Tag: Dynasty of Sadness

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 2

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For this week’s Stat Blat I thought I’d take the subject of my week 2 Stat Blat from last season and expand it.  In Week 2 of the 2015 season I looked at the average points from 2014 and 2015 through two weeks to looks for early indicators of squad improvement and design, as well as looking at potential points on average to see what impact GM selection was having.  I’ll be doing a similar idea this week.  For those of you who might claim I’m only doing this again so I don’t have to think of a new thing to look at, you’re quite right.

Reality Bites

Below is a table of comparisons for average points in weeks 1-2 of 2014, 2015 and 2016, ordered by 2015 finishing order.

Team Name 2015 Standing 2014 Wk2 2015 Wk2 2016 Wk2 POA Diff
Champions 11-2 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (192 poa) 1-1 (216 poa) +11/+24
Tamworth 2 7-6 2-0 (185 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 0-2 (184 poa) -18/+17
Dyna Hard 10-3 0-2 (168 poa) 2-0 (223 poa) 0-2 (176 poa) +55/-47
Kelkowski 6-7 2-0 (212 poa) 0-2 (153 poa) 1-1 (160 poa) -59/+7
Bombermen 6-7 0-2 (168 poa) 0-2 (156 poa) 2-0 (224 poa) -12/+68
Sadness 4-9 0-2 (129 poa) 0-2 (154 poa) 1-1 (174 poa) +25/+20
Losers 6-7 2-0 (175 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 1-1 (190 poa) -3/+23
Dungeoneers 5-8 1-1 (161 poa) 2-0 (158 poa) 1-1 (171 poa) -3/+13
Breeses 6-7 1-1 (146 poa) 0-2 (152 poa) 1-1 (191 poa) +6/+39
Firebirds 4-9 1-1 (137 poa) 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (206 poa) +44/+25

 

The obvious story on the positive side is the Dynablaster Bombermen.  After a disappointing 2015 they’ve come out gangbusters in 2016 with a massive 68 point average performance jump from 2015.  A big part of that has to be their receivers with Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews all in their 3rd years now and established as the number 1 options on their team.

Behind the B-men there are a cluster of teams showing significant improvement in the 20s range.  The Firebirds have started stronger each year of the Dbowl so far and have been propelled to a 2-0 start by the surprising strength of their defence, averaging 112 points per game, the best in the league.  The Dynasore Losers have also improved on 2015 and have had their strongest start yet, despite being 1-1.  Offensive improvement is key here as the team is averaging 15 points more on offence through 2 games then they did in 2015, much of it contributable to a shift to Carson Palmer at QB and Matt Forte’s huge workload in New York.

The Sadness have shown steady improvement now for two years but when you consider that they still only averaged 174 points this year so far then it’s clear that this is just the continuing story of a team struggling towards mediocrity after an awful initial draft.  Still, improvement is improvement and the team is young.  If they jump 20 points again next year they could find themselves 2-0.  Lastly, the Champions (in every sense of the word) may be 1-1 but have shown improvement again this year.  This may not be a sign that they are in for another dominant year though as they actually started slowly last season.  The second highest average points scored shows that they are still a force to be reckoned with though.

On the other hand, you have to look at Chris Braithwaite’s Dyna Hard With A Vengeance and wonder what went wrong.  They were hugely improved last season but seem to have lost all of that positive gain this year, losing 47 points on average.  As I highlighted in my preview, the running backs are a problem with none of them averaging over 10 points a game but the WRs are struggling too.  Only Antonio Brown is over 20 total points, none of the rest are even close.  The offence is averaging less than 100 points a game.  Only the Firebirds are worse and, unlike Neil’s team, Chris’ defence is not firing on all cylinders.

Interestingly, Chris is the only team to be averaging less points than this time last year.  Every other team is showing improvement.  This doesn’t seem to be a result of scoring changes as it’s actually the offences that are scoring higher than last year’s averages, rather than the defences.  Teams as a whole are averaging 189 points compared to 184 from last season.  Maybe we’re all just getting better at this shit?

Is It Indicative?

Is there really any point to this?  Does performance in the first two weeks of the season actually tell you anything about how a team will do that season?  Below is each team’s Week 2 Average and Season Average.

Team Name 2015 Wk2 Wk2 Rk 2015 Season Season Rk POA Diff
Champions 2-0 (192 poa) 2nd 11-2 (217 poa) 1st +25
Tamworth 2 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 7-6 (189 poa) 3rd +22
Dyna Hard 2-0 (223 poa) 1st 10-3 (199 poa) 2nd -24
Kelkowski 0-2 (153 poa) 9th 6-7 (189 poa) 3rd +36
Bombermen 0-2 (156 poa) 7th 6-7 (183 poa) 4th +27
Sadness 0-2 (154 poa) 8th 4-9 (179 poa) 5th +25
Losers 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 6-7 (176 poa) 7th +9
Dungeoneers 2-0 (158 poa) 6th 5-8 (168 poa) 9th +10
Breeses 0-2 (152 poa) 10th 6-7 (171 poa) 8th +19
Firebirds 1-1 (181 poa) 3rd 4-9 (178 poa) 6th -3

 

The thing that jumps out to me straight away is the reasonably consistent rate of improvement for teams.  5 of the 10 teams improved by 19 to 27 points over the course of the season on average.  This, presumably, is down to a combination of waiver wire pickups and starting lineup adjustment as the stars stashed on your bench in week 1 and 2 start to show.  The biggest risers were Kelkowski.  Looking at their lineups it’s noticeable that players like Blake Bortles, Brandon Marshall (LB), Reggie Nelson and Kwon Alexander weren’t in the starting lineup in week 1 and other big performers like Spencer Ware and Malik Jackson weren’t even on the squad yet.

To me it seems telling that the only team to lose average points (who didn’t start out abnormally hot like DynaHarder) was the Firebirds.  Neil only added 8 players through blind-bid waivers last season.  The four teams who added the most players?  Champions of the Sun (42), DynaHarder (40), Tamworth Two (30) and Kelkowski (28), i.e. the four teams in the playoffs at the end of the season.  Obviously there is a lot more to being successful in the Dynabowl than constantly churning through waiver wire additions but there’s no denying that the right pickups can have a huge effect and, just like the draft, the more tickets you buy to the lottery the more chance you have to come away with a Josh Norman, a Spencer Ware, an Allen Hurns, a Whitney Mercilus or a Willie Snead.

As far as the question of whether week 2 results are indicative or not is concerned, no team except Kelkowski moved more than 3 positions from their Week 2 Ranking to their Season Ranking.  You can improve in your score in the early weeks for sure but the best/luckiest GMs will also be improving so your ability to make up ground on those people is limited.  However, it is definitely possible to stagnate and not improve over the season.  Everyone around you will be getting better and their scores will be getting higher.  You need to do everything you can, whether that’s waiver wire additions, trades or rotating in from your bench wisely, to improve with them.

Weekly Stats

Here are your weekly averages for week 2.

Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?
Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?

Weekly Peter vs Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 181.86 vs Tim (average) 196.53. Tim leads (margin 14.67)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 1

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

The first week of the NFL season is all about overreaction and the jerking of knees.  To honour that I will be looking at everyone’s opening week performances and drawing some wild conclusions about what it means for the season ahead.  In the absence of enough data to actually draw any real conclusions that’ll just have to do for you.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Hot Take: Keenan Allen is broken!  Quincy Enunwa is the new Brandon Marshall!  Carson Palmer’s about to go full Peter!  I remembered Kevin White plays for the Bears!  Coby Fleener didn’t get Drew Brees a birthday cake!  That’s right, my wild conclusion for Pete’s Dungeoneers is that their receiver group that looked so good on paper in pre-season is actually a stinking turd.  “But Maxuell,” I hear you cry, “The Dungeoneers scored 6.38 points per receiver, which was bad, but the Firebirds were worse at 5.94 points per receiver!”  It’s true, the Dungeoneers were only the second worst team on a points per starter basis this week but the Birds had 7.4 per player on the bench and the Dungeoneers had 5.4.

Srsly? Yes.  Allen is really done and the Bears’ offence looks pretty dire.  Fleener’s situation does not look good either and Pete’s backup TEs don’t look great.  Obviously it’s not as bad as all that.  Cooper is still a stud and Marshall and Floyd will get theirs but I had high hopes for this group that look like they won’t be borne out.

Here Comes The Brees

Hot Take: The Breeses are the best team in Peter (not saying much, I know, see below).  Andrew Luck is back to his gunslingin’ best and even in a week where Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller didn’t get into top gear the Breeses’ offence still averaged 11.57 points per starter, good for 2nd in the league.  The defence was in the bottom half of the league as you’d imagine but this team has the raw power to bludgeon other teams to death with the power of their attacking options.

Srsly? Yes.  The Breeses and the Sadness were the best two teams in Peter this week by a comfortable margin.  Looking at the rosters of the 5 teams there’s no doubt that the Brees have the edge in offensive power so as long as their defence can maintain its position of slightly below mediocre then they should be good to go.

Tamworth Two

Hot Take: Tamworth Two will be picking at #1 in the 2017 rookie draft.  T2’s starters in week 1 were uninspiring.  I mean, they’re rolling out 52 year-old Anquan Boldin at WR and a Cleveland RB.  Things look better on the defensive side of the ball but the nerfing of big plays brings the ceiling down on their elite DTs and it’s not hard to see everyone else except Kuechly and Jones hanging T2 out to dry.  This team is very average rather than bad but everyone else has upped their game and Mat are getting left in the dirt.

Srsly? No.  Everything’s very close in Peter to my mind so it’s not impossible but I think T2 have enough quality and Mat and James are good enough GMs that they won’t finish bottom.  Although they have Slatz’ first round pick so they may still end up with the #1 pick in the rookie draft…

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Hot Take: Teddy Tinyhands’ injury will lead the Sadness to the playoffs.  We all know Michael likes to tinker.  He’s never happy with his lineups and his choices and he’s always going backwards and forwards.  This often leads to him getting too clever on his choices and overthinking them.  For that reason, Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury was a very good thing for the Sadness.  Drew Brees is a consistent, top of the line fantasy QB and he was on the bench for the Sadness last season.  Now, unless Mangboob develops inexplicable Brockules man-love, Brees will be starting every game he’s available for and the Sadness will be better for it.  Perhaps the hotter take here is that I think the Detroit RBs will pave the way for a playoff appearance but both Abdullah and Riddick looked great and Mangboob could start both of them in a week and still be confident of results.

Srsly? No.  The Colts looked monumentally bad on Defence in the game against the Lions and Riddick and Abdullah will not get that open that often against many teams.  On the Brees front, I trust him, I just don’t trust Mike.  It’s a three way QBBC with Brockules and Goff when he starts.  Don’t ask me how it makes any sense, I don’t get it either.

Dynasore Losers

Hot Take: The Losers should be in re-building mode.  Look, they low-scored this week, they were third bottom in points scored last season and bottom in potential points.  Their running back corps consists of two 30+ year-old guys and a random assortment of limbs.  His defence looks like it was assembled by accident.  It’s time to get over that deep-seated tradeophobia, ship out some of the top talent and stack picks for the next couple of drafts.  Re-building around Moncrief, Landry and that stable of young QBs is the way forward for the Losers and week 1 proved it.

Srsly? Yes.  The team lacks youth and depth and you’re relying on a very high hit rate in the draft to get out of that if you don’t sell assets and stack picks up.  Free Agency should improve in quality over the next few years so it’s not impossible to rebuild that way but if Slater looked to sell the likes of Wilkerson, Forte and Sanders he could go into the 2017 draft with 10+ good picks and maybe even get back into the first round.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Hot Take: The Firebirds will make it to the Owl again.  A week 1 victory against the reigning champs?  Check.  A monster defensive performance?  Check.  The renaissance of CJ Anderson?  Check.  A dominant offence?  Ch… wait.  Oh.  Lowest scoring offence this week, you say?  Only 5.94 points per starting receiver, you say?  Second worst QB performance after Kirk Cousins, you say?  Oh.  Look, the fact that Neil’s boys put up nearly 200 points and won their matchup despite a poor offensive performance is exactly why I’m backing them.  You think Snead will be on the bench next week?  You forget that the Seahawks offence often starts slow?  Geno Atkins and Ndamukong Suh won’t put up over 40 points every week but they won’t need to.  I can see this team going places.

Srsly? No.  Of course not.  Neil will probably trade away all of his good players for a second tier DE and a 5th round pick.

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

Hot Take: Braithwaite’s boys will be held back by weak running backs.  So, Gurley is a bust right?  OK, that may be an over-reaction but when the opposing defence can put ten players within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st and 10 because they know your QB can’t throw it further than that you’re going to be really up against it.  Apart from Gurley Chris is calling on Jamaal Charles (not healthy and coming back to a backfield dominated by Spencer Ware) and Jeremy Langford (just shit and only scoring points because there’s no-one better there yet) to do the business.  The rest of his RBs are long-shot rookies or backups and this could get ugly.  In week 1 they averaged 7.87 points per starter and 2.13 per player left on the bench (of which Shaun Draughn was the top scorer with his 16 yards and 1 vultured TD).  Gurley will have his big weeks but I don’t like any of the rest of these guys to produce consistently.

Srsly? Yes.  The hot take is harsh on Charles who isn’t the kind of player you don’t give a role to when healthy but I do think there will still be a big role for Ware all season long and that caps his ceiling.  Jeremy Langford’s best case scenario is that he keeps the job and continues to churn away his 3-3.5 YPC but any week he doesn’t get in the end zone is likely to be a low scorer.  Chris doesn’t have the TEs to only play 2 TEs and his best bet might be to hope for an injury to Rawls or Ryan Matthews to get Christine Michael or Kenjon Barner involved.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Hot Take: Kelkowski have one of the top three defences in the league.  3.58 per starter at DT/DE (7th in the league), 4.06 at CB (worst in the league) and 53.50 points total on defence (worst in the league).  Those stats should tell you everything you need to know to backup the point right?  Look, no-one’s going to pretend this defensive performance from Kelkowski wasn’t disappointing.  I imagine the men (man?) themselves had something to say to their players after the game but the reality is that the majority of this bad performance was down to a low-scoring secondary and a donut from Malik Jackson.  Every secondary in the league can have bad games, the position is very fickle, and Kelkowski have a good group full of potential.  Malik Jackson will start to rack up the points once he adjust fully to playing in Jacksonville and they still have one of the strongest groups of LBs in the league.  They’ll be fine.

Srsly? Yes.  This really is a very talented bunch who just had an off day.  Kelkowski were good in 2014, they were good again in 2015 and they’ll be good again this year.  Someone over there (presumably Ian because it’s almost certainly not Jay) knows what they’re doing.

Champions of the Sun

Hot Take: The Champions of the Sun will go from first to worst in Tim.  It was only a freakish performance from Ben Roethlisberger and DeAngelo Williams that even made this week 1 matchup with the Firebirds respectable.  The Champions scored ok on offence (largely due to the two already mentioned) but their much vaunted defence of last season did not show up at all.  Their 63.18 points was good for 8th worst and the main problem was upfront where their line scored a measly 1.75 points per player.  There was an average of 6.83 points per player on the bench but whether Cubberley has the nous to pick the right players week-on-week is seriously up for debate.

Srsly? Of course not, I’m a hustler baby.  Here comes Owl number 2!

Dynablaster Bombermen

Hot Take: Week 1 was a flash in the pan and the Bombermen will slide back to the pack and miss the playoffs.  The Bombermen were the best team by a country mile in week 1 with a whopping 13.72 points per player on offence (best in the league).  Their receivers racked up 85.8 points, only just missing out on the top 5 receiving performances of all time in the league.  So am I a crazy person?  That all depends on whether you think Melvin Gordon is going to get 2 TDs per fame when the Chargers are always playing catchup.  Or on whether you think Ryan Shazier (questionable for the weekend with a knee injury, again) can play regularly.  Or on whether you think Jordan Matthews is breaking out or if you think he was just up against the Browns.  There are obviously stars on this team (AJ Green, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, Greg Olsen) but I think week 1 was just right place, right time, their QBs are terrible and this kind of performance won’t be repeated every week.

Srsly? No.  Did you see the list of players I wrote down as the stars on the team?!  I even left some out.  The Bombermen are stacked.  They were many people’s favourites to win the Owl in 2015 and week 1 establishes them among the favourites to win it this year.

Weekly Stats

If I remember, I’ll post up a picture of the year’s average stats here when I do a blat.

Nothin' but the stats, ma'am.
Nothin’ but the stats, ma’am.

 

Weekly Peter vs Tim-watch: For two seasons now, Peter has been the Wallace Shawn to Tim’s Andre the Giant but could the tide be turning?  Every Stat Blat I will take a couple of lines to compare Peter vs Tim so we can all keep an eye on the situation.

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim.

Stew’s Pot Luck – Don’t Take Offence, It’s The Offensive Previews

Previews No Comments

Dynabowl offensive previews

 

East Flanders Dungeoneers

2015 record: 5-8 (8th)

 

With a lacklustre finish in 2015, EFD needs a strong start to have a shot at improving their record. There will be no better way to do this than with Cam at QB in the season opener. He’s a beast in the 4 point-per-passing TD format (amassing 636 rushing yards and 10 TDs in 2015) and Tannehill won’t get a look in.

 

The depth at WR is the other bright light. Allen, Cooper (1,070 yards, 6 TDs in 2015) and Marshall (1,052 yards, 14 TDs in 2015), are easy locks for starting at WR and should produce big things. Floyd is on a lot of breakout lists this season, though he could be anywhere from the 1st to 4th best receiver in an offence that brimmeth over with talent. White’s breakout hopes seem to be dwindling, so these starters need to stay healthy.

 

The RB core is a big of a dumpster fire. Carlos Hyde could be decent and showed some brilliance at the beginning of the 2015 season (182 yards and 2 TDs in week 1!). Rashad Jennings is probably a bit short of RB2 material, though he ended 2015 strongly (over 100 yards in each of the last four weeks) and should have more of a feature role in 2016 and improve on his 20th best RB ranking in 2015.

 

Fleener, while no Graham circa. 2014, is an excellent starting TE and an upgrade over Watson – he should take a good chunk of the points production at N’Orleans.

 

Final offensive prediction: 1-12 (10th place).

 

Here comes the Brees

2015 record: 6-7 (9th)

 

With a reasonable regular season record, I’m left wondering what happened in the post-season to finish 9th overall? I’m assuming it was horrible to watch and may have been, at least in part, due to the hubris and nemesis of Freeman (1,056 rushing yards, 11 TDs but only 4 yards per carry in 2015).

 

Things are looking bright at QB. Tom Brady (2nd best QB in 2015) is the single greatest player (nay person) to pick up a football and Andrew Luck should have a much better 2016 with an improved O-line and time to recover form the spate of injuries in 2015. With two starters after week 4, also potential for a nice trade here to help out at WR.

 

I love the RB depth with this team. Lamar Miller was wasted in Disneyland and is going to be a stud this season in Houston. Doug Martin (1,402 yards, 6 TDs) had an excellent 2015 and should pick up where he left off. There are question marks over whether Freeman can re-find the promise he showed pre-concussion but should be excellent. Sims is a quiet sleeper for me to pick up good all-purpose yards production, while Hightower is a valuable back-ups if Ingram goes down.

 

With the exception of TD machine Allen Robinson (14 TDs in 2015), the WRs are quite thin on the ground. Fitzgerald should have another nice 1,000 yard+ season and Dorsett is worth keeping an eye on, if Luck gets going and spreads the ball around to more than Hilton and Moncrief. I like Ertz at TE this season, a solid stand-in for Tylenol Eifert while he gets back to full health.

 

Final offensive prediction: 4-9 (8th place).

 

Tamworth Two

2015 record: 7-6 (2nd)

 

Oh to be back in 2015, when McFadden (1,089 rushing yards, 3 TDs) was doing what Randle couldn’t in Dallas, Stewart was over-delivering in Carolina (989 rushing yards, 6 TDs), Crabtree was dominating catches in Oakland (85 rec vs. Coopers 72), and we still assumed Peyton would be able to throw a ball to Thomas (1,304 yards, 6 TDs). At the start of the 2016 season, the team is looking a bit less shiny.

 

The position at QB is looking strong with two starters. Rodgers’ Packers will feel they deserve a Superb owl appearance, so should be … well, superb. I like Tyrod Taylor in 4 point-per-passing-TD formats. As long as Watkins (11 yards per target and 17 yards per reception in 2015) can remain healthy and productive, he will be a good starter, leading to some difficult starting line-up options some weeks.  

 

At RB, LeSean McCoy (17th best RB in 2105, but a disappointing 3 rushing TDs over 12 games) should be a solid RB1. After that, there’s a bumfight for RB2 spot. Duke Johnson could be a sleeper if Cleveland can remain competitive and he dominates touches in favour of Crowell.

 

There are two good starting WRs in Thomas and Jeffrey (807 yards, 4 TDs over 9 games), though both have their risks – new QB and injury/offensive ineffectiveness respectively. Crabtree is likely to be the third best receiver, but should take a step back in 2016 as Cooper shines. As long as he can keep the bulk of the redzone work, he should be ok though.

 

Not much to shout about at TE. Eric Ebron (537 yards, 5 TDs in 2015) is the obvious starter and should get a bump following the departure of Megatron but difficult to get too excited about based on an unexciting 2015.

 

Final offensive prediction: 2-11 (9th place).

 

TPRot4thD: Dynasty of Sadness

2015 record: 4-9 (6th)

 

The recent injury to Teddy Bridgewater was gruesome (flailing knee anyone) but with Brees (averaging 20+ fantasy points per game in 2015) taking the starting QB position  the fantasy impact for this team should be nil. Osweiler is a nice back-up if needed and has looked promising in the preseason. Goff will probably forget his own name so probably want to steer clear. Sweet tank though.

 

The depth at RB looks much improved with the addition of Elliot and Dixon (a good stash for week 4+). Elliot has all the signs of being a stud taking advantage of that O-line. I got burned by the Abdullah (pathetic 597 rushing yards and 6 fumbles) hype in 2015, so don’t have too much confidence in the Detroit RBs. Riddick’s (80 rec in 2015) role is pretty well defined on the passing plays and Zenner seems unlikely to provide enough production to start on a week-to-week basis, despite looking like the best RB in Detroit before getting injured.

 

At WR, “ODB” (1,450 yards, 13 TDs in 2015) is the shining light and should be amaze-balls. Despite no obvious number two, there is good sleeper value. Kenny Stills has been getting some attention in Miami, while Michael Thomas, Treadwell and Diggs are all good candidates to step into sizeable roles in 2016.

 

Delanie Walker (94 rec, 1,088 yards and 6 TDs) should be excellent this season in an improved Tennessee offence and Dwayne Allen should bounce back and be more productive following the Fleener departure – a nice decision to have to make each week.

 

Final offensive prediction: 8-5 (4th place).

 

Dynasore Losers

2015 record: 6-7 (7th)

 

This looks like a team that can grind out wins in 2016, but it won’t be pretty.

 

With about 1/10th of the salary cap going on four mid-range QBs, it might be time to rationalise with some blue-sky thinking to create a new paradigm. Carson Palmer (close to leading with 4,671 passing yards and 35 TDs in 2015) seems like the obvious starter, if he can stay healthy and take advantage of the WR talent in Arizona, though Carr (15th in 2015) and Winston (13th in 2015) may also be worth starting in a given week.

 

This team is shallow at RB. Peterson (1,707 all-purpose yards, 11 TDs in 2015) should get a lot of work to start the season, though I’d want McKinnon too should age and workload catch up with AP. I’m not optimistic about the rest. Forte (< 900 rushing yards, 7 TDs) seems likely to take another step back in 2016 and Blount (only 746 yards, but 7 TDs in 2015) might be a good starter but you really will have no idea week-to-week. I don’t see Washington doing much without an injury to Murray.

 

To balance this, the team looks great at WR. Jordy is back and will be a stud in the Bay. Moncrief (only 733 yards and 7 yards per target in 2015), seems to be on all sleeper lists everywhere always and his ADP has been creeping up, with good reason. Landry (1,270 all-purpose yards, 5 TDs in 2015) is a great pick in Miami, as long as Tannehill and the O-line hold strong in 2016. Gordon is an unknown, but after a promising preseason he could be great. To round it out, the WR2 position in Pitt is up for grabs and Coates seems a good candidate to run with it.

 

Nothing to shout about at TE – Graham (74 targets over 11 games) could be productive but needs to prove he can play a sizeable role in Seattle and Walford showed some promise and rapport with Carr in 2015, but would need to take a large step up to be worth starting.

 

Final offensive prediction: 6-7 (6th place).

 

DynaForOne Firebirds

2015 record: 4-9 (10th)

 

A disappointing 2015 record shouldn’t discourage this team for 2016 – they’re definitely my favourite to get a most improved award.

 

At QB, Russell Wilson (4,024 passing and 553 rushing yards in 2015) will be excellent with his hands and feet and should have a good shot at ending the season at number 1 and MVP. Rivers (4,792 passing yards in a league leading 661 attempts) throws a tonne is a decent stand in for the bye week and a sneaky choice when the match-up suits.

 

This is a damn fine bunch of RBs. The new, leaner Lacy (only 946 all-purpose yards in 2015) should be back on form after a disappointing 2015. Hopefully CJ Anderson (903 all-purpose yards in 2015) has shaken off his ankle troubles from last year. And despite the naysayers, I like Mathews – he has an inexperienced QB who will want to hand off and while he faces injury risk, this seems far overblown. Plus a mint week 1 match-up. Gore (12th best RB in 16 games and 260 attempts in 2015), could still be a workhorse in Indy and Rawls (6 yards per rushing attempt) could be useful, despite Seattle’s backfield shaping up to be an RBBC.

 

The WR bunch seems well thought through. Julio (1,871 yards in 20150 is the sole stud, and Edelman (37th best WR despie only playing 9 games) is great but with some patience there is a great chance that a few of the other WRs will emerge as top 20 WRs in 2016. My money is on Snead (984 yards in 2015) with a pass-heavy New Orleans offence, though Jackson and Sharp both have 2nd year QBs in offenses that should be productive in scoring points and chasing games. DGB is probably not going to do anything, but it would be cool to see him get going in Philly.  

 

Gronk-party boat-owski (1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 2015) is amazing, but you knew that.

 

Final offensive prediction: 11-2 (2nd place).

 

Dynablaster Bombermen

2015 record: 6-7 (5th)

 

When you’ best QBs are Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins (8th best QB in 2015 with 4,166 passing yards and 70% competion), difficult questions will be asked. Dak had a nice pre-season but I think Cousins will be the go-to guy, with a nice receiving core and an improving O-line. RGIII got named team captain, which is nice for him. Still, it’s the Browns though.

 

David Johnson (1,038 all-purpose yards, 12 TDs in 2015) will be fun to watch in Arizona and, if he lives up to anywhere near his ADP, will be a lock for 1500+ all-purpose yards and 12+ TDs. So that’s all good then. The memories of 2015 disasters past seem to be fading for Gordon (not a top 50 RB in 2015) and Hill (794 rushing yards, but 11 TDs!), though they might be difficult to trust week-to-week given the bust potential. Gio (21st best RB in 2015, 1,200 all purpose yards, 5 TDs)  should emerge as a decent match-up proof RB2 or flex behind that O-line.

 

At WR, AJ “turf toe” Green (1,297 yards off only 132 targets in 2015) is one of the most fun players to watch, as long it’s not prime-time. Cooks (12th best WR, 1,138 receiving yards in 2015) and Decker (10th best WR, 1,027 receiving yards but 12 TDs in 2015) should be very productive again in 2016. Benjamin may start slower than Funchess and Olsen, and rumours are he’s chubbed up a bit and is losing snap counts, so not sure what to expect there.

 

Greg Olsen (1,104 yards and 7 TDs in 2015) should have another solid season with plenty of red zone targets, you pretty much know what you get at this stage. It’s a shame, therefore, that Butt-catch Barnidge (1,043 yards and 9 TDs in 2015) will probably warm the bench.

 

Final offensive prediction: 9-4 (3rd place).

 

Champions of the Sun

2015 record: 11-2 (1st)

 

Congratulations to this team on their dominant record in 2015 and championship. However, I can see the crown slipping in 2016.

 

Big Ben (21st but almost 4,000 yards in 12 games in 2015) had an excellent 2015 and will be a fine fantasy starter in 2016, despite slipping in fantasy rankings. Not much in terms of back-ups here though, with Lynch losing the starter job to Siemian and may be third behind Sanchez also.

 

Bell is the clear RB1 from week 4, and Williams (1,274 all purpose yards, 11 TDs in 2015) should be an excellent fill in, with a great week 1 match-up to boot. I love Stradivarius Murray (10th best RB in 2015, with 1,298 all-purpose yards but only 6 TDs), who should pwn with an excellent O-line and a lot of production. Booker and McKinnon are both valuable handcuffs/trade bait for their respective starters. Like orange is the new Black, could White be the new Dion i(4 TDs in only 7 games in 2015) n New England? A good looking bunch.

 

And the fun doesn’t stop there. Hopkins (3rd most receptions and 1,521 yards in 2015) was a monster in 2015, despite a poor QB situation, so should see a great 2016 with the upgrade to Osweiler. Mike Evans (1,206 yards, 3 TDs) is the easy number WR2 despite a slightly disappointing 2015 on TDs and will be the clear centre-piece for Tampa Bay. Choosing the WR3 between Brown (21st best WR in 2015), Shepard and Tate (34th best WR in 2015) is a nice problem to have. At least one should emerge as a clear starter by week 3.

 

Jordan Reed (952 yards, 11 TDs in 2015) will be an excellent starter at TE, with Kelce (875 yards, 5 TDs) a decent replacement if the usual injuries hit.

 

Final offensive prediction: 7-6 (5th place).

 

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

2015 record: 6-7 (4th)

 

I think the decent showing in 2015 and I can see the good times keeping on rolling …

 

While the Bortles (4th best QB in 2015, with 4,428 passing yards but 18 interceptions in 2015) hype train is starting to slow down, he should be a reliable starter each week and, some weeks, will be great. Fitz-magic can be swapped in when the match-ups favour the beardy man. Kaep won’t be worth starting, but nice to have him on your team as a point of principle.

 

The shrewd addition of fantasy expert love interest Derrick Henry adds some great depth to the RBs, to back up Murray (1,024 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs in 2015). One of them should be a good producer in 2016 and my money’s on Henry. Mark Ingram (1,174 yards, 6 TDs in 2015) is a solid starter and, with the lingering knee issues for Charles, Ware will be a great starter for the Chiefs. Don’t fancy Blue (39th best RB in 2015), Foster or Yeldon (26th best RB in 2015) to do much given their all in backfield timeshares, but hopefully won;t need to start them unless things get desperate.

 

This team is loaded with high to low range WR2s. Cobb (28th best WR in 2015, 829 rec yards) should have a better 2016 since he should draw less coverage. Funchess is a good shout to lead the Panthers in receiving yards, Baldwin (7th best WR in 2015 with 14 TDs!) is just brilliant and Aiken (944 yards, 5 TDs) should produce again in Baltimore. Rookie Will Fuller is a neat addition to the team. His draft report warned he has skinny legs though, so watch out for that I think? I don’t really understand the excitement about Maclin (1,088 yards, 8 TDs in 2015) given the Chiefs’ running game will have improved significantly from 2015, but I might be an outlier here.

 

Either Jared Cook or Julius Thomas should be fine TEs this season, but nothing special.

 

Final offensive prediction: 5-8 (7th place).

 

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

2015 record: 10-3 (3rd)

 

I love this team almost as much as the name. It’s not a Christmas movie though.

 

At QB, Manning (10th best QB in 2015), Mariota (22nd best QB in 2015, but only 12 games in 2015) and Stafford (9th best QB in 2015) are all viable starters in 2016. Mariota is especially valuable in the 4-point-per-passing TD format and Stafford will probably only get better without the pressure to keep Megatron involved.

 

The depth at RB is attractive, with Gurley (1,294 all-purpose yards, 10 TDs in 2015) and Charles as two clear RB1s. Langford (816 yards, 7 TDs in 2015) has the chance of remaining productive if the Bears can keep games close enough to run the ball. Christine Michael could be the leading rusher in Seattle at the end of the season, though we’ve heard the hype before. Smallwood and Drake are neat additions, though Miami and the Eagles might be offenses tto avoid in 2016.

 

This is a team with two WR1s – Brown (1,834 yards and 10 TDs in 2015) and Dez; two WR2s – Hilton (1,124 yards and 5 TDs in 2015) and Watkins (15th best WR despite playing only 13 games in 2015); and two WR3s – Hurns (14th best WR in 2015) and Lockett. Plus Pryor! Absolutely loaded. TE is fairly thin, with a bumfight between Bennett or Rodgers to start. Neither will be great in 2016 though.

 

Final offensive prediction: 12-1 (1st place). Probably not a surprise, but this is my team to dominate and take home the Owl.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Pre-Season Peter Preview

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It’s nearly time for the new season of football and so it’s time to let the Stat Blats get all up in yo’ bidness and make you feel tingly.  Below is a combination 2015 season review and 2016 season preview for each team in Peter.  Want to know where the Sadness’ QBs ranked last season?  This is your place.  Want to know my opinion on whether the Breeses have improved their woeful linebacker corps?  Come on in friend!

Tamworth Two

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

106.3 points per game (ppg), 5th best in league

QB 18.52 ppg, 6th
RB 32.21 ppg, 4th
WR/TE 43.22 ppg, 8th
SPEC 12.35 ppg, 9th

Looking at the stats it’s clear that sub-par offensive performance was the thing that kept T2 from challenging more closely in the Owl.  When you pay Aaron Rodgers the big bucks you expect better than run-of-the-mill QB numbers but that’s what he put up last season.  There were mitigating factors though and, despite the fact he’s on another roster, they must have their fingers crossed hoping Jordy Nelson will be back in form this season.

RB was the Hogs’ strongest position last season riding the unexpected highs of Chris Ivory and Darren McFadden.  Run DMC is down the Cowboys depth chart now though and Chris Ivory is gone, leaving T2 looking sparse.  Jonathan Stewart is still pootling along and they have the Buffalo backfield sewn up tight but Duke Johnson is not someone I would want to be relying on for my third RB position.

Injuries to Alshon Jeffery and DeVante Parker hit Tamworth hard at WR last season and their 8th placed finish will be some way off what they’d have been hoping for at season start.  The bad news is that I don’t see where it’s improved.  Jarvis Landry, their WR1, is gone, DeVante Parker is, by all accounts, running hot and cold in camp and Demayrius Thomas will be catching balls from the Sanchize.  At TE there is hope for Eric Ebron and Virgil Green but neither are a sure thing for regular production.

Trending down

DEFENCE

82.23 ppg, 3rd best in league

DL 33.02 ppg, 1st
LB 25.83 ppg, 6th
DB 23.38 ppg, 7th

So if your offence isn’t great then how do you get to the final of the Owl?  Great defence.  Defence wins Owls.  The Hogs’ had a dominant line led by Kawann Short and Gerald McCoy, two of the best fantasy DTs in the business.  They’ve lost their best DE, Chandler Jones, to a position switch though and will be relying on the promising Stephon Tuitt and rookie Chris Jones to pick up the slack, a big ask.

The Hogs’ LB corps was a sea of pregnant potential and mediocrity, lifted by the transcendent talents of Luke Kuechly and the hard graft of Paul Posluszny.  The Pos has jumped ship for the coming season but the unexpectedly solid Whitney Mercilus should still produce and Jeremiah Attaouchu is poised to break it big.  Add to that the fact that the D-Line’s loss is the ‘Backer corps’ gain when it comes to Chandler Jones and things should keep ticking along nicely.

The Hogs were let down in the secondary by a poor showing from their safeties.  Kam Chancellor being motivated for a whole season may help but David Amerson will lose snaps at CB to Sean Smith in Oakland so there is a question mark about his ability to repeat last season’s good showing.

Steady

OVERALL

188.52 ppg, 4th best in league

The Hogs should see performance drop from last season.  The defence will still be there or thereabouts but the offence has taken a hit in the loss of Landry and Ivory.  If Aaron Rodgers can play like he’s paid he may make up for it.

Prediction: 6-7, 3rd in Peter

East Flanders Dungeoneers

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

104.17 ppg, 6th best in league

QB 20.97 ppg, 2nd
RB 26.22 ppg, 7th
WR/TE 44.24 ppg, 6th
SPEC 12.74 ppg, 8th

Being definitively the worst team on the Dbowl last season means it makes for slightly surprising reading to see that the Dungeoneers were middle of the pack in offensive terms.  Cam Newton’s rise to superstardom helped buoy the numbers no doubt, racking up the record highest weekly score for a QB in the process, and he should continue to raise his team for the coming season.

The RBs were a mess in East Flanders last year with Justin Forsett and Carlos Hyde both missing considerable time and forcing Pete Conaghan to rely on the likes of Ronnie Hillman and Darren Sproles.  Danny Woodhead was a consistently good performer though who at least made sure to keep Conaghan’s men from complete ignominy week on week.  The Dungeoneers have re-signed Rashad Jennings on a good deal and brought in T2 reject Chris Ivory to strengthen this season but will still rely on Woodhead for production.  A fit season from Carlos Hyde could make a huge difference however.

Amari Cooper, Brandon Marshall and Michael Floyd all put in good showings last season but a lack of depth behind those big names and a horror show at TE kept the Dungeoneers from putting up consistent good scores at receiver.  Things are looking much better this year.  Those three are all still in the fold and have been joined by a fully fit Kevin White and Keenan Allen plus rookie Josh Doctson.  The TEs are no better in terms of personnel but Coby Fleener escaping from Indianapolis to New Orleans hikes his ceiling way up.

Trending up

DEFENCE

63.80 ppg, 9th best in league

DL 15.64 ppg, 8th
LB 27.37 ppg, 5th
DB 20.79 ppg, 10th

If the Dungeoneers offence were surprisingly good for the worst team in the league then that can only mean one thing for the defence.  Look away now, Pete, it’s not pretty!  Tyrone Crawford was the star on the defensive line last year, turning in a top 10 performance.  There is absolutely no depth behind him however though if Sen’Derrick Marks can stay fit and work into the Jacksonville rotation significantly he offers some hope. Kony Ealy flashed his talent last season too and Conaghan will be hoping that the Panthers’ DE can step up to the next level this season.

When you’re only paying two of your LBs more than $3 and one of those two is Paul Worrilow your expectations for the unit are probably reduced.  Pete can be quite happy then with his middle-of-the-pack placing.  Astute signings of tackle machines Melvin Ingram and Malcolm Smith brought a good floor to the team and the likes of KJ Wright and Worrilow produced steady if uninspiring numbers.  The Dungeoneers’ prospects of improvement have been hindered by Shaq Lawson’s injury but the Justin-Houston-shaped hole in Kansas may open the door for Dee Ford and Vontaze Burfict’s suspension may put Paul Dawson in the mix.

What do you do when you have the worst secondary in the league and the top-scoring player in that secondary retires?  Nothing!  Apparently!  That’s not fair, Pete signed rookie safety Karl Joseph.  I’m sure he’ll be a good player down the line but expecting him to replicate Charles Woodson’s numbers in year one is probably asking a bit much.  The Dungeoneers are relying on the fickle nature of the secondary to provide a better result.

Steady

OVERALL

167.97 ppg, 10th best in league

I don’t think the Dungeoneers will finish the season as the worst team in the league again; the offence has the potential to put up top 3 numbers under the right circumstances.  Unfortunately, the defence is still a hot mess and will drag the team down.

Prediction: 5-8, 4th in Peter

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

102.06 ppg, 8th best in league

QB 14.98 ppg, 10th
RB 19.74 ppg, 10th
WR/TE 54.46 ppg, 2nd
SPEC 12.88 ppg, 6th

Well, if you’re not sure what an unbalanced offence looks like then there you go.  The problems at the QB position for the Sadness were largely self-inflicted as Mangboob’s love for Teddy Tinyhands prevented him from just starting Drew Brees in every game he was available for.  Brees averaged 20.28 points per game, a full 5 more than the Sadness did.  Even if you add in the fact that Teddy averaged 11.5 points in the two weeks Brees missed that is a clear case of overthinking it.  Mangboob should not make the same mistake this year.

Unfortunately, the Sadness’ struggles at RB cannot be blamed on GM tinkering.  It turns out that owning the entire Lions’ backfield is not conducive to fantasy success.  Eddy Lacy’s plummet off a cliff accounts for some of the underperformance here and Mangboob has lost patience with the player, shipping him out to the Firebirds.  He has been replaced by number 1 draft pick Ezekiel Elliott, one of the most hyped fantasy rookie prospects of all time.  Zeke and fellow rookie Kenneth Dixon add some spark to the position and Abdullah and Matt Jones could improve in their second years.  This is a young unit on a young team and should get better year-on-year.

In contrast, the Sadness’ receivers were stellar.  Led by superstar OBJ, even a down season for Dez Bryant couldn’t stop them marching to 2nd place on the receiver rankings.  Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Golden Tate and, surprisingly, Ted Ginn Jr turned in performance after performance over the season to keep scores high.  This season it’s all change with Dez, Tate and Decker gone but Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell, Michael Thomas and DeSean Jackson come in.  Mangboob is building for the future and while I would expect to see this unit decline this season they look strong for the future and improvement elsewhere should more than make up for it.

Steady

DEFENCE

77.18 ppg, 6th best in league

DL 14.66 ppg, 10th
LB 33.62 ppg, 3rd
DB 28.90 ppg, 5th

The defensive line is the real Achilles heel for a defence that is otherwise strong.  Mangboob has three players there and they are all nearly men.  Michael Brockers is a very good player but with the strength on that Rams’ line his play doesn’t equate to fantasy points.  Linval Joseph and Sharif Floyd are both similarly good players but Tom Johnson’s pass rush exploits on the interior limit their upside.  All are young and Joseph missed a few games with injury so Mangboob can hope for an improvement.  He’ll have to, because he has brought in no extra help for his tackles.  The viewing is even more bleak at Defensive End where no player scored over 80 points.  Sheldon Richardson is a talented idiot but the others are just not elite players.  The drafting of Robert Nkemdiche may help but he enters a crowded situation in Arizona and we will likely not see him emerge until at least 2017.

The linebackers at the Sadness, by contrast, are elite and dominant.  Lavonte David, Telvin Smith and Bobby Wagner are all top level talents on the field and on your fantasy teams and are young enough to provide for a few years yet.  Behind them, Danny Trevathan, Mychal Kendricks and Bruce Irvin feel like players on the cusp of a fantasy boom and with Trevathan and Irvin in new teams this season this year could be the year.

The secondary is a similar situation to T2’s linebackers: an average group of players propelled upwards by one stellar talent.  Tyrann Mathieu scored twice as much as most other members of the Sadness’ secondary last season and the rest were much of a muchness.  Sean Smith comes in this year and Eric Berry is re-signed to a better contract but question marks of Tyrann Mathieu’s health mean that last season’s performance probably remains the ceiling for this bunch.

Steady

OVERALL

179.23 ppg, 6th best in league

I don’t think this season will see much change for the Sadness.  They have lost elite level talent at WR but added a lot of young players and have a deeper pool of players to pick from.  A lot is riding on Zeke Elliott’s shoulders as far as this season is concerned.  If Mangboob decides to start Teddy Bridgewater all season long then all bets are off.

Prediction: 5-8, 5th in Peter

Dynasore Losers

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

99.75 ppg, 10th best in league

QB 16.56 ppg, 8th
RB 28.83 ppg, 6th
WR/TE 39.87 ppg, 10th
SPEC 14.49 ppg, 2nd

Hoo boy, it’s difficult to know where to start with this one.  The Losers’ WRs were a horror show last year.  Jordy Nelson injured, Josh Gordon failing to get reinstated, Emmanuel Sanders feeling the bite of the Peter-collapse, Torrey Smith left hopping mad by Colin Kaepernick and Nelson Agholor leaving everyone wondering what Chip Kelly deemed worth the 20th overall pick about him.  Add to that a wasteland at TE and it’s easy to see how this unit came out bottom in points scoring per game.  That kind of luck should regress back towards the mean this year and almost every player at this position should be better in 2016.  The loss of Larry Fitzgerald is a blow to the weekly floor of the group but Jarvis Landry, the Losers’ big blockbuster summer trade, covers that and more.  The Losers are a candidate to go from worst to first at WR in 2016.

A shallow group at RB left a lot on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte and it was enough to struggle to mid-table in the RB rankings.  David Slater is relying heavily on rookies Jordan Howard and DeAndre Washington to provide depth for the coming season though.  Dion Lewis is already out, surgery required on his knee, and AP and Forte are getting no younger.  This situation could get very unpleasant, very fast.

If that happens, Slater may look to trade in some of his excess talent at QB.  The group performed poorly last season with Peter Manning’s decline the headline event but this season should be vastly improved.  Andy Dalton is healthy, Jameis Winston is no longer a rookie and Derek Carr is heading into his 3rd year heading an offence going from strength to strength.  Add to that the free agency addition of Carson Palmer and this is a strong group that should be able to comfortably mix and match each week for the best matchups.

Trending up

DEFENCE

75.93 ppg, 7th best in league

DL 23.33 ppg, 5th
LB 20.27 ppg, 9th
DB 32.34 ppg, 3rd

A much-reduced year from Ryan Kerrigan was still the highlight of the LBs at the Losers last year as he was the only player to top 100 points.  David Slater put a lot of work into fixing the offence but this was another place that the Losers were giving points away on a weekly basis.  The free-agency addition of Paul Posluszny, plus the drafting of three rookie LBs shows that Slater recognised this fact and has moved to address it.  The group is still raw and has a lot of question marks but is an improvement over last season, albeit only a small one for this year.

A middle of the pack defensive line remains largely unchanged.  Carlos Dunlap was re-signed to resume a powerful starting tandem at DE but if one goes down then much will depend on 2nd year rusher Danielle Hunter of the Vikings.  Hunter looked excellent in limited snaps in his rookie year and Slater will hope that he can maintain that form into more snaps.

The strongest unit on the Losers’ defence remains largely intact though whether Marcus Peters can perform at the same level in year 2 is questionable.  Some regression to the mean is to be expected (players are rarely consistently at the top of the CB rankings) but the brothers Johnson (Kevin and Trumaine) and Logan Ryan should be able to offer plentiful depth.  At safety Slater will grind his teeth as he hopes for Michael Mitchell of the Steelers to remain steady and clasp his hands in prayer that Tashaun Gipson can recapture his 2014 Cleveland form in Jacksonville.

Steady

OVERALL

175.69 ppg, 8th best in league

Unless the Losers are struck by catastrophic bad luck again this year they should perform better.  The QB and receiver units can hopefully carry the RBs on offence and an improvement from 9th to 7th or so in the LBs would be enough to see the defence able to support.  I expect an improved year but not an Owl year.

Prediction: 7-6, 1st in Peter

Here Comes The Brees

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

111.22 ppg, 3rd best in league

QB 20.20 ppg, 3rd
RB 38.24 ppg, 1st
WR/TE 39.98 ppg, 9th
SPEC 12.81 ppg, 7th

If I’d asked at the start of last season which Dbowl team had the best RBs in the league would you have said the Breeses?  Come on now, don’t lie.  Doug Martin’s renaissance, Devonta Freeman’s explosion and a combination of Lamar Miller and (really) Isaiah Crowell left the team top of the pile.  All four of those players are back this year with the added depth of Charles Sims, Darren Sproles and a healthy Tevin Coleman.  The Breeses are set up nicely to repeat in 2016 and perhaps even improve though a predicted decline for Freeman and Martin after their monster seasons could throw a spanner in the works.

It’s a good job Archer and Sayles’ RBs were such a surprise smash hit because the receivers were a disaster. Injuries for Steve Smith, Breshad Perriman and DeSean Jackson left the team scrambling to field a decent unit and there were too many weeks of Pierre Garcon and Terrance Williams for anything to be salvageable.  Tyler Eifert was a ray of hope at TE, particularly with Zach Ertz providing depth.  The Breeses have gone all out this summer to rectify what is their problem position on offence with a host of bodies run through camp.  The big arrival was Martavis Bryant, right at the tail end of last season, but a year-long suspension buried that.  The new big arrival was Allen Robinson who has, incredibly, yet to get suspended or go on injured reserve for the entire season.  Larry Fitzgerald and Jaelen Strong also arrived and even with the departure of DeSean Jackson the unit looks better.  Phillip Dorsett comes into his 2nd year with a path clear to a starting job, Travis Benjamin lands in a friendly spot in San Diego and JJ Nelson is pushing in Arizona.

Even with Andrew Luck’s injury, the Breeses managed to get good QB production, largely thanks to Tom Brady with occasional spells of Fitzmagic.  Luck is fit this season, Brady is back (albeit suspended for the first 4 games) and Alex Smith is ready to step in in an emergency.  This unit should be top end producer again.

Trending up

DEFENCE

60.20 ppg, 10th best in league

DL 19.02 ppg, 7th
LB 18.39 ppg, 10th
DB 22.79 ppg, 8th

Well, that is ugly reading.  There were very few bright spots for the Breeses on defence after they traded away Aaron Donald.  Fletcher Cox had a breakout season at DE but the Breeses got unlucky mixing and matching between him, Cameron Jordan and Michael Bennett and too often the big points were on the bench.  For the new season though Fletcher Cox has moved to DT, solving that problem.  The Breeses should not PLOB themselves out of his points any longer.  Not least because, at time of writing, they have no other DTs on the roster.  Jordan and Bennett are still in place at DE, backed up by Jaye Howard and new boy DeForest Buckner.  I think we should see this unit move into the top half in the league but if Cox goes down there is (literally) nothing to cover for him.

Sheesh, if you thought the DL reading was bad, take a look at this shower.  In week 10 last season, the Breeses started Karlos Dansby, Daryl Smith, Jelani Jenkins and Derrick Morgan.  Not a collection to inspire fear in the opposition.  I’m not convinced this unit looks any better going into 2016.  Dansby and Pernell McPhee are good starters but 2nd year guys Shaq Thompson and Jordan Hicks are going to have to step up if there is to be any improvement.  It’s still a fairly uninspiring bunch.

At DB the Breeses suffered a blow when they lost Harrison Smith for the year but they got a nice surprise in the performance of DROY Ronald Darby who put up a nice tally.  There’s little to see here beyond that.  Earl Thomas is an amazing real-life safety and an average fantasy one and the rest of the unit were all much of a muchness.  This season the CBs are the same but the Ss get a little influx with the drafting of Von Bell and the signing of Barry Church but the inexplicable decision to drop Harrison Smith (the #1 safety in 2014) means that I can’t say this unit has improved.

Steady

OVERALL

171.42 ppg, 9th best in league

It’s easy to see that the Breeses have improved on offence.  A lot of their guys are starting the season healthier, more experienced or in better situations than last year and strength has been added, particularly to the wide receivers.  I can still see them being hampered by a defence, however, which seems to take a step back for every step it takes forward.  It won’t be the worst in the league again, but it will be a long way from the best.

Prediction: 7-6, 2nd in Peter

Guest Mock Draft by James ‘Goody’ Goodson of the Tamworth Two

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MOCK DRAFT! Get your MOCK DRAFT here! Roll up, roll up, ladies and gentlemen, see the astounding sights of the mock draft up close and personal (don’t worry, he won’t bite, but do keep your hands out of his cage…). Drum roll please, if you will, and introducing for your pleasure and delight, the mock draft stylings of Mr James ‘Goody’ Goodson.

Pick 1.01 and… The Sadness choose…
Ezekiel Elliot, RB.
Elliot will be the handcuff to Darren McFadden so taking the most pro-bowl likely RB makes sense. This means they’ll look at a franchise RB, and with Elliot they have a RB who does everything well. He’s in a tier on his own above everyone else on my board so he’s the 1st overall pick in this mock. They just hope DMC avoids getting injured so Elliot can secure RB1.

With pick 1.02 the Firebirds choose…
Corey Coleman, WR.
Another tough one as I think the Firebirds have better strength at WR than RB, but there is a real limited quality in long term value in RB, especially in this year’s draft. A dynasty franchise is set up around WR talent and Coleman pips Doctson. The latter being a better dynasty target as both Racist’s receivers are are expected to be FAs in 2017

With pick 1.03 the Dungeoneers pick..
Josh Doctson, WR.
As above, and if Doctson can bulk up I think he’ll be a very good solid receiver. He has good height and will offer good long term value offer excellent value

With pick 1.04 the Losers choose
Laquon Treadwell, WR.
Treadwell is my number 4 receiver, and I think David loves Treadwell. He’s a very good receiver. His tape shows off some fantastic competitive plays, from blocks to contested catches but, I just don’t think he is quite as good as Michael Thomas. While the Losers RB and WR depth is weighted towards the latter, a potential WR1 is too good to turn down in a dynasty league. He’s a good fit for the WR1 at the Vikings, usurping last year’s surprise package, Diggs as the season goes on. His lower speed won’t be an issue with Teddy’s noodle arm and short passes.

With pick 1.05 the Champions pick…
Michael Thomas, WR.
I love Thomas. I think Thomas could be better than Coleman, but he I think initially, he won’t be a viable fantasy option. He is great with contested catches and will be a nice addition to the Champions’ roster.

With pick 1.06 the Sadness choose…
Sterling Shepard, WR.
I love Sterling Shepard. He will be a legitimate WR 2 for the Giants and will be the perfect foil for OBJ. With the ability to play in the slot but underestimated outside, the best route runner in the draft will likely have a very high floor. The Sadness improve on their 2016 monopoly with an excellent safe pick.

With pick 1.07 Kelkowski pick…
Derrick Henry RB
While the landing spot of Henry won’t result in Kelkowski doing flips, the ability for him to take a lot of the possible red zone touches will be gratefully received at the Mahoney Memorial Stadium. While they haven’t replaced megatron, there is a clear dearth or top tier rookie relievers so this pick is a case of BPA. Don’t be surprised to see Kelkowski attempt to trade up a few spots.

With pick 1.08 The Sadness choose…
Kenneth Dixon, RB.
With Dixon joining Booker in, arguably, one of the best two landing spots, the Sadness make a sensible pick and choose my no. 2 RB.

With 1.09 The Firebirds select…
Devontae Booker, RB.
It’s a bit of a tough pick for the Firebirds. Booker allows them to secure the Denver running game, but doesn’t add much to their depleted RB personnel. They’ve already nabbed the best receiver on the ball and a great landing spot helps them take this pick with little fuss.

With 1.10 the Champions of the Sun pick…
CJ Prosise, RB.
This pick was to be either Prosise or Kenyan Drake of Miami. However I’m going for the upside that Prosise offers as Rawls may not be as fancied as previously thought. Procise can play all 3 downs, is a bit of a freak athlete and can be the receiver Rawls isn’t. 6th round Rawls can be cut with no cost next year at Seattle. 3rd Round Prosise makes sense here. Will Kenyan Drake hang around long enough for the Champions next pick?

With 2.01 The Sadness choose…
Tyler Boyd, WR.
Another freak athlete. With Sanu’s target to go around, the Sadness show can continue.

With 2.02 the Sadness pick…
Hunter Henry, TE.
The best Tight End in the draft who has been compared to Jason Witten. With this pick, the Sadness stockpile depth and take advantage of an ageing Walker on their roster and the expected slow break outs of Tight Ends. Don’t be surprised if the Sadness try to trade down to snag Jaded Goff as Qb is a need.

With 2.03 the Dungeoneers choose…
Paul Perkins, RB.
With a menagerie of backs in New York, Perkins is well suited to take the main carries off an ageing Jennings and a sub par back up committee. Music to the Dungeoneers ears as they have Jennings on their books.

With pick 2.04 The Losers choose…
Malcolm Mitchell, WR.
With superb character and a good landing spot to take on LaFells targets, the Losers pick up one of the safer rookie receivers in this draft who excels at route running, just what Brady likes.

With pick 2.05 the Firebirds choose…
Will Fuller, WR.
Surprised that Fuller fell so low in this draft, the Firebirds snag Houston’s deep ball threat. Fuller had one of the best yards after catch in college and could be a steal at 2.05

With pick 2.06 the Bombermen rock the boat and pick…
Jordan Howard, RB.
Strategically this may be a perfect pick. Langford was not impressive in Chicago with only 3.6 yards per carry and only forcing 7 missed tackles over the entire season. Now with a legitimate powerful back, the Bombermen stop their divisional rival getting stronger and improve upon their only decent RBs of Hill and David Johnson. Another option I was looking at, was Dynaharder trading up to 2.05 to grab Howard to avoid this situation.

At 2.07 Kelkowski pick…
Mike Thomas, WR
This is a great pick for Kelkowski. With very little competition in LA, and the natural ability for a spectacular catch, Thomas (the better Thomas in some people’s eyes) offers superb upside. With only gadget play specialist Tavon Austin to really offer any threat to targets, expect Thomas to perform above his expected pick to be a standout receiver.

At 2.08 Dyna Harder choose…
Wendall Smallwood, RB
With an ADP of 2.09 Wendall Smallwood is moving up boards. A natural runner with a lot of power, Dynaharder pick the Eagles’ Running back and trade with the Firebirds for Mathews to move down later in the draft. This is the best of a bad situation for Dynahard as they were relying on Howard hanging around until 2.08.

At 2.09 the TT choose…
Rashard Higgins, WR
The Cleveland WR graded out as one of the top receivers in 2014 by PFF and this fills a need of arguably the best team in the league who have no weaknesses.

At 2.10 Dynaharder pick…
Tajae Sharpe, WR.
Another well thought of receiver, Sharpe provides Dynaharder with some good depth in a great situation. With Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter only in front of him, Sharpe should get a good amount of targets as the year progresses.

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