Tag: D-Slatz

With another draft in the books, I thought it’d be interesting to take a retrospective look at some of the more complicated trades over recent seasons, and the domino effect of those trades, so I’ve picked out six that I think are more complicated and wide reaching, or involved big names in trades to see what sort of return they netted in the end. I’ve avoided some of the bigger seeming trades where minimal picks were involved (the TY Hilton trade for example) as they essentially come down to player valuation at the time, and focused on pick heavy trades – particularly where they involved further trading down the line. I’ve ranked them very unscientifically in order of blockbusteriness and interestingness.

Six

DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 3.02 & 5.02 and 2017 Round 5 Pick
Dynasty of Sadness – 2016 2.02

Two teams that will turn up pretty often in these trades in are the Sadness and the Firebirds, but I like this trade because while there’s a lot of multi-pick trades where team A moves up a few places in a high round at the cost of moving down more places in a later round this is a much simpler decision to pay to move up. So what does the trade value chart make of this? 2.02 is worth 1200 points while 3.02 (780) and 5.02 (480) combine to more points without the additional 5th rounder in 2017 (based on 6.05 this is worth 350). In total the Firebirds paid 1610 points, the equivalent of 1.06 in order to get this pick. Or should I say, get this pick back. Since he’d previously traded it to the Sadness in exchange for Markus Wheaton about a month before. So… Firebirds ended up giving up three picks, of decent value, in order to get back a pick he spent on Markus Wheaton (who’s scored a whopping 13.1 points for him since the trade), which seemed a reach for a guy who was only around the 40th best receiver the season before (although he did finish the previous season hot).

So what did the Firebirds end up with, aside from Wheaton, for this treasure trove – CJ Prosise. A handcuff to the Thomas Rawls, acquired in an earlier trade (1.09 spent on Devontae Booker and 2.05 which was traded on again and eventually spent on Kenyan Drake, and neither of which Neil originally started with, as I’ll cover later). Prosise looked reasonably good in limited action before his injury, and getting the handcuff to Rawls seems smart in retrospect given how much he’s struggled with injuries when he’s played and how unconvinced by him Seattle seemed to be last year. Sadly that might not be enough with Lacy now in town, the expensively acquired Prosise and Rawls could both be out of the picture, unless they get smart, team up and open a burger joint near CitiLink Field.

That’s just looking at the Firebirds side of the trade though, what happened to the picks the Sadness acquired. 3.02 was spent on Mike Thomas, sadly not the one in New Orleans. LA Rams receiver Mike Thomas has been considerably worse, with a total of only 6.2 points as a rookie. He may yet turn into a good receiver, but the Rams passing offence doesn’t seem any better than last year’s putrid edition, the Rams invested in more weapons for Goff that might see Thomas fall down the depth chart all together and right now he’s probably a candidate for the chop, only one year in. And speaking of the putrid Rams offence, 5.02 was spent on the source of the terrible smell – Jared Goff. I think we all know how that’s turned out so far. As for the 2017 5th rounder (5.04) – it’s turned into Ishmael Zamora, the dog-beater. There’s really no way to know how that pick turns out at this point, but unless the plan is to dress Thomas and Goff as dogs then I’m not sure Zamora will really end up being the important part of rescuing this trade for the Sadness.

I don’t think we can pick winners or losers on a lot of these, but if we were, I’d probably shade this one to Neil right now. It also highlights an interesting point – trading down and getting good value for a premium pick is a solid strategy, but you have to spend the picks wisely when you do, not on the Rams passing offence.

Five

Tamworth Two – Snead, Willie NOS WR, 2016 Round 1 Pick and 2017 Round 2 Pick
DynaForOne Firebirds – Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

So here’s a different sort of trade to the first – a player swap, with picks to make up the difference. This pick took place in season, so the final value of both picks wasn’t known at the point of trade, but one was for the current season and it was done at the deadline with T2 in the thick of the playoff battle, so I’d call it the 1.08 pick on average, rather than the usual 1.05 average that I’d use for a future pick, but the total value of the picks still comes to close to the 3rd overall pick. That’s a lot of value, but Thomas was a stud receiver at the time, number three overall in 2014 but struggling a little in 2015 – mostly because of Peyton Manning falling off a cliff and being unable to complete a pass over 10 yards. Those sorts of talents are generally going for double firsts, which suggests Snead – not unreasonably as he’d end up putting up nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie over only 9 games, a record for an undrafted player’s rookie season – was either valued at a first himself, or maybe that the Firebirds gave Thomas up slightly cheap.

In actual fact though this is a really savvy deal, Thomas’ struggles continued in 2016 and it’s hard to remember a receiver coming back from the sort of extended dip he’s struggled through and T2 have been left with a top six salary for a player who couldn’t crack the top 20 in 2016. Between the IRL big contract and the continued problems at QB for Denver it’s not unreasonable to suggest the struggles aren’t going away. As for Snead, he followed up his 984 yards and 3 TDs with 895 yards and 4 TDs, but over 16 games. That’s probably because of the emergence of Michael Thomas in the second half of the year and the presence of Cooks, with Cooks gone Snead could break out in a bigger role in 2017. And if nothing else, he’s been so much cheaper than Thomas for similar production, and is younger, so without the picks I’d be tempted to call Neil a winner here – despite Thomas having a proven ceiling considerably higher. However, put that aside, because the pick value removes any doubt. Even with the worst picks in the world Neil’s value on this trade is off the chart. Which is probably good as Neil spent the first rounder he received as part of the Rawls trade (along with 2.05 which ended up traded around until it became Kenyan Drake – told you it would come up again), which has worked out OK, but hasn’t produced the top ten stud RB he would have hoped given the price. The 2.05 pick that the 2017 pick also ended up traded, to the Sadness along with 2.04 (and was spent on James Conner), to get the 9th overall pick which was spent on Alvin Kamara. Given that the pick traded for Rawls ended up the same pick that then subsequently got traded in 2017 the best way to look at this is probably that it’s Thomas for Snead and Rawls. Even with Rawls disappointing 2016 and unconvincing position for 2017, I’d call Neil a clear winner on this one simply because I’m not convinced Thomas has a path back to being an elite receiver right now. A pattern is emerging, don’t fuck with Neil when it comes to trades.

Four

Dynasty of Sadness – Tate, Golden DET WR and 2016 Picks 3.01 & 5.01
Champions of the Sun – 2016 Picks 1.06 & 3.10

It wouldn’t be a trade review if these two didn’t show up in it somewhere trading picks. While a lot of their trades are the sort of up in one round down in another sort of trades I mentioned in the first trade I highlighted, this one is a little more straight-forward. This is a chunk of stuff given up by one team to get a high pick off the other. I picked this one here as it involves a player as a makeweight to trade up, unlike number six which was purely about picks or number five which was mostly about trading for a star.

Let’s start with the pick valuation and see what it values Tate as in terms of a pick. Champions are giving up 2220 points of value, while Sadness give up 1290, a difference of 930 which equates to somewhere roughly in the middle of 2.07 and 2.08. Given the valuations we’ve seen of Thomas, Snead and Landry, this is probably on the low side for Tate, who was coming off something of a breakout first year in Detroit and looking at a potentially bigger role with Megatron retiring. Even with him not being as young as any of those mentioned, it’s still less than was paid for Wheaton who was considerably less productive and with far greater downside. Initially then this looks like being advantage Champions.

Fortunately for the Sadness, they played a blinder with the big pick, nabbing Michael Thomas at 1.06 – a top receiver in his rookie season, and a big part (along with Elliot) of why the Sadness made a playoff run. With Cooks gone, he has an opportunity to take on an even bigger role in the next couple of seasons. The 3.10 pick was spent on Jordan Payton who’s delivered the square root of fuck all so far in Cleveland, but there’s time for that to change. Similarly the two picks given up by Sadness have gone on QB development prospect Paxton Lynch who’s shown little to nothing so far (though was not expected to deliver anything in 2016), and Washington RB non-event Keith Marshall as the Champions correctly didn’t trust Matt Jones, but wrongly pegged Marshall rather than Fat Rob Kelley as the solution.

Right now this trade essentially boils down to Tate for Thomas, and that’s a clear win for the Dynasty of Sadness.

Three

Dynasty of Sadness – Bryant, Dez DAL WR and 2017 Round 5 Pick
Dyna Hard – Morris, Alfred DAL RB and Diggs, Stefon MIN WR and 2016 Pick 1.08 and 2017 Round 1 Pick

OK, so as a one-off trade goes, this is probably the blockbusteriest trade so far in the Dynabowl, two firsts, Stefon Diggs and Alfred Morris for Dez Bryant and a make-weight future 5th. It’s like the Thomas trade, only with sprinkles on top (Morris, two firsts instead of a first and a second). Only here’s the thing, much like Thomas, Bryant comes with a huge price tag and was coming off a disappointing year – injuries rather than Peyton Manning being the limiting factor as he produced only 57 points. And much like Thomas, he failed to deliver in 2016 as well, an injury hit start hurting his total points and putting him out of the top twenty, but even his point per game return wouldn’t have been enough for a top ten finish. As for Diggs – he wasn’t as electric as Snead in his rookie year, but he showed flashes and attracted interest off the taxi squad. Much like Snead, he’s not a better player than the one he’s been traded for… yet. But he’s in a position to succeed, as a key part of his offence, and you’d rather be buying stock in Snead/Diggs right now than in Bryant or Thomas (though I’d favour Bryant over Thomas as a comeback candidate, because the Cowboys are better at QB right now and because Bryant’s been hurt rather than just bad).

Morris is mostly irrelevant to this trade, but he had a relatively unfriendly salary for a handcuff to the Sadness’ presumptive number one Elliot, so it was a worthwhile addition with cap space spare.

As for the picks – the 2016 1.08 was used on Kenneth Dixon, who’s sometimes looked good, but failed to really cement himself as the Baltimore lead running back as yet, unless he does this seems like a lost pick. The 2017 pick was traded back twice, to 1.08 with the Brees, then 2.01 with the Dungeoneers, netting a fifth rounder (subsequently traded down to move up from 2.04 to 2.02) and to move up 5 places in the 4th. The final landing spot at 2.01 was used on Kareem Hunt. Hunt has talent and if either he or Dixon end up as a number one back and a good RB1/2 to complement Elliot as the Sadness’ stud then they’re clear winners here. Similarly if Diggs develops into a good receiver at a WR2 sort of level, while Bryant fails to become a clear WR1 again, then you’d have to call the Sadness winners here, however if Dixon and Hunt end up in RBBC situations, and Diggs never really breaks out of the WR3/Flex level he was in his second year, then it’s probably going to favour Dyna Hard as I just don’t think Bryant is done yet, and even as an overpaid WR2 he still offers more than three at-best flex level players. All in all there’s a lot of ifs around this, and it could easily go either way still, so I think it’s fair to move on without declaring a clear winner.

Two

Dynasore Losers – 2016 1.04 to Firebirds; 2016 3.04 and 2017 Round 1 Pick to Tamworth Two
DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 4.02 and 2017 Round 1 Pick
Tamworth Two – Landry, Jarvis MIA WR and 2016 3.09

There’s two different trades here, but ultimately the two go together as the Losers deal with the Firebirds was an attempt to recoup the 2017 first rounder lost in the deal for Landry as the 2017 draft seemed a lot stronger than the 2016 one did. So how did this all shake out?

The Firebirds gave up a pick valued in advance at 1.05, but which ultimately became 1.04, the same pick given up to get Landry, while the 2017 first became 1.02. As such the Losers didn’t lose spots in the draft as they ended up trading away their 2016 1.04 for what became the 2017 1.04, but because they ended up losing their own 1.02 and gaining the Firebirds 1.04 they did actually lose two spots. Still following? Good.

The Firebirds pick became Corey Coleman. So far he’s been better than Doctson and Treadwell, taken ahead of him, but worse than Shepherd and Michael Thomas who were taken after him. With only 60 points in his rookie season he’s a long way from being worth the first rounder given up to get him yet, but receivers do sometimes take time, and the Browns have a terrifyingly bad QB situation, so there’s still hope for him as that potentially improves.

The two picks the Firebirds gave up to get Coleman became Christian McCaffrey and Deion Jones. Right now there’s no two ways about this, Jones looks like a stud, scoring nearly 80 more points than Coleman in his rookie year as the top point scorer among (drafted) defensive rookies, and the 4th highest (drafted) rookie scorer (non-QB) in his class. Obviously, that’s only one season, but that’s all we have for both players so far.

As for the second half of the trade, the first given up on Landry was spent on Corey Davis. This worked out pretty well for both sides, with the Losers getting McCaffrey at #4 from their own trade into 2017 (who they would have taken at #2 anyway, given the need at RB) and T2 moving ahead of the Brees who had hoped to snag Davis at #3. It’s impossible to evaluate this up front, as Davis has yet to appear in an NFL game, but who wins that trade in the long run comes down to whether Landry or Davis ends up being the better receiver. As for the exchange of thirds… Rashard Higgins has produced little to nothing so far for T2, but does have great hair and plenty of time to come good (hopefully not a sign of things to come from Davis for them) while the 3.09 pick that went the other way was used in a package with Charles Sims to nab two picks from the Brees which were spent on DeAndre Washington and Adolphus Washington, if DeAndre Washington ends up a starter in Oakland then this part of the deal certainly favours the Losers, but that’s a big if with Beast Mode coming home to Oakland and looking to be the feature back for them. Adolphus may or may not do anything in the long run, it’s simply too early to say. If none of these three develop into viable fantasy options, then it will literally come down to the two receivers. While that’s certainly true when it comes to the long-term evaluation of the trade, it’s also fair to say that just on a fundamental level it’s almost always going to be better in a trade to get a young receiver with proven production rather than trading for a pick to draft one, no matter how highly they’re regarded – especially when that trade is for an unknown draft pick in the subsequent year’s draft.

The net of this three way trade is that the Losers bagged Christian McCaffrey, Deion Jones, Jarvis Landry and DeAndre Washington. T2 netted Corey Davis and Rashard Higgins while the Firebirds got Corey Coleman. A lot depends on how Coleman and Davis do over the next two or three years, but it’s fair to say that if McCaffrey is a bust the Losers have at worst got a pair of quality starters and for either T2 or the Firebirds to feel happy about their parts in this deal they’ll need their own high pick receivers to out-perform Landry at a minimum. It seems fair to say at this point though that the big loser looks to be the Firebirds, who’s Jedi trade tricks fail to work a third time as McCaffrey and Jones for Coleman seems heavily weighted in favour of the Losers, regardless of how Landry for Davis works out.

One

Here Comes The Brees – 2016 Picks 1.05 & 1.06 to Champions of the Sun; Donald, Aaron STL DT to Dynablaster Bombermen
Champions of the Sun – Robinson, Allen JAC WR
Dynablaster Bombermen – 2016 Round 1 & 4 Draft Picks and 2017 Round 1 Pick

Much like the previous example this is a three way trade essentially, but this with the Brees at the centre of it. In one sense the Brees gave up Donald to get Robinson, and got a 4th out of it but it’s a touch more complicated than that. Basically the Brees picked up a pair of firsts, spending the first of them, along with their own 2016 pick to get Allen Robinson. That’s not out of line with the prices paid for Bryant and Thomas, without giving up a young receiver in return. However that wrongly puts Thomas and Bryant (established studs with better seasons) on a par with Robinson who had one good season off the back of a high number of TD scores. Where Thomas and Bryant struggled to recapture their best form, which is probably what put them on the market, Robinson’s 2016 fall feels more like gravity pulling him back down (although he dropped further than I would have expected and should bounce back some in 2017). There’s arguments both ways on this as Robinson is also younger, had a decent seeming offence in place and had a season on the cheap before a massive extension would be due, however it was a massive pay rise as he jumped into the top tier of receivers, unlike Landry (who also commanded a first plus trade price) who finished just shy of a top tier extension cost. Ultimately, double firsts (and better ones than were paid for Bryant / Thomas) seems an slight overpay, just because Thomas and Landry didn’t quite stretch to double firsts, and I just don’t think he was established as a top tier player like Bryant and Thomas were, but it’s certainly not an indefensible one.

Meanwhile, Champions spent the 1.05 on Sterling Shepherd and traded away the 1.06 in the previously discussed Tate / Michael Thomas trade. So instead of picking Thomas and Shepherd and being clear winners in this trade they’ve ended up trading away a potential stud for a pair of at-best WR2s. That seems like a push at the moment, and will most likely come down to whether or not Robinson delivers WR1 value. If he doesn’t, his extension cost will mean the value pairing of Tate and Shepherd win out, but Shepherd’s ceiling is low with an in-decline Eli and a much-better Odell Beckham limiting his value to somewhere in the region of a WR3 and Tate looked poor for most of last year as Detroit struggled offensively so there’s plenty of scope for both sides to come away feeling unhappy about this, especially with what could have been for the Champions with Thomas.

And that brings us to the other side of this deal. While the Brees co-managers sit there wondering if they’re going to be stuck with a massively overpaid disappointment in Robinson, the Bombermen get Aaron Donald – outscoring all receivers and all other defensive players in both 2015 and 2016. I call that a win at almost any price. The two firsts the Bombermen gave up – 1.05 in 2016 and 1.08 in 2017 have gone on receivers, partly on Robinson as discussed and on Jon Ross (via a small trade up from 8 to 7), but realistically unless you end up with two WR1s out of that, then it’s hard to call it anything other than a loss, especially considering the massive salary differential between top tier receivers and a top DT (even after the Suh deal this summer). There is a light at the end of this tunnel though, and it might not even be a train. The Rams might be changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme with Jeff Fisher and Greg Williams being shown the door. If Donald ends up moved from DT to DE his point-scoring will drop significantly (just look at Kerry Hyder’s points in 2016’s league and in 2017’s following re-classification, they’ve virtually halved), and his extension cost will sky-rocket, if that happens then what looked like a rock solid win for the Bombermen becomes much, much more debatable. Ultimately it’ll still come down to how Robinson bounces back, and whether Ross is any sort of success, but they go from needing to find two top five receivers to maybe one top 10 receiver and a solid WR2. The 4th round pick in this trade I’ve mostly ignored so far, but for posterity’s sake it was spent on Braxton Miller, so it deserved to be ignored.

As a result then I’d say that while the Champions / Brees part of the trade is fairly even (with the Brees having the better potential to come out on top), the Brees are very much on the downside of the overall trade, swapping a defensive player who out-performs even the top receivers (for less money) for a player who isn’t a top receiver. While keeping to the cap doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Brees management as yet and maybe ameliorates some of that downside, it does still limit their ability to compete for the top free agents, or extend some useful players. It’s also fair to say that both the Brees and Champions GMs should feel more than a little bit rueful, as in both cases they had a chance to get both Shepherd and Thomas with those 1.05 and 1.06 picks and both teams would be in a better position if they’d just stopped after the first trade and used the picks they’d garnered.

Addendum There’s two teams not included in this write-up at all. That’s nothing against those teams, it’s just that I mostly found their trades fell into the ‘player-heavy’ category or the two picks for two picks category. The Dungeoneers did get a mention in one of the write-ups and pulled off some nice business, fleecing the Firebirds into giving up anything for Ryan Tannehill, the Bombermen into giving up good players for bad ones in the Carlos Hyde trade and getting the 1.02 pick for fat Eddie Lacy which they used on Amari Cooper (then wasted their own 1.03 on Kevin White, so that feels like a push to me). While that seems like a list of wins, they also overpaid the Brees for Keenan Allen’s one game a year and got absolutely destroyed by Kelkowski (the other team not mentioned) when they traded away Doug Baldwin for Stevie Johnson (oops). Kelkowski’s trades are mostly terribly dull and involve buying or selling expiring contracts at the trade deadline for 6th and 7th round picks.

The NFL Draft: Part Two

April 27, 2017

David Slater

So this is where the excitement comes – running backs. That’s true particularly this year, with a crop of varied and interesting talents. But before we deal with the individuals, let’s just quickly recap what I said in part one, about the draft value of Running Backs.

Running back is a deep position, and one that offers an immediate reward – all of the top ten rookies since 2007 at RB scored enough points in their first three years to crack the top ten over the last three years, in fact, all of the top 19 would have cracked the top 19 (and the 20th only misses out by a couple of points). However, draft position isn’t a great guide, with the top selected RB only making the top 10 once, and top three picks only accounting for 4 spots out of 10, with only two of the top ten were selected in round 1 (the top 2). And there’s a much bigger drop off between the best (800 points) and the 10th best (500) at the position that at either of the other two main offensive positions.

What that doesn’t cover is the longevity, the variable performances (Lacy for example, is one of the top ten rookies over the first three years, but at this point he’s pretty much a bum, who’s mainly drawing interest because he *might* do something again) and the meh-ness of a lot of the candidates who make the top ten in the bottom part of it, rather than at the elite level. Also, it does cover, but bears repeating, that the NFL draft position is not a particularly good guide to success, essentially making running back a profitable crapshoot. For anyone interested, here’s a list of rookie running backs over their first three seasons.

Anyway, on with the class – in less detail than the QBs, hopefully, as there’s a lot more of them..

Leonard Fournette (LSU) The consensus top RB in the draft, hardly a surprise as the guy is a serious slab of beef at 240 lbs in only a 6’0 frame. Unlike most big backs, he’s not slow though. In fact he’s downright fast, not just fast for a power guy. His 4.51 40 was only a couple of tenths slower than both Cook (210) and McCaffrey (202), with only Mixon and Freeman (both 233 and 4.45 / 4.46 respectively) showing a similar combination of speed and size. What they don’t have though is the same power level. This is not a runner you want to be waving an arm at, as he’s going to brush it off with disdain. I’ve picked the game against Auburn in 2015 as a decent showcase, though I was tempted to use the 2016 equivalent (I didn’t in the end, because I didn’t feel like it was fair to use a game from 2016, during which he battled ankle trouble all year). I feel like across these two you get a decent microcosm of the best and worst of him. One of the most startling and attractive elements is his speed, and the way he breaks arm tackles like he’s brushing off spider webs. And once he breaks loose of the bigger guys at the line, he will be a nightmare for most safeties or linebackers to try and bring down. However, in both tapes you see his tendency to try to break tackles with strength, rather than elusiveness. I mentioned above his 2016 season being hampered by ankle trouble, and I don’t see that injuries aren’t going to be a big concern for whoever ends up drafting him. Focusing on the 2016 game, though evident in the 2015 game also, there’s two other concerns that shine through. He’s not a patient runner, he runs in straight lines, at daylight and he doesn’t have great vision. He’s also an absolutely atrocious blocker in pass protection (and not too good in the passing game), and that might see him regularly off the field in scoring situations.

Auburn were one of the better defences (less so in 2015), and the SEC is not for the faint-hearted in general, but I would also be concerned about his performances against Alabama – in 2015 he had 19 carries for 31 and in 2016 17 for 35. A lot of that is due to the fact Alabama’s defensive front over-whelmed pretty much every offensive line, but it does throw up a warning flag for fantasy owners drafting Fournette. If he ends up in the wrong spot, behind a bad line, he could be a pretty spectacular bust – that lack of elusiveness, low patience and poor vision then become significant problems and likely see him regularly stopped behind the line. He’s consistently linked to Carolina, and while they invested fairly heavily in their line, they didn’t invest particularly well – both in terms of the quality of the players and not fixing problem spots. I’m not sure I’d be happy to spend a potential #1 pick on him if he ends up there. Better that he falls to someone like Philly in the middle of the first.

He’s drawn comparisons with AP, not because he likes beating children but because of that freak combination of power and speed, and that’s not unfair on that level. However, AP was a much more competent runner, with better vision and much more elusiveness and patience. Assuming he doesn’t land somewhere terrible think somewhere on a spectrum between Alfred Morris and AP, probably about 66% towards AP.

Dalvin Cook (FSU) Has taken a bit of a beating for his combine performance. His 40 was fine, if unspectacular, but his 3-cone drill and shuttle runs were outright terrible. He did however perform fine in the vert and was strong in the bench press. What does that tell us? That he’s not got a career as a dancer or a sprinter, but neither of those are the end of the world for a player who could be the first back off the board this weekend (unless he had his heart set on going on Dancing with the Stars). Cook’s a workhorse – not as freakish as Fournette, but he’s been more productive with a higher workload than him, and he’s a better weapon in the passing game, though not someone you’d call gifted in that area. Where with Fournette you can point to the peaks (vs Auburn in 2015) and the troughs (vs Alabama), there’s a steadiness to Cook – his “worst” games came in the middle of 2016 where he was carrying a prodigious workload (30+ touches a game) and was ‘only’ averaging between 5 and 6 yards a rush. This game against Miami from this year is from the midst of that run, but highlights why teams will be tempted to take him early – he just reliably churns out those 4-5 yard gains, hitting the hole, and when a crease opens up, he can go through it quickly enough (though he doesn’t have the explosiveness you see with Fournette, who finds another gear when that space appears). He does get lost in pass protection a little, but his reliability and versatility make him a three-down back.

His prodigious workload would be one of my concerns were I in an NFL front office. Just how much wear and tear has he picked up at FSU, particularly in relation to his two shoulder injuries could end up defining not just his draft position, but his longevity and impact. There are other red flags, and he’s not a player who’s avoided trouble, but the overall picture is of a guy who wants to play football, and does his best to avoid trouble. The stories about him from the Senior Bowl don’t ring true, and seem a lot like last year’s Laremy Tunsil drama – the work of a vindictive third party who’s perhaps playing a longer game of trying to scare other/future prospects into accepting his offer of help by showing what happens if they don’t. Ultimately, this stuff doesn’t help, but a lot of teams ‘don’t have player x on their draft board because of concerns’ when really they just mean ‘we have no chance of drafting him’ or ‘we have no need at this position’. And it really doesn’t matter what 31 other teams think, as long as one team likes you. As for comparisons and fantasy value… I think Fournette is more your lottery ticket, potential top three back, but Cook is the reliable every down back who’ll churn out top ten seasons, like Frank Gore or Jeremy Hill. Well worth the top three pick he’ll almost certainly command in the Dynabowl.

Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) is probably my favourite running back in the draft this year. He’s not as strong as Cook or Fournette, but he’s such a versatile weapon in both the passing and rushing games. I am genuinely excited to see what he can do in the NFL. Let’s start by dispelling some of the weird ideas people have got – he’s not a receiver. He’s a running back, and he’s more than capable of carrying the load, as his 2000 yard, 340 carry 2015 season showed. It’s lost among the many stats and records he broke on his way to breaking Barry Sanders NCAA all-purpose yardage record in 2015 as well as being the leader in that category again in 2016, that the majority of his work is still done on the ground. McCaffrey wowed at the combine in both the 3-cone and shuttle drills, and his quick feet and ability to make guys miss was fully on show in the PAC-12 title game against USC when he scored rushing, receiving and passing touchdowns on a day when he had over 450 all-purpose yards. His lack of physical strength was demonstrated by a fairly pathetic bench press performance, and teams might have some concern about him as a three-down back, but on the right team they could just split him out as a slot receiver on some of those plays and bring in a fullback to protect instead.

It’s unlikely he goes off the board before Fournette or Cook in either the NFL or a fantasy draft, but McCaffrey is the guy I’d most want in fantasy leagues, he’s just productive in all phases of the game, and always a threat to break a big play, and depending on where he lands (the Saints, the Giants) he could easily find himself catapulted to the top of fantasy draft boards. It’s a little obvious to make the comparison with Sproles or Bush, and it doesn’t quite fit as while he’s a much better runner, he’s not quite as dangerous in the open field. I think if you start thinking of Shady McCoy, but temper your expectations down from quite that height, you’re pretty close. I mentioned the Saints and Giants, but realistically it’s very hard to see him falling past Philly (and I wouldn’t rule out the Ravens either), but if he does, I can see the Broncos aggressively moving up for him. Suffice to say, where with Cook I made the point it only takes one team to fall in love, with McCaffrey it seems like many have, and it may be a question of who is willing to be the most aggressive to secure him.

Alvin Kamara (Tennessee) is the sign that we’re definitely into the second cut of receivers. Originally recruited by Alabama, injuries and better players saw him essentially redundant there, and he ended up at Tennessee after a year in junior college. Two years of consistent play and here we are. Just shy of 2,000 yards from scrimmage despite a relatively small number of touches, and a sizeable chunk of scoring plays. He’s a versatile weapon, but has little to separate him from the rest of the running back pack – he’s not strong like Fournette, agile like McCaffrey nor quick, like Foreman or Mixon. He’s just a solidly productive back in both the passing and the running game, and in the mid to late second round could end up being a relatively good pick for a productive offence looking for a versatile weapon (hello Green Bay). His fantasy value will very much be tied to where he lands, but assuming he doesn’t end up on an outright terrible team (SF, Cleveland) or stuck behind a better back as a useful piece of a committee (like New England’s), he’ll be a nice addition for whoever drafts him. I’d probably prefer to get him early in the second in the Dynabowl, but I doubt he’ll drop that far, even as the fifth or sixth RB off the board. This game against a very good Texas A&M defence (including presumptive #1 pick Myles Garrett) is easily the best of his college career, and highlights his low to the ground running style and ability to break off a big run. I made a point of talking down Mitch Trubisky for being a reliable and unspectacular QB option, but that’s because reliable and unspectacular QBs with no particular strengths or glaring weaknesses aren’t good for fantasy owners (nor are they particularly good for NFL teams). Running backs who are average at everything however are much more enticing, and unspectacular reliability is a solid foundation for a low RB1/high RB2 that you’d be very happy to get with a late first / early second pick. It’s possible that he’ll end up as a complementary piece to a main back, like Jeremy Hill in Cincy. At which point he becomes a very low value pick, considering his low upside against the cost of the pick.

D’Onta Foreman (Texas) led the NCAA with over 2000 yards in 2016, emerging from the depths of the Texas depth chart to have a spectacular season. He’s not an exciting prospect at the next level though, as there’s really not much to his game. He’s a bruising runner, with no real elusiveness or guile, and he’s no threat in the passing game. He’ll be a solid pick up in the mid-rounds of the NFL draft, but in fantasy he’ll probably end up over-drafted. He might emerge from a committee or because of injuries, but as he enters the draft he’s most likely seen as a committee piece, because he’s simply not going to see play in any passing situation (except as a blocker). Because he’s probably the fifth or sixth best back in the draft, I’d recommend steering clear unless he gets a very sweet landing spot in the NFL (Oakland, Washington would be good). Where he could excel is if he gets a job behind a good offensive line and emerges as a clear starter. At Texas he displayed good patience to follow his blocks, and despite what I said about his lack of elusiveness he’s still capable of cutting and following the flow of the play. While he lacks explosive acceleration, that’s not the same as him lacking speed, as he displayed with his quick 40 time. He needs a few steps to get going, but when he does he’s plenty quick enough, especially considering his 233lb frame. One thing he does have in his favour is nobody will doubt his durability, nor his ability to be a workhorse back, and the consistency of his performance in 2016 will probably catch the eye of some scouts. Anyway, here he is against Oklahoma State.

Right, that just leaves two main guys left, team mates Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon (Oklahoma). While there’s a lot of other backs left, and notable ones (Pumphrey, Gallman for example) there needs to be a line drawn somewhere and this feels like about the right spot – somewhere in the 4th round of the NFL draft.

So, starting with Samaje Perine – a three year starter on a perenially competitive Oklahoma team, Perine absolutely smashed the bench press at the combine and that’s ultimately what you need to know about him. Everything I just said about Foreman applies again here – he’s nowhere near the quickness of Foreman or Fournette though, he’s just a classic big, strong back. Like Brandon Jacobs, only not afraid of being tackled. Perine probably won’t do much at the next level, I don’t honestly see him cracking the top twenty rookies, but he could end up being one of those breakout guys – like Rob Kelley – who win your fantasy league for you if he ends up on a team with a shaky depth chart, or injuries bite hard. As for fantasy picks, he’ll get taken, but I wouldn’t bother unless he lands in a spot like SF or Cleveland where he’ll be a default starter, as otherwise he’s at best he’s a handcuff to your main guy.

And last of all… Joe Mixon so let’s start, as with everyone else, of a video of him in action. It’s near impossible to predict where he’ll land. I mean, he’s being only McCaffrey as an all-purpose threat in this draft and in college football last year, so it’s not a question of his on-field production, he’d potentially be in the mix with Cook, Fournette and McCaffrey at the top of this draft on footballing talent alone.

But this wasn’t the only incident involving him, with his suspension for an incident (abusive and violent – though not physically – towards a female parking attendant) this season, as well as his suspension for a year for the punch in the video. Ultimately teams may feel this is a ticking time-bomb and the negativity around him doesn’t warrant the pick. Let’s face it, the league hates controversy and nobody has yet signed Kaepernick when all he did was kneel down. Ray Rice and Ray McDonald haven’t played again, while Greg Hardy also finds himself on the black-list, though it took longer than it should have for him to get there. It’s really awkward, because talent tends to trump controversy in most cases (Tyreek Hill got drafted after all), but the video of the incident is on another level entirely, worse even than the Rice one. There is also a question about where the league will fall on this, whether Mixon will face the wrath of Goodell for something that happened long before he entered the league. Whether Goodell even has the authority to punish someone for that. Either way, it seems likely there’s a TMZ element to this that will turn a number of teams off completely, particularly those involved in abuse scandals before (49ers, Ravens, Panthers), but at some point, the risk will be outweighed by the reward. As with Carroo last year, he’s not a player I’d be drafting in fantasy, no matter how far he falls. He’s a cunt, and so are you if you draft him. Talent-wise though, he’s a top six pick, and that’s where he’ll go.

The 2017 NFL Draft: Part One

April 27, 2017

David Slater

Rookie Draft Video YouTube No Comments

In the past couple of years I’ve focused on doing a preview of the prospects post-draft, but too often that comes down to talking about the player as a piece of a depth chart, instead of as a prospect. It also feels awkward as I feel like I’m giving away my own draft board, so this time I’m going to focus more on the prospect, and talk about what sort(s) of situation might suit, or not suit them. I’m also going to look at some wider trends in performance.

Anyway, let’s start with the most important position in the NFL, and the one that sits at the top of your fantasy roster – the Quarterback.

Let’s take a quick look at what sort of value a QB can bring. Here’s a list of the first three years for QBs entering the league since 2007, if you total up their fantasy points from those stats (approximately, doesn’t include 2pt conversions and fumbles) then the top 6 rank as follows:

Newton (995), Luck (938), Wilson (887), Dalton (763), Bortles (762), Carr (739) with Tannehill, Ryan, Griffin and Flacco following them. As a rough guide, that 995 points for Newton would be equivalent to having the 2nd ranked QB on average over the last three seasons (who the second ranked QB is will potentially change each season). In fact, Newton, Luck and Wilson’s total points are all higher than the 5th ranked QBs in each of the last three years, despite the fact those individuals change each year and should in theory perform better than an individual who might get hurt, have a down year or whatever (even accounting for the fact those averages exclude week 17, and include fumbles etc I’d still expect them to be better than an individual).

How does that compare with other positions? Well, running back goes deeper. All of the top ten rookies since 2007 at RB scored enough points in their first three years to crack the top ten over the last three years, in fact, all of the top 19 would have cracked the top 19 (and the 20th only misses out by a couple of points). That perhaps shouldn’t come as a surprise given that longevity is the exception, rather than the rule, at the position and that these players have much more college wear and tear on them than others. There are some significant caveats here though – draft position is relevant for QBs. 8 of the top 10 were amongst the first three QBs off the board in their drafts, with Wilson – in a deep draft at the position (4 top 10 players) – and Dalton – in a really bad year for QB scouts (behind Locker, Gabbert and Ponder) – the 5th QBs selected. At RB, this is very different, with the top selected RB only making the top 10 once, and the top three only accounting for 4 spots. In fact, only two of the top ten were selected in round 1 (the top 2). There’s also a much bigger gap between the best ranked at RB and the 10th ranked – 300 points (against a max of 800), compared with 250 at QB (against a max of 1000), so it’s easier to hit the top 10 at RB.

At WR is where things get really messy – as at QB, only 3 of the top 10 rookies would make the top 10 WRs, unlike QB though, only Odell Beckham would do more than creep in at the bottom of it. Six of the top 10 were amongst the top three receivers off the board, so draft position is a reasonable indicator, but being first off the board is actually not much of an indication of anything, with only two first pick receivers (Green and Megatron) finding a spot in the top 20 rookies. And being highly drafted doesn’t help either with 5 out of 8 top 10 overall picks missing out on the top 30 rookies. Perhaps this isn’t a surprise, WRs can be slow burners and develop late, while they’re being compared with players who’ve learned a system and run a fully developed route tree, as well as having established relationships with their QBs, though being outperformed by other rookies isn’t particularly good. However, in terms of making an extension evaluation down the line, it’s pretty clear that drafting a receiver is going to give a similar reward to drafting a QB, but without the same sort of confidence in the evaluation of the player by NFL teams. However, it’s still most likely that teams will go for a WR over a QB on draft day. In term of spread, the top 10 have a spread of about 190 points with a maximum of 700. Obviously, WR is a deeper position though, and all of the top 20 rookies outscored the average score of the 30th WR, so they’d still be starting quality players, where anyone outside the top 3 QBs would only be fit to cover byes and injuries (ignoring the future development possibilities). The other thing to bear in mind here is that it’s a much deeper position, so the top 20 receivers represents only 1 in 4 of the rookies in the period examined.

But enough about how a QB pick compares with other positions… let’s take a look at this year’s class, starting with the likely top four picks – Watson, Kizer, Trubisky and Mahomes.

It’s not easy to predict the order of these four picks, or indeed where they’ll all go, though I’d be surprised if any remained by the end of the second round. Despite some QB needy teams at the top of the draft, and the importance of the position, it’s unlikely any of the players go in the top six. The depth at the position is part of this, as last year’s two prospects were no less flawed, and there weren’t fewer teams with needs at QB, but an overall weaker draft and worse depth pushed them to the top of the board, despite some serious issues. Anyway, with no real order to fall back on, let’s go with the strength of their college resume.

Deshaun Watson (Clemson) There’s an established narrative around Watson at this point – lacks arm strength, makes some bad throws, has probably the best intangibles of any QB in the draft though. That’s perhaps a little unfair and over-accentuates the negatives. He definitely makes some bad throws, he just sometimes doesn’t see or read coverage correctly, and that results in his high interception count. He also tends to get the ball out too fast, throwing off his back foot and soft-balling passes, which is possibly why there’s a question mark over his velocity and arm strength (although he’s built like Bridgewater more than Newton, so maybe he just doesn’t have that much arm strength), and that poor footwork and low velocity combine to make some very interceptable passes. All of which said, he plays in the ACC, not the PAC-12 and there’s been some good NFL QBs who’ve not looked elite in that conference. Russell Wilson started in the ACC with NC State and hardly set the world alight, with 26 interceptions (Watson had 32) on a similar number of passes, before going to Wisconsin for his Senior year and lighting it up, throwing only 4. Winston (at FSU) threw 28 in 27 games (Watson’s 32 are in 38), also in the ACC and also going to two national championships, but in his case he was throwing much more aggressively downfield than Clemson do. On the non-athletic side, however, Waston is a slam dunk pick. Elevating his team to back-to-back championship games, and producing his best performance in those games, against the best team and best defence in the college game. Perhaps, never more evident than in the defeat in the 2015 final.

He’d be a great pick for a team with a decent defence who can overcome his occasional bad throws, but who desperately need an offensive leader – the Jets and the Bills jump out more than say the Cards or the Texans as a good fit then, and the Broncos (depending on how they feel about Siemian and Lynch) might be a suprise contender where Watson could play with a great D and develop into a true star, as Wilson has in Seattle. Much like Wilson, one of the strengths of Watson’s game is his ability to react to pressure, roll out of the pocket, find space and make a throw, and while he might not end up being as good a pure passer as say Mariota, he offers more dynamism, toughness and that ability to produce with his feet might just make him a fantasy viable option if he can cut down on the bad plays. For a QB-needy team, he’s worth a mid-round pick, just because his upside with his feet make him a potential starter down the line.

Mitch Trubisky (North Carolina) Let’s be clear here, I’m not going to be particularly kind to Trubisky. It’s not that he looks bad statistically (college stats don’t mean much in terms of conversion to the NFL), in fact, his stats don’t look massively dissimilar to Watson in some ways – virtually idential passer efficiency and completion percentages, and a similar ypa. He’s thrown less than half the passes, but only a third of Watson’s interceptions (both playing in the ACC), although also throwing less than half of the TDs, and offering little in the running game. It’s more a question of where’s the excitement, the *thing* that makes him someone to get excited about. He took over an 11-3 team, out-performed Marquise Williams on a personal level, and finished 8-5 with a bowl loss, leading a team who started as high as 15th (and never outperformed that ranking) to 30th in the final rankings. I know the college success doesn’t lead to NFL success, and college failure doesn’t translate to NFL failure either, but there’s something very bland about Trubisky’s college career. No bowl win, a loss to rivals Duke, no signature wins, defeats by 3 of the 5 top 25 teams they faced, including Stanford in the Sunbowl, and a very mediocre schedule (mostly conference games, with defeats in 2 out of the 3 non-conference games against other power 5 teams, and no game against Louisville or Clemson, the best two teams in the ACC), three games against top 25 defences but two defeats in those and easily his least impressive performance against Virginia Tech in probably the biggest game they played all year (aside from the bowl loss).

Simply put, he’s a mediocre candidate, promoted to the top of many mocks because there’s nothing significantly offensive that pundits can mark him down for. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the first QB off the board, but I’d also not be surprised if he was third or fourth either, just because he’s the equivalent of eating vanilla ice cream in a magnolia room while listening to Ed Sheeran, and any team evaluating him probably fell asleep at the sheer boringness they encountered. As a player, he doesn’t have exceptional arm strength, it’s not questionable, like Watson’s, but not particularly notable either. He’s neither inaccurate, nor accurate. He’s OK under pressure, moving and buying time, but he doesn’t scramble or make plays with his feet, his mechanics aren’t perfect, and his footwork on throws could use some work. He’s played almost exclusively out of the shotgun and pistol, in a simple zone-read, so he’s not NFL ready in that sense, and there’s no cleverness to his play, locking on to and staring down his targets. Unlike Watson or Mahomes there’s no real players you can point to and say he’s got a bit of Cam Newton, or Russell Wilson as there’s just not that much tape to look at and no obvious comparisons. I’d guess just for his sheer bland, inoffensiveness and total lack of excitement there’s Andy Dalton, and for his total lack of anything worth getting excited about in his college career there’s Matt Ryan, but ultimately trying to compare him or project him to the NFL is going to be really tough, as a result, I wouldn’t recommend spending a pick on him in a fantasy draft, no matter where he lands. Anyway, here he is absolutely stinking the place out against Virginia Tech, with bad throws and bad decisions galore against one of the better defences he played.

Patrick Mahomes II (Texas Tech) I don’t really know if Texas or ND were worse this year, let’s just settle on saying neither will be selling commemorative DVDs of their seasons. Mahomes displaced Davis Webb (we’ll get to him later) midway through 2014 and held the job at Texas Tech for two and a half years. There’s clear progression and development over that time, adding more TDs, improving his accuracy and cutting down on the interceptions. However there’s no real improvement to Texas Tech. Unlike Trubisky, I’m not putting that on Mahomes, who had to contend with the worst defence in the entirety of FBS football this year, yet somehow managed to go 5-7 with a team who conceded an average of 550 yards and 45 points a game. As a result, a lot of their scorelines look more like they belong more on Cricinfo than a football game, but they were fun to follow. And that’s something you can certainly reflect on Mahomes himself. He’s a gunslinger in the Favre model, feeling his way through games and defences, rather than having a carefully scripted plan that he sticks to. That’s probably not going to be entirely popular with NFL teams, but it does mean that when plays break down he’s not going to be afraid to improvise and make things happen – although not with his feet, he’s not much of a rusher/scrambler. That can count against him, with the odd bad decision – usually throwing late trying to make something happen, instead of throwing it away – but he has probably the best arm strength of the top candidates and good touch and placement, as befits the son of a former MLB player, and a kid who played baseball himself (even being drafted by the Tigers).

He didn’t take a lot of snaps under centre, like Trubisky, he worked mainly from the shotgun, and the air raid offence at Texas Tech is one of the most QB friendly in all of football, so he’s definitely not pro-ready, basically. But… and it’s an important but, there’s a lot to like, and a lot that can be worked on. This isn’t like Watson’s arm-strength issues, that are probably going to dog him all his career. Mahomes has the scope to improve, assuming he has the right attitude to do so. Most of all, he’s a tough competitor, playing through some pretty tough hits and injuries. Which is probably for the best as he has all the pocket awareness of a tackling dummy. If he can learn to read and feel pressure (and know when to throw it away, or get it out fast), he could be a top fantasy QB, particularly if he ends up in the right spot – behind Roethlisberger or Carson in Pittsburgh or Arizona, in an offence with playmakers who like to be aggressive, and won’t be scared of his tendency to be a gunslinger. He’s a stash and see, wherever he lands, but don’t be too surprised if he ends up being the best fantasy option in this draft, and even if he isn’t, you’ll have had the fun of watching him play. Anyway, here he is setting an NCAA all-time record with 819 passing yards against Oklahoma

DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) There was a point in 2016 where Kizer was the presumptive number one QB, on one of the best teams in football. Then they actually played some games, and it became very clear, very fast that Notre Dame stunk and that Kizer was not going to have the breakout season many expected. Perhaps those expectations were unfair, Notre Dame had lost a lot of talent to the NFL (Ronnie Stanley, Will Fuller, CJ Prosise being just some of the players who left), but in Josh Adams, Equanimious St Brown and Torii Hunter Jr they weren’t exactly left with a bare cupboard on offence either. Kizer did improve – adding more TDs, and cutting down his interceptions, but doing so by cutting down the distance on his passes, and despite this losing accuracy. That’s not a great combo, but it’s not entirely on him. Much like Trubisky, I have the concern that the coaches working with him every day didn’t seem to be sold on him. ND did stick by Kizer, but Kelly never seemed totally convinced.

So why are teams so interested in a guy who has easily the worst statistical record of any of the top four candidates? Kizer is probably the best athlete, and the closest to the physical shape and build teams look for in a QB, he’s just a natural athlete, he’ll be a mobile QB, comfortable in the zone-read offence, but he’s capable of more than that – he’s got good pocket presence and he keeps calm and stands tall even as the pocket starts to crumble. That’s mostly a positive, but it does also dovetail with his biggest weakness – he holds onto the ball too long, not taking on passes at times that are there to be made. That’s not a killer for the modern NFL QB, as taking the sack is definitely better than making a bad throw and turning it over, but it’s also a signal that he can hesitate or be put off a throw by a DB, which could be problematic. As for his fantasy prospects, despite being a great athlete, he’s not a Kaepernick or a Newton who’s going to be better with his feet than his arm. It’s early to say how his career will play out, but perhaps the best comparison might be last year’s surprise package, Dak Prescott. Naturally athletic, far from stellar accuracy in college, but careful with the ball, capable of making enough throws and likely to be a success if he lands in the right spot with a good, balanced offence around him that doesn’t require him to do too much. I’d expect Kizer to be the most successful of the four QBs over the first three years before his owner needs to make an evaluation, but I think his long-term ceiling is probably low-end top 10 at best, and he could simply end up an Alex Smith type of QB, who’s solid, but never someone you’d be happy to have as a fantasy starter in a ten man league. Good fits for Kizer would be somewhere like Houston or the New York (Giants) – I just don’t trust him to elevate a team like Cleveland or San Francisco – but I think he could be a very effective fit on a team with a lot of talent around him.

There’s no standout tape of Kizer, so I’ve settled for the 2015 Fiesta bowl game against Ohio State – he played well enough in a loss against a very good team featuring NFL talent like Bosa and Lee on defence.

Right, that’s the main four covered in depth, so a quick scan of a couple of other candidates:

Davis Webb lost the job to Mahomes at Texas Tech due to injury and never won it back. Transferred to Cal this year after Goff went to the NFL. He’s not terrible, but given Mahomes was clearly considered better at Texas and that Goff has been an unmitigated disaster in LA, I’d not be in a hurry to go back to that well and draft a guy who was objectively worse than him in pretty much every category on the same team. That he’s considered the consensus 5th best option in this draft is a clear sign of how quickly it falls off a cliff at this point. Not a fantasy relevant option.

Brad Kaaya is what you draft if you wanted Kizer, but didn’t have a pick for him. He’s not quite as athletically developed and he’s even more hesitant – especially under pressure, where Kizer is quite strong – but I’d take him over Webb, he played in a much more pro-style offence in his final year at Miami, and put up good, if not stellar numbers in it. He should transition to the NFL and he could be a surprise success story, like Dak Prescott. More likely though he’s not going to be able to live with the looks and pressure NFL co-ordinators throw at him and he’ll end up with a decent career as a scout team QB after a brief and disastrous stint as a starter following injury. That’s probably harsh on Kaaya – Miami aren’t an elite team, and spent time in the top 25 this year before a four-game losing streak ended that. The thing is, that streak was against some good teams, and they were a team who won comfortably when they won (including their bowl game), but lost narrowly in three out of the four defeats. Kaaya’s line is not too different from Trubisky’s or Watson’s, coming out of the same ACC, and practically identical to Prescott’s, so it’s not like there’s not something there to work with. I’d not be spending a pick on him, even late, nor spending a taxi squad spot on him but if he lands in the right spot, he might be worth keeping a watching brief on as a future free agent or in-season pick up if he ends up in a starting role.

Chad Kelly is only included in this write up so I can make a joke about how if he actually gets drafted he might get drunk and send a third DM to Mia Khalifa, which will get published and we’ll all get to lol at the fratboy getting turned down by a porn star three times. Seriously though, Kelly has a small chance of making the transition to the NFL, he’s shown some stuff at Ole Miss, particularly in the last two seasons against Alabama. He’s just not shown it consistently enough, and he’s unlikely to hear his name until the last day of the draft. In the right spot, behind a shaky starter he might surprise, but it’s definitely not worth spending a pick to find out.

There’s some other candidates, like Peterman, but they’re not going to be fantasy relevant, unless they end up drafted by a team who’ve a clear and obvious need for a QB and will be looking to start him early. Even then I’d hold back – ultimately, they’re not going to be fantasy relevant year one barring a major surprise, so you’ll be able to see how they develop and make a play for them in free agency in 2018.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Two

September 24, 2015

Max Cubberley

Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

The spreadsheet has been fed this week and my dot matrix printer has finally finished churning out the data for me to pore through. This week I’ll take a look at the first two weeks performance from 2015 and compare it to the first two weeks from 2014 to see if we can build a picture of where each team’s fortunes will go from here.

Reality Bites

Below are comparisons of performance through week 2 of the 2015 and 2015 seasons, ordered by finishing order in the 2014 season.

	2014 Week 2	2014 Standing	2015 Week 2	POA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds	1-1 (137 poa)	7-6	1-1 (181 poa)	+44
Here Comes the Brees	1-1 (146 poa)	8-5	0-2 (152 poa)	+6
Dynasore Losers	2-0 (175 poa)	8-5	2-0 (172 poa)	-3
Kelkowski	2-0 (212 poa)	8-5	0-2 (153 poa)	-59
Dynablinker Obamamen	0-2 (168 poa)	7-6	0-2 (156 poa)	-12
Champions of the Sun	1-1 (181 poa)	6-7	2-0 (192 poa)	+11
Tamworth Two	2-0 (185 poa)	6-7	1-1 (167 poa)	-18
East Flanders Dungeoneers	1-1 (161 poa)	5-8	2-0 (158 poa)	-3
Dynasty of Sadness	0-2 (129 poa)	5-8	0-2 (154 poa)	+25
DynaHarder	0-2 (168 poa)	5-8	2-0 (223 poa)	+55

So let’s get the good news out of the way. DynaHarder have gone from an 0-2 start last season to a 2-0 start this season, having the highest average points in the process. The attendant 55 point jump in average score shows that the team has improved hugely over last season’s average start and there is still the return of Martivis Bryant and abhorrent human being Greg Hardy to come.

The other two significant improvements over last season can be seen at the Dynasty of Sadness and, worryingly, 2014 Superb Owl winners the Firebirds. The Sadness were a flimsy excuse for a fantasy football team last year and anything less than a big jump from 2014’s 129 average points would have been a disaster. Whilst the team are still at the bottom end of the points scorers they are not cut adrift like last season and can expect to be competitive. How the Firebirds improved from 2014’s disastrous start to claim the Owl may warrant an article on its own but the team has started strongly this year, being unfortunate to lose with the 3^rd highest score in week 1.

On the other side of the ball it would be remiss not to start with Kelkowski’s 59 point plummet from the first two games of last season. Last week I highlighted some of the reasons Jay and Ian might not be surprised by this but the extent of the drop off is alarming. Despite the poor start of the Breeses this year it’s worth noting that they’ve actually started better in terms of their weekly output this year, suggesting all may not be as bleak as first appeared. Could another unlikely playoff run emerge? Another team I believed to have regressed have proved me wrong through two weeks as the Dynasore Losers are still scoring at the same level as the opening of last season. Whether they can power up to the heights of 2014 as they go along remains to be seen.

What Might Have Been

Looking at what the teams actually scored in the first two weeks is all very well and good but to get a full picture of improvement and regression we should also look at their potential points. What do their best line-ups look like compared to last season? This will also highlight where GMs are more directly responsible for good or poor performance with their team selection.

	2014 Week 2	2015 Week 2	PPOA Diff
Dynaforone Firebirds	188 ppoa	228 (79% eff)	+40
Here Comes the Brees	210 ppoa	228 (67% eff)	+18
Dynasore Losers	212 ppoa	244 (70% eff)	+32
Kelkowski	265 ppoa	206 (74% eff)	-59
Dynablaster Bombermen	233 ppoa	232 (67% eff)	-1
Champions of the Sun	204 ppoa	258 (74% eff)	+54
Tamworth Two	261 ppoa	216 (77% eff)	-45
East Flanders Dungeoneers	212 ppoa	208 (76% eff)	-4
Dynasty of Sadness	206 ppoa	211 (73% eff)	+5
DynaHarder	250 ppoa	282 (79% eff)	+32

The numbers here back up the findings for the Firebirds and DynaHarder, showing an overall squad improvement to match their gameday improvement. The other big improvers are the Losers and the Champions, both of whom seem to have added a lot of depth between the start of last season and now, whether it was during the season last year, in the off-season or in the draft. The Breeses too can be happy that, whilst they’re squad still has holes, the actions Dan and Ben have taken have strengthened and added depth.

For the other 5 teams the story is either one of maintaining the status quo or of regression. Despite some strong additions, the Sadness seem to only have a squad as good as the start of last season, suggesting inefficient squad selection contributed to the team’s woes at the start of last year. The Bombermen and, surprisingly, the Dungeoneers also seem to have remained on par with the start of last season. The Dungeoneers are a strange one. To the naked eye, the team seems stronger than last season yet the stats don’t back that up so far. It’s early days, and GM Pete is building for the future, but if the team finishes the season not having outperformed last year’s iteration it should go down as a disappointment.

Kelkowski’s woes have been dwelt on enough but they can at least take solace that a 74% squad efficiency is not horrible and they are doing a good enough job of team selection. The Tamworth Two’s drop in potential points isn’t far short of Kelkowski’s however and that should be a cause of concern. The struggles of Alshon Jeffrey and Jonathan Stewart have certainly contributed to this but the defence has taken the biggest hit with Olivier Vernon and the linebacking unit firing blanks so far. It’s early days yet, of course, and defensive scoring is notoriously streaky but this is a situation worth keeping an eye on. The good news is that the Hogs’ 77% efficiency rating is second best in the league so they, at least, making the most of what they have.

In the efficiency stakes both Bens and both Dans will hope to improve their team selection in the coming weeks as the hot hands become clear and depth chart fog starts to dissipate. Both teams are at sub-70% efficiency which is a major barrier to success. David is, of course, PLOBbing the shit out of himself but what else would you expect? The Losers are still 2-0 so maybe his carefree team selection is motivating the troops.

Join me next time on Stat Blats where I’ll be doing something else with stats, probably, unless I’m not.

Guest Previews 2015: Dynasore Losers by Ian Kulkowski

September 3, 2015

Commish

League Business Previews No Comments

Welcome to a series of GM-led previews of the various teams of the Dynabowl Fantasy Football League. The opening preview is of the Dynasore Losers, GMed by David Slater and is brought to you by the letters K, U, L, K again, O, S, K for a third time and I.

Dynasore Losers

2014 record
8-5, 1st in Peter. 2nd in Points for, 2nd in Potential Points, 2nd in All play, semi final losers, 3rd place

“Everyone else’s team sucks” & “My way is definitely best” is what Slatz would almost certainly say if he were to write his own preview. Unfortunately looking through the train wreck that is their old, broken roster I can see nothing but pain and heartache ahead for the Losers this season.
But first, let’s try and focus on the positive a bit and see where the Losers have improved from last year…

Improvement
2 words. AP. That’s it. Without the child beating former superstar’s return to the game, this roster would be as dead as the majority of Josh Gordon’s brain cells. Will the return of not-human Peterson be enough to give this team a chance of repeating last year’s success? Whilst Peterson is capable of putting up some ridiculous numbers, even he will probably not be enough to carry this roster back to the playoffs.
Oh the other area of improvement for the Losers is kicker & punter (as described in great detail in the Commissioner’s preview). But so what? They’re kickers & punters.

Regression
Where to begin. Slatz built his roster around a solid aged core with the aforementioned Peterson and QB Peter Manning as lynchpins to the roster. After failing spectacularly during the final 5 weeks of last season there are now serious questions over Peter’s position as stud QB. With Manning potentially dropping down (and maybe out of) the top 10 QBs, this takes the Losers from a position of strength to bunch of middling options.
The addition of Winston (who definitely hasn’t sexually assualted anyone) to accompany Raiders sophomore Carr should provide a good future at the position, but it is likely too early for either of these to help the team too much this year.
There is a similar story at RB. Last years’ star performer (4th ranked overall RB) Forte will turn 30 during the season and is surely hitting the decline phase of his career. Depth at the position is also an issue with the loss of Stewart & Robinson in free agency. There are only 2 NFL starters amongst the RB corps so this is definitely a position which will cause GM Slatz some headaches as the season wears on.
More trouble at WR as the team has lost it’s anchor (and 2nd ranked WR last year) in Jordy Nelson. With Josh Gordon never likely to return the Losers are left with Emmanuel Sanders, Nelson Agholor, Torrey Smith & Larry Fitzgerald as their probable starting WR’s. Hardly the most fearsome foursome. TE also sees a potential downgrade with Graham’s move to Seattle.
On the defensive side of the ball, injuries, free agency and early retirement have left holes in the Losers roster. There are still good starters at most positions but the depth is now near non existent.

Ceiling
If Peter returns to his record breaking best, Adrian has a career year and the Losers find some receivers from somewhere then maybe all is not lost and this team has an outside shot of making the playoffs.
Then again, maybe not!

Floor
The floor’s (thankfully) the limit for the losers this year. If things don’t go their way then avoiding the prized first pick in the 2016 draft could be deemed a success.

Prediction
5-8. A complete reversal of last year and barring some miracle this losers franchise is going nowhere fast. GM Slatz has a big decision on his hands. Does he stick with the plan and try to compete as best he can, or does he sell the family silver and go into full blown rebuild mode.

A Trade Retrospective