IDPs. This ranking ignores the big win in seizing Gordon at #5.

Dungeoneers

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.02	2	2		Cooper, Amari OAK WR (R)	1		1
1.03	3	3		White, Kevin CHI WR (R)	4		-1
2.11	21	21		Smith, Devin NYJ WR (R)	24		-3
4.04	35	30		Davis, Mike SFO RB (R)	28		2
5.03	47	36		Greene, Rashad JAC WR (R)	40		-4
6.03	58		19	Dawson, Paul CIN LB (R)		13	6
Total							1

Tamworth

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.04	4	4		Parker, DeVante MIA WR (R)	5		-1
2.02	12	12		Johnson, Duke CLE RB (R)	15		-3
3.04	25		2	Beasley, Vic ATL DE (R)		5	-3
3.05	26	24		Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR (R)	30		-6
4.03	34	29		Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB (R)	32		-3
4.09	40		9	Collins, Landon NYG S (R)		8	1
6.06	61		22	Perryman, Denzel SDC LB (R)		6	16
6.07	62	40		Williams, Karlos BUF RB (R)	N/A		N/A
7.03	68	44		Waller, Darren BAL WR (R)	N/A		N/A
Total							1

Tamworth are bailed out by a big IDP difference on Denzel Perryman – without that it would be much, much worse. However, none of the individual picks reach that much, so a case could be made for Tamworth knowing their man and going after him aggressively.

Kelkowski

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.07	7	7		Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB (R)	7		0
2.07	17	17		Funchess, Devin CAR WR (R)	16		1
3.07	28		4	Anthony, Stephone NOS LB (R)		2	2
4.07	38		7	Gregory, Randy DAL DE (R)		10	-3
5.07	51		15	Shelton, Danny CLE DT (R)		N/A	N/A
7.07	72	46		Montgomery, Ty GBP WR(R)	41		5
Total							5

Nothing to see here – no huge variation from the ADP, with the exception of taking the nose tackle in the 5th.

Firebirds

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
2.01	11	11		Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR (R)	8		3
3.06	27		3	Kendricks, Eric MIN LB(R)		1	2
3.10	31	26		Allen, Javorius BAL RB (R)	22		4
4.10	41		10	Edwards, Mario OAK DE (R)		14	-4
5.10	54		17	Anderson, Henry IND DE (R)		17	0
7.10	75	47		Petty, Bryce NYJ QB (R)	46		1
Total							6

Middle of the pack for the next few guys..

Brees

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.06	6	6		Coleman, Tevin ATL RB(R)	11		-5
1.10	10	10		Perriman, Breshad BAL WR (R)	9		1
2.06	16	16		Dorsett, Phillip IND WR (R)	13		3
2.09	19	19		Williams, Maxx BAL TE(R)	19		0
4.05	36		6	Thompson, Shaq CAR LB(R)		7	-1
6.09	64	41		Grayson, Garrett NOS QB (R)	N/A		N/A
7.09	74		28	Hicks, Jordan PHI LB (R)		20	8
Total							6

Champions

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
2.04	14	14		Ajayi, Jay MIA RB (R)	14		0
3.02	23		1	Williams, Leonard NYJ DE (R)		9	-8
3.09	30		5	Fowler, Dante JAC DE (R)		4	1
5.02	46	35		Rawls, Thomas SEA RB (R)	N/A		N/A
5.05	49		13	McKinney, Benardrick HOU LB (R)		3	10
6.05	60		21	Kikaha, Hau’oli NOS LB (R)		16	5
6.1	65	42		Pruitt, MyCole MIN TE (R)	N/A		N/A
7.05	70		25	Bennett, Michael JAC DT (R)		N/A	N/A
Total							8

Losers

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.08	8	8		Agholor, Nelson PHI WR (R)	6		2
2.03	13	13		Winston, Jameis TBB QB (R)	17		-4
3.08	29	25		Coates, Sammie PIT WR (R)	25		0
4.08	39		8	Odighizuwa, Owamagbe NYG DE (R)		11	-3
5.08	52	37		Walford, Clive OAK TE (R)	35		2
6.08	63		23	Ryan, Jake GBP LB (R)		15	8
7.08	73		27	Hunter, Danielle MIN DE (R)		23	4
Total							9

No picks from outside the equivalent ranking tables, a solid draft.

And the winner is….

Even without considering the Lacy Trade(TM), and the various other pieces picked up in the draft, The Dynasty of Sadness is the clear winner here, with a massive 27 points.

Draft Pick	Overall Pick #	Offensive Pick #	Defensive Pick #	Player	ADP Rank	IDP Rank	Difference +/-
1.09	9	9		Abdullah, Ameer DET RB (R)	10		-1
3.01	22	22		Strong, Jaelen HOU WR (R)	12		10
4.12	43	33		Robinson, Josh IND RB(R)	29		4
5.01	45	34		Jones, Matt WAS RB (R)	21		13
5.04	48		12	Dupree, Bud PIT LB (R)		12	0
5.06	50		14	Armstead, Arik SFO DE(R)		19	-5
7.02	67	43		Carter, DeAndre BAL WR (R)	N/A		N/A
7.04	69	45		Zenner, Zach DET RB (R)	39		6
Total							27

Big value picks like Strong and Jones, and no major reaches, means that The People’s Republic has won the draft, at least by this dubious and highly suspect methodology. Well done Geoffrey.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week One