Well thank Christ for that. Week 4 is in the books and finally we have some data that is actually starting to mean something. This feels like the first point in the season, for me, that we can really look at our teams’ performances and start to draw meaningful conclusions. Over the next two weeks I’m going to take a look at each team’s average score by position group so far this season and compare it to their average from weeks 1 – 16 of last season. This week: offence. To the data!

	2016 Week 1-4 Average vs 2015 Season 2015 Average
	Dungeoneers	Brees	T2	Sadness	Losers	Champions	Firebirds	Kelkowski	Hard	Bombermen
QB	-1.06	-1.08	2.49	5.96	-0.36	4.09	-5.23	-2.22	-6.23	-0.73
RB	-3.84	-4.36	-6.44	14.34	4.54	0.84	3.13	9.75	-2.29	13.61
WR/TE	-3.59	5.26	2.18	-12.68	6.34	0.42	-9.69	-5.67	-0.41	10.71
SPEC	2.09	0.95	-2.59	-2.10	-0.09	-2.29	-1.11	2.79	-1.22	0.91
OFF	-6.41	0.77	-4.37	5.52	10.43	3.06	-12.90	4.65	-10.14	24.49

Yuk. It looks much prettier in my spreadsheet, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Quarterback

Winners: So far MANGBOOB has resisted the urge to fiddle about switching Drew Brees in and out with whatever no mark he has down the depth chart and it’s paying dividends with an increase of nearly 6 points on average at the position. I mean, last season’s performance was a low bar to clear (less than 15 points a week) but a win’s a win. The Champions are showing an improvement of over 4 points too with Roethlisberger, Eagles aside, going to town so far in 2016.

Losers: So far through 4 weeks, a QB has been in Dyna Hard’s top 10 scorers of the week only once, in week 1 (for comparison, everyone else has had a QB in their top 10 3 or 4 times). Chris has cycled through Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and even Marcus Mariota so far, trying to play matchups but those three are simply too hard to predict (well, you could probably predict Marcus Mariota hasn’t been worth starting any of these weeks). Chris is probably best advised to pick one of Stafford and Manning and stick with them although no doubt whoever he picks will be the wrong one. The other big loser here is the Firebirds but I’m wary of reading too much into this. The Seahawks typically take time to get their offence going and Wilson has been banged up. I think we can expect to see this improve.

Running Backs

Winners: There are two runners way ahead of the pack here, the Sadness and the Bombermen. Neither of these is difficult to analyse. Imagine me standing mutely on a stage. To my right is Ezekiel Elliot. I am pointing at Ezekiel Elliot. To my left is David Johnson. I am pointing at David Johnson. You can dive a bit deeper and say that both are getting better support from Jeremy Hill and Matt Jones’ raging lack-of-any-competition but you probably don’t need to.

Losers: As many Dynabowl experts predicted (well, one… well, me) at the start of the season, T2 are suffering at tailback this season. Jonathan Stewart disappeared some time in September and without him LeSean McCoy is trying to navigate choppy waters on his own. T2 have traded for Bilal Powell this week in an attempt to put things back on course and it’s a good solid move that should help to steer them back towards mediocrity. The other big loser here is Breeses but, considering their RBs are still the 5th highest scoring in the Dbowl, I don’t think there’s much to read into this. With Doug Martin injured and Devonta Freeman not scoring three TDs every game it was bound to happen.

Receivers

Winners: The Bombermen are another big winner here and when you consider that between receivers and RBs they’re averaging 24 points more than last season it’s easy to see why they’re top of the rankings. It feels like this is the production we thought was coming this year so it’s not really a surprise. It must be very pleasing for Ben to see, having kept faith with Cooks, Benjamin and Jordan Matthews as each came through their own struggles last season. The Losers and Brees are also much improved here and you can point at off-season trades for Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry respectively as big factors in this.

Losers: While every category so far has been a triumph for the Sadness, the reading isn’t so pretty here. Odell Beckham is mouthing off more than he’s balling out and losing Eric Decker and Golden Tate (look, he was good last season) has hurt too. Stephon Diggs looks like the real deal though and as MANGBOOB’s rookies start to warm up to the NFL this score will head back the right way. The Firebirds are the next in line to the throne of suffering. No Gronk, no Demaryius Thomas and no Brady slingin’ it to Edelman probably explains this. The good news for Neil is that Willie Snead looks to be a good WR 2/3 going forward and that Gronk and Brady will be back firing on all cylinders soon. The real person to look to for trouble here is Pete. Cooper doesn’t get a sniff in the end zone and Allen and Kevin White are done for the season. That -4 is only going down from here I’m afraid.

Special Teams

Winners: We are all winners because we play in a league with fantasy punters. Every day I wake up a little bit happier than I would have been otherwise, knowing that this is the case. Now, if only we could get those fantasy Long Snappers in.

Losers: All those plebs out there who restrict themselves to a fantasy kicker. They don’t know what they’re missing. The only thing better than a great punt is an awful punt.

Offence

Winners: The Bombermen are a whopping 25 points better this season on offence than last season, turning from a middle of the road goose (they weren’t bad enough to be an ugly duckling) into a swan. Most of that 25 points is accounted for above so I will take the time to draw attention to the second most improved team on offence, the Dynasore Losers. I haven’t mentioned them much in any of the categories above because their improvement has more been about building on what came before. Good gains at receiver at and running back pair with holding steady at QB and special teams to produce a strong growth.

Losers: Dyna Hard are one of the biggest losers compared to last year, their offence being 10 points down on last season’s performance. Much of that is accounted for in QB as mentioned above but it’s worth noting that they are worse in every single offensive position this season, a worrying trend. Bottom of the pile are Neil’s Firebirds with a modest gain at RB from CJ Anderson’s new-found reliability not enough to counteract that weakened receiver corps and a banged-up Russell Wilson. The question really is, if Neil is giving 13 points away on offence compared to last season then how has he had such a decent start to the season? Tune in to next week’s blat to find out…

Weekly Stats

Here are your stats after week 4.

Blat Once Again With The Renegade Master — Blat Once Again For The Renegade Master

Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14. Tim wins. 1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91. Tim wins. 2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54 Tim wins. 3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18 Tim wins. 4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 182.78 vs Tim (average) 200.94. Tim leads (margin 18.17)

Oh dear. That margin just keeps growing. I might have to call this for Tim. TKO.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 2

September 22, 2016

Max Cubberley

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

For this week’s Stat Blat I thought I’d take the subject of my week 2 Stat Blat from last season and expand it. In Week 2 of the 2015 season I looked at the average points from 2014 and 2015 through two weeks to looks for early indicators of squad improvement and design, as well as looking at potential points on average to see what impact GM selection was having. I’ll be doing a similar idea this week. For those of you who might claim I’m only doing this again so I don’t have to think of a new thing to look at, you’re quite right.

Reality Bites

Below is a table of comparisons for average points in weeks 1-2 of 2014, 2015 and 2016, ordered by 2015 finishing order.

Team Name	2015 Standing	2014 Wk2	2015 Wk2	2016 Wk2	POA Diff
Champions	11-2	1-1 (181 poa)	2-0 (192 poa)	1-1 (216 poa)	+11/+24
Tamworth 2	7-6	2-0 (185 poa)	1-1 (167 poa)	0-2 (184 poa)	-18/+17
Dyna Hard	10-3	0-2 (168 poa)	2-0 (223 poa)	0-2 (176 poa)	+55/-47
Kelkowski	6-7	2-0 (212 poa)	0-2 (153 poa)	1-1 (160 poa)	-59/+7
Bombermen	6-7	0-2 (168 poa)	0-2 (156 poa)	2-0 (224 poa)	-12/+68
Sadness	4-9	0-2 (129 poa)	0-2 (154 poa)	1-1 (174 poa)	+25/+20
Losers	6-7	2-0 (175 poa)	1-1 (167 poa)	1-1 (190 poa)	-3/+23
Dungeoneers	5-8	1-1 (161 poa)	2-0 (158 poa)	1-1 (171 poa)	-3/+13
Breeses	6-7	1-1 (146 poa)	0-2 (152 poa)	1-1 (191 poa)	+6/+39
Firebirds	4-9	1-1 (137 poa)	1-1 (181 poa)	2-0 (206 poa)	+44/+25

The obvious story on the positive side is the Dynablaster Bombermen. After a disappointing 2015 they’ve come out gangbusters in 2016 with a massive 68 point average performance jump from 2015. A big part of that has to be their receivers with Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews all in their 3^rd years now and established as the number 1 options on their team.

Behind the B-men there are a cluster of teams showing significant improvement in the 20s range. The Firebirds have started stronger each year of the Dbowl so far and have been propelled to a 2-0 start by the surprising strength of their defence, averaging 112 points per game, the best in the league. The Dynasore Losers have also improved on 2015 and have had their strongest start yet, despite being 1-1. Offensive improvement is key here as the team is averaging 15 points more on offence through 2 games then they did in 2015, much of it contributable to a shift to Carson Palmer at QB and Matt Forte’s huge workload in New York.

The Sadness have shown steady improvement now for two years but when you consider that they still only averaged 174 points this year so far then it’s clear that this is just the continuing story of a team struggling towards mediocrity after an awful initial draft. Still, improvement is improvement and the team is young. If they jump 20 points again next year they could find themselves 2-0. Lastly, the Champions (in every sense of the word) may be 1-1 but have shown improvement again this year. This may not be a sign that they are in for another dominant year though as they actually started slowly last season. The second highest average points scored shows that they are still a force to be reckoned with though.

On the other hand, you have to look at Chris Braithwaite’s Dyna Hard With A Vengeance and wonder what went wrong. They were hugely improved last season but seem to have lost all of that positive gain this year, losing 47 points on average. As I highlighted in my preview, the running backs are a problem with none of them averaging over 10 points a game but the WRs are struggling too. Only Antonio Brown is over 20 total points, none of the rest are even close. The offence is averaging less than 100 points a game. Only the Firebirds are worse and, unlike Neil’s team, Chris’ defence is not firing on all cylinders.

Interestingly, Chris is the only team to be averaging less points than this time last year. Every other team is showing improvement. This doesn’t seem to be a result of scoring changes as it’s actually the offences that are scoring higher than last year’s averages, rather than the defences. Teams as a whole are averaging 189 points compared to 184 from last season. Maybe we’re all just getting better at this shit?

Is It Indicative?

Is there really any point to this? Does performance in the first two weeks of the season actually tell you anything about how a team will do that season? Below is each team’s Week 2 Average and Season Average.

Team Name	2015 Wk2	Wk2 Rk	2015 Season	Season Rk	POA Diff
Champions	2-0 (192 poa)	2^nd	11-2 (217 poa)	1^st	+25
Tamworth 2	1-1 (167 poa)	4^th	7-6 (189 poa)	3^rd	+22
Dyna Hard	2-0 (223 poa)	1^st	10-3 (199 poa)	2^nd	-24
Kelkowski	0-2 (153 poa)	9^th	6-7 (189 poa)	3^rd	+36
Bombermen	0-2 (156 poa)	7^th	6-7 (183 poa)	4^th	+27
Sadness	0-2 (154 poa)	8^th	4-9 (179 poa)	5^th	+25
Losers	1-1 (167 poa)	4^th	6-7 (176 poa)	7^th	+9
Dungeoneers	2-0 (158 poa)	6^th	5-8 (168 poa)	9^th	+10
Breeses	0-2 (152 poa)	10^th	6-7 (171 poa)	8^th	+19
Firebirds	1-1 (181 poa)	3^rd	4-9 (178 poa)	6^th	-3

The thing that jumps out to me straight away is the reasonably consistent rate of improvement for teams. 5 of the 10 teams improved by 19 to 27 points over the course of the season on average. This, presumably, is down to a combination of waiver wire pickups and starting lineup adjustment as the stars stashed on your bench in week 1 and 2 start to show. The biggest risers were Kelkowski. Looking at their lineups it’s noticeable that players like Blake Bortles, Brandon Marshall (LB), Reggie Nelson and Kwon Alexander weren’t in the starting lineup in week 1 and other big performers like Spencer Ware and Malik Jackson weren’t even on the squad yet.

To me it seems telling that the only team to lose average points (who didn’t start out abnormally hot like DynaHarder) was the Firebirds. Neil only added 8 players through blind-bid waivers last season. The four teams who added the most players? Champions of the Sun (42), DynaHarder (40), Tamworth Two (30) and Kelkowski (28), i.e. the four teams in the playoffs at the end of the season. Obviously there is a lot more to being successful in the Dynabowl than constantly churning through waiver wire additions but there’s no denying that the right pickups can have a huge effect and, just like the draft, the more tickets you buy to the lottery the more chance you have to come away with a Josh Norman, a Spencer Ware, an Allen Hurns, a Whitney Mercilus or a Willie Snead.

As far as the question of whether week 2 results are indicative or not is concerned, no team except Kelkowski moved more than 3 positions from their Week 2 Ranking to their Season Ranking. You can improve in your score in the early weeks for sure but the best/luckiest GMs will also be improving so your ability to make up ground on those people is limited. However, it is definitely possible to stagnate and not improve over the season. Everyone around you will be getting better and their scores will be getting higher. You need to do everything you can, whether that’s waiver wire additions, trades or rotating in from your bench wisely, to improve with them.

Weekly Stats

Here are your weekly averages for week 2.

Weekly Peter vs Tim Watch

Season to Date: Peter (average) 181.86 vs Tim (average) 196.53. Tim leads (margin 14.67)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 1

September 17, 2016

Max Cubberley

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

The first week of the NFL season is all about overreaction and the jerking of knees. To honour that I will be looking at everyone’s opening week performances and drawing some wild conclusions about what it means for the season ahead. In the absence of enough data to actually draw any real conclusions that’ll just have to do for you.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Hot Take: Keenan Allen is broken! Quincy Enunwa is the new Brandon Marshall! Carson Palmer’s about to go full Peter! I remembered Kevin White plays for the Bears! Coby Fleener didn’t get Drew Brees a birthday cake! That’s right, my wild conclusion for Pete’s Dungeoneers is that their receiver group that looked so good on paper in pre-season is actually a stinking turd. “But Maxuell,” I hear you cry, “The Dungeoneers scored 6.38 points per receiver, which was bad, but the Firebirds were worse at 5.94 points per receiver!” It’s true, the Dungeoneers were only the second worst team on a points per starter basis this week but the Birds had 7.4 per player on the bench and the Dungeoneers had 5.4.

Srsly? Yes. Allen is really done and the Bears’ offence looks pretty dire. Fleener’s situation does not look good either and Pete’s backup TEs don’t look great. Obviously it’s not as bad as all that. Cooper is still a stud and Marshall and Floyd will get theirs but I had high hopes for this group that look like they won’t be borne out.

Here Comes The Brees

Hot Take: The Breeses are the best team in Peter (not saying much, I know, see below). Andrew Luck is back to his gunslingin’ best and even in a week where Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller didn’t get into top gear the Breeses’ offence still averaged 11.57 points per starter, good for 2^nd in the league. The defence was in the bottom half of the league as you’d imagine but this team has the raw power to bludgeon other teams to death with the power of their attacking options.

Srsly? Yes. The Breeses and the Sadness were the best two teams in Peter this week by a comfortable margin. Looking at the rosters of the 5 teams there’s no doubt that the Brees have the edge in offensive power so as long as their defence can maintain its position of slightly below mediocre then they should be good to go.

Tamworth Two

Hot Take: Tamworth Two will be picking at #1 in the 2017 rookie draft. T2’s starters in week 1 were uninspiring. I mean, they’re rolling out 52 year-old Anquan Boldin at WR and a Cleveland RB. Things look better on the defensive side of the ball but the nerfing of big plays brings the ceiling down on their elite DTs and it’s not hard to see everyone else except Kuechly and Jones hanging T2 out to dry. This team is very average rather than bad but everyone else has upped their game and Mat are getting left in the dirt.

Srsly? No. Everything’s very close in Peter to my mind so it’s not impossible but I think T2 have enough quality and Mat and James are good enough GMs that they won’t finish bottom. Although they have Slatz’ first round pick so they may still end up with the #1 pick in the rookie draft…

The People’s Republic of the 4^th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Hot Take: Teddy Tinyhands’ injury will lead the Sadness to the playoffs. We all know Michael likes to tinker. He’s never happy with his lineups and his choices and he’s always going backwards and forwards. This often leads to him getting too clever on his choices and overthinking them. For that reason, Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury was a very good thing for the Sadness. Drew Brees is a consistent, top of the line fantasy QB and he was on the bench for the Sadness last season. Now, unless Mangboob develops inexplicable Brockules man-love, Brees will be starting every game he’s available for and the Sadness will be better for it. Perhaps the hotter take here is that I think the Detroit RBs will pave the way for a playoff appearance but both Abdullah and Riddick looked great and Mangboob could start both of them in a week and still be confident of results.

Srsly? No. The Colts looked monumentally bad on Defence in the game against the Lions and Riddick and Abdullah will not get that open that often against many teams. On the Brees front, I trust him, I just don’t trust Mike. It’s a three way QBBC with Brockules and Goff when he starts. Don’t ask me how it makes any sense, I don’t get it either.

Dynasore Losers

Hot Take: The Losers should be in re-building mode. Look, they low-scored this week, they were third bottom in points scored last season and bottom in potential points. Their running back corps consists of two 30+ year-old guys and a random assortment of limbs. His defence looks like it was assembled by accident. It’s time to get over that deep-seated tradeophobia, ship out some of the top talent and stack picks for the next couple of drafts. Re-building around Moncrief, Landry and that stable of young QBs is the way forward for the Losers and week 1 proved it.

Srsly? Yes. The team lacks youth and depth and you’re relying on a very high hit rate in the draft to get out of that if you don’t sell assets and stack picks up. Free Agency should improve in quality over the next few years so it’s not impossible to rebuild that way but if Slater looked to sell the likes of Wilkerson, Forte and Sanders he could go into the 2017 draft with 10+ good picks and maybe even get back into the first round.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Hot Take: The Firebirds will make it to the Owl again. A week 1 victory against the reigning champs? Check. A monster defensive performance? Check. The renaissance of CJ Anderson? Check. A dominant offence? Ch… wait. Oh. Lowest scoring offence this week, you say? Only 5.94 points per starting receiver, you say? Second worst QB performance after Kirk Cousins, you say? Oh. Look, the fact that Neil’s boys put up nearly 200 points and won their matchup despite a poor offensive performance is exactly why I’m backing them. You think Snead will be on the bench next week? You forget that the Seahawks offence often starts slow? Geno Atkins and Ndamukong Suh won’t put up over 40 points every week but they won’t need to. I can see this team going places.

Srsly? No. Of course not. Neil will probably trade away all of his good players for a second tier DE and a 5^th round pick.

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

Hot Take: Braithwaite’s boys will be held back by weak running backs. So, Gurley is a bust right? OK, that may be an over-reaction but when the opposing defence can put ten players within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1^st and 10 because they know your QB can’t throw it further than that you’re going to be really up against it. Apart from Gurley Chris is calling on Jamaal Charles (not healthy and coming back to a backfield dominated by Spencer Ware) and Jeremy Langford (just shit and only scoring points because there’s no-one better there yet) to do the business. The rest of his RBs are long-shot rookies or backups and this could get ugly. In week 1 they averaged 7.87 points per starter and 2.13 per player left on the bench (of which Shaun Draughn was the top scorer with his 16 yards and 1 vultured TD). Gurley will have his big weeks but I don’t like any of the rest of these guys to produce consistently.

Srsly? Yes. The hot take is harsh on Charles who isn’t the kind of player you don’t give a role to when healthy but I do think there will still be a big role for Ware all season long and that caps his ceiling. Jeremy Langford’s best case scenario is that he keeps the job and continues to churn away his 3-3.5 YPC but any week he doesn’t get in the end zone is likely to be a low scorer. Chris doesn’t have the TEs to only play 2 TEs and his best bet might be to hope for an injury to Rawls or Ryan Matthews to get Christine Michael or Kenjon Barner involved.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Hot Take: Kelkowski have one of the top three defences in the league. 3.58 per starter at DT/DE (7^th in the league), 4.06 at CB (worst in the league) and 53.50 points total on defence (worst in the league). Those stats should tell you everything you need to know to backup the point right? Look, no-one’s going to pretend this defensive performance from Kelkowski wasn’t disappointing. I imagine the men (man?) themselves had something to say to their players after the game but the reality is that the majority of this bad performance was down to a low-scoring secondary and a donut from Malik Jackson. Every secondary in the league can have bad games, the position is very fickle, and Kelkowski have a good group full of potential. Malik Jackson will start to rack up the points once he adjust fully to playing in Jacksonville and they still have one of the strongest groups of LBs in the league. They’ll be fine.

Srsly? Yes. This really is a very talented bunch who just had an off day. Kelkowski were good in 2014, they were good again in 2015 and they’ll be good again this year. Someone over there (presumably Ian because it’s almost certainly not Jay) knows what they’re doing.

Champions of the Sun

Hot Take: The Champions of the Sun will go from first to worst in Tim. It was only a freakish performance from Ben Roethlisberger and DeAngelo Williams that even made this week 1 matchup with the Firebirds respectable. The Champions scored ok on offence (largely due to the two already mentioned) but their much vaunted defence of last season did not show up at all. Their 63.18 points was good for 8^th worst and the main problem was upfront where their line scored a measly 1.75 points per player. There was an average of 6.83 points per player on the bench but whether Cubberley has the nous to pick the right players week-on-week is seriously up for debate.

Srsly? Of course not, I’m a hustler baby. Here comes Owl number 2!

Dynablaster Bombermen

Hot Take: Week 1 was a flash in the pan and the Bombermen will slide back to the pack and miss the playoffs. The Bombermen were the best team by a country mile in week 1 with a whopping 13.72 points per player on offence (best in the league). Their receivers racked up 85.8 points, only just missing out on the top 5 receiving performances of all time in the league. So am I a crazy person? That all depends on whether you think Melvin Gordon is going to get 2 TDs per fame when the Chargers are always playing catchup. Or on whether you think Ryan Shazier (questionable for the weekend with a knee injury, again) can play regularly. Or on whether you think Jordan Matthews is breaking out or if you think he was just up against the Browns. There are obviously stars on this team (AJ Green, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, Greg Olsen) but I think week 1 was just right place, right time, their QBs are terrible and this kind of performance won’t be repeated every week.

Srsly? No. Did you see the list of players I wrote down as the stars on the team?! I even left some out. The Bombermen are stacked. They were many people’s favourites to win the Owl in 2015 and week 1 establishes them among the favourites to win it this year.

Weekly Stats

If I remember, I’ll post up a picture of the year’s average stats here when I do a blat.

Nothin' but the stats, ma'am. — Nothin’ but the stats, ma’am.

Weekly Peter vs Tim-watch: For two seasons now, Peter has been the Wallace Shawn to Tim’s Andre the Giant but could the tide be turning? Every Stat Blat I will take a couple of lines to compare Peter vs Tim so we can all keep an eye on the situation.

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14. Tim wins. 1-0 to Tim.

Stew’s Pot Luck – Don’t Take Offence, It’s The Offensive Previews

September 9, 2016

Commish

Previews No Comments

Dynabowl offensive previews

East Flanders Dungeoneers

2015 record: 5-8 (8th)

With a lacklustre finish in 2015, EFD needs a strong start to have a shot at improving their record. There will be no better way to do this than with Cam at QB in the season opener. He’s a beast in the 4 point-per-passing TD format (amassing 636 rushing yards and 10 TDs in 2015) and Tannehill won’t get a look in.

The depth at WR is the other bright light. Allen, Cooper (1,070 yards, 6 TDs in 2015) and Marshall (1,052 yards, 14 TDs in 2015), are easy locks for starting at WR and should produce big things. Floyd is on a lot of breakout lists this season, though he could be anywhere from the 1st to 4th best receiver in an offence that brimmeth over with talent. White’s breakout hopes seem to be dwindling, so these starters need to stay healthy.

The RB core is a big of a dumpster fire. Carlos Hyde could be decent and showed some brilliance at the beginning of the 2015 season (182 yards and 2 TDs in week 1!). Rashad Jennings is probably a bit short of RB2 material, though he ended 2015 strongly (over 100 yards in each of the last four weeks) and should have more of a feature role in 2016 and improve on his 20th best RB ranking in 2015.

Fleener, while no Graham circa. 2014, is an excellent starting TE and an upgrade over Watson – he should take a good chunk of the points production at N’Orleans.

Final offensive prediction: 1-12 (10th place).

Here comes the Brees

2015 record: 6-7 (9th)

With a reasonable regular season record, I’m left wondering what happened in the post-season to finish 9th overall? I’m assuming it was horrible to watch and may have been, at least in part, due to the hubris and nemesis of Freeman (1,056 rushing yards, 11 TDs but only 4 yards per carry in 2015).

Things are looking bright at QB. Tom Brady (2nd best QB in 2015) is the single greatest player (nay person) to pick up a football and Andrew Luck should have a much better 2016 with an improved O-line and time to recover form the spate of injuries in 2015. With two starters after week 4, also potential for a nice trade here to help out at WR.

I love the RB depth with this team. Lamar Miller was wasted in Disneyland and is going to be a stud this season in Houston. Doug Martin (1,402 yards, 6 TDs) had an excellent 2015 and should pick up where he left off. There are question marks over whether Freeman can re-find the promise he showed pre-concussion but should be excellent. Sims is a quiet sleeper for me to pick up good all-purpose yards production, while Hightower is a valuable back-ups if Ingram goes down.

With the exception of TD machine Allen Robinson (14 TDs in 2015), the WRs are quite thin on the ground. Fitzgerald should have another nice 1,000 yard+ season and Dorsett is worth keeping an eye on, if Luck gets going and spreads the ball around to more than Hilton and Moncrief. I like Ertz at TE this season, a solid stand-in for Tylenol Eifert while he gets back to full health.

Final offensive prediction: 4-9 (8th place).

Tamworth Two

2015 record: 7-6 (2nd)

Oh to be back in 2015, when McFadden (1,089 rushing yards, 3 TDs) was doing what Randle couldn’t in Dallas, Stewart was over-delivering in Carolina (989 rushing yards, 6 TDs), Crabtree was dominating catches in Oakland (85 rec vs. Coopers 72), and we still assumed Peyton would be able to throw a ball to Thomas (1,304 yards, 6 TDs). At the start of the 2016 season, the team is looking a bit less shiny.

The position at QB is looking strong with two starters. Rodgers’ Packers will feel they deserve a Superb owl appearance, so should be … well, superb. I like Tyrod Taylor in 4 point-per-passing-TD formats. As long as Watkins (11 yards per target and 17 yards per reception in 2015) can remain healthy and productive, he will be a good starter, leading to some difficult starting line-up options some weeks.

At RB, LeSean McCoy (17th best RB in 2105, but a disappointing 3 rushing TDs over 12 games) should be a solid RB1. After that, there’s a bumfight for RB2 spot. Duke Johnson could be a sleeper if Cleveland can remain competitive and he dominates touches in favour of Crowell.

There are two good starting WRs in Thomas and Jeffrey (807 yards, 4 TDs over 9 games), though both have their risks – new QB and injury/offensive ineffectiveness respectively. Crabtree is likely to be the third best receiver, but should take a step back in 2016 as Cooper shines. As long as he can keep the bulk of the redzone work, he should be ok though.

Not much to shout about at TE. Eric Ebron (537 yards, 5 TDs in 2015) is the obvious starter and should get a bump following the departure of Megatron but difficult to get too excited about based on an unexciting 2015.

Final offensive prediction: 2-11 (9th place).

TPRot4thD: Dynasty of Sadness

2015 record: 4-9 (6th)

The recent injury to Teddy Bridgewater was gruesome (flailing knee anyone) but with Brees (averaging 20+ fantasy points per game in 2015) taking the starting QB position the fantasy impact for this team should be nil. Osweiler is a nice back-up if needed and has looked promising in the preseason. Goff will probably forget his own name so probably want to steer clear. Sweet tank though.

The depth at RB looks much improved with the addition of Elliot and Dixon (a good stash for week 4+). Elliot has all the signs of being a stud taking advantage of that O-line. I got burned by the Abdullah (pathetic 597 rushing yards and 6 fumbles) hype in 2015, so don’t have too much confidence in the Detroit RBs. Riddick’s (80 rec in 2015) role is pretty well defined on the passing plays and Zenner seems unlikely to provide enough production to start on a week-to-week basis, despite looking like the best RB in Detroit before getting injured.

At WR, “ODB” (1,450 yards, 13 TDs in 2015) is the shining light and should be amaze-balls. Despite no obvious number two, there is good sleeper value. Kenny Stills has been getting some attention in Miami, while Michael Thomas, Treadwell and Diggs are all good candidates to step into sizeable roles in 2016.

Delanie Walker (94 rec, 1,088 yards and 6 TDs) should be excellent this season in an improved Tennessee offence and Dwayne Allen should bounce back and be more productive following the Fleener departure – a nice decision to have to make each week.

Final offensive prediction: 8-5 (4th place).

Dynasore Losers

2015 record: 6-7 (7th)

This looks like a team that can grind out wins in 2016, but it won’t be pretty.

With about 1/10th of the salary cap going on four mid-range QBs, it might be time to rationalise with some blue-sky thinking to create a new paradigm. Carson Palmer (close to leading with 4,671 passing yards and 35 TDs in 2015) seems like the obvious starter, if he can stay healthy and take advantage of the WR talent in Arizona, though Carr (15th in 2015) and Winston (13th in 2015) may also be worth starting in a given week.

This team is shallow at RB. Peterson (1,707 all-purpose yards, 11 TDs in 2015) should get a lot of work to start the season, though I’d want McKinnon too should age and workload catch up with AP. I’m not optimistic about the rest. Forte (< 900 rushing yards, 7 TDs) seems likely to take another step back in 2016 and Blount (only 746 yards, but 7 TDs in 2015) might be a good starter but you really will have no idea week-to-week. I don’t see Washington doing much without an injury to Murray.

To balance this, the team looks great at WR. Jordy is back and will be a stud in the Bay. Moncrief (only 733 yards and 7 yards per target in 2015), seems to be on all sleeper lists everywhere always and his ADP has been creeping up, with good reason. Landry (1,270 all-purpose yards, 5 TDs in 2015) is a great pick in Miami, as long as Tannehill and the O-line hold strong in 2016. Gordon is an unknown, but after a promising preseason he could be great. To round it out, the WR2 position in Pitt is up for grabs and Coates seems a good candidate to run with it.

Nothing to shout about at TE – Graham (74 targets over 11 games) could be productive but needs to prove he can play a sizeable role in Seattle and Walford showed some promise and rapport with Carr in 2015, but would need to take a large step up to be worth starting.

Final offensive prediction: 6-7 (6th place).

DynaForOne Firebirds

2015 record: 4-9 (10th)

A disappointing 2015 record shouldn’t discourage this team for 2016 – they’re definitely my favourite to get a most improved award.

At QB, Russell Wilson (4,024 passing and 553 rushing yards in 2015) will be excellent with his hands and feet and should have a good shot at ending the season at number 1 and MVP. Rivers (4,792 passing yards in a league leading 661 attempts) throws a tonne is a decent stand in for the bye week and a sneaky choice when the match-up suits.

This is a damn fine bunch of RBs. The new, leaner Lacy (only 946 all-purpose yards in 2015) should be back on form after a disappointing 2015. Hopefully CJ Anderson (903 all-purpose yards in 2015) has shaken off his ankle troubles from last year. And despite the naysayers, I like Mathews – he has an inexperienced QB who will want to hand off and while he faces injury risk, this seems far overblown. Plus a mint week 1 match-up. Gore (12th best RB in 16 games and 260 attempts in 2015), could still be a workhorse in Indy and Rawls (6 yards per rushing attempt) could be useful, despite Seattle’s backfield shaping up to be an RBBC.

The WR bunch seems well thought through. Julio (1,871 yards in 20150 is the sole stud, and Edelman (37th best WR despie only playing 9 games) is great but with some patience there is a great chance that a few of the other WRs will emerge as top 20 WRs in 2016. My money is on Snead (984 yards in 2015) with a pass-heavy New Orleans offence, though Jackson and Sharp both have 2nd year QBs in offenses that should be productive in scoring points and chasing games. DGB is probably not going to do anything, but it would be cool to see him get going in Philly.

Gronk-party boat-owski (1,176 yards and 11 TDs in 2015) is amazing, but you knew that.

Final offensive prediction: 11-2 (2nd place).

Dynablaster Bombermen

2015 record: 6-7 (5th)

When you’ best QBs are Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins (8th best QB in 2015 with 4,166 passing yards and 70% competion), difficult questions will be asked. Dak had a nice pre-season but I think Cousins will be the go-to guy, with a nice receiving core and an improving O-line. RGIII got named team captain, which is nice for him. Still, it’s the Browns though.

David Johnson (1,038 all-purpose yards, 12 TDs in 2015) will be fun to watch in Arizona and, if he lives up to anywhere near his ADP, will be a lock for 1500+ all-purpose yards and 12+ TDs. So that’s all good then. The memories of 2015 disasters past seem to be fading for Gordon (not a top 50 RB in 2015) and Hill (794 rushing yards, but 11 TDs!), though they might be difficult to trust week-to-week given the bust potential. Gio (21st best RB in 2015, 1,200 all purpose yards, 5 TDs) should emerge as a decent match-up proof RB2 or flex behind that O-line.

At WR, AJ “turf toe” Green (1,297 yards off only 132 targets in 2015) is one of the most fun players to watch, as long it’s not prime-time. Cooks (12th best WR, 1,138 receiving yards in 2015) and Decker (10th best WR, 1,027 receiving yards but 12 TDs in 2015) should be very productive again in 2016. Benjamin may start slower than Funchess and Olsen, and rumours are he’s chubbed up a bit and is losing snap counts, so not sure what to expect there.

Greg Olsen (1,104 yards and 7 TDs in 2015) should have another solid season with plenty of red zone targets, you pretty much know what you get at this stage. It’s a shame, therefore, that Butt-catch Barnidge (1,043 yards and 9 TDs in 2015) will probably warm the bench.

Final offensive prediction: 9-4 (3rd place).

Champions of the Sun

2015 record: 11-2 (1st)

Congratulations to this team on their dominant record in 2015 and championship. However, I can see the crown slipping in 2016.

Big Ben (21st but almost 4,000 yards in 12 games in 2015) had an excellent 2015 and will be a fine fantasy starter in 2016, despite slipping in fantasy rankings. Not much in terms of back-ups here though, with Lynch losing the starter job to Siemian and may be third behind Sanchez also.

Bell is the clear RB1 from week 4, and Williams (1,274 all purpose yards, 11 TDs in 2015) should be an excellent fill in, with a great week 1 match-up to boot. I love Stradivarius Murray (10th best RB in 2015, with 1,298 all-purpose yards but only 6 TDs), who should pwn with an excellent O-line and a lot of production. Booker and McKinnon are both valuable handcuffs/trade bait for their respective starters. Like orange is the new Black, could White be the new Dion i(4 TDs in only 7 games in 2015) n New England? A good looking bunch.

And the fun doesn’t stop there. Hopkins (3rd most receptions and 1,521 yards in 2015) was a monster in 2015, despite a poor QB situation, so should see a great 2016 with the upgrade to Osweiler. Mike Evans (1,206 yards, 3 TDs) is the easy number WR2 despite a slightly disappointing 2015 on TDs and will be the clear centre-piece for Tampa Bay. Choosing the WR3 between Brown (21st best WR in 2015), Shepard and Tate (34th best WR in 2015) is a nice problem to have. At least one should emerge as a clear starter by week 3.

Jordan Reed (952 yards, 11 TDs in 2015) will be an excellent starter at TE, with Kelce (875 yards, 5 TDs) a decent replacement if the usual injuries hit.

Final offensive prediction: 7-6 (5th place).

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

2015 record: 6-7 (4th)

I think the decent showing in 2015 and I can see the good times keeping on rolling …

While the Bortles (4th best QB in 2015, with 4,428 passing yards but 18 interceptions in 2015) hype train is starting to slow down, he should be a reliable starter each week and, some weeks, will be great. Fitz-magic can be swapped in when the match-ups favour the beardy man. Kaep won’t be worth starting, but nice to have him on your team as a point of principle.

The shrewd addition of fantasy expert love interest Derrick Henry adds some great depth to the RBs, to back up Murray (1,024 all-purpose yards and 7 TDs in 2015). One of them should be a good producer in 2016 and my money’s on Henry. Mark Ingram (1,174 yards, 6 TDs in 2015) is a solid starter and, with the lingering knee issues for Charles, Ware will be a great starter for the Chiefs. Don’t fancy Blue (39th best RB in 2015), Foster or Yeldon (26th best RB in 2015) to do much given their all in backfield timeshares, but hopefully won;t need to start them unless things get desperate.

This team is loaded with high to low range WR2s. Cobb (28th best WR in 2015, 829 rec yards) should have a better 2016 since he should draw less coverage. Funchess is a good shout to lead the Panthers in receiving yards, Baldwin (7th best WR in 2015 with 14 TDs!) is just brilliant and Aiken (944 yards, 5 TDs) should produce again in Baltimore. Rookie Will Fuller is a neat addition to the team. His draft report warned he has skinny legs though, so watch out for that I think? I don’t really understand the excitement about Maclin (1,088 yards, 8 TDs in 2015) given the Chiefs’ running game will have improved significantly from 2015, but I might be an outlier here.

Either Jared Cook or Julius Thomas should be fine TEs this season, but nothing special.

Final offensive prediction: 5-8 (7th place).

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

2015 record: 10-3 (3rd)

I love this team almost as much as the name. It’s not a Christmas movie though.

At QB, Manning (10th best QB in 2015), Mariota (22nd best QB in 2015, but only 12 games in 2015) and Stafford (9th best QB in 2015) are all viable starters in 2016. Mariota is especially valuable in the 4-point-per-passing TD format and Stafford will probably only get better without the pressure to keep Megatron involved.

The depth at RB is attractive, with Gurley (1,294 all-purpose yards, 10 TDs in 2015) and Charles as two clear RB1s. Langford (816 yards, 7 TDs in 2015) has the chance of remaining productive if the Bears can keep games close enough to run the ball. Christine Michael could be the leading rusher in Seattle at the end of the season, though we’ve heard the hype before. Smallwood and Drake are neat additions, though Miami and the Eagles might be offenses tto avoid in 2016.

This is a team with two WR1s – Brown (1,834 yards and 10 TDs in 2015) and Dez; two WR2s – Hilton (1,124 yards and 5 TDs in 2015) and Watkins (15th best WR despite playing only 13 games in 2015); and two WR3s – Hurns (14th best WR in 2015) and Lockett. Plus Pryor! Absolutely loaded. TE is fairly thin, with a bumfight between Bennett or Rodgers to start. Neither will be great in 2016 though.

Final offensive prediction: 12-1 (1st place). Probably not a surprise, but this is my team to dominate and take home the Owl.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Pre-Season Tim Preview

September 8, 2016

Max Cubberley

Max Stat Blats Previews No Comments

DynaForOne Firebirds

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

101.71 ppg, 9^th best in league

QB 21.68 ppg, 1^st RB 24.03 ppg, 9^th WR/TE 43.66 ppg, 7^thSPEC 12.34 ppg, 10^th

It was a case of first to worst (in Tim, it’s almost impossible for a Tim team to be worse than most of the teams in Peter) for Neil Hawke and the Firebirds last season. The inaugural champs didn’t lose it at QB though where Rusty Wilson and Big Phil Rivers are one of the best one-two tandems in the league. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and, barring the ever-present spectre of injury, there’s no reason to think that the Firebirds’ QBs won’t be right up there again this year.

So where did it go so wrong then? Step forward CJ Anderson and Marshawn Lynch. Neil’s two big RB threats going into last season both underwhelmed drastically for one reason or another and left the Firebird’s relying on Chris Johnson’s zimmerframe and Frank Gore’s determination to show the young ‘uns how they do back in the day. This season Lynch is retired and Gore and CJ2K are both yet another year older. The Firebirds have added Lynch’s heir presumptive in Seattle, Thomas Rawls, and traded for Eddy Lacy though. Rawls and Lacy both have question marks over them but it’s good to see Hawke recognise the problem and take big steps to resolve it. If CJ Anderson turns up this year and Ryan Matthews stays healthy this could be a very strong group.

The receivers weren’t quite as bad as the RBs but they still weren’t great. How Julio Jones didn’t get injured from the stress of having to carry this entire offence on his back last year I don’t know. Edelman gave him some help before injury ended his season and Hawke pulled Snead from the waiver wire but after those three there’s really nothing to say. Again though, the Firebirds went hard at fixing this position. Vincent Jackson came in free agency and Markus Wheaton in a trade (albeit for a vastly overinflated price for some reason). With Corey Coleman, Tyler Boyd and, particularly, Tajae Sharpe added in the draft there is a good group of young receivers here who can provide this season and hopefully for a while to come. And at TE? Hawke had Gronk last season and he still has him this season. End of story.

Trending up

DEFENCE

75.81 ppg, 8^th best in league

DL 28.22 ppg, 2^nd
LB 24.90 ppg, 7^th
DB 22.69 ppg, 9^th

Along with the Tamworth Two, the Firebirds have the best DT tandem in the league and both Geno Atkins and Ndamukong Suh (eventually) produced the numbers last season and are in a position to do it again this year. Unfortunately for Neil he only had one DE that scored over 51 points last season and none that scored over 100. It’s all change on that front this season with only Charles Johnson back. Brandon Graham moves from LB to DE to provide a clear #1 but Johnson is not the guy to rely on and so Neil is left looking askance at Mario Williams and hoping that he can be bothered to turn up and play in Miami when he couldn’t in Buffalo. To be honest though, if Neil just didn’t play a second DE it still wouldn’t be that much worse than last season.

The Firebirds’ LBs were a weak unit last season with injuries to De’Andre Levy and Alec Ogletree cutting down hugely on their ceiling. Behind those two both Lawrence Timmons and Julius Peppers were solid but Derrick Johnson was the only elite performer. This season both Johnson and Timmons are back and Levy is at least Questionable rather than Out. Ogletree looks healthy, Eric Kendricks moves into year two after a promising rookie season and Mark Barron has been moved from S to LB. Last season’s performance should be the floor for this unit going forward.

The real place that Hawke suffered was at DB though, giving away 16 points a week to the best unit in the league. If you got prizes for having the most players to choose from he would probably do very well as he had a whopping 12 DBs on the roster at the end of the season but sometimes less is more, particularly at CB where the Firebirds had 7 players and only one that scored over 90 points. Neil has trimmed down a little for this season (although he still has 10 DBs) and added Janoris Jenkins at CB who scored well last season, although he is in a new spot this year. Patrick Chung is the only addition at S though where Mark Barron’s loss will hurt.

Steady

OVERALL

177.52 ppg, 7^th best in league

The Firebirds have strengthened on offence and should be much closer to the middle of the pack this year and with more depth in reserve. On defence, although the LBs got better the DBs got worse and the D line is one injury away from collapse. I think they may still be the worst team in Tim but the performances should be better.

Dynablaster Bombermen

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

103.81 ppg, 7^th best in league

QB 17.17 ppg, 7^th RB 25.09 ppg, 8^th WR/TE 47.47 ppg, 4^th SPEC 14.08 ppg, 4^th

Many people’s hot tips for the Owl last season ended up mired in mediocrity as their big guns just didn’t quite fire like many of us thought they would. Despite a poor QB performance it was the RBs that really hurt the most though. Going into the season with round 1 re-draft RB Jeremy Hill and hot rookie Melvin Gordon looked good but, in hindsight, we should have seen that the group was shallow and when Hill and Gordon were less than stellar it left the Bombermen’s ground game plodding. This year they have Gordon and Hill still in place, with appropriately tempered expectations, but superstar-on-the-rise David Johnson to back that up too. Surely another bright young thing can’t flop to the floor like a suffocating salmon at the Bombermen?

I skipped over the QB situation up there but it’s worth looking over again. The Bombermen go into the season with 6 QBs rostered as of today, two more than any other team. It’s a sure sign that they don’t think there are guys there to rely upon. Matt Ryan has consistently underwhelmed now to the point where he can only be seen as a backup and that leaves the Bombermen choosing between Kirk Cousins and RG3; both with huge potential but neither is a sure thing. Cousins should be an improvement over Ryan though and RG3 still has the potential for gold dust. The Bombermen will have to be careful not to fall into the Mangboob trap of tinkering too much though and PLOBbing themselves out of a lot of points.

Despite performing the best of the units mentioned already, the Bombermen’s receivers also have to be classified as a disappointment in 2015. Kelvin Benjamin never saw the field, AJ Green didn’t live up to his usual stellar standards, Brandin Cooks took half a season to get going and Jordan Matthews dropped, tipped and fumbled his ceiling away. With the exception of Matthews, all of those guys should be much better this year and the addition of Eric Decker in free agency brings some week-to-week stability to the unit. With the likes of Ty Montgomery, De’Anthony Thomas and Chris Conley backing up though the Bombermen have to hope that their WRs stay healthy. At TE Greg Olsen keeps on rolling and must be considered the #2 fantasy player at his position going forward.

Trending up

DEFENCE

79.38 ppg, 5^th best in league

DL 25.09 ppg, 4^th
LB 23.17 ppg, 8^th
DB 31.12 ppg, 3^rd

Looking at the Bombermen’s defence last season you would probably have had it down as average and that is how they performed. Ben Hendy spent big on the D line in the season, bringing in Aaron Donald and it paid off as the line clawed its way up to 4^th in the league by the end of the season. The procurement of Donald was just as well really as there was little to speak of outside him one Cameron Wake went down. This season sees Connor Barwin move down to DE and explosive rookie Noah Spence offers some potential at the same spot. You don’t have to imagine much though to see one injury to Donald leaving this unit producing bottom tier numbers.

The LB group wasn’t so much bad as it was lacking an elite talent. Ryan Shazier was the B-men’s top scoring LB and he was LB26 for the season in terms of production. Barwin, Sean Lee and Clay Matthews offered a solid presence but not much of a ceiling. This year the picture is much the same, if not worse with Barwin’s move to DE. Hendy will need to hope that Willie Young’s sack numbers continue to rise and that Clay Matthews’ move back to OLB kicks up his point ceiling. Sean Lee and Elvis Dumervil are fragile presences to rely on though and there is a question about how long Julius Peppers can reasonably keep going at an elite NFL level.

The defensive backs produced well last season and they’re almost entirely all in place still for this season. You wouldn’t want to bet serious money on a group of corners and safeties producing with any consistency but there’s no reason to think that they will be worse so you have to consider this area the strength of the D.

Trending down

OVERALL

183.20 ppg, 5^th best in league

Barring another clean sweep of disappointment, the Bombermen have to be better on offence this season. On paper their starting lineup is excellent but I am concerned about the depth behind it. The same could be said of the defence except that, DT and DB excluded, I would say the starting lineup is average. If this team is going to challenge they’re going to need their big names to produce and to stay on the field but I worry that the teams around them have strengthened more than Hendy’s men have.

Champions of the Sun

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

122.17 ppg, best in league

QB 16.52 ppg, 9^th RB 35.13 ppg, 2^nd WR/TE 56.31 ppg, 1^st SPEC 14.21 ppg, 3^rd

When you have the best offence in the league, where do you look to improve? Well, the stats would tell you to look at your QBs who averaged out at replacement level for the season. There were a couple of games that Roethlisberger left injured that influences that but Max Cubberley was lucky that Carson Palmer’s poor numbers didn’t come in the regular season as they might have cost him a couple of wins. Will they be better in 2016? Palmer is gone so it really all depends on Ben Roethlisberger’s health. If he plays 16 games then they probably will but if he goes down injured it becomes Joe Flacco or Paxton Lynch calling the shots and things could get ugly.

A triple combination of Latavius Murray, Thomas Rawls and DeAngelo Williams really brought home the bacon for the Champions last season as they scored consistently well through the year to prop up the team. Rawls is gone for the coming season but Murray and the Bell/Williams tandem should still be top performers. Behind them Cubberley would have been hoping Jay Ajayi would provide depth but Arian Foster seems to have taken the starting job in Miami and so he will be relying on the mercurial talents of Shane Vereen or a rookie breakout from Devontae Booker or Keith Marshall to back-up and that’s not ideal.

Breakout seasons from Allen Robinson, Jordan Reed and DeAndre Hopkins led to the Champions’ receivers plowing a furrow through most opposing defences last season, scoring nearly 9 points more per week than the 3^rd placed unit. John Brown, Mike Evans, Travis Kelce and the late addition of Eric Decker really reinforced the strength of this group and it’s no surprise that they topped the scoring charts. Cubberley took the somewhat perplexing decision to move Allen Robinson on in the off-season though, ostensibly because he couldn’t afford to renew him, and the loss of Decker also makes this unit weaker. The Champions are gambling on Mike Evans to bounce back and replace Allen Robinson’s production and have also brought in Golden Tate to shore things up. Reed and Kelce are still present at TE in one of the best TE tandems in the league. Expect to see this group fall back to the pack but still be a top producer.

Trending down

DEFENCE

95.05 ppg, best in league

DL 20.68 ppg, 6^th
LB 35.89 ppg, 1^st
DB 38.48 ppg, 1^st

If the offence was the best in the league by a length, the defence was best in the league by a country mile, averaging nearly 12 points per week more than the unit in 2^nd. The biggest reason for this was a surprisingly huge production from the DBs. The Champions don’t roster a lot at this position but Reshad Jones and Kurt Coleman were both top 10 safeties and Josh Norman, Adam Jones and Marcus Williams were all top 10 cornerbacks. Every member of that secondary is back this season but the fickle nature of the position means that Cubberley cannot count on that production continuing. Norman is in a new spot, Jones is a year older and Coleman’s supporting cast has diminished. They should still be good but you wouldn’t want to bet on them being the best.

If secondary was the strength of the D then the line was the weakness. Marcell Dareus is a fantasy bust and Robert Quinn played half a season at best, leaving the Champions without their top two earners on the line. Thankfully Cubberley struck gold on the wire with Tom Johnson from Minnesota and a mid-season trade for Olivier Vernon made up for the loss of Quinn. The line should be stronger in 2016. Cubberley drafted three rookie DTs and, although it looks like Tom Johnson will still lead the line into the season, he can hope that by week 9 he may have more options there. At DE though Robert Quinn is back and has been joined by the newly re-classified Khalil Mack. Add Robert Ayers (#8 DE by average weekly points), Olivier Vernon, Calais Campbell, Leonard Williams and a healthy Dante Fowler Jr. to the mix and, frankly, it all looks a bit silly.

In a reverse-Chandler Jones though, the line’s gain is the linebackers’ loss as Khalil Mack’s re-classification leaves the Champions’ #1 LB corps light. Jamie Collins, Navorro Bowman and Anthony Barr are back but Justin Houston may or may not play this year. There is scarily little depth present at this position at the moment and Cubberley will have to look to address that before the season starts otherwise this unit will see a serious drop off.

Trending down

OVERALL

217.21 ppg, best in league

Although both sides of this team are trending down I still think the Champions will be one of the better teams in the league. Cubberley has leveraged some of his potential to repeat to try and build for longevity a bit through the draft and that will see the team drop to the pack but hopefully stay bobbing near the top, hunting for the playoffs.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dynarules

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

109.08 ppg, 4^th best in league

QB 19.94 ppg, 4^th RB 30.00 ppg, 5^th WR/TE 45.88 ppg, 5^th SPEC 13.25 ppg, 5^th

After a slow start to the season that saw Kelkowski start 1-4 they really rallied at the right time and made a strong, late run to the playoffs. Looking at their scores it’s a story of consistency across the board being just top-half in every category. This would seem to tell the tale of an offence with few weaknesses but perhaps lacking in top-end but in fact it was more a case of top-end talent not performing at a top-end level for one reason or another. At RB Mark Ingram only played half a season and Arian Foster managed less than that. DeMarco Murray was trapped in a nightmare and TJ Yeldon was defeated by game script. Despite all of that though they put up good numbers and gave Kelkowski a solid floor every week. This season Murray is in a better spot but Foster a worse. Ingram is still going to be top 5 when fit and TJ Yeldon has gone from being flummoxed by game script to being flummoxed by Chris Ivory. Pretty much status quo at Kelkowski.

QB is a tale of a jaguar. Well, not just a jaguar but El Jaguar. Blake Bortles ascent into the stratosphere of premiere QBs was a thing of beauty and timed to perfection to help Kelkowski as Romo and Kaepernick both finally gave up any pretence of fantasy relevance. This season they have a little more depth behind them but I have my doubts as to whether El Jaguar will get quite the stats he did last year, if only because the Jags may not be losing quite as much, quite as often (I can’t believe I just put that in black and white).

What was a tremendous WR group for Kelkowski in 2014 took a step back last year as Calvin Johnson got older, Julius Thomas went to Jacksonville and Randall Cobb took a step back. Their numbers were saved by Doug Baldwin’s frankly ludicrous second half of 2015 and Ben Watson coming out of leftfield to be a fantasy TE1. This year Megatron and Watson are gone and Kelkowski are relying on Baldwin to continue his form in order to give them a truly top tier WR and Julius Thomas to stay healthy to produce at TE. Unless they do Kelkowski may find themselves lagging behind the field at receiver.

Trending down

DEFENCE

79.66 ppg, 4^th best in league

DL 14.82 ppg, 9^th
LB 33.81 ppg, 2^nd
DB 31.03 ppg, 4^th

In drafting Kwon Alexander, Preston Smith and Stephone Anthony, did Kelkowski show themselves as IDP draft geniuses or did they just get lucky? Whichever it was, the trio of rookies produced and, alongside wily vets Brandon Marshall and D’Qwell Jackson, contributed to the 2^nd best LB unit in the league. This season they’ve added Jerell Freeman, Dont’a Hightower and Nigel Bradham to strengthen an already powerful unit and should be right up there again.

Kelkowski’s eye for talent seems to apply equally to the secondary too where they had 5 safeties and 3 cornerbacks over 100 points. There has been turnover at CB this off-season but that isn’t necessarily a problem as the position is very volatile. The names Kelkowski have in place offer a lot of potential again and their solid S group from last year is largely intact leaving them with the most strength in depth in the league at this spot.

Where Kelkowski were let down was on the defensive line, a recurring problem for many teams in the league. Everson Griffen did not produce at his 2014 levels and he and Cliff Avril were a pedestrian DE pairing. It was even worse at DT where Malcolm Brown (DT15 but nearly 200 points down on Aaron Donald at #1) was their top scorer. Things look brighter this year with Malik Jackson moving to DT, Jason Pierre Paul having got through an off-season without blowing any more bits of his hands up and Mario Edwards Jr into his second season. The ceiling still looks low on this group but they have a chance to be better than last year.

Steady

OVERALL

188.74 ppg, 3^rd best in league

Although they added a lot of strength in depth to the defence I don’t actually see the ceiling being raised a long way and I’m concerned about the depth on the offensive side of the ball. Kelkowski aren’t as bad as their first half of 2015 but they aren’t as good as their second half of 2015 either and I think they could end up pretty middle of the pack in Tim.

DynaHard With A Vengeance

OFFENCE/SPECIAL TEAMS

115.45 ppg, 2^nd best in league

QB 19.08 ppg, 5^th RB 33.91 ppg, 3^rd WR/TE 47.91 ppg, 3^rd SPEC 14.55 ppg, 1^st

Embroiled in a two horse race with the Champions of the Sun for the best record in the Dbowl for most of the season, Chris Braithwaite denied the fans the Owl they wanted by choking in the semi-final against the Tamworth Two. DynaHarder were strong all over the roster but it’s at WR where their depth really shone from stars like Antonio Brown and TY Hilton to impact youngsters like Sammy Watkins, Allen Hurns and Tyler Lockett. Their 3^rd place finish is perhaps a reflection that a lot of these players are young and a bit inconsistent but more than good enough to put the points up each week. The TE position was a bit of an achilles heel with a bunch of pedestrian options however. Over the summer Chris has engaged “win now” mode, trading away youngsters and picks for Dez Bryant to attempt to move from 3^rd to 1^st. The Hards have more than enough depth to take the hit though and looks stronger than ever in this department for 2016 although if Martellus Bennett isn’t a big part of the New England offence they may be light at TE again.

A power couple of Jamaal Charles and Todd Gurley made sure that Chris’ RBs held up their end of the bargain too. Jeremy Langford got a welcome boost by Matt Forte’s injury and Alfred Morris proved his usual dependable if unexciting self in Washington. This season the outlook isn’t so rosy. Todd Gurley is still a stud but there are doubts about Jamaal Charles’ role, Jeremy Langford’s competence and Alfred Morris has become a back-up in Dallas, albeit one with a huge ceiling if Ezekiel Elliott goes down. The rest of Chris’ selection consists of questionable rookie picks (Wendell Smallwood, Kenyan Drake) and handcuffs (Charcandrick West and Benny Cunningham). It’s still not difficult to envisage a scenario in which this unit produces at a top level but it’s far from guaranteed.

At QB Chris rode on the back of a good season for Eli Manning for most of the year before making a trade to bring in Tom Brady to prevent the usual post-season choke (not much luck there). Before Brady’s arrival the group was at a low-end QB1 level and that’s probably still where it is. The future looks a little better if Stafford can maintain his form of the second half of last season but Chris may well be looking around again as the trade deadline looms trying to find that extra bit of quality.

Steady

DEFENCE

83.58 ppg, 2^nd best in league

DL 27.43 ppg, 3^rd
LB 29.76 ppg, 4^th
DB 26.39 ppg, 6^th

It was a strong effort all round in 2015 from DynaHarder, led by the D-line where the force of nature that is JJ Watt continued to dominate and Ziggy Ansah’s potential started to pay off with a 14.5 sack season. The line was kept from dominating truly by mediocre options at DT with Brandon Williams and Johnathan Hankins and that situation is the same going into 2016. Ansah and Watt are still present too and Sheard and Ninkovich offer decent depth behind. If I had to pick one unit on any team to perform almost identically to last season it would be Chris Braithwaite’s D-Line.

In 2015 injuries to Kiko Alonso, Terrell Suggs and Jadeveon Clowney left the Hards looking a little thin at LB but a trade for Thomas Davis mid-season took care of that and, ably supported by CJ Mosely and Von Miller, the group started to put up good numbers. Those three are all back this season and Deone Bucannon has been re-designated as an LB, giving Braithwaite an excellent starting four. Jadeveon Clowney has the potential to put up big numbers too but beyond those 5 players there’s little else here. It would take a lot of bad luck to unsettle this group in 2016 though.

DynaHarder’s secondary was run-of-the-mill last season and, for 2016, they’ve lost their top 2 safeties with Walter Thurmond no longer on the roster and Bucannon moved to LB. Chris will be hoping to cover that gap with free agent signing Harrison Smith and Thurmond’s replacement in Philly, Rodney McLeod. Smith has top 10 pedigree but time will tell if McLeod or rookie Keanu Neal can step up. At CB Damarious Randall is coming into his 2^nd year in Green Bay after a good first season and you know that teams will throw at Delvin Breaux all day long.

Steady

OVERALL

199.03 ppg, 2^nd best in league

On both Offence and Defence it looks like more of the same for Chris Braithwaite’s Dyna Hard. Even if his corps of running backs isn’t as robust as last year that’s compensated for by a top-heavy WR unit and a defence that looks as steady as they come as a top-line group. If you were wanting to point to a weakness then you could say that DynaHard may struggle for production at TE week-on-week but, really, they should be able to get by.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 4

Weekly Stats

Peter vs. Tim Watch

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 2

Reality Bites

Is It Indicative?

Weekly Stats

Weekly Peter vs Tim Watch

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 1

Stew’s Pot Luck – Don’t Take Offence, It’s The Offensive Previews

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Pre-Season Tim Preview

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