Tag: D-Slatz

2015 Commish Preview: Dynasore Losers

Team: Dynasore Losers – David Slater

2014 Record: 8-5, 8th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Significant Additions:

Draft – Nelson Agholor (WR), Jameis Winston (QB), Sammie Coates (WR), Owamagbe Odighizuwa (DE)

Free Agency – none

Trade – none

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Jonathan Stewart (RB), Joe Flacco (QB), DeAndre Levy (LB), Lewis Kendrick (S)

Trade – Sheldon Richardson (DE)

Preview:

With $12 tied up in punters and kickers, the Losers have nearly three times as much money tied up in the real footballers than any other team, with three players on $3 or more, more than any other foot-based player in the league is receiving.

In 2014, the Losers clocked in 7th in punting points, more than 32 points behind Dyna Hard, the league leaders, and nearly 8 points off the league average. This obviously didn’t go down well in the corridors of Losers Central and so ace negotiators were dispatched with orders to sign Marquette King and Bryan Anger, the Hard punters in 2014, whatever the cost.That cost, as it turned out, was $6, 1% of the total cap and more than any other team is paying for their punters and kickers combined.

Anger has ranked 2nd, 1st and second in his last three years in the league, while King was 7th and then 1st in his two years so far. Loser’s GM David Slater will certainly be hoping that this level of performance continues, though both the Jaguars and the Raiders look to be improving on their performance over the last few years with better QB options and greater depth at receiver and, to a lesser extent, running back. If those offenses can get moving the points available from the punters will tail off and this move will prove to be a year too later.

Things look remarkably similar at kicker where the Losers have seen fit to offer a world record contract to Stephen Gostkowksi at $4 for 3 years with a $1 guarantee. Gostkowksi certainly represents good value for money, having finished 1st, 2nd and 1st over the past three years.

The Losers finished in 6th in terms of kicking points fielded in 2014, another 332 points off the lead where this time it was the Brees who fielded the league leading player the Losers targeted for poaching.

Justin Tucker was given only a $2 contract to back up Gostkowski and with his slowly decreasing perofrmance over the past 3 years you can see why. Tucker has fallen from 3rd to 6th to 9th amongst kickers in total points scored, and you know that the Losers won’t want to be relying on him too often.

Of course, when talking about kickers, one also has to consider what difference the rule changes will make this year. The PAT will now be taken from the 15 yard line where success drops by around 5% compared to the 2 yard line of old. That will mean fewer points available for kickers, with negatives being scored for misses. But in addition it may lead to more 2 point conversion attempts, reducing the scoring opportunities for kickers. As such, the 60 gain the Losers will have targeted may well not be available. All in all, this may have been a move made a year too later.*

Verdict:

There are undoubtedly some stars on this roster but a lack of depth on the offensive side of the ball may hinder the team. The defence certainly has strength but the random nature of defensive scoring means it can’t be counted on to win enough games. If the team gets the rub of the green, they could see a second consecutive run to the playoffs, otherwise it’ll be a case of looking towards the rookies developing to offer enough depth in future seasons. At the end of the day, the difference could lie in whether we see the Peter of 2013 and early 2014 or the Peter that finished 2014.

Prediction:

7-6 and in the mix to win the Division, but perhaps not strong enough to edge a team from Tim for a wild card. Being in the weaker Division means they could rack up enough wins there to mean results against Tim won’t matter and a playoff berth is secured, but I fear the lack of depth will result in a couple of losses due to bye weeks and a shock will come along at some point. At the end of the day they could be the number 2 seed in the playoffs by winning the Division or end up with the 4th pick in the 2016 draft.

*Fun Fact: If this move had been made last year, and if all those 64 extra points had been scored in week 14, the Losers still wouldn’t have won their playoff semi-final against the Firebirds.

Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

With the draft in the books, it’s time to take stock and work out what it all means… Pre-draft needs are taken from the 2.0 draft.

DynaHarder

Pre-draft needs: QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S

What you started with: 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 4.11, 5.01, 5.11, 6.01, 7.01. Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, DeAngelo Williams

What you ended up with: Toddy Gurley, Marcus Mariota, David Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Jeremy Langford, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, Bradley Pinion, TY Hilton

 

The worst case: An over-used running back, with a succession of muscle injuries and topped off by one few, if any, players ever completely recover from, on a team who’s line has been rebuilt after stinking out 2014… Gurley out T-Riches T-Rich. The least Whisenhunt QB ever, going to work with Ken Whisenhunt, and two depth options from a moribund offence offer no viable fantasy starters. In fact, in the worst case scenario, the only fantasy relevant starter in this draft is a punter. At least there’s TY Hilton, until he signs somewhere else next year.

The upside: Hilton doesn’t land in a bad spot when he leaves the Colts. Gurley’s injury doesn’t take much of his top end and he becomes the best thing in St Louis since Faulk. Mariota rejuvenates the Titans offence, and Cobb quickly moves to the top of the depth chart behind a line which improves a lot as Warmack finally harnesses his talent. Bell replaces Jackson, Forte leaves the Bears and Diggs develops into Teddy’s favourite target. Then you wake up.

Realistically: Mariota may never be a fantasy starter, but he fills the need at QB, Gurley and Cobb offer solid RB3 options and Hilton is a very good WR2. The needs at TE and S can be filled in free agency, with good options available there.

Dynasty of Sadness

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.

What you started with: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.12, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02. Calais Campbell*, Cam Newton

What you ended up with: Ameer Abdullah, Jaelen Strong, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Bud Dupree, Arik Armstead, DeAndre Carter, Zach Zenner, Eddie Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Markus Wheaton, Sheldon Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Paul Richardson*, Drew Brees

The worst case: You wasted your top pick on a back up, and have thoroughly sewn up a wholly worthless Detroit backfield. Robinson and Jones are gambles that don’t work out. Armstead is a project who never projects to anything and Wheaton, Williams and Osweiler don’t even make it through roster cuts. With no targets in the passing game Brees wastes the last couple of years of his fantasy relevance and Teddy never kicks on, leaving two QBs who rank just outside the top 10. A third concussion in three years leads to a long lay off and he returns a shadow of his best on limited workloads, meanwhile Amari Cooper tears it up and somehow this trade ends up looking like the Sadness got the worst end.

The upside: Lacy is the RB1 the Sadness needed and Abdullah quickly replaces Bell who’d plateaued at mediocre to become a good RB2. Strong is a solid WR2/3, Richardson and Dupree are defensive starters, Jones replaces Morris who leaves in free agency and Robinson replaces Gore in 12 months. Carter outperforms Perriman and Armstead develops into the beast his physical stature suggests.

Realistically: Brees fills the need at QB immediately, giving time for Bridgewater to develop, Lacy is a definite filler for RB1. The need at TE could be filled in the medium term with a free agent rookie and Sheldon Richardson is a solid starting DE2. Dupree fills a need at LB and could play from year one. Need at DT remains. The Sadness are definitely improved in the draft, but for all the trading, they ended up with the same number of picks they started with and a lot of the trade pieces were middling at best.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pre-draft needs: RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.

What you started with: 1.03, 2.03, 2.11, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 6.03, 7.03. Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Steve Smith*, Brock Osweiler, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

What you ended up with: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devin Smith, Mike Davis, Rashad Greene, Paul Dawson, Cam Newton, Keenan Allen*, Vernon Davis, Darren Sproles, Ryan Tannehill

The worst case: You traded away a legitimate RB1 at pennies on the dollar, bringing in wide receivers who will get thrown the ball (sideways) by Derek Carr, Genome and sulky Jay Cutler (until he’s cut next summer). Cam is a busted flush, who isn’t a viable fantasy starter without running and Tannehill is not Brees. Keenan Allen turns out to be the guy from 2014, rather than 2013 and Vernon Davis and Darren Sproles are only starting because they play for the Dungeoneers.

The upside: Both Cooper and White hit big early, and given a couple of years Devin Smith develops into a viable starter when the Jets find a QB. Cam’s pocket passing develops, but he remains a big threat on the ground, and a top 5 QB, while Tannehill becomes good tradebait for a QB-needy team. Both Clay and Davis are solid TEs at least for the short term and Levy remains a top tier LB for a few more years. Gore turns out to be actually invincible as has long been suspected.

Realistically: At best one of Cooper and White develops into a top tier WR1/2, but the other is serviceable as a 3rd receiver. Yes, the team sucks this year, but that just puts them in a good position to get a good RB in 2016. Paul Dawson should be a fine ILB, and Keenan Allen’s true worth is probably as a decent WR2, regardless of which, stealing him for Steve Smith was a stroke of genius. Defensive End is still a problem.

Tamworth Two

Pre-draft needs: WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.

What you started with: 1.04, 2.04, 3.04, 4.04, 5.04, 6.04, 7.04. Markus Wheaton, Vernon Davis, Orlando Scandrick, John Brown, Darren Sproles

What you ended up with: DeVante Parker, Duke Johnson, Vic Beasley, DeAndre Smelter, Cameron Artis-Payne, Landon Collins, Denzel Perryman, Karlos Williams, Darren Waller

The worst case: The bust rate on first round receivers is massive, and even if Parker doesn’t bust, there’s no guarantee he is anything more than a low end fantasy starter or flex in Miami’s uninspired offence. Smelter is a reach who never becomes relevant, Johnson is part of a committee and Artis-Payne and Williams only handcuffs. A defensive starter or two don’t make up for the misses on offense, meanwhile John Brown lights it up for the Champions of the Sun.

The upside: Parker works well underneath in Miami’s new offence and gets volume yardage as well as red-zone action. Johnson establishes himself as the main back in Cleveland and Beasley, Collins and Perryman all serve their teams well. Smelter needs time but becomes a flex option, replacing Boldin, while Williams and Artis-Payne back up the main men on Tamworth Two just fine.

Realistically: Parker is probably a WR2 at best, with his viability underneath and in the red zone making him a good option for Tannehill who doesn’t have the arm to make good deep throws. Johnson is in a committee in Cleveland, but could end up being the main part of it, either way, he’s probably a low end RB2 at best. Beasley should be a viable DE and Perryman and Collins could also be viable positional starters. John Brown might be the new TY Hilton, but without Andrew Luck that doesn’t mean much.

Champions of the Sun

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2/3, WR3.

What you started with: 1.05, 2.05, 3.05, 4.05, 5.05, 6.05, 7.05. DeSean Jackson, Paul Richardson*, Da’Norris Searcy, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee.

What you ended up with: Jay Ajayi, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr, Thomas Rawls, Bernardrick McKinney, Hau’oli Kikaha, MyCole Pruitt, Michael Bennett, Marcel Dareus, Calais Campbell*, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, John Brown

The worst case: Ajayi never displaces Lamar Miller, Williams is used situationally, Fowler never makes it to the NFL due to injuries, Dareus moves to nose, Helu disappears into Oakland’s depth chart much as he did in Washington, neither of the Browns are viable starters and Michael Bennett is more of a nose alongside San’derrick Marks. Lots of flex players, but few starters.

The upside: John Brown is the new TY Hilton with Palmer back, Dante Fowley and Williams develop into top tier NFL ends, and MyCole Pruitt takes over as the Vikings Tight End. Dareus ends up with all the play of an end, while remaining a DT by position on MFL.

Realistically: Having traded down and then out of the first there wasn’t a potential star available, and picking up the best two defenders in the mid rounds represents value, if not necessarily guaranteeing any success. Ajayi might be short term due to injury concerns, but it’s a short term position anyway, and with bell leading the RBs there’s  no need for him to be a star. Rawls is a wasted pick, but gives you a monopoly on the Seattle running backs who never actually play.

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Pre-draft needs: ‘elite’ players.

What you started with: 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 4.13, 5.06, 6.06, 7.06. Danny Lansanah, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Steven Jackson*

What you ended up with: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Justin Hardy, Trae Waynes, Shane Ray, Grady Jarrett, Trey Flowers, Christian Ringo, Jeremy Hill, Orlando Scandrick

The worst case: Gordon ensures control of a San Diego backfield that sucks, his tendency to bounce outside and get tackled for a loss, relying on speed to beat sub-par college players proves unsurprisingly unsuccessful in the NFL. Conley discovers why Kansas receivers didn’t score a TD at all last year, Hardy is the new Harry Douglas while David Johnson ensure Arizona’s committee of mediocrity is maintained. With Green returning and Bernard fitter, Hill ends up part of a committee also, although not as mediocre as the one in Arizona, neither Bernard nor Hill are much more than RB2s.

The upside: Hill, Ellington, Johnson and Bernard fall into more traditional 1/2 roles giving 2 good starters, Conley shows the reason why KC didn’t score touchdowns was a lack of talent, rather than Alex Smith & Andy Reid and Gordon is the game-changing playmaker the Chargers traded up for. Waynes is a solid selection at CB, and Scandrick makes up a starting pair at the position with him.

Realistically: There’s probably an RB1 somewhere in the mess of Ellington, Hill, Bernard, Johnson, Oliver and Gordon, but whether there’s more than one is hard to call, and they could easily all get in each others ways. Conley and Hardy are upside picks, but both probably top out at WR2 or WR3. Shane Ray could be a decent DE in a year’s time, but might not offer much immediately. Hill and Gordon offer the best chance of hitting on an elite player and Green’s return to fitness should provide one at WR, but ultimately, the need to find an elite player or two probably wasn’t met in this draft.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Pre-draft needs: QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.

What you started with: 1.07, 2.07, 3.07, 4.07, 5.07, 6.07, 7.07.

What you ended up with: TJ Yeldon, Devin Funchess, Stephone Anthony, Randy Gregory, Danny Shelton, Ahmed Brooks

The worst case: Gerhart takes over the Jags backfield making Yeldon wait. Funchess’ lack of pace combined with Cam’s erratic throwing make for a poor combination, Anthony barely plays, Shelton is a nose and Randy Gregory is a bit too much of a prick for the cowboys to stomach.

The upside: Gregory is a solid steal in the middle rounds, and Anthony blossoms with improved scoring for inside backers. Funchess is an Olsen like workable WR2, and Yeldon gives the Jags a proper running back threat, it not at elite one.

Realistically: There’s still a need at Tight End, and Shelton (being a Nose) is probably not going to fill the need at tackle. Projecting Anthony as an LB1 in the short-term seems a streatch, and the need at QB was not filled due to Kelkowski not recognising the danger when the Losers traded up. Yeldon might be a starter at RB, but there wasn’t too serious a need at the position anyway, so he might end up being a reasonable chip for a trade. Funchess could go either way, but projects as at best a bench option in a fairly limited Panthers passing attack.

DynaSore Losers

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB

What you started with: 1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08, 5.08, 6.08, 7.08. Sheldon Richardson.

What you ended up with: Nelson Agholor, Jameis Winston, Sammie Coates, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Clive Walford, Jake Ryan, Danielle Hunter

The worst case: Agholor dropped for a reason, and that reason was Sam Bradford, who isn’t good before he gets hurt and is Mark Sanchez after. Coates never gets a look in at Pittsburgh and Odighizuwa never replaces JPP. Winston meanwhile is every bit as good as advertised and becomes the best quarterback serving time in federal prison, trading Richardson for him turns out even worse as the massive hole at DE goes unfilled.

The upside: Winston is every bit as good as advertised in the NFL, proving to be almost as good as Luck and replacing Manning for 2016 in the Losers starting QB slot. Agholor develops into a WR1 due to his ability to turn routine plays into huge gains and be a threat in the red zone. Coates meanwhile shows his big game talent regularly, replacing Bryant and Wheaton as a clear #2 option for Roethlisberger. Ryan and Odighizuwa are solid defensive starters from the early days and Walford is a decent bench option at TE.

Realistically: There’s a hole at DE that Odighizuwa won’t fill in 2015, and Hunter is even less likely to. No viable tackle is found and the weaknesses in defence undermine the team by costing silly points each week. There is a serious lack of depth at RB, and even covering bye weeks, let alone injuries, will be tough.

Here Comes the Brees

Pre-draft needs: RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S

What you started with: 1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09. Marcel Dareus, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, Keenan Allen, Martellus Bennett

What you ended up with: Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Maxx Williams, Shaq Thompson, Garrett Grayson, Jordan Hicks, Steven Jackson*, Steve Smith*, DeSean Jackson, Danny Lansanah, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee

The worst case: Perriman, Dorsett and Williams offer little to nothing in 2015, and don’t exactly light it up in 2016 either. Jackson remains the boom/bust receiver who misses 2-4 games a year with injuries. Owning the browns backfield is as worthwhile as it would seem and Coleman is a RB2 in the good years. Keenan Allen refinds his 2013 form.

The upside: Coleman establishes himself early and for a number of years as an RB1-/2+ and Perriman replaces Smith fairly seemlessly as a WR2-/3+. Williams is a solid tight end with a QB who loves throwing to him, and establishes himself as a solid TE1 and Dorsett’s talent sees him work his way into the team in 2015, with Hilton barely missed in 2016. Marquise Lee becomes a good depth receiver with his fitness issues overcome.

Realistically: There were a lot of players drafted, but this is a long-term sort of draft. Tight Ends rarely offer much in year one, Dorsett doesn’t offer much hope of a strong first year and Baltimore’s offence is hardly electric, suggesting Perriman will need time also. Ultimately this draft was one to position the team to be more competitive in 2016, and Dorsett, Perriman and Coleman should do that. 2015 will likely be rough though.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Pre-draft needs: DE1, LB, CB, S

What you started with: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7.10. Jeremy Hill, TY Hilton, Ryan Tannehill

What you ended up with: Dorial Green-Beckham, Eric Kendricks, Javorius Allen, Mario Edwards Jr, Henry Anderson, Bryce Petty, Martellus Bennett, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

The worst case: Trading starting offensive pieces for middling offensive and defensive starters is a tactic that backfires. Bennett is an expensive back-up for Gronk if he stays fit and a poor replacement if he doesn’t, Edelman isn’t going to replace Jones if he gets injured (again), and Ogletree is an upgrade at LB but at a stiff price. Kendricks is an ILB and doesn’t crack the top 20 LBs any time soon, Allen is the 3rd RB in Baltimore and DGB is nowhere on the Titans depth chart. Henry Anderson joined one of the worst rushing defences in the NFL.

The upside: Anderson becomes the pass rush in Indianapolis and the upgrades on defence offer more to the Firebirds than they lose on offence. Edelman is a good WR2, with Jones fit ahead of him and Hill isn’t missed because Lynch and Anderson carry the rock effectively and a lot.

Realistically: If / when Jones gets an injury the team will suffer as Edelman simply doesn’t have the potential to put up WR1 points that Hilton did and while Hill won’t be missed with Anderson and Lynch putting up solid RB1 points it’s likely that the points gained on defensive upgrades such as Ogletree and Levy only balance those lost on offensive players, with the team overall showing more variance in scoring and losing one or two more games in down weeks as a result.

 

What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Defence)

This is the part Manboob has been waiting for – the safeties (and the rest of the defence). So without further ado, let’s get straight into it…

While it might seem sensible to go deeper and consider the 2nd and 3rd rounds, it’s ultimately too low a contract in the third round and the range of players it brings in makes it a bit of a crap shoot to go that low and hope for anything more useful to arise from it.

Defensive Ends

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01 $20, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Mario Williams
171.50
145.00
157.75
158.1 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.02 $19, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014
Cameron Wake
Greg Hardy
Robert Quinn
165.75
144.50
155.75
155.3 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
5 2012
2013
2014
John Abraham
Muhammed Wilkerson
Jerry Hughes
164.50
138.85
137.50
147.0 Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
1.08 $13, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Antonio Smith
Cameron Jordan
Everson Griffen
147.75
138.00
131.75
139.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Carlos Dunlap
Chandler Jones
Demarcus Ware
147.15
137.25
130.05
138.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.10 $11, 4 years 9 2012
2013
2014
Michael Bennett
Carlos Dunlap
Carlos Dunlap
133.75
132.75
125.50
130.7 Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
10 2012
2013
2014
Jared Allen
Jared Allen
Calais Campbell
132.50
130.75
118.80
127.4 Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
Trent Cole (127.88)
Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
12 2012
2013
2014
Mario Williams
Osi Umenyiora
Chris Clemons
131.25
124.80
113.75
123.3 Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014
Cameron Jordan
Rob Ninkovich
Charles Johnson
130.50
119.25
113.00
120.9 Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
Kevin Carter (115.09)
Cameron Wake (114.91)
Cliff Avril (114.87)

Financially speaking you’d be paying a defensive end more than everyone except Quinn and Watt, so at the very top of the draft you’d be looking for a seriously talented player and any end taken in the first two rounds should be a viable starter over a 4 year period.  One thing to consider when taking an end is that this is a position where the best players have good longevity – Peppers, Allen, Suggs, Watt, Freeney are guys who’ve been good since they joined the league and they have been good for a long time since.

Defensive Tackles

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
1 2012
2013
2014
Geno Atkins
Kyle Williams
Ndamukong Suh
254.00
204.50
201.50
220 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
1.05 $16, 4 years 2 2012
2013
2014
Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Aaron Donald
197.00
180.25
188.00
188.4
1.06
1.07
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
3 2012
2013
2014
Nick Fairley
Nick Fairley
Sen’Derrick Marks
150.25
172.00
177.50
166.6 Reggie White (173.41)
1.08 $13, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014
Henry Melton
Ndamukong Suh
Marcel Dareus
132.50
152.00
166.00
150.2 Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
1.09 $12, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
Gerald McCoy
Marcel Dareus
Gerald McCoy
132.25
134.00
157.75
141.3 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
1.10 $11, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Kyle Williams
Jason Hatcher
Johnathan Hankins
132.25
126.75
131.25
130.1 Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
Chandler Jones (131.5)
Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammad Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
7 2012
2013
2014
Dwan Edwards
Cullen Jenkins
Stephen Paea
112.75
122.00
127.25
120.7 Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammed Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
Vince Wilfork
Sen’Derrick Marks
Kyle Williams
111.00
118.25
121.20
116.8 Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
Sheldon Richardson (117.88)
Bryant Young (115.77)
Tony McCoy (115.1)
Vonnie Holliday (113.99)
Jim Flanigan (113.97)

There’s a little bit of cross-over between tackles and ends, but basically any pick in the first two rounds would need to be a clear starter over the four years of their contract, even at the back end of the second round. Guys who’ve been at the top of the scoring in recent years don’t feature in the list of rookies, and that suggests that even the best DTs don’t necessarily perform well from their first days in the league. All told, spending even a late second round pick on a DT is going to be a stretch.

Linebackers

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
4 2012
2013
2014
Lawrence Timmons
Navorro Bowman
Clay Matthews
168.25
198.55
156.50
174.4 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
1.03 $18, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
Zach Brown
Jerrell Freeman
Connor Barwin
165.10
185.05
155.25
168.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.04 $17, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Demarcus Ware
Alec Ogletree
Jamie Collins
164.75
173.55
155.25
164.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.05 $16, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
Rob Ninkovich
Daryl Smith
Lavonte David
155.50
165.10
146.50
155.7 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
1.06 $15, 4 years 11 2012
2013
2014
Justin Houston
DeAndre Levy
Junior Galette
139.25
149.90
130.25
147.2 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
1.07
1.08
1.09
$14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years
14 2012
2013
2014
Lance Briggs
Danny Trevathan
Terrell Suggs
137.30
144.95
130.00
139.8 Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
1.10 $11, 4 years 15 2012
2013
2014
Ryan Kerrigan
Vontaze Burfict
Luke Kuechly
137.30
144.95
130.00
137.4 Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
17 2012
2013
2014
Shaun Phillips
Ryan Kerrigan
Brandon Marshall
136.50
143.75
121.00
133.8 Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
2.05
2.06
2.07
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
19 2012
2013
2014
Rob Jackson
Brian Orakpo
Bruce Irvin
132.65
136.65
116.40
128.6 Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
2.08
2.09
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
21 2012
2013
2014
Derrick Johnson
Derrick Johnson
Danny Lansanah
128.25
134.40
113.50
125.4 Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 22 2012
2013
2014
Luke Kuechly
Trent Cole
Jason Worilds
127.50
133.50
113.00
124.7 Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
LaMarr Woodley (119.65)

Let’s face it, you’d have to be a little nuts to blow a top 10 pick on a Linebacker, not that they’re not capable of delivering value for that, but they lack the upside of an offensive player. All of which said, a second round linebacker would be looking at producing a starter’s performance over 4 years, but as a 2nd or 3rd best on your team in that role, and unlike DTs there’s plenty of recent comparators to suggest there’s value to be had. With more teams transitioning to 3-4 defences, outside guys playing as pass rushing ends can represent good value with DE-type performance at an LB price and as with DEs, there’s enough in the comparative rookies to suggest that a good LB is a decent long-term option at the position who can produce for years. Unlike ends however there’s not really the late round breakout stars, if they’re not taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft then they quickly drop into fantasy irrelevance.

Cornerbacks

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
N/A N/A
1.06 $15, 4 years 1 2012
2013
2014
Aqib Talib
Brandon Boykin
Charles Tillman
234.60
159.48
140.45
178.2 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
1.07
1.08
1.09
$14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years
2 2012
2013
2014
Richard Sherman
Deangelo Hall
Kyle Fuller
204.20
157.65
132.35
164.7
1.10 $11, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Tim Jennings
Richard Sherman
Vontae Davis
178.35
151.95
130.15
153.5 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
4 2012
2013
2014
Patrick Peterson
Alterrun Verner
Brent Grimes
159.85
142.28
128.00
143.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
6 2012
2013
2014
Janoris Jenkins
Tramon Williams
Joe Haden
155.55
135.50
123.75
138.3 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Casey Hayward
Captain Munnerlyn
Jason McCourty
142.85
130.85
123.50
132.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
Kyle Fuller (129.65)

Well, this is painful. There’s no corner in the league on more than a top 5 pick, and you’re looking at any corner taken in the first two rounds being a bad value pick who’s going to have to immediately produce great numbers, and even at the end of the second round you’re looking at guys who’d be in the top 5 rookies of the last 20 years. One thing to note, as with the linebacker position, there’s a pretty clear drop in the performance of players picked after the first two rounds, and despite the well-known stories about Sherman and the Seahawks finding great backs cheap in the late rounds, this is the exception rather than the rule, and in the case of Sherman a significant exception at that.

Safeties

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
2 2012
2013
2014
Jairus Byrd
Troy Polamalu
James Ihedigbo
155.35
161.35
150.10
155.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.03 $18, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Reshad Jones
Antrel Rolle
Mike Adams
144.35
160.80
140.90
148.7 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
4 2012
2013
2014
Eric Weddle
Michael Mitchell
Glover Quin
139.60
141.55
139.70
140.3 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
1.08 $13, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
LaRon Landry
William Moore
Rashead Johnson
135.95
139.35
137.35
137.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Thomas DeCoud
Earl Thomas
Tashaun Gipson
132.90
130.85
131.80
131.9 Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
1.10 $11, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
William Moore
TJ Ward
Charles Woodson
131.35
126.95
124.90
127.7 Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
10 2012
2013
2014
Danieal Manning
James Ihedigbo
Reggie Nelson
124.35
123.15
120.90
122.8 Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
2.05
2.06
2.07
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
11 2012
2013
2014
Morgan Burnett
Charles Woodson
Kemal Ishmael
123.35
122.30
118.45
121.4 Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
2.08
2.09
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
12 2012
2013
2014
Major Wright
Eric Weddle
Ryan Mundy
122.25
118.75
116.95
119.3 Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014
Michael Griffin
Aaron Williams
Kendrick Lewis
122.15
115.80
116.20
118.1 Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
Anthony Henry (115.88)

Given Manboob’s love of the high-price Safety, it’s not a surprise to see you could just about justify the top pick of the draft on one. That said, it would only be justified if you could pick Ed Reed, who might just be the best Safety in the history of the NFL. Even then, you’re talking about only just justifying the price tag. All of which said, by the end of the second round a safety is not a terrible pick. I personally wouldn’t – the opportunity to get a good DE or DT there is solid, and the spread of players at relatively makeable scores suggest that it wouldn’t be hard to find any Safety to fill a roster gap, but they’re not an unreliable pick and can score reasonably well from the early part of their careers, with less pressure to be a top guy straight away compared to the cornerback market. Of course, it’s entirely possible this is more a reflection of the insanity of the Dynabowl’s safety market, rather than a real value statement.

Ultimately, there’s no real evidence to suggest that selecting a defensive player in even the first round makes a good value pick, any player picked is going to need to justify not just a roster spot, but a regular starting spot in his first couple of years. But, by the middle of the second round, they’re definitely players to start thinking about and at positions like CB, S and Linebacker where the performance of high picks v lower ones suggests NFL teams are pretty handy at drafting players it’s possibly worth considering reaching and over-paying (as long as you aren’t in a terrible cap situation) simply because there’s such a strong correlation, compared to other positions, between draft pick and rookie success.

Mock Draft 2.0 – DSlatz Stat Attackz Version

D-Slatz takes his turn analysing team needs and picking the first 31 men off the board.

1. DynaHard – needs QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S.
Picks 1, 11, 22, 32, 42, 45, 55, 56, 66

DynaHard’s biggest need is at TE, where the current options are beyond uninspiring. Finding the right tight end might be tricky though with no particularly stand out options. The 32nd pick might be the right time to take a gamble on whichever tight end the Saints grab in the middle rounds. If the best tight-end lands in a decent situation, this would be a solid pick.
Similarly, a potential top 3 QB would upgrade the roster significantly, but QBs need time. Winston is the better pocket passer and better NFL QB, if he’s available at 11 then he’d be a great pick up. If not Mariota should be available and would be worth considering, particularly if someone like San Diego trades up to get him. Garret Grayson with a late pick may offer a nice risk/reward option if he lands somewhere he can play, such as Buffalo, and will probably be available with a late pick (50+).
Antonio Brown is a clear number one receiver, but after him Edelman and Watkins are below-average second receivers. Watkins showed flashes and definitely has room to improve, but he’s got a run-happy coach and a terrible QB, so there is no guarantee that improvement will come any time soon. Given the league’s increasingly pass-happy direction and the ability of rookie receivers to make an impact almost immediately, taking the best WR is the ideal use of the #1 pick. Cooper should land at the Raiders with a young QB who showed plenty of promise last year, but if White ends up with the Giants or Chicago, he’d surely be the better selection of the two.
The Running Back position is intriguing. Given the cap situation Charles could be a casualty if the right offer is made, if he is, that makes the RB position a definite need, but currently Charles and Morris represent a fine 1 / 2 combination and with Mathews, Randle/Dunbar and Sankey on the roster a solid RB3 option could easily develop. If the intention is to trade, Gurley would be another option with the top pick, however rookie RBs have generally struggled, and highly touted young RBs have struggled to make either an immediate or extended impact. In what looks like a deep and talented RB class, mid-round picks like TJ Yeldon and Tevin Coleman could easily land in good situations and have immediate impacts, and would offer great value if they can be got with the 32nd, 42nd or 45th picks.

2. Dynasty of Sadness – needs QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.
Picks 2, 12, 15, 23, 33, 43, 57, 67

If Carolina can do a better job of protecting Cam and letting him make plays he should turn back into a top 10 QB. In that situation, this is a lower need position that could be filled with a late round flier on Hundley, or possibly with Mariota at 15 if he’s still available.
The most pressing need is at RB, and going to the well twice for Gurley / Gordon in the first round and Jay Ajayi in the second is definitely an option. While wide receiver isn’t a need, there’s a definite temptation to pick the best WR available as they may well be the best and most reliable pick you could make in the first round.
There really isn’t a great tight end option, and a mid-round pick based on the situation a developmental TE finds themselves in might be a better option than spending a high pick on the ‘best’ Tight End.
Williams is not necessarily seen as a top, top tier talent at DE, but is the best defender in the draft and would represent a solid long-term option at DE, even if he ends up a Titan. He could be an option with the #2 pick, but it would probably be a bit of a reach given the need at RB. There is so much depth among the end position that potentially good options like Eli Harold, Preston Smith or Alvin Dupree will be available later in the draft and it may be better to look for a slightly worse player who lands in a great situation to play early and often. If Shane Ray or Dante Fowler is still around in the middle of the second round, they’d be great pick ups.
Danny Shelton at DT is also a potential second round option, but it’s a pretty deep draft for tackles, and someone like Arik Armistead who has all the physical tools to play the position if he can land with a coach, like Tomsula or Ryan, who can help him piece it together would represent great value in the late rounds.
It’s not a great draft for safeties, but that may not prevent the Dynasty spending their top pick on one.

3. East Flanders Dungeoneers – needs RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.
Picks 3, 13, 21, 34, 47, 58, 68

The Dungeoneers have reloaded well in free agency, but there just aren’t the options to get a great receiver in free agency, and likely won’t be soon. That means that the draft is the best way to find an elite receiver. Ideally the Dungeoneers would look to trade everything to get back into the top of the first round and take both White and Cooper at 3 and 4 and expect one of them to become an elite receiver. However that seems unlikely to happen, so taking whichever one of White or Cooper is left at 3 seems like an obvious selection. DeVante Parker, Dorial Beckham-Green aren’t likely to be around by the second round, but if they are they represent good value. At least one of Jalen Strong, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett and Devin Smith will be though, and all have the potential to develop into a good second WR option in the right situation.
With Forsett in place, the need at RB is not as bad as it is at WR, but should both Cooper and White go in the first two picks, Gurley would be tough to pass up. Melvin Gordon will likely be available, but a later round pick such as Yeldon or Coleman probably represents better value.
Defensive End is a deep position to draft from, and with the needs on offence it would be a surprise to see Leonard Williams go this high. Similarly spending a second round pick on Gregory or Ray is a stretch unless the receiver options have been decimated. Better to look in the later rounds at a player with breakout potential. Nate Orchard had a great 2014, and has potential to be a late round steal and Markus Golden has bags of talent but will drop down the NFL draft due to injuries which slowed him down last year and should be available at 50+.
Safety is a need, but frankly the safety option in this year’s draft are poor with Landon Collins possibly the only safety to go in the first round. Byron Jones might be the best athlete, although he may end up an NFL corner. He should be available somewhere after the 30th pick.

4. Tamworth Two – needs WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.
Picks 4, 14, 25, 35, 48, 59, 69

Tamworth Two have a lot of almost players lurking at 10th to 15th at their positions, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see some of them improve next year.
The biggest need on the roster is an elite wide receiver, and if Cooper or White drops here they should be a nailed on selection. If they don’t things get a little murkier as there is no talent on the defensive side of the ball worthy of the 4th pick.
Dorial Green-Beckham is an option, he represents a risk with his disciplinary issues in college, but there’s no doubt he’s one of the three most talented athletes at his position in this draft. He could have a Beckham Jr. level of impact if he finds a good fit. DaVante Parker is another option. Slightly less talented, but he represents a safer bet than DGB and is clearly the next best safe selection at receiver after Cooper and White. He doesn’t necessarily project as a potential WR1 thought. A lot will depend on who lands where, as nobody wants to draft the talented receiver who the Browns are expected to draft high in the first and inevitably ruin.
The need at Defensive End is intriguing. Both Dante Fowler Jr and Leonard Williams are options. It seems high for a defensive player, but they fill a need for this team and could develop into great #1 options at either DE or LB. However Randy Gregory, Shane Ray should be available in the second round and represent better value.
This team doesn’t need running backs particularly, as long as Lesean McCoy does better in Buffalo than his last year in Philly. However if Gurley were to fall he may be a tough player to pass on.
If Trey Waynes is available at 25 it’d be tough to pass him up. Failing that the needs at CB and safety can be filled in the later rounds with someone like Jalen Collins or Marcus Peters. Talented players who’ll be taken relatively high in the NFL draft.

5. Champions of the Sun – needs QB?, RB2/3, WR3.
Picks 9, 26, 40, 46, 49, 60, 70

Champions of the Sun have used their draft capital aggressively to fill needs in trades and free agency, leaving only 1 pick in the top 20, but a shortage of clear needs.
If Gordon falls to 9 he’d be a solid pick, it’s almost certain Gurley won’t make it this far. A good depth receiver with potential is the most likely pick though with the #9 selection. Cooper, White, Parker and DGB will all be gone almost certainly, but there should be at worst a couple of Jalen Strong, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett and Devin Smith to select from. A late round flyer on Brandin Cooks-like diminutive flier Tyler Lockett might also be an option, and while there’s legitimate concerns over Devin Funchess’s ability to create separation with his complete lack of speed, there is no doubting the 6’4 receivers hands or ability to create mismatch nightmares with his size.
It would be a reach for a running back other than Gordon at this point, but given the next pick would be the 26th, a reach for Jay Ajayi might be an option. A later round selection, such as a David Johnson is also an option at running back. Unless he lands in a particularly good RB situation Johnson is at best going to compete for a spot in camp, but he has the talent to make a starting job his own with the right franchise and could be a real find in the later rounds of the Dynabowl draft.
One intriguing option for the inaccurately-named Champions is at QB. Mariota or Winston could be available at 9, and while there’s been a reasonable investment in Roethlisberger, last season was an outlier in terms of fantasy production. A potential franchise QB to replace an aging Big Ben would be hard to pass up given the relative health of the overall roster.

6. Dynablaster Bombermen – needs ‘elite’ players.
Picks 6, 16, 20, 37, 44, 50, 53, 61, 62, 71

There is no position that jumps out from the Bombermen’s roster as having gaps or needs. They’ve solid top ten options in most positions, and good solid depth behind those players. What does strike me when I look through their performance though is the lack of elite talent in most positions. Aside from AJ Green, who’s 2014 showing is likely a blip caused by injuries there’s no elite talent. That should be the main aim for the Bombermen in this draft. Three picks in the top 20 definitely helps, but Cooper, White and Gurley represent the best three options in the draft in terms of potential to become elite players. It’s unlikely any of them make it to the 6th selection.
With a lot of draft capital, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility for the Bombermen to trade up or into next year’s draft instead. However, assuming that doesn’t happen they’re best off looking for the risk/reward players who have the potential to provide them an elite pay-off. The best example of this is Dorial Green-Beckham, and it would be a surprise both if he didn’t make it to the 6th selection and if the Bombermen passed on him in that position.
One option for the Bombermen is at QB. Ryan is a good QB, reliable and effective. He’s also playing for a poor Falcons team and had two below average (with only 10 QBs, anything below 6th is below average) seasons. If the GMs at Bomberman HQ feel Mariota or Winston has elite potential they’d be an option at 6, and a real selection headache at 16.
David Cobb has been a productive runner in Minnesota, and answered some doubts with a good showing in the Senior Bowl, his ability to handle a big workload could make him a potential lead back somewhere in the NFL, and that makes him a tempting selection in the mid to late rounds.

7. Kelkowski Don’t Play by No Dyna Rules – needs QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.
Picks 7, 17, 28, 38, 51, 72

The biggest needs for Kelkowski is easily the lack of a franchise QB. They could also use a tight end and options on defence.
With the tight end options slim, and neither DTs nor LBs offering value in the first round Kelkowski should definitely look to take one of the two top QBs in the draft. Maxx Williams is the best Tight End, and while not an outstanding talent, he might be around in the second round, and while that’s a reach, he might represent a reasonable gamble at that point, if Shelton and Brown have gone.
It’s not impossible, but it is unlikely that someone gets ahead of Kelkowski on the tackle front, and both Malcolm Brown and Danny Shelton project as first round tackles in the NFL draft. One of these, or possibly Dante Fowler, Shane Ray or Vic Beasley in the second round, and maybe even again in the third would definitely fill roster holes and have potential to develop into a great weapon on the defensive side of the ball.
In a reasonably deep and hard to call cornerback draft, Waynes might be available at 28, or a later selection in the last two or three rounds should pick up a good prospect at a tough position to predict.

8. DynaSore Losers – needs QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB.
Picks 8, 18, 29, 39, 52, 63, 73

The Losers needs are hard to call with a few question marks on positions. Dalton and Carr represent options if Manning falls apart, but neither looks likely to develop and replace Manning’s elite production. Mariota or Winston could therefore be an option with the 8th pick, and certainly with the 18th if they haven’t been taken.
The Running back position should be OK with Peterson and Forte, but they are aging. Gordon would be tough to pass over if he hasn’t been taken, otherwise a later round option would be better.
The biggest need on the roster is at tackle, and Danny Shelton is a definite option in the second round, with Malcolm Brown possibly available in the third.
Another option in the first round is to go with a wide receiver. Nelson is a stud, but Sanders may struggle if Manning does, and who knows how Torrey Smith will do in San Francisco. DaVante Parker and DGB may well be gone, if not they’d be good value here. The next tier of talent (Strong, Perriman, Dorsett, Smith) should be available, but they aren’t the easiest to separate. The best of them will probably be a good WR2 / 3, but knowing who that will be is the challenge and the gamble on making that call might not represent good value.
Leonard Williams may easily fall this far, and while DE is not a necessity, his talent makes him a great option at #8.
The need at corner can be addressed later in the draft, as there’s plenty of good options in the first few rounds.

9. Here Comes The Brees – needs RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S.
Picks 5, 19, 24, 30, 36, 64, 74

The Brees have a lot of holes on the roster, without an elite receiver, or running back after failing to tie down Forsett for the long-term. They lack talent across the whole defence, and Leonard Williams and Dante Fowler Jr will likely be available at 5. That would be a stretch though with the holes on offence.
With Gurley, Cooper and White likely gone by this point DeVante Parker and Melvin Gordon are the two most obvious picks at 5. The risk associated with DGB probably isn’t worthwhile for a team with so many holes, even if he is available. Parker might be the lesser talent and probably doesn’t project as a WR1, but he is the more reliable selection.
If any of Strong, Perriman, Dorsett, Smith or Ajayi make it to the depths of the second round, they’d be hard to pass up. However that seems unlikely, and the next tier of talent at the WR position is probably not worth the reach with so much defensive talent available. Picks 19, 24 and 30 provide an opportunity to net a couple of players from the pool of great defenders such as Brown, Shelton, Ray, Gregory and Beasley and that sort of solid rebuilding would be a great return for a roster with so many holes.

10. DynaForOne Firebirds – needs DE1, LB, CB, S.
Picks 10, 27, 31, 41, 54, 65, 75

No surprise to see the champions roster in relatively good shape, particularly offensively. The Firebirds could reload their offence with some good prospects to provide depth and trade bait, but they do have clear needs on defence. Leonard Williams may not survive the first round to be available, but the teams picking 1-5 will have better options for their picks and the teams picking 6-9 have less need for an elite DE. If he falls past to the Tamworth Two, it’s like Williams falls all the way to the Firebirds. Failing that, Dante Fowler Jr is the best player at a position of need, and the Jacksonville defence is not a place fantasy players go to die, as Senderrick Marks has demonstrated.
With no second round pick, the next pick is probably likely to miss out on Ray, Gregory, Beasley or one of the other potentially elite pass rushers. Lorenzo Mauldin is a bit of a project who needs to bulk up a little to succeed in the NFL, and he might make a decent mid-round pick for a Dynabowl team who have the opportunity to be patient.

1.01 1 Dyna Hard Amari Cooper, WR
1.02 2 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Todd Gurley, RB
1.03 3 East Flanders Dungeoneers Kevin White, WR
1.04 4 Tamworth Two Dorial Green-Beckham, WR
1.05 5 Here Comes The Brees DaVante Parker, WR
1.06 6 Dynablaster Bombermen Melvin Gordon, RB
1.07 7 Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules Jameis Winston, QB
1.08 8 Dynasore Losers Marcus Mariota, QB
1.09 9 Champions of the Sun Philip Dorsett, WR
1.10 10 DynaForOne Firebirds Leonard Williams, DE
2.01 11 Dyna Hard Jay Ajayi, RB
2.02 12 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Dante Fowler Jr, LB
2.03 13 East Flanders Dungeoneers Jalen Strong, WR
2.04 14 Tamworth Two Vic Beasley, LB
2.05 15 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Danny Shelton, DT
2.06 16 Dynablaster Bombermen Breshad Perriman, WR
2.07 17 Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules Maxx Williams, TE
2.08 18 Dynasore Losers Devin Smith, WR
2.09 19 Here Comes The Brees Shane Ray, DE
2.10 20 Dynablaster Bombermen Randy Gregory, LB
2.11 21 East Flanders Dungeoneers Telvin Coleman, RB
3.01 22 Dyna Hard Trey Waynes, CB
3.02 23 The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness Malcom Brown, DT
3.03 24 Here Comes The Brees AJ Yeldon, RB
3.04 25 Tamworth Two Alvin Dupree, LB
3.05 26 Champions of the Sun Brett Hundley, QB
3.06 27 DynaForOne Firebirds Bud Dupree, LB
3.07 28 Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules Eli Harold, LB
3.08 29 Dynasore Losers Arik Armistead, DT
3.09 30 Here Comes The Brees Duke Johnson, RB
3.10 31 DynaForOne Firebirds Marcus Peters, CB

 

The DynaBowl Auction

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. It was bonkers. It was insane. It was so crazy it might just work. It was a once in a lifetime experience, in as much as it was brilliant and, I think, that’s about the one time in my life I want to do it. It was, of course, The DynaBowl auction day in Sheffield.

I don’t want to be negative about it – I certainly don’t feel negative about it – but looking back on the day, there were so many things that went wrong, be they with my strategy and planning, or with the way the day itself was run, but they are all part of what is, weirdly (and perhaps shamefully) one of the best days of my life. I both love and hate myself a little bit more for being able to say that.

So, a brief bit of scene setting for those not in the know. We are a UK-based fantasy football (NFL) league. We have played a redraft league for a few years and had decided to step things up to a Dynasty League (Dynasty League basically means you own your players as long as you like and try to build through the draft so you can win year after year). We threw the kitchen sink at this league though. There’s an auction to start things off. There’s full IDP (individual defensive players). There’s a starting line-up of 22 players and rosters totalling 50. There’s a salary cap, and contracts with extension costs, and the ability to structure guaranteed money in different years.

Basically, we figured if we were going to do this, we were going to do everything we could possibly want to do the first time we tried, and it was going to include every feature we could think of. Nearly.

Fantasy Leagues tend to get split into two types – those played with (relative) strangers across the internet and those played amongst a group of friends, and we are definitely part of that latter group. However, we are also part of the former. We are all split out across the country in a variety of locations and rarely get to see each other. Indeed, some of us had never met others before, bizarrely, despite all being good friends. Go figure. We do spend a fair chunk of time chatting with each other via online messaging services, especially during big sporting events. Especially during the NFL season.

Our redraft league is run through the internet and the draft that takes place is internet based. If we were going to set up a Dynasty League though we wanted to do it in style, all meeting up to launch the fucker together. And that is what the Auction Day on July 12th was all about.

The plan – we had a room in a pub booked all day. 10 men would enter, 10 men would leave. Broken shells of men, but 10 of them all leaving. Those 10 men would have bought the fictional rights to 500 players for the next several years. What could possibly go wrong?

As it turns out, two very key things could go wrong. One of us could be stuck in Turkey, and we could all drastically under-estimate the amount of time it would take to buy 500 players. Thank God we weren’t dealing with agents too.

I had foreseen some problems. Availability was always going to be an issue. That’s why I had the day picked out from January. I surveyed the league. I made sure it was good for everyone. And immediately after I picked it out I was told it wouldn’t work for one league member. So we moved it. Then one of our contingent got a job in Belgium, but he would be able to make it back over. Except that then his Belgian employers sent him to Turkey and he wouldn’t be back in Belgium until the morning of the auction. Fine – we’ll Skype him in. Except then there were plane problems and he couldn’t leave Turkey until later… And argh… I started to get that feeling that everything was crumbling around my ears.

So before I get into how the day went, the mistakes, both real and perceived, mine and others and the group as a whole, before all of that, let’s expand a little on the set-up.

Fantasy Football (NFL) is a big thing in America. I mean, in the UK, Fantasy Football (soccer) is quite big – newspapers run their leagues, Sky runs a league. There are some big prizes. But consider this – in America, during games on the scoreboards in the stadium, messages flash up to update the crowd on how many points players around the league have scored. Fantasy Football (NFL) isn’t a bit of fun around the side, it has been woven into the very fabric of the sport.

Imagine if you were reading an article in the paper about a new signing made by Chelsea in the Premier League and the end of the article had a couple of paragraphs about what the signing means for your fantasy league. That happens in America. That’s a real thing. Fantasy Football is central to the sport.

This is reflected in web options. To run your league, you can set up a free league through Yahoo or ESPN or CBS or the NFL itself, but if you’re serious you pay a website to have a fully customisable set-up, so you can change nigh on every single detail. So what do you think we’ve done?

Are we taking our hobby seriously? You bet we are. Too seriously? No such thing. OK, there is, and I am. I’m writing this aren’t I? But I am by no means the worst. Google fantasy football. Google dynasty leagues. You will disappear down a rabbit hole. People pay thousands of dollars each year to enter leagues online against strangers, with winner takes all, or most, of the prize fund. People actively seek out failing and abandoned teams (known as Orphans) for the challenge of turning them into champions.

So why such devotion, and why haven’t things gone this far with fantasy football (soccer)? I think the key is in 3 very specific things. Most North American sports can be broken down into stats very easily, and football (NFL) more than most. The number of yards running, receiving or throwing is a very simple thing to calculate, with bonus points for touchdowns. Compare that to goals and assists – the bulk of fantasy football (soccer) scoring – and you can begin to see there are more options. A typical football (soccer) match sees 3 goals – that’s very few scoring events. In the NFL each team will generate a total of 300-400 yards offence on average, with different players getting credit and earning points for those. Suddenly there’s a lot more ways to score points, and a lot more points to be scored. A canny manager has more control in fantasy football (NFL) than fantasy football (soccer).

The second reason is that in football (soccer) teams have (relatively) large squads but can only let 14 guys on the field per match. That means that your player could get rested for the big European match midweek, and you won’t know until the game kicks off. You don’t have enough information to manage your team. In the NFL, players are active for games, or inactive. The roster has 53 men in total and all could play some part, and you’ll generally know in advance if your guys will or won’t. Therefore, management is, again, more nuanced.

Finally, most fantasy football (NFL) leagues – except the one run by Sky in the UK, which follows the fantasy football (soccer) model – are set up to be individual leagues where teams compete against each other each week, building to playoffs and a superbowl, and – crucially – each player can only be owned by one team in the league. In fantasy football (soccer), everyone can field Van Persie if they want. The level of competitiveness isn’t there in fantasy football (soccer).

So that’s why it’s so great, why it’s so appealing (though having a love of NFL helps, too, of course). Now back to the DynaBowl. I set up the auction. I then had to craft some rules.

The rules. I didn’t know what I was doing. I had some ideas, but would they work. I searched the interwebs. I signed up at websites. I posted on forums. I read archives. And I wrote and I honed. My final rules, I have just found out, clock in at a scary over 7,400 words. Seriously. That’s nearly as long as the dissertation that got me my degree. And they are a fucking work of art.

I thought of everything I could. I thought of all the ways I’d try to gain an advantage and then wrote rules so I couldn’t. I made them as simple to read as possible, but they are still quite complex. We had robust conversations. Well, the people who read them did. Not everyone has yet. Still. They trust that the rules will be there when they need them. No one has found my secret loophole.

The next thing was research. I knew some players. I knew the main players. The redraft league had given me that. I didn’t know most of the defensive players. I didn’t know the depth players. I didn’t know the secret players who might have a break-out season. I didn’t know how consistent or otherwise players tended to be, with regard to point scoring. I didn’t know how much of an impact a trade or free agency signing might have. How would he fit in with the new coach’s offensive line schemes? That kind of thing. So I read lots and lots more. And I read the questions everyone else posed. And I absorbed and I came up with values I thought players would have and I came up with a strategy for who I wanted on my roster.

In the meantime, as Commissioner of the league, I had another duty. An important duty. Every league member was paying me £20 for the first year and £10 each year thereafter to run the league, pay for the site and pay for the prizes. This is not for profit. Anything that didn’t go on the site was going on the prizes, and I needed a trophy. I looked at websites, I visited trophy shops. It turned out they had all closed. I found one run out of an old man’s garage and paid him a visit. He gave me some catalogues. I was *this* close to buying a cup. It was fancy, but it came out of a magazine. It was nice, but it wasn’t special. This league needed special.

A friend of mine makes art and models. Things like dragons and fawns and night elves. They are really, really good. We were chatting about stuff in general and I mentioned the league and the trophy search and I suddenly realised – maybe, if paid enough, she could create the ideal trophy.

Amongst my friends, the NFL championship is referred to as the Owl. Not just any Owl, the Superb Owl. I commissioned my friend to produce a Superb Owl for me. And it is fucking superb. See for yourself:

 

The Owl on display in the DynaBowl League Trophy Room
The Owl on display in the DynaBowl League Trophy Room

See… superb. I teased the league in the build-up to the auction, but I didn’t let them know what I had done. It was to be a surprise.

Anyway, back to the best of times, the worst of times. We were meeting in Sheffield. I don’t live in Sheffield. I live a long way from Sheffield. I allowed an hour longer for my journey than was suggested. It was a beautiful day and everyone else was on the road. I used up all of my hour and arrived at the pub at about 5 minutes past midday. 5 minutes late. Not a good precedent. Fortunately we were waiting for others to arrive too. I didn’t keep too many people waiting.

We got into the pub, relaxed with a drink before getting started, and then went to our ‘function’ room to set up. It was a decent room. A good size for all of us. Unfortunately we all had at least one laptop and/or iPad, and we were using a projector. And, as discussed, it was a lovely day. That room got hot, quick. We were promised a fan. It never arrived. It would have just moved hot air around anyway. It wasn’t a huge loss.

So once we set up I unveiled the Owl to gasps of delight, and flashes of cameras from the local press.

My one chance to proudly hold up the Owl
My one chance to proudly hold up the Owl

And then we got down to business. I wanted a bit of pageantry. We drew marbles in an FA Cup style to determine who called the next player for auction (we stuck with the same order throughout, we didn’t do this every single time). The first person called was Neil. Neil had no idea who he wanted to nominate. It was an inauspicious start.

Once Neil had nominated the bidding got under way and, with the help of a broken chair leg for a gavel, I announced the sale closed. The player, Cam Newton, quarterback for the Caroline Panthers and general all-round stud player. He was bought by Mike for $50. Mike subsequently revealed that he had not planned to spend $50 on a quarterback or to bid on Cam Newton. This is what the pressure of a live auction can do to a man. By the end, I think we had all experienced this to one extreme or another.

This process went on. Most people had no idea who they wanted to nominate each time it came round to them. I was probably the worst for it. I was juggling running the auction, entering all the sales into a database, keeping people up to date with how much they had spent AND trying to buy players for my own team. There was too much happening. It is now 3 weeks later and I still haven’t fully recovered my brain function. I made a lot of mistakes. But before we get to those, let’s stop a moment to watch a lengthy video of the first round of purchases being made.

As you can see, I am well placed to take up a professional auctioneering job, should commissioning fall through.

I am going to go into detail (“What?!? This isn’t detail yet???” – you) around my strategy and how I messed up and what I felt about the way in which things went from a buying players perspective, but first I wanted to talk more generally about what I learned from doing this whole thing.

PRACTICAL LESSONS

1) If you’re thinking about doing something like this – a live auction with a bunch of friends – always err on the side of caution with regards to time. We had estimated that we’d start of at 30-40 players per hour – that’s one player sold every 90-120 seconds – and would get up to somewhere between one player every 30-60 seconds.

We thought big names would go first, with lots of bidding, hence the longer time-frames, and then we’d get down to a lot of $1-3 players – barely any bidding. This wasn’t the case. As I mentioned before, most of the time people didn’t know who they were nominating next. There were lots of players that got a “Who?” reaction around the table which meant, before bidding could commence everyone had to look them up – their name, team, position, past performance – and then make a snap decision to bid or not. It all added up.

For 500 players to be sold off, we’d probably need to have started at 9am and gone for 12+ hours. As it was we went from 1pm until about 7:30pm as the last train from Sheffield for some team managers left at around 8pm.

I never thought we would be done by 8pm, but even if we’d stayed until 11pm, closing time, we wouldn’t have made it to 500 players.

Let's get down to bizniz
Let’s get down to bizniz

2) Have a contingency. If there’s a risk that you might not be able to get through the whole thing in one day, have a plan for what you do next. We had to make one up pretty much on the spot. Those who could stay on talked in the bar about how to sort it and then I had to figure out the finer details.

To explain what we did, we took the positions one by one (or in a couple of cases, grouped them together). People submitted a list in preference order along with their maximum bid and some vague instructions (like “If you get X, don’t bid on Y”). I then collated all of that information and worked out who got which player. Teams went into a ‘first-preference’ order to break ties, dropping the team who won the player to last on the list.

It was a complex process and more gut than scientific to be honest. The complications over person A put player X 5th on his list and bid $10 while person B put them 1st with a bid of $8 (and that’s very much a simple example) meant I had to bring my own interpretation to it.

I like to think that during my time in leagues with the other GMs means that I am trusted as being fair and rational and impartial in these situations and that’s why it worked. I wasn’t questioned once about where the players ended up and for how much, though the big difference in player evaluations made that easier – there weren’t many instances of teams ending up with their 10th choice on their list.

Still, I would recommend having some kind of plan set up and agreed in advance.

Phil's about to buy someone - that's what I had just decided
Phil’s about to buy someone – that’s what I had just decided

3) Have some kind of contingency for if someone can’t attend. Who knows what can happen, especially when you set your auction date so far in advance. We were caught out by one member’s job situation taking him to the other side of the continent and we mad as good a stab at covering for him as possible.

I bought him a few players – none that I was targeting myself of course – when the info he had managed to send through at short notice seemed a bit shallow. He couldn’t have known that the values for the players he had given me would go above his maximum, and there was no ability to adjust on the fly so I took some decisions.

This wouldn’t work with a different group of people, which is why a more robust plan should be in place before it goes ahead, just in case.

In the end, he’s ended up with, arguably, a decent but not great. At least he’ll be competitive and, as Commissioner, it’s in my interest to make sure the league as a whole and all teams individually remain competitive.

The look of a man who wants to show the Racists how to properly build a roster
The look of a man who wants to show the Racists how to properly build a roster

4) Try to find somewhere with air conditioning.

5) Get someone to be auctioneer. Someone who is not buying a team. I managed to pull together a pretty decent team, but I made a fair few mistakes along the way and didn’t follow my plan. Not having to run the auction itself would have allowed me to pay more attention to the bids I was making and how much I was spending.

On a related note, if you can rope 2 people in (and I get that getting someone to be auctioneer could be hard enough), then having someone separate to enter all the sale details as you go would be ideal.

James plots his next move
James plots his next move

AUCTION LESSONS

1) Defensive players. No one knew how to value them. The big names went for big bucks, and that’s fair. Robert Quinn and JJ Watt are behemoths and will score more than anyone else on defense, but all my researched showed that the next tier below tended to be a) very similar in performance and b) relatively inconsistent. This means that paying for the 7th best linebacker last season is basically the same as paying for the 25th best linebacker last season.

Why, then, did I make Ryan Shazier my most expensive defensive player, at $16? He’s a rookie linebacker. He may be terrible – he’s never played one professional snap – and yet I made him the joint 8th most expensive linebacker.

Just by way of comparison, I got Kyle WIlliams, the best performing defensive tackle (DT) in 2013 (by 24 points) for $6. Each team only needs to field 1 DT, but can field 2. If we assume that every team fields 1 and there’s even skill distribution (and there isn’t, as I have 3 of the top 10 from 2013), Williams scored 70 points more than the fifth best DT in 2013, and 89.5 more than the 10th.

It’s no guarantee of future performance of course, but that’s potentially a substantial point advantage, especially when you consider the most expensive DT went for $26.

We won’t see just how good that purchase was, or how inconsistent the scoring turns out to be for defensive players until the season takes place, but I think it’s clear this is the area we knew the least about and were least prepared for. Those contracts will even out over time as they need to be renewed or players hit free agency, but for now they are all over the place.

Everyone is focused on what matters most to them. To Ian, that's the camera.
Everyone is focused on what matters most to them. To Ian, that’s the camera.

2) Quarterbacks. In any given week there are up to 32 players starting as QB across the league. This league requires exactly 10 to start each week. There are some excellent QBs out there who can score a lot of points, however, given the requirement to start 3 or 4 WRs and 2 or 3 RBs which means that those pools of major talent would be in high demand, I had decided my strategy was to pay low fo QBs and spend on performers in those positions.

I was right, as well. I could have picked up Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo – three players with several top 10 fantasy seasons behind them – for a combined $25.

Unfortunately, I spent $64 on my three QBs – one of whom is Ryan – but the other two are overpriced gambles, RG3 and Johnny Manziel. RG3 could be a top 3 player – he was 5th in his rookie season and only 27 points behind Drew Brees in 1st – but his injury record and inconsistent play in his second season show the direction this gamble could take.

I’m not unhappy to have RG3. I actually think his upside is more likely and he’ll be a great player to watch this season, but I’d rather have spent less and invested the extra money in WRs or RBs.

Related to this, Aaron Rodgers, arguably the best QB in the league and with many seasons ahead of him, was the highest valued player at the auction, sold for $77. Given the prices for other players, this to me was an overspend. Despite being a Packers fan, I had ruled out going for Rodgers before the auction because I thought he’d be too expensive and I think I was proved right.

Ultimately this boils down to how many points can, say, $40 buy you? (Matt Stafford scored 1.5 points per game fewer than Aaron Rodgers in 2013, 4 fewer in 2012, and cost $44 less at auction). Could the investment of $20 in two RBs or WRs net you a gain of more than 4 points per game over the players actually bought? I think that’s entirely possible. If I had spent $40 less on my QBs, as I intended, I would have invested in a couple of other bigger players.

But hey, it’ll all come out in the wash, and maybe the Tamworth Two, who paid that $77 for Rodgers, will be proven right with a trip to the Owl.

Geoff doesn't think much of David's purchase, while James counts his pennies for the Rodgers purchase.
Geoff doesn’t think much of David’s purchase, while James counts his pennies for the Rodgers purchase.

3) Rookies. This was the foundation of my plan. I had read theories around structuring a dynasty roster which said it was a better strategy to go for longer term, don’t look to go for year one. Why? Because a team that is built to win from year 1 rarely has the depth to win for much longer afterwards and so requires immediate work to rebuild. By investing in youth (younger studs too, not just rookies), you hopefully prime your team to be stacked for years to come. This strategy may have a sneaky added advantage of giving you a bad finish in season 1 and so netting you a high draft pick in the first rookie draft too.

I went after this big time, with a combination of rookies who had high upside (Jordan Matthews at Philadelphia, for example) and those I thought were assured to be at the least very solid for years to come (Brandin Cooks, New Orleans). I also threw the dice in a couple of areas. At Tight End (TE) I have taken 4 young guys who may or may not come to something. If one of them hits to any degree I should be in a good position.

Of course, there are no guarantees any of these guys hit, and that’s why I also made sure to grab some guys who were proven to some degree, but had years ahead of them. AJ Green of the Bengals was my main purchase, the second most expensive player at auction at $71, and alongside him I picked up some second and third year guys who can hopefully break out this year. At least I know they can already perform to a reasonable standard in the league.

Finally, I grabbed a couple of veteran WRs cheap in the post-auction portion of proceedings. Anquan Boldin and James Jones should provide something for at least a year. They may not set the world on fire, but they provide options.

The same kind of thing with RBs, except here I tried to pair guys up. I only succeeded with 49ers veteran and rookie combo of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, but I still feel I have a good mix of experience, youth and rookies, along with a couple of players who could surprise or could just disappear.

It may all backfire, of course, with nary a stud between them, but I can’t imagine all of them busting. Even if they don’t all become studs, there should be enough players with a good future ahead of them to keep me in with a shout for a few years.

David is shocked at the Flacco valuation while Ian intently ignores him
David is shocked at the Flacco valuation while Ian intently ignores him

4) Contracts. Of course, the one thing I had forgotten to factor in was contracts. We have a limit as to the number of contract years that can be assigned at the start which means that some/many of these players will need renewing or releasing in a year or two. If I offer short term contracts to young players I run the risk of not being able to afford to keep them when that time comes around, but if I offer them longer contracts and they bust, I end up wasting money on them. It’s a fine balance, but one that effects everyone. The potential issue with all the rookies is if too many of them do too well too early and I can’t afford to keep them all, but that would be a nice problem to have and one I’ll worry about if or when it comes up.

Chris looks studious - you'd not guess he's from Manchester
Chris looks studious – you’d not guess he’s from Manchester

5) Other teams. It was really good to see the variety of approaches taken and I was very pleased by the balance across the league. I think some teams are better than others, but there’s no one there who will be either winning or losing all their games this year. I was concerned some teams might end in a terrible state and that poor balance might lead to managers wanting to leave the league but I don’t think there’s a risk of that. I have my own favourites for the title this year, but I think it’s pretty wide open. Despite my plans for the future, I think I stand a chance of the playoffs this season, and if that’s achieved, who knows what will happen?

So overall it’s been a great deal of fun so far, and it’s opened my eyes to a lot of things. It could have been a farce and, in many ways, it was a bit, but we’ve ridden through the storm and now can’t wait to get down to the real business, when we see just how wrong we were about the players we bought.

Laughter after David unveils an hilarious stat about Colin Kaepernick
Laughter after David unveils an hilarious stat about Colin Kaepernick

(NB all photos and video courtesy of Ben Archer)