Tag: AWE

2015 Commish Preview: The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

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Team: The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness – Mike Laycock/Mark Simpson

2014 Record: 5-8, 2nd pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Ameer Abdullah (RB), Jaelen Strong (WR)k, Arik Armstead (DE)

Free Agency – Josh Hill (TE), Bruce Irvin (LB)

Trade – Eddie Lacy (RB), Sheldon Richardson (DE), Markus Wheaton (WR), Drew Brees (QB)

Significant Losses:

Trade – Cam Newton (QB)

Preview:

2014 was not a fun year for the Dynasty of Sadness (DoS) and anything positive I can say about their performance is really a negative. They outperformed their AWE of 4.12 wins, making it all the way up to … 5 wins. They had only a 35% chance of making it up to 5 wins, to get to 6 would have been less than a 6% chance.

While the DoS did make it up to 9th in total points scored, they were more than 200 points behind the 8th place in that particular stat but worse than that, they were 10th in potential points, 150 points behind the Dungeoneers. Any way you look at it they put together an awful season.

And then to rub salt into the wound, despite that terrible performance, they still managed to win their game against the Dyna Hard and so lose out on the number 1 pick in the draft.

However, when you employ git-wizard David Blaine to magically turn that number 2 pick in the draft into Eddie Lacy, things start to look better. Running back was a real weak point for the DoS in 2014, with only 2 players reaching 100 points, and one of those was Shane Vereen, maxing out at 113.8. Add Ameer Abdullah into the mix, the rookie who has looked most effective in pre-season, and this could turn into a very good backfield.

Wide receiver was probably the only bright spot in 2014 with Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham Jnr and Golden Tate all putting up good scores. All 3 remain in 2015, but after that the depth drops off. Can Eric Decker, Brandon LaFell, Paul Richardson, Markus Wheaton or Jaelan Strong step up in the event of an injury?

Josh Hill is a good addition at TE, another underperforming unit in 2014, but, truth be told, no one knows what he’s capable of, not even Mama Hill.

The swap of Brees for Newton is putting the future eggs in the basket of Teddy Bridgeater. The news of the injury to Kelvin Benjamin suggests that Cam will find it hard to score as highly as might have been expected, but Brees has a completely redesigned offence around him too, with suggestions they will lean more heavily on the run. This may be much of a muchness and not affect the 2015 season much, with bigger questions surrounding whether Bridgeater can be as good a fantasy QB as he looks like he will be in the NFL.

The defence is an up and down affair. Undeniable strength at cornerback and above average linebackers are balanced by weakness at DT and DE. The length of suspension for Sheldon Richardson is still to be determined and the Jets haven’t confirmed they want to keep him. Based on 2014, defence is unpredictable so there’s always the chance that the players on the roster outperform current expectations, but league average defence is probably the top end of expectations.

Verdict:

Arguably the most improved team in the league but still some work to do to finish moulding them into a consistent winner. A glimmer of playoff possibility but perhaps a season too soon.

Prediction:

7-6. Sneaking into the playoffs isn’t beyond the realm of possiblity. They surely won’t be picking in the top 3 again and a 6-7 or 7-6 record seems entirely reasonable. Peter is arguably the weaker of the two divisions and with Lacy, OBJ and Dez Bryant there are enough stars here to take a run at the Divisional title.

2015 Commish Preview: Here Comes The Brees

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Team: Here Comes The Brees – Ben Archer/Dan Sayles

2014 Record: 8-5, 9th pick, Superb Owl runner-up

Significant Additions:

Draft – Tevin Coleman (RB), Breshad Perriman (WR), Phillip Dorsett (WR), Maxx Williams (TE)

Free Agency – Charles Johnson, WR), Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB), Owen Daniels (TE)

Trade – DeSean Jackson (WR), Charles Sims (RB), Isaiah Crowell (RB), Terrance West (RB), Marqise Lee (WR), Allen Hurns (WR)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Ben Roethlisberger (QB), Justin Forsett (RB),

Trade – Marcel Dareus (DT), Roy Helu (RB), Corey Brown (WR), Kendall Wright (WR), Martellus Bennett (TE)

Preview:

Runners-up in the Superb Owl, yes. Second best team in the league? Not so much. Here Comes The Brees was the little engine that could in 2014, reciting to itself over and over “I think I can, I know I can”. It came up just short in the most one-sided Superb Owls in history*. It was impressive, but was it sustainable? AWE tells us the Brees were the most over-performing team in the league. By more than 2 wins. They would have been expected to win just 5.88 games with their performance. They had a 14% chance of reaching 8 wins, but they made it and no one can take that away from them. Now comes that difficult second season.

They were 6th in total points scored, but 8th in potential points, with only the Dungeoneers and the Sadness having the potential to score fewer. The luck of the draw got them to the heights, but GMs Archer and Sayles have worked hard through the off-season to improve the roster.

Andrew Luck is a brilliant starting point for any fantasy team, but the running backs of Tampa, Cleveland and second string in St Louis are not the next building blocks you’d be looking for. Lamar Miller is a great option and Tevin Coleman holds promise but in a more pass-orientated offense.

DeSean Jackson and Charles Johnson are decent WR2/3 options but here they are carrying the can with a hobbled Cruz, a retiring Steve Smith, and an indeterminate Reuben Randle being the main back-up. The rookies all offer decent potential , but are either coming through camp with injuries or battling for a place in a crowded field. They look good, just not for 2015. Tight end holds promise, if any of them can make it through a full season.

The defence is more promising. Anyone who can put out Aaron Donald every week is cheating because one week he’ll be on a bye, but Donald is an immense talent and, Luck aside, the best player on the roster. However, this is a league brimming with DE talent and it’s an area where the Brees are lacking. Two ends will be needed each week which will not be to their advantage.

Further back, Harrison Smith is a star at safety but otherwise the defence is middling. Those stars should push the defence into mid-table existence, but the question is, have they improved enough from 2014?

Verdict:

Let’s get right to it and answer that question I posed at the end of the preview – no. They haven’t. Sorry. Did you want me to wrap that up in cotton wool and put a bow on it? Last season the astute pick-up of Justin Forsett after week 1 helped the team push on. Similar waiver work will be needed to turn this team into something competitive in 2015, but there are enough young players on the roster now to suggest there’s hope for 2016 and 2017.

Prediction:

5-8 and the 2nd pick in the draft. That 2nd pick could come in pretty handy when it comes to redeveloping this squad.

*While this statement may be true right now purely because there’s only been one, come back in 10 years and it’ll still be just as true. DynaForOne more than doubled the Brees’ score.

2015 Commish Preview: East Flanders Dungeoneers

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Team: East Flanders Dungeoneers – Pete Conaghan

2014 Record: 5-8, 3rd pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Amari Cooper (WR), Kevin White (WR), Devin Smith, (WR)

Free Agency – Justin Forsett (RB), Coby Fleener (TE)

Trade – Cam Newton (QB), Ryan Tannehill (QB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Vernon Davis (TE), Stevie Johnson (WR)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB)

Trade –Eddie Lacy (RB), Drew Brees (QB), Andre Johnson (WR), Connor Barwin (LB), Vontae Davis (CB), Frank Gore (RB), Charles Clay (TE), Jason Witten (TE)

Preview:

We’ll go through the motions with what happened last year but it almost has no bearing on 2015 given the wholesale changes that have occurred throughout this team. Very little remains in place for 2014 and given the miserable performance that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But let’s go back and look at that miserable performance first.

An Apollonean Win Expectation (AWE)* of 4.18 against 5 actual wins shows that the Dungeoneers overperformed while the schedule analysis showed they had a 41% chance of reach 5 wins. They scored the fewest points, had the second lowest potential points and the league worst selection efficiency, 3.9% worse than the Hard in 9th place. There was not much to smile about.

The team had money to spend but free agency was not packed with options. Instead, the Dungeoneers have shifted money forward for the traded contracts to ensure cap space in future years when more players should be available, and in the meantime have moved to revamp the roster as much as possible.

The move for the second pick in the draft from DoS meant losing Eddie Lacy, the undisputed star player on the team. The Dungeoneers had better hope that Amari Cooper develops into a suitable replacement because Kevin White, taken at 3, is already out for 2015 and the lack of opportunity to develop this year may severely limit his impact in 2016 and beyond.

Lacy aside, the running back corps are stronger than last year. Forsett is a strong grab, if only a short term option. Trading midseason to a team in contention for more picks or youth might be a sensible way to capitalise on him. Carlos Hyde is a better long term option, though the risk of the 49ers consistently playing from behind means he may not get the carries that would have been hoped for back before everyone good at 49ers decided they’d either rather do anything but play for Jim Tomsula or consoled themselves in vast quantities of alcohol.

At wide receiver Allen and Floyd could both put up good numbers, as could the aging Marshall, but there’s a strong young core here who, while they won’t be ready to truly compete in 2015, should offer some glimpses. As well as Cooper and White, there’s Davonte Adams, Kenny Stills and Devin Smith. All could contribute and the Dungeoneers will only need one of them to become a B level star to start smiling. Again, selling Marshall mid-season to a contender, if he’s doing well in New York, would seem to be the most sensible option to capitalise on him, because whatever he can do now will not help East Flanders into the playoffs and when they’re ready to make that leap, he will be on the verge of retiring.

The incoming Tannehill and Newton are two good signings, though Tannehill was far too expensive. Between them, the Dungeoneers should be able to pick and choose match-ups and put together a good season, though the Kelvin Benjamin injury reduces Newton’s maximum output. The Miami moves suggest that that Tannehill should be airing the ball out a bit more. That could mean more INTs but it also could bump both yards and TDs significantly.

The defence looks solid, if unspectacular, and with good management through the season could well rank in the top half.

Verdict:

2015 is a rebuilding year and some basic blocks are in place. Conaghan will be looking to see signs of development, particularly in his receiving corps, while also hoping to get to grips with selection and moving up to a league average selection efficiency. Success looks like a degree of competence, something which was a little lacking in 2014.

Prediction:

4-9 and first pick. Yes, this would look like a step back from 2014, but given the youth that’s been brought in to develop, this is no bad thing. Securing the first overall pick is a victory in and of itself and if aging players can be sold for further picks, this could lay the groundwork for a decent team in a couple of years time.

*Apollonean Win Expectation is similar to Pythagorean Win Expectation, except it’s kind of a bullshit made up version. The methodology is explained in this article, although I am coining the name Apollonean win expectation in this very piece here.

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