Thoughts on Trading in Dynasty

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There have been a number of trades in the DynaBowl now, several of which have been seized on for their possibly lopsided nature (including one I have been involved in), while I am also aware of a number of trade offers or negotiations made which, to my mind haven’t always offered fair value. This isn’t malicious but I do think expectations may be off in the value of some players (and draft picks for that matter). Ultimately, we GMs value our players and picks however we value them and we are quite entitled to do that. If we can find someone willing to pay a price then that is what whatever we were selling was worth. But these are not houses and players and picks are not traded for money. They are traded for one another. It should be easier to evaluate the value of the component pieces. I’m writing the following from my own perspective, to let you know how I value players. This may help if you want to negotiate for one of my players, or it may help you in your own valuations when it comes to dealing with other people. Or it may be something you really don’t care about.

So there are 5 factors I consider in the value of a player:

  • Age
  • Health
  • Past production
  • Situation
  • Contract

These all contribute to a bottom line of what the player’s future production may be. Well, except the contract.

So, taking those one at a time.

Age. This is dynasty so while the right now matters, so does building for the future. Younger players are valued over older players. Running back value will start to fall in the late 20s and will probably fall off a cliff in their 30s. Frank Gore is the exception not the rule for the longevity of a productive RB career. Wide receivers on the other hand tend to stay relevant until their early 30s, but from 32 onwards there’s the risk of terminal decline. Generally speaking, if a player has 3 years until they hit these threshold ages, I’m not going to factor it into the cost. A lot changes in 3 years in dynasty and in the NFL, so as long as I feel assured I’m getting 3 years minimum out of a player, I won’t really change my value.

Health. We all know that the NFL can be brutal, but some players seem better placed to make it through a season unscathed (*cough* Andrew Luck). As this is about missing games, I’ll factor in suspensions as part of ‘health’ overall. So, what are the chances the player misses games? Are they above the baseline based on history? Ultimately, anyone can get injured and miss a game here or there, but has the player made a habit of it? Compare Arian Foster to Marshawn Lynch. Regardless of anything else, Foster is always going to be valued slightly lower because he has shown himself to be more injury prone. Josh Gordon’s value, likewise, is never going to be the same as Julio Jones, because he has the suspensions hanging over his head and one more strike and he could be out of the league, no matter if he comes back (eventually) to put up back-to-back league leading seasons.

Past Production. While you’d instinctively say that this is key, you’d not always be right and that’s because of rookies and potential. But yes, what a player has done before is a good indicator of what they will do again. However, this is more so at some positions than others. I’ve looked into consistency of production from year to year and some positions are significantly more volatile than others. RBs are more volatile than WRs, for example. Cornerbacks? Horribly unreliable. Some of that lack of consistency at RB is undoubtedly down to the greater likelihood of injury at the position. But I need to look at how likely a player is to be able to repeat what’s gone before – DeMarco Murray is a great example. He has had one great season but how much was him and how much was the next category, situation? And what about his health? Hasn’t he almost fallen apart previously? There are plenty of players who have turned out to be one season wonders, so while a breakout season is great, I’ll pay more if there’s a longer record of good performance.

Counter to that, of course, is the rookie or sophomore player. There’s nothing (in the way of NFL performance) to go on with the former while the latter could have got lucky and the league might catch up with him. That obviously takes evaluation and can be very personal. Some people may see Kelvin Benjamin’s rookie year as the floor to his future performance, others may say that it won’t get much better than that. Neither is right or wrong – it’s just personal

Situation. This is mainly relevant if something is significantly different from previous seasons, or if it’s about a draft pick’s chances after landing somewhere in the draft. Jordy Nelson has done well in Green Bay, he’s still in Green Bay, everyone else relevant is still in Green Bay, our evaluation can tick all the boxes and move on. Where situation really matters in an evaluation is where the player is on a new team, or the team has a new coach or quarterback or competing player. Or perhaps last year the offensive line was really unlucky and injured the whole time so the RB didn’t get much in the way of yards before first contact, but the line has now been upgraded and is fitter so the RB might be undervalued because his situation is better than it was for last year’s performance. All sorts of ways to evaluate this.

Contract. This is – not an afterthought exactly – but a lesser consideration. For now. In future years when bigger name players come up for free agency because their teams can’t afford the renewals, this will be a bigger issue, but right now this has not proved to be a major concern. Obviously if I am looking to trade for a player I need to make sure I can afford them and whether the contract is a fair valuation on the talent of the player. Likewise, how the guaranteed money has been spread out (is it frontloaded so the player gets cheaper – which can be changed post trade of course) because the figure on MFL isn’t necessarily a good guide to the cost of the player over the course of the contract.

Other leagues have pointed out ‘salary dump’ trades which may be a thing we come to in the future. This is where a player is on too high of a contract and it is hurting his team’s chances. Rather than take a hit by releasing the player, the team trades the player to a team with loads of cap space as well as a second player that is cheap and has some value – eg Crippled Underperforming Veteran ($55)  and Cheap Highly-Rated Prospect ($2) both get traded from Team A to Team B, with nothing going in reverse. What Team A is getting for this deal is cap space, which is a legitimate return, while team B gets the prospect as well as losing a chunk of cap space. I am led to believe this genuinely happens in the NBA.

Balancing A Trade

So those are the factors to consider, but how does one balance a trade? You have to consider the ceiling and the floor of the players involved and assess the likely returns and the context of where a player is going. An older player with only 1 or 2 seasons of good production left may be a valuable final piece to a team challenging for titles but be worth next to nothing to a rebuilding team, for whom 2 years of good production will be over before they stand a chance of competing. You’re unlikely to find a perfect balance between 2 players, so instead it’s about trade offs – Team A loses X but gains Y – that may be losing guaranteed performance but gains the potential for a higher level of performance sometime down the line, or perhaps loses an average player in a good situation but gains a player with better historical performance who has now moved to a worse situation.

But often to balance a deal there needs to be some kind of exchange of draft picks. Draft picks are a flexible currency that can fill any gap, be it by an exchange – eg swapping a 2nd round pick for a 3rd – or complete handover of a pick. Where you might not be able to find a player on your roster that a) has the appropriate level of worth to balance things out and b) that fills a position or role of need on your opponent, a draft pick can be the perfect make-weight.

How I Value a Draft Pick

And here is the nub of the issue. Let’s get some basics out of the way first. A pick in future drafts is worth less than a pick in the current/next draft. Why? Because you’re effectively paying interest on the pick because the person receiving it doesn’t get to use it for a year – you’re paying for the trade on Hire Purchase (H.P.) rather than in cash upfront. The general rule in the NFL is that a future pick is worth a round less than one in the current draft – e.g. to buy a 2nd round pick now you must pay a 1st round pick next year. The DynaBowl allows you to trade picks two years in advance (so picks in the 2017 draft in 2015) and I wouldn’t knock a 2017 pick back another round, personally, but the one round rule is pretty fair.

There is a second reason for the deflation of value of future picks though and that is you don’t know where they will end up in the draft. Which is more valuable in a 10 team league – the 1.06 in 2015 or a 2016 first? The 1.06 because you know where it is. That 2016 first could be 1.01 but it could also be 1.10. You can project based on the team where you think it might end up but bad teams can do well and good teams badly so that will only get you so far. As such, even a team I might project to get a high pick in 2016 I would ask for more than the 2016 first for my 1.06. Then you factor in the H.P. nature of using next year’s picks and I might also be wanting a 3rd/4th round pick for losing out on my first now.

As for equating a player with a pick, I’ll try to talk you through a few of my players and the kind of value I would place on them:

AJ Green – 3-4 first round picks

Green is one of the elite WRs in the NFL. The above price is generic first round picks rather than specific positions – if I had a sense of where they might fall I could specify whether it was 3 or 4. If I knew they were the 1.01, 1.02 and 1.03 in the next draft, that would do it. If they were spread over a couple of years drafts and projected being mid-to-late round picks then I’d want 4 (that’s if I’d sell at all).

My thinking behind this kind of price is that, despite a poor year last year (dogged by a foot injury), Green is one of a select group of players who should put up top 10, if not top 5, performance at his position for the next 3-5 years. The chances of me finding a player in the first round of the draft who can put up elite levels of performance consistently are slim, even with top 3 picks. There aren’t many of these players and if there were they wouldn’t be called ‘elite’. Having several shots in the first round certainly won’t guarantee me a like-for-like replacement but it should mean I grab several players who will be meaningful contributors.

Because this is all picks and working on the assumption that I won’t get to use some or all of those picks before the next season there’s an H.P. element to this valuation too. I would have these picks but they would no longer contribute to my points in the next season (or seasons if some of those picks stretch to 2017). That’s another reason the number of picks is so high.

Kelvin Benjamin – 1.02-1.04

Benjamin has one season under his belt, so has a long time to go in the NFL and in the DynaBowl. He was one of three rookie WRs to make it to 1,000 yards, something which is usually a pretty rare feat. He is the primary WR in a team with a pretty strong QB (whatever you think of Cam, this isn’t like having the Jets or Bills QB throwing him the ball). He is a player we know can produce decent numbers in the NFL but equally there are a few red flags on him that suggest he’s not that likely to join the group that features Green, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown etc. As such the assumption at this point would be that he represents the middle ground of what you would expect from a top tier draft pick – he’s not a bust but will probably settle just outside the elite guys. He is a solid WR.

The upside of selling at this price is that you could draft someone who does become one of the elite players. The downside is that you could draft a bust (for example, Justin Blackmon or Trent Richardson). Trading for the pick would be a bold move in that you’re willing to take the gamble.

In the latest draft, I would have put Benjamin ahead of Parker and behind White and Cooper, placing him between 1.03 and 1.04 in the DynaBowl draft as it turned out, but the 1.02-1.04 cost is meant to be more generic.

Andre Ellington – 1.09-2.01

Ellington still has a lot of potential, but he was also a little too injury prone in 2014 and, with the drafting of David Johnson, has a threat on his own team. He’s an exciting pass-catching running back but may well become part of a committee. That doesn’t mean he can’t be effective and useful in fantasy though. The end of the first round/beginning of the second is a place where there’s a lot more risk than at the top of the first. Ellington has shown he can do it in the NFL, when fit, but has also raised question marks and risks. if we were looking at what he’d shown in 2013 he’d probably be a fraction lower than the Benjamin valuation but he’s dropped back now.

Some people are going to be lower on him and would never pay this price, and that’s fine, but some are going to see the upside and be happy to pay this. If the league isn’t as high in general a price for sale, might have to be a bit lower.

It’s at this kind of level that valuations tend to become more varied from one owner to the next.

Michael Floyd – 2.02-2.06

Floyd hasn’t suffered injuries, he’s just ended up as a pretty bog-standard lead-off receiver. Nothing special. Will do a job as the 3rd or 4th receiver in a Dynabowl line-up. 2014 had been touted as the year he would break out and it never happened, at least in part down to the multiple injuries at QB in Arizona, but also due to John Brown coming out of nowhere. He could still go big but it’s looking less and less likely.

Terrance Williams – low 3rd/high 4th round pick

Williams now seems defined as an average WR2 in Dallas which means that in fantasy terms he might be handy as a bye-week fill in or in case of injuries. He’ll have the occasional 100 yard game and will probably grab somewhere between 3 and 6 TDs a season, but he’s probably not a reliable every-week starter.

To be honest, he’s probably not going to get traded directly for a pick, but Williams might be the kind of makeweight who gets packaged into a deal and this is the kind of value I’d associate with him were I to deal him.

Josh Huff – low 3rd/high 4th round pick

Huff is kind of the opposite of Williams. He’s a guy who’s done next to nothing so far but is an interesting prospect. He’s supposed to be well liked in Philly and the Chip Kelly offense gets (some) people excited. Huff is the kind of player a lot of GMs like to stash because he might breakout. There’s a low chance but, the theory goes, if he does breakout he could go big. Part of being a dynasty GM is being primed for when undervalued players blow-up and taking advantage. Huff could be one of those guys. Or he could be nothing and be out of the league in 2 years.

Andre Williams – 4th round pick

Williams came into the Giants as a back-up to Rashard Jennings and was called into duty when Jennings unsurprisingly got injured early in the season. He clocked up over 850 all-purpose yards and 7 touchdowns, though didn’t look great while doing it. He was fine, but nothing more. The 4th round is where back-up running backs were drafted recently (a few at the end of the third round too). These are players unlikely to see much playing time, but if the guy in front of them goes down they will likely take on the workload. The value is probably higher to the person holding the lead back, ie Rashard Jennings, in this case, than anyone else, but the value is still there. Especially for a player backing up someone injury prone.

Mario Williams – ???

This is tough. I genuinely have no idea where I’d value him. At DE he was a consistent top 5 player and the drop off after him was fairly steep, but at LB I don’t know that he’s as valuable. Equally, in the new Rex Ryan system (see situation above), I have no idea if he will generate as many fantasy points. I wouldn’t want to let him go but there’s always the chance an offer could come in that would make me sit up and think.

I put this in just to illustrate that you can’t always put a price on everyone’s head.

 

Does it matter if people’s valuations differ?

No. They are bound to differ. One person will look at a player and see all the risks while another will see all the potential. And, as I said before, a veteran with a 2 year window is of no use to someone rebuilding but is loads of use to someone challenging for the title.

However…

Players sold for significantly under market value present two problems for the league – the small picture and the big picture.

The small picture is that every trade that occurs establishes precedent and influences negotiations that happen in future trades. “I’m not paying Z because he only paid X to get Y”, “If A is worth B then C must be worth D”. While one or two trades might not have an impact, the more that occur, the harder it will be to construct a fair trade.

Likewise, the GMs involved in selling off players or picks under market value may find themselves a target for unbalanced trade offers looking to take advantage of them which could lead them to misinterpret value or to back away from trading. Likewise, other players may stop trading if they can’t see a clear (and big) win for them in the trade. Ideally trades should give each side a win, but it’s inevitable that each trade can be interpreted differently and so could be seen as a win for either side by different GMs. If GMs get used to seeing trades in which there’s a clear (and sizeable) winner, they may not wish to work on producing a balanced trade, insisting on the big-win-or-nothing approach.

And then there’s the bigger picture which is that lopsided trades inevitably lead to the significant weakening of one team and strengthening of another, altering the competitive balance of the league. At first this should be part of the ebb and flow but if it becomes a consistent trend my concern would be that one or two teams could become very strong and one or two could become cut off at the bottom. The ongoing risk from this is that the GMs at the bottom decide they don’t want the challenge of turning their team around and quit. Likewise, GMs in the middle could get despondent if one or two teams become particularly dominant based on lopsided trading.

I don’t think this is an issue now. I think we’re all new to this and minimal trading has gone on before. Everyone is slowly making their way through it and learning how to get the most out of what they have. This post wasn’t to castigate. It was supposed to offer an insight into how I value players and provide something to think about how others do. You may agree or disagree with my values. That’s fine.

However, I think that as this is a friendly league rather than one with a bunch of internet randoms (though you could argue we are friendly internet randoms, of course) we shouldn’t try to take advantage of each other. Too much. Everyone wants to be the guy who gets one over on another owner but given we all have different experience levels and have done differing amounts of research, there’s always room for a little rip-off.

If you’re not sure if you’re getting good value in a trade, there are resources. If you google dynasty fantasy football you can find plenty of sites (I’m not going to hand this to you on a plate – find the URLs yourself). Check out ADP (average draft position) information to get a sense of how valuable players are considered in general. There are forums you can ask questions. If necessary, and if you feel comfortable doing so, ask a fellow league member, someone you feel you can trust. I am happy to offer my services and I am sure a few others would too, though whether you trust us is a different matter.

What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Defence)

League Business Power Rankings Stat Attacks No Comments

This is the part Manboob has been waiting for – the safeties (and the rest of the defence). So without further ado, let’s get straight into it…

While it might seem sensible to go deeper and consider the 2nd and 3rd rounds, it’s ultimately too low a contract in the third round and the range of players it brings in makes it a bit of a crap shoot to go that low and hope for anything more useful to arise from it.

Defensive Ends

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01 $20, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Mario Williams		 171.50
145.00
157.75		 158.1 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.02 $19, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014		 Cameron Wake
Greg Hardy
Robert Quinn		 165.75
144.50
155.75		 155.3 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07		 $18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 5 2012
2013
2014		 John Abraham
Muhammed Wilkerson
Jerry Hughes		 164.50
138.85
137.50		 147.0 Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
1.08 $13, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Antonio Smith
Cameron Jordan
Everson Griffen		 147.75
138.00
131.75		 139.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Carlos Dunlap
Chandler Jones
Demarcus Ware		 147.15
137.25
130.05		 138.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.10 $11, 4 years 9 2012
2013
2014		 Michael Bennett
Carlos Dunlap
Carlos Dunlap		 133.75
132.75
125.50		 130.7 Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years		 10 2012
2013
2014		 Jared Allen
Jared Allen
Calais Campbell		 132.50
130.75
118.80		 127.4 Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
Trent Cole (127.88)
Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 12 2012
2013
2014		 Mario Williams
Osi Umenyiora
Chris Clemons		 131.25
124.80
113.75		 123.3 Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014		 Cameron Jordan
Rob Ninkovich
Charles Johnson		 130.50
119.25
113.00		 120.9 Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
Kevin Carter (115.09)
Cameron Wake (114.91)
Cliff Avril (114.87)

Financially speaking you’d be paying a defensive end more than everyone except Quinn and Watt, so at the very top of the draft you’d be looking for a seriously talented player and any end taken in the first two rounds should be a viable starter over a 4 year period.  One thing to consider when taking an end is that this is a position where the best players have good longevity – Peppers, Allen, Suggs, Watt, Freeney are guys who’ve been good since they joined the league and they have been good for a long time since.

Defensive Tackles

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years		 1 2012
2013
2014		 Geno Atkins
Kyle Williams
Ndamukong Suh		 254.00
204.50
201.50		 220 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
1.05 $16, 4 years 2 2012
2013
2014		 Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Aaron Donald		 197.00
180.25
188.00		 188.4
1.06
1.07		 $15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 3 2012
2013
2014		 Nick Fairley
Nick Fairley
Sen’Derrick Marks		 150.25
172.00
177.50		 166.6 Reggie White (173.41)
1.08 $13, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014		 Henry Melton
Ndamukong Suh
Marcel Dareus		 132.50
152.00
166.00		 150.2 Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
1.09 $12, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 Gerald McCoy
Marcel Dareus
Gerald McCoy		 132.25
134.00
157.75		 141.3 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
1.10 $11, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Kyle Williams
Jason Hatcher
Johnathan Hankins		 132.25
126.75
131.25		 130.1 Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
Chandler Jones (131.5)
Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammad Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 7 2012
2013
2014		 Dwan Edwards
Cullen Jenkins
Stephen Paea		 112.75
122.00
127.25		 120.7 Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammed Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 Vince Wilfork
Sen’Derrick Marks
Kyle Williams		 111.00
118.25
121.20		 116.8 Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
Sheldon Richardson (117.88)
Bryant Young (115.77)
Tony McCoy (115.1)
Vonnie Holliday (113.99)
Jim Flanigan (113.97)

There’s a little bit of cross-over between tackles and ends, but basically any pick in the first two rounds would need to be a clear starter over the four years of their contract, even at the back end of the second round. Guys who’ve been at the top of the scoring in recent years don’t feature in the list of rookies, and that suggests that even the best DTs don’t necessarily perform well from their first days in the league. All told, spending even a late second round pick on a DT is going to be a stretch.

Linebackers

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Lawrence Timmons
Navorro Bowman
Clay Matthews		 168.25
198.55
156.50		 174.4 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
1.03 $18, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 Zach Brown
Jerrell Freeman
Connor Barwin		 165.10
185.05
155.25		 168.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.04 $17, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014		 Demarcus Ware
Alec Ogletree
Jamie Collins		 164.75
173.55
155.25		 164.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.05 $16, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 Rob Ninkovich
Daryl Smith
Lavonte David		 155.50
165.10
146.50		 155.7 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
1.06 $15, 4 years 11 2012
2013
2014		 Justin Houston
DeAndre Levy
Junior Galette		 139.25
149.90
130.25		 147.2 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
1.07
1.08
1.09		 $14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years		 14 2012
2013
2014		 Lance Briggs
Danny Trevathan
Terrell Suggs		 137.30
144.95
130.00		 139.8 Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
1.10 $11, 4 years 15 2012
2013
2014		 Ryan Kerrigan
Vontaze Burfict
Luke Kuechly		 137.30
144.95
130.00		 137.4 Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 17 2012
2013
2014		 Shaun Phillips
Ryan Kerrigan
Brandon Marshall		 136.50
143.75
121.00		 133.8 Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
2.05
2.06
2.07		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years		 19 2012
2013
2014		 Rob Jackson
Brian Orakpo
Bruce Irvin		 132.65
136.65
116.40		 128.6 Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
2.08
2.09		 $8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 21 2012
2013
2014		 Derrick Johnson
Derrick Johnson
Danny Lansanah		 128.25
134.40
113.50		 125.4 Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 22 2012
2013
2014		 Luke Kuechly
Trent Cole
Jason Worilds		 127.50
133.50
113.00		 124.7 Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
LaMarr Woodley (119.65)

Let’s face it, you’d have to be a little nuts to blow a top 10 pick on a Linebacker, not that they’re not capable of delivering value for that, but they lack the upside of an offensive player. All of which said, a second round linebacker would be looking at producing a starter’s performance over 4 years, but as a 2nd or 3rd best on your team in that role, and unlike DTs there’s plenty of recent comparators to suggest there’s value to be had. With more teams transitioning to 3-4 defences, outside guys playing as pass rushing ends can represent good value with DE-type performance at an LB price and as with DEs, there’s enough in the comparative rookies to suggest that a good LB is a decent long-term option at the position who can produce for years. Unlike ends however there’s not really the late round breakout stars, if they’re not taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft then they quickly drop into fantasy irrelevance.

Cornerbacks

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years		 N/A N/A
1.06 $15, 4 years 1 2012
2013
2014		 Aqib Talib
Brandon Boykin
Charles Tillman		 234.60
159.48
140.45		 178.2 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
1.07
1.08
1.09		 $14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years		 2 2012
2013
2014		 Richard Sherman
Deangelo Hall
Kyle Fuller		 204.20
157.65
132.35		 164.7
1.10 $11, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Tim Jennings
Richard Sherman
Vontae Davis		 178.35
151.95
130.15		 153.5 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Patrick Peterson
Alterrun Verner
Brent Grimes		 159.85
142.28
128.00		 143.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 6 2012
2013
2014		 Janoris Jenkins
Tramon Williams
Joe Haden		 155.55
135.50
123.75		 138.3 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Casey Hayward
Captain Munnerlyn
Jason McCourty		 142.85
130.85
123.50		 132.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
Kyle Fuller (129.65)

Well, this is painful. There’s no corner in the league on more than a top 5 pick, and you’re looking at any corner taken in the first two rounds being a bad value pick who’s going to have to immediately produce great numbers, and even at the end of the second round you’re looking at guys who’d be in the top 5 rookies of the last 20 years. One thing to note, as with the linebacker position, there’s a pretty clear drop in the performance of players picked after the first two rounds, and despite the well-known stories about Sherman and the Seahawks finding great backs cheap in the late rounds, this is the exception rather than the rule, and in the case of Sherman a significant exception at that.

Safeties

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02		 $20, 4 years
$19, 4 years		 2 2012
2013
2014		 Jairus Byrd
Troy Polamalu
James Ihedigbo		 155.35
161.35
150.10		 155.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.03 $18, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014		 Reshad Jones
Antrel Rolle
Mike Adams		 144.35
160.80
140.90		 148.7 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07		 $17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years		 4 2012
2013
2014		 Eric Weddle
Michael Mitchell
Glover Quin		 139.60
141.55
139.70		 140.3 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
1.08 $13, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014		 LaRon Landry
William Moore
Rashead Johnson		 135.95
139.35
137.35		 137.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014		 Thomas DeCoud
Earl Thomas
Tashaun Gipson		 132.90
130.85
131.80		 131.9 Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
1.10 $11, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014		 William Moore
TJ Ward
Charles Woodson		 131.35
126.95
124.90		 127.7 Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04		 $10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year		 10 2012
2013
2014		 Danieal Manning
James Ihedigbo
Reggie Nelson		 124.35
123.15
120.90		 122.8 Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
2.05
2.06
2.07		 $9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years		 11 2012
2013
2014		 Morgan Burnett
Charles Woodson
Kemal Ishmael		 123.35
122.30
118.45		 121.4 Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
2.08
2.09		 $8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years		 12 2012
2013
2014		 Major Wright
Eric Weddle
Ryan Mundy		 122.25
118.75
116.95		 119.3 Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014		 Michael Griffin
Aaron Williams
Kendrick Lewis		 122.15
115.80
116.20		 118.1 Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
Anthony Henry (115.88)

Given Manboob’s love of the high-price Safety, it’s not a surprise to see you could just about justify the top pick of the draft on one. That said, it would only be justified if you could pick Ed Reed, who might just be the best Safety in the history of the NFL. Even then, you’re talking about only just justifying the price tag. All of which said, by the end of the second round a safety is not a terrible pick. I personally wouldn’t – the opportunity to get a good DE or DT there is solid, and the spread of players at relatively makeable scores suggest that it wouldn’t be hard to find any Safety to fill a roster gap, but they’re not an unreliable pick and can score reasonably well from the early part of their careers, with less pressure to be a top guy straight away compared to the cornerback market. Of course, it’s entirely possible this is more a reflection of the insanity of the Dynabowl’s safety market, rather than a real value statement.

Ultimately, there’s no real evidence to suggest that selecting a defensive player in even the first round makes a good value pick, any player picked is going to need to justify not just a roster spot, but a regular starting spot in his first couple of years. But, by the middle of the second round, they’re definitely players to start thinking about and at positions like CB, S and Linebacker where the performance of high picks v lower ones suggests NFL teams are pretty handy at drafting players it’s possibly worth considering reaching and over-paying (as long as you aren’t in a terrible cap situation) simply because there’s such a strong correlation, compared to other positions, between draft pick and rookie success.

The Dyna Hard Draft Pick Trade Value Chart is Leaked

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Sources close to the Dyna Hard camp have compiled the following document, said to contain a combination of the thoughts of the team GM, Chris Braithwaite and the results of alleged conversations and emails between Braithwaite and Jimmy Johnson. The veracity of the document is unknown.

Holding the first pick in the draft gets you thinking about trades. That’s what I’ve found anyway. So I used my contacts to get in touch with Jimmy Johnson, creator of the most widely accepted NFL Draft Trade Value chart, to see whether he wants to use his knowledge of the Dynabowl (he’s a big follower – and a massive East Flanders fan) to create a prospective chart for the league as it heads in to its first rookie draft. Being that its out of football season and Johnson’s time isn’t taken up with applying ludicrous amounts of hairspray, the former Cowboys coach was delighted to take up the challenge.

The first issue that Jimmy told me we had was accounting for there only being 10 teams in the league. “Well Jimmy,” I said, “why not just collect the picks in your chart into groups of 3 or 4, and average them out?”.

Jimmy thought this was an interesting idea. “So, the first 3 picks in the NFL draft are worth 3,000, 2,600 and 2,200. That means in the Dynabowl they would be worth a total of 7,800, and an average of 2,600. Good plan. Let’s do it.”

So using this methodology, picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 and 10 of each round were the average of 3 NFL picks. Picks 3, 4, 8 and 9 were average across 4 picks. So here’s the Jimmy produced.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2600 563.33 260 108 42 26.6 13.8
2 1700 530 245 96 39.5 25.4 12.6
3 1375 505 232.5 85 38.25 24 11.2
4 1255 465 212.5 75 36.25 22.8 10
5 1050 430 195 72 34.5 21.4 8.6
6 908.33 400 180 66 33.03 20.2 7.4
7 810 370 165 60 31.8 19 6.2
8 730 325 147.5 53 30.4 17.6 4.8
9 660 305 134 48.5 29.2 16.4 3.6
10 603.33 276 120 45 27.8 15 2.3

 

“I love it! Love it!” exclaimed Jimmy.

I, however, was less enthused. “I’m not so sure Jimmy. This is great, but there’s a problem. The Dynabowl and the NFL aren’t quite equivalent.”

“Well sure,” said Jimmy. “The Dynabowl is far more important. The Super Bowl trophy doesn’t even have an animal on it.”

“Good point Jimmy, but that’s not what I mean. The big issue is that the Dynabowl doesn’t draft offensive linemen. There are roughly 25 core players in an NFL team, but 5 of them are ineligible for the Dynabowl. We need to fix the chart to factor them out.”

“Hmmm. Well, no one notices the big galoots unless they mess up, so I’m in full agreement with the Dynabowl eliminating them. So what do we do?”

“Well Jimmy, the Dynabowl doesn’t use 20% of the players the NFL drafts, so we need to remove 20% of the picks from the chart somehow.”

Jimmy thought for a moment. “No one likes offensive linemen. But don’t tell Larry Allen I said that. He’d eat me. We could just remove the bottom 20% of picks?”

“So from the 224 non-compensatory picks, we’d remove 45 picks? That would mean that our draft includes the first 179 picks in your draft chart?”

“You got it skipper.”

“Skipper? Ok Jimmy. So the Dynabowl draft has 70 picks. 179 into 70 is about 2.5. So that would mean we’d just count down your chart, and do the value of each 2.5 picks.”

“Exactly champ, exactly. Explain it to me?”

“Champ? You know I’m picking first overall, right? So the first 2 picks are worth 3,000 and 2,600. That’s 5,600. The third pick is worth 2,200. We take half of that value… 1,100 Jimmy, stop looking confused. That means the first pick is worth 6,700. The second pick gets that half of the third pick, plus the value of the next two picks (1,800 and 1,700), so its worth 4,600. The third pick is worth the 6th, 7th and half the 8th, so 3,800.”

“Brilliant! Perfect! Those are all definitely numbers. Can you just fiddle around with the rest of the chart for me? That’s how we did it in my Cowboys days – everyone else did the work and I took the credit.”

“We know Jimmy, we know.”

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 6700 1710 955 522.5 238 114.5 79.3
2 4600 1590 905 490 216 108 77.5
3 3800 1480 845 460 204 102 74.3
4 3350 1400 780 427.5 191 100.75 71.7
5 3025 1330 726 397.5 179 97.25 69.3
6 2725 1270 678.5 365 166 94 66.7
7 2400 1205 647.5 338 154 91 64.3
8 2175 1145 615 312 141 87.75 61.7
9 1960 1080 585 288 129 84.75 59.3
10 1840 1020 552.5 262 120.5 81.7 56.7

 

“There you go Jimmy, what do you reckon?”

“That looks great! Brilliant! Fantastic! Jerry will love it.”

“Who is Jerry”? Never mind. It seems fairly sensible. The league kind of agrees that picks below the 2nd round are likely to have minimal value, and it seems to show that to trade up to get a pick in the third you shouldn’t have to pay too much. I think it overvalues the number 1 pick a little bit (which I’m not gonna complain about as the owner of it this year). To go from number 3 to number 1 you’d have to give up your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th round picks. That’s not right. But apart from that it looks great. But then that’s a criticism of your chart in the NFL too.”

“Look kid, this draft value chart thing is hooey. We made it to try to cheat the system, and its seems to have become the system. Every team has different values on picks, and that changes based on who is available at any given pick. Sometimes people will overpay based on this, sometimes people will underpay. Our chart was based on a series of pick trades over a series of years, and its stood up even over different collective bargaining agreements. But only time will tell if its applicable to your league. Quit worrying kid. Now how much am I getting paid for this?”

“Kid? I’m 30. As to money… I’ll just pop out and get it for you.”

 

I wonder if he’s still waiting there?

Scheduling and Relative Strength

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Following on from league schedule chat, I got thinking about the level of luck involved in the schedule and what the chances were of teams getting different amount of wins, considering the number of points they scored each week. It’s important to understand, of course, that just because a team scored a lot of points, it doesn’t mean they could have been consistent winners. If they scored massive amounts in just 3 weeks and at or below average the rest of the season they could look like big time Charlies when actually they were … erm … small time Freddies? Also, some weeks the entire league scored highly so a high score is merely par (weeks 8, 10 and 13 all featured average team scores of 190+), while other weeks the points were low so a high score had the chance to dominate (week 2 had an average score of only 158.7).

The point is that it definitely matters when you score those points, as well as how many of them you score.

So given I have the full weekly scoring available I decided to run some scenarios. In fact, practically every scenario. Sort of. There are some weakness which I am going to acknowledge up front.

So what I did was rank everyone’s score from first to last in the league in each week. From this you can derive the chance of winning in any given week. If you top scored you had a 100% chance of winning. If you were the 5th top scorer you had a 55.55% chance of winning (you could beat 5 teams out of 9 – 5/9 = 55.55%) and thus a 44.44% chance of losing. And so on.

By multiplying your chance of winning in week 1 by your chance of winning in week 2 and so on we can work out the chance of you winning every single game. If we create a list of all possible scenarios (ie every combination of win or lose for every week of the season), we can then work out the likelihood of each scenario. Add up all the scenarios that result in 7 wins and you have the % chance of that outcome.

The caveats:

  1. In week 10 Dyna Hard and Kelkowski had the same score. They didn’t play each other so there was no tie, but this would add a tie into the possible outcomes. This would change the number of scenarios across a 13 week season from 8,192 to 1,594,323. To avoid doing this I have knocked Dyna Hard down by 0.05 points so there’s no tie that week. This means that I slightly under-estimate Dyna Hard’s position in the end results and slightly over-estimate Kelkowski’s, but the difference is minimal.
  2. I have not done this based on feasible schedules that fit with our ‘play your division twice, the other division once’ rules. This is purely done on the basis of how many teams could you beat each week. This means that while it may say a team has a small percentage chance of winning every week or losing every week, this may not actually be the case because that may rely on playing The Sadness or Kelkowski every week.

However, what this does do is provide an analysis of relative strength across the division as well as estimate the role schedule luck played in each team’s performance.

So first off I want to walk you through an example. East Flanders had a 0.13% chance of losing all 13 games in the season. The table below shows the ranking of each weekly points score for the team, the chance of losing in that individual week, and the cumulative chance of losing each week, one after the other:

Score Rank Chance of Losing Cumulative Chance of Losing
Week 1 6 55.56% 55.56%
Week 2 4 33.33% 18.52%
Week 3 10 100.00% 18.52%
Week 4 8 77.78% 14.40%
Week 5 8 77.78% 11.20%
Week 6 7 66.67% 7.47%
Week 7 10 100.00% 7.47%
Week 8 8 77.78% 5.81%
Week 9 9 88.89% 5.16%
Week 10 7 66.67% 3.44%
Week 11 8 77.78% 2.68%
Week 12 2 11.11% 0.30%
Week 13 5 44.44% 0.13%

A decent start and end to the season didn’t cover up a pretty terrible middle.

So doing this for every win/loss combination for every team gives the following table of likely win totals:

Win Expectancy 1

The figures highlighted in bold are the percentage chance the team had of recording the number of victories they actually did record. So Champions of the Sun ended up with 6 wins and there was a 24.75% chance of that happening based on their weekly scores (accepting the caveats listed earlier), while Dyna Hard had just a 9.86% likelihood of getting exactly 5 wins, as they managed across the year.

So for all bar two teams, the chances of ending with the record they ended with was between 22.52% and 29.19%, though only 3 teams ended with the record they were most likely to.

So the next stage is to look at the cumulative win chances – ie adding the percentage chances up as you move along. So each column in the table below shows the chances of winning between zero and n games (n being the number at the top of the column).

Win Expectancy 2

What this is saying is that the higher the cumulative number the luckier you would need to be to get that number of victories, while approximately 50% is where you would expect to be. So in 95.54% of scenarios Here Comes The Brees would win 8 or fewer games and only in 4.46% of scenarios would they win over 8 games. As we can see, there was only a 13.60% chance that Dyna Hard would win 5 or fewer games.

We can also reverse this and produce a table which shows the chances of reaching a minimum number of wins:

Win Expectancy 3

This shows that The Brees had only a 14.66% chance of getting at least the 8 wins they managed, while Dyna Hard were as close to guaranteed as you could reasonably expect to get to hit the 5 wins they did, with over a 96% chance of reaching that level. The Dynasty of Sadness were the second luckiest franchise, with only a 35% chance of getting 5 wins, although they had a better chance of getting 4 wins than East Flanders, while the Champions of the Sun were very lunlucky to register just 6 wins.

So what can we do with all this data? Well, we can use it to create an expected win number. By looking at where the 50% position falls in the above 2 cumulative tables and taking the average of the 2 positions we can see the expected number of wins for each team based on their performance.

Team Expected Wins Exp. Win Rank Actual Wins Diff. % Difference
Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules 8.59 1 8 -0.59 -4.52%
Dynasore Losers 8.34 2 8 -0.34 -2.61%
DynaForOne Firebirds 7.33 3 7 -0.33 -2.50%
Dyna Hard 7.12 4 5 -2.12 -16.27%
Champions of the Sun 6.89 5 6 -0.89 -6.88%
Tamworth Two 6.43 6 6 -0.43 -3.34%
Dynablaster Bombermen 6.11 7 7 0.89 6.88%
Here Comes The Brees 5.88 8 8 2.12 16.30%
East Flanders Dungeoneers 4.18 9 5 0.82 6.31%
The 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness 4.12 10 5 0.88 6.74%

So most teams were within 1 win of where they would be expected to end up, but Dyna Hard and Here Come The Brees were both over 2 wins difference from what their week to week performance merited.

All told I am pleasantly surprised at how little difference the schedule made for most people. This may be a case of there being so few games it’s harder to separate from the mean, but then again, 20% of the league – a not insignificant proportion – were over 2 games different from their expected level.

What can be said at this point is that we don’t really know if this is a problem or not. Will there always be teams who get very lucky or unlucky or was 2014 an anomaly? Should we look to provide a degree of stabilisation to try to get the best performing teams over the course of the season into the playoffs? Or should we embrace randomness?

Kommish Komment Korner (again)

The fact that the match-ups, in a randomly assigned order, can make a large difference to the outcome of the season – something beyond the control of the GM – seems an unfair punishment (or reward) and if something can be done that removes an element of that, while maintaining the excitement of head-to-head match-ups, my view is it should be included.

What we have is not broken, but there are a few cracks in the facade and it would be nice to address those so that we have a league which is both fun and robust. The magic of the cup will remain, regardless, in the playoff stage. What the regular season should at least try to do is ensure that the best teams end up in the playoffs while the worst teams get the best picks in the draft in order to better themselves and make themselves more competitive. In 2014 the playoffs were 3/4 right in that regard, but it’s not as though the 4th part of that equation was a borderline case. Had Dyna Hard come 5th, just behind Champions of the Sun, the issue wouldn’t have been a talking point (and I realise I am the only one talking about it really so you may not consider it one anyway). But I think it is tough to argue that Dyna Hard merit the first pick of the draft ahead of DoS and East Flanders.

I’m not suggesting a revolution, I’m suggesting evolution. The league is one year old and we knew we wouldn’t get things right the first time. We need to adapt to make the league as good and as fair as possible. I don’t want playoffs to be decided based on all-play or total points or anything. We all put in a lot of time and effort and it is better that we have a system that rewards that time and effort and, where appropriate, skill as best as possible.

This won’t change for 2015 and the above analysis will be repeated after the 2015 season to see how different the league was from actual performance. There will then be a vote sometime in the new year about whether we should change the schedule and/or ranking system for teams. Cases will be made and, whatever the outcome, we will move forward, older and allegedly wiser.

What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Offence)

Madness Mock Draft Stat Attacks No Comments

After reading Ian’s piece, and the discussion following it, it occurred to me that one of the things we’ve all be struggling with is understanding what the baseline for success for a #1 or #6 etc pick looks like. Last year’s rookie class was headlined by guys like Odell Beckham Jr and Mike Evans, who both look like bargains, but what about in normal or quiet years. How good does a QB or DE have to be to justify a #1 pick, compared to say an RB or WR? That’s what I’m going to attempt to answer. Continue reading →

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