IMPOSTER – 2016 Chatterbowl Preview

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Dyna Hard GM Chris Braithwaite is here to provide a preview of the 2016 Chatterbowl on the day after the draft:

All position groups were ranked out of 16 and scored accordingly. The scores for running backs and wide receivers were doubled due to the size of those groups.

Running Outta Shrimp

QB – 10/16 – Brees is generally reliable (6th last year, projected 5th this year), but he’s at the age when a QB starts to decline, and as Manning showed last year, when a QB declines, he really falls off. Therefore I’ve dinged a mark for the lack of a backup plan, even if it may never be used.

RB – 32/32 – This is the first team I’ve looked at, but I suspect it may be the best RB stable in the league. There are risks (Elliot may take time to get the pro game, Martin may not try as hard now he has a big contract, Stewart might get hurt, Jones might lose his starting job, Ajayi probably won’t be a starter unless Foster goes down), but there’s also a chance there might be 5 worthy starters in any given week.

WR – 2/32 – As the RB is strong, WR is weak. Tate has the potential to be a #1 WR, but its likely that at best he is WR1.5 alongside Marvin Jones. White has draft pedigree, but he’s lost a year to injury, has looked bad in preseason and, frankly (in my opinion), wasn’t a great prospect from a production standpoint anyway. Charles Johnson has looked good in preseason, but he did last year too and caught about 4 passes.

TE – 6/16 – Tough call. If Graham is back to 80% of his best, he’s an every week starter at TE. If he’s where he was last season… well, to be honest, he’s still probably an every week starter in a 16 team league. Just not a great one.

K/D – 15/16 – The Seahawks have the potential to start every week and the Patriots produce pretty well when they have easy matchups. Catanzaro is a dreadful kicker (5 missed XPs last year) but he’s on a good offense so should get at least average (if not higher) points just from the opportunities.

Overall – 65/112 (5th) – This is a good team, but somewhat brittle. If we were back in the days of the 2RB league, they’d be a point higher, but needing 2 of those 3 WRs to produce each week is a risk. Trading an RB for a decent WR would be a good move.

Shire City Barons

QB – 16/16 – Cam is about as reliable as a QB can be. He’s shown durability and he runs well. He’s unlikely to be outside the top 4 QBs this year.

RB – 10/32 – Sneakily not bad. The talent level is probably better than the likely production though. Hyde has potential (especially in Chip’s RB friendly offense) to be a top 5 back, but he’s not always been healthily and has a concussion at the mo. A handcuff might be worthwhile here. Yeldon looks like he could be very good, but will be splitting carries with Chris Ivory, which probably caps his output at about 800 yards. Despite Freeman’s season last year, Coleman still has a good chance for a decent volume in Atlanta, but like Yeldon his situation probably limits him to about 800 yards. Vereen has a similar limit, but more due to his skill set than his situation. If one of Yeldon or Coleman breaks out and Hyde stays healthy, this is a good group. In all likelihood, it’ll be kinda average.

WR – 2/32 – Nothing really needs saying about OBJ. Lockett has a hell of a lot of upside, but there aren’t a great deal of targets to go around in Seattle if the running game is working, so he may underperform a little. Or he may break out as the most physically talented receiver in that offense. Snead is fairly mediocre but the high volume offense gives him an outside shot at around 1,000 yards. Fuller seems to have been doing well in preseason, but he’s likely to be a boom or bust option most weeks, which makes him a tough play in fantasy. Boyd seems like he might be quite a reliable producer (but with a lower ceiling). Kearse is Lockett insurance. There’s good talent here, but only one reliable producer, which means one of the three rookies or sophomores will need to produce.

TE – 10/16 – Ertz is a perfectly fine tight end, but he’s unlikely to threaten to step up into the Gronk sort of region.

K/D – 7/16 – Prater has been fairly unreliable in his career, as has the Detroit offence. He could be fine,  but a week-to-week streaming tactic seems likely here, which can be tricky in a 16-teamer. The Jets D is good, potentially very good. They have a division with some tough offenses though, so a backup might be necessary.

Overall – 55/112 (11th) – There’s good talent here, but a lot of it is handicapped by situation or experience. Newton and OBJ should guarantee at least a middle of the pack finish, but at least one RB and one WR will need to breakout for there to be much of a shot at the title.

The Factory of Sadness

QB – 1/16 – Griffin is an interesting gamble. If he starts running again, even if he’s average in reality he should be a good in fantasy. Tannehill is a fairly reliable backup if Griffin flames out, but neither of them is likely to be a top 8 guy.

RB – 2/32 – Duke Johnson is a good player, but he’s unlikely to be a major fantasy factor in a non-PPR league (this is non-PPR, right?). The rest of the RBs (Derrick Henry, Bilal Powell, DeAndre Washington) could all be good, but require an injury to the starter first. Henry might at least be a TD vulture. If he’s not, I suspect this team is starting 1 RB and 4 WRs each week.

WR – 28/32 – Evans is good and will likely improve on his terrible TD output from last season. Baldwin isn’t quite as good and will likely regress from his amazing TD output from last season. Between them, that should even out to about similar to last year’s production. Floyd is in a contract year in a good offense. He might be the most reliable WR in that group too. Diggs has been getting great reviews during camp and seems to be the clear #1 in Minnesota. But #1 in a Shaun Hill run offense isn’t doing much.  Treadwell is good insurance against a Diggs injury, but again, he’s not going to do much in a Hill-run offence.

TE – 16/16 – Gronk.

K/D – 6/16 – Boswell is similar to Catanzaro, in that its not clear if he’s any good, but he’s in a great situation for volume in the Pittsburgh offense. Unless they go for two regularly (I believe they led the league in this last season). The Titans D? That’s a streaming strategy if every I saw one.

Overall – 53/132 (13th) – Good WR and TE situations, but the QB and RB are likely to drag them down.

Brett Favre’s Junk Calls

QB – 6/16 – Everything I said about Drew Brees applies to Carson Palmer, except he has a lower ceiling. If he doesn’t get old or hurt, he’ll be fine. If he does, it’s an ugly situation.

RB – 26/32 – It’s a thin group, but a damn good one. Both Miller and Murray could easily rank in the top 5 RBs this year. Neither has a great injury history, but if both can be healthy its a great pairing. If only one does, it’s still better than some other teams. CJ Prosise is unlikely to be a factor though. I’d rather have a handcuff for either of the top guys.

WR – 26/32 – Dez, if healthy, should be good for a least 1,000 yards, even with Dak under centre. He might well blow up once Romo returns too, which would be good for the likely playoff challenge this team will be mounting. Edelman is very reliable, but might be slow out of the gates while Brady is suspended. Parker was very good at the end of last season, but seems to have slipped to number 3 on the depth chart and has his coach criticising him. As a third WR though, he’s pretty good. Matthews should be a fairly reliable guy, although his ceiling is quite low. He should be good for 5-8 points a week though, which isn’t bad as a backup. Coleman is a wildcard who could be great and could be terrible this year. Lack of competition seems to dictate that he’ll get decent volume. Ginn is likely to be relegated to number 3 this year and isn’t likely to be much of a factor.

TE – 11/16 – Bennett should be a good play most weeks, but he’ll probably be shut out occasionally. Cook has been very good in preseason, but he’s done that many times before. He’s very unreliable, so with the return of Nelson and Cobb being healthy again, he’s likely to be a distant third option at best. A lot of upside though.

K/D – 12/16 – Cairo Santos should be perfectly acceptable. The Panthers D is probably one of the best in the league. Both positions can probably be happily ignored outside of byes.

Overall – 81/132 (1st) – This is a very good team. QB and RB are fragile groups, but if they can stay reasonably healthy this should be a strong contender.

Woah Woah Woah Fitzmagic

QB – 12/16 – Rodgers is an elite option, but doesn’t have quite the upside of the likes of Newton or Wilson. Fitz is a perfectly adequate backup, but not really worth a roster spot unless Rodgers has a very early bye.

RB – 8/32 – McCoy is very good but possibly declining, Jennings is very average but in a decent situation at least for this year. Kenneth Dixon will be a non-factor early on and its a crowded backfield anyway. I feel this group is fairly reliable, but lacks much chance of outperforming expectations.

WR – 4/32 – One of the weaker groups in the league. Decker is probably a good second WR, Fitzgerald is probably a good third WR, but there’s definitely a lack of top WR here. I can tell you that from a year or two of watching him, Kenny Britt is a big sack of crap. Even with little competition, he’s not going to do much.

TE – 7/16 – I guess that you have two likely every week starters, which is good. However, it seems that the plan is to play one as the FLEX starter, which is not good. Witten could hit that old man wall any day now (and is likely in a much lower volume passing attack for the first half of the year).  Fleener has the physical skills, but hasn’t been getting great reviews in training camp. Both could be good. Both could be perfectly mediocre TEs (and bad FLEX options).

K/D – 16/16 – Crosby is a good kicker on an excellent yet conservative offense. Denver’s D is brilliant. Two reliable options who will likely be around the top 5 in the season. Josh Brown should be cut by this team, and by the Giants. For fantasy purposes, he’s not great and there’s no need for a backup kicker to Crosby (again, unless there’s an early GB bye I guess).

Overall – 47/132 (15th) – I’m not a fan of this team. Rodgers is good, but the RBs and WRs are fairly poor, the TEs aren’t great. When the best groups on your team are QB, D and kicker, in reality you’ve got a good team. In fantasy you don’t.

McLovin It

QB – 4/16 – You like that? Not massively. Cousins is a big risk, as he really only has half a season of good performance. Smith is a fairly adequate backup, but if Cousins doesn’t produce, you’re not going to want Smith starting every week.

RB – 16/32 – Freeman did well last season as a receiver, but I’m still far from convinced. Ivory should be good, but the likely splitting of work with Yeldon does limit him a bit. He’ll probably get the goalline work though, which is good. Sproles tends to be good for about 4-6 points a week, which makes him a nice reliable fill in. Morris has little upside outside of a Elliot injury or the Cowboys running an Exotic Smashmouth West offense.

WR – 14/32 – Not an inspiring group, but a pretty reliable one. Marshall and Maclin should fairly easily be top 30 WRs, and Jackson could easily perform to that level too. Aiken produced well last season, but it remains to be seen whether that was a function of there being no one else to pass the ball to in Baltimore.

TE – 13/16 – Greg Olsen is a generally excellent and reliable TE. He’ll finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th without ever having a great week or a bad week. ASJ feels more like trade bait to me. Let him have a decent week 1 and trade him to a TE needy team for another WR.

K/D – 13/16 – Gostkowski is the number 1 kicker. The Chiefs D is good, but is likely to be without its best player all season, which I think will limit its potential a bit. They should still be a perfectly fine every week start.

Overall – 60/112 (7th) – This team feels like more than the sum of its parts. There are bits and pieces that I’m not a great fan of (Cousins particularly), but this feels like a pretty strong and reliable team. It’s unlikely to blow the league away as there is no one who is going to wildly outperform expectations (beyond Morris in the event of Elliot getting hurt on the season’s first snap), but it’s likely to be there or thereabouts by the end.

Dan Sayles’ Bounty Program

QB – 9/16 – Neither Manning or Carr are likely to be elite players, but between them they make a pretty strong platoon. At least one should be close to top 10 points most weeks. Picking the right one will be the challenge.

RB – 14/32 – Lacy looks primed for a bounceback season after spending last season at the buffet line. Gordon looks like he has a chance to breakout too. Of course, both could flame out quite easily. Isaiah Crowell could end up being the main back in Cleveland, but that’s only because I could also end up being the main back in Cleveland. Jordan Howard looks like he’s 4th string at the moment and can probably be relegated to a watch list to pick up again once he starts climbing the depth chart.

WR – 20/32 – Watkins and Brown both have a chance to be top 20 WRs, if not higher. Watkins will need to dominate the Bills’ targets in that low volume offense, Brown will need to emerge as at least a 1b target in that high volume offense. If the Rams continue to be creative in forcing Tavon Austin the ball (and have a QB who can get the ball to him when he gets open deep), he could also force his way into the top 20. Tajae Sharpe has been getting rave reviews in preseason and might well end up being the second most-targeted Titan (behind Delanie Walker). If it all breaks right, that would leave a WR corp with 4 strong starters and Dorial Green-Beckham sitting on the bench watching.

TE – 9/16 – Gates should still be perfectly fine for another year, especially in a 16 team league

K/D – 5/16 – McManus is a good kicker in a good environment, but the offense isn’t likely to be much better than last year. He’s trusted to be allowed to attempt long field goals, so might be as boom and bust as a kicker can be (not very). The Steelers D is not good, but the quality of the offense should force opponents into taking risks and there are enough playmakers there to force some big plays. Streaming seems like the best bet here.

Overall – 57/112 (9th) – Each position group here has a hell of a lot of potential. However, QB is probably the only one which will reliably meet it. If everything breaks right and the RB and WR groups play to their potential this team could run away with the league. If it doesn’t, the league could run away from them.

Ballad of Ju-Halo Jones

QB – 15/16 – Russell Wilson is probably second only to Cam in fantasy QBs. If the running game doesn’t recover from the loss of Lynch, his increase in volume could make him the #1 QB. Even if it doesn’t, he’s very likely to be top 5.

RB – 6/32 – CJ Anderson should be pretty good, and if he isn’t it’ll be because Booker has taken his job. That’s one starting RB right there. Williams should be good for the first three weeks then fairly useless. White should be good for the first 6-8 weeks, then fairly useless. Chris Johnson seems like he’d have more value by being traded to the David Johnson owner. This group could easily get off to a fast start, but I can’t imagine them being great by the end of the season.

WR – 8/32 – Julio is obviously excellent. Sterling Shepard looks to be, at worst, the #3 target in a good offense. Jackson looks likely to a fairly reliable #2 and Stills could also nail down a #2 role. Even if Sammy Coates does nothing, this should be a fairly good group, but its unlikely to be outstanding.

TE – 12/16 – Delanie has become a pretty reliable TE. He should be fine every week.

K/D – 10/16 – The Bengals offense should be good enough, Nugent is good enough. He’ll probably be around #12 for the season. The Rams D is good, but fairly inconsistent. They should reliably get sack numbers, but losing Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod might mean the INTs take a hit.

Overall – 51/112 (14th) – There are good bits and bad bits, and I think they end up coming to around average.

Large Hadron Colliders

QB – 3/16 – Stafford was great at the end of last season, but has been bad in preseason. He feels like the kinda guy who needs to be paired with another reasonable starter, rather than being expected to produce every week.

RB – 22/32 – Forte is a solid every week starter. Sims should continue to chip in with a decent enough amount of receiving yards to be fine as the final FLEX starter. Mathews should be a perfectly average starting RB and could easily end up being a reliable every week starter. Smallwood probably isn’t worth the roster spot as a handcuff though. McKinnon is a decent lottery ticket to have if Peterson goes down.

WR – 30/32 – Robinson, Jeffrey and Landry can all easily be started every week. The only thing stopping this group being a 10 is total lack of depth. Pryor is unlikely to be much of a factor.

TE – 15/16 – Thomas and Clay should both be somewhere between 10th and 20th at TE this season. Thomas is more likely to be a reliable every week starter, but this group should be able to muddle through even if they only produce at the same level as last year.

K/D –11/16 – Gould and the Jags D are perfectly average options.

Overall – 66/112 (=3rd) – This team should be around the playoff picture, but feel unlikely to one of the top teams in the league.

Legion of Gloom

QB – 5/16 – I’m quite bullish on Tyrod Taylor and running QBs generally, so I think he’ll be an above average every week starter. However, he’s still a fairly big risk. Dak could be equally good, but the odds are that you won’t want to play him for the first few weeks until you know what he can deliver, and then by the time we get near the playoffs he’ll be back on the bench after Romo returns.

RB – 18/32 – Peterson is very good and should get a ridiculous amount of work this year with Bridgeeater down. He’s fine to start every week. The other two guys drag the group down, because I’m not sure either can be relied on to be in the FLEX role in any given week. If Rawls goes down Michael should be worth a start. Blount is unlikely to be a safe option to rely on in any week.

WR – 10/32 – Cooper should be a pretty reliable starter. I’m not a massive fan of the rest of the group, but they all have a chance to be equally reliable starters. Moncrief hasn’t produced much thus far, Dorsett has produced even less, and Agholor is somewhere in between. None are proven starters that you want to rely on yet (although all could become that). Sanders has been a proven starter, but its tough to project his likely production with Siemian at QB. I suspect he’s going to finish as this lot’s second best WR though. It should be possible to get a good group, but I think, when you also factor in Blount’s TD dependency, there may be a lot of PLOBing.

TE – 15/16 – Kelce is excellent and Rudolph is a reliable backup option with some upside. This is about as good a group as you can have without having Gronk.

K/D – 11/16 – Both Bailey and the Vikings D are good players in fairly bad situations. The Vikings D should do ok on points allowed simply because all the running on offense is going to keep scores down. But offenses probably won’t want to take too many risks against them, which might hurt their chances at big plays. Bailey is a good kicker who is likely to spend the first half of the year struggling for opportunity.

Overall – 59/112 (8th) – I like most of the team, but the WR2 and FLEX situation make it difficult to project success. There are 5 guys who need to produce to cover those 3 positions, and I’m not convinced that’s likely.

Sou’Westkuntry Pasty Pounders

QB – 14/16 – Rivers and Brady seems like a brilliant pairing. After week 4, they’ll be able to platoon the two against the best matchup.

RB – 4/32 – Ingram has been good the last couple of years, but I still don’t trust him all that much. He should be fine though. Woodhead and Riddick would be great options if this was PPR, but outside that they are only borderline FLEX options at best. Starks has very little value unless Lacy goes down.

WR – 22/32 – Brown will be top 10, Hilton should be top 20 and Crabtree should be top 30. That’s a very good trio. Unfortunately they are knocked down a bit by that being it. Cutting Bruce Ellington and grabbing any other WR is a must.

TE – 1/16 – Walford could be good, but I wouldn’t want to be relying on him as my only option right out of the gate.

K/D – 4/16 – Both Gano and Walsh are very good options. Walsh is a better player, Gano is in a better situation (depending on how much Carolina goes for two). Having two kickers is kind of a waste though and I think they’d be better cutting or trading one for extra WR or TE help though. The Colts D is pretty much bang average. Streaming beckons.

Overall – 45/112 (16th) – The WR trio and the QB duo might carry this team to respectability, but I don’t there’s enough here to carry them any further than that.

Hundley Like The Wolf

QB – 8/16 – Bortles is a good option. Even if he regresses a bit from last year, he should be a nice solid starter.

RB – 24/32 – I actually really like this group. Its looking like Langford is going to get a shot at an every down role in Chicago and Foster looks like the lead back in Miami. Either one of those should be a reasonable FLEX play for most of the season. Once Bell comes back from suspension, that should be a really strong group.

WR – 24/32 – Again, this is a strong group. Cooks and Benjamin should be perfectly reliable for every week of the season. Wheaton has a good role, although may be lacking in talent. He did have an excellent second half of last season. It seems likely that one of the young trio of Doctson, Thomas and Crowder should be able to emerge as at least a half-decent option if Wheaton isn’t up to it.

TE – 2/16 – Jordan Cameron has been dreadful in Miami and is barely worth a roster spot at the moment. Ebron has yet to live up to his draft status, but there are lots of targets to go around in Detroit now that Calvin Johnson is gone. He should be able to be at least a top 12 TE, which would just about justify starting him every week.

K/D – 8/16 – I’m not sure if the Texans D is actually going to be that good, but they will probably make a lot of big plays which should make them a perfectly serviceable option every week. Matt Bryant is a below average kicker but if Atlanta’s offense plays the whole season like it did the first few weeks of last season, he’s in a very good situation. If not, streaming will have to do.

Overall – 66/112 (=3rd) – There’s a strong core of QB, RB and WR here. If one or two of the younger players can fulfil their potential, this could be a really good team. I suspect its more likely that they end up getting knocked out in the playoffs.

Spunky Beans

QB – 2/16 – Going with just Winston is bold. My feeling on him is similar to Cousins – he’s shown he can be good for a period, but I’m not convinced he can be worth an every week start just yet. He seems like an ideal candidate for platooning with another veteran, rather than relying on him every week.

RB – 30/32 – This is an outstanding trio. Like Adrian Peterson, Gurley is going to get a tonne of work this season. At his very worst, Jamaal Charles will be a much better version of Darren Sproles. At his best, he’s a second feature back. Frank Gore should be perfectly reliable, but he is very old as RBs go, so he may fall off a cliff this year. No sign of that happening yet.

WR – 6/32– There are far more questions at WR. Both Matthews and Smith have talent, but its unclear how much production they will actually have. Matthews’ floor is probably as a mediocre FLEX play. Smith’s floor is absolutely zero. Travis Benjamin and Mike Wallace have similar profiles to Smith, although with a bit less upside. Sanu could be a fairly reliable FLEX play, although he has historically been quite TD dependent. Boldin is a big question mark. I can’t imagine him doing too much this year, but then I’ve thought that for about the past 4 years.

TE – 14/16 – Jordan Reed is an elite TE with some questions about his ability to stay healthy. Dwayne Allen is a good TE with some questions about his ability to stay healthy. If one went down, the other should be fine to play every week. There’s even potential to play both if Allen can rediscover his early career form.

K/D – 2/16 – The rarely seen Buffalo Buffalo. Carpenter is a fine kicker on a fine offense. He should be perfectly acceptable in a 16 team league, although not a whole deal better than streaming. The Bills D is a big unknown. If it plays to its potential, its elite. If it plays to last year, its crap.

Andover Anteaters

QB – 13/16 – Luck is worth a 9/10 on his own. Ryan isn’t in his league, but if he can rediscover his past form, this could be an elite pair to play the matchups. Or just plug Luck in most weeks.

RB – 12/32 – Hill should be ok to start every week, although its likely that Gio Bernard will outscore him. Ware looks likely to get, at minimum, the goalline work in KC along with 5-10 carries a week, so he could be a viable flex play, especially if KC has a decent matchup. West might end up being the Ravens leading back, but he might also end up getting 0 carries. Regardless, Hill and West are a strong pair.

WR – 32/32 – This is a strong group. Green and Allen are clear #1 WRs. Jones has a chance at being similar, and should threaten 1,000 yards anyway. Funchess has been getting excellent reviews in the offseason and should have more production in his second year with an actual other WR on the field with him. Gordon could end up doing nothing, but if he hits the field and doesn’t get suspended again, he also has the potential to be a #1 calibre WR. They might not be able to get everyone on the field, but there may be trade potential here too.

TE – 3/16 – A fairly uninspiring group. Both Miller and Green are perfectly average players who are clear starting TEs, but I’m not sure how much upside there is. I feel that this will be a very TD dependent group, with lots of PLOBing.

K/D – 14/16 – Tucker is excellent and should get more opportunities with Flacco healthy again. It’s still not a great offense though. The Cardinals D is just a monster, but they’ve got a fairly tough schedule which might limit them slightly.

Overall – 74/112 (2nd) – A very strong team. The only weakness is TE and RB depth and frankly, if you’re going to have a weakness that’s a good one to have.

Coach Taylor’s Khakis

QB – 11/16 – Roethlisberger is a solid top-10 option apart from the game or two he misses due to injury. Mariota should be fine to fill in for that game. If he develops his running, this could be a great pairing.

RB – 20/32 – Rawls showed a lot of ability last year, but might end up in a job share if he doesn’t show that he can stay healthy. He has a lot of upside, but a lot of risk too. Murray should be one of the most used RBs, but he’s pretty average. Still, that’s a good enough combination to be a solid FLEX play. Abdullah flashed some good skills last year, but I’m not sure what role he has on the offense. Riddick has shown he is an excellent receiver and Abdullah doesn’t really profile as a high volume runner. He might end up just doing a lot of not very much. Javorius Allen looks like Baltimore’s 3rd RB and probably doesn’t have much value.

WR – 16/32 – Hopkins is elite and will see a tonne of targets. Nelson should also see a lot of work, but he’s quite old and coming off an injury, so there’s a bit of risk there. Still, both should be solidly top 30. Steve Smith is similar to Nelson but with far less upside. Chris Hogan is a good pickup, especially with Amendola not being healthy, and should be a borderline flex play. Strong is probably Houston’s 4th WR, so doesn’t have much value.

TE – 4/16 – Eifert is very good, but he’s going to miss the first 2/3 games at best and hasn’t showed the ability to stay healthy after that. The total lack of backup is alarming.

K/D – 9/16 – The Raiders D should be perfectly fine and the offenses in the division are fairly poor, which helps. Vinatieri’s range seems to decrease by the minute, but he should be fairly reliable.

Overall – 63/112 (6th) – This looks like another team that should make the playoffs but may struggle to produce once it gets there.

Kuhn on the Cobb

QB – 7/16 – Dalton has a fairly well established floor of being a perfectly acceptable QB and should be fine to start every week. Osweiler doesn’t strike me as a particularly appealing platoon buddy though.

RB – 28/32 – Johnson should be a feature back, Gio Bernard should get a good amount of work between rushing and receiving and Justin Forsett looks like he’s going to be the starter in Baltimore. That should translate to at least one good starter and one good FLEX every week. Kenyan Drake looks like he’s worthless this year. Reggie Bush has more value in a PPR and return yards league, but he might ok, especially if McCoy goes down.

WR – 16/32 – Thomas is a risk with a new QB, but he should be able to struggle his way to around 1,000 yards regardless. Cobb should see fewer targets but be more productive this year. Hurns will probably fall off a bit from last year, but he should still be a pretty strong FLEX play most weeks. Garcon is aging very quickly and might lose targets to Doctson and Crowder as the season goes on, but should still be borderline playable most weeks.

TE – 4/16 – Barnidge was excellent last season, but its really hard to see him repeating that with an improved WR corps. If he falls back to anywhere near his career average production (i.e. nothing) tight end will be a big black hole.

K/D – 1/16 – Aguayo should be absolutely fine. The Packers are fairly average. Streaming for both is probably the plan.

Overall – 56/112 (10th) – Great RBs, but the rest of the team is pretty much average or worse. If Barnidge recaptures last year’s form they could outperform this though.

 

Commish Addition

I tabled up the figures in the above piece. Some of the maths was a bit dodgy. This is the actual ranking…

Rank Team QB RB WR TE K/D Overall
=1 Brett Favre’s Junk Calls 6 26 26 11 12 81
=1 Large Hadron Colliders 3 22 30 15 11 81
3 Andover Anteaters 13 12 32 3 14 74
4 Hundley Like The Wolf 8 24 24 2 8 66
5 Running Outta Shrimp 10 32 2 6 15 65
=6 Coach Taylor’s Khakis 11 20 16 4 9 60
=6 McLovin It 4 16 14 13 13 60
8 Legion of Gloom 5 18 10 15 11 59
9 Dan Sayles’ Bounty Program 9 14 20 9 5 57
10 Kuhn on the Cobb 7 28 16 4 1 56
11 Spunky Beans 2 30 6 14 2 54
12 The Factory of Sadness 1 2 28 16 6 53
13 Ballad of Ju-Halo Jones 15 6 8 12 10 51
14 Woah Woah Woah Fitzmagic 12 8 4 7 16 47
=15 Shire City Barons 16 10 2 10 7 45
=15 Sou’Westkuntry Pasty Pounders 14 4 22 1 4 45

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Pre-Season Peter Preview

Max Stat Blats Previews No Comments

It’s nearly time for the new season of football and so it’s time to let the Stat Blats get all up in yo’ bidness and make you feel tingly.  Below is a combination 2015 season review and 2016 season preview for each team in Peter.  Want to know where the Sadness’ QBs ranked last season?  This is your place.  Want to know my opinion on whether the Breeses have improved their woeful linebacker corps?  Come on in friend!

Tamworth Two

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

106.3 points per game (ppg), 5th best in league

QB 18.52 ppg, 6th
RB 32.21 ppg, 4th
WR/TE 43.22 ppg, 8th
SPEC 12.35 ppg, 9th

Looking at the stats it’s clear that sub-par offensive performance was the thing that kept T2 from challenging more closely in the Owl.  When you pay Aaron Rodgers the big bucks you expect better than run-of-the-mill QB numbers but that’s what he put up last season.  There were mitigating factors though and, despite the fact he’s on another roster, they must have their fingers crossed hoping Jordy Nelson will be back in form this season.

RB was the Hogs’ strongest position last season riding the unexpected highs of Chris Ivory and Darren McFadden.  Run DMC is down the Cowboys depth chart now though and Chris Ivory is gone, leaving T2 looking sparse.  Jonathan Stewart is still pootling along and they have the Buffalo backfield sewn up tight but Duke Johnson is not someone I would want to be relying on for my third RB position.

Injuries to Alshon Jeffery and DeVante Parker hit Tamworth hard at WR last season and their 8th placed finish will be some way off what they’d have been hoping for at season start.  The bad news is that I don’t see where it’s improved.  Jarvis Landry, their WR1, is gone, DeVante Parker is, by all accounts, running hot and cold in camp and Demayrius Thomas will be catching balls from the Sanchize.  At TE there is hope for Eric Ebron and Virgil Green but neither are a sure thing for regular production.

Trending down

DEFENCE

82.23 ppg, 3rd best in league

DL 33.02 ppg, 1st
LB 25.83 ppg, 6th
DB 23.38 ppg, 7th

So if your offence isn’t great then how do you get to the final of the Owl?  Great defence.  Defence wins Owls.  The Hogs’ had a dominant line led by Kawann Short and Gerald McCoy, two of the best fantasy DTs in the business.  They’ve lost their best DE, Chandler Jones, to a position switch though and will be relying on the promising Stephon Tuitt and rookie Chris Jones to pick up the slack, a big ask.

The Hogs’ LB corps was a sea of pregnant potential and mediocrity, lifted by the transcendent talents of Luke Kuechly and the hard graft of Paul Posluszny.  The Pos has jumped ship for the coming season but the unexpectedly solid Whitney Mercilus should still produce and Jeremiah Attaouchu is poised to break it big.  Add to that the fact that the D-Line’s loss is the ‘Backer corps’ gain when it comes to Chandler Jones and things should keep ticking along nicely.

The Hogs were let down in the secondary by a poor showing from their safeties.  Kam Chancellor being motivated for a whole season may help but David Amerson will lose snaps at CB to Sean Smith in Oakland so there is a question mark about his ability to repeat last season’s good showing.

Steady

OVERALL

188.52 ppg, 4th best in league

The Hogs should see performance drop from last season.  The defence will still be there or thereabouts but the offence has taken a hit in the loss of Landry and Ivory.  If Aaron Rodgers can play like he’s paid he may make up for it.

Prediction: 6-7, 3rd in Peter

East Flanders Dungeoneers

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

104.17 ppg, 6th best in league

QB 20.97 ppg, 2nd
RB 26.22 ppg, 7th
WR/TE 44.24 ppg, 6th
SPEC 12.74 ppg, 8th

Being definitively the worst team on the Dbowl last season means it makes for slightly surprising reading to see that the Dungeoneers were middle of the pack in offensive terms.  Cam Newton’s rise to superstardom helped buoy the numbers no doubt, racking up the record highest weekly score for a QB in the process, and he should continue to raise his team for the coming season.

The RBs were a mess in East Flanders last year with Justin Forsett and Carlos Hyde both missing considerable time and forcing Pete Conaghan to rely on the likes of Ronnie Hillman and Darren Sproles.  Danny Woodhead was a consistently good performer though who at least made sure to keep Conaghan’s men from complete ignominy week on week.  The Dungeoneers have re-signed Rashad Jennings on a good deal and brought in T2 reject Chris Ivory to strengthen this season but will still rely on Woodhead for production.  A fit season from Carlos Hyde could make a huge difference however.

Amari Cooper, Brandon Marshall and Michael Floyd all put in good showings last season but a lack of depth behind those big names and a horror show at TE kept the Dungeoneers from putting up consistent good scores at receiver.  Things are looking much better this year.  Those three are all still in the fold and have been joined by a fully fit Kevin White and Keenan Allen plus rookie Josh Doctson.  The TEs are no better in terms of personnel but Coby Fleener escaping from Indianapolis to New Orleans hikes his ceiling way up.

Trending up

DEFENCE

63.80 ppg, 9th best in league

DL 15.64 ppg, 8th
LB 27.37 ppg, 5th
DB 20.79 ppg, 10th

If the Dungeoneers offence were surprisingly good for the worst team in the league then that can only mean one thing for the defence.  Look away now, Pete, it’s not pretty!  Tyrone Crawford was the star on the defensive line last year, turning in a top 10 performance.  There is absolutely no depth behind him however though if Sen’Derrick Marks can stay fit and work into the Jacksonville rotation significantly he offers some hope. Kony Ealy flashed his talent last season too and Conaghan will be hoping that the Panthers’ DE can step up to the next level this season.

When you’re only paying two of your LBs more than $3 and one of those two is Paul Worrilow your expectations for the unit are probably reduced.  Pete can be quite happy then with his middle-of-the-pack placing.  Astute signings of tackle machines Melvin Ingram and Malcolm Smith brought a good floor to the team and the likes of KJ Wright and Worrilow produced steady if uninspiring numbers.  The Dungeoneers’ prospects of improvement have been hindered by Shaq Lawson’s injury but the Justin-Houston-shaped hole in Kansas may open the door for Dee Ford and Vontaze Burfict’s suspension may put Paul Dawson in the mix.

What do you do when you have the worst secondary in the league and the top-scoring player in that secondary retires?  Nothing!  Apparently!  That’s not fair, Pete signed rookie safety Karl Joseph.  I’m sure he’ll be a good player down the line but expecting him to replicate Charles Woodson’s numbers in year one is probably asking a bit much.  The Dungeoneers are relying on the fickle nature of the secondary to provide a better result.

Steady

OVERALL

167.97 ppg, 10th best in league

I don’t think the Dungeoneers will finish the season as the worst team in the league again; the offence has the potential to put up top 3 numbers under the right circumstances.  Unfortunately, the defence is still a hot mess and will drag the team down.

Prediction: 5-8, 4th in Peter

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

102.06 ppg, 8th best in league

QB 14.98 ppg, 10th
RB 19.74 ppg, 10th
WR/TE 54.46 ppg, 2nd
SPEC 12.88 ppg, 6th

Well, if you’re not sure what an unbalanced offence looks like then there you go.  The problems at the QB position for the Sadness were largely self-inflicted as Mangboob’s love for Teddy Tinyhands prevented him from just starting Drew Brees in every game he was available for.  Brees averaged 20.28 points per game, a full 5 more than the Sadness did.  Even if you add in the fact that Teddy averaged 11.5 points in the two weeks Brees missed that is a clear case of overthinking it.  Mangboob should not make the same mistake this year.

Unfortunately, the Sadness’ struggles at RB cannot be blamed on GM tinkering.  It turns out that owning the entire Lions’ backfield is not conducive to fantasy success.  Eddy Lacy’s plummet off a cliff accounts for some of the underperformance here and Mangboob has lost patience with the player, shipping him out to the Firebirds.  He has been replaced by number 1 draft pick Ezekiel Elliott, one of the most hyped fantasy rookie prospects of all time.  Zeke and fellow rookie Kenneth Dixon add some spark to the position and Abdullah and Matt Jones could improve in their second years.  This is a young unit on a young team and should get better year-on-year.

In contrast, the Sadness’ receivers were stellar.  Led by superstar OBJ, even a down season for Dez Bryant couldn’t stop them marching to 2nd place on the receiver rankings.  Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Golden Tate and, surprisingly, Ted Ginn Jr turned in performance after performance over the season to keep scores high.  This season it’s all change with Dez, Tate and Decker gone but Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell, Michael Thomas and DeSean Jackson come in.  Mangboob is building for the future and while I would expect to see this unit decline this season they look strong for the future and improvement elsewhere should more than make up for it.

Steady

DEFENCE

77.18 ppg, 6th best in league

DL 14.66 ppg, 10th
LB 33.62 ppg, 3rd
DB 28.90 ppg, 5th

The defensive line is the real Achilles heel for a defence that is otherwise strong.  Mangboob has three players there and they are all nearly men.  Michael Brockers is a very good player but with the strength on that Rams’ line his play doesn’t equate to fantasy points.  Linval Joseph and Sharif Floyd are both similarly good players but Tom Johnson’s pass rush exploits on the interior limit their upside.  All are young and Joseph missed a few games with injury so Mangboob can hope for an improvement.  He’ll have to, because he has brought in no extra help for his tackles.  The viewing is even more bleak at Defensive End where no player scored over 80 points.  Sheldon Richardson is a talented idiot but the others are just not elite players.  The drafting of Robert Nkemdiche may help but he enters a crowded situation in Arizona and we will likely not see him emerge until at least 2017.

The linebackers at the Sadness, by contrast, are elite and dominant.  Lavonte David, Telvin Smith and Bobby Wagner are all top level talents on the field and on your fantasy teams and are young enough to provide for a few years yet.  Behind them, Danny Trevathan, Mychal Kendricks and Bruce Irvin feel like players on the cusp of a fantasy boom and with Trevathan and Irvin in new teams this season this year could be the year.

The secondary is a similar situation to T2’s linebackers: an average group of players propelled upwards by one stellar talent.  Tyrann Mathieu scored twice as much as most other members of the Sadness’ secondary last season and the rest were much of a muchness.  Sean Smith comes in this year and Eric Berry is re-signed to a better contract but question marks of Tyrann Mathieu’s health mean that last season’s performance probably remains the ceiling for this bunch.

Steady

OVERALL

179.23 ppg, 6th best in league

I don’t think this season will see much change for the Sadness.  They have lost elite level talent at WR but added a lot of young players and have a deeper pool of players to pick from.  A lot is riding on Zeke Elliott’s shoulders as far as this season is concerned.  If Mangboob decides to start Teddy Bridgewater all season long then all bets are off.

Prediction: 5-8, 5th in Peter

Dynasore Losers

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

99.75 ppg, 10th best in league

QB 16.56 ppg, 8th
RB 28.83 ppg, 6th
WR/TE 39.87 ppg, 10th
SPEC 14.49 ppg, 2nd

Hoo boy, it’s difficult to know where to start with this one.  The Losers’ WRs were a horror show last year.  Jordy Nelson injured, Josh Gordon failing to get reinstated, Emmanuel Sanders feeling the bite of the Peter-collapse, Torrey Smith left hopping mad by Colin Kaepernick and Nelson Agholor leaving everyone wondering what Chip Kelly deemed worth the 20th overall pick about him.  Add to that a wasteland at TE and it’s easy to see how this unit came out bottom in points scoring per game.  That kind of luck should regress back towards the mean this year and almost every player at this position should be better in 2016.  The loss of Larry Fitzgerald is a blow to the weekly floor of the group but Jarvis Landry, the Losers’ big blockbuster summer trade, covers that and more.  The Losers are a candidate to go from worst to first at WR in 2016.

A shallow group at RB left a lot on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte and it was enough to struggle to mid-table in the RB rankings.  David Slater is relying heavily on rookies Jordan Howard and DeAndre Washington to provide depth for the coming season though.  Dion Lewis is already out, surgery required on his knee, and AP and Forte are getting no younger.  This situation could get very unpleasant, very fast.

If that happens, Slater may look to trade in some of his excess talent at QB.  The group performed poorly last season with Peter Manning’s decline the headline event but this season should be vastly improved.  Andy Dalton is healthy, Jameis Winston is no longer a rookie and Derek Carr is heading into his 3rd year heading an offence going from strength to strength.  Add to that the free agency addition of Carson Palmer and this is a strong group that should be able to comfortably mix and match each week for the best matchups.

Trending up

DEFENCE

75.93 ppg, 7th best in league

DL 23.33 ppg, 5th
LB 20.27 ppg, 9th
DB 32.34 ppg, 3rd

A much-reduced year from Ryan Kerrigan was still the highlight of the LBs at the Losers last year as he was the only player to top 100 points.  David Slater put a lot of work into fixing the offence but this was another place that the Losers were giving points away on a weekly basis.  The free-agency addition of Paul Posluszny, plus the drafting of three rookie LBs shows that Slater recognised this fact and has moved to address it.  The group is still raw and has a lot of question marks but is an improvement over last season, albeit only a small one for this year.

A middle of the pack defensive line remains largely unchanged.  Carlos Dunlap was re-signed to resume a powerful starting tandem at DE but if one goes down then much will depend on 2nd year rusher Danielle Hunter of the Vikings.  Hunter looked excellent in limited snaps in his rookie year and Slater will hope that he can maintain that form into more snaps.

The strongest unit on the Losers’ defence remains largely intact though whether Marcus Peters can perform at the same level in year 2 is questionable.  Some regression to the mean is to be expected (players are rarely consistently at the top of the CB rankings) but the brothers Johnson (Kevin and Trumaine) and Logan Ryan should be able to offer plentiful depth.  At safety Slater will grind his teeth as he hopes for Michael Mitchell of the Steelers to remain steady and clasp his hands in prayer that Tashaun Gipson can recapture his 2014 Cleveland form in Jacksonville.

Steady

OVERALL

175.69 ppg, 8th best in league

Unless the Losers are struck by catastrophic bad luck again this year they should perform better.  The QB and receiver units can hopefully carry the RBs on offence and an improvement from 9th to 7th or so in the LBs would be enough to see the defence able to support.  I expect an improved year but not an Owl year.

Prediction: 7-6, 1st in Peter

Here Comes The Brees

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

111.22 ppg, 3rd best in league

QB 20.20 ppg, 3rd
RB 38.24 ppg, 1st
WR/TE 39.98 ppg, 9th
SPEC 12.81 ppg, 7th

If I’d asked at the start of last season which Dbowl team had the best RBs in the league would you have said the Breeses?  Come on now, don’t lie.  Doug Martin’s renaissance, Devonta Freeman’s explosion and a combination of Lamar Miller and (really) Isaiah Crowell left the team top of the pile.  All four of those players are back this year with the added depth of Charles Sims, Darren Sproles and a healthy Tevin Coleman.  The Breeses are set up nicely to repeat in 2016 and perhaps even improve though a predicted decline for Freeman and Martin after their monster seasons could throw a spanner in the works.

It’s a good job Archer and Sayles’ RBs were such a surprise smash hit because the receivers were a disaster. Injuries for Steve Smith, Breshad Perriman and DeSean Jackson left the team scrambling to field a decent unit and there were too many weeks of Pierre Garcon and Terrance Williams for anything to be salvageable.  Tyler Eifert was a ray of hope at TE, particularly with Zach Ertz providing depth.  The Breeses have gone all out this summer to rectify what is their problem position on offence with a host of bodies run through camp.  The big arrival was Martavis Bryant, right at the tail end of last season, but a year-long suspension buried that.  The new big arrival was Allen Robinson who has, incredibly, yet to get suspended or go on injured reserve for the entire season.  Larry Fitzgerald and Jaelen Strong also arrived and even with the departure of DeSean Jackson the unit looks better.  Phillip Dorsett comes into his 2nd year with a path clear to a starting job, Travis Benjamin lands in a friendly spot in San Diego and JJ Nelson is pushing in Arizona.

Even with Andrew Luck’s injury, the Breeses managed to get good QB production, largely thanks to Tom Brady with occasional spells of Fitzmagic.  Luck is fit this season, Brady is back (albeit suspended for the first 4 games) and Alex Smith is ready to step in in an emergency.  This unit should be top end producer again.

Trending up

DEFENCE

60.20 ppg, 10th best in league

DL 19.02 ppg, 7th
LB 18.39 ppg, 10th
DB 22.79 ppg, 8th

Well, that is ugly reading.  There were very few bright spots for the Breeses on defence after they traded away Aaron Donald.  Fletcher Cox had a breakout season at DE but the Breeses got unlucky mixing and matching between him, Cameron Jordan and Michael Bennett and too often the big points were on the bench.  For the new season though Fletcher Cox has moved to DT, solving that problem.  The Breeses should not PLOB themselves out of his points any longer.  Not least because, at time of writing, they have no other DTs on the roster.  Jordan and Bennett are still in place at DE, backed up by Jaye Howard and new boy DeForest Buckner.  I think we should see this unit move into the top half in the league but if Cox goes down there is (literally) nothing to cover for him.

Sheesh, if you thought the DL reading was bad, take a look at this shower.  In week 10 last season, the Breeses started Karlos Dansby, Daryl Smith, Jelani Jenkins and Derrick Morgan.  Not a collection to inspire fear in the opposition.  I’m not convinced this unit looks any better going into 2016.  Dansby and Pernell McPhee are good starters but 2nd year guys Shaq Thompson and Jordan Hicks are going to have to step up if there is to be any improvement.  It’s still a fairly uninspiring bunch.

At DB the Breeses suffered a blow when they lost Harrison Smith for the year but they got a nice surprise in the performance of DROY Ronald Darby who put up a nice tally.  There’s little to see here beyond that.  Earl Thomas is an amazing real-life safety and an average fantasy one and the rest of the unit were all much of a muchness.  This season the CBs are the same but the Ss get a little influx with the drafting of Von Bell and the signing of Barry Church but the inexplicable decision to drop Harrison Smith (the #1 safety in 2014) means that I can’t say this unit has improved.

Steady

OVERALL

171.42 ppg, 9th best in league

It’s easy to see that the Breeses have improved on offence.  A lot of their guys are starting the season healthier, more experienced or in better situations than last year and strength has been added, particularly to the wide receivers.  I can still see them being hampered by a defence, however, which seems to take a step back for every step it takes forward.  It won’t be the worst in the league again, but it will be a long way from the best.

Prediction: 7-6, 2nd in Peter

DELO Ratings 2016

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Maybe you’re familiar with Elo ratings, but I’m going to assume you’re not. Arpad Elo was a Hungarian-born American physics professor who developed a ratings system, originally for chess but later applied to all sorts of sports, including American football, baseball and snooker. It’s now used frequently (in a variety of adapted versions) on fivethirtyeight.com to try to find the best team in history in various sports, amongst other things.

The idea is relatively simple, but the methodology is much more complicated. All competitors, be they individuals or teams, start with a ranking – often 1000 or 1500 – and each time they play they add on points or lose points, according to the result. That can just be a win/lose/draw based metric or it can get much more complex to try to account for home field advantage and scale of victory. If the team you beat is very good you score lots of points, if they’re not so good, fewer points. Likewise, lose a game and lose points based on the skill of the opposition – the better the opposition, the fewer points lost.

In order to try to compare eras, previous results from previous years/decades/whatever have to be removed in some manner so the rating only applies to the team of now and ensure they’re not getting false credit for performance too far in the past. Another adjustment 538 have mentioned they make is between seasons. In all sports, the team line-ups change one year to the next. In American sports, the system is set up to try to even the playing field, with the worst teams getting to draft players first. As this is supposed to be a return towards the middle, they adjust their rankings between seasons by reducing above average teams slightly and increasing below average teams slightly so that next season they all start a little closer together.

All this got me thinking, could we develop an Elo system for the Dynabowl? A DELO system, if you will. So I gave it a shot. I’m going to outline my methodology, share my results, and the provide a means to download my source spreadsheet so you (YES, YOU!) can see if you can improve on it.

The first problem I encountered was that Elo is specifically designed for situations where two teams are playing each other with the result changing a teams ranking. While that does occur in fantasy football, the teams aren’t directly influencing each other’s performance. If the top scoring team one week played the second top scoring team, it would be harsh to penalise the second team DELO points when they would have won any other game.

What i decided to do was look at a teams scored in comparison to the weekly average score achieved. If you beat the weekly average your rating goes up. If you drop below the weekly average your rating goes down. I also (pretty much arbitrarily) decided to exclude the top and bottom scores each week from the average. This was a gut based decision where I felt one or other of the numbers being an outlier could sway the overall average too much in one direction or the other so I felt it better to take the middle 8 scores and average them. This may be the wrong approach – I didn’t check it against an average of all 10 – but it’s the one I decided to take and I think I made a working system in the end. You may decide otherwise.

The next step to decide was how to calculate the points. I decided, again arbitrarily, to start every team with 1000 points. It felt like a high enough total that I could get some big enough variation, and it felt in keeping with the Elo rankings I’d seen produced elsewhere.

So how many points should get added on or taken away? The obvious answer is however many points above or below average the team scored that week. However, I needed to reflect the way Elo works. As I said, with Elo you get more credit for beating a good team than a bad team and so on. Here I thought that if a team has a lower DELO rating than average and scores well it should get ‘extra credit’, while a poor team scoring poorly shouldn’t be penalised as much as a good team performing badly.

This led me to produce a weighting spread. I said that if a team has a DELO between 950 and 1050 whatever their points difference from average gets added or subtracted at a rate of 100% (i.e. if you were 10 points above average you would get 10 points x 100% added to your DELO. If you start at 1000, your DELO would go up to 1010). The scale then was for every 100 points further away from this central spread you got credited with 10% more or less points. Another example: A team has a DELO of 800, falling in the 750-850 bracket. If this team scores 10 points above average, their DELO would go up by 10 x 120% = 12 points. However, if they scored 10 below average it would only go down by 10 x 80% = 8 points. So a bad team gets more credit for performing well than they lose for performing badly. And vice versa.

Finally, I decided I needed to perform the same between-season adjustment to bring teams back to closer to the 1000 starting point. At first I moved teams 10% closer, but then decided this wasn’t enough so moved it to 20%, which seemed to work. Again, it’s pretty arbitrary, but I’m trying to make a system that seems to represent team skill pretty accurately and this seemed to work. So what do I mean by moving teams 20% closer to 1000 points? I mean if a team had 1100 points at the end of the season, they would lose 100 x 20% = 20 points from their total and begin the next season at 1080. Each team would stay in the same order, but teams with a bigger lead over others would lose more points and the field would close up again, pending the next season’s battle commencement.

Now, I said finally, but there is a final, final step I made, but I applied this later, after I decided the system wasn’t working properly. Before that, I was still pretty happy, but I needed to leave it for a while and come back with a fresh mind. When I did, I decided that, despite the intra-season adjustment, not every team quite matched up by the end of the season to where their talent seemed to lie. I thought some more about 538’s Elo system for eras of sports and how they had to be removing old activity from the ranking to make sure they were appropriately evaluating the current team and I realised my rankings still included too much residual effect. I played around with some options until I found one that appeared to work.

I hit upon a formula which removed half the ranking points earned (or lost) in the same week of the previous year. Again, this feels arbitrary, but again it seems to reach the point where teams are fairly evaluated for their most recent performances. Specifically, their most recent season long performances (i.e. 16 games).

So what does all this show? Here’s a table:

2014 2015
Low Week High Week Final Low Week High Week Final
East Flanders Flahutes 754 16 998 2 754 724 6 799 1 760
Here Comes The Brees 873 16 1021 5 873 760 15 928 7 793
Tamworth Two 968 10 1100 6 976 926 5 1106 14 1087
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 739 14 953 1 782 836 7 922 14 856
Dynasore Losers 988 1 1185 12 1156 885 14 1149 3 905
DynaForOne Firebirds 907 4 1254 16 1254 1021 16 1255 1 1021
Dynablaster Bombermen 967 9 1041 12 1021 903 12 1065 4 997
Champions of the Sun 1000 6 1149 14 1144 1120 1 1395 16 1395
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 1040 1 1166 8 1161 1022 4 1121 14 1049
Dyna Hard 1005 2 1126 11 1086 1087 6 1280 14 1265

 

Remember, these scores essentially represent the the sum total of performance over the previous 16 weeks. They should kind of link to the total points scored, but when you scored them matters. Scoring a lot of points in a week when, overall, comparatively few points were scored will net you a lot more DELO ranking points than scoring them in a high scoring week. But sure, you could use points scored as a measure. But would that be a fair way of comparing teams across seasons? A high scoring team in a high scoring year may be less impressive than a slightly lower scoring team in a much lower scoring year. This accommodates for that.

And what’s the first thing it tells us? That Max’s winning team in 2015 was quite significantly better than Neil’s winning team in 2014, and even Dyna Hard in 2015 were better than Neil’s team. However, the context that needs to go with that is that Firebirds had a shocking start to 2014. In week 4 they had the second lowest DELO in the league (907), and they recovered from that point. They scored DELO 347 points from week 5 to week 16. Champions of the Sun, by comparison, scored only 198 across the same 12 weeks in 2015. So the Champions were more consistently good. They won 11 regular season games scoring over 3800 points in the process. The 2014 Firebirds, by comparison, snuck into the last playoff slot on the last week of the season with a 7-6 record, scoring 3480 points, before producing an incredible post-season. In fact, the 100 DELO points scored in week 16 is the greatest gain or loss by any team in any given week.

From this, perhaps we can say that the Firebirds produced the most dominant stretch, but for the season as a whole, Champions of the Sun were the better team.

Tune in next time for a breakdown of Offensive, Defensive and Special Teams DELO!

Access the file of data HERE!.

Not A Mock Draft – The Defensive Line

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Me again. Due to popular indifference I’ve decided to get of de fence and give the defence a go. We’ll see how this goes and whether I can be arsed with linebackers or the secondary.

Joey Bosa – DE – 5th Round – It’s not clear that Bosa is exactly what you want in a fantasy DE. As a general rule, even with the scoring changes, there’s a fairly solid correlation between sacks and total points. William Gholston (47T, 8TFL, 1FF, 3S) is behind both Jacquies Smith (16T, 5TFL, 3FF, 6.5S) and Jurrell Casey (33T, 11TFL, 7S) despite all those extra tackles, for example. Bosa put together a 7.5 and 13.5 sack campaigns in his first two years, but dropped to 5 in his final year due to consistently lining up against double teams. He was still able to work through those for an impressive 16 tackles for a loss, but Bosa lacks the things to really set him apart at the next level – he doesn’t have explosive burst, and there’s no obvious stunts he uses to get by, round or through opponents. He’s a hard worker and a safe, solid pick for the Chargers, but he’s not the next JJ Watt (as some very over-enthusiastic scouting reports have suggested). A lot will depend on how the Chargers use him. He could blossom into a pass rushing OLB type to complement Melvin Ingram, but early indications are he’ll line up at RDE, so more likely he’s the dependable every down DE, lining up on the strong side, who puts up creditable numbers and tickles the bottom quarter of the top 20, without ever hitting the double digit sack totals required for a top 10 position player.

DeForest Buckner – DE – 7th Round – Not a man you’d want to upset, at 6’7 and 291 lbs – he’s a monster, with scope to get more monstrous – made to play the position. I’m going to assume he’s named after the guy who played Bones in Star Trek (DeForest Kelly), because why not, and I can’t be bother researching the real reason. He has good initial power and burst with long arms and uses his hands well. There’s a lot of room for improvement, but that should come with NFL coaching – his snap anticipation isn’t great, and he doesn’t really chain his moves together, but his college career clearly demonstrates that he’s steadily improving, both in penetrating the backfield and making plays and in terms of general tackling. The major loser here is probably Arik Armstead, as Buckner is both a better prospect and probably more ready to play, but… San Francisco. The 49ers were one of the worst in the league in generating pressure last year, and while you could argue Buckner will therefore get plenty of chances to go after the QB because nobody else on this team does, more likely he’ll often be on an island doing it if he is. Chip Kelly seems to love over-paying corners and safeties to do the pass defending, rather than relying on pressure and pass rush.

Shaw Lawson- DE – 3rd Round – Lawson slots straight into what could be a fairly significantly rejigged front 7 in Buffalo, taking over from Mario Williams, who’s gone to suck away the end of his career in Miami – where talent goes to die. Lawson only has one proper season in college as a starter, but what a season. In tandem with Kevin Dodd, he put up a respectable 12.5 sacks and an NCAA leading 24.5 tackles for loss. I make Lawson the best DE prospect for fantasy in this class. He’s in a reasonably good spot compared to Bosa and Buckner, and he’ll be set loose on opposing quarterbacks. He has the physical tools for it too, with good burst and power, and the ability to consistently get a drive on his tackle and make plays, unlike Buckner he’s also a smart football player, who will set and maintain the edge. Some guys rack up numbers against sub-par college tackles, Lawson took Ronnie Stanley (the top drafted tackle in case you forgot) to school in the game against Notre Dame. He’s probably not an elite guy, but he could be a fairly consistent DE1. Unless Rob Ryan really Rob Ryans the shit out of that defence.

Emanuel Ogbah – DE – 5th Round – I avoided dinging Corey Coleman “because Cleveland”, and I really want to avoid doing the same for Ogbah, but… Offence is not defence, and Barkevious Mingo was once a highly promising edge rusher before Cleveland Clevelanded him. A two year starter at Oklahoma State, Ogbah put up 19.5 tackles for a loss and 22.5 sacks. And is slated to fill the hole Mingo was once supposed to. He’s a power rusher, ready to be impactful immediately at pro-level, he’s comfortable dropping into coverage too, and he probably ends up an OLB, rather than a DE in Cleveland’s system. He’s seen as a coachable prospect with the build and skills to develop further, but then, Oklahoma State don’t have a good record with players transitioning to the college game… and Cleveland!

Jihad Ward – DE – Undrafted – What were they thinking? A question people may have asked of his parents about his name. Or of the Raiders for drafting this monumental turd of a player so high. On one level, I get this – the Raiders needed a bookend rusher to partner Mack (the next best rusher on the team got 4 sacks compared to Mack’s 15) – and Mario Edwards seemed to split time between DE and NT, so he clearly isn’t the answer. But isn’t that why the spunked a load of money at Bruce Irvin? Ward played both inside and outside on the defensive line in college, lining up and catching the eye at RDE in the Senior Bowl and while some might see that flexibility as a bonus, really it’s an indication of his weaknesses. Not big or strong enough to match up inside and lacking the quickness or power to do anything but occupy space on the edge, Ward is a mid to late round project drafted about 3 rounds too early. I like what Oakland have done in the draft in the previous couple of years, but with bad reaches in both rounds one and two, and the unfathomable waste of a pick on Connor Cook, 2016 was a return to the baffling Raiders of old.

Carl Nassib – DE – Undrafted – Nassib is a bit of an unknown. I’m not going to throw up the “because Cleveland” excuse to ding him, but it does apply. A walk on at Pitt, who finally earned a starting spot as a redshirt Senior, Nassib broke out and broke school records on his way to being the sack-leader in NCAA football. But, that’s it. He is essentially a one-year wonder, a bit of a fairy tale and the sort of high-upside raffle ticket the Browns seem to have been targeting in this draft. If Nassib doesn’t work it out, it won’t be for a lack of effort. He’s a humble, shy sort who’s worked and earned everything he’s got and more power to him for it. But that’s not necessarily going to be enough. It’d be unfair to compare him to Michael Sam, but it’s reasonable to draw some small comparisons – both are an example of how standout college play may not translate to the NFL – Sam was named Defensive Player of the Year in his conference before the draft and Nassib led all college football in sacks. However, what works in college doesn’t always translate and you need more than one move or effort. Nassib has more to him than Sam, but he’s a long way from an NFL prospect, let alone a fantasy relevant one. His ceiling is probably as part of a defensive rotation, fine for where the Browns picked him.

The Rest – There’s a quick drop off in talent. This wasn’t an exceptional class of pass rushers anyway, at DE or OLB, but in general – fantasy relevant defensive ends are actually going to be few and far between, and the elite at the position tend to stick around (Dunlap, Watt, Wilkerson, Quinn, Ansah aren’t going anywhere soon). There’s probably only two others to consider… Shilique Calhoun (brilliant name – 7th Round) has impressive tape, and merited a better pick than a third rounder, but concerns about the lack of power in his game and his sometimes sloppy play – particularly his tendency to play with his head down and lose in initial contact – dropped him through the rounds. If he improves these elements, he could be the booked DE the Raiders want that Ward clearly isn’t. Might be worth a taxi squad stash. Bronson Kaufusi (another brilliant name – 5th Round) is worth a poke. He inherited the starting role from Ansah at BYU and is clearly a more polished product than Ansah (although without the freakish athletic gifts), with great footwork, drive and speed, and more than a couple of moves in his locker. He lacks flexibility and doesn’t run with much bend and that could be an issue, which is why he’s there in the third round. The Ravens are quite old at pass rusher, and have been looking for a young talent to step up and challenge Suggs and Dumervil. Kaufusi could offer something in that area, if he transitions to OLB.

Defensive tackle is a bit tougher to evaluate, but here we go:

Sheldon Rankins – DT – 6th Round – is a run stuffer who offers pass rush upside. I’d be a lot higher on him if he hadn’t gone to New Orleans to be part of the worst defence in history. Dennis Allen (left in the Airport in London by the Raiders) steps into Rob Ryan’s shoes, and Rankins will be a big part of the improvement New Orleans will hope to see, lining up alongside John Jenkins in the middle. There’s not really enough on the roster (Cameron Jordan Cameron is a one-man show) to force opposing offences into cheating and open up gaps for Rankins to attack, so he could simply be a very good, fantasy irrelevant DT. I’ve got him ranked a little higher than the write-up suggests because he’s the consensus best DT in the class, and if you’re going to pick one, this is probably the guy.

Kenny Clark – DT/NT – Undrafted – A classic Nose Tackle. For these guys to be fantasy relevant they have to be absolute monsters, capable of pushing two guys around like Dontari Poe. Don’t bother.

Robert Nkemdiche – DT/DE – 3rd Round – Stupidly dropped down the draft for stupid reasons. There’s times NFL teams are too risk averse (see his Ole Miss team-mate Laremy Tunsil) and get scared off making decisions which have little or no real risk attached. I love Nkemdiche as both a character and a player, and have no concerns about his transition. He’ll be great – most likely at DE, but he is officially a DT, having played there mostly in college. One note of caution – Arizona’s great defence isn’t all that great and isn’t filled with fantasy relevant players up front.

Vernon Butler – DT – Undrafted – It’s not clear where Butler lines up, with Star Lotulei and Kawaan Short both fairly young and a solid inside combination for Carolina. It feels a bit like a BPA pick, rather than one which fits in any particular plan. He’s not clearly a NT, although he did play some passing downs there in college, and with an ability to get upfield and make plays, Butler could end up stealing time from Kawaan Short and hurting the fantasy value of both players.

Chris Jones – DT – Undrafted – A bit of a project, Jones flashed all the tools in college, but inconsistently, and didn’t exactly look like he knew what to do with what he had. The Chiefs are obviously set with Poe and Jaye Howard in the middle, and more likely Jones ends up as an inside DE in their 3-4 front, with pass rush as ever coming from Justin Houston and 85-year-old Tamba Hali. Not really worthy of consideration, even as a post-draft pick-up.

Austin Johnson – DT – Undrafted – His 6.5 sacks last year in college point to a potential pass-rush upside, but don’t be fooled, Johnson is a run-stuffer first and foremost. He’s going to be playing on a Titans interior that doesn’t do all that much, so wouldn’t expect him to do much either.

A’Shawn Robinson – DT – 7th Round – Stick with me here, having shot down three higher picks as not worth drafting, why is Robinson different? Because he’s better, and in a better place. I’m not sure where he lines up for Detroit, he lined up all over for Alabama and was often asked to clog lanes and occupy bodies. If he ends up at NT, forget about it. But if he ends up paired with another NT, he’s in a much better spot than Rankins to get lanes to attack the QB. He doesn’t have explosive burst to collapse or penetrate the pocket and pressure the QB, but he has the traits to do so effectively if the opportunities open up.

The Rest – Too much effort separating Noses from actual useful DTs, and trying to work out where most of these guys will play, but there’s two others you might have considered or should consider. Andrew Billings (Undrafted) probably ends up as a nose tackle, replacing Peko for the Bengals. I mentioned earlier that Noses need to be absolute beasts to be fantasy successes, well Billings is that. A disruptive, powerful man who can toss blockers around and really disrupt the pocket, he could be worth keeping an eye on as a free agent down the line. Adolphus Washington (7th Round) is a raw prospect, but he will likely slot in alongside Marcel Dareus or just behind Kyle Williams on the Bills depth chart. With Dareus seemingly moving into a more NT role in Rex Ryan’s defence, probably out of spite because Max traded for him and Rex hates Max, that means Washington will be the guy in the middle moving up field to make plays. Of course, since Rex essentially plays a false four and lines up more like a 3-4, that could in theory make him an interior DE. That’s basically not much worth. But Rex won’t last long in Buffalo in all likelihood, and the Bills might get a Defensive Co-ordinator who builds a defence from what he has, rather than trying to put square pegs in the round holes of his own pet scheme.

Not A Mock Draft – Pass Catchers

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Who is this man, and why, beyond his hair, should he be drafted? Find out below...
Who is this man, and why, beyond his hair, should he be drafted? Find out below…

Yes, I said pass catchers. Mostly because the TEs aren’t worth an article of their own. Strap yourself in, this is going to be a long one…

Corey Coleman – High 1st Round – OK, let’s start with the elephant in the room. Yes, he is a Cleveland Brown. Yes, they will struggle to win more than 4 games this year. And no, none of this matters. RG3 is the best QB Cleveland have ever had. I’m not even joking, look it up. Cleveland have only ever had two QBs with over a 100 passer rating for the season – neither started a game and the second of them finished the season 1 for 1 for 8 yards. Josh McCown’s 2015 half-season is basically the best anyone’s ever properly played the position for Cleveland. If you exclude players who didn’t start a game, RG3’s truncated, disastrous, worst-of-his-career 2014 campaign would be the 4th best performance in reborn Cleveland’s history (two of those only started two games). I’ve watched Jay Gruden’s and Hue Jackson’s Bengals and while I’m not as enamoured of Jackson as some, there’s no doubt Jackson runs a better offence that works to the strengths of his players. I’m genuinely excited to see if he can turn around RG3’s career. But you know what… it doesn’t entirely matter if he doesn’t. Cleveland still produces notable fantasy players – Travis Benjamin, Josh Gordon and Gary Barnidge have all had decent returns with awful quarterbacks. Coleman is small, but he elevates well and he’s got quick hands. He’s rapid, with impressive acceleration and a good range of moves. He won’t likely bulk up, Baylor offensive products haven’t generally translated to the NFL particularly well, and he could do to cut out some of the drops that have plagued him, but he compares nicely with someone like Emmanuel Sanders and he won’t have to share the field with someone like Demaryius Thomas or Antonio Brown unless Josh Gordon makes a triumphant return. I like a lot of what the Browns did in this draft, and Coleman is a big part of that.

Will Fuller – Low 1st Round – As you might have noticed in the RB one, I’ve been trying to work in draft order, so Fuller goes next. Was Fuller worth a mid-1st pick? I wouldn’t say so. Is he a player worth owning? I wouldn’t say so. This pick, the whole draft in fact, suggests Houston aren’t enamoured with Jaelen Strong and that they want to invest in speed over all else. Hopkins proves (much as the point above) that talent can overcome even the worst of quarterbacking situations, and Osweiler is more unknown than terrible, but will have to struggle terribly to not be an improvement over last year’s Hoyer et al mess (statistically, Brandon Weeden was the best QB in Houston and Dallas last year). The question is more whether Fuller has the talent. At Notre Dame he showed explosive speed, and he attacks the ball well, and he’s good at drawing contact from defenders by putting himself in the right spot. The problem is that he’s very likely to lose those battles. He was shoved around fairly easily by college DBs, the NFL ones will flatten him. And his hands are not great. He might lose a size-off with Teddy Tiny Hands, and as a result he tends to body catch, which a lot of drops as a result. For every highlight catch he has on film, there’s at least one highlight drop. What separates the elite receivers in recent years isn’t speed, or athleticism – it’s the combination of speed and jump with the ball-handling skills to make catches when extended, to secure the ball under pressure. Fuller isn’t that guy and he’s not going to be much more than a boom or bust downfield threat in an offence that will run the ball a lot, and throw it to Hopkins at every chance.

Josh Doctson – High 1st Round – What stands out most about Doctson is his catch radius. He has the hands I talked about above in discussing Fuller, and the ability to make the sort of circus catches on bad throws that make QBs love you. You’ll also find it near impossible to find anyone willing to talk down his attitude or work-ethic. He doesn’t have the speed or ability to take the top off of a defence like Fuller or Coleman, but he runs hard. He does lack power, and he doesn’t really have a frame to suggest he’ll add it. And there’s that surgically repaired wrist that ended his season early. But perhaps the worst habit Doctson has is that he’s not strong over the middle. He tends to lose focus on the ball, instead watching the safety and making bad drops as a result. There’s a lot of plays go in that direction and unless he fixes that, it’s going to be unlikely he gets looked for on them. Doctson is in a relatively favourable position, with Garcon and Jackson out of contract, and no particular reason why Washington would bring them back, but it could be 2017 before he offers more than a glimpse.

Laquon Treadwell – High 1st Round – I think it’s pretty clear I love Treadwell – a 5 star recruit out of high school and a record-breaking receiver at Ole Miss. He’s going to go up and win the ball if it’s there to be won, and he is another, like Doctson, who will catch it if it’s there to be caught. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he’s not as slow as is sometimes made out. More importantly, he’s a clear number one in the Minnesota offence. Diggs will take the top off and make big plays, but Treadwell will be the go to guy, in the red zone (when not AP) or on medium to long third downs. He’s capable of turning screens into big gains and he thrives on contact, before and after the catch and particularly as a blocker. I’ve seen comparisons to Dez Bryant, but Bryant’s a mouthy fucker and I get the impression he’s more respected for what he can do than liked for who he is, so I’m going to go one better: Larry Fitzgerald. Treadwell is a quiet leader, highly respected in the locker room, and he’s a good fit for the Vikings in that sense. Whether he will end up quite the receiver these two are/were is a different question, but the similarities – outstanding hands, the ability to win the contested catches and to win the physical battles both in the air and on the ground should not be doubted, and the lack of top speed is perhaps not too important when you’ve noodle-arm throwing you the ball and Stefon Diggs on the other half of the field.

Sterling Shepherd – 1st / 2nd Round – A quick, shifty receiver who put up good numbers for OSU, Shepherd fits nicely in New York’s pass first offence as a number two to OBJ. Shepherd is small, and easily pushed around, but when he can get a clean release, he’s basically a cornerback’s nightmare – he easily changes direction, can create clean throwing lanes for his QB and will turn quick slants or a yard of separation into a big gain. His hands are about average. He’s soft to the ball, so doesn’t drop many, but doesn’t have the elastic catch radius and ability to catch everything that Doctson or Treadwell do. If a lot of this sounds like what you read about Cooks a couple of years back, that’s not a surprise. He’s not going to be as good as Cooks – who’s a bit more physical, despite his size – but there’s a lot to like. If he can avoid getting pressed out of games by physical corners, he’s an upgrade on whatever the Giants have had at #2 for quite a while, and could be a top 20ish receiver, but that’s a pretty crowded field with a lot of guys separated by a small number of points and it’s more likely he averages out somewhere around a WR3 or 4.

Michael Thomas – 2nd Round – I think Thomas probably goes in the 1st, but give me a second here. Don’t be fooled, New Orleans is a pass-first team and probably is when Brees moves on, but it’s not necessarily a great spot for a receiver. It’s a pass-first team with a lot of options. Only Brandin Cooks broke the 1k mark last year, with Snead putting up 900 and Colston, Ingram and Coleman also getting reasonable yardage. All of which means… It’s good to own Drew Brees and his 5,000 yards. But it’s not so great to own his targets – with the exception of Ingram and the TE. There’s simply too many passes spread between too many targets. Thomas simply slots in where Colston was, and that’s probably around the 600-800 yards mark with 4-5 touchdowns. There’s nothing particularly exceptional about Thomas, and little to get excited about. He’s a good size – 6’3 and 212 – so he’s going to do well against physical corners, but he’s not exceptionally quick, and you’re not going to get excited about his ball-handling skills (no sniggering back there). He’s probably the best route runner of the wide receivers mentioned so far – most of the rest ran limited route trees in college – but he’s also one of the least-worked. Ohio has a lot of players and spreads it around a lot when they’re not simply pounding it on the ground with QB or RB. I have Thomas down as a low ceiling player who’s not consistently going to be a top 30 receiver, and I’d not spend a first rounder on a player who could be an occasional flex or bye week cover.

Tyler Boyd – 1st / 2nd Round – Boyd is almost the exact opposite of Thomas. There’s a real dearth of options for the Bengals, and I’d suggest he plugs straight in as the second option, behind AJ Green – much like Sterling Shepherd in New York. Boyd mostly worked shorter routes, and projects as a slot receiver in the NFL. I could talk about how he broke Larry Fitzgerald’s (him again!) records for freshmen receivers at Pitt, but that massively oversells his ability. Boyd is a lovely mover – he’s quick, with fast-twitch acceleration and easy changes of direction, and along with Treadwell and Doctson, he’s one of the best ball-catchers in the class. He’s not Treadwell, but his hands are strong, and his catch radius is way bigger than it has any right to be thanks to a frankly absurd acrobatic / contortionist type of body control. So why isn’t he the best receiver in the class? At the combine he weighed in at 197. I’m assuming he wore a lead lined suit. He’s not just thin, he’s skinny. He’s not winning in the tackle. Hell, he’ll do well to survive his first decent hit. He will struggle in traffic, and unsurprisingly, he has had problems with drops as he tends to flinch at the sound of footsteps. He’s also had ball security issues, perhaps because his lack of functional strength makes the ball quite heavy to him. Boyd is a bit of a boom/bust candidate – there’s so much to like about his movement and freakish acrobatic skills, and he’s a good competitor. But unless he can find a way to overcome his lack of strength, he could find himself limited to gimmicky plays, in other words he could end up anywhere from Jarvis Landry to Cor!Darelle Patterson. One other concern – he got himself suspended for a DUI in college.

Braxton Miller – 6th Round – I know someone will take him before this, bigger fool them. Miller joins a receiving corps with Strong, Hopkins and Fuller – so in theory he could end up being the #2. But what does he offer exactly? Well, he performed well at the combine. Not exceptional, but one of the better players in the class. And that’s it. He has 26 career catches in college, as injury ruined his shoulder and forced a conversion from QB to WR, and none of note. So what can you learn from that? Bugger all. A total gamble by the Texans, and by anyone who drafts him. I don’t know anyone who had him as anything other than a late round flier, and I know I’ve consistently trashed the Texans draft class, but this was the shit cherry on top of the shit sandwich – a reach of the worst kind. I’d love to see Miller succeed – a former #1 prospect out of high school who had his QB hopes ruined by injury – he’d be a great story. But 5,000-1 shots don’t happen all the time and Leicester already stole his chance.

Leontee Caroo – 3rd Round – OK, he’s got a great name. And he’s a physical receiver who put up good numbers for the Big 10, and played bigger than his 6’0 frame suggested. But he’s gone to Miami where there’s already Parker, Stills and Landry, so he’s not exactly going to see a lot of chances initially, if at all. And he served a two game suspension for being the sort of cunt who gets arrested for hitting a woman. Fuck him and his magnificent name. You draft him and you’re a cunt too.

The Rest – I’d start with MoBo, but it’s more fun to keep Jay waiting. Chris Moore (4th) is another deep threat receiver for the Ravens. In case Mike Wallace is still shit, and Perriman is actually a total bust. At best he’s a Torrey Smith type boom-bust receiver who might crack the top 20. A proper burner though, with the ability to win at the line and run away from defenders. Malcolm Mitchell (3rd) is a prototypical Belichick pick – a former 5 star recruit who’s suffered a string of injuries to drop off the radar – the talent is there and he has everything to be as good as anyone in this whole class. He can win the physical battles, has great hands and terrific speed and he comes out of a programme with an NFL style offense, so should transition well. If he can stay fit. Ricardo Louis (7th) was a bit of a reach by Cleveland in the 4th, he’s a development project, who flashed the ability to make impressive catches, and also to make simple catches look much harder than they really were. Pharoh Cooper (5th) is a bit of a do-everything weapon, on a team who already have one in Tavon Austin and don’t really know what to do with him. Demarcus Robinson (4th) took a lot of drugs and picked a lot of fights. I’ve seen Justified. No way is Kansas a bad fit for him, no drugs or fighting there. No sir. As a receiver – he’s got the right sort of natural size and shape for it, and good hands, he’s quick and he’s a tough one to chase down. He’s capable of breaking tackles, and won’t be brought down by arm tackling. Of course, just standing in his way is going to be enough, as he generally avoids tackling like the plague, and will probably turn and run for the nearest sideline. If Andy Reid can instil a set of balls in him (and keep him off the reefer) he could be alright.

Look, there’s fucking loads of these guys, and I’m not doing them all. Who cares about Tyreek Hill or Seth DeValve really, anyway? You shouldn’t be drafting either of them. So, the last four receivers – Rashard Higgins (4th) is worth drafting for his hair alone. I’m not suggesting you draft anyone just for their hair though – that way lies chaos. Higgins was the best receiver in college in 2015 with Garret Grayson throwing him balls and earned a consensus All-American pick for his work. He’s a polished route-runner who’s very efficient in his movement and without having standout skills in any particular area, puts up startling production and always seems to find a clean lane for his QB to put the ball in. He could be a real surprise, and unlike Ricardo Louis or Seth DeValve, he could be the second good receiver in this class for Cleveland. Mortiz Bohringer (undrafted) unlike the NFL, he doesn’t get the umlaut from me because I can’t remember how to do it. Could easily be cut by the end of training camp – he’s a physical specimen at 6’4 227lbs and deceptively quick for a big man, with a big catch radius. But he’s not actually ready for the NFL as a receiver. Most likely he’s a draft and stash for two years and then cut sort of player. If he survives with the Vikings. I just don’t see a ceiling for him where he’s worth a pick. Kolby Listenbee (6th) will need to develop into a fantasy relevant NFL receiver. He is a former track All-American, and ran a very limited number of routes in college. There’s skills there – he attacks the ball well, has a good jump, good hands and obviously ridiculous speed and acceleration, but until he learns to do more than just race downfield he’s going to be very limited as a fantasy option. It’s not clear he has much room to bulk up either – and he doesn’t look likely to survive being hit by some very big, very strong men. The Other Michael Thomas (4th) another speedy, skinny receiver with durability concerns. This one however can catch the ball, ran a lot of routes and got good production for Southern Miss. Tends to flinch from contact and drops the ball as a result when he shouldn’t, he’s a better bet than most of the guys I’ve mentioned here.

Hunter Henry – 1st Round – Probably not a first round pick in other years, but this class isn’t that strong. Henry is probably the best TE prospect I’ve seen in ages. Fuck the rest, this guy is a stud. 90 targets, 2 drops. He’s a perfect fit for what Whiz and Rivers like to do in San Diego, and unlike a lot of TEs he could be effective in 2TE sets as a pass catcher in his rookie year. He’s not going to be a Gronk style do-everything stud, but he’s a proper tight end, not a receiver pretending he can block like Eifert or Reed. And he’s not got the same issues with durable. A first might be a reach, but then a lot of those in the second half of the first round are. Why not reach for the one player with the potential to be a proper talent at his position, rather than another mediocre bench receiver?

Rico Gathers – 3rd/4th Round – There’s a lot of reasons not to make this pick – he’s never played football properly (pretty much the same as MoBo there then). But basketball tight ends are a thing and there’s fewer more basketball-y than a guy who only played basketball and never suited up for a game of football in college. Gathers is a total gamble pick, but these guys when they work out are the ones you want – Eifert, Reed, Graham. And he’ll have time to develop and learn from a genuine great at the position in Dallas.

Austin Hooper – 5th Round – Hard to get over-excited about any of the other Tight Ends, but Stanford have 6 former players at the position in the NFL, so Hooper should stick around. He’ll need a year or two to learn the position properly and he was often the last guy on the line to move at the snap, which would be a problem against NFL defenders. Probably just another mediocre tight end. And he’s a Falcon – so he’s guaranteed to be shit – the new Levine Toilolo.

Nick Vannett – Undrafted – Don’t bother. He’s a good tight end, he blocks and plays well in the run game, but he’s not a fantasy relevant player and never will be.

Tyler Higbee – 4th Round – He’s a Ram, so he’ll be shit. And he’s not as excellently named as the Rams’ other TE prospect (Temarrick Hemingway), but Higbee could be the other fantasy relevant TE in this draft if you’re willing to look past the whole Rams thing. He’s a converted wide receiver so he runs routes well and has the ability to separate, make catches under pressure and in traffic. However, unexpectedly, he’s also a pretty good blocker, and he does his job in the running game too. That makes him an every down sort of player who can release and make catches. Might take some time to develop at NFL level, but he’s a sneaky good pick and stash. [Ed: Of course, he’s (allegedly) a violent racist hick so, you know, factor that in, or don’t, when you think about picking him]

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